Lex Fridman Podcast - #338 – Chamath Palihapitiya: Money, Success, Startups, Energy, Poker & Happiness

Starting point is 00:00:00 The following is a conversation with Chimath Palaepatia, Adventure Capitalist and Engineer, Founder and CEO of Social Capital, previously an early senior executive at Facebook, and is the co-host of the All-In podcast, a podcast that I highly recommend for the wisdom and the camaraderie of the four co-hosts, also known as Besties.

Starting point is 00:00:29 And now a quick few second mention of each sponsor. Check them out in the description is the best way to support this podcast. We got Bambi for HR services, Inside Tracker for biomodinering, NetSuite for business management software, simply safe for home security and indeed for hiring, choose wise to my friends. And now onto the full ad reads, as always, no ads in the middle.

Starting point is 00:00:48 I try to make this interesting, but if you skip them, please still check out our sponsors. I enjoy their stuff. Maybe you will too. This show is brought to you by a new sponsor called Bambi, and now it's sourced and automated human resources, HR solution for businesses. I think in the video on their website, it says that many businesses would need to hire an HR person, and that's like 70K a year plus.

Starting point is 00:01:17 So what they're offering is super cost effective because it's just 99 bucks per month, and they take care of the HR compliance and all the complexities involved with that. It's important to hire people that can take care of human resources. HR is one of those things that, when done poorly, it can really hurt. And when done well, it just makes everything work beautifully.

Starting point is 00:01:39 So you should use the best tools for the job, a really cost effective one is Bambi. You can schedule your free conversation today, go to bambi.com and type Lex under the podcast when you sign up. It's spelled B-A-M-B-E-E. This shows also brought to you by Inside Tracker, a service I use to track biological data. It's kind of interesting to think of the human body as just the source of signals. You got a hierarchy of living organisms,

Starting point is 00:02:11 millions of them, billions of them, depending how you define the atomic organisms that make up the human body. And so all of them are sending signals, tiny signals, big signals, and all of those that conglomerate, that orchestra, sends just a huge amount of data which is used by the brain and the nervous system and the immune system and all the different systems that make up the anatomy and the physiology of the

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Starting point is 00:03:07 That's insidetracker.com slash lux. This show is also brought to you by NetSuite and all in one cloud business management system. They manage financials, inventory, e-commerce, all the different business-related details. The addres today, and it's funny because it's on the Chimouth episode and Chimouth is one of the greatest business leaders and minds and investors and VCs and technologists and engineers and just intellectuals honestly that I've ever listened to and gotten a chance to interact with. He's with really brilliant guy. Anyway, just first principles thinker, bold thinker, you know, even when he's wrong, he'll push forward and then realize through first principles thinking that he's wrong and he'll

Starting point is 00:03:56 admit it. I mean, just really honest brilliant person. Anyway, it's funny that on this episode, we got all kinds of business related advertisers. And I think that makes perfect sense, and that's great because running a business is not just about great leadership or about hiring a great team. All those are obviously exceptionally important. But it's also running and taking care of all the glue that ties everything together. So that means human resources, but that also means managing the inventory, the e-commerce, managing all the financial stuff, automating everything that

Starting point is 00:04:29 you can automate, making it easy, efficient, using the best tools for the job. That's where NetSuite fits in. Got a NetSuite.com slash Lex to access their one-of-a-kind financing program. This shows also brought to you by SimplySafe, a home security company, designed to be simple and effective. It took me no time. I don't remember how long it was. Maybe 30 minutes, maybe less. I don't remember. But they say it takes you 30 minutes to set up. You can customize the system for your needs. I have a set up in my place. I love it. It's the first layer of physical security to my place. I have many layers of physical and cyber digital emotional psychological security, although probably the biggest vulnerabilities to me is

Starting point is 00:05:14 psychological security because I really try to wear my heart on my sleeve and really take the world in. The opinion of the world, the pain of the world, the struggle of the world, and not in the way where I want the approval of the world. I really don't, but I want to empathize with the experience of others and understand it. And when you do that, what you find as your mind can be hacked. This complicated psychological can be hacked. This complicated psychological landscape to operate in is so tricky. But of course, that's way more complicated than physical security. Physical security should be taken care of. That's the smart thing to do. You should use a simple system for that and affect the system. Easy to set up, easy to use. That's what simply safe is. Go to simplysafe.com slashlex and get 50% off any new system.

Starting point is 00:06:07 This show is also brought to you by Indeed, a hiring website. I can't told you, Chamath episode, we're talking all about business. I don't know. Maybe it's just to me, but I think the most important thing for successful business is building a great team. That's also the most important thing for your own personal happiness and growth and psychological flourishing. Anyway, the process of hiring, the early stage of selecting a great pool of candidates

Starting point is 00:06:37 quickly, then from those candidates, selecting it down to a good fit, good resume, good skill, good personality, diversity, all those elements that make up a great team. There's the stepwise process that's really painful, that's really difficult to turn into a science. I really do think it's part art, part science, just like conversation. And whatever can be made easier, more efficient, more organized, you should do. Indeed, does that. It's a great tool.

Starting point is 00:07:09 They have an instant match tool that does that first step of finding the set of candidates that fit the job description. They do that immediately. Anyway, they have a special offer only available for a limited time. Check out at indeed.com-lex terms and conditions apply. This is the Lex Freedom & Podcast. Disappointed, please check out our sponsors in the description, and now, dear friends, here's Chimouth, Bala Habbatia. You grew up in a dysfunctional household on welfare.

Starting point is 00:07:59 You've talked about this before. What were for you personally, psychologically psychologically some difficult moments in your childhood? I'll answer that question in a slightly different way, which is that I think when you grow up in a household that's defined by physical abuse and psychological abuse, you're hyper-vigilant all the time. And so it's actually easier for me to point to moments where I was happy or I felt compassion or I felt safe. Otherwise, every moment, I'll give you a couple of examples. You know, I was thinking about this a while ago. There was a tree outside of my apartment where we lived when I was growing up. And my father

Starting point is 00:08:45 sometimes would make me go outside to take the tree branch that he would hit me with. And so you can imagine if you're a 10-11-year-old kid and you have to deal with that, what do you do? Well, a hyper-vigilant child learns how to basically estimate the strength of these branches, right? How far can he go before it breaks? You have to estimate his anger and estimate the effective strength of branches and bring back something because I remember these moments

Starting point is 00:09:19 where if it was, he would look at it and then he would make me go out again and get it, right? Get a different one. Or there was a certain belt that he wore that had this kind of belt buckle that stuck out and You just wanted to make sure if that if that was the thing that you were gonna get hit by That it wasn't the buckle facing out because that really hurt. And so you became hyper aware of which part of the buckle was facing out versus facing in in those moments. And there are like hundreds

Starting point is 00:09:52 of these little examples, which essentially I would say the through line is that you're just so on edge, right? And you walk into this house and you're just basically trying to get to the point where you leave the house. And so in that microcosm of growing up, any moment that's not like that is seared in my memory in a way that I just can't describe to a person. I'll give you an example. I volunteered when I was in grade five or six, I can't remember which it was in the kindergarten of my school. I would just go and the teacher would ask you to clean things up. At the end of that grade five year, she took me and two other kids to Dairy Queen.

Starting point is 00:10:39 I'd never gone to a restaurant literally because we just, we didn't have the money. And I remember the first time I tasted this, you know, this dairy queen meal. It was like a hamburger, fries, a coke, and a, a blizzard. And I was like, what is this? And I felt so special, you know, because you're getting something that most people would take for granted. Oh, it's a Sunday or it's a, you know, or I'm really busy. Let me go take my kid to To fast food. I think that, you know, until I left high school, I Think and this is not just specific to me, but a lot of other people. It's You're in this hyper vigilant loop

Starting point is 00:11:23 Punctuated with these incredibly visceral moments of compassion by other people. A different example, we had such a strict budget, and we didn't have a car. And so, I was responsible with my mom to always go shopping. And so I learned very early on how to look for coupons, how to buy things that were on sale or special. And we had a very basic diet because you have to budget this thing really precisely. But the end of every year where I lived, there was a large grocery chain law-blows and law-blows would discount a cheesecake from $7.99 to $4.99. And my parents would

Starting point is 00:12:12 buy that once a year and we probably did that six or seven times. And you can't imagine how special we felt. Myself, my two sisters, we would sit there, we would watch the New Year's Eve celebration on TV, we would cut this cheesecake into five pieces. It felt like everything. So that's sort of how my existence, when I was at that age, is for better or for worse, that's how I remember it. The hypervisionless loop, is that still with you today? What are the echoes of that still with you today? The good and the bad.

Starting point is 00:12:51 If you put yourself in the mind of a young child, the thing that that does to you is at a very core basic level. It says you're worthless, right? Because if you can step outside of that and you think about any child in the world, they don't deserve to go through that. And at some point, by the way, I should tell you, like, I don't blame my parents anymore. It was a process to get there, but I feel like they did the best they could. And they suffered their own issues and enormous pressures and stresses. And so, you know, I've really, for the most part, forgiven them.

Starting point is 00:13:38 How did you, sorry, to interrupt? Let go of that blame. That was a really long process where, for I would say the first 35 years of my life, I compartmentalized and I avoided all of those memories. And I saw external validation, right, going back to this self-worth idea. If you're taught as a child that you're worthless, because why would somebody do these things to you? It's not because you're worth something. You think to yourself very viscerally, you're worth nothing. And so then you go out and you seek external validation. Maybe you try to go and get into a great college. You try to get a good job. You try to make a lot of money. You try to demonstrate in superficial ways with the car you drive or the

Starting point is 00:14:26 clothes you wear that you deserve people to care about you, to try to make up for that really deep hole. But at some point, it doesn't get filled in. And so you have a choice. And so for me, what happened was in the course of a six month period, I lost my best friend and I lost my father. And it was really like the dam broke loose because the compartmentalization stopped working because the reminder of why I was compartmentalizing was gone. And so I had to go through this period of disharmony to really understand and steal man his perspective. And can you imagine trying to do that, to go through all of the things where you have to now look at it from his perspective and find compassion and empathy for what he went through.

Starting point is 00:15:23 And then I shift the focus to my mom and I said, well, you were not the victim, actually. You were somewhat complicit as well because you were of sound mind and body and you were in the room when it happened. So then I had to go through that process with her and steal man, her perspective. And at the end of it, I never justified what they did,

Starting point is 00:15:44 but I've been able to forgive what they did. I think they did the best they could. And at the end of the day, they did the most important thing, which is they gave me and my sisters a shot by emigrating, by giving up everything, by staying in Canada, and doing whatever it took between the two of them to sort of claw and scrape together enough money to live so that my sisters and I could have a shot. And I'm very thankful for them. Could they have done better, obviously, but I'm okay with what is taking place. But it's been a long process of that steel manning so that you can develop some empathy and compassion and forgive.

Starting point is 00:16:26 Do you think if you talked to your dad shortly after he died and you went to that process or today you'll be able to have the same strength to forgive him? I think it would be a very complicated journey. I think I've learned to be incredibly open about what has happened and all of the mistakes I've made, I think it would require him to be pretty radically honest about confirming what I think he went through, because otherwise it just wouldn't work. Otherwise, I would say, let's keep things where they are, which is, I did the work, you know, with people that have helped me, obviously, but, you know, it's better for him to just,

Starting point is 00:17:18 you know, kind of hopefully he's looking from some place and he's thinking, it was worth it. I think he deserves to think that all of this because you know I think the immigrant challenge we're not even the immigrant challenge the lower middle class challenge anybody who really wants better for their kids and doesn't have a good toolkit to give it to them. Some of them just they choke up on the bat. They just get so agitated about this idea that all this sacrifice will not be worth it, that it spills out in really unproductive ways. And I would put him in that category. And there is self-evaluation, introspection, they have tunnel vision, so they're not

Starting point is 00:18:01 able to often see the damage that did. I mean, I know, like yourself, a few successful people that had very difficult relationships with their dad, and you take the perspective of the dad, they're completely in denial about any of it. So if you actually have a conversation, there would not be a deep honesty there. And that I think that's maybe in part the way of life. Yeah, and I remember pretty distinctly after I left and in my middle 30s, where by all measure, I had roughly become reasonably successful.

Starting point is 00:18:42 And my dad didn't particularly care about that, which was so odd because I had to confront the fact that, you know, whether it was a title or money or press clippings, he never really cared. He moved on to a different set of goals, which was more about my character and, you know, being a good person to my family and really preparing me to lead our family when he wasn't there. And that bothered me because I thought I thought I got to the finish line and I thought there was going to be a metal, you know, meaning like I can tell you Lex, you know, he never told me that he loved me. I'm not sure if that's normal or not. It was my normality. And I thought there's going to be something, some gold star, which never appeared. And so that's normal or not, it was my normality. And I thought there's gonna be something, some gold star, which never appeared.

Starting point is 00:19:28 And so that's like a hard thing to kind of confront because you're like, well, now what is this, what is this all about? Was this all just kind of a ruse? But then I realized, well, hold on a second, there were these moments where in his way, again, putting yourself in his shoes, I think he was trying to say he was sorry. He would hold my hand.

Starting point is 00:19:52 You know, and he would interlock the fingers, which I felt is that's a really intimate way of holding somebody's hand, I think. So I remember those things. So you know, these are the things that are just etched in at least in my mind. And at the end of it, you know, I think I've done a decent job in repairing my relationship with him, even though, you know, it was posthumous. It does make me wonder in which way you and I, we might be broken and not see it. It might be hurting others and not see it. Well, I think that when you grew up in those kinds of environments and they're all

Starting point is 00:20:27 different kinds of this kind of dysfunction, but if what you get from that is that you're not worthwhile, you're not, you're less than many, many other people. When you enter adulthood or, you know, semi adulthood in your early 20s, you will be in a cycle where you are hurting other people. You may not know it. Hopefully you find somebody who holds you accountable and tells you and loves you enough through that. But you are going to take all of that disharmony in your childhood and you're going to inject that disharmony into whether it's your professional relationships or your personal relationships or both until you get to some form of rock bottom and you start to repair. And I think there's a lot of people that resonate with that because they have each suffered

Starting point is 00:21:19 their own things that at some point in their lives have told them that they're less than. And then they go and cope. And when you cope, eventually those coping mechanisms escalate. And at some point, it'll be unhealthy, either for you, but oftentimes it's for the people around you. Well, from those humble beginnings, you are now a billionaire. How has money changed your life, or maybe the landscape of experience in your life? Does it buy happiness?

Starting point is 00:21:55 It doesn't buy happiness, but it buys you a level of comfort for you to really amplify what happiness is. I kind of think about it in the following way. Let's just say that there's a hundred things on a table and the table says find happiness here and there are different prices. The way that the world works

Starting point is 00:22:20 is that many of these experiences are cordoned off, little bit behind a velvet rope, where you think that there's more happiness Is that many of these experiences are cordoned off little bit behind a velvet rope where You think that there's more happiness as the prices of things escalate Right, if you live in an apartment you admire the person with the house If you live in a house you admire the person with the bigger house That person admires the person with you know an island right Some person drives their car admires a person who flies who admires a person who flies business class who admires a person who flies first

Starting point is 00:22:58 You know to private there's all of these escalations on this table and Most people get to the first five or six and so they just naturally assume that items, you know, seven through a hundred is really where happiness is found. And just to, you know, tell you the finish line, I've tried a hundred and back and I've tried to do more hundred to it. And happiness isn't there. But it does give you a level of comfort. I read a study, and I don't know if it's true or not,

Starting point is 00:23:29 but it said that the absolute sort of like maximal link between money and happiness is around $50 million. And there was, it was just like a social studies kind of thing that I think one of the Ivy Leaks put out. And underneath it, the way that they explained it was just like a social studies kind of thing that I think one of the Ivy Leaks put out. And underneath it, the way that they explained it was because you could have a home, you could have all kinds of the creature comforts, you could take care of your family. And then you were left to ponder what it is that you really want.

Starting point is 00:23:59 I think the challenge for most people is to realize that this escalating arms race of, you know, more things will solve your problems is not true. More and better is not the solution. It's this idea that you are on a very precise journey that's unique to yourself. You are playing a game of which only you are the player. Everybody else is an interloper and you have a responsibility to design the gameplay. And I think a lot of people don't realize that

Starting point is 00:24:38 because if they did, I think they would make a lot of different decisions about how they lived their life. And I still do the same thing. I mean revert to basically running around asking other people, what will make you like me more? You know, what will make me more popular in your eyes? And I try to do it. And it never works. It is just a complete dead end. Is there negative aspects to money? Like, for example, it becoming harder to find people you can trust. I think the most negative aspect is that it amplifies a 360 degree view of your personality. Because there are a lot of people and society tells you that more money is actually better.

Starting point is 00:25:24 You are a better person somehow, and you're actually more worthwhile than some other people that have less money. That's also a lie. But when you're given that kind of attention, it's very easy for you to become a caricature of yourself. That's probably the single worst thing that happens to you. But I say it in the opposite way.

Starting point is 00:25:44 I think all I've ever seen in Silicon Valley as an example is that when somebody gets a hold of a lot of money, it tends to cause them to become exactly who they were meant to be. They're either a kind person, they're either a curious person, they're either a jerk, you know, they're either cheap, and they can use all kinds of masks, but now that there's no expectations and society gives you a get out of jail free card, you start to behave the way that's most comfortable to you. So you see somebody's innate personality. And that's a really interesting thing to observe because then you can very quickly bucket

Starting point is 00:26:19 sort. Where do you want to spend time and who is really you know additive to your gameplay And who is really a negative detractor to your gameplay? You're an investor, but you're also a kind of philosopher You analyze the world in all his different perspectives on all in podcast on Twitter everywhere Do you worry that money makes puts you out of touch from being able to truly empathize with the experience of the general population, which in part, first of all, on a human level that could be limiting, but also as an analyst of human civilization that could be limiting?

Starting point is 00:27:03 I think it definitely can for a lot of people because it's just an abstraction for you to stop caring. I also think the other thing is that you can very quickly, especially in today's world, become the scapegoat just to use a gerardi and like René Gerard, if you look, if you think about like mimetic theory in a nutshell, you know, we're all competing for these very scarce resources that we are told is worthwhile. And if you view the world through that gerardian lens, what are we really doing? We are all fighting for scarce resources, whether that's Twitter followers, money, acclaim, notoriety, and we all compete with each other.

Starting point is 00:27:47 And in that competition, you know, Gerard writes, like the only way you escape that loop is by scapegoating something or somebody. And I think we are in that loop right now where just the fact of being successful is a thing that one should scapegoat to end all of this, you know, tension that we have in the world. I think that it's a little misguided because I don't think it solves the fundamental problem. And we can talk about what the solution to some of these problems are, but that's, I think, the loop that we're all living. And so if you become a caricature caricature and you feed yourself into it,

Starting point is 00:28:26 I mean, you're not doing anything to really advance things. Your nickname is the dictator. How'd you get the nickname? We're talking about the corrupting nature of money. That came from poker. In a poker game, you know, when you sit down, it's chaos, especially like in our home game, there's a ton of big egos, there's people always watching, you know, rail birding the game, all kinds of interesting folks. And in that, somebody needs to establish hygiene and rules. And I really care about the integrity of the game. And it would just require somebody to just say, okay, enough. And so, and then people were just like, okay, stop dictating. And that's where that, that's where that nickname came from.

Starting point is 00:29:06 So, who to you speaking of which is the greatest poker of player of all time? And why is it Phil Helmuth? Exactly. You know, Muth probably knew this question was coming. Yeah. Here's what I'll say. Helmuth is the antidote to computers,

Starting point is 00:29:22 more than any other player playing today. And when you see him in a heads up situation, so I think like he's played nine or 10 heads up tournaments in a row, and he's played like basically call it 10 of the top 20 people so far, and he's beaten all but one of them. When you're playing heads up, you know, one V one, that is the most GTO understandable spot, meaning game theory optimal position. That's where computers can give you an enormous

Starting point is 00:29:56 edge. The minute you add even a third player, the value of computers and the value of their recommendations basically falls off a cliff. So one way to think about it is, Helm youth is forced to play against people that are essentially trained like AIs. And so to be able to beat, you know, 8 out of 9 of them means that you are playing so orthogonally to what is considered game theory optimal and you're overlaying human reasoning. The judgment to say, well, in this spot, I should do X, but I'm going to do Y. It's not dissimilar in chess like what makes, you know, Magnus Carlson so good. You know, sometimes he takes these weird lines, he'll sacrifice positions, you know, he'll overplay certain positions where certain, you know,

Starting point is 00:30:41 bishops versus knights and all of these spots that are very confusing. were certain, you know, bishops versus knights and all of these spots that are very confusing. And what it does is it throws people off their game. I think he just won a recent online tournament and it's like by move six, there is no GTO move for his opponent to make because it's like out of the rule book, maybe he read some game, you know, I read the quote, it was like he probably read some game in some bar in Russia in 1954, memorized it, and all of a sudden by six moves in the computer AI is worthless. So that's what makes home youth great. There is one person that I think is superior.

Starting point is 00:31:19 And I think it's what Daniel also said, and I would echo that because I played Phil as well, but Phil Ivy is the most well-rounded Cold-blooded Bloodthirsty animal He is he's just and he sees into your soul Lex in a way where you're just like oh my god stop looking at me Have you ever played him? Yeah, we have. We've played. And he crushes the games. Crushes the games.

Starting point is 00:31:49 So what is feeling crushed mean and feel like in poker? Is it like that you just can't read at all? You being constantly pressured. You feel off balance. You try to bluff and the person reads you perfectly. That kind of stuff. It's a really, really excellent question because I think this has parallels to a bunch of other things.

Starting point is 00:32:09 Okay, let's just use poker as a microcosm to explain a bunch of other systems or games. Maybe it's running a company or investing, okay? So let's use those three examples, but we use poker to explain it. What does success look like? Well success looks like you have positive expected value, right? In poker, the simple way to summarize that is your opponent, let's just say you and I are playing, are going to make a bunch of mistakes. There's a bunch of it that's going to be absolutely perfect.

Starting point is 00:32:41 And then there's a few spots where you make mistakes. And then there's a bunch of places in the poker game where I play perfectly and I make a few mistakes. Basically, your mistakes, minus my mistakes is the edge, right? That's how poker works. If I make fewer mistakes than you make, I will make money and I will win. That is the objective of the game.

Starting point is 00:33:07 Translate that into business. You're running a company. You have a team of employees. You have a pool of human capital that's capable of being productive in the world and creating something. But you are going to make mistakes in making that. Maybe it doesn't completely fit the market. Maybe it's mispriced. Maybe it actually doesn't require all of the people that you need. So the

Starting point is 00:33:31 margins are wrong. And then there's the competitive set of all the other alternatives that customer has. Their mistakes minus your mistakes is the expected value of Google, Facebook, Apple, etc. Okay. Now take investing. Every time you buy something, somebody else on the other side is selling it to you. Is that their mistake? We don't know yet. But their mistakes minus your mistakes is how you make a lot of money over long periods of time as an investor. Somebody sold you Google at $40 to share. You bought it and you kept it. Huge mistake on their part, minimum mistakes on your part. The difference of that is the money that you made. So life can be summarized in many ways in that way. So the question is, what can you do about

Starting point is 00:34:23 other people's mistakes? And the answer is nothing. That is somebody else's game. You can try to influence them. You could try to subvert them. Maybe you plant a spy inside of that other person's company to sabotage them. I guess there are things at the edges that you can do. But my firm belief is that life's success really boils down to how do you control your mistakes? Now this is a bit counterintuitive. The way you control your mistakes is by making a lot of mistakes. So taking risks is somehow. You have to.

Starting point is 00:34:58 You have to minimize the number of mistakes. Let's just say you want to find love. You know, you want to find something deeply connected with. Yeah. Are you do you do that by not going out on dates? Yes. Sorry. Sorry.

Starting point is 00:35:13 It's the only person that thinks that's yes. No, I'm joking. I'm joking. No, but you know what I mean? Like, you have to date people. You have to open yourself up. You have to be authentic. And like, you give yourself a chance to get hurt. Yes. But you're a good person. So you know what happens when you're self-up, you have to be authentic and like you give yourself a chance to get hurt.

Starting point is 00:35:26 Yes. But you're a good person. So you know what happens when you get hurt? That is actually their mistake, okay? And if you are inauthentic, that's your mistake. That's a controllable thing in you. You can tell them the truth who you are and say, here's my pluses and minuses.

Starting point is 00:35:43 My point is there are very few things in life that you can't break down, I think, into that very simple idea. And in terms of your mistakes, society tells you, don't make them because we will judge you and we will look down on you. And I think the really successful people realize that actually know it's the cycle time of mistakes

Starting point is 00:36:05 that gets you to success. Because your error rate will diminish the more mistakes that you make, you observe them, you figure out where it's coming from. Is it a psychological thing? Is it a cognitive thing? And then you fix it. So the implied thing there is that there's in business and investing in poker and dating in life is that there's this platonic GTO game theory optimal thing out there.

Starting point is 00:36:33 And so when you say mistakes, you're always comparing to that optimal path you could have taken. I think slightly different, I would say mistake is maybe a bad proxy, but it's the best proxy I have for learning But I'm using the language of what society tells you sure got it Society tells you that when you try something and it doesn't work. It's a mistake So I just use that word because it's the word that resonates most with most people got it The real thing that it is is learning. Yeah, it's like in neural networks, it's lost. The neural network is lost. Exactly. Yeah.

Starting point is 00:37:08 Right. So you're using the mistake that is most the the word that is most understandable, especially by the way people experience it. I guess most of life is a sequence of mistakes. The problem is when you use the word mistake and you think about mistakes, it actually has a counterproductive effect of you becoming conservative in just being risk averse. So if you flip it and say try to maximize the number of successes, somehow that leads you to take more risk. Mistake scare people. I think mistakes scare people because society likes these very simplified

Starting point is 00:37:52 boundaries of who is winning and who is losing. And they want to reward people who make traditional choices and succeed, but the thing is what's so Corrosive about that is that they're actually not even being put in a position to actually make a quote unquote mistake and fail So I'll give you a if you look at like getting into an elite school Right society rewards you for being in the Ivy leagues to an elite school, right? Society rewards you for being in the Ivy League. In a way that, you know, in my opinion, incorrectly, doesn't reward you for being in a non-IV League school. There's a certain level of status and presumption of intellect and capability that comes with being there. But that system doesn't really have a counterfactual because it's not as if you both go to MIT and

Starting point is 00:38:45 Ohio State. And then we can see two versions of Lex Friedman so that we can figure out that the jig is up and there is no difference. And so instead it reinforces this idea that there is no truth seeking function. There is no way to actually make this thing whole. And so it tells you you have to get in here, and if you don't, your life is over. You've made a huge mistake, you know, or you failed completely. And so you have to find different unique ways of dismantling this.

Starting point is 00:39:16 This is why, you know, part of what I've realized where I got very lucky is I had no friends in high school. I had a few in high school. I had a few cohort of acquaintances, but part of being so hypervigilant when I grew up was I was so ashamed of that world that I had to live in. I didn't wanna bring anyone into it. I could not see myself that anybody would accept me.

Starting point is 00:39:43 But the thing with that is that I had no definition of what expectations should be. So they were not guided by the people around me. And so I would escape to define my expectations. It's interesting, but you didn't feel like your dad didn't put you in a prison of expectation. Or we, because like that's, if you have a friend, like that, so the flip side of that, you don't have any other signals, it's very easy to believe like when you're an occult.

Starting point is 00:40:12 That, well, he, you know, he was angry, he pushed me, he used me as a mechanism to alleviate his own frustration. And this may sound very crazy, but he also believed in me. And so that's what created this weird duality where you were just I was always confused. You could be somebody great. He believed that you could be. He did. I didn't truly special because I couldn't reconcile then the other half of the day, those behaviors.

Starting point is 00:40:50 But what it allowed me to do was I escaped in my mind and I found these archetypes around me that were saviors to me. So, I grew up in Ottawa, Ontario, Canada. I grew up right at the point where the telecom boom was happening, companies like Norteil and Newbridge Networks and MyTel, Bell Northern Research, these were all built in the suburbs of Ottawa. And so there were these larger than life figures, entrepreneurs, Terry Matthews, Michael Copeland.

Starting point is 00:41:19 And so I thought, I'm going to be like them. I would read Forbes magazine. I would read Fortune magazine. I would look at the rich people on that list and say, I gonna be like them. I would read Forbes magazine. I would read Fortune magazine. I would look at the rich people on that list and say I would be like them. Not knowing that maybe that's not who you wanted it to be, but it was a lifeline. And it kept my mind relatively whole

Starting point is 00:41:39 because I could direct my ambition in a direction. And so why that's so important just circling back to this is, I didn't have a group of friends who were like, I'm going to go to community college. You know, I didn't have a group of friends that said, well, you know, the goal is just to go to university, get a simple job and like, you know, join the public service, have a good life. And so because I had no expectations and I was so afraid to venture out of my own house, I never saw what middle-class life was like. And so I never asp no expectations and I was so afraid to venture out of my own house, I never saw what middle-class life was like.

Starting point is 00:42:07 And so I never aspired to it. Now, if I was close to it, I probably would have aspired to it because my parents and their best year made 32,000 Canadian together. And if you're trying to raise a family of five people on 32,000 dollars, it's a complicated job. And most of the time, they were probably

Starting point is 00:42:24 making 20-something thousand. And I was working since I was 14. So I knew that our station in life was not the destination. We had to get out. But because I didn't have an obvious place, it's not like I had a best friend whose house I was going to. And I saw some normal functional home. If I had had that in this weird way, I would have aspired to that. What was the worst job you had to do? The best job, but the worst job was I worked at Burger King when I was 14 years old and I would do the closing shift.

Starting point is 00:42:59 And that was from like 6 p.m. till about two in the morning. And in Ontario where I lived, Ottawa borders Quebec. In Ontario the drinking age is 19. You can see where I'm going with this. The drinking age in Quebec is 18. And that year made all the difference to all these kids. And so they would go get completely drunk.

Starting point is 00:43:19 They would come back. They would come to the Burger King. You know, you would see all these kids you went to high school with. Can you imagine how mortifying it is? You know, you're working there in this get up. And they would light that place on fire, vomit everywhere, puking, pooing, peeing. And when the thing shuts down at one o'clock, you know, you got to clean that all up, all of it, changing the garbage, taking it out, it was a grind. And it really teaches you, okay, I do not want this job.

Starting point is 00:43:55 I don't want to. But it's funny that they didn't push you towards the stability and the security of the middle class. Like, like, they didn't have any good examples of that. I didn't have those around me. I was so ashamed, I could have never built a relationship where I could have seen those interactions to want that. And so my desires were framed by these two random rich people

Starting point is 00:44:17 that lived in my town who I'd never met. And what I read in magazines about people like Bill Gates and Warren Buffett. You were an early senior executive at Facebook And what I read in magazines about people like Bill Gates and Warren Buffett. You were an early senior executive at Facebook during a period of a lot of scaling in the company history. I mean, it's actually a fascinating period of human history in terms of technology. Well, in terms of human civilization, honestly, what did you learn from that time about what it takes to build and scale a successful

Starting point is 00:44:47 tech company, a company that has almost immeasurable impact on the world? That was an incredible moment in time because everything was so new to your point, like even how the standards of Web 2.0 at that time were being defined, we were defining them. I mean, I think if you look in sort of the, if you search in the patents, there's a bunch of these patents that like me and Zach have for like random things like cookies, you know, or like cross-site JavaScript, like all these crazy things that are just like these duh kind of ideas in 2023, we had to invent our way around.

Starting point is 00:45:28 How do websites communicate with each other? You know, how do we build in the cloud versus in a data center? How do we actually have high performance systems? We mentioned data science, the term in the end. We invented this, I invented this thing called data scientist because we had a PhD from Google that refused to join unless because he got a job offer that says data analyst. And so he said column scientist because he was a PhD in particle physics.

Starting point is 00:45:52 So he really, you know, he was a scientist. And I said, great, you're a scientist here. And that launched a discipline. And that launched a discipline. I mean, a term, you know, what's a Rose Bain the other name, but yeah, like, you know, sometimes words like this can launch entire fields. what's a Rose Bane the other name, but yeah, like, you know, sometimes the words like this can launch entire fields. And it did in that case. And you didn't, I mean, I guess at that time,

Starting point is 00:46:11 you didn't anticipate the impact of machine learning and the entirety of this whole process, because you need machine learning to have both ads and recommender systems to have the feed for the social network. Exactly right. The first real scaled version of machine learning, not AI, but machine learning was this thing that Facebook introduced called PYMK, which is people you may know. And the simple idea was that can we initiate a viral mechanic inside the application? Where you log in, we grab your credentials, we go to your email inbox, we harvest your address book, we do a compare, we make some guesses, and we start to present other people that you may actually know that may not be in your address book.

Starting point is 00:46:54 Really simple, you know, a couple of joins of some tables, whatever. And it started to just go crazy and the number of people that you were creating this density and entropy inside the social graph with what was some really simple basic math. And that was eye-opening for us. And what it let us down this path of is really understanding the power of like all this machine learning. And so that infused itself into newsfeed, you know, and how the content that you saw could be tailored to who you were and the type of person that you were.

Starting point is 00:47:25 So, there was a moment in time that all of this stuff was so new. How did you translate the app to multiple languages? How do you launch the company in all of these countries? How much of it is just kind of stumbling into things using your best, like, first principles gut thinking? And how much is it, like, 5, 10, 15, 20 year vision? Like how much was thinking about the future of the internet and the metaverse and the humanity on all that kind of stuff? Like because the newsfeed sounds trivial. I'll say something. But that's like changes everything. Well, you have to remember like, you know, news feed was named and we

Starting point is 00:48:08 had this thing where we would just name things what they were. And at the time, all of these other companies, and if you go back into the way back machine, you can see this, people would vent, would invent, you know, an, I, you know, an MP3 player, and they would come up with some crazy name, or they would player, and they would come up with some crazy name, or they would invent a software product and come up with a crazy name, right? And it sounded like the pharma industry, you know, blocasmab, you know, tag your best friends. And you think, what is this? This makes no sense. And, you know, this was a zucks thing. It was like, well, this is a feed of news, so we're going to call it news feed.

Starting point is 00:48:45 This is where you tag your photos. So we're going to call that photo tagging. I mean, literally, you know, pretty obvious stuff. So the thing, the way that those things came about though was very experimentally. And this is where I think it's really important for people to understand. I think Bezos explains this the best. There's a tendency after things work

Starting point is 00:49:08 to create a narrative fallacy because it feeds your ego. And you want to have been the person that saw it coming. And I think it's much more honest to say, we were very good honest to say, we were very good probabilistic thinkers that tried to learn as quickly as possible, meaning to make as many mistakes as possible. You know, I mean, if you look at this very famous placard that Facebook had from back in the day, what did it say? It said, move fast and break things. In societal language, that's saying make mistakes as quickly as you can. Because in many, you break something. You don't do that by design, it's not a feature, theoretically it's a bug. But he understood that, and we embraced that idea.

Starting point is 00:49:55 I used to run this meeting once a week where the whole goal was, I want to see that there was a thousand experiments that were run and show me them all from the dumbest to the most impactful. And we would go through that loop and what did it train people, not that you got celebrated for the right answer, but you got celebrated for trying. I ran 12 experiments, 12 failed and we'd be like, you're the best. Can I just take a small tangent on that, is that move fast and break things Can I just take a small tangent on that, is that move fast and break things has become like a catch phrase of the thing that embodies the toxic culture of Socom Valley in today's

Starting point is 00:50:36 discourse, which confuses me, of course, words and phrases get captured and so on. Beacons very reductive. You know, that's a very loaded set of words that together can be many years later, people can view very reductive. Can you steal man each side of that? So, pro, move fast and break things and against move fast and break things. So I think the pro of move fast and break things

Starting point is 00:51:01 is saying the following. There's a space of things we know, and a massive space of things we don't know. And there's a rate of growth of the things we know, but the rate of growth of the things we don't know is actually we have to assume growing faster. So the most important thing is to move into the space of the things we don't know So the most important thing is to move into the space of the things we don't know as quickly as possible. And so in order to acquire knowledge, we're going to assume that the failure mode is the nominal state.

Starting point is 00:51:35 And so we just need to move as quickly as we can, break as many things as possible, which means like things are breaking in code, do the, you know, root cause analysis, figure out how to make things better and then rapidly move into the space. And he or she, who moves fastest into that space will win. It doesn't imply carelessness, right? It doesn't imply moving fast without also aggressively picking up the lessons from the mistakes you make. Well, again, that's steel manning the pro, which is it's a thoughtful movement around velocity and acquisition of knowledge.

Starting point is 00:52:18 Now let's steel man the con case. When these systems become big enough, there is no more room to experiment in an open-ended way because the implications have broad societal impacts that are not clear upfront. So let's take a different, less controversial example. If we said, you know, lipitor worked well for all people except South Asians, and there's a specific immunoresponse that we can iterate to. And if we move quickly enough, we can run 10,000 experiments, and we think the answer is in that space. Well, the problem is that those 10,000 experiments may kill 10 million people. So you have to move methodically. When that drug was experimental, and it wasn't being given to 500 million people in the world, moving fast made sense because you could have a pig model, a mouse model, a monkey model,

Starting point is 00:53:17 you could figure out toxicity, but we picked all that low hanging fruit. And so now these small iterations have huge impacts that need to be measured and implemented. Different example is like, you know, if you work at Boeing, and you have an implementation that gives you a 2% efficiency by reshaping the wing or adding winglets, there needs to be a methodical move slow B right process Because mistakes when they compound when it's already implemented and at scale have huge Extremities that are impossible to measure until after the fact and you see this in the 737 max

Starting point is 00:54:00 So that's how one would steal man the the con case Which is that when an industry becomes critical you got to slow down case, which is that when an industry becomes critical, you got to slow down. It makes me sad because some industries like Twitter and Facebook are a good example. They achieve scale very quickly before really exploring the big area of things to learn. So you basically pick one low-hanging fruit and that became your huge success and now you're sitting there with that stupid fruit. Clearly. Well, so you're I think so as an example, like you know, if you had to you know, if if I was running Facebook for a day, you know, the big opportunity in my opinion was really not the metaverse, but it was actually getting

Starting point is 00:54:46 the closest that anybody could get to AGI. And if I had to steal man that product case, here's how I would have pitched it to the board in Tizak, I would have said, listen, there are three and a half billion people monthly using this thing. If we think about human intelligence very reductively, we would say that there's a large portion of it, which is cognitive, and then there's a large portion of it, which is emotional. We have the best ability to build a multi-modal model that basically takes all of these massive inputs together to try to intuit how a system would react to all kinds of stimuli.

Starting point is 00:55:24 That, to me, would be a system would react to all kinds of stimuli. That, to me, would be a profound leap forward for humanity. Can you dig into that a little bit more? So, in terms of this is a board meeting, how would that make Facebook money? I think that you have all of these systems over time that we don't know could benefit from some layer of reasoning to make it better. What does Spotify look like when instead of just a very simple recommendation engine, it actually understands sort of your emotional context and your mood and can move you to a body of music that you would like.

Starting point is 00:56:08 What does it look like if you're television instead of having to go and channel surf, you know, 50,000 shows on a horrible UI, you know, instead just has a sense of what you're into and shows it to you. What does it mean when you get in your car and it actually drives you to a place because you should actually eat there even though you don't know it. These are all random things that make no sense a priority, but it starts to make the person or the provider of that service, the critical reasoning layer for all these everyday products that today would look very flat without that reasoning.

Starting point is 00:56:49 And I think you licensed that and you make a lot of money. So in many ways, instead of becoming more of the pixels that you see, you become more of the bare metal that actually creates that experience. And if you look at the companies that are multi-decade legacy kinds of businesses, the thing that they have done is quietly and surreptitiously move down the stack. You never move up the stack to survive. You need to move down the stack. So if you take that OSI reference stack, these layers, how you build an app from the physical layer to the transport layer all the way up to the app layer, you can map from the 1980s all the big companies

Starting point is 00:57:27 that have been created, right? All the way from Fairchild Semiconductor and Natsemi to Intel, to Cisco, to three com, you know, Oracle, Netscape at one point, all the way up to the Googles and the Facebooks of the world. But if you look at where all the walkin' happened, it's by companies like Apple who used to make software saying, I'm going to get one close, I'm going to make the bare metal and I'm going to become the platform or Google. Same thing, I'm going to create

Starting point is 00:57:55 this dominant platform and I'm going to create a substrate that organizes all this information. That's just omnipresent in everywhere. So the key is if you are lucky enough to be one of these apps that are in front of people, you better start digging quickly and moving your way down and get out of the way and disappear. But by disappearing, you will become much, much bigger and it's impossible to usurp you. Yeah, I 100% agree with you. That's why you're so smart. This is the deep personalization and the algorithms that enable deep personalization, almost like an operating system layer,

Starting point is 00:58:38 so pushing away from the interface and the actual system that does the personalization. I think the challenges there, there's obviously technical challenges, but there's also societal challenges that it's like in a relationship. If you have an intimate algorithmic connection with individual humans, you can do both good and bad, and so there's risks that you're taking. So if you're making a lot of money now as Twitter and Facebook, with ads, surfaced layer ads, what is the incentive

Starting point is 00:59:11 to take the risk of guiding people more? Because you can hurt people, you can piss off people, you can, I mean, there's a cost to forming a more intimate relationship with the users in the short-term, I think. You said a really, really key thing, which is, which was a really great emotional, instinctive reaction, which is when I said the AGI thing, you said, well, how would you ever make money from that? That is the key. The presumption is that this thing would not be an important thing at the beginning.

Starting point is 00:59:45 And I think what that allows you to do, if you were Twitter or Google or Apple or Facebook, anybody, Microsoft embarking on building something like this, is that you can actually have it off the critical path. And you can experiment with this for years if that's what it takes to find a version one that is special enough where it's worth showcasing. And so in many ways, you get the free option. You're going to be spending.

Starting point is 01:00:11 Any of these companies will be spending tens of billions of dollars in op-ex and capex every year and all kinds of stuff. It is not a thing that money actually makes more likely to succeed. In fact, you actually don't need to give these kinds of things a lot of money at all because starting in 2023, right now, you have the two most important tectonic shifts that have ever happened in our lifetime in technology. They're not talked about, but these things allow AGI, I think, to emerge over the next 10 or 15 years, where it wasn't possible for.

Starting point is 01:00:47 The first thing is that the marginal cost of energy is zero. I'm not going to pay for anything anymore, right? And we can double click into why that is. And the second is the marginal cost of compute is zero. And so when you take the multiplication, or if you want to get really fancy mathematically, the convolution of these two things together it's going to change everything so think about what a billion dollars gets today and we can use open AI as an example. A billion dollars gets open AI a handful of functional models and a pretty fast iterative loop.

Starting point is 01:01:23 Right. But imagine what openAI had to overcome. They had to overcome a compute challenge. They had to strip together a whole bunch of GPUs that had to build all kinds of scaffolding software. They had to find data center support. That consumes all kinds of money. So that billion dollars didn't go that far.

Starting point is 01:01:41 So it's a testament to how clever that open AI team is. But in four years from now, when energy cost zero and basically GPUs are like, you know, they're falling off a truck and you can use them for effectively for free, now the sudden billion dollars gives you some amount of tarot flops of compute that is probably the total number of tarot flops available today in the world. Like, that's how gargantuan this move is when you take these two variables to zero. There's like a million things to ask. I almost don't want to get distracted by the marginal cost of energy going to zero because I have no idea what you're talking about that as fast as.

Starting point is 01:02:20 Can I give you the 30-second? Sure. Okay.. So if you look inside of the two most progressive states, the three most progressive states, New York, California, and Massachusetts, a lot of left-leaning folks, a lot of people who believe in climate science and climate change, the energy costs in those three states are the worst they are in the entire country.

Starting point is 01:02:38 And energy is compounding at three to four percent per annum. So every decade to 15 years, energy costs in these states double. In some cases and in some months, our energy costs are increasing by 11% a month. But the ability to actually generate energy is now effectively zero. The cost per kilowatt hour to put a solar panel on your roof and a battery wall inside your garage It's the cheapest it's ever been. These things are the most efficient. They they've ever been and so to acquire energy from the sun and Store it for your use later on. Literally is a zero cost proposition. What's how do you explain the gap between the cost going great question? So this is the other side of regulatory capture, right?

Starting point is 01:03:26 You know, we all fight to build monopolies. While there are monopolies hiding in plain sight, the utilities are a perfect example. There are a hundred million homes in America. There are about 1700 utilities in America. So they have captive markets. But in return for that captive market, the law says need to invest a certain amount per year in upgrading that power line in changing out that turbine in making sure you transition from coal to wind or whatever.

Starting point is 01:03:55 Just as an example, upgrading power lines in the United States over the next decade is a $2 trillion proposition. state. So over the next decade is a $2 trillion proposition. These 1700 organizations have to spend, I think it's a quarter of a trillion dollars a year. Just to change the power lines, that is why even though it costs nothing to make energy, you are paying double every five every seven or eight years. It's CapEx and OpEx of a very brittle, old infrastructure. It's like you trying to build an app and being forced to build your own data center and you say, but wait, I just want to write to AWS. I just want to use GCP. I just want to move on.

Starting point is 01:04:34 All that complexity is solved for me. And some laws says, no, you can't. You got to use it. So that's what consumers are dealing with, but it's also what industrial and manufacturing organizations, it's what we all deal with. So, how do we get rid ourselves of this old infrastructure that we're paying for? The thing that's happening today, which I think is, this is why I think it's the most important trend right now in the world, is that a hundred million homeowners are each

Starting point is 01:05:03 going to become their own little power plant and compete with these 1700 utilities. And that is a great, just deal with the United States for a second because I think it's easier to see here. 100 million homes, solar panel on the roof, and by the way, just to make it clear, the sun doesn't need to shine, right? These panels now work where you have these UV bands that can actually extrapolate beyond the visible spectrum. So they're usable in all weather conditions. And a simple system can support you collecting enough power to not just run your functional day-to-day life, but then to contribute what's left over back into the grid

Starting point is 01:05:42 for Google's data center or Facebook's data center, where you get a small check. The cost is going to zero. How obvious is this to people? You're making a sound. Okay. So because this is a pretty profound prediction, if the cost is, is it going to zero? That I mean, the compute, the cost of compute going to zero, I can.

Starting point is 01:06:04 So the cost of compute going to zero is I can... So the cost of compute going to zero is some kind of understanding, but the energy seems like a radical prediction of yours. Well, it's just, it's just naturally what's happening, right? Now, now, let me, let me give you a different way of explaining this. If you look at any system, there's a really important thing that happens. It's what Clay Christians and calls crossing the chasm. If you explained it numerically, here's how it would explain it to you, Lex. If you introduce a disruptive product, typically what happens is the first three to five percent of people are these zealous

Starting point is 01:06:35 believers. And they ignore all the logical reasons why this product doesn't make any sense. Because they believe in the proposition of the future and they buy it. The problem is at 5%, if you want a product to get to mass market, you have one of two choices, which is you either bring the cost down low enough or the feature set becomes so compelling that even at a high price point.

Starting point is 01:07:01 An example of the latter is the iPhone. The iPhone today, the 14 iPhone, cost more than the original iPhone. It's probably doubled in price over the last 14 or 15 years, but we view it as an essential element of what we need in our daily lives. It turns out that battery EVs and solar panels are an example of the former, because people like President Biden, with all of these subsidies, have now introduced so much money for people to just do this, where it is a money-making proposition for a hundred million homes. And what you're seeing as a result are all of these companies who want to get in front of that trend, why? Because they want to own the relationship

Starting point is 01:07:45 with 100 million homeowners. They want to manage the power infrastructure. Amazon, Home Depot, Lowe's, you know, you just name the company. So if you do that and you control that relationship, they're gonna show you, they're gonna, you know, for example, Amazon will probably say, if you're a member of Prime,

Starting point is 01:08:04 we'll stick the panels on your house for free. We'll do all the work for you for free. And it's just a feature of being a member of prime. And we'll manage all that energy for you. It makes so much sense. And it is mathematically a creative for Amazon to do that. It's not a creative for the existing energy industry because they get blown up. It's extremely creative for peace and prosperity.

Starting point is 01:08:29 If you think the number of wars we fight over natural resources, take them all off the table if we don't need energy from abroad. There's no reason to fight. You'd have to find a reason to fight. Meaning, sorry, there'd be a moral reason to fight. But the last number of wars that we fought were not as much rooted in morality as they were rooted in. Yeah, it feels like they're very much rooted in conflict over resources, energy specifically.

Starting point is 01:08:57 And then sorry, just the last thing I want to say, I keep energy in politics, but the chips, what people want to say is that, you know, now that we're at two and three nanometer scale for typical kind of like transistor fab, we're done. And, you know, forget about transistor density, forget about Moore's lots over. And I would just say, no, look at Terra Flops. And really Terra Flops is the combination of CPUs, but much and much less important. And really is the combination of ASIC, so application-specific ICs and GPUs. And so you put the two together, I mean, if I gave you a billion dollars, five years from now, the amount of damage you could do, damage in a good way, in terms of building racks and racks of GPUs, the kind of models

Starting point is 01:09:41 that you could build, the training sets and the data that you could consume to solve a problem. It's enough to do something really powerful. Whereas today it's not yet quite enough. There's this really interesting idea that you talk about in terms of Facebook and Twitter that's connected to this, that if you were running Twitter or Facebook, you would move them all to like AWS. So you would have somebody else to compute the infrastructure. It probably, if you could explain that reasoning,

Starting point is 01:10:15 means that you believe in this idea of energy going to zero, compute going to zero, so let people that are optimizing that do the best job. And I think that's the, initially in the early 2000s and the beginning of the 2010s, if you were big enough scale, sorry, everybody was building their own stuff. Then between 2010 through 2020, really the idea was everybody should be on AWS except the biggest of the biggest folks.

Starting point is 01:10:46 I think in the 2020s and 30s, I think the answer is actually everybody should be in these public clouds. And the reason is the engineering velocity of the guts. So, take a simple example, which is, we have not seen a massive iteration in database design until snowflake, right? I think maybe Postgres was like the last big turn of the dial.

Starting point is 01:11:10 Why is that? I don't exactly know, except that everybody that's on AWS and everybody that's on GCP and Azure gets to now benefit from a hundred plus billion dollars of aggregate market cap, from a hundred plus billion dollars of aggregate market cap rapidly iterating making mistakes Fixing solving learning and that is a best-in-class industry now, right? Then there's going to be all these AI layers around analytics so that app companies can make better decisions All of these things will allow you to build more nimble organizations because you'll have this federated model of development. I'll take these things off the shelf. Maybe I'll roll my own stitching over here because the thing that where you make money is still for most people and how the apps provision and experience to a user. And everybody else can make a lot of money just servicing that.

Starting point is 01:12:07 So they work in a really, they play well together in the sandbox. So in the future, everybody just should be there. It doesn't make sense for anybody, I don't think, because if you were to roll your own data centers, for example, like Google for a long time, had these massive leaps where they had GFS and Bigtable. Those are really good in the 2000s and 2010s. And this is not just throw shade at Google. It's very hard for whatever exists that is the progeny of GFS and Bigtable to be anywhere near as good as a $100 billion industries

Starting point is 01:12:41 attempt to build that stack. And you're putting your organization under enormous pressure to be that good. I guess the implied risk taken there is that you could become the next AWS, like Tesla doing some of the compute in-house. I guess the bet there is that you can become the next, the next AWS for the new wave of computation if that level, if that kind of computation is different. So if it's machine learning, I don't know if anyone's one that battle yet, which is machine learning centric well, I think that software has a very powerful property in

Starting point is 01:13:22 that there's a lot of things that can happen asynchronous, asynchronously, so that real-time inference can be actually really lightweight code deployment. And that's why I think you can have a very federated ecosystem inside of all of these places. Tesla is very different because in order to build the best car, it's kind of like trying to build the best iPhone, which is that you need to control it all the way down to the bare metal in order to do it well. And that's just not possible if you're trying to be a systems integrator, which is what everybody other than this modern generation of car companies have been.

Starting point is 01:14:00 And they've done a very good job of that, but it won't be the experience that allows you to win in the next 20 years. So, let's linger on this social media thing. So, if you said if you ran Facebook for a day, let's extend that. If you were to build a new social network today, how would you fix Twitter, how would you fix social media? If you want to answer a different question, is if you were Elon Musk, somebody you know and you were taking over Twitter, what would you fix? I've thought about this a little bit.

Starting point is 01:14:39 First of all, let me give you a backdrop. I wouldn't actually build a social media company at all. And the answer is the reasoning is the following. I really tend to believe, as you probably got in a sense of sort of patterns and probabilities. And if you said to me, Chimath, probabilistically answer, where, where are we going in apps and social experiences, what I would say is Lex, we spent the first decade building platforms and getting them to scale. And if you want to think about it again back to sort of this poker analogy, others mistakes minus your mistakes is the value. While the value that was captured

Starting point is 01:15:19 was trillions of dollars, essentially to Apple and to Google. And they did that by basically attracting billions of monthly active users to their platform. Then this next way were the apps, Facebook, QQ, Tencent, TikTok, Twitter, Snapchat, that whole panoply of apps. And interestingly, they were in many ways an atomized version of the platforms, right? They sat on top of them,

Starting point is 01:15:51 they were an ecosystem participant, but the value they created was the same. Trillions of dollars of enterprise value, billions of monthly active users. Well, there's an interesting phenomenon that's kind of hiding in plain sight, which is that the next most obvious atomic unit are content creators. Now, let me give you two examples. Lex Friedman, this brand and crazy guy, Mr. Beast, Jimmy Donaldson, just the two of you

Starting point is 01:16:22 alone added up. And you guys are going to approach in the next five years, a billion people. The only thing that you guys haven't figured out yet is how to capture trillions of dollars of value. Now, maybe you don't want to and maybe that's not your state admission. Right, right. But that's just a look at Mr. Beast alone because he is trying to do exactly that probably. Yeah, and I think Jimmy is going to build an enormous business. But if you take Jimmy and all of the other content creators, right, you guys are atomizing what the apps have done. You're providing your own curated news feeds. You're providing your own curated communities. You're allowed, you let people move in and out of these things in a very lightweight way and value is accruing to you. So

Starting point is 01:17:04 the honest answer to your question is I would focus on the content creator side of things because I believe that's where the puck is going. That's a much more important shift in how we all consume information and content and are entertained. It's through brands like you, individual people that we can humanize and understand

Starting point is 01:17:22 are the filter. But aren't you just arguing against the point you made earlier, which is what you would recommend is the invest in the AGI, the deep personalization? Because they could still be a participant. In that end state, if that happens, you have the option value of being an enable of that. You can help improve what they do. Again, you can be this bare metal service provider where you can be attacks, right? You can participate in everything that you do, every question that's asked, every comment that's curated. If you could have more intelligence as you

Starting point is 01:17:59 provide a service to your fans and your audience, you would probably pay a small percentage of that revenue. I suspect all content creators would. And so it's that stack of services that is like a smart human being. It's like, you know, how do you help produce this information? You would pay a producer for that. I mean, maybe you would. But so back to your question. So what would I do? I think that you have to move into that world pretty aggressively.

Starting point is 01:18:24 I think that right now you first have to solve what is broken inside of these social networks. And I don't think it's a technical problem. So just to put it out there, I don't think it's one where there are these nefarious organizations. That happens. We're gating xyz. That happens. But the real problem is a psychological one that we're dealing with, which is people through a whole set of situations have lost belief in themselves. And I think that that comes up as this very virulent form of rejection that they tried to put into these social networks. So if you look inside a comments on anything, like you could have a, like you could have

Starting point is 01:19:14 a person that says on Twitter, I saved this dog from a fiery building. And there would be negative commenters. And you're like, well, again, put yourself in their shoes. How do I steal man their case? I do this all the time. You know, I get people throw shade at me. I'm like, okay, let me steal man their point of view. And the best that I can come up with is, you know, I'm working really hard over here.

Starting point is 01:19:38 I'm trying. I played by all the rules that were told to me. I've played well. I've played fairly. And I am not being rewarded in a system of value that you recognize. And that is making me mad. And now I need to cope and I need to vent.

Starting point is 01:19:55 So back in the day, my dad used to drink, he would make me go get things to hit me with. Today, you go to Twitter, you spot off, you try to deal with the latent anger that you feel. So a social network has to be designed, in my opinion, to solve that psychological corner case because it is what makes a network unusable. To get real density, you have to find a way of moving away from that toxicity because it ruins a product experience. You could have the best pixels in the world, but if people are virulently spitting into their keyboards, other people are just going to

Starting point is 01:20:31 say, you know what, I'm done with this. It doesn't make me feel good. So the social network has to have a social cost. You can do it in a couple of ways. One is where you have real world identity. So then there's a cost to being virulent. And there's a cost to being caustic. A second way is to actually just overlay an economic framework so that there's a more pertinent economic value that you assign to basically spouting off. And the more you want to spend, the more you can say. And I think both have a lot of value.

Starting point is 01:21:02 I don't know what the right answer is. I tend to like the latter. I think both have a lot of value. I don't know what the right answer is. I tend to like the latter. I think real-world identity shuts down a lot of debate because there's still too much, you know, there's a sensation that there'll be some retribution. So I think there's more free speech over there, but it cannot be costless because in that there's a level of toxicity that just makes these products unusable. A third option. And by the way, all these can work together. If we look at this, what you

Starting point is 01:21:34 call the corner case, which is hilarious, what I with the challenges of life. And what about having an algorithm that shows you what you see that's personalized to you and helps you maximize your personal growth in the long term such that you're challenging yourself, you're improving, you're learning, there's just enough of criticism to keep you on your toes, but just enough of like the dopamine rush to keep you entertained and finding that balance for each individual person. You just described an AGI of a very empathetic wall-rounded friend. Yes, exactly. And then you can throw that person even anonymous into a pool of discourse.

Starting point is 01:22:34 100%. And they would be better. I think you're absolutely right. That's a very, very, very elegant way of stating it. You're absolutely right. But like you said, the AGI might be a few years away, so that's a huge investment. My concern, my gut feeling is this thing we're calling AGI is actually not that difficult to build technically, but it requires a certain culture and it requires certain risks to

Starting point is 01:23:00 be taken. I think you could reductively boil down the human intellect into cognition and emotion. And depending on who you are, depending on the moment, they're weighted very differently, obviously. Cognition is so easily done by computers that we should assume that that's a solved problem. So our differentiation is the reasoning part. It's the emotional overlay.

Starting point is 01:23:27 It's that it's the empathy. It's the ability to steal man, the opposite person's case and feel why that person, you know, you can forgive them without excusing what they did as an example. That is a very difficult thing, I think, to capture in software. But I think it's a matter of when, not if. If done crudely, it takes a form of censorship, just banning people off the platform. Totally.

Starting point is 01:23:57 Let me ask you some tricky questions. Do you think Trump should have been removed from Twitter? What's the, what's the pro case? Can you, I'm having fun here. Still man. Do you still man each side? Yeah. Let's deal man to get him off the platform.

Starting point is 01:24:17 Here we have a guy who is virulent in all ways. He promotes confrontation. He lacks decorum. He incites the fervent believers of his cause to act up and push the boundaries bordering on and potentially even including breaking the law. He does not observe the social norms of a society that keep us while functioning, including an orderly transition of power. If he is left in a moment where he feels trapped

Starting point is 01:24:53 and cornered, he could behave in ways that will confuse the people that believe in him, to act in ways that they so regret that it could bring our democracy to an end or create so much damage or create a wound that's so deep, it will take years of conflict and years of confrontation to heal it. We need to remove him and we need to do it now. It's been too long. We've let it go on too long. The other side of the argument would be

Starting point is 01:25:26 he was a duly elected person whose views have been run over for way too long. And he uses the ability to say extreme things in order to showcase how corrupt these systems have become and how insular these organizations are in protecting their own class. And so if you really want to prevent class warfare, and if you really want to keep the American dream alive for everybody, we need to show that the first amendment, the constitution, the second amendment, all of this infrastructure is actually bigger than any part of the view, no matter how bad it is, and that people will make their own decisions. And there are a lot of people that can see past the words he uses and focus on the substance

Starting point is 01:26:20 of what he's trying to get across and more generally agree than disagree. And so when you silence that voice, what you're effectively saying is this is a rigged game. And all of those things that we've told, we were told we're not true or actually true. If you were to look at the crude algorithms of Twitter, of course, I don't have any insider knowledge, but I could imagine that they saw the, let's say there's a metric that measures how negative the experience is of the platform. And they probably saw in several ways. You could look at this, but the presence of Donald Trump on the platform was consistently increasing how shady people are feeling, short term and long term,

Starting point is 01:27:06 because they're probably yelling at each other, having worse and worse and worse experience. If you even do a survey of how do you feel about using this platform over the last week, they would say horrible relative to maybe a year ago when Donald Trump was not actively tweeting or so on. So here you're sitting at Twitter and saying, okay, I know everyone's talking about speech and all that kind of stuff, but I kind of want to build a platform

Starting point is 01:27:32 where the users are happy. And they're becoming more and more unhappy. How do I solve this happiness problem? Well, let's ban, let's, yeah, let's ban the sources of the unhappiness. Now, we can't just say your source of unhappiness will ban you. Let's wait until that source say something that we can claim breaks our rules, like insights, violences, so on.

Starting point is 01:28:00 That would work if you could measure your constructive happiness properly. The problem is, I think, what Twitter looked at were active commenters and got it confused for overall system happiness. Because for every piece of content that's created on the internet, of the hundred people that consume it, maybe one or two people comment on it. And so by over amplifying that signal and assuming that it was the plurality of people, that's where they actually made a huge blunder. Because there was no scientific method, I think, to get to the answer of deplatforming him. And it did expose this idea that it's a bit of a rigged game and that there are these deep biases

Starting point is 01:28:40 that some of these organizations have to opinions that are counter to theirs and to their orthodox view of the world. So in general, you lean towards keeping, first of all, presidents on the platform, but also controversial voices all the time. I think it's really important to keep them there. Let me ask you a tricky one in in the recent news. Let's become especially relevant. For me, what do you think about if you've been paid attention to yay Kanye West. A recent controversial outburst on social media. About.

Starting point is 01:29:19 And. Jews. Black people. Racism general. and Jews, Black people, racism, general, slavery, Holocaust, all these topics that he touched on in different ways on different platforms, but including Twitter. What do you do with that? And like, what do you do? What do you do with that from a platform perspective? What do you do from a humanity perspective of how to add love to the world?

Starting point is 01:29:49 Let's, should we take both sides of them? Sure. Option one is he is completely out of line. And option two is he's not just a semi-final. Sure. Right. So the path one is, he is an incredibly important tastemaker in the world that defines the belief system for a lot of people.

Starting point is 01:30:14 And there just is no room for any form of racism or bias or anti-semitism in today's day and age, particularly by people whose words and comments will be amplified around the world. We've already paid a large price for that, and then the expectation of success is some amount of societal decorum that keeps moving the ball forward. The other side would say, The other side would say, life, I think, goes from harmony to disharmony to repair. And anybody who has gone through a very complicated divorce will tell you that in that moment, your life is extremely disharmonious and you are struggling to cope. And because he is famous, we are seeing a person really struggling in a moment that may need help.

Starting point is 01:31:14 And we owe it to him, not for what he said, because that stuff isn't excusable, but we owe it to him to help him in a way, and particularly his friends. And if he has real friends, hopefully what they see is that. What I see on the outside looking in is a person that is clearly struggling. Can I ask you like a human question?

Starting point is 01:31:40 And I know it's outside looking in, but there's several questions I want to ask. So one is about the pain of going through a divorce and having kids and all that kind of stuff. And two, when you're rich and powerful and famous, I don't know, maybe you can enlighten me to which is the most corruptive, but how do you know who are the friends to trust? So a lot of the world is calling Kanye insane, if Orlick has mental illness, all that kind of stuff. And so how do you have friends close to you that say, that say something like that message, but from a place of love and where they actually care for you as opposed to trying to get you to shut up. The reason I ask all those questions, I think, if you care about the guy, how do you help

Starting point is 01:32:36 him? Right. I've been through a divorce. It's gut-wrenching. The most horrible part is having to tell your kids. I can't even describe it to you. How proud I am and how resilient these three beautiful little creatures were when my ex-wife and I had to sit them down and talk through it. And for that thing, I'll be this so protective of them and so proud of them. And it's hard.

Starting point is 01:33:09 Now, I don't know that that's what he went through, but it doesn't matter. In that moment, there's no fame, there's no money, there's nothing. There's just the raw intimacy of a nuclear family breaking up. And that there is a death. And it's the death of that idea. And that is extremely is a death. And it's the death of that idea. And that is extremely, extremely profound in its impact, especially in your children. It is really hard, really hard.

Starting point is 01:33:35 Could you have seen yourself in the way you see the world being clouded, especially at first, to where you would make poor decisions outside of that nuclear family. So like, poor business decisions, poor tweeting decisions, poor writing decisions. If I had to boil down a lot of those, what I would say is that there are moments in my life like where I have felt meaningfully less than.

Starting point is 01:34:06 And in those moments, the loop that I would fall into is I would look to cope and be seen by other people so I would throw away all of the work I was doing around my own internal validation and I would try to say something or do something that would get the attention of others. And oftentimes, you know, when that loop was, um, was on productive, it's because those things had really crappy consequences. So, you know, that was, that was, yeah, so yeah, I went through that as well. So I had to go through, you know, this disharmonious phase in my life and then to repair it. You know, I had the benefit of meeting someone and building a relationship block by block where there was just enormous accountability

Starting point is 01:34:56 where my partner not had has just incredible empathy, but accountability. And so she can put herself in my shoes, sometimes when I'm a really tough person to be around, but then she doesn't let me off the hook. She can forgive me, but it doesn't make, what I may have said or whatever, excusable. And that's been really healthy for me and it's helped me repair my relationships.

Starting point is 01:35:25 Be a better parent, you know, be a better friend to my ex-wife who's a beautiful woman who, you know, I love deeply and will always love her. And it took me a few years to see that. That it was just a chapter that had come to an end, but she's an incredible mother and an incredible business woman. And I'm so thankful that I've had two incredible women in my life. That's like a blessing. To put it, it's hard. So with that, it's hard to find a person that has that, I mean, a lot of stuff, you said, it's pretty profound. But having that person who has empathy and accountability.

Starting point is 01:35:59 So basically, that's ultimately what great friendship is, which is people that love you have empathy for you, but can also call you out in your bullshit. She's a LeBron James-like figure. And the reason I say that is I've seen and met so many people, I've seen the distribution on the scale of friendship and empathy. She's the LeBron James of friendship. She's a goat. Well, what's so funny is like, you know, we have a dinner around poker and it's taken on a life of its own, mostly because of her,

Starting point is 01:36:32 because these guys looked to her. And I'm like, whoa, whoa, whoa. She's taking like, her registers are already full. She's thinking all kinds of crap with me. But it's a very innate skill. And it's paired with, you know, it's, but it's not just an emotional thing. Meaning, she's the person that I make all my decisions with. These decisions we're making together as a team. I've never understood that. You know, there's that African proverb, like, go fast, go alone, go far go together. And Lex, since since I was born, I was by myself and I had to cope. And I

Starting point is 01:37:12 didn't have a good toolkit to use into the world. And in these last five or six years, she's helped me. And at first, my toolkit was literally like sticks, you know, and then I found a way to, you know, she helped me sharpen a little rock and that became a little knife, but even that was crap. And then she showed me fire and then I forged a knife and that, and that's what it feels like. We're now this toolkit is like most average people. And I feel humble to be average because I was here, down here on the ground. So it's made all these things more reasonable. So I see what comes from having deep profound friendships

Starting point is 01:37:52 and love to help you through these critical moments. I have another friend who I would say just completely unabashedly loves me, this guy Rob Goldberg. He doesn't hold me accountable that much, which I love like I could say I killed a homeless person He's like bad they probably deserve you know, whereas now would be like that was not good. What you just did so But I have both I mean I have Nat every day, you know, Rob I don't talk to that often but to have two people I had zero. I think most people unfortunately have zero. So I think like what he needs is

Starting point is 01:38:31 somebody to just listen. You don't have to put a label on these things. And you just have to try to guide in these very unique moments where you can just like deescalate. where you can just like deescalate what is going on in your mind and I suspect what's going on in his mind, again, to play armchair quarterback. I don't know, is that he is in a moment where he just feels lower than low. And we all do it. We've all had these moments where we don't know how to get attention. And if you didn't grow up in a healthy environment, you may go through a negative way to get attention. And if you didn't grow up in a healthy environment, you may go

Starting point is 01:39:05 through a negative way to get attention. And it's not to excuse it, but it's to understand it. That's so profound, the feeling less than and at those low points, going externally to find it, and maybe creating conflict and scandal to get that attention. The way that my doctor explained it to me is you have to think about yourself worth like a knot. It's inside of a very complicated set of knots. So it's like a, some people don't have these knots. It's just presented to you on a platter. But for some of us, because of the way we grow up,

Starting point is 01:39:50 it's covered in all these knots. So the whole goal is to loosen those knots and it happens slowly, it happens unpredictably and it takes a long time. And so while you're doing that, you are gonna have moments where when you feel doing that, you are going to have moments where when you feel less than, you're not prepared to look inside and say, actually, here's how I feel about myself.

Starting point is 01:40:10 It's pretty cool. I'm happy with how I'm aware I'm at. I have to ask on the topic of friendship, you do an amazing podcast called All-In Podcasts. People should stop listening to this and go listen to that. You just did your hundredth episode. I mean, it's one of my favorite podcasts. It's incredible. For the the the technical and the human psychological wisdom that you guys constantly give and in the way you analyze the world, but also just the chemistry between

Starting point is 01:40:45 the between you. You're clearly there's there's a tension and there's a camaraderie that's all laid out on the on the table. So I don't know the two Davids that well, but I have met Jason. What do you love about him? I mean, I'll give you a little psychological breakdown of all three of these guys. Sure. Um, just my opinion. Yeah.

Starting point is 01:41:07 And I love you guys. Um, would they agree with your psychological breakdown? I don't know. You know, I think that what I would say about Jay Kal is he is unbelievably loyal, um, to no end. And, you know, he's like any of those movies where, which are about like the Mafia or whatever, where like, you know, something bad's going wrong and you need somebody to show up, that's J-Count. So if you killed the said proverbial, almost person, he would be right there to help you.

Starting point is 01:41:41 He'd be hit the body. But he's the one that he'll defend you in every way, shape, or form, even if it's not, doesn't make sense in that moment. He doesn't see that as an action of whether it'll solve the problem. He sees that as an act of devotion to you, your friend. And that's an incredible gift that he gives us. The other side of it is that, you know, J. Cal needs to learn how to trust that other people love him back as much as he loves us.

Starting point is 01:42:09 And that's where he makes mistakes because he assumes that he's not as lovable as the rest of us, but he's infinitely more lovable than he understands. He's, I mean, you have to see Lex, like he is unbelievably funny. I mean, I cannot tell you how funny this guy is. Next level funny. It has timing, everything, charm, the care he takes. So he is as levelable, but he doesn't believe himself to be, and that manifests itself in areas that drive us all crazy from time to time. Which makes it for a very pleasant listening experience. Okay, so what about the two David's, David Sacks and David Friedberg?

Starting point is 01:42:47 David Sacks is the one that I would say I have the most emotional connection with. He and I can go a year without talking and then we'll talk for four hours straight and then we know where we are and we have this ability to pick up and have a level of intimacy with each other. And I think that's just because I've known David

Starting point is 01:43:05 for so long now, that's, I find really comforting. And then Freeberg is this person who, I think similar to me, had a very turbulent upbringing, has fought through it to build an incredible life for himself. And I have this enormous respect for his journey. I don't particularly care about his outcomes, to be honest, but I just have, I look at that guy and I think, and he did it.

Starting point is 01:43:31 And so if I didn't do it, I would be glad that he did it, if it makes any sense. And you can see that he feels like his entire responsibility is really around his kids and to kind of like give a better counterfactual. And you know, sometimes I think he gets that right and wrong, but he's a very special human being. On that show, the two of you have a very kind of, like from a geopolitics perspective, I don't know, there's just a very

Starting point is 01:44:12 effective way to think deeply about the world, the big picture of the world. He's a very systems level thinker, which I really like. That's the way I put it. Yeah. Very, very absolutely. Very systems level. So looking at everything. And he's very rooted in you know a broad

Starting point is 01:44:27 body of knowledge which I have a tremendous respect for he brings all these things in sacks is incredible because he has this unbelievable understanding of things but it has a core nucleus so freebrook can just basically abstract a whole bunch of systems and talk about it I tend to be more like that where I try to kind of, I find it to be more of a puzzle. Sox is more like anchored in, you know, a philosophical and historical context as the answer. And he starts there, but he gets to these profound understandings of systems as well. On the podcast in life, you guys hold to your opinion pretty strong. What's the secret to being able to argue passionately with friends? So hold your position, but also not murder each other,

Starting point is 01:45:15 which you guys seem to come close to. I think it's like strong opinions weekly held. opinions weekly held. So I think that's the way that is that high cool or is it can explain that please like you know, like look today you and I yeah, what are we we steel man like the two sides of three different things. Yeah. Now you could be confused and think I believe in those things. I believe that it's important to be able to intellectually traverse there, whether I believe in it or not, and like steel men, not straight men. That's a really. But we intro those things by saying, let us steel men in this position. Sometimes you guys skip the

Starting point is 01:45:55 we skip. You're right. We edit those things out and sometimes we'll sit on either sides and we'll just kind of bat things back and forth just to see what the other person thinks. of bad things back and forth just to see what the other person thinks. So that's how, like, as fans, we should listen to that sometimes. So sometimes because you hold a strong opinion sometimes, like, for example, the cost of energy going to zero is that, like, what's the degree of certainty on that? Is this kind of like you really taking a prediction of how the world will unroll, and if it does, this will benefit a huge amount of companies and people that will believe that idea. So you really, you spend a few days, a few weeks with that

Starting point is 01:46:40 idea. I've been spending two years with that idea and that idea has manifested into many pages and pages of more and more branches of a tree, but it started with that idea. So if you think about this tree, this logical tree that I built, I would consider it more of a mosaic and that at the base of root, however you want to talk about it, is this idea, the incremental cost of energy goes to zero. How does it manifest? And so I talked about one traversal, which is the competition of households versus utilities.

Starting point is 01:47:15 But even some of that comes to pass. We're going to see a bunch of other implications from a regulatory and technology perspective. If some of those come to pass, so I've tried to think, think, sort of this, you know, six, seven, eight hops forward. And I have some, like, to use a chest analogy, I have a bunch of short lines, which I think can work. And I've started to test those by making investments. Tens of millions over here, to 100 millions over there, but it's a distribution based on how probabilistic I think these outcomes are and how downside protected I can be and how much I will learn, how many mistakes I can make, et cetera.

Starting point is 01:47:57 And then very quickly over the next two years, some of those things will happen or not happen and I will rapidly reunderwrite. And I'll rewrite that tree. And then I'll get some more data. I'll make some more investments. And I'll rapidly reunderwrite. So, in order for me to get to this tree, maybe you can ask, how did I get there?

Starting point is 01:48:16 It was complete accident. The way that it happened was I have a friend of mine who works at a great organization called Fortress. His name is Drew McNite, and he called me one day and he said, Hey, I'm doing the deal. Will you anchor it? We're going public and it's a rare earth mining company. And I said, Drew, like if I'm going to get tired and feathered in Silicon Valley for backing a mining company. And he said, Jimoth, just talk to the guy and learn. And the guy Jim Littinsky blew me away. He's like, here's what it means for energy. And here's what it means for the supply chain. Here's what it means for the United States or his China.

Starting point is 01:48:50 But Laks, I did that deal and then it did seven others. And that deal made money. The seven others did not. But I learned, I made enough mistakes where the net of it was, I got to a thesis that I believed in, I could see it. And I was like, okay, I paid the price, I acquired the learning, I made my mistakes, I know where I am at, and this is step one. And then I learned a little bit more, I made some more investments. And that's how I do the job.

Starting point is 01:49:18 It's the minute that you try to wait for perfection in order to make a bet, either on yourself or a company, a girlfriend, whatever, it's too late. So if we just linger on that tree, it seems like a lot of geopolitics, a lot of international military even conflict is around energy. So how does your thinking about energy connect to what you see happening in the next 10, 20 years? Maybe you can look at the war in Ukraine or relationship with China and other places through the lens of energy. What's the hopeful? What's the

Starting point is 01:49:57 cynical trajectory that the world might take with this drive towards zero energy, zero cost energy? So the United States was in a period of energy surplus until the last few years. Some number of years in Trump, and I think some number now the current administration with President Biden. But we know what it means to basically have more than enough energy to fund our own domestic manufacturing and living standards. And I think that by being able to generate this energy from the sun, that is very cap

Starting point is 01:50:31 ex-efficient, that is very climate efficient, gives us a huge tailwind. The second thing is that we are now in a world, in a regime, for many years to come of non-zero interest rates. And it may interest you to know that the really the last time that we had long dated wars supported at low interest rates was World War II, where I think the average interest rate was like 1.07% in the tenure. And every other war tends to have these very quick open and closes because these long protracted fights get very difficult to finance when rates are non-zero.

Starting point is 01:51:15 So just as an example, even starting in 2023, so the practical example today in the United States is President Biden's budget is about 1.5 trillion. For next year, that's not including the entitlement spending, okay, meaning Medicare or Social Security, right? So the stuff that he wants to spend that he has discretion over is about 1.582 trillion is the exact number. Next year, our interest payments are going to be $455 billion. That's 29% of every budget dollar is going to pay interest. So you have these

Starting point is 01:51:48 two worlds coming together, right, Lex? If you have us, you know, hurtling forward to being able to generate our own energy and the economic peril that comes with trying to underwrite several trillion dollars for war, which we can't afford to pay when rates are at 5%. Means that, despite all the bluster, the probabilistic distribution of us engaging in war with Russia and Ukraine seems relatively low. The override would obviously be a moral reason to do it. That may or may not come if there's some nuclear proliferation. But now you have to steal man the other side of the equation, which is,

Starting point is 01:52:32 well, what were to happen if you were sitting there and you were put in let's steal man setting off a tactical nuke someplace. Okay, I'm getting calls every other day from my two largest energy buyers, India and China, telling me, slow my role. I have the entire world looking to find the final excuse to turn me off and unplug me from the entire world economy. The only morally reprehensible thing that's left in my arsenal that could do all of these things together would be to set off attack nuke. I would be the only person since World War II to have done that. I mean, you know, it seems like it's a really, really, really big step to take. And so I think that ex of the clamoring for war, that the military industrial complex

Starting point is 01:53:27 wants us to buy into, the financial reasons to do it and the natural resources needs to do it are making it very unlikely. That is not just true for us. I think it's also true for Europe. I think the European economy is going to roll over. I think it's also true for Europe. I think the European economy is going to roll over. I think it's going, I see a very hard landing for them, which means that if the economy slows down, there's going to be less need for energy. And so it starts to become a thing where a negotiated settlement is actually the win-win for everybody. But none of this would be possible without zero interest rates. In a world of zero interest rates, we would be in war. So, you believe in the financial forces and pressures overpowering the human ones?

Starting point is 01:54:20 I really do believe in the even in international war. More so there. I think the invisible hand, and by the invisible hand for the audience, I think really what it means is the financial complex and really the central bank complex and the interplay between fiscal and monetary policy is a very convoluted and complicated set of things. But if we had zero interest rates, we would be probably in the middle of it now. See, there's a complexity to this game at the international level where the nation, some nations are authoritarian and are there's significant corruption. And so that adds from a game theoretic optimal perspective,

Starting point is 01:55:10 you know, the invisible hand is operating in the mud. Preventing war. The person that is the most important figure in the world right now is Jerome Powell. He is probably doing more to prevent war than anybody else. He keeps ratjuting rates. It's just impossible. It's a mathematical impossibility for the United States. Unless there is such a cataclysmic moral transgression by Russia. So there is tail risk that it is possible. Where we say, forget it, all bets are off. We're going back to zero rates, issue a

Starting point is 01:55:39 hundred-year bond. We're going to finance a war machine. There is a small risk of that. But I think the propensity of the majority of outcomes is more of a negotiated settlement. So, what about, I mean, if you, what's the motivation of putting to invade Ukraine in the first place? If financial forces are the most, the most powerful forces, why did it happen? Because it seems like there's other forces at play of maintaining superpower status on the world stage. Yeah. It seems like geopolitics doesn't happen just with the invisible hand in consideration. I agree with that. I can't back to know, to be honest. I don't know. But he did it. And I think it's easier for me to guess the outcome from here. It would have been impossible for me to really understand. It is what got him to this place. But it seems like there's an end

Starting point is 01:56:38 game here and there's not much playability. Yeah. I feel like I'm on a sturdy ground because there's been so many experts at every stage of this that have been wrong. Well, there are no experts. Well, on this, there are no experts, Lex. I understand this. Well, let's dig into that because we just said Phil Helmuth Phil Helmius is the is the greatest vocal player of all time. He has an opinion. Yeah.

Starting point is 01:57:09 He doesn't he's still I would be mistaken. I poker. Phil has an opinion. Ivy has an opinion as well on how to play all these games. Meaning an opinion means here's the lines I take, here are the decisions I make. I live and die by those and if I'm right, I win, if I'm wrong, I lose. I've made more mistakes than my opponent. I thought you said there's an optimal.

Starting point is 01:57:31 So aren't there people that have a deeper understand, a higher likelihood of being able to describe and know the optimal, the optimal set of actions here at every layer? Well, they're, they're, they're there by being a theoretically set of optimal decisions, but you can't play your life against the computer, like meaning the minute that you face an opponent and that person takes you off that optimal path, you have to adjust. Like what happens if a tactical nuke? It would be really bad.

Starting point is 01:58:05 I think the world is resilient enough. Like what happens if a tactical nuke? It would be really bad I think the world is resilient enough. I think the Ukrainians are resilient enough to overcome it It would be really bad. It's just that it's an incredibly sad moment in human history But do you wonder what you ask does? Is there any understanding? Do you think people inside the United States? Understand not not the regular citizens, but people in the military? Do you think Joe Biden understands? Do you think Joe Biden does understand? I think that they have a clear plan.

Starting point is 01:58:33 I think that there are a few reasons to let the Jaren-Takrasi rule, but this is one of the reasons where I think they are better adept than other people. Folks that were around during the Bay of Pigs, folks that hopefully have studied that and studied nuclear deescalation, will have a better playbook than I do. My suspicion is that there is an in an emergency brake glass plan. And I think before military intervention or anything else, I think that there are an enormous number of financial sanctions that you can do to just completely cripple Russia that they haven't undertaken yet. And if you couple that with an economic system in Europe that is less and less in need

Starting point is 01:59:25 of energy, because it is going into a recession, it makes it easier for them to be able to walk away while the US ships a bunch of, you know, LNG over there. So I don't know the game theory on all of this, but does it make you nervous that or we're just being temperamental? It feels like the world hangs in a balance. Like it feels like at least for my naive perspective, I thought we were getting to a place where surely human civilization can't destroy itself. And here's a presentation of what looks like a hot war where multiple parties involved in escalating escalation towards a world war is not entirely out of

Starting point is 02:00:11 the realm of possibility. It's not. I would really, really hope that he is spending time with his two young twins. Well, this is part of what I really, I really hope he's spending time with his kids. Agreed, but not kids, not just kids, but friends and the, the, the, I'm not sure that he may not have friends, but it's very hard for anybody to look at their kids and not think about protecting the future. Very hard for anybody to look at their kids and not think about protecting the future. Well, there's partially because of the pandemic, but partially because of the nature of power, it feels like you're surrounded by people who you can't trust more and more. I do think the pandemic had a effect on that too, the isolating effect. Yeah.

Starting point is 02:01:01 A lot of people were not their best selves during the pandemic. From a super heavy topic. Let me go back to The space where you're one of the most successful people in the world How to build companies how to find good companies what it takes To find good companies where it takes to build good companies what advice do you have for someone who wants to build the next Super successful start-up in the tech space and you know have a chance to be impactful like Facebook, Apple? That's I think that's the key word. If your precondition is to start something successful you've already failed because you're now you're playing somebody else's game. What success means is not clear.

Starting point is 02:01:41 You're walking into the woods. It's murky, it's dark, it's wet, it's raining, there's all these animals about, there's no comfort there. So you better really like hiking. And there's no short way to shortcut that. So isn't it obvious what success is? Like success is scale. So it's not what it is.

Starting point is 02:02:05 No, I think that there is a very brutal basic definition of success that's outside in. But it's not that's not what it is. You know, I know people that are much, much, much richer than I am, you know, and they are just so completely broken. And I think to myself, the only difference between you and me is outsider's perception of your wealth versus mine. But the happiness and the joy that I have in the simple basic routines of my life, give me enormous joy. And so I feel successful, no matter what anybody says about my success or lack of success, there are people that live normal lives that have good jobs, that have good families. You know, I have this like, I deal like sense. Like, I see it on TikTok all the time.

Starting point is 02:03:06 So I know it exists. These neighborhoods where there's like a cul-de-sac and these beautiful homes and these kids are biking around. And every time I see that, I immediately flashback to what I didn't have. And I think that's success. Look at how happy those kids are. So no, there is no one definition.

Starting point is 02:03:26 And so if people are starting out to try to make a million dollars, a hundred million dollars, a billion dollars, you're going to fail. There's a definition of personal success, but is there's also some level of, that's different from person to person, but there's also some level of There's different from person person, but there's also some level of the Responsibility you have if there's a mission to have a positive impact on the world So I'm not sure that Elon is happy. No In fact, I think if you focus on trying to have an impact on the world I think you're gonna end up deeply unhappy. What does that matter?

Starting point is 02:04:01 Like why it may happen it may happen happen, it may happen as a byproduct, but I think that you should strive to find your own personal happiness and then measure how that manifests as it relates to society and to other people, but if the answer to those questions is zero, that doesn't make you less of a person. No, 100 percent, but then the other way is way is there times when you just sacrifice your own personal happiness for a bigger thing that you've created. Yeah. If you're in a position to do it, I think some folks are tested.

Starting point is 02:04:36 Elon is probably the best example. And it must be really, really hard to be him. Really hard. I have enormous levels of empathy and care for him. I really love him as a person because I just see that it's not that fun. And he has these ways of being human that in his position, I just think are so dear that if he never, I just hope he never loses them. Just a simple example, like two days ago, I don't know why, but I went on Twitter

Starting point is 02:05:16 and I saw the perfume thing. So I'm like, oh, fuck it, I'm just gonna go buy some perfume. So I bought his perfume, the burnt hair thing. Yeah. And I said, and I emailed him the receipt, and I'm like, all right, you got me for a bottle. And he responded in like eight seconds, and it was just a smiley face or whatever.

Starting point is 02:05:33 Just deeply normal things that you do amongst people that are just, so nobody sees that. You know what I mean? But it would be, he deserves for that stuff to be seen because the rest of his life is so brutally hard He's just a normal guy that is just caught in this Altra mega vortex Why do you think there's so few Elon's?

Starting point is 02:05:57 It's an extremely Lonely set of trade-offs Because to your point if you get tested lonely set of trade-offs. Because to your point, if you get tested, so if you think about it again, probably, realistically, there's 8 billion people in the world, maybe 50 of them get put in a position where they are building something of such colossal importance

Starting point is 02:06:16 that they even have this choice. And then of that 50, maybe 10 of them are put in a moment where they actually have to make a trade-off. You're not going to be able to see your family. I'm making this up. You're not going to be able to see your family. You're going to have to basically move into your factory. You're going to have to sleep on the floor. But here's the outcome, energy independence and resource abundance and massive peace dividend. And then he says to himself, I don't know if that he did because I've never had this company. Yeah, you know what, that's worth it. And like, and like,

Starting point is 02:06:50 you look at your kids and you're like, I'm making this decision. I don't know how to explain that to you. Yeah. You want to be in that position? There's no, there's no amount of money where I would want to be in that position. So that takes an enormous fortitude and a moral compass that he has. And that's what I think people need to need to appreciate about that guy. It's also on the first number. He said it's confusing that there's 50 people or 10 people Like that are put in the position to have that level of impact. It's unclear that that has to be that way. It seems like There could be much more. There should be, there's definitely people with the potential.

Starting point is 02:07:27 But think about his journey. His mom had to leave a very complicated environment, move to Canada, move to Toronto, a small apartment, just north of Bain Bluor, if you've ever been to Toronto. I remember talking to her about this apartment, it's so crazy because I used to live around the corner from that place and raise these three kids and just have to so how many people are going to start with those boundary conditions, you know, and really grind it out. It's just very few people in the end that will have the resiliency to stick it through where We'll have the resiliency to stick it through where you don't give into the self-doubt. So, it's just a really hard set of boundary conditions where you can have 50 or 100 of these people.

Starting point is 02:08:15 That's why they need it to be really appreciated. Yeah, well, that's true for all humans that follow the threat of their passion and do something beautiful in this world. I could be in a small scale or a big scale. Appreciation is, that's a gift, you give to the other person, but also a gift to yourself. That somehow it becomes like this contagious thing. I went to this, you are so right,

Starting point is 02:08:42 you just like, my brain just let up because yesterday I went to this, you are so right, you just like, my brain just lit up because yesterday I went to an investor day of my friend of mine, describe Brad Gerstner. And, you know, on the one very reductive world, Brad and I are theoretically competitors. But we're not, he makes his own set of decisions, I make my own set of decisions.

Starting point is 02:09:02 We're both trying to do our own view of what is good work in the world. But he's been profoundly successful. And it was really the first moment of my adult life where I could sit in a moment like that and really be appreciative of his success and not feel less than. And so, you know, little selfishly for me, but mostly for him as well, I was so proud to be in the room. That's my friend. That guy plays poker with me every Thursday.

Starting point is 02:09:29 He is crushing it. That's awesome. You know, and that's the, it's a really amazing feeling. I mean, to linger on the trade offs, the complicated trade offs with all of this, what's your take on work-life balance in a company that's trying to do big things? I think that you have to have some very, very strict boundaries, but otherwise I think balance is kind of dumb.

Starting point is 02:10:04 It will make you limited. I think you need to immerse yourself in the problem. But you need to define that immersion with boundaries. So if you ask me, what does like my process look like? It's monotonous and regimented, but it's all the time except when it's not. And that's also monotonous and regimented. And I think that makes me very good at my craft because it gives me what I need

Starting point is 02:10:35 to stay connected to the problem without feeling resentful about the problem. Which part, the monotonous all-in nature of it or the the when you say hard boundaries essentially go all out and stop and you don't stop often. I'm in a little bit of a quandary right now because I'm trying to redefine my goals. And you're catching me in a moment where I have even in these last few years of evolution, think I've made some good progress, but in one very specific way, I'm still very reptilian.

Starting point is 02:11:15 And I'm trying to let go. Which was exactly a few came in. You know, my business, it really gets reduced to what is your annual rate of compounding. That's my demarcation. You know, Steph Curry and LeBron James, Michael Jordan, it's how many points did you average, not just in a season, but over your career. And in their case, to really be the greatest of all time, it's points, rebounds, assists, steels, there's all kinds of measures to be in that pantheon of being really, really good at your craft.

Starting point is 02:11:51 In my business, it's very reductive. It's how well I love you compounded. If you look at all the heroes that I have put on a pedestal in my mind. They've compounded, you know, at above 30% for a very long time. As have I. But now I feel like I really need to let go because I think I know how to do the basics of my job. And if I had to summarize like an investing challenge or investing, I think really it's, you know, when you first start out investing, you're a momentum person. You saw it in GameStop, just a bunch of people aping each other. And then it goes from momentum

Starting point is 02:12:37 to you start to think about cash flows, you know, how much profit is this person going to make, whatever. So that's like the evolution. This is the basic thing to, this is a reasonably sophisticated way. Then a much smaller group of people think about it in terms of macro geopolitics. But then a very finite few crack this special code, which is there's a philosophy. And it's the philosophy that creates the system. And I'm scratching at that furiously,

Starting point is 02:13:07 but I cannot break through and I haven't broken through and I know that in order to break through, I got to let go. So this is the journey that I'm in as in my in my professional life. So it is an all-consuming thing, but I'm always home for dinner. You know, we have very prescribed moments where we take vacation, the weekends, you know, like if I can tell you about my week, if you're curious, but it's like, I would love to know you week. It's since it's regimented in a monotonous. I woke up at 6.45. Get the kids, go downstairs. We all have some form of, you know, not super healthy breakfast. I make a latte.

Starting point is 02:13:50 I've become, and the latte is like, I have a machine. I measure the beans. You know, I make sure that the timer is such where I have to pull it for a certain specific ratio, you know, just so you know, 20 grams. I got to pull 30 grams with the water and I got, you know, I got to do it in 30 seconds, et cetera. So your coffee snob. It helps me stay in rhythm. Sure.

Starting point is 02:14:12 Before I used to have another machine, I just pushed a button. But then I would push the button religiously in the exact same way. You know what I mean? Okay. Actually, on that topic, you know, the morning with kids can be pretty stressful thing. Are you able to find sort of happiness? Is that also that morning is a source of happiness? It's great. My kids are lovely. They're maniacs. I just see, you know, and maybe I don't, I've never asked for you, but I'll just put my words, I see all of the things

Starting point is 02:14:49 in moments where there was no compassion given to me. And so I just give him a ton of love and compassion. I have infinite patience for my children, not for other kids. Yes, of course. So anyway, so we have a breakfast thing. And then I go upstairs, and I go, I change and I work out from eight to nine. And that's like the first 15 minutes,

Starting point is 02:15:19 I walk up on a steep incline, you know, 12 to 14%, you know, three and a half to four miles per hour, walk. And then, you know, Mondays of push day, Jews days, front of the legs, Wednesdays pull, Thursdays, back of the legs, eight to nine. Monday, I always start, I talked to my therapist from nine to 10. So as soon as I finish working out, I get on the phone and I talked to him. And it helps me lock in for the week. And I'm just talking about the past. And it's just helping me. The recent past. Usually, sometimes the recent past, but usually it's about the past past.

Starting point is 02:16:04 Usually, sometimes the recent past, but usually it's about the past past. Something that I remember when I was a kid. Because that's the work about just loosening those knots, you know. So I put in that hour of work, respect that hour. Then I'm in the office and then it's like, you know, I go until 12, 15, 12, 30, go home, have lunch, like a proper, like go home, sit down, have lunch with Nat, talk, she leaves her work. And we talk, how are we doing? You know, just check in. Our youngest daughter will be there because she's one and she's making a mess.

Starting point is 02:16:40 And then I'll have another coffee. That's it, my limit for the day. Oh, no more caffeine. That's it, my limit for the day. Oh, no more caffeine. That's it. And then I go back to the office, and I'll be there until six, seven, sometimes. And I do that Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday. Monday, Tuesday, Thursday, Friday,

Starting point is 02:16:56 I'm allowed to have meetings. Wednesday, nothing, it's all reading, must be. Unless it's a complete emergency, it has to be kind of a full reading and reading is a bunch of blogs, YouTube videos. So no, I'm trying not to do any talking. No talking. It's like being in silence, being present, thinking about things. By the way, how do you take notes? Do you have a sketch? I have a pad and I write stuff down. Sometimes I go to my phone. I'm a little all over the place.

Starting point is 02:17:26 Sometimes I do Google Docs. I don't have a, this is one thing I need to get better at actually. But typically what happens is I actually do a lot of thinking in my mind and I'm sort of filing a lot of stuff away. And then it all spills out and then I have to write. And then that gives me a body of work that I can evaluate and think about. And then I usually put it away. And a lot of the time it goes nowhere. But every now and then I come back to it and it just unlocks two or three things and I have a sense of how else I'm thinking about things. And then Friday at the end of the day, Nat and I talked to a couple of therapists and that's about checking out properly. So it's like, okay, now it's like focusing. The weekend is family, being present, being aware,

Starting point is 02:18:20 and if there's email, obviously, if I have to do meetings from time to time, no problem. But there's boundaries. Checking out properly. Oh man, that is so powerful. Just like officially transitioning. Yeah. So these are really important boundaries so that I can be immersed. And what that means is like look on a Saturday afternoon, you know, on a random day,

Starting point is 02:18:42 it should be like where is Tramoth and I'll be up in my room. And I've found a podcast talking about like, um, uh, Deesys, which is like, ductal cancer in C2 because I've been fascinated about breast cancer surgeries for a while and learning about that. And she's like, what are you doing? I'm like, um, I'm listening to podcasts about Deesys. And she's like, what's that? Like, you know, Dr. Cancer in C2. She's like, okay. And so, you know, so I have time to continue

Starting point is 02:19:10 to just constantly learning, learning, putting stuff in my memory banks to organize into something. And that's like a, that's a week. But then in these fixed moments of time, phone down, everything down, we go on vacation, you know, we go on a boat, we go on vacation, you know, we go on a boat, we go to whatever where it's just us and the kids.

Starting point is 02:19:34 Is there a structure when you're at work? Is there a structure to your day, in terms of meetings, in terms of South Side of Wednesday? You know, because you're... Half the keep meetings to less than 30 minutes. Half to. And, you know, oftentimes meetings can be as short as like 10 or 15 minutes, because then I'm just like, okay, because I'm trying to reinforce that it's very rare that we all have something really important to say. And so the ritual that is becomes really valuable to get scale is not the ritual of meetings, but the ritual of respecting the collective time of the unit. And so it's like, you know what folks, I'm going to assume that you guys are also tackling really important projects. You also want to have good boundaries in this immersion, go back to

Starting point is 02:20:15 your kids and have dinner with them every night. It's not just for me, it's for you. So how about this, why don't you go and do your work? This meeting didn't need to be 30 minutes, it could be five. And the rest of the time is yours. And it's weird because when people join that system at social capital, they just, it's like FaceTime and it's like, let me make sure, and let me talk a lot. That's like, I'm saying anything.

Starting point is 02:20:37 I respect the person that says nothing for two years and the first thing that they say is not obvious. That person is immensely more valuable than the person that tries to talk all the time. What have you learned from your... So after Facebook, you started social capital, or what is now called social capital, what have you learned from all the successful investing you've done there about investing or about life or about running a team? I'm very low to give advice because I think it's so much of it is situational, but my observation

Starting point is 02:21:09 is that starting a business is really hard, any kind of business, and most people don't know what they're doing. And as a result, we make enormous mistakes. But I would summarize this, and this may be a little heterodoxical. I think there are only three kinds of mistakes. Because if we go back to what we said before, in the business, it's just learning. You're exploring the dark space to get to the answer faster than other people. And those, the mistakes that you make are three, or the three kinds of decisions, let's say you'll hire somebody and

Starting point is 02:21:54 They're really really really average, but they're a really good person. Oh, yeah, you'll hire somebody and they really weren't candid with who they are and their real personality and their morality and their ethics only expose them over a long period of time. And then you hire somebody and they're not that good, morally, but they're highly performant. What do you do with those three things? What do you do with those three things? And I think successful companies have figured out how to answer those three things because those are the things that I, in my opinion, determine success and failure. So it's basically hiring and you just identified three failure cases for hiring. But very different failure cases and very complicated runs, right? Like the highly performant person who's not that great as a human being. Do you keep them around? Well, a lot of people would air towards keeping that person around. What is the right answer? I don't know. It's the

Starting point is 02:22:55 context of the situation. And the second one is also very tricky. What about if they really turned out that they were just not candid with who they are and it took you a long time to figure out who you were? These are all mistakes of the senior person that's running this organization. I think if you can learn to manage those situations well, those are the real edge cases where you can make mistakes that are fatal to a company. That's what I've learned over 11 and a half years. Honestly, otherwise the business of investing, I feel that it's a secret. If you are willing to just keep chipping away, you'll peel back enough of these layers will come off and you'll see it.

Starting point is 02:23:38 The scales will come off and you'll eventually see it. I really struggle with maybe you can be my therapist for a little bit, with that first case, which you originally mentioned, because I love people. I see the good in people. I really struggle with just a mediocre performing person who's a good human being. That's a tough one. I'll let you off the hook. Yeah.

Starting point is 02:24:02 I think those are incredibly important and useful people. I think that if a company is like a body They are like cartilage. Can you replace cartilage? Yeah, but would you if he didn't have to? No Okay, can I can I play devil's advocate? Yeah, so those folks because of their goodness Make it okay to be mediocre. They create a culture where well, what's important in life, which is something I agree in my personal life, is to be good to each other, to be friendly, to be good vibes, all that kind of stuff, you know, when I was a Google, just like the good atmosphere, everyone's playing, it's fun, fun, right? But to me, like when I put on my hat of like having a mission in a goal, what I love to

Starting point is 02:24:58 see is the superstars that shine for some, in some way, like do something incredible. And I want everyone to also admire that those superstars and perhaps not just for the productivity sake or performing or successful company sake, but because that too is an incredible thing that humans are able to accomplish, which is shine. I hear you, but that's not a decision you make, meaning you get lucky when you have those people in your company. That's not the hard part for you. The hard part is figuring out what to do with one, two, and three. Yeah.

Starting point is 02:25:35 Keep demote, promote, fire. What do you do? And this is why it's all about those three buckets. I personally believe that folks in that bucket one, as long as those folks aren't more than 50 to 60% of a company, are good. And they can be managed as long as they are one to two degrees away from one of those people that you just mentioned. Yeah.

Starting point is 02:25:59 Because it's easy then to drag the entire company down if they're too far away from the LeBron James because you don't know what LeBron James looks and feels and smells and you know. So you need that tactile sense of what excellence looks like in front of you. A great example is if you're like if you just go on YouTube and you search these clips of how Kobe Bryant's teammates described not Kobe but how their own behavior not performance because there is a bunch of average people that Kobe played with his ochre, but their behavior changed by being somewhat closer to him.

Starting point is 02:26:35 And I think that's an important psychological thing to note for how you can do reasonably good team construction. If you're lucky enough to find those generational talents, you have to find a composition of a team that keeps them roughly close to enough of the orc. That way, that group of people can continue to add value, and then you'll have courage to fire these next two groups of people. And I think the answer is to fire those two groups of people. Because no matter how good you are, that stuff just injects poison into a living organism. And that living organism will die when exposed to poison. So you invest in a lot of companies. You look at a lot of companies. What do you think

Starting point is 02:27:18 makes for a good leader? So we talked about building a team, but a good leader for a company. What are the qualities? You know, when I first meet people, I never asked to see a resume. And when I'm meeting a company CEO for the first time, I couldn't care less about the business. In fact, and I try to take the time to let them reveal themselves. Now in this environment, you know, I'm doing most of the talking. But if this were the other way around and you were ever raising capital and you said, , Chmoth, I'd be interested in you looking at this business. I'd probably say eight to ten words for hours.

Starting point is 02:27:58 I just listen. Prod. You know, I throw things out, prod, and I let you me enter. And in new meandering, I'm trying to build a sense of who this person is. Once I have a rough sense of that, which is not necessarily right, but it's a starting point, then I can go and understand why this idea makes sense in this moment. And what I'm really trying to do is just kind of like unpack where are the biases that may make you, you know, fail. And then we go back to you. The thing that

Starting point is 02:28:33 Silicon Valley has the benefit of though is that they don't have to do any of this stuff if there's momentum, because then the rulebook goes out the window and people clamor to invest. So, one of the things that I do, and this is again back to this pugilism that I inflict on myself, is I have these two things that I look at. Thing number one is I have a table that says, how much should we make from all of our best investments? How much should we lose from all of our worst investments? What is the ratio of winners to losers over 11 years? And in our case, it's 23 to 1 on billions of dollars, so you can kind of like, you can see a lot of signal. But what that allows me to do is really,

Starting point is 02:29:20 like say, wait a minute, like we cannot violate these rules around how much money we're willing to commit in an errant personality. You know, the second is I ask myself of all the other top VCs in Silicon Valley, name them all, you know, what's our correlation, meaning when I do a deal how often does anybody from Sequoia Excel benchmark Clienter who you name it do it at the same time or after and vice versa and Then then I look at the data to see how much they do it amongst themselves What's a good sign on the I'm at zero as virtually close to zero as possible and that's a good thing well It's not a good thing when the markets are way, way up because it creates an enormous

Starting point is 02:30:09 amount of momentum. So I have to make money the hard way. I have to, you know, because I'm trafficking in things that are highly uncorrelated to the Gestalt of Silicon Valley, which can be a lonely business. But it's really valuable in moments where markets get crushed because correlation is the first thing that causes massive destruction of capital, massive. Because one person, all of a sudden, with one blow up and one company boom, the contagion hits everybody except the person that was, you know, not. And so,

Starting point is 02:30:43 now those are like more sophisticated elements of risk management, which is again, this pugilism that I inflict on my nobody asks me to do that. Nobody actually at some level when the markets are up really care, that when markets are sideways or when markets are down, I think that that allows me to feel proud of our process. You know, but that requires you to think a lot, a lot outside of the box, it's lonely because you're taking risks. Also, your public personality, so you say stuff that if it's wrong, you get yelled at for constantly. For being, I mean, your mistakes aren't private.

Starting point is 02:31:19 No, and that's something that has been a really, really healthy moment of growth. It's like an athlete, you know, if you really want to be a winner, you got to hit the shot in front of the fans. And if you miss it, you have to be willing to take the responsibility of the fact that you've bricked it. And over time, hopefully there's a body of work that says you've generally hit more than you've missed. But if you look at even the best shooters, what are they? 52%. So these are razor thin margins at the end of the day, which is really, so then what

Starting point is 02:31:57 can you control? I can't control the defense. I can't control what they throw up me. I can just control my preparation and whether I'm in the best position to launch a reasonable shot. You said that the world's first trillionaire will be somebody in climate change in the past. Let's update that. What's today, as we stand here today, what sector will the world's first trillionaire come from?

Starting point is 02:32:21 I think it's energy transition. So energy. So the things we've been talking about. Yeah. Really? So is it okay? Well, I think I think the way that I think about. So this is a single individual starting to interrupt you see their ability to actually build a company that makes huge amount of money as opposed to this distributed idea that you've been talking to. Yeah, I'll give you my philosophy on wealth. Most of it is not you.

Starting point is 02:32:52 An enormous amount of it is the genetic distribution of being born in the right place and blah, blah, blah. For irrespective of the boundary conditions of how you were born or where you were raised, right? So, you know, at the end of the day, you and I ended up in the United States. It's a huge benefit to us. Second is the end of the day you and I ended up in the United States. It's a huge benefit to us Second is the benefit of our age It's much better and much more likely to be successful as a 46 year old in 2023 than a 26 year old in 2023

Starting point is 02:33:18 Because in my case, I have demographics working for me For the 26 year old here. She has demographics working slightly against. Can you explain that a little bit? What are the demographics here? In the case of me, the distribution of population in America looks like a pyramid. And in that pyramid, I'm wedged in between these two massive population cohorts, the boomers and then these, you know, Gen Z and millennials. And that's a very advantageous position. It's not dissimilar to the position that Buffett was where he was, you know, packaged in between boomers beneath him and the silent generation above him. And being in between two massive population

Starting point is 02:34:01 cohorts turns out to be extremely advantageous because when the cohort above you transitions power and capital and all of the stuff, you're the next person that's likely gets handed it. So we have a disproportionate likelihood to be, you know, we are lucky to be older than younger. So that's an advantage. And then the other advantage that has nothing to do with me is that I stumbled into technology. I got a degree in electrical engineering and I ended up coming to Silicon Valley. And it turned out that in that moment, it was such a transformational wind of change that was at my back.

Starting point is 02:34:36 Right? So the wealth that one creates is a huge part of those variables, and then the last variable is your direct contributions in that moment. And the reason why that can create extreme wealth is because when those things come together at the right moment, it's like a chemical reaction. I mean, it's just crazy. So that was sort of part number one of what I wanted to say. The second thing is when you look then inside of these systems where you have all these tailwinds, right? So in tech, I think I benefit from these three big tailwinds. If you build the company or are part of a company or a part of a movement, your economic participation

Starting point is 02:35:28 tends to be a direct byproduct of the actual value that that thing creates in the world. And the thing that that creates in the world will be bigger if it is not just an economic system, but it's like a philosophical system. It changes the way the governance happens. It changes the way that people think about all kinds of other things about their lives. So there's a reason, I think, why database companies are worth X, social companies are worth Y, but the military industrial complex is worth, you know, as much. And I think there is a reason why that if you, for example, were to go

Starting point is 02:36:13 off and build some newfangled source of energy that's clean and hyper abundant and safe, that what you're really going to displace or reshape is trillions and trillions of dollars of worldwide GDP. So the global GDP is, I call it, 85 trillion. You might as well as going at 2 to 3 percent a year. So in the next 10 years, we'll be dealing with a hundred trillion dollars of GDP. Right? Somebody who develops clean energy in 2035 will probably shift 10% of that around $10 trillion.

Starting point is 02:36:49 A company can easily capture 30% of a market, $3 trillion. A human being can typically own a third of one of these companies, $1 trillion. So you can kind of get to this answer where it's like, it's going to happen in our lifetime. But you have to, I think, find these systems that are so gargantuan and they exist today. It's more bounded because price discovery takes longer. And an existing thing, it's more unbounded because you know what it is. You know the tentacles that energy reaches. Right? Of that $80 trillion of worldwide GDP, I bet you, if you added up all the energy companies,

Starting point is 02:37:27 but then you added up all of manufacturing, you know, if you added up all of transport, you'd probably get to like 60 of the 80. Do you have an idea of which energy, which alternative energy sustainable energy is the most promising? Well, I think that we have to do a better job of exploring what I call the suburbs of the periodic table.

Starting point is 02:37:54 So we're really good in Seattle, the upper northwest. Yes. We're kind of good in Portland, but we're not existing in San Diego, and we have zero plan for North Carolina through Florida. Yeah. kind of good in Portland, but we're not existing in San Diego, and we have zero plan for North Carolina through Florida. Yeah. And so is that a fancy way of saying nuclear is should be part of the discussion? I think nuclear, I mean, room temperature

Starting point is 02:38:16 semiconductors. I'm not convinced right now that the existing set of nuclear solutions will do a good job of scaling beyond bench scale. I think there is a lot of complicated technical problems that make it work at a bench scale level, even partially, but the energy equation is going to be very difficult to overcome in the absence of some leaps in material science. Have you seen any leaps? Is there promising stuff like you're seeing a cutting edge from a company perspective? Yeah. I would say not yet.

Starting point is 02:38:45 I, but the precursor, yes, I have been spending a fair amount of time. So talking about like a new framework that's in my mind is around these room temp superconductors. And so I've been kind of bumbling around in that forest for about a year. kind of bumbling around in that forest for about a year. I haven't really put together any meaningful perspectives, but again, talking about like trafficking in companies and investments that are very lonely, but they allow me to generate returns that are relatively unique and independent. That's an area where I don't see anybody else when I'm there. I'll give you another area. that's an area where I don't see anybody else when I'm there. I'll give you another area. You know, we, I think, are about to unleash in a world of zero energy and zero compute costs. Computational biology will replace white chemistry. And when you do that,

Starting point is 02:39:41 you will be able to iterate on tools that will be able to solve a lot of human disease. I think like if you look at the head of like the top 400 most recurring rare diseases, I think like half the number 200 is specific point mutation as just the mis-methylation between C and T. I mean, that's like, whoa, wait, you're telling me in billions of lines of code, I forgot, you know, semi-cooling right there. That's causing this whole thing to mis-compile. So I just got to go in there and boom, and it's all done.

Starting point is 02:40:13 It's a crazy idea. That was a C++ C, C, C, throwback for people that don't know what I said. There's two people or a client right there. Yeah. Everybody's like that one. This is not a five-footy talking stuff. Makes perfect sense. But, but, so that couldn't that be a truly a source of a,

Starting point is 02:40:28 a huge, the competition by all general law, so I mean, obviously medicine is begging for some place. The thing with energy though, is that the groundwork is well laid. And talking about sort of like the upper bound is well defined. The upper bound in medicine is not well defined because it is not the sum total of the market cap of the farm industries.

Starting point is 02:40:50 It is actually the sum total of the value of human life. And that's an extremely ethical and moral question. Is there a special interest that are resisting moving, making progress on the energy side. So like governments and how do you break through that? I mean, you have to acknowledge the reality of that, right? I think it's less governments. In fact, like I said, I think President Biden has done a really incredible job while Chuck Schumer really

Starting point is 02:41:16 is done a really incredible job because, so just to give you the math on this, right? Like back to this, so 3% of everything is of a market or zealots. But when you get past 5%, things tend to just go nuclear to 50, 60%. The way that they wrote this last bill, the cost I'll just use the cars as an example. The cost of an average car is 22 and a half thousand. The cost of the cheapest battery car is 30,000. And lo and behold, there's a $7,500 credit. And it's like, to think the invisible hand didn't know that that math was right, I think,

Starting point is 02:41:53 is kind of a little bit melarkey. And so the battery EV car is going to be the same price as the thing, and it's going to go to 40, 50%. So we're already at this tipping point, so we're kind of ready to go. In these other markets, it's a little bit more complicated because there's a lot of infrastructure that needs to get built. So, you know, the gene editing thing as an example, you know, we have to build a tool chain that looks more like code that you can write to. Facebook is written in I think PHP, and originally PHP, which is I'm still a big fan of.

Starting point is 02:42:29 Sometimes you have to use the ugly solution and make it look good versus trying to come up with a good solution, which will be too late. Let me ask you, you consider a run for Governor of California and then decided against it. What went into each of these decisions? And broadly, I just have maybe a selfish question about Silicon Valley. Is it over as a world leader for new tech companies?

Starting point is 02:43:01 As a, this beacon of promise of young minds stepping in and creating something that changes the world. I don't know if those two questions are connected. So it's not it's not over, but I think it's definitely we're in a challenging moment. Because so back to that analogy of the demographics. If you think about the, like, if you bucket it, forget like our relative successes. But there's a bunch of us in this mid 50s to mid 30s cohort of people that have now been around, you know, for 20 years, 15 years to 25 years that have done stuff, right? From Andreessen to Zuck to Jack Dorsey, et cetera, Elon, you know, whatever, maybe you throw me in the mix, David Sacks, whatever, okay?

Starting point is 02:43:54 None of us have done a really good job of becoming a statesman, or a stateswoman, you know, and really showing a broad empathy and awareness for the broader systems. So Silicon Valley is to survive as a system. We need to know that we've transitioned from move fast and break things to get to the right answer and take your time if that's what it means. And so we have to be a participant of the system. And I believe that. And I think that it's important to not be a delatant and not be thumbing your face to Washington or not push the boundaries and say,

Starting point is 02:44:35 we'll deal with it after the fact. But to work with folks that are trying to do the best, again, steel men, their point of view. Work with them,ension run for office. So potentially, understand the system. It makes me sad that there's no tech people, or not many tech people in Congress, and certainly not in the presidential level, not many governors or senators. Well, I think that we also have roughly,

Starting point is 02:45:05 our rules will never allow some of the best and brightest folks to run for president because of just the rules against it. But if, if, if, oh, I mean, yeah, I mean, like, look, I think David Sacks would be an incredible presidential candidate. Now, I also think he'd be a great governor. No, he was born in South Africa. You know, I think he'd be a great governor.

Starting point is 02:45:23 I think he'd be a great secretary of state. I mean, he'd be great at whatever he wanted to do. Friedberg wasn't born here. So there's a lot of people that could contribute at different levels. And I hope that, by the way, the other thing I like about the pod is I also think it helps normalize tech a little bit. Because you just see normal people dealing with normal situations.

Starting point is 02:45:49 And I think that that's good. You know, it is a really normative place. It's not the caricature that it's made out to be, but there is a small virulent strain of people that make it caricature like. Well, that's in one direction. What do you think about the whole culture of, I don't know, better terms, but woke activism. So, sort of activism, which in some context is a powerful and important thing, but infiltrating companies. I'll answer this in the context of Runeja

Starting point is 02:46:17 Rard. So, like, he says that people tend to copy each other. And then, when they're copying each other, they're really what they're doing is they're fighting over some scarce resource. And then you find a way to organize against, you know, the group of you against a person or a thing that you think is the actual cause of all of this conflict and you try to expel them. The thing that woke is him doesn't understand is that unless that person is truly to blame, the cycle just continues. And that was a framework that he developed that he's really conclusively proven to be

Starting point is 02:46:55 true and it's observable in humanity and life. So these movements, I think, the extreme left and the extreme right, are trying to interpret a way to allow people to compete for some scarce resource. But I also think that in all of that, what they don't realize is that they can scapegoat whoever they want, but it's not going to work because the bull work of people in the middle realize that it's just not true. Yeah, they realized that they're still because in leadership positions, they're still momentum and they still scapegoat and they continue.

Starting point is 02:47:35 And it seems to hurt the actual body. Well, it was a much more successful. But in fairness, though, if you had to graph the effectiveness of that function, it's decaying rapidly. It's the least effective it's ever been. You're absolutely right. Being canceled five years ago was a huge deal. Today, I think it was Jordan Peterson on your podcast. He said, I've been canceled and it was amazing.

Starting point is 02:47:57 He said 38 times or 40. He said some number, which was a ginormous number, A, that he kept account of it and B was able to classify it. I'm like, what classifier is going on in his mind? Where he's like, that's an attempt to cancel me, but this one is not. But my point is, well, it's clearly not working. And so the guy is still there, and the guy is putting his view out into the world. And so it's not the judge whether what he says is right or wrong.

Starting point is 02:48:22 It's just to observe that this mechanism of action is now weakened. But it's weakened because it's not the thing that people think is really to blame. Yeah. You've been canceled on a small scale a few times, so that's not sure it didn't feel small. Actually it wasn't a small. I'm trying to minimize. Did that psychologically hurt you? Yeah. It was tough. I mean, in the psychologically hurt you? Yeah. It was tough.

Starting point is 02:48:46 I mean, in the moment, you don't know what's going on. But I would like to thank a certain CEO of a certain well-known company. And he sent me basically like a step-by-step manual. And uh, Isn't it involved mushrooms? No. No, and, uh, and he was right, you know, the storm passed in life and all. Is it, uh, I don't know if you can share the, the list of steps, but is the fundamental core ideas that just life goes on? The core fundamental idea is like, you need to be willing and able to apologize for what is in your control, but not for other people's mistakes.

Starting point is 02:49:33 Your mistakes, yes, and if you feel like there's something, then you should take accountability of that. But to apologize for somebody else, for something that they want to hear. Isn't going to solve anything. Yeah, there's something about apologies if you do them. They should be authentic to what you actually want to say, versus what somebody else needs to hear. Otherwise, it doesn't ring true. Yeah, and people can see through that.

Starting point is 02:50:01 And people can see through it. And also, what people see through is not just the fact that your apology was somewhat hollow, but also that this entire majority of people now walked away. The mob was like, okay, good things. And then people are like, also you didn't care at all. This is like, and so then it reflects more probably on them. Yeah.

Starting point is 02:50:20 I know you said you don't like to give advice, but what advice would you give to a young person? You've lived an incredible life from very humble beginnings, difficult childhood, and you're one of the most successful people in the world. So what advice, I mean, a lot of people look to you for inspiration. Kids in high school or early college, they're not doing good or are trying to figure out basically what to do when they have complete doubt in themselves.

Starting point is 02:50:53 What advice would you give them? It is really important that if somebody that you respect, and I'm going to just for the purpose of this, put myself in that bucket, and if you're listening to this, I wish somebody had told this to me. We are all equal. And you will fight this demon inside you that says you are less than a lot of other people For reasons that will be hard to see until you're much much older And so you have to find

Starting point is 02:51:37 Either a set of people far far away like what I did or One or two people really really close to you Or maybe it's both that will remind you in key moments of your life that that is true. Otherwise, you will give in to that beast. And it's not the end of the world, and you'll recover from it. I've made a lot of mistakes, but it requires a lot of energy and sometimes it's just easier to just stop and give up. So I think that if you're starting out in the world, if you've been lucky to have a wonderful life and you had wonderful parents, man, you should go and give them a huge hug because they did use such a service that most folks don't do to most kids, unfortunately. And it's not the fault of these parents, but it's just tough.

Starting point is 02:52:30 Life is tough. So give them a kiss and then figure out a way where you can just do work that validates you and where you feel like you're developing some kind of mastery. Who cares what anybody else thinks about it? Just do it because it feels good. Do it because you like to get good at something but if you're not one of those lucky people You can believe in your friends or you can just believe in me. I'm telling you preserve optionality How you do that is by regulating

Starting point is 02:53:01 Your reactions to things your reactions to things, and your reactions are going to be largely guided in moments where you think that you are not the same as everybody else, and specifically that you are less than those people and you're not. So just save this part of this podcast and just play it on a loop if you need to, but that is my biggest learning is I am equal. I'm the same as all these other people. And you can imagine what that means to me to go out in the world to see people and think, okay, I'm the same as this person. I'm as good as them. And you could imagine what you're probably thinking of what I'm thinking is not that thing, right?

Starting point is 02:53:41 You're probably thinking, man, this guy, yeah, this guy, I'm so much better. No. I am fighting this thing all the time. Well, I've also met a bunch of folks who I think is a counter reaction to that once they become successful, they start developing a philosophy that they are better or even some people are better than others. Which I understand, you know, there's LeBron James versus other people and so on. But I always really resisted that thought because I feel like it's a slippery soul. They have mastery in a thing that they've fallen in love with.

Starting point is 02:54:21 Yeah. I'm trying to develop mastery in a thing that I love. You know, I love investing. It's like solving puzzles. And I love that. I love trying to develop mastery and poker. I really love that. I'm learning how to be a parent to a teenager because I have finally have one. It's all new stuff to me and I'm learning. That's what it's all about. Yeah, so you don't want to think you're lesser than and you don't want to think you're better than because those both lead you astray. I've never thought I was better than. I manifested better than because I was trying to compensate for feeling less than.

Starting point is 02:55:02 My goal is just to feel like everybody else feels. On the presumption that everybody had like a normal life. Given your nickname as the dictator, do you trust yourself with power? If the world gave you absolute power for a month. No. No, because I think that, you know, I'm still riddled with bias. I don't deserve that position. And I would not want that weight on my shoulders. I had a spot where it was a very important and big poker game. It was a spot where I was

Starting point is 02:55:38 in the pot. A really large pot was a million dollar pot. And I had to make a ruling, and the ruling was in my favor. And I was just beside myself. I don't play for the challenge. I like to get pushed to the limit of my capabilities. I want to see, can I think at the same level of these folks? Because these guys are all experts, they're all pros. And I get enormous joy from that challenge.

Starting point is 02:56:12 And I like to win, but I like to win just a small amount. You know what I mean? And then I never wanted to win in that way, but because it was, you know, my game, I had to make this call on a million dollar pot and I wanted to just shoot myself. I just was like, this is gross and disgusting. And he was a complete gentleman, which made it even worse. I was like, oh god. So I do not want absolute power.

Starting point is 02:56:39 Well, those are the people you do want to have power is the ones that don't want it, which is a weird system to have, because then you in that kind of system don't get the leaders that you should have, because the ones that want power and the ones that should have power, that's a weird, weird system. What do you think? Let me sneak this question in there. What do you think is the meaning of life? I don't know.

Starting point is 02:57:04 Why are we here? What is the meaning of life? I don't know. Why are we here? You have to look up at the stars and think about the big, why question. I think that it's a chance to just enjoy the ride. I don't think it really, like, I don't believe in this idea of legacy that much. I think it's a real trap. So do you think you'll be forgotten by history? I hope so. I really, really hope so. Because if you think about it, there are two or three people that are remembered for positive things and everybody else, it's all negative things. And the likelihood that you'll be

Starting point is 02:57:43 remembered for a positive thing is harder and harder and harder. And the likelihood that you'll be remembered for a positive thing is hard or hard and harder. And so the surface area of being remembered is negative. And then the second, what will it matter? I'll be gone. I really just want to like have fun, do my thing, learn, get better. But I want to reward myself by feeling like, well, that was awesome. Like, I've told this story many times and I have put, again, my own narrative fallacy on top of this, but, you know, Steve Jobs's sister wrote this, you know, op-it in the New York Times when he died. And she ends it by saying his last words were, oh, wow, oh, wow, oh, wow. That seems like an awesome way to die. You're surrounded by your friends and family, not the fact that he died, obviously. But in a moment where what I read into it was your

Starting point is 02:58:35 family was there. Maybe you thought about all the cool shit that you were able to do. And then, you know, you just started the simulation all over again. And so, just on the off chance that that's true, I don't want to take this thing too seriously. You know what I mean? Just enjoy it. So you're not afraid of it? The end? No.

Starting point is 02:59:00 Good end tomorrow. Good end right now. So every day you can go and you're happy. You're happy with the things you've done. Yeah. You know, there are obviously things I want to do that I haven't done. But there are no gaping things. I've really, really felt like everybody else. There have been moments where I've deep, deep, deep joy and connection with my children. There are moments where I've had incredible giggling fun with my friends. There's moments where I've been able to enjoy really incredible experiences, wine, food, all that stuff.

Starting point is 02:59:46 Great. I mean, what more do you want? Like, I could keep asking for more, but I would just be a really crappy human being at some point. You know what I mean? It's enough. Yeah. Yeah.

Starting point is 03:00:02 It's enough. Yeah. It's enough. This life, this life is pretty beautiful. If you allow yourself to see it, yeah. It's enough. It's enough. This life, this life is pretty beautiful. If you allow yourself to see it, yeah. It's really great and it's better than it's ever been for most of us actually. Yeah, it's pretty nice. You know, and all of the like, you know,

Starting point is 03:00:17 millennials and Gen Zs, you're about to get a boatload of money from your parents. And you better figure out how to be happy before you get that money. Yeah. Because otherwise you will be miserable. Get a lot of dairy queen. No, that would that only work the first time. It worked two times in grade five and grade six. My God, that next year, it's like, I worked my ass off. I'm like, but I could never bring myself to ask her. Yeah. And then she did it. And I was like, man, that she's this woman's a misbrony. She was a gem. Yeah. But the third time it faded, it's not the sad thing in my life. You know, the finitenessness of it the scarcity of it

Starting point is 03:01:07 Without that we perhaps wouldn't ice cream wouldn't be so damn delicious Chamati you're an incredible human. I definitely recommend that people listen to on all All platforms just we're very lucky to be able to get you wisdom. I agree with I've talked a lot about you with Andre K Kapati, who somebody I really respect. And he just loves the shit out of you in how much you how deeply you understand the world. He's an incredible human being. So that's on a different, yeah, speaking of semicolons, there's some human beings that understand everything at the very low level and at

Starting point is 03:01:42 the very high level. And those people are also very rare. So it's a huge honor. And also a huge honor that you would be so kind to me, just like in subtle ways offline, that you would make me feel like I'm worthwhile. Well, can I just say something as just a layman listener? What you do, just so I could give you my version, is that you take things and people, so ideas and people that are mostly behind a rope and

Starting point is 03:02:18 you demystify it. And what that does for all of us is it makes me feel like I can be a part of that. And that's a really inspiring thing because it's, you're not giving advice, you're not telling us how to solve the problem, but you're allowing it to be understood in a way that's really accessible. And then you're intellectually curious in ways that some of us would never expect that we were and then you kind of end up in this rabbit hole. And then you have the courage to go

Starting point is 03:02:53 and talk to people that are really all over the map. Like for example, when I saw your Jordan Peterson example, like you went there, like you talked about not seizing him and I was just like, man, this is a complicated argument. These guys are going to tackle and it's just, it's really, really impressive. So I have an enormous amount of respect for what you do. I think it's very hard to do what you do so consistently. And so I look at you as somebody I respect because it's it just shows like

Starting point is 03:03:27 somebody who's immersed in something and who's Very special. So thank you for including me in this. I'm gonna play that clip to myself privately over and over Just think when I feel low and self-critical myself. Thank you so much brother. Thanks. It's incredible. Thanks, man Thank you for listening to this conversation with Jamal Tha Paala Habbatia. To support this podcast, please check out our sponsors in the description. And now, let me leave you with some words from Jonathan Swift. A wise person should have money in their head, but not in their heart. Thank you for listening and hope to see you next time.

Starting point is 03:04:15 you

Lex Fridman Podcast - #338 – Chamath Palihapitiya: Money, Success, Startups, Energy, Poker & Happiness

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