Rates & Barrels - A Wild Day 1 & Four Teams Facing Elimination on Day 2

Episode Date: October 2, 2024

Eno, Britt and DVR look back at fun opening day of the 2024 postseason and consider the implications of Game 1 in each series as four teams -- the Astros, Braves, Brewers and Orioles -- all face elimination Wednesday.  Rundown 0:55 Tarik Skubal's Gem, Tigers' Game 2 Kitchen Sink Pitching Plan 10:56 Mets Parlay Big Inning Into Game 2 Elimination Opportunity in Milwaukee 25:38 The Orioles' Lineup is Looking For Answers 35:00 The Padres' Intriguing Rotation Alignment Pays Off in Game 1, Can This Version of Joe Musgrove Close Out Atlanta in Game 2? Follow Eno on Twitter: @enosarris Follow DVR on Twitter: @DerekVanRiper Follow Britt on Twitter: @Britt_Ghiroli e-mail: [e-mail] Join our Discord: https://discord.gg/FyBa9f3wFe Subscribe to The Athletic: theathletic.com/ratesandbarrels Hosts: Derek VanRiper, Eno Sarris & Britt Ghiroli Executive Producer: Derek VanRiper Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

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Welcome to Rates and Barrels, Wednesday, October 2nd, day two of the wild card round. Four good baseball teams lost games yesterday and four good baseball teams now face elimination today because life comes at you fast in October. A lot of ground to cover today. Derek and Riper, you know, Sarah's Pritcher Roli here. We're not going to spend a lot of time on the Tigers Astros series, if only because game two of that series will be starting almost minutes after this podcast becomes available. So we're not trying to give that series short shrift. We're just living in a space where there's not time to get the

information out there for people to hear it. But we will briefly touch on what happened in Game 1 where Tarek Scoobel pitched exceptionally well. You know, you were looking just before we started recording to confirm that there was a little extra life on those pitches from Scoobel in Game 1. Yeah, he threw a slider harder than he had thrown it all year. And he threw his fastball. He only threw his fastball harder once in any game this season. So he was on fire.

And actually, if you, if you watch him, he's, he's the kind of guy who lives to the moment. He's, he's, he's a roer. He's, he's a yeller. He's a, he's an LFG kind of guy. So he's, he's feeding off the moment. And, um, you know, he had a couple moments where they were, the ball hit his glove off his glove hand. And he did something else where the trainer came out

and he shrugged it off and hit 99 and said, no problem. But I wonder if there's a little bit more to that story. But in any case, he was the ace they needed. And now they get to go with the, I guess, the, you know, it's a Tyler Holt and Brent Herter combo. Is that what it is? I don't know. They didn't really announce a follower. They just said, you know, our reliever is starting the game. So they sent the podium. Yeah, they're just they're fully embracing the chaos and they did the thing they had

to do in the series, right? You have to win the game scubal starts generally to just be in a much better position to keep throwing whatever you want at the wall and have it stick. They came through with a few clutch hits when they needed it. I worried about the bullpen coming into the series. Will Vest cruise through his five outs struck out four of the batters he faced, but they did leave the door open in the ninth. I think that was a sweat in the ninth for Tigers fans.

Britt, the question I have for you as we look at game two, how do you see the Tigers putting the pieces together and how much do you think this is going to work the longer they have to do this, right? It might work for a little while, but is there a shelf life for how long you could mix and match pitching like this to the extent that the Tigers have done it throughout the second half when it's worked so well? I definitely think that they're a team that set up that fairs better in that

short series. Um, but also guys with the way there's extra rest days now baked into some of these series after this. I think that really helps a team like the Tigers who has pretty much, and A.J. Hinch admitted it, right? Scoobling, pitching chaos. They don't really have a plan B. So I think as long as Hinch is able to stay out in front of this stuff, and listen,

the old baseball adage applies here of like you baby guys all season to abuse them in October. So the way that you see guys use during the season, that's all going to go out the window. Now they're going to get whatever they can from whoever they can. And I think AJ Hinch is probably one of the best managers at maximizing that kind of capability. He's a guy who I know we debate whether there's advantages in the dugout, how much managers are worth. I think a guy like AJ Hinch in this scenario for a young Tigers team is worth a lot.

And I think he also, his institutional knowledge with Joe Espada, who was on his coaching staff under a team that, you know, a lot of those stars were guys that Hinch managed. I think that all comes into play here. So I think the Tigers may run out of gas in a seven game series, but I think a three or a play here. So I think the Tigers may run out of gas in a seven game series But I think a three or a five they they have enough they're going to throw everything but the kitchen sink at you and

Another thing I think they may do down the stretch guys and you know mentioned scubal with the trainers and I do think that's something To keep an eye on he like went down in the tunnel with AJ hinge at one point, too But if he's healthy, there's no reason they can't use Scoobble on his throw days if needed to get them through. Like this is something that teams have done, especially when they don't have a whole lot of other options to make them better. So the way this lineup is doing just enough,

the way the rest of this team is playing, I think all the momentum is on the Tigers side. You saw Houston mount that comeback or try to mount that comeback yesterday. That would have changed the whole complexion of the series. It's still, if you look at the odds, remains, I think Houston is still slightly favored because the odds makers are wondering

what we're all wondering, who the hell is gonna fill all these innings? However, I've seen way crazier stuff happen in October and I think, like I said, the Tigers are perfectly set up with a manager like AJ Hinch was very forward thinking, really uses data to make decisions. And I also think just that way that team has played out of their minds over their skis for the last month and a half, that all lends credence to how dangerous this team will be. Guys who have four or five ERAs out there, that means nothing right

now. All they have to do is get three outs, four outs, whatever AJ Hinge is asking of them. Everything that happened before, all these names that were not impressed by all this chaos, these guys could very easily go out in silence to Houston Astros. Yeah, I think, you know, I've got a couple points just because I think, you know, Brits right on track here and I think AJ deserves a lot of credit and a I think Britt's right on track here and I think AJ deserves a lot of credit and a couple of things to stand out to me is that I think that his teams are really well prepared and he does seem to make good decisions. One of the things I think of is the opposite field strategy from the batters yesterday

where they took everything that Fromberg gave them and took it to the opposite field. They were not trying to hit for power. If they tried to hit for power, you roll that over, you get the ground balls. Instead, they were just trying to serve it to the opposite field and string singles together. Now, that could actually be the idea tonight even, because Hunter Brown has fallen in love with his sinker.

Ever since he added it, he's been throwing the sinker twice as much as his four seamer or two righties. So maybe the righties will still think opposite field. Will the strategy work again? Because the Tigers as for a full year did not strike out, struck out more than average. They were not an amazing team at making contact. The opposite field strategy is kind of one that like works

if you have a bunch of loose arises, you know, will it work again with Uh, with this crew? I don't know, but that was the plan last night and they executed it perfectly. The other thing I think of that goes right to your point, Britt is Bo briskey, you know, as a starter, you know, if he, you know, okay, as a reliever, a lot better, you know, hitting the high nineties and, uh, and not only is he useful to this team and he finishes this this game out. But AJ went to him before Jason Foley blew the game. I feel like sometimes we watch a closer in the midst of blowing a game.

And then they bring out another reliever after the relievers blown the game and you're like, well, what was the what's the point of that? Yeah, but they actually put the fire out with someone else. He didn't let the fire completely consume and change that game. Right. I mean, that was a, I think a very heads up call by AJ hinge to do that. The other thing that caught my eye too, Bo risky was in a situation like this down the stretch.

And I think that's part of the benefit of being as flexible with roles as the Tigers have been, is that you get into the most pressure-cooked situation of the year and it's not the first time you're in it. I remember there's a story during one of the Summer Olympics several years ago. Michael Phelps had a coach that would break his goggles sometimes during practice. He'd say, hey, if these break during a race, what are you going to do Right. If that sort of mentality, like to be less surprised by the moment, I think that's something that you do benefit from when you mix and match as much as the Tigers have. So yeah, risky through the hardest pitch in that game, by the way, it

threw two at 100.1. So to have that just in your back pocket, to put out a fire impressive managing and more of a four seam where Foley, you know, with the two seam, he's a good pitcher, but it doesn't miss as many bats, you know? So to come in with a guy, he needed that missing at that point. I think that part is what forces his hand, you know? It's like, you know, at this point, you know, grounders will score runs, you know, and we, and it's just a three one game. Like, I mean, I can't, we're not getting me more runs up.

So he had to, he had to go to the guy who was striking. And he walked the guy and the last hit was a stinger from A-word but you know, Hinch had the right touch last night. The report by the way from Cody Stevenhagen of the Athletic is that Terrick Schubel left that game with cramps after six innings. So it doesn't seem to be any sort of injury related thing

and he was okay after taking that liner off the hand, too. Cramps are also something that happens a little bit more with fatigue, and we know that he's pushing innings, and this is the largest workload he's ever had, so. Yeah. I don't know if the throw-day thing's on the table for him. Yeah, maybe not.

Not if it's cramps. I think that's more later on in the playoffs, that they advance and they get into the five and seven game series, and then you start having some days where, okay, we really are. True days to win one right now at this point, you think we got to be able to do it with the guys we got, but I wonder if he's trying to, he's going to try and hold on to anybody tonight in case, you know, to start the next series. We'll be Mize Reese Olsen.

It's your own adventure. It's just, it's got to base it on the score, right? If it gets out of hand, sure. Then you're trying to save some guys. But if it's tight, I don't think you have that luxury. And they didn't get deep into the pen in game one. So I think just about anybody they would want will be available for two and three unless they throw a ton of innings today.

Yeah, there's so much strategy, I feel like involved in these short series, right? Like even the team that's up isn't completely off the hook. You want to step on their necks because in a game three, anything can happen. So it's so interesting the way the wild card, I think. But you can save any of your high leverage relievers, you know. But you have the off day. You always have an off day.

I think in the, in the Mets series, we saw a little bit of, oh, we're going to save guys now. Like there was a, there was a, they decided. Yes. When you go up by that much against a Brewers offense that doesn't really score. So they also were coming off of the double header where they didn't, they didn't have any, they couldn't, I mean, they really wanted to give Diaz a rest, you know?

So, but, you know, there were other teams that might've been like, I don't care. We need, we need to put Diaz in here. So. Yeah. Yeah, it would have been, I think, straining them a bit more than expected. Let's talk about the Mets-Brewers game. I mean, the Mets had a huge inning, so there was a lot that went down in the fit.

Jackson Churio pulls back a home run, but then has a ball to kind of tie him up that could have been caught. That extends the inning in addition to a close play, a foot race. Every ball that inning seemed to find Jackson Churio. It's so weird. Great play, and then just got eaten up, and then another play. The strange play, the chopper over to Reese Hoskins, Jose Iglesias had a race to the bag with Joel Payam, had won that, that extended the inning. And then it just didn't seem like bad process.

It just seemed like everything found the right spot for the Mets. They took full advantage of it, and that was all they needed to pull away for good. And I think the key that you guys were referencing was just that because they opened up that lead when they did, they threw Budo for two innings and they threw Stanek for one. And Severino could stay in the game because they had enough cushion

to let him keep working. So now they've got a more refreshed bullpen for the next two games. So I think that was a huge swing, just the timing of the beginning and the implications that had. Yeah, Reed Garrett, Edwin Diaz didn't pitch at all, so like they've got at least two guys that are fresher. Yeah. You know, there was a thing that was,

we've talked about this before on this pod, but the Iglesias run scamper dive did illustrate something that has been a big argument between factions of the internet about whether or not running through the bag or diving for the bag is faster. And I'll say that running through the bag is safer. And that diving for the bag is only faster if you get it exactly right. But if you get it exactly right, it is faster.

And it just has to do with gravity and geometry. Because if you do it exactly right, you're diving for the bag. Like you're using gravity and your speed to go straight to the bag. You know what I mean? Like if you get to that, you can get to that point faster. So I think that it does make sense,

especially in plays where there's a scramble at first base, and that they might have to tag you. The pitcher's running over. I think there's a lot of times, if the pitcher's running towards the bag, I think sometimes that's the best situation to kind of do a dive, because they can't then tag you and you might beat them to the bag.

I know that it looked, you know, might piss people off and why don't you just run through the bag? But I think in that case, it was actually the right decision and it had the right outcome for him. He said he just reacted. Yeah, I was gonna say, I don't know if that's something,

does anyone practice that? I mean, like the precision of the timing of when you would dive would take seemingly hundreds or thousands of reps if you were trying to get it just right. But your instinct is to do it because like that's why they ban it from in track and field.

Yeah. Like you could, your instinct would be like if there's the thing and you're in a row of spinners to just be like, ah, you know, and jump for it. And so that's banned in track and field. So that's, you know, I think instinct takes over in those moments and the instinct is right. Yeah, I'm glad you mentioned Iglesias though,

because I felt like that was a real momentum changer of that game. And he's kind of been the Mets, he's kind of been that for the Mets. This is the guy who had the OMG song and has been so part of a lot. Yeah, he's been a part of for the Mets. This is the guy who had the OMG song and has been so yeah he's been a part of like a lot of their big moments and it felt like you know early on the Mets should have lost this game on paper they were exhausted coming from the double header and when Diaz was going to be unavailable after throwing so much in the days that preceded that

game and you know and the Brewers were up you, and it just seemed like it was destined to be a game that they were gonna lose. And I think what we've seen from the Mets over the last few weeks in particular, really since they started turning it around after the first awful six weeks or so, is that they win games, they have no business winning. And you saw that yesterday,

and it's not just the Lindors of the world that have stepped up, This guy's like a glacius. That is what I think has made this team so tough is the depth that has been added by David Stearns, the depth of the lineup, the depth of that roster to withstand some of these injuries. You know, put up eight runs in that game after everything they had been through. And you know, it felt like such a bigger lead, because as I said, Milwaukee isn't usually a team that puts up a lot of offense, they rely a lot on the pitching. So it felt like this game was out of hand

as soon as they went up by that kind of a margin. So really credit to the Mets, who look like a very Tigers, like the Tigers of the NL almost, right? With this momentum, we saw the Braves fall flat, we'll get into that game with San Diego. But the Mets right now, not a team that you wanna play, which is not something we often say,

because it seems like everything came up. Mets yesterday, like you guys said, everything was finding holes. This is how it's kind of gone for them. And you just wonder, you know, are the Mets gonna be able to take two? Are they gonna be able to finish this off pretty quickly here? They just may

because of the way that they've been playing. I thought game one for sure was going to be a Milwaukee win. Now the Brewers are fighting for their lives. I mean, Derek, as a Brewers fan, how concerned are you because you've seen this show before? You've seen this early exit before. I mean, I think the reality of playoff baseball, when you get to any point, any series where you could just lose and your season is over. Yeah, you're worried as a fan, as a player, as anyone involved, like, you know that it's right there if something doesn't go your way. I think the thing that I'm most frustrated by today, I think a lot of Brewers fans would

share this frustration would be Jesse Winker, who had the worst season of his career, a good player, who had the worst season of his career and was hurt a lot last year and was on the playoff roster when he probably wasn't 100% healthy, can't put a key spot in that Diamondback series, came up with nothing, comes in and hits a bases clearing triple, right? And does damage in a spot where you're like, come on, anyone but this guy. So that was like the salt on top. I do think as far as being in a situation where, you know, the Mets are tired and the situation was great, you got your guy. We talked about it yesterday where Freddy Peralta versus anybody.

It was Severino yesterday was probably the best starting pitcher matchup the Brewers could ask for in this series as far as having a clear edge, whereas a lot of the other matchups would be much closer to even. So that feels like a missed opportunity. Peralta had one pretty rough inning. They decided to go to the bullpen, that backfired. You could second guess that all you want. Like Peralta could have thrown more pitches.

They went to Pionps first, that created a bit of a mess. Ashby came in, tried to clean it up. That's when a few of those seeing eye singles happened and it just all started to spiral from there. So you just have to erase it. That's the only way you can survive in the postseason. You have to forget a rough day or a rough inning from the day before and move past it

because you can flip the script in one day, right? The Brewers come back and win game two. Then we're back into the same situation where we're always in the elimination game where is the pressure on the team that just lost the day before? Who knows, right? It's a goofy format. You wrote about this in the recap that you had from the Orioles Royals game, but 14 of the 16 game one winners in this wild card format have gone on to win the series, which, you know, it's still a

small sample, relatively speaking, because it's a relatively new format, but that does put extra weight and pressure on you right away. If you're one of those teams that dropped their opener on Tuesday. Yeah. I mean, I, not to put more salt in your wounds, but I do want to highlight really quickly the, there's some aspects of this that I think have David Stern's fingerprints on it. And one is that a little bit of an Alex Anthopolis, like go get, you know, credible veterans like Winker to patch rather than, you know, necessarily shopping at the top of the trade market, just get guys that will fill in and be better than replacement. You know, that's the sort of Winker idea. But the other is

than replacement, you know, that's the sort of winker idea. Uh, but the other is, um, that, uh, with Stearns, I, you know, I know he can be cold and calculated and, and, and comes from a little bit of the Ivy tree, Ivy league tree and, and has a little bit of that sort of Billy Beane cold and calculation in there, but what I've heard also from players, you know, um, you know, Steven Vogt told me when he arrived in Milwaukee, David Stearns was there to give him a handshake, tell him, you know, we have this, this person can help you do this. This person can help you do this, whatever you need to make your transition easier, to make you easier to get here, to make you sit for me, more comfortable.

We can do that for you. And that sort of honesty and also an executive talking to a player does not always happen in every league. There are a lot of executives that remove themselves from that because they want to be able to just cut Stephen Voed if it doesn't work out without thinking about, oh, I met his wife. You know what I mean? They just want to be like, oh, that's just a player for me.

I don't need to think about it. He's just a guy in the thing, a number or whatever. And so I don't think Stern thinks like that. And so with Iglesias, apparently, he wasn't gonna make the roster opening day and they talked to him and they said, they were really honest with him saying like, we can cut you now like a week or two

before the end of spring training so you can maybe try and catch on with somebody. But if you stay with us and if you go down to the minors, you are the first person who comes back up. Like you are a one man depth machine. And you know how the season goes. You are going to be up. So they were trying to be honest with him, show him where the opportunity was, show him what he had to do. And he said he appreciated that. And that's why he stuck with the organization. He's been so important to them. So, um, you know, I think that's a bit of a Sternsian moment for them.

Thinking about game two briefly, you know, the Brewers didn't tap into all of their a relievers. The best reliever they ended up using was Ashby. So maybe he's not available for two, but he threw few enough pitches where they could use them if they wanted to. And he'd certainly be available for game three. Aaron Savali kept the A relievers fresh. Devin Williams, Trevor McGill. I don't know what they're doing game three, but. Well, I don't think I mean, they think I don't think they were planning

on using him in that spot. I think that was the Savali was not going to start game three. They must have known that going. I asked Myers, but probably Tobias Myers and then DL Hall in some kind of tandem would be their plan if they go to game three, if they don't have to use those guys in two, like Montas versus Manaya kind of fits as an even sort of matchup. We talked about Manaya getting knocked around last time he faced the Brewers in the end of the regular season and Montas actually pitched in that game as well.

So we've just seen these two match up. I think the script on that day is one that the Brewers from a pitching perspective would probably follow again, where they're going to have a pretty quick hook with Frankie Montas unless they have a substantial lead in this game. Yeah, that's fair. I mean, it's really hard to predict how one game is going to go, which is what makes these wildcard series so infuriating is, you know, will the Mets follow the same kind of formula that they did yesterday. Manaya has been really the anchor for the Mets. I mean, Severino has been good,

but for them to get six innings out of him yesterday was like a gift from the gods. They weren't expecting that at all. Obviously it helped their bullpen a lot. Manaya has been the most consistent guy in their rotation. So if you're the Mets, you're feeling real good one, oh, with a guy like Manaya on the mound and with, you know, a bullpen that is a little bit in better shape than they were yesterday. So this to me seems like a series that really the mess could take.

I mean, the Brewers could even it up here, but as, as you noted, the 14 of 16 is tough. If the game, the teams that went on the road, um, I think it was eight of 10 that went in game one on the road have gone on to win. So again, the small sample size, but history, I guess, on the side of the team that wins, maybe because it is very difficult to play two back to back elimination games, which is essentially what the Brewers of all of these teams who've lost game one are going to have to do. If the Brewers can make it through game one, like Ina said, who are you saving?

Who's pitching in game three? You can't think about that. But also I think it is incredibly difficult to play. Yes, back to back winner take all games. I think it really takes a toll on teams. So Milwaukee obviously has to get through this one, just like every other team that lost, but then you wonder in what condition would they be in

for a potential game three? Yeah, I wasn't exaggerating at the top when I said, four good teams lost the game and four good teams all face elimination today. That's just the way this format works. In terms of just X's and O's, Montaz, you know, since he's gotten to the Brewers, has turfed his slider and gone to more of a cutter. So he's four seam cutter, two seam and splitter. And, you know, I think he's been a lot better with them, about a run better with them than he was, you know, with the Reds.

Reds. On top of that, I expect him to kind of air it out a little bit and maybe expect to just go four. You know what I mean? So maybe we'll get a good top end Velo from Frankie Montaz in this game. With Manaya, you can point to the last matchup and say, well, he didn't do well in the last matchup. Why would he do well this time? And I would just say that the difference between the regular season and the postseason might actually favor Manaya here because what I see in the game log for Sean Manaya is that he threw, you know, 65% sinkers, you know, basically two-thirds sinkers in his last time. And yes, that's his best pitch, but he's probably also thinking, I want to go five, six, seven, you know, it was like near the end of the season. He wants to win it.

He wants to go deep. He wants to rest the bullpen. So he's thinking maybe I need to set this up and do this. I'm going to start with the heavy on the sinkers and I'm going to start mixing in those stuff later in this start. He's going to think I need to go three or four, you know? And, uh, I think he should, he will start mixing his pitches more from the beginning. And I know that his sinker is his best pitch ever since he dropped his arm slot.

But he's not actually Chris Sale. Everybody wants to say he's Chris Sale. But when I look at his numbers since he dropped his arm slot, I see Andrew Haney. So I think he's more now of an Andrew Haney where his fastball is his best weapon, but he has to mix the slider in enough so that people can't just anticipate fastball every time. And so I would expect a little bit closer to 50, 50, uh, sinkers, uh, and then off speed pitches.

Yeah. We'll see what kinds of adjustments we get from Sean Maniah in game two. It's the early evening game. They pushed the start time of that one back relative to the game one. I think it's a six 30 local start for Brewers Mets game two, it's the early evening game. They pushed the start time of that one back relative to the game one. I think it's a six thirty local start for Brewers Mets game two. Let's get to Royals Orioles, Cole Regans and the Kansas City bullpen outdueled Corbin Burns. And Britt, you are on hand for this one.

Jason Stark dropped this one into his column. Yes, I say Hippo Vaughn versus Babe Ruth was the last time a pitcher worked into the ninth inning for his team's playoff opener, only to lose one nothing. So Corbin Burns taking a bad beat, right? I mean, all October losses sting, but when you trade for an ace and he pitches that well and it's not quite good enough to get that win at home, that doesn't feel very good. That's not him.

I thought I had a quick recap. Both teams, which, well, the Orioles could not hit. And it really seemed that's where it's it's really a repeat of, you know, if you're an Orioles fan, I think you watched it. And you thought, oh, my God, this is an exact repeat of last year's division series against Texas, where the offense went away. And make no mistake, like they traded for Corbin Burns to start games like this, so they'd have a legit playoff ace.

And he did everything and more. The offense was was miserable. And Orioles fans, they didn't sell out yesterday. And people were blaming the weather. It was misty. And, you know, you know, the game time had started at four. I also think a big part of it is that this team hasn't been playing well They've been under 500 since July and people have seen what I saw yesterday Was a familiar site people have seen this offense in this lineup do what it did yesterday in big spots all year and There's just a lot of things that you can pick at. But for me, it is incredible, guys.

What if I had told you like a year ago that Adley Retchman wouldn't be catching in game one of a best of three game set in the postseason? That would be odd, right? This is your franchise catcher. I mean, not only does Corbin Burns prefer James McCann, but Adley, who DH'd has been, as we've talked about on the show,

pretty miserable offensively since June. Whether he's hurt or not, that's for another day. But James McCann came up in a couple big spots and had some brutal at bats for them. So, you know, I'm not saying this is just on those guys. This is on the lineup one through nine. You know, that really the only guys who did anything were Cedric Mullins and Urias.

The rest of that lineup, the big heavy hitters did nothing. And Cole Regan's certainly one of the best pitchers in baseball, a standout outing from him. He would have gone more than six innings if not for calf cramps. That was one of those games, guys, where we saw the bullpen open. And I was like, okay, are they getting cute here? Like, why would you take this guy out after 80 pitches, right? Like, just getting ready to crush him on the old Twitter.

And then you see that he's got calf cramps. And you're like, OK, because he was also primed to match Corbin. It felt like it was also like Scoobal dominant, but also pushing innings totals he's never played before. So, yes. So he did say he thought he'd be available for more games in the way it looks. That looks certainly like the Royals are going to end up playing more games. I mean, it wasn't lost on anyone that Bobby would junior who the Orioles

passed on a day, guys, the Richmond is the guy who gets the two out hit. And I don't know if you guys thought about this, but this came up, for the people in the press box. Bitting fast, Quentin was activated prior to the game. He's got a broken left thumb. He's back two weeks early in the third in the lineup. They put him in the lineup, I think mostly for show. It makes that lineup longer.

But if he's mostly for show, then put him lower. Yeah, you would bury him in the order. If you think, I mean, you're putting him in front of Sal Perez. Like, that's a pretty big aggressive decision. They must think he's truly the best option to put there. Right? It's not like a decoy situation.

That's not my question. My question is, in a big spot with two outs, you've got Bobby wit and you've got a pretty much a hurt Vinny Pasquantino on deck. Why are you pitching to Bobby wit? Right. Yeah. I think that's a tactical question that a lot of teams are going to wrestle with the longer the Royals are alive.

This is the situation because it's hard. It's easy to wonder if Pasquantino is completely healthy. You did have one of the Royals hard. Even if you put Sal Perez behind Bobby Witt, I think you'd pitch around Bobby Witt. Yeah, why you pitching Bobby Witt with two outs? There's nobody else on that team that scares me the same as Bobby Witt.

Exactly. In a zero-zero game where like, you know, okay, this wasn't a game that was gonna be a high-scoring game. It was very evident early on that one, two runs might do it. You get into the sixth inning. Why would you pitch Bobby Witt? It doesn't matter, it doesn't doesn't matter the best thing you can't win with a zero you know the

one the bat that frustrated me the most with Anthony Santander comes up and they've got runners on and you know the fans are finally in it and it's this big moment he swings at the first pitch I mean I get being attacked. With the bullpen, right? Yeah. Wasn't Sam Long? Yeah. Sam Long too, it's like, just see a pitch, man. Like see one pitch at least. And Sam Long throws a ton of breaking balls.

You're not, if you ambush him early in the count, you're not necessarily getting a fast ball just because you swung early in the count, you know? You know, you could go up there being like, oh, I'm gonna swing early and get a fast ball. No, Sam Long throws that curve ball a ton. So, you know, you know, you could go up there being like, Oh, I'm gonna swing early and get a fastball. No, Sam Long throws that curve ball a ton. So, you know. Yeah.

I mean, overall usage Sam long, 38.5% for seamer usage has a slider, has a curve ball, has a splitter. Yeah. So he's not, he's not, he's not giving you a fastball just cause it's Oh, so and sometimes they are just sort of weekly grounded out. And I was like, all right, Marsden stars. Yeah. There's a big opportunity there. And I think of the three relievers that the Royals use, he's the more

hittable, who bitch nurse said that was your best shot. I mean, the matchups that favored you the most were those opportunities against Sam Long, but Cruz that inning with just 10 pitches. So not not much there. But as game two goes to wide arsenal starters going toe to toe. Right. So you have said Lugo going for the Royal Zach F. Lynn going for the Orioles. I think this is like a coin flip sort of matchup. They've each faced the opposing lineup once this season and didn't pitch particularly well. The lines were almost the same. F. Lynn was pitching for the

Rays at the time he went five, give a five earned. It Eflin was pitching for the Rays at the time. He went five, gave a five earned. It was a 10-8 win for the Rays. So he actually got a win, but I don't think that really matters. The line wasn't very good. Lugo went five and a third, gave four earned runs on nine hits, couple of homers. That was a five-nothing loss for the Royals

to the Orioles all the way back in April. So, long time ago, a lifetime ago. And these are two guys that have as many wrinkles as anybody could want because they have so many different pitches. So is it fair to make an assumption that both Lugo and Eflin enter this matchup this time around with a completely different game plan than what they tried the last time they faced these opponents? I mean, like physically, yeah, Zach Eflin has been throwing more high four scenes, high and tight four scenes,

just like Trevor May wanted on this cast. He is something he pointed out and they're doing it in Baltimore and it sets up all of his low stuff, his low and inside sinker. It sets up his low breaking ball better because they have to honor something high. So that's been why Eflin's been better with Baltimore.

So that's why he's not exactly the same guy that faced the Royals the last time. And then on the other side, it's the bats. I mean, the bats seem like they're just different for Baltimore right now than they were in April. And so Lugo, I don't know if he needs to even change his approach as much as, he's just gonna have more success

because the bats aren't the same. But I will say, you know projections favor Eflin actually by a tiny little bit and But I don't think that that matters as much I think that just the quality of these pitchers is not quite the same as the quality of the pitchers last night Which is not to say that they're bad, but they're just not as good So this is when the Orioles should score some runs. You know, it's not Reagan's. Okay. So you don't have the excuse though. Well, you know,

the guy Reagan's was good tonight, you know, this is not Reagan's. So, you know, you should be able to hit them. You've hit them before, you know, so it's tonight. If they score zero or one, it's, it's there. The bats are the reason they lost. Yeah, yeah. And if it comes down to bullpens, I think the Royals bullpen is better. So if you're the Orioles, this is a, you gotta score some runs early and often, and you can't make it a tight game because the Orioles bullpenitions have been well-documented

and this is a game you wanna win eight to four, right? You wanna do like what the Mets did. You wanna make it as stress-free as possible. And you also wanna give the lineup a little juice, right? Scoring, winning this game three to two, the bats haven't really done much still, right? But if they score eight runs today, all right, maybe they are finally back.

But they're in the same predicament that Milwaukee is and that, you know, if they go out tonight and they use all their good arms and then they scratch and claw and win this game by one run. Well, they're in big trouble tomorrow with Dean Kramer on the mound against Michael Walker without really any of their bullpen guys. Kramer isn't a guy who's going to go super deep into the game. As you said, you know, this to me, this game is on the, this is the lineup. This is on the bass.

This is on that young core that everyone has talked about for so long that last year, the excuse was they're young and they're inexperienced. There are no more excuses. I think you gotta get it done. Right. Yeah, lots of drama. And we'll see what the Orioles are able to cook up. I mean, I hate to say like, I'd be very surprised their bats stayed quiet.

I know we've talked a lot on this show about how much the struggles have lingered over the course of the second half, but it certainly seems like an opportunity to turn things around and extend the series here in game two. Let's talk about the Padres Braves. I think the Padres did the thing that you always want to do when you're hosting a playoff opener. You have a ruckus crowd and you do something early to just blow the roof off, right? Like that's what the Tatis Homer in the first inning did. We knew this was a really difficult situation for Atlanta because

AJ Smith Schaver had to come up and make this start. And I think for as poorly as Game One could have gone for Atlanta, I think they kind of had some good fortune similar to the Mets bullpen because of game flow, where they didn't have to tap into as many of their good relievers. Aaron Bummer went two and two thirds, Jesse Chavez gave them two, Luke Jackson gave them two. So they at least rested some of their more important relievers. And then of course they get Max Fried on the bump against Joe Musgrove in game two. So the situation, much like it was for the Mets, didn't look good entering Game 1 for Atlanta. And maybe it was a little worse because of the starting pitching situation.

But at least as they try to claw their way back into the series, they can do it with better relievers if Fried only gives them five innings today. Yeah, I guess it could have gone worse if they tried to if they'd thrown Tiaz a third time and they'd had a close game. And yeah, the glia, the glaciers. Yeah, the guess it could have gone worse if they'd tried to, if they'd thrown Tiaz a third time and they'd had a close game and- Oh yeah, Viglaeus, yeah, Viglaeus had gotten his game. Viglaeus pitched again, then they'd be like, oh crap, then, I mean, at least tomorrow they can kind of throw a more rested staff at them. And you'd think that, you know, maybe they'll have a, it is interesting that they pitched Michael King and then Joe Musgrove and Dylan Cease isn't anywhere to be seen. He's game three.

It's strange for me. Maybe they're, maybe they're getting arrogant and holding him for the next series. Yeah. I mean, he last pitched September 25th, so they could have used them. I would want to do my A's if I'm running the Padres. He's my ace. I wonder if they're just like, we have such good pitching and we're going to hold on to Cease for game one of the next series.

Was Atlanta's situation enough where you say, okay, we still have an edge with King. King pitched really well. He had a fantastic start. So process questions aside, the results were exactly what you're hoping for. Or is there something else going on with Dylan Seist that we don't know about yet? Right. Like that's the the the lingering concern. You have this time of year, dude, like, you know, Chris Sale didn't just have a backspasm. He didn't he pitched he was throwing like 89 in his last outing in like in mid September. You know, so like this Chris has been dealing with something for a while. It's not like, oh oh he woke up and you know

On the wrong side of the bed yesterday. No, this is like they're trying to get Chris sale, right? I mean he's off of the roster. So You know, I think Yeah, maybe there's something with the seats that we don't know about with the other thing that I noticed was that the Braves were number One and right on right sweepers this year, in terms of seeing the most. And now, in terms of what they've done against that, there's some up and downs, like they whiff a decent amount against them,

their batting average was like third worst against those sweepers, but their ex-wobble was decent. So you think, well, maybe this is a bad strategy, but I would say that if they are number one in right on right sweepers, that means the league has decided that the Braves aren't that good at right on right sweepers.

And who's got one of the best sweepers in the game? Michael King. So, you know, they throw them out there. And like Cole Regans, whose V-Lo was up over the second half, Michael King's V-Lo was up. His sweeper was two ticks harder, and he had 12 strikeouts, zero walks. The sinker was looking beautiful.

Maybe it's just an embarrassment to Riches, and they saw something in that matchup. They said, oh, the VeroWrite sweepers, that's gonna be a good way for us. Tomorrow, Musgrove spins a two. I mean, today, Musgrove spins a two, and he could just do the same thing. But he's not quite the same type of pitcher. He doesn't really have that sinker that goes the

other way. Like Michael King does, everything that Musgrove throws goes glove side, basically. And so I'd be interested to see if they have a better time against him and Max Reed shuts them down. I mean, that's, it's a possibility that this goes to three. Yeah, this is the one I think that is the most likely to go three. Cause same thing, you know, I was looking at the matchups and I'm like, we're C's. And then I saw he was slotted in for tomorrow for game three, which is nice insurance. But as we all know, it's a coin flip.

Anything can happen in a game three. So you do wonder what they will be hurting though. Braves will be pitching wise. I mean, free to say, well, yeah, because swelling box pitched in the double header on Monday, elder homes, pitched in that game. Right. So I, you know, I would love to know if, if it really is like tactics and saying we can save C's

for game three. And if we don't need three, then he opens the next round and then he goes more in that series and that's really important. Like that's great planning and thinking ahead and very aggressive, which is in line with how the Padres like to do things, but I just have that little curdle of doubt in the back of my head that says, maybe something's just not feeling right for Dylan Cease.

If he didn't pick the ball yet. They also is like, if you do, if you are maybe saving him, you still have him for game three. So if it does go three, then you're like, okay, we're using Cease and we have our ace on the mound. We feel great about it. And our three best pitchers pitched in the three games. So what else could we do?

They were all going to pitch anyway. Yeah. Yeah, that could be, that could be the way they wanted to go. But I'm really interested to see just how Fried pitches. One point on Musgrove here, we know he's pitched a lot better down the stretch. I think it was last seven starts, 50 Ks against five walks, a 238 ERA, a 0.86 whip. You know, you mentioned he made some adjustments, right? He's not quite the same pitcher late in the year that he was around the injuries earlier this season. Oh yeah, he's throwing a new 86 mile an hour

fastball, a hard slider. And it's funny to say that, oh, he's got another breaking ball. Yeah, he's approaching Seth Lugo status where, you know, he's going to have eight breaking balls at some point. But I do think that this is an important one because it kind of bridges. It's a it's a bridge the gap kind of thing between his cutter at 89 ish and his sweeper at 83, 84 ish, something in between there. And when he's on, he's just going to be sort of, oh, you thought it was that breaking ball? No, it's this breaking ball, you know?

And he's just going to get you leaning out over the plate. So I think that, you know, that and the command that has been touch and go, you know, since he's come back from injury, those are going to be the keys for him is sort of playing for far further furthest games with his breaking ball with them. An opportunity to make predictions if you want to. I'd love the opportunity to be even more wrong on a day-to-day basis. That's the best thing about analyzing the game the way we do in the postseason. No changes to my predictions.

So I'm taking all the chalk still to come through and eventually win their series. But you can't do that in the face of Brits stat 14 out of 16. That was the whole point though of taking the chalk, right? It's like, I'm just going to stick to the chalk and the unexpected thing is going to be that those teams don't dominate the way they have historically, because it's still a limited sample and we're still learning a lot more about how these series are going to work over time. So I'm going to be stubborn and stupid and probably be disappointed as a result

of my stubbornness and stupidity. That being said, whose season ends today, Britt? Oh, how many teams, how many teams are you going to just send into the off season golf mode? Two. Two. Which two? Brewers? Yeah, I think the Brewers are done.

Okay, who's the other one? I think the Orioles are done too. Brewers and Orioles are playing golf together. Cool. All right. I think the Braves make it a three gamer. I do. All right. The Bra the Braves make it a three gamer. I do.

All right. I think the Braves, yeah. They extend it to three and then we'll talk about the predictions for that if it happens. So Houston lives. You know. I picked the mats based on vibes and lineup. And so far I'm looking pretty good on that one. Definitely one on vibes in game one, no doubt.

Eight runs, lineup two. Lineup two, yeah. The Braves had 15 strikeouts and zero walks against Michael King and company. And I know that has something to do with their matchup, but that's not a good sign. That's super aggressive, no patience. I don't know if they can flip the script

and have a different approach today, but if they have that same approach as they had yesterday, which seems very grip it and rip it and try to hit homers, I think Musco is going to take advantage of that. So I have the Braves and Brewers out today. Baltimore bats, you gotta wake up, man. And I'm going to say they're going to wake up today. And with Astros,

the pitching matchup is too much of a big difference for me, Hunter Brown versus, uh, a reliever game. I'm going to take Hunter Brown. I'm excited. I think they're all going three. Probably won't happen, but we'll see how it plays out here in just a couple of hours. We are going to go on our way out the door. Reminder, you can get a subscription to athletic atic at the athletic.com slash rates and barrels, $2 a month gets you in the door with all the great playoff coverage that we have. Be sure

to check that out. Get everything else too. Fantasy football, Premier League, everything you could want. NBA season just around the corner as well. You can find Britt on Twitter at Britt underscores, really find Eno at EnoSaris. Find me at Derek and Riper. Join the discord with the link in the show description. Be sure to tell me how wrong I am about everything in October. It's my favorite thing about this time of year. That's going to do it for this episode of rates and barrels. We are back with you on Thursday. Thanks for watching!