Effectively Wild: A FanGraphs Baseball Podcast - Effectively Wild Episode 83: Astros vs. Marlins in 2013/The Next Farewell Tour/Yasmani Grandal’s Suspension/Mark Trumbo, Center Fielder

Episode Date: November 15, 2012

Ben and Sam answer listener emails about whether the Marlins or Astros will win more games in 2013, who’ll be the next retiring player to get the Chipper Jones treatment, when Yasmani Grandal will play for the Padres, and how the Angels should align their outfielders.

Must be Thursday. Could never get the hang of Thursdays. Good morning. Welcome to episode 82 of Effectively Wild. 83. No. Yes. Thursday.

That's right, because it's Wednesday, but we're celebrating on Thursday. Right. All right, so this is episode 83 of Effectively Wild, the daily podcast for Baseball Perspectives. This is the long-awaited Email Wednesday episode on Thursday. So we've got a few questions that we're going to answer. We thank you very much for all the ideas that we got, some of which we'll use, some of which we won't because this is a 14 to 22 minute

show, but some very fun ones, and so we'll do them. So I'm going to start with the one that we just got a few minutes ago, actually, because it's so timely. James, friend of the show, James, you're all friends of our show, friend of the show, James, writes, hello. In the wake of the big trade, there's an obvious question. Who will win more games in 2013, the Marlins or the Astros? James lays out some of his reasoning, which is that, well, he goes through some numbers. The Marlins had a 14-game head start on the Astros, but the Marlins have done a lot more work to get worse this offseason. And the Astros are also changing divisions in a most disadvantageous way. So he decides that the Marlins will win more in 2013, but it is a close call. Ben,

who will win more games in 2013? I agree that it's a close call, but I think I'll go the other way. I think I'll go with the Astros. If anything, because I'm not sure the Marlins are even done yet, maybe they might sell one or two of their remaining one or two players. I don't know. I think it will be players. I don't know. I think it will be close. I don't expect the Astros to take a huge step forward or anything, and the change to the AL will not help them. But I think they will pull it off by a couple wins.

The Astros had eight league average or better hitters last year. Minimum 250 plate appearances. That's eight! That's a ton! I can't believe it. I think that probably an underrated aspect of this calculus is that the

Marlins actually didn't just they traded a bunch of guys before, you know, during the season, before the trade deadline. And so to say that they were a 69-win team last year perhaps probably greatly overestimates how good they were after the trade deadline, at which point they had no Hanley Ramirez, Anibal Sanchez, Omar Infante, Edward Mujica, or Randy Choate. They went 22-47, which is a 318 winning percentage, which over the course of a full season works out to 51.5 wins, which is actually 3.5 wins below what the Astros did. Of course, the Astros traded Carlos Lee and Wandy Rodriguez. So it's not as though they were standing still.

But the Marlins were really horrifyingly bad in the second half. And it is, I think, kind of an underrated quirk of history that the Marlins were a good team. I mean, they were in first place up to a certain point in June. They were, I think, one game under.500 as recently as mid-July. And so it actually is the case that if they had had a good week in there, everything could have gone differently and none of this would have happened. And we could be talking right now about Jeffrey Loria, well, I guess he wouldn't be the executive of the year, but we could be praising him for how aggressively he is engaged in baseball's economy and how he turned around baseball

in Florida and all that. Yes, he wouldn't be being burned in effigy probably. He wouldn't be being burned in effigy. And it was darn close to being a success story. So it's just, you know, big things happen because of kind of small moments in history. And the Marlins' small moment of history was like July. Well, actually at the All-Star break. Oh, no, I'm sorry.

Two days before the All-Star break. No, I'm sorry. Two days before the All-Star break. They were one game under.500. But now that that moment of history is over... They're bad. Are you also picking the Astros for next season? Well, I'm appreciative that James reminded me that the Astros are changing leagues because I had forgotten again.

I don't think we'll really internalize that until we actually see them playing in the ALS, probably. I mean, the Marlins, I don't know. I... Oh, gosh. Yeah, I guess I still think the Marlins are probably a better team. Yeah, I think the Marlins are a better team. So I will also...

I mean, I don't think that the Marlins are really a 3-18 winning percentage, or were during the second half last year. And, I mean, obviously they've gotten worse, but I think I would probably rather have that team. Probably, but boy, I don't even know what that team is. I mean, there's the front office factor. Not that the Marlins' front office has done a bad job, I don't even know what that team is. I mean, there's the front office factor. Not that the Marlins' front office has done a bad job, I don't think. I mean, they've done maybe a very good job coping with the limitations that they've had.

But I guess the Astros' front office gives you or gives me some confidence that they will take fairly quick steps forward, possibly. Well, if they, I if they I wouldn't say that not 2013 yeah that's what we're talking about it's not their goal to be it's not their goal to win even one more game than they have to in 2013

I don't think and so I don't know I guess I'm not as up to date on the state of their AAA rosters as I could be but I don't know I've changed my'm not as up-to-date on the state of their AAA rosters as I could be. But I don't know. I've changed my mind. I'm going back to the Astros. Okay. It's going to be close, though, and that is an excellent question. Is Steve Ciszek likely to be traded at this point, do you think? I really don't know. Yeah, I don't know.

Gammons tweeted something about him earlier and how he's going to be good but i didn't see if he said he was on the block or anything i would think ricky nolasco will be traded yeah um well certainly or just i mean is he under contract yes he is under contract um under most of the marlins' contract for next year. Yeah. He's not a non-tender guy, though. He is signed, is what we're saying. All right.

So we are inconclusive, but I think we're both saying the Astros will win more games in 2013. All right. Well, that's one down. We've answered a question. All right. Well, that's one down. We've answered a question. All right. A friend of the show, Saxon, writes, my question is in regards to Yasmany Grandal's 50-game suspension. I'm curious what you guys feel is the timeframe for his return after the 50 games, I ask, because a similar issue came up during this season in regards to Melky Cabrera. The Giants had the option to bring back Cabrera, but chose not to, with Bochy saying something to the effect that Cabrera wouldn't be in form after a lengthy suspension. I think that the big difference there is that there were no games that Cabrera could play himself into game shape with.

I think it is an interesting question, though. I mean, we talked earlier on this show about, who was it that did the thing? Mike Farron. Yes, there you go. Who looked at players who had missed lengthy periods of time due to injury and found, surprisingly to both of us, that they actually are considerably worse in their first few games back than they normally would be. And it would be interesting to see, to break that down further into guys who were coming back from injury and guys who were not.

And also whether the length of a rehab stint changes that. the length of a rehab stint changes that because some guys really speed up the rehab stint and they play two games in the California League and then they're back while other guys spend three weeks there really getting into playing shape. And I would imagine that's a big difference, but I don't really know how well single A ball can mimic Major League Baseball. Probably pretty well. So Saxon's asking if you are allowed to do that and you are right you can do a rehab assignment before you are reinstated

and so you can come back having had some uh playing time at least i believe that's the case i don't think that's what he was asking i think he wanted to know can suspended ball players technically practice outside of the team during suspension i i i want to clarify he said also comma can suspended ball players which to me says that that question is outside of the first question this is an independent secondary question but it is relevant because if you can't rehab during that 50 games, then you have to play some rehab games after the 50 games. Whereas if he can do the rehab before he's reinstated, then technically he could come back right after. And I would expect him to come back right after either, I guess it would be at the end of May or the beginning of June.

You know, he's a catcher, and most catchers will, especially at his age, would only catch maybe 90 to 110 games a season anyway. And I wonder whether the sort of limitations on a catcher's stamina are only on the day in, day out, like you can't catch four games in a row without getting tired or whatever. Or if it's more about the seasonal total. And I wonder if he could actually cram 90 games into the final 110, and if that would be essentially the same as catching 110 over the course of a 110 over the course of, of a full season, if it's,

if it's really the cumulative effects of a full season that really affect a catcher in, and if it were the case that he could catch almost every day after that, you could almost maybe say that a catcher is, is like when a pitcher gets suspended, uh, for, you know, for, it has to be for at least six games before it starts to affect him. I wonder if this suspension will not affect Grondahl and the Padres particularly much if he's lively for the rest of the year. Well, now you have an article topic for next May 30th or so.

Yeah, remind me. Okay. All right. Okay, so you wrote, I'm going find the question while i um murmur things you wrote about chipper jones farewell tour and all the gifts that he got uh he did not retweet you i'm sad to say i checked before the show he did just before we came on uh tweet four times about what a crock the um official story about the jfk assassination is so uh that was interesting but um uh james friend of the show asks uh i was thinking about chipper jones farewell tour this season with all the

retirement gifts bestowed upon him. Who do you think will be the next player to experience this? And that's a really good question. And I also wonder, do you know? You don't. I'm going to ask, but you don't know. Do you know if there's any history to this, if this is something that just happens for all great Hall of Famers? Because it feels kind of weird to me that

um the angels did a thing with jeter when he got his 3000th hit and when they announced that they were going to do something there was quite a lot of protest among fans who thought that it was nuts to honor your opponent right as i as i was researching the chipper story and looking up all the GIFs and everything, I kept coming across posts on the team blogs for every team that he was playing, basically protesting the fact that their team was honoring him after he had hit so well against them for so many years. It does feel weird. I mean, does he need that? I mean, who is it for, right? I mean, the crowd isn't into it. I can't imagine the crowd isn't into it i can't imagine the crowd isn't good at all with jeter with jeter they actually did it in the uh like they did it in

the tunnel underneath the stadium before the game and then they kind of quietly flashed a pitch a picture of him accepting his gift on the scoreboard and like a congratulations jeter and it was like one of those really fast like subliminal messages that you know you kind of absorbed without realizing it so I don't think it is for the fans Jeter gets booed in opposing parks I mean I guess Chipper does too I don't know he certainly does in New York I don't know whether he does elsewhere but uh from what I saw I saw some when they would run scoreboard scoreboard tributes to him It seemed like the fans were somewhat into that. But no, I don't know if there is any history. I'm sure there's some precedent for it,

but I don't recall at least any farewell tour that was quite as obsessively detailed as Chippers was. I kind of hope it doesn't happen again, because if it does, I'll feel like I need to write another story about it. But I don't know. I looked at some of the possibilities in the next few years, and it doesn't seem... I guess you kind of need a perfect storm of a player

who is really like an inner circle Hall of fame type one of the best who has ever played at his position uh who kind of commends the respect of every fan if not necessarily the i mean the affection but um and i guess the fact that chipper was with one team uh for so long had something to do with it also probably and and you need a player who is somewhat well-liked. Do you want to read something? You also need a player who has announced his retirement in advance. Yes, that too. Which is sort of a tricky thing.

And you kind of – I don't know if you definitely need this, but you kind of need a player who's good enough that his final year isn't sort of embarrassing. Yes. So, like, I think Mariano Rivera is the best candidate. Yeah. I think that, well, there are very few players who may get this long into their career without becoming disliked. without becoming disliked. Public likability is kind of like defensive ability, where the aging curve is starting around age 22. It's just a straight decline. I think that most players,

there's a sort of tension that fans have with them by the time they're in their 30s. But Rivera is liked by just about everybody. And he's played, I don't know, maybe he's played in so many World Series as well that he's actually got some pretty deep history with a lot of teams in both leagues and so that probably helps a little bit um and uh i i don't know i i don't know if he's likely to announce his retirement in advance yeah uh or not but i think that i i mean i would i would cheer for him he's he's a guy i would cheer for i think tommy is a guy who is yes beloved by everybody that's who i was going to mention that was my top candidate i I guess. But people don't really see – I think the average fan doesn't see him as an inner circle Hall of Famer.

I think the average fan – And I don't know that he is to the extent that Chipper was. But, I mean, I certainly think he should be in easily. But, yes, you're right. I don't think he has the same perception. I have way more memories of Chipper Jones than I do of Jim Tomey. I love Jim Tomey. He's the greatest thing ever.

But, honestly, if you, like, asked me to name my top three Jim Tomey memories, like, two of them would involve John Boyce. Yes. And the third one would be Ace. Thelma Young reacting to a run that Jim Tomei hit. That would be my top Jim Tomei. Yeah, that's not exactly what they're going to put on his Hall of Fame plaque. Like, hit a home run that Delman Young reacted to. So, I don't know.

I don't know that Tomei gets big cheers across baseball the way that maybe Ch chipper jones did although i don't know chipper jones did um so yeah i don't know i mean each row is kind of a um well james mentioned a few he said if marianne rivera comes back next season he'll probably get the league-wide send off and i expect derrick jeter will uh if he announces his retirement early and he's still a yankee i don't know that that the fact that he's still a Yankee necessarily matters, that maybe it does. I don't know. I could see him getting it regardless.

And then he went on, aside from that, who are the likely suspects? A-Rod isn't really liked. Itro's departure from the Mariners makes a farewell tour for him somewhat awkward. Pujols will have to achieve great things in Anaheim to merit one from his American League rivals. Eddie stayed with the Cardinals. It would have been a no-brainer. I guess I generally agree with that.

I don't know that it's so much the being with one team. That's probably a factor. Well, Griffey went out without this, right? I mean, I don't remember Griffey getting any of this. I guess so. Griffey was just so bad by that point. As you said, that's a consideration too. There will be – well, I just Googled Griffey Jr. farewell tour and the first result is there will be no farewell tour.

So apparently there was no farewell tour. Okay. He just announced he farewell tour. So apparently there was no farewell tour. Okay. He just announced he was done. So, yeah. Well, yeah, he retired unexpectedly. Yeah, like in the middle of the season. Yeah. Did Ripken get a farewell tour?

He must have. I think if anyone did. I don't know if, like, is Halliday a possibility? I don't know if he has that kind of currency with fans. Yeah, he's not beloved. He's certainly not disliked, but he's just not beloved. Oh, fans have saluted Ripken at each stop of his farewell tour. Interesting. I wonder if it's too long ago to find out what all the gifts he got were. Interesting. I wonder if it's too long ago to find out what all the gifts you got were. All right. Last question I think that we'll do tonight is my very favorite one.

It is from another person named James, who is also a friend of the show, but is a different James. And he says, the Angels have said their outfield will be Trumbo, Borges, and Trout next year given that they have two amazing ground covering outfielders does it make any sense to play Trumbo in center and have Borges and Trout play the corners with huge shades toward center field with a huge shade toward center field this is the just obviously this is the best idea because it's totally unconventional and the other defenders is mostly, I think, back. I think that the reason the center fielder has so much room to cover is because the wall is 50 feet further back. And so it's not really left to right, I think, where the center fielder's range comes most into play. I think it's in and out. right, I think, where the center fielder's range comes most into play. I think it's in and out.

And Trumbo is not the best at going in, and he's not the best at going out. I will say, though, that it is the case that if they have Trumbo in left, theoretically, they should be able to play Borges well over into that gap and have Trout play a bit more off the line, knowing that they're going to cover all that ground. But I don't know that teams do that as much as you would think they would. I remember when Borges first came up and there was all the talk around the Angels about his range. There was a game that they were playing with Borges in center field and the next day they had Vernon Wells in center field and so I set up a camera and I took pictures for every batter to see where the Angels were playing each batter when Borges was in center field and where they were playing each batter when Wells was in center field because I wanted to see if the left fielder and the right fielder played

further away from center when Borges was in there, knowing that he could cover as much ground as he does. And they actually didn't play him any differently at all. And I didn't really go anywhere with that idea, and so I didn't ever ask the Angels about that. But it seems to me that the sort of impression that I get, or my hypothesis about that, is that essentially you have your scouting report of where the guys hit the ball and you're going to play you're going to that's going to dictate the shading and there's probably not quite as much overlap among players that um that it becomes a real factor in where you position maybe there should be and maybe there is a little maybe there should be more um but i think that mainly the idea is that is that you just go to where the ball is going to be. And so wherever you think the ball is going to be, that's kind of where you bunch guys a little bit more.

Yeah. I generally agree with you, and I hate to say it because I would love to see Trumbo playing center field next season. Oh, imagine his defensive metrics. centerfield next season. Oh, imagine his defensive metrics. Especially because if the idea is that he's there because Trout and Borgess are going to come over and catch everything, he could actually be a centerfielder who catches like 65 balls all year. That would be the best.

Well, he could actually challenge his negative 100 UZR at third base. Right. I wonder if there's any park where it would make more sense than others. Well, I'm certainly... Like the MTV Rock and Jock softball game, I think. Probably covered center field there. Uh-huh. Right. I don't know.

Like a park with a ton of foul territory or just a giant outfield. Maybe it would make more sense, but... I'm imagining designing the park that would fit Trumbo in Centerfield, and it is a very fun-looking park. It would just be the shallowest in center field. It would be like 320 to dead center. Yeah, no, it would be the shape of like a soup bowl or something, you know. I like that idea a lot. All right. Okay, well, that's our email Wednesday show. We'll be back tomorrow with episode 84 of Effectively Wild.

And you have one week, you actually have six days to get in the next round of emails at podcasts at baseball perspectives.com podcast, plural or singular, singular, singular. Thank you, Ben.

All right. I'll talk to you tomorrow. Okay.