Rates & Barrels - A Bad Injury Weekend, Making Up Ground in the Second Half & the Return of Victor Robles

Episode Date: July 22, 2024

DVR is joined by Jeff Erickson, RotoWire Senior Editor, to discuss the fallout from an injury-filled weekend that included IL stints for Ozzie Albies, Max Fried, and Bo Bichette (among others). Plus, they discuss how to make up ground in the standings in the second half of the season, before looking at a few popular pickups and drops from the weekly leagues.  Rundown 2:06 Expectations for Nacho Alvarez Jr. 11:36 Bo Bichette's Setback with a Calf Strain 17:51 Updates From Around the League: Julio Rodríguez & Carlos Correa 28:22 Mike Trout, J.T. Realmuto, Tyler Glasnow & Clayton Kershaw Have We Underrated Kershaw's Recent Seasons Because of Lost time? 36:02 What's Your Process for Making Up Ground in the Standings 48:13 Who Has Emerged Unexpectedly in 2024 With a Great Chance to Remain Relevant? 54:10 Where the Money Went -- Is Victor Robles Back? 1:01:57 Surprising Drops: Frankie Montas, Landon Knack & Matt Wallner Follow DVR on Twitter: @DerekVanRiper Follow Jeff on Twitter: @Jeff_Erickson e-mail: [e-mail] Join our Discord: https://discord.gg/FyBa9f3wFe Join us on Thursdays at 1p ET/10a PT for our livestream episodes! Subscribe to The Athletic: theathletic.com/ratesandbarrels Hosts: Derek VanRiper With: Jeff Erickson Executive Producer: Derek VanRiper Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Welcome to Rates and Barrels, it's Monday July 22nd. Derek VanRiper here, you know, Sarah's on vacation so I am flying with guests this week and I brought in a good friend of mine, Jeff Erickson, senior editor from RotaWire. We hosted XM shows together for a long time, a few podcasts along the way. Jeff, how you doing? Thanks for joining me. TBR, I'm great.

Always good to reconnect. We try to do this like once a year basically on one of our respective podcasts. So happy to do this. Fun to talk baseball anytime. Yeah, the reunion shows are always great. And as we do most Mondays, we'll talk about some fantasy baseball news you should know since the real world is keeping a lot of people occupied.

It's nice to just have a little diversion that's different from that. So we have injuries to talk about, actually a lot of injuries. It was a bad weekend for injuries. That might be the thing you missed if you were caught up in the rest of the news. We'll talk about how we try to make up ground in the second half of the season, the types

of players we're targeting or what we do categorically speaking to make our rosters as strong as possible. At the end of the show, we'll dig into where the money went on Sunday in weekly fab leagues. And we'll talk about a few notable drops that may have some future value, even though they were just cut loose by some teams over the weekend. Let's start in Atlanta. More injuries in Atlanta. Maybe the team that's been the most snake bitten by injuries this year. Ozzy Albies and Max Fareed both go on the IL. Albies injury is a fractured wrist. The timetable is in the range of eight weeks. So this is almost a regular season ender for Albies unless he gets back maybe for the last week or two before the playoffs begin. Some questions as to whether Atlanta will be a team

in the playoffs. They're in that position right now, but it's going to be harder to hold that as these injuries pile up, Jeff. This is kind of interesting though, because they brought up a prospect. Nacho Alvarez is getting the call to the big leagues. So I'm curious, what are your expectations for Alvarez now that he's up from AAA to backfill for Albies on this roster? You know, it's kind of a meteoric rise, especially because he wasn't especially killing it in AA. Was in AAA, believe it, was the funny thing there. I was looking at him up a little bit and like in NFBC leagues, we can't bid on them yet. So I have the week to watch them at least there, but hitting for average speed, not a lot of power at

AA and yet turns around AAA and all of a sudden now like, Oh, he's got a thousand OPS. What happened here? So I, I'm curious. I mean, it's just, he's very young for the level. I think there might be a pretty steep adjustment. Uh, but we've seen other Atlanta prospects adjust pretty quickly too. So we'll see what happens with that. Has a team been hit as hard at like at the high end, as much as the Braves have Acuna, Strider, Harris, now Albies and Fried. I mean, it's, it's pretty brutal. Also my Roto-Wire staff keeper league team to Strider, uh, Albies. I just had to cut sad cut picked up Ernie Clement and dropped out Ozzy Albies.

We want to talk about like just ultimate sadness there, but it's $43. I'm not going to keep them at that price and I might get them for a week. No one can pick them up when he's on the IL. So I might as well just cut them now and have the in season salary cap room, but it's just tough, just tough all around there. And then, you know, for the Braves lineup too, and also Harris, I mean, that's another tough one there too. It's, it's tough, but, uh, I think, uh, the case of Alvarez, sure.

I mean, why not take a chance because we're looking at some of the other options there. I mentioned I picked up Ernie Clement. He's getting more playing time with the Jays now. He's been getting it actually. Even before the Bechette injury, now the Bechette injury with them being out, quote unquote, multiple weeks. It's going to pretty much lock them in for more playing time.

It's interesting that you got to watch his qualifications, only third base eligible in some leagues. Yeah, I think this is a constant source of frustration for me, more playing time. It's interesting though, you gotta watch his qualifications, only third base eligible in some leagues. Yeah, I think this is a constant source of frustration for me is the position eligibility for players that are kind of in between the guys that maybe played less than 20 games in the big leagues the previous season, they qualify at a primary position,

which is less than what they played in the minors, but that's where they played in the majors, that's where they played the most, we have to qualify them there. I just, I have found that to be increasingly frustrating in recent years, especially because there's more injuries now than ever. So we're backfilling from the player pool in ways we haven't always had to, we're digging deeper. Yeah. And it's different on different platforms too. Rhys Hines is a shortstop in the NFPC still. And I actually need him at El Elfield, believe it or not. What he said, nine games.

I need one more game DVR, but, uh, it's killing me. Hess and Kirstad took forever to be outfield eligible. Uh, you know, it just, the list goes on. I mean, it is super frustrating to deal with that, but so it goes. Uh, and you just have to kind of do when you're doing your fab bidding, you have to do that research ahead of time. Otherwise you can get stuck in a pretty gnarly position there where you got to put an injury guy in the outfield or something like that. That's happened a couple of times to me this year.

Yeah, I think with Nacho Alvarez, I think he fits kind of into that waiver wire conversation right away for 15 team leagues in 12 team leagues. It's a little bit like we talked about before the weekend. We're discussing Jacob Wilson, who unfortunately got hurt in his big debut. A different kind of profile where it's like it's hit tool first. But the thing we've seen from Alvarez that we haven't had a chance to see yet from Wilson is the stolen bases. So, you know, you have that categorical value. If you get that with a high volume playing time, a batting average, it's at least decent.

Maybe a good spot in the lineup eventually. I think with Alvarez can take a little bit of time, because even good spot in the lineup eventually. I think with Alvarez, it's going to take a little bit of time because even with some of the injuries and some of the struggles of guys like Matt Olson, they've had, they still have a good lineup in Atlanta with some of the absences. You're not just going to show up and be the lead off guy right away there. So, that's the thing that is different about Alvarez,

the stolen base category in particular. I think he brings that categorical juice, even though stolen bases are a little easier to come by these days. You need more of them. I think that's where Alvarez has a little more shallow league appeal than Wilson, despite Wilson's ridiculous minor league numbers. Yeah, absolutely.

Um, I, you know, the thing is Wilson's got the pedigree too, as a first round pick, you know, doc son, I say son of a major leaguer, uh, so that also helps the pedigree aspect of it there. Going back to the braids DVR, I say son of a major leaguer. So that also helps the pedigree aspect of it there. Going back to the Braves, DVR, I'm amazed. There's still 10 games over 500. They're there plus 58, despite everything that's happened to them. You know, and getting a subpar season from Matt Olson to boot on top of that. In Albies wasn't having his best year either for them to be able to do all this.

It speaks to a how good that core was built by Anthropolous and B how weak the national league bubble is for the wildcard this year. I'm just looking at the wildcard standings right now, uh, a team that's a 47 and 53 is the second best run differential among those in, uh, competing for the wildcard in the reds. And I'm so down on the reds. It's like every time I watch them like,

oh, this is not a playoff team. You know, I I'm a Reds fan, just for those who don't know. And I just I I'm so depressed about this. Even I turn and look at the run differentials and like nobody's good. These are all bad teams. Or they're all just decent.

Mac it's all in the eye of the beholder. I think it's it's going to, a lot's going to hinge on what happens in these next, well, seven, eight days. The trade deadline's a week from Tuesday already. The early trade deadline is not doing us any favors. It could be more fun, I guess, if more teams are aggressive, but the sellers are so bad that there isn't enough viable talent to go around.

I feel like if the deadline lets us down, it's because there's still the same number of teams that feel like they're in it a week from now that feel like they're deadline lets us down, it's because there's still the same number of teams that feel like they're in it a week from now, that feel like they're in it today. And the Reds getting swept by the Nats, I understand that's a tough weekend for sure. It's not the start of the second half you were hoping for. I keep looking at that Reds team and thinking,

hey, they've got a one, two, at least the top of the rotation that if they get into the playoffs, they'd be dangerous. We thought they were gonna score a ton of runs this year. That hasn't been the case. Maybe the bats start to wake up. I keep looking at them waiting for that that run, that stretch of 20 games where they reel off 14 or 15 wins.

And suddenly they look like one of the good teams battling for those wild cards. And it just hasn't happened. Right. And waiting is the key word. I mean, we're waiting for Noel Beymarte. We're waiting for Matt McLean. We're waiting for TJ Friedle again. We're waiting for Matt McClain. Uh, we're waiting for TJ Friedle again. Um, one of these is not like the other, but, uh, I, I think at the same time, I just, you know, CS was bad and then hurt for the rest of the year.

Uh, that was, that was a tough one for this team. Uh, it's just, they've had some retrenchment like Will Benson. We should have probably seen that he was going to retreat this year. Uh, but maybe not to this extent. Uh, the funny thing is like Jonathan, India has been on a perfectly cromulent stretch here, he's been fine. You they've had some good things happen, but it's just it's just not that dynamic of an offense right now, and it's kind of what happens sometimes.

You build around potential. Sometimes it takes a while for it to realize itself. Yeah, it seemed this time last year that the Reds rebuild was going faster than expected. Maybe it's on a more typical timeline and some of that is some injuries, of course, McClain and CES both being down. I had high expectations for Christian and Karnazion Strand. I still do. I think part of the reason he struggled this year is he tried to play through that injury for several weeks. I think that's what sapped his power. So we'll see if

I can fall into the same trap again in 2025 and have Christian and Cardasio on strand on too many rosters. Circling back to Atlanta for a moment, Max Fried is on the IL with left forearm neuritis. This is a relatively new injury that I'm starting to see get diagnosed more often, but the MRI showed no soft tissue damage. There's no official timetable for a return. He first felt this injury while warming up for his All-Star game appearance, which is a kind of a bummer, right? Right.

Get to make the All-Star team go out there and get hurt out in that particular game. This is a team that's kind of in a weird spot because of their pitching and depth injuries, too. I think AJ Smith-Schauver is the most interesting guy if he gets an opportunity. He hasn't pitched great this year at AAA. He's been a little better recently.

They brought up Dylan Dodd on Sunday. I'm very curious with the Braves, Dylan Dodd, Bryce Elder types, the non-prospect guys they have rotated through. Do you see value in any of those guys or do you try to stick more to the Hurston Waldrips when healthy, the Smith- Chauvers, the Spencer Schwellenbachs? Do you trust them as an organization that can take the less exciting arms and still make them valuable enough for fantasy purposes?

I tried that earlier this year with Elder. It didn't work out so well, but you know, I, and the thing is in draft season, I had proper reservations about Elder and then I got desperate once they called him up and he looked good for two starts at the bigs. And then he kind of appropriately punished us. So, uh, Schwalbebach is the funny thing is he's actually kind of stabilized a spot in that rotation. They finally got one of those guys to stick, you know, where they've kind of been cycling through that spot all year long. Right. And Waldrop struggled when he got the call.

Uh, Elder's struggled. Smith-Schauber, like you said, you know, has been hurt a lot. I want to see Smith Schaver again. I think that's the guy I think that has the big upside, but like you said, hasn't pitched well, hasn't pitched much. Um, and I think that's the other problem too. I don't think they bring in anybody from the outside for that spot. I think they're going to more address their offensive issues. If they do anything, I think maybe they try to add it, you know, the annual

Braves let's add an outfielder phase of the trade deadline seasons coming up here. Yeah, Alex Anthopoulos will do something. It might not be guys with multiple years of control, but I think it's at least trying to patch up some of the leaks on the roster, try to stay afloat. Why give up a season in this window? I mean, the core is so good. If they get to October, we know they're a legitimate contender should Freed come back healthy. And if Albies does make it back before the end of the season, I think they can still be a problem team come October.

You mentioned Bo Bichette's injury. It's a calf strain again. He missed four games before the All-Star break with this. You know what I did a second half bounce back candidates draft. The rules were had to be negative value by the Fangraph's player Raider in 12 team league. So Bechet was eligible.

I kind of waffled on it. So I think he's healthy because as we last Friday, it seemed like he was going to be. Okay. He's not he's on the IL and multiple weeks is what they're saying, which is not helpful because, you know, two weeks, not so bad this time of year, even though it's less than ideal, four, six, eight weeks, all of those scenarios are probably situations where I'd probably cut Beau Bichette in most formats because he has not been himself this year. I think the bigger question is, what is going on with Beau Bichette?

Do you see him, if you're in a keeper league, you're not going to win this year. Do you see Beau Bichette as someone you're trying to get right now that will make you better in the future? Or do you think that window has closed a bit? I struggle with him because the drop off has been so steep this year. And you know, you look at the cap string, you know, first of all, phrases like moderate and multiple don't help at all. There's just this they're better than light.

I mean, they're worse than light. They're worse than one to two week minimum or anything like that. But anytime I see a cast train of blue J's, I go back to Josh Donaldson lost half a season with his calf quad. I always kind of those types of injuries I'm always concerned with. I think he's, I mean, I think he's kind of a cut in redraft leagues and keeper leagues, Doug Dennis has been trying to peddle them in our league that we're I think he's kind of a cut in redraft leagues and keeper leagues. Doug Dennis has been trying to peddle him in our league that we're together in XFL.

And I haven't bit. So I guess I'm saying no there too. The thing is with with Bichette all along, we've been tracking the sprint speed, right? For like three years now. And we've noticed that we expected him to stop running a lot. If he doesn't run, what does he do? He's got to really either hit for a high average or power or both. And right now he's doing neither. It's a Roto profile that's actually similar to Tim Anderson.

Like when Tim Anderson was good, big time average, power that was good, not great. And then the speed, 15, 20 steel speed. And that speed wasn't there last year. He was five for eight as a base dealer in seasons when a season where stolen bases were just free. It never made sense. Like it didn't make sense in 2021 when Bo Bichette went 25 for 26 as a base dealer either in the old rules for stolen bases, right? Like it was to me more of a guy that should have been a 10 steel guy in the old landscape and probably be like a 15 ish steel guide now because of the decline speed.

Still picking spots, still doing that enough to be useful. And I think when you do this at shortstop in particular, the short stops who don't run are a really tricky group because most players at that position give you something in that category. So that's like another little knock against Bo Bichette. I think about how the draft market treated Carlos Correa this year outside the top 280P, I think for all of draft season. I don't know if Bo will fall quite that far,

but I think he's gonna be at least after that pick 150 range. And if he's outside the top 150 in 80P, he's probably not a foundational keeper in dynasty league player right now either, given all the questions. I mean, the other thing about Bo that we've talked about in the show before is we love pole power. It's much more consistent. It's much more reliable than oppo power. And his approach is to spray the ball over the place.

And I don't know if that lends itself to the power we really want. I don't know if he can change. I don't think his swing is built for it. I don't think he that lends itself to the power we really want. I don't know if he can change. I don't think he's, I don't think his swing's built for it. I don't think he's a swing modification guy. I think Bo is what you see is what you get as a hitter and the best versions of him might be in the rear view mirror. Maybe, maybe 2023 is the new ceiling. It's not the power and speed and average that we saw back in 21.

You're trying to say that the son of Dante Bichette doesn't adjust to to the consensus to what people think they should do. Yeah, I can see that there. Absolutely. Yeah, I'm with you on that. And I'm with you also on the pole power thing, too. I mean, I think we're going to talk about Julio Rodriguez for a different reason. But I mean, that's been a thing that's been a, you know, just a big flashing button all year long with him. And so I think the more we learn about that, the more that we kind of push on that, the more we start to see, okay, this isn't as reliable, this is going to be more mercurial. And I think that's the case with Vichette for sure.

Of the players, the Jays have been relying on more in this infield in recent weeks. Spencer Horowitz has been among them. We've seen Davis Schneider off and on all season. You mentioned Ernie Clement earlier. They've brought up Leo Jimenez. Do you see any consistent future regulars in that bunch? Do you see any inexpensive pickups that turn into long-term players that we're actually excited about in our deeper keeper leagues? I think I had to decide whether or not to keep Davis Schneider last year in the Roto-Wire Staff

keeper league and didn't and I kind of regret that a little bit but I also don't, I kind of, it's only a kind of regret. They're kind of of a similar profile too right? You know kind of late bloomers getting some playing time. Now you fight back with Spencer Horowitz, I don't know. You can get, I think they're just the, you know, in, in leagues we're playing time as King, they're useful. So an only league and 18 team mix league, 15 team mix league, you can find that there. I, I, they're, they're nice pieces. They're like your, your last keeper.

They're there, you know, just, uh, especially if they had the multi positions, I think that's always nice too. Yeah. I think of all of them, I mean, the results kind of jump off the page for Horowitz by WRC plus, and the underlying numbers are solid, decent hard hit rates, pretty good swing decisions, lifts the ball enough to provide a good barrel rate, falls into this trap of maybe doesn't run at all. So then it puts a lot of pressure on the average player of the bunch. And right now, that first and second base eligibility on a lot of places, that makes him a nice in season piece that, as he said, could hang around, maybe be a last keeper in a really deep league. But generally, I don't see a lot of long, long term upside.

The guy that I like the most, Revis Martinez, ended up getting a PD suspension. So the window was open for him. And unfortunately, it closed the way that it did. If you're shopping while working, eating, or even listening to this podcast, then you know and love the thrill of the hunt. But are you getting the thrill of the best deals? Rakuten shoppers do. They get the brands they love with the most savings and cash back. And you can get it too. Start getting cash back at your favorite stores like Old Navy, Best Buy and Expedia.

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for your buck. That's R-A-K-U-T-E-N. Let's get some other injury news here. Julio Rodriguez appears to have avoided a bad injury after a collision with the wall on Sunday. They did take x-rays on his ankle. Scott Service says he suffered a little bit of an ankle sprain.

So a little bit of an ankle sprain doesn't sound that bad. I don't know if that's just sugarcoating some potentially worse news that we'll get later in the day. But this is at a rough time because it looked like Julio was just starting to get locked in and kind of pushing things back in the direction of being the player that made him a consistent top five pick back during draft season. Yeah, absolutely. Had the big Homer on Saturday.

Unfortunately, they couldn't hold on to Lee. Unfortunately for them at least. Yeah, it's tough. When I saw the play, it looked worse than it is. You know, it looked really terrible at first. And I think at one point they're going to bring out the cart for him and then they waved it off and he, you know, limped in. But Scott's service is pretty good at telling us nothing too. So, you know, watch for that one carefully. I'm trying to figure out sometimes, I hate the, you know, the Sunday

injuries in particular, trying to figure out, okay, all right, is he going to be able to play? At least that the Mariners, they play on Monday this week? So we'll have a lineup at least to help us guide on our decision. I always hate the Monday off day and then with a, with an injury there, and then you get the Tuesday bad decision as far as that goes. Yeah. Reduce your options for Tuesday. And especially if it's a West coast team at home, have to wait even longer for that lineup and maybe lose a couple more early options to possibly sub in. So I guess if I'm making the call right now

as of almost 1230 Eastern on Monday, I think I would leave Julio in in most circumstances. It sounds like maybe it's only a game or two, but that of course could change quickly if we get a follow-up. Maybe he wakes up with more swelling and things are worse on Monday. Right.

What are you doing with him for next year, DVR? Ah, as it stands right now, I I think I'm still looking at him as someone who's going in the first two rounds. I don't think he's done enough to fall out of like the top 25 overall. I think if you were, if you're trying to pick Knits in the profile, the thing that would give me the most long-term concern about Julio Rodriguez is something he's always done, he chases. The O swing percentage has always been high, 39.5% for his career. That's just part of who he is. Part of what makes him good is that he chases and does some damage when he does it.

I think we're probably looking at a guy, his season we're over right now, thankfully it doesn't seem to be. Maybe he'd fall a little further than that. I'm in, I'm in at the discounted price because he's still he's so young. I mean, he's 23. He'll be 24 in December. Some guys his age haven't even debuted yet. And we're still excited about those players and what he did last year going

30 30 with an improved K rate and all the hard hit metrics. We like to see a hard hit rate over 50%, double-digit barrel rate, all that stuff was there already. I know Seattle's a difficult place to hit. He's already shown he could do it. And he was just starting to turn the corner again this year. So I'm still in on Julio as a longer term guy that will draft in the first round for a few more years, even if we don't do it in 2025. So I'm interested. I'm always looking at those guys that should be first rounders and aren't. Do you see anything in the profile that gives you pause? Just the poll percentage. That's the one thing you always look for. And like you alluded

to though, he was starting to come around on that aspect there a little bit too. It's like, you know, the Mariners have fan grass too. They know, they have their own metrics. They know. And this is a question of trying to get them to change a little things here and there. It's like, why does the pool percentage drop so much? I mean, I think that's the thing. What mechanics can change? I think that's the thing.

Is there something really small or is it a chase thing? You know, what is it that's changing, you know, changing things, but something about that, I will say something about right-handed hitters in Seattle. It's just, it's a real problem. And it's been all the way since the days of Richie Saxon. I mean, you know, it's just, it's safe, you know, Safeco or now I guess it's T-Mobile is always punitive. It seems like for most of the right-hand hitters that come across there, it's rare that one doesn't get affected by that. Yeah. And we've looked at the park in some detail a couple of months back.

It was a Friday live stream we did with Trevor May. One thing that's really odd about it is that that center field wall, that batter's eye, it's not flush with home plate. It kind of angles back towards left center field a little bit. I don't know if that causes some of the depth perception issues. Teasca Hernandez talked a lot about how he didn't like hitting there after leaving in free agency this off season. I mean, it's not impossible, but it does seem to be a lot more difficult than the typical park for a right-handed hitter. And it's a combination of different reasons. Obviously it boosts pitching though too. You see the strikeout rate park

factors in Seattle always at or near the top of the league. So it kind of tracks going the other way. It's like, well, if it boosts strikeouts, then it is obviously working against hitters. So I don't know, again, seeing how well Julio played last year gives me a lot of confidence that he's fine. Whatever it takes to do well there, he has found a way to manage it. But I will be a lot more careful with guys like Mitch Garver or Jorge Polanco, who I liked quite a bit. Polanco is a switch hitter and still hasn't been that good this year.

But I thought Mitch Garver was a great second catcher this year, because I thought he was going to DH, get more playing time than most catchers, bring that power that we've seen in the underlying numbers year over year and then do it with less risk of injury being just a backup to Cal rally occasionally as opposed to having to catch half the time. Yeah. Yeah. You always like that.

They're the playing time for a catcher that isn't at catcher is always the best. But yeah, I agree. It's been really bad. Mitch Hanniger went like through a huge homeless drought earlier this year too. Someone who actually had conquered the park to a certain extent before his string of just horrific injuries there. But maybe it was just because we had small sample size and happy fun ball land and not anything that was bankable as it turns out, unfortunately. Yeah. We've got one more Mariner to talk about a little bit later in the show and where the

money went section. He seems to have no problem as a righty in Seattle so far. It's been a small sample. But the other player I wanted to ask you about real quick is Ty France. He was placed on irrevocable outright waivers and France went to drive line. We like players going to drive line. It tends to make players better. It doesn't always work. Sometimes you make adjustments and the adjustments don't make you better, or you get the same result just by taking a different road. And I kind of think that's what's been happening for most of the year with Thai

France, but given what we've seen from him in his career, do you think there'll be other teams ready to pounce and say, Hey, he's an upgrade to our infield situation, we're going to throw them out there at first base and make him a semi regular, even a regular, because if this ballpark is deflating righties, just getting out of Seattle alone might make Thai France somewhat interesting for us again. Snake Plissken escape from Safeco or escape from T-Mobile.

Maybe the Houston Astros, you know, they could do a ready lefty thing with Jonathan Singleton. Maybe that's a possibility. Uh, and we've been talking about the Astros getting a first wave since somewhere down the line. I think someone, anyone will take a chance. I mean, I think the Reds could use them, you know, take a chance on them there too.

I think it'd be another option. Uh, but you know, it's been a two year decline for him too. He was awful last year. I think that's something to kind of forget. He, and he was healthy last year too. 158 games, tons of plate appearances. I don't really have too many answers, except he's kind of a late, late cook guy to begin with their, you know, debuted at age 24, really didn't come into a full plate full-time playing time until age 26.

It's a short, you know, it's a kind of a short peak. I think that might also be true. It doesn't have, you know, it doesn't have young player aging, young player skills. No, no, he doesn't. But I like that he's got a career high barrel rate this year. 9.2% lowest swing percentage since 2020, which you know, shortened seasonally played 43 games that year.

The trade off has been more strikeouts than we've seen since the start of his big league career, right? We saw him run low to mid 20% K rates back in 19 and 20 and that's what he's doing so far this year. But I think you're right. There's a handful of teams, Astros, Reds, among them that make a lot of sense. I mean, the park factors lottery, something I talk a lot about in the off season. Sometimes you get it in season with a trade or a waiver claim. I think if he were to land in Cincinnati, Thai France would pop back up on some

12 team rosters just to see what happens. Could be a temporary thing, but I think people would take that bait just to see if those adjustments start to pay off in a new environment. Kind of rapid fire through a few of these here. We got Carlos Correa with a right to plantar fasciitis problem that has put him on the IL. Anything with the feet with Carlos Correa is just an extra red flag now. And I've been more on the side of taking the risk with Correa than a lot of people. But as I mentioned earlier in the show,

he does fit that profile. Even when it's good, he hurts you because you have to go get those bags from some other spot. If Carlos Correa is your middle infielder, you're probably getting a zero or something close to a zero in steals, and someone else has to pick up that slack. It's amazing to me is I often look at the stolen bases as a little proxy for defensive

range and that's just not something that's true with Korea. You know, Korea's defensive reputation has held high all this time. His last stolen base though is 2019. It's wild to see that there, but you're at least you're getting some power. You were getting the hitting. The hit tool was great this year. This is something you hadn't gotten last year. Um, but unfortunately, yeah, I kind of expected him to be, you know, this is the injuries that we kind of expect out of him and plantar fasciitis. It's, it's no fun at all. It's the sort of thing. It just, it's going to take a whole off season to kind of fully cure, you know,

even when he does come back, he's going to be kind of somewhat impacted by that. Right. And given the past issues with his feet, with his ankles, like you just, you worry that it's connected. It's a related problem that won't, won't get completely better until he gets that prolonged stretch of rest. So definitely more concerned about Korea than it'd be about other players trying to come back from that injury in season.

On the good news front, we have Mike Trout starting a rehab assignment with Salt Lake this week. That's a little sooner than I expected. They were saying he was hoping to do this by the end of the month, so maybe a week ahead of schedule. Good news there. JT Real Mudo came off the IL on Saturday, so nice little boost for a Phillies lineup that didn't even need it, but good for us on the fantasy side to get Real Mudo back. And the Dodgers, they got Tyler Glass now coming back from the tall guy back injury, as he referred to it. That's coming on Wednesday with Clayton Kershaw rejoining

the Dodgers rotation on Thursday. And the Kershaw one continues to amaze me. I didn't think Clayton Kershaw was going to pitch at all this year, Jeff. I was not optimistic about it. And the Dodgers could conceivably get two months out of him in a rotation that desperately needs it if he's got that stuff kind of back to where it was last year. Do you think the fact that they desperately needed it kind of accelerated the timetable just a little bit? I mean in some ways it's that's possible but the arm is what it is like he

the velocity kind of looks similar in these last couple of rehab starts to what we'd seen a year ago. I worried that he'd come back and it'd be 86, 87 and be like, well, this isn't going to work at all. But I'm cautiously optimistic that we could get, I don't know if we're going to get ratios like we saw in 23 or 22. How underrated is the later part of Clayton Kershaw's career because of injuries? Absurd ratios, still over a strikeout per inning. Yeah, you can't pencil them in for even 150 anymore, but even if you get this for a partial season, those are ace ratios over a few months at a time. That's still really valuable for us. There's such a disconnect between Clayton Kershaw, what, you know, compared to what,

you know, the, his body of work versus also like some other perceptions, like ask a Dodger fan and it's always, oh, he's, he always blows it in the playoffs or something like that. Well, yeah, he was pitching on three days rest in a game seven and all that, you know, a lot of these times. It's a very interesting legacy that he has. For this year, I'm a little concerned about how deep he's into games he's going to be able to go. He's thrown 10 innings so far and the minors. I mean, he's had three minor league rehab starts and he had a setback after the first. So I'm pretty cautious. I'm excited because he's Clayton Kershaw. He's a goat. But at the same time,

I don't know how much you're going to get out of him. Is he going to even go five in his first couple of starts? Yeah, I think the last outing he had at AAA was 67 pitches. So, tack on 15, that seems to be kind of the rubric for a lot of teams. It'll give you 15 more than last time. I think he'd go five with 82 pitches. It's doable. He could. It's doable. And he gets the Giants to start too. I mean, that's a pretty good landing spot there. They avoided the Red Sox. And then if all holds, I think our projected starters grid has them against Oakland after that. But it's going to be a kind of a, it's going to be, it's a lot of moving parts right now. We've got River Ryan making a start tonight.

We've got, you know, Robleski. We'll see what if he goes to they they skip like a land and neck in there at some point. They've got five games the following week, a couple off days. So it's going to be tricky to kind of pin down where they're going to make their next starts. I get the sense that the Dodgers are going to quietly go back to the six man rotation. They do that from time to time because they want to keep everybody fresh. I think the Tyler Glasnow back injury

was just a way of giving them an extra breather around the all-star break. The kind of thing that you would have pitched through if it were September, October stretch run and they needed them to, but they sort of leaned into the schedule and let that work the way that it did. So if you're saying, you know,

who are the best six starters for the Dodgers right now? Glassnow, Kershaw, Gavin Stone. I think River Ryan out of the box is gonna be better than Justin Robleski. So I'd probably put Ryan ahead of Robleski. Knack is tougher to evaluate. And then I kind of like what he's bringing to the table. And James Paxton just looks dunzo.

So I kind of wonder if maybe Paxton gets bumped and they lean a little more on the young guys for a while, just to sort out where things are at for them, you know, come October, because I think the hard thing for the Dodgers is. Relying on this entire group to be healthy. And if you, if you don't, if you don't know how you're going to hold up physically, or if your most important pitchers are going to hold up physically, you have to answer some questions about that secondary group to know who you're going to prioritize in the most critical spots

if you don't have all of the Glass Now Kershaw group that you want to have available. Bueller to me is also a complete question mark. I have very... As is Bobby Miller. Yeah, very low expectations. Bueller to me is also complete question mark. I have very- As is Bobby Miller. Yeah, very low expectations for Bueller and Miller. If you're throwing a fly, you're stashing one of those guys right now

in a relatively shallow league. Which one do you prefer between Bueller and Bobby Miller? Gosh, probably Bueller, but it's not a ringing endorsement. This whole season's kind of been a disaster for the Dodgers if you think about it the whole point of them is to be geared up and be like at peaks peak capacity for the playoffs. Now they have yamamoto on the sixty day i'll be alert a slow rolled and he still didn't get the benefit from that miller had this injury are there counting on him being a rotational pete's me right now for the playoffs. being a rotational Pete's. I mean, right now for the playoffs, you're looking at glass now, snow, stone,

and then hopefully Kershaw, hopefully, you know, and then a lot of hope. And that's just, they just don't know. And, you know, this is supposed to be like, they've been sick and tired of being that not ready for the playoffs and there are closer situations, a mess again, at like, as it's been for a couple of these times in the playoff runs. I mean, who can forget that they they changed

their clothes or a month before the playoffs started with Kimberl a couple years ago. Now Phillips is a mess. I mean, it's just it's for such a good team for a team that's going to make the playoffs. We know they're going to make the playoffs. It's a disaster. Like Atlanta, they've had their share of big injuries too, right? I mean, you have course. He was Mookie for a while on top of the pitching injuries. We talked about lose Muncie for a while. He's not on the same level, but he's important to them.

He's a key, key part of that lineup. I think it's weird that they've kind of cruised along without addressing shortstop for as long as they have. It's just, it's strange that a team this good just doesn't have the long term solution at that position. You don't really see that player on the horizon in their minor league system just yet either, at least not as someone who's like knocking on the door for, for 2025, but yeah, they, they need a little bit of help all over the roster.

And I think that's the, that's the case with most contenders. Like we have even among the teams that are clearly projected to be in the postseason. I think we have a lot of parody. I think we could have another bizarro October where we see two wildcard teams match up in the world series and it wouldn't be that surprising at all. Absolutely. I mean, look at the Yankees stretch over the last month. I mean, look at the Orioles back of the rotation.

Uh, I think the Phillies are the most complete team out there probably. But I mean, they could use another outfielder. You know, they don't really have one set closer. They have a bunch of good pieces in their bullpen, but it's interesting to see they don't necessarily have that hierarchy. I don't know if you need to have that, but it is interesting. You're right. I think there is a lot of parity.

Right now, the Phillies look remarkably healthy on their depth chart. Yeah. Yeah. Especially now they got Real Muto back. Absolutely. But they've been through some stuff between Real Muto and Turner and a couple of the pitchers have been dinged up at times. Harper, Schwartberg had trips, yep. Hanging in there though so far. Let's get to our strategy talk for today. I just wanted to ask you some general questions about what your process is for making up ground in the standings. When you start to go through the process of trying to chase down the teams in front of you, where do you begin?

Is it category by category? Is it looking at your roster, looking at what they've done versus what they're projected to do and trying to find over and under performers? Like what's your process at this point in the year? Yeah, I think you have to necessarily shift from putting out fires to actually, you know, diving. Maybe you probably should have even done this a month ago is like start really figuring out,

okay, where can I make up ground? Where am I strong? Where do I have a surplus for that matter? One of my, I think failings lately is I've focused so much in the NFVC and I love it, don't get me wrong. Uh, but you know, I focused my analysis on that sometimes that I overlooked, like it's a different strategy in trade leagues and labor in tout, for instance, there. Uh, I should be a little bit more aggressive earlier on in, in trading.

And I tried to, in some leagues that's really tough. Like I tried to trade Luis heal and ale ale towers before, uh, like, but just before he had those couple of bad starts, you know, and he was at the peak of his powers and I just needed hitting is I spent 200 bucks of my auction budget, ale only on hitting and I still needed hitting. That's how it tells you how my season's going. But, um, and meantime though, like I hit on heel and like, okay, well, let's go try to get Randy or Rosa Raina for him.

Uh, no, the guy's got plenty of strikeouts. He doesn't want that deal. Okay. Fine. That's fair enough for reason why not to, uh, but I, I could point is I couldn't get a deal done. It's really hard to trade like pitching for hitting. So, uh, that long preamble side, I'm totally digging into the categories.

Now, uh, even in like non-trade leagues, like, like I mentioned, uh, the NFBC, I've got Evan Phillips as my only closer. And then the NFBC main event, I've got 25 saves. That's 13th, that's 13th and, uh, out of 15 teams. I'm this close to VR to just saying screw it with closers and just going nine starters every single week. Now, um, there, there might be a ratio cost, but also if I do that, I can also, I can still get good relievers, get good ratios there, but I feel like it's a way, it's kind of freeing.

Now, Devin Williams is going to be available. We can't pick them up until he actually gets called up because he was on draft in that league. So it may be my one last hope, but I missed out on Daniel Hudson yesterday. That's another tail. Whoa. For another day. Uh, but, uh, I may have zero closers right now, so I may just on Daniel Hudson yesterday. That's another tail of woe for another day.

But I may have zero closers right now. So I may just say, okay, well, let's lean into this here. Let's just crush wins and strikeouts. Let's just do this here. And that's one way to look at it. Sometimes it's just looking at potential downside and figuring out, okay, what can I afford to give up? And maybe I can make ground otherwise there.

And I think you can do that with the specialty categories. You can do it with saves. You can do it with stolen bases very easily. If you're already hurting that category, just to wave your hand and say, I'm done with it there stolen bases last year in the road of our staff keeper league. I had, I won the league despite having one point in stolen bases and an 18 team league, it's tough to punt a category and win there, but helps have Spencer Strider at three bucks, but that goes a long way, but it can be done.

Yeah, I think if you haven't at this point in the season decided you can punt a category, then you're never gonna punt it. Like you have to learn to make that move now because you need to use the last two months to your benefit. You can make up that ground if you actually do get away from the categories that you're really only lose maybe a point or two, and maybe already in last in a category.

Maybe you accidentally punted it already. Like just stop allocating the resources toward it. And I think where that becomes even more tricky is if you're in a league that allows trading, which is most people, most people play in leagues where you can trade. I'm in one right now where I've got, I think, three hitters hitting above 235. So I'm second to last in average, but anybody hitting for a good average probably needs to be traded off that roster.

I need to lean into the fact that my average is just cooked and just push for power and push for bags and just say, okay. And also not pick up players whose second or third category or even the first best category is actually batting average. Like, just use that to your benefit. Don't chase the players that will be OK pickups in terms of actual value, even if they're not going to be if they're not going to be valuable to your team. That's like it seems so obvious, but I think we get caught in the who's the best

player available, who's the best player available. If you think about it, who's the best player available for this roster right now in this situation and really start to kind of push that way. As far as your trading goes, you're right. I think it is very hard to make trades in a lot of industry leagues, especially because even beyond the industry leagues, people try to look through the same lenses for rest of season value, be that rest of season projections through the auction calculator or the fan graphs player rater or something like the RotoWire earned auction values tool. I like having something to quantify what a player has done so far. Most people do.

So if you're using that, you almost have to come up with some kind of solution to work around that where you're taking what looks like maybe a loss to get deals done because somebody, the other side has to win the trade to even say yes to it. And I think structuring a deal that you both benefit from that looks like a win for the other person is really hard to do. Yeah, I agree. I agree. And I think the prevalence of those player raiders out there is, you know, it's grown. And I think that's made it harder. I think you're absolutely right. I think the other thing to do is, you know, I'm wearing in these trade leagues is like who you trade with, you know, it's not just helping yourself. It's also like attacking your opponent's flank. Like, uh, if, if you can trade away, if you're trading away a closer, for

instance, there, try to trade them to a team that's catching your rival in the saves, you know, you know, that's another thing, another way of doing it there. Make him think about him or her. Think about, uh, you know, okay, well, I now have to go get saved. And, you know, it can be really freeing if you're doing that there too. Um, sometimes that, yes, remember, it's not just you get saves. And you know, it can be really freeing if you're doing that there too. Sometimes that, yes, remember, it's not just you gaining points, it's your opponent losing points.

That points to saints. Now the problem is if it's a multivariable equation there, it's not just you versus one other owner. Typically it's you versus like three or four other owners and maybe six and you don't realize it. The bigger the league, especially there. So that can be a little harder. But I think that's another thing is like, I mean, trades are necessarily a collaboration to, especially there. So that can be a little harder, but I think that's another thing is like,

I mean, trades are necessarily a collaboration to begin with there. You might as well start to think of it in those little Machiavellian terms there, make them think about, okay, well, I can hurt my opponent doing this too. Absolutely. I think that gets lost a lot of times in Roto leagues.

People just are not thinking about ways to help the teams catch the teams in front of them, the other teams that are in the equation. Right. The other broad way to think about trading is, is there a certain type of player that you're more likely to go after because they're more attainable? I mean, I don't know if you at this point in the year, is it easier to go trade for Gleyber Torres than it is to trade for David Hamilton? Like the pop up player always seems like the player that it depends on the manager.

And sometimes, like some cases, like who, who has this player and how clingy are they to, to their process of I got this player in fab. So I'm a genius or I found this player in the 28th round and I'm just going to hold the player forever. But do you have, do you find that people are more likely to move a certain type of player, especially this time of year? Absolutely. I mean, all along that, you know, it's always been for each buy low, sell high. Chris list always used to say by lowest.

Well, guess what? And late July, it's a lot easier to buy lowest than it is in May. Yeah. You know, it's like, you know, Oh, he's, he's bouncing back. Now it's four months of this. Now it's like, Oh, I can just wash my hands of the, he's, he's cooked. He's toast. It's not a lot of times you do get a good, and you're going to get them at, at a reasonable price. That's, that's the whole lesson there. Um, I think that's absolutely a good thing to try to do. Right. I mean, you could actually trade for Matt Olson now, whereas I feel like in May,

you probably weren't getting a deal done because most people who had Matt Olson said, Matt Olson is going to be fine. He's going to hit 30 or 35 homers and drive in a ton of runs and do all the things the projection said he was going to do. The faith has been shaken over time. It always tends to work out that way. Sure. So where do you draw the line between good value in this regard and a player that's just cooked? Is Paul Goldschmidt an actual good by lowest target or is this just the end for a guy that was really good for a long time? Yeah, I mean, age is the question there, right?

I think whereas Olsen's a little bit younger, whereas Torres is what, 27 still, 28? I think you get a guy, a first baseman in his mid thirties and you worry he's about to go Jose Abreu on you. I mean, I think that's there is that, that concern, uh, but Goldschmidt wasn't Abreu. He was mobile easy. You know, you think he's going to be different. Goldschmidt remember he had a dip before he went to the Cardinals.

There's a reason why the Arizona trade in way thinking they were trading them at the right time. And then he turned around and had an MVP season in St. Louis after that. So I'd be, you know, Goldsmith's a tougher one to kind of wash my hands of. Um, I think, you know, and it's a specific example, I think that makes it harder to tell, but I think he's the type of player we probably should be thinking about that a little bit more often. I'm worried about the cliff a little bit there pitchers.

It's velocity is usually our velocity and other metrics kind of can tell us the tail a little bit more. I feel like we have more tools at our disposal to try to help us with pitching than we do with hitting. Yeah, I think that's the case too. I mean, I think that's where like, you know, pitching plus and stuff models.

You look at the way we can get very granular with pitching analysis. I think it rightfully gives us more confidence in our pitching analysis than we used to have. And when we're looking at Goldschmidt or any old hitter, we have a couple of new toys like the bat speed stuff at Statcast is kind of interesting, but we don't have previous years yet. I think once we get a few years into it, we'll say, oh, OK, that speed has

declined this much over this three year window. OK, maybe this really is the end. But if we see the bat speed actually hasn't changed, maybe the raw ability hasn't fallen off as much. There's there's more to hitting than just bat speed. But it just feels like we're lagging behind in the available granular information about hitters. I would completely agree with that.

And I think maybe that creates more buying opportunities if you can find reasons to be clingy. I mean, part of what I liked about Beau Bichette in the second half bounce back draft was that even though he's been terrible, I thought he'd play every day because I thought that calf injury was behind him. Clearly it's not. But Cabrion Hayes, like I look at Cabrion Hayes and say, that's kind of a by-loist. He's disappointed us for the better part of three years now.

But I think now we're getting to the point where people are saying, all right, it's just not going to happen. I just see a guy who's going to play every day. And if he happens to have his best two months in the last two months, maybe it works out and I'm getting a player for a fraction of the price he would have been on draft day, a guy that was a top 150 pick in a lot of leagues, and I'm getting a player for a fraction of the price. He would have been a draft day guy that was a top one 50 pick and a lot of leagues. Maybe I'm giving up a bottom of the roster sort of player for him and he could be a regular for me.

He was a cut in 12 team leagues when he got hurt. You know, I saw him on the waiver wire in places. I may have placed him on the waiver wire in a place. That's possible. You want to talk about a six week stretch plus spring training that really fooled us, Cabrion A's what thought, oh, the power's finally kicking in guys. Um, that's possible. You want to talk about a six week stretch plus spring training that really fooled us, Cabrera is what thought, oh, the power's finally kicking in guys. It's coming.

It's happening. Um, I feel like it's arrested development there. It's happening, but, uh, no, uh, you know, I think the, it's a great point. You know, playing time is going to help us, but, you know, funny thing is for a while he was even losing some playing time with the pirates, uh, you know, there was a couple of days off here and there and even they were starting to lose patience with them. But his defense is so good that I guess Hayes keeps up. Hayes should keep getting chances. I mean, because let's face it, if

he doesn't hit, I mean, it's a big failure for the organization. Yeah. I think the growth we thought we were seeing in the second half of last season also tricked me a little bit with Cabrion Hayes as well. One other in-season question, is there any player that's popped up this year relatively unexpectedly that you're believing in as a legitimate, hey, we're going to care a lot about this player going forward. Spencer Steer was kind of one of those guys last year that I was pretty skeptical of all season long and he ended up coming in with an ADP close to the top 100, I think, when it was all all said and done. And some of this goes all the way back to the Jose Bautista surprising

breakout years ago, which I think cost me a burrito to you. We had a bet the year after that happened. I took the under on whatever it was. It was like 25 homers for Jose Bautista. I'm like, no chance, no way. This was the flukiest thing we ever saw. And he for Jose Bautista. I'm like, no chance, no way. This was the flukiest thing we ever saw. And he hit like 40 years ago. We talked about one such player last night, Brenton Doyle. I whiffed completely on Brenton Doyle. I was, I was, I just dismissed it.

You know, it was like, oh yeah, we're going to pick them up and drop them again this year. And no, no, he's like a top 20 player. Uh, there has been surprising amount of growth and I never expect that from the, a pace eating Rocky. Uh, but you know, here we are. He's actually had that growth and. You know, I still don't think he can trust them on the road that much, but I mean, it's just been so good otherwise. Um, so yeah, uh, that that's one guy.

Next year I'll, I'll definitely treat, treat him a lot more seriously. Yeah. Brenton Doyle is the guy everyone hoped Nolan Jones one guy next year. I'll definitely treat him a lot more seriously. Yeah. Brenton Doyle is the guy everyone hoped Nolan Jones would be this year. And Jones has been hurt. I think when people say what happened to Nolan Jones, he had a back injury and then the same back injury put him on the IL a second time. It's just, it's a lost season for him. But I also missed on Doyle. And the annoying thing about it is I remember, I remember Derek Cardy's system, the Bat X spit out a pretty nice projection for Brenton Doyle. And I looked at it and I looked at what he did last year, he struck out 35% of the time and I said, that's stupid. That projection's dumb. It's like the projection is what it is. Why would I argue

with that? And the other part of this with Brenton Doyle that I think needs to be always part of the analysis is just the lack of experience for players needs to leave the door open for the possibility of improvement, regardless of age. And then the added context, the pace eating Rockies did really well here. They found Brenton Doyle as a fourth rounder out of Sheppard University. found Bretton Doyle as a fourth rounder out of Sheppard University. So if we think about the varying levels of competition that players see on their way to the big leagues, you know, amateur pro side, we've, we've talked about AAA being down the overall pool of pitching

in the minor leagues being weak. Um, the decimated short season leagues having an impact on player development. All of those things are, if they're all true, it's going to take players longer to find their stride against top level pitching. So I think this is a classic example for me getting too fixated on one thing that didn't look good and not just looking at the fact that there was power right away and there

was speed right away and Brenton Doyle was a fantastic defender in center field right away. And those are all exciting things that should lead us to take chances on players, especially when the cost is almost zero, which is what it was during draft season. So like knowing all that and then seeing that projection and still just looking the other way. It's a big whiff for me too. I don't think we're the only ones in the ballpark.

And we used to over inflate Rockies all the time. The ghost Ben Petrik is just hovering. They're saying, remember me. You know, uh, but yeah, what are we doing? I mean, we, we just got, I got so jaded about the Rockies. Um, what am I doing? I'm not going to say we, I, what did I do wrong? I just, I, I, I, I didn't get my cores. I mean, you know, it's that simple and I know it's not the same course field as before, especially in terms of the power.

It's still major major plus park too. And you can see it in his splits. His splits are still terrible, by the way. It's still like a 300 point and OPS gap between home and away. So I mean, there's still that with Doyle, but yeah, he's improved a strikeout rate by 10%. I think one of the things that illustrates to is, and I think we're seeing this with a lot of young players is the gap between AAA and the majors is as big as it's ever

been. And for a while we were kind of attributing that to like the last year in 2020, the COVID year, how a lot of players didn't play at all and how that maybe messed up a lot of the natural progression. But the gap still exists. I mean, we saw so many prospects struggle this year initially there. Jackson Holliday is one of the big ones there, but so many of them struggled initially that I think maybe we kind of still have to remember that year two is

going to be a lot better in many cases. Yeah. And we've seen it even within the season with Jackson Churio. I mean, Jackson Churio, April and May versus June and July, completely different player, but it like, if we're willing to give Jackson Churio a pass because he's so young, I don't know why we're less willing to give Brenton Doyle a pass,

given that Doyle, aside from playing at a small school, also had the start of his professional career interrupted by the lost COVID season. He should have been at low A in 2020. He didn't play. So it's just, we just can't dismiss these factors as meaningful. And I think the strikeout rate in the minors is the one thing if Brenton Doyle has taught me anything, it's that I need to be more optimistic about Reese Hines,

maybe striking out less over time in the big leagues. It is possible. And because of the tantalizing power, the fact that he has some speed and he has some defensive value, all of those things are good things that could make Reese Hines a better player than projections would even tell you based on those high K rates we've seen throughout his time in the minors. Yeah, I think it's easy. And I think it's still the strikeout rate in the minors is still pretty fair proxy for how a player is going to hit for average

in his first year in the bigs. I think that still holds true a lot. And it's like 38% at AAA for Heinz. I mean, it's astoundingly high. Um, but it does, you know, I think you're right that this kind of have some optimism for year two, for sure. Lesson learned thanks to Brenton Doyle. Simple question for you here.

As we kick off our last segment, where the money went, I'm not allowed to even answer this question. That's why I have to ask it. Is Victor Robles back? You know, um, I wasn't so much on him. And then I saw like the best player in my NFBC league, take him. Uh, Steve Jupinka took them in the main event. Uh, you know, he went and got them a reaction to Julio's injury. I thought, but then I looked at the numbers a little closer, like, whoa.

Wow. He's really having a pretty good year with the Mariners. What happened there? The mayor of all places, the Mariners, you know, you know, that's, that's the thing. It's amazing. There's a easy, it's easy to say sample size is an issue here. But I think there's at least, it's worth exploring. It's at least worth taking a stab and seeing if maybe there's something there. But it's just so weird to see him flop with the Nats and then excel with the Mariners. It just doesn't feel right. But he might be getting a lot of playing time coming soon here. So that's one thing that we should start to look for a little bit. Yeah. So I mean, I think part of the fallout of being willing to let Ty France go is that Luke

Rayleigh plays more at first base, right? So he take him out of the corner outfield mix. Robles was already playing every day throughout the past week. So regardless of Julio's status, there is a place for him potentially. And he started moving up in the order. I think I only picked him up in one league because I'm not going to get out of my mind about. You have a brand. I've been hurt enough times here, but my intrigue comes from not really getting a look at a healthy Victor Robles last year in the new stolen base environment where, hey, you're playing every day and he's a good defender and you're just doing that, hitting for an okay average, getting on base enough to play,

stealing 30 or 40 bags cheaply like that, that plays. Like if you told me, yeah, he actually he's back, he's going to be Willie Castro from a five by five perspective the rest of the way. That plays, like that's a decent fantasy player. And if Steven Dupinka is on Victor Robles, then we should all probably leave our minds open to the possibility that Victor Robles does in fact have something left in the tank, given how good Dupinka has been, well, pretty much forever. Other players that got picked up this weekend of no, we've talked a lot about Luis Ortiz and the adjustments he's made this season. He's currently stepped into the Pirates rotation and really filled a backend spot capably. The two guys that we haven't talked a lot about, Ryan Nelson

and Albert Suarez. Nelson came out and pitched really well in his first start of the second half against the Cubs and that matinee on Friday. So I think that drove some interest. And Suarez, because of the injuries, some of the ineffectiveness in the back of the Orioles rotation Looks more stable now than he did really at any point earlier this season as a member of you know Good teams rotation going forward. So what was your interest level in Nelson and Suarez and some of the other pitchers that were out there this weekend? So I've been rostering Suarez for about a month now. Uh, so I'm, I, I'm just, it's, it's a hold. In fact, I was like, Oh, well, maybe he's going to lose that spot. Maybe we should kind of like, Nope. He's got two, I think three or four

weeks ago. Nope. He's got two good starts. We'll hold onto them. And it worked out. Uh, and so I've just kind of remained loyal and I kind of just wait when he, you know, hold onto him and then he gets, you know, the Marlins to start off this week. And then the Padres, that one scares me a little bit, especially not in Petco, but instead in Baltimore, although Baltimore is not obviously a much better place to pitch now than it ever has been in the past, but, uh, yeah, I, I, he's interesting.

I still remember, you know, he made his debut, uh, when Jackson holiday spring training debut, when Jackson holiday did against the Phillies on that ESPN game and he kind of stole the show, you know holiday still a good mind you but Suarez was the sneaky find in that you know watching that game and you're like Oh kind of square, you know square that one away and it's kind of worked out so far. So yeah, I'm on board with him I'm using him and we and even 12 team resist this week. Yeah, I think he's quite interesting to me Ryan Nelson kind of done the whipsaw thing with him.

Let's face it, when Nick Pollock talks up a pitcher, we listen and he did a little bit in draft season. So I think I rostered him in a couple of places, deeper leagues, even had a first couple of good starts, then got hurt, been kind of in and out on him. This Kansas City start, I'm not sure if I'm in or not on him. What are you? Kind of leaning towards in for deep leagues.

This is where the money went focuses on 12 team leagues. I don't know if I want to use Ryan Nelson at a 12 team league. The Royals have been a team that I tried to stream against earlier in the year, got burned a few times and I've been a little more careful about it. So Nelson to me is right on that borderline of probably not good enough or consistent enough for me to feel good about using him in that matchup. So I was not in on Nelson, even though I was impressed by that start on Friday. Yeah. You know, it's a matchup of two teams that are kind of sneaky. I mean, Arizona's hurt some teams too, especially hurting some left-handers, ask anybody

at Justin Steele on Friday about that. But yeah, they've been pretty sneaky in that respect too. Yeah, so yeah, and then, you know, a couple other guys, you know, I see like we're, you know, talking about some of the other pickups there. Well, we're gonna talk relievers later. So I'll hold off on that. My tail of woe for that. Oh yeah, Daniel Hudson was popular and I'm just,

I'm not convinced that the Dodgers sit tight without upgrading that back into the bullpen. And maybe it's, you know, going to a team like the Marlins and trading for Tanner Scott. Like we saw Ben Joyce and we saw AJ Puck picked up in a lot of leagues. Cause you want to be a week ahead of the deadline if you can. The bids are going to be much smaller

on those players last night than they will be either this coming weekend if it happens before the deadline or the following weekend of a trade happens you know in the actual deadline day on the 30th. But for Hudson I mean it was probably a relatively inexpensive bid for you wasn't it? Well okay so you would think that DVR and this is keep in mind the history here too. I have Evan Phillips in the NFPC main event. Um, I did the whole free look thing, bought the Hudson for his win in Korea. Got a bonus save from that. When Phillips went on the aisle, I picked Hudson back up again.

I still have Phillips and I don't know what happened to him, but he can't get a left-hander out to save his life. Um, last night happened. I re I had a small bid on Hudson just because Phillips has been leaking oil to begin with, and then I'm watching the Sunday night baseball game and fortunately, and of course it had to happen on Sunday night, right before the fab deadline. I upped my bid from $7 to 37 and then 37 to 43 to start. Well, let's just go a little higher.

Just in case I lost 44 to 43 to start. Well, let's just go a little higher. Just in case I lost 44 to 43, uh, the one team, the guy I absolutely have to have, you know, it's just because I have Phillips. My other, uh, you know, I had Jordan Romano as my second closer. So, you know, this is why I'm looking at just saying the heck with it and not getting a save the rest of the season. Um, we'll see about this, but if I don't get Devin Williams later, but you know, just the guy that's been on Hudson all year then loses them when I absolutely have to have them buy a buck. Come on. And it's the guy that's behind me in saves to another reason why

I should just forget about saves. So it's just all adding up that nine starters is going to be the way to go or like I'll throw in ginkle for a week just when I have a bad set of matchups. Hudson has been really good around all the injuries kind of going back to 2022. It's so unavailable. That's been dragging him down. But yeah, he looks like their best option if they don't shake things up in the pen. So that could end up being an inexpensive move that pays a big amount in the second half or end of the season here. I just, I don't think they're going to ride into the postseason window with Daniel Hudson as their closer, but I could be wrong.

Let's talk about a few notable drops. Frankie Montas, Landon Nack, Matt Wallner, among the more heavily cut players in 12 team leagues. I thought people were excited about Wallner. Jeff, he just came back up, just got his first day off on Sunday since that recall. What's the problem? Why people, is he just a streamer in 12s?

Cause I think the raw power potential to me gives him a chance to be much better than that if the playing time is stable. Yeah. Um, I can't speak to the drops cause I'm a person that picked him up, be honest and other places a week ago. I, and I actually, it's funny, you list that land and neck is another drop and that's a guy I picked up in leagues this week. So, uh, I'm on the neck, I guess, but, uh, I don't know.

Uh, both of those guys, I don't understand the drops. I can't speak to them. I think with things getting more crowded than Dodgers rotation, maybe there's a fear that landed in that gets optioned back down, but as we talked about earlier, I think Robleski Paxton could both get bumped out of the mix sooner and I think there's a good chance they're going to use six starters for a stretch here in that Dodgers rotation. As someone who's seen probably more Frankie Montas than you would care to admit so far

this year, if the Reds do in fact become sellers, Montas makes a lot of sense as a starter that a contending team might want to just round out the back of their rotation. Would you be more interested in Montas getting out of Cincinnati given the home run issues and given what that home park instance that he does to home run issues? Yeah, I could see it. He's actually been worse on the road this year is the funny thing. Isn't it? Yeah, 520 ERA on the road.

But then again, I mean, you're talking micro sample here too. I mean, that's that's part of the problem. And you're just talking about a guy that had shoulder problems recently. He's basically a streamer at this point in time in a 12. I think the days of Frankie Montas, like the Oakland Frankie Monta, I think those are over. I don't think we see a guy like that. Yeah, it's unfortunate.

I also saw the Reese Olsen drops because of injury. I mean, is's the assumption. I'm wondering if you look at that Tigers team and because of their home park, kind of similar question I asked you about Atlanta earlier in the show. Do you throw a lot of darts in Detroit because of park factors?

Now we're in the hot part of the calendar where every park plays a bit differently, but you know, Cater Montero has been up for a little while now. They've been so banged up that I think people are wondering if they're in contention if we're actually going to see Jackson Job at some point during these final couple of months. Yeah, that yeah, they can get him rolling. And yeah, I mean, because you look at that Tigers rotation are so banged up right now that they

still have to keep my ADA in there and a seven eraRA somehow. Wentz is getting an opening I think on Tuesday. I mean they really are just hurting right now to kind of get the healthy arm. So yeah, I mean I dropped Olson because it's a shoulder especially and it's gotten worse as the diagnosis as it's gone on too. So yeah, that's someone that I think is a drop. Yeah, I do. I do throw darts in Detroit. Just like I do Cleveland, to be honest, even though Cleveland's ballpark has changed this year, kind of the one the ones I didn't see coming, at least to the extent that I did that change. I still throw Cleveland darts because of their history with pitching. So do you have a bunch of Ben Lively on your teams then? I don't have enough of Ben Lively. No, that's one I don't have. But like,

I was I got Tanner by B everywhere. Um, that was like my, that was a target for me. Um, and for about a month I was really hating life too. And then it's turned out okay, but still every once in a while you kind of get a little nervous with them, but yeah, it's kind of funny that Cleveland's had such a good year and it's not because of their pitching at all. Uh, you know, Carlos Carrasco has been. A replacement level pitcher a little bit better lately, but not that great.

Uh, even Gavin Williamson's coming back, hasn't been that great. I, it's one of those things where we keep, oh yeah, Cleveland, they're so good with pitching. No, it's not the pitching that's getting them there this year. I've been shocked at how they've done it. I was worried that because they didn't have that next wave of starting pitching, that this was going to be a year where the guardians underperformed and they have just done it a completely different way.

I've admitted that I'm wrong, but I still look at the twins as a more complete team, a more dangerous team in the AL Central. I still think they're going to find a way to win that division. Over Cleveland this year, but I got to stop counting out Cleveland. They just, they find I'm in the same boat with you. I am in leagues where I can trade. I think I'm going to go trade for Gavin Williams coming off that weekend. Start against the Padres.

It wasn't pretty three and two thirds, give up three runs, six hits. But I think the VELO, I saw some 96s and 97s in there. I think Gavin Williams is going to be pretty important pitcher for the guardians, regardless of what happens to them in these final few weeks. I think there could be a nice run coming from him and he might be one of the few exciting pitchers you could go trade for without having to give up a lot in the return. Yeah, I like that idea. I think that's really smart.

I might go do that too. I'm going to just totally steal from you because that's what you know, you borrow from the other people in your industry and do smart things. And so that's that's one of the things I think I'm going to do. All right. Well, it'll be a race and leagues were in together. It might be a little hard for us both to come away happy in this case. But Jeff, before I let you go, let our listeners know where they can find your work.

Yeah. I talk a lot. You can catch me on SiriusXM. We are now on our evening schedule that's a kind of have the football slate so you can catch us eight to 10 Eastern time in the evening. I'm also doing three baseball podcasts a week and two football podcasts a week on RotoWire. Just wherever you get your podcast search for RotoWire, you'll find us there.

Uh, and on Twitter at Jeff underscore Ericsson is the best way to kind of, kind of track me down or just email me at Jeff at rotowire.com. Nice. It's two sports season for you right now. That's probably actually taken a sport or two away actually. But yeah, yeah. Well, fortunately. You still cover them all or at least play them all. Exactly.

And we do, we always have, if you want to check out our work, just go to roadowire.com slash podcast to have a couple of days peek behind the paywall there. Yeah, absolutely. Check it out if you haven't already. A lot of great tools there. I use them all the time, not only to run my teams, but also to help prep for shows. It's a great place to get a lot of information in one stop. On our way out the door, a reminder to get a subscription to the time, not only to run my teams, but also to help prep for shows. It's a great place to get a lot of information in one stop on our way out the door. Reminder, you get a subscription to the athletic.

They like dot com slash rates and barrels. Two dollars a month will get you in the door. As Jeff mentioned, you can find him on Twitter at Jeff underscore Erickson. Sorry to Jeff Erickson without the underscore. I felt bad for that guy for years. Oh, my gosh. Hopefully just deleted his account by now. There's reason enough to do that every day. So maybe maybe he's punted.

You could find the show at ratesates and Barrels. That's gonna do it for this episode of Rates and Barrels. We're back with you on Tuesday. Bye!