Earnings Season - Earnings Season: Episode 14 - Half Tangents (Part 1 of 2)

Episode Date: November 14, 2019

Electricity went out while the guys were about to record this episode (JPS and load shedding, looks like $WIG.ja definitely has increased demand from JPS to fill in the future 🤔). While wa...iting on the electricity to return, they started talking and when the power came back, they just hit record and continued speaking. The conversation went pretty long (over 3 hours), so they decided to split the this one over 2 episodes. This is Part 1. They cover a bunch of companies, their internals, how they feel about them, their possible biases and a whole lot more. No guest this week, just gems. Give it a listen and leave a 5 star review if you liked it. ★ Support this podcast ★

Transcript
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Starting point is 00:00:00 hi guys welcome to episode 14 of earning season i'm randy rowe at rt heroes you guys know so this episode dana and i sat down really and had a long chat i'll give you the backstories that we were we were recording the episode we're both record episode i should say jps of course did what it has been doing recently and like went away i know so we decided you know let's just talk we're having a chat eventually like maybe hours later like came back and we just kept recording a conversation went great i liked it i think that i liked it also but like many of these things happen sometimes you know you're talking to your friend it went long like really long now i'm on record as saying that i really don't care if it's too long the podcast lasts as long as it lasts. I just want the quality to be good.
Starting point is 00:00:47 However, even I had to be daunted by this. Like, I don't know if I want to give people this long episode. I mean, it was over three hours. Lots of gems, but some people might find it boring. I think the people really like it. You know, the real fans of the podcast might actually like it. But just to be safe and not to take anybody out of them way too long Anybody complain, anybody sit down and go, oh my God So we decided that we're going to split it in two
Starting point is 00:01:07 So you get part one this week of what I'm calling, I guess A second long chit chat with Danai Or maybe, you know, better yet I'll call it, it's the half earning season Because we did touch on a couple of companies We did go through a couple of financials We looked on stuff and the conversation was pretty current So this is called it half earning season with you know that i and i uh like i said we're dropping first part this week and then you'll see us drop the second part and it was the part so it'll be
Starting point is 00:01:36 pretty clear and i'll come in then also to get just have you guys know that's the second part of the conversation that happened that week so enjoy part one of the half earning season episode 14 of earning season hope you guys enjoy this listening so yeah why I said it well I said I want to say financial but that's a lie I just made a lot of money out of Mayberry and Mayberry MJE last. So because of it, I think of it that way. But that's not really it for me. I've made money across a widespread anyway. So to say that, that's probably because
Starting point is 00:02:14 it was really great and it was probably, it was very recent. So I think of it like that. But to be honest, that was not the case for me. So I found it hard to find, to actually get up and say,
Starting point is 00:02:25 what do I inherently understand? Or whatever. Which is just, oh, I know not the case for me. So I found it hard to actually get up and say, what do I inherently understand? I know this, I know that. I don't know. He's a really good person. What's a biased company? Finding the bias is really good. We're recording?
Starting point is 00:02:42 We're good? Finding the bias is really good because we're recording and we're good I can always cut this in find a bias is really good because either you find where you shouldn't be where you are only in this
Starting point is 00:02:51 because I like it and I understand it and I feel and because I understand I see the potential for profit so when the potential is there
Starting point is 00:02:59 but the management acting on it so you're not really getting the money out like that or it's really good where you say or it's really good where you say or it's really good
Starting point is 00:03:07 in the sense that you get up and you say oh the pudding is right there it's happening I can jump on it easier than everybody else because you see it
Starting point is 00:03:17 but I'm not sure what my bias is I think that's where I'm young in this if anything I don't have a widespread I've looked at but then i haven't looked at the whole market yes never all right you look at the whole market way more than me as i'm going to get myself in trouble and say that maybe we just don't have maybe we just don't have all right the question is do we
Starting point is 00:03:44 what's a bias company so it's a company that you like and you're in and you buy towards the sector the sector so whenever something it happened you're you're ready so if there was a company ipo in there there's a greater chance of you missing something important that might be bad because you like the sector so much that you know what what is the sector which company is that i don't know it's such a good question i don't want to say i don't have one yeah i know and that's why i'm giving myself that's i'm giving myself the leeway to say maybe it's because i haven't been here long enough or 36 the longer in something the more test cases you have for it so
Starting point is 00:04:23 you can say but i have a wide i have a a widespread of companies i've made money in across many sectors if i was in here it wasn't here long enough then i could probably test myself more to say oh this is where i i gravitate towards more general troubleshooting yeah yeah which and you see that you see that same general troubleshooting is probably why i want to say I don't have the bias for industry because I approach every company in the same way. Yeah, exactly. And that's... Our method is...
Starting point is 00:04:54 Well, if you don't understand it, it don't make sense. So you have to understand it beyond us. I feel this way about it. Yeah. You aim to understand everything on the same level.
Starting point is 00:05:04 Let me... Let's use the time and start the podcast hi guys it's earning season i'm at rt row randy row and i'm danai at h danai and as you hear we've been coming in as we've been coming in for a couple episodes mid conversation um then i had asked me a question we're talking about something else before we start the recording and then i had asked me what was the question tonight uh what's your bias company because i saw a company or sector because i saw ryan big up five so they are twitter customary show every week yeah but i saw him say something about manufacturing and manufacturing being his his bias area what he likes because that's like his street spot that's his zone because he
Starting point is 00:05:46 understands the company is really well there so and he's he's seen where he's invested in them and made good money out of them based on his understanding of them and i think that understanding has spread i don't want to speak for him well he'll tell us next episode next episode is on but um he because i know like in the overseas market, also he pays heavy attention to, yeah, I don't know. He's also, he chose a wide net. I don't pay heavy. He was calling Nike long before.
Starting point is 00:06:13 Yeah, he has a wide net. Yeah, he was calling Nike when people weren't even taking it serious. I think that the other run is done for Nike, right? There's nothing coming back. And Nike, no, I think from his calling is, Jamaica level percentage increases on u.s stocks that's what i that's what that's my experience with ryan over there i understand business i understand companies yeah so it's funny for me to hear he said that that he says that
Starting point is 00:06:34 i think that's why i took it seriously yeah but locally locally i know he's heavy on on manufacturing and distribution i think yeah i know he knows distribution anybody else said it I don't think I'll take it as seriously as if he had somebody it's a ran say to us somebody to me that ran is bastard at a parona believe oh yeah probably I know of them but what based on I know I think you hear speak on a wider range so yeah but I saw it going in in Weston right you know it is I remember I said something, I think the very first episode that we put up with David, I'd said something like that,
Starting point is 00:07:11 that that's one of those things in investing that you just, you start learning so much about so many different things. Yeah. Anybody who started paying attention to the stock market in the first week that you actually taking it serious like looking technically something you trade about literally just looking on the you don't even realize I'm out of you things information from a wide you know I hear is also uninformed opinions about a lot of things are wearing the things on on Twitter or people's talking a lot of things or a wide range of things on on twitter or people's talking a lot of times in my
Starting point is 00:07:46 head because of where my position in the market or where i look at the market i said to myself why are you each day these guys are investing you know because they'll probably wouldn't think like this yeah it does shift a lot of how you you think about things you approach everything from a position of i know nothing let me start from that and let me understand from scratch. People come growing and say,
Starting point is 00:08:09 you start, I talk about starting from the look of a company. Looking at a company as somebody who knows nothing about the company. You start from step one. I won't get into
Starting point is 00:08:17 all the steps there, but step one, which is a key step, all of them key, is know what a company does for money. Not what they say they do, not what they think key is know what a company does for money. Not what I'm saying though. Not what you think I'm doing.
Starting point is 00:08:28 What I'm actually doing for money. And then I always use, I need to get a new example. Oh, I use a great example. What does Grace do for money? I've even done it on a podcast. I think Grace is the best example because the perception is so large.
Starting point is 00:08:40 Yeah. And then the reality. And that would be our pizza that we ordered before we started. Let's talk after the pizza yeah we were saying we're saying that I was saying that one of the things you have to do just point to start from is to know what a company actually does for money not what I'm saying though what people think them do what everyone in North said him know what I'm actually do for money so and I always give the same example which I have I know no I
Starting point is 00:09:03 have given on the podcast yeah the grace and it's not graceful it's actually grace that so the thing in grace that makes money it's not graceful it's money yeah it's not wow that's a mistake they're not they're western union versus companies western western union which is they're doing things with no there's a recent put out that they're doing online orders for amazon yeah yeah so i saw that yeah you saw we had a bit of a conversation about it where i said it really attacks the unbanked when you know jamaica or what every heavily everything that's in the financial sector wants to attack the unbanked. Because that's how you broaden your universe. And with a huge percentage of Jamaica's
Starting point is 00:09:48 is unbanked. So what that does is, basically I was looking at it and I said, a lot of people don't have a bank account, but they use Western Union. And that really cuts across the space. So you don't have to go through the bank to get a card so you can shop on Amazon
Starting point is 00:10:09 no you can just look on Amazon and you can use Western Union to buy through buy goods, buy anything you want those people are already exposed to Amazon they have those American TV bodies on the internet everybody know what's up I mean you've seen the lines outside of ship me there's circles there's rocket ship JA there's all of them
Starting point is 00:10:30 they're doing stuff there's mail pack who is now going to listen but look at downtown downtown's culture is we have a lot of street vending and a lot of people are selling clothes online
Starting point is 00:10:44 clothes that they buy online and you know a lot of it is selling clothes online because they buy online and you know a lot of it is all you know somebody online abroad and I'm sending it for them a lot of people that do informal vending they don't actually have bank accounts yeah I saw a lot of we know even working in financial sector you see people like when they finally come to open an account they've been operating for years but they had no incentive unless an ipo come or i didn't find somebody showed them the light say yo banking really helps you so a lot of them don't have bank accounts but i'm sure i thought i used western union yeah and imagine now i can get my goods that I want to sell on the street from Amazon because
Starting point is 00:11:29 Western Union facilitates it. So there are a lot of niches that Western Union, that implementation will pick up. So that's really good for them, but that's a tangent. That's fine. Yeah. But the original point was- Yeah. So the biases. so if you if you had
Starting point is 00:11:47 if you had a i don't want to drop it on you i really want to think it through without hearing anybody i think i have a poor i think as i said before i don't think i have recognized my bias in that aspect i know my bias is outside of them outside my biases that don't that don't lie within specific sectors so you know those type of things that i will look for or you know everybody can find the biases i find what you do or what you like that will lead you into a narrow mindset around things so you acknowledge your biases you have to know where you're falling don't understand yourself so you can invest better that's 100 because the best place you can invest from is logic and no bias yeah yeah the the bass is dangerous because it blinds you
Starting point is 00:12:40 but then i feel like a responsible a responsible response to that is to admit that maybe you just don't have a bias in terms of a biased industry. Maybe you don't. Because I honestly don't think I do, but I'm looking to see which industry do I really like. You've been in heavily. Yeah. I like companies more than I like industries. And if I like industries, it's because I like what a lot of the companies in the industry are doing at what they are any given time so it's more like the companies yeah and of course some industries
Starting point is 00:13:11 are nice to be and i just yeah honestly i don't think what i'm calling official industry is finance finance you know a lot of our market is the finance industry so if you like the finance industry if you like a lot of companies in the finance industry then we see that you have a bias in the finance industry or you just like you find yourself there because you're doing well yeah so for me what i'm thinking of i want to answer your question as honestly as possible it's not biased in terms of what my portfolio is weighted in it's not i don't think i buy with a bias i look at my portfolio as soon as i have it open but i already know what the money is and where the money is it's spread well enough it It's spread well enough. It's diversified well enough.
Starting point is 00:13:46 But... Wow. But it's not... It's not... Like, I don't feel a joy when I hear a certain kind of company listing. I was like, yeah, that's my kind of thing. I don't know another bank listing.
Starting point is 00:14:01 A couple of banks are not listed. CIBC is not listed. Are they? No, they aren't listed anybody on the market owner's taking them not enough they're buying they're selling a huge stake right now to to the to the south american people conglomerate yeah yeah somebody else making move within the region isn't that funny right right now the caribbean market is really is really going well i think what's happening in the caribbean if i have it right i could be wrong it's they call the de-risking so the northern north american companies and i think maybe some european companies have decided based on their own tables and the one things that they're looking at that they're they're removing the risk of caribbean for some reason who knows it could be maybe some impending ifrs change like five years
Starting point is 00:14:51 10 years on the line you know i would really hate quite a bit actually the de-risking as we've been exposed with in recent times but that's the aml but that's what it's based on because i've seen complaints we look on the the finance side you see complaints for things like Jamaica has too much US dollars. We have too much US cash. You know who can speak on this? Who? Khalilah. Because she was heading the speech at the GIFs.
Starting point is 00:15:18 Jamaica Bankers Association, they had a whole thing about the risk and whatever. And she was leading the ceremony. Oh, okay. She was there. Yeah, I was there. She was emceeing. She was emceeing. So we were exposed to a lot of that.
Starting point is 00:15:33 They were talking about how to maintain a corresponding banking relationship because of the whole, us going over the AML space right now anti-money laundering counterfinancing and terrorism where Jamaica is posing a risk because of the scamming and those other illegal things that also washing money and because of our informal bank informal economy and the low banking rate in Jamaica okay so the head the whole day People are unbanked and yet there's a holding money.
Starting point is 00:16:06 So, there's opportunities for money laundering. Money laundering. Within
Starting point is 00:16:08 Jamaica. No, it's Caribbean. People externally that use a weak
Starting point is 00:16:15 financial system. They're coming and they use it. You know, it's funny
Starting point is 00:16:19 though. So, somebody there, one of the speakers, he was speaking about how in the USs it isn't that
Starting point is 00:16:27 these things aren't happening but u.s and the u.s and uk really they have the privilege of being the the corresponding banks exactly so even though things are happening there they can say hey we don't have to take on We don't want to take on The risk of Being associated With outside illegals So we'll put The heavy sanctions
Starting point is 00:16:53 On them We'll put the Heavy framework On them Of the whole KYC And that But in our countries It can be lax
Starting point is 00:17:00 Because guess what We have to deal With our things We don't really Have to deal with you Yeah So we make you sort of sort of yourself to deal with us deal with us yeah we we worry about us in our own time yeah and it well that might sound complicated or simplified for anybody listening one of the simple versions of that is like marijuana yes it's a great example that like the truth is american and uk
Starting point is 00:17:28 banks and european banks so heavily uk banks england and america we know them too them carry the weight they say what goes and really it's america carries the weight it's the world's reserve currency so it's not a matter of whether or not you're doing something wrong or right is i don't like it this is the rules that you need to abide by that i like right yeah and if you don't like it you don't have to follow the rules you know you're just not allowed to do any business with me and anybody who want to business with me can do business with you that's america's real power so that's why the local bank or financial houses, even if they want to collect money from medical marijuana places,
Starting point is 00:18:11 they can't because the U.S. says, yo, to us it's illegal. So we can't do it and you can't do it either. You can do it if you want, but you're not going to be able to touch all bank institutions. So the real threat is like if NCB or S ncb or a subject or a scotch or anybody actually accepts money from them from one of those medical marijuana places you're yeah you got people there guys so guess what you get cut off and you can't go nowhere
Starting point is 00:18:34 else because anybody who do business with you can't do business with me client of a client yeah so so it's a power as always a rich man met the rules. So I know we're upset with the government because they don't fix up marijuana industry. But in reality, they kind of really can't at this moment.
Starting point is 00:18:51 If you want things to go bad in Jamaica, lose that corresponding banking relationship and you see what happens. You're mad? As he said, the world's reserve currency.
Starting point is 00:18:59 Imagine we can't trade anymore because we can't get any more US. Well, wherever it is at that point. Yeah, no remittances can't come no exactly there's also everything that shuts down yeah but hell that's another tangent yeah tangent to um we're talking about the the industries what how does the market define industry i feel like there's another part of that tangent that i've forgotten but if i forgot it's a circle if it's forgotten it's forgotten um there's finance i wouldn't heavily buy after that
Starting point is 00:19:28 so we're talking about that first manufacturing which have like the salad as a separatist with cinco that's all i think so from you make it in manufacturing communications and i have like rdr yeah okay but there's no more. Yeah, right. Digicel Jamaica. It'd be nice if they listed. Not the whole Digicel. Digicel Jamaica. But then I don't think the whole Digicel would give up.
Starting point is 00:19:54 Well, they wouldn't have to give up. I think it'd be a hard price because Jamaica supports their system. Digicel. Yeah, but you don't have to list all. Just list peace. No, it's Jamaica. But imagine I give up the gold. Yeah, but you don't have to list all. Just list peace. No, it's Jamaica. But imagine I give up the goal.
Starting point is 00:20:07 Yeah, but you're just giving up a piece of the goal. True, true. You know they're not really giving up peace. Yeah, yeah. They can't throw 80%
Starting point is 00:20:12 Right now they need some cash. I wouldn't be surprised if that's one of the plans to list your slow entities, your local entities in order to
Starting point is 00:20:22 pull cash into operation. You'd have to give up the whole thing. Yeah, you're right. Give up 20% and get a big cash influx. You have some bonds to pay. Your bonds are
Starting point is 00:20:35 your bonds are well, bonds are low risk. Low risk, so they'll be fine. Tourism and other services. So, I'm looking at VM wealth wealth vm wealth how vm wealth
Starting point is 00:20:49 sections out the industries industries yeah so i think jc doesn't do a good job of it you know they have author a lot there's a lot of other what do you do other but somehow fontana made it on the mdi right that's funny um you have tourism and other services like i say you have retail trade and conglomerates which have been it like panjam jamaica producers it's a retail trade and conglomerates and vm the thing i'm looking for vm has sagicor group jamaica limited under retail trade and conglomerates and vm the thing i'm looking for vm has sagicor group jamaica limited under retail trade and conglomerates why i'm not sure why i am actually not sure why yeah that's weird maybe because like sagicor is things like property management i don't know if does ncb have any money they use it now i'm still financial does does
Starting point is 00:21:47 a property management wouldn't necessarily be financial? With how much of their operations are property management? It's minuscule.
Starting point is 00:21:54 Yeah. It's just that I'm thinking that if they have that it makes them a conglomerate. Sure. They don't own
Starting point is 00:22:01 the Playa as a subsidiary outside of Jamaica? An associate. An associate which makes as a subsidiary? Playa Associe Associe Which makes it a subsidiary? No
Starting point is 00:22:09 Not really Not in the technical Technical also But we own peace And it's a part of our operation So yes In technical finance Subsidaries start at 51%
Starting point is 00:22:18 Or 50.01 Yeah If you have more than 50 Then More than 50% Then you're a subsidiary Or If you look at KW Look how than 50% in your subsidiary. Or, if you look at KW,
Starting point is 00:22:27 look how much KW JP owns. It's less than 50, you know. But I think they have significant board control so they can rank themselves up. Yeah,
Starting point is 00:22:34 yeah, yeah. The board control. Which is what exactly happened with Sajikor and Playa. With XFund. XFund.
Starting point is 00:22:39 Even Sajikor. Yeah. The company that they hold Playa through has a certain percentage has less than 20% of
Starting point is 00:22:49 the Playa but they have board members similar board members so they say they exert significant influence over the company
Starting point is 00:22:57 so they rank it up to the next level which is Associate I think another thing that they listed was that they have they are either the biggest or the second biggest single shareholder of the company in
Starting point is 00:23:11 the company which is why i was looking at what's the name qw i and jam t them results drop it no it's like a half earning season episode because half of the earnings come out so far but How much QWI does Jamty own at this moment? But they have seven board members and they have administrative control. They share a chairman.
Starting point is 00:23:36 So if they have less than 20, I wouldn't... Or just thinking like a 19 or 18, I would see where they would just be an associate. Make a case for an associate. And i think all the stuff will accept that if they want to if they want to so if they're not then i would see them holding qd as a trading company so body of shares for sale so the movement of the shares would be what would be recorded in
Starting point is 00:24:03 their numbers you think they did that i don't think so at all because the shares would be what would be recorded in their numbers you think they did that i don't think so at all because then they be moving from a revenue model of we fully consolidate our qwi with 100 million revenue are there about from them on the day which hidden profit line two but you have to back it back out you know oh well you back it out on the OCI? You back it out under the net profit? What's that? If they you're saying they would want to what are the options? I think they have so it's if it's less than 20 percent holding then they have the option
Starting point is 00:24:39 they then they would be either OCI trading the trading the movement of the stock in OCI or in share. You want to trade the movement of a stock in oci or in no you don't trade the movement of the stock in oci yeah man fvpl or oci you choose which one you want yeah but i'm saying if you trade in the movement of the stock then it's fvpl yeah i'm saying the option i'm giving options so if it's the movement of stock would be fvpl if i don't want it so then you'll be you see it on the piano you see it on the profit and loss statement meaning if the stock goes up So you see it on the P&L, you see it on the profit and loss statement, meaning if the stock goes up at the end of the quarter versus how much it was at the last quarter, then that's considered a profit. And whatever the percentage is, the percentage profit they would make from that. And conversely, if it falls, then it drops.
Starting point is 00:25:19 So if it falls, it falls. I don't see them doing that. You don't see them choosing to do that? Yeah. Why not? I don't think they're doing that You don't see them choosing to do that? Why not? I don't know Because how they were recognizing QWI before They recognized QWI as a subsidiary So the trading game of a basket
Starting point is 00:25:34 Of stocks that QWI held Would give them revenue There we go So they were booking $100 million a quarter or so From QWI So you're moving from QWI's actual operations quarter or so from QWI. So you're moving from QWI's actual operations to the movement of QWI's stock price. I don't think they're doing that. So I think they would want to keep some of QWI's operation on their books,
Starting point is 00:25:54 which they don't hold 50%. I don't think so. But I think they do own either 20% or a little less, and they do have control in the company some controlling interest and they're i think they're the majority shareholder and they have similar board members they have board members in common so at some level i think they will be holding taking associate holding so any money qwii makes a share your share of profit are lost in associate. They're going to book for,
Starting point is 00:26:28 damn till we book in from QWI. That's the way I see it going on. And then you lose it on the, you give it back on the percentage that you don't own. There's a finance term for that. Oh, no, man. So I see where you're going, non-controlling interest. Yes, non-controlling interest.
Starting point is 00:26:42 So that's for subsidiary holdings. But isn't that what you're saying? No, man. Oh, sorry. No, no, no. It's an that's for subsidiary holdings. But isn't that what you're saying? No, man. Oh, sorry. No, no, no. It's an associate. It's an associate. My brain out here is an associate.
Starting point is 00:26:48 It's a share of profit, share of loss. Just straight share of profit. And share of loss. Okay. And as we have seen, especially over the last, if you watch the NAV
Starting point is 00:26:56 and do the NAV math, you've seen that there has been a significant shift in the NAV. I think they made money. I need to go check it myself. Let me clarify that. I saw people on Twitter saying that is a drop. Well, yeah, but the NAV
Starting point is 00:27:10 would have dropped from the increase in the share capital, in the shares that they, when the upsides are for. So, if you do the maths and they have more assets today than they had before, then they made money. If the next asset value not this none not nice I've not missed I said by a per share net asset
Starting point is 00:27:31 value itself the actual value from the holding of the holdings are more than they were before they listed then they made a thing there then then they they made a profit they made profit profit. So in other words, people just haven't been paying attention to the fact that post IPO, their share counts would have gone up
Starting point is 00:27:50 more than double. They issued more shares than they had originally. Yet the NAV The NAV seems to be around what it was when they were IPOing. Yeah. As of today.
Starting point is 00:28:03 I do need to qualify exactly how much of a move though so we now record that yeah we shouldn't probably should be tonight i don't need that last i don't need that advanced girl and but i didn't well i'll say what i did first and then you can see the mistake was so what i did was just in conversation i said let me just be quick and work it out so i'll just take the current share count and divide the old the old asset value the old total asset value
Starting point is 00:28:31 by the new share count and then just compare that number to the current NAV wait new share count that's probably good then you probably
Starting point is 00:28:39 it's very good you move from if you use the if you use a new share count on the old asset values so from the prospectus you i think you get that nav brochure you get that i think the nav is like 88 cents what did you did you factor in the new money they received from the ipo so that's what i think i did wrong oh i didn't factor in the new money from the ipo so i've got any new money and see if they actually made money on the new one on the new one exactly
Starting point is 00:29:03 exactly so that'll be the difference that's that's that's precisely the thing so that was a mistake I know I haven't made it I need to go back on yeah so put the old money back in cuz I need 88 cents does sound so nice yeah but who knows 88 cents we double 88 cents cuz they pulled money for that money that they got right they got money for the shares i should so see double 88 cents now you're looking at what no then it would not you would have fallen then he may very level last money mm-hmm well that's a matter of people need to work out a new with a new share count and a new money they put in and you'll be good yeah i think the people from grow they
Starting point is 00:29:41 want me to send i like i'm gonna send them something so it's a nice gift maybe i'll do the work and just send it to them. Send them a nice email. Especially since you mentioned it at the time. Yeah, especially because I'm going to run off my mouth on the podcast. Say, hey, I made a mistake, guys. Say, wait a minute, Randy. Come on, pay money.
Starting point is 00:29:57 How dare you not be perfect? It's true, I have to be honest. I don't think the people at Grow expect me to be perfect. I do think They tend to enjoy The events It's actually It's a good It's a good
Starting point is 00:30:09 It's a good Expectation That they don't Expect to be perfect It's when I just joined I expected Randy To be perfect And I made a loss
Starting point is 00:30:17 Because I expected Because of my expectation Of Randy reaching Into what it wasn't Into a place It shouldn't have been I heard Randy mention CWJ About it Because boy This man mentioned CWJ the price Must be shooting soon You know reaching into what it wasn't into a place it shouldn't have been i heard randy mentioned cwj
Starting point is 00:30:25 about it because boy this man mentioned cwj the price must be shooting soon you know i stayed out of me because of sarcastic comment he made i just i just looking on the group and the thing there oh you made a sarcastic comment about oh look at marketing because somebody was trying to oh we're saying that what them do do nothing they weren't you know somebody trying to do anything and they were trying to pick you to try to say oh you know me mention it's a Randy where mention me can tell give me the food are you enough about that yeah so you see basically the bad one so you money snuggle in for the IPO many been bigger than what I asked about it when he was visiting she asked me oh then I hear me cause you know I've
Starting point is 00:31:02 going to investment in in 2017 that same year then I knew IPO coming out into it so I'm like I don't want nothing marketing company oh god you repeat
Starting point is 00:31:12 the whole work same so then they come around the night around the end and I'm talking about how much they're making on me
Starting point is 00:31:21 and this is me sitting back I think Chadrick had told me to do it Chadrick my friend Chadrick had told me to do it. Chadrick. Yeah, man. My friend Chadrick got me in. Showtime. Showtime, Chadrick.
Starting point is 00:31:30 People got me into investing. Yeah. People actually got me investing. Man, investing before I was and with scholarship money. Well, yes, eh? Yeah, man. Is that allowed under the terms of the scholarship?
Starting point is 00:31:41 Oh, yeah, man. So he got a... There are paid parts of the scholarship where you get extra money, more than you actually need for school. So he can do other things with it, but his parents cover him basically beyond what he needs for the actual school fee.
Starting point is 00:31:55 So he just invested that portion of it. And so I was in university and him telling me to invest, I was talking to Kim Basu about investing, trying to, you know, pick her brain and get what she got me. She got me talking. She got me looking at it because it was class.
Starting point is 00:32:09 And she was talking some interesting shit. That was probably my most interesting class because she was talking about actual money, money. And beyond boy, insurance. And no, that was not me for Oxeye. So, yeah. She made me see that Oxeye can be. Yeah, Madrigi was was applicable beyond just going insurance or working for...
Starting point is 00:32:27 Everybody wants to work for Sajikora Guardian Insurance. She made me see my degree was applicable beyond that. So, yeah. You're a bigger up. Yeah, man. I'm a narrator.
Starting point is 00:32:37 She's funny. She's funny on Twitter and she does art. Oh, yeah. She does art. And intelligent jokes. Yeah, man. That's right.
Starting point is 00:32:45 I really I really I really I really I really I really I really I really I really
Starting point is 00:32:46 I really I really I really I really I really I really I really I really
Starting point is 00:32:46 I really I really I really I really I really I really I really I really
Starting point is 00:32:47 I really I really I really I really I really I really I really I really
Starting point is 00:32:48 I really I really I really I really I really I really I really I really
Starting point is 00:32:48 I really I really I really I really I really I really I really I really
Starting point is 00:32:50 I really I really I really I really I really I really I really I really
Starting point is 00:32:50 I really I really I really I really I really I really I really I really
Starting point is 00:32:50 I really I really I really I really I really I really I really I really
Starting point is 00:32:50 I really I really I really I really I really I really I really I really I really I really I really I really I really I really I really I really I really I really I really I really I really I really. Let me see if it's still there. I really like that picture. So people aren't lost. The picture says, guys, you'll have to use your imagination. I'm sorry. It's a picture.
Starting point is 00:33:14 It's an all black shirt with white writing. It says there are two types of people in the world. One, those who can extrapolate from incomplete data. And that is it. Yeah. All right. I see those comments, comments guys i really like that shirt i really like that shirt yeah i i might have to go i might have you to find her and make that shirt but yeah so she she did the same thing she make it real and applicable to be practical which i try to do with girl all the time too i try to show people
Starting point is 00:33:42 in them real life that's the one thing i talk to people that goal all the time and i think people make a misunderstanding that people misunderstand i said goalie more especially because they've said goal and if you usually ask them what's your goal and you hear them say oh i'm all my money you got no money everybody wants me money what's your reason what's your real goal and then all right when you press them then go like maybe two two to five hundred thousand you know like three to six months yeah that's getting better right but like the real goal is you pick pick something out of the two to five hundred tell me all right i want to make three hundred thousand dollars when you wanna make it six to twelve months pick pick pick pick up pick a month yeah all right six
Starting point is 00:34:21 months oh picking timelines has helped me so much it changes the entire face of investing I see it's this is one of the these are the sort of things I wanted to
Starting point is 00:34:30 tweet about heavily and bring the market about the industry not with it at all and the people some of the people in the industry not with it at all
Starting point is 00:34:38 them they're more they're not saying what Buffett said in the way that Buffett said okay I'm going to say Buffett say it too but alright yeah well if you actually follow Buffett you. In the way that Buffett said it. Okay, I was going to say Buffett said it too, but all right.
Starting point is 00:34:45 Yeah, well, if you actually follow Buffett, you know him. I think you said that, right? But literally, it makes a world of difference. Yeah. I hope somebody listening to this now learns, because I realize it's a lot of the talk, especially since I stopped arguing with people and quarreling with people. And you see the language has shifted.
Starting point is 00:34:59 The tones have shifted. And most interesting to me is that the things that they say have shifted I see people now saying things like what's long term to something might be short term to someone else
Starting point is 00:35:10 and vice versa and I'm like wow it's a good impact you know yeah it's a good impact I'm happy to see check themselves and say oh
Starting point is 00:35:17 you know that makes sense I hope that's why it is I want to be I want to be like that for my but people I'm a detractor too
Starting point is 00:35:24 where I can say, hey, maybe I was wrong, you know? It's great being right all the time, but eventually you're wrong. And when you're right all the time, you get this kind of cockiness. If you're wrong, sometimes you'll kind of learn and say,
Starting point is 00:35:37 hey, I'm not the perfect guy and I have a lot of space to learn. And when you acknowledge how much you have to learn, you're always in a better place. Yeah. Not nice like getting something wrong because now you have an opportunity to learn yeah but i hold it for time you miss the lesson if you this if you start bring anything other than the actual lesson into it you might miss the lesson yeah you brand and one of the easiest thing for all of us myself included to bring into it is is ego yeah man kill the ego because you might learn so much for me i wanted and i still want to get everybody investing make
Starting point is 00:36:13 them see it i met the money i said yo my need for well i don't know i love that competition on the market imagine we're out like yes there no but i don't feel that pressure to be the guy there first imagine oh yo dust off this news it makes sense to everybody and anybody start rushing to it yeah efficient and i i imagine that and i wanted to and i still in some ways want to engender that in the market because especially the professionals because the professionals that have to do that but the professionals not with it at all like they don't understand why I compete I would I never expected that question you know compete because you want because you want us to get better you know why you know why European football is so great and so far ahead of the rest of the world because the competition within Europe is so intense.
Starting point is 00:37:07 Competition, no, struggle makes you stronger. Yeah. I think people think competition is a bad thing. No, it's not. No, it's only bad when you add your extra feelings. Yeah. I don't feel a way losing to Randy
Starting point is 00:37:19 because no, Randy can't tell me what he did. I never know. And what does losing to me look like? Oh, no. You went 250 and i went 200 oh right that's a competition though because before maybe they did that 10 a little competition yeah i learned from that it's weird to me it's weird to me it's weird to me investing for three years and tell you my returns are crazy for those three years and just because
Starting point is 00:37:42 because i run the private when i was running the group i am always trying to put a little bit of competition there because it brings the best portfolio is doing guys and i'll talk about where we are percentage wise and yeah though i get out of the new people always miss me i think you see it this more a lot new people they've always missed your one time and they're not really doing well on portfolio or everybody numbers look nice nah man talk the numbers because guess what i'm going to ask you why you reached there and you're going to tell me why you never do
Starting point is 00:38:08 and everybody can have an input on yo you should have done this or that was a good play maybe the play you took reached a 30% no
Starting point is 00:38:14 two weeks time because what you saw don't materialize it it might be variable still be there but you feel bad because everybody has 70%
Starting point is 00:38:21 you have 30% but in two weeks time everybody can look at the play you have and you reach 100% next week and everybody has the same play with you
Starting point is 00:38:29 so it's always good to talk about what you're doing and things so and if you have something wrong that's the best time
Starting point is 00:38:37 to talk about it because guess what you might be in the stock you make a 10% and you say boy it look it look good for the future and you and whoever talking
Starting point is 00:38:47 and then they show you that maybe yo maybe this 10% is the best thing getting out of it because you guys make a fat last next month so time to be out yep who did i do that for recently i don't know if i want to talk to people in business i won't call them a certain person person who they messaged me recently yesterday and said they had spoken previously and were talking about MDS
Starting point is 00:39:11 oh I think I would say the same message I like his drive and yeah I respect I respect that I respect him but the message essentially said save us some money thank you for saving me. Because as you can see, MDS results just drop.
Starting point is 00:39:29 We bring them up as we talk. And I think they just pick up a heavy loss, right? No, the loss was, profit was way below. Yes. When I said yes, loss. But you know. Loss on the quarter to quarter. Yeah, man, I know what you're talking about.
Starting point is 00:39:39 You know, the miscommunication that might happen. Yeah. Oh, God. Always. You are learning from that miscommunication. might happen. Yeah. Oh God. You are learning from that miscommunication. So let me be clear. And we should be clear because I always pressure
Starting point is 00:39:51 the people in finance that they need to be clear. So I try to be as accurate as I can, especially on something from the podcast. Which is why we throw things in the show notes.
Starting point is 00:39:58 When we talk about the MDS, the Medical Disposables and Supplies Limited that just dropped their six-month results and the financial highlights right at the start. I won't go too deep. Revenue for the last six months results mean six months.
Starting point is 00:40:14 Six months. But we know that companies report every three months. So this is really the second quarter results. But they're also telling you what first quarter plus second quarter is, six months. And the three months ended September 30th, so that's July, August, September, they made, they're pulling revenue of 565 million.
Starting point is 00:40:38 Same time period last year, July, August, September, they had pulled in 500.9 million. So they make about- 13% increase. Yeah, or 64 mil 13 increase um profit gross profit okay cool yeah but i won't go through it nice yeah man that's a nice episode since you know since we're going on so much tangents yeah tangent to let me get into something oh you go from the revenue and profit when i'm talking to people i think i think you you face this they think you only look at two
Starting point is 00:41:05 things we know we look at we know where we look at everything where the where the money is lost if it's in the continent yeah yeah but you're right because because of the conversation especially because of how i speak and in words you and i speak similarly i know i don't like to talk a lot on certain things so yeah all the people know you don't like to talk a lot on the podcast yeah man so i don't make make i don't i don't make a lot of tweets because i don't want to be making a long thread so i know there's a lot of things i can drop i can talk about but i just not i get tired thinking about speaking about that much so i just don't bother yeah i'll try guys i really i really i'm trying i'm trying more
Starting point is 00:41:42 yeah but yeah i mean do i do i need to try try to put out there show the people because there are people what i've found one thing i can tell you that i've found there are a lot of people who see it but maybe they don't interact with you but they do look out for it oh definitely i have a couple of dms where somebody say oh they saw the tweet from before and i mentioned whatever yeah there's another name a boy i'm so very careful i don't ever really want to call people's name and sometimes i ask people and they're like yeah man of course you can big me up all the times you're like they'd rather not you want that heat yeah they don't want the heat they don't want the noise and i can understand that as somebody who
Starting point is 00:42:18 believes on it don't like it so i try not to call the names too much so but this person messaged me again and this one is today and she she just she said she shared a tweet of mine so i can share the tweet that it was a tweet of mine where i said that from august 12th this year where i said that i've been looking at polls for a few years now oh yeah man yeah let me read the tweet i've been looking at polls for a few years now moving in and, yeah, man. Yeah, let me read the tweet. I've been looking at Pulse for a few years now, moving in and out at various times and keeping a few units for the long term, which I have said that publicly, I think. Well, obviously, I tweeted it
Starting point is 00:42:52 and I said that to a couple of girls. And I exited for my own reasons and sold those units earlier this year at a nice little profit. But Pulse never left my mind, right? And it's quoting a tweet from? And I'm quoting a tweet from july 4th 2018 yeah where he talks yeah and in that tweet i'm talking about an email that i sent and when i sent this email
Starting point is 00:43:14 20 well at the at the point in 2018 the tweet says that i i had sent the email two years before that two years and two months before that and this was in july 2018 so two years before 2016 yeah 2016 thereabouts um so that was me and the email is me guys check the show notes yeah it was me it wasn't even nice things just looking at what they were doing yeah doing a quick little analysis of it and um and sharing it with a couple of friends i mean i'd started saying you guys always ask me about stocks let me try it yeah since i'm always talking about it plus it was it helped me at the time to put together my own thoughts i think i need more that different you know i need more that yeah try it try it try it yeah maybe something coming guys maybe yeah big
Starting point is 00:44:04 up shani because shani who does the same thing um she showed me a pdf she did for herself and that's how she's doing she's looking at a company at the time she's kind of mpc and she put together a document for herself pdf you know she just put the share price in there and she's right okay so this happened that happened share price dip it's cool some people think like that some people don't it work for them but i realized for me it works it works yeah all right all right out you know even i work on events you work on events we i write out what event will impact impact this company is expected and then they impact on the stock price if it will materialize the company i write out my companies whatever i'm looking at in whatever period of time
Starting point is 00:44:45 look at the period it will affect it and then go I don't need as much as I should but I have my notes all over the place
Starting point is 00:44:53 yeah I make notes myself along the same lines and reminders yeah and those words oh it's like it's like a little message
Starting point is 00:45:00 from past Randy pop up pop up today yeah look at look at Pulse they're about to report their q1 earnings and i'm like oh wow thanks pastor and i check and or or sometimes you say yo remember to buy pulse because they report a q1 earnings in two weeks that's all the best ones remember to sell yeah because you know sell ones are important you know so the rundown
Starting point is 00:45:21 you know when to sell is even more important than when to buy. If you don't understand, if you didn't buy, you never make
Starting point is 00:45:32 money, you never lose money. If you sell at the wrong time, you very likely lost money. Yeah.
Starting point is 00:45:38 Selling involves a decision, involves a situation that can have a money loss involved. Buying involves a situation where you are okay
Starting point is 00:45:46 before you're about to embark on something that could screw you up it's it buying is an increase in risk yeah as you know i listed that episode where we started off talking about risk about 10 times obviously i listed the episodes a lot because i have to listen again again before the show or whatever but i really like that risk episode i think risk is one of my idea of risk is one of my profound thought processes like i really think about that and the way it actually works in real life versus how it is presented and calculated i was actually really good at it like in we'd have some of our risk in cape math probably i'm really good at probability so that was it was the same thing yeah yeah risk is probably yeah
Starting point is 00:46:31 but quantifying risk and applying it in real life is very different from putting a piece of paper and telling me oh it's probably the distribution going to do whatever so i have expression 30 percent like you could have it might not be real because you can't it very it can mimic but it's not very often that things will fall within the parameters for you to quantify risk in that way so yeah sure in a lab sure you do testing whatever on a stock market when you have so much information you're not that's not open to you good luck bro yeah and and you have to be able to stay on top of the information which is apply apply the concept that you would have learned earlier which is information is always what cuts down your risk yeah you know then the less risk there is that's right give me a guy to read
Starting point is 00:47:21 the future and many will make a lot of money on this market you're right you're right yeah you're right because all we do is we try to be as accurate as possible yeah and you know you know how it feel when you buy something and a shock hits the company in a lot in a bad way like oh yo cpj that happened to me oh no go finish your story with the failing of with their it system yeah i'm sure other people were people were very optimistic about cpg at the time i was looking i was looking and you're like it might be a pop-up time and it happened so yeah yeah so you have to look at that so see where what do i know what can't i know if it's turning the car no you just can't know be okay with where what what you know and if what you
Starting point is 00:48:12 know is enough for you to make to put your money on this so you have to know where the best case it can be is where if everything you don't know can't really affect the company as poorly as as badly, so you can go ahead with what you know and make an investment. So what you know, it's so good for the company that what you don't know,
Starting point is 00:48:33 even if you put a segmental company in a loss, what you know is so good that boy, the profits fly anyway, then you're good. I like that. But loss is always An opportunity I was going to Speak about this
Starting point is 00:48:47 On Twitter But I didn't It would be a whole thread On Cygnus Where The Q1 last year They made a loss And made 15 strong results
Starting point is 00:48:58 In Q1 this year But the way It's structured The way We Probably look at Companies over 12 months 12month period of time, so if Q1 last year was good, and in Q1 this year is better,
Starting point is 00:49:12 then you expect that the price will move up. Because of a PE, profit is poor. Profit is the best metric you can use because no company exists outside of being profitable. It is the purpose of a company. If it is not profitable, then if it's not to be profitable, then its purpose exists separately
Starting point is 00:49:31 and you probably don't want to own it. Exactly. But we don't want to be a minority shareholder. True. But value only has a value to those who value it. To those who value it.
Starting point is 00:49:41 Exactly. Because there is some for that. But you can make it simple. You can say for-profit companies. The idea is that if you are for-profit companies, so they make profit last year and they're good this year and profit is better this year, expect that
Starting point is 00:49:57 if it's on a good price range, then price likely increases, very likely increases. Imagine they had a bad year last year and then have a good year this year then in a way of when that bad year comes off your 12-month valuation then probably company looks really nice so signals they had a they had a loss but all right so i want to say it's not a real loss which is a real loss because value was lost in the company let's say why you go ahead you know you know i want to say it's not a real
Starting point is 00:50:31 no no i want i want to hear i hear a lot of people so it's something i speak out against the people that try to say that revaluation of an asset so the movement of an asset assets value shouldn't be factored into the valuation of a company so they bought some usd they bought some jmd or so they bought some some currency above the actual trading price for the currency at the time okay so they booked an immediate so basically i buy so i buy some box for 20 but the boxes were 10 then in reality then i just made a loss so that's what happened with signals i bought some currency higher than the trading price the price never they bought some currency and the quarter ended the quarter end yes yes the quarter ended below where the
Starting point is 00:51:23 price they bought the currency at on average yeah yeah yeah so at the end of the day they booked all us if you looked at operations of the company they were the actual core operations of the company where they lend money the finance the finance companies in their operations then they were quite profitable but because of what they took the money and did with the buying of the currency, then they booked a loss because of it. So when I looked at that, I was like, all right, so the book a loss. We actually lost money, sure.
Starting point is 00:51:53 But the core of the company is still strong. And you can see over this year how well they've done with the operations. They had a great year, except for the Q1. So Q1, Q2, Q3, Q4 was great for Cygnus. Which means that there was a shift. There was a shift. In a shift in the year so exactly yeah you just chose a very complicated way to say that you really like when companies go through problems yeah yeah man definitely yeah i want i want to be as technical i want to be technical in this case i don't want to tweet the technicality i get you and i want to be technical so people can understand what i'm looking at from a technical
Starting point is 00:52:21 perspective yeah it's basically you can get technical you need to understand what's going on exactly and if you don't understand it you can't get through yeah
Starting point is 00:52:30 simplicity first simplicity is the first step simplicity is to survive big up to Landry but yeah so signals looks great to me because of
Starting point is 00:52:41 not because of loss but the loss really helps what happened so Q1 to me looks very not because of loss but the loss really helps what happened so q1 to me looks very nice because of that i like that i like that it's that easy way to know when you can get a profit in a year one year profit easy way to see this if a company nice thing is if a company goes through some trouble into yeah man for the first two months yeah and then them fix it in q3 and sometimes i'm fixing q3 and q3 kind of
Starting point is 00:53:06 if it but then telling them in the management yeah we have fixed it are you seeing signs that they fix it then q4 coming on q4 good you for a strong and the reason why being strong is because that's sending them because we have fixed it really and i'm saying to them annual report but by the time i know for ready to come out the new q1 come around and it's being compared against a weak q1 so now you're looking at a stronger entity compared against what it was when it's going in its problems and that's why you get those little headlines that push the market things like 110 percent pricing um um profiting yeah man it took me around to look for that yeah this this is where we discuss companies are going through bad times or a bad quarter because now we can say
Starting point is 00:53:45 all right guess what we like this company but i don't have to invest right now i can make money elsewhere and when that money is done mate i can come back to this company invest in this company and compound that money i just make so it gives you it delays your investment so you can say all right so no one one year time i check it back i can make money out of these other five companies for this whole year. And then I have my next investment planned a year in advance. So I line up a lot of bad things going on in companies. I mentioned one other day when we had Ryan on, where I said separate when they fixed up what's going on with Ryan now. Separate strong, strong pipeline. They're actually actualizing the pipeline they're buying in they're rationalizing the nestle operation the the
Starting point is 00:54:31 the bar from nestle the bug walk factory they are the factory space they're using x amount of it they plan to rent to people face it face it and make them make them 1% and the distribution line is being helped by Akain Face which is a distributor separate heavy manufacturer a heavy distribution line it really helps them and they're pushing new products
Starting point is 00:54:57 but they have this big last making part the sugar so people think once the sugar is off the books they'll be pretty once the sugar is off the books, they'll be pretty... Once the sugar is off the books properly, with the rationalization, well, these people need to get them paid out.
Starting point is 00:55:09 That's the next step that people don't make, right? Which is last quarter. I hear all the analysts saying the same thing. They say, oh, the sugar. When the sugar comes out, how many of them have gone back to... No, no, this is not... How many of them have gone back to check
Starting point is 00:55:22 and see how long it takes something like sugar to come out from the books look what happened i think they're um they had to spend money that to buy yeah the thing that's about the entire company so that they could hold it that's money spent um and so of course it's money spent to hold an asset but it's an asset that you know you're looking to shut up yeah so during all that time you have all this stock yeah sugar you have cane growing you know
Starting point is 00:55:47 so you can't say alright we don't need sugar and just walk away but you put money into those canes you have to write it off and you don't want to do that so you have to sell the cane
Starting point is 00:55:54 or the sugar and the actual financial process of writing it off and getting it off the books is not a one quarter thing yeah it can take it can take years sometimes
Starting point is 00:56:02 look at poor MG ah MG MG suffered for a long time with that. They shot that thing there. Tissue. Tissue, yeah. Took them a long time to get that off the books. But if somebody looked at that,
Starting point is 00:56:14 they'd understand then how to time separate. It's not that separate is bad. But separate does, they'll be bogged down for a couple of things. But look on thing there. Look at last quarter. Same thing you said, the analysts were very strong on Seprad
Starting point is 00:56:26 and we were looking at it like, why is Seprad? Like, no, no, no. Seprad isn't the same to the last stock. Seprad traded the same to the last. It's back down to 50 now. Yep.
Starting point is 00:56:34 So if you heard them talking about it, if you see people on Twitter saying it, if you never believe, if you think these people know it or you go inside the brokerage and the person, then they say nothing and they just throw it out
Starting point is 00:56:44 or you say, let me go find out on, they're not saying nothing and they just throw it out or you say, let me go find out on your own, whatever. If you spoke to an expert and the expert is telling you separate, then you need to go back to the expert and explain what happened and have them explain it to you.
Starting point is 00:56:55 Yeah. Not that they're wrong or whatever, but they need to explain it to you because time periods matter. So, of course, if you're buying for five years, you don't want to say it don't matter, but the truth is to to me, it matters.
Starting point is 00:57:06 It matters, yeah. Because it's the same point I made with XFund at the time. That it was obvious to me, and I don't think I did it in social. It was obvious to me that they were about to pull a huge loss, right? It's the same thing like with Sepra. Sepra is not about to pull any huge loss. They're actually doing very well. They're doing very well, yeah. But if you are looking at buying it with the intention of getting your
Starting point is 00:57:26 immediate benefit when sugar leaves the books because i think the number mentioned was 300 and something million that's expected to come back on into in terms of profit once the loss isn't there anymore then you need to know how long it's going to take them to take it off the books and then maybe you don't want to buy it when it's spiked now in the expectation of it coming off the books because people like me will see everybody saying it and i say no and it's ignored and i see the price spiking and i will sell because of course i have no issue selling at 70 when i know this thing is worth 50 right now and then when you come back down to 50 which is where it is right now buy again you buy it back we're friends again guys there we go and the difference between the two that's like a 40
Starting point is 00:58:08 difference you know if you if you're 70 yeah it's actually 40 percent that is serious yeah um look what i was saying no you're you're you're actually jumped in on my points I know I didn't say yo this tangent thing is really serious oh yeah finish the excellent story now I'll try to wrap up the time so I know my way we're in a group we're in the group together around people start stressing about joining this group it yeah man we're on the road if we're all yesterday that great bad new puns away to admit a group it never met her before but yeah big up she
Starting point is 00:58:45 she take her money serious she does take her money very seriously big up you're doing well but yeah she we
Starting point is 00:58:53 X-Fun me and Randy hadn't had much conversation one side about X-Fun but reports were dropping in the group from whichever broker
Starting point is 00:59:04 saying oh X-Fun is a buy whatever whatever people in the group from whichever broker saying, you know, X1 is a buy, whatever, whatever. People in the group were all hyped for it. And I said, is me missing something about X1? Where the money coming from? And they said, thank you. Because, yo, I've been on the same thing. And that's when we had the conversation.
Starting point is 00:59:20 It was just obvious to us that this thing not going to really work out. We know what's the booking plier we go and check what's going to be material to that booking of plier which was the movement of the share price and that was just sinking quarter on quarter
Starting point is 00:59:38 so we say look at that loss and lo and behold losses upon losses but yeah they ran into a heavy loss a lot so heavy that it looked like it was a big loss because their whole hotel operations almost all of them yeah man so what they sold out and what they have money they were in a loss despite having the one hotel and compared to the hotels they sold and then bought into a company that now holds
Starting point is 01:00:08 a hotel. From billions to billions. I don't want to get it wrong. I think they made something like 15 Jamaican dollars. 15,000 Jamaican dollars a year in profit. That was crazy to me.
Starting point is 01:00:23 That was helped by the reworking of how they they chose to recognize recognize yeah which is how we started i like that you look like you're wrapping the tangent so we got to this tangent i was saying i'd be the person who sent me the thing that i'd said about pulse and i was going back to talking about how long it is that i've been watching pulseulse and going in and out at various times. So I went all the way back to the two years before 2018 because when I was looking at it, I was looking at it initially at $1.80. $1.80.
Starting point is 01:00:55 $1.80. Yeah, so this Pulse email that I'd sent in 2016, I think, think or 2015 whenever it was i'd sent it i'd sent it just as a couple of friends and my my initial it was a follow-up email so my initial email was saying i like how pulse looks and it looks really good to me and i'm buying some i was buying it at a dollar 80 at the time um and then when i'd send a follow-up email it was at i think three dollars i have it in the email so i'm looking at it at three dollars 23 and that would be 20 when that would be 20 2016 yes 2016 i know i got sold so that's a nice nice nice nice game right nice game in fact i
Starting point is 01:01:40 remember saying it there's 79 in four months. So that's pretty good. And since then, Pulse has continued to be very, very nice. It fell. It went all the way back down. We could have picked up Pulse, I think, up to last year. We were picking it up at some time. We were talking about the management fees coming down. Too hard, yeah.
Starting point is 01:01:58 And now, as of today, you're looking at Pulse where Pulse closed today. So people can can figure out which day we recorded this. I don't usually hide it but you can figure out what day we recorded this based on the price that I tell you
Starting point is 01:02:11 that Pulse closed today. So Pulse Investments, I know it's what they're named, Pulse Investments. People say they're not core anymore. They stopped being Pulse Modeling some time ago.
Starting point is 01:02:22 They're a company that makes investments in real estate and in modeling, of course, still in production and so on. Anyway, so they're a company that makes investments in real estate and in modeling of course still and production and so on anyway so I'm close to that $5 one five dollars and one cents Wow I did not check the market Wow doing real to proper proper proper causes our profit yeah post investments it's a like a lighter, I like the name change because the name change
Starting point is 01:02:46 shows where they are in what they're doing. What I'm thinking about what I'm doing. We are a real estate investment company. Yeah. So let me switch
Starting point is 01:02:53 to talk to Pulse. I'm sure some people want to hear our thoughts on Pulse, but I'll wrap the initial point, which was that I shouted out the young lady who,
Starting point is 01:03:02 another young lady who messaged me and she was saying, you know, she was just thanking me because she saw the tweet which I made in August of this year, 2019. In February, is it? Yeah. And she said, when she saw that tweet,
Starting point is 01:03:13 she took a look and then she went into polls and she took a look. Took a look. Yeah, but she's also been to Grow. To her credit, she's also been to Grow. So she knows that you start with your research. She said she took a look into it and she ended up buying it for, she ended up buying it for she ended up buying it for three dollars the same time that's from
Starting point is 01:03:31 august 12th so if it's at five dollars and one cent today that would mean that she is currently up 67 percent from august 12th to well at this, I have to tell you which day record is. From August 12th to November 11th. Oh, wow. September, October, November. Almost three months to the day. So, like, you're getting on post in four months. Yeah.
Starting point is 01:04:00 Wow. So, she repeated it. Wow. 67%. Yeah. You're a big up here. In three months. I love hearing that. Wow. 67%. Yeah. You're big up here. In three months. I love hearing that. Yeah. And guess what? Paul's still undervalued, in my opinion.
Starting point is 01:04:10 Yeah. In my opinion, Paul's still undervalued. The. Don't know. If real estate is an investment and you revalue, then you revalue. Your value of your assets are worth more. The company is worth more intrinsically. So.
Starting point is 01:04:25 There we go go see you there and then watch this too because what them do is they they are they're doing real estate in a nice way where the real estate
Starting point is 01:04:33 also earns for them yes so it's not just a revaluation because them have post hoteling so that's some cash flow for them so to reinvest
Starting point is 01:04:40 and their post rooms up Viller and I of Stonehill yeah so they're actually turning money and if i think i'd worked out the rough numbers based on it i can come back to it just to see what the numbers are based on their first quarter results which just drop because this is like a half earning season like i said so numbers just drop guys i will be prepared for this to go along
Starting point is 01:04:58 it might go a little long but james bro james yeah i will go into companies with this one for free free analysis for free luckily neither of us are experts neither of us are financial licensed financial analysts and this is not licensed financial advice we're not telling anybody to do anything we're not telling anybody to buy anything do your research speak to a licensed financial advisor from any other wonderful 12 13 how many brokers have 12 If anything, this should inform your analysis where you actually go out and look at it and you can say, hey, frame the conversation you have. Exactly.
Starting point is 01:05:32 You should ask your broker rep about something that you're interested in. And if you've heard us speak about it, the broker rep should be able to tell you something along the same lines that we're saying. Or if they're saying that we're wrong or if you don't tell me it's also just saying the idea and they're saying they're wrong the reasons for the wrong has to be important the most important thing is the why why yeah the why is the most important yes it should be a favorite question yeah but
Starting point is 01:05:55 big up her i won't call her name but big up yourself you know yourself she's come to grow she actually she actually wants to come to grow and she couldn't make it and she paid and something came up and she couldn't make it so i offer her as i usually do. She couldn't make it. And she paid. And something came up. And she couldn't make it. So I offer her. As I usually do. If you can't make it. I mean. Tell me if you want a refund. Whatever.
Starting point is 01:06:08 She said. No. No. No. Just keep the money. Tell me when the next one is. Yeah. When she comes the next one.
Starting point is 01:06:11 I think she missed two. And she ended up coming to. She dedicated to her money. Yeah man. She dedicated to her money. And up well it work. Wow. 67%.
Starting point is 01:06:21 Bro. Wow. The way I like to say about A- you said to me when you were first joining the group um well when i started when me and you when i actually started going into actual investment properly um you said uh you should be making more money than you pay than you pay randy for oh yeah definitely definitely i always try to make sure that the people because i do charge a lot for the class 85 years not cheap but but the value added you must you must if i you might think i'm not getting i don't want usual jamaican so randy's a capitalist that uses words
Starting point is 01:06:55 like like teeth so randy will come to another two teeth yeah yeah yeah yeah if i'm charging you that i'm making sure that you get treated the way i expect to be treated when i pay that kind of money yeah i'm gonna go a party for you but save up the little money all year and go frenchman i eat every boat i drink everything i dance but when the music lock off my leave but but the idea is get your money's worth and if i have a product that i'm putting out there my product needs to ensure that it it can't screw up my name especially because it's in a dice space and i'm not i'm open about the fact that a lot of the people in the industry at least initially have been very rough towards me so i have no say my thing i've been on point nobody can come to class and say yo
Starting point is 01:07:40 scamming thing yeah man i make sure it's on point. I make sure I see them do it. And to me, the true mark of whether or not I've impacted them properly is if they go out and do exactly how you do. Make decisions that show themselves
Starting point is 01:07:52 that making money. I always, I say to them, I grow that, I try to ensure that if somebody have, let's say, over 100 grand.
Starting point is 01:08:02 Not everybody has that, but if you say you have 100 grand put on and you take some money or you take some money you take your you find 85 you're saying pay and you come to grow event you should learn so much and have such an appreciation for you learn there that you should be able to make investments and over the next three months those investments should make you more profit than the cost of the ticket so you should pay back the cost of the ticket that's what i try to ensure that the inventors are so far i've managed to do for every single one
Starting point is 01:08:28 this is right so you know a good amount of people think that i get dm's people asking how to start a brokerage and them things that rich people think and then i say oh we had jayman be on the podcast the other day and they were this is the minimum is five thousand dollars and i said that wait i have five thousand out right now yeah I think actually let me give them I mean it's not an ad they didn't pay for this
Starting point is 01:08:49 but big demo much respect for coming on the I think the minimum now is $10,000 but the reality is JNB is so good you can't knock them
Starting point is 01:08:59 for them customers here if you go there with $5,000 they're not going to knock open that account for you they're not opening it same
Starting point is 01:09:04 they won't save on it until I don't know if they won't allow it i'm not going to not work for you i'm gonna open it same account until you want to save on it until yeah i don't know if they want to they might but the minimum i'll be responsible i said the minimum to open that jm is 10 000 dollars but i have heard many experiences from people who said they never like them they just did it and i'm going for something else and say oh i'm on the brokerage account and then says 10 grand if i only have seven grand. For true. And I said, come in. JMNB,
Starting point is 01:09:27 the democratized investment space in Jamaica and to this day, they're living up to it. So yeah, man, big up Dayton. So you can, as you said Dayton,
Starting point is 01:09:36 Dayton says, him alone has strength. I'm talking good about JMNB. I'm very critical when I talk about companies. That's where I come off that's where that's my stance I have to go critical so I don't miss the wrong I try not to miss the wrong things by in by looking at the parts of the company I like so big up Dayton. Big up Dayton Lawton. Dayton Lawton. Dayton Lawton. He says he's been bridging for a long time. I don they say it's not bridging from long time i don't know for bridging no he's back and forward and he's not bridging but he's in his mind but in
Starting point is 01:10:10 my mind he is my virgin from high school we've known each other since first home actually so if you think i'm old then it's just as old yeah it's just as old um because we went to went to high school same time same class 1997 from from then until the end of high school i mean our mothers know each other yeah big update on i don't know if we're supposed to be at war or not but big update on to me um i like that but yeah that's what i want i want people to get the kind of value they make money and i want people with money i want to make the money not nice like that when somebody start try learn it i made the first look of money yeah man that's when you know say them them serious about them thing wait trust me i hear my talk about beat
Starting point is 01:10:54 salary brother i started my initial investment was less than the minimum of the investment of our investment of the investment house that i was working at but because i worked there i got to open an account with no minimum so i had less than ten thousand dollars and the account opening requirement minimum was ten thousand dollars at vm i don't know if it's changed since ten thousand dollars i had less than ten thousand dollars but i worked there so them say no minimum open the account and that was my starting. And every, I penny pinch every single salary. So I can, some months I never make,
Starting point is 01:11:29 I don't buy the money that day. So I can't, I can't put money on the account this month. But I was a super budgeter to the point where I always talk about this, where my budget was so tight. That I know every single spend coming in the month coming in the month so when i get my salary i take the excess put an investment account and it was so tight that right the day before a payday when i buy a lunch it sends a loan leave on my account
Starting point is 01:12:00 on my card so i can't my account don't sense i can't spend anymore because that's how much money i took off the account so if if i eat lunch today and the money and i i get caught in situation then my car go home i can't eat tomorrow if i don't get paid i'm not eat it was that time and it really worked because i never had to be in a situation luckily um but yeah so if you hear me talk about how much money i'm beating my salary coming from my salary now is quite a bit more than more than it was back then yeah big up your current employer you know all right so humble brag um i talk about things what big up my current employer so when i moved from the old place to
Starting point is 01:12:54 mayberry my salary went up about my so i went up about double wow People never talk about their salaries, do they not? That's good. Yeah, man. So, I went up about double. So, I remember when I started tweeting
Starting point is 01:13:12 every month that I'm beating my salary at my current place, well, not current, at the half-year mark, they again increased my salary and some may bear send money what was hard yeah was boy all right so in june i was beating my salary next month my pay got up i'm gonna still have a tweet that i beat my salary so i forgot to beat the salary next month my pay got up. I still have to tweet that I beat my salary.
Starting point is 01:13:46 So I have to go beat the salary next month even though the pay has gone up. You lock yourself into a social pressure. I like that. In my head I was like, alright, fine. I want to tweet that for the rest of the year. That I beat my salary. That's a nice goal. So you give yourself a goal.
Starting point is 01:14:01 I like that. I have to tweet that for the rest of this year November, December To go two more months It's funny enough So tell that one So salary going up So it's now harder to beat the salary
Starting point is 01:14:16 But I said I forgot to do it But boy start investing So possibly you can beat your salary With the gains you made I had to do it. And I've done it. Currently, I've beaten my salary for the whole year. As in you've already beaten your projected annual salary?
Starting point is 01:14:36 It's been quite a while, actually, that I've beaten it. They never said that on Twitter. So every month I tweet in, oh, I beat my salary. But I have beaten it for quite a while now. So my year-end tweeting I'm sorry but I have beaten it for quite a while now. So I'm a year end salary
Starting point is 01:14:47 with the increase that I've been. I tweeted this one. I think he got lost in
Starting point is 01:14:54 the crowd. Nobody mentioned anything about it. Well now you know all the followers.
Starting point is 01:14:58 Yeah I know. You know the followers. I just want a conversation more than actual followers. Good conversations. People want to come to good conversation
Starting point is 01:15:06 and good conversation around investing so the following it only goes so far i guess yeah whatever you do with it yeah that's me i mean um to me yeah you i think you have better reason for audience than me currently i get it yes yeah well yes yes yeah because you have you want people to get in the best thing actually talking about it i do my drive for it isn't it's not as much as yours i i want to more inform the people and talk to them and go hey buddy something actual proper recommendation i can't do that no not doing it yet not doing it at all right now. But I prefer the conversation and we can talk about stocks.
Starting point is 01:15:48 Everybody can be educated together about stocks. You want people investing, making money. I think your drive for it is more than mine. But yeah, so the tweet I mentioned that
Starting point is 01:15:58 at the end of, at the start of this year, start of 2019, my investment account, the money I had on it, was exactly half of my annual salary at the time for 2019. So say it was 500,000, my annual salary was $500,000. Or it was a million. The math is for the people.
Starting point is 01:16:19 So if you say your annual salary is a million, you would have had 500,000. In my investment account at the start so i'm trying to frame that it isn't that i had a lot of money and boy make one percent of what they beat the salary because i had way much more than your salary i had to actually make that half for half the half of my salary 50 percent of my salary be the returns from that alone be the actual salary okay so just so people are clear you're saying that your salary for the returns from that alone be the actual salary okay so just so people are clear you're saying that your salary for the year and it's pretend the pretend salary for the year is
Starting point is 01:16:49 a million dollars i mean just and i'm only on me and that's good yeah so i'm just doing anything simple so a million a million would be a salary for the year and you start the year with 500 thousand there and what you're saying is that at the end of the year if you have if your investment account is now over 1 million you're not saying that it has to be it has to be over 1.5 that's what i just want to make more than the 1 million for the year from the 500 exactly so you have to make your salary plus have at least what it is that you started out with yeah okay that bose it but in other words you're literally is that you started out with. Yeah. Okay. That bodes it bad. In other words,
Starting point is 01:17:25 you're literally saying that you have taken the portfolio that you had at the start of the year, which was half of your salary, and you have made that half of your salary pay you your salary. Plus the increase. Plus the increase that you got halfway through the year, which made it harder. Which made it harder.
Starting point is 01:17:43 That's a good increase though. I don't think people, if anybody work with a number so that realizes, you realize you could hire yourself. Yeah. Yeah. Essentially,
Starting point is 01:17:49 you took six months of your salary and you managed to make it pay for the year so you could have hired yourself this year. Yeah. Yeah. And people can do that. And this has been a good year to do it. The last few years have been a good year
Starting point is 01:18:01 to do things like that, but we know that, right? But obviously, as we've seen coming from way back there's so much that that could have been done so much that people have done yeah and and and more of it to be done so i'm glad for that we here's a tangent that we stopped in the middle that somebody vexed but we were talking about mds so we said that revenue wow yeah yeah yeah somebody has to be the time so mds 565 million in this quarter versus 500 million in the last quarter and um in under six months 1.1 billion
Starting point is 01:18:38 for this year versus the same six months last year it was one billion flat right and for greater context last year the whole last year they made 2.2 billion in revenue um i won't jump straight down to the net profit boy the net profit for the quarter 6.5 million versus 15 million last year what a drop so that is what the burden was messaging me and saying yo thank you for saving me from that because is what the brethren was messaging me and saying yo thank you for saving me from that because in the it was in mds and he was going to stick with it and giving himself all kind of reasons remember that little line that was said people believe a lie either because they want it to be true or they're afraid it's true so i think he was telling himself all the reasons why it would be good um and that's not to say that mds is a bad company it's a cool company it's obviously
Starting point is 01:19:22 still profitable but there's no reason to stick with something if you see it's going you see going into something bad right yeah man investing is like a magical taxi if you see the pothole coming you just disappear yeah man and you're going to come back out of the pothole you're back in there again five it up trees that's literally how you can do it investing so he jumped out of it and he he was holding out to jump out at eight dollars in say and he never bothered jump out at eight dollar in him call him say him listen him jump out at seven dollars and change and know with results like these with what kind of drop is that last year was 15.7 million in net profit on the quarter and this quarter is 6.5 million that work out so you know supposed to be a wicked man yeah yeah you shouldn't podcast
Starting point is 01:20:14 while tired guys Wow yeah 60% drop basically yeah roughly Wow mm-hmm what's the reasons I take it for this you know actually i didn't really report i didn't read it i didn't manage many social analysis i just jumped to the numbers the numbers yeah the numbers the numbers showed you what do you remember where the drop look at the look at the gross profit numbers i assume look on it just for posterity i can tell the people because i told him the three months on the six month side 1.12 billion versus versus 1 billion the year before so they're making more in revenue but less in profits or something so some expense some expense in there is eating something out right um and the profit on the
Starting point is 01:20:57 six months is 22.6 million versus 34.8 million so drop there again what did they say so where's when you look at the financials the real drop is under admin expenses have flown by 10 roughly 10 million from 47.8 to 58.2 oh I read it on the phone. Yeah. Which then means that, well, admin expenses have gone up. Who knows what that means. Under six months, it moved from 96.7 or 96.8 to 109.4. I'm fine. I'm fine. So it's definitely.
Starting point is 01:21:39 It's opening on my phone already. All right. Yeah. And selling and promotional costs also go up by 8 mil. But I can understand. I'm in the business. I business i'm the candy i can understand they do have the candy distribution yeah yeah i can understand um selling a promotional cost going up because revenue went up revenue went up yeah so it helped yeah you're saying i'm wrong trying to help yeah you can't say that it helped there you can make the assumption that it helped there so you spent eight million more on selling on promotion and help. Yeah, you can say that it helped there. You can make the assumption that it helped there. So you spent 8 million more on selling on promotion
Starting point is 01:22:06 in order to help pull in 65 million more in three months. So for the company, that's okay. I guess... Depreciation was a marginal increase. So I'm looking at selling administration and admin expenses as the real jump. Because you look at the thing there, you look at the gross profit,
Starting point is 01:22:23 it's still above the previous quarter. But you look at the thing there you look at the gross profit it's still above it's still about the previous quarter but you look at the profit after operational expenses it's way below yeah and the big two things that stood out to me are the admin expenses and i will give the selling and promo costs because you put more revenue you spend eight million more i got 65 million yeah that would look good to me. You want something funnier? Admin can work like that where you hire more people. Ah, you did something that had more administrative function to it that had more administrative cost.
Starting point is 01:22:53 Yeah, but it's not efficient if you lose more money. If you lose more money hiring them than the cost of the revenue. The final profit of actually hiring, of bringing them in. Sometimes, because business is not one-to-one. Yeah, definitely.
Starting point is 01:23:09 Because maybe it was worth it for me to do that because it killed a competitor. Yeah. And then you go in the future, get more market share. Exactly, yeah. So it's a long-term picture. Yeah, yeah, yeah. So I wouldn't knock that.
Starting point is 01:23:21 Yeah, definitely. But I don't know if that's what it is. And what stands out to me is that last year, they had other operating expenses. Yes. And this year, it's swung in a complete other direction, right? So I'll have to check what exactly that is. Yeah, that's something that I'll have to dig deep on. I won't go through that on the podcast.
Starting point is 01:23:40 That's homework for you guys if you want. But the point is that I would look to see what what what could have happened there in terms of those especially increasing admin expenses because nothing else has had quite the same hit in fact they made less of a loss you know some people have met the fx loss loss on foreign exchange they made they lost five million less than they did almost six million less than they did the year yeah i have to investigate why exactly i think companies are handling the fx poorly we've spoken about this before in terms of how they react to the fx every time fx will be a ball versus we have a hedge but it's i saw some the boj is working on a platform for foreign exchange trading platform so i think companies will be it'll be easier for
Starting point is 01:24:25 companies to buy into a forward hedge like all the price the price i think they're low so i may get it now you think they might start selling jmd futures jmd futures boy that would be nice do it find some way somehow brokerages can do it to get it to get it out to the public yeah is it a public Is it a public or accredited investors? Sorry, I'm thinking of it from the side of... Oh, where we can get into it?
Starting point is 01:24:51 Investment, not the utility of it. So obviously the companies need hedges and they should be. If you have a company right now and you buy US dollars or do something in US dollars
Starting point is 01:25:01 every single month, you should be talking to your banker about a hedge facility so that you don't talking to your banker about a hedge facility. So that you don't have to be exposed to the heavy fluctuations. It's normal. It's normal.
Starting point is 01:25:10 It's normal everywhere else in the world. I think Jamaica has been... That has this problem. Yeah, the current foreign exchange regime is what is normal everywhere. Yeah, and it's good. And it's better. You might not think it,
Starting point is 01:25:23 but trust me, it's better. Yeah, let me pause and big up boj the bank of jamaica on twitter especially them new account everything and good conversations with them yeah i like what they've been doing maybe we have them one of them talk to us i really love that yeah that's actually a nice thing i'll consider that i'll touch a button or two that i know up there um but big them up for that. But yeah, you were saying about the current regime in terms of how it's handled.
Starting point is 01:25:48 Yeah, how it's handled. The actual movement of the dollar is more reflective of market perception and what's actually happening in the market versus... There we go. You know how...
Starting point is 01:26:00 Randy mentioned it to me yesterday. I don't want to steal your thunder. No, it's fine. Yeah, man. Give props. But he mentioned yesterday to me yesterday. I don't want to steal your thunder. No, it's fine. Give props. But he mentioned yesterday to me about the BOJ's mandate being inflation, controlling inflation and not the foreign exchange. It doesn't move too terribly. So I think they have.
Starting point is 01:26:22 That is their mandate. That's a very important thing because people tell you this and that's the point i think that should be made people tell you say yo there is there is um fx movement when the u.s dollar fly against the jamaican dollar right when that happens on the jamaican dollar week which is what it is everything costs more not necessarily the bank of jamaica has said publicly that their mandate is not to stop the jamaica into us dollar rate rate or any currency rate from fluctuating their job is to manage prices prices in jamaica the truth is we don't we shouldn't necessarily care if that
Starting point is 01:26:56 rate fluctuates as long as prices don't move of course you think yeah but when me if a bite and a foreigner sell you so in a rate got sell you. So that's when the BOJ will probably step in. But the BOJ does things to manage that. Exactly. They fix it. Where they go to the market and buy or sell. They do that.
Starting point is 01:27:17 Just not on your time. On the time when, okay, this will affect inflation. They have time selling. I i think they did one other day yeah they do that so their mandate is inflation so if you're cursing boj about cursing boj about where the fx is going you don't really mean to say this i guess that's not what they're looking out for and they don't control that it really is what's happening in the market or somebody a bond a big bond typical example
Starting point is 01:27:48 a big bond i'm going to mature soon and it's paid in us so we have to go buy some us so well and then push the u.s put pressure u.s got upward and conversely when we have selling of usd then that will push the usd down yeah because supply and demand when the demand drops or if the supply or pace is the demand the prices can fall or should fall i'll leave that one for the economists but that's exactly how it works and should work yeah currently so like well to bring your example into real life, we know that JMNB is making that big move with Alianza. Yeah.
Starting point is 01:28:27 And they're paying how much? Billion? Or is it million? It's almost 12 billion Jamaican. So it's almost a couple million US.
Starting point is 01:28:39 Yeah. Well, 200 and odd million US dollars that they're trying, that they'll have to pay. Pay. So they know
Starting point is 01:28:44 they'll have to pay. They're collecting it and as soon as they're collecting dollars that they're trying that they'll have to pay pay so they know they'll have to pay because they're collecting it and as soon as they're collecting it and they're buying they're increasing the demand heavily right
Starting point is 01:28:51 yeah because I remember I could be wrong except for misquoting the governor of the Bank of Jamaica but I remember him saying
Starting point is 01:28:57 that like for the three for the quarters or so far for the year there's like 800 million US worth of business that's being done right JMNB alone is 200 million out of that just in that one transaction 200 million alone in a one time so of course the rate of course we are a fourth of the business in so we're in the
Starting point is 01:29:22 11th month of the year and we're raising a fourth of the US business for the year the entire year so far yeah yeah yeah that's crazy yeah that's a lot of money it's not them alone yeah it's not them alone yeah exactly although US business doesn't stop while JMB does its thing exactly so regular business is happening probably some extraordinary business other places I'm sure a little bit at the end of the year the Christmas rush might be hitting it I mean
Starting point is 01:29:47 yeah so on yeah people buying stuff all kinds of things other little smaller bonds that have to pay out corporate bonds that have to pay out
Starting point is 01:29:54 local smaller but still US dollar still US dollar yeah dividends have to pay ECL do I dividend with it yeah
Starting point is 01:30:00 and their dividends are US dollar yeah Margarita announced on recently yeah so you know there's some pressure there some pressure there yeah that means it will be interesting to see if it falls in the future when the pressure eases yeah and what it falls by remember so we went up to 130 already and dropped all the way back to 125 yeah i never said that in my entire life i
Starting point is 01:30:21 don't know what could happen bam big, big up Bam Productions. Yeah. Yeah. So our producer, Bam, he was asking Randy, because Randy did something today. Randy loves charity, guys. He actually does. I love charity. I love spreading.
Starting point is 01:30:36 It's funny, I cost him money there about it, where he said, Randy, basically, it's spreading yourself in caring about too many people. Too many people. Yeah. But he did something at Wilmers boys school or girls school boys Wilmers boys school
Starting point is 01:30:46 today he went to speak to the fifth farmers about investing because they're doing the stock exchange
Starting point is 01:30:53 game some some of them are doing the stock exchange game and apparently David had
Starting point is 01:30:57 gone to them weeks before so big up JC Knight I know he went to JC yes I guess
Starting point is 01:31:03 must spread the love more than him old school I love them they're rated big up but he. I know he went to JC. Yes. Must spread the love, man, more than in old school. I love them thing, they're rated big up. But he was speaking to them and he said a lot of questions he got was about Forex.
Starting point is 01:31:13 You know, Forex, people love the Forex, they trade in. And it's so nice. It's so nice, yeah. Boy, make a bag of money. Some people really do make money in it.
Starting point is 01:31:20 Staplers, staplers. Consistency, I don't know about that. I know off, but they're not the typical what we think about it but yeah so bam was asking what exactly is forex i know but he he did qualify to say he knows it's foreign exchange but in what way do people do it so i was explaining to the people that people they trade it so they go and say oh cool he go up i buy it it goes up, I buy it. It goes up, sell. It goes down and they buy.
Starting point is 01:31:46 But I was thinking of, I was talking, we see it on the market. I'm not sure people think about it like this. We spoke about shorts before and I said Forex is an inherent short. I made a tweet the other day about people should be doing well if they
Starting point is 01:32:01 people that been buying and imagine buying and shorting the USD against JMD throughout this era. You even said... We don't even have to imagine. People have been doing it. But Forex has an inherent short. When you're...
Starting point is 01:32:19 So, regular shorting and forego, you find a way to bet against a stock, basically. You get a contract regular shot and you make money when when the stock falls yeah but you have it's not you go and you do a contract you borrow the stocks and you sell them and you buy them back when they're down forex whenever you're in one thing yeah you're shorting the shorting the other thing it's a pair it's always a pair so yeah it trades in pairs so when the u.s is going up it's good to be in u.s so you can sell it
Starting point is 01:32:53 into jamaican and when the u.s is falling against jamaican you're actually making money because the jamaican is going to be invalid more so when you you actually buy the US at a lower price, you're just pricing that. Say that again because everybody lost. All right. So US and Jamaica, they move. So if the US is strengthening against the Jamaica
Starting point is 01:33:13 and you're in US, then you're along on US. Yeah. So you have an investment in US. So in other words, your whole US dollar is when the price is flying up. Like right now.
Starting point is 01:33:21 Yeah. And you're actually betting against the Jamaica. Yeah. You're betting that the Jamaica dollar. Betting Jamaica is falling. Yeah. So you're actually betting against the Jamaican. Yeah, you're betting that the Jamaican dollar. You're betting Jamaica is falling. Yeah. So when you buy the Jamaican now,
Starting point is 01:33:28 you switch sides. You're long Jamaica because you're hoping the US is falling against the Jamaican. So you're shorting the US. So whichever one you're in, you're shorting the other. If you want to short
Starting point is 01:33:39 and you want a market where you can short, easily, because Jamaica, we can't short stocks. As easily. As easily right now when the exchange sort of themselves and put that in implements that ensure but if you want a shorting market then forex might be a thing I'm not saying to go they trade it and but if you
Starting point is 01:33:57 have reasonable confidence of where how the exchange rate will move over a longer period like the three months or one month you say boy right now jmb pressuring the thing there then it'd be a good thing to buy and sell and i think a lot of people are more informed about fx movement than stocks oh no doubt because one is simpler it's right in front of you yeah it, it's one pair. Versus I have to go find opportunity on the market. But you know my love stocks, because I think I've made a lot more money than a lot of people that have been doing the FX game. Yeah, and I'm sure people are saying,
Starting point is 01:34:35 no, you don't understand FX. FX people make money. And of course, I don't think people realize. I know for me, how I speak, but many people, especially industry people oftentimes i know i sound like i don't know what i'm talking about i sound like i know a little thing and i deliberately don't ever try to sound more like i know more than one i've never had to prove that i know nothing in my life i mean if i have to prove it i show it i'm i'm good but also to prove it to
Starting point is 01:35:03 the industry people you have to speak like the industry people I corrected on my tweet the other day what did you say? actually I'm not wrong in the person for saying it because what I did say was incorrect? it was incorrect what did you say? my tweet my pinned tweet is the interest I've gained on the stock market
Starting point is 01:35:19 has outpaced my salary basically but on the stock market you don't gain interest ah but I said it like that because i know people understand it as interest i can speak for the people but i get you right here it's funny i don't i don't i speak for the people way less than randy does but so that's why you get way less flack yeah um but that's the short but i don't know if i want a conversation then i really do have to speak for the people because other people are new to it and they really want to get into it
Starting point is 01:35:50 and i think i took that take that for granted when i was coming into it i did have a lot of industry terms and it was how i schooled that allowed you to get into it but you did already know a lot of stuff yeah i go school thought of it thought finance and then work and then work i went into an investment house talking to the analyst talking i was right in the place for me to i was in a i was in the space already for me to acquire that jargon knowledge yeah yeah yeah but more around the use terms i don't know i'm dropping a term and i've got to search it yeah sometimes it won't make it so like yeah i mean when i'm talking to the public yeah the public i keep it i keep it low yeah but the terms have their uses so mds
Starting point is 01:36:34 we just got through mds latest results so those are hot and we talked about pulse pulse and at five dollars nice but pulse funny enough i said that I thought they're still undervalued their PE right now is $12 versus the average market the market average PE
Starting point is 01:36:51 is 29.57 as of today so it's half the PE half the PE of the market yeah and you know
Starting point is 01:36:58 what I had done I had said that I would look at these numbers but I remember that PE you want to talk
Starting point is 01:37:02 about PE you can talk about PE if you want I'm not touching that people get enough drama PE is one of my favorite topics not necessarily talk to a lot of the market participants that are in industry um they like to
Starting point is 01:37:20 give p.e flat flat meaning flack flack oh they try to say, oh, PE is a bad metric or my favorite one. The US not run upon PE, why we do it? Okay, let me put that to rest. PE is heavily used in developed markets and the US specifically. Look at any valuation. Look at anybody that, the analysts in the US actually consider them to be proper, really good analysts, a lot of them. Because they dig way deeper into what's happening
Starting point is 01:37:51 with companies and industries than what we do out there. A lot of it because they have a lot of places where they can apply the research, a lot of places where the research is there for them. Like somebody is randomly tracking this metric and it's applicable to an industry uh how much traffic on the road that's what i'm actually attract in jamaica i don't know about that one this is probably some places but not across the country but yeah so they speak about p because as we said if i'm investing in a company i want to know it's profitable. Sorry, I wasn't paying attention. So what I don't track in Jamaica?
Starting point is 01:38:27 Traffic across the country. Traffic on certain roadways. I think they do. But you mean like active? Active and every roadway at every time. Maybe if somebody listens they know the answer that you can tell us.
Starting point is 01:38:39 I don't know. If you can find out point me to that research. Please. You can ask Google for it. No, man. If somebody in Jamaica actively does it,
Starting point is 01:38:47 then I want to know. I want to see that because it can inform other decisions that we can make on the market. Yeah. But yes.
Starting point is 01:38:54 Yeah. I can understand. I know where you're coming from with that. I won't say that one. But the traffic management system, somebody handles traffic. But they know the traffic
Starting point is 01:39:04 on Northwood Boulevard at Exxon over this month i do not i want i want to find that's something a lot of business america my bridge was telling me about it but the thing there the traffic trackers this thing in the road and they track but those are in jamaica also you know the sensors but how widespread well i in jamaica because the sensors are anyway the light the light um the light stoplights are and there aren't that many stoplights especially once you leave the the the if you do if you're even talking for which is not really it's not being done please point me to it i really are no i maybe one of the people because what i'm finding out these days that we have a lot of obscure listeners who really especially episodes with just you and me like this one that's where the people are really into the podcast and they
Starting point is 01:39:53 they link you have people come to me at bars all people come down the road yeah now weird i don't know i never want to recognize me by my voice more than once people did it on my face because I was the only picture on Twitter but really
Starting point is 01:40:09 people just hear the voice and I'm like wow alright that is wow wow wow wow
Starting point is 01:40:18 because I deliberately kept the podcast like I don't throw up a picture with every episode I keep it just the logo and i don't begin the dagger and somebody we were at the table yes and i would go over and say
Starting point is 01:40:32 because they say oh let me say randy bridgeton introduced us to his friend and then say who i'm sir randy i'm so nice to meet you and i'm so from the podcast look weird voice yeah i didn't know you at all in terms of looks you're right i didn't i didn't have a question people don't see a lot a girl was standing up and you were over talking some guys and then i spoke to the server and by the term i turned up i'll pick up i'm bad with names i didn't get into it you're you're really nice in approach i appreciate that so big up you let me know let me know if if you hear this i think her name was yannick but yeah she she said she turned on and said oh you're the night right i think it's the voice cut out she never said anything until i spoke the girl i was
Starting point is 01:41:16 sitting sitting right yeah oh wow i'm supposed to serve on turn on so you're the night right more than one people said that i know about the voice it's like ah school so you say you need to talk some good reach oh yeah um all right guys so that's the end of episode 14 part one of a two-part series like i said we'll let you know when part two goes up and of course we'll tell in the beginning of part two that if you want to catch up you listen to part one if you have the time and then part two. But putting the two of them together, I wasn't going to put you guys necessarily through more than three hours of listening. Not that I don't think the content was good. I do think it was good.
Starting point is 01:41:55 I do think it has good gems. And the second part, I can tell you, we got even deeper. We got deeper into some companies. We actually bring up some financials. We talk the way we usually talk. So I enjoyed it, but I didn't want to force anybody through that long of listening right now. Hope you enjoyed it.
Starting point is 01:42:09 Hope there were actual gems in there to all of you because I think so and I know Danai thinks so, but I don't know if everybody thinks so. So feel free to give me the feedback at RTRO on Twitter or you can also do it directly to the podcast account, which is at earnings underscore season or Danai, which is at hdanai, or Danai, which is at hdanai. Let us know. Hope you liked it. Tell us if you do. Tell us if you didn't. Tell us the
Starting point is 01:42:30 stuff you want to hear in the future, and look out for more. This is Earnings Season. Thank you.

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