Effectively Wild: A FanGraphs Baseball Podcast - Effectively Wild Episode 72: How Many Members of the Angels’ Rotation Will Be Back?/Predicting the First- and Last-Place Teams of 2013

Episode Date: October 30, 2012

Ben and Sam discuss the decisions the Angels are about to make concerning Dan Haren and Ervin Santana and talk about what their 2013 rotation will look like, then predict 2013’s division/World Series winners and last-place teams.

ollie it's raining sideways sounds rough ollie do you have an umbrella had one where is it inside out two miles away is there anything we can do for you bring me some soup what kind chunky good evening and welcome to episode 72 of effectively wild the daily podcast from baseball prospectus.com i'm sam miller in long beach california still hanging on in new york new york is ben lindberg. Ben, how are you doing? I am in a flooded neighborhood, but somehow still have power. Everywhere two blocks south of me and below has gone dark. How many more days does this last? I think the worst of it is supposed to be right now, and then it will kind of linger for another day, day and a half or so.

But we're like the postal service of podcasts, I guess. Yeah, except for those days that we... No, neither wind nor rain nor sleep nor so, but occasionally we will oversleep an alarm or something and miss the show.

We have missed for no reason whatsoever, but we never miss for a reason. Right. So what do you want to talk about? We're back to our old format. What do you want to talk about? My topic should be right in your wheelhouse. I want to talk about the Angels rotation. And I'll talk about the 2013 World Series odds

sort of so why don't you go first okay so the Angels are facing a couple decisions in the next year or two here this is the time of year when teams have to decide whether to pick up

2013 options on players and two fifths of the' rotation are guys who have options for next year. Dan Heron has a $15.5 million option, and Irvin Santana has a $13 million option. And so they have to decide whether to exercise one or both of them or decline one or both of them by Wednesday. And reportedly, they have also been trying to trade these players, or they've at least explored

the possibility of trading them. And then a team that traded for them could exercise the option if they wanted to, and then make a qualifying offer at the end of the season and get a draft pick or something. So I guess just between any uncertainty there is there and CJ Wilson's injury, I guess the Angels kind of can count on Jared Weaver right now and would have Garrett Richards, I guess. But other than that, there's uncertainty with almost everyone with Zach Granke also be being a free agent. So I wonder as kind of an angels guy, what you think about the decisions that they're facing in the next day or two with, with Heron and Satana and what their rotation will look like next spring or how many

members of the 2012 rotation will return um well i think santana is an easy no um and i didn't ever really expect them to pick that up even last year i didn't expect them to ultimately pick that up i'm not a very bring him back on a smaller deal or try to? I mean, I don't think that they would necessarily have any advantage in that sense. So, I mean, they might, but they might try to bring back lots of pitchers in smaller deals or bigger deals. I mean, I think that, I think if, I think Santana is, you know, maybe slightly more likely than the average free agent to pitch for them next year, but not significantly more likely. And Santana, I don't know.

I mean, they've had six and a half years with their pitching coaches to try to get some consistency out of him, and he just isn't. And he specifically is, I mean, consistency is really a consistency is one of those horrible vague terms that usually just means good and inconsistency usually just means he's bad but santana it really is sort of flaky in that kind of classic way that we use that term and it's mostly i think it's mostly mechanical i think they think it's mostly mechanical and they haven't been able to fix him so i think it's probably mechanical. I think they think it's mostly mechanical. And they haven't been able to fix him. So I think it's probably time for another team's pitching coaches to try to take a shot at him.

He's got enough of an arm that I would think that some pitching coaches would really like that idea. And if a team could turn around Fernando Rodney, then I would certainly think that there's a team that would at least try and kind of salivate at the idea of turning around Santana. He's not a pitcher I like a whole lot though. And to me, what is it? It's like $13 million. $13, yeah. So, yeah, to me that's not a very difficult decision.

It's basically the same amount as a qualifying offer which is 13.3 this year yeah yeah um heron is a little bit trickier because um heron is one year removed from this being an extremely easy uh option to pick up um and i think we've pointed out on this show maybe multiple times that i think he was my Cy Young predict pick coming into the season. And he was just slightly above replacement level by our metrics, slightly below by some other ones. And there are certainly reasons to to take that seriously. I mean, he has he has a very good strike out to walk ratio. to take that seriously. I mean, he has, he has a very good strikeout to walk ratio. Um, and, um,

that's kind of where he was in Arizona when the angels traded for him. He was, uh, he had a good strikeout to walk ratio and was being kind of babbitt to death and they got him at a discount because of that. I think this is a different situation because of his, um, his lost velocity. It's been on a steady decline for about six years, and I think it's probably gotten to the point where he needs to make a new adjustment. The last time the velocity kind of reached that low, he learned the cutter, and I think that's not enough anymore. He needs a new trick. His health for the first time this year was an issue.

They would know much better than I would. I'm not sure they would know either, but they would know better than I would how much the back was a factor. And I mean, it wouldn't surprise me, I guess, if they turn the option down and the rumors that reporters around the team have been reporting are that they are likely to, I still kind of think that it's probably a decent option to pick up. It's only one year. It's certainly not a budget breaker. His upside is much greater than $13 or $14 million or whatever it's for. And I would think that of 30 teams, of 29 other teams, I would think there's one that would want that contract one year of Dan Heron.

And so I would think if they really want to move it, they probably can. That's my guess. Do you think it's an either-or thing? I don't know what their budget is, but if they're going to try to bring back Granke, can they afford both of them with that option? I've never found their budget limit. And so I don't – I mean they always seem to have the money when they need it. I think that if Artie Moreno thinks that it's the difference between winning or losing, then he's willing to go higher than he planned.

So I doubt it's either or. I mean, they had them both in the rotation this year. They gave up an awful lot to get two months of Granke. And so, I mean, they gave up a lot to get two months of Granke. And so I doubt that money would keep them from bringing them both back if they wanted them. I think it's maybe more that they don't really have any kind of special relationship with Granke. There was no real bonding that took place between him and the organization. They didn't talk about an extension after the trade. I would doubt that they have any more chance of signing

Granke than any of about 15 other teams. Do you think how much they gave up for him might in some way make them more inclined to try to bring him back? I mean, not that it has any effect now. I mean, this contract is separate from the trade, but the fact that they gave up all those players and then didn't make the playoffs, I don't know, it would just be maybe more obvious that they got very little out of that trade if they didn't bring him back. Yeah, fans definitely see it that way, and they have really from the day that they made

it, I doubt that they do. I mean, there's probably a little bit of that, but it's not a rational position, and I think far enough, I mean, that's a front office, I think, of rational people. And any one of them is capable of making an irrational decision. I think that they probably, as a group, though, are probably pretty good at keeping each other in line. I'd be surprised if they would go crazy. Now, that said, I think if the Dodgers had traded for Granke or the Tigers had traded for Granke or any other team had traded for Granke, I think they would try to sign him

this offseason. I just don't think that they have any particular edge for him. Okay, so go with your gut and your heart and your stomach like Joe Girardi. How many of the 2012 starters do you see in the 2013 rotation? And we're counting. I guess we have two confirmed or at least two will be back. Yeah, goodness. Well, I mean, so Wilson and Weaver and then I would say probably Richards but not Williams at the back. And the other two, I don't know.

I guess my gut would be Heron and a free agent. Okay. They don't really have anybody ready below the big club right now. Matt Shoemaker totally kind of lost it when they moved him up, and Nick Miranda's not ready yet so uh i think they're probably gonna go out and sign somebody or trade some i mean they also have trade pieces that are somewhat superfluous on their team it wouldn't surprise me if they move one of morales trumbo conger or something like that but i would think that there's going to be one pretty famous name that wasn't in the rotation last year, and my gut is that maybe Heron comes back.

All right. I got a prediction out of you. Yeah. Well, it's interesting because this is – at the beginning of the year, everybody makes their predictions, and they all turn out wildly wrong. At the end of the year, everybody makes their predictions for which free agents are going to go to new places. And they also turn out wildly wrong. I don't know which is harder, but that might actually be harder. And so transitioning to my topic this day, every year or around this day, Bod dog usually releases their 2013 play uh world series odds and um bloggers and writers all post them because what else is going on and um it's uh obviously it's a strange time to bet on a team because you don't really know the makeup of the team and you're betting on like all these hypotheticals in the free agency period and you i mean it's a really it's a it's an extremely low information um betting scenario and yet i was thinking about it and if you had bet uh at this time last year um you would probably have actually been better off

than um betting just before the season for quite a number of teams such as the marlins who at this time last year you would have thought would be terrible and then they signed everybody and you probably would have thought oh no they're good and they were terrible. And the Angels, you probably would have thought were just somewhat, you know, like a second tier, not quite good enough to knock off the Rangers, and then they went and got Pujols and Wilson and everything else. And there's actually quite a number of teams. The A's certainly looked like they got worse when they traded Gio and Cahill. And so just for fun, just to get us on the record,

I thought that I want to have you tell me your six division champions next year, your six last place teams next year, and your two World Series teams. And I'm going to ask you again just before the season, and I'm going to see which is better, you with information, you without information, or simply taking last year, the 2012 standings, and superimposing them on the 2013 year. Yeah, my predictions probably will look a lot like the 2012 standings, which they do every year, because I don't go out on a lot of limbs with my predictions. And they're usually still pretty wrong anyway, but that's how I tend to do it. So I guess

I will definitely go with repeats in a few divisions. I guess I'd go with the Yankees again and the Tigers again. And I think I'll go with the Angels in the West. And I don't really see any reason not to pick the Nats again. I don't see a strong reason not to pick the Reds again. And kind of have a hard time picking anyone but the Giants again. All right, and last place? These are the worst predictions ever.

Last place teams? Last place in every division? Yeah. Okay. Man, AL East is tough. I guess I would say the Blue Jays. Not confident in that at all, but I'll go with the Blue Jays and the Indians and the Mariners and,

uh, the Marlins, the Astros, and, the Astros, and I guess the Rockies. So four of the same last place teams and five of the same division winners. That's interesting. I was going to actually ask.

I might have mentioned this. I talk about it a lot around anybody who I talk to. There's this sort of phenomenon of pundits gradually kind of expanding the sensationalism of their predictions because they have to talk so much and because they have to get attention with their predictions and because they get more and more confident. The more they think of themselves as a pundit, the more confident they get in their predictions. And so they sort of lose discipline. And that's why, um, there's this research group that has been studying pundit predictions for 20 years and pundits are essentially no better than random chance. Um, and so I wondered whether in

our 72nd episode of this podcast, you had found yourself getting more kind of liberal in your predictions and you absolutely have not. No. Someone told me the other day that I should because people won't remember when I'm wrong and they might remember if I'm right, which could be the case, but I just don't seem to have it in me. but I just don't seem to have it in me. So I'll go with the Rangers, the Tigers, I'll go with the Rays, the Braves, the Cardinals, and the Giants. And for last place teams, the Rockies, Astros, Mets, Indians, Mariners, and Orioles. I didn't have the guts to predict the Orioles going back to last place.

I wanted to, but I didn't. And so Bodog, which I guess maybe has changed their name because of the U.S. Department of Commerce or Justice Department or something like that, whatever I'm looking at, which I think is Bodog, has the Tigers as the leading contenders for the 2013 World Series, which surprises me because they're not that great a team. And they were the sixth or seventh best team in the American League this year. And that's interesting. The Yankees are next, the Giants are third,

the Angels and the Rangers are tied for fourth. And the Astros have half of the odds of the next worst team. All right. Well, we'll do this again. Oh, do your World Series teams. I don't know why you can't pick World Series teams when we know the NLCS teams, but you might. Sure, okay.

I'll go with the Reds and the Angels. I'll say the Ravens and Cardinals for no reason. All right, so we'll do this again on the eve of the 2013 season, and then we'll review in one year and probably two or three days because I'm guessing there won't be a sweep in next year's World Series. That's all for Episode 72. Wait, that's not quite all. Oh, come on.

It's almost all. But before we go, we want you to contact us. I probably should have said this at the beginning of the show in case you got bored and stopped listening. We want you to email us with your questions or your comments or your praise or your criticisms or your funny stories or whatever you feel like emailing us with at podcast at baseball prospectus dot com, which if you were an up-and-in listener, you will recognize as the same email address that we have now inherited. So we hope that you will entertain us and help us entertain you over the winter with funny emails. So send us questions and comments

and we will talk about them. Okay. Yeah. There it is. Mm-hmm. All right. I'll talk to about them. Okay. Yeah. There it is. All right. I'll talk to you tomorrow. Okay.