Effectively Wild: A FanGraphs Baseball Podcast - Effectively Wild Episode 1300: Baseball Driver

Episode Date: November 23, 2018

Ben Lindbergh and Jeff Sullivan banter about minor-league pay, the surprising prospect past of Neil Walker, and the impending posting and pitching of NPB star Yusei Kikuchi. Then (13:43) they bring on Cubs Double-A outfielder Connor Myers to discuss his offseason job as a UPS driver, his baseball bonus and salary, making ends meet on […]

Father, do you hear me? Do you know me? Do you even care? What will you say When they take my place? My heart Can't take this anymore Oh, oh, oh Can't take this anymore What will you say when you see my face?

Hello and welcome to episode 1300 of Effectively Wild, a baseball podcast from Fangraphs presented by our Patreon supporters. I am Ben Lindberg of The Ringer, joined by Jeff Sullivan of Fangraphs. Hello! I'm looking at an NPR headline that goes, quote, Well, that was fast. Young German speeder earns, loses license in 49 minutes. Now, I have now dated this podcast we're recording this on wednesday i think you're all listening to this after thanksgiving but what do you think is the shortest amount of time someone has spent in the major leagues like do you think anyone has ever been promoted and then demoted within an hour how would that happen some sort of transaction other

transaction some sort of trade well there are shadow players right who are called up but never actually play and there was a good story in the washington post i think it was earlier this year about one of them that was particularly heartbreaking but that i guess they're at least in the majors for a day for a game even though they don't get into the game they are technically in the majors but they don't have a baseball reference page that says major leagues so i don't know has there been anyone who gets called up and then sent down immediately because something happened probably there's been a lot of baseball yeah i wonder what it would require obviously we see plenty of cases of guys who get demoted to triple a but then they're brought back

up because somebody got hurt maybe the paperwork was already filed but then they come right back so that way we see all the time but yeah the major league one it would it would require some teams not really knowing what's going on i think in order to promote a player and then send them right back down immediately but i don't know if anybody out there who works for a team or who knows a case like this if it's even possible or not possible just let us know and you can do so anonymously uh sign up for anonymous at gmail.com and uh and then you can tell us the truth yeah you might need some numbers in there the phantom player i was remembering was brian mazzoni i think mazzoni who was called up in a game and uh his game was rained out when

he could have gotten into it and then he never got back up to the big leagues. It was 2006. He was supposed to make a spot start for the Phillies. And Dave Scheinen caught up with him this past year and wrote about it. Sort of sad. And that happens every now and then. He got closer than almost all people get. So that's something. So later in this episode, we are going to be talking to someone who has not made the majors yet, but still hopes to. His name is Connor Myers, and this is how I found Connor Myers. He tweeted something earlier this week, and I will just read the tweet here. If you or your family are waiting on packages, please keep this in mind.

Drivers are doing their best. It probably won't be delivered on time. Delivery trucks look like someone threw a grenade in it. Please be patient. Sincerely, UPS driver. Parentheses, I'm just getting home. And that was sent, I think, around 10 o'clock at night. And this is a baseball player. Connor Myers is an outfielder in the Chicago Cubs organization, just got to AA this year.

But he is also an off-season UPS driver and has been for a few years now. And we have never, I don't think, talked to someone who is a baseball player who also has an off-season job. And that is a reality for a lot of minor league players. So Connor was very open about his life and both his driving job and his playing baseball job. And the extent to which everything that he does is tracked, whether he's at his regular job or whether he's at his other regular job. Yeah, that's right. So it sounds as if the Cubs actually have made some changes and some improvements based on talking to Connor in their minor league system when it comes to conditions and food. But obviously, minor leaguers are still not paid a lot. And we've talked about this. We've done interviews and whole episodes about this before. And it's just a fact of life that a lot

of minor leaguers have to work an off-season job just to make ends meet during the season. And when everyone talks about the injustice of major league young players, pre-free agency, even pre-arbitration players making as little as they do. Certainly, yes, they deserve to make more based on their performance. But minor leaguers, as we've often said, they are the ones really getting jobbed. And because of that, they have to do an extra job. So we wanted to talk to someone who does that. And it sounds like the Cubs are at least feeding their players.

And that's nice. But there are still least feeding their players, and that's nice, but there are still compromises that have to be made there. And you might say, well, boo-hoo, he has to actually work year-round like all of us pretty much have to do. That's not such a hardship, but you do really have to scrimp and save to get through the season. And just from a developmental perspective, as we will talk to him about, you would think it would behoove baseball teams that are worth billions of dollars and in many cases make million dollar profits as well from year to year to pour some money into their minor league system so that their players did not have to drive a UPS truck in the offseason,

but it could instead just maximize their potential. So the fact that that still doesn't happen is very silly and unfortunate. Right. And we've talked about all this before, but for as many people as cry out about the, as you said, injustice at the major league level of how many of the most valuable players are underpaid relative to their worth. Realistically, when you were in the majors, we're talking about the 1% of the baseball players. Everybody who is in the major leagues is doing pretty well financially, if not far, far better than that. Think about last year, so many people upset about like the Neil Walker case and Neil Walker has made millions of dollars over his career. You don't need to feel that bad for Neil Walker. You can feel worse for someone who's hoping to be the next Neil Walker,

the next not necessarily top prospect. Neil Walker wasn't the top prospect, was he? It's hard for me to think that Neil Walker was a top prospect. I'm just going to assume without confirmation that he wasn't. And you want to think about the next Neil Walker. You want to think, are teams doing enough to try to find and develop the next Neil Walker? The real battleground in terms of money here, I know that major league players are responsible for so much of the revenue, if not, you could say, all of the revenue that is poured into the Major League coffers. And I get that it's important to talk about the split

in revenues between players and owners, but it is most important, I think, to focus on the players who aren't getting paid almost at all, as opposed to the players who are getting more than half of a million dollars as a league minimum per season. So the real battleground is in the minor leagues i we talked to connor myers about that a little bit but of course very very few active minor league players want to be put on the spot and talk about how they are uh getting screwed by their bosses because they also want to

climb the ladder which only makes sense so anyway if you are going to complain about money in baseball complain about the people who make in baseball, complain about the people who make nothing before you complain about the people who make a lot. By the way, Neil Walker, top 100 prospect, according to Baseball America, four times, four years in a row. Are you effing kidding me? Yeah. Neil Walker.

He topped out at number 43 on the top 100 list. So how about that? What years are we talking about? 2005 to 2008. Oh, okay. Well, I remember very little about those years. Those were the Delman Young years, I think. So, okay.

I never would have ever guessed that to be true, but thanks for it. Drafted 11th overall in 2004. Wow. There's a lot about Neil Walker's career I don't know. Yeah. So we are, as you mentioned, pre-recording this conversation before Thanksgiving, and you are listening to it after Thanksgiving. So we don't know if Jerry DePoto did make a trade on Thanksgiving Day.

We'll talk about it next week. So only one thing that I wanted to ask about, because this is somewhat evergreen or at least two weeks evergreen, And you wrote about it. Yusei Kikuchi, who is this year's most intriguing Japanese free agent player who is going to be posted. So tell us about Kikuchi. You wrote about him. And obviously he is not another Otani or even another Matsuzaka or Darvish, but pretty good pitcher. I'm going to stop you there. Okay.

Neil Walker was a top 100 prospect after 2004 2005 2006 and 2007 his ops is as uh what what even was he he was a okay so he was a catcher he was drafted as a catcher and then he became a third baseman okay your walker's just wow completely different guy than the one we know but in in 2005 he allowed 92 stolen bases you can allow that many stolen bases in 83 games wow and he threw out 54 guys no longer a catcher neil walker his ops is over those years 738 769 733 784 he topped out at 13 home runs neil walker not that special of a player it seems like in the minor leagues and yet just continuously over so you say kikuchi uh he's he's coming over he's going to be posted soon he has to be posted by december 5th under some new posting rules and at that point that will kick off a 30-day negotiation

window by which point uh by the end of which he has to have agreed to terms or i guess i don't know gone back that seems unlikely but anyway he's over, and he is not Shohei Otani. Shohei Otani can do a lot of things that Yusei Kikuchi cannot do, like keep his fastball around 100 miles per hour for a whole game and also do the hitting part. Yusei Kikuchi has three hits on record in Japanese baseball, and more than three at bats. One of them was for extra bases.

It was not a home run. So he's coming over, and he is interesting because all starting pitchers, or really all pitchers who try's coming over and he is he's interesting because all starting pitchers or really all pitchers who come try to come over from japan and korea are interesting because they're just so much lesser known it's not like a minor league prospect because i think people understand minor league prospects in context but people don't have a great understanding of what the context is like in japan and korea and these are leagues where the best players are major league capable but the the worst players are nowhere even close so i think kikuchi can get his fastball up into the high 90s but

realistically he last year he averaged about 92 miles per hour a hair under and he he missed a little time with a shoulder injury but just in terms of his repertoire he's a lefty but he looks a lot like miles michaels or maybe even more Kenta Maeda, who are two pitchers who came to the majors or in Michaelis' case, back to the majors after pitching and starting in Japan. All of them throw their fastballs in the low 90s. Maeda in particular favors a slider. When he was in Japan, he favored his slider quite a bit, just about as much as Kikuchi

did and does. And so you're looking at a guy who throws a low 90s fastball with a good slider in the mid 80s also has a curveball and change up that he throws sometimes and kikuchi is not like a huge strikeout pitcher not like otani but the the average strikeout rate in japan is lower than it is in the major leagues in maeda's case we actually saw his strikeout rate go up when he faced major league competition which is kind of incredible when you think about the players he was facing. So I think there's proof of concept that someone who has Kikuchi's profile in the NPB can work and work pretty well in the majors, which is why he's going to get a job. He's going to be hotly pursued. I don't know

what his medicals are going to look like. I know that Kenta Maeda signed like an eight-year contract for $25 million with just a boatload of incentives because the Dodgers hated his medical exams. I think he might have failed his first physical or something, just shoulder and elbow problems just out the wazoo. So Maeda had some issues, but he's been good. He's been fairly durable. And Kikuchi, well, his shoulder is going to be closely examined, but just based on his performance, he looks like a pretty good number two or number three pitcher. Cool. All right. Well, we can look forward to seeing someone bid for his services sometime soon. So later in the show, I will be talking to Jay Jaffe about the Hall of Fame season, just previewing who's on the ballot, who's going to get in, the big questions about this year.

But first, we will be back with Connor Myers, who is an off-season UPS driver. I know many major leaguers used to work off-season jobs, if not most, or at least they would barnstorm or something if they didn't have a second career, but it's just not something you see often at that level. Every now and then there's like a Ross Ohlendorf or someone who just has an interest that he wants to pursue in the offseason. And so he has a second job for that reason. But in the minors, it is much more common. And we'll be back in just a moment with Connor to tell us about it. In a certain way, he feels like Jesus Everyone dreams of him just as they can

But he's only the humble delivering man Infield as straight as can be. Steel right foot back, right foot up in the lefty. Over the top fastball, hit in the air, pretty deep to center myers the center fielder over his left shoulder on the run dives it makes the catch of the warning track what a play from connor myers laying down over his left shoulder to retire the side and take away an extra base hit from loopstock all right so i was gonna try to come up with some kind of clever intro for our guest about how he takes roots in right field and center field all summer, and then he drives roots in the winter, and everything I tried to come up with just came out really corny. to do that. I'm not going to do that. We are joined now by Connor Myers, who is an outfielder in the Chicago Cubs organization. And over the offseason, he is a UPS driver who just got off

his shift. Hey, Connor. How are we doing today? Doing well. So for people who haven't seen you, don't know about you, give us a little self-scouting report. What kind of player are you? I'm a player that likes to go get in the outfield. He can run, doesn't miss many baseballs in the outfield. Getting his hitting down. I hit a lot better this year than last year, but it feels good about the future with baseball and the Cubs organization. So you've been in the system for a few years now, since 2016, and you've been doing this off-season gig since then too, basically, right? was this something that started your first off-season as a player or was it before then the first off-season as a player my dad best buddy i think it was his best man at his wedding i've been working with eps for 30 years so he's about to

retire and my dad asked him if there any spot for like reg temps which is like an off-season driver or a seasonal driver and uh said yeah, yeah, they're always hiring. So I went in and applied for it. Pretty much got it because of him because he has tenure there. And I had to go down to Largo, Maryland to do training for five days pretty much just to see if you're safe and know how to drive a big truck. And so I passed, and I've been driving ever since. So when you have occasion to tell people that you're driving a truck or you're in the uniform and you tell people that you're a professional baseball player during the summer, what kind of response do you usually get?

Like, oh, really? Like, why do you do that? And I kind of just tell them, you know, I was a 27th round draft pick out of college. So, you know, you've got to find your way to make some money in the offseason besides doing lessons. So, I mean, I get that a lot. I get, hey, why don't you drive for UPS? blah but you know i actually really enjoy it uh it's a lot of fun you stay active it's always working your brain just to find out where this next house is where your next package is all that stuff but uh yeah it's a cool gig in the off season so i i don't

like hey i'm a ups driver in the off season you know but they understand when they find out why i do it yeah so take us through a day at work in the off season what are you doing exactly well i get to the center at 7 30 i usually wake up at 6 get breakfast all that stuff 25 minute drive to the center when i get to the center i find my board which is my the thing that stands all the packages go to my truck see if it's in good condition or not, because packages are still coming down the belt. Once I get there, I kind of get all of my sorts about me. Then I get in there, try to sort all the packages in order of where the first stop is going to be,

where the last stop is going to be. Sometimes I can't even walk through the center of my truck because I have so many big packages. It's really a whirlwind when you first get in there because you're just trying to like keep your composure because today when i got in there i have a small i was the smallest gps truck at the 500 and i have 293 packages on there 293 packages doesn't don't fit on a uh a 500 series truck so i had to take a whole bunch of stuff off figure out how to put it on the post it so that took me a good hour to do that's why i had to take a whole bunch of stuff off figure out how to put it on the foot so that took me a good hour to do that's why i get to the center early and then i just go out deliver at 8 45 that's our start time get out there and hopefully it goes well you know i mean

today it went well i got off at 4 30 but then they said i needed to help somebody else get some packages off i took 45 stops from another person so it's a whirlwind, I'll tell you that. It's fun, but it's definitely a whirlwind. I would imagine when you get to be in the major leagues, then there's no pressure situation quite like when you get to the playoffs when the spotlight is its brightest. Now, of course, as an off-season UPS

driver, you're in a stretch run here and you're coming up on the playoff equivalent of being a delivery guy, I guess, when you're coming up on the holiday season. So do you think you have the metal, the emotional stability to handle being in the spotlight and having to do your job with so much pressure on? Yeah, I love interacting with customers. We just had a big snowstorm recently, so that's why we're kind of backed up in the center.

So I interact with the customers, tell them what's going on at the center so they get an idea of why they aren't getting their packages on time and stuff like that. But during that peak season that you were just talking about, it gets really hectic in the center. You can't walk to your truck.

You can't walk to your truck. You can't even walk in the center. There's so many packages in there. So, I mean, yeah, it's definitely, you definitely have to keep your composure and not go back to Darnell McDonald. Our mental skills, I guess, coordinator, one of our coordinators, breathe in blue, out red. So I focus on, you know, breathing during that, not, you know, freaking out and all that stuff.

But it's definitely something for somebody that has to keep their composure. I'll tell you that. Yeah. Can you elaborate on that, the breathing in and breathing out? I talked to a couple of people from the mental skills department on another podcast, but tell me from your perspective, what kind of lessons you've learned from that? I've learned to really not take anything for granted. I mean, we're playing a kid's game.

You're going to go through failures in life, you're going to go through failures in baseball, whatever. It's just part of the game. So you just have to i think the biggest the biggest thing is it sounds cliche but learning to deal with your adversities like in a high manner so you're not like really getting down on that that low low you know you got to stay high but you can't stay too high so you really got to stay balanced and and everything you're handling and with what darnell's saying like breathe in breathe out it sounds like a simple task but a lot of us don't know really how to we know how to breathe

but we just do it without thinking but when you think about like you're breathing when you think about how you do it breathe in for five seconds hold it for a second breathe out for five seconds it really does a it does a toll on you like it really really helps you out it really calms you down so like in the one deck circle, you know, before a game with the national anthem, all that stuff, I take those things in and really focus on doing those little two second, five second breaths to get myself locked into any situation. Even I find myself doing it in UPS. It sounds weird, but I find myself doing it when I have a very, very stressful day where I can't find the package I need.

I just really breathe in, breathe out, and all that stuff. So it really helps me out. So you played for both Myrtle Beach and Tennessee this year, the high A and double A affiliate of the Cubs. And do you have a, I'm sure you've kept in touch with many of your teammates. Do you know how many of them are also working off-season jobs right now? Honestly, I know Zach Short, you've probably heard his name before. He used to work with UPS. There's a lot of guys that do lessons. Some guys do yard work and all that stuff, like cutting grass when it's obviously hotter outside. But not too many, honestly,

but a decent amount, I guess. Yeah. And a lot of people will say, well, yeah, minor leaguers don't get paid that much, but they get those bonuses and those go a long way. And for some guys they do, but for 27th rounders, probably not so much. Can you give us any idea of how long that lasted you? Oh yeah. I'm not afraid to say it. I was drafted in the 27th round out of the million. I got a $5,000 signing bonus, which is a lot more than a lot of seniors. But yeah, I got $5,000. After taxes, I think it was like two payments of $1,600. I'm very grateful that I got drafted by the Chicago Cubs and everything, but $5,000 doesn't get you too far. So, I mean, the first thing I did was bought myself a PS4. Not going to lie.

Bought myself a PS4 in Eugene, Oregon. And I still use it to this day. I watch Netflix and all that stuff on it. But yeah, that money didn't last too long. I mean, I do my best with saving it. And that's another reason why I also have to work an all-season job. But yeah, like I said, it didn't last me too long. And it's not that bad of a money, but it's just obviously $1,600.

I put some of it away, but it didn't last me too long. Yeah. Well, and so what about your regular season salaries? I mean, how are you making ends meet during the season? Obviously, this is a necessity, right? It's not like you're just doing this to save up money for the future. This is something you have to do to get through the year. Oh, yeah.

I'm definitely making this money right now to take it through, you know, when I stay in an apartment in the season in Tennessee or wherever I'm going to end up. Yeah, it's definitely getting these first couple months in the books with this money. Hopefully I can make enough to where I can, you know, put some of it away so I don't have to worry about paying for it or I can stay in a host family. I don't even know. But yeah, all of this is for the season coming up and hopefully I can make enough to make ends meet with the season coming up. I mean, it's a couple months away, so I still got some time and I got some lessons still lined up.

But yeah, I mean, it's definitely making ends meet. So, I mean, I enjoy it. I take it as a game. I mean, yeah, it's making money to spend money, which I mean, is what we do. But it's cool to make money just to pay you know pay rent for a little fun job that i'm doing with baseball you know so during the off season obviously you're you're very busy doing your uh deliveries but you know many people would say that playing baseball as a professional is a full-time 12 month a year job and it's something where if you uh if you're

not working to to make yourself better then what are you really doing? To what extent are you able, if at all, to work on your own baseball skills during the winter? You said that you have some lessons lined up, but as far as I know, that's you giving lessons and not necessarily receiving them. Yeah, that's correct. I work out four times a week. My schedule is very hectic when it's the days that I work out. My trainer is very lenient with my timing. I imagine when I can get there and stuff. Usually, it's at six o'clock recently this that this week i haven't been getting off until about 6 30

actually monday i got off at 8 15 so i had to message him and tell him hey like i'm gonna be running a little bit late and he's very very lenient like i said with my workout so he's gonna be there for me i work out four days a week i hit three days a week i'm starting to throw again so they're long days but hey i mean it's worth it um i'm still i still got energy all that stuff so yeah i'm still getting all that stuff in getting lessons in and everything so it's going really well for me right now are there things you would be able to do or be able to do more easily if you had all the money in the world and didn't have to work an off-season job? I mean, are there, you know, facilities you would go or technology you'd get or just more

sleep or better food or whatever, something that would improve your odds? Yeah. I mean, we could all say that, right? I mean, having more money would make everything better, but I mean, I've always been that person that's been an underdog so i like i don't mind i don't mind the grind so you know like we call it but yes of course if i had more money i could get you know more machines that i could use like recovery tools all that stuff but as of now like i'm working for that big goal like you know we all are so i'm not too too worried about having like all that money like we were talking about because i'm like what i'm doing now i'm working out a prime performance in gaithersburg tommy johnson is his name um he played minor league ball with the mariners he's got a

great facility down there he's got wrap soda machines to measure you know a launch angle how hard you hit the ball how far you hit the ball that stuff far you hit the ball, all that stuff. Got a whole bunch of machines to figure out hit tracks, all that stuff, to make sure your pelvic tilt and all that stuff is in good position. So I got a good amount of machines now, and I'm paying for it. So it's definitely worth my time and stuff like that. So I'm enjoying what I have going on right now. I'm sure as far as the grind is concerned, so much of it is psychological and making sure that you stay in a positive frame of mind, anything that you can do to sort of drive your own motivation.

And I was curious, someone who this season emerged with the Dodgers at the major league level, even made it onto the postseason roster was Caleb Ferguson. Minor league starter, but, you know, effective major league reliever, piled up the strikeouts. And it just so happens that a few years ago, you hit your second career professional home run off of Caleb Ferguson I was wondering if that does that mean anything to you when you see a guy like that just emerge at the highest level and know that you at least were able to take him deep once one of the first times you faced him honestly to be serious with you I didn't know he was a big leaguer well okay so Connor Myers let me tell you something about caleb ferguson he's uh he killed it this year he came up with the dodgers when when you just said this i was like okay i'm sorry i don't know no but i mean obviously like that shows you that i i'm not being like you know i'm not being mean or anything but i just didn't know like i'm just out there

playing the game like i guess that's just how i play like i don't think about too much i just go up there and just play i mean i mean looking back now that you said that, it's freaking cool that I did that. But yeah, I guess I don't pay attention to that stuff. I don't want to sound rude or anything, but yeah, I just don't pay attention. Yeah. So you started out in rookie ball and you've worked your way all the way up to AA this past year. How has that changed conditions at all, kind of your day-to-day life in terms of living situation or salary or food or, you know, just anything that affects the quality of your minor league life?

I mean, living situations, I've been actually very good at the Cubs organization. They take care of you very, very well. Rookie ball, we stayed in Eugene, Eugene, Oregon. Stayed in a nice hotel about a mile away, so I biked to the field every day. South Bend, I stayed in a, which is low A, I stayed in an apartment with five guys. It was kind of packed, but it was cool. It was about a mile away again. Didn't have a car, so we had a carpool, which is the usual pretty much with guys that live farther away from the places they're playing. Myrtle Beach, my parents bought a house down there this past year.

So I didn't stay in the house, but I lived in a host family. And the other levels didn't have host families. So I guess when you get to high A, they have host families. So I stayed there, had a car. Parents brought our car down. In AA, I stayed in with two pitchers. So we're pretty much paying for the hotels. We're paying for the apartments. The host family

I didn't pay for, obviously. But I did give them a good gift towards the end of the year. We all did, whoever lived with them. Salary changes, I'm sure you guys know. It goes up as you go along. I can't really tell you how much it goes up. Just because I don't know off the top of my head. But as you go up

in the levels of baseball, obviously it goes up. But as you have more tenure, it goes up too, from what I understand. But yeah, I mean, from when I started, I think I had like a $330 paycheck for every two weeks. Now it's up to like five something. So, I mean, it's obviously going up a little bit. And then the bonuses that come in along, like I think it's every three months. If you're in AA, it's like, what, $1,500? Is that what I'm understanding?

Do you guys know anything about that? I don't know offhand, but that sounds about right, yeah. It's something about that, yeah. But living conditions are great. Salaries, you know, it is what you make it, you know. And, I mean, everyday life, it's just the same. I mean, getting to the field early, getting home late, it's just the routine that you need to come up with that fits you, you know?

That's what I had to understand. I mean, college is completely different than – 56 games is completely different than playing 120 games, 140 games, wherever it is. So, I mean, you just got to find your routine that fits you and just think with it. That's the biggest thing for me. Mine this year was Fortnite, so, I mean, you just got to find your routine that fits you and think with it. That's the biggest thing for me. Mine this year was Fortnite.

So, I mean, that's cool for me. But, I mean, everything is awesome. I enjoy it. I enjoy going to different places, staying in hotels, staying in little towns no one knows about, going to dives for restaurants, you know, at 10 o'clock at night. You know, all that stuff is cool. I mean, like I said, with the money situation, it is what you make it. I mean, I enjoy going different places.

I mean, maybe not all people are like that, but I just take it all in, you know? And for meals and nutrition, does the team provide a lot, or do you get a certain per diem that you have to figure out how to spend? Yes, you get per diem i believe from my memory i want to say it's like 25 a day i believe so you get to spend that on whatever you would like and since the cubs won the world series they put a lot of money into nutrition every level so each level has a nutritionist this year we had a girl that actually just got accepted to auburn she's like the lead nutritionist at auburn now so you have everything you need at the especially you have your smoothies

that you know your protein smoothies your weight gain smoothies your hydration smoothies um so you pretty much have everything you possibly need at the level. So I haven't obviously been up to AAA or obviously Chicago, but everything is the same. They have nutritionists, they have strength trainers that have your best interest and everything like that. So everything with the Cubs organization is pretty dang good. Allen takes his lead off first. Nobody out.

Second inning, 1-0 Cubs. Fastball up, hit to right center field. Martinez on his horse, diving attempt, and oh, what a catch made by Connor Myers! Head first, diving catch, sliding on the warning track, which is field turf in deep right center field. Spectacular catch, and Oscar De La Cruz takes off his cap and waves it at Myers, who just robbed Haverlack,

probably of a double maybe a triple wow what a play by Myers so right between June and July you were promoted from high A Myrtle Beach to double A Tennessee and at least in my own head I kind of figured double A and triple A that's where the real advanced minor league competition is and And so in order to reach that level in the first place is an achievement. So do you recall how that conversation took place? Was it something that came as a routine? Was it a surprise? What was the conversation like when you wound up getting promoted to AA and put in the lineup the very next day?

It was actually super funny. Buddy Bailey, I'm sure you guys have heard of Buddy Bailey. He's a legend in baseball. He said, hey, keep playing hard like two days before this happened. funny buddy bailey i'm sure you guys heard of buddy bailey he's a legend in baseball he said hey keep keep playing hard like two days before this happened hey keep playing hard good things are going to happen i said okay like obviously i'm not going to say anything or like you know think about anything but then after a game i think it was against potomac or something like that i went over three with three hard line outs as we're shaking hands because we won he uh i was the last

one to go say hey i talked to you come to my office after the after you get dressed and stuff i said okay so i go to his office every coordinator is in there we have uh our strength coach our strength coordinator in there too so so say sit down sit down so we sit down and say man you had an okay game tonight we just need to do some things better we need to hit better we need to do this we need to do that they said nah i'm not gonna say what he says but no man i'm just messing with you you're going to double a i was like oh shoot sweet so i had a big smile on my face i couldn't stop smiling i was broke down in tears because you

know it's a cool it's a cool experience getting getting called up i can't really explain it just because it's like it takes your words away but it's a really cool experience and the way he did it and he even jokes about my car man i have a 1996 hyundai elantra that's just uh epitome of like a 27 rounder um he's like oh you're gonna make it do we need to do this do we need to do that um no i said buddy it's gonna make it don't worry about that my dad's a mechanic so he can come get me if anything happens but uh but yeah he pretty much just you know he's very proud of me he said and uh he said i'm a good outfielder and all that stuff so he's he's super pumped he's

super pumped for me so we always had a good relationship he's a tough guy but he um he enjoyed my company. I enjoyed his. So something that happened just about a week and a half after you were promoted to AA, maybe you already know where this is going. Now, major leaguers go into rehab assignments all the time whenever they're injured, but you did get to share a lineup and a clubhouse with Chris Bryant for a couple of games. And unlike Caleb Ferguson, I imagine you know that Chris Bryant is a major league baseball player.

So I was curious, what is it like? I know you've only had a few rehabs since that you've observed at the minor league level, and Chris Bryant's only one guy. But what does it mean to a minor league clubhouse when someone like that comes in for even just a couple of days? The buzz is unbelievable. You hear about it two days maybe two days before and everyone's like oh he's gonna be here he's gonna be here you're checking the lineup soon he's gonna be in the lineup and all that stuff and then the one day that i walk in the clubhouse the lineup's like right when you walk in and i see that he's in there in the lineup and i'm like

oh my god he's here he's here so i walk around and i see him he's like four lockers away from me trying not to stare you know it's just it's I'm not trying to be a creep or anything but it's super it's super cool to to see like you know the phenom Chris Bryant in the in the same locker room as you so I mean it's just different you know you see what he like his routines all that stuff how he goes about his his day how he does you know what he does and it's super cool you know he's like six foot seven not really but he seemed that big but um no it's just super cool because like he talks to you he's very very humble he just he's a guy like he's he's a dude that just wants to play baseball and get better you know so how much feedback do you get about your performance?

Are the Cubs showing you lots of stats? You know, you mentioned that you made three hard hit outs. Are you getting, you know, exit velocity stats so that if you make some hard hit outs, you don't get down because you know that you hit the ball well? Or are you getting feedback on your defensive performance? Or do you know what you have to do to get to the next level? Yeah, every team, I'm pretty sure, has something called a track man. Track man, obviously, tracks your launch angle and how hard you hit it and stuff like that.

So you can check the next day after a game and see how hard you hit it and stuff like that. So that's a good way to see how you're doing and see if you're making good contact and all that stuff. And I have confidence in myself that I'm a good outfielder. No one really says anything about my outfield play. I don't know why, but I feel good about my outfield play, so I'm confident there. So I don't necessarily need feedback in that. I mean, if I do something wrong, obviously that would be nice.

I think the biggest thing for me is to advance to the next level with hitting, you know, because hitting has obviously gotten better this year. But, I mean, coaches are always there for you, you know, whenever you need anything. Our coaches definitely. They give you feedback. They have, you know, early work for you if you want early work so you can get there earlier.

You can stay late if you want. So they always have something at your fingertips for you to take that next step in getting better. So that's pretty nice. Well, and I remember reading an article a few years ago about how UPS drivers are also tracked with GPS information. Oh my gosh, it's bad.

It's like whatever you do, all of your jobs, everything is tracked and monitored. So are you getting feedback based on that too? Or how does that impact your driving job? It's unbelievable, guys. So you literally are tracked with everything you do. So I even told my girlfriend and she doesn't believe me that they track everything. They track how many times you back up, how fast you go when you're backing up, how long you go, like how much distance you cover going backwards.

Because backwards, obviously, is not safe. Even the rear view camera and stuff like that, it's just not totally safe. So the first day that I was on my own driving with UPS, the next day after my first day, the supervisor came up to me. Hey, Connor. I said, yeah, what's up? He said, you backed 1.3 miles. Your average speed was 3.7 and the average speed has to be like 3.3 or under. So I was like, oh shoot, that's too far. So, you know, I understand like you're understanding your new route, you know, trying to understand your new route. So we're know, I understand like you're, you're, you're understanding your new route,

you know, trying to understand your new route. So we're going to let it slide, but you know, you just can't, you can't be doing that. So it's just, it's,

it's crazy how much you're attracting UPS and like the rules. I think it's because you're part of a union. I told my girlfriend that she's like, she rolls her eyes at me, but I think it's because you're part of a union and like they have to keep their, they have to cover their backs and stuff like that. I don't completely understand it, but yeah, it's crazy how much they cover you.

At least you're part of one union. I guess that's good. But does that make you a better driver to be aware of that? Or are you just constantly thinking like, oh no, I'm backing up. It's going to ruin my stats. You know, today with how much stuff I had to do, I pretty much just said, you know, I don't care just because I wanted to get done. But most of the time I try to keep, try to be aware of how much I'm doing it. I kind of put it in neutral. Neutral doesn't, doesn't count in the back. So it's definitely, you gotta, you gotta find ways to go about it

without having to break the rules. But I try to keep it under the rules, you know? Yeah. I was going to ask about, so many baseball players will tell you that, you know, when you're hitting or when you're pitching, the last thing you want to be doing is thinking about your performance. You just want to go up there and sort of be an autopilot, just kind of do it by subconscious.

I guess it's the same when you're driving. You just can't worry about the stats, can't worry about the performance, just kind of let it happen. Oh, yeah. You can't worry about the stats, can't worry about the performance, just kind of let it happen? Oh, yeah, you can't worry about it because, I mean, if you start, obviously, tight muscles are not quick muscles. So you just really have to just go about it because most people deliver to the same places every day because people just have habits of buying stuff and you just deliver to the same houses every day. So you can fall into that nonchalant attitude where you're just like, oh, this house again, blah, blah, blah.

But every situation can be different so i mean you really have to stay focused on on the task at hand every time so you really just have to stay focused like i said so the last thing i wanted to ask is obviously as a as an alum of old dominion you can watch justin verlander win the cy young or in this case almost win the Cy Young he's no very few schools can have a better major league icon than Justin Verlander but you did play a couple years with Ryan Yarbrough who of course debuted this year with uh with the Tampa Bay Rays I can't assume your relationship with your former collegiate teammate but I was wondering if you could talk about what it's like if you if you watched him at all in the major leagues because unlike say Caleb Ferguson you would have had some sort of pre-existing relationship with Ryan.

Yeah, me and Yarby, we played together for, I think, a year or two. Yarby's an awesome guy. Obviously, I have a nickname for him, Yarby. But yeah, he was an awesome guy. I texted him when he got called up. I was really close with his girlfriend, too. We were pretty good friends freshman year. And then, obviously, they started dating and stuff like that. So, he's an awesome dude. Me and him are close. And then, obviously, I know Ben Verlander, which is Justin Verlander's

brother. He's pretty cool. So, I never got to meet Justin. But, yeah, I also talked to Dan Hudson, who was out of ODU, too. So, I mean, we have a pretty rich history in baseball. But Yarby was a super awesome dude. So hopefully baseball works out and you're doing that for the next decade. But if it doesn't or when you're done with that, whenever it ends, are you interested in continuing to drive?

Do you have other plans or are you happy with one of your two current careers, whatever happens? Honestly, I'm focused on one thing right now, and I think you know what that is. Like everybody. Fortnite? Yeah, Fortnite. Yeah, no doubt. No, but yeah, focusing on that dream that I've had

since I was a four-year-old kid. But I mean, if I come to a point and have a realization with myself where I can't make it to that next level or whatever, I always have this on the back burner, UPS. And then, I mean, coaching would be a cool job, too. Staying in the professional ranks, maybe being like a rehab coach to start out and all that stuff. I just want to stay in sports as long as possible, honestly. I mean, just like every other baseball player, pretty much.

Or every athlete, they want to stay in sports as long as possible. All right. Well, we appreciate your coming on. You can find Connor on Twitter at underscore CM underscore nine. And we wish you the best with your GPS stats and your trackman stats and the holiday season and all your deliveries and training. And good luck next year, too. I appreciate it, guys.

All right. Have a good one. You, too. All right it, guys. All the best. Have a good one. You too. All right. Thank you. All right, so we will take another quick break, and then I will be right back with Jay Jaffe of Fangraphs to talk about the Hall of Fame.

Golf to center. Pretty well hit. Myers racing back. Warning track. On the run. Makes the catch. And then bangs into the wall and holds on. What a play. Great, on. What a play.

Great, great. What a great play. You won't see one better than that. And I'll tell you why it's so great. Because he caught it right at the wall. And boy, a lot of guys just give up on that ball. Yeah, he's running right there, and he... I mean, he...

Oh, great catch. Great catch. And the wall out there is not padded. It's wood. I don't mind Let's go to the zoo, love I don't mind Let's go to the zoo, love Little lions

As you might be now And I would have the words wrong Sing into your phone That's a linda taboo love All right, it is time for an annual tradition. Time to talk Hall of Fame with Jay Jaffe, who now is a Fangraphs writer. So he is in-house, and he is about to begin his 15th year, I think, doing player profiles for Hall of Fame season. I guess you've already begun. 15th with Jaws. Okay. And I was doing it, I started of fame season, I guess you've already begun. 15th with jaws.

Okay. And I was doing it. I started the first ballot I ever analyzed was if you told the infielder, and that was pre jaws. Right. That was the 2002 ballot. So this is the eight, so 18th.

Yeah. 2004 was the first jaws. So that's a word. 19, 15, 16. Yeah. 16th time around with jaws and 18th time around overall.

And boy, my God. And that's the entire, you know, like they don't even put candidates on the ballot for 15 years anymore. And, you know, I've run out of them. I mean, I guess, you know, like the whole Lee Smith candidacy and the whole Don Mattingly candidacy and the whole Alan Trammell and the last of the 15-year guys. I buried them. Right, yeah. Yeah, and you're, what, two years now away from your own vote, which I guess means I'm three years away.

I think I got in the year after you did. Right, that sounds right. My God, we're getting there. And we just saw today via Twitter that Christina Carl got hers. So she is the first of the Baseball Perspectives founders and probably the only Baseball Perspectives founder who's going to get one because everybody else has gone on to, let's just say, more sporadic baseball contributions in terms of affiliated outlets.

And still, I think that's very, very cool. I know Keith Law gets his this year too. But, you know, I think we're going to see some of these changes that arrival of analytics in the Hall of Fame conversation has already wrought, I think, are going to be maybe accelerated by, you know, by those of us who've been part of that wave actually getting the franchise. Yeah, yeah, we'll do our part. So you have already written a bit about the Today's Game ballot, which we could talk about. And of course, you've done a big questions post, which we will touch on here. So I guess we can start with the new names. And of course, Mariano Rivera is the gimme name on this ballot. And your big question about him was whether it would be unanimous, which it almost certainly won't, given history and nobody else being unanimous. But behind him, we have Roy Halladay, we have Andy Pettit, we have Todd Helton, we have Roy Oswald, I guess. He's not going to get in, but I wanted to mention him. He had a nice career. Yeah. Lance Berkman. Yeah, Lance Berkman too. And Miguel Tejada. I mean, there is a very good class of guys who I think are just below the rung of Hall of Famers. And I think, you know, in decades past before, you know, the analytics stuff injected itself into the conversation, these guys would have stuck around the ballot for years and years, maybe not amassing the support, but they would have been talked about instead of quickly dispatched. asking the support, but they would have been talked about instead of quickly dispatched. Yeah. Well, as you mentioned in your post, there have actually been a lot of guys elected lately, historically speaking, which we've been talking about the backlog now for years,

and there still is one. Yeah, it's amazing. Yes. If I'm not mistaken, I think it's 16 guys over the last five years. And even if there were a shutout this year, it would still be the largest over a six-year span. And it's quite a wave. And we've seen a lot of first ballot guys. We've seen a lot of guys who stuck around for a long time finally get in. And finally, I think we're starting to see the top of the ballot clear off here, except for the more polarizing guys who are sticking around. And we can get to that. No need to dive into the guys who are sucking the oxygen out of the room immediately. Right. So Halliday obviously has the extra narrative here in that unfortunately he is not around to go in. And we've seen in the past that when people have met an untimely end,

sometimes there is a boost to their posthumous candidacy. And it seems like that is likely to happen with Halliday. But I don't know if it needs to happen with Halliday. Maybe it will make a difference to how quickly he goes in. But it seems like he is deserving regardless. Yeah, I think it's easy to just look at the 203 wins and the 2,700 and some odd innings and see a guy who was very good but didn't have quite a long enough career despite the two Cy Young Awards. But the more closely you look, he just had a stretch where he was by far the most valuable pitcher in the majors for a 10-year span, 2002 to 2011. And he was a workhorse of the type that we do not see anymore, completing as many as nine games a year. And he did that like four times, led the league in innings four times. He was just, he piled a lot of innings into a short time, which may be why he did not make it to 3,000 innings, which is kind of the cutoff usually

in terms of whether pitchers get consideration. I'm forgetting, but besides Pedro Martinez, you have to go back. There's just not a ton of recent examples of starting pitchers who got in with fewer than 3,000 innings. But Halladay stands up very well. I think when you look at him sort of as a bridge between the Schilling and Mussina generation, who, you know, just had incredible longevity and maybe not quite as high peaks, those guys weren't winning Cy Young's. They were up against the Randy Johnson's of the world and the Greg Maddox's of the world, I guess, at points. But Halladay, I think, is, you know, I guess about the same age as CeCe Sabathia. And that generation is sort of missing a little bit in terms of their presence. By the peak score,

the seven-year peak score, he's got a higher peak than any active starter right now. And one that's just about just over the line relative to the average Hall of Fame starter. The only other guy who's active who has anything close is Clayton Kershaw. And then you're talking to guys who are three to three or four or five wins below him for that peak, Granke and Verlander and Scherzer and guys like that. So Halladay really does stand out as this transitional guy. And I think when you consider that plus the no hitters the postseason no hitter just the two Cy Youngs I think it's pretty easy to come around to the idea that he's uh hall of fame

worthy and I you know I would have guessed before that it was like maybe a two or three year path for him now I think with his demise I think it's it's very possible we see him get in but I could also see him still falling a little bit short because we just don't see a lot of non-300 game winning starters get in. And so we're not at the point yet when we can take for granted the fact that one with just 203 wins is going to sail in on the first ballot, you know, even with the other factors. Yeah. Well, it does seem like we're at the point now where looking at the historical benchmarks for starting pitchers, you almost have to just toss out most of history, it seems like. I don't

know whether you've considered adjusting the Jaws baseline. This is something that keeps me awake at night. I have written half a dozen articles. Really, I think it started with Halliday's death, actually. Halliday's death, Johan Santana's arrival on the ballot last year, and then things I did after moving to Fangraphs about Felix, about CeCe, about Verlander, and about Granke. It's sort of a series, and I kind of keep revisiting it, and it's like, oh my God, Jay, would you just, you know, like make up your mind about this?

But it's about how, you know, I think really we are going to have to take a look at these, you know, at different standards for these pitchers in what I would call the workload constraint era. You know, these guys are just not going to get it worked as hard. They're not going to get as many innings or, many wins, the shapes of their careers are going to be very different than, let's say, Burt Blylevin and Gaylord Perry and Steve Carlton and those guys that I grew up thinking of as the benchmarks for a Hall of Fame career. Maybe not Blylevin initially, but obviously looms large in terms of the arrival of Jaws on the scene. Because people have been saying, oh, is the 300 game winner dead for decades, right? Yeah, and then Randy Johnson and Greg Maddox and Roger Collins blew past it.

Now it does look like it really could be a good long time. I mean, Dan Zimborski and I did something together. I guess it was in connection to Verlander. Late in the year when Verlander got to 200, it was looking at 300. And Dan using Zips came up with these probabilities. And to me, they looked a bit high because Zips is still using what's probably now maybe an outmoded expectation

for how much work these guys are going to get going forward. I don't think we're going to see a lot of 200-inning guys going forward. And, you know, you just can't pencil in Zach Greinke for a bunch of 200-inning seasons any more the way you could. And I think that is going to change things. And we're going to have to consider that. And I think we also need to go back and consider, you know, talking about the Today's Game ballot, Oral Hershiser's on it, and he's kind of, I think,

one of the maybe a little bit weaker than, say, David Cohn or Brett Saberhagen. But those are guys who came and went on the BBWA ballots fairly quickly and I think deserve a longer look, and I would like to see them getting longer looks on the committee stuff. Because I think you could see them, Dave Steeb being another one, I think you can see them as kind of fitting in this same sort of Halliday, similar workload, where not everybody is going to be throwing 275 innings a year for 15 years. Yeah. Well, where does Andy Pettit fit in with that group with you? Because he,

if you were going by fan graphs, where I think he actually has a higher career fan graphs where than Halliday does. And he's comparable at baseball reference too, but obviously did not have the same kind of peak. So yeah, I have, I have pet at 90th in jaws, just a much lower peak and a much lower career at 47.2 jaws where Halliday is at 57.5, and Messina is at 63.8, and Schilling at 64.1. So, Pettit's way down there. And, you know, look, Andy Pettit was a very nice pitcher and a personal favorite in a lot of ways. I watched Andy Pettit pitch probably more innings than just about anybody in the last 20 years. And I have great affection for him as a fan. And certainly, I mean, going back to just I think the 2003 and 2009 postseason,

it's just how good he was in both of those and kind of erasing, I think, a lot of the bad memories of 2001 when he was allegedly tipping his pitches in the World Series. And pretty much that was the difference in that one. So, but, you know, he wasn't, you know, he racked up a lot of strikeouts because of his longevity, but he wasn't really a high strikeout guy. You know, he was better at run prevention than you think given his 385 ERA, but still not a threat to win an ERA title. Never led the league in ERA or strikeouts. Never won a Cy Young, only had a few all-star appearances. You know, for him, it's the big selling point is the postseason stuff. And he holds some, you know, some pretty

interesting records. There are 44 starts, 19 wins, 276 and two-thirds innings. I mean, that's like a 1975 season worth of work. But again, the ERA is about the same, 381. So, you know, it's not like we're talking about, you know, Bob Gibson in the, you know, in the, you know, 60s World Series. Right. And then the other borderline guy is Todd Helton, who has the kind of Coors bias going against him. And we've seen how Larry Walker has struggled to get in and probably a better player than Todd Helton overall, although maybe he had more of a durability issue. Yeah, it's interesting.

I think Helton is, I think that's almost exactly it. I mean, Helton was, you know, by the numbers we have, Helton was a plus fielder at first base, which is not easy to do, but he added some value at first base. He was not much of a base runner, though. For a guy who spent his entire career in Coors, he's got one batting title, a triple slash title, actually, 372, with some eye-opening video game numbers in the year 2000. But he never won an MVP award.

the year 2000, but he never won an MVP award. And, you know, whereas Walker won the MVP award, won three batting titles, played only, what, about half his career in Colorado, shorter career, but was excelled at a tougher position defensively, was outstanding on the bases, even though he wasn't, you know, a huge stolen base threat. He just, he was a smart base runner and just added value everywhere to the point that, you know, even with less than perfect attendance, you know, because in part, because I think he sat, he sat out against some lefties and had some injury issues, obviously. And, you know, kind of walked away from the game when he was still actually very clearly able to, to keep playing, but he had, you know, physical issues. you know physical issues it'll be strange to see if Todd Helton does better because my god I mean Larry Walker's a top 10 right fielder and you know by my numbers and and Todd Helton is a I think a top 15 first baseman but you know there's there's there's a difference there I mean the bar is higher right field and I'd be disappointed if if uh if whatever Helton was doing uh outstripped whatever

Walker's doing because I've certainly invested a lot in trying to convince people about Walker. And now it feels like a Sisyphean task to give up on that and start pumping Helton. Yeah, it does. And it's funny when you go to Baseball Reference and they give you the, you know, neutralize the stats and they give you the most extreme environments. So you can neutralize to 1968 Dodgers or 2000 Rockies is the other one. Is the 2000 Rockies the actual other one? Okay, that's the one.

Yeah. Todd Helton hit 372, 463, 698. And that was only good for a 163 OPS plus. I mean, that was not even his career best. He has a couple of 165s a couple years later in 03 and 04 and you know his batting averages and and uh on base percentages are you know 20 points lower and his slugging percentage is about 70 points lower and yeah and and yet that's the footprint is the same yeah well there is a tendency to just toss it out because it was the moon and then the numbers don't count but

you can't adjust for those things count, but you can adjust for those things. And even when you do adjust for them, he's still really good. Not everyone was slugging 698 for the 2000 Rockies. So, yeah. Right. Yeah. You know, I think he's got a case.

I think given how crowded the ballot is, I mean, if it's a choice between giving your vote to Walker and giving your vote to Helton, rather you give your vote to Walker at this stage. But I do think that Helton. Rather, you give your vote to Walker at this stage. But I do think that Helton should be in the Hall of Fame too. Or I think he's got pretty much a borderline case. I wouldn't be sad at all to see him there. But if you're ranking the candidates in terms of the – I'm not sure he's one of the top ten candidates on the ballot yet.

Let's put it that way. I'll reserve judgment on that until I've broken down the entire ballot because I think that there are some things that, you know, they're worth considering there, pro or con. So the holdovers from last year, the top vote getters, Edgar had 70.4% and then you get down to Messina, 63.5%. Clemens and Bonds in the high 50s, Schilling in the low 50s. Do you foresee anyone there making a big jump or getting in? This is, of course, Edgar's last shot. Yeah, I mean, I think Edgar's close enough that he's going to get in.

I think 70%, 70.4%. When I've looked at 19 out of 20 guys who had 70% in eligibility remaining got in the next year, this is since 1966, the return of annual balloting. The only one who didn't was Jim Bunning, who eventually got in via the Veterans Committee, but really had vote shares that are all over the place from, you know, over the last, I think it's like five years of his time on the ballot. And this was before Jim Bunning was vocal about his politics. And, you know, so it's not quite the Schilling parallel. But anyway, I do think Edgar's, I hope Edgar gets in.

And I do think, you know, it's a pretty good chance he'll get in. But it's going to, like Tim Raines a couple years ago, I'm not going to believe it until I see it. You know, it's going to be a nail biter. Messina, I think, is probably a year away. I think 63.5% last year. When I've researched it, it looks like he's most likely going to get to where Edgar is this year, plus or minus a couple points, and be well set up to get over 75 next year. Bonds, Clemson, Schilling, really, that's the question.

I mean, these guys all basically just ran a year off the clock without gaining much ground. I mean, Schilling did get back about 50% last year, but he's net below where he was two years ago, you know, before his mouth really started to work against him. You know, Bonds and Clemens really didn't have the same kind of spur upward that they did the last, the previous two years with the sunsetting of the uh the inactive writers uh which removed a lot of no votes uh from the pool and then the uh the election of bud selig which caused a lot of holdouts to say you know what if bud's in i don't see why these guys aren't in right there was not there wasn't any you know they had the joe morgan letter last year and maybe that gave

people some pause you know i've my view on view on that Joe Morgan letter was that it was complete garbage. It was very obviously the Hall putting its thumb on the scale and I don't believe for a moment that you're going to get Willie Mays boycotting the induction of Barry Bonds, for example, or some of these other guys. I think that's a fairly idle threat. But these guys, they need to make some headway here because they're running out of time. These guys, they need to make some headway here because they're running out of time. They've got this year and three others, and they can't be gaining three points a year and expect to get in. You've got to be running seven, eight points a year even to make it close.

And I think the thing about them is that they've overwhelmingly been supported by new voters. 24 out of 25 the last two years for Clemens, 23 out of 25 for Bonds. We'll see how quickly the electorate continues to turn over. If they're getting 15, 20 new votes a year and losing 15, 20 no votes, this can happen. But last year, they only gained a few yeses apiece. You literally, like you literally could count on one hand the net number of yeses they gained and they can't afford that again. Yeah. If I could snap my fingers and get anyone in, it would be Messina, I think. I mean, Edgar, maybe because it's his last chance, but Messina just is so deserving. He was a personal favorite and clears the bar by so much. And

I was watching, I think someone tweeted the gif of him the other day where he refused to come out of the game. And he was yelling at Joe Torre. You get back there. And I was thinking like, maybe that is what he needs. Like he needs that image, you know, that kind of like Jack Morris. That toughness. Yeah. I'm not leaving this game. Like I hope that everyone saw that and thinks of Messina that way.

Because maybe that'll do it. Yeah, I'm putting that. And I think Pitching Ninja was tweeting a couple of his knuckle curves pitches. And that, you know, that was a singular pitch. I mean, it stands out. And I think people, I think the thing about Messina is I think a lot of people you know remember the yankees tenure which he came up just short in the cy young race or actually probably should have been a lot closer to the side of the cy young race roger clemens stole it with better run support in 2001 but uh

you know when they came up just short in the world series uh despite some you know his his really strong performances in the postseason and and people forget, he was even better when he was in Baltimore. I mean, he was a guy who, if he'd won 20 games, and we know how fickle the nature of offensive support is, he probably would have won a Cy Young. And the narrative on him, and you go back to a Tom Verducci SI thing that I referenced when I was writing my book, the Cooberstown Casebook, and it was like,

why can't this guy win 20 games? It's like, you know, why can't you, you know, get into a 21st century mindset about this guy? It's, you know, it's not about the wins. It's about the run prevention. It's about the strikeouts and overall dominance. And he checks those boxes. And really, if he'd had spent the first, you know, nine years of his career in New York and then gone to Baltimore, you know, instead of vice versa, first 10 years, whatever, I think he'd be in the Hall of Fame, you know, based on those great Yankee years, even if he didn't quite live up to it in Baltimore, whatever, you know this is this is his sixth year of eligibility he's got 12 you know 11 and a half points to go he'll be fine um I I'm not I'm not worried about

him even if he finishes a vote short this year although it is just taking votes away from other people if he does linger on the ballot I'm for me if I had to say you know one guy and I'm and if I'm confident enough that Edgar is going to get in, which, you know, I'm, I, I worry about that one. I have a, there's a family connection there. My, my, my uncle worked for the Mariners for several years as the, the head concierge of their diamond club. And I refer to the, to that side of the family as the, the Edgar Martinez wing of the Jaffe family. And, and, you know, it would be, you know, he passed away a couple of years ago when I was still doing my book, but, uh,

uh, he was, uh, on my mind a lot at that period. And so I would be, you know, I'd be very happy for, for him and for Edgar.

And, you know, I think fondly for my, uh, uh, my cousins who are, uh, big Mariners fans too,

that, uh, that he gets in. So I'm hoping for that, but like further down Walker's a guy I really want to see in. Scott Rowland is a guy I really want to see in. We can talk about these guys here as we go down the ballot. But if I could just magically put one guy in, I think I'd probably go for some guy who's really struggling for support further down the ballot. Yeah. Well, like you, I am very

curious to see what happens with Vizquel this year because he was at 37% last year. And as you've shown, when you start that high, you tend to get there. And that's, I mean, I'd rather always be in the position of advocating for someone than tearing down someone's case. I took the Omar Vizquel essay out of the book. I was like, you know, I've got, you know, whatever, 15, 16 essays in here advocating strongly for candidates. And this is going to look really horseshit if I've got one. Yeah, right. And it's Omar.

And I'm like pissing all over his candidacy. Yeah. So I don't want to be in that position. But I just don't get it. I mean, I guess I get it. But I just don't. much worse hitter than Ozzy when you, when you adjust for his surroundings and include his base running in the equation. Cause Ozzy was a like top shelf base runner and Omar was, you know, really didn't add anything, you know, it was a big difference in, in, in like Ozzy uses base

running to be more or less a break-even offensive contributor at his peak. Omar never had that. And then the defensive stuff. I mean, we're not always, we don't have the luxury of using full career's worth of defensive runs saved and have ultimate zone rating as a check on that to sort of give you an upper and a lower bound or whatever, two differing viewpoints in the same way that we do with some of the more modern guys but we're basing this all on total zone runs or mostly on total zone runs and it's just not even close i mean aussies got fantastic numbers you know was playing in a

time when there were more chances but once you adjust for that was still getting to far more balls per game you know omar was certainly capable of making great plays, but played on teams that really, I mean, those Indians teams, they were not good at run prevention. And some small amount of that responsibility does fall on him. And he just did not have the range of Ozzie Smith, I think, when you get down to it, was the big thing. Great hands, not the same range. And, you know, you add it all up on both sides of the ball

and he's, you know, hundreds of runs short of where Ozzie was. And, you know, it's going to be, I think, and I said this even before he hit the ballot, based on my experience when I wrote about him at the end of his playing career, that he's going to be the next Jack Morris in terms of polarizing candidates. And that has, so far,

every indication I've seen is that's true. And then further down the ballot, there are a bunch of guys who are better than Omar Vizquel, but are just kind of hanging around. And we mentioned Walker, and there's Manny, who, you know, he's got the steroid baggage,

the PED baggage, and same with Sheffield. And Sheff who, you know, he's got the steroid baggage, the PED baggage, and same with Sheffield. And Sheffield, I guess, is not deserving by Jaws, but Hall of Fame hitter. Yeah, Hall of Fame hitter. And look, you know, I think Sheffield was such a defensive outlier in terms of the metrics that I think it's fair to question them. I think, you know, you could say, well, that seems a little extreme. I think, you know, you could say, well, that seems a little extreme. And you could also consider the extenuating circumstances, particularly of his miserable time in Milwaukee, which I've tried to show. I mean, like this was a guy who was drug tested because he was, you know, simply because he

was black and he was Dwight Gooden's nephew at a time when Dwight Gooden was having drug problems. You know, he had a mouth on him. And so the Brewers made his life miserable. They accused him of faking an injury and sent him down to the minor leagues. They really screwed up a potentially great young player about as badly as you can. I think that really had a huge impact. I'm just looking for his Milwaukee career alone, four seasons, not even four full seasons,

a total of 294 games. He was 30 runs below average in the infield for those four seasons. And, you know, and I think if they just moved him to the outfield earlier, he probably would have been a much better player. Yeah. I wonder what his war would look like if you just made him a DH at the point in his career that Edgar was, whether that might actually benefit him.

It probably would have. I mean, but, you know, he was a gamer. I know you remember, you know, when he was with the Yankees, there was a point when he volunteered to go play third base because they had so many injuries. And, you know, there was a period like that last abbreviated year when he did play first base, you know, because that was what the team needed. I mean, he was a guy who, you know, was athletic enough that you could stuff him in those, in those spots and, and, and nominally get by because his bat was always going to be able to carry whatever position you put it in. But, you know, the difference between him and Manny to me, I mean, like Manny's inarguably a better hitter, but Manny, Manny failed two tests, like failed two tests and not, you know, like after it was very clear what the consequences were.

And Sheffield, you know, by the indications that we have, Sheffield worked out with Barry Bonds and Balko and didn't really think it was on the level and got out of it and, you know, stopped doing it. And, you know, we don't have any other evidence to connect into it. So he doesn't have a positive test. And it sounds like he was pretty disgruntled with the Balco experience. I mean, like, look, Tom Verducci, who is, I think, one of, you know, obviously one of the biggest names in the industry, also one of the more, let's just call it law and order focused voters, and that he's not going to consider anybody who's strongly connected to steroids. He wrote about this, that he thought Sheffield was getting a bad rap. He and I both independently investigated the claims about the intentional errors

that Sheffield claimed to have committed early in his career, found that those stories don't hold water. So I think there's still a lot of myth about Gary Sheffield. And I think that if it wasn't there, I think he would be in much better shape as far as the ballot is concerned. And then Rowan is the guy who has the defensive case that Sheffield doesn't have the opposite in that sense.

He's got the case that Omar wishes he had. I mean, he's got the numbers there and he's got some gold gloves. And what he doesn't have is the tremendous longevity. You know, he had a lot of injury problems in the back half of his career. And man, that guy could play. I mean, it was a legitimate threat on both sides of the ball. I mean, like with the 2004 Cardinals, especially, just a monster year. And then, you know, he just is a wonderful player.

I always really liked watching him and was rather disheartened that he came in at just 10% last year. You know, he's one I'm going to be, you know, in retrospect, actually, I wish I had included his essay in the book. Not that it helped Andrew Jones, who finished with 7% last year. But, you know, it may be a help Walker. He moved up. He had some big gains, moved from the low 20s to the mid 30s. So I wish I could have given role in that spotlight and hope that people found their way to that profile because he needs the love. Yeah. All right. And, yeah Billy Wagner's still hanging around down there and we don't have to

rehash, I guess, the Wagner versus Hoffman wars from last year. Yeah. Well, but look, I mean, I think the fact that Hoffman is in probably helps Wagner's case. I think if Lee Smith gets in, and I think that Lee Smith is going to get in via the today's game ballot because he is just so clearly, I mean, this is like this, it looks like a setup, frankly. You know, there's just the path for Lee Smith to election is just, you know, as plain as day. There's just nobody to challenge him, particularly on the player side from among the other candidates there. the other candidates there. If those two guys get in, Wagner starts to look a bit better in terms of just the qualifications. Yes, he's always going to be short on innings, but man, the dominance is just off the charts. It's lowest opponent's batting average and highest strikeout rate of any pitcher with that level. And I guess if Craig Kimbrell holds out long enough, he'll probably surpass those. But era adjusted, you've still got Wagner with those feats and also doing it from the left side, which we've never seen before on quite that level. And I love Billy Wagner's story, too.

I mean, the fact that he's not a natural lefty, that he learned to throw left-handed after breaking his arm twice and just that he came from extreme poverty and it was really clawed his way up. And I hope Eli Wagner makes it someday. All right. Well, I was going to wrap up with the today's game ballot there since you've just completed a series about it. And it's pretty slim pickings, as you were just saying. And there are guys who are not eligible who are probably better than the guys who are. Yeah, it's the players. I mean, I love Oral Hershiser.

I grew up a Dodger fan. 1988, I was a freshman in college. So that one's always going to be with me. He is a baseball hero of my youth. I wish I could mount a stronger case for him. I think you have to give extraordinary credit to the postseason, which, you know, to be honest, voters used to do, especially in the pre-war, pre-television era.

You could find a lot of guys whose stats don't make sense within the context of the Hall of Fame. And then you look at, oh, he had two really good World Series, like Lefty Gomez or Jess Haynes, guys who were, or Catfish Hunter, guys who were way far down the Jaws list, you know, in terms of their regular season value, but had some shining moments in the postseason. the Jaws list, you know, in terms of the regular season value, but had some shining moments in the postseason. Oral, you know, had great ones in obviously 88, but he also had, you know, he also had a nice run in 1995 with the Indians after he'd had shoulder surgery, after he'd gone through, you know, a surgery that was almost as revolutionary as Tommy John's surgery for his labrum by the same doctor, Dr. Frank Jobe. You there's something there, but I can't put him in before I got David Cohen and Brett Saberhagen because I think those guys are legitimately stronger.

They can't even get on the ballot. But everybody else, I mean, Joe Carter, come on. He's on the ballot because of one hit. Will Clark, I think, is sort of the Don Mattingly of the ballot. Boy, there was a time when Will Clark was, you know, one of the best hitters in baseball and maybe, you know, the best first baseman in baseball, but that time just did not last all that long. Who else we got?

Trying to think who else was on the player side on that thing. Yeah, but Harold Baines, Albert Bell. Yeah, you know, Bell had a brief peak where he just put up monster numbers. Baines, you know, professional hitter. I mean, you know, like ultimate, you know, almost the ultimate compiler, but just not quite, didn't have quite the value, didn't have, like he wasn't as good a hitter as Edgar Martinez, and he had almost as many games at DH as Edgar did.

You know, you just, you can't justify that. It's the other side of the ballot. The non-players is a little bit more interesting, at least. I think you could look at Piniella and Davy Johnson and Charlie Manuel and see, you know, there are managers who they sort of resemble in the Hall of Fame, but none of them quite separate from the pack.

And, you know, Johnson has the high winning percentage in a short career, likewise with Manuel Piniella, long career. They all only have the one championship, and Manuel's the only one who got back to a second World Series even. And to me, I think that's a deal breaker. I know it's hard to get back to the World Series, but you got to win that second pennant. Why is Jim Leland not on this ballot? He's got three pennants in the championship and a winning percentage that's right there with Piniella. But the one I keep coming back to as the standout is George Steinbrenner. I mean, love him or hate him. I, you know, he's, he rebuilt the Yankees into, you know, the most valuable property in professional sports and put money back into the team in a way that, God, you

know, we need this, this game right now needs, needs a dozen Steinbrenners who want, who want to win first and, you know, damn the cost. Yeah. As opposed, as opposed to those 80s free agent contracts. Yeah. Well, just like the mandate first to win. And I think obviously the two suspensions and the reputation deserved from the 70s of being quite the tyrant work against him. But he did change. He did stay out of the way of his baseball operations in the second phase of his career. He did stay out of the way of his baseball operations in the second phase of his career. And you obviously have firsthand experience inside the Yankee organization to get a little bit of a look at that.

But, yeah, I think you can't tell the story of baseball without George Steinbrenner. Full stop. And there's nobody else on that ballot with the possible exception of Smith, really, who had that saves lead for more than a decade. You could maybe say that about maybe Hershiser, but it's just, this is, this is a weak class by comparison. Yeah. All right. Well, I'm glad we could get you on before you are fully embroiled. I know it has begun, but it has begun, but you know, look, if I got tired of doing this, I wouldn't,

I wouldn't dive into it with both, you know it as wholeheartedly as I do before Thanksgiving. So, you know, this is fun for me, especially at this time of year, when there's not much going on in free agency. You might as well talk about this stuff because everybody's talking about where's Manny Machado going? Where's Bryce? You know, the world does not need me weighing in on that. Manny Machado going, where's Bryce? The world does not need me weighing in on that. I'd much rather weigh in on this ahead of his many profiles of all the Candidates on the ballot this year At Fangraphs.com Thank you Jay. Alright sure thing Ben thanks a lot

So that will do it for today and For this week. Thanks to listener John For drawing our attention to Connor's Tweet and thanks to everyone For listening. Hope you had a nice Thanksgiving And if you are grateful for this podcast You can show it by signing up on Patreon at patreon.com slash effectively wild, pledging some small monthly amount to keep the podcast going, as have the following five

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