Effectively Wild: A FanGraphs Baseball Podcast - Effectively Wild Episode 2096: Sho Him the Money

Episode Date: December 10, 2023

Ben Lindbergh and Meg Rowley react to Shohei Ohtani signing a titanic 10-year, $700 million deal with the Dodgers, covering every aspect of the news. Then (57:07) they recount the even-funnier-in-retrospect rumor-related frothing on Friday, when it briefly looked like Ohtani was en route to Toronto to become a Blue Jay. Audio intro: Nate Emerson, “Effectively […]

Discussing baseball news pedantically And the colonies semi-erotically Stat was passed, passed, and better for free Three new episodes for us each week Effectively Wild Effectively Wild Hello and welcome to episode 2096 of Effectively Wild, the Fangraphs baseball podcast brought to you by our Patreon supporters.

I'm Meg Rowley of Fangraphs and I am joined by Ben Lindberg of The Ringer. Ben, how are you? Gobsmacked. Emergency pod. Speechless. Not actually speechless. It'd be bad if I were speechless. You would have to do all the talking while I just breathed heavily in the background. But yeah, it's a Saturday pod. It's an emergency pod.

Emergency pod. We were planning to do a podcast. We were planning to do a podcast on Friday, but it was a fluid developing situation. We'll talk about that later. But now we know. Now we know the actual outcome. Shohei Otani is a Los Angeles Dodger or is about to be 10 years, 700 million. He broke the news himself, of course, because he kept the whole thing shrouded in secrecy. So he got to

be first. Everyone else has to say first Shohei Otani. Shohei Otani was first and he put it on Instagram and he had some words apologizing to how long it took. It didn't actually take that long. But he said, I've decided to choose the Dodgers as my next team. And he thanked people in the Angels organization and Angels fans. And he says to all Dodgers fans, I pledge to always do what's best for the team and always continue to give it my all to be the best version of myself. and always continue to give it my all to be the best version of myself. Until the last day of my playing career,

I want to continue to strive forward not only for the Dodgers, but for the baseball world. And he promises a later press conference. But, wow. Wow. We have resolution. Boy, do we have resolution. Well, first of all, I'd like to thank Otani for completely destroying my over-under draft.

Oh, yeah. I was going to say. It's over. It's done. Yeah. Congratulations on your win. I mean, it would have been impolite for me to win, you know, the preseason draft, the minor league free agent draft, and the over-under draft, you know? Yeah. You're giving me one here.

Yeah. This is not the number one implication, probably, for most baseball fans. But if you're an Effectively Wild listener who cares about that implication, MLB Trade Rumors had projected 12 years and $528 million for Otani. And you took the under. I did. At the time, I said, hey, that was probably smart because who knows? He might sign a short-term high average annual

value deal, in which case that would be big for you. And even if not, you probably won't be that wrong, I said, right? Like how much over could it be 528, right? Well, it turns out a lot, actually. A lot. A lot. Now, there are deferrals. And as we record here on Saturday, our quick reaction pod, we do not have all the details of the deferrals. We just know, per Jeff Passan, that the majority of the amount is deferred. That doesn't have implications for the over-under draft, unfortunately for you. There's no net present value caveat in our draft. It's just the total guaranteed amount. So, yeah, that's going to sink your over-under draft. I think that's basically done.

It's done. But it does have implications for the Dodgers, which we can discuss. And obviously, when we have the precise numbers, then we'll follow up on that. But it's still an enormous number. It's an enormous number. It is the size of the deferrals might be described as unprecedented, and it sounds like they are, but this contract is unprecedented, not just in baseball, but like in sports, in sports, Ben, in all sports.

Yeah, it is. It tops Messi's contract, right? I mean, maybe not once you factor in the deferrals. And also Messi's contract was for fewer years, I think. But everyone cares about the big number, 700. That's the headline number. And that is the biggest number that anyone in sports has ever signed. And just completely blows away every baseball player. Oh, yeah. I mean, Mike Trout, former teammate of Shohei Otani, Mike Trout, was hundreds of millions of dollars less.

Aaron Judge, biggest free agent contract ever last offseason. Ohtani doubled that number more or less. 360 for Judge. This is wild. It's so many dollars. And I think I said when I took the under on Ohtani's contract for I think I said I would be happy to be wrong that was sort of the general vibe of our draft where we're like we think these numbers are all going to be lower and we'd like that to not be true for like these players and the health of

the sport etc but um it's a lot of money even with the deferrals a lot of money and I really appreciate the Los Angeles Dodgers being like, you know, money's a resource and we have it. So we're going to use it so that we can literally employ the best baseball player on the planet for probably the rest of his professional career. You know, certainly the part of his pro career that we're likely to care most about. Yeah. I mean, I guess he's going to be signed to roughly the same age that Bryce Harper is, or I guess it'll be, I guess it'll be, yeah, just about right. And Bryce Harper already requesting an extension, but, but Otani's statements, uh, said, right. He, he wants to, until the last day of his playing career, strive forward for the Dodgers and for the baseball world.

But yeah, this is, I'm going to guess that once we do the math and do the adjustments, that it'll be more like a real present value of 600 or something more in the range of contracts that we're actually bandied about. Yeah. Right? Because 700, no one was talking about about 700 at least not after the elbow injury no they definitely weren't i mean i we uh you know like we're gonna write about this at fan graphs i don't know if you guessed that i'm gonna write about it at the ringer too yeah um dan's quick react is up balance working away as we speak. And, you know, the Zips projections for Otani are just, like, overwhelming.

And obviously, like, he won't be pitching next year. So there's, you know, you don't get a pitching number until 2025. But, like, he's so good, you know, and he's projected to be so good. And it's so good, Ben. I am kind of at a loss for words in part because after the day we had on friday part of me was like we're either going to get resolution on this within like the the course of the weekend right yeah or he's not signing until like january you know and we'll talk about friday in a minute but yeah we're gonna recount the events of friday once we

get past the actual news we'll get to the fake news and the rumors. But, I mean, Blue Jays fans will want to tune out for that portion of the podcast or probably the entire podcast. If you're a Blue Jays fan and you're listening, wow, well done. Yeah, you might want to skip it. It could be fun to skip it for you. It might be emotionally healthy. skip it for you. Like it might be emotionally healthy. You know, we can talk about the Dodgers of it all because the funny thing, Ben, about talking about Otani signing is that like, what do you say about Otani himself? You know, like we've talked about Otani so much.

We say plenty about him. Yes. We say so many things about Otani. And so I don't want to give short shrift to the player that he is and has been and will be in the future because that guy is the most exciting player in baseball. But like we kind of know what that is. Like we've seen that. We're familiar with it. And so then, you know, my my first instinct in moments like this is to turn to our depth charts at Fangraphs. And first of all, marvel at just how quickly Jason and John get those things updated when these signings come through, because I've witnessed them doing it at company dinner. It's just like whip out the laptop and then do it and then it's there. And so, you know, we get to look at the Dodgers like projected opening day lineup. here because on the one hand wow you go Mookie Betts you go Otani you go Freddie Freeman you go

Will Smith and you're like wow that's I mean like we we spent a lot of time last season talking about just how impenetrable the Braves lineup felt right like how far down you had to go to get to like a guy where you're like that's an easier route and it took a while and i look we're going to talk about the easier routes in a second here but like that that top four is unfair perhaps like i am flummoxed by that being real it feels like it shouldn't be real like we shouldn't have this kind of collection of players but again when you view money as a resource like you can have that that's what you can have it's one of the things you can have is that and so there's that piece of it i'm overwhelmed but then the other part of me is like it's weird that the dodgers still have a lot of holes to fill

huh they do right yeah and now you figure they're going to fill them. You don't get Shohei Otani and not do that. Right. You've probably made some assurances to Otani, I would think, right? That you don't want the mega deal to completely hamstring the organization in a way that doesn't allow them to address, say, like the pitching woes that they have or how they like still kind of need maybe some, they maybe need another right-handed bat still, like, you know, they maybe still need a right-handed bat, you know, you know? Yeah, the deferral, just about every newsbreaker had suspiciously identical language. Yeah, it's because it came from his agent.

It's fine. Yes, almost certainly. We can say this part. It's fine. Nobody's confused about what happened here. They're all taking language from his agent. Yes, and if the source was his agent, then he said that the idea for the deferrals was Otani's. Otani's, yeah.

But one way or another, right. So that has a couple of implications for the deferrals was Otani's. Otani's, yeah. But one way or another, right. So that has a couple of implications for the Dodgers. One, it reduces the soft cap hit, right, in that it lowers the competitive balance tax amount because the CBT is based on the net present value of the deal. So it's not just going to be 700 divided by 10. 10, right. It'll be the adjusted number, whatever they figure that out once they figure out the projected inflation and what that comes out to.

So if it's 600 or if it's less, whatever it is, it'll be that number divided by 10. So A, it'll be less of a penalty for the Dodgers if they go over those penalties, right? And then the second factor is that it will just be less money that they are actually spending for the next however many years that that's deferred, right? They will just have more room to maneuver and presumably surround Otani with other excellent players in addition to the other excellent players who are already there. So it won't be 70 million going to the 2024 payroll and beyond. It'll be some significantly lower number than that. Maybe it's 40 or something. It'll still be a big number, but a lot lower, right? So they will still have some room to maneuver. And looking at their projected payroll right now, again, maybe they will make

more moves, but it's not like they're breaking the scale here or anything. They don't even have the highest payroll in baseball. This is updated already, I believe. And the 2024 payroll projection, they're fourth just behind the Phillies and then the Mets and the Yankees and luxury tax projection, they their fifth, right? So they're a high spending team, but they have cut some salary and some guys have left and they have, they didn't go out and sign Corey Seager, right? Like they let some players walk away and there was speculation that they were trying to get under the CVT. They were trying to reset the penalties that they were maybe preparing for an Otani signing.

And then I guess it didn't work out exactly the way that they had planned. And they were still on the hook for Bowers money and everything. And so they didn't actually dip under. Right. But but they are low enough that even adding Otani, it's not like a really ridiculous number, at least as of now. It's it's high, but they're always on the high end. They're the Dodgers. at least as of now. It's high, but they're always on the high end. They're the Dodgers. Right. This is what they should do because these are the resources they have at their disposal. And I think we've talked a lot on the pod about how they do. I mean, they weren't able to dip below the luxury tax threshold, which they clearly wanted to. But they tend to manage

their payroll in a very smart way. They aren't afraid to spend money. They are conscious of the cap, but only in a let's reset it for a year because we want to blow through it the next year kind of a way. And then in a moment like this where it's like, okay, we didn't manage to reset our penalties quite the way we wanted to. They just go, I don't care. Like, it's Shoei Otani. We're going to make so much money. We're going to make so much money. They're going to make so much money. Like, it's just, I think the ability to be clear-eyed about this stuff is really important. And to be able to say, like, this is a business.

We understand it to be a business in a comprehensive way. Some teams understand that in that they are a baseball team that is like also a real estate investment group. And so, you know, like there are a lot of ways to capitalize on the tremendous entertainment products that you are the steward of. And this is one way to do that. And it costs money up front. And obviously, like, this is a big deal. And I don't want to say, like, that they could do five more of these because, like, even they are going to have an upper limit, just like the Mets have an upper limit.

But how many, like, how many jerseys have people tried to buy in the last two hours? Just refreshing the team store. How soon could I sign? Yeah. Yeah. No, I mean, it's going to be just a ridiculous amount of supplementary revenue. That's the headline for me is that it's the same headline as always about Otani.

You just can't judge him by the rules that apply to any other baseball player. He has basically broken our brains. He has changed our conception of what a baseball player can be and can accomplish in this era. He has literally rewritten the rules or the rules have been rewritten for him. Right. So that he could DH on days that he pitches. He could do both. He could make an all-star team as a hitter and a pitcher.

Right. And now he is basically breaking baseball's salary ceiling, right? And you might look at this and judge it by war, dollars per war, and the math won't work out, as Dan said in his piece. Zips might say, oh, he's worth 300 or 400 or something like that, right? But you're not factoring in and it's hard to factor in all the attention that he gets you and all the extra revenue and all the advertising. and the fact that Japan, the entire nation of Japan is going to be watching all the Dodgers games and buying signs behind home plates. And there's just so much extra revenue that comes from him and so much extra attention that you just can't judge it. I guess we all underrated it. People were saying

600 before the injury. And then after the injury, when I was talking to people, it was more like, oh, between 400 and 500. And again, the real value of this might come down closer to that range than 700. But ultimately, it's just like, I wonder how much the elbow injury cost him, if anything. Like, would he have gotten 800? Or is it just like, he's Oya Otani. I don't care how many working functional elbows he has. Like, we're going to give him 700 million no matter what, you know, because he's just such a star. The only thing that I would say is that that star power is kind of contingent on him being a two-way player.

Sure. It's not just him being a really great DH or being a cool guy. Like a lot of the intrigue comes from the fact that he is a unicorn, that he is the two-way player. So there must be some degree of confidence that he can come back and continue to be. So there must be some degree of confidence that he can come back and continue to be. I'm sure that he got some sort of verbal guarantee at least of like, hey, you know, you're going to let me continue to be a two-way player, assuming I can pick up a baseball and throw it. And they must be banking on that to some extent because if he cannot be a two-way player anymore post-injury, which has happened to some pitchers, you know, second TJ, or we don't even know that it was a full TJ yet, but some sort of serious elbow procedure. If he were one of the unlucky ones who couldn't come back and be a great pitcher anymore,

then I think there would be a little less of a sensation surrounding him. He'd be a great DH, or he'd be be at that point, maybe a great everyday position player, a first baseman or a corner outfielder. And he might be just as valuable on the field in that role, but I don't think he would be as valuable off the field. Right. So I think that would be the only scenario that the Dodgers could really be worried about. If you're a Dodgers fan, then you just got to be deliriously happy and it's not my money. But if you're the Dodgers could really be worried about. If you're a Dodgers fan, then you just got to be deliriously happy and it's not my money. But if you're the Dodgers, that would, I guess, be the real worst case outcome

that he comes back and he's not able to pitch at that level anymore. Not even because he wouldn't continue to be a very valuable player, but I just don't know that he would be as big a draw, right? I don't know that we would be talking about him quite as much if he were just a really good player, right? I don't know that we would be talking about him quite as much if he were just a really good player, but in a regular role.

Yeah. I mean, I'm sure that there is concern and I'm sure that they are aware that there is some amount of risk. I also imagine like that this medical was very heavily scrutinized. Yeah. If it's even happened yet, do we know the test, right? I mean, that might be, we might have a few days of pending physical, who knows. It'll be fine. It'll be fine. You know, here's the thing. It'll be fine. I'm just confident. I don't know why. Why would I be confident? We just spent last off season having to write about Carlos Greer every 10 days because of his stupid ankle. Um, I, it's not really meant to be a knock on Carlos, but it was weird that we had to run a react like four different times. Um, so there is risk involved, but I imagine that, um, you don't entertain these kinds of numbers, even with, uh, the deferrals in mind, if you don't feel like you have a satisfactory answer to that question, which doesn't mean that the answer can't change and something bad might happen because that's what happens with human bodies over time typically is like bad stuff. But I would imagine that they feel comfortable that they've struck the right risk reward sort of balance here. I don't want to say that the Dodgers are infallible in that regard, but I do, you know, sort of trust them to have the right people in place to sort of make those assessments. So, you know, like, I think that it's so funny.

There has been discourse on Twitter. I had to reinstall Twitter on my phone, Ben. It was worth it for Friday. on my phone, Ben. It was worth it for Friday. I was like, I need to monitor this situation because I got to rally some troops if he signs, but I can't sit here scrolling all day. It'll make me crazy. And so I had to reinstall it on my phone so I could get notifications on my phone. It doesn't feel good. What discourse did you see? Well, there's still question. There are still questions about the two way thing and not in the way that you're asking them like a reasonable person, but in like a pitched, frantic, convinced that it's over kind of a way. And, you know, again, teams aren't infallible and the Dodgers aren't infallible,

but it's like, well, I feel like we've gotten an answer to that question at least based on the people who would know the best um so i think it's probably fine or if it's not like we don't you know it's not obvious that it's not fine right now you know yeah man you're gonna look really good in that uniform oh yeah oh he gets to keep doing spring training in arizona everything's coming up mad really i know the real winner of this is me. You tweeted. He doesn't even have to move. He doesn't even have to move. Not far, at least, right? No.

I mean, yeah, it's going to be rough for Angels fans to watch him just moving over to the other Los Angeles, the real Los Angeles, let's face it, and probably winning every year. Wow. Like, that's the takeaway. And I'm catching strays. Yeah. I mean, I don't know that most Angels fans would pretend that they are as legitimately Los Angeles. Maybe the team would.

But that's, I guess, the takeaway is that he's gone from a team that has not made the playoffs during his tenure there to a team that always make the playoffs. Like, there is no guarantee with any team things can go wrong, but he has competitive proofed himself as much as he can. The Dodgers have been the closest thing to a lock for the longest time in Major League Baseball. And obviously having Shohei Otani makes them even more so. So if he wants to make up for lost time

and get some postseason playing time, then go into the Dodgers. That's the best bet for him. And after all the speculation and the consternation and the roster-bation about where he might go or why he was taking so long, ultimately, this was the least surprising outcome. Maybe the money is surprising, but the destination is not surprising, right? I mean, this has been the Dodgers are the favorite for the longest time. No one knew anything, but just based on the fact that he said he wanted to win, he's already in the area, it's in the West Coast, it's a team that spends a lot and clearly wants him, just all signs pointed to the Dodgers. And ultimately, the obvious answer was the right answer. And it turns out that Dave Roberts disclosing that the Dodgers met with Shohei Otani was not a deal breaker.

Happy for Dave. You know, that wouldn't have been a fun thing to get thrown at you every now and again. I feel like we lost sight of the most obvious answer for a little while. You know, like we kind of thought it, we, you and I, like, because we're brain geniuses, we're like, it's probably just going to be the Dodgers. Yeah. And anytime anyone asked me where I thought he went,

I always said, I have no idea. But then I would say, I guess the Dodgers. Like, that's the default prediction, because why not? Right. Like, it just seemed smart, you know? It just seemed, like, sometimes I think that we try you know it just seemed like sometimes i think that we try to come up with like a cute answer like from because it's fun to build a narrative right it's fun to be surprised i said to someone yesterday that it would be it would be really

fun if a mystery team just swooped in and then all of a sudden you're like i don't know why but otani is like a cincinnati red and that would have been shocking. And we would have gone, wow. Particularly if this number had matched to it. But, you know, I think sometimes you lose sight of like the real answer, which is that we only have a certain number of teams that sort of play in the big payroll space in a normal year, right? And then we, you know, we had some number of teams that we were concerned about being compromised or being able to say they were compromised by the rsn stuff you know and uh and then you were left with like five teams basically that looked like they could both afford to play in this market and would have the desire to do so and all along along, I was just like, I think he's probably

going to be a Dodger. And then you know what? It turns out, I'm a Dodger now. Wow. Yeah. I don't want to act in retrospect, but it was such a lock that I was supremely confident I probably still would have taken the field over the Dodgers. I just thought- We entertained other notions. I can't remember if I took the field or if I took the Dodgers. I don't remember what we talk about on the pod sometimes. Well, I hope Otani takes the field for them at some point. But I think I was starting to get into the prospect of Otani on some other team like Otani in Toronto. That might be fun and exciting. Or there were plenty of teams that never really seemed to be in it where you could be like, oh, Otani on the Orioles. So that'd be interesting.

Oh, yeah. That would have been cool. Yeah. Ultimately, per the reporting, which who knows how reliable any reporting that does not come from Jeff Passan and Ken Rosenthal at this point is. And, wait, before you finish that thought. And Bob Nightingale. And Bob Nightingale.

We got to give the man his due when he has a good day. Names you can trust. Bob Nightingale. Yeah, but it seemed to have come down to the two L.A. teams. Yes. The Cubs, maybe. The Cubs, come down to the two LA teams. Yes. The Cubs, maybe. The Cubs, maybe. The Giants, maybe.

Maybe. And those seemed to be the main players in the end, or those were the teams that were getting mentioned the most. And to get Otani, if you're the Dodgers, if there was ever any real risk of him going to the Giants, obviously, it's extra sweet to prevent him from going to a division rival. Yep. So that's just a, you know, nice little cherry on top. But there's always, there's a winner's curse in free agency, right? The team that gets the player is often the team that was willing to pay the most and maybe to pay a little more than is entirely rational.

maybe to pay a little more than is entirely rational. And you can imagine that when the winner gets Otani, maybe there's even more of a curse, if you want to call it that, or some irrational exuberance just like, hey, imagine Shohei Otani can be on our team. How awesome would that be? How awesome would that be? Maybe it's like, are we really going to do away with that dream over 50 million or even 100 million?

And hey, if we just defer it, maybe it'll be someone else's problem. We really got to do away with that dream over 50 million or even 100 million. And hey, if we just defer it, maybe it'll be someone else's problem. And then it'll be like a Bobby Bonilla situation. And someone 30 years from now will be paying Shohei Otani. Not my problem. Right. And in the meantime, we get to enjoy Shohei Otani. So if some of that sentiment led to this deal getting done, then that would be entirely relatable. So we'll get more details.

I assume you never know with Otani what will actually come out and what won't and how close any other teams were. I think there was a Heyman tweet with a quote from some runner up that said, well, we were not at 699. So I'm guessing that this number is considerably higher than anyone else was willing to go. But man, I mean, I do hope at some point we get the behind the scenes, but it's not surprising. Like it's not, you know, six years ago, he signs with the angels and people are still wondering why exactly he did that. And it was like, oh, it was just a feeling and maybe they would let me be a two-way guy or whatever. This time, we don't really have to be flummoxed or ask, oh, the Dodgers, why? I wonder what it was that

sealed that deal. There are many obvious reasons for it to be the Dodgers. How does the off-season curse interact with the potential Drake curse? Yeah, Drake. Off-season curse interact with the potential Drake curse. Yeah, Drake. We got it. We got offset. Do they offset?

Are they, is it like penalties in football where sometimes you do a bunch of bad things on both sides and then it's like it never happened? Is it like that? How do curses work? Are curses real? I think not. But, you know, we're going to talk about it. I wonder what this does to the perception of Otani, who to this point has been about as universally beloved as a baseball player could be. But maybe partly because he wasn't a threat to anyone, because the Angels were always out of it.

It's hard not to like Otani, I think. But now that he goes to the Dodgers, it's not the same as like an NBA player joining the super team exactly. In baseball, it just doesn't work like that, I don't think. And you're not guaranteed anything. And they could certainly just not succeed during his tenure. We've certainly seen incredible Dodgers teams not win a World Series. So it's not quite like, oh, he just went to the super team that spends the most money. But some people will probably feel like that. Like, oh, he just, you know, there's always kind of a backlash, less than

there used to be, but still somewhat to just money, right? $700 million. Like, you know, you could sort of root for him even harder when he came over from Japan and left a lot of money on the table because of when he came over. Turns out, you know, I think in the long run, it'll work out just fine for him. But that was an indication of like, oh, okay, he cares more about competing at the highest level or whatever than holding out for the most money. I'm sure he figured, hey, if I go over and do well there, then I will make several hundred million dollars down the road and it'll be fine. well there, then I will make several hundred million dollars down the road and it'll be fine.

But now clearly he's going after the most money and going to the perennial favorite in that division that's always in the playoffs. And so if you're a division rival or you're just sick of the Dodgers being in the playoffs every year or just the rich getting richer, then you might resent Shohei Otani a little more, or you might just not be able to root for him as wholeheartedly as you did when it was just like, oh, he's on the angels. Isn't that cute? They're not a threat to us or anyone. I think a couple of things. I think, first of all, if people are bristling at the number and want an out, you know, you're like, I want to like Otani, but I have weird hangups about the money stuff just remember the actual need that is being prioritized when he did his little hierarchy

made his pyramid was not moving okay so like who among us wouldn't want to move i don't want to move we have an issue with our floor right now and i hope that they just bury me under it leave it alone you know because i don't want to ever move out of this house. So there's that piece of it. So you do that. When you are presented with the opportunity to maximize the two things that you presumably want the most as a professional athlete, which is making a bunch of money and winning a lot. You know, you're like the young girl in the taco commercial. Why not both?

You know, why not do both? Like the young girl in the taco commercial. Why not both, you know? Why not do both? Because you can – and to maximize both of those things and not have to move. Also, Ben, what's the name of the dog? You know? Like tell me about this dog.

Yes. Was the dog named Dodger? Is the dog named Dodger? Yeah. Is the name Sandy? Look, someone – he's going to do a press conference, right? Someone's going to ask about the dog. If he takes questions at the press conference at this point, someone's got to ask about the dog. Ask about the dog.

It was a journalistic malpractice for MLB Network not to ask about the dog in the first reveal unless it was like a contingent, like I won't come on your air unless you agree not to ask about the dog. Some people are really upset about not knowing the name of the dog. I know. I want to tell you that. We have some colleagues who are like really ask about the dog. Some people are really upset about not knowing the name of the dog. I don't want to tell you that. We have some colleagues who are like really upset about the dog. Yes, but I imagine that he will be asked about that now. Yeah. In a setting where it'll be tough for him not to say.

He could always say no comment. But it's so silly. You know, it'll be such a silly thing to say no comment on, especially because Pablo Torre reported on his excellent podcast that the name of the dog was tied to the team. And so now we know the team. So yeah, I don't know if I buy that, but well, like, here's the thing about I don't know if this is true for you, but like often they're just responding to the tone of your voice less than actually knowing English words because they're

animals and don't speak English. So he could just lie and say like, it's Sandy. The dog's named Sandy. You know, like Fernando. It's named Fernando. You know, that's it. And then you could call it Nando. That's a nice little nickname for a dog, right? A little puppy named Nando.

So, there's that. There's the moving. There's being able to maximize all this stuff. What other things do we have to say? I mean, we're going to have to talk about Friday at some point here. Oh, yeah. I want to just marvel at the fact that this got done on December 9th. I feel totally discombobulated, Ben.

We've been talking for 40 minutes. I still feel 30 minutes. I don't know what time is anymore. Like, I feel so unsettled. I'm happy for him. I'm happy to have been wrong about the contract draft. I want to know about the dog. What other things do I want to know?

I wonder what the first thing he'll buy is. It's not like Otani doesn't have money, though. It's not like he couldn't afford whatever he wanted before. Right. But, man, just that lineup. Mookie. Otani. Freddy. Freddy. Smith. Yeah. but man just that lineup Mookie, Otani Freddie, Smith yeah and so I guess this

means now what does this mean for Max Muncy everyone's thoughts immediately turn to huh Max Muncy I guess he can't DH at least I will admit this was a thought I had I was like we're really committed to Max Muncy everyday third baseman I

guess and that's an active choice you know This was a thought I had. I was like, we're really committed to Max Muncy everyday third baseman, I guess. Yeah, you do what you have to do. That's an active choice, you know, that's a real, that's a really active decision to make. Muncy just got a two year extension. He did. Yes. I mean, other than that, there aren't that many short-term implications. It's just that you have Buehler presumably coming back, confronting the rotation. Right. But then you have Kershaw, who is a free agent. Free agent.

And I don't know if this makes him more or less likely to return. I'm sure that he was just always going to based on whether he wanted to or not. So if he comes back, he's still going to be out for a good chunk of the season. And then you have May and Gonsolin who are coming back from serious surgeries. And so you're back in the boat of where you were at the end of the season, plus Bueller, where you just have a bunch of younger guys, right? You have Pepio and you have Miller and Yarbrough and sheehan and they've got to go get someone you hope that you can pencil in otani into that rotation for 2025 but yeah this this gets you a long way to a playoff berth as it is especially because the padres just traded soto like who's really you know the diamondbacks just got edoto. Like, who's really, you know, the Diamondbacks just got Eduardo Rodriguez.

I love that they announced that yesterday, officially. And I was like, not now, D-backs. We got other stuff to do. We're a little bit busy. But the Dodgers, I think, with Otani, they could probably just, it's kind of a cakewalk to the top of the NOS. Who knows?

Because I would have said that the Padres were the favorites in that division last year and look what happened to them. But you got to figure that the Dodgers will get back there and they don't have to build a 110 win team. They just have to do enough to get in. And we're going to see playoff Otani, October Otani. Oh my God.

We've waited so long. It'll be more fun when he's a two-way player in October. But even so. I don't want to count my chickens before, roosters, eggs, I don't want to count anything before it hatches. The hatching? I don't want to count my chickens before they hatch, right? That's the expression? Yes, it is. I don't want to count any chickens before they hatch or anything else. count any chickens before they hatch or anything else but yeah i mean i i feel very confident that we are going to see otani play october baseball and i am thrilled about that that is so exciting and if for some reason he doesn't play october baseball during the duration of his dodgers

contract we're going to have a new curse to talk about yes you know really is it are there any losers here no except for except for Toronto fans. Yeah, and Angels fans, I guess. We can retire Tungsten Armo Doyle tweets at least for the time being. Yeah, that is sort of sad. I feel bad for Mike Trout. I feel bad for Mike Trout also. Like, it's just going to get worse, you know?

I know. But if he wanted to, now I wonder, like, it was announced that he was definitely not getting traded. Of course, I guess that could have been part of an attempt to convince Otani to stay, just guaranteeing that Trout would not go anywhere. And if they were one of the finalists and now they lost out on Otani, does Trout have a change of mind? Is he like, do I really want to commit to the rest of my career here without Shohei? Or might he think? Remember when there were those rumors early in the offseason about like Trout and Otani could go to the Dodgers? I mean, but why wouldn't you want out? Like, I guess he's really comfortable there and he just likes playing in the area and

with that organization. He doesn't have to move. He doesn't have to move. Yeah, Shohei just showed him the way, right? Don't ever move. Just like be born, live and die in the same place, you know? Yeah. So I wonder if he reconsiders and is like, you know what? Actually, this seems like it's going to suck. So maybe I do want out because I want to play in the playoffs someday.

So we'll see. He should be a Philly, you know? like if I had complete discretion for like 10 days and could just send him more, just make him a, put him, reunite him and Marsh, you know, you'd have a, have that. And like, he could just go back to New Jersey. He could just live in New Jersey. I have a few final thoughts before we transition to recounting what went down on Friday. One, so just the vibes alone, I think, of Mookie and Otani on the same roster really

delight me. Aside from the fact that the Dodgers just had the second and third place MVP finishers in the NL, and now they're getting the unanimous AL MVP. So, performance reasons alone, it's exciting enough. But just imagine those guys high-fiving. Imagine them in the dugout, Shohei and Mookie, just frolicking. How fun will that be? So much fun. Also, no opt-outs in this deal, we probably should have mentioned before, right? So, he is there for the long haul, presumably, or he cannot elect to leave at least. And I think that even though there will probably be some people who are not as happy that Ohtani is a Dodger now, it is probably a good thing if you want Shohei Ohtani to have the best career he could have. Yes. the most effective. And I don't know that I trust the Dodgers to like keep him healthier than other teams because they've had their fair share of injured pitchers. I don't know if anyone has figured that out, but not that he needs the help. But if he does want any help with analysis or

figuring out his pitch selection, like he went to driveline. I know the Dodgers have had a partnership with driveline. I'm just saying like going from the angels to the Dodgers, to the extent that he actually had any ability to be even better than he's been. Usually a player goes from that team to this team. You might think, oh, maybe the Dodgers will find something. Maybe they'll unlock something. I'm not saying Otani needs anything unlocked, but like if there's any latent talent that he has not harnessed, then you got to feel pretty good about the Dodgers being the teams that now will be the ones telling him what he could do or recommending minor changes that he could make. Right. Yeah. Like I, again, we don't want to like imbue any one organization with like too much

authority or expertise. Right. But when you have an established track record of doing a thing, like you can say, hey, you know, who's maybe going to be a beneficiary of that established track record? I want Shoei Otani. Yeah. And I agree with you. Like I'm not convinced that this, like this doesn't change my expectation of his relative health

over the duration of a deal in any appreciable way because as you noted like who was a healthy pitcher for the dodgers by the end last year like maybe one guy but i think that you know we have at times had questions about like hey like otani why are you throwing that pitch that much and you know who probably doesn't let that happen for as long the dod Dodgers. Exactly. Yeah. It's not even about going to the Dodgers as much as it is leaving the Angels, right? Yeah.

I feel bad about rubbing that in, Angels fans. I do, too. They've already started taking down the Shohei Otani mural outside of Angels Stadium. Sam Blum just tweeted while we've been talking, they're already removing it. I know. Oh, no. tweeted while we've been talking they're already removing it i know it's like you gotta move on when when your ex finds someone new and spurns you i mean you gotta you know unfriend them on facebook and just like yeah not look at the old photos for a while maybe yeah date other people

so yeah yeah it's tough make sure you turn off your notifications too because sometimes instagram will be like this person just posted a picture and you're like, did I need to see that? Yeah. Or like Facebook memories. Here's a happy picture of you two years ago. Yeah. I'm not actually speaking from personal experience here. I'm not really either, actually. I wonder, do you think Joe Kelly is going to hold out for a bigger bounty now for giving up his uniform number 17, which he'd already said, or I guess his wife said on Instagram that he was willing to make way for Shohei Ohtani. Like, imagine if, you know, re-signing Joe Kelly was what blocked the Dodgers from getting Ohtani back. That would be very funny. Now, like, Ohtani just got $700 million. If you're Joe Kelly, you know, are you

just going to do that for a watch or a nice dinner? Or are you going to say, hey, Shohei, you know, kick me a little bit of that? What would be the most ridiculous thing that someone could ask for in this circumstance before we would be like, Joe, relax, man. Like, what's the, is it some kind of fancy car whose brand I don't know? Like, is it, you know, is it art? Is it, like, what is it? What is the thing? Yeah, as a percentage of Otani's salary, it would still be such a small amount. But, yeah, I'm not suggesting he's going to try to capitalize or, but, you know, maybe he holds out for a little better gift.

It could be true. But I think that, like, look, Joe Kelly was never going to make Otani money in his career. Like, that seemed pretty obvious. But he's made, like, good money in his career, right? And being, like, magnanimous, priceless, you know? I bet Otani will offer him something nice just on his own because, you know, he seems like that kind of guy. Exactly. Yeah.

And I'll say from a performance standpoint, I don't think this makes much of a difference. I was just looking at the park factors to see if there'd be any impact on Otani. And not really. Angel Stadium, Dodger Stadium, they're both pretty neutral overall. Maybe Dodger Stadium is a little pitcher friendlier. Although, you know, Otani's going to be a pitcher, too. So it applies to him either way. But just as a hitter, if you're wondering, sort of similar. Dodger Stadium is actually a pretty good home run park for lefties, but so was Angel Stadium.

They're like third and fifth in home run park factor for left-handed batters according to StatCast. So I don't think there's any real performance implication for like, oh, his stats are going to look a whole lot different going from one place to another. In this case, it is pretty like for like. I also wonder because of the setting. So again, it's like for like and that he's going from Anaheim to L.A. It's not far. There is a lot of speculation about like does Otani want to be a star or does he want to stay under the radar? Obviously, he's a private guy. People were talking about the implications. If he went to Toronto, what would that mean for him? The opportunities for endorsements and fame are greater there. He's already making eight times more in endorsement money than any other MLB player. But he's going to be in Hollywood.

Like if he wants to do anything that he hasn't done yet, he can now. Not that he couldn't have before. But also in L.A., he is going to be just one of many stars. So maybe it actually helps him stay under the radar relative to some other places he could have gone. You know, like LeBron plays in L.A. and every movie star is in L.A. So like as huge a star as he is in the baseball firmament in the grand scheme of things, there are much bigger celebrities that he's going to be sharing a town with. things, there are much bigger celebrities that he's going to be sharing a town with. So maybe it actually helps him blend in, but also allows him to be prominent on the national stage and, you know, be on a lot of national broadcasts and get good airtime if he cares about that. Like it's good for baseball, I guess. You know, we could talk about, oh, it would have been

fun for him to go to the Reds or something. But for baseball to have the biggest star on one of the bigger stages with one of the most prominent organizations, it's probably not a bad thing. really anonymous because New Yorkers, and I mean this as a nice thing because sometimes they give you the business about New York, but this is a good thing where it's like they want to be cool in a way that's like aloof. And so, they leave celebrities alone. Whereas in LA, people are, I think, a little more like in your face and taking pictures and they're on those buses that go by people's houses. We let that happen. That's a weird thing that we do as a society. What's that about? That's so weird. If I had a bus that going by my house,. We let that happen. That's a weird thing that we do as a society. What's that about? That's so weird. If I had a bus that going by my house,

they're like, this is the place where Meg Rowley lives. I would be like, I guess I have to move because you found me. So it's time to move. No one cares where I live. But, you know, I think you're right that from a volume perspective, he will be one among many.

I do think we should, you know, I have made the argument on this podcast before that sometimes men, you know, we think they're handsome, but they're just tall. You know, they're not actually good looking. They're just, I mean, or they're fine, but they're not extraordinary in their good looks, but they happen to be quite tall. Ohtani's a handsome guy. I'm not knocking his handsomeness, but like he does, he is physically large, you know, he's a big man. He stands out in a crowd just because he's like a big guy. Does he stand out relative to LeBron?

I mean, no, no, but like he's closer to that than like your average actor. Those are, those little, those little tiny men. They're such tiny,

small men. Most of the time. Why? They're also small. Why are they also short kinks? Like it's not, it's fine. It's not,

there's nothing wrong with that. You gotta zoom way in to see them. A lot of those men, they're also small why are they also short kinks like it's it's fine it's not there's nothing wrong with that zoom way in to see them a lot of those men they're like shockingly and not just tom cruise but also tom cruise right like a little guy but um but i i think that like he won't be anonymous but it does allow um a potential anonymity and even among you know even as he is the most recognizable, most famous baseball player, I think you're right to think that his like Q score or what, isn't that what they're called? Q scores? What's that about? Why is it Q score? Where does it go? We're potting on a Saturday. I get to be a little loose. It's fine. But, you know, relative to LeBron, for instance, as a market, you know, comp, probably much lower. So, I imagine he'll be able to be anonymous.

Plus, he like, he already knows LA. I know that the Angels don't play in Los Angeles, but I assume that Ohtani like knows the city some because he's lived there for six years. that Otani knows the city some because he's lived there for six years. And I know he's not always in SoCal during the offseason, but I expect he has his little routes to go places and not be front and center. I think it'll be fine. And again, he doesn't have to move. He doesn't have to move.

Although maybe he'll want to move. Maybe I'm overrating for him the burden of the move. Although maybe he'll want to move, you know, maybe I'm, maybe I'm overrating for him the burden of the move, you know, he's moved, he moved across the world. That's what I was, right. And when you're fabulously wealthy, everything is easier just like on a hassle of doing day-to-day things basis. So, yeah, I mean, that is true. Although, as I said before, you spend at least a week being like, I don't know where my favorite coffee cup is. It's supposed to be in this box. And it's not. Maybe your disorientation is more profound in a way when you're a very wealthy person moving because presumably a crew is doing more of the literal heavy lifting, but also probably a lot of the packing.

And so you're like, I don't know what's in these boxes. I didn't pack them. I wonder how long it's going to be until someone tops 700 million. Like that might not happen for many years. And I, you know, people will say 700, even if it turns out to be a lot less than real dollars. 700 is the headline number that everyone will cite. It's going to be like the A-Rod contract where years and years and years go by, I think, before someone tops that one. Soto's not getting $700 million. No, he's not. So, yeah, that is two superstars worth of money.

And he is two superstars, conveniently. He is two superstars. So, yeah, that's going to hold up. That's going to last. I wonder, do you think MLB will revisit any rules around this? Because we were talking about like last offseason. In terms of like deferrals and stuff? Yeah, because this is not like the Ilya Kovalchuk situation where it's just tacking on years, which is a more obvious way of getting around the CBA. And we were talking about how could

you get away with that? And were the Padres think thinking of trying it with Judge and the Phillies with Harper? Like would it be vetoed by MLB if you just tacked on years to lower the average annual value? I think that MLB would if you were obvious about that. But this isn't quite the same thing. This isn't really getting around it exactly. I mean you are still going to have to pay that money ultimately. So I don't like the alternative to this really is just that you would probably give him less money. Right.

Like if you couldn't do the deferral, then they just wouldn't have given him this much. But ultimately, does that even matter? Like any team, I guess, could have just said more of it is deferred. I don't know if it I guess it kind of gets around the intention of the CBA, but not quite as much as just tacking on years where you don't actually intend to play that person. Right. I don't know. I wonder whether this will lead to any stricter language about that or like the percent that you can defer that kind of thing. I mean, maybe, but I also think that if I were, so if I were major league baseball as an entity, I would just take a pass on this one because any, any like, you know, rule re-examination around

this that I think you're right would ultimately just lead to people making less money is going to be a bone of contention with the union. And maybe you say, who's getting this deal? Who else is getting this deal? Like for all our talk about how important it is for, you know, free agents to sort of maximize their value, not only for the benefit that it brings to them, but also, you know, the ripple effects that it has on our understanding of what is what is possible in free agency and the the sort of lift all ships effect it can have like he is such a a unicorn you know he is a truly unique player not in the most unique he's unique like he is there's only the one of him and so i think that if i'm the commissioner i just say look do i feel like maybe there's some a little shenanigans here like a little bit of shenanigans

some effort at shenanigans yeah i maybe think that but i also think that i'm not gonna have to worry about those same shenanigans again at least not in the form that they're taking. And if I'm him, like, and I didn't say anything about, you know, the all literally every deal the Nationals have ever done, seemingly, you know, Betts's contract with the Dodgers had a bunch of deferrals on the back end. You know, I think Harper's has some deferrals in it. Like, those are contracts that are, I think, more likely to be replicated in the free agent market for the tier, the superstar tier of players, non-Ohtani division. And so, if I didn't say anything about those, which I'm more likely to see again, I really, this one, we're not going to see. Now, I say that, and then tomorrow,

Rob Manfred's going to be out there stamping his feet, going, I didn't remember that. Just making everyone sound as insane as I possibly can while we record this. I'm sure he's already rubbing his hands together at the prospect of Otani on the Dodgers in the playoffs. Everyone involved in this who isn't like one of the four teams that was seriously trying to compete for Otani, other than the Dodgers, is thrilled about what's going on. The Dodgers are thrilled. Everybody gets to see him play October or baseball. That makes them thrilled.

The commissioner is, I'm sure, excited that Otani. Think of how prominently this man is going to feature in the advertising for the postseason, provided he is healthy. He's going to be all over it. It's going to be him everywhere. So I am sure that everyone in New York is over the moon. And do they worry about teams trying to do weird nonsense with payroll to obfuscate the rules? Yeah, of course they worry about that. They put those rules in place to try to depress spending across the league. But this, I don't think really, for all we've

talked about, doesn't really change the spending picture in terms of the macro very much because he's a unicorn. He is a special man. Yeah. And I'm sure that there are a lot of fans of the Dodgers already in Japan, just from Nomo and Kuroda and Maeda and on and on, right? Who are probably pretty excited that now Shohei Otani is on. And I know that the Japanese media members, there was a tweet or a story about that, right? That they don't have to move now. They have to be so happy, yeah.

They were like, oh, please stay in the LA area. So now they don't have to pull up stakes and uproot themselves and change their lives. So that's a nice little courtesy from Shohei. That's too much responsibility for one person to have to bear. Like all of these people who I'm sure he knows in some capacity just from them being around the team. I mean, like his, you know, he tends to be pretty removed from the media. So I don't mean to say that he's like best friends with everyone on that beat. But, you know, he sees those folks around and I'm sure he's

like, that's too much responsibility for one person. Being famous seems terrible. I mean, sometimes you get $700 million though. So, that seems nice. That's right. Yeah. And good news for Ipe as well. I guess he doesn't have to move either. And he's been in the L.A. area for most of his life. So who knows? Maybe that was a factor. Why didn't we talk about the Ipe factor? Yeah, why didn't we talk about that? inherently uncomfortable speculating about like what is going to motivate someone to make such a big life decision because i don't know him and you know i think and i'm not trying to point at anyone in particular but like particularly when the player in question is not from the u.s like sometimes the things that people assume are going to motivate him i'm like do you think that or do you think that what is what matters to an archetype of a

japanese person like he can get very ishy like pretty quick and so i haven't wanted to speculate other than the stuff that we know matters to him because of what he said like he wants to win it's clear that making money is important to him because of all the endorsement stuff which is fine but yeah other than that i haven't but now, now it's like maybe it did matter. Maybe that mattered a great deal. Like maybe. Could be. Because like they seem like they have a very good working relationship.

So. When you said Ishii, it reminds me of yet another Japanese Dodgers player, Kaz Ishii. Anyway. There we go. So who else could have overshadowed a one-soto trade to the Yankees? Like Otani? That seems like a long time ago. That seems like an afterthought.

But before we go, I'm sure we'll return to Otani and more details that come out next time. And, you know, sorry, Tyler O'Neill, that we didn't talk about the Tyler O'Neill trade. We'll get to that. We'll get to David Fletcher and Max Stassi. You know, we'll circle back on a future episode, but this is all Otani. So I'm sort of sad that Otani didn't go to Toronto because he would have been a billionaire just about.

I mean, I know he would have been paid in- Oh, because of the exchange rate? He would have been paid in US dollars, I know, but 700 million in US dollars is quite close to a billion in Canadian. It's like 950 or something. But that's not happening. However, we our baseball Twitter draft, it was almost like a salute. It was like, well, that was fun while it lasted. And we talked recently about, oh, is it ever going to be the same as it was on baseball Twitter and some other social media

network? Friday was one of the more entertaining days on social media, on the internet that I can recall, even though absolutely nothing of note happened. It was just riveting. I mean, I guess it was really a day bookended by two John Marossi tweets, right? Technically, I guess it started the night before when someone picked up on the fact that there was a charter flight that was scheduled to leave on Friday morning, flying from LA, Anaheim to Toronto. And everyone thought, Shohei Ohtani, that could be Shohei Ohtani. He might be on that plane. But then things really kicked off on Friday morning when Morosi came out and said, source, Shohei Ohtani's decision is imminent, possibly as early as today, which led to a lot of discussion about how soon imminent is.

And well, if it isn't today, is that actually imminent? I guess it turns out to have been fairly imminent. You know, I guess a day is within the imminent window. No, well, I don't know. I mean, like, I guess it kind of depends, I guess. Maybe it has a more fluid definition. Because, like, we refer, for instance, to some of our partial lists as, like, imminent big leaguers. And we mean, like, within, like, a year.

You know? Right. But you understand the timeline of, like, player development to take place not in a day. And so when I think of imminent as regards to assigning, I mean, like, I can run a Soto trade react now and it's fine. very recent example that was very stressful for me personally so like um imminent to me meant like we're gonna we're gonna get news anytime it means like you and i should wait to pod because there's gonna be news imminently like i'm i feel so bad yeah that was not really stressful the least accurate thing that morosey tweeted on friday Imminent, close enough. The other stuff, not so much. So at that point, we were all on Otani Watch. Okay, this could come any second.

And then we were on Flight Tracker Watch. We were on Plane Watch. And thousands of people were tracking this flight. It was the most tracked flight in the world. There were several thousand people watching. And there's no reason to watch really. You're just watching this blip move across the country. And yet people were, people were to did following this thing across the country. I almost thought we should do like a draft of our favorite things from this day, but it might be confusing to go out of order. But like, as I think you tweeted, like anyone who was saying

that this is boring and we're not making the most of this and Shohei Otani is depriving us of free agent excitement. This was way more exciting than any publicized visit, any boilerplate quotes about, oh yeah, this is a nice team

or yeah, Shohei's nice. We would love to sign him. Boring compared to this. Granted, I guess you had to be some sort of extremely online sicko to be fully plugged into what was happening or not happening on Friday. I'm sure plenty of people who are interested in Shohei Ohtani's destination were blissfully ignorant of any of that and missed out on all the excitement, I suppose, probably a good thing for their lives that they were unaware of this. But for us, for people who are following this that closely, that was as indelible a memory as I'm going to

remember that more than I'm going to remember probably any free agent courtship, certainly any standard one. Anytime you are depending on flight tracker information, which is typically the purview of college football. Yeah. And an opera singer saying that he knows about a dinner reservation and then us inferring that that means it's a celebration of Otani. You're having a fun day celebration of otani you're having a fun day you know you're having a fun day on the internet and i again i don't want to downplay how stressful and not great like it probably felt for various people whose names start with j but um like the rest of it was delightfully fun um because what is an opera singer doing in this conversation?

What is that? Who is that guy? So great. Who does he know? Who is it connected to? And did Kikuchi find out that his dinner was an important subplot in the Otani signing stuff and be like, do I have to move it? in the Otani signing stuff and be like, do I have to move it? Like, do I have to cancel my dinner?

Because there's going to be like, you know, like half the Blue Jays beat is going to show up to dinner and be like, is Otani in there? Like, where is he? Like Clarence Frazier, a baritone Canadian opera singer. When I was looking at his profile to gauge how reliable this was, his profile said foodie. And I was like, oh, okay, he's a foodie. I guess he knows about restaurants. Somehow that made it. Ben's like, yeah, that's how you know about restaurants.

You're a foodie, you know? Made it somehow seem more credible to me. But that was like 45 minutes into the flight. This opera singer tweets, according to a source, that Kikuchi had reserved an entire upscale sushi restaurant near Rogers Center for 50 plus people. And his source, possibly someone replied to his tweet to say, I hope your source isn't me who shared the news on a radio show this morning because someone texted into our show this morning saying this. And I made it very clear that this was not a credible report, but just something we

joked about. So I don't know if he just lifted that after hearing it on the radio or what, but everyone's like, oh, the plane is in the air. Kikuchi has reserved sushi dinner to celebrate the signing. And none of that happened. None of that was even remotely true. Do we know that none of it happened? Maybe the dinner did happen. Who knows? Kikuchi might've just had the whole restaurant to himself, sadly. But flight N616RH is in the air this entire time, which you can buy a t-shirt of that. No way. Oh my god.

And then, okay, so while this flight is in the air, while we're watching this, it's hard to even pick. Max Domi, who is a Maple Leafs player, NHL player, he tweeted like LFG Blue Jays with three exclamation points. And people thought that this meant that he knew something. He knew, yeah.

But no, presumably he was just reading the same baseless rumors that everyone else was reading, right? Oh, my gosh. Then, of course, Dodgers Nation reports that it's done, that he's not going to the Dodgers, that multiple sources have informed. JP Hornstra, I feel bad even like piling on because probably not the best day for JP, I'm guessing. No. He's been an effectively wild listener. But, you know, he's a BBWA member. He's covered the Angels and the Dodgers.

So people thought, OK, well, maybe he has some sources here. And it was pretty definitive that he had actually pitched the Blue Jays and that the Dodgers front office was resigned to this not happening. Immediately after that report comes out, Alden Gonzalez and others say, no, this isn't true. He hasn't made a decision yet. But they didn't deny that it might happen. It was just like, he hasn't made the decision yet, but it wasn't actually he's going to the Dodgers or he's not going to the Blue Jays. So Blue Jays fans still had hope. And then Morosi comes in off the top rope again and tweets that according to his sources, Otani is in the air.

He is en route to Toronto. I guess he didn't say in the air, but presumably he wasn't taking a covered wagon to Toronto. And that was the first, I guess, quote unquote confirmation, credible report that that actually was Otani maybe flying to Toronto. Because before then it was entirely speculation. Right. Just based on the flight going from where he was to Toronto. But Moresi says, okay, he actually is on his way to Toronto. And then that elicited a round of refutations of that, where multiple writers chimed in

to say, actually, no, he is not. And as you said, you know, the hero that we needed was Bob Nightingale, just bolstering his reputation. Shohei Otani is not all caps in Toronto. Shohei Otani is not all caps on a flight to Toronto. Otani is at home in Southern California. And man, Bob must not have known how right he was because apparently he's so at home in Southern California. Yep. And man, Bob must not have known how right he was because apparently he's so at home in Southern California

that he wants to stay there for 10 more years. But at that point, it was just like, what is happening here? We're just running around like chicken that hatched

but didn't hatch but with their heads cut off. Anyway. Schrodinger's dismembered hatched chicken. Yes. There you go. There's your episode title because i think that what you should do is not put otani in it yeah yeah just confuse people and then the plane landed because it was a real flight and like the cbc sent photographers out is it otani and no in a great twist it turns turns out to be Shark Tank member Robert Herjavec, Canadian many-time multimillionaire.

Oh my gosh. Although I guess his net worth, according to Google, is like $200 to $300 million. So Otani just dwarfs his net worth or will. Blowing him out of the water. Yeah. And there's actually a picture of him like walking off the plane that, you know, someone was like a professional photographer. He since posted on Instagram about this once, I guess he was informed once it was explained to him what the heck was happening here. So people were like, what if it's just some random rich guy? And yeah, it was like a rich guy that people knew the name of.

Yeah. I mean, like, he is not completely random. He is a known rich guy. He's not, like, one of those rich guys where, you know, they have, like, 10 buildings at a university named after them. And then you're like, and their family did war crimes. So weird. I mean, I don't know. Maybe his family has done war crimes. I don't know him.

Like, I don't know what they're about. But real loose. It's a Saturday. It's almost 5 p.m. on a Saturday. Then we're recording the pod. We're doing doing instant react. But yeah, it was it was delightful. I don't know a lot about private planes because I have never flown private. like the faith and enthusiasm that was being put into the private plane rumor because i was like toronto's a major city flying private to toronto from south southern california doesn't strike me as a thing that is like super rare no it's not like you know colleges and universities are all in all kinds of random yes places so like when college coaches do this and even then it doesn't always work out but like when college coaches do this it and even then it doesn't always work out, but like when college coaches do this, it's like, yeah, it's weird that there's like a charter flight from like random city to Lubbock. Cause it's like, who's going to Lubbock? College coaches,

you know, and the people who go to school at Texas Tech. But yeah, I was like, this is, this is delightful. This is a lot of faith to be pinned on this particular thing. And then those poor Blue Jays fans, you know, they get this confirmation. And then they have an out because, and I'm not trying to speak ill of Bob, but like, you know, sometimes Bob's tweets aren't right. Sometimes they're wrong. And so, you know, if you're a Blue Jays fan, you're like, well, but it's coming from Bob. So like, maybe he is on the flight.

That's a long flight. Like, we were allowed to, like, luxuriate in this for a while. Yes. And I was like, do private planes not go very fast? Or is that, like, how long it normally takes? We're going to get emails about that. If JJ Cooper is listening, I defer to your expertise on this because you know about planes. They were crossing a continent.

I don't, yeah. But people were tweeting fake videos of Otani arriving at other airports that people fell for. And then it was like instant memes because as soon as Nightingale tweeted that he wasn't there, everyone was tweeting that they could confirm that Shohei Otani was not in some other place, right? Everyone was like, Otani's not here either. So that, there was a whole round of those tweets. And then some of my favorite things, like just randomly in the middle of that, like Rosenthal would tweet that the Tigers were signing Anthony Ben Boone to a minor league contract with an invitation to spring trading. It's like, not now. Like just hold the Ben Boone news, you know, because we kind of have a one track mind right now.

We're waiting for the biggest boom, you know? Yes, exactly. And as you said, there was the Drake, right? Jake Instagrammed or whatever a photo of himself with a 17 jersey. But I recollect that because that's an all-star jersey. Yeah. Was that in the past that that happened? that's an All-Star jersey. Yeah, was that in the past that that happened? I think that's an old photo. I don't think that he was, like, walking around in his,

I mean, maybe he was doing it on that day to try to, like, manifest Motani signing with Toronto. But, like, I recall him wearing those, that jersey around the All-Star game and it generating some amount of attention because, you know. Maybe he reposted it, though. Maybe.

Possibly. That could be true. I think that might have happened. Anyway. That could be true. Man, it was wild. I will remember it always. It was.

And then, like, Jim Bowden was tweeting about this, too. And, like, this was really rich because he was getting all snippy about people who were reporting things that didn't happen. And he was like he's not made a decision. He said all other reports are not true. He didn't mean like every report about everything probably. But all other Otani reports. And then he said people need to stop lying and guessing. Like Jim, Ralph himself, like criticizing this.

And also like he had that morning tweeted about the flight tracker. I mean, he said like, I don't know that this is Otani, but still, you know, he was fanning the flames too. So come on, man. Yeah. Yeah. You can't be, you can't, you can't. Yeah, no, no. This just reinforced, I guess, that it's

you know, it's Passner-Rosenthal or you just have to take it with a grain of salt, right? I mean, it's, you know, others will break news sometimes, but they just don't quite have the hit rate. You can't quite trust it to the same extent. And that doesn't mean that, like you said, it doesn't mean that other people

don't break news or that like, you know, that Jeff and Ken are perfect. No. There have been misfires there also, but I, yeah, the success rate is really high. You know, they do very, Yeah, the success rate is really high. You know, they do very good, consistent work, and they are quite careful. Yeah, and when they're not tweeting, when they're silent through that whole saga. Yeah, that's generally a sign that we don't have the full story yet. Which isn't to say that, like, other things can't emerge or that parts of it can't be real. I mean, like, in this case, like, dramatically not true. Dramatically, but uh yeah what do you think otani was thinking during that like do you think he was

very hard for the probably right i mean i would be i would be so amused if i were him because you have the stated preference for privacy you know where you're signing right and so you know you're definitely not on a plane to toronto right like looking out at all the things that are in southern california all around you being like that's in southern california and that's in southern california and that's in southern california and i'm in southern california and my unnamed dog is in southern california mystery dog i'm putting probably has a name. We just don't know it. Yeah, my anonymous

dog. I mean, he's a mystery to us. You're right. He wouldn't refer to his dog as a mystery. He knows the dog's name. Unless, as I've said, that dog is too perfect and isn't real. And then maybe that's why he hasn't told us the name because

it's an illusion dog. You know, fake dog. Could be. It's why he hasn't told us the name because it's like a, it's an illusion dog, you know, fake dog. Could be. It's too cute a dog. Something's wrong with, something's wrong with that dog, Ben. I don't, I don't know what, but something's wrong with that dog.

What a time we had. And then it all came full circle and ended, I guess, officially 11.05 p.m. Morosi tweets again. Today I posted reporting that included inaccurate information that Shohei Otani was traveling to Toronto.

I regret the mistake and apologize to baseball fans everywhere. I'm deeply sorry for letting you down. You know, look, we had more fun because of your inaccurate report. We did. I don't mind. You know, I mean, I'd feel bad if I were him, but I'm happy that it happened personally. So people responded to that with the Castellanos Brenneman meme, obviously. Anyway, man, what a wild day that was.

Mistakes happen and you're right. We had a lot of fun, but like that was the right thing for John to do. Like, yeah, no, be accountable. Sure. You got to be accountable when you make those mistakes. And I think, you know, you're more likely to garner goodwill and have confidence in your reporting going forward if you own mistakes when you make them. So that was the right call. But man, I so love that an opera singer was involved. Like if you had asked me prior to the start of free agency, will there be an opera singer subplot in Otani's free agent decision? I would have said no and i think that people would have agreed with me um man he really he really did screw up my my uh over under

draft though wow oh yeah you really he really screwed up good i mean otani good job i tip my hat to you yep and we'll find out uh you know there have been reports like maybe i mean the dodgers didn't know no one knew for sure on Friday night. Maybe they made their offer much richer at the last minute once there was so much smoke surrounding Toronto. Could be. Hopefully, we'll get some insights into that. Oh, yeah. There's so many conspiracy permutations, right? Yes.

And I say all of these not having any idea if any of them are real. Like, there's a, you know, there's a scenario in which, like, the Toronto stuff is all like a smokescreen from otani's people to like drive up the dodgers offer there's there's like the dodgers planting false information because they want time to resolve the contract negotiation with otani without scrutiny because they know that otani cares about privacy like there's a there's there's a scenario where the opera singer is just keen to be, I don't know his name, so maybe he's not keen to be famous because I keep referring to him as the opera singer. But what is the opera singer's angle in all of this? I'm so fascinated by the opera singer. I know. Boy. Yeah. We can't use the, when the fat lady sings the fat lady song about Shohei Otani.

I guess we can't use that in this case. But no, that was just the most random. Of all the characters, yeah. Yeah, right. That added to it so much. And all the people analyzing the flight information. Amazing. Amazing day.

Amazing. Yeah. Wow. His name is Clarence Frazier, by the way. Clarence Frazier. Clarence. Clarence. Yep. Tell us about yourself, sir. I want to know how, why, is Clarence a baseball fan? You know? Right. I don't know. I don't know. I don't know anything about clarence you know we should have him on the podcast yeah i i do think that we will start to get movement now you know beyond otani because he's this big gating factor so presumably we will have other transactions beyond just like tyler tyler o'neill and yeah you know, David Fletcher. I know.

The Max Stassi's already been flipped to the White Sox. Yes, right. He's moved twice in the last two days, you know. The Blue Jays have to do something. There's nothing they can do, really, to assuage the disappointment of being the runners-up or one of the runners-up for Otani. But now Blue Jays fans know they have money to spend. Sure, yeah. one of the runners up for Otani, but now Blue Jays fans know they have money to spend. Sure.

Yeah. It was just not to say they need to spend 600 million on a bunch of other people who aren't Shohei Otani, but if you were one of the finalists and you didn't get him, then you kind of got to do something because your fans are super sad right now. Blue Jays fans, super sad. I know like no one who reads for the Blue Jays and who is following that

saga on Friday got any work done whatsoever. No. But yeah, I hope there's something that takes the sting out of this a little bit after having come close and emerging empty handed. Yeah. I mean, like I, there are still good players on the market. They're not Otani, but there are still good players there. And I hope that the Blue Jays find some to their liking that help to bolster their club. You know who's really happy today? It's the Yankees.

The Yankees are thrilled. The Yankees are over the mood because they still have a Juan Soto and the Blue Jays do not have an Otani. It's true. They're sitting there going, what a day for us. Really came out ahead.

And with Otani, maybe the Blue Jays would have been the favorites, but AL East, a little less sure of a path to the postseason or to a division title than he'll have in LA. But yeah, the Blue Jays have been connected to so many players and they have signed some, but they've been connected to so many that they didn't sign that I know the Puget's feds are probably like, here we go again. Plus the team has been kind of disappointing. So yeah,

that that's a bummer, but at least we had Friday. We had Friday. I guess we can end here. Just two of the most eventful days. Yeah. Baseball that I can recall, even though only one of them had a real event.

The other was completely eventless, at least the event that we were waiting for. And now we await a flurry of signings that we will be excited for, but less excited for, because none of them are going to have $700 million attached to them. Exactly. All right. Just Ben here. I meant to say this, but I think Friday is even funnier in retrospect now that he went to the Dodgers. Sorry, Blue Jays fans. But if he had ultimately gone to Toronto just on a different day, then clearly there would have been some substance to all the rumors.

Whereas now it sort of seems like not only was he en route to Toronto, but he probably wasn't going to be. So we were working ourselves into a tizzy for nothing. But that's OK. It was a ton of fun to be in that tizzy. Also, closing thought, this just occurred to me. I don't really root for any team anymore, but I have watched a whole lot of Angels baseball over the past several years while watching Otani and Trout. It was nice to have those two on one team to kind of concentrate my interests. But the downside was that I watched a lot of bad baseball. And you know what? I'm not going to be a Dodgers fan now, but I am going to watch more Dodgers than I did. And it will be kind of nice to get to see some other good baseball players and maybe a winning baseball team while I'm taking in Otani. Would have applied to just about anywhere he went that that team would probably be better than the Angels had been. But yeah, you know, not mad about that. I'd also not be mad. In fact, I would be the opposite of mad. I would be quite happy if you would support Effectively Wild on Patreon, which you can do by going to patreon.com slash

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