Effectively Wild: A FanGraphs Baseball Podcast - Effectively Wild Episode 369: Clearing the Listener Email Backlog

Episode Date: January 22, 2014

Ben and Sam discuss Bobby Abreu, then answer listener emails about pushing PEDs, the best Barry Bonds stats, walk-up music, players becoming GMs, and more.

Good morning and welcome to episode 369 of Effectively Wild, If I couldn't tell the truth We're going to do a supplementary listener email show, as we mentioned was a possibility last week because we got so many good emails. And if we don't answer them now, they will just disappear into our inboxes. So before we start on emails, I wanted to ask you about Bobby Brayu. I wanted to ask you about Bobby Abreu. And basically my question is how good a player has to be in a winter league to pique your interest? So presumably if someone had said to you at the beginning of this winter, would you like to sign Bobby Abreu to a minor league deal? You probably would have declined, I imagine.

For a minor league deal? Yeah, he earns $800,000 if he breaks camp with the club. Am I an AL team? No, I guess you're not. You're the Phillies. Yeah, you're in the Phillies situation. Okay. So you... Do I, wait, wait, wait.

If I'm the Phillies, is it possible that I'm actually operating under the presumption that I am an AL team? That's one of the many things I'm wrong about all the time? That is possible, yes. Okay. If only there was some way to tell. So Brea will be 40 by opening day. He did not play last season. He did not play much or well in his last season,

or really his last two seasons he wasn't much of a player. So I imagine you would have said, eh. I mean, you can hand wave any minor league deal and say whatever. Yeah, let's, I mean, yeah. But the presumption that there's actually a point to bringing him, that he might become a useful player. Thank you, yes. For the become a useful player thank you yes for the for the purposes of making presumptions yes i would i would hand wave away the presumption okay or not

hand wave you you just said the word hand wave i yeah but you use it in a different way i i just copied it but i copied it in a different way so i need to replace that verb. What did you say? Shake a stick at? What did you? What verb am I trying to repeat? I said hand wave, right? We both said hand wave. You said hand wave in a different context, the ability to hand wave away a minor league contract.

Ah, yes, right. You said have little interest in. Is that? Sure. You're right. I would have little interest in making presum that? Sure. You're right. I would have little interest in making presumptions about Bobby Abreu. Okay. So Bobby Abreu then goes to the Venezuelan Winter League, and he hits.322,.416.

Not good enough. .461. Not even close. In 180 regular season plate appearances, and then the postseason starts, and in 56 playoff at bats he triple slashes 464 549 uh 1.214 i don't even know how to pronounce that uh with eight home runs in those 56 playoff at bats are you interested now nope not not at all wait what was the ones in the postseason uh he hit eight homers and 56 at bats so oh that's better that is better yeah okay eight homers and 56 at bat so uh at that point yeah now i mean he's probably slugging 600 now and overall probably, at least.

Yeah, probably, that's close. You were going to ask me what it would take to be interested in Bobby Abreu, and I would have probably said something like 4.55, 5.20, 7.10. But it is a long season. I mean, you are right. It's almost half of a season's worth of plate appearances at altitude against inconsistent competition. But nonetheless, it is a lot. But I remember the reason I missed your playoffs is because I was frantically Googling to try to find my 2010 Winter League write-ups of Alexi Amorista. What got me hired at Baseball Perspectives, I'm sure.

And Alexi Amorista, you'll recall from being a baseball fan, is the size of an eraser. He's very, very small. He's the smallest man in baseball. And he's a little strong for his size, but he's very very small he's the smallest man in baseball um and you know he's he's a little strong for his size but he's not a particularly strong man um and he hit nine home runs in the venezuelan winter league and they were all pretty early like at some point he was leading the league in home runs um and uh so I'll never forget that. And so in my head, home runs don't count in Venezuela.

What league was it? Bobby Abreu was in Venezuela too? Yes. Yeah. So I don't know. I guess compared to last year's Amaro invites, compared to last year's Amaro invites, is this a higher or lower upside invite than Uniesky Betancourt?

Well, Uniesky plays wherever he goes. I don't know why, for some reason. Yeah, I don't either. I don't know. You get the feeling that uniesky is much more likely to play when you sign him uh than a breyou i would say that it's lower than molder and high but higher than uh brad penny uh-huh okay alexi alexi amarorista had never hit more than five home runs in any season, at any level, goes to Venezuela and hits six homers in his first 150 at-bats. So the moral of the story.

Plus 11 doubles and four triples. Don't get too excited, Phillies fans. No, the moral of the story is buy high on Amorista. Does it change your mind that Ruben Amaro says that he had heard, quote unquote, decent reports on Abreu? Are those from when somebody saw him pre-draft in 1992? Yeah. Those are leftover scouting reports from when the Phillies first acquired him. Yeah. Yeah. are leftover scouting reports from when the phillies first acquired him yeah um yeah he also said the club was looking at all the left-handed bats still out there and he's one of them

that's really high praise that sounds like that i mean that sounds like a joke right doesn't that yeah that sounds like standard joke construction yep it does interesting okay uh yeah all right all right so that anyway bray you that'll be fun though i i'm not worried about his his bat i mean i'm i'm sure he's not one of the 100 worst hitters i'm not sure but i'm sure he's not one of the 60 worst hitters in uh in baseball right now in the major league level but he can't probably not but as a right as a yeah and he was he was arguably the worst defensive corner outfielder in baseball five years ago so that's the problem so i mean what would you have to see out of what what sort of defensive performance would you have to see in venezuela to convince you that he could play

in a corner i would have had to see him play all three outfield spots himself he would have to make that that catch that the gatorade girl made. Yeah. You mean the fake one? Yeah, the fake one. Yeah, right. Well, people were upset that we didn't mention Ruben Amaro as a least beloved candidate yesterday. So this is our substitute for that. Okay.

So that was essentially a listener email. I occasionally listen to us. So I'll move into two actual ones. Okay, this one comes from James. Picture this. A 19 year old Cuban shortstop immigrates to the US and offers his services. He's a switch hitter with plus plus hit, power, run, and arm. He makes smart plays and displays excellent lateral quickness. However, he is left-handed and will only sign with you as a shortstop. Would this player get signed, and how much would you pay for such a player? Mm-hmm.

Well, let's first, before we know how much we'd pay for such a player, because we'll have very, very different answers for just what the baseline is what what would you pay for this player if you were right handed do you think based on the description i mean this is not a real player he's not a real person we don't have the benefit of seeing you know what teams have said about him so just what is your gut is this is like what a 60 million 70 million dollar player yeah okay all right so so he's a 19 year old shortstop who if you were right-handed would be getting uh you know 65 million dollar say six year six year contract um what would you dock him for being left-handed i'd guess i'd guess eight runs a year of defense so So three wins.

Well, I guess over the course of six years, it'd be like four to five wins, depending on whether he needs minor league seasoning. So say maybe four wins. So, you know, dock it $25 million. So I'd still give him four and $35. Okay. I mean, you'd have to – do you think somebody would? Would somebody do this?

Just would anyone be willing to play him at that position? Yeah, we talked about if a player demanded to not travel with the team and to only spend one day, if he were a starting pitcher, to only spend one day a week with the team. And, you know, we talked about how Clemens was sort of special enough that he got that privilege. Can you imagine any scenario where, like, an elite left-handed athlete just didn't, you know, was so egotistical or had whatever motives or priorities in mind and demanded it? And, you know, in that case, do you think a team would actually do it?

If the price was right. Uh-huh. Probably. Think so? I think so. I guess. If the price is right, you'd have... You can't argue with if the price is right. No. It's impossible. Well,

I am saying that there is a price that would be right so yeah i can't think of i can't think of one actually but maybe that's because uh you never see a left-handed player playing the infield. So you can't really imagine it. Who do you think would be the, who is the, who, who of, of everybody in our lifetime, what left handed outfielder do you think would have been the best infielder? Uh, Bobby Abreu? I don't know. And Kiel? Kiel? Based on general athleticism?

Yeah. Yeah, okay. The arm? He's got the Yeah, okay. The arm. He's got the arm. Does have the arm. Okay. All right. I just answered a listener question that hasn't been sent yet, but will be.

We're knocking out all the future hypothetical listener questions tonight. Okay. Knocking out all the future hypothetical listener questions tonight. Okay. Danny asks or says, Bryce Harper was tweeting a while back about picking his walk-up music. I can't remember them all, but I think Moby was one of them. He mentioned something to a follower about one of the songs really pumping him up for the at-bat.

I'd have to believe that most players feel the same way about their walk-up music. Obviously, it's hard to monitor the effects of that, but say it's one of those things generally accepted in baseball and a rule was made that players were allowed to hear the song during the entirety of the at-bat in home games. How would things change? Would hitters be better? Would pitchers benefit? Would the defense worsen because of too many players dancing in the outfit?

Hmm. Would the defense worsen because of too many players dancing in the outfield? So I'm thinking that, I mean, home field advantage has, if I recall correctly, has been pretty consistent over time, right? I mean, it's like that 54% probability of the home team winning. I don't think that has changed dramatically. And walk-up music is a fairly recent addition to the ballpark experience. So if the walk-up music really helped out the home team or the home pitcher warming up music really helped out the home team, then presumably we would see a greater home field advantage today than we used to prior to the walk-up. Ben, the question is who would benefit from music playing during the pitch?

I'm going to say no one. I'm going to say based on the fact that the snippet of music that we do have hasn't produced any appreciable edge, I will say that it would be insignificant that players would just all tune it out. Yeah, I agree. I don't think there would be any effect whatsoever. And, you know, my feeling is that in any movie that takes place in the future and there are

sports being played, the music is, you know is nonstop because that's how the future is. A lot more graphics and a lot more sound and a lot more production. If that's any indication, we are going there. There will be a soundtrack to baseball, a score I should say, to baseball that does not let up at some point. Probably 40 years from now, I would guess. Probably. Most likely, I would say. Well, remember this question and we'll find out. Okay. Jason says, let's say you are a pusher of PEDs.

Jason says, let's say you are a pusher of PEDs. As a control, let's also say that you have access to some new pharmaceutical completely unknown to MLB that effectively masks whatever drugs you deal from the mandatory tests. You are passionate, wily, and dedicated to the craft of selling drugs to professional athletes, and there is big money in it too. A new buyer is a major boost to your deliciously illicit income. And here's the crucial part. You know all about advanced statistics. How might stats play a role in determining which players you target

as potential buyers? Perhaps changes in certain numbers, decrease in performance stats, increase in days in the DL are opportunities to feed on a player's self-doubt. I suppose this could get pretty involved with player character and psychology coming into play. Which stats in particular do you think would be most useful? Start talking. Well, you'd probably want to go after contract year guys, right? That would seem to be a fertile ground.

If there's no risk of getting caught because the testing cannot detect this new pharmaceutical, then conceivably anyone would want to take it who is not morally opposed to PEDs. So I guess you'd somehow have to figure out which players would report you to the authorities for approaching them with this opportunity. But as far as stats, yeah, I don't know. I guess it, it seems like a lot of players take these things or start taking them, or at least say they started taking them to recover from an injury of some sort. Uh, I guess you couldn't go wrong going after injured guys and guys who stand to make a lot of money if they suddenly increase their, their performance. stand to make a lot of money if they suddenly increase their performance.

I would think that you'd want to go after guys who are basically underperforming their FIP and then just let regression work its magic and you get all the credit. Yeah. Okay. It seems like even if you have a good drug, you know, that this guy will be successful, make a lot of money, credit you and not get caught and so be able to keep going. Other players will find out about it and he will be an advertisement for your product and they will all want that fit magic that you're selling and you'll get more clients. Yeah. I would have been inclined to say that you wouldn't have as much luck going after a star player or a player who's overperforming,

but based on what we know about who's been revealed to take these things, it doesn't appear that performing well is much of a disincentive to taking things. I mean, a lot of the people who we know took things were basically at the top of their game when they did that. So, well, let me ask you this um old guy or young guy who's easier to convince because an old guy has less to lose um and has you know has to fight with nature right i mean he knows he's gonna get worse he's hanging on uh for dear life and you know in a lot of ways probably in the short term is the type who can most benefit from this.

But the young guy has 20 years of earning potential and like in any industry, there is sort of a way that your salary compounds as you go. So if you start making money early and you've got those stats under your belt and you've got a particular reputation and you're getting arbitration raises on higher salaries to go with, really frankly, you've got to make the year six before you get any of the real money. All the advantage, the long-term advantage, is to the guy who can improve early. However, again, that guy maybe doesn't want to blow his entire career by getting caught and doesn't want to have that stain and maybe is a little bit more idealistic

and he probably feels invincible already because he's young, and young people are idiots. Yes. I don't think they can do anything. Yeah, that was actually going to be my answer for why I would go after young guys, because they're probably more prone to risk-taking and questionable decision-making. With the same knowledge of human nature, we came to different conclusions. Yeah, so you're saying they feel invincible and therefore they don't think they need anything? He already thinks he's a star. He's never failed yet.

Yeah, I think I'd go after the young guy, assuming he's a guy who hasn't signed a big extension already or gotten some giant bonus he's still waiting for his first contract he's still young enough that his is his testosterone levels are off the charts and his his uh decision making is is not fully developed i go with that guy yeah and that guy the young guy might the young guy might already just want he might just want to do drugs he might just be able to convince him that it's just it's drugs just do them because they're drugs young people with their molly yeah it's crazy do you have a favorite berry buns tractoidoid that you just can say on command? Well, I do have a favorite one.

Okay, because it is a listener email. Yeah, John wants to know when we were talking about Bonds recently prompted him to ask, what's the most impressive slash insane Barry Bonds stat slash fact? And his example is, there have been four seasons in history of qualified batters with more intentional walks than strikeouts. And three of the four are Barry Bonds. Dave Rader is plus one in 1973. Then Barry Bonds in 2003 is plus three.

Barry Bonds in 2002, plus 21. Barry Bonds in 2002, plus 21. Barry Bonds in 2004, plus 79. And his favorite stat is if you pretend that every hit he had in 2004 was actually an out, he would still have had a 391 on-base percentage. Yeah, I believe would have led the league in on-base percentage, I think is how I heard that one. That's a good one. Mine, I don't know the exact number off the top of my head, but my favorite for the last few years has been that Barry Bonds has a 5,000 OPS against something like 35 pitchers

that he faced, including Guillermo Mota, who he faced nine times. Nine times, Ben. A triple would have ruined it. That's a good one. Nine times. 5,000 OPS. So that's my favorite. Good.

Gabe says, if the BBWA gave each of us one vote and it meant that the guy we voted for would get elected to the Hall of Fame. Who would you choose if given the choice of Pete Rose or Barry Bonds? Well, that's an easy one. Bonds? Yeah, right?

I mean, I want Bonds to be in, and I don't particularly want Pete Rose to be in. So that's—even if they gave me two votes, I think it would be the same outcome. Yeah. I don't know. The only other – if you believe that both of them should be in, then you might vote for Rose just because he is more unlikely to get in without your magic vote. But probably still Bonds. Yeah. Do you think we'll ever talk about Pete Rose on this podcast?

Again? Unlikely. Yeah, it would have to be. It'll come up at some point. We'll be doing this for decades. Yeah. When he gets in, if he ever gets in, we'll talk about it then, I bet. Eric Hartman says,

if the 1927 Yankees stepped into a time machine and played in the coming MLB season, how would they do? I figure due to modern training, nutrition, and loogies and such, they'd be significantly worse than the world beaters they were then, but would they even be an MLB caliber team? No, they wouldn't. But you know what I've wondered is I, I, I think that, that, um, I think that the common belief is that the answer is no. And I've always believed the answer is no. Um, and yet I have never seen anybody show it.

And it feels like you ought to be able to show it because a lot of these guys have played for 20 years and if the effect is that large in 80 years uh then there should be some effect for 20 and i know that there's this sort of confounding variable which is that they're actually aging as well and it's hard to isolate what their true talent is separate from their competition if their competition is also changing but i feel like it should be doable i mean if you can see like sometimes you see these chains where you know player x pitched a player y who hit off player x who pitched a player y who you know was babe ruth's mom um and you it seems like you ought to be able to take enough of those and see the effect, but I don't know how you would. Don't you think?

Yes. Yeah, I see what you're saying. Don't think they could take the Astros? I don't think that they could probably take Lancaster. Wow. Wow. they could probably take Lancaster. Wow.

Huh. What if they... How long would you have to give them to, say, train with modern methods to become a Major League Caliber team? Or are you saying that their true talent level,

regardless of tactics and training and all of that, is still not major league caliber? Combination of both. I think that their true talent level, as a group, I would say their true talent level wouldn't be major league level because the population of the world was so small and the population of people who were playing baseball in particular from childhood was so small and the population of people who were playing baseball in particular was, you know, from childhood, was so small. But, you know, even if that were true, I mean, assuming that that is true, I should say,

then the very top, the very upper echelon, you know, Garrigan and Ruth should be at least competent, right? Because even if it's one-tenth of the population is playing baseball, the best would still be, you know, credible. So I think it's partly that, that as a group they were well below Major League standards because the population was smaller. And then also they haven't played the game with anywhere near the sophistication or acquired intensity that the game is played out right now.

So to answer your question, I don't think that overall you could make the 1927 Yankees a credible team in any amount of training. However, yeah, maybe the very best, you know, maybe, I don't know. If you got him by 16 or if you got him by 18 and you had six years with him, you might be able to make him reserves. Who knows? What are you asking me for? I have to. Someone asked this. We have no choice but to answer.

Okay, and then there's a Mike Trout question. You like those. It's from Scott. He says, we know that the CBA prevents teams from offering to sign a player to a contract that includes an ownership interest in the team, and we know that players can sign contracts providing for a personal services position with the organization after retirement. But what if Mike Trout told the Angels that he would sign a 15-year extension

if, upon his retirement, he immediately received a five-year contract to be Angels GM, let's say for a million dollars a year? Because an extra five million dollars to Trout is peanuts within the context of his upcoming extension, how high a GM salary must Trout demand before the team actually has to question the sanity of accepting Trout's offer? Help me out. Why wouldn't they just give him the money? Well, they have to make him...

I mean, the sticking point is the position, right? I mean, the – well, do you think the Angels would do it today if he said, I'll sign a 15-year extension, and presumably for some below market rate, I suppose, is part of the precondition here. If upon his retirement he gets to be, he actually gets to be GM for five years, they can't just hire him and fire him? Would they sign Mike Trout for 15 years if as part of the deal they had to let him run the team rookie of the year style for five years? After that. Not rookie of the year.

Little big league. Sorry. Yeah. Nobody involved in the organization is going to be there in 15 years. Probably not. And the owner almost certainly won't own the team. Mike Socha might be there. And so I would say that they, yeah, probably. I mean, you know, yeah, sure. GM's not team president anyway. They could always overrule him. Yeah, sure. The GM's not team president anyway. They could always overrule him. Yeah, okay.

I would guess they would. I think they would happily do that. What a weird thing to ask for. In 15 years, I would like to be the GM of a team. Well, players have gone on to be GM. I would want to do it. It's true. If you're asking for things. What if Mike Trout said to Artie Moreno, he went over to Poto's head and he said,

make me GM right now. I'll be player GM. And I will play for $1 million a season, and I will also be the GM for the same salary. Well, hard to imagine he could do $60 million worth of damage as a GM. As a GM who is also a full-time baseball player? Yeah, it's actually not that hard to imagine. Yeah, it's actually not that hard to imagine.

Again, I mean, GM is not dictator. He's not asking to be the only person with decision-making authority. I guess I'd say yeah, but that feels weird. You can't just make him a figurehead. He really wants to be running the team. You can't just say, okay, you. He really wants to be running the team. You can't just say, okay, you're GM and then contradict everything he says. Then he won't be happy for you. That's true.

He might trade himself to a team that will play him. He might demand a trade. To a team that would give him a legitimate shot at building a roster. We've gotten to the point now where the listener questions aren't weird enough. We have to make them even more far-fetched. There aren't any really good incentives. Nobody has really asked for any good incentives in baseball. I once went through every contract trying to put together a list of funny incentives. And it was like A.J. Burnett's wife needing a limo to drive to Toronto.

And that was it. That was like the entire list. Somebody needs to start thinking of better incentives. Because if money is... I mean, these teams do have... These teams have a lot to offer besides money you know they like they ought to let them have uh you know i don't know what what would you want what would you want to do you were a player and you wanted something that was not money i probably wouldn't want to be a gm when i retired

i think i might too like that actually might be the best thing that they could offer. It'd be fun. It would be fun. Bobby Abreu has a clause. He earns a $50,000 bonus if he is named comeback player of the year.

Yeah. Well, you just chuckled at that, but my position is that that's not actually funny. That's not funny enough. It should be. I feel like he should get more if that happens. If that happens, he'll be such a great deal that the Phillies should be willing to pay him much more for that. So you know how you're not allowed to have incentives for specific stats like you can't have? Yeah. You know, if you hit 20 home runs you get x you can

only have it for playing time basically uh and then the kind of games finished loophole that closers have but otherwise you you can't have specific stats would you like it if you could or is that asking for trouble yeah seems like too many potential complications. I would love to see contracts that were entirely incentive-driven and were all stats-based. Yeah. It would be exciting if, like, I mean, as a broadcast, you could just, I mean, the announcers could tell you how much money the player just made

for doing the thing he just did there'd be like cash register sounds right somebody should actually run out to the base that you're standing on and hand you the money yeah I would like that alright well we worked through much of

the backlog here. So now we need more questions. Exactly. So now we need more so we can do this again on Friday. So please send us more emails. They don't have to be crazy, but if they are, we'll probably answer them at podcast at baseballprospectus.com. And we'll be back with more tomorrow.