Rates & Barrels - Can Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Find a $500 Million Payday?

Episode Date: March 12, 2025

Eno and DVR discuss Jacob deGrom's bid to work with slightly less velocity in an effort to stay healthy in 2025, two pitching injuries that popped up in Rangers camp, Brandon Woodruff's steps toward a return to the Brewers' rotation, and Vladimir Guerrero Jr.'s pursuit of a $500 million payday. Plus, Eno checks in from Mariners camp in Peoria before John Fogerty crashes our party over the PA system. Rundown 2:08 Jacob deGrom: Attempting to Dial Back Velocity to Preserve Health? (Jeff Passan's story at ESPN: https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/44195572/) 11:23 Brandon Woodruff Progressing in Rehab; Spring Debut Sunday 15:08 Vladimir Guerrero Jr.: Seeking $500M Deal 27:29 Rob Manfred & Several Owners Pressuring Stu Sternberg to Sell the Rays 31:34 Eno in Peoria at Mariners Camp 43:15 Mailbag Q: Unique League Formats Follow Eno on Bluesky: @enosarris.bsky.social Follow DVR on Bluesky: @dvr.bsky.social e-mail: [e-mail] Join our Discord: https://discord.gg/FyBa9f3wFe Subscribe to The Athletic: theathletic.com/ratesandbarrels Hosts: Derek VanRiper & Eno Sarris Producer: Brian Smith Executive Producer: Derek VanRiper  Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

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Remember Sunwing, save more, do more. Book with your local travel advisor or at sunwing.ca. Put me in coach. Welcome to Rates and Barrels, it's Wednesday, March 12th. Derek Van Ryn for EnoCeris here with you on this episode. We dig into some news and notes, including a story about Jacob deGrom taking a little velo off this year, or at least trying to, in a bid to stay healthy. We've got the stories circulating right now about Vladimir Guerrero Jr. seeking a $500 million payday.

We'll discuss how realistic that might be as he is approaching his walk year here in 2025. Eno is on the scene in Peoria today, so we'll catch up with Eno about what's happening in Mariners' Camp and we've got another great round of mailbag questions that we're going to get to a little bit later on in the show as well. Some housekeeping as we get started, that's the case every time we get together this time of year.

Our live show is coming up at Bear Bottle Brewing Company in San Francisco on March 27th and March 28th, Thursday and Friday of opening day weekend. We're excited about that. 430 Pacific start times both days, free admission, no tickets required and guess what? We have can art for Kayakers Cove. This looks great, you know. Oh, I thought you were going to show them the other version with the recipe on it. If you want to see the recipe, it is on the discord right now. This is, you can see right now a little bit of the rates and barrels logo on

there. Derek and my name on there. It's pretty exciting. It's, I think it looks really nice and apparently producer Brian says it tastes really nice. He's already had a taste of it. That's incredible. I'm glad Brian's doing the heavy lifting, making sure the beer is turning out great. We knew it was gonna turn out great with Lester and Bear Bottle putting that together, but you always gotta do quality control. Anytime you can do quality control, you must do it. So tons of ground to cover.

We hope to get to see you in San Francisco here in just a couple of weeks for one or both of those live shows. Let's start with this Jacob deGrom story. This is a Jeff Passons special over at ESPN. DeGrom's going to try and dial back the velocity a little bit to preserve his health. We have talked about deGrom specifically as part of this group of players. Mason Miller is also a part of this with Trevor May on one of our Thursday shows

that might not be as capable as other players of dialing back velocity as much as they want to. And I think in the context of deGrom, Trevor was talking about it more being in bullpen sessions. Like when deGrom throws a bullpen, it's full bore. It's just not, it's not that much less or any less than what you're going to get when he's on the mound in a game situation. So the actual ability to add, subtract a little bit of V-Load,

I do think every pitcher has some degree of control over that, but I think it's harder for some players than others others and I get the sense that for de Grom It's a harder adjustment to make than it is for guys that you see with those wider velocity bands throughout their careers Yeah, I wonder but at the same time like you have to throw bullpens in your side sessions where you're not throwing 99 I know what Trevor's saying it's still sort of full bore but if we had radar run gun readings for de Grom's side sessions I would doubt that he'd be sitting the same that he sits in games. So maybe it could be a little bit of a mindset where it's like hey you know my

bullpens are enough to get you know most these batters out my bullpen velocity you know which is probably true. And you have to think about the success stories. The very few success stories I think that we have for double Tommy John are basically Nate Iovaldi and Jameson Tyon. And I think that when you think about them, both of them used to have bigger velocity before. And I want to be careful, like a lot of times

you can say that stuff comes all the way back, but we have talked about how innings don't come all the way back after Tommy John. You don't usually have the same volume. And so maybe this is a little bit part of like, maybe I can have a little bit more volume if I step back. And I think in Tyon and you have all these cases, both of them don't throw as hard as they used to they don't throw as many

fastballs as they used to and they found a way to kind of be picturesque and get outs in ways that are not necessarily as dominating I had heard this you know when I was in Rangers camp I forgot to report it to you. All this did occur to me the first time I heard it that it was maybe just something that he was just saying. It's a spring thing, almost on the equivalent of new pitch that he doesn't take into games. He sat 97 in the start that we have recorded

and he sat 97-7 in 2024 when he came back and he sat 99 in 2023. So I guess he's stepped off the gas a little bit, but not by much. It is probably more in that bucket of a nice thing to say and I'm just not as worried about him health-wise entering this season as I have been in each of the previous two or three in which he was trying to come in healthy and push 150 plus innings right I feel like it's it's

like getting the car out of the shop right you get the transmission fixed or you get the engine fixed. It's a major problem. New ligament. You got it fixed. You're back out there and you're like, all right, let's get on the highway. Let's open it up. And I think that's kind of more my mentality with de Grom, even if he's being more cognizant of how he pitches. We'll see what kinds of adjustments we actually get when the lights are on, when the games begin to count. We'll see what kinds of adjustments we actually get when the lights are on, when the games begin to count. We'll see what kinds of care the Rangers exercise with him. Imagine, on the scale of, you know, pure kid gloves to let it rip, it's not kid gloves

because of his age, but it is some level of caution because of his age and because of the fact that it's second Tommy John and because it's a long contract that he's on there, too I mean, it's a big money deal You still want him to be there and be healthy and perform at the most important parts of the season So all of that is still a factor. This is a contending team I mean that was the that was the feeling around Rangers camp is like this team is ready to go and if you think about it They've improved their depth over the years and now they, you know, they may even send easy heal Durand down

because Josh Smith can play everywhere, you know? And that might allow them to sneak somebody else onto the roster that they really like from an offensive standpoint. So they were talking even about their minor league depth and Dustin Harris and Osuna as two outfielders that might make a difference here in the future. Dustin Harris apparently got bigger and still runs well and is now playing

centerfield instead of first base. So you know those are two names they were excited about in terms of their depth but if you look around the Rangers just position by position you're like uh-huh yep yep yep you know like it's good now they're good everywhere and they're a contending team. So I do think he'll probably do three in and starts three and four in and starts in April. Hmm. I'm not expecting to be dialed back quite that much, but I do think, you know, five and fly, depending on pitch counts and stress,

something he mentioned in the story, I think that's going to be part of the recipe. You're not going to see a lot of six and seven in the outings, at least to begin the year from de Grom. So you do have to factor that in if you're thinking about building a rotation with him in it, especially at a slowly rising price as a result of him being healthy and being out there this spring. You mentioned the Rangers depth. That's going to be tested a little bit depending on the extent of these injuries.

Cody Bradford and Tyler Malley both scratched from their spring starts in the last 24 hours or so. Bradford with left elbow soreness. Malley both scratched from their spring starts in the last 24 hours or so. Bradford with left elbow soreness, Malley with right forearm tightness, MRIs have come back clean for both players so we're kind of in that soft limbo but given the depth they have with Leiter, Rocker, Dane Dunning, I could see both of these guys maybe beginning the year on the IL with short injury stints, even if these are in fact minor problems.

The energy coming from Tyler Malley himself is that this is just a short-term blip and that even his VELO will rise as they get closer to the season. And assuredly that happens. There are veterans that dial it in slowly. And that's why if you look at the correlations between spring and regular season VELOs, that's one of the reasons why. We talked about how they are in shorter outings and they can let it air out early. That's another reason why the correlation between spring and regular season velocity is not always as strong as you might expect and there can actually be a tick or two waiting

for them when they break for camp. That might be a big deal for Tyler Malley because a tick or two could get him to 93 and a half average VLO for a variety. And without that, he has sub-average VLO for the variety with some okay secondary pitches but not anything where you're like, oh, well at least he has the Kyle Bradish slider.

And even if he's throwing 92, he can throw that slider a lot. But not anything really like oh well at least he has the Kyle Bradish slider and like you know Even if he's throwing 92 he can throw that slider a lot You know like he doesn't really have I think his splitters okay, but I don't think he's like a gossman with it So I think Tyler Miley could lose his rotation spot healthy or not you know and so lighter really impressed me I watched him yesterday and After talking to him about all the effort he'd gone through to sort of smooth out, he had like a little hop in his delivery.

I thought he looked good, even though he walked four guys. He walked five guys, I think. Walked five and struck out five in three innings or four innings. It was like such a Jack Leiter outing. It was a little bit not that fun to watch at times because when someone's struggling with command, it's little bit not that fun to watch at times because you know when someone's struggling with

command it's actually not that much fun to watch. Was it fastball or was it everything? Well the thing is he's now throwing a five pitch mix so you know he's throwing a change up and a sinker on top of his other pitches. I got the impression that sometimes the sinker just moved more than he expected you know so he is inviting a wrinkle. You might expect somebody with his command issues to be like, I have three pitches, I can command them and that's what I'm doing.

I think it's probably good for him to have a bigger arsenal and to go for it. And before this, he'd only walked one batter. So I think Jack Leiter is still on my list of sleepers and he's going to be on my deep league breakout piece that comes out this week. And I think he may even break camp with his team. Yeah, those injuries could leave that door wide open for that to happen. Here's an update for you. Brandon Woodruff is going to have his spring debut, his Cactus League debut take place

on Sunday, but he pitched in a minor league game at American Family Fields of Phoenix on Tuesday, touched 94 according to Kurt Hoag of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel. You've got to remember, Woodruff had anterior capsule surgery in October of 2023, so we're pushing almost 18 months. Touching 94 coming off of that surgery is really encouraging. I also noticed in Kurt's story Brandon Woodruff is working on a cutter. So another wrinkle right? You lose maybe a little bit of Velo. Maybe that top end isn't quite there at least initially. Having something else in the mix makes a lot of sense to try and make that adjustment. Still not gonna be ready for opening day. That's not, that's never been the time taken. So, so yeah, so what's your, what's your- I have a different take on this.

It's going well from a timeline perspective, but what's your overall assessment of Woodruff as a major injury guy that- Touching 94, dude? It was his first game action. That's bad news. That is so much worse than he used to touch. Yeah, but it's his first game action back on Capsule.

He used to touch 98, 99. I don't know, man. Like, I think this is one of those injuries where it's like, it's his first team actually back on capsule spades. He used to touch 98, 99. I don't know man. I think this is one of those injuries where it's like it's going to be incremental progress and maybe he's already hit the ceiling. That's possible. But I'm cautiously optimistic that if they're careful they will get him back to something somewhat close to what he was pre-surgery even if he's not. Yeah, touching 98 topping out at 98. It is not in. I'm not in. And I think it could be like a slightly encouraging news

for someone with a devastating injury to be this far along. Like I can see that take. But in terms of like what my actions would be corresponding to this, is he's still on a do not draft list for me. All right. Well, we'll see how it progresses in the next couple of weeks. Of course there's no true do not drop list there's there's always a situation where you're like oh final round sure. Yeah I think you'd still prefer to do that in a league with IL spots as opposed to living that life in a league without the IL spots but I came away a little more encouraged than Eno did with what

Woodruff was able to accomplish on Tuesday. We'll see how it looks on Sunday. By the way that you put IL slots in the winner's league. Oh no no I'm gonna thank Jeff Good, Bo Guppy, Commissioner Jeff for doing that. I had nothing to do with the IL spots. Or he did it for you. Yeah maybe, maybe it's an accommodation for me so I can go hog wild with my pitching strategy which I intend to do. I will reveal my intent ahead of time and I think it's, everybody should know that there are IL spots in that league. It's important so if you didn't get a chance to read the rules now you know that the top 10 finishers, the listener league is going to happen.

Bizarre ass settings, which I don't know why you guys came up with these. Not my rules. Those are Jeff's rules. If you're the commissioner, you get to make the rules. That's pretty simple. He looked for feedback. What are our settings? Oh, it's like extra categories.

Home runs? Yeah, we've got home runs allowed by pitchers, strikeouts for hitters. Yeah, there's some, it's not a straightforward five by five. You gotta make some tough decisions. I agree with producer Brian, sounds shady. You were on the thread when he was setting up the rules. It's not my fault he didn't check in on it. Don't hold me accountable.

Yeah, I've seen, right? You had an opportunity, you had the power to influence the rules and you chose not to. At least I figured it out before the draft started. I know, I wasn't going to tell you. It's the season to shop new styles, electronics and definitely a holiday trip and what if each time you made a purchase you got a little something back. With Rakuten, you can earn cash back on just about anything you buy from over 750 stores. So if you're looking to buy a new phone, clothes,

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I pour myself a cup and do the crossword, which is the jewel of my morning. What's our starting word today? I think it should be ocean. Let's talk about Vladimir Guerrero Jr. though. at NYTimes.com slash games. Subscribe by March 16th to get a special offer. Let's talk about Vladimir Guerrero Jr., though, reports that he is seeking a five hundred million dollar deal and willing to spread that out over like 15 years. Doesn't want the value of the deal to be that number because of deferrals, though, which I think is kind of important as far as like thinking about

how realistic that is and how many suitors there are. Right. I mean, we think about the one Soto sweepstakes that we just had or two winter now, not two winters ago with Shohei Otani. Right. Like you think about how that narrows down the pool, like that size outlay narrows down the pool of teams that would be interested. I wonder with Vlad Jr. And I say this as someone who has believed he's been a great player his entire big league career. I never really had doubts about him as a prospect. I know some of that stuff bubbled up

as he moved through the Jay's system from some bizarro corners of then Twitter. Ultimately, Vlad Jr. has been as good of a hitter as promised. We just saw maybe a little more fluctuation in homer totals than we would have expected in part because of 2023. Only popped 26 homers that year but he's been extremely durable. Talking about a guy that rarely takes days off

for his career he's got a 137 WRC+. He's gonna turn 26 on Sunday so happy birthday in advance Vlad. I don't think you listen to the show, but if you do, I hope you have a great birthday. OK, so 500 million for a first baseman, even though he's 26, given what teams are willing to spend dollars for win and all the calculations we think about, is there a team out there that's going to meet that sort of payday for Vlad Jr.? Do the lines intersect as a baseball team in 2025 or 2026? Is there a team out there that's going to meet that sort of payday for Vlad Jr.? Do the lines intersect?

Does a baseball team in 2025 or 2026 pay that much money for a current first baseman who will assuredly be a DH before the end of a decade plus long contract? When I looked at the dollars per win for players that were projected for better than two wins. So I'm looking at regular players. Average players are better. When I looked at that this offseason I got slightly north of 11 million dollars per win. If you take the median projection and what is interesting about Vlad is that there are there is like a big spread the projections are diverse for him you have a 5.5 win projection from oopsie and the bad X which love his bat speed and his batter ball velocities and everything and then you have zips

with a 4.4 I mean that's a pretty big difference I mean a 4.4 is like still an all-star but a 5.5 is gonna be someone who could then win an MVP They wouldn't necessarily win it with 5.5, but that's someone who's in that quality of player And we've seen him have near MVP season. Do you have an MVP season? Did he win it that year with the and was a 2021 This is why baseball reference users have a one leg up. Yeah man, he took second that year. I think he won the MVP. He was second. Second to Otani, right?

That is correct. Otani won. So he is the kind of guy who can have MVP seasons. He does have a wide set of projections where if you rely on just what he's done on the field, you get one sort of numbers and if you rely a little bit on process you get another sort of numbers but if we take the median projection for five wins for Vladimir Guerrero jr. and we give him 11 million dollars we don't age him until he hits 30 and you add up all the wins and you do age him a half a win after that you add up all the wins you get around 40 wins in 10 years 40 wins in 10 years you could give that guy 450 million dollar contract now could you give him 500 million for 15 years yeah because 10 years from now he'll only be 35 and by doing a 15 year thing you stretch out the AAV right and you make

the AAV much more manageable you get him his 500 number and if you have any bonus years between 35 and 40 you're happy right. You have any bonus years between 35 and 40, you're happy, right? You bank those bonus years anything he does. If he's your DH, you know, 1.15, 1.20 WRC plus DH, you know, for two or three years in the back end, that's more than you expected. That's more than you even paid for. You paid for 40 wins. Now if you go and look at, see how many players,, you know put up 40 wins after they turn 25 It's a short number of players, but he should be on that short number of this

That that's the kind of talent he is So if you focus too much on the position you lose sight of the fact that you're signing the bat The bat is special. This is a guy who makes powerful Contact with one of the fastest swings in the big leagues some of the most powerful contact and he does it with a great strikeout rate and he doesn't chase everything and he doesn't have a bad walk rate so he's like a perennial lock for a great OVP the slugging kind of goes in and out a little bit with his his ground ball rate but he's so young

actually that aging curves suggest that he will hit fewer ground balls for a couple more years there's still actually pre-peak years so yes I think he'll get five hundred million dollars all right so you think he'll get the 500 million then the second part of the question is how many suitors does he have it seems like he's clearly the Blue Jays franchise player already but if he walks and can choose his next location, it's like, well, the two obvious fits, like the Yankees and Mets will always come up

in these conversations. The Dodgers will somewhat come up in this conversation because of the Dodgers, but who else? Like, who else is there? Both the Yankees and Mets signed one-year deals for their first baseman. That's, in retrospect, seems a little shady. Not shady, just like prep work.

Like they were thinking about this as a possibility. Yeah, yeah, like don't wanna really lock up that position if Vlad's gonna be available. I didn't think about that with the Mets slow-played interest in Pete Alonso, even though the reunion always made sense to me all along, but yeah, that could've been a factor. And I think what makes Vlad so special,

you mentioned just how hard he swings the bat, the power that he gets to, that he could still have some peak years left. It's the low strikeout rates. Last year 13.8% for his career, 15.6%. I see maybe a lot of similarities between Miguel Cabrera, guys that debuted really young, played extremely high levels right away, extremely durable players. Think about how Miggy aged. It took a long time for the aging curve to catch up to Miggy, for the wear and tear to

finally grind up. As bad as the second Miggy Tigers deal was, the first Miggy Tigers deal was good. Phenomenal. I mean, take a look at the first 13, 14 years of Miggy's career and different player, right? We tend to get stuck remembering the players at the end a little more than we do at the beginning just because that's what we saw most recently, right? Miggy Cabrera is the comp, I think.

And I think if you look at that, you'd say, well, yeah, why wouldn't we? It's a rare opportunity. So as long as you believe that he is that sort of rare talent and by all indications he is, then I think I think he will think you're right. He will get paid. Do you think it's the Mets? Do you think it's the Yankees? The Dodgers? Do you think there's a mystery team that can fly in and actually get this done or do you think he stays in Toronto? I mean the Jays are a tough team to read from a long term perspective.

We've wondered if their their window with the BoVlad core might just slam shut and they may have to quickly retool, replan and losing him at the end of the year. If he walks and they get qualifying offer compensation that would be a tough blow for them given his importance to that franchise. I think the Blue Jays will be in on it. I don't know if they'll actually pull the trigger. Producer Brian points out that the biggest Toronto contract in history is the Springer deal for $150, so we're talking multiples of the biggest deal they've ever done. However, if you believe the rumors, they were in on Otani. Never ever ever gonna let that one go. They were in on a lot of

big deals where they they seem to and I think that the Rogers ownership the vibe I get from Canadians who know more than me about Rogers as a company or whatever is that they have money and They can do this and they have been running fairly large payrolls Like they're not they're not like a bottom half payroll team They did usually one of those teams that kind of gets right to the Lux tax, you know, so right around there. And I think that they could take the jump and just say, we'll make the rest we'll figure the rest of the payroll rest of the team around this

guy. This is the guy we're building on. And finally make pull the trigger. The only reason you know, if they don't, I think it is a little bit of a red flag because they see something in his day-to-day preparation or His medicals or something you know like yeah the Giants. I think the Giants should be in Well we know they'll take third or fourth in the bidding right there often Buster they're they're willing to Like the Adamas deal was like more like twelve and a half million dollars per win the bidding right there often. They're not with Buster. They're they're willing to. It's been different.

Like the Adamas deal was like more like twelve and a half million dollars per win. So they kind of quote unquote overpaid for Adamas. And if they're willing to overpay for Vlad and give him five fifty or something, they can get them. I just I think that most hitters

don't really want to sign there. I do think the other part of this with the Dodgers, I know I kind of just mentioned it, but it's only because of the budget and the limitless possibilities. But Freddie Freeman still under contract for two more years after this season on his six year deal. So he signed through 2027. It would get really crowded. Are you going to put Otani in the outfield or something?

Yeah, he can play Otani defensively somewhere if you're going to do that. So that seems a little bit far fetched. But again, this is where I wonder like how many suitors can Vlad Jr. get betting for his services in a way that's going to push that number up and maybe enable him to get what he wants from the Jays That's the part that I'm not sure about let me throw a dark horse on there sure nationals Mike Rizzo during his time as a GM has been willing to throw big contracts at Kind of Hall of Fame trajectory pitchers when that's come along I would say Vlad jr. Is pretty confidently a Hall of Fame trajectory pitchers when that's come along. I would say Vlad Junior is pretty confidently a Hall of Fame trajectory first baseman as much as any player can be one at this stage of the career.

Right. So maybe it's a pivot. Maybe it's saying, this is this is our opportunity. This is our and they don't have an obvious long term first base mashing prospect either. So it kind of fits in with everything they'd be doing. I'm not having derelict. I don't know exactly how well this turned out for each team, but they also did resolve their TV battle with the Orioles.

So there could be some financial certitude with regards to the TV money that they're coming in that they didn't have before. So I also just think that they're a building team that, like, yes, maybe it makes sense for this team to spend money on a starting pitcher. But I think in this case, what they'll actually do that they could they could be like, let's just pivot.

Let's let's just have an awesome lineup, like how awesome would a lineup with James Wood, Dylan Cruz, and Vlad Guerrero be in it, even if Abrams has to play second or whatever, like they're still building a core that is very interesting on the bat side. I'm waiting for AJ Preller to come parachuting in with some kind of 18-year, $621 million deal that just shaves off the AAV even more. And they're like, dude, yeah, you could stay until you're 44.

It's fine, because it continues to just be like- 20-year deal. I don't care about the future. I care about right now. Yeah, 20 could stay until you're 44. It's fine, because it continues to just be like. 20 year deal. I don't care about the future. I care about right now. Yeah, 20 year deal. Oh my god. It's amazing.

Even Xander Bogart's Graveyard's just hanging out. Still hitting. Last two guys on the roster. If they bring home one title, it might all be worth it. It's true. You said you're not Evandrelik. That's true. Evandrelik had Evandrelik. That's true. Evandrelik had another story that came up recently

that I thought was pretty interesting. And if you saw it on the Athletic, you saw the headline, MLB commissioner, several owners pressuring Stu Sternberg to sell the Rays as buyers eye the team. I didn't get the sense that Stu Sternberg was trying to sell the Rays, you know? So this is a pretty bizarre story that popped up

and it makes you ask some questions like, who wanted this to be out there? I think that's the biggest piece of the news is, why is this out there? Like where did this rumor come from? And I'm not trying to speculate on a specific source or cast aspersions on Evandrelik it's reporting in any way what I'm just saying is that this is an actual sort of leak and this is not a leak that would

come from Manfred's office I don't believe because Manfred works for ownership you know and I don't think this is in his best interest to be seen as pressuring someone to sell they have have done it in the past. When they've done it in the past, it has been because the team owners were trying to take money out of the teams and were running, and also like running into cash problems of their own. And so when you look back at the owner in Texas

that they forced to sell, the McCorts, the Wilpons, each of them, there was divorces involved, there was family strife involved, there was running out of money. And in all three cases, kind of trying to extract as much money from the organization as possible to the point where it became a detriment to the organization. I guess there's a little bit there that sounds like the Rays, maybe like by being such austere, so austere on the on the budget and,

and holding out for the best possible stadium deal. Is this Sternberg trying to extract money from the Rays or is it just, just a regular playbook? It seems like a regular playbook for an ownership group to me, you know, like we don't like our stadium. We want free stadium. Give us free stadium, or we leave. I mean, it's like that.

Manfred's cool with that. So there must be something else going on. And I think that if you kind of read the tea leaves, then if this is true and Manfred is pressuring him, this league is out there to kind of pressure Sternberg to take the deal. Right. And I think as Evan had in his story, too, there are connections to what the league wants to do with expansion. And if the Rays don't stay in Tampa or St. Pete, then that that has a cascading effect. Of course, the franchise fees for expansion teams are significant. That gets split among the current owners. So you start to think about all the dominoes that begin to fall. If the current plan for St. Pete isn't the

one that the rays move ahead with and then you can kind of understand why there's some strong interest in changing things with how this team is currently owned. I think they want new TV markets. I think they want to expand and I mean that's that's just a man for its own words You know He wants to expand once he says something you have to believe him and you kind of with man for it have to believe that he's gonna do and you know He kind of pressured the you know put pressure on the A's to finally get their deal and that took an expansion market off the table

You know in vegas So I think he kind of doesn't want that to happen again I think he wants the expansion markets that are there He doesn't want them to get worse He doesn't want to go further down the list of expansion markets because tampa can't stay there You know another potential mess unfolding we'll see where it goes But great reporting by evan on that story how they suggest you check that out if you haven't done so already

Let's move on. Oh, I have the cry on from yesterday. You're not in surprise anymore. You're in Peoria I'm in Peoria. I made a graphic for that too So you're in Peoria and it's a shared facility Padres and Mariners, we've been spending time at Mariners camp today. So what's going on with the Mariners? I was hanging out by the pitchers to no one's surprise. Ryan Divish gave me crap. A couple other writers gave me crap. They're like, are these your favorite pitchers?

And I'm like, yeah, actually, I think they are. And it was cool because I've been talking to Logan Gilbert since he was in Modesto and Bryce Miller is very much like Logan Gilbert. They're tinkerers. They have similar arm slots. They talk to each other about, you know, the pitches they're throwing and they're always trying to get better and they care about the analytics and they look at the movement profiles and so they're very much and they're talk they're talkative and fun And and so I talked to them about that shared bond of what they're doing

And Gilbert was talking about how he doesn't know what glove sign to use Because he has a curveball that he threw last year that kind of goes sideways But now he's throwing a curveball. That's more like a death ball that goes straight up and down He wants to throw both and when you're throwing to a catcher You have to give your glove sign and so normally if it's a curveball your glove sign is like this It's like sort of forward with the glove That's like it mimics the movement of the thing right and if you're throwing a slider you kind of go this way With the glove kind of mimicking the movement

But if he's got a slider and he's got a downward curve ball, how does he do the other one? And we were laughing about how many buttons he's gonna have to have on the thing. And he's also, we were talking a little bit about like, so he's throwing a sinker, two curve balls, the gyro slider and the splitter and the fore seam in camp. And he's like, I can't promise you

that all these are going North with me. You know, this is camp. I'm working on these pitches. I like them. I think that they could be useful, but I don't know what's going to happen when, you know, opening date rolls around. But I think it's, that's the best use of your time in spring as a pitcher is to see what these pitches look like in competition against good players. Not only what it looks like on the, the readout. You know because you know he came up with

a sweeper that had great stuff plus he couldn't command it and batters were spinning on it because he couldn't command it so he couldn't throw it. So you learn something from the hitters that's beyond just whatever the model spits out. And Bryce Miller is working on his cutter. He's trying to refine his cutter I think he's great forcing great splitter the sweeper is morph morphed into sort of a slurvy Breaking ball that's pretty good I think a cutter would be helpful for him to play off of the top of the zone with the hard stuff But just a really great group. I talked to Emerson Hancock about throwing his sweeper, too

But just a really great group. I talked to Amazon Hancock about throwing his sweeper, too So now you've got you know a guy that I didn't really love before But with a sweeper maybe a better outpitched than he had before and he does have some similarities to kind of the Clark Schmidt Low slot, you know if he's throwing sinker cutter Sweeper, you know, sinko gyro cider sweeper and four seam maybe he can, he does have good command. So he could be low to me. And the, the park is always such a great thing. So like whatever they are of true talent around the league, they're probably the best fantasy rotation. I think you're like some people draft full rotations. You've seen that, right? I would never do that. No, no. I mean, no, no, like a league, the league format. Yeah. Yeah.

Yeah. Were you just like, I take the Seattle rotation. I think I might take them first. Yeah. Well, think about the Dodgers. We get all you get all the depth, though. So I think I think the Dodgers would go first in that draft. But the Mariners are up near the top for sure. The Great Home Park. And I just think they're also, I think they're just, there's real camaraderie there too. Brian Wu was talking about how he had more similar with Luis Castillo, but they have such reverence

for Luis Castillo, right? And they each have like, almost like a pairing partner. Like Brian Wu was like, I talk change up with Luis Castillo cause he has my arm slot, you know? He's more my arm slot. And you know, Bryce Miller and, and then, you know, Kirby's just a savant and he's not as talkative as the rest of them. But we also laughed about how he's the nine pocket God and nobody could beat

him in any command game. So, you know, just a, just a great group of, of pitchers I wanted to check in. Well, I also checked in with Mitch Hanniger and Dylan Moore about the research that we talked about on the show That suggests that there's not only a batters eye being sort of non Perpendicular to the home plate issue with the the home strikeout rate surge in Seattle the strike every part factors there That if there's a Sun factor and Dylan Moore was like yeah what happens is as the Sun is setting it lights up the batter's eye it's not

necessarily like a reflection it's that the batter's eye becomes a different color and then you can totally imagine that right like it just becomes lighter it would soften the lighter green ball I imagine like a lighter backdrops gonna make the ball look fuzzier I think would be the way I would try to describe contrast Yeah, that's contrast. Yeah Mitch was like they could fix it And I was like what he's like yet it comes through the windows Right get some sun and there's like windows and he's like they could just put shades there

He's like I did up. I think he's like I think they just leave it because it's an advantage for them on the pitching side. And I was like well there's also, Dylan Moore was like don't you call my ballpark weird and I was like well this part is weird because I said something about it being weird. And he's like this is the only ballpark I've ever had. And I was like no I love it, I love the ballpark Dylan.

And he's like okay just be sure. Mitch on the other hand was like I try not to think about it. I was the ballpark, Dylan. And he's like, okay, just be sure. Mitch, on the other hand, was like, I try not to think about it. I was like, what do you do about it? I was like, normally people get better at it over time. And Mitch was like, try not to think about it. What is it gonna do to think about it? I just try to hit.

True, you just have to solve it one way or the other. Does Dylan Moore, I'm amazed that he's the guy that said, don't call my ballpark weird. On the one hand, that's cool. That's a kind of endearing, like loves his home park. And that's where he's comfortable, in the sense of saying the right things, which maybe Jerry DiPoto should have Dylan Moore

do media for him, perhaps. Think about this, Dylan Moore's splits for his career. He's a 179 289 336 hitter at home WRC plus he's 234 343 432 117 WRC plus with a 26.8 percent carry if you put Dylan Moore in any other Ballpark for half his games. I think he'd be more of a household very good player or at least a very solid player That isn't like the fantasy

Enigma that we were looking at were like, oh there's power and speed but maybe not an everyday job and the batting average is gonna Hurt you I think some of that downside would just go away if Dylan Moore played in a neutral environment Or even just one that didn't boost strikeouts like that. Yeah I do wonder about that. I don't know if this is news or not but I did ask him like do you have a bunch of gloves and he goes not down here. Oh okay. I only have one glove down here and I said so just the just the infielder's glove and he goes yeah but up up in Seattle that I've got my my outfield gloves so. He still has it he hasn't thrown it away hasn't donated it yet We may be heading towards Dylan Moore as the he's a lefty right Dylan Moore is always a righty That's that's what's so awkward about him, and he's not playing well right now I think I would trade for Dylan Moore if I knew I could get him from the Mariners from a real-life perspective

Plays in a position has some tools interesting fit I just think you'd get better results getting them out of that ballpark the problem is you'd probably have to give them a position player back because unless you gave them like a fifth starter type or something but I don't I don't think they would they would value that so much because Emerson Hancock is probably a fine six and Logan Evans you know as despite not pitching that well this spring. And whenever I talk to a Mariners person about Logan Evans, they think, you know, plus plus makeup, plus plus slider,

and is going to put it all together. So I think that they think he's a fine, you know, eighth starter or whatever, seventh starter. Like, what would you offer them? You'd have to offer them a close infield prospect. If you were Matt Arnold, would you offer them? You'd have to offer them a close infield prospect. If you were Matt Arnold, would you offer them Oliver Dunn? Oh. For Dylan Moore?

For third base. But then you'd have two righties, you can't platoon them. Now I'll, you know what, I'll fess up. I sent you a text yesterday and I said, I think I'm maybe in on Oliver Dunn as a platoon guy? Like, or. Yeah, why?

Did he hit a homerer you were watching or something? Hit two I think yesterday and I was looking at his page again. I was like, you know, we really it wasn't a big sample in the big leagues and the upper level minor stuff was really good and he's a little old for the level and I think some of that was at Reading, which is a goofy park boost homers. But I came back to the OK okay, maybe in a platoon situation this can work. More of the, I don't think we got enough healthy Oliver Dunn in the big leagues to definitively say he can't do it. Even though Brewer's Twitter or Bruce Sky is going to say, we don't like Oliver Dunn. You're an idiot. Like that's probably the incoming flood of messages. So I was low-key quietly like, I'm not quite out on Oliver Dunn just yet.

I don't know how I got here. I don't know why I'm talking about Oliver Dunn right now. I didn't have to do that. It's completely self-inflicted. Would you trade for Dylan Moore to play third base for you in Milwaukee yet? I would. I mean, because even if he's not playing third, he can play other spots. Yeah, and even Oliver Dunn could use a right-handed. I mean, if you're saying maybe trade Oliver Dunn, but like there is actually maybe something here because what the Brewers have are a lot of close prospects that kind of fit the bill that Seattle likes which is Makes contact maybe doesn't have the best batted ball velocities. That's something that Seattle has bid on before so Andrew Monasterio Oh, come on. That's that's not gonna happen. I

Don't think that's how this is going to go down. But yeah, sounds like a good day. I think for now, Seattle's happy to have a guy who can play all over, even if he doesn't end up being the starter in any position. It is the kind of thing that if you're trying to be competitive, you want your Dylan Moore, because he's like your Josh Smith in Ranger camp, right? right right so my silly prediction is Dylan Moore if the Mariners

Are not in contention will be a small trade at the trade deadline that actually makes a bigger impact that people expect because he'll be out of T-Mobile so oh Get Center field fired up in the background don't sue us They're playing Andy McCullough's music is gonna catch us I just that means Andy McCullough walked to the stadium I think that's what's going on there notoriously hates that song from the stadium music story a few years ago on the athletic That might be the end of the show man. I don't think we could do it. It's really loud I told you it was gonna get loud soon That might be the end of the show man. I don't think we could do it. It's really loud I

Told you it was gonna get loud soon We knew we were up against it. I guess I guess I'm gonna start saying goodbye. See what it's like oh My god so much John Fogarty I Can't unhear it. Maybe they'll just maybe they're just testing out the system And it'll stop in a second that parks been there for 20 years Man, they know the system works. They're just getting everybody fired up I see some scouts walking in behind you know there's people already filling in yeah, can you can you imagine how many times? Scouts have heard centerfield oh

My god imagine a scout. Hey the job for 30 years They are the only people on the planet that probably hate the song as much as Andy does. That's incredible. Alright, we'll try one mailbag question. Because it applies to what we're doing in our listener league, the Champions Listener League. The listener league, we're gonna do the autumn new pick six group. More details to come on that. This question came from pulledflyball.

And it was a question about unique league formats. This home league has a wrinkle, and it's 12 team, head-to-head categories, standard, but they also added strikeout rate instead of Ks, and they have saves plus holds. So it's got three starting pitcher slots, three relievers, two general pitcher spots, and there's a

weekly minimum for innings pitched. So what do you do in leagues like that that have a lot of extra twists that maybe make strikeout rate more important or do you just like crank on pitching differently? How do you change the weights? What tools do you use to adjust for the non standard leagues you plan? One of the obvious ones is the auction calculator because it has a surprising amount of weird things in it So for in our league, you know, I couldn't get exactly what I wanted out of the auction calculator But you know, there are home runs allowed by pitchers. It's not home runs for nine, you know So you get as close to you can with the auction calculator. I think it can be a boon to a league because if nobody is like a

spreadsheet wizard and the auction calculator is not going to give you exactly what you want, then by doing weird rules you you actually foment a little bit of like feel people judging by feel. And I think, you know, throwing in maybe aggressive strategies where people are like, you know, I'm willing to do this even if the calculator says it's the wrong idea. So I have a league that's similar to this. And I just find SPR piece. So I find relievers that were starting pitcher eligible. And I usually have a killer bullpen all the time. And I find that the minimums are pretty easy to hit if you have like three or four good starters.

And you can even sometimes have, you know, just a bench full of starters that you only use in good starts, you know? And so, you know, have some half starters that are like, oh, I don't use that guy away from home. You know, maybe like a David Weathers type in a 12 team where you're like, oh, I don't use that guy away from home. Maybe like a David Weathers type in a 12 team where you're like, yeah, I have him for, Ryan Weathers, yeah, Ryan Weathers type.

I have him just for starts in Miami. And I put, otherwise I have a starter eligible reliever up there, a Bo Brischke or those kind of guys. So that's been my strategy in that league. So I just think just generally get as close as you can with the auction calculator, consider aggressive strategies. I think that's been the theme of this spring for us is me learning from you also just generally

that maybe aggressive strategies are a good idea, a way to win in fantasy. So in this case, I would consider aggressive strategies, get as close as you can with the auction calculator and play by feel a little bit. And that's what I'm doing in our listener league. I'm accounting for the different categories but I'm also trying to take into account that I hate when I do this to myself I'm going to poison the well again. I'm trying to account for the room being extra precise and hyper aware of the other categories and then leverage everybody doing that to my benefit

That's what I'm attempting to do. Why would spill that plan on the show? I have no idea the room is gonna know all of our sleepers It's gonna know all of our strategies, you know, I pick on the corner five fifteen I mean, I will probably have to deal with people sniping right in front of me But at least I get two picks in a row So you can't snipe me fully if I'm gonna I can reach a little bit but It's gonna be really tough because they know they listen to us talk. They know what we think about players

I don't know if it was a random draw I assume it was but if Jeff put me in the middle the the draft order just to make me uncomfortable, it's working. I'd much rather be on the wheel where you are. We could have traded spots. That would have been probably a good idea for both of us. But with you on the road, maybe it's better to be on the wheel, a little easier. Try not to fall in love at the ballpark today,

with all the romantic music they play. It sets the mood just right. I think we gotta call it a day. It's so loud. My wifi's dying and it's loud and this is spring training. This is spring training everybody. We'll make it up to you later in the week or next week when we're both in the comforts of our own home. But a reminder, you can join our discord with the link in the show description.

Send us mailbag questions for future episodes in the mailbag channel. We got strategy channels, team channels channels all sorts of good stuff news and notes to try to keep track of some of the things Happening around the league and find Edo on blue sky, you know Sarah stop be scutted social I'm DVR to be scutted social get a subscription the athletic at the athletic comm Rates and barrels read you know stuff read all the other great content. We have there as well That's good do it for this episode of Raids and Barrels. Thanks to our producer, Brian Smith, for singing every single word to center field in the background and for putting this episode together.

We are back with you on Thursday. Thanks for listening. So much John Fogarty.