Earnings Season - 23 - Skin in the Game: First Quarter Stock Watch

Starting point is 00:00:00 all right boom hi guys hey 2020 welcome earning season i'm randy at rt row and i'm danai at h danai happy new year again guys happy new year guys here's a secret that we don't always talk about or at least we talk always talk about and say we don't talk about it this is our first recording for the year yeah so 2020 actually happy new year happy new year happy new year big up paying it for the last time so yeah big up miss jillian miss jilly j big up start here right did i say gilly or jilly i have screwed it up again her name is not gillyian sorry that is correct apologies and much respect to miss jilly j started off the year right talking about yeah the brick boss the brick boss miss jilly j started off the year talking about nhd how to get this going how to get

Starting point is 00:01:01 money going how to buy your house to power for the jamaican dream i know it's interesting i haven't told randy this yet so just this week so a guy at my office he's going to pick he's eligible now for his first he's that his birthday is the last day of the year oh the 31st okay yeah so he's first time eligible for his nhd refund oh word i don't think he's linked to your age he's linked to when you were... Oh, okay, okay, okay. Oh, so his birthday gift was applying for his NHG. So his birthday gift came around and then

Starting point is 00:01:31 his birthday gift was talking about NHG refund and that's when I heard a conversation at first. So when I went around to his birthday gift desk, he was telling somebody else so somebody else heard him having that conversation with him and was mentioning that, hey, you know, the NHG, and then they were showing him

Starting point is 00:01:47 a GDJ article. You remember when I said to her that I know people who know her work without knowing her? I've seen her threads outside of Twitter. That's weird. I've seen her files. That's not weird. That's reach. I've seen her. That is reach. Bigger up for that. I hope you guys checked out her website. I'll give her a free plug.

Starting point is 00:02:04 First plug of the year from us. Financial sensibility.com yeah and the sensibility spent like spelled like sense so there we go nts first show note shout out for the year check the show notes you'll see that link right now and that's me giving myself work again but you know where it go yeah man big up yeah big up every time for that uh We had also an episode that we had done preparing for the year. So we had reviewed 2019. Yeah. Yeah, it was a good... Run through all the plays and the gains.

Starting point is 00:02:36 Mm-hmm. Lots of gains. Just pull closer to it just in case we don't get the sound screw up. Are they like... He's good? You can hear him fine? For once, sir. Oh, I'm sorry.

Starting point is 00:02:49 Apologies. Apologies. Guys, in case you don't get the sound screw up are they like he's good you can hear him for once sir i'm sorry apologies apologies guys in case you don't know what that was that was me trying to tell danai to sit closer to the microphone like you dma all the time people everybody tell me that danai no fool no one one guy sees on twitter at h danai follow him talk to him right around here the popular one so you can keep me i'm good i don't need the popularity i i'll be like what's that guy little uzi vert and quit or what's the other one the new one um prince harry ha yo you're funny and yes we are definitely editing all of that out of the podcast oh wow wow wow no no big up

Starting point is 00:03:26 big up Prince Harry big up the queen I'm queen gang big up that gang she drives herself oh yeah that's not very cool I'm sorry

Starting point is 00:03:33 I was like yeah if you follow history I don't even drive myself you're a croft damn right so big up Croft with a degree

Starting point is 00:03:43 yeah big up Croft with that degree on Twitter. I rate his Twitter page so much. Yeah, you're hearing in the background, that's Bam, Sir Bam from the Babcast. Also, big up Bam for this year. We're doing this year either big or not at all. And since we're here doing it, we're doing it big.

Starting point is 00:03:58 The Jamaica Podcast Network, look out for it this year again. You have a podcast, show it to sold, send an email, get in contact. Where were we? We were just at the queen prince harry we're running through some stuff and the person i actually wanted to mention was lizzo oh but you guys how we reach prince harry and the queen she didn't quit quit quit didn't quit her job i thought she quit me i just saw a headline saying lizzo quit and you're not really interested in oh no i think she just quit twitter i saw i saw

Starting point is 00:04:24 a tweet from her saying you know she's done the twitter thing because it's rules she's not about the trolls did she delete her account i'm not even sure but i can understand i didn't follow beyond that i can understand quitting twitter but you know yeah whatever anyway back into the new year back in the new style so we spoke a lot about 2019 how we close it out um but we we recorded before the year was finally done completely and i think we were well i was worried that maybe something important would happen on december 31st oh yeah luckily it didn't did it what happened between our recording it was the last trading day of the year and yeah and i was like what's going to happen yeah yeah and also maybe something happened and i missed it. Because remember, end of September,

Starting point is 00:05:08 because going back into last year, end of September, Barita's stock pushed up on the last day. And I found that interesting. Right before the quarter ended. So that was interesting. What happened this year? This year, I'd have to search through. End of December 31st.

Starting point is 00:05:24 End of December, yeah. I'd have to search through to see what's going on but interesting times ahead because i look at the market now and opportunity opportunity opportunity yes this is this is for the first quarter it's going to be a hell of an episode i think for the first quarter it's going to be a hell of a year what we're going to have happening a lot is the opportunity for a lot of people to make money in whichever way they care so if you're one of those people who care about like care about ipos and a lot of people care about ipos um then you're gonna have a bunch of ipos to care about if you're one of those people like me and the naira near those other people or people who

Starting point is 00:06:01 have gone past the step one of getting into stocks you know that ipo is once every once in a blue i want to once in a blue bone but it's not what pushes what what runs what reruns the market what reruns the money so it's run through our picks last year and truly most of what most of the money we make on the market isn't from ipos i had a conversation with the telegram group we speak about a lot. That you speak about a lot. That people DM me for a lot. Again, you know, pause. Good thing. Guys, let's do 2020 right.

Starting point is 00:06:31 We always tell you how to join the group. All right? We tell you how to get in contact. Stop contacting me about it, but link Danai, you know? No, they've been linking me. They've been linking you. Yeah, man, keep it up.

Starting point is 00:06:39 Don't link me. Link Danai. At H Danai on Twitter. If you're not on Twitter, he's Danai at everminkle.com. All right, cool, cool, cool. That's me, that's me making sure all the power go to Danai. All right.

Starting point is 00:06:51 So yeah, yeah, link him, but tell him, tell him what's been happening. Yeah, so we're speaking, so there's a brand new person. He's new to the investing landscape. He listens to the podcast. I think he just hasn't pulled the trigger yet. He's looking at buying, he's looking at getting an account working on everything right just starting to get into it and his thoughts there are no ipos in the market that he's attracted to right now but he's looking at his start to be an ipo so i'm looking uh so what we're saying to him is that look you look at the market so

Starting point is 00:07:20 you're looking to start investing the thing you want is an IPO the IPOs that are out now you're not interested in them so you're going to wait until an IPO possibly comes up whenever it comes up to be your start so we're saying hey suppose no more IPO comes for the year we think that's unlikely but in the case where it doesn't happen either stone start investing yeah you can do that the market is there and then if you come you start to make some losses sure but guess what you never learned anything if the first time I pull the plug it's an IPO yeah that's so yeah it helps to be in the market understand the market and you, my first stock was not an IPO. IPOs were there.

Starting point is 00:08:06 I didn't get into it at IPOs. When I just started working, there was an IPO from the place I was working at. I just didn't get into IPOs at the start. I learned the market before I got into an IPO, and I did well in an IPO just because of my prior understanding of the market from investing prior. So don't make IPOs be the be-all, end-all of your investing. Again, investing is to build your war chest.

Starting point is 00:08:29 You want to have something building for you over time. You make a good amount of money. So whenever your goal is to access that money, then you have something built up from your investing. If you're waiting on IPOs to be the thing, then guess what? You're missing a lot. The after gains made outside of IPOs. I think thing, then guess what? You're missing a lot. Yeah, you might. After gains made outside of IPOs, I

Starting point is 00:08:46 think of it this way. When I look at my investment strategy, when I run through what I'm going to invest in for, say, a year, for any period of time, I look at it year to year. So I look at it year and I say, what's going to be my money for this year? What's going to make me more money this year?

Starting point is 00:09:01 I can't think IPOs because there's nothing all right now on this company so how am i factoring what i don't know into the equation unknown as i said before unknown is risk so i'm going to take the risk of this thing that i don't know about when it come in i don't know what's going to look like and i wasn't supposed to say i don't know what can i return to expect from this how am i factoring that into my plans i was looking for oh i want to pop a hundred percent ipo and then 10 percent ipos come out and then what right i'm gone i never made a hundred percent this year i just made that or say a hundred percent ipo

Starting point is 00:09:34 come with like a bad allocation i only got five percent of my money in there and i get mashed up again so you can't you really not even kind of you really have to get beyond just the ipo mindset if you want to do this thing for you yeah yeah if you're actually trying to make money from stocks believe it or not like then i started off saying it's not ipos that you really make the money yeah the market is home every day ipo for a company happens once yeah yeah it don't make sense like it don't make sense to that but i think i started poorly i think i should start properly because a lot of people will listen to us for the first time because we got a lot of new listeners.

Starting point is 00:10:06 Welcome here. So let me do a proper thing. Yeah. Much as proper, as properly as I can. Imagine this. Yeah. So 2020 will start.

Starting point is 00:10:13 I don't know what you're talking about. Right? Yeah. Imagine, yo, we lost completely. What are these guys talking about? Who are these guys?

Starting point is 00:10:18 I'm Randy. I trade stocks on the JSC. Yeah. I know a thing or two about that. I've been doing it for a little while now. Little. You've been doing it for a long while, sir. A long while, but I'd like to not age myself,

Starting point is 00:10:30 which is my long-running thing, where that night I'm at the other day and say, you know, you're the only person who thinks you're young, right? Wrong. My parents also think I'm young. You could gauge your parents, you know? Yeah, of course, of course. The people who have to love me legally

Starting point is 00:10:45 um so we talk about stocks and it's a conversation uh if you're expecting the business news if you're expecting us to go through point by point story by story all this made experts in whenever no that's not that's not gonna happen if you're looking for like complicated conversations around you know the proper terms and that's going into really what you know all what what you're not gonna get at either. I'm rude. I didn't introduce myself. You didn't introduce yourself properly, sir.

Starting point is 00:11:09 Go ahead. Danai Hall. I do stocks for an actual short while. Not really short. Short three years now. As of end of 2019. That'll be my third year investing. But I think I have a good amount of expertise on making money on this market. For the three years I've been in it, I've been making money.

Starting point is 00:11:24 But that's not my day job, day day job I do risk analysis for our local brokerage house so yeah that's me and let's go guys yeah yeah this is earning season this is where we talk about stocks so if you are a beginner if you don't know finance if you're afraid of numbers you probably should be listening to this um we try to lead it in the place where you're not afraid of numbers where you actually want to invest you want to get in a good place so you can start and you want to make some money you want this is what we're doing this we're not doing this because you don't want to buy a company and sit down on the company not making any money on the company you want to make educated decisions you want to make action do this to make money so you can put yourself in a better place you don't

Starting point is 00:12:00 get a better get in a better say better place by losing money i can't see where that would work out for you exactly so this this podcast to give you a little bit of history started as an arm of my website every mickle.com that's a website that's built around bringing financial literacy to regular normal jamaican people regular digger every mickle mickle there we go every mickle.com check the show notes if you don't know the show notes are check either little info part of your app or if you listen to this on soundcloud you click the little part that have the i beside or something like that but yeah show notes are there or if you see it on the twitter stream usually i show the show notes also links are there that explains things like earlier we were mentioning um that website from from jillian um financialsensibility.com that's in

Starting point is 00:12:44 the show notes. Stuff like that. That's what we do. That's what we do on this. We talk. We give our views on things. We're not always right, but we're also never afraid to say when we're wrong.

Starting point is 00:12:52 Yeah, definitely. That's a big part of the journey. Yeah. Getting it wrong is a part of the journey. Hey, I'm wrong. Yeah, and finding out why. Getting it wrong

Starting point is 00:12:59 can lead to being right. It can lead to making money just by being wrong about something there we go that might sound weird but i think i'll explain it yeah there we go so podcast drops on a wednesday every wednesday and we put out the content that we like so feel free to pressure us if it's not out on a wednesday we do aim for it to be out on a wednesday sometimes but not not often so i don't want to sometimes things have come in the way before but

Starting point is 00:13:25 if it's not all precious people usually pressure us so it's precious yeah pressure us we like that we like that social pressure

Starting point is 00:13:32 we get it out there so if it's either we'll drop 11.59pm on a Wednesday or earlier that's our promise to you we aim for a Wednesday so that's what we do

Starting point is 00:13:42 and we talk about stocks in a regular way so we don't tell people to buy we're neither of us are financial analysts as you heard we're not financial advisors we're not financial advisors we are yeah we're analysts in the true sense but we're not licensed financial advisors and nothing we do on this show is financial advice officially we're just talking our stories telling what we think and sometimes we have people on the show that tell what they

Starting point is 00:14:03 think we've had licensed people on the show too so yeah we've had a couple of licensed people on the show and hopefully this year we'll have more that we like to bring people on that can enlighten you guys and entertain us so that's a big thing sometimes enlighten us give us some different perspectives so we can help us make some more money elsewhere there we go sometimes our episodes are long sometimes they're short but what we try to ensure is that they're always interesting for that value yeah there we go so now you know what you listen to you know who you listen to let's go we're looking at the first quarter of the year if you don't know what a quarter is it's three months out of the year first the fourth of the year three months of the year so the first first three months of 2020

Starting point is 00:14:37 what we expect so far and what we expect going forward all right what has happened so far what has happened so far so so far i've seen where two companies because i was looking at it i'm saying that two companies so far have announced right right issues but not announced right issues so i don't intention to have intention to increase their have they so one company yeah has i would say they have some level of intention to do a stock split, I think, from Jamtee. They mentioned that their directors are going to decide on a stock split. And this is whom?

Starting point is 00:15:12 Jamtee, Jamaican Tees. Company listed on Jamaican Stock Exchange. Luna Market. And Tickle is Jamtee. Tickle is also the symbol for the stock to trade under. There we go. So, yeah, they have said they they want they're considering a stock split one of their directors has been in the papers recently speaking about stock splits and how how they affect companies

Starting point is 00:15:35 and shareholders so to me it just looks to me like hey we're doing a stock split in fact the director in question is john jackson big up john jackson oh yeah man and um industry heavyweight yeah industry heavyweight love him or hate him he's there you can't ignore him yeah i rate him um and he spoke about a split he spoke i could be wrong so i'll link i think i'm i don't have it in front of me i'll bring it up i think i'm quoting a loop article where he spoke about a split he just said you know where it's not a rights issue he clarified that so i had done a tweet where i said jamty hmms yeah because it's subdivision on shares in the and issue of shares but you know yeah it's not really split the issue shares but it's based on how much shares you have so we call it a split exactly um and to do that you have to get the permission of the shareholders so they're like they, they intend to do it. And if we bring it to it,

Starting point is 00:16:25 you'll have to be approved at either an AGM or a special AGM, annual general meeting. But usually, I mean, these guys run the company and they also own the majority of the company. So if they say we are thinking of doing it, chances are it's going to be done. Yeah, that's like me saying I'm thinking of having lunch today. Chances are I'm going to have lunch today.

Starting point is 00:16:42 Or realistically speaking, chances are I'm not going to have lunch today and i'm going to remember tonight and go oh god i never eat but yeah the point is they do it if they want to so jam t said there's a stock split i'll put that article in the show notes and you're saying and another one pulse pulse investments these are two companies spoke about last year we had favorable outlooks on them yeah that pulse boy people listen to this and make i know people have made money off plus and they're at six or seven dollars right now trading are trading definitely at six or six or seven dollars they and i think they have more room to go just based on the fact that new business coming in the rights i think the world's i don't think it's a stock split for pulse i don't think so but they've they have it's a right split for Poles. I don't think so, but they have...

Starting point is 00:17:25 It's a rights issue. I'm not sure. They haven't said. What they have said is that they intend to increase their authorized share capital. And they're looking for, at the AGM, the common AGM, they're looking for shareholders to vote on it. So we're going to increase the share capital. So authorized share capital is the amount of shares that a company can have outstanding issued at any point in time so if they increase that then they give themselves more room some more shares that are currently available to be available so the way

Starting point is 00:17:55 i see it increase the share capital and then do a right issue so we can get more money in the company and fund whatever else and this is on the back of a 250 million dollar u.s bond deal they had recently well they raised it already through a global note it was u.s right yeah yes yes so it's u.s well it's u.s u.s yes so u.s 250 us um 250 million dollars global note so yeah they some money into the company they have said they're going to i think they have already retired existing debt so they're debt-free on well not debt-free i don't know about debt-free but i know that some of the debt that's in the company already is no longer there i need clarification on debt-free let me run some numbers well i know what they did before is they had 65 million the out of the money that they raised from the global bond the 250 million

Starting point is 00:18:45 they they and i think it's jamaican i don't know if it's us i think it's jamaican yeah it's only very big at 250 million yeah right but but the global bond for 250 million jamaican they took 65 million of it and settled bank debt settled bank debt yeah so there were lower debt burden right now well not lower i don't know they have 65 million debt off books and the net of that of the 250 and that on the books so 185 mil on the global note side but bank debt is usually worse than bond debt because the payment period the bank that they want interest and some of the capital being paid back meanwhile the global bond they pay the interest every whenever until the fact the end of the days they

Starting point is 00:19:25 just have to pay the full amount but by then they probably refinance or they have money sitting down yeah then based on what they do with money or or they or they can raise new debt and pay that one and companies that countries do that yeah it makes sense it does make sense yeah um i think up to june 2019 is the first number that could fling in front of myself i don't know why because i know that go on talk i will find some more numbers i can give you guys some accurate up-to-date numbers yeah man so think there so to me that's an intention to do something they don't increase authorized for no reason so my thinking is maybe a rights issue to fund the coming deals that they have so they're going into they're expanding their real

Starting point is 00:20:05 estate business so they're they're going to probably use that to fund some of it well they've said that they've said openly again another article this one's in the glena um they said that they they're going to use the remaining 185 which so they use 65 to clear bank debt and the remaining audit 185 is going to be split between Villarani and Paul's Homes Project. So they're trying to use, they have a lot of land up in Stonehill near Villarani there. And they want to put some residential homes. They have a lot of land there that they're not using. Yeah, they've always had it for years.

Starting point is 00:20:37 So they put forward the thing saying there's a possible rights issue. But here's the secret. Is it a possible rights issue? I think that's the gleaner. That's the gleaner making that assumption I believe and I think I think there there is other possibilities

Starting point is 00:20:48 that they're right very likely I'm thinking it's going to happen too very likely but they haven't officially said that they haven't officially said anything yeah so

Starting point is 00:20:53 I know that I talk in other terms yes that's true that's true let's not put no words in anybody else's mouth however it's good that

Starting point is 00:21:00 so let's simplify for the people who listen for the first time the man them have some old debt, then borrow a whole lot more new money, probably at a better rate, pay off the old debt,

Starting point is 00:21:10 which is probably at a worse rate, keep the rest of the money, and then going to put into building out pulse homes, and then already have pulse itself, which is modeling and production and all of that, and also has a hotel in New Kingston, a lower-cost hotel in New Kingston. So, bigger pulse for that.

Starting point is 00:21:24 Also, interesting to me about the New Kingston, so they said the space in New Kingston, a lower-cost hotel in New Kingston. So, a bigger pulse for that. Also, interesting to me about the New Kingston. So, they said the space in New Kingston, I think they clarified exactly what they do with it and they said 90% is rented out to businesses. So, like, here are salons and such. So, this is recurring income in the company.

Starting point is 00:21:40 That's true. Pepper seed every Wednesday. I'm not really worrying about all these guys will come and need a business hotel. that's true like pepper seed every Wednesday I'm not really worrying about all this guy will come and he's a business hotel I have 90% of that book coming in through coming through a hair salon is there and they need to use it so they need to run the space is booked I believe that that marijuana place is there to sense it since he's also there at the top floor big glass place to see them there yeah, so business is there. Business is usually a better...

Starting point is 00:22:12 Better tenant. A better... Ah, yeah, because you have money coming in. Money coming in. Yeah, people coming into the actual place. Yeah. Yeah. So that's good for both. And then if you have a business environment

Starting point is 00:22:21 around residential. So if I have like said, oh, 10% is being used by people that are in a business hotel. You come to Jamaica and you see, if I can sleep beside Jamaica, a weed place in Jamaica, I have access to a hair salon.

Starting point is 00:22:35 I can do my business. I'm in New Kingston right there. That's a good location to have residential. Well, not residential, but like an Airbnb type of thing like if people come to the short term rentals

Starting point is 00:22:48 mixed use short term rentals mixed use and mixed use business use which like you say is great because that's

Starting point is 00:22:54 that's a good place and every now and then you see a party down by Paul so imagine every Wednesday I think every Wednesday

Starting point is 00:22:59 to proceed that's a good place for somebody to make an experience or anybody you know how it goes in Kingston right now with a lot of tourists or business tourists more people have more money more things happening place for somebody to it's a jamaican experience so anybody you know how you go in kingston right now with a lot of tourists or business tourists more people have more money more things happening

Starting point is 00:23:09 yeah yeah so it's a really it's a really good space and then stony hill you know that go good location hotel in the hills yeah good yeah but they're doing homes and stony hill is location it's heavy location even jam t looking to go something around that area yeah but brett you know i don't know if i'm still you know i think i'm still live up there and Stonehill is location it's heavy location even Jamtee looking to go something around that area yeah but I don't know if he's still I think he's still up there

Starting point is 00:23:28 I'm listening I won't call him name I won't load him up but he knows himself I'm right near Villa and I

Starting point is 00:23:32 very nice area to live very cool very quiet yeah and they're doing this on the

Starting point is 00:23:42 back of impressive results yes impressive results they're putting a on the back of impressive results. Yes, they have impressive results. They're putting a lot more cash than they have been doing. So for the cash people, a lot more cash than they have been doing before. And you can see where they bought a lot of real estate gain. Real estate gain.

Starting point is 00:23:58 Real estate gain. 2020 is the year of real estate. And real estate gain in this case means that the values. The value of the properties are increased, means i can say for more if generally how we charge rent is this worth this and i want a percentage of this so my rent will be a person so i can charge more rent based on this being worth more you're gonna hire to have a higher class space. Yeah, or I can borrow against. I can borrow against and you see that you're a good owner and you can borrow against.

Starting point is 00:24:30 It's like you have a stock portfolio and you're margining it. So you borrow against the value of the portfolio. If I have a higher value portfolio, then I can borrow more money. If I have a portfolio of real estate, I can borrow more money against it. Uncollateralized debt is cheaper. Yes, because the land is not going anywhere. The bank is pretty fine. Say, okay, take this at a lower rate because if anything happen

Starting point is 00:24:49 we can take this land from you and the joke of the joke of higher rated debt so i collateralized that it's there's a collateral the building sure it's easier to manage so it's always funny that the guy that needs it the least it will have the have less problems paying it back so i can pay seven percent on this because of collateral but without the place i'll pay without something to back it i'm paying 10 percent so works all good to me yeah i think who was it that said it um i don't know i think it's bob hope one of my american guys will say a bank is a place that will lend you money if you can prove you don't need it yeah yeah so the guy who doesn't need it gets the best rates yeah because he'll probably pay them back so you understand the thinking yeah he's like okay i don't need this money because it's a function

Starting point is 00:25:35 of risk yeah yeah um and and as i said they've done this on the back of the last results were september 30th 2019 um and they had at that point made let me tell you in revenue they had made 149.3 million jamaican just between that's what july august and september yeah july to september 2019 they made 149.3 million in revenue and net profit 242.7 mil so you know obviously that number the net profit is higher than the revenue yeah because some software in subject to expenses because of the capital gain on the property yeah fair value appreciation property yeah they made as much in terms of fair value appreciation as almost as much in terms of fair value appreciation than they did in terms of

Starting point is 00:26:25 revenue so 145.4 that's like your stock portfolio growing as much as your your day job oh which is something that you did last year right yeah i think i got it and then i did it uh yeah so 242 in the end in terms of what they made profit from operations is 98 million uh yeah it's it's it's it's a good thing to see i'm happy that they're they're concentrating and getting things going and a lot of people don't understand pulses but not how do you understand they don't know because you think policy you think the mother things are people just they cut it off at oh paul's a hair post modeling and don't look any deeper so this is the diversification should be good for people that don't understand i saw a tweet today saying they don't really understand paul's business let me find the tweet and read it

Starting point is 00:27:17 and somebody's saying that well while you look for the tweet i'll just i'll just um mark the monk he said every week somebody sends me oh no wrong guy wrong twitter big up mark the monk mark the monk big up big up mark i'm supposed to be busy right now for the start of the year start of the year new year new me jim yeah pulse has a very dot dot dot different business model at this point i'm not sure what pulse is and that's for years they've been in real estate yes people just don't know so pulse investment pulse investment that's what they are they've been putting out some more marketing on what they do you see them more in the rental space more now yes the articles coming in paper

Starting point is 00:27:57 on the real estate business but generally all the jamaicans know pulse for the modeling that's true so i i think people don't know that they make good money on the modeling too. Yes. Serious money. They have some top level models. I think one of the highest paid models at some point last year. All the time. Some of the best in the world.

Starting point is 00:28:15 The best in the world. The top paid model. The best of Africa and the Caribbean, they say. They have a presence in Africa also. They definitely say moving to a stronger African person because that's the market. People love African models. That look. Tall, black, stately, you know?

Starting point is 00:28:32 King line. Queen line also. So, good news for Pulse. Good business. I believe in it. Strong company. So, literally at the point where they're making the greatest profits that they've made in, I think, their entire entire existence they're looking to make even more and stretch out how they make more money through real estate through using the asset that they have

Starting point is 00:28:53 already yeah things are good for us i don't diversify often but i love when my companies diversify all right so the company the company is negating the risk of investing in that company. Aha. So I can expose myself to their profits only or short of all. Yeah. But they're making sure that they grab money from every single place. And if their place goes down, they're making some money over here too. So my shareholders are happy. There we go. Because their core, I hate to say it, but core operations,

Starting point is 00:29:20 meaning non-investment property gains profit from uh that quarter just mentioned the year before in 2018 it was 76 this year yeah 76 million this year is 98 so that's a 30 percent just on that course on the court you're not counting i hate i use the i hate the use of core because it core acts like the company can't do anything else so using so using it like or the core of the company and then acting as if the rest of the company that's like me saying going to grace and saying oh core is foods because i know them for foods exactly so anything that they lose would be food right but as i said if grace lose that money transfer service grace very different so yes the strength of company isn't necessarily its core operation sure i understand you're trying to

Starting point is 00:30:03 come from the point of where they have expertise, but people buy expertise all the time. It's a reason why, oh, you have a new business line and this guy you don't know, but you know he's great at whatever he does. He's been hired into the business because we're bringing in expertise. Or you don't necessarily know the expertise of the current people beyond what they're doing right now. Exactly. Suppose this guy was in real estate management.

Starting point is 00:30:23 Of course, his chairman, Kingsley Cooper, he used to be charged a management fee. It's funny. know exactly this guy was in real estate management um portis chairman king to cooper he used to be charged a management fee it's funny he's been charged a management fee from he's tried a management fee to the company for the management of the assets well i think and he caught that now i think well he's got yeah he owned a separate company which which paulus used to have to pay a management fee too yeah um and now he stopped that he stopped that and say he's just going straight with his ownership so any money you get him get like the rest of us through dividends which is good because he's good and yeah so more comes to us with bottom line growth more comes to us so that's a really altruistic move to be honest but end of the day when you look at something like that you have to

Starting point is 00:31:04 look at i also look at the fact that he was being charged whatever he was charging whatever for the management so he has experience in management of whatever is so when i say paul's core is modeling we're ignoring the fact that hey we're doing more and the core the core modeling if you're looking at core for that the core wasn't modeling the core is yeah the core is television event production and there was the real estate games fashion business and the real estate yeah what they do is everything that they do yeah correct telling me that this they only do this as core yeah they said they have 14 revenue streams imagine we tell the berkshire that they only know investments i'm gonna stick to it you mean they only know insurance i'm gonna say

Starting point is 00:31:44 you mean they only know distribution so they won't stick to it yeah you mean they only know investments and won't stick to it you mean they only know insurance you mean they only know distribution so they won't stick to it yeah you mean they only know consumer goods so they won't stick to it yeah yeah yeah everybody grows everybody that's that thing that's almost everyone's dream imagine i start a company and i see where i can have a lot of money now and i can capitalize on this other market. Till one day my grandkids are working on Glow Marit. There we go. And that's a secret. And that's the real point. That's the real operation break point break.

Starting point is 00:32:12 You can build it for your family. The CEO of Pulse is Kingsley Cooper's daughter. Dig her up. Safia Cooper. Yeah, and she's doing a good job. Yeah, and think about it. She, younger, know about, I guess i guess a party space she knows that scene care about you know that scene much more and that's why it's no surprise that you have like

Starting point is 00:32:32 every wednesday you have pepper seed there because that's an event that's a cultural event that's always packed that's always relevant that i i could be wrong here i'm guessing but i'm assuming she had a major influence in having and keeping and bringing there bringing and keeping because we've seen parties move all over that one has stayed there and consistently there and consistently good it's like a known thing you can go to that's what i'm talking about understanding generation so kings kings did well for his day yes but he knows that when the change comes when the author will understand her generation and she'll be bringing she bring in the new generation with her so we know how to get catch up that market because she understands that market from from the perspective of that

Starting point is 00:33:10 market i'm looking i'm outside looking in perfect and he did it he actually stepped out from the ceo role had her step in as you and he moved up to big chairman yeah yeah so you know he graduated himself to the board and allowed the day-to-day to run through his daughter. And that's generational wealth. It's not been a bad job. Yeah, it's been a great job. Under her, yo, under her tenure, I have made a lot of money from Paul. So, big up Safia Cooper for that. But we said this from the perspective of Q1.

Starting point is 00:33:37 So, they're starting that, they have a rights issue coming, we assume. I'm assuming a rights issue or something similar. It may be the APO last year. I think companies are now exploring other ways of raising capital or doing business or doing corporate actions

Starting point is 00:33:56 in the market. So our market is getting more developed. It's not just a regular, regular that everybody knows. So more things are happening. So yeah, I think something similar is coming. Increase the share capital and here we are yeah funny enough back in my days are trading so i said my back in my days might have been before you started i might might have been just when you had started november 2017 they actually had a they had considered a rights issue then and register our stocks please our rights issues what they were

Starting point is 00:34:22 considering in 2017 and they had put it off because they said they secured the funding privately elsewhere so i'm wondering if that funding that day in 2017 they were going to the right watch the play 2017 they're going to the rights issue stopped it and said they're not doing it anymore and they were clear because we have received the money through a global bond well i don't know if it was a global bond but through another bond and it was a bond though because i know cap market had something to do that they had a bond from cap markets and they had funding from a related party probably maybe kingsley did it privately and and put it that's how that thing happens and so they put off the rights issue they canceled having it and as in november 2017 i'll put that in the show notes also and 2018 happened

Starting point is 00:35:08 they grew i really like them i mean 2017 i think pulse might have been like a dollar something yeah remember that yeah yeah i was struggling because the valuation you never touched no three dollar them time man we're not trading into that yeah when people never rate pulse back then man but remember this end of 2017 that i've gotten money and so they never did the right issue that's how they raise money 2018 then put in the work they got it going and you started seeing them making money but this stock pricing will really fly how it should people never pay attention people like me was buying right 2019 you start seeing the fruits of the labor now really coming in. And at the end of 2019, the man named coming with, boom, we're giving you a rights issue again. Whether or not they do the rights issue, what I know is that whenever these guys get money, they put in work.

Starting point is 00:35:54 And within a year or two, you have a whole heap of good coming from them, right? But they're already on a heavy two-year base. So these guys already know what is going on what what to do so you you can't you can't knock that's all the expertise you can't not good business yeah exactly speaking of when these guys have money they know they when they get money they pull out of value from it signals signals you want to jump to that already yeah man yeah straight because that's actually the next one i'm at another another rights issue um consideration yes well i don't know if it's consideration no no man so corporate talk no no we'll all right so if we're going corporate talk 2020 i'm dealing with

Starting point is 00:36:33 everybody serious because it's business the ceo of cygnus said on kalila's show he said rights issue did he or did he not he said we're considering doing a rights issue considering doing a rights issue that's that's how i talk okay okay yeah so no if he didn't say it i'm not going to put words in his mouth big what was his name barry's barry's barry's ford gray barry's ford gray big up barry's ford gray that man knows a lot you know like just hearing him a message on that when i was watching the show yeah just hearing him speak about speak about his company in the way he was talking about it you don't get that a lot from, I'll be straight saying,

Starting point is 00:37:07 other CEOs, they don't talk like that about their company. They don't talk. Woo! Danai with the fire. I think it's, a big part of it is the quiet thing.

Starting point is 00:37:15 In Jamaica, I feel like we don't hear from our business leaders unless you go to AGM. That's true. Very few business leaders generally speak and when they do speak,

Starting point is 00:37:22 it's very canned, very prepared and then they're gone. Yeah, that's exactly it. The business environment in Jamaicaamaica is changing then it's done people have to talk on the fly people have to know what i'm talking about if you don't know what you're talking about you're going to get licked because she's bringing the author that to us yeah she's allowing us to hear a lot of them speak and speak of course obviously a lot of it is prepared i mean it's tv yeah we don't anybody look bad and we don't need people to look bad we want everybody to look good because we get money when people look good um and i think just adding to your point there i better said a great job on

Starting point is 00:37:51 her show yeah definitely i link her show in the show notes you don't feel you don't feel rehearsed talk down to earth yo talking about this is the company and when she referenced the the last on the quarter that Q1 last year from the thing there and the way he phrased it and the way he spoke about it he's like let me talk about my numbers

Starting point is 00:38:09 just off the fly that was really good to me that's a man that knows his company that easy knowledge is obvious when people have it I know to look for it in people

Starting point is 00:38:18 it's like you got a doctor and you have the doctor them work but I don't know and you have a doctor them that reassured and know them it doesn't necessarily mean that the doctor that don't have that don't know and you have a doctor them that reassured and know them it doesn't necessarily

Starting point is 00:38:25 mean that the doctor that don't have that don't know you know but there's nothing that can beat the calm reassurance like I know what I'm talking about

Starting point is 00:38:32 I'm not worried the man who has to say I am king is no king at all if you don't have to say it and it's obvious it's obvious a big up bears for that

Starting point is 00:38:39 I like what he's been doing of course I'm biased because homie has helped me make a lot of money they're preparing to make us some more yeah so he spoke about raising 35 35 million us the company to date has a capital of 39 million or thereabouts i think so that's um that's about doubling the capital of the company signals has beenus has been... So Cygnus...

Starting point is 00:39:05 I'm sure I've spoken about this already, so you'll do it with me. No, we have new people. It's all right. Good. Talk, talk. It's fine. I'm sure people don't mind.

Starting point is 00:39:12 I'm sorry, but I realize company. Somebody shout at them right now. Don't talk tonight. They're raising 50 mil from debt and 20 mil. They're considering 50 mil from debt and 20 mil from a rights issue. Right? So Cygnus is a very lean company.

Starting point is 00:39:29 They don't have employees sitting down doing this and they have a payment of this administrative desk. It's a company. So Cygnus Capital Management manages and I think owns a part of Cygnus Credit Investments. Cygnus Credit Investments. Mm-hmm.

Starting point is 00:39:46 Cygnus Credit Investments is a company we own on the market. SCI, JMD, SCI, USD. Cool? So, it doesn't have employees doing it. They just charge a management fee.

Starting point is 00:39:55 They're just being charged a management fee from Cygnus Capital Management, which really does a day-to-day. We have some, we're structuring a deal. We take some money

Starting point is 00:40:03 from credit investments and put it over into the deal and we make some money on doing a structure in a deal we take some money from credit investments and put it over into thing there we go over into the deal and we make some money on that end we structure the loans equity deals for for companies private companies probably sometimes public but yeah um they've been a champion of we have some money this money will work it's not like all you go to this manufacturing place and you give them some money and they have a build up this place and then this place can get some money they do they get some money and the money start working income stones coming on and that same money saying that because there's not much to it you mean loans

Starting point is 00:40:40 get the loan and interest payments pay not so to me that's signals raising double the money they had before it that sounds to me like okay we're gonna make double the money we made last time yeah in fact what you said it in a previous episode now they don't raise money unless they have something to do unless they want something to do yeah they did the IPO and during the IPO they had they had some other deals beyond what they were thinking and they're upside to the IPO yes they took more money short order money that money deployed went through all i here we are no yeah cygnus's model i can get in trouble i'm sure for some people saying it but that's what i do is relatively simple uh oh it's like good good business it's simple but it's not easy but it's

Starting point is 00:41:22 not easy there we go the sicknesses model is simple they take money they i sorry i did it wrong they identify opportunities first that's the part nobody really want to pay attention identify opportunities first that fits to your point and after identifying opportunities they quantify how much money you'll cost blah blah blah and then they raise money to put into those opportunities so you don't have to worry that you're if you're giving signals a billion dollars the billion dollars gonna sit down in signals bank account blah blah blah and then they raise money to put into those opportunities so you don't have to worry that if you're giving Cygnus a billion dollars the billion dollars

Starting point is 00:41:47 are going to sit down in Cygnus' bank account they only ask for a billion when they find something for a billion to go into already which means that whenever Cygnus is asking

Starting point is 00:41:54 for money there's already something out there that they expect to make money from these guys have a lot of experience and they've shown they've shown us so far

Starting point is 00:42:02 that on Kyla's show they mentioned that they have no they have not us so far that on kaila's show they mentioned that they have no they have not had a default yeah because they're so careful about it's not not common it's not it doesn't happen it does not happen imagine where we're lending we're fueling the smes in the caribbean and everybody pays us everybody pays us back you know why because set up them things in a certain way even if you screw it up all right now i own a pc company and let me tell you how you're going to

Starting point is 00:42:25 run this thing properly. Yeah. So, Cygnus is, it would appear to me, to be a very good partner for

Starting point is 00:42:32 certain companies. definitely. We're talking about the growth. We want SME loans to be deployed. SMEs complain all the time.

Starting point is 00:42:38 I'm sure at Cygnus, they do their due diligence. They want the companies to be at a certain level before they invest in them.

Starting point is 00:42:43 Imagine the owner piece and the company wasn't 100 yet. The owner piece and the company to be at a certain level before they invest in them imagine the owner piece and the company wasn't 100 yet owner piece and then you can force structure so the company

Starting point is 00:42:48 can be 100 and making those loan payments and the company grow while they own the site yeah that's a win on top

Starting point is 00:42:53 of a win yeah bottom line is bottom line is yeah I believe Cygnus is good Cygnus is great to me

Starting point is 00:43:04 Cygnus is great yeah Cy good signals is great to me sickness is great yeah yeah um right so right now the pe is around 20 something that's near the market if not beating the market let me let me let me let me let me put pressure on you and well let me put pressure on your people let me put pressure on your people oh your industry people uh by seeing what mayberry has as their pe so mayberry has their pe for cygnus sci and i'm just looking on the jamaican dollar one cygnus have two types of shares us and jamaican dollars the jamaican dollar shares are 27 as we speak. $27 flat and the PE ratio on that is 12.57 according to Mayberry.

Starting point is 00:43:50 Wait, but I don't agree with that. Oh, word. You want to disagree with the people on air? Uh, no. The truth is the truth. I don't think there's any quarreling. And if they calculate it differently, then that's I think that would be the issue. Alright, so guys, I'm not going to do too many explanations. I know somebody else is going,

Starting point is 00:44:05 yes, Randy, Jesus Christ, stop explaining everything. So we won't explain what PE is, if you know it, you know it. I will say, however, that in general, higher PE is generally considered to be worse. Lower is generally considered to be bad. It's not to be all and end all. Again, perspective.

Starting point is 00:44:18 Perspective, yes. Don't try to butcher him. Jesus Christ, yeah. However, I say that to lead into your point, Danai. So tell us how you, what do Cygnus' PE is and why? All right. So give me the EPS I have there. I use the EPS there.

Starting point is 00:44:31 Their EPS, which is earnings per share, their EPS, the EPS for SCI JMD, which is Cygnus' ticker or nickname, is currently at $27. It's currently... EPS is not going to change based on that. No, no, no. I'm just just given all the factors i had to work it backwards but call it 2.15 what's that 2.15 two cents two dollars i think i think their eps is

Starting point is 00:44:57 using the normal the eps is using so i think the calculation they have is only using the share capital of the sci jmd but they have the factor in sci share capital of the SCI JMD, but they have to factor in SCI USD. Because the company actually has a double amount of shares. Double, yeah. Does it though? They have more JMD than they have USD shares. Meaning share number? Share number.

Starting point is 00:45:17 Because remember how the IPO was. You apply for anything you want and anything you get, anything whatever you wanted was what you got. So you apply for JMD or USD. If you apply for USD, then the issue shares to you in as usd if i buy for jamie the issue in jamie to me that says there are more applicants for jamie for the jmd than the usd which would make sense it's jamaica and we've seen where the effects are there's much more trading on the jmd side yeah sometimes i mean for weeks months the us dollar stocks will just not trade.

Starting point is 00:45:46 So somebody listening right now going, yes, come have my signals, US dollar stocks. Guys, US dollar stocks sometimes in Jamaica just don't trade a lot. It doesn't mean anything. A trade only happens when somebody else wants to buy and you want to sell or vice versa. And if you're not one of those two people, trade won't happen. If those two people don't meet trades don't happen so all right so i remember i think the eps for the total here was 84 cents okay 0.0084 cents usd at a 135 conversion rate that's 1.134 so my pe would be

Starting point is 00:46:26 So my PE would be 23. 23 is what you're working with. So you're working with a PE of 23. 23, it has more in it or you just round it up? 23.809. 23.809. Let me see something. So that's my PE.

Starting point is 00:46:42 That's your PE. Yeah. I'll work with that. I'm cool with that because the market average p.e. right now obviously say that number again let me let me

Starting point is 00:46:50 23.8 23.8 hmm hmm 23.8 what 8.1 8.1

Starting point is 00:46:59 alright so the average p.e. on the market at the time we're recording this we're recording this, when we're recording this at the end of the first week in January.

Starting point is 00:47:10 Yeah, January 11th. Yeah, January 11th. So the average PE across the market is 26.5 times. So they're below the market. Yeah, I remember having a conversation about five years ago, or three years ago, saying, I can see a case for the average PE on the jc being 20 and it should be normal for a pe of 20 and thereabouts and as i was giving hell for it because people expect the average pe range to be 10 to 18 what people do they they speak based on but they're used to the average pe

Starting point is 00:47:41 being what it was at the time because it's always been as far as i'm concerned this is a good pe and here we are yeah i want you to tell me that i can buy a company at a discount to the average PE being what it was at the time. Because it's always been that. As far as I'm concerned, this is a good PE. And here we are. So I want you to tell me that I can buy a company at a discount to the market. And I'm wrong for it. Yeah. Yeah. So, yeah. So, yeah.

Starting point is 00:47:55 In the face. So, signal set a PE of 23 below the market. And then we're going to take some new money to make more money on. So, I'm cutting down that pe significantly yeah don't not the fact that we're doubling the money we're in the company yeah so so whatever we did with the money before was this good and it's still turning because that money that money's still working and it's strong dividend that's on top of brick that's like corporate brick yeah so and we're still crying so So, Cygnus has not... Cygnus has not exhausted the amount of SMEs.

Starting point is 00:48:28 SMEs, we have a problem with SMEs getting funding in Jamaica. In Jamaica. In the Caribbean, generally. So, we're talking about Jamaica. Cool? Yeah. Cygnus has not exhausted that. Because as long as Cygnus has been around, we still have the crying.

Starting point is 00:48:40 And they're looking at the Caribbean. And the Caribbean going through things now where we still have that crying is heavy. So, as far as I'm concerned, doubling this money, we still have deals left on the table where eventually we need more money for it. Sure, the deals will have no way to turn over where we invest that money.

Starting point is 00:48:55 But the way I'm seeing it, the demand for Cedans is not going away, for their product is not going away. And those guys are smart. They find themselves in every lucrative deal everywhere. You remember I used to joke about how yo the marketing is so annoying because every single thing you see happening in the newspaper when it's done arranged by signals signals and we say oh yeah yeah yeah everything arranged by you we use that to the market for when we when we should buy into signals

Starting point is 00:49:21 because yes we spoke on We had a private conversation about Signals at around $9 per share. Yeah. And I tweeted about Signals when it IPO'd. I was laughing at them when it IPO'd

Starting point is 00:49:32 because when they did the... Upsize. The upsize. They took more money and I say, you know, in general terms, guys, that means that you have

Starting point is 00:49:42 kind of gotten less. The dollar value should be lower. So I'm not jumping in there. And I'm happy I didn't then. It's funny because we spoke about it before IPO. I found myself in it. I sold at profit, thankfully. You bought at IPO?

Starting point is 00:49:54 I bought at IPO. Okay. But we were considering going in. I didn't. It would have been early days for you. Yeah. I think I was lazy though. And I said, I don't want to deal with this.

Starting point is 00:50:03 Let's pull the trigger and go. Afterwards, you say, never go in cool whatever i made money but i jumped out as soon as possible because as far as i was concerned if we raise the amount of money we're taking and amount of shares like almost but i bought double then every single valuation i have right now is cut in half roughly but yeah yeah yeah yeah this company was worth to me half what they were selling me at. So to me, I was jumping out of this. When we spoke about it afterwards, it was last year, it was either the end of 2018 or the start of last year, we spoke one side and you mentioned, oh, let's take a look at signals.

Starting point is 00:50:42 I was like, yes, because right now we're looking at how much deals they were doing because we keep saying arrange by signals arrange my signals arrange my signals so numbers are looking a certain way we realize that hey money coming in good now and the numbers drop people aren't moving off of it but we were saying cool time for me time's running here we are and it worked out well managed to buy below ipo price as a result yeah buying from nine dollars all the way up now it's at what 27. i'm still looking like as far as i'm concerned it's so funny i think it is conservatively if it ended the year below 50 or the equivalent of 50 dollars now so i don't know if then the stock splits later on or whatever with the end 2020 i won't say 50 i'm gonna be conservative 27 40 45 the end of the year below 40 i'd be very very

Starting point is 00:51:32 surprised i expect to end the year above that i expect them to have good deals i expect them to find their ways in yeah man i think these guys are so good they're the kind of guys i rate because and i don't know any of them that's the beauty of all these guys i don't i don't know these people yeah so it's not like yours my virgin and i trying to give my virgin a boost i literally don't know these people i've never met very i've never i don't i don't think i've ever been in the same room with him or anything like that i just think they're good because they appear to me to be the kind of guys who can go into a bad deal situation and still make money yeah man they're the guy that can go in between two parties

Starting point is 00:52:06 who are doing something very stupid. And even if those two parties fail, hey, we got paid. We got paid. They're like the JPS of a failing company. Your company failing, but you still have to pay that light bill. Pay that bill. Yeah. So big up Signos.

Starting point is 00:52:19 And you heard a number there. That's us talking about the goods of, the good part of being a bond holder we don't often speak about that about oh yeah yeah but that's true that is true that's a strength of bonds that's a strength of bonds that if you if you um i'm an expense line so yeah you have to keep paying me yeah exactly and and it often means that you are less worried about maybe the day-to-day operations because no matter what i have to pay me which i think do not know because i also don't know kingsley cooper but i i think that might have had some influence in the entire paul situation with

Starting point is 00:52:56 him removing his management line because he had a management line and there's that thing where you know essentially he'd be paid regardless of the performance. But him saying, no, I'm putting my payment through just my ownership through dividends. He's saying better perform. This man is saying, yo, I am putting my stake on profit because he paid the dividends from profit. And he has a bigger stake than everybody else in Pulse. So if him believe it, I believe it. Imagine that, you have a bigger stake than everybody else. And you were getting that secure management line.

Starting point is 00:53:25 Separately, correct. And they say, you know what? Cut that out. We're going to make our money. Everybody is going to eat at this table. Yeah, everybody eats. I like that. You know what I don't think we ever did for Jamtee?

Starting point is 00:53:38 Jamtee currently is at $7.30. So guys, I didn't look at my spreadsheet till just now woo ah that's seven dollar 37 the pe is 12.9 times um in the article we mentioned where mr john jackson was speaking about he did mention that the market is at a PE around 20, rough. And Jamtee's trading at a PE of 10, 11. So, Jamtee's trading at a PE of, oh,

Starting point is 00:54:09 yeah, thereabouts at the time. Yeah. So, imagine that. We're half the market PE and we're trading at, so we're trading at half the market PE.

Starting point is 00:54:17 Mm-hmm. That sounds like undervalued. That is undervalued. Yeah, there's all sorts of things you can do when you have that kind of undervalued situation and you own a heavy amount of the shares,

Starting point is 00:54:26 you know. It gives you a certain level of freedom. Gives you a certain level of freedom. A level of freedom that is very good, I think.

Starting point is 00:54:33 So, what were you saying we didn't do for Jamty? We didn't just give a price because I gave the price for some first signal. Just a price guess. Again,

Starting point is 00:54:40 we're not licensed financial advisors, so we're just guessing here, guys. Educated guess, based on what we know, what we see and project. We saw strong gains from them for the QWI,

Starting point is 00:54:50 for their investment portfolio. So they own QWI. Own QWI. 30-something percent, I think. And they'll be even getting payments. So they get payments from QWI, and they'll be getting a dividend from QWI, if QWI ever pays a dividend,

Starting point is 00:55:04 which I think, based on our prospectus they intend to pay dividends so to me Jamty is not but let's be realistic I think they're going to book a loss very quickly

Starting point is 00:55:19 I think they're going to book a loss this quarter because we're talking Q1 here so Q1 here Q1 so JamT has QWI in it right because of

Starting point is 00:55:29 the way they I think they're booking QWI as a subsidiary

Starting point is 00:55:31 based on the last results with that in the way QWI's NAV which is

Starting point is 00:55:38 the next asset value has fallen from the start of the quarter in September end of September and to the end of December,

Starting point is 00:55:52 the NAV was higher at the end of September than it was at the end of December. Correct. Which to me means after we take the money in the company, we trade, whatever, whatever, the value of the assets have fallen. The assets that hold are equity, is equity in companies listed on the JSE, right? So to me, that is, our portfolio has gone down.

Starting point is 00:56:14 So they book profits and revenue as investment gain. So gain on investments, FVPL. So to me, we have a lost position right now. In other words, the portfolio is down. The portfolio is down. And because of how much money that is, that's billions of dollars. And Jamdee's exposure to that will be up.

Starting point is 00:56:36 We're going to book that last line. They have to book. In other words, they have to book the difference between the value of their portfolio at the start of the quarter and the end of the quarter. So that's a loss to them. And Q2BI is's qbi so much money yeah qbi is so big that it very likely will run jamty into our last position yes yeah which conspiracy theorists out there might say that that might be the reason for jamty pushing a stock split no a possible stock split no because a stock split usually excites the market and shareholders and usually pushes that share price up in fact from the talk of a stock split started starts moving i believe that it has started moving the day after i could

Starting point is 00:57:15 be wrong and i was trying to bring it up no but i think since i think yeah man because jam t they've been bouncing around at six five five six i think it's the first they hit seven first they hit seven dollars in did they break seven when they had qwi and if you are janty sure holy could get it maybe i think so okay so i'll just put they put they hit seven after trading for a long period and five six well yeah when you're looking on the i'm looking on the chart and it's a jump jump it is a hell of a jump by the time that they's a jump jump it is a hell of a jump by the time that they're yeah man it's a hell of a jump right after the the the thing but there's a big move to yeah 5.6 million units traded one day january 8th somebody made a big move in or someone

Starting point is 00:57:58 and also someone definitely somebody made a big move somebody made a big move in somebody made a big move oh but somebody made a big move in and then made a big move out, but somebody made a big move in. And then after that, January 9th, $7. Boom, one day. And after that, January 10th, $7.37. So it's still trending upwards. That's not a stock to take lightly. You want to talk some real talk? You know, we don't usually do this,

Starting point is 00:58:17 but I mean, we can talk. We'll see. It comes out. You guys hearing this on Wednesday, so hopefully then I, any moves that we have to make, we'll hopefully make it before you hear this a loss for this company

Starting point is 00:58:28 I'm actually looking forward to it yes yeah I'm looking forward to it I am looking forward I was thinking of the same thing with Cygnus where we said they made a loss

Starting point is 00:58:37 yeah last year I can just sleep on that company because everybody going to be like oh the PE high because they made a loss whatever yeah

Starting point is 00:58:44 complicated I'll come back when they make money and we'll talk about how much money how much this is worth now so the loss will prove all the naysayers right i hope so and i hope i hope they sell the truth is they won't prove you know but no no that's fine i hope i hope it sells i have a business with them i just hope it's set up they sell i hope they jump out yeah and if they push that opportunity forward you know yeah man i don't mind if the share price drop is that seven dollars or no um with a great pe so if you had before it's not a bad time to buy i would say i wouldn't i would think of it that way um but i would love to see the loss because the loss means it would fall hopefully yeah the share price would

Starting point is 00:59:25 drop and if the share price drop you know who's gonna be buying it up yeah qwi also yeah qwi well obviously you said you the reason so qwi is probably gonna book a loss in nav um qwi has been trading has been trading below itself not book a loss does qwi no like you'll book a loss for the quarter because of how they hold you and how they recognize it. Correct. However, them having a loss doesn't mean that it's a bad company. It does not. But people will think that

Starting point is 00:59:53 and they'll say, you see? You see what the problem is? And it will drop. But the company is still a company. People still going to work every day. People still putting in work. For a whole year, you have a portfolio, right? Say the really good in Q1. Q2, you ended the quarter. You end Q2 less than the position that you're in Q1.

Starting point is 01:00:17 Q2, Q1. So you made a loss in Q2 on your Q1 position, right? You're not back to base. You're not going never lose any money over the six months, but guess what? You made a loss in that quarter. And in your report to yourself, you're writing a report for every quarter

Starting point is 01:00:34 it's an up and down chart. And you say, boy, you know, I made a loss in Q2. We end the year strong, strong, you know. But that one loss position make everybody think, boy, in PE low. don't i don't i believe in expertise at the company they have a strong team managing that they have a strong board yeah it's funny i don't actually i don't often say that i don't i hate to

Starting point is 01:01:03 use it as a gauge of a company. You know what's funny? Yeah, same way. I don't really give a damn about the board. I know what the book says. I give a damn to a level. I give a damn to the point where, okay, but you can still mess up. So guess what? I'm going to take you to the green or south. You're on the board. True. But if you can show me that your value is coming through, then sure. But the thing is, this board and the type of company... There we go.

Starting point is 01:01:26 Actual expertise and proven expertise for QWI, John Jackson, David Stevens, and I don't want... Well, a couple of other names. Yeah, but the thing is,

Starting point is 01:01:36 these are the popular... I use those... Often those are the popular names. People know those names in America. Yeah, but the other... Yeah, so the other guys are strong. Yeah. And years of experience.

Starting point is 01:01:46 I think the problem is the general people that are not in the investment space don't really know them. So that's why. But if you look at the prospectus outlines experience of the board. Strong, strong, strong. So you know that the board is strong. Starwards. And Starwards who have made their name

Starting point is 01:02:02 of multiple things. Not just one thing. Not just one thing just one multiple things yeah yo john jackson troy lifeline to kiw not kiw that thing when i say lifeline and bring it back from the dead yes like completely from nothing it's like oh we're a normal company and you know a bad part we had a lot of shareholders and we're not really doing anything remember that that's true imagine nothing you're in a private company yeah and our property operations are down and you got in when it was public we can't sell like it try contact the registrar okay we're not taking insurance at this point to carry i mean you have to find somebody you want to buy who want to buy what they own our heroes um so ifson can buy the virus no there's other guys and they want a lot of it if you buy from them too it's not

Starting point is 01:02:49 really happening john jackson fine bring money into the company into carolville bring opportunities buy it out turn it around you know how to read john jackson john jackson met me money off uh last year the last year the year before we met money off of siboney consider that anyway that that is pause that's that you can't you can't fault that so yeah um big up john jackson for that again these guys know what they're doing yeah um hazard i guess on a price seven seven something now seven something now p e r 12 but they have a loss coming you know well we think they have a loss i think they have a loss coming so and their and their tea business in the u.s has went through a little stalling so 19 19 in a quarter in a in a march in a march so the results

Starting point is 01:03:40 come out with the last i think oh yay i can't see people pushing that down to around fives you think it might end matching the fives it might just the loss might still scare people the loss will scare people we know a lot of skeptics are there yeah man the loss will scare people you're not getting cash from this there we go so that type of thing so the loss will scare people so you think but but on the flip side a stock split might excite people

Starting point is 01:04:07 might excite people definitely but then depends when the stock split is so if it happens soon and then when are the results I think that's the important thing

Starting point is 01:04:14 results are coming oh soon what's soon it's the Q1 for Jam T so February 15 is when it's due 45 days after the end of the quarter or earlier yeah so february 15 there

Starting point is 01:04:27 february 15 last year they had reported on that february 13 so yeah rough then mid february valentine's day so if they announce it if they're not my girlfriend's hey big up that actually right there keep actually keep your eyes and your ears out guys there might be something for that yo you love getting yourself in trouble with your girlfriend

Starting point is 01:04:49 but so you think four or five it's such a I love exciting things like this to see where it will end because I don't know

Starting point is 01:04:57 if it can end much if they report a loss in the middle of February but they also report the stock so I think they might do the stock split before and apply.

Starting point is 01:05:06 I am thinking, guessing here, stock split announcement officially before. And I don't think the actual stock split time, I just think the news are only going to happen. They need an AGM to do it. I think the AGM is around March. Could be wrong, but I think it's around February or March.

Starting point is 01:05:25 March. If the loss come before the think it's around February or March. March. If the loss come before the stock split, you might have an issue. Or it depends on how these guys are thinking. So if the loss comes before, then it might fall and the stock split might send it up. If the stock split come before,

Starting point is 01:05:37 then it might fly and then it falls. After that stock split. Yeah, it falls. It depends on what they're thinking i don't know but i do i'll give my guess on it seven dollars something now end of march i will give them four hope i'm wrong four four fifty four fifty four fifty i can't see it especially with the amount of shares the liquidity isn't that great right now, which is why we have a stock split.

Starting point is 01:06:05 Which is why we also need to have a stock split, correct. And John Jackson is quoted as saying that in a Loop article, which I need to find. But yeah, we'll say four or five. One more thing. Who else did have anything? So we talked about Signos. We talked about Jamty. We talked about Pulse.

Starting point is 01:06:19 Anything else in the market? IPOs, we'll half touch on it. Or we'll talk IPOs and then we'll wrap this episode. So let me talk before we go to IPOs. We'll talk industry. Big things happen in the industry. Oh, definitely. Everybody coming with something.

Starting point is 01:06:33 Yep. Everybody coming with something. I have a tweet somewhere where I said some time ago, maybe a year or two or three ago where I say, probably last year. Sorry, I said last year.

Starting point is 01:06:44 I still not phase where I say last year. I think in last year i still not phase where i say last year i think in 2018 2019 but i think in 2018 i said something about it could be early 2019 something about like the industry annoys me in how non-innovative it is sometimes somebody do something yeah man we wait for everybody move like the industry move like empire but there is no cartel it's like cartel need to do something and then everybody will start following so you notice rights issue right now really a big deal it's so funny because barita commander rights issue and everybody and him causing right now yeah it's like it's new we've just been around for

Starting point is 01:07:27 Yeah, it's like it's new even though it's been around for what? Hundreds of years? Centuries. Literally centuries. The funny thing to me, we look at the market, we always talk about how much capital the market can absorb at this point. Because there was a free capital floating around. So we look and say, hey there's a lot of space for IPOs. so we look and say hey there's a lot of space for ipos but we don't look and say there's a lot of space for rights issues like because we're calling different things because if you think in terms of value but it's just a product to pull money yeah but if you think about it like listed companies also have cash needs and they can raise cash through the market by issuing more shares everybody always and everybody will school fight now.

Starting point is 01:08:05 Companies have two ways to make money, debt or equity. Equity. And then they tell you equity. Equity is IPO and then it stops right there. It's like, no, it turns out there's more. You can make equity. Equity have a lot more

Starting point is 01:08:16 and debt is debt. We know preference shares because at one point, preference shares were very popular. Preference shares popularized. Speaking of preference shares, we should say this and it speaks to your point where you're correcting me quite correctly about Cygnus.

Starting point is 01:08:29 In the official notice from Cygnus, they don't say rights issues. And they don't really say equity either. They say Cygnus Credit Investments Limited has further advised that the capital raise will be done in various tranches and may take the form of bonds, loans, notes, or preference shares. They mention nothing about equity there. Where are we getting from that there's equity? I'm almost tempted to see what he actually said on Kalila. Let's come to this $35 million U.S us that you guys are planning to raise next year how are you going

Starting point is 01:09:09 to raise that money our intention is to really top both the equity and the debt capital markets we are already far down the wicket in terms of the debt side in terms of we already have commitments and we will close that fundraising by the end of this year. On the equity side we are assessing the possibility of a rights offering and that will be early in the new year. We will advise the market and the shareholders accordingly. You know at the end of the day you, these are essential strategic imperative for signals credit investment in terms of driving growth and shareholder values.

Starting point is 01:09:53 The demand is significant, and we have designed different products which the medium-sized markets really like. And as a consequence, we are seeing the demand. So our rights issued be coming up early next year what's can you say at this time what's the mix between debt and equity that you're gonna be looking at good question the mix is going to be probably about 15 million in debt of the 35 and 20 million

Starting point is 01:10:20 in rights issue at the right time all right you heard it here first listeners stigmas coming to the market with a 20 million US dollar rights issue at the right time all right you heard it here first listeners uh stigmas coming to the market with a 20 million us dollar rights issue early next year somewhere along those lines all right that's your card okay good i mean my right offering rest issue doesn't necessarily mean that it's ordinary shares either true so yeah exactly can be preference shares well no preference shares depend on how you do them and most times how they're done they look like debt yeah yeah but but they're they don't really act like equity because they're not tied to the profits they're private to the debt so the payments of them is second bond but but i think technically they are equity they are equity but it depends how

Starting point is 01:11:00 it all depends on how the company sees them too and however the company deals with it is how you have to book it so if the company deals with it like debt like JMB 7.5 preference year they have to deal with that like debt even though it is equity

Starting point is 01:11:13 because if they don't pay it I think there's a clause in it that causes it to become equity and so oftentimes yeah so just because I'm saying equity

Starting point is 01:11:22 there's options there and use very careful big up berries for that he didn't sell space but they reassessed what's best for the company so yeah so just in case you guys didn't hear what we watch or someone in case i never got the permission what we heard was berriesford on kalila's taking stock where he said exactly what it was that he was thinking um and he he he said that they're considering the possibility of a rights issue early 2020 and they will update the market of it on it when it happens right um i don't know if it well we at this point we still do not update it so it may not you're right it

Starting point is 01:11:59 may not be a right issue they may have just decided not to do it and to his credit they did not he did not say that they're doing a right issue he said they're considering a right issue they may have just decided not to do it and to his credit they did not he did not say that they're doing a right issue he said they're considering a rights issue so it's very important that we get the wording right yeah um and and that's good that's good i like that i hope there's a right issue obviously because the market understands that end of the day more money it's more money yeah and you know what i think it might be a right issue why people want to and what would be the difference why would they choose one of the other right is free essentially they'd have to worry about paying anything else out in the future as opposed to um uh debt there

Starting point is 01:12:35 is where and the company doesn't isn't burdened by offering more strategies we'd have more money in the company continue we don't pay we're not paying out anything further yeah it's just straight so here's hoping that's what it is um big number for that so i don't remember what made us go down that tangent but i just wanted to do the correction because you're right to say that but i also remember that he had actually said the word so it's very interesting i love how q1 looking it's looking very exciting strong um proven proven launch their own my ipo pro my ipo pro yeah so it's an application center for ipo so you go there and apply to ipo i think you can apply to you can apply to the ipo from whether or not they have a proven account. Ah, so they're taking a page out of the book of

Starting point is 01:13:28 NCB. NCB Cap Market who started that with GoIPO. So MyIPO Guys, check the show notes. The link will be in there. We've approved them for doing that. MyIPOPro.com Alright, I'm checking it as I talk to you. I think that spells good for proven.

Starting point is 01:13:46 It should be. It should be. because if you look at it proven i haven't seen red done a lot of ipos but to me that looks like hey maybe we have something on something in the pipeline yo in my view over the last i want to say over the last year in 2019 Proven started coming to their own yeah man Proven started moving this way let's make this money they're moving with the times

Starting point is 01:14:09 they're coming into the market so you have all that the silent broker thing so you have some brokers that you feel like they're not really doing much beyond whatever they're doing

Starting point is 01:14:19 yeah yeah and some of them work quietly privately you know you want to keep your money you want to keep your money but Proven looks like they're really bringing it.

Starting point is 01:14:26 Listed company. So I'm happy it's them because I can benefit from that. Exactly. So to me, it looks like, hey, we're doing a lot of deals. They have a lot of private deals that they buy into companies. So they have, they bought private equity deals. They bought into Dream the other day. They bought their own 5% of JMNB.

Starting point is 01:14:45 No, their own 5% of JMNB. Their own 5% of JMNB or their own 20%? Why did I get this wrong? JMNB is an associate of them. So they have at least 20%. Their own 5% of Sajiko Financial Corporation through JMNB. Correct.

Starting point is 01:15:01 They have the access. Well, they had access well they still own access yeah some of it but yeah so and then now you see where so them doing this to me just it looks good it looks like them stepping now towards the actual ipo market you know i think i saw something from him recently because i think that they're out they also have a thing that increase their right their share boom there we go they just released something to say that they're increasing their share count to do a rights issue. They said it to do a rights issue? You see me running ahead again.

Starting point is 01:15:37 Speculation. Yeah, the speculation pushes you there to think that. You know what I think? It's reason, especially speculation to me. Which is our style. You know, you make is reasonable speculation to me. Which is all I start. You make an educated guess. So when I hear this thought, I know where they're coming from when they say, oh, speculators versus investors, right? Speculators serve a purpose and I don't know when that became a dirty word.

Starting point is 01:15:58 I mean, at some level you're always speculating. No, not at some level. At every level. Just sometimes you can fool yourself. Exactly. always speculating no not at some level every level just sometimes you can fool yourself exactly yeah um sensible investors speculate it's just that you're framing speculation in the point of of this makes sense this is reasonable and this looks like where we're going i'm going to confirm as much as i can cut your risk but to some level you don't at every level you don't know it you

Starting point is 01:16:20 don't know the whole story but you think that's a story or this is where the story this is what the story looks like if you're right enough time then you're a good speculator if you're right enough time you're a rich speculator all right so yeah they're doing that um so that's more money coming to the company to do what i don't know well well yeah those guys don't fool around either with money either they don't sit on it either and like i said for the last year they've been going very very hard in the market

Starting point is 01:16:48 within the finance space locally and regionally so let's see what they come with this year 2020 they have a lot of St. Lucia don't they St. Lucia's banking sector I believe they own a bank in St. Lucia St. Lucia's strong you know in terms of the amount of money that flows through St. Lucia

Starting point is 01:17:04 St. Lucia is tax tax haven a tax haven thank you i wanted the right term because the way they do the taxes out of big big corporate across the world come to saint lucia to domicile there just just so you can say hey i want some tax incentives and if i'm there then my if my banking is there then all the money running through me so the legal legal for law and banking in saint lucia make a lot of money yep so so imagine an investment bank in jamaica owning an investment bank in in saint lucia gold yeah now imagine an investment bank in jamaica approving you as a small startup in in in jamaica also saying we can offer you many bits of financial help including holding some of your assets or maybe even relisting your company re-incorporating your company in saint lucia in order to get a tax benefit and then still listing

Starting point is 01:17:59 it in jamaica which is something that is done and can be done yeah and then now your dividends have no tax and your corporate tax is one percent all sorts of things and can be done yeah and they know your dividends have no tax and your corporate tax is one percent all sorts of things that can be done so bigger proven they're moving different yeah man they're moving what i've seen 2019 is like a different proven to me i never cared about proving before i had it on a company i found very boring yeah until so weekton mayberry popularized the selling agent thing since week on which i've not forgot forgiving them for all now but i understand exactly to me it was why are we doing this everybody's setting a bad precedent i said that yeah what they what they saw was i'm going to

Starting point is 01:18:39 give you a reason i'm going to incentivize you to sell my IPO. Yes. I'm going to pay you for it. NCB and Proven are in a good space right now. So the fact that their IPO application allows you to apply for an IPO while not holding an account there. So if I am a selling agent, say I have a regular IPO, there's no selling agent clause in it, right? Let's say I'm one of the brokers

Starting point is 01:19:09 that don't have one of these facilities. It makes sense for me to have one of those two guys as a selling agent because immediately people can apply through it. And what people want to know what's the point of applying through it? It makes it faster. You find out about your allocations quicker.

Starting point is 01:19:24 You don't have to go wherever that place is to get your application or wait on that letter that you maybe don't get exactly what you can mail back you don't get it exactly a lot of people um we tend to by default forget that kingston isn't jamaica um they're jamaicans all over jamaica jamaicans to this all over and they including outside of Jamaica and this facility allows people who aren't in Jamaica or who aren't in Kingston

Starting point is 01:19:49 streamline the process yeah man you can apply from anywhere yeah yeah and everybody everybody is doing it I like that they're stepping up to the data

Starting point is 01:19:54 NCB was the cartel in this case the cap markets set the trend by pushing out Go IPO and then we saw who followed quickly

Starting point is 01:20:03 I know JMNB JMNB JMN they followed yeah the apo had it the apo yes the money line which i did the fact that everything will just be home here money line i can never stop knocking i can i can never stop singing praises for money line as something that i started out on and it really helped a lot of people started out so yeah big up money line long before anybody else was doing it there in fact in that case jayman b was the cartel because yeah jayman b would have been cartel from when cartel was was was was vibe b vibes cartel part of the group or when he was added a war angel not showing

Starting point is 01:20:42 my age yeah sorry my big even i know that big cartel fan. Even I know that, so you'll find me that. You know when Adi was the war angel? Yeah, so it's funny because, I'm sorry, mom. I was in the cartel

Starting point is 01:20:51 in primary school. I was in the cartel when he was the boss. Like, when he was just that, when he was still carrying cartel, when he was still carrying killer jacket.

Starting point is 01:20:59 Yeah, and I was in primary school for me. Yeah. Oh, they want to feel bad. Oh, they want to feel bad because I remember as he may be in second or third form. Yeah, Oh, they want to feel bad. Oh, they want to feel bad because I remember as in maybe in second or third form.

Starting point is 01:21:07 Yeah, yeah. Adidas, the war angel. Cassette Ninja. Anyway, big up Cassette Ninja. Yeah. It's good to see that the industry changing

Starting point is 01:21:17 from that where it was just JMMB with Moneyline and people ignored it to now where if NCB does go IPO within the same year, people have to come with something like it because we can't allow innovation to pass yo they were the only ones with money line for like

Starting point is 01:21:31 years i want to say over 10 years you know i think when i came we were still people were still asking this broke up this broke up and jc is what i don't think it's six years old i think it's five years old and the thing is remember think of j trader how popular it was before you spoke about it i wasn't when i just went to that group there was nobody on j trader yeah nobody was talking about it i only got on day trader because i work at a place and detroit was part of it and somebody said you can't all right big up leo um he was the he was one of the analysts at the time one analyst and equity trader so he i don't think he was using jitter at the time but he mentioned it to me because he had the luxury of working at the trading desk.

Starting point is 01:22:26 And he just said, you know, there's a web application. That allows you to do the same thing. So he showed me it and I went on JTrader and I came to the group and you guys were like, what is this? What's the point? And then I remember the first, when I actually put money in it

Starting point is 01:22:38 and I post the queue and then you're like. Yeah, the second I saw the queue, I was like, hold on, wait, wait, what's that? We're doing this. The second I can see what everybody else is doing because that's how it worked big up the guys from 876 investor one of them said something to me the other day um it was sending me something that i'd known already and i i'm sorry i don't have him name up him for trying to begin properly but he said it was just information i said oh yeah man it was a proven thing so i said yeah man i saw it

Starting point is 01:23:02 already i'm saying yeah you know what time'm just i gave more information invest um kirk kramer row on kramer row on twitter that guy's on top of him news to him and david isn't in the group but they often send me things very early even sometimes i see them before but i know it's a long time it's long before a lot of the market sees it like they're on top and the research i do behind it in the background i'm not saying anything but they do the research i want to put in research and they want a lot of knowledge i read them yeah man yeah man they're doing a lot of things

Starting point is 01:23:39 they're doing they're doing a lot for young people to get into the investment space i think that's i think that's what they want to look at well they are young people they are young yeah and they really want other young people to get into it they talk about they were on they were on taking stuff at one point and they're on were they tv yeah well i didn't i did not know that big them up for that bigger bigger yeah big up khalil and big up the guys in 876 Invest. They're doing good stuff. The guy I want to big up properly is C-R-L-B underscore. That's Kramer O. Kirk.

Starting point is 01:24:18 Yeah, okay. So he was just sending it to me. The thing I was beginning to say to him was, you know, info can never be too much. And he's 100% right for that. So big him for that info can never be too much you are perfectly correct sir information is what runs this market he sent me a link about the changes to saint lucia's tax system aha i'd read that when it was happening from yes we were because we were we were discussed that yeah but i i need to get back on top of it because i need to understand exactly how it works i think essentially they're trying to manage manager it's international rules

Starting point is 01:24:51 so you'll notice a lot of companies um actually i know the black flag red flag that's going on with the world thing right now yeah yeah nobody wants to be they don't want a tax haven situation yes but i mean they want it but they don't want to be given a hard time by the u.s for it yeah not st lucia i think the world no no tax haven wants to be given a hard time by by the international let me see i said the u.s because that's really what it is but the international financial markets yeah um and so they and so they they're trying to stay in line with their rules and so that means that if you are dumb if you i said domicile domicile domiciled oh god i'm so sorry if you're incorporated in saint lucia yeah there are certain rules that you have to observe

Starting point is 01:25:30 like you have to i think i'm guessing here i think you have to have your meetings there you have to x amount a year somebody has to live there you have to have addressed their all sorts of things but yeah there are changes to know and those who did the digging will know we won't tell you that we won't bore you much on it but yeah proven with their own my ipo online ordering of ipos now so it's great i love the change that's coming to the industry who else who else what else jc jc have a new chairman and a new set of board members the bil the barita guys have now oh yeah yes he resigned the chairman on j JC's board and he resigned. He has also left Barita, I think.

Starting point is 01:26:09 Correct, he has left Barita. And so now the replacements have been, I should get this right, the replacements have been two more Barita people, two of, I would call, the new class of people, the younger people, the people pushing them later on in the financial space very interesting to see a generation yes very very very interesting i took it for granted

Starting point is 01:26:30 as i'm sure my parents went through this when they saw people around them that they grew up around people not far from them age started taking over new talking about business in jamaica ah in jamaica they started treating people they know people that not very much older than them, started sitting in seats. Yes. That were held by old people. Yes. In other words, if you don't know them directly, it's like you know of them or, yo, somebody my age, I can do it too. So growing up in there, you thought, hey, that guy in class beside me is going to be there.

Starting point is 01:27:01 And here they are now. Everybody taking a seat. Everybody have a seat. So try to be there and here they are now everybody taking a seat now everybody have a seat yeah so Jairus try to be a part of that growth for yourself if you're in a field and you want

Starting point is 01:27:10 and you see where you can do well in the field not even I don't think anybody in a field thinking they can't do well or a field they want

Starting point is 01:27:18 to go into and can't do well but just know we're in a generational shift and you can be that person that you looked up to someday some someday you get somebody saying quoting denny and randy hey don't put that kind of pressure on me bro but so i go all right so what what they have is a new

Starting point is 01:27:39 director jason chambers mr jason chambers who is on the board um and he is on the board as of january 10th and his alternate director so the directors have alternate directors his alternate director is mr ramon small ferguson yeah yeah yeah i like that i like that change well i'm i'll say i've been giving jc a hard time and i'll continue to understand improvement but you spoke rightly about the generational shift. These are two young people. These are two people who understand

Starting point is 01:28:09 the change. So I'm hoping to see JC change. Yeah, man. I know JC and I'm a big fan of my biggest fans. I know that they don't like me there.

Starting point is 01:28:16 I've been told persona non grata unofficially there. But so you go. As long as they improve because I can't do it without them. Yeah, definitely. Yeah. So as long as they improve because i can't do it without them yeah definitely yeah so i as long as they improve that's all i want you don't have to love me just improve yeah um i think i think they'll be better off loving you to be honest i think so too but you

Starting point is 01:28:35 know it's we mentioned how you gave jm and b a hard time yeah and if they screw up again i will but jm and b how they handle. And they handled it really well. Really well. Carry on the show talking and give them some real breakdown of what's happening in the company. Ask her, yo. Tell us why. These are the problems. What's going to happen?

Starting point is 01:28:55 And you say, yo, we hear your concerns. We're working with you. Yo, that makes a world of a difference. Even just saying that I hear you, we understand, and it's something we're working on, makes a world of difference. hear you we understand and it's something we're working on makes a world of difference you know because jc's seems i don't know but there's policy seems to be when something goes wrong silence don't say anything yeah i actually know that that's like yeah it's frustrating the whole thing on twitter um i see a lot of people complaining about the or more the whole not speak not mentioning an ipo until very close not mention an ipo going to be listed soon

Starting point is 01:29:26 so this is the day after i listed the day you mention it on that day or right before i don't know to me that i i get other people asking me yo when this ipo go at least whatever i don't know jc knows or they have better information than i do so if i could go on the site and get that sure if i could go on the site and get that sure if i could go on the twitter and get that like the expectation a week in advance that'd be good the response you got on social media when you brought it up you know it's funny i've seen more than one people mention oh yeah i did mention that until until the day of the yeah you mentioned it and whoever is on the social media just came out at you to tell you hey we

Starting point is 01:30:01 did this at this time so let me give them the let me try and be as unemotional as i can and as empirical as i can here objective as i can i said and i'll try and find the tweet and quote it but i said you know guys at this point i'm tired i've been here for years i just tired of them like guys come on it's another ipo happening are you gonna tell us nothing or on the day of the listing that it happened. Yo, I am tweeting from my toilet. Sit down and I'm putting out to people that there's an IPO

Starting point is 01:30:29 happening today or tomorrow before you put it up and it's you have to approve it. Come on, that's slack, right? Then they thought it best

Starting point is 01:30:38 whoever is controlling the account thought it best to correct me that. Oh, with the exception of the recent mail pack listing,

Starting point is 01:30:44 we have been doing it very, very, very. Why in God's name would you say that? Just let of the recent mail pack listing, we have been doing it. Why in God's name would you say that? Just let the improvementor say, yeah, we're working on it or something. And then the one right after that, three days later, them screw it up.

Starting point is 01:30:53 They'll never do it. All know them don't tell me it's a lumber going to lease. It was weird to me. To me, it was... Sorry, not lumber. Select M. Select M. But I operate a social media account.

Starting point is 01:31:05 Right? For a company in Jamaica. Sure. But I operate a social media account. Right? For a company in Jamaica. Sure. And I'm going to take it up to respond to this guy in this... What? I don't understand whoever was writing that. What were they thinking?

Starting point is 01:31:20 You're not the company. You represent the company. What were they thinking? You get me? Why are you upset with Randy, one? Because you're not the company. Two, you represent the company what were they thinking you get me like why are you upset with Randy one because you're not the company two

Starting point is 01:31:27 you represent the company why would you make them look like that that was crazy to me so and and and then you screw up

Starting point is 01:31:34 after that like right at the next one literally the next IPO not even a month or two later the next week it's weird my brother said

Starting point is 01:31:41 I'm on a market I was like what how you reach yeah how you reach and then I was like, what? Like, how you read? Yeah, how you read? How you read? And then I actually went and checked to see if I just missed it. No notice.

Starting point is 01:31:51 No notice, no nothing. And that has been going rough, huh? For them? I think them below a dollar? No, yeah, select M. I think people factor in the expectation of select F. Because of what happened with select F.

Starting point is 01:32:03 So I don't think the takeoff was as great as Select F or Select M but people factored in because it people people so we're thinking

Starting point is 01:32:11 so they're not looking at what the company does they just look at the fact that Select F is an IPO and it performed this way for me so IPO

Starting point is 01:32:19 so the next Select must look that certain way must look the same way but this did do that but this did do that people tell me how they expect QWI to move because Lab did do that. But this did do that. People tell me how they expect QWI to move because Lab did do this.

Starting point is 01:32:27 But it did not work. Yeah, that's not how it worked at all, man. Every IP was different. Look at the company, tell them what the company is doing, what you expect the company to do and work with that.

Starting point is 01:32:37 Yeah. You can't just, oh, this other company did whatever. Like what? Yeah, that's not how it worked at all. At all.

Starting point is 01:32:44 But, you know, I think people learning the hard way the expensive way and the guys if you make some losses in two weeks don't be don't be don't be discouraged the market is not a two-week market as much as you hear dan and i talk about making quick money we do make quick money sometimes we also make slow money yeah yeah if you hear if you hear me you heard my 2019 comments on the companies I was buying into. And most of them, I don't think I mentioned even one, oh, I made this, I probably did, but mentioned, oh, I made this company's money real quick. It was more, okay, I know that this could happen at this end of the quarter or this month that's going to happen.

Starting point is 01:33:19 So I buy in because I got a good deal on it. Yeah, man. It's really looking for, there's value here. Value is coming. I'm buying into the value before it actually happens exactly actually represented or shown in the price yo dark horse gem select m currently is at 98 cents um what's the nav uh you can never tell i don't think the nav or the nav doesn't do they have a nav page yet i don't know if jc have one up here big up jc best biggest best best performing performing stock market in the world for 2019. 2018 it was also that in 2015 i

Starting point is 01:33:57 think and i hope we get it in 2020 also and i hope jc operates in a manner to justify that i'm hoping that those new guys on the board will push it because they're from barita and barita not joking barita is revitalized you see the kind of marketing cornerstone and the man in final new cornerstone on a flight yeah yeah look on barita before and barita now yes look at barita from october 2018 to now January 2020. I remember when Barita, I think it had the highest speed on the market for a good while. It started to turn around a little bit before Cornerstone bought in. But Cornerstone bought in and... Look how it works, right?

Starting point is 01:34:38 ...made some money. So of course we have people here for a long time so we're giving them what they really want, the last part, the good part, the exciting part. And we mentioned Cornerstone and it's good i mentioned burrito that's good and i'll start this part off by saying ipos we'll start with one that's in front of everybody right now at this point people hearing this it has no opened so it is an open thing and i'm going to bet money i'd be very surprised if you're hearing this right now on a wednesday wednesday would be what wednesday january 15th i think that's what it would be what? Wednesday, January 15th? That's what it would be? I might get that wrong.

Starting point is 01:35:06 14th. Yeah, maybe we'll say it's Wednesday, January 15th or 14th. Yeah, Wednesday, January 15th. If you're hearing this on Wednesday, January 15th, 2020, and First Rock is closed, may I say, Randy, you should be surprised. I don't think First Rock is going to close. It's a lot of money. I think they're is going to close. It's a lot of money.

Starting point is 01:35:25 I think they're going to stay open. And I find that companies like this, they want to take as much as they can. Yes, and they want as many people

Starting point is 01:35:32 to join in. So I think even just sensibly you want to leave it open past payday for the smaller people to put their money in and maybe for the bigger people. I'm sure the bigger money

Starting point is 01:35:41 is sorted out privately. I don't expect it to not list i think it's going to be mostly because it upsides everything yeah so first we're coming to market a quick overview very quick overview yeah that there are real estate startup real estate startup but they that they have an interesting structure of an interesting structure and it's reminiscent of signals to me they have a capital capital thing there and yeah and have a management company management company special purpose vehicle yeah so the way we would own the purpose of our people we put money into that company and that company has a special purpose which is to buy

Starting point is 01:36:14 real estate in multiple markets sell develop earn income whatever they're doing the whole real estate route which isn't like so when you heard on khalilah showed they mentioned the that they're taking a certain route to it that is not necessarily we're finding a REIT a REIT generally holds tech income and if i do developments it's to hold that development and then so they can sell they're not really selling but they do sell it but over it's over a long period they don't look at necessarily a shorter term gain in the real estate market first rock says they are they are very open to exploring everything in the real estate space yeah they want to make money in real estate yeah i made a tweet yesterday i'll link the tweet whereas

Starting point is 01:36:59 well i spoke about first rock one of the things i said when i was clarifying it i haven't spoken about first rock at all well you know what to make up david yeah well because david did point out the rights issue so jc knight big up jc knight wherever him is right now i think i think i think he's traveling yo that utah's 2020 was his year boy 2019 man 2019 but 2020 might be his year too i hope so but david so but hell of a start he spent he spent investment money on paying for some school expenses

Starting point is 01:37:29 I hope his investment money is spending on the traveling expenses because that would be the biggest you know flex yeah yeah yeah

Starting point is 01:37:35 spending investment money on a yeah spending investment money on a what would you call it there's a I've forgotten the term but it's a kind of purchase

Starting point is 01:37:43 a frivolous're frivolous, not frivolous, but you know, discretionary spending from investment gains. Nice spend. Yeah, man. Something you make for you.

Starting point is 01:37:52 Your big up my friend, I won't call her name, but she know her name. She buy herself a rotted watch. What ring? She sent me the picture of the ring. She buy herself. It was glistening.

Starting point is 01:38:02 Send it to me on WhatsApp. It was glistening. All from her gains.ening all from her gains all completely from her gains I won't tell you how much but it's not such she could have bought a car

Starting point is 01:38:10 yeah but she's nice she's nice she's nice she's nice I like that it's a big up she knows herself

Starting point is 01:38:17 and I hope to do a whole heap of these big ups every single episode or every single quarter at least yes I have a big up plan for this one oh yeah no give the big up before you want to talk about it all right cool um so so yeah

Starting point is 01:38:31 first rock real estate doing good things in the space doing interesting things in the space you said i have a kind of similar structure to signals in that they're part of a group and different things and different things they do real estate in multiple countries so the us costa rica cayman jamaica for forgetting anywhere else forgive me in jamaica they have some stuff uptown they have some stuff in mobi they won't buy that stuff they bought already that stuff they're planning to buy that's what they're planning to build that stuff they're planning to build and sell yeah man yeah man holy holy money millions of us they need it. It's about what? It's billions of Jamaican, millions of US.

Starting point is 01:39:08 I don't remember the numbers off the top of my head. I did a graph for it. I love that. By the time you're hearing this, I should have put up the charity donation for the gentleman who we give half of the fund. So actually, I think, you know, because it's not going to be half,

Starting point is 01:39:22 I'm going to just put some money on it. I didn't get a lot of people, but I expected not to get a lot of people because of how I did it and when I did it and then I got interrupted so I couldn't push I couldn't push it

Starting point is 01:39:30 the way I wanted to but when I did it was important in that I mean everybody was braffing first session was nice I had a lot of people there I said I'm going to do

Starting point is 01:39:40 a second session forgetting completely not forgetting but you know you got people broke in January still had a nice crowd but I didn't i wanted to break the record i break the record for some other ipos but yeah first we're coming people asking asking how they feel about i made a tweet which i guess stirred the waters because i said yeah i'm not buying it

Starting point is 01:39:56 we need to get past the point in jamaica of thinking that people commenting on a public issue or public facing thing is a bad thing if they're not singing your praises your people who work at places might not even sing your praises yeah sometimes them them deal with your bad and the person at the front is not necessarily the person that you want to have facing you yeah but i can't help but be what i am and what i am is an independent i hate to say but what I am is an independent, I hate to say, but I guess I'm an independent analyst. No, don't, definitely.

Starting point is 01:40:28 Yeah, we speak. And on the show- It's not bad to call yourself an analyst. Yeah, you understand why, yeah. But I am- The conversations, yeah. Exactly. So I'm an independent analyst. I'm looking on it

Starting point is 01:40:36 and I'm not giving people buyer or seller advice, but I'm saying that for me, it's not fitting. It doesn't fit your time, man. It doesn't fit your goals. Good example. Somebody sent me a tweet earlier this morning just to doesn't fit your time and it doesn't fit your goals. Good example. Somebody sent me a tweet earlier this morning just to remind me. We were in a conversation about it last night and they sent me a tweet this morning saying,

Starting point is 01:40:52 yo, you said pretty much the same thing for Cygnus. I was like, yeah. And who is one of the biggest Cygnus proponent fans right now? Me. I was going to say it because earlier in this episode, we spoke about you not going into Cygnus. Yeah, at IPO. And saying good luck to the people

Starting point is 01:41:06 who bought into it at IPO because eh, not for me at this price. I'm sure they're happy now if they held out. Hell yeah. Damn happy now they would have bought at 11.

Starting point is 01:41:14 You know, right before the move I had a friend, she mentioned me. She looked me one side and said, boy, that night she don't know what to do. She's had Signos,

Starting point is 01:41:21 both of them, since IPO. And she's trying to console her she's been trying to console herself with the dividends that come in but you know it don't match up back to what she lost exactly and i'm not an advisor so i can't tell her say i i was saying yo you're going to make a lot of money i didn't tell her that. Yeah. But I think I told her, yeah, man, just go and chill. Yeah, chill.

Starting point is 01:41:46 Go and chill. Just chill. Chill. Take your time. Patience. I know. I was looking at it. I know that money is going to be made for you right now.

Starting point is 01:41:53 Yeah, man. Don't worry about it. Patience. Patience. I say that to people all the time. Patience. Things like that comes from you not understanding what you're buying into.

Starting point is 01:42:01 Yes. Or you're not understanding the timeline that you're looking at. So, First Rock, to me, it's a great opportunity. Because I often complain about REITs. That don't make sense in Jamaica. And the fact that they're

Starting point is 01:42:13 not really taking a REIT approach, to me, it's like, oh, cool. Because the American REIT approach works because you get a tax break in America. You get a tax break. And they consolidate the debt into the mortgage backed securities those type of things help them make money

Starting point is 01:42:30 on both ends in Jamaica there's ways you can make money but not really buy a bar of real estate and sit down and what these guys are doing is essentially if I can run the scene of oversimplifying they're taking people's money and their own money because they've done it before they've

Starting point is 01:42:48 bought some stuff they actually paid out a heavy dividend um to their people and that's a nice point actually i'll pause my own point to say that they have a strong dividend policy a minimum 50 dividend policy right when i see that as like wow these They're not a REIT. REITs often talk about 90% of the payout dividends. 50% and they said we are not a REIT. That's strong. That's strong, yeah. However, we also have to take into consideration the reality of what they're doing. These guys have a hurdle rate, which you can think of as a target of 8%.

Starting point is 01:43:20 8%. Which says to me that what they plan to be doing or where they plan to play they know better they know that real estate plays are long solid plays in the long term

Starting point is 01:43:32 yeah in the next couple of years you can get about 8% a year for like real estate yeah usually I hear 7% on real estate

Starting point is 01:43:39 at a point where business is fully established exactly you don't usually hear we're looking for 8% from the very start of the company. Exactly.

Starting point is 01:43:48 To me, it's not ready for my money. But if you think, hey, I have the time. If you have the heavy money. Heavy money. Let's talk straight. A pension play.

Starting point is 01:43:58 Yeah, it's like a pension play. Correct. Get conservative. Yes. Boy, the thing that I ran into about where I make money fast for me i don't have the time i don't have the headspace boom then there's an option for you right here yeah i'm not necessarily what that i'm really looking for so it's not always what

Starting point is 01:44:15 we're talking about means your goal your goal is not always aligned with ours yeah and it would be weird if it did even you and i don't have aligned goals in some things yeah that's not me yeah other things i was like yeah i can do this i guarantee you then whatever yeah it's just yeah it's cool i work for me i don't like him like i don't like i don't like it but people want to almost think of it like it's a um you know it's a must play i must do it i must like it that's not what's happening the thing about'll talk straight what's what's working for you what you want to do with the money there we go what you want from your money and then conceptualize what time period you get the money and you're good there you go i keep that class every month grow where i include i include people in that nice conversation where we teach each other very

Starting point is 01:45:05 small group very intimate and we go through the basics of investing for regular people who don't know nothing people who hate numbers right it's a six hour class i can't do that on this podcast i won't make the podcast that long um however if you go to that class you learn that you look for what value matters to you yes if you're somebody who put in a quick money into first rock a popper you know what you call a popper you're looking for the ipo pop you might be disappointed yeah you might very or you could be surprised yes yeah you could be surprised you could be disappointed yeah i am so excited about it yeah i'm definitely not buying but i'm definitely watching i'll be watching and saying oh and yeah that's a point of that's a lesson for me you know what I'm saying? Oh, and that's a point of, that's a lesson for me, no? Yeah. Cause Cygnus is,

Starting point is 01:45:45 as you said the same way, I didn't buy, it fell. And when it fell, I was like, whoa, wow, that's funny and all.

Starting point is 01:45:51 So it's now in an area where I think it's where you're at correctly, but I might jump in. But at IP, I'm just not going to buy it. I don't think, I personally don't think it's worth my money. He's looking for a drop. He expects it to fall.

Starting point is 01:46:03 And when it starts falling, that's a nice one. That's when you buy. Think about it like fall and when you start falling that's a nice that's when you buy think about it like this though like the fact that people panic when ipos fall and then they sell like hell sell sell panic sell panic sell panic so think about it like this i thought it was a good buy that's on no new information so i thought it was a good buy i was gonna process those and i said at ten dollar i'm buying this thing I thought it was a good buy. I looked at the prospectus and I said,

Starting point is 01:46:23 at $10, I'm buying this thing. It falls. There's no information about the company that's out there. And I'm getting it for $9.

Starting point is 01:46:35 And I have some money. Boom. It's $8, but I still have some money. Unless the timeline change or the information about the company change why not buy it to be honest literally right and they were so clear on timelines as they said timelines are so clear on timelines in the in the um prospectus i went through that process

Starting point is 01:46:55 because i had to do the class i had to grow ipo class and i gave like i say we give that money to charity um and give half of the proceeds that i to charity but we'll give more this time um good all right guys so just in case there was a rough bump just here we just had a quick edit because my laptop was dying um but yeah i know we're on first rock i hope we're not repeating ourselves here just make sure it fits your timeline your goals and then that's all investing is does this make sense in the time i want my money to do whatever exactly then you do it in my view first rock you know in two years in 2022 i'm giving them three two three well here's the thing they have those two rights issues they have a 2020 they have a 2020 rights issue for this year very interesting and then they have a 2022 rights issue 2021 rights issue

Starting point is 01:47:41 apologies 2021 rights issue plan that's what they say in their projection so you know it could change they give themselves a space to change um and i think those might be able to drive some value to them and a lot of their construction product projects are expected to end in 2020 so come on stream at the end of 2020 at the end of like december 2020 you know for our fourth quarter 2020 and so i think 2021 you'll see a lot of income coming in units being sold so on and so forth and then 2020 more construction obviously happening in 2022 you're now seeing the construction the unit sold rental is really going anything that had going good so i think in two years it might be strong barita did and the second thing i need to

Starting point is 01:48:22 give barita some props for i did it online also is that they had a date and growth expected growth amount in their analysis for first yeah yeah they actually gave them a two years 17 percent um indicated from the analysis that they had done now in the event that their analysis is correct or even let's say conservative 17 in two years on heavy money is great yeah if you put a hundred million dollars of your save or your life savings or your family money into first rock and you get the insurance money that's two yeah and you got 17 in two years on a hundred million that's 17 million million right 17 million in in um two years is a nice paycheck and you still own that you still own the shares it's not like them dead yeah it's just

Starting point is 01:49:13 and they have the dividend policy so they pay out at least 50 percent of their profits every quarter you know yeah per year every quarter so barita believes that first rock will meet the hurdle the hurdle rate eight percent 17 percent in two years is a compound growth of eight percent a year but i mean i think their 17 percent was based you remember the actual statement the exact statement i don't remember the actual statement yeah i think you might want it before people say you don't know what you're talking about that night. I think their exact statement was that they had run, I don't think it's DCF. I don't think they said what they did.

Starting point is 01:49:50 That'd be an interesting DCF to me. Every DCF is interesting. No, because what's the cash flow you're talking about? Well, I mean, the cash flow coming first from the IPO, they must list, you know, we know that. Because their minimum for listing is like 150. We've been on DC like 150 two years in time okay okay that's what you're saying that's what you're saying uh let me look let me make sure i

Starting point is 01:50:15 don't get it wrong i just i won't quote the exact line um and this is from barita they said we conducted a valuation exercise on the shares of first rock which yielded an average fair value estimate of us 14 cents or to be more accurate they go 0.1406 cents right with a valuation range between 1206 cents and 15.1 0.1206 and 0.1551 i'm reading the exact numbers here and they say that this is implying a potential capital gain of 17.15 percent over a two-year horizon so they're saying there's a potential capital gain of 17.15 percent over two years and of course this depends on the company being able to actually do what they say they wanted to do and getting the results that they said they want to result they get so you're thinking that okay they're going to beat that eight percent right um okay i mean i yeah i

Starting point is 01:51:17 believe in them right other things in the prospectus that came out to me was just the big the heavy line first rock is is nice because first rock is a group is first rock that we're getting is first rock capital holdings limited right and first rock capital holdings limited is owned owns three subsidiaries doing two which in three countries through which they do the business of all this real estate right jamaica costa rica cayman right but first rock capital holdings is and us sorry and first our Capital Holdings is... And US. And US, sorry. And first Rock Capital Holdings is... Sorry, St. Lucia, Cayman. Let me not get it wrong.

Starting point is 01:51:51 St. Lucia, Cayman, US. US. The St. Lucia... I don't know the details, but I think the St. Lucia thing is going to... Is what can... And Costa Rica also. Yeah, I think...

Starting point is 01:52:03 I think they have they have yeah they do have something in costa rica no they do have a company in costa rica so you see yeah sorry guys i don't have it in front of me so i'm guessing right what i have in front of me is a barita thing i didn't go through it um i didn't go through it in front of this uh point here is the point i'm trying to make is the saint lucia as we spoke about gives them a nice tax haven in the caribbean and they can do stuff from that. But First Rock Capital Holdings is actually incorporated in St. Lucia and it's managed by a management company, which is in Jamaica, which is where the founder and CEO, I think, Ryan Reed, he's one of the co-founders because the other one is Dr. Michael Banbury. because the other one is Dr. Michael Banbury.

Starting point is 01:52:47 They, I think, are affiliated with the management company, which is going to be paid against the performance of Bursa Capital Holdings, which is nice. I think that's a reason why some people think that they're Well, let's say that in the prospectus. The management company. Let's say it. They wouldn't find the founders if they're not. Yeah, yeah, yeah. But I'm always very careful about when you say founders because two companies have

Starting point is 01:53:08 very similar names I don't get it wrong but yeah they obviously have stakes in there I see what Baruta used a term that is skin in the game that they both care about the company they both benefit from the shares and the movement of the company but that management company eats 2% of whatever I think their fees are not management company eats 2% of whatever.

Starting point is 01:53:25 I think their fees are not expected to pass 2%, they say in the prospectus, of the, is it the comprehensive income? No, I think it's, isn't it not net asset value? The 2% and the 25% hurdle rate is on the comprehensive income. The hurdle rate. I have to check. Yeah, I remember the hurdle rate is not,

Starting point is 01:53:42 so the hurdle rate is 8 remember the hurdle rate is not so the hurdle rate is eight percent and and their payment is if you pass eight percent you get 25 percent of anything above the eight percent so that's an inch on a comprehensive income ah eight percent and say that again so it's the comprehensive income they get and comprehensive income includes the raise in property values so pretty much if a man buy an empty piece of land and put a house on it the property value should go up which is good which is true and they have a couple of pieces of land in many countries that they're putting stuff on or they're also buying into in other words i think these guys have put themselves in a nice space where the company has the greatest potential to grow they're going to do work and once they do

Starting point is 01:54:21 the work they're also going to likely be paid for that work that they've done through the management line so they get it as a fee in fact if you look at their own projections they're they're um they're expecting one of the top expenses to be the payment of their own management company it's funny that they actually said that people don't like to say i'm going to cut i'm going to try but the thing is don't, I don't mind incentive fees from the point of view that I'm going, whoever, whoever has an incentive, I'm going to work

Starting point is 01:54:50 so I can deliver on that incentive. Yeah, man. And I, you need to make this money. And I, I respect that. In fact,

Starting point is 01:54:56 they're named, they're, they're planned expenses from 2022 to 2024. And the biggest one in every single year, I believe, I could be wrong. I believe the biggest one in every single year i believe i could be wrong i believe the biggest one in every single year is the management fee that goes to first rock whatever the management

Starting point is 01:55:11 company is that that is i think is actually in jamaica um so they're going to pay themselves well assuming that they do heavy work right and i'm with you on that i don't mind if they do that i said the same thing when um qw i was listening that hey these guys gave themselves an industry standard meaning international industry standard rate as their as their benchmark to beat and they've given themselves because just because it's simple don't mean that it's easy it's easy exactly right just because it's so first off sounds simple you know you might take some money buy some land develop something sell and rent at airbnb all right't want to be paying anybody to do that. All right.

Starting point is 01:55:46 If it was easy, everybody would be doing it. Exactly. Yes, I like what they're doing. But on the flip side, I like what you said. They're very open. Management fee is going to be 629, almost 630,000 US dollars in 2020 if they do what they say they're going to do. And then it goes above a million in 2021. Again, all projections

Starting point is 01:56:05 their projections from the prospectus and it continues like that 1.04 mil 1.08 mil 1.12 mil 1.163 mil assume they do what they need to do and those guys are going to eat well if they do this but on the flip side if they do this they're going to be making a lot of money because the expected net profit is supposed to be 2.7 mil all of these figures are us and i'm talking 2020 right now and is every year after that so 2021 4.9 mil 2022 7.4 mil 2023 8.05 or 8.1 and 2024 8.7 call it 7.9 or call it 8.8 in terms of net profit before the dividend

Starting point is 01:56:47 and taxation right and they say they plan to pay out a heavy dividend yeah I kind of think they set themselves up to make some money

Starting point is 01:56:53 but you're not going to hear me argue for somebody setting themselves up to make good money on the flip side we have to understand that as a public company

Starting point is 01:57:01 and showing your numbers you open yourself up for discussion I'm happy about what they're doing I want them to disrupt i like when disruption hits industries because the consumers also consumers benefit yeah man he spoke on kalila's program about and this is ryan reed about um kalila questioning him about you know do you worry about an oversupply of apartments especially in kingston and he says let's start with jamaica which is where the bulk of the money is to be invested.

Starting point is 01:57:26 Some of the things that you're looking at are Kingston Sticks, Golden Triangle area. There are some people who say that this luxury apartment thing is just oversaturated. There's too many, people can't even afford them, it doesn't make sense. But you're going after that same market. No, no, so let me just offer clarity. We are seeing an oversupply of apartments. But let me be very clear, that oversupply that we're seeing is not in the absence of demand. So there is considerable demand. So then it's not an oversupply. No, there is. What is happening is the most a lot of developers, I should say,

Starting point is 01:58:06 are not adjusting their prices to meet that demand. So persons are willing to buy apartments. But given the state of what the market is, they are willing to hold out on price and even hold off on even selling these units to get the price they want. We're not taking that approach at all. At this point in time, we're not interested in developing or doing developments within the apartment space. We are interested only in townhouses where residential is concerned.

Starting point is 01:58:34 You had an interesting answer to it to say that, you know, there is an oversupply, but it's in the face of demand. And I'm paraphrasing here. I don't know Ryan really. I've never met him either. Or I don't know. I don't know anybody affiliated to that. But what he said was very interesting that he said that it's in the face of demand. But what's happening is that a lot of people are going higher and they're going luxury.

Starting point is 01:58:54 And this is speaking, I think, just to Kingston. The thing is... But no, I want to finish his statement. I don't want to get it halfway because he made a good point that it's an oversupply in the face of demand because these guys are doing expensive apartments. And what they're doing is that they would rather hold out on price rather than drop and meet where the demand is because the truth is you know lots of lots of apartments

Starting point is 01:59:14 in kingston lots of people want apartments in kingston but we can't necessarily afford we being the regular jamaicans can't necessarily afford a luxury apartment so he said that it says to me that he has an idea of what's happening in the in the um real estate space and you know how you go for a company if a company exists and it's their profit model and they have to make profits it means to me that they may very well say okay guys based on what's happening there and we see where the demand is maybe we see some money to be made in the lower market meaning the cheaper market maybe these guys can come with some 20 mil apartments

Starting point is 01:59:46 or some 10, 15 mil small apartments to do the re-re-re. If they can pull profit on that and they can push it, I can tell you anything that's good below 20 million in Kingston

Starting point is 01:59:54 is going to fly. The interesting thing about Kingston, it's not more expensive to build a building in Kingston than it is to build in Trelawny.

Starting point is 02:00:04 Yeah. Not noticeably. It's probably, no, no, I Trelawny. Yeah. Not noticeably. No, no. I build the same building. But not noticeably. You think gas and prices, but yeah. It's probably more expensive

Starting point is 02:00:12 to build in Trelawny. Likely. Possibly. Yeah. Because of the traveling and the moving and other stuff. Kingston will be higher than the price in Trelawny.

Starting point is 02:00:19 Because real estate is all about location, location, location. So you have a location premium. Big up Miss Jilly. So the thing is, first off, location, location. So you have a location premium. Big up, Miss Jilly. So the thing is, first off, you might very well know that this is speculation, pro-speculation.

Starting point is 02:00:31 They might very well know that if I build the same apartment, the apartment costs 500,000 to build. Me and you ran the across the road apartment and first off over here, the apartment. Same apartment. But you charge 20 million and I charge 15, 10. I make profit profit i'm selling

Starting point is 02:00:46 way faster than you and yours might still be waiting yeah so i like that i like that he i made my point to say that i like that he's aware of the market and it hints to me that they could at any given point because they're developers also yeah they're doing everything in the space so at any given point they could start developing something to catch that heavy market order i'm excited about that and he did mention that they're looking to do townhouses so not necessarily the apartment model ah yeah making townhouses which is they're meeting the market where it is exactly but it's still not for me yeah yeah and i put my money into this at ipo i don't know if he's in my head but i do recall him mentioning that he also in in the face of demand, it was contextual demand.

Starting point is 02:01:29 He said that even though Danai can't buy the building there, there is a buy-off. Of course. It doesn't happen with Danai. So a pension fund or whatever we'll be buying. So he knows that I can't build an expensive place. As the builder, it is sold out so i'm fine i'm not the second person to buy it and then sell it back there we go i build it we have a big fund buy it up it's not on my hands anymore just make some profit and i'm gone

Starting point is 02:01:55 and you know those things like i said you can't sell it such an interesting thing right if you look on their own um prospectus when they talk about some of the things that are coming like they talk they spoke about the land that are coming like they talk they spoke about the land at salisbury avenue it's a development you're not really there yet right the construction is going on and is expected to be finished by the fourth quarter of 2020 right so between i guess between october and december 2020 but they also know that they're planning to buy two of the apartments and three of the townhouses. That means that you could drive by Salisbury in July and go,

Starting point is 02:02:30 boy, apartment will go up again. Who will buy them? It's already sold. Yeah, because First Rock bought it. Now the question is, will somebody buy from First Rock? Maybe. They probably have their people lined up to a lot of the properties they have in here. They said that they already have some of them under lease agreements.

Starting point is 02:02:44 Some of them already lined up. They even have... Very... Go ahead they already have some of them on the lease agreements some of them already lined up to even have very they go ahead they have a revenue share they have a model that's remind reminds me of thing they're guaranteed rental on i think the place in costa rica so they spoke with the managers and how they're going to do it is that even if nobody is there you're going to still guarantee me x amount of income that's something similar to like a 138 sl has right same time like that's some money yeah yeah which might also be a die cards for q1 yeah very interesting very very very interesting uh what else so that's first rock like the company won't be buying not expecting a huge pop from it um but if it ever falls down to a nice place i want't see it fall

Starting point is 02:03:26 yeah or on the flip side maybe don't drop but when these things start coming on stream if the price stays stable i might jump in who knows yeah exactly that i didn't buy i didn't buy signals at ipo i started buying it at nine dollars and it's now at 27 and i still buy it at 27 right yeah so yeah that's what it is and yeah it's a new it's a new space it's a new market people are going to comment on it you're a public company that's what happens all the time definitely yeah uh what other ipos you know about your your employer i think had a slip i'm not sure what it was and And so don't speak to it officially. Yeah, obviously. I saw a thing on Twitter. But we did see the,

Starting point is 02:04:08 which one was it? Was it Caribbean Assurance Brokers? I believe was the thing that was showing on it. Now I know Caribbean Assurance Brokers were on the list because I saw a couple of newspaper articles that link on the show notes. They've been mentioning the one.

Starting point is 02:04:18 Yes. And they have selected their lead broker from a long time ago. Way back. Exactly. And so now, we are looking on... There's some screenshots

Starting point is 02:04:28 posted on Twitter. Yeah. Well, I saw it myself. If you actually go on Mayberry's site, you saw them gearing up. That means they're also gearing up for my IPO kind of thing

Starting point is 02:04:39 or a Go IPO sort of thing where you apply like that. So yeah, I don't know what's happening inside Mayberry. And guys, believe this or not, believe this or not, I actually don then i a lot of those things because i don't need to know i wouldn't be his friend yeah he wouldn't be because i'd be putting him i'd put him in trouble and i don't need to i like i like seeing it when it happened and i like being able i actually

Starting point is 02:04:57 respect that i don't get a lot of from people so i know you don't because you understand because i get asked you work at a public company yeah you understand that hey i can't speak about this yep and i respect so far these don't have not asked me much about mayberry they don't ask me unless like a product something they want to get don't they want to ask for the margin they want to ask the minimum investment yeah ask me those but they don't ask me i'm not going to talk about that internal stuff if i have a friend that this that thinks hey we need to talk about internal stuff about a company that i have information on like my friend you want me this is jail work there we go i don't ramp with that one at all that's not me i'm in compliance i know yeah yeah i'm a cartel fan but i'm not that kind of cartel i'm not i'm not going to jail bro i can't

Starting point is 02:05:40 do that that's not for me and you don't need to. But to the point, Cab, Cabin Insurance Brokers, we saw it. It looks like it's coming soon, but we don't actually know. It was shut down quickly. I think it was just a glitch. You know, I built it.

Starting point is 02:05:51 Yeah. You mention it. And then people go crazy. Yeah. We saw that list going around. Oh yeah. What a list. We compared a list.

Starting point is 02:06:00 From, you know what? I never asked him if I could big him up. He knows himself. Yeah. He listens to the podcast also. So he will message me and tell him if i could big him up him know himself yeah he listens to the podcast also so he will message me and tell me if i can big him up on the podcast for it but

Starting point is 02:06:10 we've always done it and i always had a list tracking and one day he was back years ago and as in the group from i think 2016 2017 and him say yo let's put it all together and so he did listen so we all compiled and i think he has obviously has kept it going updated yeah man he has kept it updated anything we hear in the papers any any public information on any list a possible listing is in play yeah then we update on the list and two twos and you can say so i think there are some people some we had since the group has had some new people joining we join and maybe somebody i think somebody shared it with somebody. It's a known thing we don't really share group information

Starting point is 02:06:46 because we don't know where it's going or who will take it or what. We don't know under what basis somebody is sharing something with us. So we very much say do not share any information that you should not be sharing.

Starting point is 02:06:58 Very much so, yeah. This is a, although it's private, it's still a public forum. Other people in the group do not share stuff you're not supposed to be sharing. Cool then we have a case where maybe i want to buy into something and i don't want to it's like randy come to me with a play and then i go on to it

Starting point is 02:07:14 and say oh everybody go buy this yeah bro yeah we wonder that so that's what happened so we don't we don't really share group info the group is open if you feel the requirements you can always come into the group but just don't go out spreading far and wide what people want to talk about people are talking about in the group yes anybody can join us don't do that cool so that somebody shared a group shared that list from the group but at least came up very recently somebody said something and then we mentioned a list and showed them, hey, these are the IPOs that we've seen possible so far. And that person shared it with another friend. And then it started going far and wide. Jeez, you wept.

Starting point is 02:07:53 I see it all the time. I see it on the internet. What's annoying me now is that people keep asking me, what about this? What do you think about Transjamaica? What do you think about Transjamaica, Danai? Oh, my Lord. I think Transjamaica what do you think about trans jamaica oh my lord i think trans

Starting point is 02:08:05 jamaica has a highway that's as much as i know really big up big up buoy big up buoy and big up ncb who who is the lead lead um broker for trans jamaica i'm sure it's coming soon because i said that last year and i believe the the minister of finance sir carpet gotpenter got himself, Nigel Clark said that he's looking for it early 2020. And it was supposed to happen late 2019. So we know common sense is close. Yeah, yeah, yeah. You hear it here. So cool, cool.

Starting point is 02:08:36 But how much time we turn on pushback? Exactly. That's how the idea was. And because we know it must be big money. Yo, that could be an explanation for like First Rock. Again, we don't know this to be true.

Starting point is 02:08:45 This is again deep speculation. Literally just me joking. Not joking, but thinking. If you know you're going to go for big money and you know the government

Starting point is 02:08:54 is also going to put something out there that's big money. Maybe you want to get in ahead of the government. So maybe that's why First Rock announced so early and had it out there

Starting point is 02:09:01 to sensitize people and plan to have it open so long because they want to soak up that money and when trying to maker list although i think there's enough money for both there's enough money for both i believe um yeah so we'll we'll see how that go but transfer maker is the one coming and yeah people respect the list that list as you know here guys that's where it originated the person who actually did the first bit of writing he's also on twitter so him see too um everybody was in the list has been in the list for the past two or did the first bit of writing. He's also on Twitter. So him, C2. Everybody who was in the list

Starting point is 02:09:25 or has been in the list for the past two or, in the group for the past two or three years know exactly where that list came from. And it's not a known list, right? Meaning that we don't know for sure. It's speculation. It's updated all the time. I saw some very interesting things on that list.

Starting point is 02:09:40 Since, because I have, guys, I'm not in the group. Believe it or not, I'm not in the group. So when I saw, I haven't seen that list in a while. I have my own list and I haven't seen that list in a while i have my own list and i've seen that list in a while i saw some very interesting things on it but we'll see if maybe i'll put the list in the show notes um yeah but it's interesting on people instagram story yeah and everybody asking oh lord brethren call me from the broker he doesn't work at the broker

Starting point is 02:10:07 he was at the broker so the broker was asking him what he thinks about Demir and he said you see how far the list has gone you see how far the list has gone the list has really gone far but the truth is you'd expect the broker to know this

Starting point is 02:10:22 but that's how far it has gotten so the list really touched a whole heap of people people are commenting as people saying like hey this is here for ipo guys look on this list of ips that are coming out this year yeah lord god that's not what it is at all it's like guessing it's weird that you got this list in a context that like second you're a second hand person you don't know where this came from somebody gave you this list and you speak on it like that like facts that's like the definition of fake news people that hey this is oh god these are the planned ipos for the year i know this oh god go forward yes no bro it no works out at least there we go there we go there we go so yeah

Starting point is 02:11:01 i don't know what the whole people are commenting on that this was announced. So we know about CAB, CAB and Assurance Brokers, who we hope will come with something great. Depending on how I feel, I might just put the picture in there because there

Starting point is 02:11:14 was a lot of information in terms of what they're planning to list or whatever, but we don't actually know if that's true. It might have just been a market test,

Starting point is 02:11:21 meaning it's an internal system that I think a glitch allowed us to see. So that means that the numbers in it are correct, right? Imagine if you did see, imagine if you did see Go IPO before NCB drop it. And them had something there saying.

Starting point is 02:11:35 That'd be funny, you know, if they were testing something. Yeah, they're literally just testing something. So the numbers in there aren't real. So we don't, just like how people looking on that list and don't know where it come from. And there's multiple companies on the list.

Starting point is 02:11:45 So you don't know if it's true or not. Are you speaking as if it's true? Same way we see a screenshot from a glitch. We don't know what the programmer is doing. You don't know what's happening. The programmer probably just put in some numbers. When I use the program, you use random information all the time.

Starting point is 02:11:55 So it's a careful way of speaking. Please, please don't speak of it as fact. But what we do know is that Cab has said they're coming to market and they'd like to come to market soon. We know TransJamaica is coming soon. I don't know about trans jamaica i don't know about cab ajas has said they're coming soon too and that's uh what you know what ajas stands for um some aviation and not uh but we'll find out when the prospectus comes right which is the answer for everything

Starting point is 02:12:20 that is not out in the market yet so currently we have one prospectus in the market is first rock everything else we have to see when the prospectus drops we don't really know until the prospectus drops we have an idea you might think oh this sounds good but you never ever know dream entertainment seems like they're going to list this year maybe in q1 but again we don't know that is a proven thing i proved those data here i'm proven moving wicked from the from last year was that's a young proof of moving wicked from the from last year uh yeah yeah good ipos q1 that's what i think we're looking forward to i don't know if there's anything else you say you have somebody you want big up who you want oh yeah so um so big up the context was that uh speaking about my returns for 2019 because i did a whole year long almost a year long Twitter commentary

Starting point is 02:13:06 on me beating my salary not very often I mention my return so like some point in the year I mentioned that I was up X percent

Starting point is 02:13:17 that I wanted to just give an update to the thing there people have asked me so I never really thought to do it more than so but then I remember

Starting point is 02:13:24 I was asking in the group, how do you guys, how everybody does for the thing there? How's everybody's portfolio looking? How's everybody's portfolio look for the end of the year? And so, yeah. So, first of all, Randy, you want to give your portfolio return? Sure.

Starting point is 02:13:41 2019, I worked it out. This could be incorrect. Well, I know this is not correct, but I know it's correct in that it's not lower than this. It's higher than this. You're asking my money to team up. No, it means that I can't. My portfolio gain for 2019

Starting point is 02:13:58 67.8%. Wow. Not triple digits. 67% on a billion dollars. You're funny. 67.8 percent is my portfolio gain for 2019 so that's from january 1 2019 to december 31st 2019 so you beat the market by about i double what yeah double plus more the double plus the market overall for 2019 was 31 percent yeah so i did beat the market double the market yeah it's a good thing a lot of people in the group i didn't i didn't find much that said the underperforming

Starting point is 02:14:31 market so every almost everybody beat the 31 percent i haven't heard probably one or two people said but they're asking more it's new or i just had a bad year because of what they invested in as a hell to it and they're in a lesson as always it's always a far-looking thing true if you did if you did badly on something, just learn from it. Yeah. Know why whatever it did didn't meet your goals

Starting point is 02:14:49 or whatever and then adjust. Cool. So, yeah. So, I had a really great year. Me talking about beating my salary, I remember I did say

Starting point is 02:14:58 that my portfolio started at half my salary. So, I would have to have at least 200% gains to beat the salary. So I would have to have at least 200% gains to beat the salary. So my return, total return, squeezed out a bit of it,

Starting point is 02:15:13 squeezed out a bit of returns in the last part of the year. I got 267% total gain on the board. Blood pipe. Heavy. Heavy. The money.

Starting point is 02:15:21 You hype yourself up. The issue now is beating that next year. Yeah, well, that's a good problem. When the money grows, it's harder to beat. The percentage. Yeah, it's harder to beat the percentages for your poor. You can console yourself knowing that if you don't beat it,

Starting point is 02:15:38 if you make like half a return, you did make good money on new money. So your money grow and you compound and you say actually you're probably making more money than you did last year but not necessarily the same return percentage wise.

Starting point is 02:15:49 Yeah, exactly. But the big up I want to give is my, so I have a very close friend. We got her into investing and she started after me. Top striker. She started joining the group.

Starting point is 02:15:58 Actually, I really wanted her on the friends of the podcast show but she was overseas. Overseas. Braffing. Shani is a good dude,'t it the fact that when we're looking for people to go my my friend for years and all my closest

Starting point is 02:16:14 friends for years i didn't grow up once i don't say you want me on podcast she's like oh randy just asked me what hot girl shanice or randy sniping my friends. Yeah, my style. That was Shanice's bad. I respect her. I hate her a lot. Shanice, like, she doubts herself too much, I tell her. I've always told her that.

Starting point is 02:16:32 She and the next one who has done it, if I can name all now. But yeah, yeah, yeah. She and the next one, they've always doubted themselves and they're better than everybody. And so,

Starting point is 02:16:39 she actually beat my returns. The next liar one. She beat your returns. Yeah. Wow, guys. I've said it a holy place here and people asking if i see us what it i've said every single time i only know one person i think is better at this thing i mean it might be than i and she beat you she beat me that you know some

Starting point is 02:16:53 bossy call her but i want that i'd love if everybody is better than me then i'd have more people to learn from so you made how much last year 267 percent and how much did she make by nine percent she got nine percentage points six percent oh wow so you got 267 imagine me you know asking the group or say oh we don't even get with podcasts at that book yeah yeah um how much did you guys make and then this girl come to him so she beat me I can't go back again in the group wow that's a major move 276%

Starting point is 02:17:29 276% and then she fly go foreign fly go foreign yo big up Shanice what's her username or she don't want to exaggeration

Starting point is 02:17:37 I don't know I don't know if she wants it but Shanice she good man big up Shanice but yeah ah yeah

Starting point is 02:17:44 I put it in the show notes but yo bigger shanice for that i hope you guys had as good at 2019 i hope you're looking on the 2020 to be the same so we we're not doing um i saw last year i saw simon or simon guru in training yeah big up simon guru in training i saw him underscore well he's he'll be in he'll be in the show notes but i saw him put out um something he was talking about with stocks in like blah blah blah and as you hear that's something that i care about right i'm not just here for the mindless talking put out something that people can see and he put out a list of yeah he's watching for the air and he did last year i don't know if he followed it up

Starting point is 02:18:26 with like mapping it but i had a file with his stocks in there a couple of people who mentioned socks after them and them the pics that they made and see how it did and my own of course but what's important is he did it again for 2020 stocks is watched for 2020 and he has five he's listed um and that's good and i see a couple of people following it and he's doing that and i'm glad for that i'm glad that's where we get into where people are following up their picks and met those bets and follow up the bets i mention it because well i haven't done something like that and that's because it's not my style that's not what i'm doing yeah that's not what i'll do however and and we approach market quarter by quarter you know yeah but out there when you have less money

Starting point is 02:18:59 i live a quarter at a time yeah exactly when you have less money you must work harder say it all the time it is a hundred percent true so i got quarter by quarters for this quarter we mentioned what it is i would like i always ask that i know what i'm like for the year over the rest of the year every day i guess we'll start that tradition we'll talk about what you like for the rest of the quarter we did two bets but i'll give you what you think about a quarter pick two things i did mention wicton two things i did mention wicton ah did you wicton you're ready to mention that publicly sir that was good amount the way wicton set up right now you don't care it's very hard for that to move uh it is very hard for wicton to move yeah it is very it takes a lot for wicton to move uh wicton i think i know this i don't know know I should love it because it's straight cash

Starting point is 02:19:46 I mean I think by now a lot of the naysayers of Wigtown have quieted down oh yeah I don't hear them much yeah

Starting point is 02:19:52 and I think it's obvious that people here's why I say Wigtown it's a branch of JPS yeah if you admit that everybody have used JPS then you have to admit

Starting point is 02:20:01 that everybody have used Wigtown and Wigtown is a part of JPS that don't need to import oil. Boom, story done. We will not stop using Wigton. All right, now of course, the problem that people are worried about is that, you know,

Starting point is 02:20:14 those turbines in the first farm might be going down now, ray, ray, ray, ray, ray. Let's see what happens. I don't know. But what I do know is that right now, there is such a demand for electricity in Jamaica that we have gotten back to where I was in the 90s where we used to have rolling blackouts every now and then so now jps has some more stuff on stream and i'm sure they'll

Starting point is 02:20:32 have more stuff coming on stream but wigton i can't say we can't open that bag they can't they literally cannot they they're the only person allowed to sell too so they literally have to sell to jps because wigton has mentioned in the reports that they want to sell too. So they literally have to sell to JPS to have a contract. Which is funny because Wicton has mentioned in their reports that they want to go to the, they move away from the single customer model.

Starting point is 02:20:51 But what they go about doing that is up to speculation to be honest. Well, you can do some. You've already done it on the podcast before. You can do legal speculation.

Starting point is 02:20:58 I mean, as much as they want to move away from the single, the single seller model, the single buyer model. They can't necessarily. They legally can't. They don't write the laws.

Starting point is 02:21:04 That's what I'm saying. They have to move, they have to move away from the current business model they They can't necessarily. They legally can't. They don't write the laws. That's what I'm saying. They have to move away from the current business model they have to do that. So they can't necessarily go and put up something on your yard. Exactly.

Starting point is 02:21:12 They can't sell. They have to sell to the grid. The grid is owned by JPS or selling to the grid is selling to JPS. Yes, the law prohibits them from selling to electricity. The law prohibits

Starting point is 02:21:22 every single person in Jamaica who doesn't have a license from selling to anyone other than JPS. JPS. Yeah. In fact, it's actually illegal for you to allow... I could be wrong on this. I'm not a lawyer.

Starting point is 02:21:36 But I think it's illegal to put a wire across a property line carrying electricity and sell for that. You can't sell your neighbor electricity. You can't sell your neighbor electricity. Yeah. That's actually illegal. the speculation we've done before was they can only either go to another market or come with a different product different product so they can say sell wind turbines to people ah so like a lease model you can stop getting the lease model they do a lease model for expensive so put a wind turbine

Starting point is 02:22:05 in your house and then it's not yours but you lease it and just make sure the rate is lower than when you pay the ad bill every year and you're good.

Starting point is 02:22:13 Yeah, and remember for some people, for some companies especially like that, you know, we saw like Megamark guy

Starting point is 02:22:18 doing some big farm and huge thousands of acres. You don't necessarily want to have to JPS out the whole of that, right? Yeah, if somebody can come and give you a good wind turbine model

Starting point is 02:22:27 and you have a lease, a flat rate, a back and forth, whatever the agreement is between both of you. But you have some ownership in there. But as long as it represents revenue for Wigton, I'm good with that. They can also move it from wind, which they have always said that they're considering. I'm probably going to do it.

Starting point is 02:22:42 Wind is only in two major places in jamaica a few major places is where they are now in in saint elizabeth um there is this place up in i believe the hills of portland that gets strong wind also and maybe something else up in blue or maybe the blue mountain parts in is in portland yeah then rest of them is offshore in terms of major places where there's consistent constant wind that's where they are and of course it takes a lot to build there the sun however is everywhere sun is everywhere yeah i make um uh bridging your bridging my bridging i guess nigel ah yeah oh bridging yeah yeah but i'm not meaning bridging i don't know you're meaning chinese i didn't want to steal it i didn't want to oh my bridging My virgin Nigel is like, oh, you know this brother I've got long before you. It's fine. No, but yeah, Nigel's a good virgin.

Starting point is 02:23:28 Nigel did mention Germany. Germany is almost 100% solar. Yeah. And have 10% of the sunshine that Jamaica does. Wow. And Germany's a manufacturing powerhouse. We're sleeping. Yeah, we are sleeping.

Starting point is 02:23:41 So we have a lot of space for growth. But yeah,on right now as the business model is they're still good to me because when i get the debt restructure that they had they've cut it in such a way that you just made them profitable yes immediately made them profitable um profits doubling and yeah and demand has gone up demand has gone up look on the thing there so and they're still earning in u.s dollars but paying debt in jamaican dollars perfect and they ended still earning in US dollars but paying debt in Jamaican dollars perfect and they ended last year the quarter last year which is the quarter we're in now

Starting point is 02:24:10 so January to March that quarter they had a loss in under quarter so you know we view losses like when things come back it was very different on the books so if you're sleeping on Wigtown then Q1 Wigtown they're currently at what? 97 cents

Starting point is 02:24:26 How much do you think they'll end the quarter at? End the quarter at? Yeah So the results wouldn't be coming until after the quarter You know how it go But it's a good buy in now To be honest But it might end the quarter

Starting point is 02:24:42 But results are coming in this quarter however So the results are coming in this quarter however so the results are coming in this quarter are for when are for last year when there's a quarter in december december okay and we're going to have our next quarter of hey guys the debt was low ah well every quarter the debt every quarter so to me and look it's about cash for it's so innovation is not a problem to them right now yeah and they have that over a billion dollars cash yeah they have nice ownership yes that is true so we bought into our company completely because the government sold it

Starting point is 02:25:18 completely so we no no we the jamaican people own that company fully. And they have a billion and no money from IPO. 5.5 billion that IPO made for the government. For the government, but their debt has reduced. They reduced, exactly. Wicton's debt has reduced. So they can do a lot with that. It's a good deal. I think I made the comment that in a few years,

Starting point is 02:25:41 Wicton will be a major, major thing, and people will see where its power is, and it can be the major part of something even bigger. Q1, I think they'll break a dollar in this quarter. I think they'll break

Starting point is 02:25:54 and stay above a dollar in this quarter. I would like them to stay above a dollar because I thought it was going to happen last quarter, probably the quarter before that.

Starting point is 02:26:01 Well, they broke a dollar and came back down. And then they fell when that recommendation went out that they're not that great they fell and they to 80 something cents and they came all the way back up to 19 or that 97 cents i think i'll be concerned but the dollar is such a psychological number in jamaica and it's such a hard stock to move because there's so many units but i'm interested in continuing to see the ownership ownership change i know they did the

Starting point is 02:26:25 newspaper mentioned that mayberry and vm had taken large positions because they're thinking long term i think yeah so i want i want to see what they look like the ownership looks like no if mayberry and vm are the only ones taking heavy positions that'd be very weird to me it to me if you have big money yeah it's a stupid move to not make that move you know in terms of ownership ownership because only 10 percent of this job are almost 10 percent of it sure but you have cash rich that's dividends and then where we want to grow and we're soaking up demand and we can't even take all right yeah that's a major thing so we can see next pick next pick next pick next pick um i'll give one while you're looking one up q1 dark horse for q1

Starting point is 02:27:13 am i being too eager saying this i might say it burrito burrito yeah my dark horse pick barry i don't want to say it i'm not telling people why but i don't know if i'm ready to share it yet but i'll say that i think burrito is a dark horse pick for q1 because i think they might surprise us with something i think they have to make money so yeah yeah yo because of what they did last year and now we have a lot of cash and they need to make money i won't take time for replaying it but i spoke to that night privately i tell him say yo for the nerds out there who know what a rocket jump is um cornerstone i guess i'll put it on paul simpson bigger paul simpson cornerstone rocket jumped burrito i rate that so much financially and i guess on a future episode i'll explain what i mean there a rocket jump is a major

Starting point is 02:27:59 move to make is a bad man movie if you're playing one of those old games one of those like first it's in the new games it's in the new games yeah it's been around forever but it's a good move to make and i see a parallel between rocket jump and burrito that's that's all i said i'll call it my dark horse pick um i'll stick to my own rules they are currently worth 71.49 cents per share shot in the dark i think they will end the quarter over 80 dollars per share and probably closer if not above 100 but but again that's just me blind speculation shot in the dark let's see what happens just start the quarter just starts i'm making that bet on it right so we'll see how this look much better at the end of the quarter for some reason my mind i'm jumping

Starting point is 02:28:42 at the quarter done ah i get you i get my mind, I'm jumping to the quarter done. Ah, I get you. I get you. I get you. I think it's because the earnings season is coming up. Well, this earnings season is going to be great. I mean, it's the earnings season there, guys. We're not just talking about podcasts. We're talking about the actual earnings season.

Starting point is 02:28:54 The thing that the show is named after. So the show is named after that period in time where most of the companies on the exchange have to report their earnings. Report their earnings, yeah. So they usually report their earnings 45 to 60 days after the close of the last quarter. So the last quarter ended December 31st. This quarter's earning season is going to be around Valentine's Day, the middle of February.

Starting point is 02:29:14 And since there are a lot of companies reporting their full year at that time, it's going to run from the middle of February to about, let's say the middle of March. Yeah, from the middle of February to the middle of March. So that's a 45 to 60 day. Yeah, it's the end of the year, no? middle of february to the middle of march so that's a 45 to 60 day yeah for some for some people so it's going to be very interesting um you have your second one second one is depends it have results coming out so number lumber

Starting point is 02:29:39 lumber ipo fly and drop back right now right nowar is at 152 per share the ipo at 130 and the pe is that would be 13.94 times it's crazy to me again the average market pe the average pe on the jc is 26.3 so like when you have companies like jam t with a huge investment gain yeah low p yeah i can see that i understand why people try it you know yeah to talk around it yeah lomba lomba is just selling they're selling lomba and we have a history of selling yeah strong we're growing lomba is a growing company l Lumba was the, I wouldn't say was the growing part of BluePaw because BluePaw was-

Starting point is 02:30:27 Yeah, it was heavy revenue for BluePaw. It was heavy revenue and it was profitable. Profitable. And it's growing. And Lumba sells in the construction industry and they block up the road, big up that same person again.

Starting point is 02:30:36 He know himself. They block up the road all the time going out popping. That means the people pack it every day. Lumba, that's a good pick. Yeah. So I'm not seeing, but you know, I don't see and i don't see then complain so when the time is right yeah you will speak i will speak and i will buy

Starting point is 02:30:53 you're the man 2020 plans let's talk let's talk more bricks um lumba like that yeah let's talk more lumber. All right. 152. Guess a price, Danai. What's your... Give me that 2. It's not 2.4. 2.4? Way above.

Starting point is 02:31:14 You think he'll do that? I don't think so. All right. Give me that 2,000. Because I was saying 2.4 based on the doubling off of the IPO. And I can see where results drop on people. Wait, wait, wait wait wait oh let me just revisit my money in that one and start buying back up straight up i like that um

Starting point is 02:31:31 hmm lumba lumba lumba lumba lumba like i'm with you there i need to give you second one then q1 q1 dark horse not dark horse i'll give you Dark Horse. I'll give you the second one. In the meantime, I'll tell you guys a joke I told the night before Saturday recording. Not a joke. It's just something funny that I laughed at. Big up man like Tyrone Wilson. Tyrone, I am actually currently profitable

Starting point is 02:31:57 on iCreate. Because I did stick to my promise. I did buy some iCreate shares. And I still think iCreate has a long way to go, but I think Tyrone is doing what it takes to go along that long way with them, yeah? Man not paying attention to the noise. Man just putting in the work quietly,

Starting point is 02:32:12 quickly and quietly. So as of today, each iCreate share is worth 73 cents. So I am currently up on them. I am in profit, 1.2% profit on them, which is better than anybody who bought at IPO. But that's how it go, guys. I've said it before, I keep saying it. When it comes to stocks, I'm in profit 1.2 percent profit which is better than anybody who bought at ipo but that's how it go guys when i've said it before i keep saying it when it come to stocks i'm a wagonist i'll be out before i'll be out before it go bad and i'll be in before it get

Starting point is 02:32:33 really good yeah i'm gonna i'm gonna be there so i create is it's not a pick it's not a pick i just like that while i was looking at my other one uh dark horse pick i'm so well yeah let me not let me not try and go too hard prove them it's almost unfair yeah because i mean they're gonna have the rights issue i'm going to have the profit coming in from jmnb who's going to have the profit coming from sagicore financial jmnb i mean yeah but yeah yeah yeah jmnb is a good is a good is a good look um yeah those are easy let me let me say non-financial because the finance is always so easy. End of the quarter.

Starting point is 02:33:10 Here's the problem. Mailpacks say that they're going to report their numbers in 60 days. That puts them end of February. I think they had a good end of year. 60 days puts them... Are they going to release Q4 numbers? Their Q4 is going to be released in 60 days,

Starting point is 02:33:23 but 60 days puts us to the end of February. That's still Q1. Meaning their year end is December 31st, 2019. And so if they have to release their numbers within, or did they say 45? No, man. So the fourth quarter numbers. What have they said?

Starting point is 02:33:41 45 and 90. So they're going to drop the number in 45 great so right at the 45 or less 45 days so we're gonna get the unaudited fourth quarter numbers middle of february they're currently each mail pack share is currently worth two dollars and seven cents and a p e p e on that is 25 at two dollars i think they're gonna bring that down to 20 or below with their profit i think they're going to have a nice profit yeah i think we're gonna have a nice profit i see them ending the quarter three dollars and ten cents or more yeah three dollars and ten cents or more so you can hold me to that so match we see what's up um but i'm not going to say that that's my pick either i need to

Starting point is 02:34:29 give you guys a good pick this is so much pressure so you keep giving yourself new picks yeah that's exactly it but i like that pressure builds diamonds pressure builds pipe that's exactly it but like that pressure builds diamonds that is also true uh i don't want to do something i was going to say lab but i don't say that because that's too that's too easy the lab will continue to make money that's that's what the lab is good at doing you got me sick a bit what she said on lab last time what did you say about the lab last time about the q4 being strong about the q4 being strong yes she's the only person who noticed that yeah their q4 was almost 10 times stronger than their q their q4 the year before and they're about to report their q1 yeah big up the lab big up kimala bennett anyway um yeah that's my lab that's that's that's my that's my pick that's my lab it's both um yeah the lab is my pick for the inner q1 i don't want to give a price thing i don't know if i if i just leave it in yeah but i like to stick to my rules right that's the problem with the

Starting point is 02:35:29 rules boom i'm gonna do it jamaica producers oh yeah there we go that's my second pick 26 dollars and 31 cents right now with a pe of 24.68 times um i expect them to end Q1 meaning March 31st 2020 above $32 you know I think people will discover that when Nusinko gives another quarter of strong new revenue and strong new profit they're going to rediscover it

Starting point is 02:35:59 again when nothing was going on and I think it was twitter thought i mean people just buy it up and we think it has fallen right back down but the things that they've done are about to come to fruition it's started already one quarter what 30 percent 50 percent um new profit and new revenue yeah and we think it's not like an investment company. Wissinko is a we sell things to people. We're a distribution, marketing, and manufacturing company. Yeah, big up Mr. Mafood.

Starting point is 02:36:31 Yep. Yeah, Williams Wissinko. Big him up anywhere he is right now. I like that. Wissinko is a good pick too. Matches the JP. You're right. Yeah.

Starting point is 02:36:38 Put a price on it now. Price on it? Yeah, it's currently $21.19. 30. End of the quarter. end of the quarter if people really not if sir no i'm gonna make a proper make a proper make a proper a proper price price guess so the guess is not on thing there so i know profits are coming in strong but pe is what PE at their current price of $21.19 is 23.82 times. I imagine a new one more quarter of 50% up profit. We're not down to 18 or so.

Starting point is 02:37:15 But once the profit hits, it's going to fly. I don't think people are comfortable buying at a 20 PE. But they were before on nothing. They bought at 30 odd on nothing. Exactly, on nothing. Yeah, and that's the strength that we're seeing, and it is strong, yeah? So let's see what they come with. Strong company will do more strong growth.

Starting point is 02:37:33 The man them own the rum company before Christmas, you know. And they will not stop. So they've dropped the Styrofoam, but that was 1 billion revenue. Man them brush that were like nothing. Exactly. Light. They must replace the revenue billion revenue out of a bunch of exactly. Light. Then let's replace the revenue quickly through the rum and through everything else.

Starting point is 02:37:49 And the expense of brush it like Clark's dirt. We bought it and say that thing they've done but we have a lot more things in the place for it. Yeah. Because we have

Starting point is 02:37:57 a warehouse space now we're not storing that. We have distribution space coming out. Say my love let's take on an exhibition deal that way they've been doing

Starting point is 02:38:04 before it. equity and distribution and they're looking overseas heavily yep heavily heavily heavily big up for Simcoe again yeah but you don't give a number yet

Starting point is 02:38:12 in a night so I gave 30 yeah 30 flat in a quarter in a quarter 18 no not 30 give me 20

Starting point is 02:38:19 26 all right all right remember that number so I had said I had said for um jamaica producers which is now 26 and 31 cents 31 dollars is my in a quarter number not a big jump either really in terms of dollar figure funny story that is 17.8 percent growth between now and march you remember barita's guess on first records for two years 17.7 percent in two years let's see if i get it wrong i get two years worth of first rock

Starting point is 02:38:52 according to barita's analysis and guess because it's both guesses but the number yeah and so that's why i like to look quarter by quarter because you never know you can only spend a 17 somewhere right uh you're with cinco you say what's your target number 26 26 and i think it's i think it's worth way more but you know the thing yeah it's not about what's worth and then oh we're gonna discover it when the profit come there we go the strong profits are already there there we go it's not it's not what it's worth it's what people are actually buying it for yeah that's the difference between price and value and that's understanding value we should do a nice episode on price and value you know but yeah i will give you your percentage so if you said 26 and it is currently at 21 and 19 you are looking on 22.7 percent gain not bad let's see how you go all right guys i hope you

Starting point is 02:39:44 guys like that one um i hope there was enough in there for you to absorb i hope it wasn't too long i hope you enjoyed it that was earning season look out for us every wednesday at 11 59 pm or earlier um and yeah hope you enjoyed leave the comments online subscribe subscribe subscribe guys if you listen to this on soundcloud it's perfectly fine to get yourself a podcasting app just click when you see the tweet come out say it out click any one of them something the way you say one in either Google podcast or Apple podcasts or any there are millions of them as well cast box all kind of podcast players just subscribe like it leave the comments you

Starting point is 02:40:21 can comment on Twitter you can send us emails at earnings at every Michael dot-com hope you enjoyed hope to bring a whole heap of value to this year and comments. You can comment on Twitter. You can send us emails at earnings at evermickel.com. Hope you enjoyed. Hope we bring a whole heap of value to you this year and let's look what happens. Look out for it next week. I'm Randy at RTRO. And I'm Danai at H Danai. And this has been Earnings Season. Thank you guys. Alright guys, thanks. Thank you.

Earnings Season - 23 - Skin in the Game: First Quarter Stock Watch

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