Moonshots with Peter Diamandis - Cathie Wood on the Bitcoin Halving, Apple/Open AI & NVDIAs Dominance w/ Cathie Wood | EP #108
Episode Date: July 8, 2024In this episode, Cathie and Peter discuss… 6:23 | Apple/OpenAI Partnership 24:13 | The Future of Nvidia and AI 34:14 | Bitcoin After the Halving Cathie Wood is a renowned stock-picker and the f...ounder of the $60 billion ARK Invest, a key figure in the investment landscape for disruptive innovations such as self-driving cars and genomics. After founding ARK in 2014 and gaining experience at various investment firms, Wood aimed to offer active stock portfolios in an ETF format. Her flagship Ark Innovation Fund, with assets totaling $23 billion, has delivered an impressive average annual return of nearly 45% over the past five years. Wood is a prominent advocate for Tesla, predicting the electric car company's future valuation to surpass $3 trillion. ARK Big Ideas 2024: https://www.ark-invest.com/big-ideas-2024 ARK Venture Fund: https://www.ark-funds.com/funds/arkvx ARK Invest: https://ark-invest.com/ ARK’s Podcast episode with Peter: https://www.ark-invest.com/podcast/peter-diamandis-and-cathie-wood-on-longevity-ai-and-bitcoin ____________ I only endorse products and services I personally use. To see what they are, please support this podcast by checking out our sponsors: Reverse the age of your skin with http://Oneskin.co/peter Get started with Fountain Life and become the CEO of your health: https://fountainlife.com/peter/ AI-powered precision diagnosis you NEED for a healthy gut: https://www.viome.com/peter _____________ Get my new Longevity Practices 2024 book: https://bit.ly/48Hv1j6 I send weekly emails with the latest insights and trends on today’s and tomorrow’s exponential technologies. Stay ahead of the curve, and sign up now: Tech Blog _____________ Connect With Peter: Twitter Instagram Youtube Moonshots
Transcript
Discussion (0)
Cathy, welcome. It's great to see you. Thank you, Peter.
So at Bitcoin, we just had the having and the question is, where's Bitcoin going?
How are you feeling about things? We are, we believe, halfway through this bull market.
And I think what's going to happen is... I think about this partnership between OpenAI and Apple
as the direct challenge to Google. I'm curious if that was what really underlined and drove that.
Already we're seeing Bing, believe it or not,
starting to gain share.
We've been thinking, oh my gosh, Google is in harm's way here.
NVIDIA, you know, it's jockeying to be the most valuable company
on the planet.
What's your take on NVIDIA?
Our thought here is, OK, three trillion dollar company, gross margins in the high 70s.
Now, will the competitive environment allow that?
Everybody, welcome to Moonshots. My guest today is none other than the incredible Kathy Wood,
tech investor, visionary, the head of the ARK Invest $60 billion platform.
Our conversations are going to go over AI, all things AI, humanoid robots, the Bitcoin
having, Tesla's robot taxis, humanoid robots, and biotech like Alpha Fold.
This is one of my favorite conversations about what's happening in the next 12 months, in
the next five years.
If you enjoy conversations like this, please subscribe.
Gives me a chance to bring incredible people
like Cathy to you.
Thanks, let's jump in.
Cathy, welcome.
It's great to see you.
First off, let me just wish you a happy 10th year anniversary.
Oh, thank you.
Yes, yes.
Big milestone this year, 10 years old.
Thank you.
Yeah, 2014 to 2024. And it's been an incredible decade,
right, between AI and robotics and Bitcoin and Tesla
and rockets and everything.
Yeah.
You know, I was just on the phone with Ray Kurzweil,
who's my partner in Singularity and Abundance 360
and a few other companies.
And we were talking about his new book,
The Singularity is Nearer, just came out, which I have to talk to him about naming his books, but that's a different subject
Yeah, I think the next book is gonna be called the singularity just passed but we'll see
And we're saying that you know the next ten years
The way to think about it is the next ten years. We going to see as much progress as we've seen in the past century, which is an extraordinary way to think about
this.
Right?
So on your 10-year anniversary, thinking about the next 10 years, it's going to be insane.
It is.
And we talk about this a lot on our brainstorming sessions and the equity market's mosey along
like nothing much is going to change. It's same old, same old. And we're trying to figure out,
oh my gosh, these technologies are falling so dramatically in costs, whether industrial robots, energy storage, AI, blockchain technology,
multi-omic sequencing, they're all,
the costs of all of them are hitting such low levels
that they're going to scale, I think,
much more dramatically than most people think.
And I think it's going to be very exciting
if you're on the right side of change.
It's going to be very disturbing
if you're not on the right side of change.
And I don't think,
and this is where I think you've got it right, Peter.
I don't think people understand
how quickly this is going to happen.
Yeah, the government's not ready.
I think the public's not ready.
Our educational system isn't ready,
but they're gonna have to get to it.
And it's gonna be, I think, more,
I don't wanna use the word disruptive
and negative connotation.
It's gonna be more reinventive of society
than we saw during COVID, right?
COVID was the last time we had a step function change
that the world stopped and people got sort of disoriented
and then reestablished in your norm.
But I think we're gonna see that.
I just read through your big ideas,
ARC Invest research paper, it's magnificent.
So congratulations on that.
Our team, all our research team, just amazing.
Yeah.
If you haven't seen this report, go.
It's downloadable for free.
It's the Big Ideas ARK Invest report,
and it's pretty incredible.
Can I just say, what it showcases
is, yes, the speed at which we expect these technologies
to evolve, because costs have come down to such a low level.
And it also highlights how we've set up our organization.
Our analyst responsibilities are broken out not by sector, not by industry, not by sub-industry
because technology is blurring the lines between and among industries and these technologies
are converging. So it's going to seem, you know,
to the traditional analysts, it's going to seem like a chaotic world. And we did have, and I know
we talk about Tesla a lot, but it is the poster child. And you get a sense of what's going to
happen here. It's a robot company. It's an energy storage company. It's an AI company.
It's an AI company. It's a software service company. You know, it is and yet auto analysts are falling.
I am, it's ridiculous the way Tesla is being valued, but let's get to that. First of all,
you mentioned convergence. It's going to be the theme of Abundance 360 2025 and excited to have
you on stage with me to help interpret all of this
and where it's going. I'm excited. There are three subjects I want to talk about today with you.
The first is AI. I mean, a lot between OpenAI and Apple, between NVIDIA, between XAI,
which I think we're both investors in. Next one hit Bitcoin, a lot happening there.
You have been a staunch advocate for Bitcoin and making some, I think, bold predictions,
which I'm counting on because it's my biggest asset class personally.
Then the third is disruptive tech, everything from the genomics revolution, AlphaFold 3, to robots, a lot in robots.
I'm just a big robot fan right now.
And see where this is going.
So is that good for a roadmap for us?
All right.
Let's jump into AI.
Apple OS and OpenAI.
I found that fascinating.
I'm curious.
I expected for the longest time that we would get an update to Siri and that it would be
a large language model that Apple had been defining because Siri sucks, right?
Still spells my name wrong and it's pretty simple.
It should not be spelling it P-I-E-T-E-R.
And they didn't, they ended up partnering with OpenAI.
I'm curious what your thoughts are about that.
Yeah, we've been watching Apple for a long time.
From a particular AI angle,
we believe that autonomous vehicles are the ultimate mobile devices. And so
rightly, Apple should have gone for it. And yet we saw one management turnover after another,
after another, and now they're pretty much abandoning it. And so that was our first clue that
they're pretty much abandoning it. And so that was our first clue that AI was a tough nut for Apple to crack. And so, yeah, it was very interesting to hear various responses
and a big debate around what this means for Apple. It's not bad, of course, but we within our own organization have two points of view.
One of them is this is great for Apple.
They're going to be able to layer in all of these features, functionality.
They already know so much about their users. And one of my friends said,
I almost felt relieved when I heard
the features they were going to roll out.
I felt safe.
They were gonna keep me safe in this world,
which, you know, so I found that very interesting.
And so of course, Nick Gruse, our Apple analyst,
was very excited.
He thinks this is gonna be fantastic.
One thing it will do is the refresh cycle,
this next one will probably be a good one
because there's something new, new.
Okay, so that's that.
On the other side.
It's not just a better camera.
Right, on the other side of the debate is,
and I lean a little bit here,
is our chief futurist, whom you know, Brett Winton,
is saying, well, wait a minute,
Apple is known for privacy and security.
And sure, it's gonna roll out these features,
which sounded kind of meh, you know, during the launch.
Sure, they're gonna roll them out
and it's gonna make, you know,
these Apple phones somewhat more interesting.
But there is so much happening when it comes to AI. And there are going
to be companies who are not constricted by this, you can say constricted or confined or whatever,
by this privacy security kind of, you know, priority, who will come up with some crazy new ideas that are going to
become very attractive to people, but Apple will not be able to adopt them in
the same way. So this has set up for us, and this is part of the Mag 7 or
Mag 6 versus rest of disruptive innovation, you know, is it those
companies? Is it theirs to lose here?
And, you know, the history of disruptive innovation is,
yes, it is theirs to lose.
We just don't know who's going to come up
with what provocative product to dislodge them.
Well, you know, it's never been the dominant player
that made the transition.
The icebox manufacturer didn't design the refrigerator.
It's always been someone from the outside.
It's always been the young innovator
who doesn't know what they can't do that comes in and disrupts
the world.
It's interesting.
I think about this partnership between OpenAI and Apple
as the direct challenge to Google.
And I'm curious if that was what really underlined, drove that. Cause I had to imagine that Apple, and I didn't make that connection that you just
made about them not going after an electric car, which was always part of the,
part of the equation, but they didn't have the,. Yeah Yeah, it's on a minute autonomous electric cars. Yeah real quick
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All right, let's get back to the episode.
XAI.
I'm an investor. I think you are an investor in XAI, I'm an investor.
I think you are an investor in XAI.
Did you take a good position there?
Yeah.
I mean, we have a small venture fund.
It's scaling.
It's almost $65 million now.
So we took a nice little slug for the size of that fund.
And we're very, very happy to be on the cap table.
So yes, you know, when we first, as we've been studying foundation models, we've
been thinking, oh my gosh, Google is in harm's way here, you know, because who
wants to link to anything anymore?
And we can just go directly to whatever we're looking for.
So, uh, and, and, and that was kind of a risk for Apple as well.
You know, the apps, you know,
maybe we don't have to use these apps.
Maybe the developers won't have to pay that tax,
you know, as with ChatGPT and others,
we can just go where we want, ask, you know, and get exactly what
we want.
Now, that's an oversimplification.
And I think it has been confirmed that Google paid Apple $20 billion to be the default search,
if I'm not mistaken. And so, yes, the whole world is being,
I think the traditional world is going to be shaken up
in a way that I think people don't quite understand yet.
I agree.
If I have, right now, the entire search engine industry, and I love Google, I've had a 20-year love
affair with the teams there.
I know them well.
They've been partners.
They've been XPRIZE sponsors.
Eric Schmidt and Larry and Sergey were huge underwriters of XPRIZE in the beginning, and
Larry's on our board. and I you know, they've had this cash machine that has allowed them to go and build Waymo and
purchase incredible companies
But that is gonna be fundamentally threatened, you know
If I say to my AI listen go buy me all my stuff. My AI is not looking at ads
It doesn't care what someone's smiling at
them for toothpaste. It just knows my genetics. It knows which toothpaste is
going to work best for my teeth and not for others. And so the hegemony of the
ad industry is going to be up for grabs with AI in the mix.
Absolutely, absolutely. And you know, even already we're seeing Bing, believe it or not, starting to gain share.
That's very interesting because of the open AI and now you have Apple and, you know, so
again, a rearranging of the guards.
But you know, are they the real winners anyway? What I think the world we're imagining is
is is going to be so different from the world we're in right now.
And and and yet you wouldn't know that from the way the equity markets are behaving.
There's a paper that just came out that talks about the projected speed
of AGI and digital superintelligence
and the paper's predicting two orders of magnitude increase by 2027, right, a hundredfold increase
in capabilities and heading towards massive GPU, TPU clusters coming up as an arms race
really. GPU TPU clusters coming up as an arms race really and so if we really do have
AIs that are a hundredfold beyond GPT-4. So GPT-4 is described as a
intelligent high school student college student where
Two orders of magnitude further is the world's top double PhD expert in whatever
further is the world's top double PhD expert in whatever. Accessible in your hand at a moment's notice.
The world is very different all of a sudden.
Yes, it is. No, I have not read the paper, but this aligns with some of our own research.
I mean, that's a little bit faster.
But the cost declines associated with AI, so training costs dropping 75% per year,
inference costs dropping 85% plus per year, as you mentioned in big ideas. Yes, we're seeing even,
and I'm not sure if we talked about this on our last podcast together, but we're seeing
if we talked about this on our last podcast together, but we're seeing pre-Chat GPT, AGI was predicted by futurists out maybe 80 years, and then post-Chat GPT, so just a year and a half ago, eight years, and now maybe even sooner than that.
So yes, and you know, we try and imagine,
okay, what is the world going to be like?
Well, one of the things, and this is in big ideas as well,
is again, those who actually harness these tools,
if they are underperformers today and they become very serious about harnessing tools,
the performance increase for a low performer, and I think it was BCG or Bain did this on
its own consultants, right? The high performers improved after CHAT GPT by 17%.
The low performers by 43%.
And we've begun to think, okay, so that's at the individual level.
What about at the company level?
Companies that are scrapping and scraping around,
and they've found it difficult to compete against some behemoths who have well-oiled machines.
Well, if they harness tools and if the world is changing as rapidly as we think it is, maybe they're developing a competitive advantage relative to the big guys.
It's flattening the playing field in a fascinating way, right?
It's no longer your level of dominance that will save you.
It's really how you can integrate technology rapidly.
I want to go back to XAI because I'm super curious, right?
You've got the leading players right now with Gemini in Google and OpenAI in Microsoft and
you've got Anthropic and then here comes the startup XAI.
Now I've learned over the years, I will never bet against Elon and I've had the most extraordinary
returns betting on him from a financial standpoint and so your position in Tesla for me is 100%
warranted and it's a good reason to really look at your
innovation fund. He never plays for second place and so
the question is can he catch up and excel and really leapfrog
the current players.
What are your thoughts on that?
Like you, I would not bet against him.
And you know what's interesting also is this is the physical world and the digital world
coming together.
He's a maestro at that. A lot of the Silicon Valley born and bred innovators, they have gotten used
to the digital world and viral apps and very high returns on investment with very low fixed
costs. Elon is the inventor of our age who is, I'll say, a maestro at the convergences between
and among technologies.
Tesla is one example.
And yeah, so I think he has big ideas, and I think he's motivated by what has happened at OpenAI and probably wants to, probably is betting on something
pointing away from OpenAI in terms of, okay, where should I place my bets and towards what he is
doing from a trust point of view, which, you, which OpenAI has just been through a transition
with a lot of the so-called safety advocates leaving.
So there's certainly a compare and contrast evolving there.
It'll be very interesting to see what he does.
Kathy, when I think about what's required to excel and win the AI wars, and let's call
them that because they are, it's GPU concentration, it's talent, and it's data.
And what I think is interesting about XAI is that Elon, I don't hear people talking
about this, he's got access to extraordinary data through Tesla right Tesla is a imagery gathering machine
millions of them on the roads
interacting with people and things and
And also the X platform right is a massive data asset for him. And so, yeah.
Absolutely.
We just had a brainstorm around this.
And yes, we think proprietary data at the end of the day is going to be one of the biggest
competitive advantages.
And yes, think of all of his companies and all of the different kinds of data, even,
even Neuralink, you know, there's, there's AI around that as well. And, you know, bringing in
the human brain neural network. So, I mean, he's covering, when I think about our five platforms,
he's covering, he's touching all of them and they're all converging and they're all spewing out data that only
convergence baby
It's crazy again preview for your your conference next year. Yeah, I mean honestly I
I'm giddy as a as a geek
about the potential of how much things are going to accelerate and change. And worried for those people who, you know,
unfortunately the majority of humanity likes to go to sleep
and wake up and hope that the morning is just like the night before.
People don't like change, but we're about to see a lot of change.
They don't like change, and I do think that it's important
to get these ideas into schools as early as possible. I
think I've mentioned to you before the AHRQ education initiative. We are going
to be the science curriculum throughout Pinellas County within the next, for the
middle school system. So sixth, seventh and eight grade. I just changed my kids to middle school because
it was devoid of a vision of the future and technology. Oh my God, it's preparing them
for 40 years ago, not for the next 10 years. And it's so important to inspire them at that
moment. They face a lot of forks in the road around middle school, right? And so to actually inspire them
and let them know, look, if you study this,
it is so new. You are on the same playing
field. You'll know more about whether it's
drones or robots than 98% of the people in the world,
if you study this now and then go for it,
there's so many ways with our own AI tutors,
we can deepen our knowledge of any given area
and deepen our understanding of the convergences
that are evolving and how we might capitalize on them.
One last question on the AI front here. NVIDIA. What's your theme on this?
I mean, honestly, I missed NVIDIA. I knew it was going to come as powerful,
but I didn't. I took my chips off the table way too early.
You know, it's jockeying to be the most valuable company on the planet, I took my chips off the table way too early.
It's jockeying to be the most valuable company on the planet, which is extraordinary.
And they still have a lot of, they can create their own platform plays instead of just selling
chips, right?
There's a lot of opportunity for them.
Do you think it's at the peak?
Do you think it's going to continue growing?
Can it be disrupted? I happen to know one of my investments, Liquid AI,
is working closely with Intel on a new type of chip that could be orders of magnitude faster.
What's your take on Nvidia? So like you, well, we did enjoy a hundred, nearly a hundredfold
increase in Nvidia, it'd be from on this stock the split
stock from around 40 cents to $40 and the stocks at 120.
So and we still own it in our more specialized portfolios one being more AI focused. Our thought here is, okay, $3 trillion company,
gross margins in the high 70s,
it's major customers, the cloud customers,
their gross margins are lower than that.
That's a very concentrated customer base.
And the history of the hyperscalers
is when they see the economics going to their suppliers,
they decide, you know, we're going to do that. You know, we should do that. We can do that. You
know, they're very cash rich. So, you know, it, it, NVIDIA is an incredible story, all praise to
Jensen Wong and his team. And they're trying to evolve from a strictly
hardware company to more of a software company, a platform company. Now, will the competitive
environment allow that? As I mentioned, the hyperscalers, they're all designing their own
chips, right? Some of them more general purpose, some like Tesla put that in a hyperscaler
designing its own chip.
It already pulled one Nvidia chip out of its cars and with Dojo, ultimately, I think that
it will verticalize completely.
So you know, the...
And by the way, that's Elon's play continuously, right? He always realizes
I mean, that's we didn't just did that in SpaceX
I remember having a conversation with him in the early days during Falcon 1 and he's like he's pissed at the supplier and it's
It's like a ridiculous pricing and his immediate reaction is
Figure out how to build it ourselves. All right, as soon as somebody's margins are too big
Yeah, right and what happened a couple of quarters ago, during an earnings call,
Elon said, and we know he was trying to get more NVIDIA GPUs, so a
couple of quarters ago he said, you know, building a chip is really hard, really
hard. Now we might be successful, but it's really hard and the odds are low.
And then lo and behold, a couple of quarters later, not only does he have all the chips
he needs, but he donates, I don't know how it worked, I'm sure it was legal, some from
Tesla to X.
Now, this brings up supply versus demand.
I think what's happening in AI,
and I'd love to get your thoughts, Peter.
What we're seeing, and we hear about this from Palantir,
we're learning from Palantir,
how much it is going to take, how much time
and preparation it's going to take to move into the AI age for these large enterprises,
and all of these companies are catering to the large enterprises. What do they have to do? The
way they need to set up is, first of all, they have to aggregate their data, far-flung data.
They don't even know where a lot of their data resides. Aggregate it, clean it up, integrate it,
map out workflows in excruciating detail. And what we're seeing now is, you know,
the cycle is a little uncertain. the cycle meaning the economic cycle.
We're seeing the consumer is showing signs of significant weakness in some categories.
And so companies are saying, okay, this is a strategic decision we have to make, and
we're going to put a lot of resources into it.
But let's make sure we prepare appropriately.
They're screwed.
They're screwed. Yeah, I think this is Macy's,
JCPenney, Toys R Us, all over again. I think that they're going to have the small players
who are digital first, AI first born, who are going to eat their lunch in the final
result. I think there will be a lot of that.
That's our bet.
We're all about truly disruptive innovation.
That's not how the market's betting right now.
And the market's betting, I think, from a safety,
what they know, not willing to make the leap.
Yes. Not going to make the leap. Yes There it's just it's it's momentum of their previous mindset
They haven't seen the disruption yet. They haven't seen it. Yeah, and if there is any disturbance, let's just say we have this
You know strategic reset, you know pause then what we have is
Probably too much supply out there relative to current demand.
And I am talking about GPUs and, you know, use of that.
But that will be a moment in time because this is so big.
And we're seeing in the private markets a lot of companies being funded
who are going to come up with you know something new interesting different
provocative controversial you know and and and probably the way the world's
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All right, let's go back to our episode.
On our next conversation, because we don't have time for it today, I do want to talk
about the fact that in one more iterative cycle, one more order of magnitude,
we're going to have the best AI programmers as AIs.
And the acceleration that occurs at that moment
is blinding, where we're going to have drop-in employees,
drop-in programmers, drop-in physicians, drop-in lawyers.
And it's just, this is what's going to enable a startup
to come from nowhere and become the single-person,
billion-dollar company and disrupt the large players
who didn't see it coming.
Right.
Just to take that, you know, when the cloud happened,
the barriers to innovation came down.
And even more so now that we can all become
natural language programmers or prompt engineers,
or I think the barrier to entry is coming down.
And the costs of all of this innovation are coming down.
Not so much the large language models,
but the cost of most innovation is coming down. Not so much the large language models, but the cost of most innovation is coming down
dramatically.
Let's go to our topic number two, a subject that your audience and my audience loves,
so at Bitcoin.
We just had the halving.
It happened with little fanfare, little change.
And the question is, where's Bitcoin going? It was 70,000 or thereabouts a month or so ago, it dropped down to below 60, I bought
more Bitcoin.
How are you feeling about things?
What are you seeing as the future here?
Yeah, I think so we have four people at ARK who are working on crypto generally, one dedicated to Bitcoin
on chain analytics.
And judging by those, we are, we believe, halfway through this bull market.
And halfway doesn't mean we're halfway through the price increase because, you know, at the
end of a bull market,
prices tend to go parabolic.
So we have no idea where that, but we feel very strongly just based on on-chain analytics
looking at them versus the short 10-year history, 10, a little bit more than that history, that
we're halfway through the bull market.
What's very interesting, since the ETFs were
launched in January, many people think, oh, all right, the boom and, you know, we've had a very
nice showing. David versus Goliath, we're in the fight and very happy where we are. Yeah.
the fight and very happy where we are. Yeah.
But not one major, what we call them wire houses, like Morgan Stanley, UBS, Wells Fargo,
Bank of America, Merrill Lynch, not one has put Bitcoin on its platform yet, a Bitcoin
ETF.
They're all doing their due diligence.
And I think what's going to happen is
within the next few months, one will,
and it may be not the big ones,
it may be an independent RIA like LPL,
they tend to move a little more quickly.
Once you get one with a spot Bitcoin ETF on its
platform, the others will fall in line pretty quickly. It was so funny. My mom was like,
where do I put my retirement money? I said, put it in a Bitcoin ETF. And I said, you know,
who manages for you? She says, Merrill Lynch. Let me talk to your Meryl Lynch person. We're not allowed to do that. And I'm like, Mom, change who manages your money, please.
Well, any of the big ones, she's not going to have any better luck.
But you can go to an online broker, Robinhood and others, and they tend to be a little bit more adventurous. Are you still there? Yes. By 2030? Yes, 2030.
So our bull case, bull is over 1.5 million.
Our base is in the $650,000 range, so about tenfold from here by 2030.
And there are three big building blocks.
Institutional is one, and I would put the,
it sounds like retail distribution,
but these are institutional decision makers
at B of A, Merrill Lynch, and so forth.
So that's one.
The second is, this is a replacement for gold.
So we assume that it's going to subsume 50% of what would be the gold market,
especially as younger people are looking to diversify.
And then it is an insurance policy.
In emerging markets, I just visited El Salvador and had the pleasure of meeting the top officials there,
and they are blazing a trail, making it legal tender
and giving their populations or showing the way for other countries to give their-
What a brilliant move.
Yes, it is a brilliant-
What a brilliant move.
President Bukele is going after two big ideas and we're talking about them, AI and Bitcoin.
My mentor and friend Art Laffer, who joined me on this trip, I think is going to be working
with that government. It's only a $30 billion economy. Can you believe that?
Wow. That's crazy.
And here we're talking and they're going after, they're being very progressive.
They're putting in tax policies
that are going to encourage innovation.
So I think that's a very big idea.
Think about that.
El Salvador, the entire country, 30 billion.
Wow, time to buy some real estate in El Salvador.
Yeah.
Wow.
Honestly, and I wish other nation states would follow suit here.
What an incredible gift to your populace to actually provide them a future.
Argentina is moving in this direction.
We've talked to the economics ministers there.
They're not ready to go the Bitcoin route in the way that President Bukele is, but they're
moving in that direction.
They're thinking about it.
And then the other insurance policy is for anyone,
and high net worth individuals,
but anyone as a protection against confiscation of wealth,
whether that's inflation or outright confiscation
because of corruption.
And that is the story of South and Central America, unfortunately, and an important one.
Are you tracking anything that would disrupt Bitcoin?
Are you concerned at all?
I mean, US politics are interesting.
We just saw a rather shaky presidential debate.
We'll see what goes there.
I don't want to talk about it.
But it's interesting.
I was meeting with a minister out of Saudi Arabia and who was telling me in, I don't
want to say in confidence, but he was saying that his understanding was the
US really wanted to block the continued growth and proliferation of Bitcoin and
I can't imagine that that's possible anymore do you? Yeah it's we don't think
it's possible and it's it's so interesting how surreptitiously Bitcoin really has got into the hands of 50
to 60 million Americans and has become an election year issue.
In fact, for many voters, it is the election issue.
And that is why for the Financial Innovation Technology Act of
the 21st century, so FIT 21, I was able to attract 76 Democrats. I think
when the Republicans basically turned this into an election year issue, whether except accepting
campaign donations in crypto or saying that they would protect the right for self custody.
That's a big one.
That's a very big one for Bitcoin.
And we're very much aligned, even though we have an ETF and that could be a centralization
vector.
We think both are true.
Self-custody for the early adopters and those who learn more about the ecosystem.
But then just getting people into understanding what this is, how powerful this movement is, that is the role of a spot
Bitcoin ETF because once you own a spot Bitcoin ETF, you want to learn even more about it.
You'll want to understand the risk profile and return profile.
It's the easy button for those of you who want to get into Bitcoin.
Your predictions or your team's predictions for 2025, where do you see Bitcoin going?
Yeah, we tend not to do one year, but if we're in the middle of the bull market, I think the next
spur is going to be the platforms putting the spot Bitcoin ETF on it.
So, and I do think that will happen this year.
We were told by some of our prospective clients,
the platforms themselves,
that they would need six to nine months to evaluate it.
So here we are entering the six month. So I would expect
in the fall, one or more will put the A spot Bitcoin ETF or many of them on their platforms.
And I think that will be the next wish then. You know, it's interesting. All they have to do. I remember in the last, I think it was the last having.
Many people, you know, we went through the having and everybody waited for a pop and
it didn't happen.
Well, first of all, it didn't happen because there's a lot of anticipatory buying into
it.
But I've, I've watched it kind of, you know, gestate, shall we say,
and then all of a sudden.
So those two could coincide in the fourth quarter
of this year.
It could be pretty exciting.
All those platforms need to do is spend an hour
with Mike Saylor, and I'm sure they'll accelerate there.
Well, maybe not.
Yeah, okay.
They're risk averse, so they don't, they want, they don't, and Mike is an incredible
evangelist for the space, but that doesn't feel safe evangelism.
It has to, you know, I'd like to think that our research, and we've done a number of white
papers, our first one starting in 2015, I'd like to think that that kind of methodical approach and studying of the subject and someone
like Art Laffer who he couldn't be more excited about Bitcoin because for him, he really believes
that, you know, the Fed, many people feel that they have managed monetary policy
over the years.
So we've prevented terrible things from happening.
If you look what happened before the Fed came about in 1913, what happened then is prices
were stable.
We're on the gold standard,
and the economy was very volatile,
and you ran into booms and busts,
but they were very quick.
They were over in weeks.
We lead up for years to a crash,
an 08, 09 poster child for that,
and here we are again.
We had zero interest rates.
And, you know, I wonder what the fallout from private equity,
private credit, you know, putting enormous sums into real
estate and then leveraging it up.
We're starting to see the fallout, whether offices.
And the post COVID, right, with the office exodus.
And multifamily, multifamily now, even in the areas where there's been large in migration.
So the sun belt, we're beginning to see multifamily in excess.
So we're going to, we'll continue to see, you know, crises, I think.
Hopefully nothing like 08-09.
I don't think so.
But still, you know, 0% for a very long period of time leads to reaching for yield, which
leads to bad behavior.
Yeah, gluttony, I think is the term that I would put towards that.
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Let's go to our third subject, my favorite,
and it's the disruptive tech conversation.
And you and I share that DNA and that fascination
and that focus.
I put into that category for our conversation today
humanoid robots.
I wanna talk about Tesla's autonomous robot taxi,
which is a huge, huge deal. I don't think people realize how big the opportunity is there.
And you have, obviously, with the work that you've done. And then Biotech with Alpha Fold.
And I want to get your thoughts on the sort of
the biotech winter and if that's over. So let's begin with with humanoid robots, shall we?
So we've got
we've got Tesla bot, also known as Optimus. We've got Figure and Figure 2. We've got
out of China, we've got Unitree. And by my count, there's like 30 other humanoid
robots that are reasonably well capitalized. We've got Vinod Kosteloff saying we'll have a billion by 2040.
Elon, Brett Adcock is saying maybe closer to 10 billion by 2040. I asked a
friend of mine, I said what's it gonna be like when you've got a humanoid robot
walking down the street? And he says normal. Well you know it's so interesting that he says that because
we walk down the street with our air pods on and we're all talking. I remember when cell phones
first came out. I was an early adopter because they were so useful, so important, but I would
not talk on the street because people would think I was crazy. You know, so I agree with that.
People talking to themselves.
Yeah, I do agree with that.
We think it's a $25 trillion market broken down half between manufacturing and half non-manufacturing.
Sam Kores has done a lot of work on it.
Yes, Brett Adcock, we went to Charlie Roberts,
our Chief Investment Strategist, and I went to-
Well, I love Charlie, he's amazing.
Yeah. Yeah.
And we went, and his specialty, of course, is multi-omics.
Biotech. Yeah, absolutely.
But we went to see Figure AI, and it is amazing.
And I think rumors this week are to see Figure AI and it is amazing.
And I think rumors of this week are, they have been courting two very large companies,
testing with them and they may have sealed a deal.
Not sure about that, that's rumor mill stuff,
but it's starting to move very quickly, no doubt about it.
Yeah, I was over it with Brett.
My venture fund is an investor in figure and I had a chance to, we've all seen figure one
and I had a chance to see figure two and plans for figure three and the speed of innovation
there is amazing.
I mean, I said to him, I haven't seen anything with this level of energy and iterative innovation since I was at SpaceX on the Falcon 1 days,
and they were literally iterating as rapidly as they possibly could.
It's amazing.
Yes, and Optimus, I think the other, I think this came out this week or else it's another one of those rumors, but
now Optimus is starting to work in Tesla's factories. So, I think they have... And with a
$10,000 price tag? I mean, so now like that's the question. I love Elon's optimism. We both have an
abundance mindset and optimistic mindset for sure and and I think
Maybe his timeframes are becoming a little more realistic, but
$10,000 now I have to imagine, you know if you price a optimist robot by weight and complexity compared to a car
Yeah, $10,000 if a model Y is running at you know 30 or 40 K
That's probably appropriate if it's $10,000 and you can finance it like you do a car, that means you've got a 24-7
humanoid robot in your house or apartment for 100 bucks a month.
That's insane.
Right.
So, our work, and as you know, we use rights law.
And what we have found is that in the industrial...
Define Wright's law for folks.
Oh, okay, sure.
Well, it's a relative of Moore's law.
Moore's law is a function of time.
And it worked very well in the semiconductor industry for years.
Now that semiconductors have hit up
against the laws of physics, it's not working so well. What is working well is Wright's
law, even in the semiconductor industry. Wright's law is not a function of time. It's a function
of units. And it says for every cumulative doubling in the number of units produced in this new technology,
costs decline by a consistent percentage rate.
And what we're finding is that in the industrial robot space,
that is the steepest cost decline.
It's 50% for every cumulative doubling. Now, what's fascinating
about industrial robots, again, you'll see this in big ideas, is that I think in all
of the world today, there are only 700 or 800,000 industrial robots. So we're at a very
low base from which we're starting this cumulative doubling. So one to two, two to four, four to eight, and so forth.
Very low base.
And the reason there are only 700 or 800,000
is they're locked up in cages because they're so dangerous.
Now, of course, with sensor technology, that is changing.
That's a huge gating factor here.
And that's why we do expect to see billions over time.
So based on our industrial robot cost decline work,
I think Elon is close to the mark.
Yeah.
And I think, again, the implications of this, right,
where everybody, this is your homemaker in one sense, your cook, your elderly care,
your baby care.
I mean, I don't think we will see that, but if you've got AGI, and of course, the robot
revolution is riding on top of the wave of AI 100%.
And then you've got incredible capability coming and the question becomes you're either gonna see this as a
Dystopian future or you're gonna see it as a utopian opportunity, you know, I don't know if you know the
gentlemen side guru
Who is a I don't know?
the gentleman Sadguru who is a... I don't know him personally. So Sadguru, I was on stage with him and he said something and he said, listen, exponential technology is the means by which
humanity takes a vacation from survival. And that just really struck me. It was a beautiful,
beautiful statement, right? So we spend all of our time struggling and surviving and technology is the means by which we can
relax. Now the question is what do we do with our time? You know, can we find newer
higher purposes? Can we up-level humanity in a way that we use those robots and
that intellectual capacity to do even more extraordinary things?
Yeah, I think people were asking the same thing in the early 1900s, right?
Late 1800s, early 1900s around farming and the reason for being and couldn't imagine
how their lives were going to change.
And that was the last time we've seen multiple innovation platforms evolve at the same time,
telephone, electricity, internal combustion engine.
And, you know, many people thought jobs were going to disappear.
Tractors, right?
They were just, there weren't going to be any jobs.
Well, they forgot about human ingenuity and how creative we are and how resourceful we
are.
And I think we have no idea the kinds of jobs
that are going to be created in the next 10 years.
We have no idea.
In the early 1990s, with the early days of the internet,
we couldn't even imagine Uber or Airbnb.
We just couldn't imagine it.
It was impossible, right?
So.
I agree with you. Let's go to a subject that that you're you've been speaking passionately about and I fully endorse your
passion and love the research which is on Tesla's robotaxis. We
have an announcement coming up shortly, but a lot of news
there.
Talk to us about what's coming, what the implications are, because it's huge.
It is huge.
And there are so many doubters.
It's very interesting.
I think the most important, one of the most important pieces of work, I'm not sure if
I shared it with you, although it is in Big Ideas, is the safety work.
I saw the graphs in Big Ideas.
And again, by the way, where do people go to download the Big Ideas document?
It's ARK-Invest.com.
And in there, you will see a chart showing the safety of a cruise automation car, a Waymo car, the average car in the US, a Tesla car
before FSD, and a Tesla car after FSD.
I'll just give two of those.
The average car on the road in the US has an accident every 200,000 miles. The average car with old FSD, think six months ago,
has an accident every 3.2 million miles.
200 to 300.
Volvo built its brand.
A brand.
It's used for sound safety.
I think Tesla, I think we're trying to tell this story,
but that Tesla should be using this. So we believe that with unboxed manufacturing,
with this August 8th announcement, Elon has been sending messages to his employee base, his supplier base,
to the extent he has not verticalized, and to ultimate consumers
that we're getting very close to the days of a robo taxi driving us from point A
to point B safely, quickly, and cheaply, inexpensively.
So as you know, we've put out our model.
And last year, we assumed that our price target, that two-thirds of it would be due to a robo taxi. Our confidence that robo taxi is going to launch
within the next 18 months, maybe two years, is very high.
So much so that you'll also see in the Tesla report
that we put out, that you can find at the same site,
that we would be shocked if it isn't within two years.
There's the probability of later,
we think has diminished significantly.
Given the breakthroughs in AI,
how quickly Tesla is harnessing them,
how much data it is continuing to collect.
And Tesla said, or Elon said in his shareholder
during the shareholders meeting recently that the
disengagements are happening so rarely now with full self-driving that he's worried about
boredom you know of the humans who are overseeing this.
They're not finding disengagement. So they are getting very
close. Unboxed manufacturing means they will be manufacturing both human-driven cars and
robo-taxis in the same facility, no more assembly line, completely new first principles thinking,
and they'll toggle between them based on demand. So we are getting close.
And we also think we'll learn more about Master Plan 4
on October 8th.
Might be wrong on that,
but because he didn't put out Master Plan 3
more than maybe a year or a year and a half ago.
So, but that's how quickly the world is changing.
I think, I mean, Tesla for me is the unsung hero of the decade ahead.
And so your position there is fully validated in my brain.
And it comes from the work they're doing, obviously, in their vehicles and their lower
price vehicles.
And really, I mean, they're going to decimate internal combustion engine cars.
It's just going to be cheaper, faster, better, higher performance vehicles, period.
Yeah, sorry, it's been, again, I've watched the traditional auto manufacturers. They've
rallied in here. Why? Because they're pulling back on electric, they're pulling
back on autonomous, and they're raising dividends and increasing
share repurchases.
That's just more nails in the coffin.
They're manipulated.
It's manipulation in the wrong direction.
But what's coming on top of that, of course, is Tesla is an energy company.
Tesla is an AI company.
Tesla is a humanoid robot company.
Tesla is a replacement for Uber and all of these things, any one of them can double,
triple, get close to 10Xing the valuation of the company.
So the question you have to ask yourself is, will Elon fall this time?
Will he not be able to perform? And I think the recent pay package he received,
or at least received validation of,
is all the motivation he needed to push through.
And he will be, we talked about this last time,
and it's now even more evident, he
will become the first trillionaire hands down, period.
And I don't think that's very far away.
Yeah, we would absolutely, we would not be
surprised. Tesla alone and in our model, we don't include much for Optimus. We just assume that
Optimus becomes, you know, a huge productivity booster within the Tesla organization. We're not
assuming any outside sales at all. So, you know, that's a call option. Energy storage is much more of a call option for us. Elon thinks it can be as big or bigger than autonomous. We would find that hard to believe because we think the autonomous opportunity, $8 to $10 trillion. This is for the entire ecosystem, not just Tesla, in revenue generation.
This is including China.
And of course, Tesla is now going to be participating in this space in China.
$8 to $10 trillion.
It is some people say, you know, we're debating this ourselves.
You know, did China invite them in because China wants to reverse engineer what they're doing because
Baidu and Apollo are not up to snuff yet?
Or are they letting Tesla partner with Baidu for mapping reasons?
There's a big divide there. I tend to think China wants to be first on robo-taxis, meaning more ubiquitous robo-taxis,
and they want to learn more from Tesla, just like they did with EVs.
Speaking of this, let's not forget China is developing their own humanoid robots as well. We've seen Unitree there, which was announced at $16,000 price tag.
The tariff doubled it to $32,000 and then Elon came out at $10,000. I found that within a month of it, a month of the announcements fascinating.
But it's moving fast and again, we have to realize all of this is riding on top
of the AI wave. Right? Another field riding on top of AI is the
whole biotech world that you and I love so much. Yeah. How are you feeling about that?
Well, it's been crucified in the market. This is a classic.
Healthcare analysts don't like technology. It moves too quickly, break things. In a regulatory
industry environment, you can get in trouble. And tech analysts don't like healthcare because there's too much regulation,
too many reimbursement obstacles.
And so we have this,
what is brewing in the multiomics field
is probably more transformative than in any other field.
Sure, transportation, we just talked about it,
that's pretty transformative,
but we've kind of gotten
the hang of what this is going to be because of Uber and Lyft, longer run. We know we got it that conceptually, but the idea of being able to diagnose cancer before stage one, thanks to
the convergence of sequencing technologies and artificial intelligence, and then we'll be able to cure disease
because of CRISPR gene editing.
I don't think the market believes that.
It's biblical.
It's biblical.
It is, but what's so interesting to me about this
is CRISPR therapeutics has two of its therapies,
one for beta thalassemia, one for sickle cell disease.
They have been approved not only by the U.S., but also by the U.K. and Europe. And back then,
I'll never forget, I was, um, had the privilege of interviewing Jennifer Doudna before she won
the Nobel Prize, uh, for CRISPR Cas9.
And I remember back then she was saying,
look, I don't want to talk about efficacy at all.
All I care about is safety.
That is the thing we have to prove here.
So here we are, not even, well, maybe roughly four years later,
not only have we proven it out on safety,
but efficacy, beta thalassemia, that cured.
Yes, single injection. Single. One. One. And this man, the first trial participant, now in the trial
for almost four years, used to go to the hospital 17 times per year on an emergency basis for blood transfusions.
Now, here we are.
It's been approved.
It's a low single digit billion dollar company.
This is a very big idea.
And yet the market has no time, no time.
And what they're looking at, it's so interesting
because I think one of the Collison brothers
just came out with a new gene editing technique on bacteria.
And so this week, that was the scare story.
Well, that's gonna take a decade, you know?
Meanwhile, we can cure one disease after another after another with existing technologies.
You know, the marketplace has done a...
Well, it's interesting that the entire pharmaceutical biotech industry has gotten beat up because
of not having revenues, even though the market potential is massive.
I've seen this in my own companies and it's awful.
It's better to be a private company and grow than being a public company because you're
being beat up and trading below cash levels.
It's crazy.
But what I think the market hasn't realized and what a lot of my work is right now, Cathy's
on longevity, it's the big, there are two big markets on the planet, AI and longevity.
You know, what would, what would someone pay to add 20 or 30 healthy years, real vital healthy
years on the end of their life? I think it would be the majority of their net worth. I think that
they would pay 80% of what they had in the bank account if they had really
the ability to add decades of health on their life.
If you think about it that way, it's a huge marketplace.
Not only that, there's going to be a massive shift in where investors allocate healthcare
dollars.
If we are curing disease, right, then we're done.
I mean, that's an exaggeration.
It's gonna take years and years,
but what are these big pharma companies?
They're huge distribution SG&A engine,
sales, general and administrative.
And the salesperson has to go in year after year
to make sure that his or her company's drugs
are top of mind.
Well, guess what?
You're not gonna need them, right?
No, there's a big disruption coming on the top of the food,
on the pharma industry.
I had dinner with Demis Hacibis,
the CEO of DeepMind, Sir Demis, I should say.
And we talked about AlphaFold 3.
So AlphaFold 1, as you remember, was the AI engine able to predict the exact folding of
a protein based on amino acid sequence, a super competing problem for 50 years.
So AlphaFold 3 gets released a few months ago and it can now predict
the interaction of all molecules, like here's a carbohydrate, a protein, a, you know, whatever,
and sugar molecule, and how they interact together. And where they're going next is amazing.
They want to be able to create an AI model of an entire cell, and then an AI model of a tissue and an organ,
and an AI model of you,
to know that this drug works just perfectly for you.
And the secret of why do some people make it to 120
and some people die at 70,
it's not random chance,
it's in the biology of the human.
And we're able to understand that.
We have the information and year by year,
each of us will find more mutations
and the sooner we find them now that we can,
and we couldn't before,
the sooner we'll be able to correct them,
edit those programming errors
out.
So, yeah, it's going to transform healthcare.
You know, it's been fascinating to watch.
I just told you what we think is going to happen to the large pharma complex.
Yeah, sure.
But they have the cash.
Yes.
This market is treating companies with big cash and…
The GLP-1, I mean, it's crazy what's happened with the
GLP-1 drugs, making the most valuable companies in the planet.
Right.
Well, and that was discovered brute force the old way, right?
And more power to them it is.
But what if we cure diabetes?
CRISPR therapeutics has diabetes, both type 1 and type 2 on its
roadmap and if Sam Kulkarni at CRISPR thinks that it's possible, I believe it. And you
know these are the new platform companies in a sense, you know, this reminds me of Genentech.
I remember the wrestling around Genentech in the early days.
And Genentech launched the biotech age.
The market's not even really looking at this, and it is astonishing.
And I know one of the showstoppers right now is, oh my gosh, this cure, one and done, is
$2 million.
Well, you have to do the cost benefit analysis
of not going to the emergency room 17 times per year
on an emergency basis.
And we do have to look at value-based pricing, okay?
Maybe it's $100,000 or whatever upfront.
And then for every year that this disease does not recur,
the insurance company should be willing to pay.
We need new business models.
Absolutely. Absolutely.
Absolutely.
That's what's happening here.
But what you said is really important just now.
These are cures versus amelioration of the problem.
So the pharma industry has survived
by not curing diseases,
but by treating the symptoms of the disease.
And so once you get the disease, like AIDS, for example, we're not curing AIDS right now.
We do have the ability with CRISPR to cure someone who has an HIV infection.
We can go in there and disrupt it and it's coming.
But we're going to give you drugs for the rest of your life.
And it's your customer for the next 50 years.
Congratulations and welcome aboard.
Yeah. and it's your customer for the next 50 years. Congratulations and welcome aboard.
Yeah.
Well, you know, it's interesting in the Hep C world,
this is where we got the sticker shock first.
It was Gilead, Solvaldi was the drug
and everyone was up in arms, right?
No, we're not paying that.
Well, the system is one of the biggest drugs out there.
The system is paying because the biggest drugs out there. The system is
paying because it is saving so much in the long run. Yeah. So I think that's, as you
say, many people do not, most people don't like change. And especially in the healthcare
space, investors, they just know phase one, phase two, phase three.
That's what they know.
Cures, they don't know.
It just doesn't register almost.
You see, let me make this commercial for you
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of the investor thought leaders out there,
Kathy, in a beautiful way.
You're not going after the Mag-6, right?
You're going because they're the dominant players today.
That's great.
But there's a thousand extraordinary young companies
that are innovative, hungry,
and iterating at a much faster rate.
And that's true both on the AI tech side
as well as the biopharmacide.
And your ability through your research team
to find those companies, identify them early,
because they are going to disrupt the...
My analogy here is the dinosaurs of 65 million years ago, right?
So these dinosaurs are fat and lumbering and moving along,
and this asteroid comes and strikes the Earth,
and it changes the the environment so rapidly
That the dinosaurs are unable to adapt and it's the furry mammals that are agile
They're able to adapt to this rapidly changing environment
that are the ones that survive and thrive and the diet the asteroid striking the earth today is
AI and these exponential technologies that are changing the game faster than,
you know, you can snap the head of a CEO of a large old style company.
It's a great analogy. And so we do look at companies like Nvidia.
We get information. Where are they choosing to invest themselves in their venture fund?
And so recursion therapeutics, perfect example.
But, you know, and is enabling drug discovery, you know,
at warp speed compared to other,
compared to traditional methods.
And again, involving AI very importantly.
One thing I will say, and this I just found out this week, very hopeful that Roche, Roche,
some people call it, Genentech there, is using it because we've been puzzled.
Why aren't these companies racing after these new ways of doing things?
It has to do with talent and the kind of talent they have.
And there will have to be a changing of the guard,
just like there was from pure chemistry
to molecular biology, right?
Now you have to bring technology into it.
And the way we started this was healthcare and technology
in the investment world.
Like it seems as though that the types of investors clash or the analysts
clash, you know, they're, they're, they're, they're, they operate at different
cadences and they have different risk tolerances.
And that's what I think we're dealing with, with your companies, with our
companies, but truth will win out.
Yes. we're dealing with your companies, with our companies, but truth will win out. Yes, and exponential tech and innovation
will disrupt it all.
And it's not, just to close us out here,
it's not something if you're,
wherever you are in your life cycle,
as an entrepreneur, as a parent,
this is not something that's 10 years out or 20 years out. It's the next two or three years.
This is the most exciting time ever to be alive.
Kathy, congratulations on a 10-year run for ARK Invest. The next 10 years are going to be awesome.
They're going to be wild, Peter. And thank you for all you do to enlighten people.
It's so important.
Get on the right side of change, right?
Yeah.
Yeah.
And I enjoy our friendship and looking forward to seeing you next March,
but more so to see where you're making your bets and tell us real quick,
where do folks go to find out about some of your funds?
Yes, so the site I gave you before,
arc-invest.com is our research site.
Our fund site is arc-funds.com.
And that includes both our ETFs and our venture fund.
Fantastic.
Kathy, have a beautiful day. Thank you so much. Thank you so much.