Pod Save America - Can Tim Walz Out-Debate JD Vance?

Episode Date: October 1, 2024

Tim Walz and JD Vance prepare for the last big moment of the campaign: Tuesday's vice presidential debate. Jon, Lovett, and Tommy handicap Walz's strengths and weaknesses and offer their advice on lines of attack. Plus, just a day after threatening a "really violent" police purge, Donald Trump travels to hurricane-ravaged Georgia to lie about Joe Biden and Kamala Harris deliberately holding up aid. Then, legendary strategist James Carville stops by to talk about where the race stands and how Harris can pull out a win.You can support disaster relief efforts for Hurricane Helene by donating now at votesaveamerica.com/helene For a closed-captioned version of this episode, click here. For a transcript of this episode, please email [e-mail] and include the name of the podcast.

Welcome to Pod Save America, I'm Jon Favreau. I'm Jon Lovett. I'm Tommy Vitor. On today's show, Trump says he'll end shoplifting in America with quote, one really violent day. Tim Walz and JD Vance head into Tuesday night's VP debate with the race stuck in a dead heat and the rage in Cajun himself, James Carville,

stops by to talk about the state of the race and the new documentary about his career in democratic politics. But first, as you all know, the death toll from Hurricane Helene is now north of a hundred. There is unbelievable devastation across the southeastern states. And as we're recording this, thousands of people in western North Carolina are still stranded without power, water, or fuel. The normal response to a disaster like this from

political leaders would be to pledge support, send relief, figure out how to immediately help people in need. That's what President Biden is doing. That's what Vice President Harris did when she spoke at FEMA headquarters in DC on Monday. Here's a clip. To everyone who has been impacted by this storm and to all of those of you who are rightly feeling overwhelmed by the destruction and the loss. Our nation is with you. And President Biden and I and all of the folks behind me are with you. We will continue to do everything we can to help you recover and to help you rebuild,

no matter how long it takes. Over the past 24 hours, I have spoken with Governor Kemp of Georgia, Governor Cooper of North Carolina, and many local officials. I have shared with them that we will do everything in our power to help communities respond and recover. And I've shared with them that I plan to be on the ground as soon as possible, but as soon as possible without disrupting any emergency response operations because

that must be the highest priority in the first order of business. So the Republican nominee for president taking a slightly different path even though local officials, as the VP just mentioned, have asked both campaigns to temporarily stay away from the affected areas so that resources aren't diverted from the emergency response. Trump went to Georgia on Monday to quote deliver supplies after he falsely accused the Biden administration and Democratic governor Roy Cooper of quote going out of their way to not help people in Republican areas. Trump also said that Georgia governor Brian Kemp has quote, been having a very hard time

getting the president on the phone, which was a little weird when Governor Kemp then said, he just spoke to the president on Sunday. How shocked were you guys that Trump decided to play politics here? And by play politics, I mean, tell the most easily refuted lies. I was not surprised at all.

It is like, I was trying to like, you know, Trump like moves your baseline because he's so fucking crazy. And I was like trying to remember like, well, things have happened before. And I remember when 2004, I was an intern for the Kerry campaign, there happened to have been four hurricanes

that hit Florida in that cycle. And I went back and looked at what happened after that. And there were headlines about how there would be politics for both the Kerry campaign and the Bush campaign were very clear, like we're not playing politics with this. They both talked about how privately people were worried about what the implications would be. Bush got to go be, as the AP referred to him,

comforter in chief. John Kerry waited a few days because he was listening to local authorities. And then he went down there to talk to people and meet with people. There was a, Bill Nelson was a Democratic senator from Florida toured with him saying, because he was listening to local authorities, and then he went down there to talk to people and meet with people. There was a, Bill Nelson was a Democratic Senator from Florida toured with him saying,

"'We wanted John Kerry to come because if he becomes president, we want to understand the damage here.'" Kerry went to great lengths to say, "'This is a bipartisan moment.'" And so what you have is two politicians trying to make the most of it politically, if we're being honest, right? It's okay to be cynical about like some aspect of this, but understanding what they were supposed to do to like at least model being

somewhat apolitical. And like Trump just obliterates that instantly both by going, despite even the nonpartisan mayor of that town saying we would have liked for him to come on another fucking day, give us a few days to figure out what we can, what we have to do to dig out of this, but also then make up conspiracies, show up in a Make America Great Again hat, have a little wall of bricks built around him to make it, it's like a disaster photo app, and it's gross.

And remember, there also was an expectation back in the day that candidates would even pull down attack ads or political ads generally. I mean, there used to be so much care and thought put into these things, and now he just makes stuff up. Trump also said that no one expected a hurricane like this because it's after hurricane season. Absolutely not.

We're dead square in the middle of hurricane season. Everyone expected this to happen. It is only Trump too. I mean, we remember just in 2012, right? After Hurricane Sandy, and Barack Obama goes and gives Chris Christie a big hug, which hurt Chris Christie's career in the Trump era. But like-

Worst hug he's ever gotten. Like Governor Kemp, Republican governor, Democratic governor Roy Cooper, Joe Biden, Kamala Harris, they're all working together. They're all helping each other out. And then there's Donald Trump out there just lying. And here's the problem too, because the hurricane has disrupted power and Wi-Fi service out

in Western North Carolina. There's sort of like a lack of local news coverage. There's garbage Twitter accounts on the right and even some on the far left that are just spreading absolute lies, craziness about like Biden not helping. Meanwhile, there's like hundreds and hundreds of FEMA responders there helping out. The federal government's doing like, federal government signed an emergency declaration that like before the hurricane even hit,

just so that resources would be freed up. I mean, it's just crazy. There's some sequencing to this too. And that's why in these times of crisis, the governors and the president have to work together because the governor makes a request and then the White House has to grant it and that unlocks certain authorities.

And in this case, I think Biden could have gotten either an emergency declaration request or a major disaster declaration request, which unlocks even more federal government resources. And he did the major disaster declaration. So Biden literally is doing everything he can in real time. Yeah, it's just, it's completely made up. It's not even for Trump, these things used to be based

on like a hint of, oh, did he, was he a little slow on something, did he use something? There was just nothing, nothing, absolutely nothing. Yeah, and there is sort of like a bottom up top down thing because like there's a conspiratorial mindset that has taken hold on the right that is spread on social media. And I noticed it like as the storm was unfolding,

there were already people on social media saying, where's the federal government? They haven't responded. They're abandoning this region. And you realize like, okay, so that is the mindset that Trump has sort of, I think like, part of what led him to be successful and also what he feeds.

And then he's just ready to come right on top and to like sort of feed that worst impulse. What do you guys think of Harris's response so far and what she should do? Obviously it happens a lot in these situations that the local officials tell politicians not to come right away, but then the politicians don't wanna be accused

of looking like they don't care, so they wanna go. Yeah, I mean, I think she's doing everything she should be doing. She got briefed by the head of FEMA. She's talked to Roy Cooper. She went to FEMA today. I think in terms of the visit, I would, I think she's doing everything she should be doing. She got briefed by the head of FEMA. She's talked to Roy Cooper. She went to FEMA today. I think in terms of the visit, I would just be in constant contact with Roy Cooper's office in North Carolina and figure out the earliest possible time that doesn't impede relief operations.

And you don't have to go to downtown Asheville. You could go to a county over where FEMA is staging relief operations and go there and talk to people, hear directly from folks affected. But I think showing up is really, really important. I think the more complicated political question is gonna be, do you go with Joe Biden? Do you go separately? Navigating that is gonna be hard.

But I also think, if I were the Harris campaign, I would consider finding a bunch of really good local relief organizations and then sending an email to my list fundraising for them. And then saying to my field staff in Western North Carolina, like, all right, for the next two weeks, we're not doing campaign stuff.

You're putting on a Harris Wall shirt, and you're going doing whatever relief is happening, sandbagging, cleaning up, helping people get food, like whatever it takes. Just be in the community representing the Harris Walls campaign, but do what it takes to help those people. I think that would be pretty impactful. Yeah, I think you go, I thought about that too, Tommy.

I think she goes with Biden. Like I think she should go with Biden. It's like, he said he was gonna go Thursday, Friday. They're president, vice president. I mean like- There's two visits if you don't go with him too. Yeah, no, that's why. And like, you know, she's not afraid of being,

oh, like they've done events together since she's been the nominee. And it's like, it's not a political rally. So I think it's fine. She's like, you said your name is Joe? Right, yeah, who's this guy? It's a pronounce, it's Bden, by Dane, Bdeen. I've never heard it said.

I wonder if Trump keeps this up, or even now that he's already attacked them for it, like do you at some point take a shot at Trump for doing this? Not in a way that's like, now I'm gonna go after you, but just sort of like, look, we're trying to work with Republicans, Democrats, we're trying to focus on this,

and a disaster just hit people in red areas and blue areas, and we're trying to help everyone that we can, and we don't need Donald Trump exploiting people's suffering and trying to divide us so he can pick up a few votes. Like, people are tired of this shit kind of thing. And I don't know if maybe Walls does that tomorrow night in the debate.

I don't know if Harris does it like next week sometime. I mean, you don't want to do it right now, but like, I kind of think you've got to call out his game at some point if you want it to get traction and to like really stop it from happening, or at least stop it from affecting the election. I think that's right. I think that like, sort of stepping back,

like just, she should just be modeling responsibility. Yeah, for sure. And I know you're not saying otherwise, but like she should be modeling responsibility and what that looks like is not like, Trump is wants to seem responsible and look responsible, so he's being irresponsible. He cares what it looks like, not what it is,

and she should just do the opposite. And I think if she's asked a question about why she waited or something like that, I think it's like, I don't know if you go out of your way to do it, but you respond and say, there are people that wanna use this to exploit a tragedy for political gain. There are people that are thinking only

about how it affects themselves. I'm not going to do that. We're here, we're all Democrats, Republicans, we're all here together trying to rebuild. And like, I think she can take a shot at him that way. I think great. Just, you know, just tell him the truth. Yeah.

It gets annoying for, and I'm sure for President Biden and people in the government too, because it's like, you model responsibility, and then because no one ever pays attention to anything who's not affected by something, that like your model of responsibility just like doesn't, just goes unnoticed. Well, this is why I think sometimes too it's like, you know, it's about to be October when the final sprint for this election. So it's not the time to step back and wonder how did we get

here? But like, you know, we lay at the feet of Joe Biden, Kamala Harris, of any responsible elected figure, all the sins of the media environment and the crassness of our opponents. And it's like, no, like, yeah, sometimes now, because of how social media works, a politician doing every, like, Joe Biden responding exactly the way he should still doesn't stop a Republican leader from North Carolina

or from one of these states saying, where's Joe Biden? He didn't issue the response when he did exactly as he should have done in response to requests from the government. Or did you hear that reporter, he got a shouted question at the White House after he talked about everything

the federal government was doing. The reporter's like, why weren't you here commanding the response over the weekend? Biden was like, I was on the phone for two hours yesterday, like commanding the response. Right, so you want something to look like, you want the wall of bricks assembled by an advanced staffer.

You want the throwing of the chicken nuggets. Like you want that, that's what you think, you want something that looks like that. You want better TV. You want the performance of empathy. Are we gonna bomb the hurricane? What are we talking about? You pre-position a bunch of assets

and you make sure FEMA's on top of it. Like you need a competent team. That's what Joe Biden has put in place. People also make the comparison to Bush and Hurricane Katrina and the Air Force One photo op over New Orleans, which was obviously very bad, but also came on the heels of a 29-day vacation in Crawford, Texas.

That's part of why it was so bad. And then on top of that, the FEMA administrator was a clown who would run the Arabian Horse Federation. Remember Brownie and the state local response was terrible. And so he was blamed for like the most important thing that Joe Biden and Kamala Harris can do is make sure that people get the help they need. Yes, and that is also the most important political move too.

Yes. Like it's the right thing to do. That's right. That's what I said. Yeah, of course. But it's also very politics. We should note that if Trump had his way, the federal government would be shut down right now. Very good point. He did not succeed in his attempt to get Republicans to shut down the

government. Biden signed the continuing resolution, so it'll be funded through the election. And as a lot of Democrats have been pointing out, Project 2025 calls for breaking up and privatizing big parts of the National Weather Service, eliminating small business disaster loans, and raising the threshold for disaster declarations. Is there a policy case for Harris to make here or is that too much? I don't think you'd do it right now, but I do think as we talk about this in the next couple of weeks, I think referring to all of that, but also stepping back and saying, you know, local officials are saying

they're not only just gonna have to rebuild, they're gonna have to rebuild with an eye towards being ready for future storms that are even more severe because climate change is having such an obvious impact and reminding people of the stakes around climate and the fact that like the investments that like, the money to rebuild,

the money to invest in infrastructure, like Donald Trump promised he would do it. It was Joe Biden that delivered on these things, whether it's through the infrastructure bill or through the inflation reduction act. I feel like those are all points to me. Yeah, I mean, I think there's two points I'd make. One is that like events like this

are why you need a federal government. It is the only entity in the world that has enough resources to like surge the assets to a place like Asheville in the near term and then rebuild in the long term. And then I also think it's appropriate to talk about how project 2025 wants to take the National Oceanic Atmospheric Administration or NOAA

and the National Weather Service and fundamentally change them. They want to privatize the weather service and commercialize it. And really like the goal here is you have a bunch of anti-climate change ideologues who don't want any government data going towards making the case that climate change is real and manmade

and they want to distort it. So you're gonna end up with some natural gas lobbyists in charge of like the National Weather Service or something. I think telling people that is probably worthwhile. They don't like our satellites pointed down. They're like, oh, it's mission creep, point it up. Miami's underwater today, everyone, but wow, it just must've been a freak storm.

And great day for kayak rentals. Also, so it's funny because you have Project 2025, which is like the brainchild of these, like, extreme right-wing activists who just don't want government at all, right? Like, they don't think the federal government has a role. Then you have Donald Trump, and his view on these things is, you use the federal government to help the people

that you like and who like you. They're Republicans. And you screw over the people who don't support you. So everything is politicized. The government is support you. So everything is politicized. The government is politicized. Government power is politicized, right? And so sure enough, like Trump, who's like yelling right now about how, you know, Joe Biden is calling Governor

Kemp or whatever. After Hurricane Matthew in 2017 hit North Carolina, the Trump administration denied 99% of the aid requested by Democratic governor Roy Cooper for North Carolina. One of the last times North Carolina had a big disaster hit, Trump said, no thanks, all set. But we all like have amnesia, but like there was this sort of like sickening reality after the pandemic began where Gavin Newsom and Andrew Cuomo had to like praise the dear leader because they

wanted to make sure they were getting the resources they needed in the middle of an emergency. And they knew that the actual stakes, actual empathy for what people were going through was immaterial. Yeah, that is something, that's something to look forward to with the second Trump term. Absolutely. Disaster hits and you better hope that you're,

you live in a red, red state. Yeah. What's a no atheist in a foxhole, no libertarians in a disaster relief zone. That's, there you go. Workshop that one. No bumper sticker. No Heritage Foundation staffers. We'll keep going.

Yeah, you got it. Before we move on to other subjects, we wanted to let you know that if you wanna help folks affected by the storm and the flooding, you can go to votesaveamerica.com slash Helene. Your donation will go to some organizations that are helping on the ground right now, and they're going to keep updating those orgs as needed.

Over the weekend, while the storm was hitting the southeast, Trump was campaigning in the Midwest where he gave a speech that even he described as dark. Boy was it. Joe Biden became mentally impaired. Kamala was born that way. She was born that way. You got to do what you got to do. You got to get these people back where they came from.

You have no choice. You're going to lose your culture. You're gonna lose your country. We win and when we win, we're gonna prosecute people that cheat on this election. And if we can, we'll go back to the last one too. Oh, there's a fly. Oh, I wonder where the fly came from.

See, two years ago, I wouldn't have had a fly up here. The shelves, they literally, the people walk in, they just take everything they want, they walk out of the store. What the hell is going on? They have to be taught. Now if you had one really violent day, like one rough hour, and I mean real rough, the word will get out and it will end immediately. End immediately. So, Lovett, you said that you know what he was suggesting with the One Violent Day thing.

Did he think The Purge was a documentary? So here's what I thought, what he was in his adult brain. He's pulling back old things he used to say, but not as clearly as he was able to say before. And what I think he's talking about is things he used to say, but not as clearly as he was able to say before. And what I think he's talking about is something that you would hear like from a New Yorker like this,

would be something like, you know why there's no homeless people in front of Tiffany's? Or you know what restaurants used to do back in the day if somebody tried to steal from them? They would have somebody go out and beat the ever loving shit out of them. And then that person would tell all their friends

you didn't have to worry about it anymore. That's why there's no homeless people over here. That's what you used to have the mob, you used to have dirty cops, whatever it is. And you would dispatch these people and they would rough somebody up and they would get the word out. That is what he is talking about there.

That's sort of in his mind, he's referencing that kind of way people would talk about crime. That like, you could fix this by beating somebody up and then they'll tell all their friends. You know, the Times wrote this up and just sort of stunning to read it in a straight news story, but it said,

"'Trump has in the past urged law enforcement "'to be rougher when making arrests "'and called for the summary execution of shoplifters.'" Yeah. Like, yeah, that is what, that is true. That is what he has said before. And then the roughing up suspects thing was in a speech to police in 2017.

He also wants universal stop and frisk. He wants to deny funding for local police departments that do not implement universal stop and frisk. I think he genuinely believes that extreme government violence is a way to prevent crime. Because he also, on the international stage, he talks about Rodrigo Duterte all the time, the former president of the Philippines,

whose, quote unquote, war on drugs was basically just massacring people, innocent, guilty, didn't matter, thousands of them. And he would praise him all the time, publicly, privately, in phone calls. And this is just what he thinks is what you should do. He has proposed the death penalty for drug dealers. Like, just he wants to execute drug dealers,

which is what Duterte did. Now, do you think of any of what we just heard from Trump He has proposed the death penalty for drug dealers. Like just he wants to execute drug dealers, which is what deterred David. Now, do you think of any of what we just heard from Trump in that clip is moving any voters? Should Harris respond to any of it? What do you guys think? I don't think so. I mean, the most egregious thing in there

was Trump referring to Kamala Harris as mentally disabled, which is like disgusting and offensive, but I don't think you wanna make it about you. So I don't know. I didn't hear anything there that I would jump on. Yeah, I just like, I think you got to just put it in the bucket of like Trump's out here spewing all this nonsense and all this craziness and all this division and all this meanness

and all this cruelty. Remember why he's doing all this. He's doing this because he's distracting from the fact that he has an incredibly unpopular agenda. He wants to cut taxes for corporations. He wants to do a mass deportation that would disrupt our economy and cause a second Great Depression.

He wants to overturn abortion rights, even in blue states. Like this is what Donald Trump is promising. So don't let the noise and don't let the bullshit and don't let the crazy ramblings fool you. He's very dangerous and these are the things he's gonna do. I would like to watch a group of undecided voters

or persuadable voters who aren't sure, watching Trump talk about the one violent day, the one rough hour, the shooting shoplifters, executing. Like, I get that Republicans and Trump have an advantage on crime and we don't want to play on their territory. I just think that that kind of stuff is so extreme and has to do with what Trump wants to do in a second term and not like you said Tommy, like the names he's calling Kamala

Harris, I wouldn't talk about that or anything like that. But I don't know. I think this is, I think if you were convincing someone who was going into the voting booth that day that was like a friend of yours who was wavering, you'd be like, hey, this guy's talking about fucking executing people who were arrested for stealing drugs or people who are suspected

of shoplifting, he wants them to shoot? Like, I think that's a fair data point. I think most people would watch that and think, he doesn't really mean that. He's just kidding around, he's talking. I think, I unfortunately think- Even if you did it with the clips of, shoot the shoplifters, execute the drug dealers,

all that kind of stuff. I mean, I think shoot the shoplifters and execute the drug dealers are just different categories. I think some people might be like, yeah, maybe you think about death penalty for some drug dealers. I don't think, I think they would think he was not serious about shooting shoplifters.

And I think broadly, people have way more harsh views on crime than I'm probably personally, that we're personally comfortable with, and I don't know, I just don't know that I'd highlight it. Yeah, I just don't even, I feel so unmoored at this point. Like, we're at, we're saying shit like this, we're stuck at 48, 48, this tiny group of people.

Is this the thing that finally gets them to understand why Trump is so dangerous? I really don't feel like I know anymore. Like, are there a group of people that are leaning towards Trump that can be pilled toward Kamala not because of something that Kamala does, but because of something at long last that Trump says?

Maybe you're right, I don't know. Yeah, I was talking to some of our of something at long last that Trump says, maybe you're right. I don't know. Yeah. I was talking to some of our pollsters at focus group folks we know, and they said, especially young people and young black and brown men, like hearing about universal stop and frisk, it's like incredibly unpopular. And that's just police.

That's a terrible policy. That's literally just police stopping and frisking you, that's not shooting suspected shoplifters. So I actually, I totally agree that in general, probably the views of crime at this table versus like the public's views of crimes are quite different. But I think that this is so extreme

that it would be, I don't know if it moves people, but it's very unpopular. I think if you're talking about pulling out certain parts of this, that would be like, like in the, would appeal to like a certain segment of young people that seem open to Trump. Like sure, like that makes a lot of sense to me. But on the whole, on the main,

like I feel like we are back into a couple of cycles of Trump's crazy in a thousand different fucking directions. And I like worry about the 2016 effect of like, he's saying, oh, he's saying we didn't use to have flies as if immigrants brought all the flies. He's saying crazy shit about crime again. Wait, he's making his drug dealer point again. And like, what was that?

He called her mentally disabled. And then like, I feel like I'm in a bit of a time warp. Yeah, no, I mean, I think, like, I think that you want to be on the economy. You want to be on abortion. The only other category of Trump stuff that I sometimes think we should push a little harder on is the using government for violence.

And whether it's the mass deportations, whether it's the shooting the shoplifters, but like this stuff is just in a category of like even like libertarian leaning Republicans, like you're going to use the federal government to like, like when the looting starts, the shooting starts, right? Yeah, no, I was trying to take it just a second ago and I don't feel like I was, I'm like struggling to do it, but like I do think that there's a way to kind of, I think we like have to get,

I think that that kind of gets sorted into like the Trump chaos extremism bucket. And then there's like the Trump economy bucket. And I do think there's like a way to put them together and that we're not being clear enough with people about, like I talked about this with Tim actually, cause we were talking about Trump's economic speech, which was kind of glossed over

because of all the crazy shit he said, but inside of it was an actual economic speech. And you look at what he's promising and like it could cause a depression, it could cause a massive massive massive recession. And like we should like that's in the reverse, that's what Donald Trump would be saying. Why aren't we saying that like Donald Trump's chaos,

Donald Trump is going to, when he left office, he left the country with a recession. He is promising through tariffs and mass deportations, not only terror for millions of people, but an economic calamity. If you want to prevent a massive economic crash caused by Donald Trump's chaos, mismanagement, and extremism, like to protect the economy,

you have to vote for Kamala Harris. And there's some way to kind of put those things together. Yeah. The tariff thing is to, I've been an advocate for going hard at the tariffs for Kamala Harris. And there's some way to kind of put those things together. Yeah. The tariff thing is to, I've been an advocate for going hard at the tariffs for a while now. It is hard for people who like lived through a first Trump term, I think to imagine like,

well, why didn't he do this crazy tariff thing in the first term? And what's his motivation for doing in the second term? You're gonna be like, I don't know. He's kind of fucking crazy. Yeah. That's like the only explanation. It is wild.

And he also totally misrepresents what a tariff is. Although there's some recent Pew polling on immigration that found 56% of registered voters support mass deportations, including 27% of Harris supporters. So it just shows you how far people have moved on immigration and why Trump is only talking about it. The other thing that's interesting from Pew on crime

is they test people's feelings on crime and whether crime rates are going up or down. In 23 of the last 27 polls, I think that's right, people thought that crime was going up even when it was going down. So there's clearly just so much fear of crime, mostly from the media, that it distorts views. And I'm just not sure how it cuts. Well, I definitely think you can't try to tell people, much like the economy, you can't

tell people that crime is going down if they don't feel that crime is going down. I think that's a mistake. So it seems like some of this crap from Trump was a reaction to Harris going to the border on Friday, which Dan and I previewed a bit on Friday's show. How do you guys think she did that event? That the coverage looked good. I mean, I have any opportunity to drive the message that there was this border security bill, a bipartisan group

of lawmakers wanted to pass it, and Trump tanked it because he wanted to ruin the issue. I think that's just a great message. I also thought it let her highlight her work in California going after drug cartels and drug traffickers, which I bet you 0% of voters know about if you were just to sort of ask them in sort of an open setting.

She has gained back some ground on immigration as compared to where Biden was, but she's still losing pretty badly on the issue. And that similar, that same pupil last month found that 56% of registered voters are extremely or very concerned about the number of immigrants entering the country illegally, including 27 percent of her supporters. So same numbers as mass deportation. And so, you know, I think what I take from all of this is that her

campaign has decided that she needs to look like she thinks the border is a crisis and the immediate priority. And we're going to solve that first, and then you move to like a broader, more holistic conversation about immigration policy. And this visit was a piece of it. I think the one criticism you can make is like, maybe do this six months ago, a year ago, you do it a couple times, so it doesn't get called just a stunt,

as the Chiron on Fox News said as we were walking in, but it's worth doing. I just remembered, I can't remember if it was a Sarah Longwell focus group or one of those cable focus groups after the debate or something, but there was an undecided voter or some swing voter who was like, and you know, I heard that she, when she was in California, she prosecuted some of these

gangs, these, and I was like, someone knows about this? Thank God. Get that woman on TV. That is great. That's a mission accomplished there. That's one. Yeah, I watched, I went just, I was like, someone knows about this? Thank God. Get that woman on TV. That is great. That's a mission accomplished there. That's one. Yeah, I watched, I went just, I was like, what does this look like if you're in Phoenix or something?

And like, what does the border coverage look like? And the images are great. It's her walking with like police in front of the wall. It's very kind of like law enforcement, kind of border security. I think the like, the remarks were great. All that was great. But you just sort of see the challenge

of trying to like make a dent. Like we'll get to the polling, which is like how challenging this media environment is, because if you watch a local affiliate, it's images of her at the border, then they go to a Trump surrogate, who's basically saying like, she was the border czar who failed,

she hasn't been here since she was elected, which is a false. And then they say, all right, well, let's cut to Kamala Harris's remarks on the border. It happened to be the part of the speech where she was doing acknowledgements. So they cut from a Trump aide going like, she's never done a thing for the border.

And then it's her just applauding and like pointing at people. And you're just like, man, it just got, to Tommy's point about like doing this, where it's like, it's reps, it's going again. It's like doing then, going and doing interviews with these affiliates to talk about it more. It's just, you have to hit it over and over and going again. It's like doing then going and doing interviews with these affiliates to talk about it more It's just you have to hit it over and over and over again

also if you are making a speech about a policy that your Supporters and your voters are excited about they're going to spread the message and they're gonna help you spread that message Which is tough to do in this media environment if you are going to play defense on border security Which is what she's doing and look there's a lot of undecided swing voters are saying like, I'm not sure about her on the border, right, I'm not sure about her on immigration. And it's along with the economy, those are the two things holding a lot of these voters back.

But it's just like, you're not gonna get a bunch of your supporters to go and be like, look at her on the border, it was so exciting. She was really tough on border security. Like, it's just a hard thing to get out there. Right. It's like you're, you're trying to like, you're trying to beat him on temperament extremism.

You're trying to beat him on abortion and try to fight to a draw on the economy. And you're trying to like mitigate your losses on immigration. Like to Tommy's point about why mass deportation polls so well, there's no conversation about whether or not there should be a mass deportation.

It's people saying, well, yeah, I do agree that there's a huge problem at the border. Or the impact of it. Or the impact about it. And so- Yeah, you show people videos of federal agents raiding offices and homes. I think they're not as excited about it. Right, but then what happens is,

Donald Trump's out there saying, this is what we need, this is how we'll solve the problem correctly. The Harris campaign is saying, let's talk about border security, let's talk about Trump killing the bill, let's talk about border security, let's talk about Trump killing the bill, let's talk about a better immigration system, and then there's no actual debate

about this heinous and terrible policy. As you said, love it. We keep getting more polls. They keep showing that the race is more tied than the last polls. That's possible. New York Times, Sienna, once again, Saturday morning, we all get up

and more New York Times, Sienna polls., Saturday morning, we all get up in the more New York Times Sienna polls. Harris leads 49-47 in Wisconsin, 48-47 in Michigan. There was a Fox News poll out on Friday that had Harris up two in Pennsylvania, but tied among likely voters, blah, blah, blah. It's all the same. Are we just stuck here till election day? Is this what's gonna happen?

Yeah. Feels like it. In my dark moments, I wonder if we spend years of our lives in billions of dollars on campaigns. And in the end, what really matters is like the meta media narrative at the last week or two. The last week, yeah. You know, and like the late deciders and where they break.

It's made me worry, Tommy, to that point that like the Trump people know this because that's how they won in 16. And they're just like waiting to just throw some kind of shit at the wall in the last two weeks. Come on, Jim Comey. What are you up to? They'll make, they don't people know this? Cause that's how they won in 16. And they're just like, waiting to just throw some kind of shit at the wall in the last two weeks. Come on, Jim Comey. What are you up to?

They don't have to, they don't have to have a kernel of truth though. They're just gonna like throw shit at the wall. Yeah, I will say like, even if what you're saying is true, let's say that the campaigns create the space for that, that like final two weeks to unfold. I also like, I just, I think we don't know that.

Like I think it don't know that. I think it's very possible that the race is frozen and the very, no campaign is perfect, but Kamala Harris is doing what she is supposed to do. She has very smart people around her. They are running an enthusiastic campaign. They're doing everything they're supposed to do. Trump is selling fucking watches

and careening through disaster sites. And yet they're tied. And they're tied. Anding and they're tied. And then the question is like, is that a genuine, like I think there's the race could be genuinely tied and this politics is all going through like the information mandolin and like ending up as shredded on the bottom.

That's possible. It's also possible that these polls are accurate but it's just very hard to measure the like shifts between leaners, shifts in enthusiasm, tiny shifts amongst undecided voters that even if the polls are creating an accurate picture of what's happening, they're not able to measure these subtle and qualitative differences,

which you do see in focus groups, right? There is a difference in the focus groups between how they talked about Biden versus Trump versus how they talk about Harris versus Trump. And that would just be hard to measure. The other is that like all of this polling, like we may discover after this election that the ways in which they were trying to correct for errors after 2016 and 2020 created totally weird results

because those were weird elections between Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump, between Joe Biden and Donald Trump during a pandemic. And now this election where we finally have a candidate, a lot of people are enthusiastic about. Finally a normal election. Well, it's like, so between a vice president. The answer is who knows.

The answer is who knows, but we just won't know till after. I know, I'm saying, and that was a joke, in my dark moments, I think that. I obviously registering voters matters, G-O-T-V matters, but ultimately, we're talking about 10% of the population that's undecided and trying to convince them and it's just, it sucks.

And again, I think people, you hear undecided and you think that those people are all torn between the two candidates and they're just checked out a lot of them are checked out and You know, I just Alex Wagner did a focus group of Michigan voters Last week and just hearing some of them you could it's so funny because you can tell the difference between The voters who've been paying attention to this race and they talk about the convention speech or Trump did this and then the other ones And just hearing some of them, it's so funny because you can tell the difference between the voters who've been paying attention to this race and they talk about the convention speech or Trump did this.

And then the other ones are just like, I haven't looked enough about Kamala Harris. I know she's a new candidate. I gotta check it out. I do remember I had more money in my pocket when Trump was president, but I don't know. He seems kind of crazy. I mean, you just hear the same shit

and they are gonna tune in those last couple of weeks. I don't like those Michigan numbers. Or people are gonna knock on their doors and or the campaign's gonna be on the ground. You're gonna have an organizer, they're gonna hear from a volunteer. And again, one conversation is not gonna do it, but if they're gonna start thinking,

okay, I got some new information from that person, that's interesting. I do think that because the race has been so static and because it's so close, it's hard to know the difference between are there just a group of people that are very hard to persuade or are they being persuaded and it's just not showing up in the numbers? And we just don't know, it's very hard to know the difference between are there just a group of people that are very hard to persuade or are they being persuaded

and it's just not showing up in the numbers? And we just don't know. It's very hard to measure. It's getting a little hot war in Lebanon. Close this thing out. Close strong. Some more chaos and death and destruction overseas. Maybe shovel some cash over there.

Can't you fix that? That's supposed to be your other podcast. Rhodes is working on it. Rhodes is working on it. He's doing his thing. God, I'm not doing my job. I know the joke, and I was gonna do it too. We didn't.

There is one more quote unquote big moment left on the calendar. Tuesday night's VP debate, JD Vance and Tim Walz will meet on stage at CBS Studios in New York at 9 p.m. Eastern. Like the Harris-Trump debate, it'll be 90 minutes with no audience. Unlike the Harris-Trump debate, both candidates' mics will be on the entire

time. The moderators are Nora O'Donnell and Margaret Brennan. We know that Pete Buttigieg has been playing Vance in Walls' debate prep sessions, and that Minnesota Congressman Tom Emmer has been playing Walls in Vance's sessions. The Walls team has been trying to set expectations with leaks about Walls being nervous and not a great debater The RNC did a preview call about the debate and teased that Vance will call walls trader Tim for allegedly Abandoning his National Guard unit when they went to Iraq So are they is it gonna be trader tampon Tim or tampon trader Tim just drop tampon? Oh good question

Yeah, trader. That's so great. I should look great. That's good. They should do that. What a prick. How are you guys feeling about the expectation setting? Do you buy the expectation setting? Do you not? What do you think?

I'm a little nervous. I watched some of Tim Walz's Minnesota public radio debate from last year against Scott Jensen. Barnburner? I heard of Scott Jensen. It wasn't great. He seemed pretty nervous. He was a little gruff, got a little defensive.

The answers weren't always totally smooth or coherent. And so, you know, he's probably doing exponentially more prep this time than the last time, but you know, the stakes are a lot higher and Tim Walls hasn't been doing any interviews. Like the lack of reps could make him rusty. He's also, he's now defending Kamala Harris's record, something he learned about for the first time two months ago.

Think about how complicated that is. You're not like defending your own legislative record or time as governor, which you know inside and out, you're talking about this person you barely knew three months ago, as opposed to JD Vance, who's been doing fucking mop-up duty for Donald Trump for four years publicly while attacking him privately. And so, JD, again, he's been out there,

he's doing press conferences, he's doing hostile interviews. They're not always good, he's not always helping the cause, but he's got a lot of reps and he's an obnoxious, like slippery little shit who is kind of good at this stuff. Yeah, I think a Socratic form is a good form for JD Vance. JD Vance is better in one-on-one interviews that are contentious with like a national news reporter than he is on the stump or talking to someone

trying to sell him a donut. He's better in the green room. He's better in like well-lit environments. He's a green room creature and I do worry about that. What I was thinking about this debate was actually the John Edwards, I don't know why it's 2004 for me right now. I don't know what came out of the fucking time capsule.

Do you support the surge? Yeah, so the reason I was thinking about- Let me tell you about the last time I remember a disaster relief situation in politics, 2004. I do, well, so this is a coincidence, but the reason I was thinking about 2004 is because Dick Cheney had become, had this reputation of being- Your political hero. Yeah, sure. Became this reputation of being-

Your political hero. Yeah, sure. Became this sort of like, this political Darth Vader and John Edwards was this charming lawyer. And then they had this debate where they kind of folksy'd it up and had a really kind of mild mannered good time. And I think it redounded to Dick Cheney's benefit

because John Edwards made Dick Cheney seem like a normal person in that debate. Yeah, and the only thing I remember from it is him kind of really awkwardly being like, your daughter who was a lesbian. Yeah, that was a weird moment. Was just like, what are you doing, John? But like John, but Dick Cheney came out well

out of that debate. And I was a little worried about that. Like, Tim Walz is gonna kind of like end up in this sort of folksy conversation with JD Vance and JD Vance comes away looking vaguely normal because he's in conversation with a normal guy. That was my concern. But the fact that they're previewing this trader thing,

I think that's fucking great. Like the more JD Vance is coming after Tim Walls and Tim Walls can just be like, I'm proud of my service to my country. Let's talk about Donald Trump. Let's talk about Kamala Harris. I think the better. And I think that would be a pretty stupid strategy.

Real waste of time. JD Vance, which makes me think it's a head fake, but who knows? Who knows? I do, I buy the spin from the Walls camp. Someone in the CNN piece about this recalls Walls saying, I think at a fundraiser, is teachers were trained to answer the question and we train our students to answer the questions.

That's not how this goes. Barack Obama, also a teacher, felt the same way. He was not always great at debates. Kamala Harris was a prosecutor. That's like, debates are more her style, like the way that you prepare for trial, you know? So I do, I worry a little bit, you know, about walls, but I don't know, maybe he's practiced a bunch

and maybe Pete really gave it to him good and now he's all ready. And then had the debate prep. Okay, Jesus Christ. Jesus Christ. You Tom thought it. There's no one like Tom who thought it. I can see that Tom who thought it.

I don't have the permission structure to say anything. Um, I also was texting with some people on the Walls team and be like, are you ready to dominate? And they're like, you know, not quite how we're feeling, but we're making progress. So they're, they're, they're playing things down publicly and privately. That's, and then there's a piece,

did you guys read the piece in the New York Times about JD Vance and his past debates? That was like an expectations. Razor. Yeah, it's like the walls campaign placed it, but it was like basically all about how great, how JD Vance was like made for debates, just like what you said, you know?

And apparently in Hillbilly Elegy, he talked about how he, in the Marines, he did media relations for the Marines. Yeah, he's a combat correspondent. The experience taught me a valuable lesson that I could do it. I could work 20 hour days when I had to, I could speak clearly and confidently with TV

cameras shoved in my face. So this is a guy who's been like practicing doing this for a long time. And you're right. Like I think interacting with humans sort of tough, but like a debate stage. White nationalist podcasts, great preparation for a debate.

And I think the smarter strategy for JD Vance than the traitor Tim's stuff would be to run the play that Donald Trump was supposed to run at the Harris Trump debate and forget about Tim Walz and make Tim Walz answer for like Kamala Harris and all of the unpopular parts of the Biden Harris record and her stuff. Definitely.

That's what I bet he'll do. Yeah, what's confusing though about JD Vance is like he seems smart enough to know that and then he goes on social media and like starts bickering with reporters all day. So there's an angel on devil on his shoulder and they're both assholes. Yeah.

Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Fucking worst angel you'd ever fucking meet. He's also such a weirdo. You could see him getting triggered by Nora and Margaret too, because he's like these, they're just like shouting questions at him.

And he just, he already has an antagonistic relationship with every reporter. And so I could see him. Yeah, I got real mad at Dana Bash. Yep, I could see that too. If you were Walls, would you go after him for the shitty things he said, or would you keep it all about Trump?

I was thinking about this over the weekend. And I think the one place I would kind of go after JD Vance repeatedly is be like, JD, I was a teacher for many years. I had a lot of students like you, like kids who were in a hurry to make a name for themselves and be someone, and they were willing to say and do anything to get there.

Like, that's how you end up being the attack dog for a guy who doesn't care about working people, who in 2020, you said had failed to deliver as president in a DM. And now you're running around the country telling lies and trying to divide the country. And then you try to like create this narrative around JD that becomes a motive for everything he says and kind of undercuts him and sort of gets at his lack of qualifications for the jobs. Maybe you slip in a couple of lines about how old Trump is.

But yeah, no, I don't think you're going after the greatest oppo hits. Like maybe you're mentioning some of the top ones like childless cat ladies or lying about migrants in Ohio. But yeah, I mean, most of this is gonna be just the Trump show and making him defend Trump. Couldn't agree more though. That's a great strategy to have like one motivation

for JD Vance and his career and to just like keep coming back to that, right? Which is just trying to do anything to get more power. Yeah, I do think using the new stuff about the 2020, like even after Donald Trump's presidency we're saying these things, which is new and he'll feel obligated to respond. And his response is pretty bad.

I don't know if we've, do we cover this on this show? I think just to so everyone knows what we're talking about. There was a Washington Post story about this, that JD Vance was direct messaging on Twitter with someone where he said in 2020 that Trump quote, thoroughly failed to deliver on economic populism. Yep. And so I, pretty damning.

One of the more damning JD Vance quotes. Even more damning, that line was followed by parenthetical, accepting a disjointed China policy. Who says accepting? JD Vance. JD Vance. Go back to Yale. Yeah, I do think that's pretty damning. And his defense is like, I was saying how

establishment Republicans let him down, which is sort of embarrassing. Okay, buddy. But he'll feel obligated because he'll know Trump is sort of embarrassing. Okay, buddy. But he'll feel obligated because he'll know Trump is watching. Oh, God, yeah. And so he'll have to respond. The only, if I was Walls, I would look for,

I mean, that's one opportunity, but other opportunities to drive a wedge between Trump and Vance with either different positions they've had. Or remember when Vance fucked up by saying that Donald Trump would veto a national abortion ban. And Trump said, Oh, I never told them that. Right.

Like I would, I would look for him on that. That's for sure. And know that Trump's watching and try to get, make him be a supplicant for Trump and it just embarrassed himself. Like, I think that's a real audience of one situation for, uh, for JD. Uh, what's a win for walls look like?

It's like a relentless message about Trump being in this for himself and not working people and then just getting JD on defense. Yeah. I think a draw is a win. Do no harm. And yeah, and just saying how great Kamala is and her record and her, you know, her plans and everything like that. I mean, because again, she, I would say the only missed opportunity, not really missed

cause she didn't have the time, but in the last debate she didn't get to talk as much about her plans, her policies, her values, stuff like that. She did, but I think that Walls could probably do that for her even better because he's essentially a surrogate for her and not just her bragging. Yeah, she went back to like aspirations and ambitions but she didn't go back to the details that much.

Yeah, I think a win will be a debate in which it felt like Tim Walz was kind of putting JD, it's very similar, it's sort of a mirror image of Trump, like JD Vance is gonna be a smarter, more sophisticated kind of bulldozer coming at him, but like kind of being able to put that aside and letting him get himself riled up while talking to the camera,

and like kind of he comes away kind of seeming kind of nonplussed. Is that the right way of using nonplussed? Yeah, sure. Hmm. And Vance seems rattled, seems angry. How much is this gonna matter? You think the whole race is gonna be upended

if Wallace does bad or does well? I wonder what's the worst VP debate performance? It's a good question. I mean, Sarah Palin even did fine, right? Yeah. They're usually non-events. Like. No one cares.

It is weird that it could be the last big event before voting, but no one will remember it by the time they're actually on election day. No. You know, it could cost a few new cycles to one side or the other, but maybe a, maybe a, I don't even know who to be appalling. If the debate between Harris and Trump didn't say something moving. That's what I'm saying. I know. I know. Right. Like, I don't even know. If the debate between Harris and Trump didn't

seem to move anything. That's what I'm saying. I know, I know, right. Like, I don't know. Yeah, well, we'll be watching. This is gonna be the thing? This will be the, yeah, no, I don't know. When we come back from the break, you're gonna hear my conversation

with the one and only James Carville. Two quick things before we do that. For tonight's VP Debate, we're gonna be hosting a subscriber live chat starting at 9 p.m. Eastern, 6 p.m. Pacific on our discord server you'll be able to watch the debate live chat with fellow crooked listeners invent about JD Vance's awfulness in real time not a friend of the pod yet sign up now at crooked.com slash friends we'll be doing our own recap show after the debate ends but

also make sure you're subscribed to our daily news pod what a day you'll wake up with a 20-minute overview of the highs and lows of the Walls Vance Showdown. Best of all, Tommy's gonna be joining Jane Costin for the episode. Oh yeah, can't wait. Nice. It's very fun. It's a tradition like any other.

Me going on WADA after debates. There you go. When we come back, James Carville. Joining us in studio today, he's the subject of a new CNN documentary coming out this weekend called Carville, Winning is Everything Stupid, the legendary Democratic strategist who inspired a generation of hacks like me to get into politics. James Carville, James, welcome to the pod. Well, thank you. I'm excited to be here.

It's always good to have a conversation and have a hack. That's right, that's right. So since Kamala Harris became the nominee, we've had a convention, a debate, millions in ads, saturated media coverage, and basically nonstop polling that shows a race that is essentially tied with five weeks to go. I know the last few elections have been pretty close,

so this is unusual. I can't remember a race where the polling has been this tight for this long. What do you think is going on? Well, first of all, in this century, the only candidate that went, woke up election morning knowing they were gonna win was the Obama 2008.

We were still a little nervous, but. But you kind of knew. It was a good lead, yeah. Everything else, you might have thought you were a little better shape, but you didn't know. Right. You certainly didn't know in 2002. I mean, Romney was actually shocked that he lost.

I mean, it was like he went there thinking he was gonna win. So it's not unusual. And what I will say, they usually break an end. So if there's seven swing states, the most unlikely result is they break four-three. They're gonna break. Altogether.

More likely than not. My instinct, but it's nothing, but instinct is, you know, Kentucky windage, that it'll break Harris's way. But that's only instinct. There's no evidence to support that. Were you surprised at how fast the party came together around her candidacy and how fast her favorability ratings went up? No.

No? I think it was clear that people just wanted something different. It was like, what, 72% wanted something different. 60% of the Democrats did. And you know what I would say, the analogy I would use is that you have an infected wisdom tooth and they pull it, you feel great. You don't feel any better than you'd have felt if you didn't have the wisdom tooth. The fact that the wisdom tooth is gone, you're like, gee, I'm on top of the world now.

And I think you had some of that effect, like in the way that, it was 1245 central time almost to the minute when I got the first text in by I was listening to you know political radio I forgot what it was then you get an hour at 145 central you knew that it already called us that there was no no appetite for anything else. Yeah. Were you worried at all that, because I know you were initially concerned that it would appear either she was anointed by the party or even another Democratic nominee would,

and look, she did earn the nomination, but there was no other challengers, about 24 hours. Yeah. You know, Simon, if President Biden would have dropped out June the 15th, there might have been a lot of, well, one of the things that I do believe that the level of talent in the current Democratic Party is the highest level of talent

I've seen a political party in my lifetime. I mean, if you look at the potential presidential candidates we had, they're all like really world-class talent. Yeah. And Harris has kind of proved herself to be a lot better than people thought. The other thing that I would have people tell me that you know she's gotten a lot better. I'd like people working at the White House. She's become more confident. She has better staff work.

I think they brought Lorraine in. So I'm gratified. I didn't, you know, everybody saw her at 2000 presidential campaign. Ooh, man, I think it stunk. But she's grown. She has, she really has. It feels like Trump and Kamala are in a battle

for voters' attention, which is increasingly harder to come by these days, the state of the media. I think it's one big reason that the Harris folks really want a second debate. So far, Trump's not giving it to them. What do you think her campaign can do to break through in these last few weeks? Any creative ideas to grab people's attention?

The answer is yes. Okay, First of all, what they do is they do big events very well. The vice president will roll out, you could say maybe they could sit a picture, I don't know, but maybe it was very well done. The convention, you couldn't walk away from there and not say it's one of the better conventions you've ever had. You certainly couldn't walk away from the debate and not say that they did a real good job in preparing her. I knew some of the people that were in prep, but I really was very confident she was gonna do well. What is less certain is how aggressive they are day to day

and how they don't take a story and kick it. So Trump says, I don't like to pay people a minimum wage, I just don't pay them. Then, I mean, overtime, not really, overtime. And Project 2025 has this overtime provision. I wish they would be kicking the crap out of this all day. I wish they were like flooding TV, like come on, people work overtime,

they want to get paid, you know, hourly workers, overtime is everything to them. So I thought that they could kick that a lot harder, and what I hope that they do coming down the stretch is push a story every day. And a lot of it is just the stuff they're proposing on taxes. People don't like. The other one they should be just kicking the crap out of is the tariff stuff.

You see we down four in Iowa. That's understandable. Agrarian people can't stand tariffs. They have a terrible... Industrial people, some are naive enough to think they're going to do some good. I think they should be pushing, the Peterson Institute, which okay, I don't know what it is, we know, but it's all credible people say this is going to be a $2,500, $3,000 owned

every family. I wish they would push that harder. Yeah. It seems like, I mean, this has been a problem for years now, but Trump gives you so many different targets every day, because he's a bunch of crazy shit all the time. She has the added challenge of voters saying, well, I want to know more about her,

I want to know what she's gonna do as president. But then you've got Trump up there saying, he's talking about the tariffs, he's talking about mass deportations, political prosecutions, he just talked about going after shoplifting by letting police do whatever they want for one rough hour. How do you think she should balance

talking about herself and talking about him? How do you handle that? So I think that if she ran hard, if they pushed the tariffs stuff, people would find out something about her. I think if they pushed the tariff stuff, people would find out something about her. I think if they pushed the overtime stuff, if they pushed something simple that everybody is far, but they just don't do, the minimum wage.

It's time to give America a raise. Everybody else in the world who's gotten a raise, but America's not got a raise. And I read a New York Times story. It's so predictable She did the interview with I guess Stephanie rule. Hmm. And of course is the same pissy thing Well, she really didn't say anything. There was a lack of specificity in hidden in the story Was the fact that she'd put out an 81 page economic plan. Yeah, like why didn't

out an 81 page economic plan. Yeah. Like, why didn't, so we had a, in 92, we had an 85 page economic plan. No one ever read a word of it, including me. But there is actually, well, she lacks specifics. She's not talking about the issues in any depth. It's just, just, bromides and, well, actually, she does have an 81 page economic plan there's no danger that I'm gonna read it but I think if people knew that yeah you have to said check out 81 page economic plan on page 32 she says if we need to

increase the minimum wage to 12.85 an hour Pretty good. All we need to take taxes over, raise tax on people, make over $400,000 and put it in a first time home buyer mortgage relief fund to help young people buy houses. Yeah. Anything like that, you know is gonna be massively popular. It pointed out, but the New York Times

is never gonna say that she has economic specificity. Right. That you could just, you always say that no matter what. Yeah, and when she does interviews too, she can answer questions by saying, oh, if you wanna know more, I have this whole book out there. And by the way, here's what Trump wants to do.

Yeah. Yeah, so there are, I do think they can be more aggressive. I think they can fight for the new cycle. And I think that, you know, you don't get the back, where one day you get a bunch of good stories and you're polled that night and you say, well, shit, we didn't move.

You gotta keep building stuff up. So polling shows a big gender gap, including and especially between young women and young men, white men, Hispanic men, even black men. Um, it's been like the big demographic debate of 2024. Do you think this is a dynamic that is specific to Trump and the current version of the Democratic Party, or is it bigger than that? How do you think about it?

Well, I've been pretty outspoken. We don't do as well, near as well with males as I think we can do. And John, you know that every election brings about a fashionable demographic. NASCAR dads, soccer moms, women of color. Nascar dads, soccer moms, women of color. I think the demographic in this cycle with the most elasticity, that'll get in trouble saying this in some quarters, but are college-educated white males. I think we have a lot of ups... Why do I say that?

First of all, they tend to be more pro-choice than non-college white males. You know, I'm sorry, but we have mothers, wives, children, friends, but it, so much of this has become that it's, abortion is a women's issue. It's actually somewhat of a male issue too. And the other reason I think that there's upside is, you know, because of obvious reasons,

they're more invested in the stock market. They have more to lose. So I do think we have some, we can't do any better than we're doing in post-bachelor white women. Right. But we certainly can do better with younger black males. That's a problem that I think, to a large extent, our cultures help create that.

But I think the trendy demographic are college white males. And what do you think is the best way to lock down college white males or sort of? Keep talking about abortion, keep talking about freedom, and say that Trump says, the argument is, is it a good economy or a bad economy? It's very hard to talk people into something that they don't believe. But Trump gave us a tremendous opening. He says, you have nothing to lose. We're gonna try everything because it's all in a toy.

I don't think people look at it that way. I think people say, well, yeah, I got a job. I think most people, if you say, yeah, I feel pretty good about the next year, a year and a half. Yeah. Some people may have a savings account, and maybe they're doing a little better. If the question is, is it good or bad, that's not the question we should be asking.

Do you have something to lose in this? Can you do better? Yes. But if we do things like start slapping tariffs on everything, we're not going to do very well. You have something to lose. He keeps running these ads. What the hell you got to lose?

Actually, a fair amount. It's not just people like you and I that have something to lose, a pipe that has something to lose. I mean, that guy, Joshi, has gone down to the Union Hall and got work every day. I know you've taken your share of shit for warning Democrats about identity politics and woke language and all that. I've always wondered about this from the perspective

of democratic politicians, like 99% of whom don't actually talk like that. I've always wondered about this from the perspective of Democratic politicians, like 99% of whom don't actually talk like that. They get tagged as, you know, woke party because of activists and people on social media that they have very little control over. If you're a Democratic politician or working for one, what do you do about this issue? Well, first of all, no one uses that language. I mean, it just don't, okay? And it started and it was like an idea that never caught on. So there's no chance that, you know, I tell people, and this is true, I, you saw the film, I probably had more encounters with black people than any democratic consultant,

just where I grew up and where I live. And if I saw, which I see all the time, it's just to say there's three black guys shooting the ball out in front of the supermarket. If I walked up and I said, good morning, fellas, how are things in the community of color today? They said, what's this giant ass motherfucker talking about? Okay. They wouldn't know what I was saying. And I think it was well-intentioned people that just made a giant mistake and they tried

to lead and no one followed them. And the best thing we can do is just move on. And we don't need to go remind NPR that no one talks like that. Everybody knows no one talks like that anymore. There's no danger that Adam Schiff is going to be running for Senate in California and start talking about Latinx or something. It's not going to happen. There's no value in that.

I love the documentary., focuses on your life, your career, your marriage. A good chunk of it is also about your very vocal push to get Biden to step aside, which was a bit of a lonely crusade before the debate. I know that you probably weren't too concerned with the criticism you received during that period. There is a moment in the doc where you worry aloud

about becoming one of those people you used to hate, the goddamn carping democratic pundits criticism you received during that period. There is a moment in the doc where you worry aloud about becoming one of those people you used to hate, the goddamn carping democratic pundits who were never satisfied. How do you think about giving advice that's still pertinent and persuasive, even though you're not working inside these campaigns like you used to?

So you and I worked in campaigns, and you would see people on television Some bitch has no idea what he's talking about. We sit there 16 hours a day trying to you know crank out a schedule trying to get spots written and talking points pushed and you know doing local TV hits and In this assholes pop it off local TV hits and this asshole's popping off. And I always, so here he says, well yeah, that guy is sitting there and knocking down $35,000 of speech

and sitting on TV. And I've always hated that kind of person. And that's so true that I had become that which I had always detested. But I just didn't, because I was old, if you see the documentary, it's pretty clear that I'm in the midst of the aging process. I had, like you, I had maybe a better view, but if we have an idea of what the job entails, it's not easy. No.

And I had a platform. I'd thought it out. I'd talked to a lot of people about it. I thought about it myself. I just didn't think I had any other choice. Just given the unique circumstances, you know, maybe if you got, if somebody got really vocal, they would cut guests off from you, if you were lobbying, or you've had other campaigns you were working on, or even if you were working on foreign campaigns, they'd call the government of Nigeria and say, you know, if you don't get rid of this son of

a bitch, you're not getting something. I mean, but there was no pressure point that could be applied to me. And I just thought I was in a unique situation. I'll blame other people. And I would have people would say, God, I wish I could say that, in a unique situation. I'll blame other people. And I would have people would say, God, I wish I could say that, but I can't. I said, I understand. It's not, I'm not.

Yeah. I couldn't have said this 15 years ago. Right. All right. But you can do it now. But I can do it now. I'm sure you get asked a lot by young people for advice, especially people who are interested in pursuing

a career in politics. I know one of the reasons you really wanted to do this doc or what you hoped from this doc was to get young people involved in politics again. What do you say to people who ask? Well, the origins of the doc was Susan McHugh, who was kind of a friend, I think it was post-pandemic. And she said, you know, I was a student at Rutgers and I saw the war room and she became Harry Reid's sheep of Sanford 30 years old. And Susan's just one of these like, uber connected people. And she said, I wanna make another documentary.

And that was really the kind of origin of what started it. And whatever you call this, the profession, the business, the industry, it's taken a lot of hits. So a young person says, everybody says it's dirty, it's all negative, it's all polarized, everybody's in it for themselves. And guess what? That message actually broke through. are polarized, everybody's in it for themselves. And guess what?

That message actually broke through. They were actually successful in convincing people that this was a shitty business that shitty people were in. Yeah. And that's just not people like you and I that work in campaigns. It's people who every election, Ms. Mabel, who sits there at the card table

and checks off the list, that's the person that walks the precinct, that goes into the projects to flush it and goes to get the votes out. It's also the local newscaster that covers politics. It's the people that write about politics. In the entire business, to the extent that this movie lives beyond the cycle, which I hope it does, I hope it gives people like, you know what? Those people look like they were having a pretty good time. It didn't look like they went

to work with a half-shirt on. They were particularly embarrassed by the way they earned a living. Yeah. And I think, Matt, the advantage we had was our director actually like worked, was a gopher in the Mondale campaign with Susan Estrich as kind of assistant in the 88 Dukakis campaign and covered politics and ran to fair. So he actually had some idea because most people think kind of carnival barkers, you know, itinerant people, and I hope, you know,

some young John Favreau says, you know, some young Susan McHugh says, well, shit, maybe I don't wanna be Chief of Staff to a certain, to when I'm 30 years old and be some Irish woman from, what's that, what, Dorotkos? That's fine. I mean, I was a kid when I first saw the war room and to this day I can still remember your line

that at the end outside of a person's love, the most sacred thing they can give us their labor. And anytime you can combine labor and love, you've made a merger because that was the moment, that was the first moment I thought about getting into politics, so thank you for that. Well, thank you for that. Actually, you know, that's what I hope

we're able to do with this movie. Yeah. I mean, that's my hope is that, you know, 30 years from now somebody says, you know, I got out of UCLA and I got an offer, but I thought I'd maybe run for the sewage and water commission. Who would have a thought that one day I would be the governor of California? The doc is fantastic it's called Carville winning is everything

stupid directed by Matt Turnhour premieres on CNN on Saturday October 5th and in theaters in New York LA and other spots across the country. James Carville, thanks for coming on Pod Save America. Thank you, and thank you for your kind words about your war room inspiring you. I hope this inspires somebody else. Thank you so much. Me too. Thank you. That's our show for today.

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