Legal AF by MeidasTouch - Trump PANICKED as Harris SURGES Past KEY THRESHOLD

Episode Date: September 18, 2024

Post-debate VP Harris just crossed the mythical +5 point national lead polling result with room to spare. Michael Popok explains why the national polling average is so important to the battleground state and electoral chances, and why the tightening race in Florida to within the margin of error spells doom for Trump’s campaign. Thanks to HIMS! Start your free online visit today at https://hims.com/legalaf for your personalized ED treatment options. Visit https://meidastouch.com for more! Join the Legal AF Patreon: https://Patreon.com/LegalAF Remember to subscribe to ALL the MeidasTouch Network Podcasts: MeidasTouch: https://www.meidastouch.com/tag/meidastouch-podcast Legal AF: https://www.meidastouch.com/tag/legal-af MissTrial: https://meidasnews.com/tag/miss-trial The PoliticsGirl Podcast: https://www.meidastouch.com/tag/the-politicsgirl-podcast The Influence Continuum: https://www.meidastouch.com/tag/the-influence-continuum-with-dr-steven-hassan Mea Culpa with Michael Cohen: https://www.meidastouch.com/tag/mea-culpa-with-michael-cohen The Weekend Show: https://www.meidastouch.com/tag/the-weekend-show Burn the Boats: https://www.meidastouch.com/tag/burn-the-boats Majority 54: https://www.meidastouch.com/tag/majority-54 Political Beatdown: https://www.meidastouch.com/tag/political-beatdown Lights On with Jessica Denson: https://www.meidastouch.com/tag/lights-on-with-jessica-denson On Democracy with FP Wellman: https://www.meidastouch.com/tag/on-democracy-with-fpwellman Uncovered: https://www.meidastouch.com/tag/maga-uncovered Coalition of the Sane: https://meidasnews.com/tag/coalition-of-the-sane Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

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where we offer career programs purpose-built for you. Visit continue.yorku.ca. This is Michael Popak, Legal AF. We've got two major developments in polling just today on National Voter Registration Day, all in favor of Kamala Harris and against Donald Trump. And these results matter. These are post-debate, now plus one week out from the debate. And now Kamala Harris is showing a national plus six, six point lead over Donald Trump in national polling, 51 to 45.

She has crossed that mythical threshold of five points or more, which will mean that she's also leading in all the battleground states as a result. What is driving the new numbers coming out of morning consult poll? She's doing exceedingly well and they're dragging the wagon of Biden 2020 voters. And we know that Biden won by a lot more votes than Donald Trump. Liberals, women, 18 to 34s and millennials are all driving, along with the black vote, the black American vote in the Hispanic vote.

She's getting all in coalescing and consolidating all of the constituent parts of the democratic party that leads to victory. It's a broad party. As long as you get them off the couch and active and motivated for you with momentum and enthusiasm, which she is doing, along with Tim Walls, you win.

And you have many different paths to winning if you're a Democrat right now. Because many of the states are competitive. It's not just that she's up six points. And some people might be thinking, but PO-POK, we're a electoral college country. We go state by state. I've always been told there's seven battleground states

in play and that's who's gonna decide the election. And it may even come down to 50,000 or 100,000 votes or less out of all the votes cast, out of hundreds of millions of votes cast. That is true. But statistical analysis and election experts and political scientists have always said that if you get above four or five and now six points, it means you're doing well in the battleground states and you're ahead there as well. Let's look at Florida as an example.

Depending upon which bias was part of the corporate media coverage, you might've heard she's down in Florida. Nate Silver says she can't win Florida. She's more likely to win Alaska than Florida I don't know about all that Nate Here's what I know from having lived in Florida for 20 years Watching it go from blue to purple and then red and now move back to purpley blue

Is that in recent polling after the debate? Kamala Harris has closed the gap in a tightening race in Florida, headed by Ron DeSantis and Tim Scott before him to two points, which is within the margin of error, meaning it is a toss-up. And even if she doesn't win Florida, and she does not have to win Florida to win the election, she's got four different combinations of electoral map states to win the presidency and get to 270 electoral votes. He has like one path. He's got to run the table and Florida is part of his running the table.

But the fact that she's now within the margin of error, so late in the game, we're only 40 something days away from the election. This is more like a UK, you know, we're going to do this in 50 days or less and we're going to pick a prime minister, you know, that kind of thing. I used to think that was crazy. I kind of like it. I like the energy that's been generated by the momentum of the time, the velocity of just the calendar combined with her personality, her leadership skills, and she is running a masterful, flawless campaign against,

Donald Trump who's entered his dotage. He's the dottering person who's pushing 80 can barely put a sentence together. No attack on 80 year olds. There's plenty of 80 year olds, including for the president of the United States who can put a sentence together and are doing just fine. We're just not watching this example of it

with Donald Trump. Florida tightening means Donald Trump has to spend money, resources he doesn't have. Remember his war chest is one quarter of what Kamala Harris and the Democrats have. She raises money at three and four times the amount of Donald Trump. So he has less money and he also doesn't have a ground game.

What's his ground game? JD Vance saying crazy shit at various campaign stops that then Donald Trump and the campaign have to walk back and it becomes about JD Vance. What crazy crap JD Vance said today. That should not be, okay, that should not be your campaign strategy to have to, he says stupid, and then you got to clean up after it. You got to clean up behind the elephant as a campaign for the next three days. And then JD Vance goes to the next town. He's like a circus with elephants that craps in that city.

And then there's a crew of campaign workers that have to clean up behind them. That can't be your campaign strategy. So they don't have proxies that are not recognized as being right-wing nuts, like Marjorie Taylor Greene and Matt Gaetz and Laura Loomer and all the alt-right social media posters like DC Drano. The fact that you got a guy named J.D. Drano on your campaign payroll tells you all you need to know about the chances of this campaign succeeding. I know as well as the next guy that sex life is important, but your schedule is busy.

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Whereas Kamala Harris has people that are well respected who are out there campaigning for her. Plus she has tremendous energy. She's a high-motor candidate. She seems to be everywhere at once. She's everything everywhere all the time at once. And if she's not a very energized, you know, social, what do you call it, social studies teacher- teacher in chief in Tim Walz, the football coach, he's everywhere. And if he's not, the Obamas are.

And if Obama's not, it's President Biden or Jill Biden or the Clintons. You know, we're rolling out the royalty of the Democratic party to try to get Kamala Harris elected. You saw it at the convention. What does Donald Trump have in comparison? So he's got no money, he's got no proxies, he goes out and gives rambling speeches

that now the mainstream media doesn't even cover. Most of them doesn't even cover. You wanna find the full hour and a half speech that Donald Trump gave in California three days ago, you gotta find the local news station that posted it up on their YouTube and got like 3,000 votes, because nobody's covering

this. And so he has to spend money in Florida in a state he probably already put in his back pocket. Not happening. And every state like North Carolina and Florida, that's what she's doing. She's pressing her advantage. And the fact that she's got the big M, the big Mo, the big momentum forcing him to spend dollars. That's what this polling does. It legitimizes her win when she stands in front of the Teamsters Union a day or so ago. Talk about the confidence that Kamala Harris has. The Teamsters Union are playing hard to get. Let's be frank.

All the other unions have gotten behind Kamala Harris because there's only one party that can count, that labor can count on, and that's the Democratic Party. And if you don't think that, then you haven't followed 100 years of politics or economics to not understand that. But the Teamsters' head's a weird guy. And so he's holding out for, I don't know what, some position in the cabinet. He already appeared at the Republican National Convention, and he's holding back. Other parts of the Teamsters have all supported Kamala Harris.

There's a lot of black truck drivers and they're supporting Kamala Harris as a separate unit. But she told them, I'm gonna win this, this is almost an exact quote, I'm going to win this election with or without you. And if I win and it's without you, I will treat you the same whether you support me or not. That is the rhetoric and the bravado

of somebody who knows they're in the winner's chair. Right? Could you imagine Kamala Harris saying that even a month ago? Right? She was not there to beg for their endorsement. She's gonna get that endorsement. It may come as early as later in this week, but look at the confidence growing into the position before our very eyes. They always say the

presidency, you watch the person, hopefully grow into the position. The history thrust upon them and them accepting that challenge. Whereas Donald Trump of course shrunk before our very eyes. He's now about a foot tall. I always say to my people when I recruit them, pressure either makes a diamond or dust. Spotlights, the Klieg lights, the hot lights, you either shine or you melt. We're watching a shining diamond in Kamala Harris. And the polling reflects it. This is big news. Six point advantage morning consult poll. Two point advantage only for Donald Trump within the margin of error in Florida and in other states. This is terrific news. We continue to follow it all and what it means at the intersection of law and politics.

One place, we sit at that crossroads, that crucial crossroads. So you don't have to, we do it one place, we do it on Legal AF, there we go. There it is. Find out what 40 million people a month already know, that Legal AF is the home of law and politics commentary and analysis like no other on YouTube.

I defy you to find a program, a group of analysts who are more entertaining, who are more right on almost all the time in their judgment, in their analysis, in their teaching about this area, than Legal AF. On Wednesdays, I do it with Karen Freeman at Knitfollow. On Saturdays, with Ben Mycelis. And then on hot takes like this about every hour, if not every day on the Midas Touch Network. You can pick us up on live recording Wednesdays and Saturdays, 8 p.m. Eastern time,

or on audio recordings wherever you get your podcast from. So until my next hot take, until my next Legal AF, this is Michael Popak reporting. Heary, heary, Legal AF Law Breakdown Michael Popak reporting.