Earnings Season - Gem Calling

Episode Date: April 23, 2020

This week @RTRowe channels his best Motty Perkin's impersonation and delivers a bonus for you listeners.He answers a few listener’s questions about investing in general, portfolios and of course he gives his views on a few stocks including $JPS.ja, $MAILPAC.ja, $JMMB.ja, $INDIES.ja, $AMG.ja and many others. Thank you to Johnathon South, Andrew, and Matthew Hughie for participating in this live session. Special thanks to Gabrielle and her Mom for the boss question around COVID-19 and Jamaica’s recovery and to Dayan for finding the path way ahead of the curve.Come for the Gems, hear some questions answered, maybe even some of yours.Enjoy!Contact Us Here 📧 [e-mail] Follow us on Twitter here 📱 www.twitter.com/Earnings_Season 🔗Links🔗 EveryMickle Stock Calendar - www.everymickle.com/testcal 🔊Shout Outs🔊 @drepigglesworth, @ChrisfromUWI @Guruintraining @dayan876 ★ Support this podcast ★

hi guys welcome to earning season the podcast from every michael.com where each week we talk about stocks finance money investing really anything in the business world that we find interesting i'm your host randy rowe on twitter i'm at rt raw and as you can hear there's no deny this week there's no deny this week because i actually wasn't even sure if we're going to be able to get you an episode this week so i had actually planned to just allow last week's episode the one with the top striker shan listen if you have not listened to that episode yet go and listen to that episode that's somebody talking quite plainly about the kind of gains that

they've made in a down market big up shan again for that top striker shan if you haven't heard it go and listen to it if you have heard it however you might enjoy this episode if you haven't heard any of it before and why i say if you haven't heard any of this episode before. Is because this episode. Is something that quite a few of you participated in. Now a couple weeks ago. Danane and I had a Zoom call. That we held. And we sent out invites for anybody who was interested.

To just sign up. Come in on the Zoom call. And you could be a part of that episode. Thank you to everybody who participated. The episode went really, really well. And just to thank the people for it, I said I'd stick around after the episode was done in the Zoom call and just answer some questions that people had.

So what you're about to hear is a good segment of that Q&A session. Now, it starts out in the middle of a question, but once you listen listen it'll be pretty clear to you you know you'll get it from context and big up to the people who stuck around for it it was pretty late and you'll hear that you hear the tiredness in my voice you'll hear me mention the fact that is after two or you know a little after three or minutes or three in the morning but i am impressed by the fact that so many people still stuck around and asked questions and other people are stuck around and listen for the answers to those questions and maybe what they could hear. I really hope that it helped those people and I hope that listening to it might help you if you're interested.

Now, I mentioned the tiredness and the time because in addition to hearing it in my voice, you'll also notice that. I mean, I don't know if anybody else gets like this, but sometimes when I'm tired, I get testy, I get a little cagey. And in this situation where I'm always ultra careful, especially when I'm doing anything with the public, you know, you hear the carefulness coming out in a couple of my answers. Especially, I think, one with a a gentleman i'm trying to remember his name his name was jordan um jordan jordan if you're hearing this send me an email i feel like i never i never gave you the justice that you deserved because you were pretty brave to come and ask a question and i really should have um have tried to to allow you to get it out i'm listening to it and i didn't really like it i mean answer question, but I can understand you being a little nervous.

Sometimes I forget that when I do things like this, the people who participate are a lot more nervous than I might realize. So Jordan, if you're hearing this, link me. Email is randy at evermickel.com. Just send me an email. I think I'll send you either a huge growth discount or a ticket to grow um

but yeah we had this episode and i just thought it was something that you guys should really hear the carefulness as i say comes out um and the policing including the policing of the call and the self-policing and you'll realize why it's me trying not to have anybody ask me any and the self-policing and you'll realize why it's me trying not to have anybody ask me any overt investment advice or investment questions and i definitely don't want to cross that line and give it to them right um but it was such a good lesson for me to be in that situation because the lesson there is that when sometimes when you over police people you lose any benefits that you might get um and that might be a good message to the government i think the government is doing a bad job but i couldn't help but drop that one

since we're all under curfew um having said that however i really hope that you you you listen and enjoy this episode there is a section in it that i mean you can hear the joy not just from me but from like everybody else was on the call and i don't want to spoil it for you but it's really really good um and yeah i think i've said enough i don't want to say too many more things i will say one last thing however um a couple of episodes we have mentioned that there is an every maker stock calendar and a lot of people have dn me asking where's the stock calendar where's the stock calendar which is you know funny because every episode that we've mentioned it in just like this episode we also say

check the show notes for the link to the stock calendar you know um but as you know people hear it the message same time nobody goes and checks the link and so i have to turn around and go and dig it up and give them or a lot of times i'm not in a place or time or a candidate anyway all of this rambling is to say that to try and help that if you're hearing this if you care about every mickle stock calendar if you want to ensure that you get some of the the information that is on the calendar and what's on the calendar is the dates that results are going to come out the dates for agms um anything around the stock world that's interesting i simon is having uh stocks on the rocks that's at guru guru in training underscore on twitter he's having stocks on the rocks and you know put

events like that into the calendar try to put like when i have my grow events to the calendar so people can know ahead of time there's a lot of stuff if it's useful for you if you think it's something that you could benefit from feel free to go and get it now i always tell people that the links are in the show notes and the links to the calendar this calendar should be in the show notes but obviously as i said a lot of people listen and they still ask me or they say it's not working so here are the two important things about it one i have put a link to the stock calendar and it's a google calendar so if you use google calendar on your phone or if you have google calendar on your phone or your computer you will be able to look in your calendar see

your regular stuff that you have scheduled but you'll also see the stock stuff and it'll be colored color coded and everything so you'll know what they are so the first point is i have made the calendar as freely available as i can by putting a link to it on my website so that link and i'm going to read it out here since not everybody checks the show That link is www.everymickle.com slash T-E-S-T as in test, Cal, C-A-L as in Cal. So that's everymickle.com slash testcal. And the testcal is all one word obviously it's for test cal calendar i want to say test calculator so it's evermickel.com slash test cal go there from a computer go there from a laptop go there from maybe your ipad not that you can't go there

from your mobile phone but google doesn't allow you to add a new calendar from your mobile you have to go there from a computer you'll see it and then you'll get option you click it and you'll see links there to click to add that calendar to your google calendar go there from a computer that's the way it works after that it will work from your phone but the very first time you're adding a calendar you have to go to it from your computer. Can I stress it enough? Which was the second thing. The second point is that you need to go there from a computer.

No, I have definitely spoken enough. You guys have heard more than enough. And I do not want another long episode. This one is nice and short, but hopefully nice and useful. I've given it enough preamble. So I'll just let you go straight into it. You'll hear me start in the middle of a conversation, a middle of a question,

but with context clues, it's pretty clear what's happening. And then after that, it just rolls. You'll just understand everything that's happening there. If you don't, feel free to send a message, some feedback to us, and I hope you enjoy it. All right.

So this is earning season again this is randy row again and i want you guys to listen to this episode enjoy leave the feedback and yeah see you in a bit and i don't and i don't mean i don't mean because I'm not a financial advisor and I'm not that's not why it's because I can't help you feel more if I give you the confidence then is really my confidence I'll end in you right and if things switch it's not that okay this was off or I need to adapt the situation is Randy say. I can't do what Randy says. So I can't tell you why you should have confidence in MailPack, but I can tell you that you should probably have a method of investing

that is comprehensive and a strategy that allows you to constantly stop and assess where you were or where you are and where you want to go. You bought MailPack, why did you buy it in the first place? Because of the growth prospects. What did you want from it? I was looking at it more of a, well, my long term would have been, you know, five years at least. In five years?

Yeah. What did you want from it in five years at least so in five years yeah how was it what did you want from it in five years um exponential growth at least 300 plus percent so you wanted 300 from mailback in the very least which I want actually more but in the very least 300 plus percent sorry you wanted 300 plus percent from mailpack in the very least and your time is five years yeah and you're not alone I know a whole heap of people who have that very same sort of goal in mind and timeline in mind. Actually the five year timeline is very, very popular.

What I'm doing right now is I'm looking just That's from an IPO. Yeah, you bought it from IPO, yes? I bought from IPO, I bought more at 190, I bought some more just now at 135. All right, that's cool. No man, I'm not knocking you. I just wanted to get a good little idea of where you were.

You wanted 300% at least. Mailpack has given you the opportunity to get 160% or 260%. I went as high as 2.6. Yes. All right. So the second point I'm going to raise now, you said that they're not competing. You said that you're kind of wavering in it

because of the competition that's happening now and a lot of people coming up. You quoted Quick Cart, the launch from my girl from Delivery Service, where she's doing something nice. I rate that. That's cool, right? Yeah. Two points here, two major points.

One is this. Did you expect them to not have any competition? No, no, definitely not. I expected more competition. I think my major problem is that their response to the competition or their response to the situation has not

taken advantage of the situation is what I'm getting at. Alright, so I'm going to come to that one. There's so. All right, so I'm going to come to that one. There's so much in that, but I'm going to give you another one. It touches the original point of yours. Five years, 300% growth. Why are you asking me about the stock four months later?

Because I think what they do know, not just them, a lot of companies, but specifically them what they do know compared to what certain players in the market are doing now can really affect how the general public view them versus the competition for years to come. So if somebody's first impression in getting a delivery service from any supermarket is Quick Cart and they love it, just using Quick Cart as an example, and they love it because that was the first one

that popped up as an option to them. And Quick Cart might be that option that they use for the next year, three four or five years versus a mail pack who they've been with price smart for how long now and you're going price smart there's no signage from mail pack there's no there's hardly any marketing no sponsored ads no anything on social media says like it just feels as if yet you are here talking about them and i know exactly what you're talking about them and i haven't used mailpack in maybe 15 years so i know about it and i see people in the chat asking about the price mapping i know about the price mapping

so i haven't gone to price mat in a long long time either so so i'm saying all of that to say i'm going to use one more example i try i try to bring it to simpler things so anybody can get that and get it. You have a child, a 10-month-old child, a 6-month-old child, and they vomit on themselves. That means that you're not going to make them pick which high school they need to go in their 10? Or in their 5? You're not going to make them go to school? No, obviously not, no. school? No, obviously not, no. So if you have a five-year timeline for MailPak, why are you letting it go in month three or four? Why are you fretting? And you're fretting on a stock that is what? Currently up what percent, Chris? 60% from IPO in less than a year? Yeah.

So you're fretting that they're doing well? Fretting is not the word. It's meeting my expectation. What are your expectations? You told me expectations is 300% in year five. By this measure, they're way ahead of your projection. They could pause for a year and do this again and still be on track to meet your expectation. So I think the real problem isn't that there's anything wrong with MailPack.

I think the real problem is that there's something wrong with your expectation. And you know, the truth is also, I don't think there's anything wrong with the expectation. Personally, I don't think 300% on MailPack is a bad deal. In five years, I think in five years, it might be even higher it might be much higher might be five but you would be uncomfortable if it stays at two dollars up until year four right and then you jump out and you'd miss the jump to five dollars in year five right because again it's not mail pack that issues with is with them you quoted a lot of good points for mail pack you quoted competition but if you think about it

the competition has always been there it's been there for years right you knew about action for a long time mail pack was very popular and it fell in popularity and then it kind of held that kind of strain that is strong you said i don't have a response to what quick cart is doing but my g they just created a group and listed themselves on the jamaica stock exchange they did that a couple months ago yeah so that is their response they just got themselves a crap load of money and now they're starting to gear up and you're telling me that we have we have everybody on this call knowing about mail pack but you just pointed out that there's no signage in these stores there's no ads there's no billboards that's something to me like the man i'm not really

wasting their money on ineffective marketing you see how you start you start you have to change how you look at a company no yeah now i'm not saying that mail pack itself is bad right i'm not saying that it's great either i've seen things from that i think might be um might be a bit optimistic but i've also seen them being very clear. You said that they're not rising to the challenge of what? Sometimes when you lead the pack, you know, you can't make everybody else give you trouble, right? To this day, NCD Cap Market does not have a Twitter account.

Guess who the biggest broker in Jamaica is also in terms of money you see me it's not the giant can't always make everybody turn them away and mail pack in their space has to act like a giant because anybody and them cousin can start a shipping company in fact most of our cousins probably have started shipping companies that's just how it is everybody have a shipping company freight forwarder use my florida address so if imagine if they're going to respond to every single person who is doing that they can't do it they have never said that they're the cheapest but they do try to do what they do the best is bringing it back to brokerages i see you've heard

us say on this podcast the very same thing all the time i talk about mayberry as a broker mayberry is not the cheapest broker but people love them you know when you talk to some people aborigines who use jmv they man them will never switch from that because the service is so great. Even when the service is terrible, meaning the actual service is terrible, but the customer care might be good. Or maybe they're fine. They're just like, every time you walk in, there's a bunch of hot girls in the office

and them feeling can't get through, so they might try something. Or maybe for an older person, they're like, when they go to the office, people give them the attention and then they don't get any rest. The point is everybody has everything that works for them. And MailPack, I think, has shown,

and this is my view here externally, I haven't spoken to anybody at a company in a good little while. So they've shown that one, they believe in tech because they've been doing things that everybody else follow afterwards. They believe in longevity. they've been doing things that everybody else follows afterwards. They believe in longevity.

They're taking their time. You are the one who are selling me on them believing in managing their spend heavily, meaning they're managing their ad spend because you say you don't see all these things in PriceMath. You don't see any billboards but you know about the service though you just think it's not going far or fast enough and I might agree with you if I'm a mail pack shareholder let me see if I'm a mail pack shareholder today as a fellow shareholder I agree with you that they're not moving fast enough for each of us for for our timelines but we can't afford them and them the man they're moving

properly and you're you're up 60 so i think that you need to know what is that you want and when you want it and truly believe in it because if you truly believe in the 200 in five years you'd be happy that you had 60 in in in in four months four or five months something like that yeah um but i mean to be honest i was modest about the 300 but yeah okay you wanted to all of a sudden everybody want to reach bridging no no no but no i get it i'm not my faulty ambition my lord i'm not telling nobody to bond and try and live poor it's cool it's cool to want all the money as quickly as possible but on the mail pack point i'm not going to knock your smaller points. So yes, they do have competition. Yes, stiff competition. Everybody know about rocket ship also. But

the giant is a giant. And I'll tell you this, a point that I like to say to my friends and I say it for myself too. Believe in an industry versus believing in a giant right banking is great but NCB is still a giant and NCB didn't have to be a monopoly in order to still be NCB in fact some would say that it's better for them to not be a monopoly from their point of view because of what it has allowed them to grow into right when they can't hold some shares anymore and they need them have place to go, maybe we can lend a competitor some money and let them buy some shares from us and then we are now free to get something else. And we couldn't do that if we never had a good competitor. Or we never had so

many competitors that it's actually good for us to speak to some versus others, right? So I just want you to think in those terms. Competition itself is not necessarily a bad thing. In fact, oftentimes competition is gratifying and it's good because it means that there is definitely an industry there. Right?

If you decide to, you want this, think about this. You decide tomorrow, say, yo, may I wear the red pants? You know, you wear the red pants and everywhere you look people look at them laughing every time you turn around and not look at them stop laugh and you go work and the same thing happen you come home and nobody ever wears red pants to

that place or any color pants that place again you kind of figure out say okay this is weird right but if you wear red pants and tomorrow somebody wear blue one day after that somebody wear red and somebody has come with a different shade of red and red, then you know it worked, right? Because you want to spur the market. Same, I use taxes as the example. If taxes never make money, there wouldn't be so many taxes on the road, you know? The fact that there's so many taxes on the road is proof that taxes make money. And it's why it's verification that the biggest taxier, the person who owns the most, is making the most money, assuming that they're running the business well.

In the same way, if MailPack was still just them alone out there, no competition, then maybe you'd say, yo, maybe this freight forwarder thing don't really make no sense because the country is not doing it and nobody will come and join them.

But the fact that we have QuickCart coming now and people are excited, the fact that Rocket Ship is here and Rocket Ship is eating the food of um ship me who was eating the food of mail pack who was getting them food eating also by a whole heap of other people that is an industry that that's that is proof of actual value people need the service so you know that there is actual industry there so don't make the competition knock it the competition is verification of it being a good thing.

Competition means that, and it's in a new industry where people have to order online and pay online and all of that. It's in a completely new industry. And in that industry, mailpack are acting like local giants. So shift your perspective, especially as somebody who actually has a five-year outlook. And if you truly have a five-year outlook,

you can't let go of the thing in month three, my lord. I'm all shaky. No, definitely I wasn't considering lifting it. I was just, I was contemplating and still contemplating making an even bigger play

in it or something else. That is kind of where I was and i'm going with that so you want me boost your confidence in that to see if it's worth the other thing i'd tell you to tell me i think but i talked to you for more than long enough so anybody else want to jump in thank you let me bring back up this chat window anybody else anybody else? Hello? Matthew?

Yes, Matthew. Yeah. Quick question. Do you think that the 20 stocks that JSC wanted to list this year will be affected by or how it will be affected by this COVID

scenario? I mean, we've already seen proven suspense. What do you think the outlook will be for the rest of these companies? Hi, Matthew. Matthew, you try to skip past the introduce yourself part. It's a tax I'll have to pay. Oh, sorry. All right, then.

I'm Matthew Huey. I'm currently living in Japan as an assistant language teacher. I've been investing for, what, three years now? My first job was with Synco. Yeah.

I don't know what else I should say. You know, are you the Impiggles on Twitter? Yes, I do. I'm so sorry. Pick up piggles. Tell him I said hey the next time you see him. And stay safe. Yeah.

I don't know. Sorry. You see, that's why you shouldn't diss people in Japan. God, God. Mark. I don't know what will happen with the 20 stocks because I don't know what the 20 stocks are people list for different reasons for some people if you have a list you just have a list if we have some people actually some people have contract signed long ago you know that

include in it that you will have to list by X date okay lots of these things have times in them but I don't know literally don't know but that's like crying over milk that hasn't even spilled yet you don't even buy it and reach home to the fridge um i like to just look at what's in front of me and and i take that to say that's all so let me see if i can send a whole heap of people to bed that's also what i think about jps all right so if you are thinking if you should be saving up your money because JPS is coming and JPS is coming, I can't tell you what to do with

your money. Speak to a licensed financial advisor. But I'm not going to be putting down my money for JPS because think of all the people who put down their money for TransJamaica. And that's not to say that those people are bad, but eat the food that's in front of you the jcf atr stocks in terms of companies they have a whole heap of things to

invest on every single in every single day and some of them are at great prices and there are plays in others that are actually at great prices but we won't know that they're at great prices yet um yeah so i'm not worried about that. In terms of realistically though, who knows, it might slow some down, it might speed some up. You figure the fire at Fesco might have stopped the Fesco listing. No, because clearly we see them bounce back right about now.

Yeah, but they're always bouncing. Everybody bounces back. These days, you can't call any money if you cough. Yeah, I do. Well, maybe not cough, but cough. Maybe not cough but yeah. So I can't say for the 20, it depends and each company is viewed on their own individual thing. Somebody else was asking something, I hope I answered your question Matthew. You did, thank you. Alright, no problem. Hello, evening this is Jordan South, I'm looking at the thing now. Jordan South?

Jonathan South. Jonathan South, sorry. Sorry, Jonathan, I'm tired. Yeah, man, no problem. So, in terms of introduction, I'm a content creator. I've been in Western for probably a year. Sorry, what's a content creator? Video creator.

Video creator. Video creator. Video creator. Video creator. Video creator. Video creator. Video creator. Video year sorry what's a content creator video production photography yeah this you do you do wait name like motion graphics? No, that's not about that. Just actual videography and actual photography? Yeah.

Okay, cool. So my question was regarding how to rebalance portfolio in terms of, let's say I bought, I had to debunk a stock before everything fell. Jonathan, two things. One, I can't go jail for nobody I don't know how Carter is doing it Let me help you out I doubt that you know more

About this specific law than I do And neither of us know more Than the FSC or any of those people That's going to give me a headache So trust me, don't ask me the heavy Question that I know you want to ask me The second thing which seems contrary to the first Is this goes a lot easier headache right so trust me don't ask me the heavy question that i know you want to ask me the second thing which seems contrary to the first is this goes a lot easier if you just tell your numbers

straightforward and talk about stocks straightforwardly instead of trying to find like a stock that kind of matches the situation but i don't say to people don't hear i mean just talk about specific stocks rebalancing portfolios also you want me to skip your question so I cause it's kind of late I must keep your question because I get it all the time what was your goal when you put together the portfolio you didn't really have one right most people don't it's just so you I want to get into stocks I won't put some money down you know I won't get down to this great train right I was just wondering if there was really, I just wanted to know if there was a specific

thing, what's the word, a calculation to say, let's say that you're 30% down on this. I understand that, Jordan. Sorry, I keep calling you Jordan. Sorry, I understand that, Jonathan. I'm actually, I'm skipping ahead for the question because I'm answering the question that you're actually asking, right? And all right, sorry, tell me if I have it right your question here is I am heavily into three stocks and I'm light into maybe four right and my overall portfolio is down double digits 35 percent down and the things that I'm heaviest in are actually the things that are down heavier is there a way way, is there a calculation? Is there something I can run on my portfolio, my stocks in order to see how best to rebalance

to get the maximum gains or to get back to zero? Does that make sense? Partially. What's the part that I'm missing? I'm trying to basically say... All right, tell me. I'll shut up and listen. Sorry.

I want to know when do know for you personally when we would you compete a seller stop or you go and carry so let's say I bought a CD 100,000 CD at dollar, I mean $192, and then it fell down to $152 as it is, and you bought probably $100,000 worth of this. Would you sell or would you try to average down? That's the question I'm asking. And we get back to my original answer, which is the same answer. So, it's gold. It's gold-based. Boom. All right. Of course, there are other things that I look on. Okay. I mean, yeah so it's gold it's gold all right of course the other things that i look on the other there's okay i mean yeah it's gold based more about it come come to grow when i

have it thank you what is cool anybody else hello andrew here who andrew hi andrew uh question Andrew here. Who? Andrew. Hi, Andrew. Question. Tell the people about you, Andrew. Oh, well, all right. So I'm here. New to this. Just started investing a few months ago. Mommy.

How long ago did I start investing? Hold on, Andrew. I think mommy will have to answer her first. of it hold on Andrew I think I'm gonna answer her first my name is Gabrielle I'm 10 years old and I've been investing for both I know no no no at this point Andrew food get sorry that Go through, Gabriel. Sorry, Andrew. That's fine. That's fine. That's fine.

So even though you said all of the sectors of the market will bounce back, which sector of the market do you think will take the longest to bounce back? Jesus. And it's a child shall lead us all. Where were you at the start of this episode, miss? I was here given all of me Oh that's good I'm so sorry for having you up this late

Let me answer very quickly I think tourism is going to take the longest You know That's such a good question No no no It might not be tourism I want to give you a good answer I think tourism has the capacity to surprise us

I think we are not I think we might be discounting how long people are locked inside for in terms of what it means to them so not in terms of the time being too long right but in terms of mentally it is too much and people feel cooped up and i think there might be you know it's almost like your mother locked you in the house for three hours so when you go outside like you go crazy I think there might be a heavy bit of heavy travel I think we might discount that so there might actually be a spring like this thing lasts two three months and I might be optimistic there I think I think tourism might surprise us but it doesn tourism surprises us, I'm not sure what else can hurt us, right? Okay.

Yeah, but if that don't work, you can just say tourism. You're welcome, and thank you for listening. No problem. I'm a mother of babes. Oh, wow. Ten years old, damn. Right? Keep investing, youngster. Yes damn right keep investing youngster yes please keep investing uh sorry yes this is andrew again yeah man yo all right so big shoes to fill andrew yeah i mean after that right because i i didn even feel like I answered that question

properly that's such a good question like I'm going to think about it for the rest of the night it's a really good question though because as you're right but let's say you have to think about you know getting released from prison and running up on down no I don't have to get I don't have to think about that I don't know what you heard as a question i draw so all right so i always hear you talk about the p e ratio um are they any other ratios you use i barely ever hear you talk about like price to book and why um or talk about them because because of how it is that i analyze companies um i i look on companies i look on each company as its own thing, every single one of them. And I don't go, this is like that, select M is like

select F, I don't do that. Every single one of them, I look at every single report that comes out, I look at every bit of news that I can see about it and sometimes I don't for a long time and I never have to catch up when I have to get myself refreshed I literally go back and check the last few reports if it's like if the last one I saw was three quarters ago I go and check the fourth one and maybe check the year before and I catch myself up to see what's happening with the company. Why I say that? Sorry, I said last part of your question again, Andrew.

Why is it that you use PE over PV? PE over PV. Okay, yeah. So how I look at those companies, it means that I have to know what each company actually does how it functions i have to have like a mental model in my mind i was a mental model of how fontana works of how trans jamaica works of how jamaica teas work of how lumber works of how keywords blah blah blah you get me and the majority of the companies on the market are geared around making profit and making intense profit if they can right to me the PE ratios I understand the PE ratio

it is a measure of well in plain terms it is a measure of the current price per share to the earnings per share right in other words it's how much am i willing to pay to get x amount of earnings right now assuming that i was getting those earnings directly right and then i'm going to mix in another concept here now you know how they say that investing is that science and an art you've never heard this before yes all right yes so the the the science part if we call the science part the ratio pe the art part now is what i do with the pe right now everybody who pays attention to pe ratios is a human being the last time i checked and those people have a certain set of ways in which they buy meaning oftentimes when a company has a high PE the market reacts a certain way to it but it's not just a high PE because I

found out whenever you look to see what these companies are doing the ones that have high PEs there's generally something else behind it right right? And I look at what those things are. Give me an example of a high PE company generally. Anyone? Anyone? I don't know any off the top of my head right now. Okay. GSE Lab.

138ps 138 138 not 138 138 doesn't have a high PE I think somebody just want me to talk about 138 more Kingston Warps JSC Kingston Warps

Kingston Warps has a high PE it normalizes 24 times. Trans-Jamaica is one. But yeah, that's a good example in terms of something to talk about. But yeah, Kingston Wharves, 23. So you said that's a high PE.

24, sorry, 24 times as a high PE. I found that whenever companies have high PEs the market reacts to them in a certain way and when you look behind that second order think when you look behind that to see what exactly it is that is leading that is going on with these companies that have high PEs you hear people um you realize certain things are happening oftentimes it's like junior market companies that just come people people are really excited about it and the share price was right and the demand was right and boom, boom, boom, it fly, right?

And all of a sudden it has a high PE, which means that people are paying a lot more for less earnings. However, you often realize that a lot of these companies have high earnings potentials, meaning you can't really use the previous PE and judging because these guys are making huge increases in profits every quarter, every year, right?

So like lab, lab doubled, it beat its best year ever last year. And in the first quarter results, we just saw again, like half of last year's numbers in one quarter,, like half of last year's numbers in one quarter, more than half of last year's numbers in one quarter. The quarter before that, we saw a beat in the quarter, same period of the year before that, way ahead.

So this is a company that is growing, which is why you might be okay with high PEs. So why do I pay attention to PEs? Because on the Jamaican stock market, we have been, over the decades, I've been watching it. Predictable. Over a large scale scale exceedingly predictable love it hate it call it all kind of things quote buffett till you're blue as long as a company make heavy profit consistently its share price will fly it

is now for the first time that you've seen it it dropped things like nB falling, but then again, we've never seen the situations that we're seeing now, right? No, having said all that, I still pay attention to PE more because the market pays attention to PE more. If the market were to actually start paying attention to PB, guess what I would

start watching? There we go. And if they start watching the color outside on a rainy day, guess what I would start watching there we go and if they start watching the color outside on a rainy day guess what i would start watching yeah i look at a whole heap of things you know i remember the first time i had to go through dcf just because i if these guys know it i need to know what the hell it is and this is years ago and i hated it and i've bumped up against it time and time and time again over the years and i had to learn it when i got to the core of that thing and i'm near a lot of things in the core of that thing when you understand the core of it that is just uh

i think it was the guy that asked a question two questions ago it is a codified way of getting a more complex answer that your mind is able to get you which is a very fancy way of saying that at the end of the day somebody picks a number and it works based on that number and you can edit what you get at the end by just adjusting a couple of numbers manual and there's nothing in the process that stops that you're supposed to actually saying all of that to say you use the thing that is most applicable to the market that you're in and the security that you're reviewing.

Right? So if somebody is a profit chaser, I measure them using profit. Their ability to chase profit. their ability to chase profit if somebody is a long term dividend payer and they tell you up front that they want to be a long term dividend payer we plan to be around for a very long time we still want to get profitable

we're going to make a low slow profit for a very long time and for that what we need is good debt stable economy great base and high cash then I judge them based on their based on their ability to have a good base steady economy great base and high cash a good example a great example is QWI, who I still personally look at from a PE basis, but the entire market watches for QWI from a book value basis. And so I watch it also from a book value basis because that's what the market pays attention to.

I pay attention to what the market pays attention to i pay attention to what the market pays attention to um and so i pay attention to pe because the market moves predictably with pes you don't believe me check your calendar for two years from now and check ncb's share price okay check jay mcb's share price in six months. Yeah, so the market has to personally not like you or have something else happening for them to ignore straight profit. But you make straight heavy profit hitting that bottom line quarter after quarter, year after year with high cash on the books.

Oh, God damn love you. And then you pay a dividend on top of that. Oh, God damn love you. They'll go to bed dividend on top of that, oh, God damn love you. They'll go to bed for you. Trust me. Well, don't trust me. Trust Uncle Michael Lee Chin. All right, respect.

No problem. I'm going to take, I don't want to, O. Johnson? Hello? Oh, no, no, no. It's okay. Don't wake up Gabrielle again.

Gabrielle, go to your bed, please. No, it's okay, Gabrielle. Sorry, I didn't mean to call you. I didn't realize it was the ears. No problem. Have a good night. You too. All right, bye-bye.

Somebody else was saying something hey Randy what's up hello Diane yeah which is it it's well if you're going to be correct in terms of origin it would be

Diane from from a Well, if you're going to be correct in terms of origin, it would be Diane from an accuracy perspective. But as you know, in our country, nobody ever gets their name pronounced right. So I've grown up and had everybody say Diane. So it doesn't really matter. I answer to both. Oh, God.

I'm so sorry. So I'll say Diane. What's up, Diane? What's your question? Well, one question and two, an observation. In some of my discussions with, and watching certain things on the market I and this is not really this is not related to just a COVID-19 era just generally speaking

and I think I'd asked it sometime in the past too I've never really heard any of your hosts hosts or guests sorry in your um 31 episodes mentioned vmil um and it kind of strikes me as very particular because it's it's a unique stock in the market one and two it's it's um i like it a lot because i like the company because I like the company and the stock in terms of the stability of the stock since it has IPO. But I've never really heard anybody say anything. And the only person who has really said anything to me about it is in a conversation with a key person at Sajikor.

They said, the comment was this, I wish you could buy the whole company instead of just buying the stock in pieces and you know that was the first time I was actually hearing somebody say they actually share some sentiment as to the possibility of this being a great stock over the next three to five years but But during your shows, I've listened to hear more about it and to hear people comment on it and to see if it was a view that I alone have.

But, you know, I've never heard anything. So I'd love to get your take on that one. And number two, God damn. Number two. You're straight clocking in my loud.

Yeah, man. Yeah, I know. I know. I know. But it's, it's, I, I,

go through. Let me hear it. Let me hear it. Yeah. The, the, the other thing is,

um, there are two, there are two stocks. One, one that sank very low at Greece.

I think in terms of price falloff was one of the greatest price falloffs in the market in the last price fall off was one of the greatest price fall offs in the market in the last couple weeks was Indus Pharma and Indus then

rebounded to close the week from $2.45 or $2.43 I'm not sure exactly where but somewhere in the $2.40 I think coming back from a place of $1.25 and it's a company that has no debt I think, coming back from a place of $1.25.

And it's a company that has no debt, basically, virtually debt-free, virtually very profitable. I know they're small and not as good on the market. It's only about 10% of the company. But, you know, I, for the first time, noticed that a lot of persons were chasing Indies in the last couple of days. And I'm not sure if it's because of the news surrounding their purchase of the land to build the business park. But if you really follow Indies, they have always been very, very stable. They're run by a husband and wife team and there are people that I know personally but outside of that, in terms of leadership, which is one of the things I always look at in a

company, if I have confidence in who runs the company then it makes me even more confident than just the average feeling or calculation or ratio or whatever. I believe in people and for this company particularly knowing the person behind it and how serious they are about their business. I'm a little surprised that it has lagged on the market for such a long time without any real energy behind it. Meaning you don't see a lot of trades of the stock. You know it may have a great price, $3, $2.90, $2.80 on an average day. The volumes are very, very low.

I'd love to, that and Jamtys as well. So I'd love to hear why some companies that are really good in your opinion, as I said, for example, Indies with known debt as a great example, why persons are so afraid of trading those? Is it because they are not, quote unquote, sexy, if you want to use that kind of a word, in appearance or is it something else? I think I'll stop there for now.

I don't know what to say. I think you just wanted to tell us about three companies that you really like. I mean, that sounds cool. Someone has a question, bro, because I don't know what you're asking. No, this question was at the end, which is why nobody don't really talk about those companies. You know, there's so many things like that. I think I can just call this for the night. I'll answer the epistle. I'll call it a night. First of all, what makes VM a unique company?

I call it a night. First of all, what makes VM a unique company? This is me asking you. You said VM was unique. Why is it unique? Diane? Or did he fall asleep? Oh, well. No, I think he said his headphones died, something like that.

His headphones? Just headphones just died, as you said. I don't know what to say. Okay. Well, I need you to answer the question diane i was asking you if um i was asking you what makes vm a unique company just give me one second i'm gonna i'm turning on another set of headphones oh i thought he's to say turn on your computer.

That would have scared me. You're not getting a load. Yeah, I'm here. Yeah, man, I'm back. Sorry about that a while ago. Yeah, Dan, I just want to know what makes you... You said it's a... You said it's a unique company. What makes it unique? Which one?

VMBS. VMIL, sorry. Oh, well, let me okay from in two paragraphs or less yeah um our first paragraph is that um most people misunderstand the stock no man i don't i don't misunderstand the stock i want you to don't tell me what we're doing. No, no, no. You asked me why I said you need to understand. It's misunderstood by the average person on the road. Meaning when people think VMIL, they're thinking VMBS. And normally when you mention that to somebody, you know, it's a lot. I know persons personally who have bought the stuff thinking they're buying a car.

And I'm not realizing it's an investment vehicle that BMW owns. Right. So that's the first thing that though I say it's unique,'s almost like it's it's it's almost like uh people view it like a scotiabank or a ncb or a such a core as a financial entity but not as a portfolio right it's not as a portfolio like a nje or a qwi or um let me help you with more with all your questions all of your problems what moves stock prices why do stock prices move people feelings mostly

that's linked to it I like that one that's a better answer than fundamentals so you know that is people's feelings but why do you have you listened to all our episodes maybe if not all 99 i may have fallen asleep once or twice because i started listening very late but um usually i listen to everything as i as i have done for tonight yeah i'm trying to remember

what's going on about vm we may have edited some out. I mean, but you said that VM hasn't moved. Hasn't VM's share price skyrocketed? Well, it was, what has happened, you know, what's happening now in the- I'm going to say yes or no question. Last year, January 1 versus the price now, including any splits, et cetera, et cetera. Hasn't moved. Well, it went up to $13.50 because it was- From where? any splits, etc, etc? Well, it went up to $13.50 because it was an aggressive pursue on the market

from $9. There was a what? There was a lot of trading No, and I want you to say that exact term again. Which one? About the aggressive move, the aggressive purchasing? Oh, that's what you said.

Okay, I thought you said something about the Q. Oh about the queue oh no no no i was saying last year it changed it up about 1350 or actually this year in january it turned it up to 1350 coming from nine dollars but when you look at a graph of the ml it i feels and then it goes up almost practically then levels out for a long time again and goes up levels out again and when it went up this time in January it's the first time it's actually going up rapidly and not leveling up but then churning back down and that was part of I think the time that Sachikor was making some additional buys in the market of the, I guess, with that plus with the heavy profits coming and the plans for carry land and so forth, made that little window. It sounds to me like you're listing all the things that you like to sound good, but it's

not about listing the things. listing all the things that you like it to sound good but it's not about listing the things no it's it's it's it's you see it sounds good for me but i don't know why for others it's not something they talk about or they look at others in your portfolio it's 50 percent this is not 30 percent that it's almost like a opportunity stock meaning buy and sell, a quick trade thing but not a long play for some of the persons who are not IPO purchasers. Persons who have it from IPO still keep it because it's part of your portfolio. But if you ask them about have you bought anymore since IPO, you're likely to get a no on that answer. Have you bought any since IPO?

I didn't buy at IPO. I bought after IPO. I bought at the last one. Okay. So let me get this straight. This stock, this stock, when did IPO remind me? About two years.

Yeah, 2018? Yeah, somewhere around here. Or 2017? It might have been before. Yeah. It moved from an average of $4 odd, $3 odd, $4 odd. One cycle straight up to $8.

Yeah, and it jumped all the way up to $8. So it gave everybody, it gave those people 100%. Boom. Yeah. It trended all the way, as you said, in January of this year, all the way up to 1186. January 20th, right? And it looked like he was finding a new normal somewhere around you went up to 13 as well man yeah that's intraday but i thought yeah it's

closing okay okay so nine or ten dollars after he was finding a level and it's on the level at around February 24th where something happened well yeah dividend payment was made yes so I guess x date pass so there's a usual dividend drop off so these people would have gotten a dividend payment for a start that was cool but where did they jump out at 695 a year ago it was at three3 odd or $4 odd. It's at $6.95 now and it's so good that you think that you like it very much. And obviously, it's trading. It's one of the heavily traded.

Look at the trading. Look at the volume on it. It trades all the time. I'm not here to preach a stock about whether or not it's good enough. It's obvious that it's good because the share price has performed. I mean, if you want the stock up more, my lord, buy more. Buy it at higher prices.

You're one of those people who think that my voice carries weight in the market and I can move the share prices, so let me get into it. No, no, no, no, no, no. You give me 20 minutes of why the other stocks are good. I could go through all of them. I don't know what you want me to tell you. Nobody's buying stocks right now in the market that aren't either obvious wins. Yeah.

Or. You know what I think? All right. It's not at a one price to go up because I want to keep buying it at the price it is at now at least for another three months or so. So why you come upon the show and ask about it then? You say even we never say nothing about it. Okay, enough said on that one then. No, I'm not hinting at the bank or anything. I don't have to worry about that for the move.

But I'm just saying, if you think it's good, you truly believe it's a good bite. Skin in the game. Yeah, it's just, I don't, you know what? I'm kind of like a gut feeling kind of a person. No, you're not. Because it's into all the things that you just told me. Yeah, but there are things that form the gut feeling.

Yeah. You never hear what I told Chris from you earlier. It starts with a feeling and then we solidify it. You're not doing anything wrong. So your complaint, here's what your complaint sounds like to me at 3am.

Yo, this stuff looks like it's primed to go up. I don't understand this stuff looks like it's primed to go up. You know't understand. This stuff look like it's primed to go up. You know the next thing you're going to say to me? Yo, the stock went up. You've seen it do it twice. It obviously spikes on news and you've named like three things that they've done

that is going to pay out in a little while. As long as it pay out after, we're kind of over. Or we're just used to the coronavirus thing? The money has to go somewhere. Well, true. True. I hear you. I hear you.

Your complaint literally to me is, yo, Randy, I'm sorry. I'm ahead of the curve. I'm sorry. You want me to tell you you're doing the right thing. Yeah, thanks. But I wasn't looking at it from that angle. There's a part of me that has a concern that persons don't,

well, maybe I'm too concerned about what persons are thinking. So maybe I need to filter that part out. Probably that is it. The local market is slow. Get used to that. Slow. Yeah. Take long.

Take long to react to things. People have to them friend tell them friend I'm sure you're sure money man here alright my friend my call is that can call is broke on Friday forget it Friday Monday morning forget next week if I get the market is slow take a long time before you see the effect of things. That is true. NCB announced Guardian, and people like me sit down and wait, must say, two years for the price to move any amount. Okay, okay. Yeah.

And look where it is now. Now we're quarreling about whether or not it's worth it at $150. Look how it dropped to $150. There was a time where $150 was the goal from $160. Well, that's going from $60 to $70. because it dropped to 150 there was a time where 150 was the goal from 160 and once when i was going for 60 and 70 so you can't you can't allow the fact that you are seeing the effect of the market to be something you're complaining about i used to do the same thing and i still complain in some things but all the time that does profit from it yeah the market moves slowly everybody will love VMIL in six months

eight months and then it will jump again to $20 and you'll be like oh god JMNB is below its APO price right now what is there to say to that and JMNB is bigger than it has ever been in its entire life

and it's about to get its biggest one-time payment in Canadian dollars or US dollars, I think. Sent directly into their country right now in the middle of this coronavirus where people need cash on hand. J&B is about to get that. And the price is below its APO price. What you want me to say about that?

Other than every day day a little bit must get bought have you checked those numbers there have been millions in GMMB shares traded on the market over the last since December I watch I watch every single day I review every report every day so I kind of and those financials are stocks that I look at even if i'm not buying them i just look at it i know i know it have the same book that's why i'm up at this time of morning talking to you guys instead of going to my bed which i'm going to do soon um but yeah ring the bell on on on the on the comment on the bell watch that this is and in terms of in terms of companies that do well but they're there i know somebody noted i'm answering my own question i guess in reference to the amount of shares available but i mean

you know there are a few companies that when you look at them generally they they appear very stable and what they're invested in what what they're doing is profitable and stable, but they still don't see, and the share price is not scary. Which company? Just tell me the company. I'm tired. Just tell me the company. I watch the whole market. As I said, look at Indies. What's Indies profit like?

Okay, well, they had some balance sheet write-offs this year, so I think they were looking to put the money this year but still it's not that good. And their PE ratio is not that great. That too. Yeah, so that's the reality of it. But what's planned in terms of works that they're putting in? This market, Brett it's not me making the market though.

I just see it and I know it well but it's not me making the market. I just see it and I know it well, but it's not me at the market. The market don't work that way, even though they're taught that way. But as you are seeing, they're not going out and buying it. Yeah, Indies. But of course, they could come with something big in a Russian home. I suppose Indies is the one selling masks.

Well, if you read their reports last year in this area, you'll realize that they are actually opening a PPE and medical supplies division. I'm aware, but not know. When did they say? This is from last year. They are planning to open this from last year.

When was it to open? In 2020. Yeah, but 2020 is a long year my G we're in the first year of 2020 right now I April just start right first quarter right but that's what I'm saying you're not seeing you're not seeing no no no you're not you're not hearing what I just asked you when when did they say they're going to start doing that they're starting their new sales channels in 2020 i don't have a month you need to find a month welcome to welcome to the edge you actually

know how i hear you talking a lot about the things that i know that you have to look for actually follow up on them yeah when 2020 long you need to know exactly when they do it. Suppose it was January. Suppose they got their first shipment in January. Can you imagine that? Can you imagine they got the biggest first shipment to start off the factory right before coronavirus? That is true. I don't know if the adult, it would be great, but maybe it didn't happen, right? Right. How do you think the AMG people feel seeing that seeing people in price smart piling up tissue knowing that them just like them tissue factory very good but you see going back to indies again

their the nhf contract was not announced on their books last year to be on their books this year so again the city that would have affected last year's profits it doesn't mean that you don't buy the stock you know what i mean and again i'm saying to you you sound to me like somebody who is complaining about realizing that they have found a gem early you're complaining to me about the things that i talk to deny about you get me you're complaining to me that you have that you have made money early that you have this thing is going to be great they're they're on you're literally complaining that they are the market is undervaluing stocks yes just put your money against it if you truly believe it no man that's what i do yeah and has it been working

yeah so far I'm good. What's I'm good? Give me a percentage. Which one? Your portfolio. Oh, overall, no. Down maybe about 15%. Down how much? 50%? No, 15%. 1.5%? Yeah, 1 1 5% over what time well I have well portfolio limit limit limit limit let me put a disclaimer out there I've been I've been buying for eight years so it's hard to say what I started a new portfolio

August 13th last year and that is that is a more what I call a new portfolio August 13th last year. And that is a more, what would I call it, a more dynamic trading portfolio. And that's slightly by 15%. I'm not really selling anything. I'm just buying, buying, buying. And I don't watch daily prices on some of the stocks that I'm buying. I just buy them for whatever it's being sold at because I have a long play on those but overall I would say I am up

over eight years maybe about 400% yeah started out being a lot of Scotiabank about Scotiabank at $20.72 or $20.70 or somewhere around there as my first purchase eight years ago. I just kept going in that kind of like a steady dividends chain. But since last year, I decided to kind of get a little bit more aggressive. I'm getting older, so I have increased income and less time left on this earth. I'd like to kind of be a little bit more aggressive. So I'm taking risks now and probably a financial advisor will tell me to take that risk, you know, 10 years ago or so. I know. You're so like me to me. You're so like me a couple of years ago to me. Yeah.

You're complaining about like like why aren't they seeing this it's so obvious right yeah well i mean i'm not complaining i just it's just curious that no you are it's weird it's weird not really um picking up where the gains are it's weird right like last week i told you to buy is that buy um mail pack at 164 and you know stop telling people what to buy let me let me let me let me give you a tip that i should have learned earlier don't bother yeah because they're not going to know when or why or how and i'm not gonna remember yeah yeah i say yeah the 110 grand to to flip and i say oh bye if you want some picks here, I'll buy it in Hawaii. Oh God, that's a hard lesson to learn, my friend. Don't do that, don't do that.

No, I'm going to work. And I sent him a note yesterday, Friday, and said, hey, check the price on the air pack because the air pack was up like $1.90. Jesus Christ, stop, don't do this. If it was a loan, you could have made that, you know. But, it's how it goes. It's how it goes for them, but don't do that, though though i can tell you don't do that don't do it it's going to end badly for you because you are because

you're watching it so hard and you are able to pay attention more and you have you're developing an innate feeling feel of the market so you can tell very quickly what will happen and when you are naturally going to start adjusting for things jumping in or jumping out of something very quickly are you not going to remember to go and tell your brethren so you're the thing i was talking about last week i jump out to it already yeah are you jumping something for 30 percent and him jumping with you and it went up 60% and you're like, damn, and you jump out. But him, you know what him say? No, this has gone up 60%. We love it. Suppose it can go up 60 more. It goes back to the principle rule. You know, it's three,

it's three steps set a time, set a target. And then step three is to repeat one and two. I'm with you. I'm with you a hundred percent, but I'm telling you, the tele-verging thing is a, is a headache waiting to happen one and two. I'm with you. I'm with you 100%. But I'm telling you, the telebridging thing is a headache waiting to happen. Trust me. Yeah, I agree. I always put a disclaimer that I'm not... How do you know what is going to move though? I mean, I see the question people

ask me all the time. At the end of the day, you can't truly know. I know that, but how do you know? How do you know? do you know what's your method I read a lot no I start by reading so for example for example if our company I don't watch the ratios first at all oh i understand sorry no you can't stop you can't stop you can't stop you can't stop you can't stop i get you i know i know exactly what you did the right thing you look at what they do for money yeah and i look at who runs the company there we go you can do exactly what i do jesus christ thank you i am really happy that i thank you diane876

eight seven six yeah good god you're good yeah wow there's there's more of us out there take a little more time you know what no i i'm well aware of how much time it takes diane found a kindred spirit I found a kindred spirit I found somebody who sounds like a kindred idol I don't find that a lot I've only found one anyway Diane well Diane it was a nice meeting guys thank you for staying

for this whole thing 38 people stuck it out until this time of morning thank you guys I really hope the episode is good you'll hear it when it comes out and thank you for participating with the end this now whatever you do right now, don't you stop.