A Problem Squared - 004 = Quarantine Kits and Contagion Calculus

Episode Date: March 24, 2020

- Why is this episode so late? - What to take when in hospital quarantine? - Tips for working at home from two pros. - Does the exponential maths of viral memes check out? Get in touch if you'd like to share your working-from-home space. We'd love to see it! https://www.instagram.com/aproblemsquared/ https://twitter.com/AProblemSquared Support us on Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/aproblemsquared

Hello and welcome to A Problem Squared. I'm Bec Hill. And I'm Matt Parker. And we're here to solve your problems. Slick. We are in no way out of practice. Oh my goodness. It's been a while, Bec. What happened? Yeah, okay. So we were supposed to record our last episode before the end of February. And then I came back from Brussels Comic Con.

I'd had a wonderful weekend. And then on the way back, got really ill, like properly, really bad fever, headaches, cough, trouble breathing. And then when I was coming through customs at the Eurostar, they had all the posters that were saying, do these symptoms and I was like yeah but it's not coronavirus and then it was like have you been in any of these countries recently and Hong Kong was on the list and I was like yeah but only through the airport like yeah yeah I was barely in Hong Kong I only walked past a couple hundred people while I was there yeah yeah and also I didn't wear a mask because I thought that was stupid. And yeah, then I felt like an idiot. And so I went home and I called NHS Direct and I did what the poster told me. And then they called me back and took down my symptoms.

And they're like, yeah, we're sending an ambulance to your place. And I felt so ill as well. Like apparently the coronavirus for people in my situation like my age bracket and normal physical health the symptoms aren't as bad as a bad flu so the nurses were saying weird things like I bet you wish you had coronavirus and this was still when we didn't know that much about it so I was like oh what a weird thing to say. I want to make this clear this is before all the coronavirus stuff really kicked off. Yeah I was like quarantining before it was cool. And so you kind of like rang me up and you're like so I'm very ill and I was in Hong Kong recently and I'm like I would like you to not come down to the studio. Yeah yeah and

so uh yeah I was in like a proper quarantine where they had to get all dressed up on the way in. And like, I felt like E.T. It was amazing. Wow. Okay. So we want to hear all about this. Yes. So we are now recording much later in March. Yes. And this is going to be our quarantine virus episode. Yes. But if people are sick of that content, which let's be honest, there's a lot out there right now, we will be releasing the March episode as normally scheduled on the last day of March. And we're going to record that today as well. Yeah. Yeah. So stick around and there will be a non-coronavirus episode. Yeah. If you're sick of hearing about the coronavirus and quarantine, then we've tested the next episode and it's come back clear. It has no viral load whatsoever.

So it's entirely safe to listen to if you're sick of hearing about that. But otherwise, we thought we'd go all in and make this quarantine special. Yeah, covering problems such as what should you take if you're quarantined in hospital? It's a very specific problem, but one that you're now qualified to comment on. We're also going to look at top tips for working from home. And we're also going to look at the mathematics behind the infection rate of the coronavirus and check out whether some of the things going around are correct. One thing I've learned is that if you guys infect other people by telling them about this podcast, we could get

many, many more listeners during this isolation period. Oh yes, yes. Please do share this podcast wherever you can, but just not in person. Our first problem for Beck is one that you've now got a lot of experience of and that's what happens if you actually get quarantined in a hospital so not like we're all self-isolating and working from home and doing all those things we'll deal with that in a moment but in the extreme case if you get dragged into hospital i'm curious because you know hopefully it won't happen to anyone listening but if it does happen, what do you take? What goes on? Any recommendations?

Okay. So the first thing about hospital quarantine, and obviously I'm just speaking about the hospital I went to. There's nothing in there. Like there's a bed and a bathroom and a sink. And that's it. That's it. Like there's no TV. Oh, I had a window, but that's it.

That's nature's TV. Yeah's it. Like there's no TV. Oh, I had a window, but that's it. That's nature's TV. Yeah. Yeah. The plus side is if you're quarantined in a hospital, chances are you're so sick that you don't need anything else. So I slept the whole time and I had so many people saying to me, because obviously this is before everyone was in isolation, saying, oh, what I would give to being quarantined or have an excuse not to talk to people and just get some work done. And I was because obviously this is before everyone was in isolation, saying, oh, what I would give to be in quarantine or have an excuse not to talk to people and just get some work done. And I was like, I'm not getting work done. I slept for the whole three days I was in there.

I sweated. Actually, that's a really good point because you had a pretty serious case of the flu. Yeah. And for anyone who's not had the, like, because I used to throw around, oh, I might have the flu, I'm feeling a bit fluey. And then about three years ago, I got the flu yeah and for anyone who's not had the like because i used to throw around oh i might have the flu i'm feeling a bit fluey and then about three years ago i got the flu and i it floored me for a week yeah and it was horrific so so you had all that going on at the same time yeah because you're like you feel like you're dying and then i think the worst part is you get

through the worst symptoms in a couple of days but then it takes so long to properly shake them. Like I had a cough for a solid two weeks and a proper cough, like a guttural cough. And that was when everything was picking up with the virus stuff. So I couldn't go outside, not only because I was still trying to get better, but also just because anytime I coughed, people around me were like. Just scatter. Yeah, yeah. It was pretty full on. So yeah, it was pretty full-on so yeah it was a bad flu I was very very ill so if you get quarantined I wouldn't worry so much about

taking entertainment I did actually take my tablet I didn't take it out of my bag once oh wow I barely looked at my phone I think I even took a book which is so dumb because again I didn't want to look at anything I just slept for the whole time and sweated and felt sad. Because I messaged you about halfway through and I was like, how are you doing? Do you need a phone call? Because I know normally if Beck's not talking, then you're going to be very sad.

The amount of people who said to me, I know you're ill because you aren't talking. Yeah, yeah, that's how you know I'm sick when I ain't rambling. So I would suggest if you're put into quarantine, just some practical things, really. Toothbrush and toothpaste. You can get them from the hospital. But if you've got a preferred toothbrush, like we talked about in a previous episode,

I would pack that. And your favorite sort of toiletries in terms of shampoo and conditioner when you're well enough to shower. that and your favorite sort of toiletries in terms of shampoo and conditioner when you're well enough to shower again the hospital provides it but it's all in these little sample pack type things and you're going to rip them open and have you ever tried to open those packets of like shampoo and conditioner or whatever with wet hands yes and i i can't do it the little little sachets and the problem is if it's like food stuff i'm like well i'll use my teeth right yeah shampoo or soap i'm like now that's like the only weapon in my arsenal is teeth

and i'm out yeah it's so true it's so true and i suspect you were in before the big rush so i'm imagine replenishing like complementary sachets of conditioner are going to be way down the list of priorities for hospitals now. Yeah. So I would say take your own toiletries. Take a couple of pairs of nice warm socks. Keep your feet warm. Take a spare blanket. I didn't take things like that because I thought they might try and like incinerate them all because i didn't quite understand how the how the illness was working but again they have spare blankets but they're all really thin and

they've got more important things to do so i wish i'd taken a spare blanket and i wish i'd taken a pair of actual day clothes because i went in my pajamas and i had a spare pair of pajamas but i didn't have any clothes clothes like for outside Right. So your only option was pajamas. Yeah. So when I went home, they knew I had a flu and they knew that was probably the cause of the symptoms but I hadn't been cleared of coronavirus. But because they were like, well, there's nothing we can do in hospitals.

Like we can't cure it. So there's no point having you taking up a bed here. Out you go. We'll send you home to get better. But because they didn't know if I had coronavirus yet, they sent me home in an ambulance, which means I was still in my pajamas and everything. And that's fine. But if I'd been cleared of coronavirus while still at the hospital, they would have wanted me to walk home because if you're sick, they don't want you catching a cab or anything because then you might

give the flu to the cab driver. Like it's really unfair. So they're like, you know, if you're well enough, you should walk home. And I had nothing that would allow that. I mean, to be fair, I didn't want to walk home anyway, cause I felt like death, but you know, if you're in a position where you're feeling well enough that you could walk, bear in mind that that might be the option to do. Right. So it's all toiletries, blankets, pyjamas. Clothes. Clothes. And I know in your case, isn't it one specific hospital and this was early on, but could you have got someone to have dropped these things off? Like what's the deal?

Actually, we probably should start coming up with plans for things like that as well. So when they didn't know if they'd actually be able to get an ambulance to drop me home, they actually said, do you know anyone who'd be able to drive you home who doesn't need the car for two weeks? Because basically they would have to drive me home and then leave it. Quarantine the car? Yeah, yeah. Because they, or at least like you don't want anyone else going in there and getting it while the virus is still alive. So I didn't know anyone who would be like that.

And also they were sort of saying, you know, do you know anyone who could bring you clothes? But they couldn't bring them from my house because my house had been quarantined because if I had coronavirus all my gems would be everywhere. So they were like, no one should go to your flat. They'll have to bring different clothes. So I think it's also worth just bearing in mind any friends who would be willing to help out in those types of situations. Yeah. So keep that in mind. Wow. And have a comparable sized friend who can bring you spare clothes in an emergency.

Yeah. The other thing that was interesting is they'd done the swab tests in my mouth and they'd done the blood tests. But they also brought me a little vial because I was coughing so violently. And they brought me a little vial and they said, if you cough up any phlegm, can you put it in this vial? And I didn't cough up any phlegm during this time. It just rattled around, but it never came up. And I'm guessing it was to see if they could test it. Yeah.

I don't know if they can test it faster or I don't know what the deal is, but they wanted some. Maybe I just had a weird nurse who was obsessed. That's an option. So the thing I would say is maybe take something that you could put in the phlegm flask that is funny. That's great. If you do take your own toiletries, pop some shampoo or something in there. No phlegm, but I coughed up a very small Lego person. Yeah, yeah, yeah.

Any miniatures you have. Dungeons and Dragons stuff. I mean, can you imagine if you had like a little figurine in there? Oh, that's great. If you did, though, if like you were like, oh, here you go. I coughed up some phlegm and you give them a small vial of Worcestershire sauce. Like how? This guy really likes Worcestershire sauce. Like, how? This guy really likes Worcestershire sauce.

And from what I hear, when hospitals and the NHS is overloaded, what all the medical staff really want is just a bit of a laugh, just someone playing some casual pranks. Wasabi, like something that looks like phlegm, but then they were like, oh, this is powerful. Back when we found that you don't have coronavirus, but you do have sushi samba. You do go very well with sushi. So there you are.

Beck, I think apart from possibly pranking NHS staff, that's good advice and a problem solved. Ding! your staff um that's good advice and a problem solved ding our next problem comes from a few of you actually a few listeners who wanted to know what our tips for working from home are and i feel like we're qualified to answer that because we both work from home anyway a lot of the time yeah like we do have to travel a lot and we're out in the evenings but during the days we're doing all the admin that prepares us for the other stuff i don't know about you but i've had all my live work cancelled and so i am working from home but it's not often i work from home for such an extended period of time because normally i've got other gigs and

shows and things i'm going off and doing whereas now I've got there's two holdout events that haven't cancelled between now and like June July-ish like every like my tour has been postponed all my school work has been cancelled and now it's just working from home yeah there's a comedian called Joss Norris who tweeted and I thought he perfectly put it when he said he's been more social since everyone's been put into self-isolation than he's ever been in his life because everyone wants to FaceTime right now. Everyone wants to FaceTime. Everyone wants to talk. Like all the meetings you would normally have either in person or via email for some reason, people who are normally in offices are now like, oh, yeah, yeah, you're free for a FaceTime later. Everyone wants to FaceTime.

And it's like, I've done more phone calls in the last few days than I have in years. I wonder how long it's going to last. Because it is good advice from working from home is to keep in touch with other people, you know, chat to other humans, all that. But I think a lot of people are front-loading it. Oh, yeah. Everyone's gone to 100%. I had a 45-minute FaceTime yesterday that could have been a one-paragraph email. Yeah, see, exactly, exactly.

And it's all well and good, but if we're in this for a minimum of, let's say, eight weeks, you want to stagger your social interaction or we're all going to be exhausted pretty quick. Yeah. So that's one hint. One hint. One hint. Don't over-socialize too fast. But the closest I get to this is sometimes Lucy, my wife and I, will occasionally be writing books at the same time.

And so we've gone on like writing retreats where we'll hire a tiny cottage in the middle of nowhere, as long as it's got internet, And we'll go there and we'll just write for like a week or two at a time. And so, so far, this just feels like doing that. And when we do that, we still try and put like a semi-routine. Like we get up by a certain time, we start work at a set time, and then we try and finish at a particular time. And so I think we've just kind of fallen into that rhythm. I love how you said that. And I was like, oh, how this time is reminding you of when you're in a writer's retreat in a cottage. Meanwhile, I'm sat in a cupboard, a literal cupboard surrounded by jackets. Because we're literally working from home right now. And you're in the understairs cupboard in your house. Yeah. And my flat is so small that it's not even our stairs.

It's the neighbour above us. You're under someone else's stairs. It's their stairs, yeah. It's interesting you say the thing about having a routine though because I find that is something that I had to develop myself when I was teaching myself how to work from home when I first went full-time comedy. So what's your routine at home?

So, I mean, it used to be just wait until something needs to be done and then get dressed, which sometimes was never. And I would stay in my pyjamas all day. But now I do have a pretty good routine. I've got a big whiteboard that has a checklist that I have to fill out every day. Ooh, nice. And it consists of, I do morning pages every morning when I wake up,

which is three pages of stream of consciousness writing, which for me is a mental health thing. It's just a nice way of skimming off any anxieties or anything off the top of your head so that the rest of the day you feel a bit more with it. It's quite a nice reflective practice to do. And then, so I have to do that first thing. I'm not allowed to look at my phone or anything before I've done that. You're very disciplined. Goodness.

Well, it's, you know, it's hard. It's, it's not an easy thing. It's not something I have to consciously decide to do it on a daily basis, but I always feel better afterwards. So that's what usually helps. I have a stay focused app on my phone, which means that I don't get WhatsApp messages or emails or anything until after 10 a.m. And then after 10 p.m., it blocks all of the things I would normally use to distract myself because otherwise I have all that input and I have trouble sleeping. So if I go to open Twitter after 10 p.m., it's like, no, can't do it. And I'm like, oh, yeah, that's right. I should be winding down and getting ready for bed because Because I'll still allow myself to watch TV and stuff, but it just stops an element of excitement when I'm like, oh, I've thought of a new joke. I'm

going to check my notifications for the next two hours. And so, yeah, so I have that. I try and do 30 minutes of creative play, whether it's drawing or doodling or writing or sticking stuff together or whatever. The idea is that you do something without the point, without having a point, a goal. Yeah. Yeah. It's just, it's fun. So I've started painting. Wow. And then just things like getting dressed. I've got go outside as one of my checklist things because I don't go outside. And obviously it's even harder right now. So physically I have to open the door and step outside and then go back in the house and then I get to tick it off. Oh, really? Wow. Yeah. Well, we've started walking to work. However, obviously we live where we work. So in the morning we get up, we kind of get ready for the day

and I refuse to look at my email before I'm officially starting work. Even though I've got it on my phone, I just will not open the email app. So I just, I haven't got a fancy way of doing it. I just, I only look at Twitter and things like Reddit and stuff in the morning on my phone. Then we walk around the block and it's a 20 minute walk. We go out the front door, we go left, we walk all the way around the block, we get back and then we start work. And that's now our day at work. And at the end of the day, when we decide we're finished work,

we walk the other way back around the block. So we'll go out the front door, go right, go around the other way, reversing our journey and then we're home. That's very cute. It's both giving us exercise and punctuating the day, which we've found very useful. I don't know if we should be encouraging it though, because if everyone went out and did that,

assuming that everyone works roughly the same working hours, there's going to be a lot of people walking past each other in a time when we're supposed to be isolating. Well, the advice is you can still go for walks and get exercise. So we passed three people on the walk this morning and we gave them all a wide, bordering on offensively wide berth. I have seen more people walking outside in my cul-de-sac than I have at any other time. Really? Yeah, I think because people aren't at work and the kids aren't at school. So everybody's walking around outside. That largely defeats the purpose. Yeah, no, I know.

Totally. My solution for people working from home who need to keep moving. This is a challenge I put up on Twitter. And by the time this airs, I should have a video in reply up. And I invite you to join in with this. The Eurovision, I believe, is being cancelled this year. Yeah, very sadly. And Iceland had an incredible entry with a song called Think About Things. And their video has an amazing dance.

Wow. I've not heard or seen this yet. Well, it's simple but hard enough that it takes a few goes to get your head around. So I've challenged myself and others to learn the dance and i'm going to go a step further and try and recreate their music video and post it in reply to that tweet so if you go through my tweets you should be able to find i might pop it on instagram and stuff as well in fact i'll put it on the a problem squared instagram account at a problem squared so this is our official advice is to learn this

dance as a way to get exercise if you can't go for a walk without bumping into other humans yes okay that and create a schedule that you have to tick off got it so if you want to see beck's attempt or at least her initial challenge it'll be at BeckhillComedian, I believe, on Twitter. Yeah, or on our Problem Squared. And for the record, I will look up the video and have a look at this. It sounds very exciting.

The song sounds great. Sadly, because we're not having a Eurovision party this year, that's pretty much all I've got left. However, because I can still walk around the block, I will not be partaking in the learning

and filming of the dance. That's a real shame. Not for me. I feel like you've let down not only our listeners but also yourself yeah i'm okay with that i'm okay oh i've already decided what i'm going to call the video yep it's going to be my isoland entry for eurovision iso like isolation land. Yeah, and it's Iceland. Because I hear ISO and I think like consistent or unchanging, but that's the maths. Right. So I feel like with all this in mind,

we should provide some proper HUD solutions for our listeners. Oh, actual pragmatic advice. Yep. So to refine what we've all discussed, Matt, what is your tip for getting up at a reasonable time? For me, it's a knock-on effect. It's just having a schedule the rest of the time because otherwise I will keep working in the afternoon. I will work into the early evening. I won't eat until late and then I go to bed late and I struggle to get up. Get yourself jet lag. Exactly. And my body clock slips so easily.

So forcing a routine to stop work means I can keep a routine for going to bed. And I've just been setting an alarm for 7.30 every morning. And Lucy and I take turns of making the other person waking up. So we're kind of division of labor on that one. If it helps anyone else listening who struggles like me, especially during the times when it's still dark outside, I have one of those SAD lamp alarms where it over half an hour slowly gets brighter and brighter, which means that by the time I wake up, there's a bit more light in the room. It's a bit harder to fall back asleep. That is very clever. Okay,

what's your advice for staying focused? Oh, don't talk to me. Okay, Bec, what's your advice for staying focused? Oh, don't talk to me. That's literal practical advice for me. Don't phone Bec. That's like an hour wasted. Yeah. I think if you're working from home, create a dedicated workspace.

Oh, that's good. So an area that is specifically for work, preferably away from a relaxation area so if possible try not to work in your bedroom or from your couch because mentally that should be a place that you relax and if you start mixing them across yeah it can be comfortable working from your bed or your couch and I'm not judging you if you are but it might for some of you make it harder to then relax later because your brain is still connecting that to work. So for me, I have a tiny flat. So my office is actually in my kitchen because there is an end of the kitchen that does not have kitchen appliances in it. So I've got a desk and craft cupboards and stuff in there and I work next to the window of my kitchen. And when I'm done, I go into the lounge and don't sit back at the desk. Yeah, you've cleared out a proper nook in the kitchen

where you work. I love my, it's an old drinks cabinet and it is proper gorgeous. I've popped a video up on my Instagram stories as well. And what I'll do is I'll put some pictures up on the Problem Squared Instagram page just because I'm really proud of it. And we're aware there's a certain level of,

you know, assumed privilege. We've all got rooms and other places we can go. I know a lot of people are, like, if you're sharing a house, a lot of people are trapped. They can only work from their bedroom and all these things. And it's tough. Create a corner. Yeah, create a corner. We did this years and years and years ago when Lucy and I were in this tiny place.

We went down to a hardware store and bought a wallpaper table, which is like the cheapest horizontal surface we could find. And then I cut it in half to make it a bit more manageable and just balance that in a corner of our room. And that just became the dedicated working writing zone. So anything we could do to just have slightly different over there's where we work, over here's where we relax makes a difference. So yeah, highly recommended. Yeah. Yeah, absolutely. I'm also interested to see what listeners have done. So if anyone has a little dedicated workspace area now, or you've had one for a while because you work from home normally, send us a tweet at a problem squared, send us a tweet with a photo of your workspace

that I'll get a little thread going or something i love seeing that stuff and we'll both take a photo of us in our workspaces yeah and we'll put the we'll get the ball rolling you can see me in the cupboard you've got to do your cupboard and your kitchen yeah your your studio and your office uh locations and mine's kind of an all-in-one job. Do a little tour. Give us a little tour. I'll give you a little tour. I'll do a little video tour of my office and we'll put that up.

So I think that's a problem solved. Ding. For my final problem, I'm aiming this to you, Matt, because I've been seeing a lot of memes and infographs going around about the infection rate of the COVID-19. Yeah. And I don't know which ones to believe or, you know, because I know that you're all about checking your sources and stuff. There's one in particular I've got here, which I'll post up on a problem squared on Instagram.

We can pop it onto Twitter as well. It says the power of social distancing. on Instagram. We can pop it onto Twitter as well. It says the power of social distancing. And it says now, and it's got one person and that has an arrow that says infects. And then it says five days, 2.5 people infected. And then it says after 30 days, 406 people are infected. That's a lot of people. Then it says 50% less exposure. So I'm guessing that's if you decide to see half of the people every day that you would normally see. Yeah. If you contact or walk past half as many people. Yeah. Then it says one person, then it says after five days,

they infect 1.25 people, which to me, that makes sense mathematically. Half of 2.5 i'll give you that yeah yep and then it says after 30 days only 15 people are infected and it's got a graphic showing that's way fewer people than the 406 yeah yeah exactly if you're infecting two and a half people yeah and then on the last frame it says 75 less exposure which again i think is if you're self-isolating as much as you can one person and then after five days infects 0.625 people for people not doing the calculation that's half of 1.25 they've just half yeah which also does not make sense because you cannot affect infect less than a human if that person is 0.625 of a person, they are already dead. That's a good point. You've got bigger medical issues if you're down to 0.625. Yeah, good point. Actually,

I say that. I'm just proving myself because I remember saying that you could lose quite a lot of your own body mass and cellulite organs in the first episode. So, do you know what? I take it back. You probably could infect 0.625 of a person, but I will argue that they are probably dealing with some bigger issues.

Well, they've got some major money issues that they've had to sell that much of themselves. And then after 30 days, it says only 2.5 people are infected. Yeah. And I'm the sort of person who I think is like most people that these infographs are aimed at. In that I look at that and I go, yeah, that sounds about right. That looks right. But I'm not the sort of person to check the maths behind this. So I wanted to ask you to solve the problem of the maths of infection.

Well, this is my time to shine because I have checked this. So I looked it up. And the first step with checking a meme is just where does it come from? And they were nice enough. They burnt their Twitter handles into the meme image itself. first step with checking a meme is just where does it come from and they were nice enough they've burnt their twitter handles into the meme image itself and obviously that can get cropped off or whatever but i was able to look up a singer lab and that is at the university of california in san diego it's a researcher there robert singer is it's their lab right and so for the first step

it comes from a reputable source but then i was like well how did they do these calculations and so i sat down and i've managed to crack it it took me a little while to try and work out how they were doing the calculation and if i think it makes sense and i've got a spreadsheet here that i've got working so i'm just resetting it to 2.5 infection rate so what they're basically saying is if you get the coronavirus, you're infectious for a five day window. And again, I've not fact checked that, but that feels about right with what I've seen online. And so if you're infectious for five days, there's a thing called the R0 or R0 infection rate. And that's the average number of people

an infected person will infect over the entire time that they are infectious. So you're right to point out fractions of people. And in fact, when you do the calculations, you always have to keep in fractional amounts of people, but you've got to remember that's an average. Right. So you're right.

No one individual can infect two and a half people. But if you've got a bunch of people who are infectious, then it can be an average of two and a half. And so because you're doing these as average numbers, you've got to keep the fractions of humans, even though it seems ridiculous. But they've rounded it at the very end. So they're 406 people infected.

That should actually be 406.23 people. Oh. But to avoid these sorts of things they've they've just rounded it off um so so it's good it's a good balance of going into the detail in the infographic but also rounding it and making it easier to understand so i'm very impressed with what they've done so what they've done is start by assuming initially only one person has the disease and over the course of five days while they're infectious another two and a half people catch it from them which means at the end of that week there's now three and a half people who have the disease one person who's no longer infectious

but they have had it and two and a half people who've just caught it and then a week later you still got the original person who's now gotten better. You've got the two and a half people, they've gotten better, but they've infected an average of two and a half people each. So two and a half times two and a half, two and a half squared is six and a quarter. There's now six and a quarter people who are infectious. So it's trickle down virus. Yeah. And so what you end up doing, for those of you who are curious about the mathematics, is you end up just adding the powers. So they've done it for 30 days, but it's five day windows. So they've actually done it for the first six intervals. And what they've done is the one person plus the infection rate, plus the infection rate squared, plus the infection rate squared plus the infection rate cubed plus it to the power

of four power five power six so they're adding that series of powers of the infection rate to get you the total number of cases so far and there's a slightly important distinction some graphics will show you new cases and some show you all the cases so far. So that famous plot, the kind of the flatten the curve and keep it underneath the capacity of the health service, that's a plot of new cases, which is why you want to, it gradually goes back down to zero and you get other plots like this, which is the total number of people have had it so far. Okay. So when it says 406 people infected, it means infected in total, including the first person. But it's not 406 people who are contagious.

No. At that point, only 244 of those people will still be contagious. Which is still a lot. That's still a lot more than there was than the original first person. Exactly. Exactly. So it's just always a case of looking at the stats and going, is this total people who have had it or is this people who've got it recently and are still infectious? Okay.

And there is a side point to this, which is eventually you run out of people to infect. Yeah. And so all the math that's in this meme and the math that I've recreated is just assuming there's a much bigger population of people out there. There's actually a slight difference between what's called an exponential growth to something called logistical or logistic growth, which is where you then have to factor in the size of the population and that you're running out of new people to infect. But given this is all about the start of the infection, they're identical. So exponential is fine. Then what gets interesting, so the point they're kind of trying to make is a slight difference in how many people you infect on average makes a big difference to the total number of people who are infected later. And the graphic's great, but what it's not showing is the

other scary thing about exponential growth. So one thing that's scary about exponential growth is how big it gets. And this just absolutely explodes. But what it's not showing is the fact that it starts off deceptively small and slow, and then nothing has to change, and suddenly it'll explode. And nothing's changed. It's the same infection rate, but it goes from being almost unnoticeable to exploding. So I've got an example where I looked up estimates for the R0, the infection rate of coronavirus. And again, I'm not a doctor. I'm not medically qualified. My Googling, people seem to estimate it's between one and a half and three and a half. And the reason why it's such

a big range is because if people do social distance and if these things are controlled, you make a big difference to the infection rate. But if it was three and a half, I've got an analogy here. So let's say you're at home and you've got some rice and rice is like, mathematically, that's like the famous example for exponential growth is putting rice because it starts small and suddenly accumulates. And historically, for some reason, it's always been rice, which is kind of fun. So if let's say you got some rice and the first day you throw one grain of rice into your living room. Okay. And the next day you throw in three and a half times as much.

So you throw in three and a half. And the next day you throw in three and a half times as much. So you throw in three and a half. And the next day you throw in three and a half times as much as the previous day. A week later, you will only have 180 milliliters of rice in your living room. And you're like, oh, that's not so, that's fine. That's fine. In fact, after two weeks, you'll have about a meter cubed, which don't get me wrong. It's quite a lot of rice. It's quite a lot of rice. It's quite a lot of rice.

It's a big pile of rice. I would notice that in my living room. You'd notice it, but it's manageable. After three weeks, your house would be full. Like there would not be a single empty space in your house after three weeks. Wow. And after a month, after 33 days, you'd have enough rice to fill every single house in the UK. That's a lot of rice.

That's a lot of rice. Think about all the fixed phones. I know. There'd be no moisture in any phone anywhere. It goes from being quite benign, like, oh, a little bit of rice. That's fine. It's manageable. And you're not changing the rate at which you're increasing how much rice you're throwing in.

and you're not changing the rate at which you're increasing how much rice you're throwing in. It just hits the explosive part of the exponential curve and just races away right at the end. It just explodes. However, if you did the same experiment, but you were at the lower bound 1.5 times as much each day, and that's kind of the lower bound of what we think coronavirus is doing at the moment. After three weeks, instead of filling your house, you'd only have 200 milliliters of rice. And after 33 days, where previously you would have filled every house in the UK, you would have about 39 liters. Which is still a lot. It's still a lot, but it's less than a bathtub. It's know 22 liter bottles of milk like it's containable

it's not every single house in the uk and so what i think is particularly scaring about exponential growth is it starts off slowly yeah and you never you don't notice it and it feels manageable but if you don't change the infection rate then it's going to explode yeah but the other thing is if you don't change the infection rate early on, it's not as important what the infection rate is. It's when it hits that explosive bit. So you'll see things like in the UK where they were dragging their feet on closing schools because they're worried suddenly you'll have fewer healthcare workers because their kids aren't in school and so they've got childcare concerns concerns but then what you need to do is you've got to squash the infection rate when you're hitting the explosive part of the growth and if you don't it makes such a big difference

like the slightest change in that infection rate makes a huge difference to the rate at which the growth happens at. So the meme checks out, but it's even a bit more terrifying than that infographic is showing. And so that's why everyone's banging on about social distancing. It does make a huge difference. I think if kids have to stay home without anyone to look after them, give them a bathtub of rice. There you go. Give them 39 liters of rice.

Get them to count that. That'll be grand. That's food, entertainment. What else do of rice. There you go. Give them 39 liters of rice. Get them to count that. That'll be grand. That's food, entertainment. What else do you need? There you go. It's an exponential amount of rice. So there you are. I hope me and my spreadsheet have managed to solve that problem for you. I would say absolutely. That is a problem solved. Excellent. Ding. And that's it for this episode. Thank you very much for listening. We very much appreciate it. And thank you so much to everyone who's supporting us on Patreon.

It means we can keep making these things. We've had to buy some extra kit now. Yeah. So we can record back properly at home. So, you know, costs are ongoing. And actually, to be honest, if you are someone who's fortunate enough to still have a regular income and you're working from home, fine. If you can support artists, I mean, not just us, but people who normally perform for a living are now really feeling the pinch. So if you can support us included, but any artists or people on Patreon so they can keep doing what they do and they can make it through this, that would be hugely appreciated.

And thank you so much to all our very generous supporters already. Yeah. If you do have a normal source of income at the moment, any money that you are saving from not going out and not attending things and not going to movies. Yeah. Yeah. We're not saying spend more on the arts.

Just keep spending on the arts. That's right. Yeah, yeah. And also so many people not just us are putting out more online content so that those of you who are self-isolating do have things to keep you entertained while you're at home so keep an eye out for those things as well different ways of supporting everyone and we're still putting stuff on our instagram yeah so uh i don't know if i mentioned it enough in this episode but uh our instagram is at a problem squared and we also

have a twitter which is at a problem squared and we also have a twitter which is at a problem squared yeah so please do check out we're doing send us your photos of your workspaces and i'm going to put some details in the show notes all my assumptions uh so like for the record all my calculations were based on long grain rice there you are and i assume that beck lives in a 10 meter by 10 meter by 10 meter empty void cube. That was my assumption for Beck's apartment. Wow, you've given me such high ceilings. Well, you know, I just simplified the calculations.

And so there you are. I don't know where the cupboard under the stairs fits in that, but I assumed you live in an empty cube. You know what? I am actually going to measure my flat as best I can after this to see. Oh, that's really interesting. Whether your assumption was correct. Oh, no, I'm super curious.

We'll do that. We'll talk about it on the next episode. Oh, okay. Oh, good. Well, it won't be the next one because we're about to record that one. And that's going to be virus free. Yeah, no, it'll be in that one. I'll do it in our break.

Are you going to do it? You're going to do it right now? Yeah, yeah, yeah. Okay, deal. Okay, right. You do that. We'll record the next one. Everyone'll do it and I'll break. Are you going to do it? Are you going to do it right now? Yeah, yeah, yeah. Okay, deal. Okay, right. You do that. We'll record the next one. Everyone, thank you for listening.

Please get the next episode when it comes out on the last day of the month like normal. Bye.