Effectively Wild: A FanGraphs Baseball Podcast - Effectively Wild Episode 1757: Farewell to Rhubarb

Episode Date: October 10, 2021

Meg Rowley and guest co-host Mike Ferrin of MLB Network Radio discuss his recent trip to Monument Valley before recapping the weekend’s ALDS and NLDS action and looking ahead to what might come next, including thoughts on the Giants’ approach to platooning, Cody Bellinger‘s season-long slump, AJ Pollock‘s past postseason woes, the Brewers offense, Eduardo […]

It's my dad, he gave my name Now my mama keep saying Hello and welcome to episode 1757 of Effectively Wild, a Fangraphs baseball podcast brought to you by our Patreon supporters. I'm Meg Rowley of Foundrafts and I am joined this morning by friend of the podcast, MLB Network Radio and D-Vax Radio star, Mark Farron. Mark Farron. Wow. Wow, that's a throwback. Had you been planning that one? No, I'm just very tired, Mike. Oh, that's a good one. Well, it's a good way to start. Good morning. Good morning. I made you wake up early to record this because some of us get up at 5 a.m during the week and so like we have no problem being up and adam at nine o'clock on a sunday so here we are here we are well i appreciate both your willingness to come on the show and your willingness to stay after loving your name it's

okay it's a you know it's a long-standing joke back from a podcast I used to host where everybody called me Mark, so it works. There you go. Mike, thanks for joining me. Hey, I'm happy to take over Fangraft Audio this week. Yeah, you've been doing some heavy lifting for us. You'd think I had a book or something to promote, but no, that's not the case. I'm just buddy hacking. Well, we appreciate you coming on um we're gonna answer some listener emails in the back half of this show and even do a staff blast but before we do that we have some division series to talk about and my understanding is that you uh you were away for part of this so you are the perfect person to talk about it. I mean, I clearly was paying attention.

We took an overnight trip up on Friday, Saturday to go to Monument Valley, which I highly recommend. It's where, if you're not familiar with the Southwest, that's where like all the John Ford Westerns were shot. You know, the searcher, stagecoach. And there's actually a hotel right on in Navajo Nation that's right up against it. And so the view from our hotel room was of the Mittens and Merrick Butte. Like, it was insane. Like, I can't wait to go back. It was just like the best 24 hours.

But, of course, I paid attention to what was going on and got to watch a good chunk of the games because, hey, that's my job. Well, and you also did a little baseball on the radio, which must make you feel right at home, right? Yeah. I mean, listen, I like listening to baseball on the radio. So I'm a throwback in that regard. Or what do we call it now?

We don't call them radio and TV anymore. It's audio and video, right? That's what I've been told that the kids are learning in the colleges now, is audio and video. Audio and video in pursuit of content. Well, on our last episode, I previewed the AL division series with Eric Langenhagen, and we held off on the NL just for time. And we're happy to have you because you have seen just a great deal of NL baseball this year, given your job, and in particular, a lot of the Dodgers

and the Giants. So I guess my first question for you, Mike, is going into that series between two teams that have won more than 100 games, what were your expectations for LA and San Francisco and the NLDS they might give us? I mean, I think outside of the final and actually seeing the Giants maybe make a base running mistake yesterday, I think it was going to be pretty tight. You know, I think the Giants are a fascinating team, and I've talked plenty about it this year in multiple platforms, in that they just always seem to have the platoon advantage, right? They always seem to have it both from a pitching and from an offensive side. So I think, you know, they've been able to win a lot of margins that way, whereas I don't think that they're, from a true talent level, they're as deep as the Dodgers are, even though this isn't, and I would add the caveat that I don't think that they're from a true talent level, they're as deep as the Dodgers are, even though this isn't, and I would add the caveat that I don't think this is quite as deep a Dodger

team as we've seen in the postseason over the last, you know, three years at least. So I don't think that they necessarily have the same level of talent, but I think their execution is outstanding. And, you know, Wilmer Flores, poor base running decision aside, last night they generally don't beat themselves on defense, on the base paths. And I think they've done a really good job of getting the matchups that they want at the key times that they want them. And so that, to me, has been really the giant story this year and why they were able to not just stay with LA, but actually beat them in the end.

And, you know, and add in that you get a bunch of guys that have 90th percentile projections that they had, and all of a sudden that leads to a team that probably is more middle of the pack from a projection standpoint ending up with 107 wins. Yeah, they've been an interesting team to watch. I've talked about this a fair amount on our podcast, but they seem as if given how greatly they defied preseason expectations as if you would look at their underlying stats and say,

oh, there's a lot of smoke here. This isn't a team that's actually as good as this. And I think you're right that they, from a true talent perspective, don't really match the Dodgers, but they're not a mirage either, right? They're a very good team, I think, for the reasons that you stated. I think you're right about the Dodgers. You know, you look at this lineup going into last night and they're without Max Muncy. Presumably he will be able to, or hopefully he'll be able to rejoin them later in the postseason should they advance, but it, you know it required Cody Bellinger to go back to first base. I want to ask about him in particular, someone who got to see him in person this year.

Just what you attribute his struggles to, because it seems like it can't just be the injury, right? You looked at some of the at-bats he had last night and it reminded me a lot of some of his early postseason runs in those great early years where it's just like he can't lay off back foot breaking stuff had last night and it reminded me a lot of some of his early postseason runs in you know those great early years where it's just like he can't lay off back foot breaking stuff and the approach seems all out of whack so what has been your experience of Cody Bellinger this season I mean I think there's a couple things that are at play I do think the injuries have had an impact because

remember he had pretty significant shoulder surgery coming into the year and then he broke his leg right and now he's playing with a broken rib. So there's been a few things that have impacted him. I think the other thing is that in searching to close up some of his holes over the course of the last several seasons, I think he has opened up some more to him. And the best comp I can come up with is Jason Hayward. You know, if you think about Hayward in his early career with the Braves, he was a really dynamic, powerful offensive force.

And I think he heard the chirping about the strikeouts and tried to do a little bit too much to change it as opposed to just being who he is. And I think with – and now you end up with this hitter who just looks uncomfortable every time he steps in the box. I don't – you know, he tries to make himself smaller, tries to use the whole field. And listen, Hayward still has the talent to be able to be impactful. Whatever changes he's made hasn't allowed to find a level of consistency like what we saw when he first burst on the scene with Atlanta. And I think there's something with that with Bellinger. I think at times he has gotten away from using the athleticism that he has to really impact a game. And that started a couple of years ago when he made some pretty major setup changes. And then he had a really good year.

And then last season was disastrous, but he just never looked comfortable. His timing looked off. You know, I think his swing is always going to have a tendency to get long just because he's got long arms. But he just is like, it never seems like he is in sync. And I wonder how much he just needs to go take a deep breath, go for a walk, go spend a couple of you know maybe go camp out a couple of nights out in the desert monument valley yeah maybe that's what it is yeah

i was gonna say even closer like you can go up to scottsdale and walk through the parks and and just like kind of clear his head on it because there's a lot more in there i mean even you know the double he hit last night now granted it was a fastball that was what middle away and yeah, middle away. And, you know, with his length, that's probably going to be a little bit easier pitch for him to get to. But I think that there are still enough things that he does well that he can get that back. But he's, it has to be frustrating for him and for Dodgers fans to see somebody who is this supremely talented struggle like he has this year and last. Yeah, I think it's hard when a guy has literally been an MVP to not feel some amount of frustration when this is the result you have, even when you're conscious of the effect that the injuries might be having on him. Yeah, I liked

this note from Fabian Ardaia's game story last night that he turned around that 95 mile an hour fastball, and it was just the third time all season that he had done that for an extra base hit and just his ninth hit period. And when you look at the rest of his evening, he has that great hit, but then his three strikeouts look exactly like the strikeouts that we've seen for him. So I don't know that we can walk away from this thinking that he's fixed, but it has to feel good to kind of get the monkey off your back a little bit if you're Cody Ballinger. Yeah. I mean, I thought he had better at bats in the wildcard game. I thought that there were some moments down the stretch where

everybody's kind of grasping at trying to figure out how to get Bellinger right. So when he goes, what, 6 for 12 or something like that over the last week, or whatever it was, or 6 for 18, I think it was, something like that, but still with half a dozen strikeouts, you're like, well, there's some growth in there. at least he's putting a ball in play some but it just doesn't like it doesn't feel like he has been in sync at all now that said he wasn't last year for the 2020 season either right and then he was pretty good in the playoffs so you know there there's there's some of this is sample sizing i think some of it is the injuries i think

some of it is maybe some over adjustments but in the end like he's a guy that you have to worry about in the lineup because yeah you can pitch to him but if you make a mistake he has more talent than a lot of other guys and so you he can burn you so it's and and you know listen with the injuries that they they've had and i think the muncie one is significant i I mean, as big as the injury was for the Giants and losing Brandon Bell, and that was a significant injury, I think they're better equipped to handle that because of the way their roster is constructed than with the Dodgers and losing Muncie. Muncie is a really tough out. He doesn't get enough credit for being as selective as he has. I mean, that guy just never seems to chase a pitch out of the strike zone,

and it's frustrating to watch. So if they can get anything out of Bellinger, having that guy who has that kind of talent can help to fill some of that, even if you're not necessarily counting on it. Right, yeah. It's funny to think of the Dodgers famously deep and worried that they're not going to be able to sort of counter with matchups what the Giants do, but it does have that feel of, you know, Muncy just being so much better.

It's also strange to look at a lineup that has Betts, Seager, both Turners and Will Smith and say, oh, gosh, I don't know, man, are they going to be able to sort it out? But I think it is a testament to just how tough and out he has been and how productive he's been at the plate and how afraid we are of A.J. Pollock and his postseason performance, which has been not good until this point. So, you know, it's funny how we get obsessed over small sample sizes when it comes to October, right? Yeah, there was somebody, and I can't remember who, it was undoubtedly a mutual friend of ours who last night was tweeting about their concern with intentionally walking Pollock ahead of the pitcher as if as if that was a bad decision last night like pitching to AJ Pollock because of his postseason stress like did you look at AJ Pollock season like the guy had a 900 OPS like he had an unbelievable year right and so because he you know wasn't quite as hot

over the last two weeks of the season, you're really telling me that you'd rather pitch to him in a key situation in the first inning rather than getting the largely free pass of getting to the pitcher. And I get it. It burned him in the end, right? Julio Rios gets a base hit, whatever. There's nothing you can do about it at that point. But to me, that was a no-brainer decision. I mean, even with Pollock's struggles, I mean, that's not just a bona fide major league hitter. That's a well above average major league hitter who's hitting in the eighth spot. So I can't remember who it was that was diving into recency bias on it, but it was like, wait a second, what are we doing here? Come on, lighten that up.

Yeah, I think that your reaction is the right one. I also can appreciate how with Pollock, you know, being slowed by the hamstring injury and his again, I am not encouraging anyone to get overly fussed about postseason plate appearances. I don't think they really have any correlation year to year. I will say he has hit 167 to 244, 204, and 58 postseason plate appearances for Los Angeles prior to this year. And I think that when you go 0 for 13 with 11 strikeouts in 2019, people are going to say, oh gosh, with a hamstring, it's just going to compound into his usual postseason woes.

We're very inclined to believe in hauntings in October, Mike. This is a spooky season tis the month so this series is now knotted up one-to-one it'll go back to los angeles it's sort of interesting i love it when the nlds is is knotted like this because you're getting a fresh three-game series right it's like everything is new except that you have to carry over your fatigue from the first two games and if you're the, you have to deal with Max Scherzer. So I don't envy them that task. Although Scherzer's last three starts haven't been great.

Again, we've run into recency bias on here, right? So maybe it's nothing. Maybe it's something. I mean, really, he wasn't sharp. I mean, I thought Doc did the right thing in getting him when he got him in the wild card game, as frustrated as Max may have been. He wasn't pitching well. You know, that's where the eye test matters.

Yeah, he was certainly laboring. And I'm always surprised by how hard we are on managers when they are what we deem to be overly aggressive in the wild card. And I appreciate, you know, feeling nervous that you're going to burn arms for future series or that, you know, all things being equal, you just might want to stick with Scherzer. But it's just, you know, you can't worry about future use problems. Right. Future you doesn't exist if you don't get out of that game. So what's the Stephen Goldman used to love dropping the Casey

Stengel line right about why save a pitcher for tomorrow? Tomorrow it might rain. Right. And I think you've seen that like in the evolution. I've been thinking about this a lot. I realize it's not the National League series that we're talking about, but like Tony La Russa has this tremendous and well-earned reputation as being an excellent bullpen manager. You know, the last pennant he won in that championship series, his relievers recorded more outs than his starters. You know, it almost kind of started the trend of what we've seen. And yet we've seen managers be far more aggressive than him in this postseason. And the ones that you feel like you have the most confidence in, in making the right decision,

Kevin Cash and last year's World Series notwithstanding. I know that that blew up a lot, but, you know, Blake Snell has a pretty strong history of not going deep into games at that point. So, so like Kevin Cash, Alex Cora, Craig Council, you know, those are some of the better strategies, Dave Roberts. And I think Gabe has done a good job this year too. Like those are guys that are super like at the first sign of trouble, they know what the data says. They know what their eyes are telling them or what, what they feel like they they're getting in terms of feedback and they're going to make a move. I mean, Gabe talked about it last night with Gossman.

He said the feedback, you know, he let Gossman hit for himself, right? Going into what was it, the sixth? And that was kind of a key moment at the end because you're hoping to start a rally with the top of the lineup coming out. But he was letting the eye test help to dictate that. He was talking to Buster. He was talking to, he said he was talking to Gossman. And the feedback was the same. He was on a roll, you know, and you're on a roll until you're not, I get it. But, but like at the same time, like you're, you have to be adaptable.

And so was he slow on the trigger there? I wouldn't say that necessarily. Although I do like playing for offense in the national league game. I'm a big fan of that, especially if you have a deep bullpen like the Giants have. But at the same time, you're letting the situation dictate what's going on. And I think some of these managers are really, really good at this now. And it's not. Alex Cora pulling Eduardo Rodriguez after nine batters in game one was a brilliant strategy. It didn't end up working out because their offense couldn't get going against Tampa Bay, but he was spot on with it. He got them out of there

and Pavetta pitched really well. Right. And we saw sort of the version of that that works in the very next game, right? Where Sale was struggling, they pulled him in favor of Houck. And then in addition to him being able to cruise, they actually scored some runs. And you saw what happens when a team that has to deal with a lineup that hits lefties really well tries to mitigate that advantage, right? So yeah, I think that people will look back on that move and perhaps second guess it. But like you said, since he had almost been pinch hit for with Tommy LaStella back in the second, he had retired like nine straight batters. And he had seemed to settle in and have better control than he had had in the first two

innings he was working his slider pretty well which had been sort of absent for him for long stretches so I don't know I I think that you always have to worry about the Dodgers like putting four runs up on you but um it didn't strike me as particularly egregious uh although I wouldn't have had an issue with Kapler pulling him in favor of his bullpen either. I don't know. It must be, being a major league manager doesn't seem like a fun job a lot of the time. Well, no, but I mean, it's, you know, heavy lies the crown, right? So if your players execute, you look like a genius. If they don't,

whether, you know, process result, you know, we're only concerned about the results in the aftermath, but the process that goes into it doesn't matter. And I, and I think in the end that most of the, most managers get way too much crap for the way that they manage games. I mean, I really do because in the end it comes down to execution and it's a lot easier to blame the manager's decision when a decision is made in hindsight than it is to look at the execution of the pitchers. And the odds are overwhelming at this point that most managers, if not all of them, have a significant amount of information that is helping them make their decisions for them, that are the right decisions. But we're still dealing with probability.

And the thing about probability is, I mean, I probably don't need to tell a Fangraphs audience this, but it means that things are probable to happen. It doesn't mean that it's definite. So, you know, do I need to tell a Fangraphs audience that? I think that our readers have not been the issue when it comes to understanding our playoff odds. But it's probably not the worst to remind folks of these sorts of things. Do you think that Adam Wainwright maybe just didn't have a full grasp of how this works? I think that he was at least partially kidding. I'm sure he was.

You know, he doesn't strike me as a dense guy. You know, I think he seems pretty sharp, at least, you know, when he's been in the booth. I've been pretty happy with his approach to calling games. He is witty. Yeah, I think it tends to be a good indicator of how people think about these things. And like I said, I need all sorts of motivation to get through a day where I'm sitting at my desk editing stuff. So I can only imagine what it's like to go through 162 games log and the things that you might pin up as bulletin board material. You know, it's, I don't know, the whole thing

seemed a little silly, but we do take the opportunity to educate and correct the record when it is given to us. So well, I do think I do think that one of the things that was that is really great about that was the number of people who retweeted as if like, see, you can't trust the projections that the number of writers who had written the cardinals off as well you know like but no admission to that like i wrote the cardinals off i've been pretty open about that like i didn't think they had a prayer in hell yeah they really didn't until they won 17 in a row yeah but like which is incredible you know like it's also that that's the difference maker in it but yeah no that's that's i thought it went it was funny yeah, no, that's, I thought it went, it was funny.

I thought it was funny. Yeah. So now this Dodgers giant series, like I said, we'll go back to Los Angeles. Max Scherzer will take on Alex Wood as the game three starter. Our odds are zips game by game odds and series by series odd. Courtesy of Dan Zimborski have the Dodgers as 57.9% favorites to advance to the NLCS. Although, as you said, these things can shift around because probabilities are only that probable. But one series that is much closer in terms of our projections for its possible outcome

is the NLDS between the Braves and the Brewers. I think that we saw sort of the platonic ideal of how these teams want to navigate the postseason in each of their wins, and they just happen to trade them off. So Port Charlie Morton on the back end of getting burned despite a strong start in game one, and then Brandon Woodruff sort of answering in game two. Now we will have this series shift to Atlanta

with Ian Anderson and Freddie Peralta. I want to start with the Brewers. What are your impressions of this Brewers team? Because I picked them to win the World Series because, I don't know, I like to be feisty. And then I was reminded of just how light their offense can be at times. Well, I think you have to give a little bit of credit to Charlie Morton in game one, too. This has been one of the better pitchers in the majors for the last half dozen years. And I think that the Braves rotation has been a little bit overlooked because it's not the names we were anticipating necessarily, right? So Max Fried has been great. And Ian Anderson, who's pitching game three, has been outstanding.

But the Brewers' offense built some pretty big innings against the bullpen. They just didn't cash them in. And I thought that, to me, was going to be the difference in this series. I think you saw a little bit different stylistically between the two managers, too, in the way that Craig Council handled game one. I don't think there's a better tactician right now in baseball than Craig Council as far as a manager goes. But using Peralta and Hauser in those key spots because he doesn't have Devin Williams or Brent Suter, I think that's where the advantage comes from Milwaukee on the pitching side

is that they're going to have more arms deployable out of the bullpen and they're treating every game as a must win, which I really appreciate because that should be the way you treat playoff games is that you have to empty the tank every single night because you, you, you only are ever playing two or maybe three games in a row. So get after it, win today. And then you don't have to worry as much about tomorrow. Let the chips fall where they may. You're right that the offense is a little bit, a little bit thinner, but, but it's not

like Atlanta has had a huge offensive series, what they've had four runs scored. And Atlanta's not a crazy on-base lineup. They have, you know, I think if you attack them with right-handers, which is what the Brewers will continue to do, for the most part, you can have success against them. You know, Duvall will run into some and hit some long home runs and is a pretty good down-lineup hitter.

I think Soler has made some adjustments, which make him a you know a pretty good down lineup hitter i think soler's made some adjustments which make him a little tougher to pitch to but he's still pitchable too especially from righties like even albies is not as good from the left side as he is the right by a fairly wide margin so i think that that you don't need to have like this isn't going to be a series i don't think where you're going to have like an 11-10 game at all. So you need just enough offense. And you're right. The Brewers might be a bit thin in that because of the season that Yelich has had.

But I think they have enough. I really do. I felt like watching them through most of the summer, from the time they got Adamas and then when they had a healthy Rowdy Tellez, which they seem to have now. Yes. time they got Adamas and then you know when they had a healthy Rowdy Tellez which they seem to have now yes you know with Tellez and and Eduardo Escobar against lefties like it's helped to balance out that lineup some and I think that they're I think they're a little bit underappreciated you know obviously Garcia had a really good year yeah 29 home runs and so like I think they're a little bit better than people realize but I think that the first two games you have to give a lot of credit to to specifically Morton and Freed for shutting them down.

What's it like for you to get to watch someone like Esquivar get a postseason shot? You know he's like my favorite player. Yeah, and he was quite beloved in Arizona. So what is that like for you as a broadcaster? I imagine a little bittersweet, but mostly happy? I'm just so happy for him. He's legitimately just an absolutely wonderful person. I mean, I remember when they made the trade for him talking to some of the front office guys and they were like, listen, they did their typical digs on the makeup. How does he get along with people in the clubhouse? What's he like off the field? Doing all this stuff, right? And they were

like, we're not sure we've ever had a guy that's come back with no negatives. There are no red flags to him. He's a tremendous person. He was so involved in the Phoenix community. The people in community relations talked about how they never had a player who was willing to volunteer to the level that he had. Basically, every day he was like, give me something else to do. I want to help someone else out. I really felt like he should have won the Clemente Award a couple of years ago because his level of dedication is spectacular to helping out. So this is the kind of person he is.

And then like the energy you see on the field, the happy-go-lucky. I mean, like he's overcome a lot in his life and his career. I mean, he nearly got released out of the complex leagues by the White Sox. Ozzie Keenan had to go to bat for him. So I couldn't be more thrilled for Escobar. I hope we were watching yesterday and we had gotten home and, you know, he comes up with a couple men on and I looked at my wife and I said, God, I hope he gets a three run over.

Like, and it's nothing against the Braves. I'm not picking on the Braves, but just like, I want to see Escobar have that big moment because I think so highly of Escobar. Yeah. And just like a willingness to, you know, when you go to a new team, a willingness to do what's necessary from a lineup perspective. I know he's been playing first base for Milwaukee a good amount after mostly being on the other side of the infield the last couple of years. So he just seems like he's game to do what he needs to to try to help the team win.

And he's been a worthy addition to that squad. Like I said, our playoff odds, our game-by-game odds have this quite tight Braves 50.2% favorites. So basically a tie between the two teams. As you said, we'll have Ian Anderson going against Freddie Peralta and then, you know, against Adrian Hauser. And then if we need a game five, we pivot back to Morton and Burns at the top of things. I didn't make you make a prediction in Dodgers-Giants, but I will ask you to do one here.

Who do you have taking this series and advancing? You know, I have not had to make any predictions at all this postseason. So I really appreciate you putting me on the spot. Well, you can duck out of this one if you want, but I'm going to make you predict White Sox Astros then. And we will know by the end of the day, whether or not you were right. No, I actually, I like the Brewers in the series. I have, I mean, I'm,

I'm with you. I thought early on, they were a team that had a chance to go to the world series. I think they got over, I think even without Williams, I mean, I think we had a tendency probably because he is such an important reliever to overstate the impact that he could have on a series, especially with as many arms and as creative as Craig Council is. I just like their pitching a little bit better, especially as you get later into the game than Atlantis. Now that said, I know Boxberger, you know, worked around some trouble the other night.

Like Brad Boxberger can be homer prone and that's not, I don't think he's a great matchup on Milwaukee side for the Atlanta hitters. So like that's something to circle in the series and keep an eye on. But I really think that, I think in the end the Brewers win it, but I wouldn't be surprised if it goes five. I mean, I'd be shocked at this point if it didn't go the distance. Boxberger is one of those guys who, you know, when you encounter a player at a particular moment in their career can color your expectations for

them going forward. And I remember watching him throw at like a driveline pro day a couple of years ago. I think he had then released and I was like, oh, Brad Boxberger is just like, he's done now. And then he was like, no, I'm not. Well, that color is a lot better. I mean, watching him yesterday, that cutter that he's throwing is a way better pitch than it ever was, and he's using it, I would guess, more. I haven't looked at the data on it to back it up, but he was always fast's made him effective. He's always been a guy that's been in the strike zone. So, you know, walks aren't necessarily an issue with him or generally haven't been an issue. But I think that cut fastball that he has now is just, it's just enough of a difference and he throws it really flipping hard

that I think it has made a big difference, at least in my estimation, as to what Boxberger has done. Yeah. It answers the question of why did this happen? And then we will shift to the American League. I'll remind everyone we're recording on Sunday morning, so by the time folks listen to this, at least one of these series might be decided. So let's start with Houston and Chicago.

And I guess the way I'll just ask this is, did you expect better from this series? Because I kind of expected better from this series. I kind of did. Yeah. I mean, I kind of did. You know, but there was something. So we had, I'll name drop here. We had A.J. Hinch on.

He's working as one of our postseason analysts for us on our show. And we were talking the other day about the White Sox. And one of the things that he pointed out was that they will give up a free 90 feet in there. And I think the defense has been a huge impact in this series so far. So between Grandol not able to block a pitch in game one, and then Mankata's decision to try and throw home to get Altuve, which led really to a couple of runs in that frame, or to Lurie Garcia, who's not really a right fielder, getting turned around twice on a ball over his head on Saturday, Friday. Friday, what day is it? In game two. You know, I think those were a couple of things. They've had some weird things that have happened defensive

positioning wise, which I can't believe are because they've done a poor job of positioning their defenders so much as that's baseball, Susan. But like they've had a couple of that and they've certainly had base runners, despite the fact that they're this pretty high ground ball offense. I mean, they really they put together some late rallies in game one. They seemed like they had a ton of traffic in game two and just weren't able to cash it in. So, yeah, I mean, I guess I'm a little bit surprised from it. I kind of agree with Tony La Russa's assessment that they played better than what the result ended up being in game two. But, yeah, I mean, their backs are against it.

And I was really hoping this one was going to push to the limit. But, man, it's Houston's offense, good or what? Like, you just keep getting reminded. Yeah, and I think, you know, especially in game one, it was just like a particularly bad matchup for Lance Lynn when you look at what he is most likely to throw and then what Houston is able to do with fastballs. It was just like a recipe for disaster for them. I, I think that I expected more out of Chicago's bats than we have seen. And I don't say that to knock the Houston starters,

who I think have been quite good, but it is just when you have that entire lineup whole and healthy, which they were not able to do for most of this year, you know, they have impact bats all up and down that lineup, and we just really haven't seen them be able to string together rallies

so double play prone, my goodness. So that series potentially concludes today with Dylan Cease and Luis Garcia on the mound. If it should go to four, we're expected to see Michael Kovac and Jose Urquidy. But like you said, Chicago's up against it. We have Houston 85.9% favorites to win this series right now. I don't like this matchup for the White Sox either. I mean, I think they'll be okay against Luis Garcia, although he's a guy that's worth watching, I think. I mean, I don't know.

Have you seen him much this year? Because the little I have has been pretty impressive. Yeah, I think that he is quite, quite good. He ranked in Ben Clemens and Kevin Goldstein's trade value series in a way that I think people at the time thought was unusually high given how little major league experience he has, but he's been quite impressive for them. I agree though. I think that, you know, I don't know that I feel great about my season coming down to like what version of Dylan Cease you're getting. Yeah. That would make me nervous. Against this lineup in particular. Yeah. I think that they will make him work. Now, Against this lineup in particular, I think that they will make him work.

Now, C certainly has the most overwhelming stuff. Incredible. I think that that's, I think, yeah, I mean, that's, it's a little bit of a concern today. Yeah, I think that he can be dominant. He can also have long stretches where the control and command are just not there. And against a lineup that is patient and doesn't strike out as much as you might expect given what we tend to expect of potent offenses these days i think it could end up being a long day for them if he's not able to dial it in and what happens you know like we're just talking about the managerial decisions does tony go with him one hitter too late or does he

make the adjustment and get him out one hit or two early you know like i would rather that at this point i mean they should have crochet cope you, I know they haven't really named a starter for game four. Like they should have all hands on deck or anybody who's capable of pitching because it's an elimination game. So how does Tony manage it? Does he try and let him work out of jams or the first sign of trouble? Is he on to the next guy and then to Rodon?

Like that, I think, is really fascinating, too, because he could he could really upset Houston's offense a little bit by using a lot of different pitchers today. Right. Yeah. I think, you know, it's so interesting because I think our impression of him coming into the year was that he might just by virtue of how long it had been since he had managed not be super up on how modern bullpens are deployed, despite having been aggressive with them in prior postseason series. And then you look at this White Sox bullpen, and it seems pretty mistake-proof, right? Because it's just so dominant top to bottom, but you do have to pull the lever at the right time still. So yeah, it'll be curious to see how that ends up going for them. What was your reaction to his comment about Craig Kimbrell in the setup role? Did you

see that one? I read it in James Feagin's article, basically like, listen, he's had to adjust to something that he's not done and he hasn't been comfortable with. And I keep thinking like, well, Liam Hendricks has no problem coming in with men on base if that's an issue, right? Like, so why don't you just flip them? Like, I know that Kimbrell hasn't thrown the ball all that well with the results. I haven't been all that good from, you know, since the trade to the White Sox, but like, okay, so if you know that's that well, or the results haven't been all that good from, from, you know, since the trade to the white socks, but like, like,

okay. So if you know, that's an issue, like why haven't you adjusted it? That's a big question. I have. Yeah. I found that remark curious also.

I mean, I imagine that the answer he would give is probably that because he has not been as effective since coming over from the Cubs, that he's just been nervous to put him in high leverage spots but that answer doesn't really hold for me because they've had this division in hand like if you're if any team's able to tinker and kind of see if an adjustment in how you're deploying guys works you'd think it would be Chicago right it's not like they were really worried about anyone behind them so yeah I found I found that answer too. I never know how much credence to give the idea of role. I think that analytic types, we tend to maybe underestimate the degree to which

comfort matters for guys. I think it matters some, but you would think that, I don't know. Well, I think if you have comfort, if a guy has comfort in a specific role, then that should weigh more heavily in the decision, right? That's the thing is, if that's really an issue for Craig Kimbrell, then that should be more heavily in the decision, right? Like that's the thing is like if that's really an issue for Craig Kimbrell, then that should be a much more driving force than somebody like Liam Hendricks who doesn't give a damn what inning he pitches in. He just wants to yell and scream and get outs, right? So that's fine. It doesn't make Craig Kimbrell lesser or more or anything like that.

Just adapt to the personnel that you have. Yeah. I also think that Liam Hendricks should just be miked for every single game he appears in. real lesser or more or anything like that just adapt to the personnel that you have yeah i also think that liam hendricks should just be miked for every single game he's the best it's incredible my patience for that tends to be limited because it can it can be kind of gimmicky after a while but um you know him him being miked up and not realizing his mic was working in the all-star game remains a 2021 highlight as far as I'm concerned. That was the good stuff.

It's like, just pay the fines, man. Let the dude swear on the mound. This is great TV. And then we will shift to Tampa and Boston. They are also knotted up 1-1. We talked a little bit about how Alex Cora sort of deployed his starters and bullpen already. I will admit that when Tampa hit a grand slam

to pull ahead of Boston and Sale didn't make it to the second inning, I was like, oh no, Boston might be on its way to an early exit here. But having righted the ship and getting to return to Fenway, what are your expectations for the Red Sox here? Yeah, I don't know.

I don't know what to expect of them. I mean, I think the best thing they have going for them is that they should have an advantage, at least in the starting matchup today. I mean, Rasmussen is kind of a, I mean, he's got multiple pitches, but really it's his fastball that's important. And you would think that they're probably trying to count on him one time through

and then we'll see what happens, right? Yeah. So I think that that should give them a little bit of an advantage there in that Eovaldi has been excellent this year and, you know, he is a guy that I would not feel bad about counting on in this game. He pitched really well in the wild card game. Like he wants to be out there. He's excited about it.

Like I think that's where the advantage goes. What was so interesting about Friday to me was that we haven't seen that Red Sox offense in like, what, a month? Right. Where they've shown up like that. Like they really did not finish the season well. No. And so like seeing them go off like that, it's like, okay, well, you know, JD Martinez on one leg has four hits. Like, is that, is that, you know, something that that's a precursor of what to come? That's the thing that I I'm kind of most curious about is, okay, how does Tampa Bay make the adjustment? Do they, they certainly have the arms that are capable of shutting down the Boston offense, but if that offense gets rolling and they're putting together quality at bats, it could be a really long day for Tampa Bay's pitching staff. So I'm now having a really tough time handicapping the rest of this series because I just don't like, if that's the real Red Sox

offense, it definitely changes my opinion on the series. Yeah. And it's interesting because it's like, and I've talked about this on the pod before that, like our impression of Tampa is one of, you know, all of these anonymous but excellent pitchers who are able to sort of find their way through and then just enough offense to to win and that really hasn't been the story of this team this year right they've been driven by how deep and excellent that lineup has been so in some ways I feel more confident in their ability to sort of hang in a game where you know Boston's bats get hot and they're able to, you know, have a night like they had on Friday.

You know, when you, like you said, when you have Martinez sort of on one leg still performing the way he did when Kiki Hernandez has the night that he has, you know, you think that that's going to be an advantage to the Red Sox hitters, but it's not like this Tampa lineup is incapable of putting, you know, big rallies together. So on that score, you, you kind of feel more comfortable with the Rays. But I think that when you look at the personnel that they have coming out of that bullpen, despite being able to cover so many innings with just, you know, not having a rotation really for the entire season, it isn't as quite deep or dynamic a group as we've seen from them in recent years. Yeah, I couldn't agree more.

And I think you hit on it. It's a really good offensive team. Oh, man. They are really good offensively. Franco changes the complexion of the line. Yeah. I mean, because he just does so much well at the top. And I think the other advantage that the Red Sox have in this

is that they're going to throw a lot of righties at them today. Right. Which is, like, lefties, like, you start looking at the numbers. Like, this is kind of my postseason prep. I go to a competitor's site, sorry, Baseball Savant, and pull up what their weighted on base average is for hitters and pitchers against opposite handedness. And you start looking down the list at what the Rays have. And if I can find the right windows, save here because I've turned into Jay Jaffe with 90 windows open right now.

The Rays against left-handed pitching are like, it's, you know, Zanino has a Wobo well over 500. Franco's is over 400. You know, they're like sixth best guy against righty, against lefties is Manuel Margot

who's at 326. Yeah. You know, so like you've got all of these, you're seventh best. Like you've got seven, you've got four dominant

hitters against lefties. One really good one in Yandy Diaz and two pretty damn good ones in Mejia and Margot that you have as options. So like to me, it's a big challenge to pitch to them with any left handers because of that.

And that I think that does complicate things a little bit for Alex Cora today. But his best relievers are right handed. You know, Brazier seems to be a guy that he really trusts. So I wouldn't be surprised if he's a guy with men on base in a big spot early in the game. And, you know, we'll just kind of see how they play it from there. But I don't like the matchup quite as well for them against the Evaldi as I would have against, you know, against the lefties that they have seen in that series. And it makes me wonder, too, like, what does he do with Eduardo Rodriguez and Chris Sale the rest of the way? Right.

Because that's not an advantage for them. No. Yeah. Well, we're guaranteed to have at least one more after this. So we'll have time to see them try to answer those questions. I think, Mike, are you ready to do some emails? I'm ready. I've never been more ready for anything.

All right. So let's go through some emails here. Our first one comes from Christian, who's a Patreon supporter. Thank you, Christian, who says, Hey, all. I'm listening to episode 1752 and just heard a listener's question about subtracting a strike for every ball thrown.

I have an alternate idea that I believe would serve a similar purpose, but also speed up the game. What if we had two zones? So basically you have the strike zone just like now, but then outside of that, there'd be the one ball zone. I imagine that it would be

maybe a couple of inches wide at most. Now, anything that is outside of that zone would count as two balls, incentivizing pitchers to be wary of throwing junk and staying closer to the strike zone and also speeding up at bats. So, Mike, do you think that Christian is right? Would this speed up the game? Would this incentivize offense? I just, the first reaction is like,

imagine how mad you're going to be at Angel Hernandez for missing a one ball versus two ball call, right? Yeah, we'd have to get rid of the K zone on broadcast because if we introduce this concept and then people are able to see how far off some umps are, there are going to be riots. I don't know that it's going to... I think it's creative. Yes. I don't know that it's going to – I think it's creative. Yes. But, I mean, I don't know.

When you're evaluating players or you're evaluating a matchup, I mean, do you really think that the disincentive to throw a pitch further off the plate seems to be impacting any pitcher today? It doesn't to me. I don't think that it impacts it that much. I mean, I think that the specter of giving up a free pass is like enough of a disincentive for pitchers to think about how they sequence pitches and where they put them. Like, I like that we keep trying to solve this problem on Effectively Wild because I think that walks are their own powerful disincentive to like not being able to command yourself so i but i think you're right

that modern pitchers are like pretty content to try to do what they think they need to to induce whiffs and and strikeouts and ground balls so i i don't know that this would necessarily change things all that much i also don't think it would it would speed up the game right because you'd be you would end up with just a lot more traffic on the bases. And even in today's game, like runs take time to score. So I don't imagine this speeds things up all that much. You know, as much as the three true outcomes get blamed for so much in baseball today, the walks are actually not nearly as big an issue.

I mean, I think that's the part that I think gets my attention in this is when you start looking back and you look at what was the walk percentage this year, just over 8%, right? It's held fairly consistently over the last several decades. But like you start going back and say since 1960, and you look and like 2000 had the highest walk rate and 99, which probably makes sense because that was you know bonkers offensive era but then we go to like 1970 which was a terrible year for offense you know and then like like there's only one year in the last i think the last 20 seasons there's only one year in the last 20 seasons that's in the top 19 out of that or two i guess there's 2020 and 2009 so like it's not like walk rate

is a huge issue in the game right now. That's not what's slowing it down. That's not what the concern should be. I think with anything that you're trying to do to improve baseball going forward, pitchers walk rates have held pretty consistently between seven and a half percent and nine and a half percent. That's what it is.

Yeah, the shift in the complexion of offense has not been around walks. It's been around strikeouts, right? And the concentration of offense in home runs. That's where we've seen the real shift in the last couple years. You're right. The walks are just sort of humming along, modest. Doing their thing.

Yeah, doing their thing. All right. This comes from listener peter who says this question is probably too trivial to answer on the pod oh no peter oh no but it is something that i often wonder about when watching a game why all the spitting is it just the chewing gum sunflower seeds and the boredom or are the spitters subconsciously mimicking the heroes from their youth i don't mind the spitting on the field so much and i get it after some strenuous physical activity but i especially do not understand the spitting in the dugout not just over the railing onto the field but in the

dugout that's like spitting in the office it must be terrible to walk around in the dugout the floor must look horrible yes though not all pitchers seem to be into it i don't recall seeing otani spit we you know are otani obsessed around here but i haven't seen as much otani as ben don't feel bad peter no one has oh and as a bonus can you tell me what rafael devers is always chewing on well you're around these guys mike what's with all spitting what's your explanation for spitting first of all i can answer that the dugout floor is disgusting at the end of a game like it, it is ridiculous. Because it's not just, it's sunflower seeds. It's gum. And gum.

But the biggest factor in this is tobacco juice. Yeah. You know, I mean, that's, I don't have a definite answer for this. But my guess would be that that's where it started from. Yes. And, you know, at least when I was a kid. Now, I'm an old man now. But when I was young, everybody was chewing tobacco.

And so that's where we started spitting was because they were doing it on the field. And, you know, I just don't think it's, I mean, it may not be the most sanitary thing, but like, is it, is it really worse than having a spit cup next to everybody? Yeah. I mean, I guess that on the one hand, the dugout floors are in worse shape, but on the other hand, the, the odds of spit cup related catastrophe are much lower so that part is good but i think the spit isn't the big dugout problem i think it's the fact that they like they literally it's gum it's gum who has to clean up the gum oh yeah that's a that's a thankless task there's a lot of tasks yeah you know i know that terry francona does a he has given interviews where he talks about

constructing a wad of of gum and seeds and chew yeah and then and then you just wonder like what is the area in front of him on the dugout rail look like like it's just gotta be a catastrophe and somebody has to deal with that every day i mean the thing is it's like if you are in charge of cleaning the dugout, I guess this is a would you rather. Would you rather it stay the same or would you rather there be a spittoon? Because if we're already concerned about pitchers commanding enough with a baseball in their hand, how do we feel about spittle? Yeah. Well, and I will say I'm often impressed by, you know, we should say that the rules around guys being allowed to chew have changed in a lot of places.

I think that across the league, they're not supposed to chew during games anymore, although they definitely still do chew during games. I'm always impressed by, I've noticed this with Cody Bellinger and I've noticed it with Jose Altuve. You know, guys on the field who are able to spit, they just spit these perfect tiny little pellets of spit. It never gets

stuck in their facial hair. It never is on them. You know, they're never like, oh, I got something on my face. I gotta... These are the things I notice. I don't know if that's useful, but... No, absolutely. This is somebody who constantly has shit stuck in his beard. Tiny, tiny perfect pellets of spit that just

go away. Is's a skill like do they get taught how to do this is this a thing that boys do with each other when they're young they practice spitting is this a thing that boys do yeah i think definitely definitely i mean there's there is definitely like there definitely is a loogie contingent in every middle school oh yeah so like and then there's contests on that. But it goes hand in hand with belching and farting. Like it's all the things that are disgusting. Yeah. No, it's definitely spitting.

Spitting contests, loogie contests. Yeah, that's a huge part of it. Yeah. So we just need to practice earlier, I suppose. Okay. This comes from Kip, another Patreon supporter. I was wondering if there could be a compromise with robo-umps. Could we have a system where managers could be allowed three to five strike challenges a game,

possibly only on the batting side to get a bad strike thrown out, and then on the pitching side, maybe one to three challenges a game? I feel like this might help some of the fears of robo-only baseball, where everyone tries to hit the corners like Sergio Romo. robo-only baseball where everyone tries to hit the corners like Sergio Romo. So what do you think about the ability to challenge a discrete number of ball and strike calls in a game? Okay. Well, I'm going to answer it with a question for you. Did you watch any Olympic volleyball? I did not. I am so excited to know where you're going. So Olympic volleyball, there is a challenge system that's in place for side outs that they look at.

There's a certain number that they can challenge a game. I think it's in both the beach and in the stadium volleyball. Okay. But it's basically that. Like there are a handful of borderline calls that can be challenged a game, and then they take a quick look at it, and they make a decision. It would basically be like the same thing in New York. So it didn't seem to slow down that game terribly bad. Now, maybe they have, what I don't know is do they have like the Hawkeye technology that's

now in ballparks that has been used in tennis for years to try and help do that. I mean, I guess they use something similar in competitive tennis too, in the big tennis tournaments with that. But I mean, it's not the worst idea in the world, but boy, that would be a really interesting strategic leverage play overall. I like this idea very much. I think that Ben and I will end up being persuaded on robot umps because we're weak-willed, if nothing else. But I think that the problem that people are trying to solve

when they say, ah, give it to the robots, is precisely what you're describing, right? Like the high leverage moment where a strike is called a ball or vice versa, and it changes the entire complexion of a bat or potentially a game. And those moments are the ones where we really are sort of prickly about the human element.

Whereas I think that most of the time, we're are sort of prickly about the human element, whereas I think most of the time we're generally comfortable with thinking about the strike zone sort of probabilistically, right? The borderline pitches are sort of in a gray zone and we like framing. This seems like it would be a fine compromise to me because since we have Hawkeye, you wouldn't even really have to call to New York for this, right? They could determine this in ballpark pretty quickly, so I don't know that it adds that much time, but it does give you sort of that pressure valve release for instances where an ump gets it really wrong and all of a sudden a rally is killed where you should have the ability to continue the at-bat because a called strike is incorrect. Do you miss rhubarbs at all? Do I miss rhubarbs? Like umpires and players and managers getting into it?

I like a little jawing. Because this would eliminate most of the jawing, I think, if something like this were to happen. I like a little bit of the jawing. I don't like it when it escalates too terribly much mostly because i have a weird sympathy for umpires and how hard their job is but there are some some pretty bad offenders i mean like when you watched last night's dodgers giants game that that zone was a little creative at times well who was working the plate i can't i can't remember my who could say i don't think it would eliminate all of the jawing though right i think the jawing is at times completely independent of the actual accuracy of the call, right?

I think that often managers are just, they're trying to make a point not only to the umpire, but to their guys. And I don't think they stop trying to make points to their guys about having their back just because all of a sudden we have greater precision in strike calls. If anything, I think we will continue to yell at umpires in a way that will eventually read as mean-spirited because they're not going to be making the ball in strike calls, and they're just going to be like, it is not me. It is that. It'll be like it was in the Fall League in 19 when they first broke this out and Geraldo Perdomo argued a pitch at the plate and then pointed upstairs

and then he kind of like threw his hands up at the computer. Yeah. Yes. It was great. I enjoyed, I am not recalling who the batter is now, but I do remember being there to watch someone literally flip off the track man unit at salt river in that,

in that fall league being like, so yeah, I don't, I don't think we're going to, we like yelling at people. It's, I don't know. It's a cultural.

I just think, I think we're limiting the number of like yelling at people. I don't know. It's a very cultural fascination that we have. I think we're limiting the number of times. Like already I've heard the complaints. This is now going back more than a decade, right, since we've had instant replay. But the only thing that you can argue or really get heated about is balls and strikes. Yeah. So now if you're starting to take away some of those pivotal pitches where, know the the one one or the say the two one pitch that ends up you're changing the complexity of an at-bat like it doesn't give you that chance

to have that as a release valve now maybe is that is that good or bad i don't know but i mean it is part of this is this is something i've clearly i've been thinking a lot about lately because there are a lot of people that i hear from who miss umpire player, umpire manager arguments from, you know, decades past. And if we're spending more time, it certainly seems like we're spending more time being like, listen, this is an entertainment industry, right? And we need to entertain the audience. Are we getting it wrong by trying to litigate this too much by not allowing there to be more disagreements? Is that part of the entertainment? You know, are those things that are, you know,

just like machismo boiling over part of the reason why we watch? Interesting. Interesting. I don't know. I'm going to have to think about that though. I still maintain that guys will find a way to yell, but it won't have quite the same flavor

that it does now, seemingly. Yeah. Okay. Let's take this one from listener Shyam. Shyam, I hope I'm pronouncing your name correctly. What if instead of separate nine inning games, we kept score across the entire three to four game series? Each individual game in a series would count as a round, with the preceding game's final score carried forward to the start of the next game. The team with the highest score at the end of the entire series would be declared the winner, i.e. and here we have an example, round one, Dodgers 5, Giants 0. Round two, Dodgers 1,

Giants 0. So the Dodgers at this point lead 6-0. Round three, Dodgers 0, Giants 7, and the Giants would win that series with a one run advantage. If the home team was winning in this scenario on a given day, they'd still hit in the bottom of the ninth. This would eliminate a lot of extra innings baseball and make rain delays less consequential.

People probably wouldn't tune in until the last day, but the potential for final drama would be massive as swinging a series would be much more consequential to a team's overall record than just a single game. This would be similar to test cricket where both teams get to bat twice through the order across five days. I mean, we found a way to get the Jays to the playoffs, right? Right. It is striking to me that in this year where there are teams missing from postseason action that I would like to see and that just barely missed, it seems more appealing than it

might in another year. Do you really think it would have positively impacted the Mariners? No, not them. They're weird and chaotic. I meant the Blue Jays. Oh, okay. No, I don't think that when you're sporting a negative run differential at the end of the season that there's much that can be done to improve your postseason chances other than being better at baseball.

But I think that there's that element. So I think about this with Baltimore in 12. And I did more research on this 10 years ago than I have on this year's Mariners team. But that was a team that their run differential, their negative run differential for most of the season was basically chalked up to four series. They got thumped by Texas a couple of times, right? And that ended up having a huge impact on them. And that was before they got the rotation figured out. And that was when bad Jake Arrieta was pitching right before he was good Jake Arrieta. And then he was

whatever Jake Arrieta is now that they, they really like, they were outscored by something like 70 or 80 runs over the course of like four series or five series. And, and they were winning all their other series and so did that you know have an impact on their run differential now overall they ended up in a positive number for the season but like could that be the case with with the mariners had they lost like those series to houston and it just been counted as a series because they were getting thumped would they have had a better record overall i don't think it's going to happen it would happen because we just love the individual game-to-game competition.

And quite frankly, that's one of the reasons why I love baseball is the grind of it. But that idea of compiling points over the course of three performances is interesting. I just think that you would be playing a 27-inning game in the end versus playing like like three nine inning ones yeah it would be interesting to see what this would do to sort of how pitchers are used although i don't know that it would change the answer all that much but it would be interesting to see you know if you get into a game where you're you know sort of in that final game and it's decisive of the series doesn't move guys around at all i don't think we would ever do this, but there is a part of me that appeals to sort of underlying metrics that is tempted by an approach that would perhaps better reward those teams that are good over the course of an entire series. But I

agree. It won't happen, but it's an interesting idea. I think the other thing is it would further reduce the reliance on starting pitching because you would have to get them out at the first sign of trouble, right? You're trying to play over the course of three days to prevent the most amount of runs possible. So how do you do that? And I think the team construction would be really interesting too, because you would be like, what if you decided that you took run prevention to a greater extreme than some teams have now? Like that's the way you focused on it. It was like, listen, we're just not going to let them score.

We're going to try and, you know, out shoot them 10 to 9 over the course of three days the entire time. We don't need that much offense because we can be very, very good at run prevention. I think that would be really interesting as part of it too. Yeah, you get some very stingy teams that took that approach. It won't happen happen but it's interesting i think is like the general theme of effectively wild okay i picked this one just because you you sure did see a a lot of a lot of players play for the diamondbacks this year some of whom were quite young this comes from listener austin who says hey y'all i posted this in the

effectively wild facebook group and some folks said i should send it along to you so here it is the broadcast just mentioned this was after I believe the the Rays first postseason game the Rays players often adjust well to the majors and aren't intimidated by the bright lights it got me thinking the Trop is kind of a quad a stadium in terms of fans what if their lack of attendance is a competitive advantage for acclimating rookies? The Rays famously starting some very inexperienced starters in their ALDS. I answered this question separately over email, but Mike, as someone who has seen a lot of pitching up and down over the course of this last year just because of injuries and an environment that we might call muted in Chase. What is your impression of the effect that environment tends to have on guys? I mean, I think it certainly does for some, but I don't know that the environment was the reason

why Shane Baz struggled in game two, but the environment didn't seem to affect Shane McClanahan in game one. And his post-season experience had been limited to what 11,000 fans in a world series game before that, right. Which is basically a AAA audience. So I don't want to thoroughly discount it because I do think that it, it, it's going to be variable, but for some people it's going to impact them. There are some guys that really do struggle when you put the third deck on, but I think some of that can be really overstated. I think specifically with Tampa Bay and, and it's, it's interesting that you brought the Diamondbacks into this because they just made some coaching changes. And one of the things that they want to do is be better at having a cohesive message from the major leagues to AAA. Yeah.

So that when those guys are coming up and down and going back and forth, that they're hearing the same things, right? Yeah. And I think that's one of the things that the Rays have really done well in terms of building their player development is having this cohesive language, theory, everything from the top down. I think the best player development organizations have done that. I think the Astros do it. I think the Dodgers do it.

I would be shocked if the Giants didn't do it because I think that that's – I mean, we're checking all the same people, right? Boston is going to be the same way. And this isn't like necessarily reinventing the wheel because I think that there are some organizations that have had their manager and their front office, you know, build their major league ideas and what their terms are and try to get it to trickle down. But this is a different commitment to it. And so I think, I think that to me, that's more where it is and why they have success that. And, and like,

we're also in this stretch of time where the Rays are bringing up just some impressively damn talented players. Right. Yeah. I mean, they have a stable of guys that throw 98 still, right. Even with this not being as good a pitching team as they were a year ago, maybe, but like, guys that throw 98 still, right? Even with this not being as good a pitching team as they were a year ago, maybe. But they still have supremely talented players that have refined a lot of their pitch mix in the minor leagues that it doesn't matter

what the crowd is because they're just overwhelming. Well, and my answer to Austin, I don't want to discount the effect that feeling nervous at work can have on your performance, right? I think we'd be silly to say it doesn't matter at all. I tend to think that it's more count the effect that like feeling nervous at work can have on your performance right like i i think we'd be silly to say it doesn't matter at all i tend to think that it's more whether or not it it negatively impacts guys than then players being you know particularly excellent when the the lights

are brightest i i don't know that that's quite how human psychology works but i do think that the underlying skill of the player and sort of the broader player development system that they're coming up in matters more. I mean, there's nothing like, you know, a big league quality slider to make you feel humble, even if the crowd is quiet and accommodating. So I don't think that it's the sort of thing that makes a huge, huge difference. I think the other things that you pointed to are probably what's pushing the Rays towards success more than anything else. I mean, I heard that a bunch last year too about rookies having success because there were no fans in the ballpark. That's why it seems like... Did you buy that when you heard it?

No. I mean, again, I don't think that it doesn't matter at all, but I do think it's the sort of thing that you acclimate to really, really quickly. And, you know, it's not as if if you're if you're playing in AAA, depending on where you are, it's not like there's no one there. Right. Those games can be well attended. So I don't know that I buy that as an explanation. I think that the sort of underlying talent of the prospect is likely to be the thing that sort of makes the difference there more than anything.

And, you know, postseason jitters are pretty well overcome after the first inning or two. So, okay. Finally, I guess while we're on the subject of rookies getting acclimated, we'll close with a stat blast meet a major leaguer combo. This is inspired by an email from listener Francesca who writes, I was listening to the Royals radio broadcast of Friday night's Mariners-Royals game, so clearly this was a little while ago, in which Jon Hesley made his Major League debut. Side note, according to a Ronnie Giserely tweet, this marked the first time in Major League history that five pitchers from the same draft class, 2018, made a start for the team that

drafted them in the same season. So that would be Brady Singer, Jackson Coar, Daniel Lynch, Chris Bubik, and Helsley. Just before first pitch, Denny Matthews said, and by the way, I've seen 1,227 debuts. I keep track. This statement was followed by a joke from Steve Stewart, which Denny ignored. For those who aren't familiar with Denny, his humor is very dry, so I'm not quite sure if he was joking or not. So the Royals and Mariners set to play momentarily. The 2018 amateur draft, the Royals drafted a lot of pitchers early. Brady Singer, Daniel Lynch, Jackson Core, Chris Bubich,

and a guy named Jonathan Bolin out with Tommy John surgery. Taken on the first day. Bolin was doing well at AA this year. The pitcher tonight, Jonathan Heasley, was taken in the 13th round. And he'll be making his debut tonight. Kyle Isbell, who's in right field tonight, was taken out of UNLV in the third round of that same 2018 draft. We hope that Jonathan can get off to a good start

as he begins his big league career tonight, called into service as Brady Singer, who was scheduled to start tonight, winds up on the injured list. And as we turn it over to the voice of the Royals, Denny Matthews. Denny, I'm sure you've lost count. I'm sure it's hundreds of maybe thousands

of Major League debuts you've seen. When I think of a Major League debut, the first word I think of is nerves. Every time. It never fails. And they have to control that as well as their pitches. And by the way, I have seen 1,227 debuts. I keep track. Yeah, and you've got to memorize too, I'm sure.

Denny has been the Royals radio broadcaster since the Royals' very first game back in 1969. He stopped traveling a few years back, unsure when exactly, and hadn't necessarily traveled on every road trip before that either, but we're still talking full or partial seasons for 53 years now. So he's seen every debut, Royal or otherwise, at Coffman Stadium or Municipal Stadium, plus every royal who debuted on the road for probably 40 years, as well as every player who debuted against the royals when the royals were on the road for 40 years. I have no idea whether debuts he broadcasted from home during the 2020 season should or would count or not. So do we think he was joking, or has Denny Matthews actually kept track of the major league debuts he has seen?

So we put this question to frequent StatBlast blast consultant Ryan who compiled a list of all the players who have debuted since 1901 with their debut date, debut team, and debut opponent. I'll share that list in the Facebook group. If we look at all the players who have debuted since the beginning of the 1969 season, it seems that there were 350 player debuts for the Royals and 329 against the Royals and 329 against the Royals through the end of the 2020 season. Back of the napkin math would verify this. By Ryan's count, there have been about 9,500 debuts since 1969, and there have been on

average 27.7 teams in the league over that span, so we would expect any given team to debut about 343 players. So it sounds like Matthews was exaggerating a tab, but you know, it's an impressive total nonetheless. And if you're curious about Helsley, the 24 year old was originally a 13th round pick in that 2018 draft class out of Oklahoma state. He ranked 29th on the Royals preseason prospect list with Eric Longenhagen saying Helsley was a draft eligible sophomore who simply didn't pitch all that well in college. The sort of player draft models are only on if they incorporate pitch data. Helsley's slider spin rates are plus plus, or if a scout likes the

player despite mediocre performance, which was the case here. Helsley moved from the Oklahoma State bullpen to the rotation as a sophomore, but still walked a batter every other inning and gave up more hits than anyone with his quality of stuff should give up in college. Even though his breaking ball spin rates are so high, I still saw a 40 grade low 80s curveball this spring and think Helsley's future is as a fastball and changeup middle reliever. So Helsley posted a 3-3-3 ERA and 4-5-9 FIP in 22 AA games this season. He was called up on September 17th to pitch against Seattle after the aforementioned Brady Springer went on the IL with right upper arm inflammation.

He pitched four innings and gave up four runs on two two-run shots from Jared Kelnick in a game the Mariners would win 6-2, though he also struck out Kyle Seeger and Jake Fraley. So thank you to Francesca for that question and to Ryan for his assistance with the stat blast. And we have now met another major leaguer. It's cool. I actually didn't doubt Denny's totals there. I was like, oh, when you've been broadcasting for 50 some odd years, right? It seemed like a feasible number. Yeah. Yeah.

It definitely seemed like a feasible number. And as I said, an impressive number nonetheless. Whenever you've been in the game for 53 years, you're just going to have seen so many guys. It's just like the well of perspective and sort of knowledge you have and experience with the game over that long a stretch is just really humbling to me, candidly. All right. We will leave it there so that folks can try to listen to this before today's playoff games get going. Mike, can you let us all know where we can listen to you for the rest of the postseason?

for the rest of the postseason? I will be on MLB Network Radio on SiriusXM, and I will be doing our on-site coverage of the American League Championship Series and for the first time, the World Series this year, which I'm super excited about. That's so exciting. Congratulations. Thank you. Yeah, that's going to be a lot of fun. Well, you should definitely check out Mike for those stretches,

and you can find him on Twitter at Mike underscore Farron. Mike, thanks so much for joining me. Hey, my pleasure, Meg. It's good to be with you. That'll do it for today. You can support Effectively Wild on Patreon by going to patreon.com slash effectively wild. The following five listeners have already signed up and pledged some small monthly amount to help keep the podcast going, keep us ad free, and get access to a few special perks.

Michael Santana, Chris Pascoff, Gavin Rodkey, Jesse Kraler, and Martha Coons. Speaking of perks, if you're a supporter at the ten dollar a month and up level one of your supporter benefits is access to two patreon exclusive postseason livecasts featuring me possibly ben and several of our baseball friends we'll be ready to announce the first of those soon so keep your eyes peeled for a message from me about it in the next few days you can join our facebook group at facebook.com slash group slash effectively wild and you can rate review and subscribe to the podcast on itunes and other podcast platforms keep your questions and comments for us coming via email at podcast at vangraphs.com or via the patreon messaging system if you're a supporter thanks to dylan higgins for his editing assistance i'll be back later this week with

new guest co-hosts and new episodes until then enjoy the Division Series. Let it all drop. Let it all drop. Let it all fall off.