Moonshots with Peter Diamandis - AI Hype Vs. Reality 2024 - The State of Emerging Technologies w/ Salim Ismail | EP #115

Episode Date: August 16, 2024

In this episode, Salim and Peter dive into all news regarding AI, Bitcoin, robotics, and biotech, including Neuralink, Figure 02, AGI, and more.  Recorded on Aug 14th, 2024 Views are my own thoughts, not Financial, Medical, or Legal Advice. 19:20 | The Race for AI Dominance 44:27 | The Future of Jobs with AI 01:31:58 | Robots Take Over Workforce? Salim Ismail is a serial entrepreneur and technology strategist well known for his expertise in Exponential organizations. He is the Founding Executive Director of Singularity University and the founder and chairman of ExO Works and OpenExO.  Join Salim’s OpenExO Community Follow Salim on X: https://x.com/salimismail ____________ I only endorse products and services I personally use. To see what they are, please support this podcast by checking out our sponsors:  Get started with Fountain Life and become the CEO of your health: https://fountainlife.com/peter/ AI-powered precision diagnosis you NEED for a healthy gut: https://www.viome.com/peter  Reverse the age of your skin with Oneskin; 30% here: http://oneskin.co/PETER    _____________ Get my new Longevity Practices 2024 book: https://bit.ly/48Hv1j6  I send weekly emails with the latest insights and trends on today’s and tomorrow’s exponential technologies. Stay ahead of the curve, and sign up now: Tech Blog _____________ Connect With Peter: Twitter Instagram Youtube Moonshots

If you've got open AI versus Google versus China versus Anthropic, if there's a step function interpreted or intercepted by one of them, it's game over then. Again, disagree for my former reasons. If I could know anything or if I could predict anything, how would it impact my business? AI's and the super intelligence feels really powerful on the doing stuff, but the being is where all the future emanates from and where power comes from. People don't realize the fact that we're living in a time where the things we take for normal and for granted are truly god-like, you know, decades ago or centuries ago.

Completely. Welcome to Moonshots and a special episode of WTF is happening in tech this week. Myself and Saleem Ismail. Saleem, good to see you buddy. Good to be back. For those of you who don't know Saleem, he is one of the most extraordinary tech thinkers on the planet. I was head of innovation at Yahoo for their Brickhouse Innovation Labs.

Join me at Singularity University as our first president there has gone on to write a number of bestsellers including exponential organizations. I had the pleasure of co-authoring exponential organizations too with Saleem. He now heads OpenEXO. Saleem, before we jump in talking about AI, Bitcoin, robotics, all that stuff, where can people find you on social? Easiest places, absolutely MissMail, which is my Twitter handle or X handle. And secondly, OpenEXO.com, which is our global community of close to 40,000 enthusiasts, technologists, entrepreneurs, innovators, etc. So we think about how do you organize for this crazy future that's hurtling at us in

terms of institutional change and organizational change? You know, you said my ex-handle. That was pretty good. You almost said my Twitter handle. I know that. You know, it's funny because Elon put out a – I'm going to say a tweet. Put out a – what do you call it? You put out a – It's say a tweet put out a what do you call it you put out a it's a post I post okay you put out a post and he said should I

still call it X or should I call it Twitter and I I message back at him I said I need a verb I need a verb and a post is not a good verb and you know tweeting is a great verb so it is Elon, if you're listening, we need a better version of Xing. All right, let's jump in. We're going to be talking on this episode on what's been happening in the last few weeks in the subjects of AI, Bitcoin, robotics, and biotech and other cool stuff. Let's start with AI.

Wow. So here we go. The future of search. Is it GPT search or Google? I mean, Google's had an incredible, you know, global dominance for so long. What do you think about this, Liem? You know, there's, they've had massive dominance. When Microsoft integrated ChatGPT into Bing, it didn't make a dent.

I think it's incredible what Google has done. And there's an important point here. The courts just ruled Google a monopoly, and there's some rationale to that. But Eric Schmidt and others have said it's just a click away to use another search engine. So it's really by sheer Focus on user experience that they've become this amazing. I think the the way that Google is integrating GPT into you know Gemini results right at the top of the search whereas we'll keep it ahead I think it's a hard thing to break through that because they just have so much data and A-B testing around what Search results should look like etc. You know this this reminds me of the fact that the user interface is so extraordinary

Critical, right? So when Google, you know I mean listen you were at Yahoo and Yahoo was like this massively complex page and they were worried about everything was going and then Google Came out with just like a simple like box to type stuff into and It's really really hard it you know, can I give you a quick story from the Yahoo days? Yeah, sure You had this mail interface and Yahoo mail was like predominant for for many many years It turned out via AB testing if you move the send button by just a few pixels one way or the other, the usage dropped off pretty dramatically because users got habituated to that layout and it was really hard to change it. So you need a paradigm

shift change like the Google change to make a difference. Otherwise, you're stuck because you've trained your users in operating one way. The UI design changes were unbelievably difficult in incremental mode. Well, we've seen the same thing with, you know, frankly, ChatGPT became this very simple user interface, right? The functionality of ChatGPT was there before, but when they made it like just, you know, type at me, all of a sudden it took off to a million users. And this is that comment you always talk about the deceptive, right? That when you make a technology usable, it goes from deceptive to disruptive.

But let me ask you a question. When you need a piece of data, do you Google or do you go to chat GPT and ask the question there? These days I'm doing both. Just because the triangulation of that becomes, it's so easy to ask in both environments. But I do think that GPT search, GPT-4-0, whatever's coming next is taking a bite out of Google and we'll talk about that in just a little bit. Let's go to the next story for this week. Man, this was a big one. Why don't you kick this one off? And I'll play the video while we're talking over it.

Yeah, you know, it's hard to engage with this stuff. We're crossing the uncanny valley as they talk about it in this area. And it's very, very difficult to deal with this. Because we just, our human perceptions can't cope with what the AIs can generate now. Look at any of the modern games and you see it. You missed the point there though. This is a fake video. This is like fully generated and it's like it's you could not tell the difference between realistic and this generated video. So it fluxux with Laura and Gen 3 Alpha, again, this is just the beginning.

Important to note, we've been predicting this for a long time, right? What's the point at which the resolution of an AI-generated image exceeds the pixelation of the human eye? And we've now crossed that rubicon. And so how we navigate this future is going to be really, really crazy to tell. I love this one.

Here's again, we're using AI to bring anything to life. And let's take a look at this. I mean, you know, two years ago, someone looking at that would have assumed it was real, not too you assume, four or five years ago that it was real. And being able to bring, you know, Mozart to life here like this. I mean, the AI is taking a lot of liberty in in its translation. But holy cow, that's extraordinary. I bucket this with the previous slide, right? Like this, what we're going to now be able to do is so amazing.

I'm really looking forward to having real full-on conversations in video mode with Plato and Aristotle. And you had that at the abundance summit. I think that becomes, it actually opens up our history in a really powerful way, unlike anything we've ever seen before. the abundance summit, I think that becomes, it actually opens up our history in a really powerful way, unlike anything we've ever seen before. You know, one of the things that we're beginning to see is people bringing their loved ones back, right, those who have passed.

And I think we've talked about this before, and just if you're listening, if your mom and dad are still with you, your grandparents still with you, take a moment to go and record them on your iPhone, record their voice, sit them down for two or three hours, give them a glass of wine and get them to talk whimsically about their history, and you can train up an AI model that's gonna be with you for the next century. You know, I've gotta give kudos here to Rick Kurzweil, right, who 20 years ago has been

doing this for the last 30, 40 years, recording every scrap of data he could about his father and collecting it and aggregating it because he predicted that at some point we would be able to train AM models to do that and now we're there. My dad is just about 97 now and every time I see him – He's still with it mentally, right? He's like living alone, driving around. He shouldn't be doing any of that. Every time I'm with him now, I throw on a camera and I just record everything.

That's amazing. Because it's going to be incredibly powerful to bring back that. The only thing I haven't gotten to is how do you bring back the sheer wisdom that comes with that level of age and what he's seen? Well, I think the wisdom is going to come back for our grandkids from us if we ever consider why as they don't know by the sheer volume of the, you know, the ex-posts, I can't say the tweets we put out there, all the blogs we've written, all of that becomes sort of a compiled version of us. It does, but for the elder generation,

we have such little, you know, think of the black and white stills we have of our great grandparents, right? There's very little, can I tell you a super funny little story about my dad? Yeah, of course you can. I did one of my meeting of life sessions, right? And somebody in the audience said, hey, I really loved your talk,

fixing civilization, this TEDx talk I did. My dad's hand goes up, he goes, Can I heckle? I'm like, yeah, of course you can, you know, he was totally disagree with your talk. I'm like, what? Do you do not think we need to fix civilization? He goes, Yeah, of course we do. But it's not this fixing part. It's the civilization part. He goes, we've not civilized the world. We've materialized the world. Now we have to do the work to civilize the world. I totally lost the audience because I like your wisdom bomb from the elders. Boom. And it was a profound comment. I've been sitting with that for the last couple of years is a really powerful framing that we actually were apes with tools

operating in travel paradigms. And this is a nightmare for the future. Yeah. You know, the other comment comment along those lines and I've been, you know, I'm working on my next book, Age of Abundance with Stephen Kotler and our opening chapter is titled, Our Ancestors Would See Us as Gods. Right? And I mean I think people don't realize the fact that we're living in a time where the things we take for normal and for granted are truly godlike You know decades ago or centuries ago Completely, it's it's really incredible that you can video with anybody anywhere in the world pretty much for free. Yeah

Speaking about creating, you know live video imagery from conversation or whatever Artists win key ruling in ai copyright case writing live video imagery from conversation or whatever, artists win key ruling in AI copyright case. Thoughts? I have strong thoughts about this. This is the, you know, we talk about the transition from film photography to digital photography, right? When you go from a material substrate to a digital substrate and all of a sudden

the domain explodes because we can take billions of times more photographs for free. And we talk about breeding to digital biology is the same kind of analogy. Our old IP laws, our entire intellectual property framework doesn't work in a digital age because if you think about how a human being looks at a copyrighted work, they'll watch a bunch of film clips, a bunch of music videos, and then they'll create something and subconsciously use those same patterns. All AI is doing is accelerating that dramatically. It's tax that seems absurd. It's insane because you know an artist goes to the Louvre and is inspired by the work. I mean all they're doing is training their own neural net

in the same way that these AIs are training their neural nets. And so, like, you're going to say to somebody, I'm sorry, you were inspired by DaVinci, and you're copying him. This is totally the Luddite revolt, et cetera. Now, we don't know what the actual answer is, right? Yeah. The best answer may be what we've seen in music, where the

music stuff becomes table stakes and the live performances where people make all their money. And so something similar like that has to emerge in different artistic domains. Well, I'll give you an example. You know Bill Gross, the CEO of Idealab. Bill has a new company called ProRata.ai that I think has just been announced like this week. And what they're doing is they've built models that are able to go and search the body of existing work and then create statistical ties back

to a new generated piece of work. And the idea there is that if someone is making money off of something and they have copied or they've been using content out of EXO, out of our book, that there's some small amount of revenue that traces back to us. So it's very similar to the search models that have powered Google, for example.

Anyway, it's definitely a worthwhile endeavor. I don't know how you fully applied or enforce it, but it's worth doing. Let's see if it works. You know, I added this to our stack, AI and weather forecasting, because I'm still blown away by the power of massive data analytics that these models can take on. So the idea that the most accurate 10-day forecasts are now coming out of AI models, and of course that's what AI does, is it takes a seemingly massive amount of uncorrelated data and is able to make interpolations and extrapolations and

Where this is going for me is AI being able to predict earthquakes Being able to predict stock markets being able to predict a whole slew of different things All sorts of stuff and this has massive real-world implications. You may have heard me speak about the car washes in Buenos Aires Yeah, I remember that. 50% drop in revenues over a 20-year period just because we were better able to model when it's going to rain. I mean, you know it's going to rain, you don't wash your car. And that's just a huge impact on an industry. And the key there is you can be the smartest car wash owner in the world and you'll just never see that coming. And this is I think the orthogonal effect of technology on domain after domain after domain better or worse it's just going to change everything.

Well I think this is where as an entrepreneur you need to be looking at you know if I could know anything or if I could predict anything how would it impact my business, right? Whether you're in the fashion business or the car wash business or the, you know, the gardening business. If you're able to, that's the hard part is saying, what would I want to know? And if I could know that, how would it give me different economics, a different business model? Honestly, as you're saying this, a whole vector appears to me, right?

Which is you get an AI sophisticated enough and say, you go look through the different domains and figure out where you could make a massive economic impact and come back to me and we'll take out the best five. I mean, that's the whole idea of like, you know, the billion dollar, trillion dollar, you know, AI startup with one guy or gal and their dog and an AI is becoming a unicorn.

I mean, but that's cheating to just say, go make me money. Well, no, I don't believe it is. Every 20-year-old is out there doing exactly that. Yeah, but I think you should have at least a, you know, you should say, go make me money and something I care about or a big... Oh, but this becomes key, right? Now it comes back to you with 20 things how do you filter and you'll have to filter according to your MTP yeah and that's where things become really important I

mean that's one of the things that we that we pointed out in the exponential org work is that you have to begin with your massive transformative purpose your MTP that thing you care about I mean time just had the V con conference and Jay Shetty on stage apparently shouted it out and said the most important thing you can have is a massive transformative purpose nice good getting out that lexicon out there you know the times I have failed in a business have been when and this is on two occasions I know where I tried to go quick get money, like that will be a quick get rich quick scheme.

And the fact of the matter is if you don't care about it, every business is hard and you're gonna give up before, you know, it looks easy from a distance, the closer you get, you see all the pimples and wrinkles and problems and then you give up because you don't actually give a shit about it We should have a debate with Scott Galloway because he just put out a book saying you're following your passion is full utter bullshit You shouldn't do that follow where your talent is And I would look at that read this and I'm like I totally wanted to debate this obviously he's going for the attention there

I have it turns out I had a great talent for designing large-scale I read this and I'm like, I totally wanted to debate this. Obviously, he's going for the attention there. Turns out I had a great talent for designing large scale databases, enterprise databases. That is not where any interest of mine ever fell. And who the hell wants to spend your life doing that? All right, Meta releases the largest open model in history. There's this ongoing debate of open versus closed. All right, we've got hugging face. We've got meta, you know, even grok even Elon said we're going

to make grok open source. You know, I do believe that this is important for a whole slew of reasons. The question is, you know, we've got on the closed side of the equation, we've got Google and we've got Microsoft slash OpenAI. You know, can the open source models compete financially with closed source? Okay, I've got a bunch of thoughts here. I think there's a clear future coming out. The open source models are overtaking the closed source

models over time. So I think they're really an arms race where a closed source model gets to say GPT-4. You get to chat GPT-4, and they have a lead for a bit. But then the open source models catch up very quickly. And the whole domain just moves forward that much more quickly because of it. In the the end open always beats closed Yeah, that was one of Google's principles, which is why I'm kind of surprised they've gone closed and not open here

I think they've got so much under the hood and we'll talk a little bit more about that in a few slides that that they don't know how to open it up I think oh Metta's done it just be catch catch up and I gotta give huge kudos here to Mark and the entire team at Meta for doing this. They've gone really, they've done some amazing work at open sourcing AI models, it's pushing the boundaries for everybody, it's forcing the close guys to really push forward more quickly and open themselves up also. For sure. Your buddy Vitalik on super intelligence Shall I play the video then we'll chat about it. Yeah Yeah, he says here he argues that if one AI pulls out ahead During this period of super exponential growth that it's game over that AI wins

All right, let's play the video if you imagine, you know, like every AI growing exponentially than like whatever the existing different over that AI wins. if you have a step function, right? Then whoever first discovers like some magic leap, which could be discovery of nanotechnology, could be discovery of like something that increases compute by a factor of 100, could be some algorithmic improvements, would be able to just like immediately turn on that improvement and then they'd quickly expand, they'd quickly be able to find like all of the other possible improvements before anyone else

and then they'd take over everything, right? In an environment as kind of like unknown and unpredictable as that, like are you really actually going to get a bunch of courses that like roughly stay, you know, with inside of each other in the race? So it's game over at that point. First of all, is he an alien or what?

Well, you can see his brain literally trying to break out of his head, right? Vitalik is just one of the most magnificent is extraordinary intelligence is around I have a huge beef with this you do. Okay. Yeah, actually I go on my actually agree with him and I like it What's your case? Okay. Okay. Let me go on my little rant here. Yeah him and I like it. What's your beef? Okay, let me go on my little rant here. This happens to be across the board with folks in this like Mo Gadat, Bray Kurzweil, etc. When you think about intelligence, my beef is what the hell do you mean by intelligence? Because there's about a dozen facets of intelligence. The IQ test as we know it only measures two of them, the speed of thought processing and the ability to match a concept across multiple frameworks. We don't talk

about emotional intelligence or the Eastern concept or presence or awareness, we don't talk about linguistics intelligence, music intelligence, spatial intelligence, there's a whole bunch of factors and when you make a decision or choice as a leader you're bringing a lot of that thinking, a lot of those different facets to bear, intelligence, for example. So the beef I have here is please for God's sakes before you go talking about intelligence, define what you mean by it and have the courage to define it as, you know, when I'm speaking to someone who is intelligent, their ability to drive arguments, to be able to speak in a compelling fashion, in a knowledgeable fashion about a subject and win an argument, or on another side, being able to go bring a body of knowledge to drive and extrapolateolate into new breakthrough any of these things. I mean human intelligence and all of its richness

You know, I agree with these guys that we're gonna reach that with with digital intelligence If not next year in the next three or four years now the question becomes super intelligence is You know as you know, Elon was saying it on stage at the Abundance Summit this year, you know, his prediction is by 2029-2030, AI is of equal intelligence to the entire human race. Now, I mean, we've talked about this, Saleem, since the early days of Singularity University, where, you know, exponential growth, you know, what happens when AI is a billion times more intelligent across all dimensions? But hold on.

What? Think about, I'll give you this simple framing, right? Okay. You're looking to hire somebody and they, your gut is saying don't, something's wrong, don't hire them. Okay? Okay. And there's some signal to noise ratio or some pattern or detection pheromones, God knows what, where something is not clicking

and you kind of go with your gut. And we know what the value is of that choice-making. You know, Google did a study looking at video clips of an interviewee and the interviewer and they built a model to predict whether the person would get hired. Of course. And how much time did they require of the video interview to make the decision of we're gonna hire or not hire. Do you remember that number? Yeah it was like a few seconds. Yeah it was like under 30 seconds. The first 30

seconds determines everything. So there's a lot of data that's not... But do you think an AI can't pick that data up? The problem comes in replicating that core function. Now also let's also note that a simple AI hiring algorithm beats a human hiring manager by 25 percent, right? That's again coming from Google. Because if I'm interviewing people subconsciously, I'm gonna interview and hire a middle-aged Indian ball guy. Because I think that's the best people in the world.

Not necessarily true. Yeah, our cognitive biases really suck. Right, so you don't know, but there's so many different levels at which we're, I did a Tom Bily You podcast a few weeks ago and I talked about this. We have our soul intelligence, we have our emotional and subconscious intelligence,

then we have our cognitive and rational intelligence, right? And we use all of that to make deep choices and decisions about the world. AI is right now coming from the top down, we still have no understanding of how we make choices at all. Evolutionary survival bias is the only way coming from the top down, we still have no understanding of how we make choices at all. Evolutionary survival bias is the only way we've gotten to where we are and we have

no idea how we've gotten here. So I think there's a big, big beef around this. And remember at the abundance summit, I asked Ray specifically, what do you mean by intelligence? And he goes, oh, my phone makes me smarter, therefore that's what we mean by it. And that's valid, but a complete sidestep of the question. I would love to have a deeper, like I'd love to get all these guys together and challenge them with this framing and say,

guys, let's talk about what do we mean by this? Because your emotional intelligence has a huge bearing on your success as a leader in the future. That's not mimicked or modeled at all anywhere. All right, we missed, we sidestepped the entire point Vitalik was making though, which is in a superintelligence race, right? If you've got open AI versus Google versus China versus Anthropic, whatever, if one of them, if there's a step function interpreted or intercepted by one of them, it's game over then. It tips instantly in favor of that other individual.

Again, disagree for my former reasons. Look, let me take another tack at this. A human being can operate in two modalities, doing versus being, okay? And doing is like getting out there and getting stuff done, and being is just sitting with yourself and being. Both are needed for success as a human being. And AIs and the super intelligence feels really powerful on the doing stuff, but the being is where all the future emanates from and where power comes from. And again, I'm going to like Eastern metaphysics here, but there's a lot more to talk about

than just that. All right. Well, let's talk about this one. So we've been hearing about Project Strawberry for some time. It is, you know, Sam Alman starts tweeting pictures of strawberry fields. And so we're expecting a release of Strawberry by the way Which had previously been called Q star and if you remember when when Sam was fired by The board and just a small factoid one of the board members who fired Sam

I wouldn't say the name but was a SU graduate from our first our first class I wouldn't say the name, but was a SU graduate from our first class. Anyway, so Q-Star was like, oh my God, did they have AGI? There was all these rumors floating around. But Project Strawberry, thoughts, Salim? Okay, counter to my previous point, I'm incredibly excited about this, right? Why? Because machine learning, just basic machine learning, finds signal from noise that a human being can't possibly see. So when you

take all of the research papers, thousands and thousands of millions of them published and pass it through an AI, the ability to see something and detect and figure out the future is going to be unbelievably powerful. I think for me as a former physicist, I think we'll find entirely new physics that we couldn't discover as human beings and solve the entanglement problem and ramification theory and stuff. Once a physicist, always a physicist. Are you really a former physicist? Do you not think about things? I'm just a bad physicist in the class a different color former Just like you with with the MD MD. Yeah. Yeah do never come to me for anything else

You know, I do a two-for-one appendix removal. I'll take your both your pentecost out So, you know, I think the idea of agents being able you know, when you ask a question of agents being able, you know, when you ask a question of Google 40 or whatever it becomes, I'm sorry, Google 40, great, GPT 40, whatever is next, and it can spin up a multitude of agents to go do a bunch of research in a bunch of different areas and then come back with a consolidated answer. That is a big deal. It's a big deal and Eric Schmidt talked about this now. I think we're gonna cover that the there it's unbelievable I hate the term a gentic AI. I just why I think that was pretty cool

I mean, it sounds like a drug to look I have to look it up the first time Yeah, why not just say agent-based You know anyway, that's just that's just my biases or whatever. Real quick, I've been getting the most unusual compliments lately on my skin. Truth is, I use a lotion every morning and every night religiously called One Skin. It was developed by four PhD women who determined a 10 amino acid sequence that is a synolytic that kills senile cells in your skin. And this literally reverses the age of your skin.

And I think it's one of the most incredible products. I use it all the time. If you're interested, check out the show notes. I've asked my team to link to it below. All right, let's get back to the episode. So this is from the co-founder of Zapier. It says, AI language models have stalled in the progress of AGI and increasing scale will not help what is inherently limited technology. I'm not going to play the video here, but there is a lot of conversation around will we get to AGI, right?

This is almost all these things become religious in one standpoint. There's a group of folks who say, no, we're not going to get there. Listen, the NVIDIA chips, the GPUs, and the current large language models, generative AI, and the amount of data just isn't enough. And others are like, are you kidding me? We're already there. I have a little insight that we did that I'd love to talk about here.

Okay. I'd love to hear. So I did a little short conversation with Hod Lipson, who's an AI researcher, has a lab at Columbia where they build self-assembling robots with recursive algorithms to figure out how robots can self-improve and survive and build in survival bias etc. into the robots and he did something really profound and he has an angle to this and I think really is the most in-depth and clear that I've ever seen around the question of AGI and he basically said the self-extent of self-awareness of any being is the ability to view itself in the future. Like you and I are pretty good at knowing, thinking what we might look like in five years or what life might be like in five years.

And we can contemplate that. A mosquito can't do that, right? A dog can do it for like a few hours type of thing. So, I mean, like a dog can do it because it's anticipating a walk or dinner. Yeah, it has some concept of modeling itself into the future. In the near future, yeah. In the near future, in that case,

we can look out years, right? Sure, we can in like, centuries. And so he basically used that vector and he went to Gemini and Chachi PT and said, how would you view yourself in a few years? And apparently the question was shut down completely by the AI. There are guardrails that have been put into these AI models

that essentially forbid the AI from picturing itself in the future or in the past. And he thinks this is deliberate, that whole vector where AI seem to become sentient and freaked out all the AI researchers and they shut it down, or this may be what happened at ChachiP GPT and now they've put guardrails and you can't ask the question. So Go try that out. Of course, I'm gonna go do that as soon as we finish

It's a really fascinating thing to think about is that once you open up that and somebody will because once you have the open-source Models you can load it up and ask whatever question you want. Once you get to that and an AI can perceive itself or create a model of itself in the future, Hod's conclusion is that self-awareness comes very rapidly after that and a sense of self emerges very quickly. That combined with massive access to computation and information changed the game completely. So there's something really incredibly powerful that we should delve a lot more into. I love that idea.

So it is true, just going back to this, it is true that the AGI models, AI models and LLMs have kind of stalled. But I think this is normal. I remember that conversation I had with Geoffrey Hinton back in 2017 and asked him what's the next steps in AI? And he said we've reached the end of what we can do with deep learning We need the next step and I we don't know what that is and literally a few months later the transformer paper was released I think we've now kind of seven eight years later come to the Limitations and the boundary conditions for LLMs and now we're gonna go to the next level and again We don't know what that is, but it's being birthed right now I suspect. Eric Schmidt, love

the man, he's amazing, he's been an incredible benefactor of the XPRIZE and he's a very expansive thinker. In the news this week a couple of comments that he's made, one about AI models and one about whether Google is losing the race with OpenAI and why. Let's talk about the what he said this this week about what's coming up next year. Salim, why don't you cover that one? I'll cover the Google OpenAI race. Yeah, you know, when you look at how evolution works, right, you take half your genes from your mother and half your genes from your father and you cross it and then survival bias and natural selection will pick the best traits going forward.

And I think what's happening here is we've developed these different threads in AI. In the case of Eric, he says we using the term loosely, and now you combine them, the potential outputs and the outcomes will be really powerful, incredibly powerful. And I think I'm incredibly excited where AI goes with this. Yeah, I mean, what could possibly go wrong? I mean, so large context windows, I mean, just to dive into each of those elements here,

we're talking about loading you know, loading in books and ultimately libraries, movies, everything, and having, you know, so one of the future versions of AIs are AIs on your employee team, right? So you can imagine having AI agent who steps in for marketing or design design, or tech. And it reads every email ever written inside your organization. It reads every Slack channel.

And so on day one, that AI employee knows everything and is able to hold all of that in context. That's incredible. So for me, this becomes like the the slide rule to Excel spreadsheet shift. Right. Every single employee, every single manager will have access to multiple agents that has access and can look at all the information in a firm collectively. And we'll just become better decision-making

engines again in one vector. But I think this is huge. The potential here is unbelievable. And then text to action is the fact that we're, you know, AIs don't live in full isolation. There is a point now where you can say to your AI, cook me dinner, go and find this information, go physically, clean this thing. I mean, especially, we'll talk about robots in a little bit, where robots become physical extensions

of AIs in the world. The ability for AIs to have agentic capabilities. I know you love that word. Well, I think once you have an AI that can program, which we crossed that Rubicon with GPT 3 and 4, you essentially have the ability for any AI to impact the real world. Because so many of our devices are programmable devices,

and we're essentially turning the world into information, which can then be programmed. And therefore we've crossed that divide and now an AI has true agency in terms of what it can achieve in the physical world. There's a really important other piece of just to go here relating back to the other one, which is that when we talk about intelligence,

it turns out that the evolution of intelligence was almost completely the adaptive need to navigate in the physical world. And so again, let's cover that more in the robotics part, but that's a huge rationale for why evolution created intelligence in the neural cortex that functions in the first place. Alright, let's talk about the second one, Google losing OpenAI. I've got to imagine that at the executive conversations at Google, they're like, WTF is going on here?

How did we possibly get into this situation? Well, here's what Eric thinks made them second tier to OpenAI in some areas. Google decided that work-life balance and going home early and working from home was more important than winning. And the start-ups, the reason start-ups work, is because the people work like hell. And I'm sorry to be so blunt. But the fact of the matter is if you all leave the university and go

found a company, you're not gonna let people work from home and only come in one day a week. Wow, pretty damn spot-on and ballsy of Eric to say that. And I, listen, I know this is okay maybe we're gonna disagree on this right because in the whole exo model You know, it's like just distributed and all those benefits But listen the companies that i've seen i've invested in the companies I built when you're there In the thick of it physically all together Seven days a week. You got to believe, you know, I just went and visited

Zipline and I just did a podcast with the CEO of Zipline. And when I was physically there, the energy right of, you know, hundreds of people like literally crammed into this office with dashboards up on the walls. You don't get that virtually. You don't get that kind of energy that kind of drive I mean, it's a new organism that comes out when I was at figure With Brett adcock, you know, the team is there, you know 7 a.m. To 9 p.m Every day just and they are excited about what they're building. I

Don't know work from home You know, work from home? Yeah, okay. I think there's two different topics that he's conflating here. And I take the very, very big risk of disagreeing with Eric, which is one who was one of the smartest and wisest people in the world. I think the work from home versus physical presence does have a factor. And I totally agree with you there, right? There's an energy that comes from, like, for example, we just had a massive win

at OpenEXO and I can't I can't high-five anybody around me and there's a big loss from that that connection, that human connection. Goes straight back to the comment we just had around human beings and being physically in the mode. You know, for years we thought virtual conferences would take over real conferences, but people love the scarcity of the human connection, and in-person conferences are more popular than ever. So I completely get the in-person versus remote work and the difference there. I disagree that that's the reason that OpenAI is beating Google.

I'll take you back to Facebook okay Facebook beat Yahoo and myspace and Google etc with a very simple organizational heuristic which was Zuckerberg said to his developers if you think your code is ready to ship just go live on the live site you better make sure you've tested the hell out of it. But then the developers had this unbelievable sense of empowerment and they were like, wow, the trust he trusts us with this. Amazing. And they were putting out features ten times faster than Yahoo or MySpace or Google. Okay. It comes down to organizational design. The

fact that in Google, if you talk to Google employees today to try and get anything done, there's so much bureaucracy it's taking forever to do. That's the thing that's slowing it down. I think he's conflating those two things. Operating in a big company today means you have these control framework layers, etc. And I've got all sorts of war stories from Yahoo about this. The reason Yahoo failed is Terry Semmel by accident put in a classic matrix structure and managed the company. And that structure is great for scaling and

control but it's terrible for taking risk and it's terrible for speed. And if you're on the consumer internet, the two attributes you better have are speed and risk. You look at Google and how much investment they put into Google Plus. They had all the world's top researchers. The product is absolutely brilliant, but all the internal hurdles of having to navigate should it connect with the YouTube ID system and whatever. Basically by the time they got through all of that, Facebook was gone. And so this is the issue, I think, is the internal organizational design much, much

more so than whether people are coming in day work. I do agree with you there, right? Agility always wins. We've studied this to death in the EXO model, right? And I'll just clear out this little quick plug here. We studied the Fortune 100 and said, okay, how many of these use the EXO model or the attributes of the model, like autonomous teams, community dashboards, whatever. And we found that in the Fortune 100, over a seven-year period, the companies that followed the model the most

delivered 40 times the shareholder returns of the companies that followed the model the least. So really it comes down to the organizational design as a main heuristic for survival in the future. And this is where companies will end up following this structure because we now have so much proof the more of the model you use the better you'll do. So I think without realizing it Eric is commenting on the organizational structure of Google versus OpenAI being

comprised of small teams that are just doing whatever the hell they want. And the sad thing of course, you know, we and I discussed this with Eric when when he was with us at at Abundance last year at the Abundance Summit was that Google had a massive lead, right, in AI ahead of everybody and was actually being respectful and careful and not putting it out before it was fully tested. And then when Sam Altman put out chat GPT, it was like, okay, gloves are off, put on the racing sneakers, let's go. And to give them full credit,

they've responded incredibly well. Gemini is amazing what it can do. Yeah, I mean, I don't want to take anything away from Google. They are the juggernaut. I would still never bet against them but they've got real competition. It's the curse of being a big company. The control frameworks you have to put in place prevent you from being nimble and today the name of the game is being nimble. For sure. Let's talk about this. So our friend Imad Mustak, previously CEO of Open, of OpenAI, of Stability, puts out a paper called How to Think About AI and I did a podcast with him. I think Imad is pretty damn brilliant. And it's a great paper.

We'll put the link in the show notes to this podcast that I think people should should read. You know, I'm just going to point out a few things. He is still a believer that AI is going to be creating as many or more jobs than it's going to steal. He talks about one of the ideas that was discussed on the stage at Abundance last year of this AI Atlantis. Imagining New Continent is created of 100 million AI researchers who work for a few electrons versus pizzas under the door and your ability to get access to intelligence and use it is demonetizing and democratizing around the world. I know

you had a chance to look at this a little bit. Any comments about what Imad's thoughts are here? I'm in total accordance with almost everything that Imad said. I've been on the soapbox of AIs won't take all the jobs. I'm very clear about that. I finally have a decent rationale around that, by the way. I'd like to hear that. So I was on part of a kind of a working group with Eric Brynjolfsson and a few others on I was on part of a kind of a working group with Eric Brynjolfsson and a few others on AI and employment, right? And there was a really powerful framing that I've not forgotten. And they said, look, a job is not just a job. If you're like a customer service person, it actually, you take that, let's say you're a financial advisor, okay? There's different components of

that job that can be broken down to a set of actual tasks. And the tasks would be interfaced with the customer, do some research, make investment decisions and act out on those investment decisions, etc. Well, an AI to say the 27 tasks that go into being a financial advisor might automate like 10 of them, but it doesn't automate the rest of them. And so what happens is a job doesn't, you don't lose the job, you lose the tasks. You automate the task, which makes you more powerful and you spend more time on the other areas, which is human interaction and thinking about the future, etc. And therefore, the reason AIs don't take all the jobs, they're not covering the job, they're covering one specific task or other.

Even AGI only covers specific areas. It'll increase, but more and more, that's why you will have amplified jobs, not radical job loss, except for the areas where you're doing one thing at a time. If you were in the Industrial Revolution, a human widget stamping out things on the assembly line, that job went away because it was one thing. So that's my, that I found was the best framing I've seen for why AIs won't take up all the jobs. So listen, I do think that is the case today that AIs can do 80% but not a hundred percent of a job and therefore they're freeing up people and humans do

the whole job with the support of AIs but I have a hundred percent confidence that AIs will get to a point where they can do a hundred percent of the job and from everything I've seen, what I used to think would be the holdout of humanity, that interpersonal relationship, the ability to be compassionate and understanding and patient and that human connection. Holy shit, I've seen AIs do a much better job on that than humans. Agree. Agree. But I think there's, I'll take you back to the autonomous driving conversation, right? Okay. We had autonomous cars since the Google car in 2008.

And we confidently predicted that in a decade, you'd have more than 20% penetration of autonomous cars out in the world, etc. you'd have more than 20% penetration of autonomous cars. It's been slow. Et cetera. And the answer, the reason is that even in an autonomous car, those little edge cases of a bicyclist overtaking another bicyclist and now you have to kind of go wider because of that or just avoiding potholes, we can't do, there's all these edge cases that we can't cover 100% of because human beings are so good at adaptive physical intelligence that a human robot driver can't cover all of that and is very far away from that and

therefore we're very far away from that domain. I think we're gonna end up with the same paradigm around this. However, to your point, I think what we'll do is reframe what we mean by a job so that A.S. can take more and more of it and therefore the human being get squeezed over time There's a lot. I really commend this paper to everybody You could listen to my podcast with E mod on this subject But if you haven't yet go and and you might tweeted the whole paper on his thing So at E mod if you want to go check it out. Yeah

For for sure You have to read it like four times to get your head around it. But it's beautifully written. It's beautifully written. All right, last subject on AI before we go to other fun subjects like Neuralink and robots. I added this because I think one of the conversations that's not sufficiently being discussed is the power requirements of AI. So today, the US is generating about four terawatt hours per year of energy. And if you look at energy, I should have put the chart on

here, but if you look at energy historically of the last 20 years and our current predicted growth in energy, it's pretty flat. The US is not adding more capacity at the rate that it should be. China, on the other side of the equation, has blown through the US. It's like tripled its total capacity on its way

to quadrupling its total capacity. India has been increasing and doubling. And there is an estimate that by 2030, AI is going to require 100% of today's US energy grid production. AI is a very hungry beast. And so we're gonna need some new sources of energy. And the reason I added this is I think,

you know, generation for nuclear is one of the most important technologies that's being held back by public opinion and regulation. I think it's super safe. And so China demonstrates first entirely meltdown proof nuclear reactor. That's incredible. It's like, why not have nuclear energy? We're going to have fusion eventually got it and solar is on the increase.

But Gen 4 nuclear that is fail safe, meaning when it's fail, when it fails, it's safely contained. I put this in my backyard. How about you? What are your thoughts here? I completely agree. I think the whole small nuclear and milkproof nuclear is the future. To cover the baseload until we generate enough battery storage, there where solar can take over and other things. I think what I find powerful framing here is the same conversation that's happened in Bitcoin, where people go, oh my God, Bitcoin consumes the energy that Portugal uses, and therefore we should shut it down. And what's happening is we're finding all sorts of, like for example,

if you have a hydroelectric dam in the far north of Quebec, it takes so long for the transmission thing. You've lost the energy by the time you get it done, you are useful. Therefore, the hydroelectric dams, it's empty. However, now you can put a Bitcoin facility next to it and essentially turn that energy into something useful. And about six months ago, we crossed 50% Bitcoin mining by renewables. And the next marginal 50% will be just the next chunk will be all renewables. I think the same thing happened with AI. We'll start putting AI data centers in the far reaches of wherever there will be. Yeah, a month ago, I was in There's a there's a valley in the east of Kazakhstan with the wind just flows and they put a gigawatt wind farm there

It's so far. It's not that useful for anything but an AI data center and a Bitcoin mining thing beautiful So I think the when we think about the fact that we have what? 8,000 times more energy hitting the earth than we use We'll just start tapping into that to do all this and power all the other stuff. So I don't worry about energy at all. Well, I worry about it in the US. If it becomes the limiting factor for the US being able to stay ahead in the energy and the AI race, I also worry about it where if it's easier for large companies to build coal plants or natural gas plants because they're not going

to stop, right? This is an all out AI war and in Microsoft and Google and Meta, they're all going to be just buying as much energy as they possibly can. And if the answer because of regulation and because of ease of paperwork is you know god forbid carbon producing then you got a problem. I think the way the root commentary you're making is the the regulators in the US need to take a very bold move here. Wake up regulators.

I think I think that's absolutely correct. Everybody want to take a short break from our episode to talk about a company that's very important to me and could actually save your life or the life of someone that you love. The company is called Fountain Life. It's a company I started years ago with Tony Robbins and a group of very talented physicians. Most of us don't actually know what's going on inside our body. We're all optimists. Until that day when you have a pain in your side, you go to the physician in the emergency room and they say, listen, I'm sorry to tell you this, but you have this stage three or four going on. And you know, it didn't

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It's one of the most important things I can offer to you as one of my listeners. All right, let's go back to our episode. All right, let's go to one of our favorite subjects in yours, Bitcoin news. You know, do you still, I mean, listen, I remember you and I are on stage at an X Prize event a few months ago and like every other word was like buy Bitcoin, buy Bitcoin. Now, we're not giving financial advice, but buy Bitcoin. Now we're not giving financial advice, but buy Bitcoin

This one Morgan Stanley tells wealth advisors they can pitch Bitcoin ETFs in a first for a bank big bank Fascinating right? I wanted my mom who's 88. Hi mom. Good to see you She watches our podcast here and I said like, you know, go tell your your You know investment advisor to buy this ETF I mean ETFs were made so that it's super easy to own Bitcoin and back when we were talking about this I don't know when it was when I was talking to her about this eight months ago it was like no we can't we can't sell you that and like huh that huh? That's so strange. Now it's going to be pushed. Thoughts?

Totally agree. I gave a talk to one of the biggest financial planning groups in the world that has about 10,000 financial advisors. I was like, so what's your Bitcoin strategy? And they're like, oh, we don't allow our financial advisors to talk about Bitcoin to their clients at all. And the financial advisors are like, are you kidding? Our clients are asking us about Bitcoin and we're not allowed to answer, you're killing us. Why? Because the regulatory risk they have of they're worried that if somebody

gives financial advice on Bitcoin and it's not an approved method of any kind by whatever, they face legal exposure. So they've shut down that conversation. Again, going back to mindset and regulatory, similarly to the nuclear conversation, I think there's an underlying driver here that just makes this inexorable, which is the fact that Jeff Booth's observation that he wrote a book called The Price of Tomorrow that you should all go read. And in the book, he basically shows that over the last 50 years every dollar increase in global GDP has come from with a four dollar increase in global debt so we're growing the global economy with a lot and you can't it's structural you can't pay it back you can't just write it off so that does not

end well it does not end well and look at the debt in the US right now we're creating a trillion dollars of debt every hundred days or so. And we're now paying more interest on the US debt than the US spends on its military. That is a pretty ridiculous comment. And it's not slowing down. There's no mechanism. This is the problem with our democracies. There's no mechanism to look down the line and go, hey, we got to stop doing this. And so this is a huge issue across parties and nobody's looking at it. You don't hear it mentioned in the political debates at all. And this is a massive problem. The escape hatch between that world and the ETFs connecting to Bitcoin now gives a kind of an atomic bomb lifeline and a shelter where

people can escape through that into the Bitcoin world, which is why we're also optimistic about Bitcoin. The recent drop, by the way, for people that are tracking it, there was a huge drop. It turned out Germany sold a massive chunk at the same time that Mt. Gox was paying back a bunch of their folks. And so a huge amount of Bitcoin got liquidated. This is the best buying opportunity ever.

I remember Michael Saylor's comment that you get Bitcoin at the price you deserve. And Salim, you know, I want to give you credit here remember you at our Singularity executive program 2012 Thereabouts you're on stage to the to the room You know I just gotten off talking about six DS or whatever and you step on you say have you heard about this thing called Bitcoin? And you start talking about Bitcoin click. What the hell is this? Bitcoin, you start talking about Bitcoin. I'm going what the hell is this Bitcoin thing? You know we have it's important to look back at the history here just for a second. When Bitcoin came out in 2009 a lot of people kind of just

ignored it even though they were deeply excited about digital currencies. Why? Because there had been so many attempts in the past that it failed. Right? Yeah. And so, everybody watched for a while, myself included. I've watched Bitcoin go from five cents of Bitcoin to 50 cents of Bitcoin to five dollars of Bitcoin to 50 dollars of Bitcoin. And how much higher could it possibly go? Yeah. And then at $500 Bitcoin, it's a hard emotional choice to make when you knew it was five cents

of Bitcoin. That's a really big thing to cross. And I remember finally buying a few at that level. There are two types of people that come up to me from those days. The ones that listened and bought Bitcoin and they're hugely grateful and the ones are like should I wish I'd listened and bought Bitcoin. It was completely binary around that. So I think this is just one of around that. So I think there's there's This is just one of those things where you I think the way michael sailor put it was really best He said go spend a hundred hours researching bitcoin And then if you don't like it come back to me with some salient points and we'll have a conversation

Yeah, so and nobody does you know, it's interesting. I look at one of my largest holdings You know, it's interesting. I look at one of my largest holdings if not the largest Holding outside of real estate is is Bitcoin and so when it drops from $70,000 to $50,000 You know first reaction of the amygdala and the animal brain is holy shit run and hide right and yeah And there's got to be a judo move here for those who are Bitcoin believers to say oh my god time to buy right, and so sailor is there and You know, I think I'm there at this point too

You know, I was a great there's a great meme Of a cartoon where someone said, you know dad was it true that Bitcoin was below $100,000 in your day? You know, that's wonderful. Yeah, I actually look forward with glee when it drops because I'm thinking I could buy some more. I just hope any spare cash would do that, but I do get this burst of, oh my god, I wish I could buy some more. So the big news here has been a conversation by at least two of the three presidential candidates about the idea of holding Bitcoin in treasury of the United States, let alone what MicroStrategy is doing, is putting Bitcoin in treasury for its stock, which has played incredibly well,

right? MicroStrategy is one of the top performing stocks in the S&P Do you know so we've talked about this right there's six DS, you know when you digitize something it's deceptive and then disruptive it dematerializes demonetizes democratizes and The phases of Bitcoin it went from the early entrepreneur to high-end entrepreneurs to institutions. And will we see governments? So what's your prediction on when a... We're seeing governments right now, but when the US might do this? I think...

I don't know about the US just because the US dollar is so fundamentally important to US hegemony around the world that making a major move in Bitcoin would have a huge impact on the dollar. Maybe stabilizing it. Maybe people have confidence that I think it's one powerful way for the US to deal with its debt is to just hedge it. But if I was the US, I'd do it quietly and not talk about it because that's what I think is happening right now. I think what's happening is you have to recognize that after MicroStrategy and after El Salvador took on Bitcoin as its reserve currency, that every CFO in the world of a public company and every sovereign wealth fund is looking at this going, huh, I need to

be thinking that taking down to account. And for those of us that are bullish on Bitcoin, if 1% of the Fortune 1000 put 1% of their treasury into Bitcoin, that would make it the same price of as a price of gold, which is roughly a million dollars a Bitcoin. So if you do the math, the more the adoption takes place and note that in 15 years now people have not figured out a way of hacking Bitcoin, right? The Satoshi wallet has 60 billion dollars worth of Bitcoin and you got to see that you think there's a lot of people trying to get into that wallet and nobody's managed it.

Yeah, there's, you know, it's the greatest treasure hunt ever I don't think it's any technology risk and I am you know At 99.99 percent surety, but the only question becomes is their political risk, right? I remember having a conversation with an a Minister from a foreign nation having dinner with I wouldn wouldn't say who, was and they're like, your government really wants to shut down Bitcoin. I mean, in terms of this current administration, right? So, Gensler and all of that.

I won't talk more about it, but... I can answer that very easily. Please. It goes back to if you shut down Bitcoin, you know, when I send you Bitcoin, I'm sending you a string of text and numbers. How you interpret that string of text and numbers is up to you. So it turns out in the US specifically Bitcoin is protected by First Amendment. There's a strong legal case around this. There's a great anecdote around PGP if you know that story.

Should I recount that for folks? Up to you. It's really important one. Especially if you think about Bitcoin in the US. So, pretty good privacy was an email encryption that was invented in the late 90s, if I remember right. And the US Department of Defense desperately tried to stop the propagation of PGP into the world because then they wouldn't be able to read emails globally, which of course they wanted to do. And the PGP creators were like, well, everybody should have this.

Why should it just be restricted to this? So the DOD put a full restriction saying ITAR regulations, you are absolutely forbidden to export this. So they looked at this and said, huh, okay, what do we do? So what they did was they printed the source code for PGP onto paper, faxed it to the UK, which then OCR'd the code and were able to recreate Bitcoin.

Department of Defense took them to court and the court said, first amendment, pal, you can't stop people from extracting the opinion. So there's a really strong precedent on first amendment and then property rights. Anywhere that has property rights, you cannot stop Bitcoin from propagating. So there's some very compelling arguments to especially in the u.s But globally anywhere where you have property rights of any reasonable level you won't be able to stop it Do you want to slow it down? Yeah on ramps off ramps, etc, but they're not gonna be able to stop I just did a a great another podcast with both of Bill Barheight head of ABRA

great another podcast with Bill Barheight, head of Abra, which again people go listen to it. That's where I hold my Bitcoin. Where do you hold your Bitcoin right now? I do self-custodial on a stick and a few other metrics. Do you pucker really hard when you pull out that stick to go and do something with it? Well it's really what you do with the keywords and how do you secure those because the stick is the thing. But, you know, this is what the great thing about capitalism, right? Safe custodial models like ABRA will appear and people move to a swan is another one that's really good at this. So there'll be a whole bunch of this. So much economic incentive for helping people with that problem. The equivalent of a digital bank safety deposit box is a really powerful one.

Do you want to give your non-financial advice that you gave at XPRIZE here? Which was? Oh, non-financial advice would be take 10% of your net worth at the minimum and put it into Bitcoin and close your eyes for 10 years, if you can. Is it true that you pulled out a mortgage on your house and bought Bitcoin? Well, we sold a house and my condition with Lily to selling the house, I wanted to be able to put a big chunk of that into Bitcoin. So Bitcoin is almost about the equivalent of my real estate holdings.

Yeah. All right. I'm excited for us to keep this conversation in future months. Let's talk about Neuralink news. Elon has his second implant and talks about human AI comps. And this is one of the conversations that took place a little bit at Abundance the past year And this is one of the conversations that took place a little bit at abundance the past year is about the idea that if AI and humans are going to link up or will AI take off without humans. Let's listen to Elon for a moment. The long-term aspiration of Neuralink is to Neuralink is to improve the AI human symbiosis by increasing the bandwidth of the communication. Because if even if in the most benign scenario of AI, you have

to consider that the AI is simply going to get bored, waiting for you to spit out a few words. I mean, if the AI can communicate at terabits per second and you're communicating at bits per second, it's like towing a tree. Okay, so first of all, if we can communicate at kilobits per second or megabits per second and it's communicating at terabits per second,

it's still gonna get bored. Do you remember the movie Her? I just rewatched it. And there's a point at which the star of the movie is talking to his AI, and he finally gets the idea that it's not a monogamous relationship. And he goes, how many people are you talking to right now? And she goes, 8,736 or something like that.

And I find that fascinating. Well, this is the whole bandwidth issue, right? I think that movie, if you haven't watched the movie Her, H-E-R, please do go watch it. It's probably the best framing we've seen on the realistic outcome of AI. Because Hollywood tends to always portray it as the Matrix, the Terminator, the whatever, and the robot overlords trick over the world.

And if you're lucky, you're pets. And if we're unlucky, we're food. It always goes that way. But the reality is much more likely that an AI evolves so quickly past us, they look at us as ants and go, you know, your little one-liter brain in your head, Vitalik accepted, is not just not interesting enough to talk to. I'm talking to millions of AIs in parallel in the cloud. And it takes off. It goes, have a nice life. And just, have a nice life. Thanks for all the fish. Thanks for all the fish. And I think that's the most

likely outcome, which I'm kind of okay with. You know, if that's the progression of life, that's kind of okay. But I think what Elon is doing around this is really, really important and the next conversation around bandwidth is critical. Yeah, I mean, right now we communicate when you and I are speaking. What is it, bits per second? Is it? Bits per second, BPS. Yeah, no, no, no, but is it 40 bits per second? It's like in single digits. I mean-

Four bits per second. Yeah, it's not a lot. And you think about the megabits and gigabits that we have on our networks. There's no comparison. Yeah, so here we go. Think about this, you're typing on a keyboard, right? I mean, it's literally, that's about as fast as we can do it.

There's not a lot of bits per second. And it's shockingly slow. Let's hear Elon about making it faster. In years, it's going to be gigantic, because we'll increase the number of electrodes dramatically. We'll improve the signal processing. So we with with even with only roughly 10 15% of the electrodes working with, with Nolan to with our first patient, we're able to get

to achieve a bit per second. that's twice the world record. So I think we'll start like vastly exceeding the world record by orders of magnitude in the years to come. So it's like getting to, I don't know, a hundred bits per second, thousand, you know, maybe if it's like five years from now, we might be at a megabit. Like faster than any human could possibly communicate

by typing or speaking. Obviously, if we I find that compelling, right? I mean, I want as much as possible. So let me ask you the question here, Salim. They open up neural links to the general public. Are you are you like, get me one baby as soon as possible no you're not no I'll tell you why so I go back to the so I'll tell you why I'm incredibly excited about this and I'm why I'm like okay okay come on

let's I mean you don't have to shave your head they could just go straight in the the USB port on the side of the head is, you know, that's that kind of old dream. I think the reason that it requires physical intervention is a tough one because our phones evolve much faster than any implant would evolve if you put it in, right? So there's that. You'd have to have this deep thing going into your brain, which is fine once it gets to, I just don't want to be the first test subject in that in that model but I didn't say test subject I said it's you know the FDA has approved it it's

commercially available now are you gonna get one I I would wait a little I'm always weirdly I'm a late adopter new hack new technologies I'm always to two phones behind everybody else just because I'm I use it so materially that I can't afford to be at the bleeding edge and have some stuff work or lose things, etc. So that's just me personally. But I think why I'm excited and why I'm on this, I'm incredibly excited at the general conversation of increasing output of the human brain.

That's a really powerful framing. And I think it's, I love the first principle thinking that Elon brings to the table on any of these conversations that brings everybody's thinking up to that level. And then you have to think in that way. And it's the fact that he's, without realizing it, coaching tens of millions of entrepreneurs around the world to think in this way because he does,

is incredibly exciting for the future. Here's where I get a little bit more if you think about it. He kind of makes this comment in this clip that we put out X amount of roughly a bit per second is our output if you average it across the day. But you know, we just talked about why in person is so important because when you're in person face to face with somebody, there's a ton more happening than just my communication patterns back and forth. There's the pheromones we're putting out. There's our body language. There's visual cues. There's all sorts of verbal tonality that goes along. There's a ton of bandwidth occurring between two people on a conversation, much, much more than just the pure bits per

second being output by the brain. But you know as well as I do that all of that information is being converted to neuronal signals. It is. And your brain is only able to process a small number. So as we're having this conversation, there's traffic noise going on outside, there's air conditioning comes on, and we don't notice that because I'm focused on the wisdom

that Celine Miss Mail is Speaking to me about right now. Yes, and so there's no there's no reason why In fact an AI can't actually pay attention to all of it agree do pre-pre do pre-processing and Share with me the most important information because I'm ignoring 99.9% of the information coming to me right now and I have an attention focus on what I think is important and it may not actually be important or there may be other important information that I'm missing. My point

is that we have all sorts of mechanisms to do that for us in many cases. So I'll give you a small example. You and I both follow a few thousand people on Twitter or X. And then those folks we found curate the information out on the web and news stories and breaking tech news in a powerful way, and that's the pre-processing. It filters down for us, right? So we do a pretty good job of that. An AI would do an incrementally better job, but not a game-changing better job at that. If I'm sitting in front of a person, all the signals that I get are useful about the world, but it's not, you know, the fact that an AI might be able to look at the signals

of 10,000 people in a room in a big conference and get some sense of that, but it's not probably going to affect my decision making on a moment by moment basis. Where I think I've got, let me flip it around and tell you why I'm excited. If you can increase the bandwidth levels and then have brains interfacing more powerfully, the potential, I think it'll reshape our brains unbelievably powerfully is a mechanism for that we need a, if I had to wave a wand and fix a human being, human beings globally as a species, I would basically find a way of cutting out the amygdala, right? You talk about this. It's,

it's constantly scanning for bad news and danger and it takes over the rest of the brain and floods it with cortisol every time it perceives that. It's a completely useless device for today's world because the amount of time we're in actual physical danger is seconds out of a year. And so, we do so much potential to that. If we have the ability to interact with high bandwidth, we could actually then emphasize the neocortex

and of more processing power at a rational level and diminish the impact of the amygdala on us. So I agree with you and we can go broader than that, right? The amygdala is just your negativity bias where you pay more attention, 10 times more attention, negative muse and positive muse. But we have all these other cognitive biases right there's a familiarity bias there is a recency bias all of these things it's like we suffer from positivity bias we do we do though I think that's unbiased but that's a different story but I imagine you're having AI that's able to to tell

you listen that's not actually true. You have this piece of information from six months ago, which countervails that. And let me bring that forward. So in other words, you know, human bias alert, we can call it bullshit alert, but human bias alert, I think AI could play an incredibly good role because the reason we have cognitive biases Is because the human brain cannot process all the information being thrown at it. So we we take these shortcuts Yeah Okay, so A visual is coming to me. Okay. Okay. Imagine I have a a headset display And i'm walking around the world doing whatever and I'm buying a bar of chocolate

and an AI is scanning my brain and constantly bringing up these are the biases you're operating under right now. They're the cognitive biases that are forcing and just having that feedback loop of knowing what biases are at play at any given point would be incredibly powerful and give me a feedback loop because this is where I think things become really exciting is the Recursive feedback loop when you know what you're thinking why you're thinking something that allows you then to reshape how you're thinking This is the whole basis behind but we're limited and and but we're so limited right now by this, you know You know two and a half kilogram, you know unit above 14 watts of power. I just can't wait to plug in and expand beyond that,

but that's me. I'm gonna throw one more little thing in this. Okay. Okay. I've done a lot of mindfulness meditation, right, Vipassana, where you sit and you just be aware of what's happening in your body. Just imagine that I could be fully aware of all the activity

in every cell in my hands right now, and I could be fully aware of all the activity in every cell in my hands right now and I could be fully cognizant. The excitement and energy around every cell in your body which has its own mini sub-universes. 40 trillion cells, a billion chemical reactions per second. Just that is a profound thought in terms of could I just contemplate that more profoundly, forget interfaces elsewhere, etc. etc. So there's unbelievable optimism. With or without psychedelic drugs.

They give us a shortcut to what's possible and I think there's the ability to contemplate a broader, with broader bandwidth, the unbelievable reality we live in is amazing. All right, let's go to Elon again on on patients outperforming gamers. We feel pretty confident that I think maybe within the next year or two, that someone with a Neuralink implant will be able to outperform a pro gamer. Nice. Because the reaction time would be faster. You know, what's fascinating,

I remember when I did a long form conversation with Elon after we announced the $100 million Musk Carbon Prize, I was asking him about the first Neuralink patient, which was a chimp, no, it was chimpanzee called Pager and it was playing pong and I said did you play against Pager and he said yes and I said who won and I think Pager won but I think Elon may have said he did I don't know well but it's it's fascinating that we're going to get there.

You know, the Olympics are looking at e-sports as an Olympic game. And we're going to, you know, question is, will you be able to be enhanced when you're playing those games? That will be that'll be fascinating. I mean, this is a long trend, right? Which I think, you know, we have really good evidence today that the best leadership skills in the world are taught if you play World of Warcraft. So do you let your son play World of Warcraft? Not yet, because he's I think he's too young. He probably plays that stuff without he plays half of that stuff without telling me anyway. But I think the opportunity to really develop powerful skill,

deep human skills using this capability is massive. I think, you know, when you talk about AIs beating the pro gamers, etc., that's great, but we've seen that in chess, right? And we know the outcome, what happens. It just changes the game a little bit. The difference here is, you know, again, directly from the neocortex. And a lot of these are Twitch games. A lot of these are reaction time games, right? And so when the reaction time is minimized, because you're going straight, you know, input-output. I mean, it's, you know, I don't know, is that cheating? It is to some extent. It's just doing things better and differently

Gamers spend a ton of money buying a like a mouse that is connected directly into the motherboard So they have that few micro seconds advantage For me it's a for a lot of this but the the general concept of interacting with the brain and Having a broader bandwidth to process to signal processing is incredible Here's our last slide here and I think this is the numbers folks take away So prior to Neuralink the world record for a human using a device is somewhere on 4.2 to 4.6 bits per second Nolan is at 8.5 and we heard Elon in the previous video talk about going to megabit you know when I think about the notion that there's nothing

more important for a company or perform its mission is a function of per capita intelligence, I think. Maybe you disagree with that? I disagree with that. Okay, tell me where you come from. I'm going to bring up my EXO bias here. A huge amount has to do with how it's organized, right? Yeah. If you have all of the most powerful neurons in the world.

Let's assume they're organized, identical, but one group is more intelligent than the other. Yeah, of course. That's going to do better. But the organization always beats bandwidth and brain power. But both. We've been given a choice to take both here. You can do both but I think there's so much mileage to be gained by just organizing better and not being top down, command controlled,

slow decision making. That's what limits intelligence. For example, the basic intelligence in any institution, take the nuclear energy discussion we were having earlier, that limitation is not a function of intelligence. It's a function of the ability to execute and recognize we need a different framework for doing something and operating from a different model in a different framework. It's the changing of models that's hard. Yeah, but we just made my point, right, which is intelligence and regulators, different conversation, different page page different motivations. It's an it's a it's an it's a motivational alignment problem more than anything else

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Let's talk about robotic news next. So we could jump into that. All right. Let's go to the robots. All right. So we're seeing a lot in the world. If I think about the robotics right now, we talked about this again at the at the abundance summit. There are like 30 well-funded humanoid robot companies on the planet. Optimus and figure are you know Tesla. There are robots called Optimus and figure, Brett Adcock's company, just

released figure two. we'll talk about that in a minute, are the top two in the US and there's a whole bunch in China because China needs robots. Let's listen to a quick note from from Elon on the numbers, the size of the market, and then we'll talk about this in more detail. The Optimist numbers, they're really just, they're so mind blowing that you're like, is this real? But because I actually think the market for humanoid robots is in excess of 10 billion units,

like more than the number of humans. Because people will each want one and then there'll be others that are involved in industry and stuff. So if they do sell for $20,000, that's $200 trillion. This is just an insane number. That's why I like, I wonder what does money even mean at that point, you know? What does money even mean at that point? So, Salim, the numbers here to reflect on,

The numbers here to reflect on, and I got these exact same numbers from Brett Adcock when I did a podcast with him recently. Twenty thousand dollars a unit, that's what the price sort of converges on. And that's like a hundred dollars a month if you're going to lease it. And you know, ten billion of them in the world. Well I think I again have I like going to the extremes and just considering both sides of this. I think at one level it's incredibly exciting. The best framing and metaphor of robots comes from the AI conversation with E-mod where he goes when you have a bunch of if you're the head chef and you have a bunch

of sous chefs organizing everything for you, you become way more creative, you execute way faster. Because right now, if I had a sous chef AI in the kitchen and I want to make a really complicated Indian recipe, I spend a huge amount of time gathering all the freaking ingredients. Just that would be a huge game changer in terms of my ability to be a great chef, right? So I think this is where robots are able to do amazing things over time. But I think the entire economics numbers become irrelevant just because the change in productivity is such a game changer. None of our numbers in terms of GDP or something can match what's economic. Economics are so broken right? I mean GDP

is a function of the number of people working and the amount of technology and the amount of energy they have access to and all those things and all those things are you know infinitely. It's worse than it's worse than it's it's actually terrible because it doesn't take account deflation. So, we spend half a million dollars per breast cancer patient in the US on average, right? If you have the ability to detect breast cancer early and save all those lives, GDP actually goes down. So, that's not a great... GDP is a terrible metric for success of the human race in the future. It's just the best one we've come up with that's not a great GDP is a terrible metric for success of the human race in the future

It's just the best one. We've come up with that's easily measurable For the future. So this is an important point where technology becomes deflationary and we have to navigate that for the future But that's again a whole other conversation I'm gonna play this in the background as we're talking about this is figure two from from a company called figure AI and you know, I went and visited his plant and and on the podcast with bread he shows us a little bit inside and it's it's a beautiful robot I actually saw designs for figure three as well which take this yet to another level of beauty. And I don't know, I think that we're gonna see these every place. And so we've had the argument about,

you said why do they have to look like humans? I think they're going to look like humans because that's the world we live in and they are multi-purpose. And when it was my conversation with Brett, who he just raised like $700 million from OpenAI and Microsoft and Nvidia and Jeff Bezos. And incredibly, what makes this possible is the multimodal AI, where you're gonna just

talk to robots and tell them to go do things for you hmm he made a point let me make one other thing he made a point that I think is really important and I would love your reflection of this the point that Brett made was listen as we head towards AGI or digital super intelligence, we need robots. Otherwise, these AIs are going to be asking us to do their bidding. And that's going to be a pretty depressing future. OK, so very valid point. I still sit on the cautious and pessimistic side on this.

Going back to the autonomous driving mode, I'll give you one other triangulation on that, which is the Roomba vacuum cleaner robot. Everybody got really excited about those and they're terrible because you have to move everything for you, for the robot, and now you're doing the work of the robot, which is exactly the point that you just made, right? Everything you do is servicing so the robot can do, and you spend more time rearranging the room so the robot can do its thing than if you just vacuum the place in the first place. But these humanoid robots will grab the vacuum cleaner.

I think that those small nuances will take a lot longer to work in there than we think. Where I get really excited about this, by the way, is the hive mind capability that these robots, that I think will be very exciting. Yeah, I'm going to skip the NVIDIA robot slide other than to say, you know, every company out there is in some way shape or form looking at working with with robotics. OpenAI's got other projects projects Google's got its projects and we're gonna see robots You know, I just tweeted That

Damn it. I posted my tweet it I posted Give me a damn verb be alone, please. I I posted that CES this year We're gonna see a ton of robots but everything is going to be talking to you, right? Everything is going to be generative AI enabled. They can see you and talk to you and that's going to be just, you know, sort of improvement du jour at CES this year. I think it would be hugely amazing. There's not often I kind of feel tempted to go to the

chaos and jungle that is CES but this might be a year to go. Yeah. We'll go to our last subject here which is biotech and other cool stuff. This was a article that came out and there's a particular genetic variation that was found that increased lifespan in mice and by 25% and I think what makes this interesting is it's actually in human trials as well. I think what I want to point out by this slide is that we're continuing to find things that are extending human lifespan or extending mammalian lifespan and that we're just at the beginning of this journey. It's still early games here. How long do you want to live? How long do I want to live? You know, I'm, I, uh, there's a big metaphysical conversation that we don't want to get into here about, um, living forever, et cetera, et cetera.

I think the best framing is having a great health span, which you talk about a lot, right, is that's a really important one because having a vibrant life as opposed to just a long life is really, really a key success factor. I think the world is so goddamn amazing. I would like to be around for a while, long enough to see this massive transition that we're going through, which, you know, I say this often, I think the next 30 years is going to drive the next several centuries of human humanity. Oh, I think it's, I think the next 30 years is gonna drive the next several centuries of human humanity Oh, I think it's and how do we navigate the Mad Max versus Star Trek? Sure sure that we have is going to be really really

interesting and critical and it's just we you know goes back to your comment about we must be in a simulation because it's too just Too goddamn interesting today to be around. I mean we're at the 99th level of the game I mean to look at it that way, right? it's like it would the The we are about to evolve into something new. It's like that line from 2001 to Space Odyssey Which I can't remember but but it's like, you know the future is just

Unbelievably on spire. It's the singularity. By the way, can I ask you a quick question? You know, Ray keeps on holding to the singularity date of like 2045. I mean, that seems like, like, really, if we've got like digital superintelligence by 2030, don't you think it's going to move a little faster than 2045? You know, what's up with that? So, I'm right now plowing through the singularity is nearer. Yeah, I just finished it. And what I'm struck by as far as I've gotten into it is, A, the unbelievable prescience

of his commentary from 20, 30, 40, 50 years ago. It just blows your mind. Who is this man? I mean, he can't be human to be making these kinds of comments. That's one observation. The second observation is I notice he changes what the singularity is to talk about more as a metaphor than a real thing, which I think is the right way of framing it. It's a great metaphor for the fact that we just can't predict past a certain event horizon.

And let's just live with the fact that we can't predict it. But in that case we have serial singularities. Oh, I always, we always talked about this at Singularity University where there's non-stop small s's happening all the time. The iPhone arriving was a singularity, right? Bitcoin was a singularity. You can call it, you call it Asteroid impacts, I call it Gutenberg moments, there's black swans, there's just an increasing frequency of those happening at a ridiculous level that's going to just change everything we do and then act on it and then make sense of it is the biggest intelligence quotient we're going to need we're going to have to have over the next decade and two. Yep, agreed but I mean I think of a AI singularity coming where I can't predict what's coming after. I think that's already there in In my OpenEXO world, we have a sub-community of about 600 folks focused just on AI and they meet weekly just to try and process what happened this week in AI and try and make sense of it. I mean, it's just, I would say that we've hit the singularity already

in AI. The pace of change is faster than we can Even talk about it or recognize it and make sense of it Yeah, I I I get it. All right, let's go on um I think one of our last slides here, uh Life bio is a company that david sinclair had started and you know David made history when he showed that epigenetic reprogramming using three out of the four Yamanaka factors was able to bring back the earlier state of youth of cells in

particular it was in the optic nerve this This is Dr. Sharon, I'm not gonna, Rosenweg Lipson, who's the chief science officer for LifeBio at, for David's company. Let's take a quick listen here. What we're doing is we're building on the work of Dr. David Sinclair, where he identified that you only need three of the Amanaka factors, F4, SOX2, and KLF4,

which allows you to not take us all the way back to a stem cell state, but rather to make a more youthful version of itself. So we do it in a, our version of it is an ER100. So ER100 is a two vector system, okay? So we have two vectors, and it allows us to use a Teton dox-ind two vector system. Okay, so we have two vectors and it allows us to use a Teton dox inducible system. Short form it means we can control it. Hoping to be in the clinic in 2025.

So the point here, which is pretty amazing, is that in the clinic means for humans and we're using epigenetic age reversal in humans in particular I think they're going to be doing it for a number of eye related diseases and blindness reversal but they're in primates right now and it's working and I just want people to get excited about the future in terms of age slowing, stopping, perhaps reversing aging. And God knows there's a lot of implications.

The broader implications, what do we do with pension plans and unemployment benefits? All that stuff is kind of the structural changes just coming from life extension are unbelievable. But I'm really, really excited about this. I know you spend a huge amount of your time now on the longevity stuff and you're kind of doing an unbelievable job of popularizing it and getting people used to the conversation, right? I think that's the key part. You want to talk about singularities.

Breaking through the aging stuff is something that we've not really been able to do as a human species in any really meaningful way for our entire four billion year history of Earth. And now all of a sudden we're hitting this point where we can completely change the game of biology. It's amazing. Yeah. All right last subject here for today, life on Mars. So we saw some data come back from NASA's Perseverance rover which is you know cruising around getting data. What it did was it found a particular rock that in that rock were three elements that were critical. First, it found water in the rock. Second, it found organic compounds that were part of life and precursors and then it found evidence for chemical energy sources in the rock. And when you have those three things together, typically that spells life. I

just saw this morning an article that they also found liquid water on the surface of Mars. So you know I'm excited about two, three things. Number one, the notion that I think there is life on Mars today. It's microbial, it's subsurface, it's in the permafrost in the water, and just finding life on another planet just changes everything. The second thing is, I say, second thing is going to be interesting is there is a theory that because Mars cooled first, because it's farther from the sun, that life evolved on Mars first. And

there's an exchange of material between Mars and Earth as asteroids strike the Martian surface, the ejecta reaches escape velocity. And so it's going to be interesting if we find life on Mars and compare it to life on Earth, did it originate on Mars first? And then there's the whole panspermium which is life, you know evolved elsewhere in the universe and it's just Floating through space and it seeds planets as it intersects

All right now over to your wisdom well, I mean there's no question in my mind of the panspermia model being the real one because We found tardigrades can survive in space. There's absolutely no reason that a life form should be able to survive in space if it originated in Earth and yet here we have them. So it's pretty clear that life has evolved in many, many, many, many places. It goes to the whole Drake equation, which we don't need to get into right now, but if you want to check it out. But which we don't need to get into right now, but if you want to check it out, but the reality of life being pervasive around the earth, the only then question is how do we answer the Fermi paradox, which I think we have a reasonably good response to.

And the Fermi paradox is? There must be life all over the goddamn universe. Why haven't we seen aliens? Where the hell are they? Why haven't they come to... Right. Why haven't they brought me home yet? And the best model, the answer I've heard is the transcension hypothesis by John Smart. You get to virtual reality technology and you can simulate anything so you go inward rather than trying to go outward because it's just

too hard physically to go outward. I do believe that. So that reality, this is not surprising. I'm just thankful that we've actually found it so that we can shut down all the religious idiots Sorry, just to be clear that article doesn't say we found we found the precursors for it I know but one of the big questions and everybody thing is where's the primordial loose that we think we've seen and here we have It on another planet. So by the way little by little we're filling in the gaps of how life Ganymede Europa, you know, the moons around Jupiter and Saturn are likely to have even more advanced life. You know, what's what's fun is we're alive during this period of time, right?

Starship, you know, Starship Flight Five is going to be going up soon. Can't wait for us to talk about that in our next our next podcast conversation. And it is going to bring people, 100 people to the surface of moon and Mars and take us out to the other planets. It's gonna be the, whatever you wanna call it, what was the trend, what was the most important, like the 707 of aircraft, right?

That became the KC-135 tankers and really a first transatlantic, really wide-body jet. It's going to allow us to go there and and we're gonna find out. And it's... I'm going to do a final plug here for XPRIZE because notice that you're, you know, you created XPRIZE because you noticed that Lindbergh crossed the Atlantic and all the teams competing, developed canccillary technologies that can create a commercial aviation industry. Right? And boom, you put a honeypot down for the space world and now we have a close to trillion dollar space industry

and we're doing that non-stop across the board. So the future is so, so exciting. It is and I didn't mention in the beginning, Salim is also a member of our board of directors of the XPRIZE Foundation. He's godfather to my two kids. I'm going to add your additional... Anyway, I love you so much, buddy. And this was a fun conversation.

I really, really enjoyed it. Great conversation. And super important. And I want to debate hotly some of the other topics. We'll do that next time. Yeah. And if you're enjoying these conversations with Salim and myself, please subscribe. Let us know I'd like to do this, you know once a month where Salim and I get together and and argue and

Disagree on all of these things Salim. Where do people find you and your companies? At Salim Ismail is on on X slash Twitter and opening XO calm. Yeah. All right, buddy All right, you're You're off on vacation. I'm off to Indonesia and India, family stuff, and then back in a couple of weeks. You must be a god when you land in India. I mean, you're Indian and I'm sure... I try and hide actually because I'm scared that once people see that they'll steal my passport and I won't be able to get out. To keep you there. All right, be well. Take care.