Let's Find Common Ground - 2020 Election Briefing: U.S. Foreign Policy. Peter Ford and Howard LaFranchi

Episode Date: October 8, 2020

President Trump's "America First" policy has led to a U.S. withdrawal from many global institutions. For decades after World War II, American leadership in the world was taken for granted. Today, the future of American hegemony is deeply uncertain.  In this election briefing, we explore the future of foreign policy with two highly experienced journalists, Peter Ford and Howard LaFranchi. Based in Paris, Peter is global affairs correspondent for The Christian Monitor. Prior to his current job, he spent a decade as Beijing Bureau Chief. Howard has been The Monitor's diplomacy correspondent in Washington D.C. since 2001.  We discuss the U.S. pullback from the World Health Organization during the COVID-19 pandemic, America's exit from the Paris climate accord, deteriorating relations with China, and the differences between Joe Biden and Donald Trump on America's role in the world.

The US is the world's largest trading nation and spends more on defense than the next nine countries combined. America's peace and prosperity depend on what happens overseas. But despite its importance, foreign policy is mentioned less than other issues in the presidential campaign. This is Let's Find Common Ground. I'm Ashley Melntite. And I'm Richard Davies. In this election briefing episode, we look at America's role in the world with two highly experienced journalists, Peter Ford and Howard LeFranchi.

Based in Paris, Peter is global affairs correspondent for the Christian science monitor. Previously, he spent a decade as the paper's Beijing Bureau Chief. Howard has been the monitor's diplomacy correspondent based in Washington since 2001. We look at the implications of President Trump's America First Policy and the U.S. retreat from global institutions. We reach Peter at his home in France and the audio quality was a bit wobbly. First question to Peter Ford. How has America's role changed in the past three and a half years? Well, I think it's changing in a very deliberate way as President Trump wanted it to. And rather than being the go to country, or Madeline Orbride used to call the indispensable nation. America has

just become another superpower, and one interested, frankly, only in protecting the interests of its citizens and its own national interests. And that has really pulled the regupt, frankly, from a lot of countries, especially America's traditional allies, who were still finding their way around this new world, and still trying to figure out what they can do without America, and how they might go about doing it without angering America too much. One example of that, Peter, is President Trump's refusal to work with the World Health Organization during the coronavirus pandemic. Has that weakened the global response?

Well, I think it has, I mean, quite apart from the financing, which is what President Trump threatened to pull. But it's more than just a question of money. It's a question of leadership and commitment, and the sense that there is a serious, organized and capable country playing a lead role in gathering the sort of support and action required hard to imagine an international affair, an international matter that is more in need of international cooperation. And this American administration doesn't put a very high price on cooperation. The Trump administration has withdrawn from some major international agreements, including the Paris Climate Accord, the Trans-Pacific Partnership, and the Iran Nuclear Deal.

It's pretty sweeping, isn't it? It is. I mean, I think Mr. Trump made it clear at the beginning that that's what he intends to do and not everybody believed him because it was going so dramatic an outlook, but he has followed through. And I think that whoever wins the election, I think that as a pattern that has been set, I think that momentum has been lost in terms of American leadership of the world, than even if Joe Biden won the election, and even if he wanted to reverse course, it won't just be a question of switching things back on again overnight. The headlines are often dominated by President Trump's personality and most recently his illness with coronavirus. But we're looking here in this episode at policy, Howard,

has America's retreat from global involvements weakened the architecture of major institutions, such as the United Nations and the World Trade Organization. Yes, I don't think there's any doubt that the US retreat has weakened the global architecture. I mean, any architecture holds an architect, and the US was the architect. And for a very specific reason, I mean, it was thought, and all these institutions were developed because it was seen as actually kind of a bargain for the United States. I mean, you know, the more the world prospered, the United States would benefit.

So, yes, I would say, you know, dismantling that has affected everyone. Of course, I think Ashley mentioned the Paris Climate Accord, but of course, many consider that climate change, the world's greatest threat and will be once the coronavirus is addressed and taken care of. But again, as Peter was saying, there's no global cooperation on what is a globally existential threat. Joe Biden and Donald Trump have very different views of America's role in the world. What are they, Howard?

Well, I agree with Peter that if Joe Biden wins this election, it's not going to be a matter of flipping a switch and returning to a world of American leadership of 2016. For one thing, this process of the U.S. retreat really, there are aspects of it that began under President Obama. But I think that Joe Biden, he has said he will return to the Paris Climate Accords. I don't think that there will be an effort to automatically return to the Iran nuclear deal, but perhaps some new negotiations. But I think there will be some return or effort

to return to the concept of America leading its alliances and sort of strength together rather than standing alone. One example where the US has been involved diplomatically is in the Middle East. Bahrain and the United Arab Emirates have recognized Israel after decades of hostility, but elsewhere there's been a pulling back of American involvement in regional conflicts. How does that change the global outlook? Peter? As I say, you know, while the cats away, the mice will play, and leaders around the world, allies of the United States have started to do things and realize they can get away with that the United States is not going to do anything around it. So we have, for example, in India, we've had President Modi unknowing Kashmir's autonomy, just like that. And it was not a squeak and Washington about this.

President Aldo won, sent troops to invade Northeastern Syria to fight Kurds who were actually part of the West of Alliance. Mr. Trump didn't only not say anything, he actually enabled it by pulling American troops out three or four days before everyone moved. So quite a lot of leaders around the world who are getting used to get away with things because the Americans are absent. And I think once that mood takes hold in these leaders, they are reluctant to let go. And I think any American president is going to have to cope with that. You're listening to Let's Find Common Ground.

I'm Richard. And I'm Ashley. We're speaking with Peter Ford and Howard LaFranque of the Christian Science Monitor. Before hearing more, first a word of something new from Common Ground Committee. How often do you say, what's the score? How are they doing? As in, how is your member of Congress, Senator Governor or the presidential candidates doing to find common ground?

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Learn more at commongroundschoolcard.org. Now more from Howard LaFranque and Peter Ford. Howard, I take it that whoever is elected, the likelihood that the US would send large numbers of troops back to Iraq or Afghanistan. This probably off the table, isn't it? Yes. That's right. And that kind of intervention, as we saw from President Bush

after the 9-11 attacks, the invasion of Overwatch, that's not going to happen again. But I would also say that I think the hostility and standing up to China, whoever takes office in January next year, that is becoming very bipartisan position. That invites a question on the theme of our podcast, which is Let's Find Common Ground. Are there common ground aspects that are shared by both President Trump and Joe Biden, Peter? Well, I think that the clearly are,

and everybody's approach has changed radically over the last three or four years, certainly since I left Beijing, right years ago, it's an entirely different relationship. I think that's common ground on a concern about China's actions and militarization of the US-China Sea. There's common concern about China's theft and intellectual property. There's concern, although not a regular action, but a common concern about how China has behaved and will behave in Hong Kong. There's a great number of issues on which, from the Biden and the Republicans and Democrats

agree about China policy. The question is, frankly, how many of them will they act on? I think, too, there will be some common ground on trade policy, agriculture trade policy for example, there could be quite a bit of common ground between Republicans and Democrats. And you might also see some effort to join the Trans-Pacific Partnership since that has gone ahead as 11 countries instead of 12 as it was originally designed with it included the United States. That could be something that could be relatively easy for the United States to do and that too would be a way. Remember that that trade agreement was set up not just as a trade agreement but really as a way of strengthening the community of free economies and democracies in the Pacific Basin. Has America been weakened by America first?

Are we now America alone? I would say yes. Peter mentioned the WHO, for example, and how it weakens the world's response to such a crisis. If there isn't some country leading the global effort to address that kind of crisis. And if you look back to Ebola, for example, which the United States was slow in responding to that, but once it did, it really sort of marshalled contributions and effort from many countries, and that crisis was stopped in its tracks and was most people believe that it was well addressed by the international community led by the United States. So to not be playing that role in this crisis, I think that weakens the United States and you can kind of go down the line. If you look at the Iran nuclear deal, for example,

the United States is alone standing outside of that agreement. And it's hard to argue that the United States is stronger because of that. I think there's no doubt that's how I'm saying that the America is alone. It's a load also on Paris climate agreement, the only country that I've been signed in. But I think the most important aspect of this is the United States has lost a lot of respect. And Peter, an example of this decline in respect is how this country has handled coronavirus. A recent poll from Pew Research asked people overseas about this.

And the general perception around the world is that the United States has failed this morning, dealing with coronavirus. The median of just 15% and 13% countries of Pew looked at. The median of just 15% said the US had done a good job dealing with coronavirus. But, um, Yasha Monk, who teaches at Harvard, something he said that, um,

that COVID has made people take the US less seriously. And if people look at you with pity, that's not a great qualification for heading up the free world. And I think the coronavirus has done has dealt a serious lack of America's reputation in the world. I'd like to talk about the future and what might happen under a Biden or Trump administration, first with Donald Trump, what will change or be reinforced

Donald Trump, what will change or be reinforced around the world as a result of a Trump re-election? I don't think the direction of the Trump and the change at all. I've been seeing anything that would make him change direction unless we're looking at an all-out confrontation with the Chinese and backing down, which is unlikely. What will change is I think that the world will become more fragmented, because the institutions that hold it together will be weakened or undivided, but simply stop functioning. As WTO, for example, stop functioning, as WTO for example, is effectively paralyzed. Because it has no appellate body, because the United States won't

improve it in your judges. So low level work goes on, but the important work of the WTO has had to stop. And we'll probably see that with other institutions. And of course, when there are institutions holding things together and holding people together and offering before which they can talk, this understanding is arise, mistakes get made,

and people do things that they would regret later and could possibly be very dangerous. Howard, how do you see it? Basically, if I don't see a second term for Donald Trump being that much different. But I do think it's important to point out as well. I mean, we talk about retreat, which is true. But the United States, for example, even under the Trump administration has remained the largest humanitarian donor, and as a donor to education programs for refugee children.

And those populations are higher than they've ever been. The Trump administration is proud of, you know, mentioning that the United States has remained the largest humanitarian donor. The problem I see, though, is that there's probably little little sign that the, that a second Trump administration would really go after addressing the causes, the reasons there are more refugees than ever since World War II. And if Joe Biden wins, how would things change? I think there would be a very quick signaling anyway that a more cooperative United States is back on the stage.

And I wouldn't be surprised to see under a President Biden something early, some sort of a tour, try to repair relations, especially with our closest allies. I mean, I think making nice with the briefed allies is a pretty cost-free enterprise. The trouble is that I don't think this, and you likely heard of and the problem is that I don't think that's any likely heard of a tour of the briefed allies in the immediate future because some of the American President's been gated, traveled very lightly the next two months. So we can have virtual makeup sessions. A Zoom makeup session. Between Biden and a whole screen for the people. Exactly. One of those multi-person Zoom conversations with everyone's opposed part.

Peter, this one's for you because you've lived all over the world. How does it feel to you personally as you view America from Europe about what's going on in the United States in the past few years? Who's appointing, I think. When I was growing up up I was always strongly critical of the United States and US foreign policy. But having as you say lived all of the world and most recently in China for 10 years became clear to me that I certainly do not want China really well and the only

country that could stand for the sorts of things that I stood for was the United States with all its faults. And the last few years have suggested that maybe the United States won't snap on and I think that votes ill for the world's future and it continues to be the case. When you say it, the United States is no longer standing for the principles it wants, for, I assume you mean the principles of democracy, of freedom of press, of freedom of speech, of standing up for human rights, at least to a limited degree. Yes, those are the fundamentals. I think there has room to doubt how committed the president is, how deeply they resonate

with him in his heart and his mind, and it takes that kind of commitment to impose those sorts of values. Are either of you hopeful about the near and long-term future of America's role in the world or is it inevitable that American leadership will not be what it was even in the post-Cold War world of the 1990s and early 2000s. Well, I don't think they're mutually exclusive. I think we can be hopeful. It can't. It won't be back the way it used to be. I mean, I think a solidly unipolar world, stuff we have with World Solidarity, it was not necessarily a good thing and we saw the results in Iraq and Afghanistan. I think that is inevitable, that's America

will share power. As Howard said, America's withdrawal from the world stage major its reluctance to play the decisive role always on the world's age, predates President Trump and reflects economic and geopolitical realities beyond the world's control. So what's been called the rise of the rest? So there's no way that we're going back to the unipolar world of the 90s and 90s but that's not necessarily bad thing. Yes, I think a much more multipolar world is what is in our future. I would say I'm hopeful that some sort of middle point can be found where there is still a leadership from the United States on the values that really much

of the world, whether we saw it in Hong Kong or, you know, I see it when I report in India, but I think there is still a place in a vital role for American leadership on the values that the United States has built with its allies over the past seven or eight decades. And I do think that there is hope for keeping those values alive and really taking them farther. Thank you very much. Yes, thanks so much for joining us. That's been fun. This podcast is part of our briefing series on the election.

Learn more about finding common ground and also the new scorecard ratings of your elected representatives at common groundcommittie.org. Thanks for listening.