Rates & Barrels - Correa walks it off, Bryse Wilson delivers a gem, and the Dodgers unravel

Episode Date: October 16, 2020

Eno, DVR and Britt discuss the implications of the Rays and Astros choosing to bullpen their way through Game 5, an unexpected gem from Bryse Wilson, another highly questionable in-game decision involving Clayton Kershaw, and their predictions for the remaining LCS games.  Rundown 1:57 Thoughts on the Rays' Decision to Bullpen Game 5 6:25 Which Relievers Will the Astros Turn to in Game 6? 8:02 How Good is Framber Valdez? 11:53 Final ALCS Predictions 16:20 More Randy Arozarena Facts (courtesy of @smada_bb) 20:11 What Is Driving the Decision-Making Around Pulling Kershaw? 22:10 How Did Bryse Wilson Turn In a Gem? 28:37 The Braves Face the Same Decision as the Rays in Game 5 31:28 Final NLCS Predictions Follow Eno on Twitter: @enosarris Follow Britt on Twitter: @Britt_Ghiroli Follow DVR on Twitter: @DerekVanRiper e-mail: [e-mail] Subscribe to The Athletic for just $1/month: theathletic.com/ratesandbarrels Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

This episode is brought to you by Peloton. Forget the pressure to be crushing your workout on day one. Just start moving with the Peloton Bike, Bike Plus, Tread, Row, Guide, or App. There are thousands of classes and over 50 Peloton instructors ready to support you from the beginning. Remember, doing something is everything. Rent the Peloton Bike or Bike Plus today at onepeloton.ca slash bike slash rentals. All access memberships separate. Terms apply. Welcome to Rates and Barrels, episode number 157, playoff episode number 15.

Yeah, we're getting up there. It's Friday, October 16th. On this episode, we discuss the Astros, or my Astros, as they're now known on this show. While they are incapable of winning the ALCS in six games, they did extend the series another day. Eno and Britt hear footsteps. I know they're worried about their predictions. We'll talk about how that happened. We'll talk about both teams' decision to bullpen their way through game five and what that means for the rest of the series. We'll also talk about the Braves taking a 3-1 lead over the Dodgers. It came with a gem from Bryce Wilson. None of us saw that coming.

And an all-too-familiar pattern from an all-time great. So, Eno, Britt, let's start with the Astros. Rays, plenty of drama. The Astros opened it up with a leadoff homer from George Springer. It ended with a Carlos Correa walk-off, but there were a lot of swings throughout this game, and everything kind of was coming up Rays again because G-Man Choi hit a home run to tie the game in the eight,

enabling the Rays to go from the JV relievers to the varsity closer in Nick Anderson, and it was Anderson who actually served up that game-winning home run to Correa. So things went about as well as they could for the Rays into the late innings, and the Astros actually came out on top. That is not the way this series has been going in previous instances where there's been a toss-up. It seems like just about every bounce possible has gone Tampa Bay's way.

So the good news for the Rays is they have Blake Snell going on regular rest for Game 6. They didn't push him on short rest. We talked about this as one of the options. And now they should have a higher win probability in each of the next two games than if they had thrown Snell in game five and then still found a way to lose. So seeing how the first part of the plan has played out, how do you feel about the Rays' decision to go ahead and bullpen it in game five? I think it could be bad because remember the first two games of this series? We talked about this. They're really evenly matched. The Rays now have rested starters, so do the Astros, and both of those guys pitched really well, right? Now you

get Fromber, now you get McCullers if they force a seven. What's crazy to me is that they're only the fourth team that's been down 3-0 to even force a game six. So I'm not going to say we're getting into 2004 Red Sox territory, but we're kind of getting into 2004 Red Sox territory. And I don't know if this is a game, certainly if the Rays lose, this is a game we're going to look back on and be like, ooh, should they have done something different, right? This seems like it could be the turning point one way or the other. Personally, I loved it because as we've talked about on this podcast, should they have done something different right this seems like it could be the turning point one way or the other personally i loved it because as we've talked about on this podcast the longer the series goes the more drama there is carlos correa who has not admitted it was fun

who is like not yeah like carlos correa has kind of been public enemy number one lately like he doesn't understand why no one likes the astros. He hasn't backed down at all. Keeps saying dumb things in public. Exactly. And he tells Baker, like, Dusty Baker, I'm going to win this game. And he does it. And it just adds to this narrative, right? Like the drama above all else has been terrific. I have to push back a little bit because I would just say that where do you smell?

Right. So like you're saying, like, let's put the the the the foot on the neck right they got they got there three three they used their closer i mean they did it they did all i'm saying is like you you could have used snow used Snell and the same thing could have happened. You know what I mean? And now you have Snell on bed arrest. So if Aaron Slaggers, he got eight outs. If he had given up the homer, then I think I'd be more ready to agree with you.

You know what I mean? Because that would have been where you used Snell. You would have been like, oh, you know what? It's a tight game. Let's throw Snell in there and let's win this. But they used Slagers. They got through it. Nick Anderson could have shut the door down or he didn't.

I mean, he didn't, but I don't know. They kept this as close as they could and they lost and yet they still tomorrow have Snell on regular rest, Diego Castillo rested, and Peter Fairbanks.

He says Pete. Call him Pete. Yeah, it's Pete. Oh, it's Pete. It's Pete. Oh, good to know. But the Astros have their best starter. The Astros have their best pitcher going. He's been their best pitcher. That's okay. I think it might be a low-scoring game, but you still have Snell. The Astros have their best pitcher going. He's been their best pitcher. That's okay. That's okay.

I mean, I think it might be a low-scoring game, but you still have Snell. Everyone's better on more rest. I mean, that's been shown. So you have Snell on regular rest, and you have Diego Castillo and Fairbanks. That together is probably seven innings. On the lower end.

But they made a lot of hard contact against, I know it doesn't show up in the box score, but remember we talked about, man, the Astros should have really tattooed those first two games. They should have had a lot more runs. They had a ton of hard contact against Blake Snell. But I mean, it's not, yeah, it's not Charlie Morton. Morton had the worst.

Right, but Lance McCullers should have also won his. If they force a game seven, I mean, this has already gotten interesting. If they somehow hit Snell in those balls that did not find Holmes, find some Holmes. I think this series was never supposed to be this close. It's true, it's true, it's true. They now have Frambois.

It's true. But look how many people the Astros used. Luis Garcia, Blake Taylor, and only Paredes for five outs. Andre Scrubb, Brooks Raley, Josh James. I mean, like Ryan Presley for four outs. Who do they go to when Frambois is tired tomorrow? They need Frambois to pitch really well to keep that bullpen from being overexposed in game seven. Because they'll have to go to some of those guys again being overexposed in game seven.

Because they'll have to go to some of those guys again after Valdez leaves the game. Some of those guys are absolutely in their small circle of trust, of relievers they want to use. Or win game seven. You can't pitch them in this game and in the Fromber game and in game seven. You're pushing it if you do, for sure. Some of them will fall apart so

you know this is i i still see genius in the race the race kept this close almost could have won it and didn't use david castillo and pete fairbanks i think you know they did they did fine i think they're fine they feel fine and i want to point one last thing out. I know Brandon Lau only had one homer, but he had two hard hits. And two hard hits is more hard hits than he's had in like a month. Wait a second. So you're counting his hard hits, but not the Astros hard hits against Blake Snell. You got me. You got me.

You got me. Good one. No, but I'm just saying they need somebody other than Randy. Randy hit a homer, but I'm just saying they need somebody other than Randy. Randy hit a homer, but Brandon showed some signs of life. Willie Thomas had three hard hits in game four. So if some of these other guys come to life, then there's a chance that the Rays do something other than Randy. And their pitching is about to get better.

And they only need to win one of two. Yeah, and I would say in the game tomorrow, in game six, Snell versus Frambois Valdez. I know Frambois Valdez has pitched well this postseason. He pitched well throughout this short and regular season. He's a different guy than he was a year ago. And we can buy that this is largely legitimate skills growth, but we're still talking about a guy that has less than a half season's worth of high quality big league innings. You know, if you go back to 2019 Frambois, walks were a major problem. Even keeping the ball in the park

was a little bit of a problem for him. He wasn't striking guys out at quite the same clip that he is right now. So I think the other part of all of this is just how good is Frambois Valdez? Like people are treating this like he's their ace because he's been going first in the series. I don't think he's really that much more than a mid rotation guy, despite how well he's pitched over the last three months. Except the underbelly of this is the Rays either homer or don't score. So I think that's an important factor too. He's not facing the Braves lineup.

And can I point out one thing? I know there's like a million different stuff metrics and some people are even litigating about this. They're bringing the law into this. But... What? You missed. I got a cease and desist.

Anyway, there's another stuff metric out there uh by i don't know why you look that up though for people that are just tuning in randy is randy or rosarena you know wrote one story about the guy and now they're on first name basis so everyone knows no no we're not buds at all it's it's crazy well you're right um no but uh uh i think his name is jason anyway baseball cloud baseball cloud does some really cool r r stuff that people can do like a spin axis and all this stuff baseball cloud.blog is the thing jason i think his name is lane wrote he has an xrv it's like another stuff metric and i just i just wanted to bring it up because from bravaldez is number one now he

included location so it's kind of like command plus stuff but the number one arsenal in baseball was from bravaldez number two is tyler glass now So that's useful. Clayton Kershaw is number four. Dustin May is number five. All interesting things to our discussion. Pete Fairbanks, number 10. Walker Bueller, number 11. So a lot of the players that we are talking about tonight are on this, but Fran Revali is number one. I think that when I look at my stuff metrics that I developed with Ethan Moore and Command Plus from from step, he looks at like average, but there is this other one that says he's, he's number one. And so what I think is that he's okay with stuff and his command is pretty good. And the curve ball that he has does not have a platoon split. So he can use against lefties and righties. But I still can't believe that someone who has two pitches is at the top of our craft.

So I still think that Frambois Valdez tomorrow is below Blake Snell in quality. Yeah, I'm with that. I'd say clear advantage to Snell, but it's not a landslide. It's not a landslide. No, definitely not a landslide. Frambois can hold his own. But I do think if the Rays can find a way to rack up the pitch count on Valdez

and get him out after five instead of letting him go six or seven. Get the bullpen in there. Get the bullpen in there a little bit earlier. It doesn't have to be super early, but just make sure that Frambois is not going six or seven because if he does, you've made your life so much more difficult trying to deal with the handful of actually really good Houston relievers instead of potentially fatigued members of the underbelly part of the Houston bullpen. Yeah, so I think the Rays are going to

win. I still think it, it looks a little bit worse now because the strikeouts are racking up. The offense isn't there. They've lost two in a row, but they only have to win one more. Everyone's kind of in good rest situations in the bullpen. The starting pitching is in good rest situations. They're going to get a shot with Blake Snell,

Charlie Morton, regular rest. They're going to be able to work that bullpen. I still think it's the Rays. I agree with you for six. I think if it gets to a seven, all bets are off, as we've seen. I think Charlie Morton probably

isn't able to replicate some of the luck he had the last time around. That's a good point. I do agree with you. I still think the Rays win this series, but if they don't win tomorrow night, I'm going to have to switch over to Derek's Astros. I'm going to change my pick.

I'm not moving, although I can't be right in terms of number of games. So I guess it's going to have to be Astros and seven. But I just think their lineup is so dangerous. As good as that Rays bullpen is, as good as that pitching staff is, the Rays' inability to score runs without the long ball and having so few guys actually providing that pop is becoming a major issue. I don't want to see it go this way,

but I actually think the Astros extend it to seven and actually win game seven on Saturday. No! Look, it's 2020. Everything this year kind of sucks. And you know that we're not going to get the cool, fun outcome. Astros are going to win the World Series? Is that what you're saying?

If they win, will they have another tainted title? They're going to rub the big piece of metal in everybody's faces too. It sucks. We're all going to have to sit here all winter just furious about it. As much as we're joking about it, I think Jose Altuve, there's redeeming qualities about him.

I think George Springer, the fact that he overcame Suttering, I really like him. Oh, my gosh. Shut up. No, it's real. It's real. I know it's real, but it's a tired storyline that you've heard

for the last four years now. It's like Jose Altuve. He's short. Okay. I didn't bring up that Jose Altuve was short. I mean, there's great stories everywhere, though, because we talked about G-Man for Tampa Bay, and he floated around for 10 years

before he really got playing time. That's a good point. Yes, I'm not anti-George Springer being an advocate for people who overcame stuttering, but also... You think he sucks. The only good thing about that. The only good thing about that only good thing about the astros winning would be dusty baker cementing his hall of fame status in my opinion

i can get behind i don't can't those those guys didn't get booed all year none of those players had any retribution and they're gonna win did you no no did you hear what happened i don't i think it was this game or the game before. Stephanie Epstein, did you see this tweet? Yes, yes, yes, yes. Let's share it with everyone. There was somebody outside the stadium with a little PA system

that was yelling out, Carlos Correa, you are a cheater. And they could hear them in the stadium because it's so quiet. I mean, it kind of reminded me of like, did you guys ever watch Game of Thrones? Did you guys watch Game of Thrones when she does the walk

and it's like shame, shame. That's exactly what it reminded me of. Did the shame walk. Oh my God. I could totally imagine people walking around in San Diego, somebody with a little PA system. Oh, God.

That's great. All right. So Eno is sticking with the Rays. Are they getting it done Friday or are they getting it done Saturday? I'm saying they're getting it done tomorrow. They got Castillo, Snell, and Fairbanks. To me, that's seven innings, eight innings. I don't even think he can do it.

And then Britt's prediction was Rays in six, but if not that, then Astros in seven. Hey, you like that? If you pick everything, you're never wrong. Yeah, you just split sides. So we'll get one and a half predictions right at this point. Right, exactly. Seems like a good way to just kind of split it down the middle.

And I'm still on the Astros side, seven instead of six, just by default. Interesting tweet I saw from Smada, Smada underscore BB. Randy Arrozarena's last 545 plate appearances, which have come since last season at all different

levels, including some at AA, some at AAA, a little bit in the big leagues, of course, last year, then this season, second half of the regular season, plus the playoffs. 28 homers, 23 stolen bases, 96 runs, 73 RBIs, a.342 average, a.383 OBP, a.608 slug, an 8.8% walk rate, and a 20% K rate. And I just said, imagine what he'll do in the next 545 now that he's got that push-up routine in. Stock up. Project more. There's another level here. There's a future first rounder right in front of our faces.

And we're going to draft him probably in the sixth round of drafts in the spring instead so no i you know just to take a fancy tangent i think he's gonna be overdrafted i think he's basically ramon lariano with like a slightly higher uh floor because i think the strikeout rate is better but this the stolen bases could go away they're not they're not there for good and the strikeout rate if it doesn't improve if it's there again at like 28 next year 26 then the batting average won't necessarily be there then he will be ramon loriano even with the floor so i i think people should look at ramon loriano before they go head over heels as much as i wrote the head over heels post

about how much I love Randy Rosarena I still see I still see Ramon Laureano as as a comp as a real comp I mean these are guys that that people thought were fourth outfielders these are guys that have power and speed some people have worried about their plate discipline these are guys that when they when they're right they look like they're amazing and when they're wrong they look power and speed. Some people have worried about their play discipline. These are guys that when they're right, they look like they're amazing. And when they're wrong, they look like, what are you talking about? So I just want people to put Ramon Larano in their head. I drafted Ramon Larano this year. I still think Ramon Larano next year will be better. So I'm not saying he's bad. I'm just saying first rounder is pretty aggressive, especially I'm not sure how much he's bad. I'm just saying first rounder is pretty aggressive, especially I'm not sure

how much he's going to steal bases. But one thing that's cool, and I did interact with a professional about this. I think that Randy Rosarino was a low ball hitter. And the evidence for that is the ground ball rates in the minor leagues. And then someone told him, and he told me this for the piece, someone told him to be more me this for the piece someone told him to be more upright and raise his hands up and he became a high ball hitter so here's a guy who looks to hit the high fastball looks to be a high ball hitter can obviously murder the high fastball and yet in his history is the low ball hitterness so it's a pretty potent combo. And I think that's a little bit better maybe than Laureano because when you look at the history and the adjustments he's made,

there's something there that really lines up with the league, what they're trying to do, and all that stuff. So look today. You know what he did today? He hit a low fastball for a home run. That's supposed to be what you're supposed to do against him. You're supposed to maybe now try low fastballs because he hits the high fastballs.

If he can hit the low fastball and the high fastball for home runs and he can hit breaking balls, I don't know what you'd do. There's not a lot of easy ways to get somebody out if they can do all three of those things. And to clarify, future first rounder was a little bit, just a little bit tongue-in-cheek. Aggressive. No, there was definitely some fantasy jokes going around about that.

Just a little, yeah. I think some people might be taking it seriously, but look, he's a great player and a great story, and hopefully we'll see him playing even beyond this weekend. My prediction, be damned. So let's be clear. When it comes to shipping internationally, can I provide trade documents electronically?

Mm-hmm. The answer is FedEx. Okay. But what about estimating duties and taxes on my shipments? How do I find all the... Also FedEx. Impressive. Is there a regulatory specialist I can ask about?

FedEx. Oh. But let's say that... FedEx. What? FedEx. Thanks. No more questions say that. FedEx. What? FedEx. Thanks. No more questions.

Always your answer for international shipping. FedEx, where now meets next. Let's go to the National League, and let's talk about this latest development with Clayton Kershaw in the postseason. A lot of hard-hit balls and a lot of criticism for Dave Roberts. And it just leads me to a question of how much of the when does Clayton Kershaw come out of the game decision go to Dave Roberts? Is it 100% him? Is it like 75% him? Does he deserve all of the heat for the usage of Clayton Kershaw that he receives?

No. all of the heat for the usage of Clayton Kershaw that he receives. No, the blame has to go all around. In my opinion, for the Dodgers on this loss, it can't just be on Clayton Kershaw, though. He's the guy. And this isn't the seventh or eighth inning.

This is the sixth inning. You kind of have to be able to get him to go by. The blame goes to Dave Roberts also for Azuna, who all of a sudden had woken up. You know, do you really in that all of a sudden had woken up. You know, do you really in that tight of a game, which was tight at that point in time, want him to face a tired Clayton Kershaw? Exactly. And then to show you how little relievers he has trust in, he goes to Gratterall, who basically does his best impression of like Baez and completely blows the game open. And then the offense should not be exempt from this

because they should have absolutely tattooed this kid who had what, seven? Was it seven career starts under his belt? And they weren't good. Those starts weren't good. Right. I get they scored 15 runs last night, but their offense has consistently been a problem outside of that game.

Right? They have been in these – they've had these huge outbursts and then these periods of nothing. And to me, everybody deserves blame for the Dodgers loss tonight. I don't think you can hang it on one person. It's on Dave Roberts. It's on Clayton Kershaw. It's on the bullpen.

It's on the lineup. It's on all of them's on Clayton Kershaw it's on the bullpen it's on the lineup it's on all of them because this happens every year there's a good point about making Bryce Wilson look like a superstar I was trying to find comps I was looking at the different movement the pitch movement and like the arsenal and stuff and I found two comps for Bryce Wilson and they made him look like one and not the other so the two comps were Robert Gisellman and Lance Lynn. Okay. They made Robert Gisellman look like Lance Lynn tonight.

And there's something going on there. They had, I don't know, sometimes it's luck. I mean, they had the bases loaded. They just didn't. There was a chance to get back in this yeah was it the unfamiliarity with him you think there's something to that especially if you if you think about like if you never faced lance lynn if you never faced a guy who throws three fastballs and all he does is throw three fastballs and you keep waiting for the breaking ball or something you You know what I mean?

That was kind of the genius for Bryce Wilson. It's just like, I'm going to throw the sinker, the cutter, the foreseam. None of these pitches is amazing by themselves, but like Lance Lynn, I'm going to mix these all up, and I'm going to keep you off balance, and it was good enough. And he stayed in the zone more than usual. Bryce Wilson also has more command than Kyle Wright. If you look at command plus, Bryce Wilson is average to above average.

Kyle Wright is bad. So he used command. He used three fastballs. Everyone was saying, it's Lance Lynn. Why are you talking about Robert Zellman? I'm saying, look at the results this year. It looks a lot more like Robert Zellman. Look at the future.

It might look more like Robert Zellman. Look at the future, it might look more like Robert Zellman. But today he looked like Lanson, and that is at least somewhat on the Dodgers offense. I agree with you. There's a few things about Wilson that I thought were kind of impressive. The velo is solid, averaged 95 on the four-seamer. Got to the changeup in curveball enough, too. And if you look at the CSW percentage, the called strikes and the whiffs, I mean, he was 31% with his four-seamer, 33% with his changeup,

40% with his curveball. It's really good. Like, that's a good mix, right? I don't know. Is this a case where maybe he brought a little more to the table than he had been previously? We talked about pitchers coming up with a different sort of game plan with Lance McCullers and what he did

earlier in the ALCS, right? Is that a little bit of what happened with Wilson? Did he just catch the Dodgers by surprise by going to those secondaries a little bit more often? Well, he did something because he needed 18 pitches to get through the first two innings. And to me, that was a big part of the game because we saw yesterday what happened. The Dodgers scored, put up double-digit runs in the first inning, and that whole game was a blowout. You've got a rookie, a kid who we all know is nervous out of his mind, not sure if he even belongs there. And to me, breezing through, you know, minus that one, you know, solo home run early, breezing through those first two innings, not having a lot of traffic on the bases, you saw him kind of gain that confidence and that momentum.

And if I'm the Dodgers and a veteran lineup, I was really disappointed with the quality of those at-bats and the way they didn't make him work and they didn't put the pressure on him early. Because don't you guys think if they went out there and hung even three, four runs early, it would have been very easy for the Braves to be like, oh, here we go again. We got a kid up there who doesn't know what he's doing. Here comes Josh Tomlin.

Yeah. You know, to me, that really kind of set the tone for it. I don't know what the Dodgers' approach was. I don't know how much, you know, the unfamiliarity or his game plan, like you were saying. Let's give Bryce Wilson some credit. I mean, compared to his regular season, he was up a tick. You know, fastball velocity matters.

He also threw the four-seam more. And if you watch the game, he threw the four-seam high more. And I think that, like, I don't know if he commanded it high more or if they swung it high more, or if the game plan was like, oh, we're going to swing at these high pitches. His four-seam doesn't have a lot of ride. So he's not the kind of guy that you might expect to throw high in the zone. So maybe they thought, oh, we can hit this fastball,

so we're going to swing at the four-seam. He threw 36 four-seamers, and they swung 18 times. They missed five times, which is kind of a lot for a four-seamer. So I don't know. I was a little surprised to see how much he pitched high in the zone, how it was 95 instead of 94. I think maybe he came out there and pitched the game of his life. I mean, that's what he did.

Totally. And Kershaw was down a tick in velocity, right? Yeah, he was. Which makes the Dave Roberts-Ozuna situation to me. Take him out earlier. He's coming off the back, and it's a left-hander. Freeman just hit him. Come on, take him out.

And this is the thing about Kershaw. If you look at his history, his strikeout rate in the postseason is the same as the regular season. His walk rate is only a little bit worse. His homer rate is double what it is in the regular season. And when you look at when he's been used, a lot of times they don't take him out in the seventh they don't take him out the eighth they don't take him out in the sixth a lot of times it's and maybe it's related to a Dave Roberts be the other managers see the bullpen is not always good enough to take him out that early the front office d the front office e the idea that you have a hall of famer on the mound so why would you take him out early?

And a lot of times he's doing pretty well until that moment. But given that you know this now, I mean, you know all this now. You've seen the history. And you can say with some certitude, we should take him out earlier. Yeah. And then you leave him in for Marcelo Zuniga. I agree. But the Dodgers had three hits, But like certitude, we should take him out earlier. Yeah.

And then you leave him in for Marcelo Zuniga. I agree. I don't know. But the Dodgers had three hits. So I don't want to turn this into a Kershaw bash fest because how do you win a postseason game with three hits? You don't. And I mean, Kershaw allowed nine hard hit balls. So yeah, there was plenty of evidence there. Oh, hey, maybe we should take him out.

He's just not. That was best stuff today. I think part of the problem here is the circle of trust in this bullpen. Even though there were guys that put up good numbers in reasonably low leverage situations throughout the regular season, when the game is on the line, the list of relievers that this team trusts right now is unusually short for a team that has resources like the Dodgers do and a fair amount of similarity between them Gratterall, Floro, Trinan, super sinker guys yeah so yeah that's a great I think the the question then becomes where do we go from here I mean the Braves come away with a huge win. They're up 3-1 in the series. They're left with the same kind of decision that the Rays had in their game five. Do you bullpen it, hope you keep it close, and then pull the lever, switch the train over to the A relievers if you're Atlanta, if you have the opportunity to do so, and then try to just keep everybody fresh? Or do you say, let's go for the kill, Let's push Max Freed on short rest

and see if we can get out of here in five. I don't think that's an easy decision to make, by the way, because you mentioned this before. It's not like Max Freed is just going to be himself for sure on short rest. There's a very good chance he's less than himself on short rest. Greg said, nope, we're not doing it. They're not going to do it. They've confirmed that.

I think that's the better choice. Dustin May is going game five but how many innings that's a great question too with may because i mean when we were talking about wilson yesterday i thought it was going to be a miracle if he went more than three i just based on past usage regular season performance dustin may can stretch out a lot more than he's been stretched out in the postseason. I would assume this is a situation where you try to let him go as far as possible. You're not worried about 6-7 with Dustin May. You're just hoping to see Game 6 and 7 by starting Dustin May in Game 5 and giving yourself that potential advantage over Atlanta's bullpen plan.

Right. Yeah, I mean, it's kind of evenly matched because Atlanta over Atlanta's bullpen plan. Right. Yeah. I mean, it's kind of evenly matched because Atlanta has a good bullpen, but we've seen the effects of they've had to use their good relievers. You know, they've had to throw some of these guys in spots and, and a bullpen game is hard to recover from.

So I think tomorrow's game, like the issue with Dustin may though, is that they've done so much like herky jerky with him, hey you're gonna pitch in relief hey we need you here oh you're gonna start here and they knew about clayton kershaw's back before the series started so i don't know it's not as easy as people think to get in that mindset right like when did he know that he was starting tomorrow's game tonight i don't know i don't think that can be discounted either. How many pitches can he give them? It seems like they have a definitive amount of innings that he can go.

They already have it pre-planned, it seems, and they're not telling anyone, but maybe Dave Roberts, what the plan is. Well, we just know that Walker Buehler is not part of that situation. Right, yes. Walker Buehler is not part of that situation, right? Right. Yes. Walker Buehler is not available tomorrow. I mean, he was warming and then, you know, he turned it into a bullpen session, but he's not available tomorrow. Right. He would have been an interesting guy to come out of the bullpen if they were winning, or it was a tight game, but also speaks to Derek's point that there's that small circle of trust.

They're now plucking guys out of the rotation because they don't trust anyone in the bullpen. All right. So prediction time, as you look at these last couple of games of the NLCS, the Braves have a 3-1 lead. Do they win the series? And if so, when does this series come to an end? We'll go to you first, Britt. I think the Braves are going to win this in six. Yeah. The Dodgers have a lot of holes, which is unusual for a team

that added Mookie Betts this winter and got better. But they just can't get it done in the playoffs. I don't see the Dodgers winning. I think tonight was the turning point. They absolutely stole one. I'm trying to come up with the pathway, right? So the pathway is May shoves.

They still have, you know, Trinan and Jansen. I mean, they have some guys they can use along with May. So they win that game. Then Urias. Bueller. Bueller. Go Bueller in six.

You have to go Bueller. Yeah, Urias would go in seven against Ian Anderson. You'd go Bueller versus Freed. Bueller versus Freed, and Freed's on full rest. And Bueller has that blister. Oh, God, and he wasn't showing a good command. No. I saw the roadmap before they lost this game.

Now I'm trying to see the roadmap. From the very beginning, something you brought up when we first talked about the series is that because of the way the Dodgers pitching staff is built, they need to win in the middle of the series because they have such a big advantage there. And this was the game. This one getting away was a really bad loss for them.

And a few other things have kind of gone wrong along the way, of course. It's not hopeless. That's a lineup that at the very beginning of the series, the thing I said is these two teams, they could score runs at will against anybody. These could be slugfest the next three days. You could tell me the Dodgers are going to win these next three games. They're going to win 7-6, 10-7, and 5-4.

And I'd say, okay, sure, that makes sense. They have the offense to do it. They have a bad enough bullpen when fatigued to give up runs like that. They've got enough question marks right now for the series to play out that way. So I just think they're going to have to do it in a kind of atypical way for the recent Dodgers unless Walker Bueller's blister is less of an issue and unless they're able to get a lot more mileage than a lot of us are expecting from Dustin May.

I don't think any of us are doubting Dustin May's talent. When we watch Dustin May, we're like, this dude's amazing. Why doesn't he strike more guys out? I think it's a question of how long they're going to let him pitch, how long he's going to pitch well, and whether or not that's going to be good enough to limit the strain on the relievers.

Do you think the Dodgers are capable of not losing another game? Absolutely, yeah. They could win three in a row against Atlanta. But I don't see a realistic roadmap. The roadmap would be, except May shoves, but then they have to use a fair amount of relievers because they already used May. It's not like May's going to go seven or eight, right?

So then they use a bunch of relievers, and then they have to go against Max Fried on full rest. And let's say Max Fried, it's a pitching duel, you know, and Walker Bue bueller pitches his brains out they still have to use some relievers you know it's very conflicted i think you get to game seven and i love julius but then what relievers do they have available because they just had to win two games so uh as much as I was thinking the Dodgers, I guess I think it's Braves-Rays.

All right. I'm going to stick with the Dodgers. I realize I'm facing a massive uphill battle. Look, I picked them in seven at the beginning of the series. You've got to pick a reliever MVP then. Some reliever is going to have to just be incredible. No, Floro pitched tonight. Jake McGee pitched tonight too, right? Trinan.

It's got to be Trinan or Jansen. Jansen? That'd be kind of fun, dude. That'd be the one cool thing is if they did come back and Jansen pitches like four innings over the next three days and everyone has to be like, well, you know, Jansen's still a pretty good reliever. Yeah, if he comes back a little

rested, gets the tick back on the cutter and is good. I feel bad when we rip on Kenley Jansen because I like him. I think he's a likable player. I want him to be vintage Kenley Jansen for a flash here just because it's fun

to watch him when he's on his game but they need something like that. They need an unexpected spark in that group to bridge the gap unless they're getting some miracle, complete game sort of performances from Buehler at Game 6 and Urias in Game 7. But again, I think you're asking way too much if you're expecting something like that,

just given the state of Buehler's hand. That blister is clearly an issue for him. You picked him. I agree. I picked him. I'm sticking with agree i picked him i'm sticking with it look hey i'm sticking with the astros too i'm i'm a lot of things and most of them aren't good but i am loyal and that's important so no what uh you know maybe for bueller it's good news that he pitched a whole game then he pitched a bullpen today you know maybe maybe the the blister is

doing better maybe the command will be better because he's had that game and he had the bullpen. So when's Buehler? Buehler is game six. So they win game five. Buehler is capable of like seven innings, no runs. Oh, yeah. It's in his range.

It's there. It's just you feel. It's there. It's just you feel like it's even less likely, though, given the way he's pitching the postseason with the bad finger. It's like Kershaw. He's at 90% right now, and you just don't know what you're going to get. And it all depends on the bats in the end, right? Because, like, let's say Buehler goes seven innings,

shoves, no runs, but the bats don't do anything, then you're still maybe 1-0, and you have to use all the A relievers, and then on game seven, you're like, oh, sorry, you're going to have to go back-to-back-to-back-to-back-to-back-to-back. Sorry. I still think the offense could just get them out of it, and the pitching could be less relevant

as a result. Not irrelevant, it's going to matter. They're going to have to have run prevention to keep the Braves from scoring 8-plus runs themselves, but the Dodgers' offense is good. Offense is more correlated to postseason success than pitching. There you go. Thank you for putting the exclamation point

on it. That's what I'm hoping for. The path to success doesn't matter as much about the pitching that I'm worried about. It's about Corey Seager going ham. Corey Seager going ham. Corey Seager's been going ham most of the year. He had three hard hits and no hits today. It's about Mookie Betts waking up.

It will be interesting. Mookie Betts waking up. Well, good news for us is we are off for the weekend. Hopefully, everyone will enjoy these games regardless of the outcome. I need some sleep. Everyone needs sleep on this show. By the end of the week, we're on fumes. It's been a lot of fun doing these.

We're going to do them, of course, through the World Series. But yeah, Friday night and Saturday night are two nights off. So we'll have World Series predictions and a bunch of stuff to begin next week. If you're joining this podcast on a platform that allows you to rate and review it, please take a moment to do that. We'd greatly appreciate it. If you're not already a subscriber to The Athletic, you can get a subscription for

$1 a month. Theathletic.com slash ratesandbarrels. As always, you can hit us up via email, ratesandbarrels at theathletic.com. You can find us on Twitter. She's at Britt underscore Giroli. He's at Eno Saris. I am at Derek Van Ryper. That is going to wrap things up for this episode

of Rates and Barrels. We are back with you on Monday. Expect a special guest over the weekend. Thanks for listening.