All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg - E129: Sam Altman plays chess with regulators, AI's "nuclear" potential, big pharma bundling & more

Episode Date: May 20, 2023

(0:00) Bestie intros!: Reddit Performance Reviews (5:14) Quick AIS 2023 update (6:27) AI Senate hearing: Sam Altman playing chess with regulators, open-source viability (21:25) Regulatory capture angl...e, "preemptive regulation," how AI relates to nuclear, insider insights from the White House's AI summit (43:33) Elon hires new Twitter CEO (48:46) Lina Khan moves to block Amgen's $27.8B acquisition of Horizon Therapeutics (1:02:30) Apple's AR goggles are reportedly being unveiled at WWDC in early June, platform shift potential, how it deviates from Apple's prior launch strategies (1:07:45) Residential and commercial real estate headwinds (1:15:29) Unrest in SF and NYC after two recent tragic incidents ended in death (1:24:20) Soros political motivations for backing progressive DAs Follow the besties: https://twitter.com/chamath https://linktr.ee/calacanis https://twitter.com/DavidSacks https://twitter.com/friedberg Follow the pod: https://twitter.com/theallinpod https://linktr.ee/allinpodcast Intro Music Credit: https://rb.gy/tppkzl https://twitter.com/yung_spielburg Intro Video Credit: https://twitter.com/TheZachEffect Referenced in the show: https://techcrunch.com/2023/05/18/psst-gary-marcus-is-happy-to-help-regulate-ai-on-behalf-of-the-u-s-government/ https://twitter.com/chamath/status/1658913074106236931 https://www.mosaicml.com/blog/mpt-7b https://huggingface.co/spaces/HuggingFaceH4/open_llm_leaderboard https://artificialintelligenceact.eu https://futurism.com/the-byte/warren-buffett-ai-atom-bomb https://www.cnbc.com/2023/05/12/nbcuniversal-ad-chief-yaccarino-resigns-as-sources-say-shes-in-talks-to-be-twitter-ceo.html https://www.wsj.com/articles/ftc-poised-to-block-amgens-27-8-billion-deal-for-horizon-therapeutics-a9c1b499 https://www.ftc.gov/system/files/ftc_gov/pdf/2310037amgenhorizoncomplainttropi.pdf https://www.benefitspro.com/2023/05/12/pbms-the-brokers-who-control-drug-prices-finally-get-washingtons-attention https://sharegpt.com/c/O6OKM9D https://www.wsj.com/articles/apple-mixed-reality-headset-9213ac1b https://twitter.com/PalmerLuckey/status/1657828947877560323 https://twitter.com/DavidSacks/status/1658955195450286081 https://www.foxnews.com/us/witness-jordan-neely-chokehold-death-calls-daniel-penny-hero https://www.reddit.com/r/nyc/comments/1njfls/try_to_stay_away_from_the_michael_jackson https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1984_New_York_City_Subway_shooting https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Guardian_Angels https://www.messynessychic.com/2019/03/26/in-the-shadows-with-nycs-self-styled-guardian-angels https://www.eviemagazine.com/post/media-falsely-representing-jordan-neely-10-year-old-photos-crucial-information https://twitter.com/Jason/status/1655716240500080640 https://www.foxnews.com/politics/george-soros-son-visited-white-house-dozen-times-since-biden-took-office-records-show

Transcript
Discussion (0)
Starting point is 00:00:00 I have a little surprise for my besties. Everybody's been getting incredible adulation. People have been getting incredible feedback on the podcast. It is a phenomenon, as we know. I thought it was time for us to do performance reviews of each bestie. Now, I, as executive producer, I'm not in a position to do your performance reviews. I too need to have a performance review.
Starting point is 00:00:24 So I thought I would let the audience do your performance reviews. I too need to have a performance review. So I thought I would let the audience do their performance reviews. So we went and we're debuting a new feature today at this very moment. It's called Reddit Performance Review. Oh, God. Q some music here, some graphics. Reddit Performance Reviews.
Starting point is 00:00:38 And so we'll start off with you, David Friedberg. This proves why you haven't been successful in life so far. Haven't been successful in life so Kidding we are not trying to build a successful enterprise instead of keeping the judgment to yourself Which is what all elite performers do yes you turned it over to a bunch of mids on reddit Yes, no they were on saying it they were already doing it. We just collected it what elucidation where you gonna get from reddit Yeah, really let's not ruin the bit. Do you think Elon does 360 performance reviews? Unread it. Unreadable thing. You know how many 360 performance reviews I've done in my life? Zero. Of course. And that's why this will be so entertaining. Okay, go, go start off with me.
Starting point is 00:01:18 Let's hear how it's going to work. You are going to be presented with the candid feedback that you've gotten in the last 30 days on Reddit. But for the first time, and you have to read it out loud to the class, freeberg, you'll go first. Here's your first piece of candid feedback in your 360 from the Reddit in cells. Go ahead, freeberg, read it out loud. David Friedberg deserves more hate. He and the others have made it their mission to convince us that reforming social
Starting point is 00:01:45 securities the only way forward to survive. He hides behind this nerdy A political persona and then goes hard right out of nowhere. It sacks fearmongered about the deficit as an excuse to restructure entitlement programs. We would see that as the partisan right wing take it is. When freeberg does it, we're supposed to act like he has no skin in this game. He's just the science guy. No, he's a rich guy who would rather work your grandparents to death than pay an extra five percent tax.
Starting point is 00:02:15 All right, there's your review, very good. I think you took it well. And you don't have to find out. Don't be just taking it. Just account or briefly, I have highlighted multiple times. I think we're going to 70% tax rates, but hey, you know, teach their own. Everyone's got an opinion.
Starting point is 00:02:30 That won't generate more revenue. The history's any guide. Yeah. Well, the audience has been waiting for this. David Sacks has never taken a piece of feedback. And the feedback he has gotten, he hasn't taken well. So here we go, David, here's your performance for you. Go ahead.
Starting point is 00:02:43 I just read this. Go at the bit. Come on, it's a little feedback for you. Come on. All right, and I'm gonna do this to it. I haven't seen mine Oh Nick pulled these Nick polies. This is not These are actual pieces of real feedback That's it get out of here The thing about David's act of he wasn't rich, everyone would dismiss him as being post-stupid and boring. And the secret to this wealth is just follow Peter T. Lawrence's college.
Starting point is 00:03:11 It's like if Turtle from Entro, I've pretended to be a public intellectual. It's great. Oh, it's good to hear you. Oh, no. Okay. So the dictator has never had a 360 review. He informs us. And I think his staff, you know, for all the people at social capital
Starting point is 00:03:26 You can get in on this by just posting to Reddit since he went to 360 reviews at social capital. Go ahead Let's pull up your months feedback for the quarter Good Math here. She's the biggest self-serving leech as long as he can make a dollar trade on it He will burn anything down to the ground Fuck the consequences to society or anyone else. This was actually the good part of it. It was like 60.
Starting point is 00:03:48 Which was the positive. Those were the pros. Yeah, why did you give him such a good review? That's the truth. That's the truth. Yeah, I got to read mine. I haven't seen this. I'm bracing for impact here.
Starting point is 00:03:59 What's the critique exactly? What is the critique from all these? From all these? From that? I mean, that's like actually pretty accurate. All right, here we go. I got to remind. Okay. I can't wait for AI to replace Jekyll. Jekyll is the least skilled knowledge worker on the show.
Starting point is 00:04:15 I think he has about three shows left before AI replaced with his hosting skills and ability to trick dentists into investing in hype. He puts, that's pretty good. That last part. Ooh. Ooh. Someone asked me, I do have a lot of dentists friends in the funds. Okay, I'm going to pay for a lot of kids dentists school. Great idea.
Starting point is 00:04:36 Great idea, Jake Hel to give us. Yeah, what a great bit. There's one group one. There's one for the whole group. This is a group survey. This is our group 360. Vote to rename the podcast. The vote is binding and the podcast will be renamed. Three billionaires in J. Cal. Three kind of
Starting point is 00:04:50 smart guys and J. Cal. Three assholes and free bread. That's a pretty good survey. That was going to be good. That's a good one. All right, everybody. Welcome to the all in podcast. We're still here episode 129 all in summit 2023 general mission sold out. Too many people apply for scholarships, that's on pause. And there's a couple of VIP tickets left, get them while they're hot, just search for all in summit, freeburg, anything to add. We'll just get through the grift real quick here. I did, I did. No, it's good.
Starting point is 00:05:34 Did I get it all right? That was it? Yeah, I mean, just more demand than we predicted. We look for a bigger venue, couldn't find one. We're, I think we're excited about Royce Hall. It's still, as you pointed out, two and a half times the size of last year. So we want to make sure it's a great quality event. But unfortunately way too many folks want to go. So we have to kind of pause, take it sales. What's my wine budget? $300 per person per night, $1,000 per VIP
Starting point is 00:05:58 per event. Thank you. I will handle it from here. So there's 750 of them. So I think you have $750,000 in wine budget. Thank you. I mean, I just can't believe I just gave, I just bought 750,000. Oh, we got to buy what? Bye, guys. I'm going to curate an incredible wine here today, by the way. He's doing a summary Hosh. Summary Hosh.
Starting point is 00:06:24 All right, let's get to work. Let's get to work. Okay. The Senate had a hearing this week for AI. Sam Altman was there as well as Gary Marcus, a professor from NYU. That's an overpriced college in New York City and Christina Montgomery, the chief privacy and trust officer from IBM, which had Watson before anybody else was in the I business And I think they deprecated it or they stopped working on it was quite paradoxical
Starting point is 00:06:51 There were a couple of very interesting moments Sam claim the US should create a separate agency to oversee AI I guess is in the Chimouth camp. He wants the agency to issue licenses to train and use AI models, a little regulatory capture there, as we say in the biz. He also claims, and this was interesting, dovetailing with Elon's CMBC interview with I think Dave Farber, which is very good, that he owns no equity in open AI whatsoever
Starting point is 00:07:22 and was quote, doing it because he loves it. Any thoughts, Chema, you did say that this would happen two months ago, and here we are two months later, and exactly what you said would happen is in the process of happening. Regulation, licensing, and regulatory capture. Sam went a little further than I sketched out a few months ago, which is that he also said that it may make sense for us to issue licenses for these models to even be compiled. And for these models, do actually do the learning. And I thought that that was really interesting because what it speaks to is a form of KYC,
Starting point is 00:08:05 right? Know your customer. And again, when you look at markets that can be subject to things like fraud and manipulation, right, where you can have a lot of bad actors banking is the most obvious one. We use things like KYC to make sure that money flows are happening appropriately and between parties that where the intention is legal. And so I think that that's actually probably the most important new bit of perspective that he is adding as somebody right in the middle of it, which is that you should apply to this
Starting point is 00:08:38 agency to get a license to then allow you to compile a model. And I think that that was a really interesting thing. The other thing that I said, and I said this in a tweet just a couple of days ago, is I'm really surprised actually where this is the first time in modern history that I can remember, where we've invented something, we being Silicon Valley. And the people in Silicon Valley are the ones
Starting point is 00:09:02 that are more circumspect than the folks on Wall Street or other areas. And if you see, if you gauge the sentiment, the hedge funds and family offices right now are just giddy about AI. And it turns out if you look at the 13 Fs, they're all long and video and AMD. But if you actually look at the other side of the coin, which is the folks in Silicon Valley that's actually making it, the rest of us are like, hey, let's crawl before we walk before we run. Yeah, let's think about guardrails. Let's be thoughtful here. And so the big money people are saying, let's place bets, and the people building in are saying, hey, let's be thoughtful, SAC, which is opposite to what it's always been, I think.
Starting point is 00:09:41 Right. We're like, hey, let's run with this. And Wall Street's like, prove it to me. Sacks, you are a less regulation guy. You are a free market monster. I've heard you've been called. You don't believe that we should license this. What do you think about what you're seeing here? And there is some cynical thoughts
Starting point is 00:10:01 about what we just saw happen in terms of people in the lead wanting to maintain their lead by creating red tape. What are your thoughts? Yeah, of course. I think Sam just went straight for the end game here, which is regulatory capture. Normally, when a tech executive goes and testifies at these hearings, they're in the hot seat and they get grilled.
Starting point is 00:10:21 That didn't happen here because Sam Alman basically bought into the narrative of these senators, and he basically conceded all these risks associated with AI, he talked about how chat GPT style models, if unregulated, could increase online misinformation, bolster cyber criminals, even threatened confidence in election systems. So he basically bought into the center's narrative. And like you said, agreed to create a new agency that would license models and can take licenses away. He said that he would create safety standards, specific tests that a model has to pass before.
Starting point is 00:11:00 It can be deployed. He says he would require independent audits who can say the model is or is an compliance. And by basically buying into their narrative and agreeing to everything they want, which is to create all these new regulations in a new agency, I think that Sam is pretty much guaranteeing that he'll be one of the people who gets to help shape the new agency and the rules they're gonna operate under and what these independent
Starting point is 00:11:26 audits are gonna, how they're gonna determine what's in compliance. So he is basically putting a big boat around his own in-compancy here. And? So yes, it is a smart strategy for him. But the question is, do we really need any of this stuff? And what you heard at the hearing is that just like with just about every other tech issue the centers on the jishri committee didn't
Starting point is 00:11:50 exhibit any real understanding of the technology and so they all generally talked about their own hobby horses so you know you heard from center of blackburn she wants to protect songwriters Halley wants to stop anti conservative bias clubbuchar was touting a couple of bills that have her name on them. One's called the JCPA journalism competition. Preservation. What does Bernie Sanders want to do? He wants to protect the one percent of the one percent. Yeah.
Starting point is 00:12:15 Durbin hates section 230. That was the hobby horse. He was writing and then Senator Blumenthal was obsessed. That someone had published deep fakes of himself. So you know, all of these different senators had different theories of harm that they were promoting, and they were all basically hammers looking for a nail. You know, they all wanted to regulate this thing, and they didn't really pay much if any attention to the ways that existing laws could already be used to stop any of these things.
Starting point is 00:12:41 If you commit a crime with AI, there are plenty of criminal laws. Every single thing they talked about could be handled through existing law if they are out of being harms at all. Yeah. But they want to jump right to creating a new agency and regulations. And Sam, I think, did the, you know, expedient thing here, which is basically buy into it in order to. This was a big chest game.
Starting point is 00:13:02 And this is a chess game. Sam got to the mid game. He traded all the pieces. It went right to the end game. Let's just try to be a insider. If this was a chess game, Sam got to the mid game, he traded all the pieces, and went right to the end game. Let's just try to checkmate here. I've got the lead, I got the 10 billion from Microsoft. Everybody else get a license and try to catch up. Friedberg, we have Schemaq Pro regulation licensing,
Starting point is 00:13:17 I think, or just being pretty thoughtful about it. There you got a sax being typically a free market monster, let the laws be what they are, but these senators are going to do regulatory cap for. Where do you, as a Sultan of science, stand on this very important issue? I think there is a more important kind of broader set of trends that are worth noting and that the folks doing these hearings and having these conversations are aware of, which implies why they might be saying the things that they're saying. That's not necessarily that regulatory capture.
Starting point is 00:13:51 And that is that a lot of these models can be developed and generated to be much smaller. We're seeing models that can effectively run on an iPhone. We're seeing a number of open source models that are being published now. There's a group called Mosaic ML last week. They published what looks like a pretty good quality model that has, you know, a very large kind of token input, which means you can do a lot with it. And that model can be downloaded and used by anyone for free, you know, really good open source license that they provided on that model.
Starting point is 00:14:22 And that's really just the tip of the iceberg on what's going on, which is that these models are very quickly becoming ubiquitous, commoditized, small, and effectively are able to move to and be run on the edge of the network. As a result, that means that it's very hard to see who's using what models how behind the products and tools that they're building. And so if that's the trend, then it becomes very hard
Starting point is 00:14:46 for a regulatory agency to go in and audit every server or every computer on a network and say, what model are you running? Is that an approved model? Is that not an approved model? It's almost like having a regulatory agency that has to go in and audit and assess whether a Linux upgrade or some sort of open source platform that's being run on some server is appropriately vetted and checked.
Starting point is 00:15:12 And so it's almost like a fool's errand. And so if I'm running one of these companies and I'm trying to get Congress off my butt and get all these regulators off my butt, I'm going to say go ahead and regulate us. Because the truth is there really isn't a great or easy path or ability to do that and there certainly won't be in five or ten years. Once these models all move on to the edge of the network and they're all being turned around all the time every day and there's a great evolution underway. So I actually take a point of view that it's not just that this is necessarily bad and there's
Starting point is 00:15:45 cronyism going on. I think that the point of view is just that this is going to be a near impossible task to try and track and approve LLMs and audit servers that are running LLMs and audit apps and audit what's behind the tools that everyday people are using. And I wish everyone the best of luck in trying to do so. But that's kind of the joke of the whole thing. It's like, let's go ahead and paddle these Congress people on the shoulder and say,
Starting point is 00:16:11 you got it. You're right. There you have it, folks. Wrong answer, schmothasax, right answer, freeberg. If you were to look at hugging face, if you don't know what that is, it's a basically an open source repository of all of the LLMs.
Starting point is 00:16:23 The cat is out of the bag, the horses have left the barn. If you look at what I'm showing on the screen here, this is the open LLM leaderboard. It's kind of buried on hugging face. If you haven't been to hugging face, this is where developers show their work, they share their work, and they kind of compete with each other in a social network,
Starting point is 00:16:40 showing all their contributions. And what they do here is, and this is super fascinating, they have a series of tests that will take an LLM, the language model, and they will have it do science questions, that would be for grade school. They'll do a test of mathematics, US history, computer science, etc. There's a jeopardy test, too. I don't know if it's on here, but the jeopardy test is really good. It's like straight up jeopardy trivia and see if it can answer the questions. Yeah. Which actually Friedberg was actually his high school jeopardy championship three years in a row.
Starting point is 00:17:12 But anyway, on this report, you can see the language models are outhacing what OpenAI did. I'm sorry, ClosedAI is what I call it now because they're closed source. Close AI and Bard have admitted that internal person at Bard said the language models here are now outpacing what they're able to do with much more resources. Many hands makes for Lightwork. The open source models are going to fit on your phone or the latest Apple Silicon. I think the cat's out of the bag. I don't know how they pull it back in. Does that mean incompatible about that, what Fribert just said with what I said.
Starting point is 00:17:47 In fact, Fribert's point bolsters my point. It's highly impractical to regulate open source software in this way. Also, when you look at that list of things that people are doing on hugging face, there's nothing nefarious about it. And all the harms that were described are already illegal and can be prosecuted.
Starting point is 00:18:03 You need some special agency You know giving it seal of approval again. This is going to replace Permissionless innovation which is what has defined the software industry and especially open source with the need To develop some connection or relationship and lobbying in Washington to go get your project approved Hmm, and there's no really good reason for this, except for the fact that the senators on the Judiciary Committee and all of Washington really once more control so they can get more donations. So I have a question.
Starting point is 00:18:32 Do you think that creating the DMV and requiring a driver's license limits the ability for people to learn how to drive? The DMV is like the classic example of how government doesn't work. I don't know why you'd wanna make that your example. I mean, people have to spend all day waiting and all day. He sends people to it.
Starting point is 00:18:50 He's gotta be ID-pro. You gotta spend all day waiting and all day waiting and all day waiting and all day waiting and all day waiting and all day waiting and all day waiting and all day waiting and all day waiting and all day waiting and all day waiting and all day waiting and all day waiting and all day waiting and all day waiting and all day waiting and all day waiting and all day waiting and all day waiting and all day waiting
Starting point is 00:18:59 and all day waiting and all day waiting and all day waiting and all day waiting and all day waiting and all day waiting and all day waiting and all day waiting and all day waiting and all day waiting and all day waiting and all day waiting and all day waiting and all day waiting and all day waiting and all day waiting and all day waiting and all day waiting and all day waiting and all day waiting and all day waiting and all day waiting and all day waiting and all day waiting and all day and all day waiting and all day waiting and all day waiting and all day waiting waiting and all day waiting and all day waiting and all day waiting and all day waiting and all day waiting and all day waiting and all day waiting If you create an agency where people have to go get their permission, it's a licensing scheme. You're going to be waiting in some line of untold lengths. It won't be like a physical line at the DMV building. It's going to be a virtual line where you're in some queue where there's probably going
Starting point is 00:19:14 to be some overwork regulator who doesn't even know how this was to approve your project. They're just going to be trying to cover their ass because if the project ends up being something nefarious, then they get blamed for it. So that's what's going to end up happening. Let me also highlight something that I think is maybe... I think the gutting image might be better, but a little bit misunderstood. But, you know, an AI model is an algorithm,
Starting point is 00:19:37 so it's a piece of software that takes data in and spits data out. And, you know, we have algorithms that are written by humans, we have algorithms that have been, you know, written by machines, these are machine learn models, which is what a lot of what people are calling AI today is effectively an extension of and out of. And so the idea that a particular algorithm is differentiated from another algorithm is also what makes this very difficult because these are algorithms that are embedded and sit within products and applications that an end user and end customer ultimately uses and I just sent you guys a link to the you know the EU has been working towards passing this.
Starting point is 00:20:19 There we go there a couple of weeks ahead of these conversations in the US. There are a couple of weeks ahead of these conversations in the US. But as you read through this AI Act and the proposal that it's put forth, it almost becomes the kind of thing that you say, I just don't know if these folks really understand how the technology works because it's almost as if they're going to audit and have an assessment of the risk level of every software application out there. And that the tooling and the necessary infrastructure to be able to do that just makes no sense in the context of open source software, in the context of an open internet, in the context of how quickly software and applications and tools evolve
Starting point is 00:21:00 and you make tweaks to an algorithm and you got to resubmit it for authorization. Oh, really? Reoccuration. Sure. Their number one job, Friedberg, is going to be to protect jobs. So anything that in any way infringes on somebody's ability to be employed in a position, whether it's an artist or a writer or a developer, they're going to say, you can't use these tools or they're going to try to throttle them to try to protect jobs because that's the number one job of all three of you, do you guys think
Starting point is 00:21:26 that this was Sam's way of pulling up the ladder behind him? Of course. No, 100%. Just like, no. Absolutely it is. And it's because, you can prove it. He made open AI, close AI,
Starting point is 00:21:37 by making it not open source. If you're Sam, you're smart enough to know how quickly the models are commoditizing and how many different models there are that can provide similar degrees of functionality as you just pointed out, J-CAL. So I don't think it's about trying to lock in your model. I think it's about recognizing the impracticality
Starting point is 00:21:57 of creating some regulatory regime around model auditing. And so you're very, so that in that world, in that scenario where you have that vision you have that foresight do you go to congress and tell them that they're dumb to regulate a i or do you go to congress and you say great you should regulate a uh-ah knowing that it's like hey yeah you should go ahead and stop the sun from shining you know like it's just yeah so basically he's telling him to do that because he knows they can't no therefore he gets all the points all the joy points all the social credit the i don't want to't. Therefore, he gets all the points, all the joy points,
Starting point is 00:22:25 all the social credit, I don't want to say, virtual signaling, but he gets all the credit, relationship credit with Washington, for saying what they want to hear and reflecting back to them. Even though he knows they can't be with Facebook's open model, which is number one. Yeah, there is historical precedent. Interesting.
Starting point is 00:22:40 I do. For companies that are facing congressional scrutiny, to go to Congress and say, go ahead and regulate us as a way of creating some relief and getting everyone to take a breather and a sigh of relief and be like, okay, the industry is with us. You know, they're... Gardez strategy. What do you think of the Gardez strategy? He's pulling here.
Starting point is 00:22:51 What's Gardez strategy? I think that's in chess when you are going to take the queen. What's the second? Anyway, what do you think of history? I think it's a very interesting thing. I think that's the first thing that I've ever seen. I think that's the first thing that I've seen. I think that's the first thing that I've seen.
Starting point is 00:23:00 I think that's the first thing that I've seen. I think that's the first thing that I've seen. I think that's the first thing that I've seen. I think that's the first thing that I've seen. I think that's the first thing that I've seen. I think that's the first thing that I've seen. I think that's the first thing that I've seen. I think that's the first thing that Gardez? I think that's in chess when you are going to take the queen. What? Anyway, what do you think of his chess moves? I can guarantee you that's not a strategy in chess.
Starting point is 00:23:13 So I think it is a chess move, nonetheless. Is he pulling up the ladder sax or no? I don't think that's his number one goal, but I think it is the result. And so I think the goal here is, I think he's got two paths in front of him when you go to testify like this. You can either resist and they will put you in the hot scene and just grill you for a few hours or you can sort of concede and you buy into their narrative and then you kind of
Starting point is 00:23:43 get through the hearing without being grilled. And so I think on that level, it's preferable just to kind of play ball. And then the other thing is that by playing ball, you get to be part of the Insiders Club that's going to shape these regulations. And that will, I wouldn't say it's a ladder coming up. I think it's more of a moat, because it's not that the ladder comes up and nobody else can get in, but the regulations are gonna be a pretty big mode around major incumbents who know they qualify
Starting point is 00:24:10 for this because we're gonna write these standards. So at the end of the day, if you're someone in Sam's shoes, you're like, why resist and make myself a target? Or I'll just buy into the narrative and help shape the regulations, and it's good for my business. I like the analysis, gentlemen. This is a perfect analysis.
Starting point is 00:24:27 Let me ask you a topic, question. To me what is the commercial incentive from your point of view to ask for regulation and to be pro-regulation? Your pro-regulation, can you just highlight for me, at least what you think, the commercial reason is to do that. How do you benefit from that?
Starting point is 00:24:44 Not you personally, but generally, like, where does benefit arise? I think that certain people in a sphere of influence and I would put us in that category have to have the intellectual capacity to see beyond ourselves and ask what's for the greater good. I think Buffett is right two weeks ago. He Equated AI to nuclear weapons, which is an incredibly powerful technology whose genie
Starting point is 00:25:13 You can't put back in the bottle whose 99.9% of use cases are Generally quite societally positive, but the 0.1% of use cases destroys humanity. And so I think you guys are unbelievably naive on this topic and you're letting your ideology fight your common sense. The reality is that there are probably 95 billion trillion use cases that are incredibly positive, but the 1, 1000 negative use cases are so destructive and they're equally possible. And the reason they're equally possible, and this is where I think there's a lot of intellectual dishonesty here, is we don't even know how transformers work.
Starting point is 00:25:56 The best thing that happened when Facebook open source Lama was also that somebody stealthily released all the model weights. Yeah. Okay, so I don't think that- I don't think a little bit for any of what we're talking about. So there's the model and there's the weights. Think about it as it's a solution to a problem. The solution looks like a polynomial equation. Okay, let's take a very simple one. Let's take Pythagorean theorem.
Starting point is 00:26:20 X squared plus Y squared equals Z squared. Okay, so if you want to solve an answer to a problem, you have these weights, you have these variables, and you have these weights associated with it. The slope of a line, y equals mx plus b. Okay? What a computer does with AI is it figures out what the variables are, and it figures out what the weights are.
Starting point is 00:26:39 The answer to identifying images flawlessly turns out to be 2x plus 7, where x equals this thing. Now take that example and multiply it by 500 billion parameters and 500 billion weights, and that is what an AI model essentially gives us as an answer to a question. So even when Facebook released Lama, what they essentially gave us was the equation, but not the weights. And then what this guy did, I think it was an intern apparently or somebody, he just looked the weights so that we immediately knew what the structure of the equation looked like. So that's what we're basically solving against.
Starting point is 00:27:22 But we don't know how these things work. We don't really know how transformers work And so this is my point when I think you guys are right about the overwhelming majority of the use cases But there will be people who can nefariously create havoc in chaos And I think you got to slow the whole ship down to prevent those few folks Okay, ruining it for everybody. Shema, hold on. Hold on. Let me just talk with Shema. Hold on.
Starting point is 00:27:48 I haven't had a chance to chime in on my position. So I'd like to just make my own. Find me. Nobody cares. Okay. Well, I do. I think actually I split the difference here a little bit. I don't think it needs to be an agency in licensing.
Starting point is 00:27:57 I do think we have to have a commission and we do need to have people being thoughtful about those thousand use cases. Shema, because they are going to cause societal harm or things that we cannot anticipate. And then number two, for the Neophyte with the 1600 rating on chess.com, Sachs, Gardez, an announcement to the opponent that their queen is under direct attack, similar to the announcement of Czech. The warning was customary until the early 20th century. So since you do not know the history of Czech, now you've learned something. Until the early 20th century. Okay, well, since I've only played
Starting point is 00:28:28 chess in the 20th and 21st centuries, I'm gonna wear that. J.K.L. and Frances Brown's Gar de, Gar de. Play them on the feet. Gar de. Go ahead, Freyberg. In the context of what we're talking about, that models are becoming smaller and can be run on the edge. And there's obviously hundreds and thousands of variants of these open source models that have good effect and perhaps compete with some of these models that you're mentioning that are closed source. How do you regulate that? And then they sit behind an application. They sit behind to it.
Starting point is 00:29:01 Yeah. I think in order for you to be able to compile that model to generate that initial instantiation, you're still running it in a cluster of thousands of GPUs. But let's say we're past that. You can't be past that. We're not past that yet. We don't have 5 million models. We don't have all kinds of things that solve all kinds of problems.
Starting point is 00:29:21 We don't have an open source available simulation of every single molecule in the world, including all the toxic materials I could destroy humans. We don't have that yet. So before that is created and shrunk down to an iPhone, I think we need to put some stage gates up to slow people down. What do you mean by those stage gates? I think you need some form of KYC. I think before you're allowed to run on a massive cluster to generate the model that then you try to shrink, you need to be able to show people that you're not trying to do something absolutely chaotic or have it creating. That could be as simple as putting your driver's license and your social security number.
Starting point is 00:29:57 But just to, yeah, working on an instance in a cloud, right? It could be your, putting your name on your work. It becomes slightly more nuanced in that. It's like, I think that, Jake, that's probably the simplest thing for AWS, GCP, and Azure to do, which is that if you want to run over a certain number of GPU clusters, you need to put in that information.
Starting point is 00:30:16 I think you also need to put in your tax ID number. So I think if you want to run a real high-scale model, that's still going to run you tens or hundreds of millions of dollars. I do think there aren't that many people running those things, and I do think it's easy to police those and say, what are you trying to do here? Let me just push back on that, because Mosaic ML published this model that is, I can pull up the performance chart or Nick, maybe you can just find it on their website real quick
Starting point is 00:30:40 of the new model they published. Tommack, they trained this model on open source data that's publicly available, and they spent $200,000 on a cluster run to build this model, and look at how it performs compared to some of the top models that are closed source. Just say it for the people who are listening. Yeah, so for people that are listening, basically this model is called MPT7B.
Starting point is 00:31:03 That's the name of the AI model, the LLM model that was generated by this group called Mosaic ML. And they spent $200,000 creating this model from scratch. And the data that they trained it on is all listed here. It's all publicly available data that you can just download off the internet. Then they score how well it performs on its results against other big models out there like llama 7B
Starting point is 00:31:26 Yeah, but I know but I don't exactly know what the actual problems they're trying to ask it to compare right So the but the point is that this model theoretically could then be applied to a different data set once it's been you know Built and this is you know I just want to use your point earlier about toxic chemistry because models were generated and then other data was then used to fine-tune those models and deliver an output. Hold on a second. Those answers were to specific kinds of questions. If you wanted to all of a sudden ask, totally orthogonal thing of that model, that model would fail. You would have to go back and you'd have to retrain it. That training does cause some amount of money. So if you said to me, HMOP, I could build
Starting point is 00:32:09 you a model, trained on the universe of every single molecule in the world, and I could actually give you something that could generate the toxic list of all the molecules and how to make it for $200,000, I would be really scared. I don't think that that's possible today. So I don't understand these actual tests, but I don't think it's true that you could take this model and these model weights applied to a different set of data and get useful answers. But let's assume for a minute that you can, in fact, take $200,000 worth of GPU budget. But I don't want to assume it. Here's my point. I want to tell you what's happening right now, which is that's not possible, so we should
Starting point is 00:32:45 stop so that then I don't have to have this argument with you in a year from now, which is like, hey, some Jack jerk off just created this model. Now the cat's out of the bag, so let's not do it. And then what's going to happen is like some chaotic seeking organization is going to print one of these materials and release it into the wild to prove it. But here's the point for the audience. We are at a moment in time where this is moving very quickly and you have very intelligent people here who are very knowledgeable talking about the degree to which this is going to
Starting point is 00:33:13 manifest itself, not if it will manifest. You are absolutely 100% certain freeberg that somebody will do something very bad in terms of the chemical example as but one, if we're only determining here what level of hardware and what year that will happen, Chimata saying, we know it's going to happen, whether it's two or ten or five years, let's be thoughtful about it. And I think this discussion we're having here, I think is super relevant. And I just think that on a spectrum, this is a unique moment where the most knowledgeable people across every single political spectrum, persuasion, for-profit, nonprofit, Democrat Republican, right?
Starting point is 00:33:54 Elon and Sam will just use those as the two canonical examples to demonstrate. Our pro-regulation, and then the further and further you get away, the less technically astute you are, the more anti-regulation and like pro-market you are. And all I'm saying is, I think that should also be noted that that's a unique moment, that the only other time that that's happened was around nuclear weapons. And you know, that's when Bertine also went on. I don't think that's true. I actually think it's politically incorrect.
Starting point is 00:34:19 I think it's politically incorrect. It happened to be anti-regulation right now. I think because of what you're saying, just give me a say. I think because of what you're saying Everyone on the left and the right. It's it's become popular to be pro-regulation on AI and say that AI is going to Doom the world and it's unpopular and I'm saying you want it Sam No, I'm saying you want to explain my point of view on Sam you lawns different, but I think like It I think it's become politically incorrect to stand up and say you know what? This is a transformative technology for humanity.
Starting point is 00:34:47 I don't think that there's a real path to regulation. I think that there are laws that are in place that can protect us in other ways with respect to privacy, with respect to fraud, with respect to biological warfare, and all the other things that we should worry about. Ilan has said pretty clearly. He doesn't give a shit about what it does to make money or not. He cares about what he thinks. So all I'm saying is that's a guy that's not trying to be politically correct
Starting point is 00:35:07 elana is a very specific concern which is a g i he's concerned that we're on a path to a digital superintelligence singularity and if we create the wrong kind of artificial general intelligence that decides that it doesn't like humans that is a real risk to the human species. That's the concern he's expressed. But that's not what the hearing was really about,
Starting point is 00:35:31 and it's not what any of these regulatory proposals are about. The reality is, none of these centers know what to do about that. Even the industry doesn't know what to do about the long-term risk of creating an AGI. Nobody knows. Nobody knows. Nobody knows. And so I actually, I disagree with this idea that Tomat the earlier you said that there's
Starting point is 00:35:51 1,000 use cases here that could destroy the human species. I think there's only one. There's only one species level risk, which is AGI. But that's the long-term risk. We don't know what to do about it yet. I agree we should have conversations. What we're talking about today is whether we create some new licensure regime in Washington so that politically connected insiders get to control and shape the software industry.
Starting point is 00:36:15 And that's a disaster. Let me give you another detail on this. And one of the check groups I'm in, there was somebody who just got back from Washington. I want to say who they are. it's not someone who's famous outside the industry, but they're kind of like a tech leader and What they said is they just got back from Capital Hill and the White House and I guess there's like a White House summit on AI you guys know about that. Yeah, so What this person said is that the White House meeting was super depressing some smart people were there To be sure, but the White House and VPs teams were rapidly negative no real concern for the opportunity or economic impact
Starting point is 00:36:57 Just super negative of course basically the mentality was that Tech is bad. We hate social media. This is the hot new thing, we have to stop it. Of course. That basically is their attitude. They don't understand the technology. Talk about the White House. Yeah. The White House, yeah, and the VP specifically because she's now the AI is our.
Starting point is 00:37:13 To put Kamala Harris in charge of this makes no sense. I mean, does she have any background in this? Like it just shows like a complete utter lack of awareness. Where is the Megan Smith? Of course, somebody like a CTO to be put in charge of this? Remember Megan Smith was CTO under I guess Obama. Like you need somebody with a little more depth of experience here like hopefully you guys that saying your your pro regulation depending on who's in charge. Well I'm pro thoughtfulness. I'm pro thoughtfulness.
Starting point is 00:37:39 I'm illustrating that really this whole new agency that's being discussed is just based on vibes. You're not down with the vibes. The vibes, the vibes, the vibes, the vibes, the vibes, the vibes, the vibes, the vibes, the vibes, the vibes, the vibes, the vibes, the vibes, the vibes, the vibes, the vibes, the vibes, the vibes, the vibes, the vibes, the vibes, the vibes, the vibes, the vibes, the vibes, the vibes, the vibes, the vibes, the vibes, the vibes, the vibes, the vibes, the vibes, the vibes, the vibes, the vibes, the vibes, the vibes, the vibes, the vibes, the vibes, the vibes, the vibes, the vibes, the vibes, the vibes, the vibes, the vibes, the vibes, the vibes, the vibes, the vibes, the vibes, the vibes, the vibes, the vibes, the vibes, the vibes, the vibes, the vibes, the vibes, the vibes, the vibes, the vibes, the vibes, the vibes, the vibes, the vibes, the vibes, the vibes, the vibes, the vibes, the vibes, the vibes, the vibes, the vibes, the vibes, the vibes, the vibes, the vibes, the vibes, the vibes, the vibes, the vibes, the vibes, the vibes, the vibes, the vibes, the vibes, the vibes, the vibes, the vibes, the vibes, the vibes, the vibes, the vibes, the vibes, the vibes, the vibes, the vibes, the vibes, the vibes, the vibes, the vibes, the vibes, the vibes, the vibes, the vibes, the vibes, the vibes, the vibes, the vibes, the vibes, the vibes, the vibes, the vibes, the vibes, the vibes, the vibes, the vibes, the vibes, the vibes, the vibes, the vibes, the vibes, the vibes, the vibes, the vibes, the vibes, the vibes, the vibes, the vibes, the vibes, the vibes, the vibes, the vibes, the vibes, the vibes, They are scared to death. That jobs are going to collapse. They're socialists. They're union leaders. This is their worst nightmare because the actual truth of this technology is 30% more efficiency and it's very mundane. This is the truth here. I think that Representatives have 30% more efficiency means Google Facebook and many other companies finance education They do not add staff every year, they just get 30% more efficient every year, and then we see unemployment go way up, and Americans are going to have to take service jobs, and white collar jobs are going to be refined to like
Starting point is 00:38:34 a very elite few people who actually do work in the world. There is absolutely a lot of new companies. If humans can become, if knowledge workers can become 30% more productive, there'll be a lot of new companies. Absolutely. And the biggest shortage of our economy is coders. Right. And we're going to have an unlimited number of them now. They're all going to go to others. Yeah, I know that's unlimited, but yes, it's a good thing if you give them superpowers. We've talked about this before. Yeah, yeah. So I think it's too soon to be concluding that we need to stop job displacement. That hasn't even occurred yet. I'm not saying it's actually going to happen. I do agree. There'll be more startups. I'm not saying it's actually gonna happen. I do agree there'll be more startups.
Starting point is 00:39:05 I'm seeing it already. I just think that's what they fear. That's their fear is, and that's the fear of the EU. The EU is gonna be protectionist, unionist, protect pro workers, which is fine. The unions aren't gonna be affected because these are not blue collar jobs they're talking about.
Starting point is 00:39:19 These are not all of the poor. There's not collar unions that. All the media companies created unions. And look at them, they're all circulating. All these media companies are circling the drain and going business. But that's on the margins. I mean, that's not there's trying to start tech unions. Sure. They're trying to start them. But when we think of unionized workers, you're thinking about factory workers and these people are not affected.
Starting point is 00:39:36 Okay. Listen, this has been an incredible debate. This is why you tune into the pod. A lot of things can be true at the same time. I really think the analogy of the, the atom bomb is really interesting because what Elon has scared about with general artificial intelligence is nuclear holocaust. The whole planet blows up. Between those two things are things like Nagasaki and Hiroshima or a dirty bomb and many other possibilities with nuclear power, Fukushima, et cetera. So let's know Hiroshima's been no Hiroshima.
Starting point is 00:40:05 Not yet. Right. And you know, the question is, is a three mile island? Is a Fukushima? Is a Nagasaki? Are those things probable? And I think we are all looking at this saying, there will be something bad that will happen. There will be the equivalent. All right. Look, I'm just gonna check you. T strings together and these large language models string
Starting point is 00:40:24 together words in really interesting ways. And they give computers the ability to have a natural language interface. All right, look, you just did that. You just did that. You just did that. You just did that. You just did that. Look, you just did that. You just did that. Look, you just did that. You just did that. Look, you just did that. Look, you just did that. Look, you just did that.
Starting point is 00:40:32 Look, you just did that. Look, you just did that. Look, you just did that. Look, you just did that. Look, you just did that. Look, you just did that. Look, you just did that. Look, you just did that.
Starting point is 00:40:40 Look, you just did that. Look, you just did that. Look, you just did that. Look, you just did that. Look, you just did that. Look, you just did that. Look, you just did that. Look, you just did that. Look, you just did that. Look, you just did that. Look, you just did that. Look, you just did that. Look, you just did that. Look, you just did that. Look, you just did that. Look, you just did that. Look, you just did that. Look, you just did that. Look, you just did that. Look, you just did that. Look, you just did that. Look, you just did that. Look, you just did that. Look, you just did that. Look, you just did that. Look, you just did that. Look, you just did that. Look, you just did that these are models for string together language. Auto GPT where these things go out and pursue things without any interference. I would be the first one to say that if you wanted to scope models to be able to just do human language back and forth on the broad open internet, you know, there's probably a form
Starting point is 00:41:04 where these chat GPT products can exist. I don't, I think that those are quite benign. I agree with you. But I think what Jason is saying is that every week you're, you're taking a leap forward and already with auto GPT, you're talking about code that runs in the background without supervision. It's not a human interface that's like, hey, show me how to color my cookies green for St. Patty's Day. It's a slammer trip to Italy. Yeah, it's not doing that.
Starting point is 00:41:29 So I just think that there's a place well beyond what you're talking about. And I think you're minimizing the problem a little bit by just kind of saying the whole class of AI is just chat GPT and asking kid asking it to help it with its home. This example, I hate to say it out loud, but somebody could say, here is the history of financial crimes that were committed and other hacks. Please, with their own model on their own server, say, please come up with other ideas for hacks, be as creative as possible, and steal as much money as possible, and put that in an auto GPT, David, and study all hacks that occur in the history of hacking.
Starting point is 00:42:03 And it could just create supercast around the world and you can see is gonna regret buying into this narrative because the members of the jishra committee are doing the same playbook they ran back in two thousand sixteen after that election they ran all these hearings on disinformation claiming that social networks been used to hack the election it was all a phony narrative hold on that they got what happened that they got tech companies to buy and they the broschens who to write up stop it stop they got they got all these
Starting point is 00:42:28 tech CEOs to buy into that phony narrative why because it's a lot easier for the tech CEOs to agree and tell the centers what they want to hear to get them off their backs and then what do that lead to a whole censorship industrial complex. So we're going to do the same thing here we're going to buy into these phoning areas. We could go up the centers off our backs and that's going to create this giant AI industrial complex that's going to slow down real innovation and be a burden on entrepreneurs. Okay, lightning round lightning round. We got to move on. Three more topics I want to hit. Let's keep going. If I were to become an evil more evil. Yeah, what is it called an evil comic book character? A supervillain. A supervillain. If you wanted me an even more votes from supervillain, continue. I would take
Starting point is 00:43:12 every single virus patch that's been developed and publicized, learn on them, and then find the next zero day exploit on a whole bunch of stuff. I mean, you just like... Can we even publish that idea? Please don't... I mean, I'm worried about publishing that idea. That's not an intellectual leap. I mean, you have to be a dollar. No, no, no. Obviously. Okay, let's move on. Another great debate. Elon hired a CEO for Twitter, Linda Jacarino. I'm hoping pronouncing that correct was the head of AdSell's at NBC Universal. She's a legend in the advertising business. She worked a turn of her 15 years before that. She is a workaholic as what she says.
Starting point is 00:43:47 She's going to take over everything but product and CTO. Elon's going to stick with that. She seems to be very moderate and she follows people on the left or right. People are starting the character assassination and trying to figure out her politics. That she was involved with the W.A. World Economic Forum, which anybody in business basically does.
Starting point is 00:44:10 But you're taking sacks on this choice for CEO and what this means, just broadly for the next six months, because we're sitting here at six months, almost exactly since Elon took over. Obviously, you and I were involved in month one but not much after that What do you think the next six months holds and what do you think her role is gonna be obviously some precedent this for this with? You know when at space it Listen, I think this choice makes sense on this level Twitter's business mall is advertising
Starting point is 00:44:39 Elon does not like selling advertising. She's really good at selling advertising So he's chosen a CEO to work with whose highly complimentary to him in their skill sets and interests. And I think that makes sense. I think that there's a lot of logic in that. What Elon likes doing is the technology and product side of the business.
Starting point is 00:44:59 He actually doesn't really like the, let's call it the standard business chores. And especially related to, like we said, advertising and he loves to do that stuff. He loves to do that stuff. He loves to do that stuff. He loves to do that stuff. He loves to do that stuff. He loves to do that stuff.
Starting point is 00:45:16 He loves to do that stuff. He loves to do that stuff. He loves to do that stuff. He loves to do that stuff. He loves to do that stuff. He loves to do that stuff. He loves to do that stuff. He loves to do that stuff.
Starting point is 00:45:24 He loves to do that stuff. He loves to do that stuff. He loves to do that stuff. He loves to do that stuff. He loves to do that stuff. led to attacks on both the left and the right, the right pointed out her views on COVID and vaccines and her work with the WEF. And then on the left, I mean, the attack is that she's following Libs of TikTok, which you're just not allowed to do apparently. A follow is not an endorsement. Well, if you're just following Libs of TikTok, they want to say you're some crazy right-winger now.
Starting point is 00:45:41 Well, she also follows David Sachs. So that does mean that she's pretty, that is a signal. But the truth is, if you, Sachs correct me if I'm wrong here, or a trim off, maybe I'll send it to you. If you pick somebody that both sides dislike or are trying to take apart, you probably picked the right person, yeah. Here's what I think.
Starting point is 00:45:57 Okay, go ahead. We're not gonna know how good she is for six to nine months, but here's what I took a lot of joy out of. Here's a guy who gets attacked for all kinds of things now, right? He's an anti-Semite apparently. And then he had to be like, I'm very pro-Semite. He's a guy that all of a sudden people think
Starting point is 00:46:17 is a conspiracy theorist. He's a guy that people think is now on the raging right. All these things that are just like inaccuracies, basically fire bombs thrown by the left. But here's what I think is the most interesting thing for a guy that theoretically is supposed to be a troll and everything else, he has a female chairman at Tesla, a female CEO at Twitter,
Starting point is 00:46:40 and a female president at SpaceX. Of course, it's a great insight. It's the same insight. I think a lot of these virtual signaling lunatics on the lab, virtue signaling mids. They're all mids. And you know what, like, they're all mids.
Starting point is 00:46:53 They're all mids. They're all mids. And Bernie Sanders giving, you know, the CEO of a Starbucks a hot time, when he doubled the pay of the minimum wage gave them free book. I said, free book. You love mid, right?
Starting point is 00:47:08 That's a great term, isn't it? It's so funny. It's so funny. These fucking mids and pay for the college tuition. What gives you the right at Starbucks to pay for college tuition and double the minimum wage? That's so so so mid. I don't know why it's so funny to me.
Starting point is 00:47:23 Isn't it so great? It's so funny. It's't know why it's so funny to me. Isn't it so great? Like, you can just pick as you can picture them when I say that these are these mids Feverishly typing on their keyboards their virtue signaling nonsense. Sax wrapping it up Yeah, look like you said Elon has worked extremely well with Windshaw Oh, who's a president of SpaceX for a long time and I think that relationship shows The way to make it work here at Twitter, which is they have a very commoner skill set.
Starting point is 00:47:47 I think my understanding is that Gwen focuses on the business side and the sales side of the operation. Elon focuses on product and technology. She lets Elon be Elon. I think if Linda tries to reign Elon in, tell him not to tweet, or tries to metal in the free speech aspects of the business, which is the whole reason he bought Twitter, which I think will give him.
Starting point is 00:48:06 That is the beginning and end of it. Yeah, that's right. That's when it will fall apart. So my advice would be, let Ilambi Elon, you know, he bought this company to make it a free speech platform. Don't mess with that. And I think it could work great. And a free speech platform, it is when you are saying anything about COVID, and I really don't
Starting point is 00:48:25 even want to say it here because I don't want to even say the word COVID or vaccine means that this could be get tagged by YouTube and be D, you know, the algorithm could, could D, I don't know what they call it, deprecate this. And when we don't show up and people don't see us because we just said the word COVID. I mean, the censorship built into these algorithms is absurd. Speaking of absurd, Lena Khan, who has been the least effective FTC chair, I think started up pretty promising with some interesting ideas. She's now moved to block a major farm ideal.
Starting point is 00:48:58 In December, Amgen agreed to acquire Dublin-based, horizon for $27.8 billion. This is the largest foreign deal announced in 2022. FTC has filed a law student federal court seeking in Junction that would prevent the deal from closing. The reasoning is the deal would allow MGM to entrench the monopoly positions of horizons I and gout drugs. The agency said that those treatments don't face
Starting point is 00:49:21 any competition today and that MGM would have a strong incentive to prevent any potential survivors from introducing similar drugs. Chimoff, the pharmaceutical industry is a little bit different than the tech industry insanity. Explain why and then Saks will go to you on the gout stuff because I know that personally impacts you. Go ahead, Chimoff. I think that this is a little like scientifically illiterate to be honest. unpack the thing is that you want drugs that can get to market quickly, but at the same time you want drugs to be safe and you want drugs to be effective.
Starting point is 00:49:54 And I think that the FDA has a pretty reasonable process. And one of the direct byproducts of that process is that if you have a large indication that you're going after, say diabetes, you have to do an enormous amount of work. It has to be run on effectively thousands of people. You have to stratify it by age, you have to stratify it by gender, you have to stratify it by race, you have to do it across different geographies, right? The bar is high, but the reason the bar is high is that if you do get approval, all of a sudden become these blockbuster 10, 20, 30 billion dollar drugs. And they improve people's lives and they allow people to live, etc. etc. What has happened in the last 10 or 15 years because of Wall Street's influence inside of the pharma companies is that what pharma has done a very good job of doing is actually pushing off a
Starting point is 00:50:48 lot of this very risky R&D to young early stage biotech companies. And they typically do the first part of the work. They get through a phase one. They even may build the sometimes ghost and start a phase two trial, two A trial. And then they typically can get sold to pharma. And these are like multi billion dollar transactions. And the reason is that the private markets just don't have the money to support the risk for these companies to be able to do all the way through a phase three clinical trial, because it would cost on some cases five, six, 6, 7, 8 billion. You've never heard of a tech company raising that much money, except in a few rare cases. In biotech, it just
Starting point is 00:51:31 doesn't happen. So you need the M&A machine to be able to incentivize these young companies to even get started in the first place. Otherwise, what literally happens is you have a whole host of diseases that just stagnate. And instead, what happens is a younger company can only raise money to go after smaller diseases, which have smaller populations, smaller revenue potential, smaller costs because the trial infrastructure is just less. So if you don't want industry to be in this negative loop where you only work on the small diseases and you actually go and tackle the big ones, you need to allow these kinds of transactions happen.
Starting point is 00:52:10 The last thing I'll say is that even when these big transactions happen, half the time they turn out to still not work. There is still huge risk. So don't get caught up in the dollar size. You have to understand the phase that's in. And the best example of this is the biggest outcome in, in biotech, private investing in Silicon Valley was this thing called stem centrics.
Starting point is 00:52:30 And that thing was a $10 billion dollar dud, right? But it allowed all these other companies to get started after stem centrics got bought for 10 billion free. Burke, I want to get your take on this, especially in light of maybe something people don't understand, which is that the amount of time you get to actually exclusively monetize a drug because my understanding, you correct me if I'm wrong, you get a 20-year patent, it's from the date you file it, but then you're working towards getting this drug approved by the FDA.
Starting point is 00:52:58 So by the time the FDA approves a drug, this 20-year patent window, how many years do you actually have exclusively to monetize that drug? And then your wider thoughts on this FTA. Yeah, I'm not going to answer that question right now because I do want to kind of push back on the point. Okay. I'm generally pretty negative on a lot of the comments, Lena Conte made and her positioning and obviously as you guys know, we've talked about it on the show.
Starting point is 00:53:20 But I read the FTC filing, it's in federal court. And if you read the filing, let me just start. The company that Amgenz tried to buy is called Horizon Therapeutics, which is a company that's doing about $4 billion in revenue a year, about $1 billion to $1 billion and a half in EBITDA. So it's a business that's got a portfolio of orphan drugs, meaning drugs that treat orphan conditions that aren't very big blockbusters in the pharmaceutical drug context. And so it's a nice portfolio of cash generating drugs. Amgen, buying the business, gives them real revenue, real EBITDA, and helps bolster a portfolio that is aging. And I think that's a big part of
Starting point is 00:54:01 the strategic driver for Amgen to make this massive $28 billion acquisition. The FTC's claim in the filing, which I actually read, and I was like, this is actually a pretty good claim, is that the way that AMGEN sets the prices for their pharmaceutical drugs is they go to the insurance companies, the payers, and the health systems, and they negotiate drug pricing. And they often do both multi-product deals. So they'll say, hey, we'll give you access to this product at this price point, but we need you to pay this price point for this product. And over time, that drives price inflation.
Starting point is 00:54:36 It drives costs up and it also makes it difficult for new competitors to emerge. Because they tell the insurance company, you have to pick our drug over other drugs in order to get this discounted price. And so it's a big part of their negotiating strategy that they do the insurance company, you have to pick our drug over other drugs in order to get this discounted price. So it's a big part of their negotiating strategy that they do with insurance companies. So the FTC's claim is that by giving AMG this large portfolio of drugs that they're buying from Horizon, it's going to give them more negotiating leverage and the ability to do more
Starting point is 00:54:59 of this drug blocking that they do with insurance companies and other payers in the drug system. So they're trying to prevent pharmaceutical drug price inflation and they're trying to increase competition in their lawsuit. So I felt like it was a fairly kind of compelling case. I'm the lawyer on anti-trust and monolithic practices in the Sherman Act, but this was not, sorry, let me just say this was not an early stage biotech risky deal that they're trying to block. No, but I'm sure company with $4 billion a revenue
Starting point is 00:55:26 and a billion and a half an ebit. I understand, I read it too, but two comments. It is because the people that traffic in these stocks are the same ones that fund these early stage biotech companies. And I talk to a bunch of them and they're like, if these guys block this kind of deal, we're gonna get out of this game entirely.
Starting point is 00:55:43 So just from the horse's mouth, what I'm telling you, is you're gonna see a poll come over the early stage venture financing landscape because a lot of these guys that are crossover investors that own a lot of these public biotech stocks that also fund the private stocks will change their risk posture if they can't make money. That's just the nature of capitalism. The second thing is Lena Khan did something really good about what you're talking about this week actually
Starting point is 00:56:05 Which is she actually went after the PBMs and if you really care about drug inflation and you follow the dollars The real culprits around this are the pharmacy benefit managers and she actually launched a big investigation into them But this is what speaks to the two different approaches. It seems that unfortunately for the FTC Every merger just gets contested for the sake of it being contested. Because I think that if you wanted to actually stop price inflation, there are totally different mechanisms because why didn't you just sue all the PBMs? While there's no merger to be done, but you can investigate and then you could regulate. And I think that that's probably a more effective way. And the fact that she targeted the PBM says
Starting point is 00:56:45 that somebody in there actually understands where the price inflation is coming from. But I don't think something like an AMGEN horizon, because what I think will happen is all the folks will then just basically say, well, man, if these kinds of things can't get bought, then why am I funding these other younger things? Yeah, but you know, we're just not seeing a lot
Starting point is 00:57:04 of the younger stuff get get get blocked. I don't think we've seen any attempts at blocking speculative portfolio acquisitions or speculative company acquisitions. So I think these guys are getting cut up in the dollar number. You know, yeah. So I think the problem is they see 28 billion. They're like, we need to stop it. You know, it's amazing.
Starting point is 00:57:22 I will just wrap on this because it's a good discussion. But I think we got to keep moving here is I took the PDF that you shared and I put it into chat GPT now. Oh, and you don't need to upload the PDF anymore. You could just say summarize this and put the link and it did it instantly. It's awesome. Are you using the browsing plugin or? I just use chat GP. No, it's not the browser plugin. I just did this is the game of three point model. I just gave it a link and it pulled the link in the GPT 3.5 model. Does that really could do that?
Starting point is 00:57:52 That's new. They must have had a browsing in the background. Yeah, we're just pulling a file. By the way, whoa. Did it that day? They did it today, yeah. Well, remember last week we said that they had to build browsing into the actual product like Bard, right? Otherwise it can move. Yeah, I got to say, yeah, close day. I close day
Starting point is 00:58:09 eyes on the top of their game. The app is available in the app. So now, right? As if today, no, they they had a test app. I was on the test flight. No, no, no, they just launched the app today. They did. Oh, that's game over, man. If this thing is an app form, that's going to 10x the number of users. And it's going to 10x the amount of usage. By the way, I texted the same thing for Bard, we should compare the two, but Bard, Bard who is pretty good as well. Yeah. Yeah. Wow.
Starting point is 00:58:31 Brayton, you ask Bard to actually compare it's summary with chat GPT summary. So tell us which one's better. All right. This is some interesting news here. You know, we speaking of platform shifts. Do I get to give my view on the Lena Com thing? Oh. Well, yeah. But first start with, I didn't want to,
Starting point is 00:58:48 this was getting a little, well, it was getting a little personal here, David. And I didn't, I didn't want to trigger you. I know you've been struggling with the gout because of your lifestyle choices, the alcohol, the fwagra, everything. But no, you've lost a lot of way to give you a lot of credit. Tell us, what do you think about the bundling we're seeing here?
Starting point is 00:59:04 Because it does seem Microsoft has with the operating system. Yeah, it's very similar. but, no, you've lost a lot of weight, I give you a lot of credit. Tell us, what do you think about the bundling we're seeing here? Does it seem Microsoft asked with the operating system? Yeah, it's very similar. And what I said in the context of tech is that we should focus on the anti-competitive tactics and stop those rather than blocking all mergers. And I think the same thing is happening now in the pharmaceutical space.
Starting point is 00:59:17 If bundling is the problem, focus on bundling, the problem when you just block M&A is that you deny early investors the one of the biggest ways that they can make a positive outcome. And what's the downstream effect of that? Yeah, exactly. Look, it is hard enough to make money as either a farmer investor or as a VC
Starting point is 00:59:37 that there's only two good outcomes, right? There's IPOs, there's M&A. Everything else goes bankrupt. Everything else goes, is a zero, it goes bankrupt. So if you take M&A off the table, you really suppress the already challenge returns of venture capital. Well said, Will said. You mentioned earlier that we were willing to give Lena a chance. We thought that some of our ideas were really interesting because I think there are these huge tech companies that do need to be regulated, these big
Starting point is 01:00:05 tech monopolies. Basically, you have the mobile operating system do happily with Apple and Google. You've got Amazon, you've got Microsoft. There is a huge risk of those companies preferring their own applications over downstream applications or using these bundling tactics. If you don't put some limits around that, that creates, I think, an unhealthy tech ecosystem. This is the insight, and I think it's exactly correct, Zach's. For Lena Conn, I know she listens to the pod, Helena, you want to go after tactics, not acquisitions. So if somebody buys something and they lower prices and increases consumer choice, that's great. If it encourages more people to invest more money
Starting point is 01:00:46 into innovation, that's great. But if the tactics are, we're going to bundle these drugs together to keep some number of them artificially high or reduced choice. Where if we're going to bundle features into the suite of products and we do anti-competitive stuff, you have to look at the tactics on the field. Are people cheating. And are they using the monopoly power to force you to use their app store? Just make Apple have a second app store. That's all we're asking you to do. There should be an app store on iOS that doesn't charge any fees or charges 1% fees. Break the monopoly on the app store. Sax is so right. Perfectly said, she actually
Starting point is 01:01:24 did issue compulsory orders to the PBMs. So to your point, Sacks, the FTC has been worried that what Freeberg said is been happening. But the real sort of middlemen manipulator in this market are the pharmacy benefit managers. And so this week, she actually issued compulsory orders to the PBMs and said, turn over all your business records to me. I'm going to look into them.
Starting point is 01:01:45 That makes a ton of sense. But then on the same hand, it's like you see merger and you're like, no, it can't happen. It just doesn't speak to a knowledge of the market. We should have Lena on. We'll be, I know you listened to the pod. I've heard the back channel just come on the pod. She would be a good guest, right? We would have a good conversation.
Starting point is 01:02:00 Totally. I think, yeah. I mean, the con open invite, Nikki Haley's coming on the pod. By the way, you have homework to do for the summit, which is to see if you can get Donald Trump to come on to the summit Okay, huge love j-cal love all in great Good job, okay, not as good as the practice book class, okay great As you your mannerisms are unbelievable. How did you practice it? did. I did a little bit only because I like to troll people and trigger them.
Starting point is 01:02:27 I'm going to really dial in my Trump in the coming weeks. All right. Here we go. Apple's long anticipated AR headset. That stands for augmented reality, which means VR. You can't see the real world. You're just in a virtual world AR, but you put digital assets on the real world. So you can see what's happening in the real world,
Starting point is 01:02:46 but you can put graphics all around. That's expected to be revealed as early as June. The projected cost is gonna be around $3,000. It wouldn't ship into the fall. This is a break from Apple's typical way of releasing products which is to wait till it's perfect and to wait until all consumers can afford it. This is a different approach. They're going to give this out to developers early.
Starting point is 01:03:08 And Tim Cook is supposedly pushing this. There was another group of people inside of Apple who did not want to release a Chimoff. But there is some sort of external battery pack. It seems like a bit of a Franken product, Frankencyke kind of project here. That, you know, perhaps Steve Jobs wouldn't have wanted to release, but he needs to get it out, I think because Oculus is making so much progress to Killer App. Supposedly is a FaceTime-like live chat experience, that seems interesting, but they look like ski goggles. You're other words, Chimoff, on this, as the next compute platform platform if they can get it to work. Would you wear these?
Starting point is 01:03:47 Would they have to be prada? What's the story here? No, no. Does this seem like a weird conversation? Because none of us fucking know. None of us have seen this product and none of us have used it. So, like, this is just, this is just, we are lucky.
Starting point is 01:03:56 Friend of the pot, Pommel Lucky says it's incredible. So what? That's just like commenting on one guy's five letter, five word tweet. Oh, that's just, let's, Palmer knows. I mean Palmer invented Oculus. Great.
Starting point is 01:04:06 But what are we talking about? We have nothing to say to that. Well, no, I'll, I'll, I'll, I'll, I'll form a really good question here. Do you believe this is going to be a meaningful compute platform in the coming years because Apple is so good at product? How do we know until we see it? We got to see it.
Starting point is 01:04:19 I think it's Facebook. Of course, they're, of course, they're good at product. Let's, let's see the product though. Like, all right, fine. Sax, what are your thoughts? I think it's a good thing that they're launching this.. Let's see the product though. Like, all right, fine. Sax, what do you're that's? I think it's a good thing that they're launching this. Like you said, it is a deviation for what they've normally done. They normally don't release a product
Starting point is 01:04:32 unless they believe the entire world can use it. So their approach has been only to release mass, mass, market products, and I have a very small portfolio of those products. But when those products work, they're, you know, billion user home runs. This obviously can't be at a $3,000 price point. And it also seems like it's a little bit of an early prototype where the batteries are like in a fanny pack around your waist. And there's a ways to go around
Starting point is 01:04:56 on this. But I give them credit for launching what is probably going to be more of an early prototype. So they could start iterating on it. I mean, the reality is the Apple Watch, the first version kind of sucked. And first five versions. Yeah, now they're on one that's pretty good, I think. So look, I think this is a cool new platform. They get knocked on for not innovating enough.
Starting point is 01:05:15 I think, good, let them try something new. I think this will be good for meta to have some competition. Yeah, it's great. Having two major players in the race, maybe it actually speeds up the innovation. I mean, we's great. Having two major players in the race, maybe it actually speeds up the innovation. Maybe we get some work. Jamont, are you not here? I mean, I think they should have done something in cars.
Starting point is 01:05:33 What would they do in cars? If you were going to talk about the car, what would it be? Tell me what you think would be the right approach. You were going to do the Facebook phone. That could have changed the entire destiny of Facebook. They should have bought Tesla when they could have had the chance for four or five billion dollars. They could have bought it for 10 billion, 20 billion. It's only when it got to 5060 that it got out of reach. What do you think the car should have?
Starting point is 01:05:54 No, they could have bought it at a hundred billion. They could have bought a hundred billion. Tim Cook famously wouldn't take the meeting. Elon said it. He wouldn't, he wouldn't meet with Zarr. Zarr. Maybe they missed an opportunity there, but I do think the end game with the AR headset or glasses, right? Yes. Or you get the screens and you get the Terminator mode. And is that, what is that?
Starting point is 01:06:13 These are just glasses that my mirror glasses. They were like fancy technologies. No, but this size glasses is what you're talking about. Yeah, and you can have like a little camera built in and some conjunction with AI. Then I guess really interesting. So that's the end game here, I think. Give the audience an example of what this combination of AI plus AR could do. When you're walking around, it could layer on intelligence about the world. You meet with somebody and it can remind you of their name and the last time you met with them and
Starting point is 01:06:38 give you a summary of what you talked about. What action items there are. You could be walking in the city and it could tell you it knows you like peaking dock. It could show you, hey, there's a peaking dock place over here. Some reviews have it. It just knows you and it's customized in the world. What about for people that do the same routine 99% of the time? How does it gonna help you that?
Starting point is 01:06:57 It could tell you your steps every day. It could tell you incoming messages. So you don't have to take your phone out. You're gonna spend $3,000 on that. No, but you would spend people spend $1200 to get your notifications on your wrist. Why do you want it on your eyes for $3,000? I would love this. Maybe I just do a lot of meetings or events where people are coming up to me and I've met
Starting point is 01:07:17 them once a year before. It would be really helpful to have the term relevant. Well, let's be honest though, the terminated mode for you to be able to be present with your family and friends, but be playing chess with Peter Tiel on those glasses. That's your dream come true. You and Peter in AR playing chess all day long. Throw up the picture of SACs beating Peter Tiel.
Starting point is 01:07:39 I watched the clip from the early all-in episodes when we discussed you beating Peter Tiel in what a great moment it was for you. All right, listen, let's wrap up with this gallop survey. The number of Americans who say it's a good time to buy a house has never been lower. 21% say it's a good time to buy a house down 9% from the prior low of a year ago, prior to 2022, 50% of more consistently thought it was a good time to buy, significantly fewer expect local housing prices to increase in the year. go prior to 2022, 50% of more consistently, though it was a good time to buy, significantly, significantly fewer expect local housing prices to increase in the year.
Starting point is 01:08:09 Hey, SACS, is this like a predictive of a bottom and pure capitulation, and then that means maybe it is in fact a good time. How would you read this data? I don't see it as a bottom necessarily. The way I read the data is that the spike in interest rates have made it very unaffordable to buy a house right now. You've got, you know, the mortgages are what, like, 7% interest rate is even slightly higher. So, people just can't afford the same level of house that they did before. I mean, mortgages were at 3, 3, and a half percent, like four and a half ago. Now, I think what's kind of interesting
Starting point is 01:08:42 is that even in the 1980s, the early 1980s, when interest rates were at like 15%, you still had 50% thought it was an okay time to buy a house or a tract of time to buy a house. So, for the number to be this low, tells me that is not just about interest rates, I think consumer confidence is also plummeting, and people are feeling more insecure. So, I think it confidence is also plummeting and people are feeling more insecure. So I think it's another economic indicator that things are looking really shaky right now. And I'll tell you, one of the knock on effects of this is going to be that people can't move because in order to move, you have to sell your current house and then buy a new
Starting point is 01:09:22 one. And you're not going to want to sell your current house when prices are going down. And then for the new one, you're going to lose your 3% mortgage enough to get a new one at 7%. So you're not going to buy anything like the house. Freezes the market. Freezes the market. It freezes mobility.
Starting point is 01:09:37 I think over the last few years during COVID, you saw tremendous movement between states. I think that's going to slow down a lot now, because people just can't afford to trade houses. So as a result of that, I think discontent is going to rise because I think one of the ways that you create a pressure valve is when people aren't happy in a state, they just move somewhere else. Well, now they're not going to do that. Well, you can also move to a better opportunity for you
Starting point is 01:09:59 and your family, whether that school's tax is a job, lifestyle. So yeah, you're going gonna reduce joy in the country. And it also, it screws with price discovery, doesn't it, Jamal? If you don't have a fluid market here, then how does anybody know what their house is worth? And this just, again, creates more, I think,
Starting point is 01:10:17 a frost. I think Friedberg has said this a couple times, Friedberg, you can correct me if I'm wrong, but like the home is like the disproportionate majority of most Americans wealth, right? It's all their wealth. All their wealth, yeah. So, I mean, there's that factoid.
Starting point is 01:10:37 And then what does that do for other paying attention? Savings or whatever. Yeah, it's okay. And you got, in coming, what's going on? They're bringing you lunch? No, I was looking at, say the entrance to be on? I mentioned that's for sale. It's like $175 million, but they just got the price to $140. So I'm just taking a little again. I mean, there's going to be a lot of distress in the market soon. I'm predicting a lot of distress.
Starting point is 01:11:00 Actually, can we shift to the commercial side for a second? I just passed away. Yeah. Sam's outp has to wait. Sam's Elp has to wait. Oh, wow. Rest in peace. Rest in peace. Chicago, crazy. But speaking of the bombastic, interesting guy.
Starting point is 01:11:14 Yeah, but speaking of the real estate market, so I want to give an update on San Francisco CRE. I was talking to a broker the other day. And so here are the stats that they gave me. so it was a local broker than someone from black stone and their fans of the pot and just came up to me we start talking about what's happening in some of the scope. Shout out shout out to them didn't take a didn't take a photo but. But they're fans of the pot was so we start talking about what's happening in service go real estate. service scope, real estate. So the SF office market is just a level set, is 90 million square feet. They said the vacancy rate is now 35%.
Starting point is 01:11:48 So that's over 30 million square feet vacant. And vacancy is still growing as Lisa's end and company shed space because some of that space that they're not using is not for sub-lease. Everyone says, what about AI? Is AI going to be the savior? The problem is that AI companies are only, that's only about a million square feet of demand. So one million out of 30 million is going to be absorbed by AI.
Starting point is 01:12:12 And maybe that number grows over time over the next five, 10 years as we create some really big AI companies, but it's just not going to bail out some of this go right now. The other thing is that VC's back start-ups are very demanding in terms of their tenant improvements and landlords don't really have the cap or I now to put that into the buildings. And startups just are not the kind of credit worthy tenants that landlords really want. So this is not going to bail anybody out. They said there are a ton of zombie office towers, especially in Soma, and all these office towers are eventually going to be owned by the banks, which are going to have to liquidate them.
Starting point is 01:12:47 And then we're going to find out that these loans that they made are going to have to be written off, because the collateral that they thought was blue chip, that was backing up those loans, is not so blue chip anymore. So I think we've got not just a huge commercial real estate problem, but it's going to be a big banking problem, As basically people stop pretending, right now they're trying to restructure loans, it's called pretending to extend. You reduce the rate on the loan, but add term to it. But that only works for so long. If this keeps going, if the market keeps looking like this, I think you were going to have a real problem. And that will be a problem in the banking system.
Starting point is 01:13:22 Now, services go as the worst of the worst, but they said that New York is similar and all these other big cities with empty office towers are directionally. I'm in New York right now for this side connections conference and it is packed. The city is packed getting anywhere. There's gridlock. You can't walk down the street. You got to walk around people every restaurant. It is dynamic And then I talked to people about offices and they said people are staying in their houses and they're tiny little New York apartments instead of going three train stops to their office They go to the office one or two days a week unless you're like JP Morgan or some other places that's that drop the boom But there's a lot of people still working from home the finance people have all gone back media people are starting to go back so there are three to five days here.
Starting point is 01:14:07 And the city is booming contrast that is spent the last two weeks in San Francisco walking from Soma to the Embarcadero back. Dead nobody in the city. It like literally a ghost town it's a real shame it's a real real, real shame. And I wonder if these, this is the question I have for you, Saks, can they cut a deal? Can they go to like months to month, rent, sublets, Lucy, Goosey, just give people any dollar amount to convince them to come back? Is there any dollar amount?
Starting point is 01:14:39 Cause I'm looking for a space for the incubator in San Mateo, I've been getting a ton of inbound. But the prices are still really high. And I'm like, how do I cut a deal here? Because shouldn't people be lowering the prices dramatically or are they all just pretending or will I get a lower risk? Ritz are definitely coming down big time, especially for space that sort of commodity and not that desirable.
Starting point is 01:15:00 But what's happening is, according to the people I talk to, is that the demand, the people who are actually looking for new space, they only want to be in the best areas, and they want to be in the newest buildings that have the best amenities. And so that sort of commodity office tower, where there's barely anybody over there, like no one wants that. So I think people would rather pay a higher rent. I mean, the rent will still be much lower, probably half the price of what it used to be, but they'd rather pay a little bit more for that than get like a zombie office tower.
Starting point is 01:15:29 We can't talk about all this without talking about two cases, tragically a shop lifter, a criminal who was stealing from a drug store in San Francisco. I got shot and the video was released. I'm sure you've seen it, Sachs, and then here in New York, everybody's talking about this one instance of a Marine, trying to subdue a violent, homeless person with two other people, and it's on everybody's minds here, and Brooke Jenkins is not prosecuting in San Francisco. The shooter, they look like, you know, a clean shoot as they
Starting point is 01:16:06 would say in the police business, an appropriate and it's tragic to say it is, but the person did charge the security guard, the security guard did fear for their life and shot him. So Brook Jenkins is not going to pursue anything, but in New York City, they're pursuing manslaughter for the person who did see him a bit excessive from the video. It's hard to tell what the reality is in these situations. And he thoughts on it, David, these two cases and two cities tell the two cities. Yeah, look, I mean, the only time you can get a Soros DA excited about prosecuting someone is when they act in self-defense or defensive others.
Starting point is 01:16:38 I mean, this Marine, I guess Daniel Penny is his name. He was acting in defensive others. The person who he stopped was someone with an extensive criminal record who had just recently engaged in a attempted kidnapping who had punched elderly people, had a dozen of arrests. In fact, people on Reddit were talking about how dangerous this person was.
Starting point is 01:17:05 Apparently, a dozen years ago or so, he was seen as more of like a quirky, like Michael Jackson impersonator. Street performer. Street performer. But something happened, this is a coin to a Reddit post that I saw where something happened and there's some sort of psychological break. And then since then, he's had dozens and dozens of primes, and they just keep letting him loose through this revolving door of a justice system we have.
Starting point is 01:17:32 And now look, no one likes to see him basically dying. And yes, it's too bad. It's horrible that that happened. Patrick, I don't know though that if you're trying to stop someone, I don't know how easy it is to precisely control whether it used too much force or not. So I think Daniel Penny has a strong case that he was acting in self-defense and defensive others.
Starting point is 01:17:56 And there were two other people by the way who were holding this person down. There are three of them restraining him. And what universally New Yorker said to me of all different backgrounds was this is not a race issue. The other, I think one or two of the other people were people of color, it was not a race issue and they're trying to make it into a race issue in both these cases. And this is literally what happens.
Starting point is 01:18:15 It just having been through this in New York in the 70s and 80s. When you do not, who's they? Who's they when you say trying to make a race issue? There are a bunch of protests on the street, both in San Francisco and New York people protesting these as you know justice issues. The fact is if you do not If you allow lawlessness for too long a period of time you get a Bernie gets situation and Bernie gets people can look it up in the 80s
Starting point is 01:18:41 I was a kid when it happened But they tried to mug somebody somebody. He had a gun. He shot him. And like, this is what happens if you allow lawlessness for extended periods of time, it's just you're basically gambling. And what happened to Bernie gets? He got the case. He got not guilty, but I think he had an illegal gun. So he was guilty of that. The Bernie gets thing was really crazy because at the time the climate in New York and this 1984 shooting, there was a portion of people who, I don't want to say they made them a hero, but they made it a sea. This is what happens if you allow us to be assaulted forever. We're going to fight back at some point.
Starting point is 01:19:22 That was the vibe in New York when I was a child. That was 14, 15 years old when this happened. He was charged with attempted murder assault. Jason, what was the name of that vigilante group that used to walk the streets? The something angels? That was the guardian angels. So it was so bad in the 80s and I actually almost signed up for the guardian angels. I went to their headquarters because I was practicing martial arts and I thought I would check it out. And they had their office in House Kitchen. I didn't wind up joining. But what they would do is they would just ride the subway that would wear a certain type of hat and wear a garden angel shirt. And all they did was just ride the subway, a red beret, and they
Starting point is 01:19:56 would just ride the subway. And you felt like a martial arts. Were you taking take one doe? I was in take one doe. Yeah. This is before a mixed martial arts, but they just rode the subways and honestly I've been on the subways with them many times. You felt safe. And it wasn't vigilantes. They were gardening angels. They used that term. And many times they would do exactly what this marine did, which is try to subdue somebody who was committing crime. I was, I had two distinct instances where people tried to mug me, you know, writing the subways in New York in the 80s. Two distinct times. And one was a group of people and one was one person. Like, it was pretty scary.
Starting point is 01:20:33 Both times I navigated it, but it was, yeah, not pleasant in the 80s in New York. Can I say one more thing about this, Daniel Penny, Jordan Nealey case, so look, at the end of the day, this is going to be litigated. I don't know all the details. They're going to have to litigate whether Daniel Penny's Jordan Neely case. So look, at the end of the day, this is going to be litigated. I don't know all the details. They're going to have to litigate whether Daniel Penny's use of force was excessive or not. But here's the thing is that the media has been falsely representing Jordan Neely by only
Starting point is 01:20:56 posting 10-year-old photos of him and leaving out crucial information. This was a press report. So again, this is why I mentioned the whole Michael Jackson impersonator thing, is that the media keeps portraying Nelius as innocent, harmless guy who is this delightful Michael Jackson impersonator. In truth, he hasn't done that in more than a decade because again, he had some sort of mental break. And since then, he's been arresting over 40 times, including for attempting to kidnap a seven-year-old child. for attempting to kidnap a seven year old child.
Starting point is 01:21:28 And so the media is not portraying this case, I think in an accurate way. And I think as a result of that, it leads to pressure on the DA to prosecute someone who has I think a strong self-defense plane. Or maybe the DA just wants to do this anyway, and it gives the DA cover to do this. What is Soros', I mean, I know that we had this back and forth with this. But why is CNN being inaccurate, do you think sex?
Starting point is 01:21:49 They're basically cooperating with Alvin Bragg's interpretation of the case. They're trying to make the case against Penny, he look as damning as possible. Yeah, why don't they just take it straight down the middle? It's a tragedy. We have a screwed up situation here. We got a mental health crisis, and it's a tragedy for everybody involved on the Bernie Getz stuff. He served eight of a 12 month sentence for the firearm charge and he had a massive $43 million civil judgment against him
Starting point is 01:22:14 in 1996 Decade later. It's just this is a little different than the the get's thing because pulling out a gun and shooting somebody Well, yeah, that's deadly intent. Yeah, that's a huge installation. There was Penny, he's a train Marine, right? He's trying to mobilize him. He has to believe that he's just trying to subdue, nearly.
Starting point is 01:22:34 And so, using a chokehold to kill him, that's an unfortunate consequence of what happened, but he was trying to restrain the guy. As far as we know, right? As far as we know. Yeah, I mean, tragedies all around. We got to restrain the guy. As far as we know, right? As far as we know. Yeah, I mean, tragedies all around. We gotta have law and order. I tweeted, I don't know why we still have the post office.
Starting point is 01:22:51 Maybe we can make that like once a week and redo all of that space and allow every American who's suffering from mental illness to check in to what used to be the post office. You know, maybe like once a week and obviously you can give those people very gentle landings. I don't think we need postal servers more than once like once a week, and obviously you can give those people very gentle landings. I don't think we need postal service more than once or twice a week. And then
Starting point is 01:23:08 let's reallocate some money towards mental health in this country where anybody who's sick who feels like they're violent or feels like they're suicidal can just go into a publicly provided facility and say, I'm a sick person, please help me. This would solve a lot of problems in society. We've got a mental health crisis. We should provide mental health services to all Americans. And it's an obviously easy thing for us to afford to do. And if we had done that, then this never would have happened.
Starting point is 01:23:35 Exactly. I mean, literally you have SACs who wants to balance the budget saying, hey, this is something we're spending on. We can all agree on this. Compared to the impact on society, I don't think it would be a huge expense. We would save money. We'd save money because a city like San Francisco
Starting point is 01:23:49 could become quite livable or New York. And then you've got for bed these terrible school shootings. You know, if you avoid even one of them, it's 30 people's lives or 10 people's lives. So it's a very good way to convert post offices. What we need to do is stand up scaled shelters and it doesn't need to be done on the most expensive land in a given city. To an outside of cities.
Starting point is 01:24:07 Yeah. Why is it? There is no expectation in Europe for like Paris or London to be affordable or Hong Kong to be affordable. There are affordable places, 30 minutes outside of those places where you could put these facilities. I just want to ask one question to SACs, because I don't know, and I know SACs is a little bit deeper into this tonight.
Starting point is 01:24:26 What is George Soros' motivation for putting in these lawless insane DAs? Like, I understand that he was able to buy them, their low cost, there's not a lot of money in them. Okay, I understand that, that's table stakes. But what is his actual motivation for causing chaos in cities? Listen, we can't know exactly what his motivation is but what he did is he went
Starting point is 01:24:47 into cities where he doesn't live and flooded the zone with money to get his preferred candidate electors d a now the reason he did that was to change the law and the way that he changed law was not through legislatures the way you're supposed to operate but rather by abusing prosecutorial discretion so in other words once he he gets his Soros DA elected, they can change the law by deciding what to prosecute and what not to prosecute.
Starting point is 01:25:10 And that's why there is so much lawlessness in these cities. But there's a better path you're saying. Yeah, better path. This is not the only way that Soros has, I'd say, imposed his values on cities that he doesn't even live in. Where does he live? I think he's a New York guy, but I'm not sure.
Starting point is 01:25:27 But he's gone far beyond that, obviously, in these elections. But also, he's done this across the world. Sora's has this thing called the Open Society Foundation, which sounds like it's spreading democracy and liberal values, but in fact, is fermenting regime change all over the world. And he's been sponsoring and funding color regime change all over the world. And he's been sponsoring and funding color revolutions all over the world. Now, if you like some of the values he's spreading,
Starting point is 01:25:50 then maybe you think that's a good thing. But I can tell you that the way this is perceived by all these countries all over the world is it creates tremendous dissension and conflict. And then they look at America and they basically say, know this American billionaires coming into our country and he's funding regime change and it makes America look bad now he's doing this I think with the cooperation of our state department a lot of cases and maybe see I don't know but This is why America frankly is hated all over the world is we go running around meddling in the
Starting point is 01:26:24 Yeah, the internal affairs of all these countries, assist guy walled there like i that was the other thing i heard is that is not all there and the people around him are doing these kind of things in his organizations i heard something similar is that it's the idiot son Alexander who's really now pulling the string so i'm the first would you would you allow soros to speak at all in summit would you be sure yeah let's have soros a son and they could explain themselves if they're so proud Well, apparently there is an article that Alexander Soros has visited the White House like two dozen times during the Biden presidency This is an extremely powerful and connected person. I mean, I'm sure he listens to pop. Okay. We'll see you all next time This is episode one two nine
Starting point is 01:27:00 Of all in we'll see you in episode 130 bye-bye. Love you bye-bye We'll let your winners ride 9 of all in we'll see you in? What? What? What? What? What? What? What? Besties are gone Go thrift That's my dog taking a wish You're driving away So sex Get it off Oh man
Starting point is 01:27:35 My ham is the actual meat We should all just get a room and just have one big huger Because they're all just like this like sexual tension But we just need to release that out I'm doing all it

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