Effectively Wild: A FanGraphs Baseball Podcast - Effectively Wild Episode 689: Reluctantly Trashing the Twins

Episode Date: June 5, 2015

Ben and Sam talk to Aaron Gleeman about the confounding, first-place Minnesota Twins.

🎵 What the truth is What the truth is You're not me Good morning and welcome to episode 689 of Effectively Wild, the daily podcast from Baseball Perspectives, presented by The Play Index at BaseballReference.com. I'm Ben Lindberg of Grantland, joined by Sam Miller of Baseball Prospectus. Hello. Hey. Talking to me on the other side of a closed door in the same house, which is strange. I got the birds tonight.

Yeah. So earlier this week on Monday's show, I broke the news to Sam that the Twins were having a successful season. We tentatively agreed to talk about them at some point this week, and that's what we're going to do today. And we're going to do that with the longtime Twins fan, king of the Twins blogosphere, and blogger at Hardball Talk, host of the Gleeman and the Geek podcast, Aaron Gleeman. Hey, Aaron.

Hey, how's it going, guys? All right, so we have picked the perfect time to talk to you because the Twins are twinsing again right now as we speak. There's a game in progress. The Twins started Tommy Malone, who went five innings, didn't strike out anyone. Very Twins. They've been out hit by the Red Sox. They've managed to tie the game on a Torrey Hunter homer and then a Kurt Suzuki single. And now in the ninth against Koji Uehara, they have taken the lead on a missed

catch error by third baseman Pablo Sandoval. So it's very twins. They've been out hit. They've probably been out pitched in a fielding independent sense, and they've committed a couple errors. And as we speak they're probably going to win the game what you said sandoval's there was a miscatch like it was like a pop-up that he just dropped or there were uh there were two guys on and mauer bunted in a tie game in the ninth inning which if it would have gone poorly i think my twitter feed would have just exploded you think so i? I mean, I don't know. I'm not sure that's a place I don't like a bunch.

Yeah, but everyone here hates Maurer. It's a real odd thing. And then they threw the ball away and they took the lead. And also before that, Hanley Ramirez made a terrible base running play. And then Mike Napoli tried to score from first base on a single, like just a run-of-the-mill single to the outfield and was thrown out. From first? He tried to score from first?

Yeah. I mean, the third base coach, Butterfield, he waved him in, so it's not really Napoli's fault. But, yeah, there's a lot of weird things that have gone on that the Twins have done for themselves, but I don't really know how to measure. I'm sure there's some way to do it, but the number of just completely

boneheaded base running plays and crazy bad errors that other teams have done while playing the twins is it's amazing can we go back to napoli because runners scoring from first on singles was a i believe an early fascination with of this podcast because of a memory i had of eric davis doing it once and eric davis doing it once was i mean he was very fast that i mean what yeah no uh i mean it must have been three two and two outs right he must have been going on the pitch uh there was two outs yeah but i mean isn't go i mean mike napoli going on a pitch that's a relative thing right it's true. That just means that he's started the car and is waiting for it to warm up on a cold morning.

Yeah, and it was like a fairly typical single to right center, fielded cleanly, thrown into the second basement. And then Dozier, somebody must have yelled home. And Dozier was kind of like, no, can't be home. held home and dozier was kind of like no can't be home so he just kind of turned around and didn't even double clutch because he wasn't even prepared to make a throw saw what was happening and just kind of threw one into home and they tagged him out and it i don't i said uh that's in my mind the way like a game fixing scandal would start like somebody would see that play and go, yeah, something's going on here. It's true. It's a little obvious. It's like if this was the TV show The Mole,

everybody just found The Mole. Yeah, they were almost too obvious about it. They ruined the whole show. And that's the entire Twins season. Is it some sort of Truman Show style experiment? 29 moles. There's 29 moles and then the twins So if the twins

Win this game and they might by the Time we finish talking they Will be 32 and 21 Which would give them the Second best record in the American League at least briefly behind The Astros better than any Team in the National League except the Cardinals

And this is the Minnesota Twins we're talking about. They've been bad for a few years now. I don't know whether anyone expected them to be anything otherwise this year. What were your expectations for the Twins heading into this year? I thought they would take a clear step forward, but sort of like Mike Napoli running from first first it's like they've been so bad that that could have still meant you know 74 75 wins i think i officially picked them to go 75 and 87 and then they that was before they lost urban santana for half the year and he was their big biggest free agent signing in franchise history i I think no one that I could find in terms of prominent

national predictions had them not in last place. Someone at BP of the many, many people surveyed had them fourth. That was the most optimistic anyone was. Aaron, what was your reason for thinking even that they would make modest steps forward? Because most of the great farm system is still in the farm, right? I mean, there are some guys who are young, but I shouldn't answer for you because you're knowledgeable. I'm not. Why did you even think they would take steps forward given the makeup of this team? I thought that with Santana and hopefully Phil Hughes being closer to the 2014 version than the previous version, that their starting pitching would go from historically inept to just regular bad. And that would shave a ton of runs off. We've kind of seen that.

And then I had a little bit of optimism for their offense you're definitely right that buxton and suno who are the two prospects that everybody's been waiting for for years now are at best were considered mid-season guys and so that didn't really play a huge factor but i did think you know kenny vargas as waldo arcia danny santana some of their younger building block guys would maybe get a full season and be pretty good. And actually, that's been not true at all. So they're winning despite the young guys being pretty bad. Santana hasn't thrown a pitch.

Phil Hughes has actually been pretty bad, too. So I'm so confused about the success of this team more so than I think any team I've ever, you know, tracked Twins-wise. Yeah, so, I mean, you named those guys as being pretty bad i mean everybody's been pretty bad right i mean that's the thing about this season is that like last year they had every regular in their lineup if you count vargas as the dh he only played 53 games but every regular in their lineup had an ops plus higher than 100 so this year three guys do and two are under 50 and four are under 70 and in fact only three are over 90 every six of their nine regulars are under 90 for ops plus so this is not an example of a team that's playing well in a like in the in the way that this is

why people hate us this is why people hate set they've won all the games and we're like nah yeah they're playing terribly yeah yeah no but you're right though i mean i think well before today they were like either 12th or 13th in on base slugging everything basically but they're hitting 300 with runners in scoring position compared to like 230 with every other spot and they've done an amazing job of having these huge innings like they'll score four or five runs i think they've almost had as many four run or more innings this season than they did on average for the past three or four seasons so they'll they'll score and most of them come very early so they'll score'll score and most of them come very

early so they'll score four or five six runs in one of the first few innings and then it'll just shut down but that'll be enough to hold on to win they've i don't know clustered their hits together i think is what i've started saying and runners in scoring position they've done amazingly well but yeah this is not has not been an impressive offense at all so everyone's written there why are the twins winning post jeff sullivan did one and michael bauman did one and matt trueblood did one and joe sheehan did one and they've all made that you know basic point that the twins hitters have been out hit and their pitchers have been pitched and they've just managed to sort of string together hits in a way

that has helped them win more than they should have. And we've seen teams like this before where people at least made the same sort of argument about them, like the Orioles in 2012, for instance, where people would point to their run differential and say, well, it's all one run games and it's bullpen and it's not going to last in it. And it did last for them. And Orioles fans had reasons why those criticisms weren't valid right it was show Walter was doing something special or Duquette was doing something special there was something that the numbers were missing is there any sense among Twins fans or do you have the sense that there is anything that these numbers are missing is there some sort of

Twins secret sauce? I mean, I don't have that sense, but I'm a soulless robot for the most part. So I'm never going to have that sense. But yeah, I mean, the easiest thing that people here have pointed to is, well, you got a new manager. So Paul Mowter's changed the entire vibe. So the story goes, and everyone's more comfortable, and it's more relaxed, and they're not afraid to lose. They lose a game, and the vibe in the clubhouse is much better. And then they come back and win the next day, all that stuff. But to me, as the soulless robot, that all seems like kind of after the fact rationalizations. I don't in watching him.

I mean, they're less there's been fewer instances where they've just immediately lost the game because the starting pitcher has been terrible which was the thing that killed them the past three or four years but other than that there hasn't been that much difference i don't think their defense hasn't been that great the bullpen perkins has been great and they've gotten crazy good performance from blaine boyer which no one really expected or you know but other than that you can't point to that much other than when they get guys on base they all start hitting until the other team is basically done is there a return of tory hunter narrative oh so much yeah there's uh he was like getting credit like before a game had been played just because the media here loves him and the fans love him and all that. And now that he's performing well, especially offensively, and the team is doing well, the number of quotes that attribute the success to him, not only people making that narrative

themselves, but I mean, the players will say that, especially a lot of the young players after games. They'll say, yeah, Torrey gave us a pep talk. He has them. They have a smoke machine in the clubhouse and they do dance parties after games and i guess he was the driving force behind that so yeah the tory hunter as franchise savior is yeah that's a real loud at this point boy dance parties has been done didn't james shields do dance parties last year with the royals that was a royal story these veterans have to get

some new post-game celebrations the angels Angels never had dance parties with Torrey, which really makes you wonder why he was such a bad clubhouse guy back then. Why nobody was writing articles about the lack of dance parties. If we'd known he had another notch, he could have taken it, too. It would have been a controversy. Is there anyone on this team who is underperforming? Is there anyone that you look at and say, okay, the Twins' underlying performance hasn't been that great,

but maybe there is actually more here. And as their luck goes the other way, and eventually they stop clustering their hits like this, some guys will actually just play better. Is there anyone who fits that description? I mean, I would hope joe mauer but at this point i there's not much evidence to support that other than the fact that he used to be really really good but since the concussion in uh mid 2013 he moved to first base that was

supposed to help keep him healthy and up his production but he's been uh he's turned into like kind of a i don't know jt snow type hitter where he takes some walks and you know is capable of a clutch hit now and then just because his approach at the plate is okay but he's not i mean he's basically hitting like a short stop for the past year and a half so i would guess he'll be better than he's been but who knows i mean some of the guys that you would expect like i mean we talked a little bit about Vargas and Arcia, but they're currently at AAA. And the Twins are playing guys like Eduardo Escobar and Eduardo Nunez and Shane Robinson. They've chosen to give those guys DH time and left field time over guys who might actually have some offensive upside.

So I really there's no one you can point to because the best all-around position players in the team are probably Dozier and Plouffe at this point, maybe Hunter, and they've been the three guys who have actually hit so far. I mean, we've seen some teams that managed to sustain this sort of thing for a full season, like the 2007 Diamondbacks who won 90 games and made the playoffs with the run differential of a 79 win team. And sometimes you just get off to a fluky start and then you can bolster the team somehow and actually make it count. Is there anything that the twins could do or that you expect them to do? Either calling people up or making trades or something to build on this run, even if they didn't quote unquote

deserve it? I think that's definitely, there's people have been debating should they try to, you know, if they're still in this in July, try to make trades. And I'm, I don't quite know what to think. It makes me a little nervous. But in terms of call-ups, I mean, if they're playing anywhere close to this well in a month, you have Byron Buxton, who's a consensus top three prospecting potentially you know gold glove center fielder with a good bat you have Miguel Sano who is a potential 35 homer guy in the middle of the lineup you could call those two guys up and that can make a huge impact I don't know that they'll do that but they've been good but not great for the most

part at double-a both of them and then the other thing is Irvin Santana, who was supposed to be their number two starter, comes back, I think, in exactly four weeks from now. So they'll be able to get hopefully 15 starts from him. So you're kind of adding a good starting pitcher, hopefully, in Santana. So that's a little bit like a trade. And then at some point, if Sano and Buxton keep playing well double A you'd think they have to get called up although Sano is still playing third base and Plouffe is the third baseman he's not going anywhere and Buxton is center field and they've

given Aaron Hicks another shot to to play there and he's not been horrible and he's actually been really good defensively so I think those would be the three obvious additions but for the the two prospects I'm not sure what they're thinking is at this point, because I think the team's success has really changed what their plan was. So at this time last year, and I was thinking about this as we prepared to talk to you, we had JP Breen on to talk about the Brewers, who were the similar story at the time. They were a team that wasn't projected to be much better than a high 70s win team. They seemed to be running away with it, although there wasn't projected to be much better than a high 70s win team they seemed to be

running away with it although there wasn't a ton of great individual performance that made you go that's why and the royals we didn't talk to jp bringing about the royals that would have been nonsensical however the royals were also a team that as the deadline approach was a team that was seen as generally being not that good. They were around 500. They had a run differential and a third order winning percentage that were much worse than that. And I'm trying to remember, as I recall, the Royals were in the trade market, right, at the time? Or they were like trying to trade for somebody and the Brewers were kind of inactive and sat out. or they were like trying to trade for somebody and the brewers were kind of inactive and sat out.

And I think we have the same sort of discussion of like, well, are they really good enough? And it seems like if you're there, if you're close, you pretty much have to go for it, right? But I don't know, the Pirates two years ago didn't, and they were somewhat criticized for not, but then, you know, they won the next year and they stayed with their plan. I mean, it's a challenge, right? How much do you invest in the season that comes a year earlier than you were planning on? And it's windfall, right? You're playing with house money at this point, but on the other hand, who knows? Maybe it's the closest you ever get. We don't really know. Yeah. I mean, to me, it's scary because they have a very well-stocked farm system.

Most of their top prospects haven't been called up yet. They have a fan base that sort of gave up on the team. The attendance has been terrible for a year and a half. And they also have a front office that's run by a very veteran GM who I think would like to win sooner than later, certainly. If they wanted to add a setup man or add a you know platoon outfielder or something like that to boost the offense that's that'd be one thing but yet the notion of them being out there trying to acquire a number one starter or some sort of middle of the order bat is is really scary to me by the time the deadline comes we might not even have to have that conversation

because the central has some other good teams and the Twins haven't built up a huge lead or anything. So they could fall out of it fairly quickly if things started going against them. But do Twins fans, and I'm talking, I guess, about non-internet Twins fans because the internet seems sort of united on whether the Twins are actually good. Does the average Twins fan at the ballpark buy this team, do you think? I mean, is there a lot of excitement? Like, okay, this is the Twins team we've been waiting for all these years? There's definitely a lot of excitement.

I'd say it's like maybe 30% people who buy this and 70% people who are just happy to not have a terrible team and really don't care and kind of don't want to talk about all the stuff we've talked about of whether or not it's for real and why not. But as someone who writes about them almost every day and hosts a show about them, it is nice to just have a team that is not terrible. I mean, it's rough to talk about four 90 plus loss seasons in a row. You kind of get it beaten out of you that you just, it's hard to get motivated to even talk about should they do this and should they do that? Because it's like, what's the difference? And so I'm fairly convinced that they're going to slip and fall back down to earth a little bit, but I'm also trying to wrap my head around, you know, they've banked these wins. They don't have to give these wins

back. And there's nothing saying that they're going to, you know, play 200 baseball for the second half to meet some sort of, you know, 75 win projection. So I've been trying to convince myself that if I thought they were a 75 win team coming into the season, now I should basically think of them as a, you know, 80, 82 win team, something like that. But it's a tough sell even within my brain. And I mean, it can still be fun. Even if you're fully aware of all the stuff we've talked about, it can be completely enjoyable in the moment for as long as it lasts. So has there been a particularly fun moment or a weirdest or wackiest thing that has gone the Twins way that stands out in your mind? I mean, there's been so many because the way they've won is almost every victory.

Like today was a perfect example. Like either something incredibly strange goes wrong for the other team or that happens and maybe Torrey Hunter comes up with a three-run homer or the Twins explode for six runs in an inning. comes up with a three-run homer or the twins explode for six runs in an inning there hasn't been that many just you know four to two victory where they scored uh two runs in the fourth one run in the sixth and one in the eighth and just kind of coasted to a random win that you'll never remember almost every one has been something strange happened some inning where 90 of their hits came within a 10 minute stretch it's really it's been a lot of fun to watch uh you're right that you know i should or twins fans should set aside whatever

they think is going to happen for the rest of the season just kind of say we've watched some really weird stuff happen some really fun stuff happening especially coming on the heels of so much losing it's uh it's been remarkable. So at this point, they would have to win 51.3% of their games in order to get to 88. And let's say 88 is the cutoff to make the playoffs. So that's like an 82 or 83 win team the rest of the way. I'm guessing you take the under and say that you would still bet against them to make the playoffs? Yeah, for sure. What winning percentage do I need to get you to in order for them like if they win the next six for instance then they would only have to win 48.5 percent of their games and 48.5 percent of their games over the course of the full season is 79 can they do that yeah

they can but would you bet on it i don't know i'm still kind of sticking i don't know why i'm sticking to this because it's not like you know my projections are infallible. I'm still kind of sticking. I don't know why I'm sticking to this because it's not like, you know, my projections are infallible, but I'm still kind of sticking to them as a 75 win team, which I don't know if there's any reason to do that at this point. But yeah, but if you start, yeah, I could I mean, I would say if you said they're going to play at a 78 win pace from here on out, I would certainly not doubt that at all. It's perfectly reasonable. I mean, basically any team that's not a disaster can do that, right? So I think at that point, I'd maybe, I would take the under, but I would perhaps not bet a whole bunch on it. And if it comes to pass, does Kyle Gibson with his 4.4 strikeouts per nine and three walks per nine or Mike Pelfrey with his 4.1 strikeouts per nine and 2.7 walks per nine start the opener of the series yeah that's when it really gets uh well that's

gonna be fun i remember the days when the twins would would make the playoffs all the time and get knocked out immediately by the yankees and people would call in to talk radio and say they need an ace they need an ace and i always thought that was really an annoying discussion to have but i long for those days now so yeah i guess i would guess I would say Phil Hughes is your game one starter. Even with the bad ERA and the bad FIP? I mean, those guys both have 2.6 ERAs. You think Hughes still gets to start with the bad ERA and the bad FIP? I mean, I'm going to assume he's going to be a little bit better.

I mean, I guess Phil Hughes game one, Irvin Santana game two, Kyle Gibson game three is not the worst playoff rotation I've ever seen. But, yeah, that's when you start thinking about it. And they really stand out as kind of just not a playoff team when you start putting it in those terms. But when they were a playoff team, I was at a playoff game in Minnesota where they started Brian Dunsing against the Yankees. So that doesn't necessarily mean anything, I guess. Last year, we kept wondering how Hughes was doing what he was doing, because he was just throwing a ton of pitches in the strike zone, and it seemed to work really,

really well. And we wondered why those pitches didn't get hit more often when hitters knew that he was just always going to be throwing them in the strike zone. So we wondered how that worked so well, and is the answer now looking like it doesn't for more than one season? A little bit. I think, I mean, he always had issues giving up too many home runs, and that's the main thing this season. He's still throwing an incredible number of strikes. I think he has fewer walks, actually, than he did at this point last season. Yeah, seven and 69 innings. Yeah, I mean, so that hasn't changed at all. But he's a little bit more Bob Tewksbury-esque than he was before. I think part of that is just because hitters have adjusted. They know

you might as well just hack at him because he's not going to walk you. I think he's getting, I don't know, ambushed or whatever term people like to use now, earlier in at-bats. I also just think he had a hip flexor injury that he had some trouble with. He had a broken fingernail at one point that he couldn't throw his breaking stuff as well for a couple starts. So I think that's maybe played a part a little bit. I mean, I didn't expect him to, again, set the best strike-out-to-walk ratio in the history

of baseball. But I think he's been close enough to that type of pitcher that I would bet on him having a lower ERA for the rest of the season. I don't think he's going to be an ace caliber guy, but I think he'll still end up as their best pitcher probably or best starter. I really thought the Twins were starting to get to the point where they might strike some people out i wrote something a couple years ago about how they had traded or drafted some some strikeout guys and they'd sort of said some stuff that sounded like they were more more eager to strike some people out and nope nope

they are still striking out fewer batters than anyone else. You were excited by the Meyer trade. I remember you thought that that was the moment that it revealed itself. Yeah, that was one of the things. Yeah, and that has not happened at all. It was like they signed a bunch of guys. They drafted them. I'm scrolling through this article, which is not a great podcast. Hey, can I ask you a question while you're scrolling?

Mm-hmm. All right, Aaron, let's say that the twins could trade buxton for strasburg right now strasburg is a free agent after after 2016 so they'd get him for the playoffs this year if they made it they'd get him for the stretch run and they'd have him for next year do you do it i would hang up so fast on that call all right let me let me try again buxton for cashner same same contract status no i mean so no for cash i've become so attached to the notion of baron buxton being essentially willie mays at this point that trading him for even a season and a half of a legit number one guy seems kind of crazy. But and also if the I mean, if Terry Ryan, if anybody even called Terry Ryan and actually offered them that, I'd just be shocked just by the way he is and is perceived around baseball.

But, yeah, I'm maybe this is being a fan of a small market developed from within team for my whole life. But those type of trades always seem insane to me in almost every circumstance but all right what about so now for cashner uh are we convinced that cashner's amazing i mean he's really good but i uh are we convinced that so no is no that's true yeah i guess maybe i should think about that because so no very easily he's playing third base right now but i don't know that that'll stick he could very easily be a 250 hitting 30 homer first baseman or left fielder or something in which case it doesn't have that much value but I feel like the twins after waiting through all that losing they kind of have to see at least with those two guys Buxton and Sano how it actually

turns out so episode 92 of this podcast was about the Alex Meyer trade. Then there was trading Ben Revere for Trevor May. And there was Cole Nelson, the guy they got back for Delman Young and Lester Olivares. And they drafted a bunch of guys, Hudson Boyd, Madison Bower, Jose Barrios, Luke Bard, Zachary Jones, lots of guys who threw mid-90s, high 90s, and it looked like there was going to be a wave of these guys coming, but this was a couple years ago, and they haven't really showed up at the major league level. Are some of these guys still coming? Is there like a hard-throwing AAA Twins team? There is. Okay,

so that's an interesting list you just named, because they have a lot of hard-throwing AAA Twins team? There is. Okay, so that's an interesting list you just named because they have a lot of hard-throwing relievers, including Lester Alvarez. But they've chosen to go with Blaine Boyer and Aaron Thompson and guys who don't strike anybody out. And it's worked amazingly well so far. But, yeah, Lester Alvarez is still putting up big numbers at AAA. Alex Meyer last week was moved to the bullpen at AAA. AAA. Alex Meyer last week was moved to the bullpen at AAA. So they've sort of given up on him being a starter for now, at least, just because he could never get his control to a point that he was pitching it all deep in games. And then this year at AAA was a mess. Trevor May has actually been, he's in their rotation right now and has actually been pretty impressive. He's one of their only

guys who misses bats and throws you know harder than 92 with his fastball so he i think has the potential to be a maybe a number three starter long term most of the guys they've drafted have uh flamed out jose barrios is at double a doing really well so they still think he's going to be at this point he's their best pitching prospect but yeah for the most part the guys they acquired and i like the meyer trade too at the time i thought to get a six foot nine hard throwing former first round pick who people legit thought was a top 50 prospect for denard span was a good move but at this point they're hoping he'll be a reliever and he still has yet to debut and i think he turns 26 before the end

of the season mason melotakis he's doing well in double A, also a reliever, but has a six strikeout to walk ratio. So lots of guys, but I guess they ended up in the bullpen mostly. And they have Glenn Perkins, so it's sort of safe to have strikeout guys in the bullpen. They have one of those guys. We're kind of at the crest of the wave maybe of the Twins' excitement. So everyone's writing about the twins talking about the twins this week what date would you guess is the day when everyone starts writing there oh okay these are these are the real twins when what is that week oh i i really fit in with you guys because you know in minnesota i am the biggest buzzkill but i think i'm like

second or third biggest buzzkill just on this show, which is nice. That's a good change. I guess logically, I'd say, I don't know, mid-July, give them another month. As somebody who still grew up a Twins fan and hasn't let all of that escape from me yet, part of me is like, how bad would they truly have to play between now and the trade deadline for no one to consider them even on the fringes of playoff contention? It would have to be really, really bad, like Sam was pointing out with the winning percentages and stuff. So I don't know that it's going to be before the end of July, really.

But which, like I said, it's scary. It's a new feeling for me. Like I said, it's scary. It's a new feeling for me. But they could easily have a bad three weeks and still be a couple games above 500. And with the wildcard stuff, it's tough to play yourself completely out of the playoff race after this type of start. All right. Well, it's possible to look at it analytically and also enjoy every minute of it. And maybe they will end up proving us wrong somehow.

So enjoy it while it lasts, as long as it lasts. Maybe it'll last all season. Who knows? All right. Aaron Gleeman is on Twitter, at Aaron Gleeman. And you can find him blogging all day at HardballTalk at NBC Sports. Thank you, Aaron. Thanks, guys.

All right. So that is it for this week. You can support our sponsor, The Play Index, by going to BaseballRe Aaron. Thanks, guys. All right, so that is it for this week. You can support our sponsor, The Play Index, by going to baseballreference.com, using the coupon code BP to get the discounted price of $30 on a one-year subscription. Send us emails at podcast at baseballprospectus.com. Join the Facebook group at facebook.com slash groups slash effectivelywild.

And have a wonderful weekend. We will be back next week.