Rates & Barrels - Bullpen Breakdowns & Problems with High Fastballs

Episode Date: August 20, 2020

Eno and DVR discuss the stability (and lack thereof) in each team's closer situation, plus the changing outlook for Kyle Lewis, Keston Hiura and struggling with high fastballs, micro fantasy baseball, and more. Rundown1:23 Pickleball!5:21 Is It Too Early to Punt Saves?8:20 Stable Ninth-Inning Situations14:50 Predictable, But Not Entirely Stable Situations26:22 Picking a Direction: Do You Trust Taylor Rogers & Brad Hand?37:52 Cover Your Eyes & Ears — The Unstable Situations; Faith Restored in Kimbrel?47:15 Has Our Kyle Lewis Outlook Changed?51:12 What is the Long-Term Value of J.D. Martinez?59:48 Keston Hiura & Problems with High Fastballs67:58 Micro Fantasy Baseball? Follow Eno on Twitter: @enosarrisFollow DVR on Twitter: @DerekVanRiperE-mail: [e-mail] Get 40% off a subscription to The Athletic: theathletic.com/ratesandbarrels Interested in picking up a Dugout Mug? Go to dugoutmugs.com/TheAthletic and use promo code “MLB30" for 30% off your first purchase! Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Welcome to Rates and Barrels, episode number 127. It's Thursday, August 20th. Derek Van Riper here with Eno Saris on this episode. It's bullpen madness. We'll take a look at every bullpen in the league and discuss the stability of who is getting those save opportunities and where you might turn if you're looking for some fallback options for saves. We'll also discuss a pressing strategy question. If you don't have quality saves already on your roster, is it time to actually think about punting the category in this shortened season? Got some great questions in the mailbag. One about Kyle Lewis. Good question about JD Martinez, which might apply to some other struggling guys with really nice track records. Question about Keston Hira and an idea for a single team fantasy league, almost like a micro

league, which is kind of a cool idea. So we'll see if we can shed some light on how that could work as we roll through this episode. Eno, happy Thursday. How are things going for you today? It's going good. Ready for the weekend again. A little beer and grilling, you know, staying at home kind of weekend. Been a lot of that in the last few months. Yeah, I played pickleball for the first time in almost six months. What is pickleball? You didn't play that in gym class?

It's like a small flat paddle. It's probably about the size of a racquetball racket, but it's like a composite paddle. And then it's a plastic, kind of a wiffle ball. Instead of just holes in the top, it's got holes throughout. So it's about the size of a tennis ball. And it slows down a lot because of just holes in the top, it's got holes throughout. So it's about the size of a tennis ball. And it slows down a lot because of the holes. And it's played on a court that's about the size of the service area of a tennis court. So it's about half as long and about only two-thirds as wide as a tennis court.

I think I would call that like racquetball. Is that different from racquetball? Yeah, the racquetball is inside with the walls. Paddle tennis is what some people call it, but they play with an actual tennis ball hole. Yes, paddle tennis. You don't play with a tennis ball. What do you play with? It's a plastic wiffle ball. It looks... What?

It's not like a white wiffle ball that you'd play in a wiffle ball baseball league with. It's got even holes throughout, but it's a little bit bigger. It's about the same size. What? Fastest growing sport in America. What? Yeah but it's a little bit bigger, about the same size. What? Fastest growing sport in America. What? Yeah, it's real.

My mind is blown, dude. My mind is blown. So when you hit it, you can do weird things with it? Like you can kind of whiffle it? Oh, it spins like crazy, yeah. The ball dives a lot, and it's really kind of a finesse game. So you're trying, yeah, you're almost like ping pong, where you're trying trying to put spin on it yeah and a lot of times like doubles is a lot more common so there's a short part of the court it's called the kitchen and you can't get into the

kitchen unless the ball bounces in there first so you can't like just get up to the net and smash everything you have to be a couple feet off the net so it's a really good game because it kind of neutralizes skill like if you took four people who could play tennis together who are all at different skill levels and it's kind of lopsided and you put them on a pickleball court any combination of two might be able to beat the other two just because you know pace gets reduced i love how you still brought your like fantasy analysis to pickleball there i wanted to talk about spin efficiency last night while I was serving the ball. Everyone's looking at me like, what's wrong with you?

That's great. Did you win? Yeah, I think I came away before we played four or five different matches. At least three and two. It's kind of fun. If you have an odd number, you can play like a cutthroat game where you play one single player against two, and you can only score when

you're playing by yourself, and then just rotate serve. So if you lose a point when you're serving, you go play doubles with somebody else, someone else comes around. There's lots of little wrinkles and fun ways to play. Is this a mid-coast thing? Is this a middle-of-the-country thing? I think it's an everywhere thing. I think it's bigger in the warm weather states i think in texas and florida i mean i think i think this previously was a game that retirees played and somebody visited grandma or grandpa and got roped into playing and was like no this is actually cool like we should we should play this and everyone who tries it kind of likes it. So it's interesting because I started playing indoors in the winter. And it was at an indoor tennis facility where they took a couple courts and made smaller pickleball courts on them.

And, yeah, outdoor facility I played at last night actually had six dedicated pickleball courts. Oh, my goodness. It was amazing. It was one of the nicest facilities I've ever seen. Alto Pickleball Club. Join. Blindly join. It's nearby.

No, it's real. It's everywhere. Mitchell Park. Wow. All right. Join the USAPA. I don't know if you could join that. Oh, I love it.

Yeah. All right. Love it. All right. The Pickleball PSA is over. They didn't even pay me for that. That was a genuine endorsement of the sport. So check it out.

If you got a league happening near you or just find some friends and try it. Fantasy Pickleball. I'm here for it. I'll be the first one in on Fantasy Pickleball. So let's talk about bullpens. And I want to start with the strategy question. If you don't have many saves or if you don't have any saves right now, are we far enough into this shortened season where you'd say, I'm done throwing fab at the problem.

I'm just going to go heavier with starting pitchers, and I'm going to punt the category. Because to me, it feels like we've reached that point. Are you comfortable letting the category go now that we're kind of a third of the way into this season no not necessarily because there's so many injuries and we just saw the first established closer go down uh with a year-long injury in kirby yates and i just feel like there's always a chance to get off the bottom in saves. It's easier to get off the bottom. And I'm not talking about you're going to get all the way back to the top and get a ton of points, but

in Roto Leagues in particular, there's always points to be gained. You know what I mean? And I think that it's more likely that you could get a benefit of three or four points out of the saves category than zero. And especially since just pitching in general is so volatile. Let's say you say, OK, I'm going to go heavy on pitching and I'm going to throw in like Tyler Molle and, you know, these other guys that would normally be on my bench and they're just always going to start. be in my bench and they're just always going to start like do you like how confident are you about those guys that are ranked starting pitchers that are ranked like sort of 60 through 80 that's the kind of guys you'd be putting in instead of your relievers right um you wouldn't be putting in like a top end pitcher so because of that sort of inter interlocking risk that comes with giving up on

three or four saves points that you can have and putting in lesser starting pitchers, I'm not that big of a fan. I think that we'll see a season-ending injury to another closer at least, and we've seen a fair enough of volatility. The only thing I will say about the saves situation it does, it does seem to be solidifying a little bit like even from tuesday tuesday we were talking about you know doing this bullpen segment and now i'm looking at the bullpen situation i'm like wow like it there's not as much opportunity here like there's not like there was one point like eight relievers i was trying to choose between in terms of like prospecting right now i feel like there's maybe three or four or five, and we'll get to them. But I don't think there's actually as much imbroglio.

Is that even the right term? But there's not as much upheaval. There we go, in the closer chart right now. Yeah, so I broke every team situation into three groups. There are stable situations. There are unstable situations. Yeah, so I broke every team situation into three groups. There are stable situations, there are unstable situations, and then there's the which direction question mark, which gets sandwiched right in the middle. And you could probably argue that those are stable or unstable based on how you feel about the particular pitchers involved. The stable situations, I think, are mostly ones we expected to be stable, at least at the top. Josh Hader's been great as the Brewers' closer. I think the only thing that's really been weird about the Brewers is that Corey Knable hasn't looked like himself. His velo's still down. And really, it's been David Phelps working as the primary setup guy in front of Josh Hader and Devin Williams looking like the next next great brewers reliever developed in that system his change-up is just nasty right now he looks like he's the guy that if hater were to get hurt

he might actually leapfrog phelps and take over that job but i don't know if there's a whole lot there you can do outside of like 15 plus team leagues where your short relievers who don't close are a little bit more rosterable or holds leagues of course there's a big bump for williams he's probably scooped up there but the yates situation i put san diego in the stable boat because i feel like with drew pomeranz like they have it figured out i know cal quantrell got a save earlier this week but i think that was more about matchups i don't think that's really going to be part of what they're doing going forward. Am I

right to believe that Drew Pomeranz is just simply the guy? I know we've kind of waxed poetic about how good he's been as a reliever, but do you see him sharing the role, maybe the way that Taylor Rogers does in Minnesota, or do you see him just being the guy nine times out of ten for the Padres?

Yeah, I think Pomeranz is the guy. It's a little bit awkward because he's a lefty, but they have some, what I would call, kind of roster flexibility with their starting and relieving staff in that Adrian Morihan is a lefty. He's up. I like it. Yeah, and he's starting, but he's relieved in the past,

and he throws really hard. I could see him, and even with the start, it was three innings, so I could see him still fitting into that bullpen, which needs more help right now. And with Matt Strom, they have another lefty. Is Tim Hill a lefty? Yeah, he is.

So they got three lefties. So I think they can do a lefty closer. It's fine. They almost need a power righty, and that's why you saw the one save from Kyle Quantrill, just a little bit of trouble, and Quantrill came in to finish it. People are pounding the door to get Quantrill in the starting rotation. I mean, it's really, yes, I think the closer situation is the most stable part of this.

Deciding who's going to be the fifth starter and who's going to be the setup man, I think is a lot harder because Pagan has struggled. Stammen has struggled. Quantrill could be a good setup man, but he could also be their fifth starter. Patino has come in and he had okay control, command of some of his pitches, but overall I would say just a lack of command did him in. So I don't think he can right now be the fifth starter or the setup guy. And we're still waiting on the Gore call up. So what would you do if it was your team? I think I would

put Quantrill in as the fifth starter, Pitino on the back end of the bullpen, and maybe do like Morihan, Pagan, Stammen, Pomerantz, and Strom as my big relievers. It's a lot of lefties. I would have Gore in the rotation right now. I tried that in the simulation we did, and it didn't go well in the sim, but that doesn't mean it won't work in real life.

But I think they should take that chance for a few starts, see how it goes, and continue his development. I think we talked about it with the Tigers. It's important to get the development right with top-end pitching prospects, getting those opportunities, not having them go stale at the alternate site, to me, that's worth it. And I think they have the depth

where they could do a tandem thing. If they really don't want Gore to go through the lineup more than twice... Gore Patino is an interesting tandem. I mean, that's righty-lefty. Holy cow. I mean, that's nasty.

If that's what it comes down to, if you're saying, hey, we like these guys, we just don't think the secondaries are consistent enough for them to get big league hitters out a third time through the order, okay, great. Let them each go three and change or four and change, and that pretty much covers a game and gives the rest of your bullpen a rest on days when that works. Yeah, I don't think that necessarily Command Plus is a fait accompli at 113 pitches in. But I will mention that Patino's Command Plus on the slider and fastball,

well, the slider was 90, the fastball was 78, and the changeup was 75. So that's really wild. That's a problem. It is a problem, but it might become less of a problem if you take the changeup out of the equation. And maybe then you've got a guy who has 90 and 85 command of his fastball and slider, and they are still nasty, I mean, in terms of velocity and spin and just movement.

So Patino might end up being your setup man, and then Quantrill could actually be your piggyback with Gore and your kind of long reliever. That is a fairly likely outcome, but I guess they're going to keep running Morahan out there as he's doing well. There's some moving parts, but I think of you know who's the best reliever who should be who should be the closer it's fairly clear yeah we talked too much pomerantz is the closer let's move on liam hendricks is really good in oakland that situation is stable uh he's basically just picked up right where he left off last year so not much drama in that spot you know kenley jansen went the drive line looks like a vintage version of himself right now things are new slider movie

for him yeah like that slider you get the yankees with aroldis chapman coming back from the il just as zach britain goes on the il britain was great he was the clear-cut replacement while he was out and now he's unavailable when chapman comes back so i think that's one of the the cleanest possible transitions really so i think the yankees are stable uh i think the top five that we talked about like those are all good situations that are stable the next batch of stable ones are a little more in the if we were grading these like on a one to five scale and the situations we talked about were fives being the most stable these are more like threes and fours but the reds ricela glacius really isn't getting pushed for opportunities to this point. He looks like he's at least going to get you saves, even if it's not going to be with elite strikeout rates and ratios. Nick Anderson in Tampa Bay is sharing some of the opportunities. But if you drafted him around that pick 120 mark, which is where he was going in July, nine and a third scoreless innings, 15Ks. He's got three saves now on the season.

I know he's sharing some opportunities, but to me, that's stable. That's a guy you're starting every week and you feel really good about it. Yeah, I just wanted to share a note about Iglesias. One of the things that I think has helped him is that he's focused his repertoire. He's throwing fewer pitches and he's also throwing from fewer arm angles. He used to throw from three different arm angles. I know to throw from like three different arm angles, and I know that's good for funk, but I think for a reliever, you don't want to have that much to deal with, that much to work with in terms of if your command goes a little bit off.

And then I think that's how he's gotten in trouble in the past. So in terms of like velocity and stuff and strikeout rates and stuff, I think he's relatively stable. I mean, even as there's going to be a little bit of walk rate and maybe some homer rate regression, I think this new approach is better for his command and better for his outcomes in the end. I think he's going to hold on to that all year. So, you know, Tampa, Nick Amson has come back on. And I've always thought he had great stuff. I still think he's going to lose save opportunities going forward,

not because of his quality, like how good he is, just because of how Tampa does things. It's just a mess trying to figure out who else gets them. Diego Castillo is a guy that I've been trying to roster a few places in deeper leagues hoping to get the occasional save. He's not even getting holds. He's not even getting holds. They're using him so – yes, they're using him as a fireman,

and he's a very good pitcher, and he's really important for them, but we don't have a stat that basically quantifies, and I think the Rays are all over that, but we don't have a stat that quantifies what why what he's doing that's so good you know like it doesn't even end up being holds so um i like dio castillo as an sprp in those leagues where it matters and but at this point i'm only using him i guess for like ratios like he's not even giving me holds or anything. It's confounding. Alvarado, is he hurt now?

I always thought he would be a part of that. But Beeks as a lefty and Chaz Rowe as a weirdo. No, he's got, I mean, this very affectionately he's got that kind of clory kluber-esque huge frisbee slider and i'm sure that they have some idea of like which hitters can just absolutely not hit that pitch you know and um that's why he has a save i think and so i think um you know row and beakseks will steal a few saves from Anderson. Yeah, Rowe is pretty nasty with that slider. Some other interesting kind of stable situations right now.

I'd put Alex Colomay in that boat, even though I still don't think he's great. He's the guy. I don't understand it. I don't understand it. I don't understand it. Relievers, man. Relievers. Just have to breathe. Yeah.

The rest of this group is going to bother you. We're not even on to the unstable situations yet. It's going to get worse. His velocity is down. He's throwing 77% cutters. He's striking out 22% of batters. That's like way below average for a closer. Yeah.

Should not be getting saves, but does get saves. And like a zero frigging ERA. Are you kidding me? Okay. Well, I was all over Aaron Bummer in deeper leagues. I thought this was a job that would change hands early in the season bummers on the il right now so that's frustrating he's starting to throw against a biceps injury for him so he's more of a drop and redraft

yeah evan marshall looks like a um that's like evan marshall looks like the the guy of columbia stumbles but i think it'd have to be a fairly significant three or four game stumble at this point because he's built up a fair amount of goodwill. Yeah, he's just the guy they use in that situation, even with his flaws. Brandon Workman was going around the same spot as Columet back during draft season.

I think I have absolutely no exposure to brandon workman this season four for four seems pretty bad he might be traded like he might be the kind of guy that ends up in a contending team's bullpen before the end of the season they're running out of time with him i mean he's uh he's been in the red sox for six years, a free agent next year, I think, or after 2021. Anyway, yeah, he doesn't have much team control left, and the whiff rate is down. The velocity is down. He stopped throwing the fastball as much, and he's throwing the curveball an amazing 46% of the time,

so he's kind of Matt Barnes-ing light, and amazing 46% of the time. So he's kind of Matt Barnes-ing light. And he's got that wicked bad walk rate. He's keeping the homers down, but in small samples, with the homer problem before that, I just don't necessarily believe he's just figured out how to suppress home runs all of a sudden. So I could see him losing the job or being traded,

but I don't think that necessarily there's a guy in the Red Sox. I used to think it was Matt Barnes, but I don't know that there's necessarily a guy in the Red Sox that is knocking the door down. Barnes seems to be less than the sum of his strikeouts and walks again or or just super wild so i like who do you who would you have if i'm speculating there yeah i think it's barns because of the skills but it's mostly because there's a lack of quality alternatives too like who do you actually like other than barnes like

i don't like anybody in that pen i don't like anyone in that pitching staff it's one of the worst pitching staffs that a rich team has ever built it really is you know what's funny is watching the the waiver wire and like literally every day i think it i think there's like a seven-day streak right now. The Red Sox claim somebody off the wire. Yep. They're trying, trying to churn over some spots and find some solutions to chew up some innings effectively. So Workman is stable in that when the Red Sox get a save chance, we're very confident he's going to get it. In terms of his skills and in terms of staying there a little less stable.

So I just want to clarify what I meant by putting him in this group. Archie Bradley pitching pretty well. Ratios aren't great, but 11 to 3 strikeout to walk, 6 for 7 in save chances. Kind of safe in terms of just getting chances. I don't think there's a whole lot to get excited about in that bullpen either. When I look at the D-backs, I don't see an obvious, this guy should be closing instead of Archie Bradley set of skills with anybody. Yeah, I would say that I kind of like Kevin Ginkle going into the season, and he's got an extra couple ticks on the fastball, which is fun,

but he's seemingly lost control of that situation. And the guys with holds, like Chafin and Alex Young, the former starter, and Junior Guerra. I like Junior Guerra, actually. and Junior Guerra. I like Junior Guerra, actually. I would say that Junior Guerra is the guy that I would pick up

if I was looking for the next closer. However, Bradley seems fairly safe, yeah. It'd be like a 20-team league or something for me to stash Guerra, only because the K rate's also really low with him, even when he's pitching pretty well. The other situation that I think is stable

right now, Joe Jimenez, one of our favorites on this show. Five for six. Ratios are kind of a mixed bag. ERA's a little high, but the whip is good. I think the other guy that keeps coming up in conversations, anytime I get a question about the Tigers' bullpen, if it's not about Joe Jimenez, it's

about Gregory Soto and whether or not he's viable long term as a possible late inning reliever yeah and I think there's a slight possibility of Jimenez trade the problem with that is that the Tigers well I guess 9 and 13 they're probably I was trying to figure out who were sellers, and there's only going to be like five sellers. There's going to be the Red Sox, and it might be awkward for them for selling because are they going to sell Xander Bogarts? No, I don't think so.

I think it's too early for that. They're going to only sell veteran bats. Nobody really wants any of their arms. So all they have to sell are maybe workmen and a Jose Peraza type, I guess. Maybe Mitch Moreland or something. But they don't have that much to sell. The other sellers are the Pirates, Royals, Tigers, Mariners, and Giants. And that's it, I think.

Yeah, not a lot of good players on those teams that are going to be moved. That too, yeah. Like, what do you want from those sellers? But anyway, so Joe Jimenez, if he is on the, like, if he becomes available, might be, I guess, otherwise, like Keone Kela. But Keone but Keone Kayla a has just started to pitch and b comes with a history you know I think it's fair to say he comes with a history you know uh he's started literally started fights on the last two teams he's been on um so I think it's fair to bring that up I don't like to bring up makeup stuff like that because I you I, you know, I don't know every of these, I don't know.

I've never hung out with these players outside. I, you know, there's, they only give me the media face. So, um, I, but, but just look at the facts. Keone Kayla comes with more baggage, I think, than Jimenez. So, um, you know, if the Tigers want to make Jimenez available, I think he might be the best reliever on the market. Am I missing somebody? I don't think so. I mean, trevor rosenthal is okay but rosenthal and kennedy both i guess are good

but are they that much better than kella i don't think so yeah so uh and i do think that gregory soto has cemented himself as uh the obvious next i know the buck farmer has a smaller era um and i guess maybe he could move into it first in order to keep Soto cheaper. But I think in terms of quality and then just usage, I mean, Soto's been used a fair amount. You know, they like him. They use him a lot, and he's only really blown up once. So I think Soto's the guy if he goes. Let's pick a direction for this next group.

Minnesota, Taylor Rodgers, rough outing against the Brewers two nights ago. Let's pick a direction for this next group. Minnesota, Taylor Rodgers, rough outing against the Brewers two nights ago. He's had a couple of bumps along the way. The underlying skills still look good. Over 11 Ks per nine. He's not really walking guys. Doesn't have a big home run issue. I think he's just had a little bit of early season bad luck.

I don't really see a major flaw in Rodgers. I think the one thing people are worried about is that Sergio Romo comes in and gets some chances based on matchups and it's it's the rays of occasion i mean they literally have a couple guys in the front office from the rays and it just looks like a very similar situation where you know uh depending on usage depending on what they've seen, Trevor May has a save, and Sergio Romo comes in with the Chaz Rowe frisbee slider, right? I mean, it's like if there were two guys more similar, I wouldn't be able to come up with them. The only difference is that Chaz Rowe throws harder.

But Romo has that big old frisbee slider, and there's got to be some batters that just cannot handle that. If it's like three righties in a row, Romo will come out there and frisbee them to death. And so sometimes he'll get the save. And that makes Romo worth owning, but I don't think it makes Taylor Rodgers worth dropping or trading. Right. I think Rodgers is a very good reliever who gets like 65% to 70% of the saves instead of 95%.

So adjust accordingly there. But Romo getting a third of those opportunities is probably rosterable in leagues with at least 12 teams i mean i think smaller than that maybe it gets a little bit tricky because there's always bottom tier closers available on the wire of eight and ten team mixed leagues how about brad hand i know you didn't really like him coming into the season i think velocity dropping at the end of last season was a big part of the reason why. He's going slider over fastball in terms of usage so far this year. He's had a couple of meltdowns.

James Karinczak was kind of flirting with taking the job at one point. But Hand's got six saves. The Ks have been there, even though the walk rate is up. What do you make of Hand based on what you're seeing early on this season? I would not acquire him. I think selling him would be difficult with that ERA. And so I just think he's one of those close your nose and hold. Karinczak is close enough to being ownable for the occasional save and the incredible strikeout rate.

I mean just incredible. 24 strikeouts in 12 and 2 thirds. That's useful. it's useful that's useful as they say and uh a zero zero an era that starts with zero i think uh i don't corinne shack but i don't think that i would like sort of breathlessly go after contract or spend a ton of fab on them or anything because maybe... You know who the Indians... You know what the Indians were first at? Just giving a dude the closer role. Do you remember Joe Borowski?

I think Joe Borowski is a podcast favorite at this point. He's your favorite, not one of mine. I think they may just let Brad Hand Joe Borowski this one. I don't think that he's a better... I think there are probably two or three better pitchers on the roster right now. Maybe that's not fair anymore. Klaas is gone.

At least one, for sure, with Karinczak. I mean, Karinczak has more strikeouts than Jose Barrios this season. That's pretty cool. Yeah, that's pretty amazing. So I think they'll just let that happen. Karinczak will be the fireman, basically, who gets the heart of the order out in the seventh or eighth, and Brad Hand will just come on and finish him off.

Then it won't look good all the time. I'm just laughing. Karinczak has more strikeouts than Blake Snell. Karinczak has more strikeouts than Frankie Montas. Wow. Yeah, I mean, it's not a landslide, but it's just worth noting. That's how much he's giving you in that category.

He's keeping pace with starters that we really like. And in a season where no one's going to get you a ton of wins, it's even better to rush. So that's the thing you could do if you weren't going to spend fab on closers, right? You could try to get Karinczak types. Yeah, bully strikeouts. And there are a ton of Karinczaks to go around,

but I mentioned Devin Williams a little earlier. He's missing a ton of bats. You'd be surprised at the number of relievers who, if they're pushing a 13, 14, 15 Ks per nine number, and they're getting used in basically every other game, that's going to get you pretty far in that category. Yeah, yeah. So that is an option for people who are way out.

And in head-to-head, I think I give it the enthusiastic thumbs up. You know, like I'm all over that situation in head-to-head because punting is a great strategy in head-to-head. And, you know, I guess we should have learned in the offseason, quote-unquote should have, from our, you know, from our, what was the game called that we did? The GOAT game? Yeah, the GOAT, Project GOAT. That punting saves is a viable option in Roto.

I just, I want points in every category that I can get. I guess, I don't know if that makes me a worse player or whatever. But here are relievers with more than 18 strikeouts that you would be able to pick up. Peter Fairbanks might even get you a save sometimes. Scott Barlow has a save. It's not like Trevor Rosenthal doesn't blow up. Jonathan Hernandez, good for wins

because they've been using him in like the seventh and sixth. I like Jonathan Hernandez. What is Freddy Peralta? What is he? He's a multi-inning reliever. Okay. Kind of a follower sometimes. A bit of a fireman, long fireman guy guy uh devin

williams as you mentioned josh stonemont oh the stuff is really really nice i think if you're in a dynasty league he's a really good pickup uh for like sort of saves next year you know um and then And then Jay in the Beaks came up and Karin Czach. On the periphery was 17, Tanner Rainey. I'm not going to mention that guy. Chad Green wins and strikeouts, but maybe rostered at this point in a lot of leagues. So anyway, those are guys that can keep you abreast in strikeouts, probably push you ahead uh because people might be rostering uh relievers that are getting a much fewer strikeouts for their time on the on the bump got a few other which direction are these situations going names here i'll run

through all of them at once you let me know if anyone stands out as really safe. Hector Neris, who based on his draft day price should be safe. Rafael Montero, prior to giving up that walk-off Grand Slam last night to Manny Machado, was pitching really well since taking over that role. I thought Texas was pretty stable in the ninth inning with Montero. They probably still are. I think the Nats are stable. We just had the wrong guy back on draft day. It's not Sean Doolittle it's daniel hudson has had a couple of meltdowns though kind of interested to see if doolittle gets some of that velocity back we talked about kansas city

briefly a few moments ago trevor rosenthal has become the guy so that's a situation where we were just wrong about who was going to get saves at the beginning of the season it's not ian kennedy they're using a couple shares of rosenthal i mean really deep leagues where you're just like hey that guy used to be really good yeah seems like he's got a lot of it back at least early on will smith was being drafted ahead of mark melanson i think i've considered him as a difficult cut in recent weeks in some leagues because melanson keeps getting the saves. Melanson's not striking guys out though. I look at that situation and I think if we were playing 162, if we were four weeks in to a 26 week season, my desire to be patient with Will Smith would be greater. But because we're only looking at another five and a half weeks, I think Will Smith is a necessary drop in certain

instances where you just can't hold the non-closing reliever. Sometimes it works and your roster has either the bench spaces needed or even one active spot where you can kind of play around with the non-closer. In cases where you got a few injuries and you got some depth problems, that's where I think you have to at least think about letting Will Smith go. Yeah, I mean, right now, usage is king. That's one thing we've talked about. And the usage suggests that if Melanson goes down, and I would say he's one of the more, one of the less obvious shaky relievers because of that strikeout rate. Strikeouts are king, and you can't let the ball in play because that's lottery tickets for the other team. and play because that's lottery tickets for the other team.

But the usage suggests that if he loses the job, it becomes like a green mentor platoon, lefty-righty. They have the holds. They are the guys. Maybe Martin could sneak in there. Martin probably has – he doesn't quite have the same splits of a green and mentor. Green is like a roogie almost. You just don't want him to face lefties.

So Smith could sneak in there, and maybe it could be like a green-Smith situation. But there's no clear, as much as I would say Mark Lanson is shakier than his 113 ERA, I don't see that there's a guy who's like breathing down his neck. So, and that's actually true of some of these situations where it almost matters more how obvious the replacement is. Because with Hector Neris, it's like, well, who else are they going to go to? Yeah, but that's kind of why I feel like he counts as more of a stable option than an unstable one,

even though he hasn't pitched all that well. And I think Brendan Kintzler is really stable in Miami. He's only three for three in save opportunities because they've missed a bunch of games, but he doesn't really have anybody pushing him right now either. Even though you're getting a low K rate, I think we know for the time being, if they have a save chance, Brandon Kintzler is the guy trotting out of the bullpen to try and convert it.

Yeah, I look up and down this, and I think maybe Tanner Rainey and Jonathan Hernandez, Jonathan Hernandez in Texas and Tanner Rainey in Washington are the only secondary guys that jump off the page as maybe pushing the guys in front of them. However, the guys in front of them are probably some of the better closers on this page, in this section, right? Like Daniel Hudson has mostly got it going on.

section, right? Like Daniel Hudson is, has got mostly got it going on. Um, and, uh, and Raphael Montero other than last night, I think, um, has looked really solid in that role. So I, uh, I know that, uh, you know, they've got options, but, but Daniel Hudson striking out 14 per nine, um, you know, and still throwing 96, I think he's fairly safe. Just a little home run issue in a couple outings. That's really been the blemish as it goes for him. The unstable situations. Here's what's going to make everyone cringe. Let's run through this list real quick. Houston with the Roberto Ozuna injury. Ryan Presley just hasn't pitched all that well yet. I think he can get there. I think he can be better than Roberto Ozuna. Ken Giles has been hurt.

Edwin Diaz lost the job early. He's pitched well without the job and now might be getting it back. So he's becoming interesting again. Hansel Robles lost his job, but now his velocity is back and Ty Buttrey can't strike anybody out. So that one looks like he could change hands again. Craig Kimbrell

got a save as part of a doubleheader on Wednesday. Giovanni Gallegos, yeah, that situation's complicated. He was away. The team was shut down. I think he's the most likely candidate to lead the St. Louis bullpen in saves when the season is over, but it could be an absolute mess getting there because of all the makeup doubleheaders. Colorado's been a total disaster. Wade Davis is hurt. Scott

Oberg is hurt. Jairo Diaz had the job and lost it. Now Daniel Bard is getting saves. That's a great story, but not something I really want to mess with in fantasy. And then these three situations, the ugliest of all. This is in the Colorado bucket as well. San

Francisco, Trevor Gott has four saves. Probably not the guy anymore. Baltimore, it's been Cole Sulzer this year, not Michael Givens. I don't think that's going to end well based on the underlying numbers. And in Seattle, Austin Adams hasn't been able to pitch. I thought he was going to be the guy because I thought his knee was going to be healthy. Taylor Williams has four saves and the underlying numbers actually look pretty good. So I would say of these bottom end unstable situations, Williams is the one reliever who kind of stands out to me as a guy that I'd be okay with as my second or third closer

if I was chasing saves. I think otherwise, Taylor Williams. Actually, you know, I think Solcer might ugly it out. So I actually think Solcer, Williams, Jairo Diaz, that meme where the lady looks and is like, hmm, hmm? That's how I feel about Jairo Diaz. With the other two, I'm just like, nope, not going to do it.

Got nothing going on for me. Solcer has a 15% swinging strike rate. I know the strikeout rate isn't necessarily there yet, but I also like that he's a three-pitch pitcher. It's kind of like the veteran who figured out, veteran leader who figured out he can't just blow it by everybody and he's going to put these three pitches together almost like a starter. I think Soler and Williams will make it to the finish line. I have no idea who will lead the Giants or Rockies in saves. I mean, Salmon got a – Sam Salmon got a Kapler mention the other day when we were – when he was asked who would be in the mix at the end of the game.

So if you want to prospect on somebody to take God's job, I'll take Sam Selman. The problem is he throws 90. 90, poo. He's like one of those, you know, throws sliders more often than he throws his fastball guys, which is, if you remember Luke Gregerson, you'll remember how just absolutely terrifying that is

to have your closer throw more sliders than fastballs. Even Romo, man, when he was like the closer, the capital C, there were just some games and some teams that either just threw a bunch of lefties up or just could hit him and you were just like oh god um but i think i think sam selman um could be a name to think about uh with the rockies man i guess jairo diazz is still the guy I'm looking at sometimes, but really holding my nose when I'm doing it. I think I might agree with you overall that I just don't want to deal with it. Daniel Bard has pitched well.

14K is against one walk. Scattering 13 hits over 12 innings hasn't allowed a home run yet. I mean, this is a guy that last pitched in the big leagues in 2013. Again, it's a great story. I hope it has a good ending. I really do. I just look at that and say, wow, Colorado closers. Hopefully I don't have to do it if I did.

I was on the Jairo Diaz train just a few weeks ago through the fab, Adam. I've been pretty disappointed with what we've got to this point. And I don't know if I ever really want to trust anybody in that situation because it so rarely so rarely works out i've been burned i've been burned i don't want to get burned again um yeah i just i just i don't buy that um bard is like figured something out magically i don't uh his release point is radically different than from before so maybe there's something going on with the lower release point um but that also means less ride and other things so i think a guy with a career walk rate like that who walked 6.5 per nine the last time he had a full slate is just a problem you know one thing that I have noticed and I did do this last week I put in the in the league where

I'm like trying to find saves and I have $80 fab out of a thousand left oh is that the the Carlson Adele league yes the Carlson Adele gambit oh i did uh i did uh successfully protest to have the trade deadline moved because i was like well at least with carlson adele i'll have someone to trade right and then i discovered that the trade deadline was august 2nd because nobody changed it but i successfully lobbied to have that change so phew i might be able to make a trade there. But one thing I did last week, and I should have told you all about it,

but I didn't think it was a big deal, was since I had so little money, I just put $2 or $3 on Kimbrel, Diaz, and Robles. And I wish I had gotten Kimbrel. But I got Robles, and as you mentioned, Robles' velocity is back, and I don't think Ty Buttrey is that much of an impediment for Robles getting his job back. In fact, they've been using Robles in the eighth and stuff,

so even usage suggests that Robles is the next one up if Buttrey stumbles, and I think he may not even take a stumble because Robles is up to 97 again. So I would say those three pitchers are all going to get their jobs back, which is going to be a really interesting thing because it seemed at some point that it was just like chaos everywhere in every bullpen. And if those guys get their jobs back, that means that really we lost Osuna to injury, Ken Giles to injury, and a couple guys were better than we thought.

Otherwise, it's been more predictable than a usual season almost. Is that crazy? Is that true? If Diaz, Kimbrel, and Robles get their jobs back, this season would almost be more predictable than a normal season. If all three of them get their jobs back, but I don't know. I think two out of three is more likely to happen and of the three i trust kimbrough the least i still really i i really don't think i was really impressed with the last outing from kimbrough uh he's changed his fastball

location he was throwing up and he got his velocity back. He was throwing 97s. I think Diaz actually makes me the most nervous. I can't figure out why he doesn't do it. It's command. He walked a guy with the bases loaded, dude. That means he can't... He can throw like 100. Why does he throw 100 slightly up in the middle of the zone? Yeah, guys can't hit that.

Outer third. But he can't even hit the outer third. It's pretty wild. So if I'm prospecting, okay, so you and I, think about it real quick. Order those three. Order them in your head. Number one for both of us is Robles. i'd go robles over ds ds over kimbrough i go robles kimbrough ds i think uh but i i i sound a little bit more positive that

all three will get their jobs back which is just a just a weird weird thing it's fun kimbrough's out there in a decent number of leagues a lot lot of frustrated Craig Kimbrel owners let him go in the last 10 days or so. By the way, if you're looking for a new mug, we have you covered. Dugout Mugs is a company that was started in a college baseball dugout, hence the name Dugout Mugs. They take the barrel of a baseball bat and turn it into a 12-ounce mug. I can't even look at the barrel of a bat on TV without wanting to drink something out of it. It's pretty crazy. Dugout Mugs are licensed by Major League Baseball

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mailbag today, so let's rip through these. First question is about Kyle Lewis. It comes from Joey. He wants to know, with a month's worth of games in the books, he was wondering if our overall outlook has changed for Kyle Lewis. He's got both Lewis and Luis Robert in the books. He was wondering if our overall outlook has changed for Kyle Lewis. He's got both Lewis and Luis Robert in the first year of six-year contracts in Dynasty and writes, they seem to be trending in opposite directions as far as future value goes. I wouldn't worry about Luis Robert being up and down. He was on fire to start the season. He's slumping right now.

He's a little banged up. Luis Robert's fine. And I think Kyle Lewis is going to do the same thing as Luis Robert because they both lack plus-hit tools. They're both guys who can wallop the ball, athletic. Lewis may have a better sense of where the zone is. If you look at his walk rates in the minors up and down, we may believe this improvement in walk rate more,

but both of them are going to be streaky, I think. And I don't want to sprain my shoulder giving myself a pat on the back, but I predicted Kyle Lewis would get the Rookie of the Year this year. It was a bold prediction because Robert is still in the catbird seat. But we saw that he could hit the ball really hard in some small samples. He's still hitting the ball really hard. And I even think that as he learns to lift the ball a little bit with that added selectivity that he's showing,

he doesn't have to necessarily make a mechanical change. He can just sort of focus on balls high in the zone that will go further when he touches them. So I think there's maybe a little bit more power left in there for Lewis, but he's proven himself already to be a capable defender. I think he'll move to the corners eventually. He plays some center field this year, but I think he's going to be a plus defensive corner outfielder with like a 330 OBP and like a 200 ISO. So there's actually, like if you look at his projections, that's better than his projections and better than his current power level in terms of ISO. So I think he won't be as lucky with balls in play, Lewis, but I do think that he'll end up being kind of like a 275, 330, 475 guy, 475 to 500.

That's a pretty good player, especially with good outfield defense. Yeah, you're pushing an 800 OPS with that. I think I like about Kyle Lewis, too, compared to what we saw at the end of last season. He is swinging a lot less at pitches outside the strike zone yeah swinging less in general so just showing a little more patience I think that's a good thing for him I think I mentioned this on under the radar on Wednesday night I saw him go the other way it must have been Tuesday night against the Dodgers or maybe it was Monday night but I don't think he's just all pull trying to yank everything to

hit home runs I think he's kind of got power all over the place and we've seen it both this season and in the brief call up last year like he can use the entire field he's gone the opposite way 33 of the time 30 percent oppo rates are legit that's legit oppo you know for sure so it's a nice approach overall he has that up and down the minors too so yeah uh you know the only thing that really held him back was a fair amount of knee injuries um you just you you look up and down his minor league thing you just see like what happened that year why did he only play that many games that year and that sort of thing so uh he pretty much lost half the 2018 season or a good portion of that um and the 2017 season he only got uh like 200 plate appearances too so

the story is mostly injury uh and now that he's healthy we're seeing what he can do so is he more of a keeper league dynasty league building block than a simple like high upside depth piece at this point yeah 25 years old you can you can get a good four or five years out of him even if he's a short peak guy yeah i'm with you i think he was in flyer mode late last season, but he's upgraded his status quite a bit with what he's done so far. Thanks a lot for the question, Joey. Next question comes from James A. He wants to know, what are your thoughts in the long-term value of J.D. Martinez,

the keeper in Dynasty League-centric? He read that the lack of in-game video has thrown off J.D.'s routine. But is there something more at play? No. You know, Joey Votto once said that the best lineup protection you can have is somebody on base in front of him. And I do think that Martinez is batting with fewer people on base. And that just means defenses can be more aggressive in how they play him because nobody has to cover a base.

And that just generally pitch mixes can be more aggressive because the catcher doesn't have the threat of not blocking the pitch, for example, and doing a pass ball that'll score a runner. So the more batters you have on base, the better. And the Red Sox offense isn't what it used to be with Mookie Betts up there. I'm not necessarily saying that no one's there to protect him because the line of protection with the batter behind you has been kind of, I would say, almost thoroughly debunked. But there is that concept of runners on base is good for you. So I think that's part of it.

The other part is a slightly slow start. His barrel rate is still good. But, you know, a little bit of exit velocity sloppage coming off there, but that's, you know, he's still pretty, he could still end up with some red ink on a stat cast page, is what I'm saying, you know, given a little more time, and the other thing I would say is his Dynasty Keeper League value is only going to go down from here. He's 32 years old. I think 35 is just the absolute maximum, even for a superstar and around 33,

34, you start to lose trade value. So he's kind of interesting because I could see JD going down a path that we've seen for Nelson Cruz for the last five years. Once he gets to his late thirties, like where he just keeps hitting, everyone keeps doubting him price comes down a little bit every year he probably becomes ut only at some point the next few years too and there he is just hitting rockets at age 38 like that could happen but you're you're

right about the trade value i kind of hinted at this on the last episode like you reach a certain point 32 is definitely in that range where you just don't get back what you should for a player who's as good as jd martinez is in a trade in dynasty anymore because a lot of dynasty league owners they're hanging on to prospects because they believe in the guys they drafted they believe in the guys they traded for and they don't want to be wrong to give up on a high ceiling or combination of high ceiling players only to have an old made card not turn out like a nelson cruz right i mean nelson cruz is more of an outlier most players don't age nearly that well long it's a long way of saying i actually like jd if i were competing

in a keeper dynasty league he'd be high on my list of players i'd be trying to trade for right now because he would come at more of a discount than usual he'd be discounted anyway and I think he's going to help you further into the future than the person trading him away is willing to acknowledge yeah for sure and I

erred I think that with you know three years left on his deal... Is that right? Is it three? Why do years mess me up like this? It's because you don't know

if things are like when they end. You know what I mean? Here's the deal. He's got this year and two more. He's a free agent in 2023, which means after 2022. I think he's tradable. I think someone could acquire him. It's got to be an AL.

It doesn't have to be an AL team if we think the DH is here to stay. But you also have two years left. I think it'll most likely be an AL team. Who could it be? The Rays don't have that money. The Yankees are kind of stacked in that situation like just hitters that can't play that that defense that well the twins have nelson cruz literally the indians have guys like that the white socks have guys like that the athletics

don't have the money the astros seem like willing to just sort of play the string out and the rangers are 10 and 13 yeah if an nl team were to do it and again you'd have to do it expecting the dh to be here to stay he'd actually fit for the brewers really well like they've been playing ben gamal in the outfield if they have the money braun comes off the books at the end of the season he basically makes what braun makes now oh and could he play some first base there's no long time first baseman right yeah you could probably try that they justin smoke was like a one-year deal right yep so maybe jd's more willing to play first base than braun is braun i don't think braun wants to play first base at all based on things will has said that would be a really fun trade

dude they need they need a corner bat that can come in and just mash and help bring up that offense so i would be a really fun trade i think i would like that one i guess the cardinals um yeah to replace marcello zuna basically they have a bunch of they have a bunch of outfielders but uh he could dh for them this year and then maybe they could figure something out next year. Yeah, but that's the one. I don't know if the Dodgers, you just have to mention them because they do stuff like this, but I just don't think they'll do it again. It's like, what do you get back in a trade for an all-bat,

not really an outfielder outfielder with money on the contract? But he could still earn more than that. He could still be a $40 million bat. He still has that. It's an argument against the trade because you won't get much back. And do they want to pay it down? They could do that. That's how the Brewers trade could happen, right?

They could pay down some of the deal and actually get a prospect. The problem is the Brewers don't really have prospects, like Bryce Tourang or something. You're not into Corey Ray? Is he still a prospect? Yeah, Bryce Tourang is one of their best prospects. Hedbert Perez, the J2 signing from last summer. Okay.

Alec Bettinger. Oh, Bettinger we liked as a pitcher i don't know the brewers seem to need to hold on their pitching so maybe maybe touring and the and the other guy if they get paid ray yeah no i i think cory ray is just not a prospect unfortunately he had a horrible year last year it's actually the one of the worst times this goes far beyond cory ray for him yeah if you had a down year last year. It's actually one of the worst times. This goes far beyond Corey Ray. For him, yeah. If you had a down year in the upper levels of the minor leagues last year,

and now you're stuck at the alternate site where they're doing the video exchange. At least some teams signed on for that. But even that, how do you look at a guy and go, oh, yeah, he figured it out. And he was hurt last year. But you still want the stats. You just want to see. As much as people say don You still want the stats. You just want to see how he's performing. Yeah, as much as people say don't look at the stats for minor leaguers,

every major league team will look at the stats, look at the major league equivalencies, look at how the projections have changed. Every team will look at the stats for minor leaguers. Yes, they'll include the scouting, but they will look at the stats. I mean, it's not... And without them, it's just sort of like, uh... And maybe not the stats that we see on Fangraphs.

Maybe they just look at the exit velocity and stuff like that. But they'll look at something. And that whole thing was really crazy. They're trading video and some stats now, but it's not every team. So it's like, can we know what those 20 teams are? Can we know who's not? Because the people who are not

trading stats are not going to be trading players. One would think, yeah. They are not going to be very active. Give us some clue about what was going to happen next week if we knew who was trading stats and who wasn't. But you know what? I've got to write something about

who should be traded and stuff for next week for the athletic. Maybe I'll ask around and see if anybody knows who's not trading stats. I mean, teams know that. So maybe somebody will tell me. Someone will tell you. Thanks for the question, James. So yeah, hold on to JD Martinez, especially in long-term leagues. And even buy him if you're contending.

I think he can help kind of put you over the top and help you in future years as well. Next question came from Andrew. He writes, I trust the Brewers fan to know the answer to this one, but given that we're one-third of the way through the season and Keston Hira has been horrific, all caps, is there any reason to hang on to him or cut bait now with the short season? I did pick up Robinson Cano while he was away,

so I have that as an immediate replacement. Now, I think Keston here, I had another home run yesterday off of a position player. Aria Adrianza was pitching. He's getting healthy. Yeah. So here's the problem with Keston here,

and I'm going to answer this question by asking you a question. He's struggling with high fastballs. If you look at the baseball savant heat maps, he just swings and misses at high fastballs a lot. Puts himself in bad counts. He strikes out more than you think because I think he's 0-1. He's got to be 0-1, like a top five hitter. Like he's just constantly 0-1. Constantly behind on the count.

He has power. He has speed. He doesn't walk a lot. There are definite flaws right now that he has to correct. So I'm not cutting him and playing Robinson Cano, who at this stage of his career,

I think is just a solid filler, plays in the heart of the order, and DH-ing is good for him. I'm less worried about him health-wise, but you're not getting speed from Robbie Cano. You're probably not getting more power. You're probably just getting a little more batting average, maybe a lot more batting average,

depending on how this goes. But as far as correctable problems go, this is where the question for you comes in, you know. How correctable is not being able to hit high fastballs? Is that a problem that a hitter can truly fix, either by somehow getting faster at the plate and getting the barrel up there, or just by laying off that pitch and saying,

you know what, make him do it again. At least if he throws one up there and I lay off it, I got a better chance of getting something I can hit on the next one. Three names for you. And I'm glad you spotted this flop because it's a fascinating thing to talk about three names the three names are uh cody bellinger kyle schwarber and brandon moss uh-oh brandon moss there's a there's a my the best one of the best pieces I've ever written was an interview with Brandon Moss

and if you have only sort of come upon me at The Athletic or in the last couple years just I'm not trying to toot my own horn it's just a fascinating look into the mind of a hitter that is having this problem so just look up Brandon Moss

Sarah's fan graphs, you know, Adam Dunn was part of that interview. It's just a hilarious interview because Adam Dunn is just being hilarious in the background. But it also gives you a sense of what a hitter is thinking about when he's in this process. And I think what Brandon Moss chose to do was try to kind of use selectivity to get out of it, right? So that is one avenue where you basically just try to spit on high fastballs and just try not to swing at them and just dare them to be able to kind of give you three fastballs high in the zone without going out of the zone or without one dropping, right? It's a way to do things, but I don't think it's been as successful as the other two.

Cody Bellinger created a B swing. We've talked about the B swing. Now he has a C swing. I still think he can put A, B, and C together and be a superstar again. Kyle Schwarber, I think, has been okay with just having two swings. And I just re-rack his last homer, Kyle schwarber's last homer he just hit a homer on a high pitch the i think yesterday i don't know there's there's been a lot of games

i'm pretty sure i was about to text sahadev uh saying you know god kyle schwarber hit that uh that ball out on his at his nipples i think it might have been a walk-off. Any case, Kosh Warber has two swings. Cody Ballinger has three swings. I think that's the better way out is to develop a method of hitting it. And I had beers with Kevin Euclid once where Kevin Euclid said, no hitter has one swing. Just look at what it takes in a swing to hit the inside fastball

versus the outside fastball. Look at what difference a swing looks like if you're trying to hit the low fastball and the high fastball. And I think the very best hitters are ones that find ways to have kind of two swings. The one problem I have with Kesson Hura developing a second or third swing is that he has a very complicated toe tap. He's got both. He's got a toe tap and a big leg kick. He's got a double move, basically, when he swings the bat. And, listen, those things work for people, and he's hit for a lot of power, and I think it works for him.

But it is a lot of movement, and it is a lot of stuff. And if you're trying to develop a way to hit high fastballs while you have all this other stuff going on in your regular swing, I don't know. He's definitely not Brandon Moss because he's more athletic. Also, he got his chance younger than Brandon Moss. If we'd seen Brandon Moss be Brandon Moss from 23 on, because the whole story with Brandon Moss is teams told him he had to be a spray hitter

and a this and a that, and they just didn't let him just be a thumper, right? But if we'd seen Brandon Moss at 23 come up and just be like, I'm going to thump. I'm just going to hit for power, and that's what I'm going to do. Every time the ball drops below the first top third of the zone, I'm going to hit it out. Otherwise, I'm going to strike out 30% of the time, and that's just who I'm going to be.

Then we would have seen a fairly interesting career from Brandon Moss and maybe Hero will go on a slightly speedier with some defense version of that that's the floor so the floor I think is still pretty damn good for Hero even with all these struggles right now

better than the average at the back but to really get out from under this problem i think he would need to change something mechanically i also think that's the kind of adjustment that happens in an off season and probably not in the middle of a season unless he runs into a prolonged slump right you're not going to start rebuilding your swing unless you're completely falling apart at the plate. And I would say he's as extreme as you can be and still holding it together.

He's slightly above average with a 103 WRC plus so far. The Ks are a problem. The Brewers know this is a problem. We're still talking about a guy who hasn't even had a full season's worth of big league plate appearances. In season, I would tell him just try to lay off those. Yeah, that's an easier adjustment right that's discernment that's not changing something you've done thousands of times going back probably to high school i'm guessing i would guess that keston here had picked up this timing

mechanism eight years ago and like reversing that in a few weeks, I don't think that's going to happen. I think that's going to take a full winter of him working on specifically fixing this problem. That's what Schwarber and Bellinger did. But it is a problem long-term if pitchers know you have a hole. I mean, it's like the hangnail that you can't, you know,

or that, Oh, you know, it's the worst when you have like a little something on your cheek or something on the inside, or like a tiny little, like a, like a little Colonel stuck in your tooth in between your teeth after like

popcorn or something. And all these things are unpleasant, very unpleasant. That's what a hole is like. Uh, when you've got, when you're a hitter, I mean,

just, you can see everybody doing it. That's why I think the Moss interview is just so instructive because he's just shouting about how annoyed he is that all the pitchers are going for that hole and what he's trying to do about it. That's a great question. Thank you for writing in, Andrew.

Let's go to one more question. This one comes from Rich. He wants to know, he's setting up a league for just him and one friend and he wants to know if the player pool is restricted to one team their shared favorite team how could they have an entertaining way of playing fantasy so at first pass he set it up as a weekly head-to-head linear weights points league with two infielders two outfielders and four pitchers if either of you tried a single-team player pool like this, and what are your thoughts?

He also wanted to know, he thought he heard a mention that T-shirts and other merch were available but didn't know where to look on the site. As far as T-shirts and merch go, hopefully in the future. We don't have that yet. I mentioned it, I think, during a read. We were all wearing fun T-shirts on a Friday, and I referenced that while talking about dugout mugs.

So that just added confusion. We don't have Rates and Barrels t-shirts yet, as his eyebrows raise. But a single team fantasy league, I mean, a micro league is actually kind of a cool idea, right? Because you can play multiple micro leagues. You can play one micro

league. You can play with someone who's kind of new to fantasy and you only have to watch one team play. It's the team that you watch anyway. I actually kind of like this as a creative way of just playing a much smaller sort of fantasy game. What do you think about linear weights though as a way of playing fantasy in general?

I know you've played some auto new leagues. Do you think that's a good way to play head-to-head? Well, the only thing that strikes me about that is that it seems a little bit black boxy. And depending on how into baseball your friend is, they may just be like, you're making this stuff up. Like what? I got how many points? So I think a slightly simpler idea might be something like home run derby where uh you each and and and you could put a different word in before derby like

hit derby uh k derby right where you basically where you just count up the home runs. You each pick a player for home runs, you pick a player for hits, and you pick a pitcher for Ks. The one problem you might run into is you just always pick the two-starter, but maybe not. You could do something slightly different, but you can't really do wins because that's just terrible. You could do something about ERA, like who will have the lower ERA. uh you can't really do wins because that's just terrible um and uh you could maybe just uh you could do something about era like who will have this the lower era but then what happens if they just don't pitch that week then you get a zero then you win um so you have to do think about like what happens in a week and what you want to do but i think the derby style might be just a little bit simpler and uh lead to fewer arguments between you and your friend.

Yeah, that's the concern with the linear weights angle. But I like this idea, Rich. I have not played like this before. I mean, you could try something more like the DraftKings or FanDuel point system, just something simple like that too. That way it's clear what everything is worth and maybe building it more like that with the roster that you outlined is a good way to go.

So love the idea. Curious to hear how it goes. And I don't have a lot of suggestions for how exactly to run it, but yeah, I'm always for the new and creative ways to play fantasy. Thanks a lot for that question. Rich is not rates and barrels, but there,

the athletic is giving away face masks today um oh if you want to get on that i think the mob and nba handles are giving away face masks all day today so that could be intriguing so the athletic mlb on twitter would be the uh the account you're looking for if you're interested in trying to win that face mask. If you're enjoying this show on a platform that allows you to rate and review it, please take a moment to give us a nice rating and review. We really appreciate the many of you who have done that. If you don't already have a subscription to The Athletic,

you can get one for 40% off at theathletic.com slash rates and barrels. Get all of Eno's articles, all of our baseball coverage, team coverage, fantasy stuff, everything you could possibly want, plus Premier League, plus NASCAR, plus NFL, plus NHL, plus NBA, plus NWSL and MLS, everything you could ever want all under one umbrella. And as always, you can reach us via email, ratesandbarrelsattheathletic.com. Be sure to spell out the word and if you go that route on Twitter. He's at Eno Saris. I am at Derek Van Ry riper that is going to wrap things up for this episode of rates and barrels we are back with you on friday thanks for listening