Rates & Barrels - AL Wild Card Matchup Breakdown

Episode Date: September 30, 2024

Eno and DVR discuss the two AL Wild Card matchups with the Tigers' second-half surge bringing them to Houston, with an opportunity to end the Astros' string of seven consecutive ALCS appearances. Plus, they examine the Royals-Orioles matchup, and wonder if the Kansas City bats behind Bobby Witt Jr. and Salvador Perez can bring enough to the table against playoff pitching, and if the O's second-half performance (40-41) will carry over into October.  Rundown 3:14 Can The Tigers Carry Their Excellent Second Half Into October? 10:34 Buying Elite Quality of Contact Suppression? 17:31 The Difficulty of Picking Against the Astros 25:52 How Do the Royals and Orioles Match Up? 34:37 What's Behind the September Struggles of the Baltimore Bullpen? 38:57 Who Advances to Face the Yankees in the ALDS? 47:37 The Lingering Questions About Supporting Bats Behind Judge and Soto 50:31 Cleveland's Shift Toward More Power in 2024 Follow Eno on Twitter: @enosarris Follow DVR on Twitter: @DerekVanRiper e-mail: [e-mail] Join our Discord: https://discord.gg/FyBa9f3wFe Subscribe to The Athletic: theathletic.com/ratesandbarrels Hosts: Derek VanRiper & Eno Sarris Executive Producer: Derek VanRiper Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

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fellow athletics senior writer Chris Finini and two-time national champion Damien Harris embrace the sports new madness with you. We're also just gonna have a ton of fun enjoying all the things that make college football great. Check out the brand new Until Saturday every Monday, Wednesday and Thursday this fall. You can find us wherever you listen to your podcasts. Welcome to Rates and Barrels, it's Monday, September 30th. Welcome to the postseason. We're there, at least for one of the two leagues. Edo Ceres, Derek and Ripper here with you. It is a great day here as we close out September.

A great day for baseball. A lot happening though because we have a double header of Consequence so a couple things first off if you've already won your fantasy baseball league championship congratulations If you have not because the double header Happening between the Braves and the Mets on Monday will determine that outcome Best of luck to you, even though you might hear this after the double header takes place. I Welcome. Best of luck to you, even though you might hear this after the doubleheader takes place. I actually have a sliver of hope.

We're now in fourth in the main event. I can't win it, but I can get onto the podium with one thing. Do you know what it is? A Spencer Schwellenbach win. Jose Iglesias has to score two runs. That's it. That's all you need. I think so.

I've looked at the standings. If he scores two runs, which seems like it's possible. It's two games. Two games. That helps. Yeah. And it is. He's like one be a ball. Maculis. So it's strange, right?

So in order for the Diamondbacks to make the playoffs, there has to be a sweep in the double header. If there's a split, each team playing in the double header goes to the playoffs. It's such a bizarre scenario. In status structures are such that the first team rests all their, the winning team that wins the first one rests all their guys and doesn't start their best pitcher

in the second game and lets the other one in. But you could still win that game anyway. Like you'd still try within the game, even though you're pulling starters and giving guys a day off because of the tight travel schedule. I was thinking that when Martin Perez was pitching well early for the Padres yesterday and they were talking about how it would be in their best interest to lose because if they lost, then they were in half to the Braves and Mets would have to play a double header right

before one of them played the Padres. And Martin Perez was still competing, you know, until he blew it up and, and, you know, they lost that game. But yeah, they also compete. Also, it's the Mets and Braves and they have a long history. So it's like, I don't think that they just want to be like, oh yeah, why don't you join the postseason with us? Gentlemen. Yeah. Well, that's part of it too, is like two division rivals playing this double header makes me think that even the guys that get the day off, like the backups are excited to play. They're going to do something and try and knock out a rival. So we'll see how it plays out on Monday. Good news is the AL field is set. That's going to be the focus

of today's episode. before we get into that. A reminder, you can join our discord. Lots of lively conversation in there. Be sure to check that out. The rebels are roused in the discord right now. I got to say shout out to M. Heller 15 for a thorough breakdown of what we've discussed on the show in the second half and how we didn't talk very much about the Detroit Tigers who have made it

into the playoffs against really all of the projected playoff odds. If you want to know how did we get here, I mean, why didn't we talk about the Tigers more? Look at this chart. Look at the path they took into the playoffs. These are the six AL playoff teams and the teams that fell out of the race. When the Tigers surged in September, odds wise, um, they are not shown there, but they have the kind of inverse, tumultuous falls at the end that you'd expect.

And I think the simple answer to the question is we just didn't think they were going to make it. Like they played very well over the course of the entire second half. That probably deserved more of our attention. They went 49 and 32 in their last 81 games, 17 above 500. That's a great stretch. It was the third best finish in Major League Baseball this year. The Padres went 52 and 29.

The Diamondbacks went 50 and 31. So they played on that level for eighty one games. Absolutely deserved more attention than we've got. But the question really is, how does this Tigers team match up with the Astros? I mean, Astros have gone to seven consecutive ALCS. This is one of the best teams we've seen in modern baseball history. And most of that core is still intact. We'll kind of break down what's different about the Astros here in a few minutes.

But as the Tigers close the book on their regular season, they were tied for 21st and WRC plus, so slightly below average with the sticks. Eighth worst strikeout rate at twenty four point three percent. So some swing and miss in that lineup, but really good on the pitching side. Run prevention has been excellent for this team. They ended up fourth with starting pitchers in K minus BB percentage, 17th in reliever K minus BB percentage. That's kind of the surprising part when you start to look at what's happening more recently. And they've been fifth in ERA for relievers.

So there's a gap between how they do it. It's a little bit unconventional in some ways, but they're very good defensively. As I mentioned before, sixth in defensive runs saved and sixth and outs above average. So you play good defense, you do it in a spacious ballpark, you score runs at just the right times. Good things can happen. What do you make of the pitching as an entire unit? Tarek Scoobel should win the AL Cy Young. He's fantastic.

Anytime he takes the ball, the Tigers are probably favored in just about any matchup that they play. The questions really come after Scoobel. How do they cobble it together, and can they rely as much on this bullpen throughout several postseason series and continue this great second half deep into October.

Yeah, I mean, just a note about why Scoobles, you know, stuff plus numbers don't necessarily line up with his results. And I would just say he's a lefty. We're going to be changing the model a little bit under the hood. I would say, uh, do something like add five points of stuff. Plus, uh, to what, uh, scoobble does. And he would be, uh, he'd go from one of four to one on nine, one 10, that he'd be a top 10 qualified starter and stuff. Plus even among a larger group of players, he would be on par with a sunny gray and Logan

well, uh, web and just a little bit behind Bryce Miller. Um, and then you were adding the fact that he has command on top of that, uh, because you know, some of the guys ahead of him and stuff, plus like Pepio or Bradley or, uh, Snell or Rodone, they don't have good location pluses. So Scoobble is part stuff undervalued by the fact that he's lefties and part the fact that he combines it with a really good command as well. So I think that's not the biggest mystery for me. And I'm just, I'm a little bit anxious to get that lefty adjustment and so I stopped talking about it's kind of embarrassing anyway as it comes to the rest of it I mean. I see some of the vestiges of that you know hundred and seven win season from the time from the Giants in.

You know hundred and seven win season from the time from the giants in the way the tigers made this work there was you know openers and bullpen games and their pen ranks well by command. 10 pen when it comes to location plus if not stuff plus. So, um, some part of it is not giving up free passes, not giving up as many homers, um, and then, you know, using the park, uh, to some extent to help you among, um, they do not do well in the projections when it comes to stuff place based projections. So some of this might just be that, you know, school was undervalued and a better projection within would change things. But right now, among starters, and I only use the top four starters,

the Tigers have a sort of mid level rotation for the playoffs and they have the top four relievers the worst bullpen in the playoffs other than the Royals. So those two so I don't love this Tigers bullpen I love Tarek Schubel I don't love the pitchers behind him I think there's a lot of questions Casey Mize is the 89 mile an hour slider that he threw in the last outing, his path to success and what happened? Why did his command fall apart in the fifth inning? Is he only like a three or four inning guy?

Reese Olsen, the stuff did not come back with him after the injury. Is that, is it on its way or is it not going to come back all the way? Kato Montero, I think of as maybe just kind of a two pitch guy that sometimes runs into problems third time through the order, um, or just generally he's inconsistent. I mean, he's just really inconsistent start to start. So I, I mean, one of those guys could step forward. Um, I kind of like Casey Meyers the best.

Um, but one of those guys could step forward and change the tenor of a lot of this, the way that Jackson Job could step forward in the bullpen and change the tenor of that, that unit as well. So you could see a future in which Casey Meis, Tarek Scoobel, Jackson Job, Jason Foley, and I don't know, Will Vest pitch 80% of their innings. Or at least in wins. Right. Well, and you also have, depending on the length that you get from your

starters, you have things you can do, like use Brent Herter for multiple innings or Tyler Holton. Like it's still, it's just so different. I think that's another part of, of why projections aren't going to spit out numbers that you're excited about when you look at this team. But if you find something that works well, why not? If you find a little edge that might be a wrinkle that other teams haven't found, use it. I don't know if that's exactly what's happening here, but one thing that caught my eye as I was looking at the quality of contact,

the ex-Woba team leaderboard for pitching. The Mariners were first this season, the Braves were second, the Tigers were third at a 299 ex-Woba, and the actual results were even better at 290. Some of that little gap could be the ballpark, but I think there's something they're doing with the quality of contact that they allow that is helping to offset

some of the lack of swing and miss, right? I think that is part of how you can explain to yourself, all right, yeah, they don't come in and throw the same kind of gas, the overpowering, filthy swing and miss stuff that other bullpens in this league all bring, but they do bring something to the equation that could work. I think everything kind of rides on the pieces falling into place just right. And if Rhys Olsen doesn't get his stuff all the way back, yeah, that's going to force them to use a herder or someone else a little more than they might want to right away. I mean, who even starts game two? Like, what's your best move?

Maybe do you decide that based on whether or not you win game one? Like that's probably at least part of the calculus and obviously rest is the other part of that calculus, you know, for AJ Hinch and this Tigers team, but I don't think there's even an obvious choice for that game to start for a lot of the reasons that you've mentioned.

Yeah, I mean, the way that they got here in their identity as a team while they were winning actually fits the playoffs a little bit in that it'll be everybody, you know, and they've kind of done that. I think Holton and Herter just as, you know, relievers that are good, I think Herter's a reliever for me in this situation. Those guys as long the relievers, I could go four or five and our lefties, I think is a strong thing for them. And then they have a lot of lefties in the lineup. Um, but you know, even when they face a, a, a lefty, they've got Spencer

Torkelson who's been better in the second half. So in terms of like, you know, trying to keep the platoon advantage as often as possible, I think they'll be able to manage it. And so I would start Mize second with Herder actually as the backup plan because maybe not Mize has like reverse platoon splits. So maybe come on Taro as the as the as the fifth inning guy. So catered Montero as the, as the, as the fifth inning guy. So Cater Montero comes up and pays us a fifth and sixth inning.

He's a little bit more traditional, uh, righty versus righty guy. Mize has reverse splits cause his splitters is best secondary. So I think of Mize Montero second game. And then the last game is Olsen and Herter and everybody. Just Frankenstein combos, but I like that it's unique. I definitely think that's the fun part of like, well, let's, let's see how it happens because I don't, I don't have a lot of confidence in it, but at the same time, I can't,

can't tell you why it's not going to work either. Yeah. I mean, one of the things that also has happened is the the stepping forward of, um, of, you know, Riley Green into near, you know, star superstar. Like he's he's right sort of on that border for four win season is kind of like an all star. Um, and, you know, I talked to him, uh, you know, a month ago or so about, uh, how he turned his, his max CV into a barrel rate over time and you know he came into the big leagues and hit one hundred and twelve miles per hour in his freshman year. And had a one on nine iso riley green did so you know that was that exit, believe it or not, is it there? Is he going to develop into it? And then he did what we all hope that a player does when we see good max EVs and not as good barrel rates.

He just added fly balls and added more launch angle. And when I talked to him about it, he said, yeah, I came up and I basically led the league in ground ball rate, my, my rookie year. And since then, my emphasis has been putting on putting the ball in the air. It's gone from a 56 ground ball rate, right? Green is in his rookie year to 43.6 this last year. So, um, now he's a guy, he talks about doing it with timing much more than mechanics, um, and, uh, and so he's really found a spot here where the

strikeout rates, the best it's been the walk rates best been the powers the best it's been and he's 24 left handed just all around game. You know i don't i don't i don't know if there's another level necessarily but this is a really good level and parker meadows came back and was more aggressive. You know when he came back i think he was a little bit passive at first, because that's just his game has been to take walks. This more aggressive player that he was when he came back up with the swing right up, allowed him to tap into a good batted ball, Veloz and, you know, put the ball in play and and he was a much better player

second time around. Torkelson has also been 25 percent better in play and, and he was a much better player a second time around. Torkelson has also been 25% better in the league average since he came back. So, um, you know, and Colt Keith has done his ups and downs. They just all seem to be lined up in the right direction. I would say that, you know, there, if you put together, you know, the April and May versions of this lineup, uh, you wouldn't, you wouldn't pick the Tigers to win this series. No, recent form has to mean something. And I also wonder if they've embraced the,

no one believed in us, but we're also kind of playing with house money vibe of, hey, like the pressures on the team that's been here and is expected to be here and is expected to go back to the ALCS. So let's just do what we do and maybe it'll actually work. Hey, it's Anna Martin from the New York Times and I'm here to tell you about something for New York Times news subscribers. And honestly, if you're a podcast fan,

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The other part of the lineup that I think deserves a mention, just Kerry Carpenter, he's been great on a per game basis. I think I've been skeptical in the past because of the age at which he arrived in the big leagues, initially having a little more swing and miss than he's shown each of these last two seasons. I think if we'd seen a completely healthy season from Carpenter, we probably would have seen 30 home runs from him for the first time as a big leaguer. And I think more people would have been talking about it.

I think we would have talked about it more. I think that absence probably curtailed some of the excitement about what he's been able to do with the bat too. So it's a decent lineup compared to what you see for the overall results. I think you mentioned before the addition of Trey Sweeney from the Jack Flaherty trade at the deadline

gave them a more credible shortstop than Javier Baez at the plate. So that also just brings up the floor a little bit for this group. And they got a couple of veterans like Matt Veerlings had a nice year, Mark Kanha, a couple of guys that can mix and match that also give them some help from the right side as well.

Cause as you mentioned before, they do have a bit of a lefty heavy lean for some of their more important bats. But you know, those two veterans plus Torkelson, who hasn't been great since coming back, but hasn't been awful either. Maybe there is just enough here to find a way to put some runs on the board and get it done.

It's hard to pick against the Astros though. I mean, you know, like which, what team, like which lineup are you taking? I have to take the one with Tucker and, you know. We have Tucker, El Tuve and Bregman, even if Alvarez doesn't play, like there's still some questions about Alvarez's status for the series.

He's gonna try and hit on Monday, according to the Athletics Channel Rome. It does hurt them a little bit if he leaves because he's the big bad power threat. I mean, Altube can go yard, Regman can go yard, Tucker can go yard, but they're not the same way. I don't think pitchers are as frightened by those three as they are by Jordan Alvarez. Jordan Alvarez is one of the big best hitters, three best hitters in the game, I think.

Top three, top five. I mean, elite of the elite is hitters, three, three best hitters in the game, I think. Top three, top five elite of the elite is up there. Yeah. Yeah. And so, you know, if he's out, I think there's a little bit of a sliver of daylight because, you know, we're talking about a Tucker that missed so much of the season that it's hard to imagine that, you know, he's all the way back. He has he has been pretty good in September. Um, but, um, I mean, you just, you just never know, uh, if there's any pain there still or what he's dealing with.

Um, and then, uh, you know, I'll to obey, you know, he's been an ageless wonder, but, um, you know, there's still, there's still, this is one of his worst seasons. Um, but still 27% better than the average. I love that. He's such a good player. And then Bregman is, is like kind of notoriously streaky for a guy that doesn't strike out that much.

He, his power, I think comes and goes. And they were even joking about it on the cast where they were, Oh, he's got a swing. And cause he, that's, that's how Bregman talks. He's like, Oh yeah, I've got to figure it out. I've got it. I'm going to buy. I'm about to like the one time he told me, I'm about to hit like 25 doubles and 15 jacks in the second half.

And you're like, okay, he got sorta close actually. He, he, he, he is a pretty good idea of where his swing is. And, uh, and so I don't normally, you know, report on something like, oh, what, what has he done in the last month or whatever? Um, but, um, September, October, 23% better than the average, uh, with the 244 ISO August, August August to 303 ISO. So it seems like the power swing is there for Bregman right now.

So even with Alvarez out, I would take the Astros lineup but there's a little bit of crack of daylight there if Alvarez is out. Yeah, I think that's a really good point. I mean, I think Tucker's looked like himself for the couple of weeks since coming off the injury. He's got a 180 WRC plus on the season. I think we've compared the ceiling for this lineup to being somewhat similar to the Yankees.

If both Tucker and Alvarez are in it. I mean, for the year they're tied for fifth in WRC plus at a one 11, their second best in strikeout rate. Some of the secondary pieces for the Astros lineup would be better than the Yankees. Yeah, I think, I think a tick better. I think it's close. some of the secondary pieces for the Astros lineup would be better than the Yankees. Yeah, I think a tick better. I think it's close. If you take Judgen Soto over Tucker Alvarez, of course, whatever, that's fine,

but I would take Peña, Altuve, Bregman, those guys over the secondary career, especially with Jairn Díaz. That's a pretty good foursome that I'm not sure the Yankees match. So there's a handful of critical matchups within a Tigers Astros series. I mean, short series, anything can happen.

I think Houston's continued ability to limit strikeouts with that lineup makes them extremely pesky. And if you don't have a group of relievers that can miss a ton of bats, I think you're looking at some very stressful plate appearances, not only for the Tigers bullpen, but also for Tigers fans. Imagine these games being one run games and you're going through the heart of the order

with good relievers that don't miss bats, but Astros hitters that can follow off a million pitches and just make things extremely uncomfortable. I think that's sort of where this little series could be won. The short series could be decided on those kinds of margins. I mean, the Astros A bullpen is still excellent between Brian Abreu, Ryan Presley, Josh Hader. So if they can find a way to navigate any middle innings matchups that might come up, if a starter goes a little bit short. I think they're going to be okay from a pitching perspective. But one thing that caught my eye looking into recent Astros playoff results from Ravel, who I like quite a bit. I think he's been

underrated in the regular season year over year for a few years now does have a career 424 ERA and 133 whip in the playoffs. That's an 80 and two thirds innings. So much the Astros are there. He's done that. And I think in the last four years, just piling up innings, but everything's harder in the playoffs. I think that's what those numbers tell me compared to regular season from.

That's a pretty big difference. Like the playoffs turned from Valdez a fringe. Number one starter solid number two into like a little back end number four type guy, because the opponents are just that much better. The Tigers have also been pretty disciplined in the second half. They have the fifth best chase rate in baseball. And that's I'm just going to use that second half split not only because that's when they were good, but also because that's when you know the guys came up from the minor leagues and this sort of roster started congealing, you know. So that's there's going to be a common story for me and this is going to come up in the next one as well, which is just the story is this you come in, the Tigers are disciplined, they force from her into some walks and get some people going on the base pass, you know,

get a timely hit and scubal dominates game one. And they just have a win in the pocket. And they have two chances to scratch one out against the teams where they against in games that they won't be it won't be as 50 50 that it'll be favor for the Astros. And they do that by throwing every pitcher they've got and you know making every right move and and and finding the way through to victory. I think it you know it's an ace born strategy ace led strategy. That's what you know I think will happen for some of these other teams without the same depth as other teams, without the same bullpen as other teams,

without the same lineups of the teams. But, uh, we've seen things, strange things happens. I'm, I'm going to pick the Astros though. Uh, because, uh, I think even with the ord on out, they just have superior depth, superior bullpen, superior rotation beyond the aces. And I think they can make it happen even if they lose game one. My lean has been the Astros too. But I say that as someone who really does want to give the Tigers their flowers,

even if this is where the ride ends, because it was a great second half. And it's a team with a big up arrow next to their name beyond whatever happens in this postseason who ends up going to Cleveland for the ALDS? All right, we're both on the Houston side of this one. When they get there, I was thinking about this too. The Guardians went seven and six against the Tigers during the regular season, but they had a minus 10 run differential.

So Tigers actually outscored them. And I think the big question I have the Tigers advances, is there eventually going to be a price to pay for using the relievers as much as they have, right? Will they begin to fatigue a little bit more as the series start to get longer? There is research that says that that exists. I mean, there's a piece in baseball perspectives

about how every pitch reliever throws over the course of season makes them worse. Yeah, so a lot more to come on Cleveland once we know who their actual opponent in the ALDS is. I think if you're Cleveland, even though you had battles with the Tigers in the regular season, think you feel more comfortable matching up against them

than you do against Houston for some of the reasons we outlined in that matchup breakdown. There's questions about this Cleveland team. What happens after Tanner Bybee and Gavin Williams and how much can they lean on what was the league's best bullpen by ERA? And having that rest sort of helps the bullpen. Having that rest maybe works against your lineup a little bit though, too. So kind of curious to see how all of that is going to play out.

Let's shift the focus over to the other AL wild card series Royals and Orioles. This Kansas City team is tricky. Recent form didn't exactly help, right? They stumbled a little bit down the stretch, but they're in. They're 20th in WRC plus out of 96, third best in strikeout rate though, 19.4%. Their starters are top 10 in strikeout minus walk rate at 15.9%. The relievers for the season grayed out poorly, but it's really important to note they have changed their bullpen a lot since the trade deadline by adding Lucas Erceg plus getting a lot from Daniel Lynch and Chris Bubich

working in relief roles. So when I start to think about the Royals, you know, I also look at the quality of the rotation and how much they let those guys work between Lugo and Cole Regans in particular, like they can go six plus and then turn it over to three relievers. And that could just be curtains, especially in a shorter series, because that might just be the script. Like pitching and defense might be their their script because a lot of the questions revolve around what this group of bats will do behind Bobby Witt Jr. Right Bobby Witt Jr. has been Jordan Alvarez at the plate this season

but with 30 steel speed and then in the field playing elite defense at shortstop It's amazing in a year in which Aaron Judge doesn't do Aaron Judge things I think we're probably talking about W wit as an easy favorite for the AL MVP. So you have a superstar and then you've got three above average bats by WRC plus around him. And one of them is questionable to play in this round. Vinny Pasquantino could be back for the wild card round. He hasn't played since August 29th. Pascuantino could be back for the wild card round.

He hasn't played since August 29th. So what do you think the Royals are going to do with their lineup against the Orioles pitching? Like that's the question. Like can the Royals bats do enough against that group of pitchers? I don't know. They've, they've sort of congealed or coalesced around this posted post deadline lineup. Which has been mostly the same Tommy fam at the top. You know sometimes against I guess no I this is an Adam Frazier at the top line of them looking at.

But one of those two guys at the top, the middle is sort of wit and, um, and, uh, and Sal Perez, um, I'm looking for a different one. I thought I think Saturday they must've rested guys because yeah, fam wit, Massey Perez, um, you know, that's an okay. That's a pretty good foursome. Massey has good power fan fam has not been walking with the royals but he has a good eyes so. You could you could i can see him being an asset in those four but i think it really falls off after that i mean. Uli gary l robbie grossman hunter and fro garrickbell, Mikel Garcia, I think has been a disappointment this year.

I mean, I don't think a pitcher is afraid of anybody in that, in that five some. And I'm not sure. I mean, Pascantino can help because he'll just push somebody out of a seat, but it's, it's not been, it's not been good down there. And I think that this Royals lineup is really going to struggle. It's, we haven't had a lot of teams go deep into the postseason with sub below average lineups. It just hasn't happened. I don't think it's ever happened.

I think we had one, when I looked at it, one World Series team, no World Series team that has won had a below average lineup and only one World Series team exists. And it was one of those Braves ones. Yeah. Nineties Braves is sort of your template. You have to follow if you're going to get away with a below average lineup and make a deep run in October.

I'm not sure that the Royals pitching depth, you know, Waka and Singer both have had nice years. I don't think they quite fit into the back end 90s Braves rotation level. Bullpen, you know, again, maybe if they can stick to their A relievers is fine. But that's the question I'm going to have for this team is like, what's really going to happen against top level pitching and then flipping the question the other way, it's like, what do you make of the Orioles pitching right now? In Corbin Burns, we've talked about how at prolonged points during this season,

the strikeout rates been down and the stuff hasn't been quite the same as we've seen from him during his peak years. He's still getting good results, but not just lead results. He was just napping. Yeah, he was just saving it because everything's been different down the stretch. Yeah. I mean, I think that some, some of these guys, I have talked to pitchers before where they've been like, you know, I've been like, well, why

don't you throw the curve ball more? And he's like, well, you know, wait till August. Yeah. I'm going to have to see this team like three times, you know, might as well, you know, I'll have some surprises for them later on. So sometimes pitchers do think about a full season and be like, you know, in this case, um, Corbin burns has thrown a sweeper before. This is not the first time he's thrown the sweeper.

It's come and gone. Right. But he did not really throw the sweeper for the first four months. And then in the last month of the season, he started throwing it also is cutter. He added three inches of drop to his cutter in September. Well, guess what happened to September? He had a 1.2 ERA, uh, with a 20, his 27% strikeout rate, the best strikeout rate of the season.

And, uh, again, like I don't want to fall into this fallacy of like, you know, uh, narrative and he's hot or whatever. There are supporting aspects to that hotness. In this case, he's changed his mix. He's a new pitcher and he's, he's better stuff. He had, what do you say? Like a one 33 stuff plus in September, like, yeah. Yeah. So I think, um, I think he's a formidable ACE.

He's an ACE of ACEs. He's, he's, he's going to go toe to toe with Cole Reagans, um, who again suffers from the lefty penalty. I know, I know, but, uh, I think that'll be a really fun, low scoring game. Um, and then once you turn the page from there, um, the projections and what has happened over the course of the season kind of diff kind of go in different directions, cause I have because I have these stuff plus base projections where I took the top four starters from every team.

Uh, and they are park neutral. So I removed the park. This is as if they were pitching in the theoretical zero park factor. You know what I mean? Like in the middle, the average park, um, and the Royals ended up with the worst rotation, uh, in, uh, in my sample with a 4.2 ERA, uh, projection with the PPRA. So, um, with this sort of park neutral one, uh, the Orioles are only between the Royals come the guardians and the brewers and then it's the Orioles.

But, um, you know, the Orioles also benefit from, uh, if you take Albert Suarez out of that foursome and you just focus on Kramer and, uh, and, um, Zach Efflin and Corbin burns, then you get that era down to three, seven, and the Orioles get into sort of. Top, you know, top half among playoff teams, sort of six or so, you know? So the Orioles have a slightly better than average rotation based on this metric for the playoffs and the Royals have the worst in the playoffs, which is weird because, you know, they do so well in full season stats.

You've got these second in war for the season, you know, among starting pitchers. But a lot of that is innings, you know, they just let their guys pitch a lot. Um, and even ERA, a lot of the, a lot of this ERA stuff, you know, the park does suppress homers and you can use that to your advantage as a pitcher, even if the park overall doesn't play as pitcher friendly as people think, you know, knowing that it suppresses Homer's is something you can use as a pitcher. Long story short, the, the pitching advantage I think goes to the Royals, but it's smaller than you think.

And the Royals bullpen is, you know, toe to toe with the Tigers is the worst bullpen in the playoffs. They are the key, I think to any team getting around its biggest weakness is hiding it by not using the fourth, fifth, sixth options a lot of times, right? And when I look at the Orioles bullpen, 550 ERA in September,

why so bad recently, but also like, does that actually mean that they are a problem or is it just a bad stretch at a rough time of the season? Like names on jerseys, I'm like, no, that's a pretty good squad. Yeah. People were in love with Cano, remember? Everyone loved Yannier Cano. And we talked about Danny Colom being just weird from the left side and a problem. Seranthan Dominguez is a high stuff guy. I mean, and yeah, not good command, but. It's interesting. This is kind of the opposite bullpen build

of the Tigers, right? Like this is a good test of your model. Stuff over command. Stuff over command. Like, let's see how this actually plays out over a few series and see if either one of these teams can make a run with the relative deficiencies within their skill sets.

Like that's a kind of a fun question to wrestle with. But at the same time, like I keep looking at this Orioles team and thinking, okay, yeah, the vibes are not what they were at the beginning of the season, right? We talked about their form and Britt pointed out that it's not just a bad month, it's a disappointing half of the teams

that are in the playoffs this season. The Orioles are the only one that played below 500 for their last 81 games. They went 40 and 41. They were one game below 500. So you hear that and you go, oh, well, that's the hair. It's good. They're toast. That's it. But let's consider the Guardians went 41 and 40. They were one game better.

The Yankees went 42 and 39. The Phillies went 42 and 39. I don't think anyone's asking these types of questions about the Yankees or Phillies right now. I think people are naturally skeptical of the Guardians as we have been all season, even though we've apologized for our skepticism at a few different opportunities recently.

Remain skeptical. And quietly remain skeptical in the comforts of our own home, but not in front of our microphones necessarily. All of this is to say, it's like the Orioles are still mostly the team we thought they were going to be on paper. The big thing they've lost is Grayson Rodriguez. And we learned recently, he's not coming back this year. So that's kind of a problem for them, especially as series get longer. If you want to tell me that Burns and Eflin as a 1-2 or as good as what the Royals have,

I 100% agree with that. I would say maybe there's even a slight chance that the edge would go to Baltimore in this case, and they get to play these games at home. So I think that bodes well for them as well. The bigger question with the Orioles is just like they put together this regular season resume where they're tied for third in WRC plus 115. Great lineup, right? I think only the Yankees and Dodgers did more as a group of hitters than the Orioles did this year. We've talked about the health of Adley Rutchman going back to late June. He hasn't been the same player, but they still have Gunnar.

They still have Santander. Mullens has played a lot better in the second half. Westberg is back from the IL, right? This is still a good lineup, even if the current version of Adley Rutchman is not a hundred percent. And even if he's more at the time, just because of the health, a glove first catcher that has a great resume as a hitter, but just isn't himself because he's not healthy.

I mean, the second half WRC plus of this lineup is one 11, which is seventh best in baseball. Right. So it's not that much of a drop off from what they've done for the entire season. Yeah. And think of it this way. Like I was going to say, let's say Reagan's shoves and Beats burns and like two to zero or something, or two to one. Um, and. You know, then, then I would say, Oh, well then everything's got to flip and, and the Royals are in charge because they coming out with Seth Lugo in the second. Yeah. But you know, people have gotten to Seth Lugo before and, and I'm not that afraid

of Brady Singer and, you know, so you're going to have chances and this lineup is better than people think. And I don't think that they're going to get shut out for a whole for a whole series, you know, against the team that they've even really seen recently. You know what I mean? Yeah, it's it's tough because I like Lugo versus Eflin coming into the season. We would have called that probably an even matchup, right? Now it probably favors Lugo versus Eflin coming into the season, we would have called that probably an even matchup. Right. Now it probably favors Lugo. I don't know. I think it's more even than we, than people want to admit.

Right. Cause you think there's some recency bias kind of cooked into how well Lugo pitched this year? Yeah. All right. What's the prediction? So do you think the Orioles can, can shake off their second half cobwebs and take care of business at home? I thought that the Orioles and Royals had played before recently, no, early in the season. And that was when the Orioles were cooking. They've won a game nine to seven. Corbin burns over Cole Reagan's nine to seven.

That's exactly how you'd expect that game to play out. After I just said it's going to be two to one. Yeah. So, anyway, I'm, I wanted to pick an upset because upset happened and especially in the wildcard round. But I just I think that the upset I'm picking is picking the Orioles despite all the negativity around this team. It feels like an upset to me for them to win some way. I don't think it is. I think the main reason is I just, I don't trust the Royals bats to find a way

to get enough runs across the board against upper tier teams. I think if it turns into a slugfest that favors the Orioles, right? I think if it's a dual, it's still close enough where I'm not just going to abandon a team that I thought was one of the three, four best teams in baseball six months ago. Maybe that means I'm stubborn, but I think a lot of that quality is still there. I think the question about the bullpen boils back down to this. Can you go on a command heater?

That is it. That's what I put in the preview. I was like, if they could just get a good stretch command wise, then this, it's going to look a lot better. But is that real? Can command be streaky in a good way like that? Or you just, you're just locked in for a few weeks? I think the numbers suggest that it is, this is how I think the numbers suggest that that's true.

Uh, command numbers are less predictive. Which means that they go in and out. And it takes a larger sample to know someone's actual command. So I think command is one of those things where, you know, if things are finicky and your hamstring hurts or whatever, you can't necessarily put the ball exactly where you want to put it. There's another thing I think of is John Smoltz always thought that, I suggested this, so it's not like Smoltz came up with this,

but we had him on the pod and I said, you know, I always had this thought that you were the best postseason pitcher on the Braves because you were a power pitcher and that was like, that was, that lent itself better to, you know, October baseball than the finesse that the Glavin and Maddox were using. Uh, and he was like, I agree. But he brought up the fact that there is a postseason velocity bump on the level of one or two miles per hour. And, um, that pitchers that are based on, on command may not necessarily, you

know, then be commanding it as well, because now it's a mile per hour faster and it's not necessarily going exactly where you expect it to. Whereas power pitchers are more just like, oh yeah, you know, I just throw hard anyway, so maybe, maybe, maybe there's something to that. You've got the power pitchers going into October, they get an extra, they extra tick and they just throw it down the middle and you know, they don't get as punished for it. I suppose that's a possibility.

Now, you were kind of rolling your eyes. I love that you gave John Smoltz an open faced compliment sandwich. And he just, just gulped it down. He's like, yeah, I am. Thank you. That was delicious. There's a couple of other things that are going on, though, with these teams that I want to just dig into for a sec.

Does having an elite defense give you any sort of edge in the playoffs, or does it not matter because in the sense that the samples get so small that your greatness for 162 games kind of gets washed away. Right. It's a new season. I've wondered at times if we underrate defense come postseason time. I wonder if we've overrated.

I've kind of gone back and forth on this for a long time. Does that does that give you something to cling to if you're a Royals fan that they play phenomenal defense and they seemingly are less likely to give away outs or to extend innings for their pitching staff by making mistakes? What I found when I took the top 20% of all postseason teams by wins and losses, right? And compared them to the league average postseason team. I found that the, uh, top 20% were significantly better defensively

than the, than the average postseason team. There was a difference. Okay. So they had 3.6 war, uh, of defensive value and the average postseason team at 2.6. That's a whole win when it comes to pitching. Uh, they had less war from their pitching than the average postseason team, the top 20% did, and they had 29 war from their hitting and 26 was the average. So I still think that, you know, having a good lineup is actually what I

want the most in the postseason. Uh, but it is interesting that the top 20% of all postseason teams had better defensive war, um, and worse pitching war. So, you know, that kind of splits the difference for the Royals a little bit. Yeah. Cause the, the, for the royals a little bit. Yeah. Cause the, the, the hitting is bad news for them, but I do think the defense matters and I think that it really is, it's one of those things where in the post season, the ball bounces, you know, it is a moment of chaos anyway.

And defense, what it does is it just puts you in a better position to not let that bounce the ball bounce the wrong way. You know, not let that one little thing steamroll, you know, one, one bad defensive play can cost you a game and that can be why you're out of the postseason. The other narrative, I think around the AL side of the bracket is that all roads to the World Series this year go through the Bronx, right? So you're taking the Orioles over the Royals. I imagine if the Yankees could choose their opponent for the ALDS, they would happily choose the Royals instead of the Orioles, because the Orioles have been a bit of a problem for the Yankees, right?

They went 5-8 against the Orioles in the regular season this year. The Yankees do tick that box this year in particular of having the elite of the elite offense. We've talked about the historically great duo season from Judge and Soto, and we've wondered more recently if they've been able to, with guys coming back from injury, the jazz chism trade, some of the changes that have taken place, if they've been able to know, the jas-chism trade, some of the changes that have taken place if they've been able to fix some of the warts in that secondary wave behind Judge and Soto. And I generally think they have. I think this is a more complete lineup today than it was three months ago. And I think that's the Yankee status as the favorites in the A.L. right now seems actually very justified to me.

the favorites in the AL right now, seems actually very justified to me. Yeah, I mean, Gleyber Torres has refound it, which I think is pretty important. And then Jazz Chisholm, I think, it makes it a good foursome. Anthony Volpe has a 29 WRC plus in the last month. Austin Wells is down to 31.

Anthony Rizzo's hurt. So, uh, Stanton though has at least shown his walks in power, uh, and has been a big, big average. So I'll give them, uh, five, uh, two of the best hitters of all time. That helps. Uh, three, uh, good hitters, three good to above average hitters, uh, behind them. Um, I suppose, you know, I don't know if I fully agree with you. Wells though can run into one, so he's not a terrible one.

And then, you know, Volpe is prone to some stretches. So if he can just get on one that, that changes things, but, that changes things. But I think it's a top heavy lineup. I still take the Astros surrounding squad over those guys. Okay, so you're doing that with the assumption of Jordan Alvarez playing at least by then, even if he's not playing in the wild card round too, right? Other part of that though, that I think is kind of interesting is yeah, the last

30 days from Wells, especially, haven't been good along with Volpe, but pulling back to just the second half Wells, I think has become a very important player for them because of the value he brings behind the plate. But also he does have the ability to hit for some power. He doesn't have as much swing and miss as I would have expected for this stage of his career. I like a lot of the things he's done this year. It's a 113 WRC plus for the second half as a whole. So even though the last 30 days have been rough, the more recent larger body of work is still very good. The question also I think for a lot of people is

Dominguez versus Verdugo, who's actually in the lineup in the playoffs. Once we get to that DS round, they're not really giving us an answer on that one. They're not tipping their hands at all, but 73 played appearances for Alex Verdugo in the last 30 days, 63 for Dominguez. Yeah. And it's been a lot of talk about Dominguez as defense in left field. Talk from the actual coaching staff. No, no, I'm talking rabble rousing Yankees Twitter.

I mean, I think Yankees Twitter still would rather have Dominguez if I'm guessing the vibes there. That's that's the impression I've been getting. So the defense is a complaint, but it's also not a wish for for two code to be out there. Uh, and I think we, I think they like the fact that Verdugo makes contact. I mean, the, you know, Chisholm in the last 30 days, but he's, he's not a great contact wizard.

So really, you know, if you think about the guys who make contact on this team, it's Gleyver Torres and Alex Verdugo. And that's about it. I'm not saying that they're terrible swing in this team. I'm just saying like, you know, if you're looking at who's, who can get me a single, who can put the ball in play when I really need to, it's Verdugo and Torres. Well, you're setting the threshold like pretty tight. I mean, judge has a 24.3% K rate this year, but like. Come on.

Low average. I'm looking at guys who are above, who are above average, you know, the strikeout rate better than Soto. Come on. Like. Like they, it's still, it's still pretty darn good overall, even in terms of swing and miss, but that's like, if that's your biggest question about your lineup, going into your first playoff series,

like that's pretty good situation to be in. I'm only just making, I'm just saying why, why they're even trying Verdugo, you know, why the, Yeah, like why they won't just flip it. Yeah, cause, cause I, I just, I think Jason doesn't make as much contact as Verdugo and it's like, they're just like, you know, if they're both not going to be great out there,

then we just want the guy who might put the ball in play when we need them to, you know, if they're both not going to be great out there, then we just want the guy who might put the ball in play when we need him to, you know. Sure. Flipping it back over to Cleveland just for a minute. Cause I didn't know if we'd have enough time today to really get into this, but I think it's interesting that they've really changed the lineup in a way where it's still like league average, but at least they're getting to more power. Right. I think the balance is such that they are a more dangerous lineup as they are

built now than they have been built in recent post-seasons because they still have a lot of swing and miss, but they still have, they have a few more guys that can do damage with the long ball, right? That feels a little better going into this October. Yeah. I like John Kinski and Noel playing. I like Kyle Manzardo playing. These are guys that can hit one out for you and they have in big moments. So that just gives me a feeling that like, Lane Thomas can hit one out.

So between Jose Ramirez, Josh Naylor, Noel, Manzardo and Thomas, you know, most nights you have more power threats in the lineup. They're going to be excellent defensively. And they make a lot of contact. So, you know, their worst, their worst, the worst part of the lineup looks a lot more like the Royals part, but it's a better lineup overall. The other part of it is that a few of those guys are still young guys that you can project a little more growth onto.

I think some of the Royals bottom tier guys, Adam Frazier, Hunter Renfro, they're more of like what you see is what you get. That to me is the other sort of difference in the bottom half of their respective supporting cast. Like it's easier for me to talk myself into Bo Naylor getting hot and figuring some things out than it is for me to talk myself into Adam Frazier being a playoff hero. Now that I've said that, Adam Frazier

can do something just absolutely mind blowing at some point. It's gonna hit 450 for a two series. I am so sorry for bringing that upon all of us, but yeah, I mean, the two nice matchups here in the AL wild card round, those get underway on Tuesday. The good news is we will have a NL breakdown of those two matchups that will come out prior to those series getting underway on Tuesday. It's going to be tight because of the schedule is just a little bit tight with that doubleheader getting underway here as we sign off

for today's show. Be sure to subscribe to the Athletic if you haven't done so. TheAthletic.com slash rates and barrels. All the great in-depth playoff coverage is available for one low price, $2 a month. Gets you in the door. You can find Eno on Twitter at EnoSaris. You can find me at Deriff and Riper, find the pod at rates and barrels. That's going to do it for this episode of Rates and Barrels. We're back with you on Tuesday. Thanks for listening. Bye!