Planetary Radio: Space Exploration, Astronomy and Science - An Encore for Sir Arthur and Another New Extrasolar Planet

Episode Date: July 7, 2003

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This is Planetary Radio. Thank you. bets, a new trivia contest question, and some exciting news about yet another extrasolar planet from the Planetary Society's Amir Alexander. Let's get started with Emily and a new listener question that will put us in orbit. Hi, I'm Emily Lakdawalla with questions and answers. A listener asked, How do scientists calculate a comet or asteroid's orbit? And how do they figure out what areas on Earth are best for observing the body? How is it all timed so perfectly?

The method that scientists use to track comets and asteroids is a perfect example of how we are still indebted to Copernicus, Kepler, and Newton and their works dating back to the 16th and 17th centuries. The breakthrough made by Kepler and Newton was to show that all planetary bodies move in ellipses around the sun. An ellipse is not just any oval-shaped path. It is a mathematical expression with very specific properties. Today, if we detect an asteroid approaching Earth, we need only fit its observed position onto an elliptical path with the Sun at one focus of the ellipse and then we can project where it will go. In principle, as few as three precisely observed positions, measured at three different times,

are adequate to determine the orbital ellipse. In practice, though, observations have errors, so dozens or hundreds of observations may be used to tie down the orbit. To learn more about how we figure out orbits, stay tuned to Planetary Radio. It was late last March that we called up one of the greatest figures in the history of science fiction. While the years have taken their inevitable physical toll on Sir Arthur Clarke, we quickly learned that he has lost none of his towering intellect, matched by his curiosity and humor.

Here again is that conversation. his curiosity and humor. Here again is that conversation. We are extremely honored to be joined on the telephone by Sir Arthur C. Clark, who is speaking to us, or will be speaking to us, from his home in Sri Lanka. Sir Arthur, thanks very much for joining us on Planetary Radio. Nice to talk to you. A couple of your fellow advisory council members for the Planetary Society, Kim Stanley Robinson and David Brin, have been nominated for a certain British science fiction award.

We thought, well, let's bring them on the radio show. And then we thought, well, why not get the award's namesake? So here you are. I wonder, why did you decide to help this award get underway back in 1986? I haven't the faintest idea. Anything beyond last week. It's the late Jurassic to me. And I'm involved in quite a number of awards, too,

in science fact, science fiction, and elsewhere. But I'm pretty happy to have this one going. In fact, as I was doing research on the web, I found another Arthur C. Clarke Award, apparently, that was just handed out for this year, something to do with engineering. So I guess you do have a few out there. Are you familiar with the nominees this year? I don't really know what your continuing involvement is with that competition.

Well, they just tell me what's happening, and I'm sorry to say that I do practically no reading now. I haven't read a novel, I think, for a year or so, and I still don't see any of the science fiction magazines. All I do see is Locus, which keeps me up to date on what is happening in the science fiction field. And, of course, I do read the magazines like Discover, which is sitting on my desk at the moment, and Sky and Telescope and New Scientist. So I'm fairly well in touch with the real science. We should say, though, that the fact that you're not reading other people's novels

doesn't mean that you've stopped writing them. After we take a break in a few minutes, we hope you'll talk to us about your current project that's underway, a very intriguing title, The Last Theorem. You do occupy an extremely distinguished spot in the world of science fiction,

well, in the world, really. And I wonder, when you hear from writers who came to the world of science fiction long after you did, people like David Brennan, Kim Stanley Robinson,

I mean, do they treat you like sort of a living god or a mentor or just one of the guys? Well, I hope they don't. I hope they treat me like an ordinary human being. But I'm sorry to say I haven't had any contact with anyone for a long time. I don't travel anymore. Occasionally, you know, friends come through Sri Lanka.

But, you know, talking about the distinguished science fiction writers, I've got a long email about Stanislas Lem. Now, if Lem wrote in English, none of us would have had a chance. I'm not familiar with his work. Has it been translated? Oh, yes, a bunch of it has been translated.

It's been filmed, Solaris, an extremely interesting film. Yes, although I do hear that the original Russian film was far superior to the recent American one. That's what I gather. I've seen Tarkovsky's film, the Russian one, but I haven't seen the American one. I hardly see any films nowadays. I get a few DVDs. I'm happy to say I've got the DVDs of Lord of the Rings, the first two are out. I knew Tolkien quite well, well, fairly well,

and I'm very pleased to see this extraordinary revival of interest in his work. Tremendous success. Let me tell you one of my clearest memories of Tolkien. I was sitting next to him at lunch once, and he pointed to his editor at the end of the table, a very small man, and said, that's where I got the idea for The Hobbits. That's a great story. Well, that would make a whole other wonderful interview to do with you sometime.

I wonder about the other greats in science fiction, the people who were your contemporaries and colleagues, the Asimov and Heinlein and Bradbury, who, of course, is still with us. You do certainly have your place in that pantheon of the greats of science fiction of the 20th century and the 21st. Do you ever ponder that? I mean, these were your friends, weren't they? Oh, yes. You know, one nice thing about the science fiction world, I don't recall any really bad enmities.

We all seem, possibly because we were a beleaguered minority and had to stand together. I guess if you haven't read that much lately, it's difficult to talk to you about how science fiction has changed over the years, but certainly the character of science fiction has changed a great deal. Well, even the cyberpunk sort of novels

are almost passé now, but a lot has happened since the period that a lot of people still refer to as the Golden Age, when you and the others I mentioned were very active. Yes, and none of us are around now, but the extraordinary exception is Jack Williamson, who's just celebrating not his 75th birthday, but the 75th anniversary of his first published book.

Oh, my. Mm-hmm. That's incredible. You said you are reading Locus, so you are keeping somewhat abreast of what's happening in the science fiction world. Does it seem that it is as lively or as important as it was 30, 40 years ago? Well, it's changed, of course, because so much has happened that we discussed.

Much of science fiction I grew up with is no ancient history in the real world. Well, the best of it, of course, still holds up very, very well, I can assure you. And, of course, a lot of your stories have places very, very firmly ensconced in that group.

I hate to ask such a cliché question, but before we leave this area of the science fiction of the past and move on to what you're currently up to, one of those questions that I'm sure you've been asked something like 6.02 times 10 to the 23rd times, what among your works are your favorites? Well, I change from time to time, but the Songs of Distant Earth, I think, is the one I'm fondest

of, although my best is probably Childhood's End, is what everybody tells me. And The City and the Stars too is that sort of trio. I wouldn't say I'm fond of one more than the other. It's just, you know, my attitude changes from time to time.

I suppose that the way most people who would not call themselves science fiction readers, the way that they know you the best, of course, is 2001, followed, at least on the screen, by 2010. And, of course, for those of us who've read them, a couple of other books. Are they also sort of up there in your estimation, or do you put them below the childhood? Oh, no, I'm very happy. I just had an email from Stanley's brother-in-law, and they're planning to get, let me just check on the screen, oh, it's switched off.

Stanley Kubrick. Yeah, they're digging up some old black and white footage that was made when we were making the film, and the BBC's going to do something on this. You know, I still have a popular science magazine from, must have been about 1967, with wonderful photographs of the sets that Stanley Kubrick built. Yeah, yeah. Oh, yes, there's a lot of tremendous amount of coverage and there's a book about it called Filming the Future.

Look, I'd have to hang up now for a few minutes. Could you call me back in about ten minutes? Yes, I'd be happy to. We're going to take a break and then we'll return in just a minute or so with Sir Arthur C. Clarke. This is Buzz Aldrin. When I walked on the moon, I knew it was just the beginning of humankind's great adventure in the solar system. That's why I'm a member of the Planetary Society, the world's largest space interest

group. The Planetary Society is helping to explore Mars. We're tracking near-Earth asteroids and comets. We sponsor the search for life on other worlds. And we're building the first-ever solar sail. You can learn about these adventures and exciting new discoveries from space exploration in the Planetary Report. The Planetary Report is the Society's full-color magazine. It's just one of many member benefits. You can learn more by calling 1-877-PLANETS. That's toll-free, 1-877-752-6387.

And you can catch up on space exploration news and developments at our exciting and informative website, PlanetarySociety.org. The Planetary Society, exploring new worlds. Planetary Radio continues with our very special guest on the phone from his home in Sri Lanka is Sir Arthur C. Clark. Sir Arthur, I was hoping that, as I said at the beginning, if we could

talk for a couple of minutes. I know you're very busy. We only have a few more that we can speak. But if we could hear a little bit about what you're up to now. You did send email making some very intriguing comments about the new what you're up to now. You did send email making some very intriguing comments about the new novel you're working on.

Well, I'm always glad to get a commercial. The novel is called The Last Theorem, and it's about really Fermat's theorem, which baffled mathematicians for 300 years,

is one of the simplest things you can imagine. Of course, everybody knows the relationship that two squares can be added together to give a third square. The best example is three squared plus four squared equals five squared, okay? But the problem is, does this happen for any higher powers? Can you have two cubes adding up to a third cube? And there seems to be an obvious reason why this shouldn't happen, since there's an infinite number of squares that do this.

Well, Fermat himself, about 300 years ago, said he found a wonderful proof that no such relationships could exist. But it was too big to go in the margin of this book. And for 300 years, mathematicians have been trying to find this proof. And in the last decade, a young Englishman, Andrew Wiles, did discover a proof. His proof is about 150 pages long. So obviously it couldn't have been the proof that Fermat said he'd got. Anyway, it's a great mystery.

And my novel, which takes place in, which opens in Ceylon, it's Sri Lanka, which is unusual for my novels, as you said, in space. It begins here in Sri Lanka, but ends up on Mars, and it's about a young Tamil mathematician who finds a simple proof from that last theorem. And I've written about a quarter of it now, and that's my main project, the last theorem. You know, I do remember one other novel of yours in which Sri Lanka played a very important part, and it's a concept that you've been very excited about for many years,

the space elevator. Yes, that is now taken more and more seriously, particularly since we have the material, C60, carbon-60, which would make it possible. And here's an amazing coincidence, which I've mentioned many times already. When I recorded the Founders of Paradise on an old 12-inch record, you remember then? Sure. Well, the one thing about those records, there was a lot of room on the back for sleeve notes. And the sleeve notes with a picture of the elevator were done by Buckminster Fuller himself.

Oh, no kidding. And he never lived to see the discovery of the material named after him that would make it possible. Isn't that an extraordinary thing? That absolutely is. Of course, the material will be a C60, also known as Fullerenes. Exactly, exactly. That is a nice lead into what maybe can be the last topic

that we'll pick up in this short conversation. The last time we spoke, which was during the Planetary Society's Planet Fest in 1999, I closed by asking you, since you have some success as a futurist and visionary, I wondered where you would point to, what you would have us watch for something that might be truly revolutionary. And at that time you said, keep an eye on what's happening with vacuum energy, that odd quantum effect. I wonder, do you have any other thoughts you might want to add to that? I still take

that quite seriously and think we should keep an eye on it. We know, we're pretty sure energy is there. Whether it can be tapped is another question. Whether it should be tapped is another question. Whether it should be tapped is yet another. I'm always fond of quoting, I think it's Larry Niven, I'm not quite sure who said, that supernovae are industrial accidents.

Well, I hope it's not an inevitable result of civilization. I trust not. We should let you go. I know that you have many things going on. Would you like to hazard a guess as to when, if all goes well, this new novel, The Last Theorem, might be available to your readers? Oh, dear.

Well, certainly in the coming, you know, I hope, in fact, by about a year from now, if all goes well. I hope to finish it this year, but of course the publishing schedules will determine it. Incidentally, the thing I'm also most involved with now, and I see the new Discover magazine,

which I've not opened yet, has got a headline on the subject, Martian Life. I'm now fairly convinced as a result of the extraordinary images coming from the Mars orbital camera that Mars doesn't harbor life, it's infested. I certainly hope you're right.

Well, I'm not sure. We may be in trouble when we land. Well, that's, I suppose, in one way, the kind of trouble you'd want. We were, in fact, talking about that on this show just a couple of weeks ago, and, in fact, talking about SETI in just the previous program.

It's an interesting time to be alive and watching the world of science, isn't it? Well, one of my chapter headings in New York is that old Chinese curse, may you live in interesting times. Which I think is a good corollary to any sufficiently advanced technology as in distinguishable from magic.

Arthur C. Clarke, thank you so much for taking a few minutes to join us here on Planetary Radio. We wish you continued great success, particularly with that new novel that we'll be looking forward to. Thank you very much. Good luck. Take care, and good morning for where you are. Thank you.

Arthur C. Clarke has joined us on Planetary Radio, and we will continue in just a minute. Amir Alexander is a historian of science, science writer, and web editor for the Planetary Society. And he also very closely follows the stories that come out constantly about newly discovered extrasolar planets, planets circling stars other than our own. And, Amir, you have a nice piece right up top on the homepage of the Planetary Society this week about yet another of these planets, Ho-Hum. Is there something that we should be excited about with this new discovery? Yes, this is a very interesting extrasolar planet,

unlike any of the 100-odd planets that have already been discovered, because this one has the outlines of a solar system that seems very much like our own. Most of the other extrasolar planets that have been discovered are very, very different from anything that we were familiar with from our own solar system, but this one seems to have at least the outlines of a solar system that could look a little bit like ours. And really that's the goal, right? To look for solar systems that come closer and closer to our own home system. Absolutely.

The ultimate goal of the search for exosolar planets is to find other Earths, planets that are like our own Earth, a small rocky planet teeming with life. So describe this new system. It's still, we haven't really found what you could call an Earth-like planet yet. No, no. Our detection methods are not yet sensitive enough to find anything like an actual planet as small as ours. But what this system does have is a star that is very much like our sun and a very large

planet about twice the size of jupiter that is orbiting in a distance that is about two-thirds of the way of the distance of our jupiter from the sun and that is actually the closest we have yet found to a system that is that is like ours all the other exosolar planets we have found so far have been very large planets, somewhat like our Jupiter, but orbiting very, very close to their star, really at the very, very shadow of their own star, completing a revolution in a matter of days or weeks. Wow.

Unlike our Jupiter, which takes 12 years. And giant planets like that, finding them that close to a star, doesn't bode well for Earth-like planets in that system, right? No, no, it absolutely does not, because from everything we know about the formation of our own solar system, the development of an Earth-like planet is really dependent on the fact that there is a giant planet like Jupiter orbiting out there at about five astronomical units away from the

sun, astronomical units being the mean distance of the Earth from the sun. That protects the Earth from bombardment by asteroids and by comets, which otherwise plunge repeatedly into the Earth. And according to some models, it actually is responsible for the very possibility of the formation of a planet like the Earth closer to the sun. Then there's also the fact that, as far as we know, those giant planets really orbit near the sun, near their star, those extrasolar planets, because they have migrated from the outer reaches of their solar system.

And we can't imagine how any planet like the Earth would survive such a migration by a giant planet that would move through its orbit towards the sun. So basically the presence of a very large planet orbiting very close to its sun really is bad news. From everything that we know, it is bad news for the existence of a planet like Earth. So things are looking up, apparently, in the search for extrasolar planets. Amir, we're just about out of time for this little preview. We mentioned that there is an article on the homepage of the Planetary Society

where people can learn more. That's right. There is a story there, the very first one on our front page. And there's also, at the very bottom of that story, you can find a link to a list of older stories about extrasolar planets, some of them also of systems that are somewhat like our own. Coming up in the next few weeks, we'll have actually a whole new section about extrasolar planets that you can read about all these, our stories, different detection methods, what has been done, and what remains to be done in the search for extrasolar planets.

Amir Alexander, thanks very much for joining us for this very quick visit to Planetary Radio. Thank you very much. Amir Alexander is a science writer, historian of science, and web editor for the Planetary Society. And as he said, you can see that story about the closest thing yet to a solar system

like our own outside of our solar system. I'm Emily Lakdawalla, back with Q&A. The paths of most asteroids can be determined reasonably accurately just by fitting its observed position onto an elliptical path with the Sun at one focus. But when asteroids approach other large solar system bodies closely, for example, when an asteroid approaches the Earth, the gravitational pull of these bodies can tug the orbital paths of the asteroids out of a perfect Keplerian ellipse. And while it is very easy to predict the motions of two bodies in orbit under mutual gravitation, it turns out to be impossible to write down an exact mathematical prediction of the motions of

three bodies, like the Sun, the Earth, and a near-Earth asteroid. Thankfully, we now have powerful computers that are able to simulate the motions of many bodies, all exerting gravitational tugs on each other, so we are usually able to determine the position of asteroids in space to accuracies of a few tens of miles. And we can project along these orbits to see if the asteroid's orbit will intersect our own planet. Got a question about the universe? Send it to us at planetaryradio at planetary.org. And now, here's Matt with more Planetary Radio. Bruce Betts is back after a week's reprieve from doing What's Up with us. Bruce, welcome

back to the show. Thank you very much, and aloha, Matt. Welcome back from Hawaii. Oh, and it was great out there, too, and the stars were beautiful, the stars and the planets. Excellent. Speaking of planets, Jupiter, if you look really low on the horizon, shortly after the sun sets, you can see it in the west, but it's setting. Basically, the one planet you're after in the night sky these days is Mars.

Mars is going to rise late in're after in the night sky these days is Mars. Mars is going to rise late in the evening in the southeast, and then will be high in the early wee hours of the morning. Brightest thing out there. It is now brighter than the brightest star in the sky series and is characteristically reddish-orange. I go up to strangers and I say, Do you know Mars is really bright right now? You should look at Mars. And some of them say,

get away from me. But don't let that scare the rest of you out there. Spread the word. Mars, it's coming and we're going. That's right. This week in space history. 1979, I have two very different things happen two days apart. July 9th, Voyager 2 flew past Jupiter. July 11th, Skylab reentered over the Indian Ocean in Australia, the U.S.'s space station that crashed back into the atmosphere. Hmm.

Hmm. Yeah, it's pretty exciting. Now it's giddy. Well, it was. I mean, we had it at the time. There were targets on people's T-shirts. It was very anticlimactic. That's right. Shall we targets on people's T-shirts. It was very anticlimactic. That's right.

Shall we move on to random space fact? On the scale that it has been observed with in terms of size, Pluto has the highest bright-dark contrast of any planet. It has more contrast than any other planet on those characteristic scales that has been observed. But we don't know why yet, do we? Because we haven't really had a good look. That's the exciting part. Presumably there's a bunch of icy stuff.

It's pretty darn cold. But why we've got bright and dark, people theorize about, but we don't know much right now. Boy, somebody really ought to send a probe out there. You know, that would be a great idea. You know, it seems like the Planetary Society advocated for that for a while. Oh, wait, there is a Pluto mission now, New Horizons. Gosh. Launching a couple years from now.

What a coincidence. Very exciting. Trivia. Trivia. The last trivia contest was given to us by Sandy Moondust as she sat high atop the Delta II rocket at Cape Canaveral asking us how much bigger her graphite epoxy motors, or solid booster strap-ons, how much bigger in diameter

were those than Biff Starling's? In other words, how much bigger are these strap-on boosters on the 7925 Heavy as opposed to the Boeing Delta II 7925? And as obscure as that sounds, you did tell people that there were hints on our website, the planetary.org website. Indeed. And, yes, and hints from the astrobots themselves. The answer being six inches. How did we do out there in trivia contests?

People did very well. I don't know if they just carry around these facts in their heads or if they did go to our website or someplace else. Or if they snuck up to the rocket and measured. But Lee Valance has been waiting two weeks to hear that he is the winner. Congratulations! Lee Valance, who hails from Japan. He's one of our regulars. And, Lee, you have won.

And what have you won? You've won that Mars 3D poster. And while we're on that topic, we got a nice note from Tyler Ramberg, who I think was the winner just immediately previous to Lee. Tyler sent us a nice note. I guess he got his poster in the mail. He says he loves it, and he never takes off his 3D glasses, which, Tyler, we don't actually recommend as a lifestyle.

But we do not discriminate against it either. Just please do not wear them while driving unless you're driving in a simulated two-dimensional 3D environment. We have a new contest. We do indeed. What is the name of the asteroid Ida's tiny moonlet? When Galileo flew past Ida, it discovered it actually had a little moon rotating about it. What's its name? Would it give away too much to say how big that little moonlet was?

All I remember is that it's really small since it's not a very big asteroid. It's tiny, and it would give away too much to say how big that little moonlet was? Because all I remember is that it's really small since it's not a very big asteroid. It's tiny and it would give away nothing. Nor will I. How do they enter, Bruce? Go to planetary.org. Follow the links to Planetary Radio. It will tell you how to enter the contest and compete so that you too cannot

take your 3D glasses off when you go around the house and out to parties. We have about a minute left. Do you want to give us an Astro Bot update? Biff Starling and Sandy Moondust, Planetary Society Astro Bot Corps Astro Bots on board. The MER missions, Mars Explosion Rover missions. Biff is now over 6 million kilometers away from Earth. Dude, cool.

You do a good impression of Biff. I've been working on it ever since I've gotten to know him. Sandy is still atop a Delta II heavy with those big strap-on boosters because there have been continual delays due to weather and also due to cork insulation on the outside of the main stage having to be replaced. You can learn more about that by reading the Astrobot diaries online

at redroverghostmars.org slash astrobots. That's how they're doing. We look forward to hearing some from them and wish Sandy good luck. She's supposed to launch, actually, currently as we record this, on Sunday evening, the day before we air this, on July 6th. So, Godspeed, Sandy Moondust. And that's it for this week's edition, then, of What's Up? with Bruce Betts, the Director of Projects for

the Planetary Society. Look up in the night sky and think about little furry creatures. Thank you and good night. Planetary Radio will return next week with a brand new featured guest and much more news of our grand and glorious solar system and beyond. We hope you'll join us.

Take care, everyone.