Effectively Wild: A FanGraphs Baseball Podcast - Effectively Wild Episode 97: Why Couldn’t Koji Uehara Get a Bigger Contract?

Episode Date: December 7, 2012

Ben and Sam discuss Koji Uehara’s signing with the Red Sox and attempt to figure out why he doesn’t make more money and high-leverage appearances.

Good morning and welcome to episode 97 of Effectively Wild, the Baseball Prospectus Daily Podcast. In New York, New York, I am Ben Lindberg and in Long Beach, California in the Honda Fit, joining me is Sam Miller. Hello, Sam. Hello. This is our last show of the week, and we are going to do one topic, and Sam has selected that topic.

So what have you brought us today? My topic is Koji Uyara. I suspected as much when I saw you tweeting about him. I wanted to tweet at you to save it for the podcast. Ah, yes. Well, it's – yeah, no, we'll talk about Koji Uehara. Okay. Is that how you would pronounce it, Koji Uehara?

Yeah, sure. Is that how you would pronounce it? Koji Uehara? Yeah, sure. One of the weird things about doing what we do is that you spend all your life with baseball players, information about baseball players, but you never actually talk to anybody. And so you find yourself doubting the way to pronounce a lot of names. Yes. I do. I don't know if... Yeah, sometimes I do. I've asked you before we've started recording a couple times how you would say something.

Yeah, I've heard his name. I've probably heard his name a million times, and I've probably internalized it, but I've never said it out loud. And until you say it out loud, you don't quite know how it's going to come out. Yeah, I think in my head I had it as more of an Uehara than an Uehara. But it's a subtle difference. So the reason I wanted to talk about him is that we've talked on this show about the wages that baseball teams pay for relievers, for free agent relievers. pay for relievers, for free agent relievers. And they generally don't follow the traditional war or warp $2 ratio that we've come to expect for free agents. They get paid usually more,

and there's often a sort of a predictable outcry to these deals. But know see every team doing this and have kind of developed an inclination to sort of defer to the industry I wouldn't think that all 30 teams are wrong about philosophy they might be and I'm open to that but anyway so when Jeremy I felt signs for three years and $18 million or Jonathan Broxton signs for, I think, three and 21 or Brandon League signs for three and 21, there is – I don't want to just sort of predictably react the same way to every single one of these. Right, although many people do. of these right although many people do then o'hara comes along and signs for one year and 4.5 million is a great rate for even per war and it's so unlike other relief contracts and he is as far as i can tell a really good reliever um. A really good one. He has historically landed right out of the block ratios. His ERA plus since he converted to relief three seasons

ago is, I believe, 180. He is extremely good against righties. He's extremely good against lefties. He has, I guess, one flaw and one aesthetic flaw. The flaw is that he gives up home runs, although he's always been in very hitter-friendly parks. And the aesthetic flaw is he doesn't throw hard. But he's extremely effective. And so I just want to know why he would get paid, you know, why a team would commit one-fifth as much to him as they would to Brandon League, who I can't imagine the mental gymnastics required to conclude that League is better, let alone...

Right. Yeah, I have thought the same thing. I mean, you mentioned a couple of the reasons. The first one being that he doesn't even throw 90 a lot of the time. He averages under 90. Teams tend not to like that. He, as you said, has given up over a home run per nine innings. He's also 37 and will be 38 just about on opening day um and then there's also i guess the durability concern right i mean he he threw 66 innings in his first season

and then oh right okay yeah and then in 2010 he only threw 30 44 as a reliever because he had elbow issues. And then last year, he threw only 36 innings because he had shoulder issues. Yeah. So I guess— Yeah, that is a thing. Yes. I mean, when he was healthier, when he was not on the DL, he pitched incredibly well. He had like a Cliff Lee strikeout to walk ratio in Cliff Lee's best season. batter per nine innings.

He has walked just, I mean, 1.2 per nine over his four-year career, which I imagine, I mean, it's only just over 200 innings, but that has to be probably the lowest rate of any pitcher who's thrown that many innings, I would assume. Would you like some Koji Uehara factoids? I would love some. All right. I actually just wrote up a bunch for an unfiltered post, Would you like some Koji Uehara factoids? I would love some. All right. I actually just wrote up a bunch for an unfiltered post,

so if these go a little too fast for you, they're all in print. So I'll give you some of my favorites. So he walked three batters this year in 36 innings. Alfredo Aceves walked that many on April 21st without retiring a batter after a 0-2 count he has now struck out 106 and walked 1 after only a first pitch strike he has struck out 132 and walked 6 against the 8 and 9 hitters in the lineup he has 50 strikeouts in one walk.

Against right-handers, he has 90 strikeouts in three walks. Let's see. He walked three batters in 2012. Edinson Volquez walked at least three batters in 25 of 32 starts. There were 81 pitchers who walked three or more hitters in an appearance this year that lasted one inning or less. So those are all strikeout-to-walk ratios. He obviously does allow home runs,

but if you compare him to Affelt and League, Affelt is, of course, essentially a lefty specialist. Affelt's OPS plus against him in the last two years is 524 against lefties. Uehara's against lefties in the last two years is 499, better. And League is essentially a righty specialist. He has a 508 OPS plus against righties. Uehara is 523, so slightly worse. But, of course, Uehara was playing in Texas for more than half of that time,

and League was playing in Safeco and Dodgers Stadium. So he is essentially, I mean, he's been significantly better, you know, than both of those guys' strengths. League has been a durable reliever, and he has thrown 70 more innings in the last three years than Uuahara, he's allowed 51 more runs, though. Right. Yeah, well, I mean, you wouldn't give the same length contract probably to a guy who will be 38 on opening day, but it would seem reasonable to give him a similar annual average value or something close to it.

I'm just refreshing my memory as we talk because, I mean, a guy who has these numbers you would think might have been deemed closer worthy. And in 2010, I guess it was Alfredo Simon started the season as the Orioles closer, lost the job, and then Uehara finished the season as the closer and from all appearances did a good job. He saved 13 games in 15 opportunities and pitched very well.

And then the following January, the Orioles signed Kevin Gregg, and that was it for Uehara's closer career, I guess. He hasn't had a—he has one save since then. So, I mean, and Kevin Gregg is not nearly the pitcher that Uehara is. I mean, he's barely a league-average reliever, really, if you look at his whole career. And yet he just waltzed right into Baltimore and took that job and started saving games. Uehara didn't lose that job unless I'm missing something. He didn't do anything to lose it. I guess maybe he got hurt,

but was healthy the following season. So I don't know. I guess it's the same sort of bias that is working against him when he's a free agent and he's looking for money as in his role in the bullpen. Well, when the Rangers traded for him too in midway through 2011, they very quickly moved him into low leverage outings. And when he essentially sort of lost the kind of common Ranger fans faith in him with a couple of home runs that he gave up early. And he was pitching in low leverage into the postseason. And he started this season basically doing mopup work for them in the bullpen.

Now, finally, by September of this year, he was back in high leverage. The one save he got was actually a one-out save, and I think, I'm just sort of glancing at it, I think that he got it because essentially the Rangers at the time didn't really have a lefty reliever that was effective. The Rangers at the time didn't really have a lefty reliever that was effective. O'Hara was, in a way, almost like the specialist because he's so good against lefties. And, in fact, I've kind of heard that brought up about his free agency, that the reason that he's attractive is because you can use him almost like a loogie,

which is, again, I mean, it's sort of i don't know like i i mean i i don't know it it it might just be a blind spot i have i felt the same way about sergio romo and i i wrote um i think i wrote a factoids unfiltered about him early this year because he wasn't i mean he was basically becoming a a right one out guy for the John who didn't have a healthy closer at the time because see, it was closing and Romo was more effective against ladies than I, he, I think if I'm not mistaken,

Romo had, had faced a higher percentage of righties over the previous year or so than any pitcher in baseball or, or, or than one or two, and yet he had a better OPS in his career. Well, I just went to look and see if there was any reason why he would have caused his managers to lose faith in him in high leverage spots, and it doesn't really seem like it.

He has almost exactly the same OPS allowed in high leverage situations and it doesn't really seem like it he has the same almost exactly the same ops allowed in in high leverage situations and low leverage situations as baseball reference defines it uh so it's not that and he didn't blow a bunch of saves or anything maybe it is just velocity yeah well that's got to be part of it. I mean, Romo's the same way, right? Romo has similar strike-out-to-walk ratios and similar velocity. And basically, like Romo, O'Hara has one tremendous swing and miss pitch. I mean, O'Hara's split finger is his bread and butter. He gets a tremendous amount of swinging strikes on it. And in addition to that, he gets a tremendous amount of swings on it,

which is sort of what sets it apart. More people swing at it than most off-speed pitches, and more people swing and miss at it than most off-speed pitches. And so it's sort of devastating. And Romo is the same way, but they both throw 88. I mean, they're probably our closers that throw 88. Do any jump out at you? No, but I will look quickly.

I wonder if there's any kind of bias against, I mean, I don't know, maybe most closers' best pitch is their fastball, or at least there's some sort of distrust of i don't know of relying too heavily on on a pitch that is usually out of the strike zone i guess and batters could just lay off it although obviously they don't against tui hara he might walk a guy every now and then um i don't know there's probably nothing to that uh i don't know do you have any idea what his numbers looked like in japan before he came over i'm just baseball reference doesn't really have any for him um uh yeah that's odd well they have his last two years

so in his last year uh before he came over as a starter was a sort of a swing man it looks like he had a 3.81 era tons of strikeouts not many walks a lot of home runs the year before that exclusive reliever 174 era 60 walked four guys in 62 66 strikeouts and walked four one of them intentional so i don't know what his career numbers look like over there. That's just two seasons after age 30, but his numbers in those couple seasons look pretty, if you add them up, look pretty similar to his major league numbers, which I guess supports the Dan Evans idea that I wrote about a couple weeks ago

that relievers coming over from Japan are the best bets to translate their performance because their role doesn't really change in any dramatic way. Whereas a position player, especially an infielder, has to deal with different playing surfaces since a lot of the Japanese stadiums are domes, and starters have to deal with a huge change to their workload, much less rest between starts, whereas relievers obviously have to deal with all the culture shock and everything, but as far as on the field, their role is pretty much the same. They're called on to do the same sort of thing at the same sort of time. called on to do the same sort of thing at the same sort of time.

So you look at a bunch of guys like Uehara and guys before and since who have pretty much pitched almost exactly as well here as they did before they came over, which makes you kind of optimistic about Fujikawa, the guy that the Cubs signed this winter. But he actually throws a bit harder and used to throw very hard. So maybe he won't have the same sort of fastball discrimination going on, if that's what it is. Or maybe it's just the home runs.

Maybe it's like you don't want a guy who can give up a solo homer that could tie a game in a one-game lead or save situation game. I mean, I don't know what the typical home run rate for a situation often, if he's an eighth inning guy or ninth inning guy, he is going to be in tie games. He is going to be in one run lead games. And maybe managers are just kind of wary of putting a guy who does give up home runs that often, even if overall he's just as effective as anyone. Yeah, I think that home runs are probably the most, well, I don't know, maybe walks are. Yeah, I was going to say walks.

I mean, no manager wants a closer who walks the leadoff guy or gets himself in trouble that way. And obviously he doesn't do that. So is Raphael Bettencourt the comp here? Let's see um i guess it's similar similar sort of numbers i mean he's pitching for the rockies uh but i guess he gave up home runs before that yeah it just yeah i mean it took him so long to get a closer's job he didn't even make his major league debut until he was 28 and he has always been this guy too i mean i would i don't know if he has always been as good as uhara has been over the past three years but he certainly

has been has had seasons where he's been even better he's had stretches of seasons where he's been even better. He's had stretches of seasons where he's been very good. And he's had some of these bizarre, wacky strike-out-to-walk ratios too. He's had four of them over 10 per nine, which essentially does not ever happen by anybody else. And this is his first year as a closer at age 37. And he also gives up home runs. I don't know. a closer at age 37 and so I and he also gives up home runs I don't know I wonder I wonder what the sort of genetic similarity is there between those two guys yeah that's a good comparison uh

throw harder but um I don't know I mean there's to be a lot of similarities in the story 92 ish at least which I guess is is enough to yeah it I mean, it's at least Kevin Gregg. Right. Yeah, well, good signing then by the Red Sox. I guess we agree on that. And it'll be interesting to see how they use him and whether they use him as a low leverage guy or they put him in a role that you think would be appropriate for someone with his statistics.

Yeah, all right. Anyway, good for the Red Sox. Yeah. Okay. So that's it for the show. That's it for this week. So we will be back next week with episode 98. And because you have nothing better to do with your weekends, you can email us at podcast at baseball perspectives.ives.com and we will answer your email next week.