Effectively Wild: A FanGraphs Baseball Podcast - Effectively Wild Episode 759: Your Fantastic Offseason Emails

Episode Date: November 4, 2015

Ben and Sam answer listener emails about buying two tickets to games, Derek Jeter jerseys, and the World Series, and Play Index about extra innings.

Around and around we go Where it's going, nobody knows Though I know it's in this place we fall Someone keeps on leaving the door Someone keeps on leaving the door Good morning and welcome to episode 759 of Effectively Wild, the daily podcast from Baseball Prospectus, presented by the Play Index at BaseballReference.com. I am Dan Lindberg of ESPN, joined by Sam Miller of Baseball Prospectus.

Hello. Yo. Email show. Any banter beforeball Prospectus. Hello. Yo. Email show. Any banter before email show? No. Okay. Oh, wait. Hang on.

Let me think. I might have. Yes. Ooh, we've got banter after all. I wanted to thank Owen who posted on Facebook about the Turkish pronunciation of çoban, the Turkish word for shepherd. Even in my discovery that it is based in the Turkish word çoban for shepherd and that the Turkish letter C is pronounced ch, like as a sort of a J,

I missed the fact that the C looking symbol in Choban is actually different than the standard C. It is a C with like a little like a little goatee on it. And and that C is actually pronounced ch. And so Chobani as so ch, Chobani. As Owen writes, the Chobani transliteration is pretty accurate. So thank you to our Istanbul contingent. Yes, thank you. I wonder how many languages our listeners speak collectively between all of them.

All right, question from Ivan. This is a moral question. He says, I go to Dodgers home games several times a season and other MLB games around the country if I can schedule them into my business trips. Is it bad that I usually go to baseball games by myself? And is it bad that sometimes I buy two tickets just so I have the extra leg and elbow room? I am not a sad, lonely person, just so I have the extra leg and elbow room. I am not a sad, lonely person, and I am only 72 inches tall and a slender 171 pounds,

so it's not a matter of needing the extra space, I just don't like stadiums cramped seating, and I can't afford, like, luxury suites. It is possible I have a weird psychological aversion to sitting knee-to-knee with people, forced to physically constrain my limbs, since I did that a lot while aboard aircraft in my days as a U.S. Army paratrooper, but nonetheless, I recommend you try this. Once you enjoy the freedom of being able to stretch your hamstrings and tiny Lindbergian calves in whatever manspreading configuration an open seat space affords,

you won't want to go back to sardining it at live sporting events. Unless you feel guilty about removing one person's ability to get into a sold-out game. Should I? It's a tough question. It is. It's a tough question mainly because I want to share my opinion or my answer, but I also think this falls under something that I don't want to be too judgy about. Like, I don't think that he should feel badly about it, even if I'm going to ultimately conclude that he shouldn't do it.

Because I think this falls under a little bit of, you know, your own... I think the morality here is probably somewhat relative. your own... I think the morality here is probably somewhat relative. And so I'm afraid that I'm going to come off as harsh. I don't even know what my answer is going to be until I start talking. But I'm afraid that when I do start talking, I might come off a little harsh. And I don't want that to happen. Okay. Well, you're already talking so keep all right so let's try let's try uh if there's actually you could argue i think that i would argue that there are three different ways you can look at this one is if there's a sellout is it uh depriving somebody of the chance to buy a ticket. Two is if there's not a sellout,

is it still a bit consumptive and wasteful with your resources? I mean, there's clearly something better that you can do for the world with that money. No, I shouldn't say there's clearly better. One's morality might argue that there are things better. And we shouldn't necessarily be thinking about the Dodger fan who doesn't get the Dodger ticket so much as maybe the starving child that doesn't get food. And so just any time you're consuming unnecessarily, you're consuming unnecessarily, then you can ask yourself whether you're really being a good steward of the wealth that we've all been blessed with. Not you, I'm not accusing him of being.

And of course, we all consume unnecessarily. Oh, way more. I mean, yeah, like that's an important thing to realize any time you start to hate the rich, is that we are the rich. We are, by the standards of the 100 billion people that have lived as well as by the standards of the 7 billion people who are currently alive, most of us are extremely rich and not doing enough. So that's part of the reason I don't want to be judgy, because clearly this pop filter that you bought me, for instance, on this microphone is also feeding very few starving children, even if they had access to it. It does mean that when you say words that start with P, all of the thousands of people who are listening don't hear an unpleasant sound. And that contributes to the good in the world.

All right. So those are two bits of math. And you might conclude that both of them is not significant enough. But then you could also sum them and ask whether the combination of the two. And so that would be like basically saying, is the sellout on itself enough? Is the consumption by itself enough and is it does it require both of those half sins in order to reach the level of a full sin uh is that enough so uh i would say that this would fall under the the category of things that i would not like you any less for, but things that I would also counsel against. Uh-huh. And that,

that I would, uh, I would, it's the sort of thing that, like, I don't think I would do this because it's not my taste. Like, I don't,

I don't, I mean, I don't care. I don't share this, this desire to do this, but. Right. Like one of the few places in the world where I feel like I'm fairly generous is that even though I'm a tall person, I will gladly take the middle seat on any flight I'm on.

I will even trade with the person who has the middle seat if they're interested. And I will never tip my seat back because for some reason my body doesn't require any of that space, even though I'm tall. It has never been something that I've needed to be comfortable. And so because of that, I'm able to be somewhat generous. And this would be another situation where I would not prioritize this to the degree that I would ever spend that money or commit those resources. However, it is the sort of thing that if my body did really want it or if my brain required it or prioritized it, I could see doing something along these lines and then aspiring to be better than that. And not necessarily succeeding,

but aspiring in my life. Like this would be the sort of thing that I might jot down one day as a goal or that I might make a New Year's resolution or something like that. Well, does it change the calculus at all that he speculates that this compulsion to need extra space comes from his military service when he did not have extra space? And so in a sense, he has given something of himself. And this is a payment that he receives in return, except that he continues to pay for the seats. But his payment is that he doesn't get judged for this. It's like his GI Bill. I can see that.

I'm not sure how committed he is to this speculation. It's the thing. I'm not sure how committed he is to this speculation is the thing. Yeah. I mean, yeah, if he – look, if he has – let me give another example. Another one of the very few ways that I'm in a very tiny and useless way, fairly generous, is I hardly ever take a close parking spot because I don't mind walking a little bit further. And so I figure there's someone who might need that closed parking spot. And so unless I'm in a real hurry, I'll usually park a little further away.

Now, if he, for GI-related reasons or for any other related reasons, had, like, for instance, a bad knee or a limp or plantar fasciitis or something like that, then I would certainly say, oh, no, definitely. Like, don't even listen to what I do at all. Just take the parking spot. Like, that's what it's there for. And so if there is some sort of knee issue or something, then, yeah, I mean, then it's not even the military experience necessary.

given the military experience necessary, like if you, if the degree to which your comfort, and baseball stadium seats are probably the most cramped seating in the world right now at this point, right? Like they are, there is no, this is like, this is how people all sat in 1930, I think. Like I think if you went to a movie theater, like you had to, like you'd sit in these tiny chairs, and then one guy would have to lay across the row of legs and everything.

The world used to be... People tended to be narrower then. People did tend to be narrower, yeah. That's a good point. And most seating, I think, has expanded somewhat. Like, you go to movie theaters and all that, and you're pretty comfortable. And most seating, I think, has expanded somewhat. Like, you go to movie theaters and all that, and, you know, you're pretty comfortable. Like, you've got these big seats, and you've got a reasonable amount of legroom in front of you, and people can pass. And the only places I really feel like where it is still completely impossible to move without everybody else standing up and letting you go and even then you can still barely get pat like that's really the test is when everybody

stands up you still have to create friction it's still very tight our um our baseball games and then a lot of church church pews uh so i do definitely appreciate that if you're going to two games a year or even 10 games a year or even 30 games a year, these are conditions that your body is not conditioned for. It is like asking you to use muscles that you don't usually use and it can be a challenge. I probably, I mean, there should be. I don't know do you ben do you think that it is to the greater good that 20 000 more people can see a game or that the 30 000 that could otherwise see the game have to be so uncomfortable i think probably that 20 000 can be there i don't know that i agree with that i think that's to me that's kind of like asking well i don't know is it to me it's kind of like asking whether you'd be sad if you had never been born.

Do the 20,000 who don't get to go, are they any sadder than the 6.95 billion who don't get to go? Well, presumably they'd like to go, so they know that they're missing out on this experience, whereas if you've never been born, you are not aware of not being born. Yeah. you are not aware of not being born yeah and if it's a big game if it's a sold out game then usually you're less aware of the physical discomfort i would think at least i mean if it's a post-season game or something you're on your feet a lot of the time anyway and you're so into the game that you're not necessarily paying attention to your leg room yeah that's a good point too i mean when it's a good game, the closeness is a benefit.

Like you look at some of these crowd shots, particularly if you were studying the Mets fans closely for four games in order to write an article about it, you see the closeness of everybody creates an energy that makes everything feel very communal and exciting. And yeah, you're right. Paradoxically, the more crowded it is, the more the crowding becomes in a way its own benefit. I forget where I was going with that.

But ultimately, I would say that it's a little tacky. Yeah, okay. I wouldn say that it's a little tacky. Yeah, okay. I wouldn't do it. I wouldn't feel too bad about it if I knew Ivan and were a friend of Ivan's. I would still be Ivan's friend if I saw him do this. Yeah, I've let my friends get away with way, way worse. And they have let me get away with way way worse i wonder what my equivalent is i'm an extreme sponge user like i i don't know how much sponge production takes out

of the the world but like i think sponges are petroleum based and uh i use so many sponges like so many kitchens but like so many kitchen sponges. I like a new sponge almost every day. I don't do that. I don't do that. I mean, I'll boil them to keep them clean, but I have a serious sponge germophobia. Yeah, sponges get gross,

and if you clean them, then they don't work as well. Yeah. I've always had this feeling. There was a... who was the, there was this, one of the great legendary preachers from the 19th century. I remember reading about who, you know, he started out preaching and he, you know, he was poor and his family was poor and, and all that. But then he became like,

he became one of the first mega pastors in this sort of – in the kind of semi-industrialized America. And so he ended up getting really, really rich. Like he was getting – like he was making like 200 grand a year, which at the time. And his family committed at the very beginning of this growth that their standard of living would never change, family committed at the very beginning of this growth that their standard of living would never change, that they had what they needed when they were making $200 a year, and therefore everything above that was what they didn't need. And so they would give everything away and basically keep living with this standard. They committed that their income would not determine their needs. And I've always thought that that's an incredibly instructive

way to live. And so I also like to think that my income, I mean, I've never had really an income shift, but I'd like to think that my income would also not determine my needs. And the one exception is that if I'm ever rich, I'm going to get a new pair of socks every single day and never wear the same pair of socks twice. And I have had to sort of grapple with whether even doing that makes me as bad as, you know, the billionaire who's doing like private jet flights to nowhere, you know? You could buy those socks with copper lining that Mike Peska tried on the gist to see if they would actually reduce odor. And according to his review, they did not. But that's the thing is I don't want socks that last.

I want socks that can be new. I want socks that are brand new. And then I want to get rid of them. They never feel the same way. They never feel as good. Okay, so Ivan, feel a little bad about yourself, but not too bad about yourself. You can keep going about your business.

Try to ignore the crying child who was not able to purchase a ticket because it was sold out because of your extra ticket. Yeah, if there's anything he would take away from our conversation, or at least my long-winded part of it, is that he seems to be worried about the fan that gets left out of a game and my conversation was mostly about not that and so if if he's not worried about my angle then cool because i'm not that worried about his angle all right anthony in philly has an excellent question that probably deserves real research and work,

but we're not going to do that, at least at this time. I might at some future time, but we will wing it. He says, I was at a game at Yankee Stadium in September and wondered how long the plurality of jerseys and shirseys at Yankee Stadium will be Jeter ones and who will dethrone him. At Yankee Stadium will be Jeter ones, and who will dethrone him? Will it be 2020 and Greg Bird or Aaron Judge or Gary Sanchez? Someone not yet in the system.

What's the longest any one player has held the plurality of jerseys and jerseys at any team's home games? Jeter has to have had it since the early 2000s and will probably have it for at least the next couple of years, right? This is an interesting question because if you do go to Yankee Stadium, you see Jeter apparel everywhere, obviously. And that has been the case as long as I've been going to Yankee Stadium. And you would think that that would continue to be the case for quite a while for multiple reasons. I mean, one is that the Yankees continue to sell former players stuff forever, and you can go there and see Gehrig jerseys and Ruth jerseys and Mantle jerseys. So if you go there decades from now, you'll still see Jeter jerseys. But there's also the fact that Jeter has Hall of Fame induction coming up in four years or whatever and so he'll be in the

news and he'll still be present and relevant and obviously his continuing coverage at the players tribune will keep him in the national eye and i would i would bet i would bet with greater than 50 confidence that he will be the Yankees manager within nine years. Really? Huh. Yeah. Well, that definitely changes the answer. And then the other thing is that it would be different if the Yankees had Carlos Correa or something. If they had some charismatic young superstar who was going to be the next Jater, then you could maybe project that player overtaking cheater, but they don't really have that person. I mean, I love Greg Bird as much as anyone, but he's not necessarily the sort of guy who makes everyone run out and buy his jersey.

So who knows what'll happen? They could sign someone huge. They could trade for someone. They could have a prospect break out but there's no one right now who looks like the obvious heir to jeter in the jersey category so you don't think that there's any way that for instance like is there is the year that mariana rivera gets inducted for instance does it create even a temporary bump that is enough to offset him? I doubt it. Not offset him, dethrone him? Yeah.

Yeah, you don't think there's any, there's no real way to you that Mariano Rivera becomes a more beloved post-retirement Yankee than Jeter was and slow gains? No, he is more beloved by me than by a lot of people already. I know. That's why I kind of am bringing it up. I think that I'm kind of secretly hoping that that's the case. Right, yeah. So I guess not.

No, I don't think so. I mean, they overlapped their whole careers, and I think Jeter has a huge lead probably in that respect. And I think Jeter has a huge lead probably in that respect. So I doubt the one-year head start Rivera has on the Hall of Fame will change that. So really the only way it can change is if the Yankees do develop or sign or trade for some new guy who's young and just as good and charismatic as cheater or everyone dies who likes cheater and had cheater jerseys which is sort of a sam answer to this question but i yeah i mean in in 40 years are there more cheater or or ruth jerseys it's a good question but i

think probably cheater i don't cheater just seems mean, he wasn't anywhere near as good as Ruth, but he's so much more recent, and in 40 years, you know, odds are he'll still be around. He'll still be going to old-timers games and stuff. So he'll be real to people in a way that Ruth isn't. So I would say still Jeter. And in terms of just admiration for him, I mean, Ruth was a even larger, larger than life figure, but Jeter inspires emotions that maybe Ruth didn't, and maybe is even more likely to inspire Jersey purchases. So the A's, if you go to an a's game the most common jersey

is do you want to guess dave stewart uh it's ricky henderson right and and off the top just just as a guess i would guess that a solid 85 to 90 are retired a's that you've got your jacksons and you've got your fingers and you've got your eckers's and then you've got your Ricky Anderson's and you might even have your Maguires. And so I, let me, just as a guess, you don't know the answer to this, but just as a guess, how many of the 30 teams do you suppose the most common Jersey at the park is somebody who is retired? And let's say even retired and hall of fame, no longer, you no longer you know like retired more than five years more than five years ago

I think very low I would think maybe five really five yeah I mean most teams have someone most teams have a star someone who's been around for a while, and most teams don't have a cheater.

So I think, yeah, I think it would be like a handful of teams. Yeah. I think that the Angels' most common was probably Tim Salmon until Mike Trout came along. But, yeah, I think maybe five. Five might be right. It wouldn't shock me if it were higher, and it wouldn't shock me if it were none other than the A's and the Yankees.

Is Bond still the clear leader for Giants? No, I don't think so, no. I mean, well, you've already got Posey. You see a lot of Lincecums. I don't know if you still do, but you certainly did relatively recently even. And, you know, of course you've got your Bumgarners. And even Bonds, I don't know that Bonds would be the biggest post player. Between Mays, probably it would be Mays over Bonds as like a shirzy.

Although maybe not, I don't know. And it seems like you see a lot of Clarks. I think there's a pretty good percentage of Giants fans that identify mostly as, not mostly as, but identify very strongly as having been there in the 80s when it got really super ugly. And then when the 85 86 87 transition was very much kind of like a royals sort of transition where it went from like just being the worst franchise in

baseball for a you know a decade and then all this youth and all this excitement and they really played up the youth angle at the time and will cl Clark, for those few years, 87, 88, 89, was the best player in baseball. And if you really identify with that transition from joke franchise to professional franchise, Will Clark is your guy. If Jeter were going to be a manager, I mean, that would extend the timeline to another decade or something. I don't really see that happening. I mean, it wouldn't be the craziest thing, but he just seems too big to be a manager. I think he's just too iconic or his aspirations are higher than that. I mean, he's talked about being an owner of a team.

So I don't know that he would want to get back into uniform and answer reporters' questions all day. I mean, Cal Ripken wants to be a manager, right? So you can have that sort of status and want to do that, but I don't know if that's— I mean, didn't Michael Jordan coach? Or am I wrong? I mean, Magic Johnson coached. Yeah, Michael Jordan owned. Did he not ever coach?

I think he owned. I mean, he did own. I don't know if he coached because basketball. All right. Yeah. So, I mean, it doesn't even seem like it would be on the horizon. Maybe I'm overestimating how slow the turnover is. I mean, maybe a kid just buys the jersey of the best player on the team every year. And every year there's someone like, you know, Mark DeShero will still be on the team every year and every year there's someone like you know i mark deshero

will still be on the team next year i don't know if people will buy his jersey but or a rod i don't know if people buy a rod jerseys but you would think that i don't know if you're a kid and you're just becoming a fan you're probably not gonna buy a jeter jersey. You're going to just buy whoever is the closest to Jeter for you, even if it's not anywhere close to Jeter in terms of national notoriety. So maybe I'm overestimating how long it would be. Maybe five, ten years, any player is no longer the most popular. But, man, I would think like 2030 or something uh-huh so Michael Jordan didn't coach but of course there are all these stories of him like being down on the court and like you he was you

get the feeling he was somewhat involved but yeah he wasn't like involved in in that way but he wasn't a coach but Magic Johnson did and and larry bird did and isaiah thomas did and uh i don't know if those i don't know if cross sport comparisons work for this yeah i don't know it would be interesting to see you might be right it does sort of seem like you're right if he doesn't become a manager how long are you guessing well if he i wonder who he would own what would he own like he can't own the yankees can he i don't think so i mean maybe he could be like the magic johnson style face of the ownership group and if yeah and if he i mean if he's an owner then you'd think that would probably contribute

to more jeter jerseys unless he's a terrible owner yeah if he were the owner then it'd be a whole new rush of them yeah because like so let's say he's done though like he he makes his appearances he throws out a first pitch now and then but that's it he'll still be at the very least he'd be like the George Brett of the Yankees where you're like what is his role but he's always there. Yeah. At the very least, he's going to be, look, in a few years. He was so adamant about not being there this year, I think, just because he wanted to sort of make it a clean break

and distance himself a little bit. I don't know how long that lasts and at what point he decides that he wants to come back. I'm sure that'll happen. But I don't know he doesn't strike me as someone who wants to be integrally involved day to day unless he's in a management role but i you know i don't know derrick cheater i know his dog's name now because he wrote about it but that's all i know um i have one last question about this that is necessary to be able to answer this question with any um logic uh do you believe that the majority of jerseys and jerseys

that you see at a average game not at a giveaway day game but at an average game are in fact bought or giveaways from previous games. Bought or giveaways? You mean bought? Are they bought? Like somebody went on the internet or the team store and bought it? Or are they jerseys that were given away at a previous game and that's what people wear now to the park? I would guess bought.

Really? I would guess. I think I would guess bot. Really? I would guess. I think I would guess shirts. I think I would guess giveaway. I think giveaways make up at least 50% plus one of all the named shirts in existence. Yeah, could be. I don't know. When I was little. And you already know that the guys who get those giveaways are the ones who go to the game.

Yes, that's true too. the guys who get those giveaways are the ones who go to the game. Yes, that's true too. When I was little, it's like the, I think I had a giveaway Bernie shirt and I never wore it because it said Williams on the back, unlike actual Yankee things. So I wanted just a number one. But yeah, I don't know. Maybe you're right.

That changes it a little. Although they still, well, they retired his number this year right that happened already it's hard to keep track because they retired so many numbers this year they had passata day and pettit day and all sorts of days and jeter was there for bernie williams day but i don't think his number was retired yet so if there's still a ceremony coming then maybe you get another jeter giveaway that day who knows but anyway i don't know the answer to your question but it is relevant give me a year give me oh i have to i have to give you a year yeah that cheater jerseys will no longer be the the plurality yeah i mean the only competition I see is from Babe Ruth or like Mickey Mantle or something like DiMaggio.

I could see Babe Ruth or DiMaggio or Garrick retaking it, like especially if there was a Scherzi giveaway or five. But yeah, I don't see – there is nobody currently in existence who is any threat for a long time now that said you didn't see mike trout coming on the angels until three years before mike trout was there and so all it takes is one one of these say like one of the guys they signed in last year's j2 signing period to turn into a superstar yeah and then eight years from now it's that guy because there is a bias toward the toward the current so i'll guess uh like uh by 2029 one of those guys would have uh happened so you went one year sooner than i did okay all right play index sure so one of the things that I always knew about baseball is that in extra innings, hitters are swinging for the fences. And that's one of the reasons that sometimes this was what I always knew to be true,

that offense would go down even in extra innings because everybody wants to end it. Everyone wants to hit that walk-off. You'll hear that in one out of every two extra inning games probably. Exactly. And so I wanted to see whether there's actually any discernible shift in strategy or results in extra innings. And so I went to the play index. I went to the team split finder. I selected all major league teams together.

I selected the combined years of 2011 to 2015. And my chosen split was by inning and I looked at all uh each of these innings including uh the grouped extra innings and I looked at home run percentage which is home runs you know per plate appearance and I also looked at run percentage and stolen base percentage and caught stealing percentage and unintentional walk percentage and strikeout percentage and grounded into double plays percentage and hit by pitch percentage and sacrifice hit percentage and sacrifice fly percentage, intentional walk percentage, error percentage, BABIP, and slash line to see whether there's any clear difference. Now, I haven't even really looked at these, so we'll find out together. But the tricky thing, of course, Ben, as you know, is that this is skewed by the pitchers that are in,

right? And there's all sorts of like inning by inning comparisons are always tough because, for instance, you can't compare the first and the second inning without acknowledging that the better hitters are all hitting in the first inning and likely the worst hitters are all hitting in the second inning. So it's not like there's anything that happens to the pitcher in the first or second inning that makes them worse. It's rather the batting order makes them worse. them worse. And in the, once you get past the fifth or sixth, then you have the same issue on the other side because you're getting a select group of pitchers that are chosen for those innings for those times of game. And so the extra innings can't really be compared to, for instance, the third inning where the starter is going. And so just curious, what would you guess, I don't know the answer to this, but what would you guess the quality of pitcher in extra innings is most comparable to?

Well, if we're lumping all extra inning games together, we're obviously including really long games when just the long man is pitching or the mop-up man is pitching. Whereas if you're looking at, say, 10th inning only, maybe you still got your closer in there or something. So there's a pretty big difference. And most games don't go really long. Yeah. And at least the one thing you can say about extra innings is that you are trying to win the entire time. Yes. Whereas in the 7th innings, you're also lumping in all the 11-3 games in the 7th inning,

or the team that's trailing 6-1 in the 7th inning, and is deliberately using their worst pitcher instead of their best available pitcher so yeah yes it's tricky i don't know the answer yeah and you've probably got guys who have not been in there for many innings in most cases and so they don't have the penalty of facing the batter multiple times in the same game that the starter has. So I would say it's probably pretty high quality. I don't know. I'd say it might even be like 7.5 inning.

Okay. Between the 7th and the 8th. That's exactly kind of what I was thinking. I was thinking at first I thought the 8th and then I thought maybe the 7th and whatever. 8th inning guys are pretty good now. It's hard to compare, but I will say this. The number of runs scored per plate appearance is most comparable to the eighth inning. They're almost identical. The eighth inning allows one extra run every thousand plate appearances,

whereas the ninth inning is considerably better it's four four fewer runs per thousand plate appearances than extra innings the seventh inning is much worse it's eight extra runs per thousand plate appearances and all the innings above that are are even higher still like uh more than a run every hundred innings for obvious reasons well there are even temperature effects when you're talking about extra inning night games. It's late and cold. So let's just assume for a second that the total run production being closest to the eighth makes the eighth inning the best inning to compare it to, shall we?

All right. So first, I'm just going to go and look at each of these they're uh stolen bases i'm going to give you the stolen the percentage and you tell or the uh the category and you tell me whether you think there there are more in the eighth or an extra innings okay stolen bases more in extra innings you are correctught stealing success rate, or I don't know how to put this, which innings would have the higher success rate? Yeah, would they have a higher success rate? Eighth inning. Eighth inning is higher, and in fact, strangely enough, eighth inning is the highest success rate in baseball, of all the innings.

The starters are considerably better, which is not surprising, at catching runners. And 7th inning guys and 9th inning guys are also better. Extra innings are very close. Extra innings and 8th inning are the most successful times to try to steal a base. But 8th inning is best. All right. Unintentional walks. Higher?

Higher in extras? It is higher in extras extra innings have the highest walk rate of any inning slightly higher than the first inning which is interesting and way higher than every other like it's a that's one thing is that walks go way up in extra innings unintentional walks all right the way of connection and it's conceivable that that's a um that that's that we'll see the same thing with intentional walks and it will be deliberate. Or it could be that batters are being more patient because they want to get base runners. Or it could be that pitchers are worse. If you want to skip to intentional walks, I'll say the same thing.

Okay. You'll say the same for intentional walks. Intentional walks are four times as high in extra innings as any other inning and 32 times as high as in the first inning and 16 times as high as in the

second inning so yeah intentional walks go way way up so that probably explains the unintentional walks too some of those are probably semi intentional alright strikeout rate so this is maybe where you get into the unintentional walks too some of those are probably semi-intentional yeah all right strike out rate so this is maybe where you get into the idea that guys are trying to hit homers and if they were trying to hit homers then you'd think that they would also strike out more yes that is exactly right i will say that huh i don't know mean, a lot of these times you are also just kind of trying to put the ball in play.

You're just trying to move the runner over because you're playing for one run. And therefore you'd think you'd be more likely to try to make contact and cut down on your swing potentially. So I'm not sure which way it goes, and that's why we're doing this play index segment. So I'm not sure which way it goes, and that's why we're doing this play index segment. So I guess I will say that if there are that many more walks, there are also more strikeouts.

There are fewer strikeouts. All right. All right. Skip grounded into double play percentage because that is too affected by base runners. I'll skip it, but also I'll note that there are fewer double plays in extra innings than any other inning. So I won't make you guess, but I'll tell you. I won't read too much into it.

All right, hit by pitches. Higher in extras. Higher, considerably higher. In fact, almost 25% higher than the eighth. Higher than any other inning. The eighth is the second highest inning, and yet more, you know, 25% increase there. And so, yeah, a huge increase in hit-by-pitches,

which then suggests that all the walks might not be deliberate at all and that these guys just might be wild. Or it could be that they're pitching inside because they don't want to give up a home run, and that's part of the plan is to really jam guys um sacrifice bunts obvious higher way higher yeah like double any other inning and uh almost like more than triple the eighth inning and of course this is without even any pitchers batting all the other innings are skewed by that.

Sacrifice flies don't really change. And reached on an air. Higher. Slightly lower. Pretty close, though. And last one. I guess that makes sense because you'd put defensive replacement. Oh, yeah, you would. Good point.

And the last one I'll ask before we get to the big final question is Babbitt. I'll say Babbitt lower. It's actually higher. It's actually the highest of any inning, and it's 15 points higher than in the eighth. Wow. So we've already established that we have pitchers that are of roughly equal quality to the eighth, and yet Babbitt goes up. And defensive replacements. And yet, Babbitt goes up. And defensive replacements. Exactly.

And we have defensive replacements. And yet we have 15 extra points of Babbitt, which is a big enough finding that this actually probably is worth an article someday. So I'm going to jot this down. I am going to see tickler file. I don't know which category to put this under, but okay. Excerpting Babbitt is there to never be done, but I have claimed it. Put it under the certain to go viral category.

All right, so the last question, this all started with the presumption that home runs or at least home run swings would go up in X-Ratings, generally speaking. Do you think that home runs go up in extra innings, generally speaking? I'm going to say they do not. They do not. It's almost identical to the eighth inning. Now, of course, we can't leave the pitcher's role out of this. They also are trying to avoid the home run just as much. So maybe guys are swinging for home runs and pitchers are counteracting that. Although if that were the case, then you would think that the pitchers would be at a big advantage overall and you'd see offense drop.

But offense doesn't really drop. Offense pretty much stays the same. In fact, if you look at it in extra innings, batting average is higher than the rest of the relief pitcher innings, largely because of the batting, although also the lower strikeout rate. OBP is way higher, largely because of the BABIP, although also the lower strikeout rate. OBP is way higher, largely because of the walks, some of them intentional, some of them unintentional, some of them hit by pitches, and also the higher average. And slugging percentage essentially does not move. Isolated power goes down. Extra innings are a low power environment after

all. All right. So, broadcasters beware Hey Ben Good Play Index or bad Play Index? I'd say excellent Play Index Good, thank you You used to sometimes compliment me on those I was planning to

Oh good, thank you Use the coupon code BP Get the discounted price of $30 On a one year subscription Alright, quick one I like ones where the the coupon code BP, get the discounted price of $30 on a one-year subscription. All right. Quick one. I like ones where the asker answers the question, him or herself, like this one from Paul. How good was the 2015 Blue Jays offense? Top 10 since 1955? Really? Then he sends us a link to a Fangraphs leaderboard of all team offenses since 1955, I guess. And the Blue Jays are ninth on the adjusted weighted runs created plus leaderboard.

So you have supplied your own answer, I suppose. I don't know if we have any reason to disagree with that answer. I don't think I do. So sure. Top 10 since 1955 all right well one thing is that we don't park effects are one of those things that changes after the fact because most most park effects will look at the years before and the years after so the blue jays park factor could still change in the next couple years That's true Retroactively

And I guess it would be more likely to change in a way That would lower the number than raise it Because it's already so high But they're up there I don't have any great reason to disagree With the stats Okay so last one Well I guess if we're ever going to answer

A World Series question This would be the time to do it So, John says The comment on episode 757 About how the Mets led for more innings than the Royals did Despite losing four or five games Put a question in my mind What would the World Series look like

If the format was instead switched to One 63-inning run differential contest Played under the same in-game rules. The first six games are capped at nine full innings, and if the differential is tied in the seventh game, extra innings occur as they otherwise would. Do bench players serve a reduced role? Does a pitcher's hitting ability matter more? When would you use which relievers other than keeping Cliff Pennington off the mound? I'm not sure of how this would change the strategy.

Yeah. I mean, I like to think of this as like if there was a relay race, but instead of a relay race where everybody ran 100 meters, it was like a 400 meter race or however many. Instead of everybody running X meters, that's all the same. You can just run as long as you want. And so then you'd start with your fastest guy, but then it'd become very interesting to wonder, well, how far does he run? Is your fastest guy now run 200 meters and you just kick the last guy out completely? How much faster is he? How much does he tire? I mean, you would, there'd be no, there would be no – there wouldn't essentially be relievers.

There would just be pitchers that you use when they're ready. And so you'd start with your best pitchers, and you'd have the very interesting math question of whether you want that guy to go nine innings and then be back four days later for nine more innings, or if you want him to go two innings and then be back four days later for nine more innings or if you want him to go two innings and then be back the next day and throw two more uh but that would be the primary way it would change and yeah the i it would draw dice and play in that series maybe in the 62nd inning well you i mean it's still a nine inning game so if it were the eighth inning if it were the say where the seventh inning and alex rios batted and made the last out it's still a nine-inning game. So if it were the eighth inning, if it were to say where the seventh inning and Alex Rios batted and made the last out,

it's unlikely Rios will bat again. And so you would still bring Dyson in for a defensive replacement, leveraging the fact that there are more defensive plays for that position in the lineup than there are likely to be offensive plays. And certainly if Rios singled with two outs, then you could even get more

by having Dyson pinch run for him and then stay in so yeah dyson would still play uh-huh would ralph mondesi jr still play i don't know why he played as it was but do you hey let me ask you do you uh i'm gonna i new morality question uh a part of me hopes that ralph mondesi jr uh i mean this is awful never plays again never plays again that at least in the major person it does yes okay does it matter how he never plays again like if he got if he just wins the lotto decided doesn't feel like it uh-huh then that's all right what about just goes to double a and is terrible and never gets another promotion that still makes you a bad person okay

okay i think you're right it wouldn't you know it's not the thing is that it wouldn't be cool enough like it's not a cool enough unusual event to justify rooting for somebody's deep, deep disappointment. It's not like I would feel a moment of interest that that thing had happened a couple times in my life. And like at some point 23 years from now, I'd be like, oh yeah, Raul Mondesi. That was an interesting thing that happened once and then i'd move on like it's not like i'm cashing checks off of this probably get an article out of it like 30 years later someone would someone follow up with him ask him about it yeah and but even that wouldn't be that great i mean it's not someone would probably do that

every year yeah like that guy that we talked about who played the day after he signed as a high school draft pick. Yeah, when he was 16 and then never played again. Yeah. Like, that's just as interesting. And I got a play index out of it. And that's it. Like, I'm not happy that that happened to him.

I feel bad that that happened to him. And so, yeah, I'm now officially rooting for realm and i'm actually disappointed to play a game again i'm disappointed in everybody else yeah you guys are all rotten for rooting against him i'm good all right any other aspects to this question no okay so please send us more questionsenish the mailbag at podcast at baseball perspectives.com, particularly in the off season when we sometimes struggle to find things to say about baseball. It's always nice to have questions to fall back on. We need to do an email show.

So you can also join our Facebook group at facebook.com slash groups slash effectively wild and rate and review and subscribe to the show on iTunes. And we will be back with more.