I Don't Know About That - Political Polling

Episode Date: April 30, 2024

The consensus is in: Jim doesn’t understand how polls work. Luckily our expert Joshua Doss knows enough within a margin of error (that’s a polling term!) Josh’s Socials: TikTok: @appliedscience11 IG: @josh_doss5   ADS: BETTERHELP: Visit BetterHelp.com/IDK today to get 10% off your first month DRAFTKINGS: New players, start playing with just FIVE BUCKS and get ONE HUNDRED BACK INSTANTLY in Casino Credits. Download the app and use code IDKAT to book your one-way ticket to fun with DraftKings Casino! www.draftkings.com

This show is sponsored by BetterHelp. We all carry around different stresses, whether they be big or small. We keep them bottled up. It can start to affect us negatively, in not a good way. Therapy is a safe space to get things off your chest and to figure out how to work through things, whatever's weighing on you or weighing you down. Get it off your chest with BetterHelp. Visit betterhelp.com slash idk today to get 10% off your first month. That's betterhelp, H-E-L-P dot com slash idk. Hey everyone, Jack here.

Just want to let you know that there will not be an episode next week, but there will be one two weeks from now. Hopefully. Sorry. But anyway, enjoy this week's episode. Penises. Vaginas. If you turn them inside out, would they become the other one? Something to think about. You might find out. And I don't know about that with jim jeffries hello everyone how are you this is uh this is this

is your hour of the week where you get to listen to me talk about things and i'm here with jack and i'm here with forrest and we've had a big week tell us everyone tell tell your news i had a date oh i didn't know that yeah i had nothing to talk about so i thought i'd put jack in his place and jack would just go i I bought a sandwich. No, you had a date. I did buy a sandwich, too. How did it go? Date went great.

The second one's tonight. All right. Well, I'm not going to ask any more. I'll wait until she dumps you like the rest of them, and then we'll chat. Yep. See you tomorrow. Have you had a date?

Me? Yeah. Not recently, no. have you had a date me yeah um not recently no i always like when when americans say things like this not since the reagan administration oh yeah there's like any administration or just well when i was a kid that would be like the old thing that like late night shows with how you go hey we haven't seen anything like this since the Reagan. Last time I got my dick sucked was the Reagan administration. Last time I was

the Reagan administration. That's so long ago now. I think people say since the Bush, since the second Bush administration. Yeah. That's the new

Reagan administration. I'm going to start saying that me stand up. Yeah, my wife, she hasn't, she hasn't given me a handjob since Bush was in office with Bush W if we go back to boys only 33 yeah it gets very go back to W? What years were that? Well, you got 12. Look, you didn't even know her then.

That's about 16 years. I'll be honest. Me and my wife started dating while Trump was in office. Yeah, I don't think you can go back to W. I think that would be bad. You'll find something to use that for. Obama would just scrape in there Obama second term

that's how long it's been follow us on Instagram idcatpodcast and for all sorts of fun clips

yeah I think that one might make it who knows what do you mean it. I think that one might make it. Who knows? What do you mean? It was fun. Oh, that one. Oh, that is a clip.

That could be a clip. Maybe. I'll label it. We'll see. I've been interacting with people more on Instagram there. Sometimes they send messages to you or me. Sometimes they don't even know they're talking to me. Or it could be Jack or Jack State.

Anyone. That's right. It could be anyone. to me or it could be jack or jack state anyone that's right anyone but um i i i had so so my tv show in australia the one percent club uh changed time slots yeah to a different day right just because it was just changed to a different day and i had some people write to me uh who were contestants in the show who were quite abusive i know they go like. People think that I, when I host a TV show, that I'm back there editing and selling the tickets

and doing all the bits of paperwork. Yeah, mom and pop. I'm going to tell you something. When you see me on TV, that's literally everything I've done. The bit you see is all of it. Because I hear some people going, why didn't you tell me it was going to change?

I missed my own episode. Great question. Yeah, yeah. Yeah, that's what I do. I change the TV schedule, and then I call the hundred contestants up to make sure that they know. I didn't fucking know.

Contestant 30, I'm screwing you over this week. Yeah, yeah, yeah. I'm not going to tell that bitch contestant number 46. She can fuck off at all. I hope she misses the episode. I'm not sure when this is coming out. I think it might be after I've already done my Australia shows. But if not, April 24th and 26th, I'm at the Factory Theatre in Sydney, Australia.

Go out and see Forrest. Melbourne, 1st through the 4 fourth at the Comics Lounge. Definitely this will come out before then, so the Melbourne show. So go to my website, 4shaw.net. There's links on there

for tickets. Please come out. I know there's a lot of people in Australia listening to this. Come on out. Melbourne, Sydney, Australia. 4shaw.net. I had to reschedule

some gigs recently for personal reasons and for that, I'd like to apologize to the people and I'm looking forward to coming out and seeing you as soon as possible. Yeah. Go to jimjeffries.com.

I think everything should be there. For all your scheduling needs. Fixed by on there. Fixedjimjeffries.com right now. We haven't looked at that web page for a while. We don't know who runs it. Yeah. 2022.

We don't. Just a fan runs it. Since the Reagan administration. Since the Reagan administration. Since the Reagan administration. I'm going to start saying that to my 11-year-old. Well, you know, mate, I haven't ridden a bike since the Reagan administration. What, Dad? You know, he's that bloke who went, well, you're that guy.

I hope your son starts picking it up and starts using it at school. And I was teaching him that. What are you talking about? Yeah, yeah, yeah. I hate angle. I hope your son starts picking it up and starts using it at school. And I was teaching him that. What are you talking about? Yeah, yeah, yeah. I hate angle. Oh, no. Angle being like this. And since the Reagan administration, hey-o.

My son has the best knowledge of old music I've ever seen in a human being. You put any old song on and he'll just sing along with it. I'm like, where are you? Where did you hear this? Just hear them around the place, Dad. Probably from you. Yeah, I don't know. There's about four bands I listen to in my car. What's the one that shocked you the most recently?

He was singing Creedence Clearwater around the house. Wow. I haven't got a Creedence Clearwater No that doesn't seem Like one of your bands Red, white and blue That's a

I was like What if you were Watching Apocalypse Now What's going on Maybe his mom likes it He's a politically Tragedy son His mom's like

I don't know where He is these dogs She just likes Dance music No one knows Where this music Knowledge is coming into this job He just seems amazing

He has a mixed album that he puts on Where I just go put on Hank's songs Because they're the best They're bangers Every time I put on a Hank mix I'm in a pool I put on the Hank mix that he's put there for me I'm like I haven't heard this song in 20 years

How did you know about this? I don't know It's crazy I don't know what they're teaching him at this school, but it's good. It's working. Yeah, it's good. It's worth all the money.

Yeah. No, it's worth half the money. Come on. Don't get carried away, Jack. I'm sorry. I was just being supportive. That was the school class. Just raise the rates, too.

You write the checks, Jack. I think I do. You're like this. Obviously, this one's for a house. No, no, no Oh, invite another house, are you? Alright, let's get going Now let's meet our guest

Joshua Doss G'day Joshua Now it's time to play Yes though Yes though Yes though Yes though Judging a book by its cover.

Well, Josh was a young man. He lives in what seems to be a fairly, that section of his house seems to be fairly underscript. Not a lot of information. He does have a refrigerator, though. So, is it the Cold War? You wish. You just watched an old documentary on that. I'm ready to go on the cold war i can

answer everything um okay so is it something to do with the entertainment business josh can i answer these questions yes or no yes or no answers oh oh no no is it got to do with science i know everything's got to do with science but is it yes okay is it is it um we do a science? I know everything's got to do with science, but is it? Yes. Okay. Is it? We do a lot of stuff in medicine. That'll throw you, though.

It is something to do with science. That's why he said yes. Is it medical? No. Is it about the environment? No, not inherently. Oh, not inherently. Okay. Is it uh the human body

that's medicine isn't it so it can't be that medicine no no it can't be that okay uh is it is it science it's not about is it is it a sport related one i love a sport one can we do a sport one not today we have done them, but... This is something that you might be cynical about. Oh. Oh, is it about the earth being round? Ding, ding, ding. I didn't know you were a flat earther.

You're a flat earther. Oh, wow. Now you know. There's an ice wall, people. Another episode we can do there. Nope. I do know about that. Okay, so it's something I'm skeptical about.

I think you might be. I don't know. It seems like you would be. It seems like something he'd be skeptical of. Has it got to do with a certain animal? Nope. What? There's some animals that...

Okay, think about... Untrustworthy Nope. What? Nope. There's some animals that- Okay, think about- Untrustworthy animals. Like my favorite, one of my favorite shows all the time is the West Wing. Yes. And they would do this a lot in that show. Walking and talking. Bingo, physical therapist.

Is it walking and talking? It's not walking and talking. He's doing it all the time. Vote. Getting closer. I'm skeptical about voting. Before voting. Before voting,

we threw rocks at people. This is stoning. Before people vote, this will happen and it's information. Oh, it's the election process, the campaigning. Sort of. You're getting closer. You're getting closer. It's the election process, the campaigning. Nah, sort of.

You're getting closer. You're getting closer. You're getting closer. It's the voting that doesn't matter. Oh, and primaries. Does he want me to just tell you? Yeah, sure. We're talking about political polling.

Ah, polling. Yeah. Yeah, I'm skeptical about polling. That's what I figured. Yeah. That's what I figured. It's elections before elections. Joshua Doss has a degree in political science, business management, and economics.

Josh is a political consultant with polling experience at the local, state, and federal level of politics. He has been studying survey data for just shy of a decade and has used that knowledge to lead multi-million dollar research projects geared towards understanding what voters think about the economy, politicians, elections, and more. Currently, he's a senior pollster and political consultant at HIT Strategies. He's been featured in the New York Times, Washington Post, Newsweek Magazine, The Hill, and NBC News. You can find him on TikTok at AppliedScience11 and on Instagram at Josh underscore Doss,

D-O-S-S-5, where he talks about the intersection of politics, polling, and economics. Cool. Thanks for being here. You prefer Josh or Joshua? I didn't even ask you. Either one is fine. I usually say I introduce myself as Joshua

and then people just do whatever they want to do. Okay. Well, thanks for being here. You want to tell us a little bit more about just how you got into this field? Yeah. I'm just majoring in political science. Coming out of college, I got my first job with the governor of Illinois, not particularly in polling, but more in political consulting and just organizing voters and things of that nature. Then I went on the road with some

presidential candidates and kind of fell into some speech writing things. And a lot of speeches actually grabbed their languages from polls. So I ended up kind of naturally going into the polling room. Do you like to show the West Wing? I've seen some of it. I think it's pretty good. Out of the political shows, I think it's closest to the accurate ones,

I would say. What about the Obi-Wan Kenobi series on Disney Plus? Did you enjoy that? It had nothing to do with Poland. Oh, I thought we were just talking about shows we enjoy. What about America's Funniest Home Videos? Oh, okay. All right.

That's a throwback. I like that one. It's still going. It's not a throwback. It's still on. It's got Carlton on it. To be fair. Oh, right.

You know the only time you actually watch TV on airplanes? You go, I'll watch a channel. And I was just watching a channel on an airplane the other day, and I sat back and I went, funny as done videos. I'm high as a kite. Let's do it. These are funny. There's some polling on that, actually.

I guess there's. People vote. Yeah, people vote. People vote. People vote. All right, Josh, I'm going to ask Jim a series of questions about political polling and after he's done answering those, you're going to grade him on his accuracy, 0 through 10. 10 is the best.

Jackson, grade him on confidence. I'm going to grade him on how hungry I am. And at the end of that, we'll tally those scores together. If you get 20 through 30, Poland. Poland. Got it. gram and at the end of that we'll tally those scores together if you get 20 or 30 what did you write here pol poland poland got it yeah it's better than always go the polls say i always think it's polish people yeah 11 11 20 fire polls the earth or 10 stripper poll that's like all of those whatever category i'm telling you poland's a cracking country man i didn't know it was gonna be it's a banger i I never had it on my list.

And then I went there. Awesome country. Pierogies. Pierogies, love them. Here's the first question. What's the difference between a poll and a survey? A survey's from Serbia. No.

Okay. A poll actually, I don't know, a survey. A survey asks multiple questions and a poll sort of narrows it on one. Okay. I don't think that's wrong. I think poll... So this is the thing about polling, right? This is the thing.

There we go. So I don't trust the people who answer the questions because I think they're needy folk who just want to, you know... Okay, so... We'll talk about it. I'll just stop on there. If you have a TV show, you have a TV show, you know how they decide whether it rates well with the general public?

They walk around Universal Studio and offer people 50 bucks and say, come in. So everyone who's judging your TV program needs 50 bucks. Is this the... I did one of those in Vegas. Yeah. They have the CBS experience. You sit and watch a show that's never going to air.

Yeah. I don't think they do that for political polling. They give you money you get what i'm saying yeah but it's it's the same gobshot at a party who wants their opinion known okay explain the basics of how political polling works and why it is important to the political landscape well i guess it is a necessary thing because how political polling works is you ask a series of questions and the people basically vote with their words and say, I do like this. I don't like that. I would vote this way. I wouldn't vote that way.

When you say I would vote this way, it means you wouldn't vote the other way. So you probably can save yourself a couple of questions there. Right. Polling gives the politicians some information on the general public and maybe the general public from different races, class, stature, and areas of the country. And those polls make you go, ah, look, the Latino vote's going to go this way or that. So it gives them a guide on where they have to work harder or maybe where they

could stop giving a fuck that was one of your best manufactured answers ever i think thank you might even be right no you're just making it up as you're going the distance of existence nothing will beat that how do pollsters select who they are going to poll um not not based on your universal experience no politically i i believe they would uh well people would have to answer a survey to be getting to the next section to be a poll because they would want to know uh your age race demographic and location and all that type of stuff that and and also things like they'd want to know how many members in your family. So I think probably from the census, the census would give them a good guide on who they would want to use

to poll because in different seats and- You think you'd know about the census if it were not for the Jim Jefferies show? I mean, you don't need to know that it existed. I've been part of the census. I've been part of the Australian census. I've answered censuses before. I fill out his census. Yeah, he's filled out censuses for me.

How accurate are polls? It turns out I'm a bad employer. I wrote that down myself, allegedly. How accurate are polls, political polls? Well, they're pretty accurate. They think the Ukraine's in the right. That's another Polish joke. Why is it in American culture that you make the Polish people stupid

and everywhere else in the world we make the Irish stupid in jokes? When did that happen? I don't know. We should do an episode on that. Just that. And where do you get the term Polak? It always sounds so much like, I go, a Polish person, and then like it's, I don't know if it's racist.

Is it racist? I think it is. It feels like. I think it is. It doesn't sit well with me when they say Pollack. No. How accurate are political polls? I would believe that political polls, for the most part, are fairly accurate because

whenever they say the polls show this... Fairly? Yeah. I'm going to say... What are you on, a percentage? I don't know. I'll say... Okay.

I'll say they're 85% accurate. Okay. I'll say because what happens is when they say someone's going to say, what are you, what are you on a percentage? I don't know. I'll say, okay, I say they're 85% accurate. Okay. I'll say because what happens is when they say someone's going to lose here, they normally lose there, they're not often wrong. I would say they're wrong 15% of the time. So I'm going to say 85% is a good number. What challenges do pollsters face in reaching an accurate prediction of election outcomes and how do they attempt to overcome these challenges?

Well, I would never feel one out or do it. So that's a challenge. Getting to people like me who are apathetic, beating apathy is a challenge for us all. Okay. Alright, can you name any historical examples

of major polling errors or controversies and what lessons we learned from them or we learned from them um major polling error or controversy i'm gonna say i know i look this is this is a guess so you can mark me down on confidence but i'm gonna say during the bush gore election when they had the vote in Florida, they got recounted. I believe the Democrats thought they were going to win that by a bit more, but they did not count on the Cubans being upset about the child that washed up on the beach. Alien?

Yeah. Did you watch that documentary too? Many years ago. If there's a documentary, I've seen it. I watch every one. I grew up in Miami, and maybe Josh knows, but it's my understanding that the Cuban people in Miami generally voted Republican anyway. So I don't think that really mattered.

I know, but I don't think they knew with what force they were going to do. I believe the Democrats thought they had. I'm going to say the election between Al and Gore and the state of Florida. Bush and Gore. Yeah. Bush of Florida. Bush and Gore. Yeah, I got it. Bush and Gore. So Bush and Gore. In an era of increasing polarization, how do pollsters-

George and Al, I call them. George and Al makes them sound a lot nicer. George and Al makes them sound like a couple of old bastards at the pub that you go, ah. Honestly, I'd be fine with either of them. George and Al sit in the barbershop fucking talking about sports, and then they say some questionable things. In an era of increasing polarization, how do pollsters ensure their questions are unbiased and do not favor one political ideology over another? Say that again.

That was a lot of words. So how, like now things are more polarized. How do people- Ah, polarized. Polls. Yeah. How do political pollsters, how do they ensure that their questions are unbiased and don't favor like one political party or another or political idea or ideology or

another like how do they make sure that they're unbiased they start the sentences with things like this imagine if and what do you reckon right they never go, they never start their sentences like this. We all know Democrats are the best. Or we all know Democrats are the worst. They never start like that. They just go, Democrats, what do you reckon? That's how it goes. Ambiguous phrasing.

Ambiguous phrasing and not making the paper red or blue. What is waiting? W-E--h like wait how much you weigh what is waiting it's relations to balls it's it's what any girlfriend of yours does if they want to get married i don't even understand that waiting uh yeah but this is wait i got it okay what is waiting that would be that would be um uh what you mean like waiting the poll would that be a sentence waiting it's spelled like wait when you weigh yourself on a scale okay so i i believe that that would be nudging the questions in either direction would be weighing it this way or waiting it that way so as to adjust the poll to because because i'm sure there's most,

for the most part, there's polls that are like really good, but then I'm sure that Trump has had some polls where he's like, comb-overs are in, I've checked the polls, you know what I mean? He'd have a weighted poll

for that particular thing, comb-overs. What, you probably heard this term, likely voter. Yeah. What is that and how are they determined? I'm a likely voter. I'll likely vote. That's what that means right but i but if i'm sleepy that day i might not but i don't want to line up like let's be honest the american voting system we are mailing in yeah yeah but

who knows how to do that i do it's pretty easy you drop it they've got boxes all around yeah i don't know jack mailed something for me the other day. We weren't sure if it left the house. Did you vote for him last year? I mean, not with his, like, sit there or a couple years ago. We did one time. Yeah. We did one time.

The first time I was allowed to vote, Jack helped me fill the form. I said what I wanted. I didn't just go, I didn't just go. Yeah, I know. Pink party. I didn't just do that. Whatever. Is there a pink party?

So you're a likely voter. Well, you voted for him. I'm a a likely vote you think that's what that means i've got a theory in this new election that i don't believe you know most people will say go out there and vote i don't believe anyone should vote i don't i don't like either candidate i reckon no one votes no just them just those two old bastards have to go in the fucking booth and give it a go what if they can do it properly on an iPad without any help, they fucking win. They get to run the free world. Wow.

That'd be tough for both of them. You'd FaceTime Biden and he'd hold it next to his ear. Hey, it's good to see you. What's all that malarkey about, Putin? What does margin of error mean you've heard that and how should this be interpreted by the public margin of error is the okay so if they say the poll says the president's approval rating at the moment is i believe it at the moment it's something like 38 it's it's like in that sort of 30 to 45 it's quite low at the moment right and which is weird because the economy's booming but where the economy doesn't matter as much with polls as it used to because now we're more tribal with our way of doing things but anyway i know that because dr sanji said it on the tv oh what

shit man anyway so so if the margin of error is i would say 10 above and 10 below that's the margin of error where the poll might be wrong okay so how should the public interpret that um when when when they see something when they say the president's approval rating is 45 the polls say that he is going to win the election by a little bit because the other guy is even lower than him or even higher than him um but it's too close to call because the polls aren't exact we have this margin of error are there any particular demographic groups that are historically more difficult to reach in polling and how do pollsters address this issue white australians between the age of 40 and 50.

And I'll tell you why. Tough to reach? No one's reached. There's been no reaching. Okay. I must be extraordinarily tough to reach. You mean in this country? Go on my social media. I'm really easy to find.

I'm like the easiest person to find in this country. I'm going to say white Australian immigrants between 40 and 50. Final answer. Okay. Correct. What are exit polls? You've heard that for two right uh exit yeah exit polls exit polls yeah are the last polls before the result we're going to see

so this is the last one everything's the polls leading up we have a poll we have a poll we have a poll exit polls say this is your final poll the polls are at the door right there's no more polls going to be here okay we have a few more questions i think that's right you know i don't know i actually don't know what exit polls are i hear it every election and i have no clue exit polls say this is your sounds like josh is laughing so i don't know if you're your final your final poll before the decision on whatever your polling is about to be made okay uh how do political campaigns and organizations use polling data? You already answered that, but we'll talk about that when it comes up.

All right. What role does the media play in reporting and interpreting political polling data? They tell us. Sure. Without them, the information doesn't get to us. Yeah. That's the media for you. Yeah.

What do you mean, what do they do? Okay, sometimes they can run their own polls. polls which yeah i've got i've eaten something sometimes they can run it's coming back yeah yeah it's coming back man sometimes i just went and saw ghostbusters in the cinema a lot of popcorn that was a real buttery burp that one anyway sometimes what are we talking about media the, the role they play in political polling. Media, right, what media do is media will obviously give us the information. They will actually probably help to distribute the information in the sense that they would get people to help poll,

but then they also can run polls themselves. So who's to say what's more official? It's like when you have collector cards. You've got these ones, Don Russell, Panini, or something like that. And then you've got some bloke scribbling on a bit of paper. His ones aren't worth as much, right? But one day they could. One day the Golden Globes could be as big as the Oscars

if they put the effort in. True. I don't even know what you're talking about either anymore. So I zoned out in the middle of that. This is where his confidence score is coming from. Last question. What are some key differences between political polling in the United States and in other countries or regions around the world?

I believe that in the United States that political polling... You've lived in two countries. Three countries. Three countries. I'm thinking back to the other countries I've lived in. They don't mention the Poles as much in the other countries, right? They don't talk about it as much. Also, you can't campaign for anywhere near as long as you do in America.

I don't think anywhere else on earth campaigns as long as the Americans do. So I believe that America, with their freedoms, would be able to have as many polls as possible. And I believe in other countries, maybe you'd have to have authorized polls that are authorized by a governing body that is impartial. This podcast is sponsored by BetterHelp. I'm a big advocate of therapy. I can safely say that without therapy, I might not even be here.

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Void in Ontario. Eligibility and other restrictions apply. One per opted in new customer. $5 wager required. Max. $100 in casino credits awarded, which require one time play through within 168 hours. See terms at casino.draftkings.com slash promos restrictions apply. Josh, how you doing there?

How did Jim doing his knowledge of political polling zero through 10, 10 is the best. Do it just as, as a whole or question by question? Just no, as a whole accuracy, question by question just no as a whole accuracy how do you do zero three yeah if you appalled on my answers what what would be my approval writing i'm gonna give him a six oh that's good that's good that's as the president some of those answers were like you were obviously joking but you were more spot on i think than you might know yeah man hey all right my approval

rating six six how do you doing confidence oh nine yeah yeah it was pretty high today i'm not confident uh did i drive here uh that's 15 i'm uh i'm pretty hungry i'm trying to lose weight so i'm trying to eat less so uh i'll give you a 10 on etc poland hey there you go nice pretty good you like poland you love poland poland i've always said should be the name of a strip club. All right. Right down the road from Lapland. Lapland and Poland should be competing on one strip. Lapland doesn't make sense from Poland.

What do you mean Lapland? It's lap dances. I know, but Poland's a country. What's Lapland? Lapland's a place. Okay. You don't know what Lapland is? Lapland's a real place You don't know what Lapland is? Lapland's a real place

You can keep saying it Lapland's the greatest place on earth Okay Google Lapland Yeah you Google it Lapland Lapland Alright I'm doing it

Are you talking about Latvia? It's in Finland It's in Finland It's a place Lapland Who knows that? Why is Lapland so famous? It's the best place in the world to see

Yeah yeah It's a beautiful place Lapland Snow buildings it's the best place in the world to see yeah yeah it's a beautiful place lapland snow buildings there's igloos and ice saunas and people travel from all over the world to see that land and you're like how am i supposed to do this i've taken you around the world forest i've shown you beautiful sights first question what's the difference between a poll and a survey uh jim said a survey asked multiple questions polls narrow it down then said some other stuff yeah i don't know josh what's the difference between a poll and a survey uh jim said a survey asked multiple questions polls narrow it down then said some other stuff yeah i don't know josh what's the difference between a poll and a survey uh they kind of set you up here jim because there's really no difference

there used to be a difference but now really the difference is only actually just in how we talk about it um more you'll see more commercial organizations and the media use poll, whereas in academic spaces, they use the word survey. There used to be a difference, but as of right now, there's really not. So are we allowed to use the word poll

for everything now? Because it used to just be surveyed. But if you're on a TV show, it's a gossip show, and they're on Bravo, and they're talking about the Real Housewives, and they go, Oh, surveys have shown that Jenny's not popular anymore. Family feud.

Oh, yeah. Survey says. Survey says. Good work, Jack. Is Family Feud, should Family Feud be called Family Poll, which is also a porno I've seen. Family shit feud would be called family poll, which is also a porno I've seen.

I'm not calling it family poll. Steve Harvey would tear the shit out of family poll. If you get deep enough on the internet, maybe there is a family poll. I don't think you need to go too deep. Yeah, that's the internet. You just have to scratch the surface of the internet hello Google F.A. family poll

explain the basics of how political polling works and why it is important to the political landscape Jim said it is necessary you ask a series of questions I would vote this way I won't vote that way maybe a little bit better detail than that how does political polling work I think I better detail than that how does how does political

i think i said more than that yeah i know i can't write everything yeah we only got an hour yeah i mean i guess that wasn't the greatest answer i the way i describe it is it's like soup right so uh if you have a big pot of soup and it's 30% beans, like 10% broth, 15% chili or something like that. And I gave you a spoonful of that pot of soup and the spoonful was 30% beans, 10% broth. And it was representative of the pot. You wouldn't need to eat the whole pot to know whether it's too hot or it's too cold. It needs salt. It needs pepper. That's kind of what we're doing with political polling. You're just taking a sample of the opinions in an electorate survey says that's a gumbo gumbo yeah that was a really good way of explaining it but i was stuck on 10% broth to be fair to you i think you need to be 40% How many beans

The broth ratio Survey says this soup is weird You can't tell a fat guy anything like that Wait a second There's chili in it Who made this? That is a good analogy I like that

So it's got to be representative of the whole Soup's a good thing Because all the ingredients are mixed together. So you can't just do it from a section. Yeah, but sometimes when I get soup, I will try and cheat. And I'll just get like some more. You can't go to the bottom. You can't survey a roast dinner.

That's called bad sampling and polling. Yeah. Like if you survey a roast dinner, one cunt's just going to have peas. Yeah. Sounds weighted is my guess so one cunt's gonna have peas is my new t-shirt i'm selling at yigs so that's gonna sell trademark it right now all right so it's just uh it's a it's a accurate sample god okay cool how do pollsters select who they're going to pull um probably from the census, Jim said. That's that's not all the way wrong.

I mean, the census can be involved. There are lists that you can get from what's called the voter file. Each state will have one that can be involved. And basically there's two ways. There's probability sampling and non-probability sampling. Probability sampling is just when you make sure that the people that you're grabbing from that list are randomized. So everybody has an opportunity of being a part of the survey. Statistically speaking, that's a better survey. The non-probability is when you just kind of take

the first 500, first 600, which will increase those margin of errors and how do they how do they select and how do they reach out to you to do the poll because i'm very skeptical of anything that asked me to do anything on the internet or any bit of paper i think everything's a scam now i think everyone's trying to hey do you want to answer a few questions i'm like i don't know so how do they get to you yeah i mean that mean, that right there, actually, and we'll probably talk about this in one of the other questions, but that's becoming one of the issues to getting very pointed polls is because people just don't want to pick up the phone to random numbers. So usually you can end up in a poll by either being called randomly, joining what's called an online panel where you're a part of a group of people who they will reach out to or sometimes people conduct polls in person they'll just grab people off the street get their demographics and ask them questions but aren't you just going to get the answers from a

lot of 80 year old people who are lonely because my dad answers phone numbers that that he doesn't know because oh someone to chat to huh no caller in a poll you'll have quotas so if you have a specific number of or percentage of 80 year olds uh that you need in that poll you might get that earlier because there's more of them willing to answer the poll once you've hit your quota you got to get this other demographic to make sure that the poll is representative and also you got to get them early because they could die i thought you were gonna say to say go to sleep. I thought you were going to say take a nap. It really went dark. Anything could happen.

They're old. Or they could become president. How accurate are polls? Jim said fairly accurate. He thinks they're 85% accurate. I think fairly accurate is a good answer. They're a lot more than 85% accurate. You actually want a poll to be what is called at the 95% confidence interval. If it's anything less than that, you can pretty much throw it away. And over time, if we're talking about presidential polls, they've only missed at about one and a half to two percent margins since we've started representative polls in 1932 oh wow so so when we say the polls say this just take it as a given

you want to look at some other things you want to make sure that they're releasing their methodology you want to make sure that the margin of error you said 10 10 that's way too big you want a margin of error that's like three percent or two but if it's within the you know if it's if it's outside of the margin of error then yeah i always lie about the size of my poll by about 10 how do you confirm the confidence of a poll but that yeah yeah that's a good one how do you confirm the call what's that through through trial and error how do you confirm the confidence of a poll, Jeff asked? So that confidence number is actually related to how they get the sample.

And then the margin of error percentage is in regards to how big the sample is. So when you asked earlier, is this a science? It's a social science, right? And there's a lot of statistics involved, right? If you have a big enough sample that is representative to the population you're trying to talk to, statistically, your margin of error can be really small. Now, there's other things that actually change that confidence interval and change that margin of error, like how we ask questions, right? And Jim

actually pointed out something that was very real. how they ask questions can change the percentage that these you know answers are actually good or bad um and then there's waiting and all these other things that actually change the margin of error um what is waiting we can jump ahead to that jim said it's it's what uh all my girlfriends do that was a joke okay pulls that lean a certain way i forgot there was a joke in there yeah yeah he wasn't he wasn't all the way wrong um basically basically wait waiting is is essentially a tool that corrects for over or under representation in surveys right so without adjustment a poll tends to over represent people who are easier to reach like the 80 year old grandma grandpa, grandpa that you're just talking about.

Right. And underrepresent people who are harder to reach, like 40 year old Australian comedians. Right. And so waiting is essentially when you adjust your results or your data so that it accurately represents whatever your target population is. Right. So if you have a poll, let's say, because 30 something percent of Americans are college educated, right? And say you're making a poll, you're putting together the people in it, and you're looking at the respondents, and half are men and half are women. That's representative of the country. That's good. But you find out your sample is 60% college educated. Your sample is way too smart. So all of your responses are going to be too smart. They're probably going to be more democratic, right? College educated people

are more likely to be pro-choice and anti-gun and things like that. So you would downweight the folks that say that they are democratic and upweight folks that say that they are Republican so you can get an even sample and even results i i studied musical theater at university and didn't graduate but i'm anti-gun and pro-abortion so pretty smart for someone who it's pretty good man pretty i'm pretty good i'm pretty fucking liberal fellow aren't i pretty um yeah it is interesting too we were talking about the question before that about the confidence level and stuff too or how or how to know how to trust a poll. But sometimes, like, you'll be like, I don't watch Fox News.

And I'm just using an example. I was in the airport that day, and it said a Fox News poll, and I'm already like, I'm out. I'm not listening to this poll. It's going to be. I don't like any American news, I've decided. I don't like any of it. It's going to be weighted wrong. You know what the problem with American news is? It's never the news. The news't like any of it. It's going to be weighted wrong. You know what the problem with American news is?

It's never the news. The news is meant to be new. It's meant to be what just happened. They're always talking about, and Trump's going to get indicted, and there's this thing. What channel are you watching? Because if you watch CNN or Fox, the main ones, I only watch it on the airplanes anyway.

I switch back and forth to say, oh, what that side's saying, what that side's saying. And then you watch a bit of MSNBC and then all that. But I like news in other countries. BBC World I like. Yeah. Right? I like news in other countries.

In Australia, everyone watches the news at 6 o'clock. We watch it for an hour. And it's on the TV. They have those on like NBC and CBS. And those are- But no one watches them. Well, I think they do. And regional.

I would say actually more people watch local news on stuff that's going on in their house than people who watch cable yeah i like i don't mind a bit of local news i like to know when there's a bake sale in the town where i'm at and and i like to watch morning news of the town that i'm in where i'm about to perform that day so i'll watch good morning cleveland for example because then i might be able to chat about the, I know about whatever's going on. You know what I mean? And I also like a local weatherman. There's nothing more fun to me than a local weatherman.

They always put a bit of jokes in there. They do. They're excited. What's the main guy in LA? Rainy, what's his name? I don't know. The guy, his name's like Rainy Day. Dallas Rain.

Dallas Rains. Dallas Rains. Dallas Rains is orange as fuck. what's his name i don't know the guy his name's like rainy day dallas rain dallas rains dallas rains dallas range is orange as fuck he's got great hair and he's just called dallas rains i love that very bright smile yeah he's good to go he's good to go he could tell me there's going to be a hurricane and still keep watching well of course i'd keep watching that's big news yeah so where's the hurricane gonna hit yeah what i'm saying is i would keep watching. It's big news. Yeah, yeah. So where's the hurricane going to hit? Yeah, turn it off. Well, what I'm saying is I would keep watching him and I wouldn't batten down the hatches. Yeah, yeah, yeah.

Well, my point was, so when you see something like when it's like a Fox News, then you can just, it might not be, but is it safe to assume that it might be weighted wrong? Is that like the correct use of that term then? I wouldn't immediately discount any poll that you hear about on Fox News. I mean, I've had polls that have ended up on Fox News, and I would say I'm far from a right-leaning guy.

Sometimes the numbers are the numbers, and they're regulated by boards that are making sure you're doing things statistically right. What I would be a little cautious of is how they talk about the numbers. Ooh, ooh, ooh. They put a little spin on it. If they extrapolate from those numbers and turn it into a story, I would be a little more cautious about that.

I have an answer to give me an extra point. Jim's excited about something. I have an answer to give me an extra point. What's going on, boy? I'll tell you. He's where the polls have got it wrong. Hillary Trump. For your answer?

Yeah, Hillary Trump. Hillary Trump. Okay, I'll jump. I'll go to that question right now. Hillary Trump. And I'll tell you why. Because we were working on the Jim Jefferies show, and a lot of people think that we went onto the Jim Jefferies show

to bash Donald Trump each way. Couldn't be further from the truth. Did I not say in the writer's room, if we don't have to mention Trump, don't mention Trump each way. Couldn't be further from the truth. Did I not say in the writer's room, if we don't have to mention Trump, don't mention Trump. Yeah. Was like one of my rules. And in the end,

I would say the last 30 plus episodes, we didn't. We didn't. Maybe even more. Because I felt like it fueled the guy too much. And also, I don't want to piss off half the bloody country. I just wanted to make a fun show.

And you know, you're saying the answer to this question. No, no, I'm just going to tell a little story very quick. So the pilot episode of the Jim Jefferies show was meant to be four days after the election. And all we had written is an episode of TV where Hillary had won.

And then I left the office and she was winning by a mile. I was like, all right, see you all tomorrow. And I came back and we had to write a whole new show from top to bottom because none of us expected that to happen now maybe that was just a poll in our office but i believe the world was in shock when that happened that was the pilot oh yeah the pilot even trump was in shock even he was in shock yeah so i'm gonna say clinton trump so can you name any historical examples of major polling errors or controversies and what lessons we learned you're saying clinton clinton trump and i'm going to keep my florida answers florida and the cubans and ellian uh josh i don't know about the florida one i believe there was just

a counting era more so than a pool polling era but yes uh the hillary trump president so it depends on what you're asking if they were wrong on they were wrong on how the electoral college was going to shape out. But they were right that Hillary Clinton was going to win the popular vote, which she did. Right. So, yeah, there was some errors there, mainly because non-college educated white voters were not waited for properly in those people's polls. Because at that time period, being college educated or non-colle college educated was not something that pollsters were accounting for, because it wasn't really changing how people were voting. Donald Trump kind of came and sparked a fire in that college educated voters,

and they turned out at a rate that the pollsters did not predict. So it's that election that changed that. So I just want to say, because I got a six out of 10, I would have gotten a seven with that answer. Correct. You're still Poland. I would have. I just want to add that. I got a six out of ten, I would have gotten a seven with that answer, correct? You're still Poland. Yeah, but I would have gotten, I just want to add that. I'd give you like 6.4. Yeah, yeah, yeah. But yeah, I can't believe I didn't think of that.

I thought you were going to get that one for sure. When I was looking at the questions, I was like, there's one. It just didn't enter my head. I just didn't think about it until now. So you're saying the college-educated voter, that wasn't a real big thing before that election or polling? Some pollsters accounted for whether or not you're college educated or not, but some didn't. In a poll, you can only account for so many variables, right?

It's not going to be a poll of a thousand respondents is not going to be representative of how many Americans are Uber drivers, right? Like you can count for so many things, race, gender, age. And at that time period, whether or not you were college educated, didn't really change how you saw politics. That election, we realized that Trump did something different to non-college educated white voters. And so now every poll that's worth its salt is waiting for non-college educated white voters, making sure that the percentage that they are in that poll is the exact percentage that they are of the population that they're talking about, whether it's the country or the state or whatever.

What challenges do pollsters face in reaching an accurate prediction of election outcomes and how they attempt to overcome these challenges? Jim said, apathy is the greatest enemy. Apathy is the greatest enemy. Maybe, Matt can be right, actually. That is exactly right. Nice. Nice.

Jim, another soundbite for you. Poland, Poland, Poland. That's exactly right. There's other challenges, of course. Mode is a challenge, how you're reaching people, right? So if you're conducting a phone poll, really you're only surveying people who have phones. Believe it or not, everybody in America doesn't have a phone. Some people only use landline. If you're doing an online poll. Everybody doesn't have access to

the internet, right? So you have some other challenges in reaching people, but he's absolutely right. Apathy, people not wanting, not trusting institutions. That's another thing that's related to Trump. Him being at the highest stage, consistently saying things like, you can't trust the polls, can't trust the election, can't trust... Then we would call folks and they'd be like, oh, you're one of those people who are trying to make Trump look bad and hang up. And instead of just saying, like, I like Trump and adding to his favorability, they're hanging up the phone, right?

And it made it just that much harder to actually get accurate representations of how people feel about things. Right, but couldn't you guys have a separate poll, people who hung up and said, you're one of those people? Yeah. And then just put that in the Trump column. We know how they're voting.

Yeah, maybe. Yeah, but they want it to be as accurate as possible. I mean, you can insinuate that, but you have to make them... No, it's a separate poll. People to make them. It's a separate poll. People who hung up. It's a separate, I'm not. That's a whole poll.

Democrat, Republican, people who hung up. People who hung up and told me to fuck myself. Yeah, how did they hang up? Yeah, yeah. And said, yeah. And just yelled, I'm wearing a red hat. You figure it out oh boy um in the era of increasing polarization how do pollsters ensure their questions are

unbiased and do not favor one political ideology over another one that's where jim was talking about they start sentences with imagine if and what do you reckon they don't start with we all know democrats are the worst. Democrats, what do you reckon? I think you're right again. Yeah, I mean, in a way, that's exactly right. I mean, there is the polling board that pretty much, they put out journals and reviews on how to word certain questions because you can create what's called acquiescence bias. If you write a question in a way that makes you want to agree, makes you want to vote for a

certain person, for sure. That is one of the ways that you can stop polarization. There's other things you can do with the language too. Like whenever we ask, you know, who do you believe is better at handling the economy, the Republicans or the Democrats will do what's called rotating. So half of the respondents will get that Democrats first and the other half will get Republicans first. So it doesn't seem like the pollster is putting it in a priority order. But yeah, I mean, that's a good answer. That's that's for sure. One of the ways I see. That's interesting. the questions yeah cool um what is a likely voter how are they determined jim said he will likely vote he just doesn't want to line up i don't know if that was an answer but yeah i'm a likely voter like i i want to do it but just make it an app on

your phone well you know they just send it by mail like how far are we from the app on the phone i don't trust that i send checks to people and fucking one out of ten times they don't get there i get fucking credit cards sent to me through the post one out of ten times they don't get a special box yeah the mailbox no no it's a different box for voting you can mail it or you can go to the voting box that's what i do and then like and then i think josh wanted to answer you on how far are we from apps? Yeah, how far are we from apps? We're pretty far from apps. Okay.

I mean, Russia just just meddled in our election, so we're far from it. Yeah, I don't think, you think people don't trust it now. I think with apps, people would not trust voting at all. Yeah.

I reckon it should be a photo app, so that you can obviously, face recognition, everyone wants, you get on, are they left hand or right hand for voting yeah you do this you lean like they do in the challenges or you do the tiktok thing and you walk you know you just you literally just tinder it swipe left swipe right

we all know what's the left is and we know what the right is and you swipe up for super like i would say we're actually we're probably closer to going back to paper ballots than we are to apps just because there is so much contention about the outcomes of elections because of the way that president trump spoke about this last one with there were there was an election in iowa that used ipads but you have to show up and use them. And it went poorly. And it messed up the count. And so I don't think we're going to be using technology anytime soon. Because of the old people. Now, in Australia, I don't know if you know this,

but in Australia, it's compulsory to vote. And you have to pay a fine every time. If you don't vote, you have to pay like $100. And so everyone has to show up. But it's very easy to register. You just show up with your driver's license. It's not like here where you have to before and you have to show your allegiance to either side maybe your primaries and all this type of bullshit right so in australia you all have to vote and it's good because you have to vote when you're 18 and um most people go to their old high

school to vote it's in a whole and it's like the first time you see see all the people you went to school with since you left school. The reunion. Yeah, you're just like, oh, that's everyone's first vote. Anyway, when I was 15 years old, my mother always used to work for the election and count votes. When I was 15 years old, the Australian government gave me a job to count votes. Oh, God. If you knew me at 15, that wasn't a good thing to do i know you now and and so so literally i remember sitting getting a box a cardboard box

a cardboard box of votes and just tipping it out on the floor at 15 years old and then i sat in the middle of they were all on the floor and then some old bloke came up and he was like in his 80s all it was was 15 year olds and 80 year olds that was the only people doing this fucking job there was no one in between right and my mum and she was 80 when she was 40 anyway so so we're all i'd sit on the floor and the guy goes put all the different mums in different. And so the Australians had the Liberal, Labor, and then there was like the Green Party and there was a few other parties that came in. And that's what I did. I put them in piles.

They didn't let me count, but I stacked all the piles up ready to go to pass on to the older people to count. Do you think that's a good idea? I don't think that's a good idea. Well, Australia is... I mean, maybe forcing people to vote. I like that a little bit. Maybe them going back to their high school is a little much. Some of us are not.

I feel like some people wouldn't even... Oh, I didn't enjoy high school. That's why I didn't... It was only been one year I hadn't spoken to any of them. How much do you get fined if you don't vote? I believe it's like a hundred bucks now or something. It's something like that. But when my first sort of,

they don't ask me anymore because I'm not an Australian resident. I'm an Australian citizen, but I'm not Australian resident. So they don't, but my first five years in Britain, I just got the fine and paid it because I didn't think it was fair for me to vote in an election in a country where I haven't watched the news for years. It's a $20 fine. It's $20? Okay, well...

I thought it was $100. Fake news. When you said $100, I just remembered that a friend of mine got fined. I thought I paid $50. The reason I said $100 is because I thought I was paying $50 back in the day. No, I think you're right because when you said that, it occurred to me that a friend of mine didn't vote one time and they got fined. I'm sure it's more than $20.

If you have received a notice for not voting at a federal election, by election or referendum, and wish to pay the $20 administration penalty, you can do so, blah, blah, blah. Here's where it gets a little bit ropey, right? Because my mother worked for the elections when the elections happened. And so one of her jobs was she counted the votes. And then another job she did, she used to have to go around the nursing homes and used to go up to the people and go and how would you like to vote and they'd and they go all right mr president just take a minute no no anyway so they

they go into the nursing homes my mother would go this sounds bad too this is true and into hospitals people in their fucking deathbed man people. People, they go in there as long as they are considered of sound mind. Would you like to vote or pay us $20? But I have people who I know are not sound mind that vote in this country. So, you know what I mean? They may be in this room. Did we answer likely voters, Josh, what a likely voter is? How are they determined?

No. Okay, yeah. Can you do that, please? I answered it. So, a likely voter in a poll is determined by, this can get complicated. I'm going to keep it really high level. Whether you voted,

it's if you voted in two out of the last three elections, usually. If there's some pollsters that are listening that they might do it a little differently, but you can be a part of what's called a likely voter model. And that's when they ask a series of questions that are just like, you know, how much have you thought about the election? What is the last time that you X, Y, Z? Just these election adjacent questions and they score you. And then that puts you in a maybe a likely voter category if they're not doing the two out of three.

if they're not doing the two out of three. And the reason why some people don't do the last two out of three is there are 20 states, 25 states, where you can't get access to the voting records. So you don't really know if somebody voted two out of the last three times. So they find a way to get around it. Now, I used to have this debate with my writer's room, and I think this is because my writer's room for the Jim Jefferies show, or not for this podcast, evidently, but for the Jim Jefferies show, or not for this podcast, evidently.

But for the Jim Jefferies show, we had a diverse group of people from different backgrounds, different races and that type of stuff. And I was always a little bit Republican when it came to, I think you should have to show ID when you vote. And I think that's because coming from Australia, you have to show ID when you vote. And it's compulsory to vote. and so we're forced to actually vote and uh forrest doesn't agree with me on this forrest thinks this is well you i don't think you understand everything that goes into getting an id though that's what that was but i do i've got one no i know but i've got a few of them i know but but you have you have to have one to buy alcohol you have to have money to buy an id to get an id and time and money to buy an ID, to get an ID.

And time to get it and go to the DMV. Okay, well then this- But I don't know. I don't know. Okay, also, okay, let's change it again. I believe IDs should be free. They should be part of the taxpayer's money, that we should all be getting IDs.

That's a whole other story, yeah. If the government wants us to have IDs, it should be a free thing. You don't have to have one if you don't want people in your thing and you want to live off the grid or whatever, right? But if you want to vote, what other option is there? Just go and you should believe I'm this person. I don't know, Josh.

Do you have any? Because people are very passionate about this. Please educate me why it's wrong or why it's right or what the debate on that is. I think if you were required or if ids were free i think that that opens up the conversation to you should you should need an id to vote for sure i but a lot of what forrest is saying is is absolutely right um a spark going back to what you were saying about it being required to vote if there was a like if voting day was like a holiday, I would say that that would be better.

Public holiday in Australia. Every state had early voting. But what's that? We get a day off in Australia to vote. Just check that, Jack, so people don't write to me. But I'm pretty sure in Australia, it's a public holiday. Yeah, I hear that. And then when you – public holiday, we get the day off to vote.

And then outside, you get a free sausage in a bit of bread with a bit of uh ketchup on it called a sausage sizzle you get that for free election day is always held on saturday day off but i you know the real id that i just got the new real ids whatever it was like a hundred i forget it was maybe 120 some people don't have and not only they not have that they're not allowed to take work off to go to the DMV or any of that other stuff. But how do they fill out, every time I go to the doctor,

I need an ID. I just got my passport renewed and it was like 190 bucks. I know, but how do you navigate through this world without identification? I don't know.

And like, I know people are poor, I know people are struggling, but you're not going to get a great job without identification. You're not going to get a great job without identification. You're not going to take that next step in life. I feel like it's almost a fun circle. I think these are the people that you're talking about.

You said, how do they go to the doctor? I think a lot of them don't have healthcare. The emergency room is their primary care. And a lot of them don't have great jobs. Some of them do, but a large percentage don't, I believe. It's like the majority of people probably do have IDs, but you don't want to but a large percentage don't i believe yeah it's like the majority of people probably do have ids but you don't want to exclude the few that don't well i believe it i believe it worked against republicans when they they tried to push it through there was

some state election i heard where they thought that um people with ids oh no it was it was the uk elections the uk they said people have to show their ID or something, and it backfired against the right-wing party. I can't remember exactly how, so I should shut my mouth. Everyone go Google that. No, it backfired. It backfired. More people actually came out with IDs.

It's something that didn't work. What does margin of error mean, and how should this be interpreted by the public? Jim said 10% above and below where the poll number is. I know you kind of addressed that already. Yeah, other than the percentage he gave, he was also very, he was right. Yeah, that's what your margin of error is. It basically tells you, you know, if somebody, if I say something like,

because you can do nonpolitical polling as well. Because you can do nonpolitical polling as well. I say something like 50% of, 55% of people have been on a vacation in the last year or so. The margin of error is three points. That could be anywhere above 55%, three points above 55%, or three points below. So you don't want a 10-point margin of error, especially if you're trying to predict an election that could come down to like a percentage point or two. A good margin of error is somewhere under 4 percent. And how is the margin of error being calculated as well? I'd be too complicated, but.

No. Well, functionally, the margin of error really is only accounted for by the sample size of the poll, which can be a little misleading sometimes because there are other types of error. Like I said, there's acquiescent bias, there's design error, there's weighting errors that don't always end up in the margin of error. So sometimes in the media, you'll hear about a poll that has a very small margin of error. But if you look through the methodology, there are other error points that aren't really being reflected in the margin of error sometimes um and how do we stop people lying that's a big question that the courts obviously want to know as well so how do we how do we like okay so you know when you go to the doctor and the doctor goes like back when i was drinking and smoking all that stuff they go how how much do you drink and you, I'll give a bum answer here

because I don't want to get in trouble with a doctor. And as you get older, you give the correct answer because you don't want to die. Yeah. Right? But if like, okay, on like an insurance form, right? Have you ever had a blah, blah, blah? And you go, don't answer that.

That won't go well for me. Have you ever suffered from any depression? You tick the no box because you're like, fuck it, I'm not going to answer this question. So how do we stop? How much margin of error is there for people who might want to be swinging a pole in a certain direction against what they believe?

Yeah, so there's some things you can do to account for people who are trying to purposefully uh uh mess up your poll especially if it's online they're called speeders you can see how quickly they react they respond to the question right so if it's like yes yes yes yes yes you toss toss those out of your poll uh if it's on the if it's on the phone it's a little bit more difficult but this is this is something that also had an effect in the 2016 election that you were talking about. Right. Like just like people lie to their therapists, people lie to their pollsters. And there's something called social desirability bias. It was not socially desirable to like Donald Trump at one point. Right. So sometimes folks on the phone with their pollsters were like, I'm undecided. But then they went and voted for Trump. I'm undecided. But then they went and voted for Trump. One thing that we did and we actually stole this from Tony Fabrizio, who's Trump's pollster, a good guy, a very smart pollster, is instead of just asking folks, are you going to vote for Trump or are you like Biden? They would ask, do you like Trump personally but not politically? Do you like him politically but not personally?

Giving some more range there for people to chip, no matter which one you click out of those two, you're going to end up in the Trump favorability bucket, right? But because you have a little more range to explain yourself, people are less likely to lie about it. Oh, very smart. So little things like that you can do. Because I reckon there's people who lie about who they voted for within their marriage.

I reckon there's blokes in this country who voted for Trump who told their wife they didn't because their wife would be furious. You know what I mean? That's right. And what was I talking about? And another way to tell if someone's lying is if if if by their voice if you do it over the phone if there's a bloke he's like this tell you what i don't care about those emails those emails didn't matter to me whatsoever i think everybody with that voice and i think

like if you can hear him like loading a gun and doing that he's loading a gun like if you can hear him like loading a gun and doing that he's loading a gun he's loading a gun and he's he's teenage daughter's pregnant in the house and he's just like this tell you what those emails didn't bother me nothing they're all right that woman wears a fine pantsuit are there any i did some polling in georgia and you'd be surprised. I heard some folks with that type of voice, that type of withdrawal that were not. I was doing, I was doing a very nasty stereotype there,

you know, because I'm always amazed by, so I, you know, for a while there, I'm, I'm the anti-gun comedian and stuff like that. And then,

you know, we're, we'd go like when we were in Oklahoma city the other day, right? We weren't, not what's the other place. I go to Tucson. Yeah.

Right. We were in Tucson and the crowd that, and and we went out afterwards we met a few people they were the nicest people in in the i remember in reno i stopped you in full combat gear yeah and he was like you do want to tell the gun joke and then he was like good joke yeah yeah i like guns i like guns but i tell you, that's a good joke. We're not expecting that. People always surprise you. They really do.

They really do. Are there any particular demographic groups that are historically more difficult to reach in polling? And how do pollsters address this issue? Jim said white Australians between the age of 40 to 50. Yeah, I'm 47. I was being very broad there. I could have gone 45 to 50 but i thought maybe people think i'm younger um this is exactly right yeah there there are immigrants is is one of them

for sure um people of color people who live in rural communities that don't have access to cell phones uh people who don't have access to the internet, language barriers, right? Folks that like kind of only speak one language, but you're pulling them in another one. And this is actually the issue that created Hit Strategies, the polling firm that I work at, which is the largest minority owned public opinion firm in America. We specialize at creating methodologies that capture otherwise underrepresented, representative demographics in america um so yeah no i mean you you jokingly saying ignorance is exactly right

oh i meant it because no one's ever polled me and i've i know other white australians between the ages of 40 and 50 and they they haven't been polled either i took a poll by the way i mispronounced i said hit strategies it's hit strategies yeah that worked out well h.i.t yeah it's like that university in boston mitt wait but that is the other way what are exit polls uh jim said the last poll before the result we are going to see you laughed j, Josh, when he said that. So close. I laughed because he was so close.

It's actually the poll right after you come out of the voting booth. What's the point of that one? We don't need that one. It's already done. I never knew what an exit poll was until now. I don't know. Oh, well, we get the good answer. It's when you exit the polls.

So the exit polls must be very close. If people are telling the truth, they'll be 100%. They're usually very close. But then sometimes because of the media wanting to report what's happening in this precinct or this state so quickly, sometimes you'll see some error in it just because they're not handling it with care. mirror in it just because they're not handling it with care. And sometimes exit polls actually can be bad for democracy because they will start reporting certain states while other states haven't even really started voting yet. And it kind of can influence other states and things like that. So they're a little, I'm up and down about exit polls. I like them, but not that much.

I know this from the West Wing because in the West Wing, when Leo McGarry dies, he's running for vice president, that happens on election day, and they're not done voting in California. And the exit polls, yeah, that's a whole... Anyway, it's another West Wing reference there. Yeah, of course. It talks a lot about early 2000s TV programming. It's good writing. Aaron Sorkin.

I like to... Whenever we do a medical episode, he always brings up MASH. Yeah, they were rapping. MASH. How do political campaign... Jack with the tag. How do political campaigns

and organizations use polling data? Jim had already sort of answered that, so I didn't ask him to answer it again, but maybe touch on that a little bit, Josh. Yeah, political campaigns and other organizations use polling data in many ways, and predicting the election is actually probably the least important of those ways. Messaging is usually one of the more important. Polls can tell candidates the most effective way to talk about their priorities. So for an example, I was working for a candidate who wanted to talk about a bill that he had passed and he wanted to campaign on it.

And the problem was the bill did a lot of things, right? So he didn't know whether to talk about how it created this many jobs or how it lowered the price of child care. And so we ran a poll, you get two representative samples, two evenly representative samples. You present one with, you know, one message and the other with another message. And then you ask both of them, does this make you more or less likely to vote for this candidate? In that case, the message about the jobs being created was like 25% more favorable. So for the rest of the campaign, we were running around reading with that. Right. Didn't mean we didn't talk about the other stuff, but we led with the jobs one.

So that's a big way that that polling can help. And then also segmenting your audience, right. A poll doesn't just tell you what to say, but it can also tell you who to say it to. Like you might find out that like your messages about fixing the roads actually does better with like white women from the suburbs. So every time you're around white women from the suburbs, you should do this. Right.

And you learn that from the demographic data and poll. They're always bitching about the roads. Here's a good one. This is a good question that you should have asked me. Why is it called a poll? Poll comes from the Germanic roots. So there's the anglo-saxon words that we have in english and then there's like all the words that were influenced from like french after the norman conquest pole came from that those germanic anglo-saxon roots i think it meant head count

whereas survey uh meant to oversee we actually have a lot of like words in english that kind of have these double meanings because of the roots of english so like cows beef and pork become like or cows become beef you know things like that uh so yeah it's it's a language thing right i'm gonna say it's because the pagans always they're up something there'd be a pole and they'd put different animals on top of the pole or something that's right headcount no no well it has to come to something headcount yeah headcount from the german but then i wasn't even thinking survey french but yeah how did you not ask that question i don't know it was right there that's the first thing well you asked it i know your podcast you ask what is a blah blah blah

why is it blah blah it is an easy first question. I don't know. That's a lie-up. I didn't know where it came from. Where did the word poll come from? Yeah, I don't know. Sometimes I don't. But I know that you're going to ask questions, so sometimes you do.

What role does the media play in reporting and interpreting political polling data? Jim says they tell us. Without them, we don't see the info info they can also ruin our own polls yeah they they do tell us that is true boom uh the media unfortunately plays a large role in how we make sense of the entire world uh and media outlets really understand how to elicit responses and they oftentimes are over dramatic with polls they overestimate they under clarify uh so a lot of times the media with like the help of some pollsters who want to make a name for themselves create these massive headlines that predict something that certainly should not be predicted confidently. It should just be predicted cautiously, but they just kind of go ahead and do it anyway. I know the answer to this question

already. Are there tons and tons of fake polls? I wouldn't say they're fake. I would say that they are misleading. People mess themselves up with this. Polls don't predict action. Polls predict collective opinions and opinions influence action sometimes. Right. presents the the numbers as if they will a hundred percent be the actions of people not understanding the nuance of what public opinion is does that make sense yeah yeah yeah so there's not like because all the uh lack of a better term fake news like because there are a lot of shit on social media that just says shit like even if you're just watching some actress look at a picture of her now and then there's no picture i always look anyway but they get me yeah they get me but then they but then i see things that are just anything that's just anything from a web page that's just called freedom now yeah i don't trust yeah freedom now reports in a poll yeah yeah um What are some of the key differences

between political polling in the United States and in other countries or regions around the world? Jim says they don't mention polls as much in other countries. You have to have authorized polls in other countries. He also said that the election cycle is shorter. So I don't know if that's not really... Three for three.

Yeah. Three for three. Yep. There's countries where you can't poll without it being authorized by the government there's questions especially political polling like there's questions you just can't ask um the election cycles are shorter so there are just like there's less of a market for pollsters right um so yeah that was all that was spot on oh so that put you out of business or shorter oh not out of business but less because business. Because I was going to ask you, you've been in the political world for a long time.

What do you think would be a better election? Even if it's a shorter election, you still have federal and state elections. No, I know you still have that, but the presidential election ramps up usually, you know, a year and a half, two years. Do you have referendums in this country? What do you mean?

Referendums. I'm going to say no because I don't really know what that means. Okay, so referendums. Referendums? It's like when you have the state things and you have all the different things. That's what I thought it was, yeah. But Australia every now and again, well, just for example, gay marriage was a referendum, right?

So they just went pro or against gay marriage, and then as soon as Australia voted pro gay marriage, they changed the law that day, right? And we've had referendums on a whole heap of different things. There was one to do with Aboriginal rights recently. There was, you know, they just pop up a referendum every now and again. It's a little- We have stuff that doesn't go to effect immediately.

Well, no, but it's just like- I feel like it only happens in election cycle. You seem to have them in election cycle. You have that big page. The Australians will just go, next month, referendum. Yeah, yeah. We don't have that. And so, like, we had a referendum on whether we'd become a republic.

Yeah. And that's the only- Just, like, randomly in the middle of the week? Yeah. Huh. Yeah. And that's the only- Just like randomly in the middle of the week? Yeah. Huh. Yeah. And that's the only election where I actually campaigned. I'm an Australian Republican in the sense that I would like my country to be its own country

and not have the union jack on the flag. I think we've been long enough. When was that? That was when I was in my early, early early 20s maybe even 19 or 20 like that and my mother was a monarchist so she wanted to stay part of the monarchy and my mother did not speak to me for four months wow she didn't talk it was it was oh you thought what you voted for i was out there picketing oh yeah picketing oh it's not picketing but i was out handing flyers out the front i i i strongly but but they they they were okay so the monarchists did something so they go

they went so we have a governor general the governor general can't do anything really there was a thing back in history and i'll go the dismissal that's a different thing we can't talk about it now right but the governor general is just a figurehead then we have a prime minister uh we don't have a president now what we would do is they go would you like that the monikers were like this if you vote for a republic there will be 47 changes to our constitution the changes were changing the word governor general to president that was the only changes just a word change not a not a rule change. But people like my dad, and my dad's a secret Republican, but he didn't want to go against my mother, would go, I'm all for it being a republic, but not under this model.

And then they go, you know who changed the constitution? And then they put pictures of fucking Hitler on the TV, right? So the old people got scared and just went, I don't want Hitler. God. And that's why we kept the Queen. And we won't have another referendum on whether we become a republic maybe in the next maybe in 10 years from now we'll have another go at it every 30 years we'll have a go what what was the question oh i think i asked what

do you have an opinion on how long you think the election do you think australia should be a republic or a monarchy it's always i i'm sad to say I don't have any opinions about Australia. But I do think that our election should be significant. That's the biggest problem we have is bloody apathy, I tell you. I'm all in favour of the election cycle being much, much shorter. I think that would be great for democracy. Just back on Australia very quickly. I think if Australians are listening,

your chance to become a republic is now the queen's dead we all like that we're big fans but it's now's the time to move yeah i don't know about this new guy okay well he might not be there long either um now is the part of our show called dinner party facts we ask our expert to give us some fact obscure interesting about the subject or uh that the audience can use to impress people you have two like ones here they're both good so you can do both yeah oh man okay let's see where's the where's the oh yeah it's in the document yeah okay uh oh yeah okay uh people a lot of people are talking about donald trump Trump potentially being in prison, which is very possible. And folks are asking, can he run for office from prison?

The answer is not only could he run, but he could actually serve from prison. Boo. Yeah. In 1920, we had Eugene Debs who ran. I think we've had two candidates actually that have ran from prison. He ran against Warren G. Harding. He was serving a 10-year sentence for seditious conspiracy against World War I. And he had a really popular quote, which is actually one of my favorite quotes,

because he was like a labor empowerment guy. And he said, while there is a lower class, I am in it. While there is a criminal intent, I am of it. And if there is a soul in prison, I am not free. So shout out to Eugene Debs, who is long dead. So we could have had Jeffrey Dahmer as president. Jeffrey Dahmer didn't last in prison very long, did he? No, no, but within the year he was there.

If he ran. Yeah, if he ran for it, he was there. I know there was one group of people who wouldn't have voted for him. He would have won all the white women in the suburbs. I'll tell you that one. All right, you can't beat that one, but let's have the next one. You can just give that one if you want. You can say the other one if you want.

No, that one. I want to hear more. I love the dinner party fact. Okay. Okay, the phrase is okay and keep the ball rolling. All come from President William Henry Harrison's political campaign where they had a really big tin and leather ball with all his slogans on it that they would roll from town to town, you know,

just as like popularizing his name to increase the amount of people that would vote for him. And they were also giving out alcohol to people. So that's a good one. So there was a big ball with slogans. Yeah, keep it rolling. There you're right. It was like a massive 10-foot ball.

They'd push it from town to town and they'd scream, keep the ball rolling. How do you keep that thing fucking clean? Give out drinks. I don't know. They was giving out booze. All right, can we bring back Big Ball? Big Ball promotions.

And you just go, I got an idea. What you got? No more malarkey. Bring back the Big Ball. Keep that ball rolling. Yeah, keep the ball rolling. It would work.

I think that would work. That would slow them. Are you buying into Biden? That's what it's going to say. Roll the ball rolling. It would work. I think that would work. That slogan would work. Are you buying into Biden? That's what it's going to say. Roll it into town. I don't like the ball. There's too many balls. What's that? Jim's impression? Who was that impression? Oh, I just did an old man American. My Trump and my Biden is the same

impersonation. I don't see old people. What? I don't see any difference between them. They're all old. They're all old to me. Joshua, Das, thanks for being here. Remember, if you want to learn more about the subject

or it talks about the intersection of politics and polling and economics, follow him on Instagram at Josh underscore Doss. That's D-O-S-S and then five, Josh underscore Doss five. Also follow him on TikTok at Applied Science 11. Thank you so much for being here, Josh. Thanks, Wallace. Appreciate you. Josh, I appreciate being on the podcast, mate.

There is dead set. There's things on this episode that I'm going to be telling people this week until I forget them. Because there's some podcasts where i'm like oh that was interesting but this one i'm i there's things i know now for the rest of me life really i know the exit poll that's the bit just before the election all right compliment have we learnt nothing Ah look If you're ever at a party

And someone comes up to you And go Ah the polls have A sort of 10% ratio Of how they could go wrong Go Go

I don't know about that And walk away Goodnight Australia Because it's 1 to 3% Alright Josh Thanks a lot You've said this podcast before I think

I'm This At the very At the very