Rates & Barrels - A Marte-Luzardo deal, the Mariners are 'doing stuff', and finding fits for Max Scherzer

Episode Date: July 28, 2021

Eno and DVR discuss the first wave of Trade Deadline moves with just two days left for teams to wheel and deal. Starling Marte to the A’s, Jesus Luzardo to the Marlins, Adam Frazier to the Padres, p...otential landing spots for Max Scherzer in the NL West, and growing concerns about the start of Jarred Kelenic’s MLB career.  Follow Eno on Twitter: @enosarris Follow DVR on Twitter: @DerekVanRiper e-mail: ratesandbarrels@theathletic.com Subscribe to the Rates & Barrels YouTube channel: https://www.youtube.com/c/RatesBarrels Subscribe to The Athletic for just $3.99/mo to start: theathletic.com/ratesandbarrels Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Transcript
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Starting point is 00:00:00 Welcome to Rates and Barrels presented by Topps. Check out Topps Project 70 celebrating 70 years of Topps baseball cards. Derek Van Ryper here with Eno Saris. It is Wednesday, July 28th. I barely know what day it is. That's been the case for about a month straight now, Eno. I am at my in-law's house. The lighting in here is very different, so if you want to make jokes about my shiny forehead in the YouTube comments, please be kind, but
Starting point is 00:00:40 go ahead and make those jokes. I was just saying you look like you were in a closet. Yeah, make jokes about the setup. I'm sitting close to the camera to block all the piles of stuff behind me. There's definitely Tupperware, you can see. Tupperware? Yeah, I've got to get this shoulder up there.
Starting point is 00:00:57 We're going to go easy on you. I've read once that moving and getting married and having children are the most stressful things that can happen to a person. And in my life, I've almost always combined two of the three. So be happy. I guess I'm saying be happy that you're not also having a baby although i think changing jobs is probably on that list and you are you are moving and uh your wife is changing jobs so that's uh
Starting point is 00:01:30 that's gonna be a nice a nice one for her because you know what's gonna happen is the other part of moving is you arrive and all your crap is in boxes and maybe on day two or three, you're expected to work again. And you're like, honey, where's my arm for my mic? She's like, sorry, got to go. Yeah, that's pretty much how it works. And we're living out of the boxes right now, which will have to be sealed back up and then thrown into the car or into the U-Box. It's a whole ordeal. I would happily pay some money to not go back to my old apartment in Madison ever again, but I can't. There's still some stuff that has to be taken care of there.
Starting point is 00:02:13 So a couple more days of maintenance there. And then the long drive. Disgusting last cleanup session where you're just tired and it's 3 a.m. and all you want to do is leave. You just want to go home and sleep go to the next place and sleep and you're just scrubbing the floor I think
Starting point is 00:02:30 that you'll have a moment when you have everything in the car and you start that journey where it'll feel like you're on a rocket ship you know because you're just you're changing your life in a way you've never done before. And you're going further than a lot of people in your family.
Starting point is 00:02:49 And you're going to be doing something new. So I think that part will feel good. And then you'll land back into the crap. What box did I put it in? The rocket is scheduled to launch on Monday morning and it's supposed to land sometime early Friday afternoon. So fingers crossed that the itinerary holds. And I totally
Starting point is 00:03:12 have a co-host in mind. Totally. Totally ready to go. Everything is going to go real smooth while I'm not around for a week. Obviously I missed doing the show on Monday. They know that's a lie. They've heard me do the ad reads.
Starting point is 00:03:26 Oh, come on. You can practice. I can send them to you early if you want to get to those a little early. We do have a schedule change. We mentioned the possibility of doing a show on Saturday to recap the trade deadline. Logistically, not a good idea for like 10 different reasons. So we're going to do the usual time on Friday, talk about all the trades that happen between now and then. It seems like it's a pretty active deadline.
Starting point is 00:03:49 Yeah. So like we have a lot to talk about today. We do. And I think that even on Friday we'll have more to talk about because it sounds like Max Serzer is about to leave Washington and it sounds like Jose Barrios is maybe about to leave Minnesota. So between those two things, we'll at least have some stuff to react to at the top of the Friday show. And today, stock full of stuff to talk about and interesting stuff to talk about,
Starting point is 00:04:18 not just a little trade here or there, kind of like very interesting trades, I would say. Yeah, starting with Starling Marte to the A's. Just a little trade here or there. Kind of like very interesting trades, I would say. Yeah, starting with Starling Marte to the A's. My script said Yankees. I said that on Friday. So scrambled eggs all over my face. But a pretty good return here for the Marlins. Jesus Lizardo going back the other way.
Starting point is 00:04:42 I mean, we talked about him as a long-term buy low, a player that we really like, a keeper in dynasty leagues. I thought he was still a pretty clear part of the A's plan. I didn't really see him going in a deal for a guy, especially who's going to be a free agent in the offseason. Clearly, the A's are serious about trying to make the playoffs and trying to make a run this year. Marte is a good player, does make them a lot better, but I didn't think that was going to be the priority add for them. I thought the two middle infield spots, if they were going to go flip Jesus Lizardo, I thought it was going to be for maybe a multi-year controllable player that could play one of those two middle spots.
Starting point is 00:05:15 Well, Piscotty and Brown are the worst left field combo in baseball right now, or right field. I forget exactly where they play. I should know. I watch them all the time, but they are not very remarkable, I forget exactly where they play. I should know. I watch them all the time. But they are not very remarkable, I have to say. I enjoy talking to Steven Piscati, but watching him play has not been so great this year. And so that's the big upgrade. The reason that they got Jesus Lizardo to Miami is because Miami's going to foot the whole bill.
Starting point is 00:05:46 And I think there was a considerable amount, about $4 million on Starling Marte's deal. So the A's look like they needed someone to foot that. So I guess that takes them really out of the Trevor Story running because that's another $5 million or so, unless they wanted to keep this one neutral so that they could actually spend some money on story i mean if they did that uh story martin and chafin feels like that would be among the biggest halls in um in uh at the deadline but i think even even martin chafin puts them near the top, and they're always pretty aggressive at the deadline. For me, Lizardo is very interesting because when the A's moved him
Starting point is 00:06:32 to the bullpen, they didn't say that he was going to start anytime soon. Then they moved him back to the minors, and they were stretching him out, but the results weren't that great. And we've seen a long time now of pretty poor results for Jesus Lizardo. And I think that we're ogling his fastball velocities too much. If you look at Stuff Plus, it tells you the story of a decent curveball, a pretty good curveball, not like a world beater, a pretty good changeup, and then below average fastballs. The shapes aren't good. The sinker right now is basically exactly league average in terms of shape, and that's terrible. That's what everyone practices for. That's what everyone's
Starting point is 00:07:17 ready for. That's what every hitter, that's the average, right? Like there's just no deviation from average there. That's what everyone's sort of eyes light up when they see a sinker. And what sucks about that is that, so he's tried to, you know, improve his foreseam and he has improved his foreseam this year. It's still below average because he's got a bit of a sinker arm slot. So I don't actually know what to tell him to do, except for maybe not throw the fastballs very much. And then you put a lot of pressure on his breaking ball command, which is not amazing, honestly. It's a league average command plus across the board,
Starting point is 00:07:52 but it's below average command on the breaking ball. He leaves it up. So I think the solution might be to be a reliever and gas his way through all these problems. If he throws 97-98, I think eventually he can find and focuses on one of his secondaries. I think eventually he can find and focuses on one of his secondaries. I think eventually he could find success as a closer. I'm not saying it's a definite thing. He could be a back-end starter.
Starting point is 00:08:13 But there's a lot of work to do. The A's don't seem very amazing at doing it. That's what I wanted to get to, is that the Marlins have a much better recent track record of developing pitching. So I think if you look at Lizardo now, and thank you to the baseball gods for not letting him go to Colorado in a story deal, because that would have just been the end for Jesus Lizardo. If you look at this from just a pure paths to remaining a starter perspective,
Starting point is 00:08:41 there are other places he could have went that we'd be excited about, right? If the Astros, the Dodgers, or the Brewers, any of those teams ended up with Luzardo, we'd be optimistic there. But I think Miami's definitely on the kind of knows what they're doing, developing pitching side, at least in the kind of knows what to do. They might be even good at it. So I think the short relief thing is still, to me, a little bit of a downside scenario. That's a good scenario to have a high leverage reliever that throws 97 from the left side,
Starting point is 00:09:08 shortens up the arsenal, and is wiped out. For a bunch of years, too. Yeah, for two months of Starling Marte, who you can sign back in a couple of months if you really like him as part of your organization. And you've already offered a deal, too, and he said no. Yeah, so I think I'm more, I'm actually more inclined now than I was a week ago to trade for Lizardo just because I think the probability of him figuring it out as a starter
Starting point is 00:09:28 has slightly increased with the change in organization. You're talking fantasy now. Yeah, just purely from a fantasy perspective. And from a long-term value perspective, they've got plenty of other starters. If it doesn't work out, fine, they'll shuffle somebody else in and let him be a reliever. At least the park will help them. They seem very good at developing change-ups, so maybe they can help his change-up,
Starting point is 00:09:49 which has kind of slid to about league average. But the one thing that I worry about is just the fastball thing. I just don't see a way out. With Sandy, they were like, here, try to throw the foreseam more often. It didn't work. And then they were like, you know what? Your two better just throw it and it worked out Pablo Lopez I wouldn't say that his fastballs are his best aspect so maybe they could actually take a sort of Pablo Lopez um method to
Starting point is 00:10:17 to success which is just throw the fastball less I guess right and because Lizardo throws so many other secondaries that we talked about before, that opens up the door for him to keep tinkering away and maybe find something that works to get him off that fastball. It'll be weird, to say the least, to see that mix come out the way that it does. But I thought it was a nice trade for the Marlins
Starting point is 00:10:40 and certainly not a bad trade for the A's, who probably aren't done. I think Chafin, as you mentioned, the bullpen, nice upgrade. Not a guy who's going to close, right? You said you were getting questions about people or from people asking if he was going to close in that bullpen. I don't really see it working out that way. Yeah, I mean, by stuff plus, he's inferior to the other guys, Diekman and Trevino, who've been closing. And another way of just saying it is the other two guys throw harder and strike more guys out,
Starting point is 00:11:07 and that's just been traditionally a thing that's been linked to being the closer. So I think he's just, I think he allows them to sometimes use Diekman as the closer of Trevino, because Trevino sometimes gets hit. He's a righty. If there's an all-lefty lineup,
Starting point is 00:11:24 I think, you know, Dieakman is the right choice. So I think he allows them to kind of platoon a little more closer, which is bad news, I guess, for owners of all three players in fantasy. But good news for Bob Melvin to just give him more options. Absolutely. AL West has been very active so far. The Mariners are doing stuff. I like the quotations.
Starting point is 00:11:48 That's what they're doing. They're doing stuff. Quote, unquote, doing stuff. We don't know the exact direction, but Jerry DePoto is doing Jerry DePoto things. Kendall Graveman, Rafael Montero, who was recently DFA'd, gone. They are now in Houston. Abraham Toro and Joe Smith come back to Seattle in that trade.
Starting point is 00:12:07 And based on some of the tweets I've seen from Corey Brock earlier in the day on Wednesday, again, looking up if you're watching on YouTube because I can't remember what day it is, Abraham Toro probably not getting flipped in a subsequent deal. Probably a guy that will get an opportunity to play regularly in Seattle. And he is a former prospect of the week on this show. So I think you and I are both probably pretty excited about the possibility of Toro getting a 50-game stretch where he can be an everyday guy with the Mariners. Yeah, that is the one thing that's kind of missing.
Starting point is 00:12:38 He's kind of gotten opportunities in short stints in Houston because what I would say is the reason he was on our radar was that he kind of combined statistics that we enjoy, which is just like a good strikeout rate, a really good walk rate, an above average ISO or isolated slugging percentage, and then a good batted ball distribution, which is close to sort of one-to-one ground ball to fly ball.
Starting point is 00:13:05 Just seemed like a really solid all-around player who stole some bases, not expecting him to steal a lot in the major leagues, but that just means he's not super slow, and he played a position, so he's not one of these lumbering first basemen. I guess the caveat is he has a 4.7% bail rate with 200 batted ball events so far in the major leagues, which would suggest the power is not there. 30% hard hit rate. But I would say that he's had 60 batted ball events in 2019, 64 in 2020, 90 in 2021. It's not the same as saying he got 200 batted balls
Starting point is 00:13:45 in the same season in a row you know what I mean? That's just obviously more information than 200 batted balls over different broken up stints over three years it's I don't think we've gotten the full information
Starting point is 00:14:01 on how well he can hit but it is it is what some members of the scouting community are pushing back on. But, you know, Kevin Goldstein, who worked with Houston, said that they got calls on every home tour all the time because of, you know, the kind of stuff that we saw. So, in either case, this one is, I think, super complicated. Because it is sad
Starting point is 00:14:29 that they just had a huge win against the Astros. The huge walk-off grand slam, Dylan Moore, just pandemonium. It's one of the better calls I've heard. Just a really lovely game against the astros with fans in the seats they're in the wild card hunt you know they the young guys are here to some extent gilbert's pitching well let's go you know like lfg you know kind of season and then they go and trade but obviously a month of kendall graven is not worth the same at a shot as a shot at a major league regular for five six years it's just
Starting point is 00:15:16 not you do that trade intellectually emotionally you saw all these quotes coming out of the players. I mean, you saw that, right? The Ryan Divish quotes about the... Oh, you didn't see that? Yeah, you're moving. The players were emphatic and were tearing the front office apart, just saying they were tired of this S and, know this is BS and all this stuff so I could believe that maybe Kendall Graveman was a loved player that clubhouse he had been bad with the Mariners and had was having one of his
Starting point is 00:15:55 best seasons so that's like something you root for as a teammate he was had been the closer and stuff at the same time since the sticky ban was put in place kendall graven is number six in lost stuff plus when you just compare post sticky band to before um i think he was in the process of losing the closing job to pa Seawald, who has really good stuff, Les Numbers. You looked it up. What was it? 125.4, I think. That was excellent. Really good. I think he dropped his arm slot a little bit
Starting point is 00:16:33 and is kind of doing this low to high thing where he's got a lower arm slot, but pitching high in the zone. So I think he's just full of deception. Decent Velo was kind of taking that job anyway.
Starting point is 00:16:50 So I think that's super complicated on so many levels. I agree. I'm not one of these stat guys that says the emotions don't matter. I agree that this is kind of kneecapping them. At the same time, they went out and got Tyler Anderson the next day. I mean, he was saying we're doing stuff as part of a plan.
Starting point is 00:17:08 You know what I would just say is there's a lack of communication. If your players are going to go out and blast you for this, if you think that might happen, I know that there's like the Billy Bean type of executive is like, I make the moves and I don't want to be down there and I don't want to be in front of the players and I don't want to take the heat. I think in this case, you take the heat and you go down to the clubhouse and you give Graveman a hug and you say whatever it is, maybe it's a handshake, but whatever you say, maybe you're not that kind of guy. Maybe you're not a hugs guy. But you say thank you for everything. And you say, there's just a lot going on in this trade deadline. We're buying and selling.
Starting point is 00:17:51 Try to give them a hint that this is not the last move. We're not only selling. And that he just got caught in the sort of maelstrom of baseball. And they really appreciate everything he's done and just kind of do something nice to kind of head off these emotions do something that's the one thing that i think the the the rays do better than a lot of these analytics forward clubs the the players feel loved even as they know intellectually they're being used i mean we had maybe when we had jake odorizzi on he was like nothing but love forays, but they also use the best of everyone's career and then move them along. You know, so, but they do a better job of that, like nothing but love part, you know. quotation, I think that Justin Dunn could be like a really good reliever for the short run and still have still be stretched out enough to maybe contribute as a starter next year. So maybe
Starting point is 00:18:55 that was their idea of like, we'll just replace Graveman with Dunn, get Tyler Anderson in here for not much prospect capital. And we end up with we end up with Toro and Dunn and Dunn might be better than Graveman post Sticky Stuff ban so I don't know man I think that it's easy to sort of jump to
Starting point is 00:19:18 the black and white and be like Mariner's bad Analytics bad, Trade bad I think this is kind of a really complicated one. Maybe made worse by some communicative tendencies by Jerry DePoto. Right. Maybe. I mean, players could also be mad even if they got the information.
Starting point is 00:19:38 Your friend gets traded, you're not happy about it. But I think the type of players they got back, Toro and Joe Smith, those are guys that are on the big league roster it wasn't rookie ball guys it wasn't waving the white flag and then that follow-up trade for anderson that should have been the other signal like no we're still hanging around here we believe we can we can do something we're not just punting on this season yeah carter bins and joaquin tahata went toada went to Pittsburgh as part of that Tyler Anderson deal. I mean, you don't trade for a guy on an expiring contract when you can't offer a qualifying offer to a player you traded for,
Starting point is 00:20:11 which I don't think Anderson's quite at that level anyway. You don't make a move like that if you don't think there's something in it for this season. There's seven back of Houston in the AL West as we begin the recording on Wednesday. Five and a half percent chance of making the playoffs. Just a tick behind Anaheim. Even the 5.5% chance of making the playoffs is a one-game playoff.
Starting point is 00:20:29 Like, come on. You could get a major league regular for a one-game playoff. Like, stay in it. Yeah, improve the team. But, like, are we sure that Tyler Emerson and Abraham Toro are going to be worse even this year? The team is going to be worse with Tyler Anderson and Abraham Toro this year than they would have been with Kendall Graveman. They're better, probably.
Starting point is 00:20:56 Look what they upgraded on the infield. They were using two catchers in the lineup. They had Cal Raleigh and Luis Terenz in the lineup together. Oh, yeah. Terenz was DHing, dude. Jake Bowers is their first baseman. Yeah. So they're a better team after these moves than they were before them. Here's something I wanted to see.
Starting point is 00:21:15 Check this out. Andres Munoz threw off a mound Saturday. One more piece may be coming back. I mean, that would be an excellent sort of September surprise, I think, for the Mariners to be like, I mean, you guys were whining about Colonel Graveman. We got a 100-mile-an-hour closer type coming up. I don't know exactly when he had his surgery,
Starting point is 00:21:39 but he missed all of last season. So he could be coming back. Well, i actually like what the mariners have done so far and i'm convinced that in the 48 or so hours they have left to make deals that they will there's one more they'll make more yeah i don't know it is jerry they can make an eight player trade and it wouldn't surprise me and it'd be like oh yeah okay that kind of helps them now and and doesn't hurt them in the future and that that fits what they're doing because their young core is coming up they have a very good farm system they are going to keep bringing in reinforcements internally so everything they can do to keep making that team better a little bit
Starting point is 00:22:17 sooner is worthwhile like they should be a playoff contender again next year what i'm seeing signaled in these deals so far is that people don't really want to take on money. So I actually think that Craig Kimbrell might be the value of the trade deadline. So what if they end up with Craig Kimbrell? Because they're like, hey, we can take on the money. So we can actually get Craig Kimbrell
Starting point is 00:22:44 for less than we sold Kendall Graveman. You know why the Astros couldn't get Kimbrell? Because they're right up on the luxury tax. And the luxury tax is a cap for a lot of teams. So the Yankees sold players for money. They sold Justin Wilson and Luis Cesar. It's a tiny little deal. I don't even know if it's on the rundown. I don't think it is. But they sold Justin Wilson and Luis Cesar. And the reason
Starting point is 00:23:11 that they paired those is that Justin Wilson had a couple million left on his contract. I don't even think it's a full million. They wanted to get rid of a million dollars. So that tells me something about how little they want to go over the luxury tax. That tells me a little bit something about how the Astros didn't want to go over the luxury tax. And I don't think the Mariners are anywhere close. So if they could take out money, that's one thing I said in my article about 11 trades that need to happen, was that the Giants' best asset right now is not necessarily prospects, because I don't think that their prospects are that great behind the ones
Starting point is 00:23:50 they don't want to trade. I think they don't want to trade Luis Matos. They don't want to trade Elliott Ramos. There's some idea that maybe they could trade Joey Bart. He's been floated, but I think they don't want to trade Joey Bart either. But if it's Craig Kimbrell and they say, hey, give us the $22 million left on his contract, maybe they don't have to do all that much. Yeah. Oh, here's Mauricio Dubon. See ya.
Starting point is 00:24:17 That's it. That would be kind of a fitting bookend where it's like, well, we got him for a reliever and now we're selling him for a reliever. Yep. And the Cubs get versatility, and they're like, yeah, we can play this guy at seven positions, and he doesn't cost any money. Yay. That's what makes them happy right now.
Starting point is 00:24:36 There's a meme on Twitter about how we celebrate the Rays for making 20 moves that make them slightly worse and slightly cheaper. For what it's worth, I think the Rays' next move, if there is one, will be like this Marte one, where they make a surprising move for a rental and don't touch their top prospects, but somehow get a Chris Bryant-esque rental into Tampa. Yeah, I think it's going to be a big move for the Rays, and it's coming. It has to come soon. 4 o'clock Eastern on Friday, of course, is the deadline. We've got a few more moves to get to here in just a moment. We're going to pay a bill or two first. All right, you know, we've got a few more deals to get to and a few other possible deals
Starting point is 00:25:28 looming. I'm hoping, I'm really hoping we get breaking news while we're recording. That's my absolute favorite. That's why I'm looking down. Sorry, YouTubers. I'm just refreshing MLB Trade Rumors real quick just in case something's happening because I do love making that noise. Yes, it is uh it's a good noise probably the best noise we actually make on the pod a sound effect we have on the internal soundboard uh i just saw a note from jake caplan astro's prospect pedro leone fractured his left pinky while sliding at triple a on monday so he's expected to be out for six weeks that probably ends his season could be a fall league guy though i wouldn't be
Starting point is 00:26:05 surprised at all with the lost time if they give him a look out there and see how he holds himself against some of the best prospects around but let's get to some more trades adam frazier is a padre and i think i want him to be on the white socks for the last three months so this is just like the starling marte one where it's like just when you think there's an obvious fit for a player, the less obvious team swoops in. This seems like it's very bad for Drix and Profar, but I've also seen rumors that Eric Hosmer could be on the move.
Starting point is 00:26:34 He's at least losing playing time. Eric Hosmer. And that's how it's playing out. I think last night in the lineup, Adam Frazier led off and played second and Jake Cronenworth played first base. And I've seen, I'm pretty sure, Jake Cronenworth steal first base against righties.
Starting point is 00:26:52 There might have been a righty playing last night. I should have that box score up if I'm going to say something like that. You just irresponsible, getting it wrong. There was a lefty, you idiot. No, let's see. Let's see who was pitching last night. It was a lefty, you idiot. No, let's see. Let's see who was pitching last night. It was a righty. It was the A's.
Starting point is 00:27:09 It was Caprellian. Yeah. And look at this. The Padres lineup. Oh, Hosmer was in it first. Okay, so it was maybe the night before. But Frazier was playing left, so that was bad for Profar. But I think I swear I've seen Hosmer sit against a righty, but he's definitely
Starting point is 00:27:26 sitting against all lefties now. And Cronenworth, who's a lefty, is just taking those at-bats anyway. But, yeah, Profar's not an amazing batter either. I think I was talking to somebody around the Padres, and they were saying his best skill
Starting point is 00:27:41 is fouling balls off. Which, you know, it'sling balls off, which it's, it's a thing. Um, but, uh, he's, you know,
Starting point is 00:27:49 they're, they're fine. Uh, Hosmer is actually below replacement. If you combine all four of the last years and the only time that he was actually above replacement in the last four years was that, you know, shortened 2020 season when we all said,
Starting point is 00:28:04 Oh my God, look at his launch angle. And maybe he just didn't have time to regress that year. So I don't know. The deals that I keep hearing about getting Hosmer out of there are like attaching Robert Hassel III
Starting point is 00:28:19 to get Hosmer out of there. And I just, it might make some sense numbers analytics-wise in terms of surplus value and getting that money out and stuff. I don't do it, man. I don't do it, man. If he's replacement level
Starting point is 00:28:40 and you truly think he's replacement level, just cut him. Keep hassle. Cut Hosmer. Pay him. Yeah. Just pay, just cut him. Keep Hassel. Cut Hosmer. Pay him. Yeah. Just pay him and cut him. Own the mistake. It's not like he's going to end up... I can't imagine he ends up in LA
Starting point is 00:28:54 or SF. That is the nightmare scenario, though. Okay. Maybe he's a replacement level guy. Maybe he's a tick better than that. You at least take the flyer if you're a lot of teams out there. In a more hitter-friendly environment, maybe he gets a little more
Starting point is 00:29:11 mileage out of the power. On the league minimum, he would get some action, I think. For sure. Yeah, and maybe there's enough interest where you can't just give him the league minimum. You've got to pay him a little more. Padres are on the hook for this for a while, though. That deal, Eric Hosmer's contract runs through 2025. I can't recall a time where with four full years remaining on a deal,
Starting point is 00:29:35 a player was let go. I think it is the old package a really good prospect with a player and hope to get out of the contract that way. Who's doing that? What teams? Do the Pirates do it? I literally had an executive tell me it is practically impossible to move money.
Starting point is 00:29:54 And think about what we just talked about. Jesus Lizardo is what it took to get $4 million? Yeah. I mean, I didn't see that going down the way it did so i don't know full what's the full uh rate on the padres it's 18 million aav so it's about 72 million dollars plus the end of this season it's not happening man nobody's taking 72 million on the only teams that have that the wherewithal to do that, okay, I guess you could argue
Starting point is 00:30:28 that the Pirates and maybe the Cubs, but what are they going to do? They're going to tell Rizzo to get lost and play Eric Hosmer because they got Robert Hassel for him? Trade Rizzo and then go ahead and make
Starting point is 00:30:44 this move. We were talking about the Giants have the wherewithal. So there could be some sort of like three-team type deal where the Giants absorb the money
Starting point is 00:30:59 and get a player and then the prospect goes to the place. So we were talking about being bags with Josh Donaldson, right? So let's say Josh Donaldson and Jose Barrios go to the Giants, right? Reasonable. But Farhan remembers Donaldson's effect on the clubhouse. Right now the clubhouse in San Francisco seems super tight. I mean, Belt was just talking about it.
Starting point is 00:31:26 And it does seem actually pretty tight. It's hard to tell. We're not in the clubhouse. But when people just sort of bring it up out of nowhere, it seems it's one of those things. I don't know. I get the sense. Maybe you just don't want that. And also, you think Longoria is really close.
Starting point is 00:31:43 And maybe you think Longoria is really close and maybe you prefer Longoria. Anyway, you then in a separate deal send Donaldson somewhere and absorb the money. So by taking Donaldson along with Berrios, you give a lesser prospect to the twins
Starting point is 00:32:02 because you're taking the money. And then you just trade Donaldson along to somebody where you absorb the money and they give you a prospect back. You could actually end up getting a prospect especially if you've eaten enough money
Starting point is 00:32:17 that's similar to the prospect you gave up. Or at least replaces half the value of the prospect you gave up. Then you you know, or at least replaces half the value of the prospect you gave up. So then you're like, wow, we just paid for burials. Well, I think that's a little bit of what was happening with the raise. Like you were just mentioning this a little earlier. The meme is always just about us praising the raise because they're so smart and they're
Starting point is 00:32:38 so cheap. They do all these things. What they did with Rich Hill, yes, that is being cheap. They have money. They could have paid Rich Hill and kept Rich Hill. They chose not to. Clearly, they're kind of playing both sides. And I think there's a lesson here to be learned in fantasy management too.
Starting point is 00:32:55 We see this in real baseball with these newer types of trades like the one you just described. That absolutely makes some sense. It takes extra work to get it done. But it's the best possible path forward. If it's the only way you can get Barrios, and you want Barrios this year and next, and you think he's the most impactful pitcher that you can trade for, you do it because you can afford the money, and you can get a player you'd like back from a different club. It just takes more effort. I had a situation earlier this year. There's a team in the mix in a keeper league I'm in, competing with me to win this year.
Starting point is 00:33:25 I traded Francisco Lindor to someone else to free up cap space to go get pitching. I needed starting pitching. I was up against the cap. I had plenty of bats. It took two moves.
Starting point is 00:33:36 I traded Lindor for Larnak who was really cheap and then went out and made a separate deal. I didn't flip Larnak. I could have, but I traded someone else to go get pitching.
Starting point is 00:33:44 Then it was like, all right, I made this deal work. I made another team a little better, but I actually made my team better too. That was part of the cost of actually creating space to get the move done that I had to do. I realized that a team's salary cap, air quotes for the YouTube people out there. I know. People are yelling that it's not a cap, but it's not a cap. It's actually a cap. They operate under a budget, right? Yes, they're given a budget. Okay, it's a budget.
Starting point is 00:34:10 If you have a fixed budget, if your owner says you can spend this much, you can't go above this number, if you're the GM, you're a problem solver. You have to solve it by making sure you have enough room to go get the players you want to actually go win a championship. Sometimes it takes you five moves to acquire the three players you want.
Starting point is 00:34:24 I think that's what we're seeing with the raise. And it is amazing. moves to acquire the three players you want. I think that's what we're seeing with the Rays. And it is amazing. When we were talking on Friday, you said, I could see the Mets getting a four or five inning lefty. And we were looking at the Rays depth chart. And I think all three of us were like, well, there's just no way the Rays are trading innings away right now because of the strain upon their young players. 10 minutes after we're done recording, Rich Hill to the Mets. But I get it because I think it's just part of a bigger plan. And it's not just the Rays are smarter than everybody else. They're doing X, Y, and Z because they're ahead of the curve.
Starting point is 00:34:51 It's just the way they choose to run that team, it was something they had to do in order to provide the balance on the budget to go get the next players that they needed to make that roster as good as it can be. And here's an interesting subplot that's developing. Rich Hill, like Kendall Graveman was one of the biggest stuff plus losers since the sticky stuff fan. And just watching him recently, because I,
Starting point is 00:35:21 he was like a streamer that I was like, Ooh, look what I found and decided to keep on my roster in a couple places. I've just been begging him to get to five innings. So he's really more on the three to four inning side. And I think the proof of the pudding is a little bit that the Mets are being rumored in on starting pitching still. But if I had to guess,
Starting point is 00:35:44 I would guess that they wouldn't actually spend a lot for more starting pitching because they're just hoping that Rich Hill can be that band-aid until Carlos Carrasco starts Friday. Jake DeGrom, it doesn't seem like a long-term thing. And Noah Syndergaard is throwing again. So I think that they're just hoping for those kind of replacements rather than spending more prospect capital on pitching. So, yeah, money is a theme.
Starting point is 00:36:11 Spin rate is a theme. And we'll have to see how that impacts players like Chris Bryant, who has a fair amount of money left on his contract in this season. Anthony Rizzo's not super cheap. Craig Kimbrell is on the block. So maybe by doing some of that Rich Hill action, the Rays are able to get in on one of those bigger-name guys. Right.
Starting point is 00:36:40 I mean, a possible Max Scherzer trade. The Rays could be right there, and it'd be fun. One thing I just don't understand. The estimated payroll for the Padres in San Diego is $174,000. And that includes luxury tax payroll. Oh, there it is. Now I'm getting it. That does not include benefits. Down at the bottom, it it is. Now I'm getting it. It does not include benefits.
Starting point is 00:37:07 Down at the bottom, it includes benefits. And right now, their estimated luxury tax payroll is $203 million. Now it all makes sense. So $203 million gives you $7 million. Max Scherzer costs $10 million. If you want Max Scherzer, then you need to sell Hosmer. Right.
Starting point is 00:37:31 And then to get rid of the Hosmer contract, you got to give up Hassel. But Hassel alone for Scherzer wouldn't work because you wouldn't give up Hassel for two months of Scherzer. Hence the multiple moves just to take that one big step forward. That's why I kind of think it's Berrios to the Padres. He costs less.
Starting point is 00:37:50 And you might be able to do some stuff with, let's see how much these guys cost. Could you give them a major leaguer that costs them money, Denilson Lemaitre, $4 million, which only means that he's only worth, he only gives you $4.2 million, so he only gives you a million plus back. But that might be all it takes, right?
Starting point is 00:38:21 And there's also Weathers and Paddock, but they are still arbitration, so that's not saving a lot of money. But Weathers and Paddock are other assets that people aren't talking a lot about that could net them something. Because everyone's talking about Hassel, Camposano,
Starting point is 00:38:40 and Abrams. I think Abrams is untouchable, Camposano's close, and Hassel would like to be untouchable, but they'd also like to get Berrios and Gallams. I think Abrams is untouchable. Camposano is close. And Hassel would like to be untouchable, but they'd also like to get Berrios and Gallo. So I think, if I guess, they sell like LeMet,
Starting point is 00:38:57 maybe one of Weathers and Paddock, and Hassel in these different deals, and they get Berrios and Gallup. That's my guess. Have you seen Mackenzie Gore's name come up in any trade rumors at all? He used to be the untradeable.
Starting point is 00:39:13 I mean, I put him in. Yeah, you could throw Gore in that group. He should be part of that. I think it's a buy low for everybody at this point. He's not a foundational asset in a trade. Yeah, it's a bad time to trade him, but if you stripped away the financial considerations we were talking about,
Starting point is 00:39:32 is he the kind of guy that gets moved for a top-end rental? Is he like a Jesus Lizardo in terms of hey, the Padres are getting Joey Gallo. Gallo's not even a rental. You'd have an extra year of Gallo, but is Gore plus something what you see in a deal like that? That's wild to think that his stock has fallen that much.
Starting point is 00:39:50 Not that it shouldn't. I mean, he's not even pitching in games right now, which is just weird. He hasn't pitched in a game since June 18th. He's working on his delivery in Arizona at the Spring facility. Gore? Yeah. Oh, that's bizarre. I mean, that's how messed up his delivery is right now. It's not an
Starting point is 00:40:07 innings thing. He's thrown 20 innings this year. And I know you can count innings at the alternate site, right? Those are still workload innings, even if they're not as high stress as a game situation. So it's not like his actual workload for the year is only 20 innings, but it's not
Starting point is 00:40:23 a concern about game innings that's holding him back. Yeah. The other thing I could say is Will Myers' money is easier to move. Yeah. It's only $22.5 million next year, but this year, critically, might be $7 or $8 million. So to another team, it's $30 million on a player that's been a little bit more useful. So maybe that's the ticket, is that Myers leaves in one of these deals.
Starting point is 00:40:55 And I think that a team like the Twins could plug in Myers somewhere. Twins have pretty good outfielders in first baseman. But there could be a team that would see some value in Myers and getting a prospect along with him, even if it's not hassle. So maybe you save the money on Myers with Gore, and then by saving that money, you can take on more money in the Gallo and Barrios deals, and you don't have to pay those down,
Starting point is 00:41:26 and then maybe you can get Barrios for Paddock and a lesser prospect and Gallo for Hassel. I do like the idea of Paddock in Minnesota to be a good test to how good is their pitching development at this point. Where do you think Scherzer ends up? Because all the rumors are pointing him to one of those three NL West teams. I think the money makes it really complicated for the Padres in particular. So that seems like, to me, the least likely of the three. How do you see it, Dodgers versus Giants as the most likely suitor in the division to land him? The Dodgers, I think, have just blown through
Starting point is 00:42:01 it. They're at 260 on luxury tax, so I don't think they care. They have a fairly large amount of money tied up in a player that may be suspended the rest of the year, and that might save them money or something. But it doesn't matter, because they're way over the luxury tax
Starting point is 00:42:20 and they're either going to get the player or they're not. It's all about the prospect. I think they don't want to give up a very good prospect. They're haggling over prospects. I guess the same is true for San Francisco because San Francisco can take on the full money.
Starting point is 00:42:37 They have $60 million under the cap. Although now I realize I've been looking at the wrong numbers. Let me get that right. They are with the luxury tax. Let me get that right. They are, with the luxury tax, yeah. Yeah, there's $60 million under the cap. I guess maybe Max Scherzer to the Giants.
Starting point is 00:42:55 I would like to see Scherzer and Chris Bryant both end up in San Francisco. And I think they can pull it off. Yeah, Kimbrel too. I kind of see a little bit of a need there in San Francisco at the back end of the bullpen. I've been watching it a lot recently, and Rodgers is good, but I'd love to use Rodgers in the sixth and seventh
Starting point is 00:43:15 just because he allows contact. And so I just don't want, with the game online, two squibbers. And then Jake McGee throws only fastballs. When I'm watching him, I'm always like, you know what's coming. line, two squibbers. And then Jake McGee throws only fastballs. When I'm watching him, I'm always like, you know what's coming. He changes locations and a little bit of movement, but still, it's one speed.
Starting point is 00:43:36 I feel like there's a limited amount of time that can work. I think you're absolutely right. Some of the other names that were dealt, I think the most interesting prospect that was traded in some of the shuffling we talked about earlier,
Starting point is 00:43:51 Tucapita Marcano was among the players the Padres sent to the Pirates in the Adam Frazier deal. Really young for the level. He spent most of this year at AAA, but he's been an up and down guy for them. The numbers of AAA are good. 272, 367, 444 for the slug. That matches a career high for him. He's walked more than he's been an up-and-down guy for them. The numbers of AAA are good. 272, 367, 444 for the slug.
Starting point is 00:44:05 That matches a career high for him. He's walked more than he's struck out, and he's done a good job of hitting the ball in the air a little bit more often this season than he has in the past. Not at the big league level, but at AAA compared to what he was doing in the lower levels of the minors. I think he could end up being among the best prospects that are actually traded at this deadline,
Starting point is 00:44:24 seeing how a lot of other deals are coming together and thinking more about players who maybe used to be prospects, but are either no longer eligible or have had injuries or other things that have pulled them off of those lists in recent years. I think that group of players is much more likely to be on the move than other current top 100 guys. Yeah, I guess the projections don't believe in the power, and this is a little bit of a recent power surge, a recent change in batted ball mix. So, you know, without that 2020 data, you just don't know, has he been doing this for a year and a half,
Starting point is 00:45:00 or has he been doing it for 200 plate appearances, you know? And I guess some scouting can fill in the gaps there. But I love guys that make that much contact. And it seems like the Pirates do. They seem to be really targeting that type of player. That's something I've seen from the Rays in the past. They just did a similar type deal where they gave up Cronenworth. It wasn't great. But they got Xavier Edwards, who might profile similarly.
Starting point is 00:45:29 Am I wrong? No, I think that's a pretty similar build for sure. And I think with Marcano, I think because he's so young for the level, I'm more optimistic about the power long term. Only 35 batted balls so far and 50 plate appearances. No barrels yet. So average exit velocity, max exit velocity. They're low.
Starting point is 00:45:47 But for his age and given the up and down nature of those plate appearances, I do think the way players are getting those early plate appearances matter. Oh, for sure. Because worst case scenario, you just got younger Adam Frazier, a guy that probably runs better because of age too. And best case scenario, you actually get a guy who's better. The nice thing in Pittsburgh also is that
Starting point is 00:46:10 you clear up playing time for an interesting young player who I think will get most of the playing time in front of Tupacato? Tukapita. Tukapita? Marcano.
Starting point is 00:46:25 He will get more playing time in front of Marcano is Rodolfo Castro, who also had a major change recently in terms of contact rate, or at least strikeout rate, but is projected to strike out too much
Starting point is 00:46:41 and walk too little and hit for some power. He really announced himself with three homers in his first 19 plate appearances. And I'm intrigued by three barrels that quickly. The max TV is also not great, but the launch angle, he doesn't beat it into the ground like Marcano did in his first shot at the big leagues. He doesn't beat it into the ground like Marcano did in his first shot at the big leagues. So I am watching Castro pretty closely because there is an opportunity here for him to be a 250 hitter with 20 homer power and five steals or so.
Starting point is 00:47:19 That's a decent little player. And just having seen him up close, he's yoked. He is jacked. He is like a little jacked dude. Is it the fire hydrant? It's pretty close to fire hydrant. I was like, oh, I like this. This is fire hydrant.
Starting point is 00:47:41 I mean, the Pirates are still pretty early in their process, relatively speaking. They're a few years away from being good. But I do like some of the things they're doing on the edges of this roster castro certainly an interesting player i would assume that gregory polanco is playing for a contender even if the pirates are footing most the bill and he's just a bench guy for his new team that makes a lot of sense the key is whether or not they move brian reynolds because reynolds i think would actually get them back quite a bit i think brian Hayes is probably on the next good Pirates team. Brian Reynolds
Starting point is 00:48:08 is a little more borderline but showing us that what he did back in 2019 was real and then some. I think they'll hold him. I think they'll hold him. I think that if you can't if you think that your rebuild is going to take more than four years, man.
Starting point is 00:48:24 It's too long. It's a long time to be telling the owner give us another year. if you think that your rebuild is going to take more than four years, man, then you guys, that's a long time to be telling the owner, Oh, give us another year. So yeah, I think with, and then like, I can,
Starting point is 00:48:33 I can sort of squint and be like, Ooh, let's say Castro hits his like upper level outcomes, right? Castro, Hayes, Reynolds, two,
Starting point is 00:48:43 three, four. Yeah. It's not bad. You know? And then you start moving your pitchers a little bit more aggressively because you've got a two, three, four, and you kind of push them to the major leagues. So I don't think...
Starting point is 00:48:57 People act like the Pirates have been dumb forever. Do they not remember that the Pirates were a really, really good team for two to three years? People wrote books about how good they were. They were a good team at just the slightly wrong time. They could have done more damage in the postseason in most other years, especially coming out of the NL Central. But yeah, it overlapped the Cubs and the Cardinals and the Brewers all being pretty good at the same time. Obviously, the Cubs got the World Series a few years ago too,
Starting point is 00:49:26 but some unfortunate timing for an organization that's been mostly bad for the last 30 years. They did have a nice three- to four-year window where they had the pieces in place to be a good team. They've been skinflint the whole time, but there have been other teams that have been skinflint that have done well. So I think the Pirates could turn it around. Absolutely.
Starting point is 00:49:44 Any other trade rumors you've been hearing that you think are particularly interesting? Obviously, we'll get to more of these on Friday too, but is there anything else that you've heard recently where you're like, yeah, that makes sense. I actually want to see that happen. No. I just wonder about the Cubs four.
Starting point is 00:50:04 I think the Cubs 4 are super interesting. Baez, Bryant, Rizzo, and Kimbrell. It's interesting because I think everybody kind of wants Kimbrell, but they don't want the $22 million. So that changes his value and says maybe it's not that much. Rizzo, not in the middle of a great campaign. Also trying to negotiate an extension with the Cubs. Seems like a face of the franchise type guy. Seems like you could maybe get to some agreement where it's like six for a hundred and something and might not even
Starting point is 00:50:37 be that bad of a deal because he's a really disciplined hitter that could be sort of Vottoian for your franchise in terms of, you know, maybe it's not amazing at the end of the deal, but like finds ways to contribute, like leads the league and hit by pitches and like gets on pace. You know what I mean? Like Rizzo is not a super lumbering first baseman. He's like stolen bases and he's still pretty athletic. And that I just gives him gives me some reason to believe that you could bet on him, not on like a two or $300 million level, but, uh, on that sort of lesser level. Uh, plus, um, it's the Cubs, man, you got some money. You can reward some guys for giving you your first title in like a hundred years you know like if there's anybody
Starting point is 00:51:26 reward it might be him Baez uh is super important but I just I just think he's the a terrible collection of skills to bet on long term in terms of he reaches outside the zone a lot and makes not much contact inside the zone I just think that's going to age really badly. In terms of short-term pick-me-up, I could see it, but I think Story is a superior rental. Bryant might get them the most back because he doesn't cost that much money and he's versatile. So like being able to, like the Giants could like love to get Bryant. And like, well, third base until long goes back. Maybe center later.
Starting point is 00:52:10 We're a versatile team. We love your versatility. It's going to play. So I think actually, to answer your question, Bryant. Bryant is the one that's very interesting to me. People talk about his exit below. His exit below has never been good, but his barrel rate's always been good,
Starting point is 00:52:27 and his barrel rate is good as again. He's super versatile. He's a good addition. It'll probably be a rental because he started talking about how he would sign with the Cubs again. But it's okay. I mean, that's what you're getting.
Starting point is 00:52:39 So, Bryant is super... I think all four of them are interesting for their own ways. And I could see one leaving. If you had to bet on one leaving, who's the one that leaves? Bryant. Right. Okay, if it's two.
Starting point is 00:52:57 Bryant and Kimbrel. And if anybody signs long? I think Rizzo actually is the longtime signer. For the reasons you mentioned, I think he's the kind of guy that probably won't burn you, probably won't turn into a Hosmer-type contract. That's the fear, of course. But he's had better seasons than Hosmer ever did before he signed. Much better peak, much more consistency from him.
Starting point is 00:53:17 Weird that the power's been down since the beginning of last season. I don't know if people can hear Hazel, Golden Doodle vigorously disagreeing in the background. The Cubs should keep them all and run the franchise into the ground. Hazel, of course, wears a Brewer's collar every single day. Let's get to a couple mailbag questions before we go. This one comes
Starting point is 00:53:40 in from Eric. He writes, I was curious about short sample signature significance. We tend to recognize extreme production over a short sample as noteworthy. For instance, Randy Rosarena had an incredible 100 at-bat stretch last year, and based on that, he was universally expected to be at the very least a very good
Starting point is 00:53:56 major league hitter. Let's say a nondescript pitcher throws six dominant starts in September, he will head into the following season with fairly lofty expectations because of those six starts. My question is, should signature significance in a short sample go the other way? And I'm referring specifically to Jared Kelnick, who hasn't just struggled, but he's been non-competitive. By the time I'm writing this, he's had 111 plate appearances with a 185 slugging and a six WRC plus. He's been as bad as a Rosarena was good. We know high-profile prospects
Starting point is 00:54:26 tend to struggle at first. Trout always comes to mind, but I can't recall any struggling this badly. I mean, Kelnick is literally not doing much better than I would. With all of that, should we have any concern about his long-term outlook? First off, thanks for the email,
Starting point is 00:54:42 Eric. Secondly, I'd love to bet the under on a 6 WRC plus from any of our listeners. With all due respect to all of you, even a 6 WRC plus in the big leagues, it's not happening for 99.99% of us. But what do you make of this when you see extreme struggles in a sample like this? I do think the core of Eric's email is something I've found to be true. The recency bias tends to skew more heavily in favor of a player who's done well in a small sample compared to skewing negatively for a player who's struggled in an equally small sample. yeah i was uh hurriedly looking for the uh i was hurriedly looking for the tweet uh but i found i couldn't find it but there was a tweet that was like you know here are the worst starts to a career
Starting point is 00:55:39 through i guess it's like 180 players or 150 player appearances. Yeah. Counting just at 135. Um, and it was like Andy Marte, Brandon Wood. Um, yeah, it was a bad list. The best player on the list was Josh Donaldson, um, who had a, a really poor start, but also that would be disastrous for the Mariners too because that would mean, if you followed the Josh Donaldson path, it would mean he's better for another team five years from now basically. I mean, Donaldson's a late peaker that got
Starting point is 00:56:20 traded a couple times, I think, or at least once. It took a while to be Josh Donaldson. That's the risk. It's definitely a risk. I think that the star has fallen pretty badly. What we're seeing is that those strikeout rates in the minors that had fairly high swinging strike rates attached to them are getting bigger strike out rates in the majors.
Starting point is 00:56:54 And he's got a 12% swinging strike rate. Let's look at qualified major league hitters by their swinging strike rate. Let's just throw it on the fan graphs thing so we can see it from the beginning. What I'm going to find is that a 12% swinging strike rate is going to beget a bad batting average. I mean, that's just, that's, let's see here. Let's see the other 12% swing strike rate guys.
Starting point is 00:57:30 Ryan McMahon, Adam Duvall, Dansby Swanson, but still only a 240. Will Myers, Dominic Smith. Who's the best batting average on here? Mitch Hanegar, 262. Austin Riley at 287, but that's with a 340 Babbitt. Yeah. Vlad Guerrero. I mean, I guess he could be Vlad Guerrero.
Starting point is 00:57:54 But we're also not seeing any of the batted ball quality along with that. So the things that I try to look at in these small samples to, like, coax some more noise out are swing strike rate uh oh swing where kalanich is is league average so maybe there could be some improvement there and then the stat cast numbers which have kalanich he has hit one one a ball 109 which is slightly above average has a five percent bail, which is not great, and 34% hard hit. So basically, our assumptions about his power and contact, I think, have changed.
Starting point is 00:58:32 And he no longer looks like someone who might ISO at a 250 rate or strike out at 20%. That's where you're at, though? Like, I'm not there. I've got... This is really half-baked, but I'm going to throw it out there anyway. I think I'm leaning into the fact that
Starting point is 00:58:51 I've heard multiple reports now that the gap between AAA and the big leagues has never been wider. I don't know how you can measure that effectively, but I think because of the canceled minor league season, I'm more willing to accept an extreme negative outlier from any minor league player going to the big leagues this year than I would be in the past and the other thing with Kelnick is that he's basically
Starting point is 00:59:18 split this season between Tacoma and Seattle right and he's still 21 what he was doing at Tacoma was another piece of the puzzle that continued to paint the same picture we were getting at the previous stops. A 15.4% K rate, a 10.5% walk rate, a 320, 392, 624 slash line. Strike weight.
Starting point is 00:59:37 Yeah, it's like I agree with what Eric is saying just from a broader perspective. We should be a little more careful, maybe a lot more careful, with small sample guys that erupt like a Rosarena did because we don't want to regress them. We want to believe those players and those lines. But Rosarena's a very good hitter still.
Starting point is 00:59:57 He has been, with some flaws, of course. The O-swing's been pretty high, or retrade, as we call it a lot on the show. The O-swing has been pretty high, or retrade as we call it a lot on the show. I think it just, to me, it would be foolish to significantly lower the expectations. Should you modify them? Maybe. Maybe we can learn enough about the first 34 games of a big league career to say, we thought the ceiling was a possible future 60-grade player, a guy who's going to hit 30 home runs. We're seeing enough right now. We should bring that ceiling down closer to 25 home runs.
Starting point is 01:00:31 And instead of being a 280 guy, we think he's more of a 265, 270 guy. That's a fairly small adjustment in the grand scheme of things. It's still a very good player, but it's an adjustment nonetheless. The names you were comping him to, though, that's a scary list. Anytime you look at historical comps and you start pulling out Brandonon wood's name you're not feeling real good about that so like i understand like the the best indicator of future results is past performance and you've got to learn from history to not make the same mistakes over and over again and a lot of those guys in that list were very highly regarded prospects i think wasn't marty on the cover of the baseball america prospect handbook?
Starting point is 01:01:05 I think Wood was too. So it's not like those guys were at all like borderline, like, oh, it's like the 15th best prospect in the game. Those guys were supposed to be legitimately great, just as Kelnick is supposed to be legitimately great. But I think because things have gone so well for him at AAA this year, I'm still very optimistic about his long-term future, even if it's going to be a longer road for him
Starting point is 01:01:28 to get there than we'd hoped. Yeah, I guess you could look at that reach rate and say, well, he's not swinging at everything. You know, his reach rate and swing rate are about league average. So, you know,
Starting point is 01:01:44 if he's not swinging at everything and that's working for him and he's got the low swing strike rate in AAA, I'd set the over-under on strikeout rate the rest of his career around 26. It's funny. It's what the bat has him projected at for the rest of the season.
Starting point is 01:02:02 Yeah. I'll take the under. I don't know how we can track this and remember this effectively, but someday when we're old and my hair is very gray instead of just a little gray, we will check in on this bet and we'll see. I'll take the under
Starting point is 01:02:15 on 26%. I'll even give you the first 34 games. Under a 26% career rate for Jared Kelnick when his big league career ends. So commit that to memory, somebody out there. Remind us over a pint someday. Like, you guys had a Jared Kelnick bet, and it'll be awesome.
Starting point is 01:02:37 I think the over-under on the ISO has to be around 200. 200 ISO is pretty strong. I could see that going slight under, but I'd probably take the over on that. So I'm still more optimistic than your projection for Kalanick in the long run. I'm pretty interested. I'm interested to see how this turns out. I mean, the list of players was not good.
Starting point is 01:02:58 But the plate discipline's not terrible. And he has hit a couple balls hard. And he's not a worm burner machine out there, so you're not worried about him just pounding the ball on the ground. Yeah, it could just be that because he was a top prospect, he got to the major leagues with a book on him already. I do wonder about that. I know it's something we heard with Vlad Jr. a few years ago,
Starting point is 01:03:23 and increasingly teams are fully aware of the strengths and weaknesses about that. I know it's something we heard with Vlad Jr. a few years ago. Increasingly, teams are fully aware of the strengths and weaknesses of those top prospects, and they're ready to get that circulated as quickly as possible. Thanks a lot for that question, Eric. Definitely a fun long-term bet that I'm going to find a way to remember. Maybe I'll put a calendar reminder in for 10 years from now or something like that to check in. Hopefully, his career is still going 10 years from now. That would be pretty fun and probably a sign that I've won the bet, more likely than not.
Starting point is 01:03:50 Up and away. Up and away. Up and away is the hole? Up and away. Fastball's up and away. I'm on it. I think he's going to be good. Still going to be good.
Starting point is 01:04:02 So I'm going to take these 34 games with the necessary grain of salt. Holds up in the zone are pretty tough though, man. That ended... I love him. I can't remember his name. I love him. I mean, I'm living the Kestadira nightmare too. Yeah, Brandon Moss ended his career. But at 21,
Starting point is 01:04:20 I'll give him a chance to adjust and show us something there. Kyle Schwarber has certainly figured that one out. There you go. Before we go, I should say you should subscribe to The Athletic for $3.99 a month at theathletic.com slash ratesandbarrels. You can get all of the stuff we have around the trade deadline, all the great baseball coverage, all the follow-up stories, everything site-wide,
Starting point is 01:04:43 all of Eno's pieces as well. Eventually, I will write up all the prospects that are interesting that were moved from the deadline. It's probably going to be, I don't know when that's coming out, but at some point in a prospect column, we'll take a look at some of those players and see if there are any possible deep, deep sleepers in there. Again, $3.99 a month gets you the door at theathletic.com slash ratesandbarrels.
Starting point is 01:05:04 On Twitter, you can find Eno at Eno Saris. You can find me at Derek Van Ryper. Ratesandbarrels at theathletic.com is the email address. Keep the emails coming. I'll get to them. We'll have them on the show sooner rather than later. Friday, obviously, will be pretty packed as well, of course, with more trades likely coming down. But that's going to wrap things up for this episode of Rates and Barrels.
Starting point is 01:05:22 Be sure to check out Eno on Thursday afternoon on Twitter Spaces. We've got some pre-deadline stuff happening there. We've got our Friday show, and then, of course, the Friday afternoon at 4 Eastern, the Athletic Baseball Show goes live. I'll be on with Keith Law and some of our beat writers as well, so that'll be a lot of fun as well. So we'll be back with you on Friday. Thanks for listening.

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