3 Takeaways - We Can’t Stop the Wildfires—But We Can Stop the Disaster (#243)

Episode Date: April 1, 2025

Wildfires have ravaged residential communities like never before, and confusion about the causes and solutions is out of control. Listen, as renowned fire scientist Jack Cohen reveals the keys to protecting homes, why more firefighting resources alone aren’t the answer, and the step L.A. does not appear to be taking to minimize future damage.

Wildfires are no longer just a seasonal occurrence. They've become an uncontrollable force. From the massive infernos ravaging California to raging blazes in far-flung corners of the Earth, the scale of destruction is staggering. Entire communities wiped out, homes reduced to ash, lives forever changed. What was once seen as a natural part of the ecosystem now feels like an unstoppable disaster. So the question is, are we truly powerless against this growing threat or is there a way for

us to fight back? Hi everyone, I'm Lynn Toman and this is Three Takeaways. On Three Takeaways I talk with some of the world's best thinkers, business leaders, writers, politicians, newsmakers, and scientists. Each episode ends with three key takeaways to help us understand the world and maybe even ourselves a little better. Today, I'm excited to be joined by Jack Cohn,

a fire expert with a unique perspective, both as a firefighter and a US Forest Service fire scientist. Jack co-developed the National Fire Danger Rating System and has spent years fighting and studying fires, transforming our understanding of them. His groundbreaking work on how homes ignite and fire spread is reshaping fire management. Today we'll tackle an important question. Is the destruction we've witnessed inevitable

or can we do more to protect ourselves? Let's dive in and rethink how we approach fire. Welcome Jack and thank you so much for joining three takeaways today. Oh, thank you, Lynn, very much for being interested in the topic. Wow, it's such a critical topic today. Jack, can you explain briefly the major causes of wildfires? Is it lightning, or is it man-made causes,

such as sparks from power lines, or is it man-made causes such as sparks from power lines or is it something else? Most wildfires are ignited by humans but that's nothing new. Wildland fires have mostly been started by humans in North America for thousands of years so today they're often caused by power lines, railroads, burning debris, and fireworks. Regardless of the cause, however, wildfires are inevitable. Have wildfires changed in the 20th and 21st centuries? Are they different now than they used to be? Wildfires have always been a part of the landscape, but what's changed over particularly the last hundred years is our increasing attempt

to control wildfires. Over this period we have successfully suppressed 95 to 98 percent of wildfires, keeping the area burned small. While this may seem like a good thing, it actually just postpones fires to inevitably burn during more severe conditions. When we suppress fires, wildland vegetation continues to grow and regenerate, and this results in fuel conditions that can produce more intense wildfires during strong winds and dry conditions. That's called the wildfire paradox. That is, the more we try to stop fires, the worse they become when they inevitably occur. So we need to find ways of increasing wildland fires instead of limiting them. And when you look at the massive devastation of recent fires, such as those in LA and elsewhere,

is the problem wildland fire management, or is it urban fire management and the ways the fire spread in urban areas? We need to distinguish. Fires in wildlands are a separate issue from fires in urban communities. The urban and suburban wildfire problem is how fires ignite and spread within residential areas. Most of the disastrous community fire destruction occurs after the wildfire has ceased near the community.

While we can't stop extreme wildfires, we can significantly reduce community wildfire risk. The key to preventing disastrous fire destruction in high density residential areas is by addressing how community ignition and fire spread occurs during the extreme wildfire conditions. So how do fires spread in communities? Do they spread like a wall of flames that engulfs a whole neighborhood? Not at all. The media often portrays wildfires as huge, unstoppable flaming tsunamis or walls of flame.

But that's not how the fires actually spread in urban areas. In fact, much of the fire spread in residential areas is from burning embers carried by the wind. Initially, these embers may travel long distances from a wildfire, accumulating on homes to ignite them or directly by igniting flammable materials around the homes. When the wind is strong, burning embers can land across a wide area and simultaneously ignite numerous homes. But the disastrous community fire spread continues from burning structures, not from the extreme wildfire.

It's the most effective way then to fight fires, more firefighting resources, more fire engines and fire fighters? More firefighting resources can't prevent disastrous community destruction during the extreme wildfire conditions. Wildfire suppression and community fire protection, that's with aircraft and fire engines,

becomes ineffective during extreme fire conditions. Even in Southern California, with hundreds of fire engines and firefighters, they are overwhelmed by hundreds of small fires simultaneously igniting and leading to hundreds of burning homes scattered across a community. In high density residential communities, it takes a minimum of three fire engines and 15 firefighters during average fire conditions to prevent one house fire from spreading to its neighbors. So when hundreds to thousands of ignition vulnerable homes are at risk,

it's impossible to prevent the community fire disaster. Creating ignition and fire resistant communities is the only way we can prevent disastrous community fire destruction. The home ignition risk management strategies that you believe are the most effective are flame resistant materials for roofs and for sidings and the clearing away of dead brush and plants away from homes. Is that right? Exactly. The key to preventing community destruction during extreme wildfires is to prevent homes from catching fire, not by attempting extreme wildfire control. There are readily available

ignition-resistant and non-combustible home building materials and designs, along with the mitigation of flammable materials immediately surrounding homes that can make the difference between community survival and destruction. It would seem that changes to zoning requiring rebuilding with fire resistant materials would be beneficial to communities, especially communities like LA that have been devastated by fires. To your knowledge, is LA implementing new zoning requirements of flame resistant materials? I'm not aware that they have made the decision one way or the other with regard to rebuilding. But zoning is an incredibly controversial kind of action.

And so there is a definite resistance to new zoning and new codes. So to my knowledge, no. That is astonishing. Jack, is there anything else you'd like to add before I ask for the three takeaways you'd like to leave the audience with today? Yes.

When I speak with fire chiefs, they often ask me, what should I tell homeowners? And I say to them, well, tell them we can't be effective without you. It sounds simple, but the reality is urban firefighting efforts cannot be effective during extreme wildfire conditions without ignition resistant homes. But ignition resistant is not fireproof. Most ignitions will be eliminated with ignition resistance but some ignitions should be expected. And that means firefighters will remain essential for community fire protection.

Jack, what are the three takeaways you'd like to leave the audience with today? Takeaway one, current wildfire strategies are failing. That's evidenced by massive fires and destruction most recently in Southern California. My second takeaway is extreme wildfires are inevitable. But disastrous community destruction is not. Wildfires initiate community ignitions with burning embers, but then communities burn as urban fires, not as wildfires. This means preventing disasters isn't about stopping wildfires.

It's about reducing home ignition and community fire spread. And my third takeaway is the best defense is fire resistant communities. The most effective wildfire risk reduction happens within the communities, not in surrounding forests and wildlands. Fire resistant homes and surroundings prevent most of ignitions that occur during extreme wildfires. And I have a bottom line. We can prevent catastrophic community destruction without controlling the un-uncontrollable wildfires.

That's by focusing on fire resistant communities, not wildfire suppression. Jack, thank you. not wildfire suppression. Jack, thank you. Thank you for all your work fighting fires and mitigating damage to homes and communities. Thank you very much. And thank you very much for your interest. Absolutely.

It's such a critical issue now, and people just don't understand it correctly. If you're enjoying the podcast, and I really hope you are, please review us on Apple Podcasts or Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts. It really helps get the word out. If you're interested, you can also sign up for the Three Takeaways newsletter at ThreeTakeaways.com, where you can also listen to previous episodes. You can also follow to previous episodes.

You can also follow us on LinkedIn, X, Instagram, and Facebook. I'm Lynn Toman, and this is 3Takeaways. Thanks for listening.