Effectively Wild: A FanGraphs Baseball Podcast - Effectively Wild Episode 99: Two More Reactions to the Rays-Royals Trade

Episode Date: December 11, 2012

Ben and Sam weigh in on the Rays-Royals trade involving James Shields and Wil Myers a day after the dust settles.

Good morning and welcome to episode 99 of Effectively Wild, the Baseball Perspectives Daily Podcast. In New York, New York, I am Ben Lindberg and in Long Beach, California in the Honda Fit. Joining me is Sam Miller. Hello, Sam. Hello, Ben. Yesterday we discussed a major off-season move, and today we are also discussing a major off-season move, not the same one, a different one. This time we're going to talk about the Rays and Royals trade that happened, I guess, on Sunday night, right before we talked about the cranky trade. And we've now had a day to digest this and to read the many

articles written on both sides of the debate and coming down on either side. Some people staunchly defending the Royals' decision, others thinking that the Rays wiped the floor with the Royals. There's a pretty wide range of opinions here. So I guess we will try to make sense of why that is and talk about some of the outstanding issues here. Is there any particular place where you want to start? I have a few kind of questions, but I don't know where to dive in exactly. Well, I mean, I don't either. So I guess there's one perspective, I guess, which is— Maybe we should just start by saying whether we think it's a good trade for the Royals or not. All right. We should probably say what the trade is just in case—

It's James Shields and Wade Davis will go to the Royals, and top prospect Will Myers and three other prospects of varying levels will be going to the Rays. And Shields is signed for two more years at, I believe, $21 million or so. And Davis has a long extension that he signed that takes him theoretically through 2017. Yeah, and the last year of that deal, I think, is $10 million. And it starts at around $2.5 million or something next year. It's good that we did that because we talked about Koji Uehara for an entire episode last week and didn't mention why we were talking about him until the last 30 seconds, which someone pointed out.

So now we have established why we are talking about this topic. So I guess, I mean, my initial reaction was that the Rays had gotten the better of this deal. I have, I guess I've fluctuated a bit on the degree to which I think they won the deal, just reading the various perspectives. When I read the impassioned defense of the deal, I am slightly tugged towards that side, and then I read something on the other side, and I'm slightly tugged towards that side. But I have remained on the side of the Rays winning this deal, though I don't think it's the most abominable trade ever on the part of the royals which is uh maybe there there has been some sort of hyperbole on that side as if this is one of the worst deals

we will ever see i don't think it's quite that bad um but i i do think the race got the better of it yeah i think well i think at home not, but almost everybody I think thinks that the Rays won from their perspective. More the question is whether the Royals lost or whether it's a move that suits both teams. And so I also – I mean I don't – I haven't – I mean I would be perfectly fine being convinced. Otherwise, I don't really have a great emotional investment in saying that the Royals lost it. I don't take like, like delight in badmouthing Dayton Moore or anything like that. But I also think that it is a poor move from the Royals perspective. And I think that they would have been better off if they hadn't

made the move. Yeah. I guess the, maybe Jeff Passan sort of expressed the sentiment on the Royals' side of the deal, and even he said that the Rays probably got the best value here long term, but that the Royals won in a way also. And the way that he put it, I guess, was that they have this young core. the way that he put it, I guess, was that they have this young core. It is their competitive window seems to be open at this point, except for the fact that they didn't have any starting pitching, really. And that's a problem. And they have sort of failed to develop it. They've drafted some promising starters, but those starters have gotten hurt or they haven't

panned out in the way that it was hoped that they would. So the way that Passan put it is that they were essentially boxed into making some sort of move while they could theoretically contend, because if they just waited and waited, before you know it, the Hosmers and the Moustakas will start to get expensive and then they'll go their separate ways and the quarter will be gone. And the idea is that, at least as he mentioned, David Glass would not pay for a free agent starter of equivalent value or roughly equivalent value. A lot of people have said, well, why didn't they just sign Anibal Sanchez and just, you know, spend a little more money maybe, but save in the long term,

which is pretty persuasive. He sort of portrayed it as more not really having a choice, that Glass wasn't willing to do that. Now, if that's the case, if this was his only way to improve the rotation, or if the only way to improve the rotation was by trading a top position player, does that make this more acceptable to you? Well, I think there are, in sort of in broad strokes, I think there are three arguments that are used to defend the Royals position. One is that they needed pitching more than they needed hitting. Two is that it is their window now. pitching more than they needed hitting two is that it is their window now and so the long-term value of Myers is you know less to them than the short-term value of Shields is and three is that prospects are simply uh haven't done anything and therefore don't have the same value so the

pitching one is probably to me maybe in it might be the most compelling one in a way because if they simply weren't going to have the financial flexibility to make these moves on the free agent market, then they certainly are limited. I think that I generally have a little bit of a problem with this line of thought though because you don't get bonus points for having a balanced team you get bonus points for outscoring your opponent and it doesn't really matter if you have the worst pitching staff in baseball if you have the greatest offense in history for instance and i mean you just have to score more than the other team and um the upgrade from i guess guess, maybe Will Smith to James Shields is certainly substantial. But I think that if Myers turns into something, then the upgrade from Francoeur to Myers is also substantial. And he put that at four wins as of next season, which seems optimistic to me.

Yeah, it depends on your projection system. Pakoda has basically—it depends on which pitcher you replace with Shields. But Pakoda has, I think, Shields at—the Shields upgrade is like a win or so more than the Myers upgrade. But, you know, again, it depends on which system you're using. It depends on which players you're removing. I mean, that's a sort of a complicated math to do. I know that I saw the Oliver projection for Myers was very high. It was like an 810 or 820 OPS this year. And, you know, Passon made the case that corner outfielders are easy to find. Yeah, that was interesting because we talked, I guess it was a couple of weeks ago now, when the Myers reports first started to surface.

I think when we talked about that, neither of us thought that he would actually be traded. But we talked about what it would mean if he were traded. And RJ Anderson wrote an article for BP about that. would mean if he were traded. And RJ Anderson wrote an article for BP about that and whether it would sort of reflect poorly on Myers or whether we would have to adjust our expectations for Myers if he were traded. Because as RJ pointed out, and as a bunch of people have now pointed out again in the last day or so, it is rare or unprecedented for a prospect of his caliber to be traded before even appearing with his team. And now we're starting to see a lot of his caliber to be traded before even appearing with his team and now we're starting to see a lot of people kind of i mean we're seeing people talk about how great a prospect he is but

we're also seeing people kind of poke holes in his prospect status at least a little bit just he plays right field he has a lot of swing and miss it could take him a few years to get established in the majors and um i don't know if he would have heard that before the trade maybe but um i guess maybe the fact that he has been traded is is kind of prompting people to think a little less of him or at least look for reasons why he would have been traded uh anyway as you were saying as As I was saying, now I'm way, now like to go back to the sentence that I was literally in the middle of would seem weird. Yeah. But I was just going to say that Passant listed some corner outfielders who are kind of mid-salary guys who were productive

this year. But I don't know. I don't know that I believe that cheap corner outfield is actually easier to find than cheap pitching. I mean, there's so many pitchers in the world. And I mean, obviously, it's a competitive market for them. But I mean, you could also make a list of guys who were unexpected contributors to teams this year and the pitching staff, you know, in pitching rotations as well. So I don't know that I'm totally convinced by that, but I'm probably most convinced by that. The window argument is where I really find that I dislike this trade. And as you've heard me say, I've become not really a big fan of the idea of windows. I don't really like the idea of punting four seasons in a row in order to try to make one or two big pushes

because I find that those pushes can get derailed by so many factors that what you really want to do is put yourself in as many positions as possible where you can at least fancy the idea that things could break right. And I think the Royals, what they're doing is essentially, in a way, making, I would say, the same mistake but on the back end of this. Instead of trying to win for each of the next six years, they're essentially shoving their window into a two-year period with shields. And that's what I don't like. I would really have liked to see them give themselves six, seven, eight years with this core to try to make something happen

instead of trying to make it happen in two years. Two years, it's just too hard to have things go right in two years. Things don't go right. So I would have, you know, that's probably my big problem with it. It shortens the core. I mean, Shields is a free agent in two years. He might, you know, he might sign an extension. That's all well and good, but he'll probably be very expensive at that point. And I still don't consider him a particularly elite pitcher. And, um, you know, I, I think that you would rather have Shields this year than Myers. You

would rather have maybe Shields next year than Myers. You would rather have maybe Shields next year than Myers. You would certainly rather have Myers the next four years than nobody, though. So that's where I think it's a bummer of a move. Yeah, it's almost fatalistic, or it's like they artificially set their expectations for themselves lower than they had to. Yeah, exactly. And I don't think this is the best year that they could have hoped for either i mean that i mean sure everything could have gone wrong if you if you're gonna be that pessimistic you could say oh well shoot everything could have

gone wrong and in three years we might be in last place again but i mean you know god you want to make all your moves based on the worst case scenario? It seems like, you know, they had something going. It was going to be fun. There was going to be a night of fun in Kansas City. Yeah, it does. I mean, it seems sort of a shame to assemble the greatest. I don't know if I'm talking over you. You're fading out a bit.

out a bit um but to establish the just the greatest collection of prospect talent that anyone has ever seen in recent memory uh and then to just kind of mortgage it for 2013 and 2014 it seems like they're more likely to contend the next couple seasons but their odds of becoming the next raise are are much lower now than they would have been before the deal because you're looking at a guy who would have been under team control and cheap and possibly very, very good for years. And the Royals could have sustained this thing, you'd think. They could have kept it going. Obviously, they have some talent at drafting and signing and developing players, sustained this thing you'd you'd think they could have kept it going with i mean the obviously they have some talent at at drafting and signing and developing players things haven't worked out

perfectly but they put this collection of talent together and and they've graduated much of it to the major leagues uh there's no reason why they couldn't continue or why that couldn't continue to be a strength uh so if they could have locked up a few of these guys and kept them in town and continued to supplement with new talent and guys like myers there's no reason why they couldn't be tampa bay themselves with probably an even higher payroll and a better ballpark and a and market. Yeah, remember at the trade deadline when I was saying that the Orioles should trade Dylan Bundy because even though we didn't think that they were good and that they probably weren't going to make the playoffs anyway and

their playoff odds at the time were like 7%, I was saying it's still the closest they're going to get because they're a terrible team and a terrible organization. That was an extremely pessimistic viewpoint and i was being basically a jerk to the orioles and what the royals have done is essentially take that position for their own team they're saying hey we had 72 wins last year this is as good as it's gonna get we better make our run now you know like you i mean you look at the you bring up the rays and it's a really good point and it's fascinating that this is the Rays and the Royals because the Rays and the Royals are in a lot of ways in the same position right now.

The Rays are actually closer to winning the division next year, but they both are thinking that they're going to contend for the division right now. They're both thinking that they have very small margins and they can't afford to waste money. They're both thinking that they're not going to be able to add through free agency and they're both trying to build a core that will be cheap but successful for a few years. And it's sort of fascinating that the Royals, I mean, obviously, well, when we talked about whether teams were ever going to stop trading with the Rays,

I mean, you would maybe think that at some point you'd go, hey, the Rays have been really successful at this. This is a model that has worked. This is the model that all small market teams should be kind of trying to emulate. The Royals have to some degree when they locked up Sal Perez to that long-term deal. That was a very Rays kind of a move. You would think at some point they'd think, you know, why don't the Rays want Shields right now and Davis right now?

Why are they willing to make this move, even though they're closer to the division right now than we are? I mean, I guess the response to that is that the Rays kind of have an imbalance in the other direction with how their talent is distributed in the roster. They have more starters than they can fit into a rotation really right now. So it's not that they don't want Shields, it's just that his value is at its highest and the drop from Shields to the next guy isn't as large for them. So I guess that is the response. as large for them.

So I guess that is the response. I don't know if you find that convincing. I find it a little convincing. I mean, I imagine that the Rays would be happy to have more pitchers than they need, as every team is. But it is relevant and it is a fair point. Crimony, I forgot what i was uh oh yeah most maybe the most convincing point that anybody made when if you think that this is crazy lopsided and basically i mean it boils down to shields and myers there's very key parts i was shocked at the quality of prospects that were going back

in addition to myers and davis isn't useless useless and Davis might be very useful but if you look at Myers shields I think most people who consider this trade lopsided would consider Myers shields inbound an unbalanced trade and so very convincing to me to read that in Jeff passens piece that the Rays actually resisted yeah they rejected that deal is gonna bring that up I think that's interesting i i would i'm surprised by that and it makes me evaluate both players and it makes me reevaluate both teams philosophies because i think that the rays um if the rays would turn that down then they would do it with a good reason well maybe they turned that down because they figured

they could get the royals to sweeten it more. I mean, that's the way it worked out. Right. One of the two options is that they were basically bluffing and that they just knew that they could get somebody to overpay for shields. And Myers alone wasn't enough of an overpay. Or the other is that they actually evaluated these players and they thought that shield surplus value as a starting player locked up for two years was greater than Myers surplus value as a top 10 prospect. And I wouldn't have thought that. It surprises me if that's the case, but there's reason to think that it might be.

Well, it surprised me even more, something that Passan also wrote, that the A's turned down a Myers for Brett Anderson trade straight up. That probably surprised me even more, even though Anderson is signed for three years or at least has team options that would take him through three years and is younger and is, I mean, I don't know, he's left-handed and maybe he has more long-term promise, but he's also a guy who can't stay healthy and made six starts last year and 13 starts the year before that and 19 starts before the year that i mean you'd think a team like the a's would have jumped on that deal or at least i would have thought so also a team with surplus pitching yeah yeah i uh my first thought was that i would rather have anderson than shields i'm not sure anymore that i think that because I probably always underestimate how injury prone and injury

prone pitcher is I kind of have a crush on Anderson but yeah I now looking at it I think that I would have thought that that would be a no-brainer too if you're the so it is interesting and it makes you wonder what it is about Myers that makes him less in demand by teams than by prospect makers. Yeah. Okay. So the deal is done, whatever we may think a bit. So in the aftermath, do you think that the Royals are a contending team this year? I look at the roster and I really like the lineup, even without Myers, even with Frank Gore. I like everyone really like the lineup even without Myers even with Frank or I like everyone else in the lineup just about but the rotation you you'd like I think if you traded your top prospect for starting pitching to have a rotation that you didn't have to worry about too much after

the deal but even looking at it now with Shields at the top and with Guthrie, beyond that, it is still pretty iffy. There's Irvin Santana, there's Bruce Chen, who's fine for a number five, I guess. And then there's Wade Davis, who it seems based on his past performance in the rotation could maybe be a back of the rotation guy. Probably nothing better than that if he's actually starting. So does this look like a contending team right now? If they have kind of mortgaged the future in some sense to contend now, will it work? I mean, I think they're certainly among the 26 teams that I would consider to have a chance

and they are probably among the I don't know 18 that I would consider to have a realistic chance but if you ask me to choose a roster from the NL from the AL Central they would they would be the third team I would choose okay uh well that's I guess not really what you would want to see after making a trade of this nature, that if you're going for it in 2013, that in a kind of division that seems to be wide open every year, they would still not be the favorite or maybe even the second favorite. Yeah, I guess one question, too, is what does it take for this to be successful? I mean, for Kansas City to declare victory. And I would imagine that, I mean, you know, a wild card play-in game that they lose wouldn't be enough, I imagine. A World Series certainly would be. So I wonder what they think needs to happen in the next two years to justify the addition of shields

yeah i read i don't remember what reaction it was now but but basically said making the playoffs is a win just because it's been so long yeah i would say that i would be um if if that's truly their philosophy then i would be disappointed by. And what do you think this means for the Rays in the short term? I think it was Buster Olney who made the point that we might not even see Myers next year in Tampa Bay, or we might not see him much if they hold him down and try to save his service time for when he might be more major league ready. And they might try to lock him up to a Longoria-style extension. So if they don't have Shields next year, and if Myers hasn't arrived yet or isn't an impact player yet,

and the other prospects probably aren't yet either, and they don't have Davis... They'll be fine. They're going to be fine. Yeah. I mean, I think Shields would have been their fourth best pitcher next year. either and they don't have davis uh they're gonna be fine yeah they i mean i think shields would have been their fourth best pitcher next year um and my battery might die instantly so if i i'm very low uh but uh i mean i don't know the razor i wouldn't take the raise as the number one roster in that division either um but i think the Rays are probably a solid eight wins,

maybe 10 wins better than the Royals, and will do just fine. I mean, they're going to be an 85 to 95 win team for the next four or five years. All right. Well, we've talked a lot about this, and we could probably talk for a lot longer because this is a really interesting trade

uh i'm kind of happy it happened just in that sense because it's a fun trade to talk about and analyze is there anything else you want to cover about it uh well i mean no i i i agree we could probably talk for another 40 minutes but nothing nothing imperative. Okay. So we'll be back then on Wednesday with the email show, the traditional email show. So if you want your email to be read and answered, please email us at podcast at baseballperspectives.com. And I guess it will also be episode 100, and we have nothing planned for that special episode except for answering your emails. So this has been episode 99. We will be back tomorrow.