Kitbag Conversations - Episode 16: Five Eyes on China

Episode Date: July 4, 2022

This week we are joined by Alcon S2 (@alcon.s2), a New Zealand based intelligence page dedicated to covering the INDO-PACIFIC area of responsibility (AOR). Alcon S2 and I reference our time as analysts in the Pacific theater to discuss: - Chinese expansion under the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) - Interoperability between FVEY (AUS, CAN, US, UK, NZ)  - Conventional warfare in the Pacific  - and fun personal stories in the military 

Hello everyone and welcome back. This week we are joined by Alcon S2, a New Zealand based intelligence and information page that you may have seen floating around Instagram. So Alcon, how are you doing today? Good mate, how are you? Yeah, I'm pretty good. So if you could just do a quick little background of who you are, why you started the page, you know, those P's and Q's. Sure, no worries. Firstly, mate, thanks for having me. I'm a big fan of the podcast. I've listened to a few episodes now and kind of got the gist of how you do things and what we talk about, but it's been really interesting, especially the last ones with, I think, Leaf of Mind's Journal and Great Dynamics. Those were two really good ones,

but a bit about myself then. So I spent just under 15 years with the New Zealand Army. I wasn't always intelligence. I actually started off within logistics and then I changed later on into my career. I finished my career as a senior CEO, so a staff sergeant, which I think is around kind of like the E7, E8 mark with you guys, if we look at it comparatively. Yeah, and so I had a pretty good career. So I saw Operation Service in the Middle East a couple of times deployed or on the South West Pacific. So I got a good idea of what's happening in that space and then finished my career with support to Special Operations, which was another eye-opening experience in itself. So that's me. That's kind of my background.

And then why I started All-Con S2. I started it for kind of selfish reasons initially. So the last post that I had in the Army, I was at the School of Military Intelligence. So of course, by nature of that post, it's not really operational. So you lose kind of access, you lose your essay and what's happening in the world because you're kind of focusing on doctrine. So I wanted to kind of stay up to date with what's happening in the Pacific and all the things that I used to look at and just kind of stay somewhat relevant in that space. And I thought an Instagram page would be kind of just a fun and engaging way for me to do that, rather than just spending my free time reading news reports. And I didn't really have a plan

for it, but it's kind of organically grown into what it is today with. At the moment, I think I'm over 7,000 followers, which is a massive surprise to me, especially because what I focus on is quite niche and it doesn't really cover the sexy topics such as what's happening in Ukraine and all that kind of cool stuff. But yeah, so just focusing on illuminating the Indo-Pacific and as well as Australia and New Zealand defense affairs. So I've got a relatively strong following with Australia and New Zealand service people. But I think my biggest audience is, of course, by nature of what the platform is, is the state. So it's really good to have commentary from people's stateside. And I just love the community that my page is attracted and all

the engagement that I get and the messages that people send me, I'll get some really good gen. And something fun, really funny is the pace that I run in your page as well and that kind of little community. I feel like I've got more engagement with the wider intelligence community than I kind of did when I was serving. Because when you deploy or when you work in certain operations, you kind of get stuck, get thrown to a skiff or a talk. And that's kind of where your engagement starts and that's kind of where your engagement is. But on this space, I've kind of got free reign to just talk to anyone I want and get some really good information or, you know, albeit it is open source, so you kind of have to take everything with a grain of salt. But I think

a lot of it is quite credible, which is, you know, which is cool. Man, it's one of those things I... Oh, sorry, go ahead. Austin is just going to say that, like yourself, I started off essentially to keep my analytical rating up and it just grew legs and ran. And so I was like, oh, well, I guess I should do something with this. So the community engagement is really fun. You get a wide variety of interesting messages day in and day out. So yeah, yeah, it's really cool. And I think one of the most recent posts I did, I posted some bodies write up that they did on China and the workings of the CCP and all that kind of thing. And even that's really cool. So I provide a platform now for

other people to, you know, to have a voice and kind of broadcast what they do. And it's just, yeah, it's great. I really, I really enjoy doing it, even though it does take up a lot of my time. And I think moving forward and turning it into something else or involving it, I don't really know what it's going to turn into or I don't really have a plan. But I do, you know, I do want to start at my own podcast at some point, as well as build a website, and kind of just drive some traffic through there. I've been in discussions with a few people regarding taking my skills into, you know, the private sector as well. So it's kind of cool to just to get that space. And yeah, who knows? Honestly, like the future is just a website based on how

Instagram works and their new algorithm that's coming out that's censoring everything from the word deaf to the word Russia. It's everything in between is about to get censored. So a website is definitely a smart, smart move in a podcast is definitely just a good way to keep your reach going and can't really censor a podcast unless it's deleted. So yeah, yeah. What's interesting about you yourself is there's not a lot of individuals from New Zealand doing this. I think you're the only one that I've seen at least come out of that region. Of course, Australia has a couple really good pages, but you're the only one that I've seen from New Zealand talking about essentially what's going on in the Indo-Pacific.

Yeah, yeah. And that's, I mean, that's another reason why I started it because I was actually looking for for those kind of social media pages and I couldn't find any. And I was like, okay, fire out, I'll just start one myself and see what happens. And, and yeah, and so here we are today. Yeah, I had a few people reach out to me from New Zealand, you know, they've been talking to me about starting their own one and was like, man, the more the merrier, just get on board and, and just find your niche or just do exactly the same thing as I'm doing, you know, more people focusing on this region, it can't hurt. It's only a good thing. So you really encourage anyone who's got the time and the, and the motivation to do it, then you just

get amongst it. So you seem to deploy throughout the Pacific itself and I spent some time out there. I'm pretty sure we had the same focal point. It was China, what they're doing. Are you dialed into the Belt and Road Initiative or what did you really focus on so we can use that as a launching point? So yeah, we focused on a lot of, so this is when I was in intelligence. We focused on a lot of what was going on in the Pacific and by nature of the region, you know, China is a big player there. So kind of keeping tabs on what's going on in that space. I haven't, you know, I've got a, I'm sort of familiar with the Belt and Road Initiative. So, and what it means for the Pacific, you know, I know that China signed up 10 Pacific Island nations to the Belt and Road

Initiative. And since then, you've seen China move into the region, you know, using the influence and expanding their influence via soft power and through trade. And now you're seeing them try and sign up at least these security partnerships with that most recent big one, at least in the Solomon Islands. So yeah, probably can talk about that for a while. I think it's a massive issue. It's probably one of the biggest ones. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah, man. Like I was in, I would always look at like day one, you check in and they're like, all right, by the way, get really spun up on this because this is what we're doing. And so there was, because I was in the Marine Corps, our whole goal was EABO and they're like, this is how we counter a Chinese essential, essentially

like a peer to peer conflict in the Pacific. And that was our whole goal. But then the soft power angle of the Belt and Road Initiative was number one, if not, like, if not number one, then it was a hard number two. And just looking at countries like Vietnam and how they are the pretty much the focal point in Southeast Asia, at least, that don't want to be a part of it. So China is surrounding them with their fishing vessels. And so they're local militias. And it's, we have the Spratly Islands and the Nine Dash Line in the South China Sea. Everything's going on there. And for big listeners, you don't know, that's where a lot of international commerce moves through. So it's the Strait of Gibraltar. Yeah, Strait of Gibraltar, Gaza, Cape of Good Hope,

and then the South China Sea, where there's a lot of oil reserves. And China is really trying to take a hold of that. Because to them, they say, Oh, well, it has China in the name. So it must be mine outside of it. It's a very like, almost elementary way of looking at it. It's very school, like being on the school zone. But yeah, that's how they're looking at it. It says China, so it must be mine. And so they're building their military, they're building their, their navy, and they're sending their ships down there. And what's really interesting is the US or the UN could go, Oh, well, the South China Sea is not yours. It's international water. They went, Okay, what if I move a hill from the border of Pakistan, and drop it into the Pacific? Let's see what happens

there. Oh, it's my territory, because I put it there. And then they put a same system there. And a small base in a runway. And essentially, you have just a movable aircraft carrier hanging out in the South China Sea. And then who's right next to them? The Vietnamese. So they're getting surrounded. So it's a, and that's not even mentioning what's going on with the Philippines, because they have their own insurgency, and they have their own kind of wishy-washy government, but then the Chinese are using Duarte's uneasiness, I guess, with the US to do whatever they want. But he also wants to be independent. He's very much a third party stuck in between the two powers in the region. So it's, I mean, that was a lot of topics at once, just kind of thrown out there.

But there's a lot going on just in that part of the world itself. This may be talking about Africa or the Indian Ocean area. Yeah, I mean, like through your listeners, or just if they jump on Google, if anyone's on your computer right now, jump on Google and just type in Chipping Heatmap and Google Images, and you'll see the amount of trade that goes through the East China, South China Sea, and that whole region. So, you know, even economically, if China controls that, and if they've got an inconsistent military, you know, they've pretty much dictate who goes through there, what trade goes through their cut, people off economically, which would be massive. And that's massive for the Pacific as well,

because, you know, New Zealand, Australia, a lot of our trade goes through there, especially with China being the number one trade partner. That's huge. And then with China establishing that security pact with the Solomon Islands, that's almost like our gateway, our gateway to the rest of the world. So, yeah, it's massive. And economics plays a massive part of it. Yeah, and we're trying to building up in the South China Sea amongst all those islands, as you said. You know, you don't need a carrier if you've just got an island there with all the capability on it. And I honestly do think that this problem set is probably one of the most important, if not the most important, and, you know, there's probably a bit of bias in that.

But, you know, looking ahead into the future, it's going to be the next boiling point and it's going to be massive, especially if a conflict kicks off with Taiwan. Well, 100%. And I'm fairly certain that this, the Russian invasion of Ukraine, definitely put a highlight on China's goals into Taiwan going, hmm, well, the Taiwanese are only going to learn from what the Ukrainians did. So either A, they're going to have to accelerate their military and the modernization and getting ready to do the battle drills to get ready to go into Taiwan. And that's just going to be a whole mess. And then at that point, if the US just came out and said that they, hey, they're going to defend Taiwan, then that's just, that's going to be a

mess entirely. And so outside of, because back in, back in what the 80s, 90s and early 2000s, there wasn't really a friction inside the Pacific itself. I mean, there was the East Timor crisis back in the late 90s, but that was pretty much just a humanitarian mission between Australia and New Zealand against just pro-Indonesian militia groups on the other side of an island. And so that was pretty much it. But as China modernizes, it's, it's, it's almost like there's a naval arms race going on, because once the Indians got an aircraft carrier, they got the, what was it called? They got the British aircraft carrier from that fault in the Falkland War. And then the Chinese went, Oh, well, I need an aircraft carrier. So they bought the,

they bought the Russian one that was developed by the Soviet Union the whole thing. But then, because Japan, which is a great power in the region, but is militarily restricted because of the post World War II agreement, they started building those Wazai helicopter carriers where it was just a destroyer with a flat deck. And they were like, Oh, well, we could just put enough 35 on this. And it still meets the dimensions of a destroyer. So then the Chinese went, Well, I guess I need, I guess I need more aircraft carriers. So then Australia goes, Well, I know that we are a huge, we are a huge target in the region. So then they started building their own amphibious landing craft that can bear a class helicopter landing decks. And then it's almost

like there's a military arms race in the Pacific that no one really wants to acknowledge. But yeah, where New Zealand comes in is like you said, the Solomon Islands is that's because for the listeners, New Zealand's arm or military is relatively smaller than the most native or five I nation. So would that be your like in case of any kind of war or anything? Do you think that would be where the New Zealand itself focuses on? Or since there's such an economic bond between China and New Zealand, do you think there would be a different kind of friction between them and say the US and Australia? Yeah, so this is one of the great dilemmas that I think the government has or will have in the near future. It's whether

if something kicks off right, do does New Zealand stay neutral in order to kind of appease China and maintain our economy and keep our economy going? Or do we you know, have it have it some short term pain to realign ourselves back with the west and try and look through the look through those partners in terms of trade and also align more with the west militarily to kind of counter China. So at the moment, New Zealand's kind of walking that tightrope between the two. And you see that a lot in the rhetoric coming out of the government, which is you know, which is fine and it's expected. But at the same time, I'm also noticing a really slow shift back towards the west, which is a good thing. I mean, you know, we've got the

Prime Minister attending the NATO summit, which is which is great. And she's establishing a whole bunch of different trade things there. Doesn't really have a military focus. But even just having that presence is really good. And being included in those conversations is really good for our country. And as you said, our military is really small. I think across the entire defense force, maybe, I don't know, 10,000 people, maybe, I don't know, I haven't seen the latest numbers, but I know that's kind of around where it was sitting when I left. And you know, we've got, yeah, a super small way. Yeah. Yeah. So, you know, when we talk about punching above our weight, I think we really do. And New Zealand doesn't have the best or the most capability. But

over what we do have, you know, I think we do have a good punch and we provide some really good people. And that's the biggest capability, I suppose. I think our training is second to none across all services, no matter where you serve, whether it's special operations, you know, in the front line, intelligence, whatever. Yeah, I think we've got some really good people and they get after it. But it's just the capability and the political appetite towards our military is still quite low as well. But I do think that'll change in the future. Interesting. Yeah, I know that there was, especially with Australia, since they're essentially just a massive force in the region, not because of military, just by territory itself,

it's just a huge, it's a continent, it's massive. And so they have a large, sluggish territory to defend. And so just knowing that their military is not large either. And so they're playing more of a, I wouldn't say defensive position, but they're doing a lot of, what is even the term, it's, they're working a lot with the US. Because I know when I was in, I worked with Australians a few times and they were very, very dialed into what was going on in the region. I mean, they would go out and surf and they were really cool guys, but they were like, oh, I'm, they're very serious. And so it's real quick, real quick. Is there any like, because I know New Zealand, did they send guys to the war on terror, like Iraq and Afghanistan?

Because I know they did a little bit, but I don't know to what reach or to what extent. Yeah, yeah, we've, you know, we had, we had a decent deployment in Afghanistan for over 10 years and had different, you know, elements in Iraq, here and there during different things. So yeah, we've definitely had a presence in the Middle East. As far as I'm aware, there's nothing there anymore, at least in Afghanistan and Iraq, maybe, maybe some people who call it elements, I don't know. But there's, you know, we've got a few other people in different parts of the Middle East. But yeah, we've definitely withdrawn our footprint from that region, but we did have a footprint there and we did do some good things there. But now,

you know, with all the, all the events happening in the Pacific, that's where we're definitely realigning. So which leads me to the next point. Australia, New Zealand, the US, Japan, South Korea, they all sent individuals and members of the military over to fight in Iraq and Afghanistan. China hasn't fought a conventional war in 75 years. So they could have the biggest military in the region, but tactically, they're very reliant on that former Soviet doctrine, which we are seeing in Ukraine is not doing too well. So when it comes to a peer to peer fights or a conventional conflict in the Pacific, that would, it's going to get very messy, very fast simply because there's these untrained conscripts getting thrown into the meat grinder and they will essentially be that

communist human wave until just pushing against the defense of Taiwan or Vietnam, if you will, or any country that kind of comes into conflict with China. I think the closest they've come in the last 20 years is throwing rocks at Indians on the border. That's as close as they've come to any kind of kinetic activity. Yeah, I love those videos. It's hilarious. They were like one Indian soldier was injured and I was like, no, he, what? He got hurt by a rock. That's yeah, it's like a mess of role. It's funny. Oh yeah, it's such a gentleman's agreement to say, okay, I'm going to put my weapon down and we're going to settle this like settle what you're in, you're in this little valley that nobody wants. But anyways, it's yeah. Yeah. So speaking conventionally,

the Chinese don't have any doctrine to kind of play on. They could have war games all they want. But we know if it's a former Soviet or just, you know, communist or Chinese, any kind of thought is applied to the authoritarian type of military, whatever failures they learned, they're going to cover it up until their officers. Yeah, we're good. So if the entirety of essentially the Pacific went out and got dirty and learned some mistakes and went, yeah, we're going to learn from this, and they implemented that in their day to day doctrine, it's, you said second to none, if there's going to be a small contingent of New Zealanders or Australians or Americans fighting against the Chinese, quality of a quantity usually succeeds. So yeah, for sure. And it's

because I think, you know, the quality of, you know, Western militaries and the people, it's certainly a forceful multiplier, right? Compared to, you know, the conscript soldiers that China and Russia probably fields. But I'm saying that though, like, we can't forget that China's, you know, they're almost certainly watching Ukraine, Russia very carefully adjusting their doctrine, their TDPs and what they do. But, you know, you're right, they haven't fought a conventional war in a long, long time. And they certainly haven't fought a modern war. So if they were to invade Taiwan, I think it'd be really interesting. It'd be really interesting how they, how they go about this. They keep building the, those amphibious landing craft and

they have three aircraft carriers now I saw and it's, it's building the military, but it all comes down to an application. It's, if they don't know how to land a ship, I mean, you could have all the Marine Brigades you want, but if they don't know how to actually have a rally point and then move to Caesar objectives, it's not really going to pay off. And I mean, even the Russians had Afghanistan in the 80s and then Chechnya one and two and then Georgia and now this, it's, I mean, they were at least building towards what they have going on now, but looking at China, big picture, I think that's, they might know this and be cognizant of what's going on, which is why they're really reliant on soft power and the

Belt and Road Initiative and just economically going, Oh, I don't need to win today because if America runs in four years and essentially the world follows what America is doing, I just got to wait till the next guy shows up and they're probably going to be a little more lenient on me. So yes, yes. Another thing I've seen and you might have seen this is and this is in Australia that the Chinese foreign exchange student program in colleges within Australia ramped up a lot in the second half of the 20, 2000s and the early 2010s around the time that Xi Jinping became president, which is very center guys over there collect every single thing you can. So yes, yes, I think a lot about moving in one direction.

Yeah, I think, yeah, there's a lot of reports. I remember when that all came out and there's a lot of reports online with CCP quote unquote spies and New Zealand academic institutions. So yeah, I think that's a pretty well-known report and I don't know a assessment as well that that is taking place and I think it's pretty credible because I know the CCP has has a really extensive reach for like into like Chinese diaspora around the world. And I'll be careful what I say here, but I don't know there's certain organizations, certain people within the Chinese community that almost certainly have those links back to the CCP, whether that's, you know, indirect collection and feeding that

information back or directed intelligence operations. So I believe it's happening and this is all based off the reports that I'm reading online. And I don't know, I don't know how much they're gaining from the New Zealand institutions, but certainly the bigger countries Australia, even I don't know if it's happening in the US, but, you know, you have a lot of research and development I assume going on in your universities and, you know, when they're looking at that stuff, emerging technology, you know, that's a perfect place to take that information back to the homeland reverse engineer build on it. Well, the big thing that I look at it as is you send say you're in China and you say,

I really want the world to ease up on, I'm an authoritarian dictatorship and Chairman Mao's not that good. So I'm going to flood their markets and their college campuses where it's a melting pot of ideas and cultures and whatnot and say just promote the idea that China is pretty good. So if you start doing that in many locations with the same script for every single individual in Japan, Australia, New Zealand, America, Canada, Mexico, it's really going to sway the voters opinion in this because America in the West is all, you know, democratic and relies on votes. It's all going to sway the voters opinion on Oh, the Chinese aren't that bad, but completely take out a context of say, G five being implanted for cell service, or the geopolitical ramifications

of being too reliant on the Chinese, because they could just at any point go Oh, well, I bought all your debt. So give me, you know, the South Southern Island, it's it could do that. And yeah, it's more of a soft power move in promoting their own like something like TikTok, which is a Chinese based tool. And it's it's they figured out the Western mind and how to essentially manipulate it. And all they have to do is go Oh, you don't like you do want to use TikTok. Well, it comes from China. So we're not that bad. I mean, we have our own Instagram. It's this. So yeah, regardless of gray man briefs or any report that comes out saying get rid of TikTok. It's not good. But yeah, TikTok's the funny one. Like, personally, I love a good TikTok video, because I think you

some hilarious videos out there. But at the same time, I don't have a count, you know, I don't I don't post on anything like that. And, you know, it's these reports of those links back to back to the China and it being a massive data hoovering platform. And you're right, like they can easily manipulate the West, at least the youth of the West through the algorithm. So it's massively powerful. But, you know, it's not going to go away. TikTok's not going away. People aren't going to stop using TikTok. It's just just the way it is. Yeah, it's it's already embedded within society. It's already in the zeitgeist. It's not going anywhere. It's like Vine. Everyone went Wow, I really want another vine. So yeah, so I got I got more of a touchy question for you. And it's kind of one that's

been lingering for a few years. So we have Firelight, which is essentially all the Anglo-Saxon English speaking nations are on one intelligence platform. They all work together. They share information. There's a running joke within the military, the US military, at least within the last few years, saying that it's essentially for I in Australia or New Zealand's just the the honorable mention. So what's your stance on that? Yeah, I've heard that thrown around and being from New Zealand. I, you know, I can I can agree with where it comes from, because we're not when we're certainly not the biggest player on the world stage. And and we've only got so many people and so much resource to contribute,

essentially. But we are the country along with Australia, but I think more so New Zealand that has a better understanding and a better awareness of the Pacific, especially the Southwest Pacific and the Pacific Island nations. And that's not just because of where we're located, but it's also the cultural ties that we share with those countries. So so New Zealand has, you know, our indigenous people, the Māori people, they share a lot of cultural ties with the Pacific Island nations, right? So through that alone, we've already got those really, really strong bonds, and that's why there's those natural partnerships between us and those nations. And we're in those kind of countries align more with us before they would align with a country like China.

And so in that respect, yeah, so in that respect, we we offer a lot of value, right? But I guess when it's when it's we're talking about projecting further afield and further around the world, that's kind of where we run into that issue, because we don't. I mean, yeah, as I said, we're a small country, man, and we can only do so much with the capability that we have. But when we do go when we do support our partners around the world, as I've said previously, you know, we we punch above our weight or at least we try to and we certainly do add value, you know, and I can attest to that through the people that I've worked with and the feedback that I've got from our five five five my partners towards some of the analysts that I've that I've worked with as

well. So yeah, I understand where that it seems to come from. And it's a bit of a laugh. And I think I think it's just an all in good juice, to be honest. Yeah, it's been when I was in, I work with, you know, New Zealanders and Brits and Canadians and essentially everyone in the five guy bubble. And it was just a running joke. And I was like, I've never actually met a an analyst in the New Zealand military. So I have to ask him because I feel like they're more dialed in outside of say, a grunt, or I think you guys call them diggers. Or is that just Australia? Yeah, that's more Aussie sweet. We sort of do. But yeah, it's more grunts, I think. Yeah. All right. All right. Yeah, that was just a question thrown around. And I figured it was a good time

but moving on big picture. Next 20 years, next 25 years, because China has the 2049 project, and they have to take Taiwan by 2049, because that's the 100 year anniversary of the communist Chinese goal, like that's 100% what they need. But you can't pass fine entire country in 20 minutes, it's going to take years. And so do you see? So there's like option a, where the Chinese just completely invade, and they annex the island, and they go to a complete war with the Pacific nations, and it just spirals in there or be, do they put so much pressure on the state of Taiwan, that the Taiwanese people just go, it makes more sense to join them. So let's just, I don't care what happened in Hong Kong or Macau, I understand what it might be different. Do you

think that the people of Taiwan will accept it? Or do you think because of the current administration, they're just going to double down and go, no, I think we're going to fight to the end? Yeah. Now, I think you've probably almost combined both of those colors or those courses of action, right? So the second one, you know, having the situation with the people, you could almost have that as a precursor to full blown invasion, you know, just wear the populace down until you get, you know, some sort of popular support within, within Taiwan, because they're so, you know, they're worn down there, they're just over it. And then you come in, you're like, okay, you know, we're going to liberate you, whatever, you know, same kind of thing is what's happening

in Ukraine. So yeah, I mean, I think that could be a possibility, but it's so complex, man. Like, I read so many articles on, you know, what, what war with Taiwan would look like, you know, what's going to happen. And there's so many different opinions out there. There's so many, so much different analysis out there. It's just hard to pick one course of action. So even in, so I don't know if you would have seen the video of the UK Chief of Army talking about we're a 1937 kind of scenario at the moment, you know, which the indicator there is, is that's implying that in two years, we're going to be at the start of World War Three. And so even then, like, you know, you've got some people saying that, or assessing, okay,

we're going to be at war in maybe two years or maybe five years. It's such a hard one to a CSA. I can't really put a put a number on it, to be honest. But I think going back to your previous question, I definitely see like combining those two colors as feasible. Okay, that makes, I mean, I could see that. But yeah, after several generations of because our initial battle cry was retake the mainland, and by the 70s, the UN went, you're never getting it back. So we're just going to handle the seat of the state of China to the CCP, not the next state of Nationalist China, and or the Republic of Taiwan, as it's called now, and be like, All right, this is it. And so that idea of being outnumbered, where you might have seen it

when Ukraine got invaded, or actually goes back to when the West was leaving Afghanistan, the Chinese flew over Taiwan, and we're handing out leaflets saying, hey, look how the West treats their allies, you're next. So it's if you just get that seed planted in the back of every youth's mind going, no, I don't want to fucking die for a lost cause, we're going to lose. So why wouldn't we accept it? Yeah. And it's what that leads me to another point where a war in the Pacific would not be initially tanks and planes and grunts running across open fields like it is in Ukraine, it's going to be a lot of ship movement. So do you see the age of the aircraft carrier being over? Because of all these ballistic missiles that are coming out, they call them carrier killers,

they could just smoke an entire enterprise class aircraft carrier from the 80s. I mean, the Chinese seem to be stopping their production of aircraft carriers, because I think they see ahead of the curve going, I don't really see what's going on. It's more of a symbol at this point of a cultural Chinese owned this region. And that's why the British sent their Queen Elizabeth over to Singapore. It's hey, we're here, which was honestly just out of left field move for them. But yeah, yeah, yeah. Yeah, so I mean, I don't have a naval background, but I do see there's still a role to play for carriers, you know, in the future war in the Pacific. And there will certainly be a multi domain kind of conflict. However, when you talk about boots

on the ground, you know, when you're fighting in the islands, you'll see a lot of jungle warfare and that kind of stuff. But yeah, it will certainly be missiles, ships, destroyers. And I do think that they store a place for carriers as well. Maybe not to the extent as what we've seen in the past, especially, you know, in recent years. But yeah, I think I do think there'll still be a role for carriers, you know, especially if you've got to project air power and things like that. Because if you're going to even if you you fall you forward stage into the Pacific, if you've somehow got hold of a country's airfield like in country like Samoa or Tonga, but you know, they're infrastructure, the organic infrastructure there is still quite limited. So I think it's

still more feasible to you utilize a carrier. But again, that comes with the zone, you know, risks and vulnerabilities, especially when you're talking about missiles and things like that. But me personally, I still think there's a role there. And that's, but this is certainly a land based point of view. Because I don't I don't I don't have the expertise to talk about naval warfare or missiles and things like that. Yeah, and I yeah, I agree with, yeah, I agree with what you say. It's like everyone's saying the age of the tank is over because if you got blown up in Ukraine, like, no, that's still an intimidating thought of the tank rolling down the road in Europe, a grunt with an m4, you're like, no, I'm not stopping that. It's the air carrier is big in

the US Navy is what larger than the next 10 combined based on tonnage. So it's ships are fierce just to begin with. And if you have three carriers in the Pacific and they can each carry 80 aircraft or 80 fixed wing aircraft, that's, that's 80 different items you have to watch out for, say if it's a C to C based battle or just essentially taking control of any airspace because you need to have control the airspace before you move in with your ground forces in any kind of conventional conflict. So that's yeah, that's interesting. That's yeah, I definitely don't think it's over, but I think there might take a backseat here soon, based on just the rapid industrialization, not industrialization, but the modernization of technology and especially

coming out of China, because they just they steal everything is a good way to put it. And it's yeah, we have a saying in the US is a great value brand like f 18s and what not. So it's yeah, I would say definitely a it's the US. You know, are they still building carriers and and things like that? Like what's the approach that the US is taking now? So they're still building carriers and they take I don't quote me, but maybe six years to make. So it's no longer that one year rotation that was in World War Two, where you just throw a bunch of steel together and put a flat deck on it and kick it out. It takes several years because the nuclear power. And so you have a lot going on, but the US also has several smaller ships

like cruisers, frigates, these kind of things floating around. And so I was not on the I was not on a Navy ship when I was in Asia, but there was the Marine Corps that their whole thing is they're the first line of defense when it comes to the Pacific. So that's that's their backyard colts really based on heritage going back to World War Two and whatnot. They're like, we fight on islands, we're amphibious, that whole thing. So they're really pivoting back to that. So they ditch tanks, they ditched priority. They've really gone back to a a very light infantry based organization where you could have rapid mobilization across any kind of domain. So based on if they're coming on via MV 22 offsprays, or if they're coming on via

landing craft, they can deploy really wrap really quickly and then get up and move. So the US military or just I can't speak on the army, but I know that the Marine Corps have come up with something called EABO, where essentially their goal is to take islands and hinder freedom of navigation in the ocean. So they just sit down, sit down, they implant their anti-air and they ship missiles and they're like, all right, well, come get it. And so at that point, when I was reading all these when I was still in, I was going, didn't the Japanese try this and we just went around? Yeah. So that was the first idea, but looking more into it, it makes more sense to just block. And so you could bottleneck entire, say fleets into one area and then engage them with

your aircraft, drones, these kinds of things and just essentially smoke as many warships as you can while the Marine Corps seizes objectives across the Pacific. And so that's on each island chain. And without going way into the weeds and some not chill things, it's essentially the Marine Corps' whole job is to soak up as many bullets as you can until the army and the rest in the first Marine Division show up. So this any Marine that's out in like Guam forward is like you're counting your days. And so outside of that, you have someone like the army who is in Korea and their big adversary is North Korea, who are fairly certain that in any case of any Chinese friction, they are going to head south very fast. So yeah, it's almost expected. And so that kind of leads

me into a thought that's been bouncing around for a while. Would the Chinese just assume control of North Korea, just get rid of Kim or would they let them kind of be this wild card to keep the U.S. entertained while the Chinese are pushing, was this West? Yeah, while they're pushing East. What do you think? I don't think the CCP would assume control of North Korean government. Again, I don't typically focus on North Korea, but I can't really see that happening just by nature of the North Korean government and that whole institution, how it's essentially like a, it's almost like a cult really, you know, they've got their whole country under the thumb, believing in this whole different way of life in this year.

So I can't see the Chinese taking that over. However, they will likely be a proxy almost, if you know what I mean. Yeah, I don't see China taking over, but just by nature of what North Korea is and what the big government is, like, I just can't see that happening. Yeah, it would definitely be a domino effect once China moves at all towards Taiwan. It would rapidly become a, like I said, domino effect. And I'm fairly certain that there's a lot of young Japanese individuals who are really eager for round three. So I work with the Japanese quite often and they were very professional and very mean. So I can't imagine them just going against the Chinese again. So yeah, I think, um, yeah, the only exposure I had to Japanese was,

I deployed on a RIMPAC, um, it was back in 2014, I think. So I worked with Japanese, you know, really, really cool people and really traditional. Yeah, a lot of other countries, you know, working with the Marines. That was awesome too. And going off topic now, but even just being on RIMPAC, you know, that was kind of like the first time other than when I was in Afghanistan where I really had an appreciation of, you know, conventional power that the states and other countries have and the presence that is in the Pacific, even just being at Pearl Harbor with all these different, I think, I don't think China was there, but yeah, just having all these different countries there, it was massive. It was a really cool experience, but

I've fully gone off topic now. Speaking of RIMPAC, so China was never, I'm sure you know, but for the listeners, China was never invited to RIMPAC because nobody could trust them, they were going to spy and be Chinese. And then we invited them one year and I want to say it was in like 2012, 13 or 14, one of those. And immediately they just got caught spying and they're like, well, not your band again. It's, and so, but for anyone listening, RIMPAC is essentially a big military joint exercise between all the nations within the Pacific Rim to train together and really build that geopolitical alliances and make everyone be friendly with each other and go like, hey, shake hands, kiss babies, one of those things. But yeah, everyone knows subconsciously that the

whole plan and the whole goal of RIMPAC is just in case the Chinese get frisky. So yeah. Yeah. So, so yeah, China was there in 2014, which is when I was on the exercise. I remember, I remember seeing their flag. But yeah, as you said, you know, then they get caught spying. And even since then, you know, even since then, when there's major exercises, and you can read about this online, you know, there's always reports of a Chinese citizenship, you know, just following off the horizon, just hovering data essentially. Yeah, they're like, I know what you're doing. Yeah. Oh, a Chinese ship just happens to show up off the coast of Okinawa. I wonder what you're looking for. It's not fish. So yeah, yeah, I think the last one I read was an Australian exercise,

Talisman Sabre, which is again, China were off the coast doing what they did. And that's what I got asked the question as well, like, what's going to happen on this RIMPAC? I just made the same assessment, right? I'd be like, well, I wouldn't be surprised if China showed up with one of their ships just off the coast and just tracking along behind and just monitoring and doing what they do. Oh, yeah, there's, yeah, China is trying to learn as much as they can. So they're just sitting down with the textbook going, okay, learning from everyone from the US pullout of Afghanistan, 20 years of war on terror, the Russians, they're reading, rereading, of course,

their old organic doctrine, but they say they're rapid, rapidly modernizing their military, but they're taking notes from everyone. So in a conventional conflict, it's going to be, you might have an 80% solution of what they might do, but then that 15% is, well, I'm not really sure because Chinese don't say anything. So, and I think I mentioned it last week with Great Dynamics, but a nation like China, they have the second largest military budget on the planet and the largest military in the world, but their stated numbers are likely incredibly fudged and fake. So, yeah, yeah, even their military spending, like what they officially put out there is probably, you know, probably drastically lower than what they actually spend

on the military. But yeah, so you never know what the real, what the real numbers are or what they're really up to, aside from what they put out officially or what you can get off social media. But yeah, hey, one thing I wanted to talk, one thing I wanted to mention now that we're on the back, back end of this conversation, I think it was one of the things you brought up in your last one, or no, the one with B from Wines Journal, and you're talking about being an analyst, an analyst in the military, where you kind of, you show up to a posting or a unit, and you're just expected to be the instant SME on a particular problem. I was like, I listened to that, I was like, that is so true. And then you just spend your time just reading and just like getting fed

through the fire hose of all this information and just trying to almost fake it till you make it a, well, that's my experience at least. And then you eventually get there. But yeah, you know, once you're, once you're, yeah, once you're dialed into like an 80% solution or 75% solution, you move and you go to a different AO and you've go to a completely different command and they're like, oh, you looked at China? I don't care about that. We're really involved in what's going on in the Horn of Africa. You're like, that means nothing to me. They're like, well, it better because you have a brief in two weeks. And you're like, thank you. So yeah. Yeah. And like, and we're on work now, you know, we're on that side of the military, but I'm still, you know, working within government.

And you've got these, these analysts that have been looking at the same thing for, for years, right? And to me, that's like, that's a true SME. And then there's just like, yeah, and in the cyclopedia, in terms of the, of the particular problem set, but you know, when you go to that military, it's totally different. So I think my last, this woman, you know, I showed up in theater and we're looking at this particular problem set. I had my little week handover, and then I was into it. And I was going into these meetings and these working groups, just expected to add value from the get go. And oh my gosh, just like, just like that, that feeling like you kind of know, but you still got so much to learn. It's so typical way, so

typical of the military. Or the worst is you show up in your first few weeks and you give a little cub or a dub or anything to the commander and sit down and do the wave tops. And he goes, I already know this. And you're like, Oh, anyway, yeah. So in the, the Marine Corps, I don't know about the army or any of the other branches, but our first basic all source game is called an intel specialist. And then the joke is like, what do we specialize in? Because our posts are only two years. So yeah, yeah, that was the same two to three years. And then you're off to something else. But if you don't realize, you're like, well, then it's all a waste. So yeah. Yeah, that's so true. But I think even when you're like, when you're briefing commanders and

things like that, I think that that issue when you, when you'd read the command and they're like, Oh, I already know this, or you kind of just assuming that they already know everything, I think that's, that's just anemic with first, you know, with initial postings in the first few months. But I think once you start building those relationships with command, you start knowing and talking to them and understanding their, their questions and what they need to know, it gets a lot better. And I think that's, that's a real cool thing. Hey, when you've got those kind of relationships with the command. Yeah. Oh, yeah, of course, you started to build that personal relationship. And if you're the

chief or the specific individual that focuses on this area, say you're the, you're the AFV guy, and you're like, cool, I know everything about the AFV. And so people will start coming to you and you build that relationship. Or if you give your, your pre-mission brief to your guys, and then the back end, you do your, because you were in the army, I'm sure you had those, those readouts after like a patrol or a brief, and you're like, okay, what'd you guys see? And you sit down there and, you know, like, they might want dip, you know, they might want a cigarette. So then that's how you build friends. But that's just people skills at that point. So yeah, what's most interesting, and this is just from my experiences working with the other

branches, because you're so pigeonholed into your experiences, like, oh, well, the Marine Corps acts like this. And then you go to work with the Navy, and you tell them about what's going on in Syria, and they go, well, that's a pickle. And you're like, what, that wasn't, what? Yeah. That's not even an answer. Yeah. What kind of training do you guys go through as part of the Marine Corps and intelligence? So the first three months of boot camp, of course, and then you have a month of combat training, which is every Marine rifleman or whatever. And then there's a three month intelligence course where they just go over IPV and collections and coins, just the wave tops of what, you know,

I'm sure you have it, you have the pub, and it's just the intelligence. And so you just read atop the back and there you go. And then sometimes they have more specialized schools where they're, you can be an instructor trainer. But once you leave the schoolhouse, it's pretty much up to you about how good you want to be. Yeah. And the Marine Corps is very small. It's the smallest branch. It's very underfunded. And every single year goes, the motto is do more with less, because we don't have anything. So all of ourselves says it's stamped U.S. Army. And, you know, we're the last to get everything. But which is changing because the Marine Corps was like, all right, well, you know, tanks cost a lot of money, get rid of them. We don't need them.

Plains are already, we don't need them. So they're cutting money and not putting it into better equipment and whatnot. They're like, let's actually get our intel analysts to intelligent schools, go work with the Air Force, go learn what's going on over there. So yeah. But in terms for us, it's pretty much just, do you want to be good at your job? Do you want to be credible? Or do you want to get out and just go? Yeah, it was a job. What about you? Yeah, we're kind of the same. So, you know, you go through the basic training and all that kind of stuff and you do your initial three months intelligence training, which again, it's essentially three months of IPB, focusing on conventional and contemporary operations. And then, yeah, from there, you've got continuation

training as you progress through your career. But as you said, it's up to you if you want to be good or be as good as you can be, or you can just go through your career and, you know, not really add any value, but still progress as it seems to be in the military sometimes. I mean, you know, you can, yeah, you can specialize in different disciplines, which is cool and go into different schools and maybe do a few subcommands with the government and do all kind of cool things. But yeah, I think we're very similar. It probably is because I've met Brit analysts and, you know, Canadian and I think it's pretty streamlined across the board. It's just like, hey, here it is, because, you know, just sitting there working with all of them. We all wear the same uniform,

essentially. It's, yeah, it's all, it's all Mar-Pet, not Mar-Pet. It's outside of the Marine Corps. It's all just multi-gam. And it's like, yeah, the Brits have their L86 and the Australians have the Cyrog, but it's like, yeah, essentially, it's across the board. I think it goes back to Five-Eye, where the idea is be very hand-over-hand redundant, where you could take a Kiwi and drop them in a Marine jock and go, yeah, just figure it out. And they're like, yeah, cool. I just, you know, read me on and we'll go from there. But I think it has something to do with Five-Eye. So yeah, it's all pretty much aligned. The reason why I ask is, do I think just having these kind of conversations between, you know, between people who have similar experiences is really important,

especially for things on like podcasts and with audiences that you have and that I have, because a lot of the time, and this is something that I've noticed is when you listen to, you know, military-centric podcasts and all that kind of stuff, a lot of it's around, you know, special operations and just really high-speed individuals or people who have done these amazing things. But there's not a lot of conversation between, you know, just the everyday kind of soldier or analyst or whatever, just having the conversation and where a listener can also relate to those experiences and get value that way, rather than listening to these people, you know, these really, really good people that are doing things that, you know, a lot of people probably

won't and won't probably ever do. So yeah, that's kind of why I ask is just kind of get the message out there and that kind of conversation. Yeah, I guess bring some lore out. Yeah, that's fun. Speaking about the SF guys, like, yeah, they're really sexy, but that's one percent of the military. That's not a lot of guys. So, and yeah, of course, they do, they do the really cool things and they do their raids and I mean, Marines have Mara Sock and the Army have SF Rangers and then and Delta and everyone has their own little branch. And so that has that, you know, that history that goes behind it. But they were like, no one really goes, man, I would really like to see what a Marine from one seven has to say. So yeah, yeah, man. That's what's going on.

That's like, that's that's kind of like personally what what I'd like to hear sometimes in a podcast. And that's why when I go back talking about doing my own one, I think that's kind of what I'm going to align towards. I'm just kind of having those those those conversations with those kind of people because I think everyone's got a story to tell, right? Everyone's got some really good experiences and really good knowledge to pass on. But it's not always drawn out because, you know, we're always listening to these other, you know, the one percenters, which is nothing wrong with that at all. But I think there's always there's a space for everyone to kind of share their story as well. I think it has something to do with nobody, well, not nobody, but I don't think a lot

of, you know, Army Grunts from the 82nd, 2nd Brigade, 82nd Airborne Division hat want to talk about their drinking in their barracks room and watching TV. They're like, oh, I do want to hear about the time I went to the woods for a week. You ever have the opportunity to go to 29 Palms, California? No, no, I never did. That's where I met a lot of Brits and Australians and Canadians is where the Joint Training Center and a lot of five I NATO countries train there because it's a big sandbox and you can do whatever you want. But it's a great way that this is so there's this little bar called the Warriors Club and everyone just goes there and it's on Camp Wilson. So there's 29 Palms in the back. There's the training area. There's an airfield and there's a little

hooch called Camp Wilson. But anyways, there's a lawyer club and everyone shows up and it was really funny to see that, you know, in the US, you can't drink until you're 21. And so all the younger guys would just go back and watch TV, but the Brits could drink whatever they wanted and they didn't have a drink limit. So they would get absolutely hammered every single night. They would only drink rippets and monsters go out, outperform every single Marine combat, drive the bar again. And the Australians are like, what the fuck is wrong with these guys? You're like, we're over here trying to like pace ourselves. And it was just funny to sit down and like, tell me anything, just let's talk about anything. Let's really get to know each other

because we're supposed to be friends. So yeah, it was always really or a yeah, it was just fun seeing those guys. And so when that funny report came out, you probably read it last year where US Royal Marine Commandos destroyed US Marine Corps infantry. And I was like, I can see that. It's got a pretty bad ass. So yeah, it's always fun working with the Brits. They know how to have a good time. But yeah, I'm not sorry about it. I don't mean to get all philosophical on you. Oh, no, it's fine. I think we got about like 15 minutes left. It's yeah. All good. So I thought I thought that was a really good talking point that you raised on your previous podcast around life as an analyst in the military and the struggles that we face.

Yeah, I'm pretty sure that it's the same in your military where it's like if the mission goes well. Thank you. Or there's no thank you. But if it goes back, they're like, hey, and tell what the fuck. So yeah, yeah, yeah, it's it's like a it's a it's a thankless job. Yeah. Yeah, mate. Yeah, sorry about that. There's dog. No, it's all good. Anyway, is any other lingering questions? No, no, I just I just thought I'd bring it up. I think also, I might as well talk about it. Well, I've got the mic is just, I think you wanted to talk about, you know, New Zealand's plan moving forward in the Pacific. And I think it's probably a good thing to talk about, especially as a lot of listeners from the States. And I don't know if

you get many New Zealand listeners, but even I think New Zealanders should probably know this as well. But actually, I took a look and they're the sixth most listened to country. So Oh, nice. Good. The Germans for some reason. So but yeah, so in 2021, the Ministry of Defense in New Zealand released their defense assessment. And out of that, you know, it dropped out kind of, I think four, no, five key conclusions. And one of them was, you know, there are two, two kind of challenges that New Zealand faces, right? And this is where we're kind of aligning our defense, a strategic competition in the Pacific and impacts of climate change. And both are going hand in hand, especially in the Pacific.

And another thing that defense assessment notices is that there's no indication of these kind of trends slowing down or decreasing. Essentially, it's only, it's only ramping up. It's only going to ramp up over the next several years. And if that's just left to happen and and let it run its course, it poses a threat to New Zealand's sovereignty and, and, you know, the rules based on especially in the Pacific and that kind of thing. So it certainly harms our interests and we have a lot of interest in the Pacific. And so this kind of feeds into New Zealand's defense policy, where it shifts from risk management to more deliberate forward thinking kind of projection, at least into the Pacific. So I talked about previously, you know, our

involvement in the Middle East, and we've kind of moved away from that. And now we're realigning to the Pacific, and that's where we're going to start projecting again, and working with those nations. And the fourth, the fourth one being, I think we're talked about as New Zealanders, you know, a small nation, we don't have a lot to provide, but we need to concentrate what we do have and prioritise our efforts. So that feeds into the Pacific region of our first going around our sovereignty and the economic exclusion zone, and then moving ahead into the Pacific. So it's kind of focusing our efforts in those two spaces. And the Pacific is where, again, we want to have the biggest impact.

And the fifth one, and that's when we look to project further, that's back looking back into the Middle East into Europe, you know, having our government sends intelligence, logistics support into places like Europe to support Ukraine and having some of our artillerymen train Ukrainian artillery on the L119. So that's kind of like the fifth priority. But the fourth, the first four, the first four priorities that essentially dictates our realignment into back into the Pacific. And that's kind of where New Zealand is focused. And any capability or any, you know, any capability that we do have, any capability that we bring online into the future, there will certainly be aligned to what we can provide and

project into that region. New Zealand Defense Force is procuring, I think the P8, is that the Poseidon P8? I think so, yeah. Yeah, yeah, I think we've got four of them. And that's going to enable us to conduct those kind of missions in the places like South China Sea and East China Sea. So we can provide more value there. But also that will provide heaps in terms of the Pacific as well. So I guess long story short, from a policy perspective, it's all realigning to the Pacific, man. Like we're going to be big, big, big plays into, into the Southwest Pacific. And you'll certainly see, well, hopefully see us working more with, you know, Australia, hopefully the Marine Corps. Yeah. So that's kind of where we're focusing. Do you think there's any indication

of New Zealand military growing, or do you think they're just going to round out and just become a more professional force? Yeah, so I think one of the strategies, at least when I left, it was to grow the army to, we've got to release more army. So 5,500 people of regular soldiers. Again, that's really small, but for a country like New Zealand, with our defense budget and the political appetite towards the military, I think that's quite significant. So that's kind of where we're growing in that respect. And then we're still bringing online different bits and pieces of capability. So I do think that New Zealand will grow, even if it's, if it's quite small, but Australia's certainly procuring a lot of new capability. You know, you see things like the

submarine deal that they had, now they're realigning under, I can forget what their partnership is with the Brits in the US. Yeah, yeah, yeah. So yeah, we're definitely expanding men, but Australia's certainly leading the task there, which is cool to see. That is really interesting. It's just cool to see that there's no stagnation. There's no like, well, guess we got to take it. It's, it's cool to see that everyone's actually like being proactive of what's going on and not being behind the curve or like minus one as we put it. But last thing, man, real quick, ANZAC, is that still like a term thrown around? Or is that just more of like a ANZAC day heritage? We just, it's one day we just kind of let it run. No, man, that's still a term

that, that's still thrown around heaps. And whenever we were doing anything joint with the Aussies, you know, we kind of, we call that an ANZAC contingent, or even if that's not officially termed ANZAC, it's still what the soldiers and sailors, they kind of like to fall under the ANZAC banner. And I think, you know, when Australia and New Zealand were deployed to Iraq, training, you know, Iraqi soldiers to go off and fight ISIS, I'm pretty sure there was ANZAC somewhere in the title there, because they were doing a joint, a joint kind of thing. So, so yeah, it's certainly, it's certainly a banner that we still, we're still proud of and we still use. It's not exclusive to ANZAC day, which is equivalent to your guys veteran's day, I suppose.

Yeah. Yeah, man, still a lot of, a lot of history behind that, a lot of, a lot of national pride from both countries. Yeah, I definitely had to ask, because I'm definitely a fan of the term and the history and everything that goes into it, but I didn't know if it was still like a rich current culture, because I know like, anyone could throw away like, oh, the American Expeditionary Force World War One, that doesn't mean anything to us anymore. But it's, it's just a really cool term. Have you ever heard of the whiskey ANZAC? It's pretty good. Whiskey ANZAC. It's a joint whiskey, and it's just an ANZAC, but it's, it's pretty good. I highly recommend it. No, I haven't. Yeah, I love the whiskey, eh?

But okay, all right. Well, Alcon, I really appreciate you coming on right about that time. For the listeners, go on Instagram and follow me at Alcon S2 and Twitter at Alcon Intel, right? Yep, that's the one. All right. Well, hey, man, I really appreciate it. Awesome, man. Thanks for having me. Yeah, yeah, it's been great. This is my first podcast, so hopefully I didn't, I didn't cook it too much, but it's been fun, man. It's been a good chat. It's been a real good time. No, you didn't, you didn't botch it at all. But all right, all right, everyone, until next time.