Effectively Wild: A FanGraphs Baseball Podcast - Effectively Wild Episode 958: Jose Fernandez and the Hall of Fame

Episode Date: September 26, 2016

Ben and Sam talk about whether adding the late Jose Fernandez to the Hall of Fame ballot would be a fitting way to honor his superlative but tragically brief career.

It was a sad day, a bad day, a sad day, a bad day. Good morning and welcome to episode 958 of Effectively Wild, the daily podcast from Baseball Perspectives, brought to you by The Play Index, BaseballReference.com, and our supporters on Patreon. I'm Sam Miller, along with Ben Lindberg of The Ringer. Hello, Ben. Hello. So you wrote about the way that you found out about Jose Fernandez. And I had a very similar experience. And looking at your mentions,

it looks like a lot of us had that experience where on Sunday morning, we got a message. The message was vague, and you had to process what it could be. The message I got was, geez, Jose Fernandez, I was in church. I couldn't look anything up. And I thought to myself, as I sat there that either he had nine strikeouts through three innings, right? Or he needed a second Tommy John or the unthinkable. And as I sat there, I just was in dread. And it was a terrible day for everybody because either you found out about it in one second, or you had it, you had this feeling of uncertainty while you waited to find out the news. And it turned out to be the worst thing that really could happen in baseball. And so we're going to talk about Jose Fernandez, but

I mean, really, there's just been so much amazing writing about him, about his career, about his personality, about the way he played, the way he lived, and the way we all felt watching him do those two things. And there's not much left for us to say about what an amazing gift he was to baseball. And so I don't think we'll focus on that. I think that there's so much good writing that I would just encourage everybody to really avail yourself of it and to think about what he means to you. But there's one specific thing that I would like to talk about, if I may. And it's this. You have to be an active major leaguer for 10 years to be on the Hall of

Fame ballot, which means you have to play for 10 years before anybody is allowed to vote on whether you are a Hall of Famer or not. And I think that Jose Fernandez deserves to be on the ballot, and I'm going to make that case. I'm not necessarily saying that I think Jose Fernandez deserves to have a vote, but it's my belief that Hall of Famers are defined by 75% of people voting for them. That is the only definition by which a player becomes a Hall of Famer. And you cannot have a chance to clear that hurdle unless you are on the ballot. The rules say that Jose Fernandez cannot be on that ballot. I think that Jose Fernandez deserves to be on that ballot. So first of all, is that absurd? I don't think so. You're definitely not the first to have brought it up. And sadly, we were talking

about this hypothetical not very long ago, right? We were talking about it in relation to Trout and Kershaw and what would happen if their careers suddenly ended. And we thought that they should both be in and Fernandez is just the tiniest step down from those guys in terms of greatness. Obviously, he didn't have a chance to do it quite as long as either, especially Kershaw. So, you know, the only argument for not putting him on there is just kind of a strictly rules-based, you have to have 10 years. He didn't have 10 years.

He didn't even have half of 10 years, obviously, you know, for circumstances that had nothing to do with his playing. And his playing was Hall of Fame caliber, absolutely. He was the second best pitcher in baseball from the day he started pitching in the major leagues, basically. So just on a performance basis, he was perfectly deserving. If he had kept up what he had done for 10 years, then no one would bat an eye. So it just comes down to whether you want to waive the rules for

someone in there there have been instances like you know what when when luke gary got in there was no waiting period that right clemente maybe that that kind of thing yeah so often when there's some sort of tragedy you say well you you don't want to make an emotional decision and then you regret it later or something, but, you know, whatever. It's the Baseball Hall of Fame. Like, what's the worst case scenario is you look back in 50 years and Jose Fernandez is in the Hall of Fame. That's not the worst thing. So it's not like, you know, this is one of those ultra serious cases where you have to wait before acting or whatever, but you're not saying, you know, do it tomorrow. You're just saying the normal process, but waiving the usual

eligibility requirements. So your question was, is it crazy? No, it's not crazy. Yeah. And so the eligibility requirements, I guess I have come here somewhat underprepared because I have not looked into what the history of the eligibility requirements are or why they exist. From a very one simple explanation, probably the explanation is simply that they decided that you needed some way to filter out undeserving players so that you could have a manageable ballot and really help the voters focus on those players who, you know, who met a minimum bar of credibility. It is possible, though, that when this eligibility requirement was created, that it had something to do with the context of the time, that maybe it was some, I don't know, some nod to the fact that there were a lot of really independent but high-level minor leagues, and maybe players' careers were uh maybe there was

a feeling that like you know you didn't want to reward players who were playing in um you know the pacific coast league for those years and i i mean i'm just spitballing i have no idea but maybe there was something about that time period where it made sense but really the basic i mean if if there is a philosophical reason for preventing people who have not spent 10 years in the majors, I would think that it would come down to the idea that, well, they could have spent 10 years in the majors. You shouldn't, you know, if they quit early, that's on them. If they were injured, if something happened to them that made it so that they were no longer able to perform at a high level, well, that is, we treat health as a skill and as a means of production. only possible, unfortunately, it was the only way that his career could go. He came up, he performed at as high a level as a major leaguer could really ever be expected to. And then because of, you know,

the cruelty of the world and of our frail bodies, that was taken from him. Uh, and there was, there's really no way that you could say, well, uh, in any way, Jose Fernandez failed to live up to the maximum expectations that God or fate or physics put him on this earth for. And there's no, there's no unfulfilled potential that he was in control of. Uh, and so, And so it just feels like philosophically any reason that you would have for a 10-year minimum to simply be allowed to be voted on is irrelevant for him and unjust. Yeah, it's not, the Hall of Fame rule is not like a test of your survival skills or something.

I mean, in a sports sense, in an athletic sense, it is, but you're not being rewarded for your ability to live long enough to make it. You're being rewarded for your ability to play baseball at a really high level for a long time. And he is not able to do that for non-baseball reasons. And I think he is unique in the history of baseball players who have been killed in the middle of their career. I think there are many equally sad and distressing cases, but I think he is different from the Nick Adenhart and Oscar Tavares kind of tragedy in that those guys were very promising, but they were just embarking on big league careers.

They were just starting to establish themselves, which in a sense made it all the more sad. But you wouldn't look at them and say Hall of Famer because they hadn't showed that ability yet, even though they perhaps had it in them. yet, even though they perhaps had it in them. And then there is the group of guys who were killed, you know, later on in their careers, toward the tail end of their careers, Clemente or, or Gehrig, or even Thurman Munson, who was in his 30s. I was on Hang Up and Listen today, and we were talking about this. And Mike Peska and I were saying that, you know, he's, he's probably the, I guess the, you know, if you were looking at the history of baseball players who had been killed, just, you know, was killed the year after a Rookie of the Year award win. But looking back at Ken Hubbs' stats at the time, not to desecrate the memory of Ken Hubbs, but he had a 70 OPS+. So I don't know that he would have attained the levels that Fernandez has already attained.

So that was the key. He was already pitching at an elite Hall of Fame level and was still so young that there was just no real ceiling to what he could conceivably accomplish. I think that's, yeah, that's exactly right. And really the reason that I started thinking about this question and whether it made sense is really that, Thinking about this question and whether it made sense is really that. So I was thinking that there are when something this awful happens, there are three big things that our brains tend to focus on. Three really like deep sadnesses that we tend to focus on.

is that it is just a reminder of how fragile life is and how unexpectedly tragedy happens and how even the seemingly most healthy and strong among us can disappear so quickly. And that is a very hard thing for any of us to keep in mind every day. And when it is reminded to us,'s it's awful and we struggle with that that is true in this case the second thing is that it is obviously an incredible loss for an actual person and his family it is a tragedy for everybody who knows Fernandez in the way that it would be if you know your best friend at work were to die today and that is true of Jose Fernandez in the way that it would be if your best friend at work were to die today. And that is true of Jose Fernandez. And the third way is that we tend to really regret the loss of that person's production. So it's easy to say, well, Jose Fernandez, he might have

won 300 games. He might have been one of the great pitchers of all time. And I think it's really important that with Fernandez, we don't think of it that way because Fernandez was one of the greatest pitchers of all time. There was no unfulfilled potential. We got to see one of the greatest pitchers of all time. I mean, arguably by stuff, by aesthetics, by dominance, maybe one of the five greatest of all time. And it happened. It happened and we got to watch it. It's real. It's in the books. And I think that we should be, I mean, we are, I think everybody is generally grateful that we got to see that. But instead of being especially sad that there are games that Jose Fernandez will not start, and there is a career that Jose Fernandez will not have, there is a career that Jose Fernandez

will not have it rather we should recognize and be grateful for the games that he did start the incredibly high level that they were at and the incredible career that he did have even if it was short and Jose Fernandez like you say he didn't just perform at a good level he wasn't a prospect you know he wasn't only a prospect he wasn't only a prospect. He wasn't only a good pitcher. He wasn't only coming into his own. He was maybe the greatest 20-year-old pitcher who ever pitched. If he's not the greatest, he's in the top five. He's fifth all-time in war at age 20. And of course, the innings, the way that pitchers are used these days, would not be a benefit to him for war. If you look at ERA+, he's the second best 20-year-old season of all time. I mean, it's basically Dwight Gooden and then arguably Jose Fernandez. You can make a

case for a couple of other guys. If you look at his career through age 23, he's 20th all time in war with a Tommy John surgery in there. Like he missed an entire year and he is still the 20th greatest pitcher ever through age 23. And again, that's the sort of thing where even if he'd been healthy, he would have been at a disadvantage because of the way that young pitchers don't get to collect as many innings. But he has the greatest ERA plus ever through age 23. It's not even close his era plus is 150 the next best is 139 unless i guess if you go down to herb score then herb score has it has a better i mean there are there are people with a lot with a lot fewer innings than him who get there but he's you know he's there he's up there and if you look at him before and after his tommy john you could basically say he had two full seasons of major

league starters workload. Like if you combine 13 and 14, combine 15 and 16, and he basically had two Cy Young seasons. He leads all of the National League in pitcher warp this year. He was a very credible Cy Young candidate this year. He would have, I on friday was asked who i would vote for and i said kershaw or fernandez and uh so there's just i guess that's just a way of saying that he was he was fully fully developed uh and you don't have to project to get him to hall of fame level he is already there yeah i cited the stat in my article that just in war per inning pitched he is third all-time behind pedro martinez and clayton kershaw and of course he had been able to complete his career and gone through the usual aging process that most pitchers do and lost speed

off his fastball and all that sort of thing then maybe he wouldn't have ended up that high on the leaderboard. But he did. So, you know, for the time he was on the mound, he was as good as all but, you know, like maybe two other people in the entirety of their careers. So, yeah, I completely agree. And I don't know. I mean, I don't think it, uh, the, the danger of putting him in the hall of fame, you know, like what would be the danger? Like, you know, some, I mean, first of all, danger, who cares? It's a baseball museum, but especially because, I mean, especially because if there's one thing that Jose Fernandez death has reminded all of us in the last 24 hours, it is that none of this matters in relative to the actual

matters of living life. And so if the sport itself doesn't matter, then certainly the museum that rewards some of those players for being extra cool matters even less. Yeah, right. Of course, you know, people do really care about the Hall of Fame. It means a lot to people because baseball means a lot to people. And so in that sense sports matter and so you don't want to keep in the hall of fame or the honor of getting in but i don't think that this would you know it's not like other people would suddenly start slipping

in because jose fernandez was in lowering the standards or something you You know, it's not like there would be many analogous cases to this. This is unique. So the value to it, I think, is that, I mean, ultimately, it doesn't, you know, help Jose Fernandez if he's in the Hall of Fame or not. Unfortunately, he is beyond help in that sense, but in the sense that people want to preserve his memory and remind people how great he was. And that is, I guess, the danger of this, even if we didn't really, even if he didn't, you know, leave anything undone in that he was great from day one, he would be forgotten more quickly because he didn't do it over such a long period and people come along and they sort the the war leaderboard and jose fernandez will not be anywhere near the top and

so a future generation might not mention him as among the best pitchers ever even though during his time in the game he was so that would be the advantage i I guess, of putting him in. Aside from, I don't know, any consolation it might give his loved ones, it would help keep his memory alive in a way that it probably deserves to be preserved. So if people put Jose Fernandez in the Hall of Fame, I would really have no objection to that. to that yeah you you compared him or i guess in one sentence you compared him to buddy holly and james dean yeah but uh in a in a way baseball i feel like it's so different than in creative arts where in a way in the creative arts dying young is this is going to sound macabre but great for your legacy right uh like dan burn has this song called too old to die young. And it's all about how, you know, he's too old to die young.

Right. Sure. All the 27 year old rock stars who died and they have their own, you know, it's like a club that I don't know if anyone wants to belong to, but if you were in that group, you, you always get mentioned because you know, you're young forever and no one ever got to see you grow

old and that kind of thing yeah and i just don't think that there's anything comparable at all in baseball to that i don't i think you're right that jose fernandez it should be right like if we don't get to see a player decline you you know we remember him being the best he ever was you'd think the same principle would apply i don't know what the difference is why why doesn't why isn't that the case maybe there just aren't as many examples of it happening but yeah i don't know the tyranny of the career milestones and yeah that's yeah maybe so yeah i don't know it is a good question yeah i'm not sure you also just don't have as many i mean you don't have as many chances to be seen. Um, there, Jose Fernandez will, you know, never pitch in the world series in front of, you know, 22 million people. So I

don't know, maybe, maybe to maybe baseball is just too niche for that right now. I mean, it, there, there is a way that like, I mean, I know Rocky Calavito probably a lot more because of his tragic decline. But, yeah, I don't know. Maybe it's just because, at least in the past, it was harder to preserve a player's output in a way that could be appreciated by future generations. Like a movie star is in movies, and anyone can watch the movie and see the movie star. And anyone can listen to the albums that the musician made, and it sounds the same as it did when he was making them or she was making them. Whereas with a baseball player, for most of baseball history, I mean, you brought up Herb

Score earlier in this episode. So, you know, we don't really get to see Herb Score. We can look at his baseball reference stats and say they were great. And we can maybe look at some black and white grainy footage from a weird angle and, you know, see him throwing a ball or something, but it's hard to appreciate him in the same way that someone who was there at the time and saw him pitch did. And I guess the positive takeaway would be that that's no longer the case,

that everything Jose Fernandez did on a baseball field is preserved forever in high definition and in a million gifts that can be shared forever and ever. And so in that sense, you know, people will always be able to see what he did and the highlights of his career will look the same as everyone else's highlights and you know that's i guess a good thing in that it might be harder for him to be forgotten just because you can watch him and with fernandez just you know watching a single start of his or just an inning of his you could really appreciate why he was so great which was another thing that i would brought up on hang up and listen like we've talked in the past about how clayton kershaw is kind of deceptively not elite looking or you know you could watch a single Clayton Kershaw start and not think this guy is one of the best pitchers ever and already had a last year we yeah it's the same with right you have to appreciate him over a longer period whereas

Fernandez you could watch one start and you know see all his pitches and the way that they moved and how fast they were and how he could mix them and everything. And you could say, oh, yeah, obviously this guy is one of the best pitchers in baseball. If Jose Fernandez had come onto the mound to pitch and you didn't know his name, you didn't know his jersey, you know, you didn't know anything about him, you didn't know who he was, and you didn't have a a radar gun how many pitches before you would confidently say he was an above average major leaguer well i mean one probably quite possibly through a 99 mile per hour fastball or something as a starter then that would be a pretty good clue if he you know broke off one great curve or slider or whatever that that would be a pretty good indication so yeah yeah i think within four for sure even you and i yeah would would be able to say yeah that he's

great yeah right all right well i think we should let that let that all speak for itself and let it stand all right so we will leave it there You can support the podcast on Patreon by going to patreon.com slash effectively wild. Five listeners who have already done so. Randy Sabia, Jacob Mooney, Alex Nazer, Nicholas Shaw, and John Presser. Thank you. You can buy our book, The Only Rule Is It Has To Work, our wild experiment building a new kind of baseball team. Go to the website at theonlyrulesithastowork.com for more information. You can join our Facebook group at facebook.com slash groups slash effectively wild, and you can rate and review and subscribe

to the podcast on iTunes. Get the discounted price of $30 on a one-year subscription to the Play Index at baseballreference.com. Use the coupon code VP when you subscribe, and you can email me and Sam at podcastatbaseballperspectives.com or by messaging us through Patreon. We'll take your emails next time. So please send us some questions. We'll talk to you later in the week. want to but you're too soon gone too soon gone

too soon gone too soon gone