Effectively Wild: A FanGraphs Baseball Podcast - Effectively Wild Episode 2179: Missed Connections

Episode Date: June 18, 2024

Ben Lindbergh and Meg Rowley banter about whether Nike’s City Connect uniforms have run their course, the Dodgers’ double whammy of injuries to Mookie Betts and Yoshinobu Yamamoto (and Kyle Bradish going back on the IL), the approaching returns of Gerrit Cole, Max Scherzer, and Clayton Kershaw, Carlos Correa’s hot streak, Elly De La Cruz […]

It's the Wildly Effective, Effectively Wild. It's been made a long shingle. It's the Bad to Pain Award. You might hear something you never heard before. Hello and welcome to episode 2179 of Effectively Wild, a baseball podcast from Fangraphs presented by our Patreon supporters. I am Ben Lindberg of The Ringer, joined by Meg Rowley of Fangraphs. Hello, Meg.

Hello. Can I ask you to elaborate on a slightly spicy tweet of yours? Oh, you're putting me on the spot then, but sure, sure. Not that spicy, just semi-spicy. It had some seasoning. A couple hours before we started recording, you tweeted, think we can be done with the City Connects, yeah? And you're not the only one who has expressed this sentiment,

but I also saw some people in your replies expressing dissimilar sentiments. So what's your take on the City Connects and what prompted this outburst? So, what's your take on the City Connects and what prompted this outburst? I'm so glad that you asked, Ben, because I put so much thought and care into that tweet and definitely anticipated the level of engagement it would get. I guess it isn't getting that much engagement. I shouldn't feel so fancy. Look, I think that some of the initial City Connect offerings were cool, you know? I think some of them looked really sharp. I think some of them spoke to the place where the team plays, which is, as I understand it, the entire point of this exercise, right? I, for instance,

really like the Washington Nation nationals cherry blossom city connects i think those are gorgeous well i wouldn't want to watch a game while they're wearing them while i have a migraine i like the padres ones there's a lot going on i think that we could simplify some of the colors because there are so many but very fun you know vibrant feels like it's kind of speaking to a vibe that san diego has like that a lot i like the top half of the mariners city connects um they should they should have been a canary in the coal mine for us though about the just unhinged insistence on the black and dark blue which seems to be all over these. I think actually, you know what my favorite ones might be?

This might be the hottest take of all. I love the Angels ones. I think the Angels ones are so great. I think that they nailed the period detail of SoCal, like a particular energy and vibe and time. I think those are really good but here's the thing a lot of them you know the most that they can aspire to is to be forgettable you know to be unremarked upon which seems like a silly thing to do uh for for a set of uniforms where the the real purpose if we're being candid and allowing ourselves to be a touch cynical, is to sell you something, right?

Yes, of course. Like, the whole idea is buy this hat. I will say, sorry, this is a disjointed rant, but I wasn't prepped, Ben. You didn't tell me to do this rant, so here I am. I'm doing it off the top of my head. I like a lot of the hats. I think a lot of the hats are really strong. Like, I don't like the Space City Houston ones.

I think that it's trying to do, do they call it Space City? I know that Houston is home to, like, Mission Control. I get that part, but, like, Space City, do they call it Space City? Maybe I'm just not appreciating the local type, but the hats are great. The hats are wonderful. I think the Rays hats this season. Fantastic. The the Ray that is also meant to look like the bridge. Beautiful, Ben. Like, but a lot of that fabric lying around or potentially had like over ordered the dye lots for that blue and that black why are so many of them blue and black what is up with that why you can't distinguish the one from the other also a lot of them are kind of hard to read like they don't translate well on camera and we're already struggling to read the jerseys this year Ben like famously we are struggling to read the jerseys this year ben like famously we are struggling to read the jerseys many of them look like they should be

the uniforms for like an esports team like they have like streamer vibe to me like um i know many people like the cincy city connects but to me they look like they're getting ready to play fortnite or some other streaming kind of thing and do that for your pleasure, but not for baseball. So I think that they've run their course. And it's frustrating because we know that many teams have not received alternates that they have worn in prior seasons to great fanfare and acclaim. And so why are we focusing on giving the Dodgers a funfetti uniform rather than, say, making sure that the Mariners have their full Steelheads uniforms to wear in recognition of the Negro Leagues instead of wearing the hats with their normal unis?

What is that business? And also, you can still see through the pants, Ben. You can see through. I can see through those pants, you know? Otani is standing there, and I'm like, I'm seeing the edge of Otani's, you know, shirt tail. I was only going to say shirt tail. Don't make it dirty, Ben. I was only going to say shirt tail. Don't make it.

Don't make it dirty, Ben. I wouldn't dream of it. Yeah. So all of that to say, I like when we have the flexibility to like mix things up, you know, and to to not be stodgy because it can be a stodgy sport. sport but i i think that because especially because teams are limited in how many uniforms and alternates they're like allowed to roster is probably not the right word but roster in any given season like we should be particular about these things and why did the diamondbacks get rid of their throwbacks why aren't they wearing those this year which uniform is taken out they they are not getting a new City Connect.

I like the Diamondbacks City Connects. I think it kind of has a nice desert vibe. But again, it's just, why are we? Anyway, so, and I want to make clear to people who are maybe less familiar with my stance on uniforms and hats. I like ugly stuff. You know, we could call my taste into question i'm willing to to you know endure that barb because it's a fair one i have some just unwell hats ben you know i have some hats that are well they're in the closet i don't wear them out because you know i bought

them and i'm like oh this is great i'm to make this hat my entire personality. And then it came and I was like, I don't know if I want to be this person in Sprouts, you know, like, so they're just sitting in like the wardrobe with all the other hats. Fun, festive, let's express where we're from. You know, baseball has this deeply entrenched sense of place in its franchises. And now it just feels like a straight cash grab. Although an ineffectual one, because, like, who is buying the funfetti jersey? Yeah, that I don't know. I sensed that there were some additional thoughts behind your 10-word tweets. So I thought maybe i'd let you air those and now i'm reconsidering that whole plan no they were great they were great like look look

look when people want to make fun of the city of los angeles they make fun of it having like this sprawling cultureless smoggy vibe and i don't think that that's a fair thing to say about that city because like people live there they build community they build neighborhoods they come together around hitting the traffic and like um we should acknowledge those things but also this looks like the uniform of like a pretend team that you would just shoot a movie about on the backlots. Also, like why is Otani's belt a different color than Will Smith and Freddie Freeman's belt? Why on Otani's jersey can you see like his full number, but the other numbers are cut off? I think it's because they're worried that cutting off 17 will make it ambiguous as to what number it is.

Question mark? Ben, they're so bad. I don't have such strong feelings about CityConnect. Because you know I'm not a big uniform guy. And so this whole- I know, you don't care about this at all. Concept just isn't for me, really, one way or the other. And I can't get into the whole hullabaloo when one of these things leaks, someone cites a City Connect that hasn't been formally unveiled yet, and everyone goes wild. Or when the official announcement comes, there's always some very long, in-depth explanation of every design point. And

hey, I'm happy that there's some thought that goes into these things. But every tiny aspect of these uniforms symbolizes something or stands for something. And it often sounds like sort of a stretch and like a connection that no one would make unless they read the press release. Or there'll be maps and diagrams inside the caps, which you can't see unless I guess you buy one. Or when the Mets announced their City Connect earlier this year, they said that the dark gray represented the sidewalks of New York City, which I know we New Yorkers think we invented and own everything, but sidewalks, not unique to New York. And are we proud of our sidewalks? I don't know. But I feel kind of like we had a member of our Facebook group, oh, a week or so ago,

posted something that I identified with, which I will quote. This is from Caleb Brooks, who wrote, any team releases their City Connect uniforms. Me, oh, those are kind of neat. Literally everyone else on the internet, these are the worst creation in history and the team should be disbanded for even thinking these were worthy to be seen by the public. Like sometimes I'll see one and I'll think, oh yeah, okay, that seems fine. And everyone else will be ready to just tar and feather whoever designed it and burn them in effigy. And I'm like, tar and feather, whoever designed it and burned them in effigy. And I'm like, I just don't really know what the big deal is. But I similarly don't get all that excited about the good ones that people like. So I'm kind of just okay with this, even if it's not really, I'm not going to

be buying these jerseys. This is not really marketing to me. But where I'm with you, I think, is that we're now in round two with this Dodgers city. This is this is take two on the Dodgers, because every team that wants one has one at this point. Every team except the Yankees, who consider the pinstripes too sacred to befoul with any alternative design. Oh, my God. I'm sorry. That is so obnoxious. I mean, I respect it because it means they don't have one of these like weird gamer uniforms that they're wearing. But get Hal Steinbrenner said, I'm not having any serious conversations about doing it. I think I understand the reason.

And again, I think it appeals to a lot of fans, especially younger fans and, you know, merchandise and all that. But we've not had any serious conversations about doing it. Doesn't mean I won't do it someday, but I don't even know how that would look, quite frankly. I don't even know what that look would be. I mean, credit to them, I guess, for not going for the money grab as they do in many other ways. But yes, there's them and then the A's who are just actively in the process of disconnecting from their city. So they can't really have a city connect until they figure out what their city is going to be, I guess. And that is going to be in flux for a while, but everyone else has one.

And so I think conceptually, it was kind of a cool thing. Hey, let's try out some new stuff and we can try some more experimental looks and we can give people options. And if they like it, they can sport it and that's fun for them. But now we're going back to the well because the Dodgers already got one and now they're getting another. I think if everyone had one and we said, okay, let's take a beat here, maybe a breather before we start redesigning the City Connects, because there are diminishing returns, really, with the novelty value of it, at least, where maybe we should wait a few years before the reboot. And I guess it's been a few years for the Dodgers. They've had City Connects since 2021. So now we've circled all the way around to the first ones again.

But it's just not enough time between reboots, really. And I could see a case that, hey, we're too precious about uniforms and you could be experimenting constantly. But again, I think there is something to just having a constant look once you find one that you like, you know, and we can anticipate that and we can grow used to that and there's a tradition associated with it. So I think not too often, you can't keep going back to that. Well, that would be my bit of feedback here over and above any individual complaints about designs, which I understand, but don't really share or get very animated about. I'm not going to pretend that I know what it feels like to come from every place. I don't know every place,

you know, maybe, maybe some of these are totally legible to the people who live in these places. You know what I mean? Like maybe the good people of Cincinnati and also Tampa Bay and also arguably Toronto, maybe they're all gamers, you know? Maybe they're all like, this speaks to my love of both my local baseball franchise and Fallout. You know, maybe that's true, Ben. Do people play Fallout competitively? No, right? They play other stuff, though.

What's the hot esports circuit these days? What's the hottest circuit you know call of duty valorance fortnight overwatch etc which is just pub g i mean i don't know anything about about video games but i learned that having watched people play pub g and enjoyed it and then i got really offended and i was like what you think we're so you think we're so simple that we will like pub g better with a bunch of characters from random franchises that aren't even related to this and the answer i guess is like overwhelmingly yes but um yes i still find it confusing i didn't know you had a rant on on that topic too on pub g yeah i i feel i feel like

they were wrong standing up for pub g here yeah look yeah i just really enjoy it's true that fortnite does absorb every other video game but and every other media property it is the metaverse but yes do they have feet in and lower bodies in fortnite because like famously don't they not have feet or lower halves in the metaverse or they don't have hands or they don't they're like missing in the original zuckerberg design yes that was a an issue legs anyway legs people have legs with city connects so that's good and sometimes we can see too much of them we can see so much of their legs the point is some people growing tired of the city connects maybe we we need to just have a bit of a breather before the next round. But hey, if you like your latest City Connect and you want to wear one, yeah, we're happy for you and not in a condescending way. I really am. This is not my particular bailiwick, but I have many things that I care about that other people don't care about. So UniWatch, I respect. Paul Lucas, happy retirement. You've done wonderful work. I've been a subscriber at times. It's just not my particular way to nerd out about baseball or sports, but I understand it. I respect it.

I have to underscore, I don't think my tastes are necessarily good in this regard, right? Like, I do like ugly stuff, you know? Not all of the crazy hats, you know? Like, some people are like, who's the target audience for this new era hat? And just in case you're thinking, like, every time it's me, no, no. But sometimes, yeah.

And like, look, I like the teal Mariner's uniforms. Highly controversial stance in the Mariner community. You liked the bloody Diamondbacks uniforms. I did like the bloody Diamondbacks uniforms. It's true. But last year they brought back the, it doesn't matter. They brought back the pinstripes, the purple pinstripes. They're so beautiful.

And like, why? Why? Some of those uniforms were criticized at the time for being outside the traditional color palette. And then decades go by and suddenly they look classic to our eyes. They look retro or it aged well. And maybe we just had to get used to it. So I'm open to that, too. Every time a new City Connects comes out, it's like a website redesign, which Fangraphs recently went through on its player pages, right?

How dare you? How dare you? comes out, it's like a website redesign, which Fangraphs recently went through on its player pages, right? Some people, you know. How dare you? I hate to link this back to your website, but sometimes it does take a while for people to acclimate to a new look and new functionality. And then they realize, oh, actually, I like this. So

maybe there's some of that going on with the City Connects. I'm not linking the Fangraphs player pages to the Dodgers' new City Connects. I'm just saying maybe there is a bit of initial, oh, this is new and scary and upsets me. And then we have to just get used to it over time. And then it grows on us. But maybe this won't grow on you. I think the important thing is that they have the names and numbers be legible and the pants less transparent and the tops and the bottoms the same shade.

And once they get that figured out, then that will be a problem that really needs addressing even more than maybe the excess City Connects. And I guess we could say that whichever jersey the Dodgers are wearing these days, they're in a little bit of trouble because of some injuries they've suffered. Not injuries to their aesthetics perpetrated by Nike, but actual physical injuries that have led to some significant losses for them here. Mookie Betts has broken a bird bone and he got hit by a 98 mile per hour pitch. I never know whether to round up because it was a 97.9 mile per hour pitch. I would round up in that instance. Technically not 98,

but we're accustomed to these numbers being rounded up, right? Yes, we are. When we see them on broadcasts, et cetera. So a 98 mile per hour pitch that catches you in the right bird bone or the wrong bird bone and it's going to hurt. And the initial reports were that he will not need surgery. But even if he doesn't, he's going to miss some time, I think is how Dave Roberts put it, some time.

And I think Dave Roberts also said some time is the length of the absence of Yoshinobu Yamamoto, who is also going to be out because, well, initially it seemed like he had a triceps issue. So they gave him a little extra time after his previous start. He threw 106 pitches. He said he experienced some tricep soreness, so they gave him a little extra time. And then that recurred. He felt it on the day he pitched anyway, and that was bugging him again. And he got removed from the game. And then it turned out that it was not win-loss-wise, Sunday, good day for the Dodgers. They beat the Royals 3-0. Taro Glasnow, seven shutout innings. All the runs come on.

Shohei Otani and Freddie Freeman home runs. That's just how the Dodgers drew things up. But not so great when it comes to the health front. These are two big absences. Obviously, Mookie was, and as we speak, still is leading the National League in fan graphs war. So that will not be the case for long. Yeah, and I think that there's all of this vaunted depth, both on the Dodgers active roster and sort of on the 40 men and within their organization more broadly. within their their organization more broadly but i i would perhaps argue in some ways these are the losses they're sort of least well positioned to cushion internally because like the the step down from bets to miguel rojas is like a pretty meaningful one and you could say that about any of the sort of on roster in-house options they have to fill in for for bets traded for kevin

biggio right before the bird button break right but like we talked when we talked about them trading for kevin biggio about how like he didn't end up meriting a write-up on his own so like you know he has an 86 wrc plus like he can stand there and he's not a bad defender but it's just it's it's a pretty meaningful drop and you know they employed this volume strategy in the offseason when it came to addressing the rotation and they are getting guys back and should be getting guys back soon who are good right but they you know they are not yet um at full strength when it comes to their rotation. Although things look like they're going well for Kershaw, you know, Bobby Miller should be back soon. But it is a more compromised group.

And I do wonder, like, how they will think about, you know, the shortstop and second base of it all. base of it all because when you think about the options available in a potential trade market like i don't know that other than beau bachette that they're really all that sterling you know what i mean so it's gonna be i think a little more kind of touch and go for them than it would have otherwise been now they have i mean they still have tyler glasnow they still have walker bueller they still have gavin stone like they're gonna get I said, they're getting Kershaw back. They're going to get Bobby Miller back. They have guys who they should see able to kind of come back, and eventually Betts will too. But we know a couple of things, which is, you know, we don't necessarily have a super precise timeline on it. So, we are kind of playing a little bit of a guessing game there. And we also know that like sometimes guys will come back having broken those little bird bones and they're not quite the same in the power department. And I know that you have refuted that dive on that, at least not recently. I think I cited something that said something to that effect.

I'm not sure I've done any research on it myself. But yeah, I think they're going to just try to get by with the Miguel's for now. Miguel Vargas, Miguel Rojas and Mookie. Let's say he's out two months, three months. It does sort of sink his chances of winning an NL MVP award, and it would be fun to see him win one in each league and join Frank Robinson in that exclusive club. And I guess I should be happy that given that Otani is a hair behind him on the Fangraphs world leaderboard in the NL, that it only enhances his chances. But it would have been fun to see Mookie make it through a full season as a shortstop doing everything else that he's doing. And I guess you could question the Dodgers' overall strategy here

where they've ended up mixing and matching and shifting guys in middle infield spots, which are pretty important. They have decided to skimp on some areas and splurge on others. to skimp on some areas and splurge on others. So of course they have had Trey Turner, they've had Corey Seeger, and those guys left to some extent. The Dodgers allowed them to leave or didn't prioritize keeping them and sort of kept their powder and their dollars dry to break the bank on Otani and Yamamoto, et cetera. And so they've ended up with Gavin Lux, who they were kind of counting on to be the next guy at one of those spots, certainly. And that hasn't panned out the way that they were hoping. And then they move Mookie to short, which has worked okay, but is not something you do lightly. And then also playing some other guys who were good glove guys,

but not necessarily your first choice at that position. So some things have not gone according to plan there. And you wonder whether in retrospect, they wish that they had made more of an effort or bid higher to hold on to one of those franchise shortstop types and avoid all of this uncertainty. And hey, they're the Dodgers. Who's to say they couldn't have done that and also everything else that they did.

But it has left them with some thinness more so than you expect of the Dodgers. And what everyone has pointed out is that for most other teams, if they were to lose, maybe their best position player, best pitcher, or it's hard to choose because the one and one A

are pretty close on these teams. You've got Glasnow, you've got Otani, you've got Freeman, et cetera. But one of their two best position players and one of their two best pitchers, at least. And yet, you're not really worried about the Dodgers making it to October. They have an eight-game lead in the West. No one else is over 500 in that division. Their odds of winning the division, according to fan graphs, even factoring in these losses, 92%. So it's not like they've lost these guys and you're thinking, oh, maybe the Padres, the Diamondbacks, the Giants, maybe they make a run. That still seems like a long shot. And so if they have healthy Mookie and healthy Yamamoto back

when the playoffs roll around, then maybe ultimately no great harm done. But you do have to be kind of concerned about anything involving rotator cuff. Like, you know, Dave Robertson said it's not season ending. And in theory, it's not. But any kind of arm or shoulder related injury makes you skittish, makes you concerned about whether that guy's going to come back and be at full strength. Well, and I guess I should say, you know, people might be like, rotation, man, they got all these people. They dulled in volume. You just said that. But like that rotation, you know, if they suffer no more setbacks and they only get guys back, right? It's just like,

oh, these guys coming back. They're in great shape. But like, they're all injury risks. I mean, they're pitchers. And they're also like a lot of those guys have injury history. So it just makes you feel a little tense, I would imagine, if you're a Dodger fan. Because it's like, how many of these are we going to reasonably be expected to absorb before it becomes a significant problem? And you're right. Like, I don't think that they're actually going to get a huge amount of challenge from that division. I know that, you know, like the Padres are playing better than I expected them to. The Diamondbacks should get guys back, especially on the pitching side. But I think that this is clearly the best roster, even with the injuries. But it's, you know, it's going to be more difficult now. They have margin, but it's I wouldn't be surprised if they ended up having to eat into that margin. And as you said, Bobby Miller, he'll be back Wednesday.

And so they do have five guys. Somehow James Paxton has held up this long. He's not looked good. No, the peripherals are not so great for Paxton. But he's exceeded my expectations, at least just by being available and pitching this much. And then, yeah, everyone, Glasnow, Buehler, all these guys have injury records. I mean, most pitchers do, but more so than most pitchers. And then they've got Kevin Stone, too. And as you mentioned, Kershaw on the comeback trail. So they'll be okay, assuming Yamamoto will be okay at some point. But you just never know because so much buzz about Yamamoto and his mechanics and they're so fluid and his stretching routine and his durability. And you just, you never really know. And I know that coming over, starting more frequently than he did on the NPP schedule and different ball and all the other adjustments I've looked in the past. And if you

compare to peers of the same age, pitchers who come over from Japan don't seem to age any worse than others. I know there's a perception that they don't hold up as well, but as I've tried to document and documented to my satisfaction, at least it seems to be just that they come over at more advanced ages than we kind of think because they're new to MLB fans, but they're not new to professional baseball. They have a lot of mileage on those arms. And Yamamoto is young for an NPB ace coming over here, but he's been pitching for quite a while. So we'll see how those guys bounce back. But it's a bummer because who doesn't love watching Mookie? And Yamamoto's been

a ton of fun to watch too. So it sort of stinks to be without them for a while. And then there's been some other bad injury news, most notably Kyle Bradish of the Orioles. I spoke too soon when he came back and I was like, hey, maybe this is the rare success story. You know, guy who's got elbow issues and shuts it down for a bit and tries rest and rehab and PRP and doesn't go under the knife. And I think I couched that at the time. I was like, well, we'll see. You know, he's not necessarily out of the woods. No pitcher ever is, but we'll see if he holds up.

And he seemed to be okay for a while and he was pitching pretty well. But now he has elbow soreness again and he's back on the IL and how can you not fear the worst? We haven't heard the worst, but that is pretty worrisome. So we've lost a few players. However, we also have a few coming back and that's heartening.

And Garrett Cole, it's been announced while we were recording that he will make his return on Wednesday. So it was clear that that was imminent. He'll be back soon. And we also have two future Hall of Fame ace types on the comeback trail, making their minor league rehab appearances or wrapping them up. Even Max Scherzer appears to be very close to his return. He may be about to make the same leap that Cole did. And then Kershaw is just starting his rehab journey. So he's a little further away, but assuming that proceeds without setbacks, he'll be back sometime this summer, potentially ahead of schedule, maybe by the break or around the break. We'll see. Of those two, which are you most looking forward to having be back in the fold of active pitchers?

Scherzer and Kershaw, who have very comparable careers in some respects, very comparable career wars, at least. Which one are you happiest that we're about to be graced with their presence again? It's hard for me to disentangle my feeling of excitement that these guys are coming back from the amount of anxiety I feel about what their performance is actually going to look like. And I think in that respect, maybe I'm more excited for Scherzer, just because I feel like that has the better chance of being sort of steady Eddie I don't know if we know exactly what we're gonna get with Kershaw now I know his you know his simulated game his like three inning

simulated game at Dodger Stadium went well and we'll get more of a sense of it as he embarks on this rehab stint but i feel trepidation around kershaw i'm glad we get another chance with kershaw because if his career either as a dodger or just generally had concluded after that disastrous postseason start last year i would have been unhappy with that uh because that was i mean like it was in some ways thrilling because it was like look at these diamondbacks i think we're gonna cover some postseason baseball in arizona and then sometimes it was like oh god so um i'm glad we get another go around with him but i i do feel a little nervous about what it's going to look like now there have been times in Kershaw's career where I have felt similar trepidation, and then he's gone out there and pitched great.

So, you know, could be that I'm just an anxious person, Ben, and this is what it's deciding to land on today. I'm not confident that I know that for sure. I'm not confident that I know that for sure. Yeah, I think I'm with you there. I am more eager to see Kershaw just because I feel like there's maybe more uncertainty about what he is now. And I don't know if the upside is higher than with Scherzer. Like Scherzer, we've seen him be kind of compromised and he's had back issues. Kershaw himself has had back issues. But this is the first time that Kershaw is coming back from something like this.

He's never had a surgery before, right? He's never had a serious arm or shoulder issue. And it wasn't clear that he even would come back from this. And so the fact that he's nearing a return, that's heartening. Maybe it's because we just read a book about him. And so we're both kind of in his head a little more than we are with Scherzer. And I don't know, it's not like Kershaw has more to prove exactly. There's just this kind of ongoing playoff Kershaw kind of thing that will just be a saga as long as there is Kershaw that's

just not going to go away. It's funny, like they really have had such similar careers, but Kershaw is probably, his legend probably burns brighter, I guess, just because his peak was even higher, right? I mean, these are two all-time greats and along with Verlander, the best pitchers of their era. But Kershaw was the one who at his best drew more comparisons to this might be the best pitcher of all time or this guy's up there with anyone else. They've both won three Cy Young Awards, as I said, comparable career awards. Kershaw has the MVP. Schroeder doesn't have. And they overlapped perfectly.

They both were rookies the same year, right? So, so many commonalities with these guys. at an even higher level for a more sustained stretch and has managed to keep that performance up more so than I think I expected, certainly, even as he's been less available and less overpowering just in terms of pure run prevention. He has remained, if anything, probably better than Scherzer, at least like last year before Kershaw completely lost it injury-wise. So yeah, it does feel like there's maybe just more intrigue surrounding Kershaw's return because there's more uncertainty.

And yeah, maybe it's sort of a higher ceiling, lower floor kind of thing that makes you nervous, but also excited. And I guess the Dodgers are very much in playoff position, whereas the Rangers not doing so hot. And so you do kind of hope that Scherzer's return and other returns will make them more competitive and will help them have a second half run. So that could lead to an interesting story, but given where they are respectively right now, you're looking at Kershaw as a potential postseason starter again. And Scherzer, you're not so sure. Yeah. Do I hope that they go on a run?

Well, as a Mariners fan, maybe. hat and my fan hat are fighting you know how hats fight each other it's just better for everyone if we see better baseball and so in that respect i hope that scherzer comes back and pitches well and um helps to stabilize that rotation so it's so weird to say this about that rangers team but it's like they should score some runs maybe it's so funny because you're right when you lay out the their respective resumes what is there to really worry about when it comes to Kershaw's legacy? I don't think that it's really that contested, but it feels more contested to me. And I don't know if that is quite right or quite fair, but it does feel that way to me. like for him to be you know to come back and pitch well and look good and for them to have a good deep satisfying playoff run you know i don't know that i need them to win a world series but it would be

nice for kershaw to win a world series in a year with a full schedule because i do think that there are people who still kind of look askance at 2020, even though I want to be clear, I am not among those casting side-eye at 2020. I mean, that's not true. I have a lot to say about 2020, much of it involving side-eye, but none of it involving the legitimacy of that World Series.

And Scherzer's also got two rings, including one he won last year. So there's a little less pressure for him to get another one than for Kershaw to. Last year. Wild. Yeah. Well, I'll be happy to have both of those guys back and also Cole, because just the

decimation of starting pitching that was the big storyline early this season and has kind of continued. It's nice to get some reinforcements, especially when they're main characters like those guys. But I think that is because you almost have higher expectations or standards for Kershaw because he was such an all-timer because he was someone people talked about and compared to the greats of the past. Whereas Scherzer is obviously a great, but because of the Koufax links with Kershaw and

everything else, like you just have heard so many more comparisons at Kershaw versus Pedro and Kershaw versus Maddox and Clemens and Johnson, et cetera. And you don't hear that so much about Scherzer. It's not that anyone disputes that he is a great pitcher and a hall of famer, but just a little less romance surrounding him. I don't know if it's because he's just so intense. They both have characters who stand out, like Scherzer's the bulldog, and he's going to slit your throat out there on the mound, and he's stalking around, and his eyes are two different colors and everything. Kershaw, equally intense as we learned and reaffirmed in Andy McCullough's book. It's not like he's any less intense than

Scherzer, at least on the days that he's starting, but it's maybe a little less visible, his intensity, you know? Like, Scherzer just looks like he's going to throttle you. Kershaw, you can't talk to him on his start days unless, you know, you want to take your life in your hands. But on the mound, maybe he's a little less, like, obviously amped up, even though inside he clearly feels that same sort of intensity. But yeah, there's an aspect to Kershaw that I think leads to every failing, every flaw being under the microscope in a way that maybe Scherzer's isn't quite to the same extent. Yeah, I think that that's right. It's not like Scherzer's like an all-time great postseason pitcher, but he hasn't had the notable

failures that Kershaw has. Scherzer has a 3.78 career ERA in the postseason and 3.15 in the regular season. So he hasn't been quite as good in the postseason. Not that you would expect anyone to be as good in the postseason. It's a higher level of competition, right? But he hasn't had that clear, oh, choker, unclutch kind of narrative associated with him the way that Kershaw has. So he hasn't had that to prove or that reputation to overcome either. You know, multiple rings just papers over a lot of that.

Like, you know, you just don't think about it in the same way, even though, like, he wasn't particularly astounding last year in the postseason, to your point, but they won the World Series, so nobody remembers that. Yeah, both of these guys, they've gotten into the advanced age portion of their career. It's like you try to sort of nurse them through the regular season, and they get to October, and they're kind of gassed or banged up, each of them by that point. And so it's hard to know if you can count on them.

Maybe, almost counterintuitively, the fact that they're coming back mid-season this year, maybe that makes them fresher. Who knows? If they don't suffer some kind of catastrophic injury between now and then, maybe they'll be a little less worn down by then. But then again, who knows?

Because they won't be as built up. And maybe that takes a toll. Right. You kind of like to see both of them succeed. We like great players to be great. Yes. Yes, we do. Speaking of that, a couple of great players who've been great lately.

Carlos Correa has been just on an absolute heater. Heater. Yeah. And he, just in the span of like a couple of weeks or less, has changed my perception of his season and like his whole career, which is probably an overreaction and recency bias because look, 10 games or eight games or wherever we draw the line, that can only change your evaluation and outlook for a player so much. But he has changed his stats so much over that span of time because he has just been on such a tear that it looks completely different now if you look at his stats. Like over his last, let's say, eight games as we record here on Monday afternoon, he's hit.556,.590,.833. That is a .305 WRC+. Now, in a sense, this is spoiled for me by how hot Aaron Judge has been, which we talked about last week. And I noted that over a 36-game span for Judge, he had a 301 WRC+. So he was basically just as hot as Correa, but over four times as long.

So it's hard to impress me. Sorry to Twins fans who are sick of hearing about the Yankees instead of the Twins. Oh, yeah, this Twin has been good, but have you seen this Yankee? Yeah, I know. But it is hard when someone has been on that tour industry for way longer. It's like, okay, well, you're not Aaron Judge. But he has been Judge-ian over this eight-game span. Or if we want to go 11 games instead of eight, he's hit 511, 538, 787 over that span, 271 WRC+. that span 271 WRC plus. And because he's been so hot, I guess it's, it's a little bit different. It's a different shape of production than judge had during his hot streak. Cause even if they arrived at similar WRC pluses, Cray is, is more batting average driven. And so he has changed his batting average from like he was batting 247 or something and now he's up over 300 and just to

to hit more than 500 over a span yeah that's that's impressive even if it doesn't come with as much power judge was hitting a mere like 400 or so over his hot streak but was slugging much higher and just hitting more home runs whereas correarea's is a little more BABIP driven. Right. But he's changed from, oh, he's having a below average season after the disappointing season he had last year and on all the concerns about his physicals and the teams that decided actually they didn't want to go ahead and sign Carlos Correa for the terms that they'd initially proposed to now he's having offensively at least a pretty vintage Carlos Correa for the terms that they'd initially proposed to now, he's having

offensively, at least, a pretty vintage Carlos Correa season. And suddenly I'm looking at that and I'm like, he hasn't turned 30 yet somehow. Carlos Correa is still 29 years old. It seems like he's been around forever. I mean, he has. He's been around since he was 20. But here he is with a 147 WRC plus, well above his career average. And suddenly I'm feeling like he's found the fountain of youth, even though he never really lost the youth because he's not old actually. But if he keeps hitting like this, even if his defense isn't what it was, and even if he's sort of a par to subpar base runner. Well, if he can stick at shortstop for even a couple more seasons,

suddenly he's back on a Hall of Fame type trajectory. Right. And, you know, I think that this happens with a lot of guys who debuted as young as he did and then went through the 2020 season where we end up in this weird time warp with their careers. We're like, how long have you been around again? Like, what age are you? Almost like Lindor, who's 30 himself, broke in the same year Correa did his career particularly of late has been marked by

some extended absences uh due to injury where he's had these you know years where he hasn't quite been able to be fully healthy I guess he he only played 109 games in 2017 too but you know I think when you add up the age at which he debuted, the fact that he was around for 2020, the time missed to injury, you know, the astros of it all. It's just a kind of muddy picture when it comes to your understanding of who this guy is really, right? Like, what is his true talent level of production? You know, if you're a Twins fan, you have to be thrilled. You know, we'll need to see him sustain it for the entire season, obviously. But this looks like a return to form that I wasn't fully convinced was in there.

Now, I could point out that he has a 351 BABIP. Yes. You know, there's all kinds of stuff. But, like, he looks healthy. You know, he looks like his old self in in a way that i i would find incredibly encouraging if i were a twins fan and you know they're gonna they're gonna need him because they have these you know they're looking up at the royals and the guardians so you know they're gonna need him to be all that he can be for them to to make a run at that division which i still think

you know is winnable, even though, you know, I don't think that the Guardians and Royals are completely pretend or anything like that. But I think the Twins can still give them a run for their money. Speaking of another shortstop who is quite young and impresses us on a regular basis, though also sometimes is perplexing. Elie de la Cruz had one of his signature plays where he scores and you don't even realize it's a scoring opportunity until he touches some plate. And I was thinking, is there anything more impressive than that? Of course, it's impressive when someone, sometimes Elie de la Cruz, hits a ball a mile

or does something super powerful. But I don't know that there's anything more exciting or surprising or impressive than a player scoring on something that you just don't think of as an opportunity to score. You score from second on a sack fly or whatever. It's always like, he scored from first or second on X, right? Not a hit, just something else. In this case, Ellie was on second and there was a wayward pickoff attempt. So obviously the threat that he's going to go makes the defense antsy

and leads to more pickoff attempts and more potential opportunities to screw up. And the pitcher did sort of screw up and whirl around and throw the ball into Ellie more or less, or just into a part of the second base area where the catch could not be made because Ellie was kind of in the way. And so the ball scoots into center and Blake Perkins, who is playing center for the Brewers,

he didn't lollygag or anything, but didn't seem to me to be sprinting at full speed to come in after that ball because a, you know, he's probably slightly taken by surprise that the ball got through to him. And then he's thinking, well, guy's on second, you know, like he's not going to score on this play and he's got a pretty strong arm and he came up and he made a decent throw and Ellie scored. Like he just never slowed down. He never stopped. He was just going the whole way. And it's just, it totally changes the possibility space of that play where I'm watching and thinking, oh, ball got away. He's going to get his base. Nope.

He's going to get multiple bases and he's going to score. And that kind of thing, it almost just breaks your brain in a way that just a Titanic tater doesn't. You know, we're used to those power displays, but the speed displays, those are the kinds of things that you hear legends, you know, Ty Cobb scored on this of moments on a baseball broadcast is when you actually like miss the beginning of the cool play because it's so strange and unexpected that the camera isn't trained to kind of look for it that the broadcast booth is like nothing's going to happen over there. We don't need to shade a camera this way. And then you have to like catch it on replay later. and over there we don't need to shade a camera this way and then you have to like catch it on replay later um yeah like if i i can't uh he would live rent free and in my head if i were a defender because he's definitely one of those guys who's just skilled enough and fast enough where if i were since he in my weird gamer uniforms i'd be like you gotta you know like let's make him make a play because a lot of the time you're going to beat it out.

Yeah. If we were ranking the plays, the possible plays from most to least exciting, which would be a big endeavor. And we've probably done similar things. There are so many kinds. There are a lot of plays. Yeah. Yeah. There's a lot of different kinds of plays, Ben.

But that genre, I really, I think those would be at the top because people like that. It's not just that you like to see a close play and you like to see someone running at top speed, but it's the element of surprise that really, really gets you there where you just think it's a routine. I'll just advance my measly little base. And then suddenly, nope. And you can see that the defending team is taken unawares too. And they're like, oh crap, like he's going for it. You know, and you could like the crowd's enthusiasm

builds as you realize, oh, no stop sign or he's running through the stop sign. He's going for it. Those are just, I think maybe the best baseball place. And Ellie gives us a lot of them. Yeah. I mean, right in the center of many of them. Yeah.

Yep. All right. Couple follow-ups. One, last time we talked about a hypothetical that was proposed by listeners Eli and Christina about a player who only hits grand slams. So he hits a grand slam every time he comes up with the bases loaded, if he's allowed to, but he cannot do anything else. Product, doesn't get a hit in any other scenario. And the question was, is this guy useful? Is he rosterable? How valuable is he?

And I suggested that I thought he would be pretty valuable because there are maybe as many as a couple hundred bases loaded opportunities for a given team in a typical season. And if anything, I think I underrated how valuable that was. My pal and colleague at The Ringer and listeners at Cram noted that the average win probability added on Grand Slams last year was 0.2.

So 20% of a win, fifth of a win. So if a guy hits 10 of those, his WPA would be two for the season, like two full wins added, which would make him a top 30-ish hitter. And this guy, in theory, would have many more than 10 opportunities. However, as you noted, he would just be walked at least. And Zach said the average WPA on a basis loaded walk was 0.092. So he'd only need about 20 of those to reach that same two win probability added threshold. So yeah, I think

he would be valuable. But one wrinkle we overlooked and were informed by a few listeners who pointed this out. There is a remedy and a recourse that would be even more effective than walking the guy with the bases loaded. As a Wilson Patreon supporter and Aaron and Craig wrote in to say, you could balk, not walk. Sure. Balk instead of walk. And then a run still scores. Yeah. Right? The guy on third comes in, people advance.

However, the bases are no longer loaded. And so the guy will then make an automatic out, presumably, right? So still run scoring, still positive value, but he's still going to be an automatic out as opposed to an additional base runner. So that does, yeah, that saps his value somewhat, but you know, to get the guaranteed run, you're still, I think, going to want to carry that guy. There are times when that would be valuable regardless of whether he

immediately makes an out. It's interesting because I think the proactive box strategy, I hate saying that word. Yeah, it's really, yeah, it's tough. Why did we do that? You know, that was a mistake. Bach is a mistake. That's a collective L that we all, why are we- The definition is even more confounding than the pronunciation, but just articulating it, because as I've said, you always feel, I always feel the need to like over enunciate balk, like balk. It's just, it's so unsatisfying. It's unsatisfying. It's a bad word.

It's a bad, it has terrible mouth feel. Yeah, I balk at saying balk. Stupid. two to this strategy would be that i think you have a lot more cover as the manager uh in terms of your your sort of approach to getting this guy uh to not be in position to hit a grand slam because one of the things we talked about last time is that like if you're the manager calling for an intentional walk in a basis loaded situation. Like you really need other people to understand that this is a skill, right? This is a repeatable, real phenomena with this guy where he just, he, he can't do anything else, but he can hit a grand slam every time count it. And if you,

in addition to securing an out, you have some plausible deniability because the only person you have to convince that it's real is the pitcher, right? You just go to your guy and you're like, look, I know this. I know how it sounds. I know how it sounds. But I just need you to do me this solid. feels unfair is that i think we look at intentional walks and those aren't especially as they are constituted now i think we we look at that as not a failing on the pitcher's part it's so removed right you don't have to throw the pitches the guy just holds up four and then he takes his base and you the pitcher stand there go but no one at home is going that's like guy's fault but if if he has to intentionally mouth terrible word then i think it is a little unfair to the poor guy who has to do it whereas like have the courage of your convictions but i think that the guy would understand you know the trade-off is i get an out in this scenario and i'm not just putting another guy on. So maybe it would all kind of come out in the wash. Puts the onus on the pitcher a little more

unless the manager comes out and says that that bach was ordered from the bench. I called it. It was like, what would the gesture be? Please make a bunch of gestures that no one, including me, can see. You know, like what a fun time we're having. Yeah, you'd have to,

I guess it depends on which kind of Bach you do. Which one would you do if you were doing it intentionally? I'm trying to remember because occasionally you get the strategic Bach, which I kind of like. The whole subject of Baching mystifies me and no one can agree on what a Bach is. There's so many different ways to Bach and people think they see a Bach and other people don't and everyone's super confident about their interpretation. But you see sometimes strategic Bachs where kenley jansen or someone like that a closer let's say will bach a runner from second to third because they they don't want to have their signs stolen they don't uh want signals to be passed and and that run maybe doesn't matter or the

position of that runner doesn't matter and so they'll just balk the guy over by choice. We had one of those this very weekend, Ben. We had one of those this very weekend because Diego Veyer was tipping pitches. And so Tori Lavella went out and called time and headed out there. And he said, balk him because Martín Maldonado had it figured out. And so they balked him over to third so that he couldn't relay signs to the hitter. It happened this very weekend, Ben, this very weekend. And what kind of balk did he do?

How did he balk? Do you recall? I just heard about it after the fact. I would have to go and look at the – oh, I think he dropped the ball. Okay, yeah. I was going to say. Yeah, because you could do something. He came set and he dropped the ball.

Yeah. Right. So you wouldn't want to like go into your motion and do that whole thing and step off or whatever. I guess you could, yeah, just sort of spiking the ball. Maybe that would be the motion for the intentional puck. Oh, yeah, maybe. Just like, you know, just throw an invisible ball at the ground basically. Yeah.

Yeah. Anyway, this very weekend, Ben. Yeah. So, this would be another application for the intentional box. Another listener, Sydney wrote in and crunched the numbers on that and said, if you go with the intentional box strategy, then going by a 2022 run expectancy chart, Dominic, the grand slam guy is just barely a plus with zero outs or one out, but quite good with two outs because with no outs, it's not so great to get that run in

in exchange for an out. But with two, your run expectancy is lower, so it's more valuable. So Sidney said the average team in 2022 had 48 games with a bases loaded two out situation. So if our guy batted in each of those opportunities, he'd be worth approximately 11.2 runs in those 48 plate appearances over letting a league average bat swing away. On run value alone, this is pretty good, but some of these plate appearances would come at the cost of removing a starter and substituting for Dominic when his turn in the lineup came back around. Of course, some of those situations are going to be pretty high leverage, so you'd get some good win expectancy boosts. And also, I started talking about David Fletcher as a future knuckleballer almost jokingly because he pitched like in a garbage time, you know, mop up role earlier this year.

And we saw clips and he was effective and it was like, oh, wow, that actually seems to be a pretty good knuckleball. And he's not hitting. So maybe he could just be a knuckleballer. Well, he is now. He is a knuckleballer. Like he is just a fulltime starter at this point. I don't know if people have noticed this, but he May 29th, he's played six games just as a position player, and he has a 374 OPS in those games. So he has continued not to hit, and yet the pitching has gone okay. He's gone no fewer than five innings in any start. He has held opposing batters to a sub 700 OPS.

He has a 4.43 ERA. It's not like he's been lights out and, you know, he struck out 10 only in 22 and a third innings and walked six. But, you know, he's a knuckleballer. You wouldn't expect that many strikeouts, really. Like he's doing this. Meanwhile, he's also still being investigated. I was about to say.

Don't worry. I was not going to omit that very relevant fact. But just, you know, to bring this to people's attention, he's legitimately a two-way player at this point. He may not be good at either one of the ways, but he has become a two-way player like he's legitimately this is not just a spot start emergency start mop up innings kind of role like he's actually a two-way player yeah with a hell of a sort of damn please hanging over him yes yeah it is a very weird it is we want to delight in this because we love to delight in knuckleballers but also i am very nervous to delight in it because who knows what we're gonna find out as a result of this investigation i am surprised that he's just not been placed on administrative leave but maybe

when you're in the minors the procedure around that is a little bit different yeah or i guess like otani was being investigated and was still playing right so i suppose that's true yeah maybe they're not unrelated right maybe he's like look i may as well try some stuff like what do i have to lose the thing that's going to determine the length of my career might not be this knuckleball at all but just in case yeah right i don't want to and i like i should be a little less cavalier about this because obviously i don't know what the results of their investigation will be but yeah things don't seem it's been reported that he did not bet on baseball but we we don't know yet right like and at the very least it seemed like he was involved with the bookmaker

that epay was involved in may even have introduced Ipe to him, made that fateful connection. But if it's only found that he was betting illegally on other sports, that might just be a slap on the wrist, right? Because that has happened before. Jared Kosart was only fined for doing that back in 2015. So if you're not betting on baseball, it's not a guarantee that you're going to be suspended. That's right. That's right. But what if he's cleared or just fined? Maybe we see David Fletcher, like in the big leagues at some point, as a knuckleballer or a two-way player. Maybe.

It's not even late for him to have a second act of his career. He just turned 30 last month. Right. But, I mean, the Braves, they've had injuries, obviously. Hurston Waldrop, top prospect, they called him up. He gets rocked in two starts and they were going to option him anyway. And then he was like, oh, actually, I'm hurt, which I'm not doubting that he is, but gets to go on the big league IL, I guess, instead of being optioned. And they'll be okay. Like, they have five starters as it is anyway. And they just called up Dazebell Hernandez, I think to replace Waldrop. But just saying like, you know, if Fletcher is, is cleared or at least is not suspended and he keeps this up, like it's not impossible that

this might become a reality. Take Fletcher as either a knuckleballer or a two-way player, like kind of a, a fringy two-way player, more of a Brooks Kieschnick than an Otani, certainly, but much, much closer to Brooks Kieschnick than Otani. Just to clarify, I'm not making an Otani comp here. It would be hilarious if there were some sort of strange mystical alchemy that comes together and it's like, actually, now he's just Otani. He is or was good friends with Otani. So, yeah, but this could happen. Like, I'm getting my hopes up that A, I can root for David Fletcher and B, that if he is someone I

can root for, that this happens. Yeah. I mean, I hope that both of those things happen also, because I don't want to have even more gambling nonsense. And knuckleballs are fun. We like a knuckleball. We enjoy a good knuckleball. So that would be great. Yeah. Yeah. And we didn't get to talk about the most recent gambling controversy last time because the news broke after we recorded, though I did mention it in the outro. But yes, Mr. Perfect, the perfect dump, Pat Hoberg, feet of clay, I suppose, in that he's being disciplined. And it's still, I'm almost surprised that nothing substantive has leaked here. I mean, I guess it's good. It's supposed to be. They're sure trying, though, you can tell.

Yes. It's supposed to be confidential until're sure trying though, you can tell. Yes. It's supposed to be confidential until news comes out, until something's decided here. And that has been the case. I'm sure plenty of people are digging, but all we know is that he's been disciplined and he's appealing that discipline and that it has something to do with sports betting. And according to MLB, the sports betting didn't affect any games that he worked, that same language that we saw with Tukapita, Marcano, and all those other players who were suspended. But we have yet to learn what the infraction was here and what the grounds for his defense is. I would hope, obviously, that there's no betting on baseball involved here,

because that would be an enormous scandal, right? Yes. Especially if it's in games that he was involved in. I mean, then we're talking lifetime ban, but we're also talking just a big black eye for baseball. Catastrophic. Catastrophic. Now, if it turns out to be, well, look, if he is suspended for betting on games that he wasn't involved in, that's still really bad. That's not a lifetime suspension. It's a one-year automatic suspension. But for an ump, that's even harder to—I don't know if that's harder to come back from reputationally than for a player, but it might be. thought on the pod before and if i have not let's all give me credit for it because it's consistent with the rest of my perspective on this i think that it's um it's the single biggest point of

potential like catastrophic failure for the sport for it to involve an umpire it would be appropriate and i don't know the ins and outs of the relationship between the umpires union and the league on this question. So I might be asking for something that they're not able to do under their current CBA. But I think that if you're an umpire who bets on baseball, I think even if you're not in the game, you've got to be done. I think it just, you can't have someone who is behind home plate at least, you know, once a series basically, and is able to do the thing at least, you know, once a series, basically, and is able to do the thing that has, you know,

such a significant impact on the direction of a game and would be, I think, the hardest to reliably detect and police, right? You can't have someone with that black eye on the fields officiating a game. You just can't. And if we want to make this distinction between betting on other sports and betting on baseball for players and trainers and front office personnel, I'm not wild about it. We know that I take a pretty conservative line when it comes to this stuff. But like, okay, fine. But for the person whose job it is to

literally call balls and strikes, you can't, you got to be done, I think. I think you just have to be done. Yeah. And the other thing is that even though MLB has this language about, you know, games were affected or compromised or whatever, and that may very well be the case, you would never really know whether they had been unless you found a paper trail, a digital paper trail, which you might. You might find evidence that the guy's saying, okay, yeah, I'm going to do this or that. But if you didn't find that, you'd still never be able to rule out that this was swaying the person because an ump has to make so many calls over the course of a given game and they're going to get some of them wrong, even if they're Pat Hoberg, except for that one time. Right. So you'd never know if a particular

pitch there was micro betting going on. And again, I guess, you know, as long as you know that they were betting on the game, you don't have to document that they were trying to affect the outcome. If they were involved in it in any way, then they're done for good. But even if it turns out that he was just placing illegal bets on some other sport, which would be more of a fine situation potentially, or at least it's up to the commissioner, it bar for integrity is even higher for an umpire. Like that's their sole purpose there is to be the officiator who is just uncorruptible, right? And to be the referee. And if you are giving any appearance of just like being in bed with bookmakers, it's just, yeah, it's really bad. You know, it's just really bad look. So I don't know if it's like lifetime ban

if you're betting on other sports illegally. If it is, I think you should change that in the rules, at least rather than kind of impose that retroactively on someone. But it is the kind of thing where you'd just even more so than a player probably want to avoid any appearance of impropriety as the phrase goes. So, like, I just – and then you'd worry, like, if you're crossing over that line, even if it's technically allowed, even if you're betting, you know, legal sportsbook on other sports, which is not against the rules or anything. But, gosh, as an umpire, I would just want to avoid any hint of suspicion.

So much of their job is reliant on their judgment. Just so much of it. There are instances where their discretion literally dictates the interpretation and enforcement of particular rules. Their entire interpretation of the strike zone when they're the home plate ump is judgment you just can't like it it it's compromising in a way that i think is even more damaging to to the game than players particularly because you know so much of the really big money that is going to be made in this space over the next couple of years is going to be on parlay bets and these micro betting transactions. And the league wants that stuff to be active. They want it to be incredibly sticky in a way that I find gross. And this is one of the few places where like you could say that an individual,

an individual person on the field could affect how those bets go one way or the other. Like there are other instances of that being true, but like you kind of, for a lot of these bets, like you need other people to kind of do some stuff, you know, not necessarily in cahoots, right? Like I'm not saying that every time it requires a conspiracy but it's hard as a an individual player to like say you're gonna meaningfully affect the you know the over under or what you know whatever betting stuff people do but you can bet balls and strikes you can just bet them. And don't do that, but you can. And so the person who makes that call, even though they're not making it every day, because it's not like the same guys behind home plate for an entire series, but you just can't have that person anywhere near baseball.

So I will be very curious to see sort of what the particulars of the accusation are and, you know, whatever other information we get about them because, you know, in some ways, the fact that Hoberg has been such a precise umpire, like, is that going to help him or hurt him in this scenario? Because if he has, like, a couple of big missed calls, are those going to garner, you know, additional suspicion? Because the rest of the time he's so on point with balls and strikes. Like, I don't know. Or is he going to be able to say like, look at these pristine zones, like over the course of a season, they're all so good.

Like I couldn't have been throwing games. Like look at my beautiful, perfect zone. Did you end up buying a jersey? I hope not. No. Are you okay, Ben ben were you very disappointed this is one of those times where um i saw the the news break and i did immediately think of you it's funny that two of your two of your guys what's that about ben what is that about the two of your dudes have been like gambling adjacent this season. Suspicious, Ben. That's suspicious.

I know. What does this say about me? What does it say about you? I'm just immersed in the seedy baseball betting underworld here. No one could be less immersed in that world than me. Otani completely cleared. Who knows? Maybe Pat Hoberg's a good name will be cleared at some point, too. And David Fletcher, who I'm now more of a fan of than I was in the past, though. I've also enjoyed his play at times. Anyway, we will have, I'm sure, much more on Pat Hoberg when the exact nature of what happened or didn't happen here comes out, which seems inevitable. I just have a quick NPB update for you before we end. Were you aware,

I was not until recently, that NPB is having its own dead ball issue this season? No, I was not. Not for the first time. So, NPB had a dead ball scandal some years ago, or, you know, they had all sorts of ball changes that were made in secret, and the commissioner lost his job over this. And it turned out that seemingly the commissioner may not even have known about the ball change and that this may have been kind of a conspiracy to oust the commissioner. It's really a lot of intrigue surrounding NPB ball issues. But now NPB is having another similar issue where 38% of the home runs have disappeared. I guess that's one way to put it. There are 38% fewer home runs being hit,

home runs on balls in play. It's pretty consistent across both the Pacific and Central Leagues, but this is relative to, say, 2021 through 2023. There's just been a lot fewer homers this year, less scoring, less offense. Everyone is wondering why we're used to this script. But I was reading Jim Allen, the NPB journalist, and his coverage of this. And he was talking to someone who has heard the explanations from both Nippon Professional Baseball and the baseball's manufacturer, Mizuno. So to be clear, this is not the same baseball manufacturer. This is not Rawlings that MLB has a stake in and that makes the official MLB ball. This is Mizuno. According to this analyst, Alan writes, both NPB and Mizuno have said that no intentional changes were made to the baseballs

produced for use this season, but that they are definitely not flying as well as in past years. The best hit balls are traveling about three meters less than in recent years, this source said. They are looking for the cause, but have yet to identify it. The most likely suspect is the yarn used to stitch the ball covers together. The stitching is becoming easily frayed, this source says. And Alan says, my best guess is that a supplier to a factory making baseballs delivered inferior yarn that was not up to spec and no one noticed. And he also

adds that there's word going around that maybe they've begun introducing new balls that should conform to expectations. So we'll see if there's a mid-season change, but just bringing everyone up to speed here that the issues with the consistency or lack thereof of the official baseball, not unique to MLB. So I don't know if that makes it more or less understandable, but this seems to be across multiple continents and high-level leagues. It seems to be something that the leagues cannot quite get a handle on. What a weird thing. be something that the leagues cannot quite get a handle on.

What a weird thing. You know, Ben, like my primary reaction upon hearing all of that is what a strange thing that we have such trouble with this. Doesn't it seem very weird to you? Yeah, it does. It's not a new technology, the baseball. In fact, that's arguably part of the problem is that it's not still hand stitched and everything. Arguably part of the problem is that it's not entertained. Still hand-stitched and everything.

Yeah. And I have said and do believe that I think a lot of it is just our hyper-awareness of this. Sure. And the stats that we dig into now and the data that we have on how the ball flies and expectations, we're much more sensitive to these sensitivities than we used to be. Yes, I think that's right. to these sensitivities than we used to be. And I don't think we can kind of, you know, that Pandora's box is just open and we're always going to be hyper scrutinizing this stuff. And MLB has brought that on itself to some extent by being so cagey and not being able to ensure consistent conditions.

But yeah, it's not just MLB. So that's something. And PP is having some of the same issues here. Yeah. mlb so that's something and pp is having some of the same issues here yeah and i think that you know it's it's hard to put the uh toothpaste back in the tube for either of these leagues at this point but i imagine that there are a lot of unreasonable people in the world you know i imagine that like it's a thing i'm open to as a piece of reality um but i think that it just goes to show the missed opportunity that all of these

leagues have had in terms of just like embracing candor right rather than being defensive and um adopting a posture of like denialism for some of this stuff it's a hand stitched thing and it's dependent on a bunch of different little weird fluky things like the yarn being good right like and of course it's dependent on the yard and being good but you know the the difference in a couple feet of you know fly ball distance isn't something you're necessarily going to be able to discern holding one ball in your hand versus another that's you know juicy or not juicy i mean if the balls themselves are literally juicy you probably would notice that but there was to discern holding one ball in your hand versus another that's, you know, juicy or not juicy. I mean, if the balls themselves are literally juicy, you probably would notice that.

There was a window of time where Manfred could have come to baseball fans and said, hey, look, we know that there's an unpredictability to this that is frustrating. It's frustrating for our fans. It's frustrating for our players and teams. You know, here are the realities of manufacturing these balls. We're doing everything we can. Here's what we would like to see in terms of the, you know, the liveliness or lack thereof of the ball. And we just would ask for your patience as we sort through that process. And there would still be people annoyed by it. And I would still find it kind of flummoxing, but like it would have been honest, right? NPB, there's just been a scandal around this stuff so people are going to be skeptical

even if it's completely innocent benign reasons that stuff has gone kind of wonky on them this year so you know this is why honesty is the best policy because it it helps you to earn the the sort of goodwill to sort through problems that might seem simple on their surface but are more complicated in practice and you know stuff can be hard even when it seems straightforward and i think that if we had just been treated like adults that people would have been sympathetic to that. But instead, we were told that nothing was wrong. And so it feels like there's a conspiracy cahoots every time we're like around this stuff. Yeah. Conspiracy cahoots.

That's funny. If you're in a conspiracy, you're in cahoots. You know, you don't need to say conspiracy cahoots, Meg. Probably not. And my second and final NPB update is that I've been following Roki Sasaki's season closely, not for the first time, but it's expected. Chelsea Janes wrote something for Washington Post last month about how teams are planning, MLB teams are planning for him to be posted this offseason. That's not confirmed, but there are certainly lots of rumors flying about that, as they did last offseason. That's not confirmed, but there are certainly lots of rumors flying about that as they did last offseason. And so I've been watching him even more closely, and he has pitched well, as usual. He has a 1.96 ERA, 2.41 RA9. Now, he has not been quite at his previous level. Like, last year, he was just otherworldly. He had a 1.78 ERA and a 1.88 RA9, and he was striking out 13 per nine and walking fewer than two. Whereas this year,

his strikeout to walk ratio is like four instead of eight. And as I just noted, less offense in NPB this year. And so once you adjust for that, the league OPS is down like 30 points from last year. In the Pacific League, the OPS this year is 638. That's the average 3.25 runs per game scored. So keep that in mind when you're looking at those what seem to be sterling stats. The thing about Sasaki is he's never really been durable and the Marines, his team, have always handled him with care because he's so young. He's still just 22. And I read this also courtesy of Jim Allen. Sasaki deactivated again. The Lotte Marines announced Thursday that pitcher Roki Sasaki has been deactivated due to the poor condition of his right arm after his start against the Hiroshima Carp on June 8th. It's Sasaki's

second deactivation this season. He was dropped after he failed to recover from upper body fatigue following his May 24th start against SoftBank. So he seems to be having some issues recovering from starts recently. And that is kind of concerning, I would say. And, you know, we started talking about a Japanese pitcher who cashed in. I guess we started with City Connects, but then we moved to a Japanese pitcher who cashed in. I put you up to it. It's true. So we're ending with that too. Under normal circumstances, if he were healthy,

if there were no concerns, then Sasaki, given his age, I said how young Yamamoto is compared to previous NPB pitchers have come over. Well, Sasaki makes Yamamoto look old. So he would be poised to just make a major contract killing this winter. But if teams are concerned, and I saw another tweet from Jim

that said he just doesn't seem to be maturing physically as quickly as you'd like. So again, he's young, but he threw 91 innings last year, 129 and a third the year before. That's his high. And a lot of that is just that they have given him a lot of time and they haven't worked him too hard. But also, he's just not a very just you know we'll take the ball and pitch constantly right kind of guy thus far so i don't know if it's just fatigue and they have to give him a

little extra time then i'm sure teams will still be absolutely lining up even if he had tommy john surgery or something like teams would still be lining up yeah now he might not opt to be posted if he's coming off surgery i don't know but that might affect both his availability and also the expectations for contract contract length etc if this sort of spottiness continues the most likely outcome to my mind is that it simply delays his posting right until he can more definitively demonstrate durability and that the velocity is holding and that sort of thing. But it's a little unnerving, you know? Ah, pitchers. When are they not unnerving? That'll do it for today. Thanks as always for listening. You can support Effectively Wild on

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