Rates & Barrels - Corbin Burnes to the D-backs as the 'Mystery Team' Strikes Again!

Episode Date: January 3, 2025

Eno and DVR discuss Corbin Burnes' surprising move to the D-backs on a six-year, $210 million contract -- plus, Teoscar Hernández's reunion with the Dodgers, another pair of moves from the Nationals, and a few mailbag questions as the new year gets underway. Rundown 2:44 Corbin Burnes to the D-backs(!): Six-Year, $210M Deal 11:37 Do Teams Overrreact to Qualifying Offer Compensation? 21:25 Teoscar Hernández: Returns to Dodgers w/Three-Year Deal 29:46 Nationals Add Josh Bell & Trevor Williams 42:17 Josh Rojas to Chicago, A Mervis-Brujan Swap & Six-Man Rotation in Boston? 50:25 Mailbag: Under the Radar First Baseman for Deep Leagues? Follow Eno on Bluesky: @enosarris.bsky.social Follow DVR on Bluesky: @dvr.bsky.social e-mail: [e-mail] Join our Discord: https://discord.gg/FyBa9f3wFe Subscribe to The Athletic: theathletic.com/ratesandbarrels Hosts: Derek VanRiper & Eno Sarris Executive Producer: Derek VanRiper Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Welcome to Rates and Barrels. It's Friday, January 3rd, 2025. Happy New Year, Eno. Welcome to the new season of Rates and Barrels. I count that when you flip the calendar over, it's a new season, even if it looks similar, sounds similar. A lot has happened since we last spoke. We had a mystery team swoop in and win the Corbin Burns sweepstakes. We'll talk about the fit for Corbin Burns in Arizona. Teasca Hernandez is back with the Dodgers. We'll talk about the implications of that.

The Nationals have stayed busy. They made a couple of small moves, but moves that will matter for some deeper leagues. And we've got a bunch of mailbag questions. One of our New Year's resolutions as a show is to dig into that mailbag a bit more often. So we're gonna answer a bunch of questions from our mailbag over the course of the next hour or so.

You know, how was your New Year's? I saw your message on New Year's Day, a little little bacon correction for the champagne the night before. Champagne is awful. It's so much sugar. It's so crazy. And yet I'm blaming that hangover on the like one cup of champagne I had. It was just one cup of champagne is just a one cup of champagne not the other beers I had no no, it's not the beers fault. It's the champagne's fault But we had a good time we did a little bit of Marvel movie marathon had a Had friends over with kids the same age as our kids and our kids made it to midnight. They were very proud

They were very proud to make it and of course if they were gonna make it to midnight. They're very proud. They were very proud to make it. And of course, if they were going to make it to midnight, we had to. So the parents who were like at 10 were already like, can we go to bed? I get the vibe now that I've lived out in California for a couple of years, had a couple of New Year's out there that you can pretty easily celebrate the other time zones, New Year's and just call it a night very easily. There's a lot of that. You know, it's a funny thing. I do think that in some ways the West coast,

maybe LA is a little bit different, but San Francisco, the closing time of the bars is two. And so it's never been, and the trains don't go all night like they do in New York. So San Francisco doesn't quite have that same all night culture that some other cities do. Yeah, we got two o'clock here in Madison as well as the cutoff, which is, it's late enough

for this town, I think. Yeah, that's right. There's some college students that are pushing it. Yeah, the college kids have their after parties. They're fine. They got a good supply back at the house. But let's dig into these moves. Corbin Burns ends up in Arizona, six years, $210 million,

does have an opt out in there. And I didn't think about the Diamondbacks as a team that would make a splash like this. We know a ton of players live in Arizona in the off season. So being close to home is appealing, but they're not always a team that spends at a level where they can go after players like this. They did do it though, almost 10 years ago, back in December of 2015 with Zach Greinke. Greinke signed a six year, 206 million dollar deal, same ownership group. And frankly, when you think about the Greinke deal back then,

and you compare the dollars to what Burns just got this actually feels a bit like a bargain especially since it's a shorter deal they did it to give Burns an opt-out so you can leave partway through the deal if he wants to but this looks like a pretty good fit all around and one thing that really surprised me digging into Chase Field in recent years the rolling three-year park factor for home runs for left handed hitters is a 76. It's tied for the worst ballpark in baseball with Kauffman Stadium for left handed power. Now there's some interesting stuff with Burns' splits. He throws the cutter. Lefties haven't been doing a lot of damage against him from a power perspective, but

I think when you factor in how a player my age, having that in your back pocket is a nice thing to have in your home park. So a lot to unpack here, but definitely a surprising outcome for me with Burns landing in Arizona. Yeah, it's a, it has some shades of Grenke in that, you know, we didn't think Grenke was going to Arizona either. So it's kind of one of those out of left field and maybe hopefully turns out as good as the Grenke signing. I think that was one of the better big pitcher signings in recent memory. And one of the things that there's a couple of things that actually I think are parallels

here. One is that both pitchers, Corbin Burns and Zach Grenke have like a Babbitt neutralizer, have like a pitch that across baseball and specific to them has been shown to reduce balls in play, the efficacy of balls in play. For Granke, that was the power change. And for Corbin Burns, it's a cutter. Another thing that I think is underrated about Corbin Burns that people don't realize is he's a bit of a tinkerer, a little bit like Grinky. He has a sweeper that he breaks out in September every year and one year he's just going to throw it all year, you know. And I think that could be he has reverse splits because his cutter is so good. He dominates lefties and he's fine against righties but you know he

could if he's as good as that good as against lefties breaking out sweeper could make him even better against righties then you could see some return to the old strikeout rates you know there are ways to look at this negatively one nobody like six years and in six years on this one would be a bad sign because he would have opted back in after two years. And that might mean that he was hurt, you know, in one of those years. I think the highest probability is they got him for two years at a high average annual salary and that's fine.

I think that's what's going to happen. But six years is not 12 for Yamamoto, 10 for Corbin Burns, NOLA was eight, I think, or seven. There's a lot of deals. It's only like the fifth longest deal for a pitcher. And five is what like Robbie Ray and Kevin Gossman got. So if five is what medium health grade guys get, Corbin Burns is an A health grade. You know, I looked at the numbers, top 10 health grade,

you know, 96 percentile health grade, never really had issues, been a high volume guy, doesn't throw 99. You know, there's a lot of things that line up to suggest that he can do this for a while. But you know, you could say six years is, I don't like six years for pictures fine say that I think you don't get corn burns if you say that that's pretty obvious. The other thing is you know dollars per war. You know if you do the calculation we just did it before the show it's like fourteen point nine million dollars per war.

we just did it before the show it's like fourteen point nine million dollars per war and That even with inflation is a little aggressive We've been in the past. We've been around ten and we've been there's been some evidence this year that we're maybe up to eleven You know, maybe eleven plus, you know fourteen point eight is a lot But again that projection is based on Fangraph's war for pitchers which is an FIP war which means gives Corbin Burns no credit for controlling balls and play cutters over the course of history have had the lowest babble of any pitch type Corbin Burns throws a cutter he throws maybe the best putter in the game which by the way he got back late last year there was a little bit of a early season dip in the efficacy of the cutter.

He got an extra inch or two of drop and he got it back, but he throws one of the best by cutters in the game, maybe the best cutter in the game. And he's had a two 76 batting average on balls and play for his career. He's projected for a three Oh six. Cause the league average is around 300 every year. Plus maybe some sort of park factor. Now that he's in Arizona, I think that's completely wrong. You know, I think that's where the projections are going to miss on him. I think I would give him, you know, a 275 Babbit projection.

If you give him that, I'm sure his ERA drops into the mid to low threes. And I even give him maybe a return to grace on the strikeout rates given his when he had a 26% strikeout rate when the cutter was good at the end of the season and the projections are for a 24% strikeout rate. Give him a 26% strikeout rate next year, a 275 babbip, he's going to be like a 3-3 ERA stud and he's been a top four pitcher. So if you look at things that are not sort of fan grass war per dollar all that stuff and you just say hey Who's been one of the best four or five pitchers in the big leagues the last four years?

Corbin burns is this deal? What you would expect a top four or five player to get actually it's maybe a little bit lighter Yeah, I think it's it's an absolutely a fair long-term deal given all the circumstances Yeah, we did see the the k- rate tick up with the use of the sweeper and the improvement of the cutter late in the year. I think it's really hard to look at a 371 ERA projection and a 123-whip projection for burns and fully buy into that, but I think the balls and play factor

and the low strikeout rate helped to explain a lot of that. So you're thinking like a 26 to 28% K rate for Burns. I mean, maybe not elite of the elite for a starter, but still very good, especially when you factor in that workload. And given that the ballpark in Arizona for years hasn't been as hitter friendly as it was for basically the first half or so of its existence. Once they put the humidor in several years ago, that changed things a lot about how Chase Field has played. It's not the environment that it used to be that boosts offense. Yeah.

And shout out to the diamondbacks for, you know, putting together a contender, improving the team upon last year's team. Um, and not really, I don't think putting themselves in any dire financial straights, there are two players that are under contract. The longest are burns and Corbin carroll i will take that. You know it with the opt out you don't even know if you're you're you know you're you've gotten for six years corbin burns and then you know what happens next year is the jordan montgomery money drops out. And you know between jordan montgomery mary Kelly, and Eugenio Suarez, um, you actually, you lose, you lose about $40 million next year. Um, and, uh, and, and then gallons gone too.

That's 14 million this year and nailers 12 million this year. So, you know, those are good players and you'll have to replace them. But, um, the long-term, like sort of balance sheets for the diamond backs are pretty clean. I mean, this is not, this is not a team, even with the bad contracts to Edward Rodriguez and Jordan Montgomery, which sort of seemed almost a little bit desperation following desperation, where they just sort of threw money at each of them in order to like cobble together a rotation. As bad as that money may seem now, um, you know, Rodriguez has three more years, two more years after this, um,

and mutual option is not something that's going to happen. Um, so two years of, of Rodriguez, that's, that's not something that you can't overcome. Um, and he may even come back and be a usable backend pitcher. Definitely a possibility. They might even be plus one on starters right now, too. So we'll see if they eat some money and move Jordan Montgomery to trade just to get something else back that helps them on the roster. There was a question in our discord from Farnsworth about qualifying offers.

Corbin Burns was among the free agents this year that had a qualifying offer attached and when a player with a qualifying offer signs the new team in free agency, the team that lost the player gets a compensatory draft pick. There are comp round A picks, which come after round one before round two, and then comp round B picks, which come after the second round of the draft. Your comp round A picks are like pick 31 to 35, somewhere in that range typically. Bs are more like the low 70s. The question from Farnsworth was just about whether teams

might be overvaluing or even overthinking how they handle players who have that compensation attached. In the case of the Orioles, maybe being a little more comfortable letting Burn sign a big deal somewhere else, or being reluctant to sign a player that has that compensation attached because they don't want to give up a draft pick, right? So what do you think about that as a general construct and how valuations of those picks

are handled and even how players who get moved at the deadline bring back a certain value of player? How does this all kind of connect? Yeah, I mean, you could just be a strict sort of methodology guy and say, OK, you know, as Craig Edwards did on Fangrass in 2019, we can have a value on the draft pick. We can figure that out, you know, methodologically and do some research with our R&D department and have a number. And Craig Edwards said those picks are worth sort of eight to nine million dollars and so you can say if I'm signing a guy that's That's a you know got a QO attached to him I'm losing an extra nine million dollars and I have to factor that in right if I'm doing the contract now

It'd be like it's not just 210. It's actually 220 You know because because there's that extra $10 million. Um, some teams will say, well, that value of that draft pick is, you know, there's, there are probabilities around it, right? It's not just $10 million. It's like a 5% probability of a hundred million dollars. Yeah. Like,

right. It's not even dollars, right? Right. So, you know, they might say, ah, we can't give up that five percent chance of, you know, a generational player, you know, which can still happen to the back end of the first round. And I forget what was Gunnar Henderson. Wasn't he like a comp pick?

Yeah. Gunnar Henderson, I think was in that comp a range. Yeah. So like, you know, we're not giving up a chance of Gunnar Henderson, even though that happens, you know, once every six or seven years or whatever. Is the first pick around to use a 42nd overall pick, but right in the same spot. Yeah, you could get him with you. You could have gotten with your topic. And so, you know, that's why some teams will just won't do it. But I do think a team,

you know, some of the bigger teams are like more comfortable saying well we're probabilistic thinkers and the most probable outcome is that this pic is worth about ten million dollars so you know nine million dollars so we just throw that into the into the calculation and if we still like the deal with the ten million dollars accounted for. Then we do the deal you know you know it is something to think about though where we have all these models and then we're talking deal, you know? You know, it is something to think about though, where we have all these models and then we're talking about, you know, deadline deals. And, you know, there's like, I don't, I'm not trying to like make fun of a specific group of like, or site or something, but there is like a site that like, like creates like, that has like baseball trade values or things called or something. And it's like, it puts together like a like creates like, um, that has like baseball trade values, I think it's called or something.

And it's like, it puts together like a, you know, it looks at the surplus value of the pitcher, the player, and the surplus value of the prospects. And it, it rejects a lot of the deals as overpays. And well, I can run you through the math real quick. It makes total sense if you look at it this way. So let's look at the, you say, Kikuchi deal, right? And you say, Kikuchi, if he's a QO, uh, you give him a QO and he leaves, he gives you a draft pick. That's worth $10 million. We just established that. Right. So that's $10 million. What are back end prospects worth? Well, now Craig Edwards, the same guy who did this other one,

did a thing about backend prospects and what they're worth. And so he said a 45 plus, uh, 45 on the scouting scale is like, um, you know, uh, a chance of being a regular, right? It's a major leaguer. Yeah. It's a, it's a major leaguer. Um, so 45 future value would be someone who's like sort of a on the roster, but not a star, maybe not even a regular, you know? Um, he's saying their average war for the position players is one, right? That's the kind of player time off one war players.

So the value of prospect like that. Oh, look at this. It's $8 million. It's almost the same as a, as a comp pick. Well you say Kikuchi didn't go for one player, right? And if you look at Jake Bloss, him himself should have been worth the comp pick because he's a 50 on Fangrass.

And let's say, you know, the Astros have him at 45 or the Blue Jays have him at 45. If you have a 45 plus pitcher, he's worth $6 million. You put Loporfito in there who's a 45 position player, he's worth $6 million. Already, that is worth more than the comp pick. Right. Oh, the system goes up overpay, right? You know, we've got the values, we can add them up overpay.

The problem is it's not a free market and at the trade deadline. It's not like you have all the choice of all, all the free agents are all the choice of all the players. You have only the choice of the players on the bad teams that are willing to go. They basically the rentals of the bad teams. So you're not even talking about You're not even talking about 25% of the player pool. You're talking about maybe 10% of the player pool is available Maybe 5% you know and on top of that you have to beat the value of the QO You can't just equal it right or else the other team will say well, you know, whatever

We'll keep Kikuchi and take a pick, you know? So that's why the, you know, so many of these deals get rejected by that calculator and yet the market keeps telling us, no, no, this is a fine deal. Yes. They gave, you know, the blue Jays, you know, $18 million for, but they got the player, right, you know, um, and they needed the player, right? You know? Um, and they needed the player and that player was one of two good pitchers. It's already pictures really that was available at the deadline.

Yeah, it was a short list. Yeah. So like, you know, overpaying is, um, kind of a relative term. It's always, you know, if the market keeps overpaying, like you can also do dollars per war for relievers and it always looks terrible. Yeah, of course. You could say, oh, never sign a reliever. I mean, yes, there are teams that kind of do that. There are teams that kind of do that.

But you could also say, well, the market keeps saying that relievers are worth something. So maybe the market knows something more than your model right now. Right. I think that's a really good way to look at. but I think the Kikuchi trade for Blas Lo Profito and Will Wagner is like, okay, yeah, you have to beat the qualifying offer for players that you would tender a qualifying offer to. That's the starting point to get a deal done. And then the trade deadline is like, I don't know,

maybe trying to buy a sandwich at the airport. You're not getting a typical sandwich. It's gonna be a little lower in quality, a little higher in price, a little higher in price, a lot higher in price. But it's the only sandwich you're going to get in the terminal. So you're going to pay extra for it because you

really want that sandwich. So yeah, Kikuchi's a sandwich. That's the way I find it. What kind of sandwich would you say Kikuchi means? No, we're not going to go back to the old sandwich debates of 10 years ago on Twitter. We're not going to do that, but do teams overreact to it?

Yeah, I mean, I think some might. I think it hurts you more if you're kind of a mid-level free agent with the qualifying offer compensation attached, where if you're a two or three year guy who's going to be 15 to 20 million per year, those players I think are the guys you're like, we're not going to have this guy for that long. The surplus value compared to other players that we could get isn't that high. We don't necessarily want to give up the draft pick and pay the premium for this type of player. I think that's where a lot of teams are more reluctant. I don't think the Orioles were happy to let Burns go

because of the draft pick they're going to get back as compensation. I think this was more of a maybe they made their best offer. happy to let Burns go because of the draft pick they're going to get back as compensation. I think this was more of a, maybe they made their best offer and Arizona was home and they topped it and that's the whole story, right? There'll always be losers in free agency. I don't think this was a, we'd rather have the draft pick than Corbin Burns sort of situation, but a great question from Varnsworth. I think it does hurt.

The players you're talking about, Tiasca Hernandez and Anthonysworth. I think it does hurt. The players you're talking about, Teasca Hernandez and Anthony Santander, I think are most hurt by the qualifying offer. Yeah, Nick Martinez accepted it this year. Willi Adames had one. Burns had one. Fried, Severino, Soto, Christian Walker, Manaya.

Teasca Hernandez did have one. Yeah. I think it hurt him because he signed a deal that's worth about $11 million by war. I think like a $66 million deal for three, uh, for three years of a guy who just had a one 34 WRC plus and has had a one 30 plus WRC plus four of the last five seasons is a little light, you know?

Um, but, uh, you know, the defense isn't great. He's 32. He may not age super well. We'll see. But, um, I think the, the, the pick did hurt him. Did Santander have one or not? Santander did. Yeah.

Yeah. So Santander, I think is definitely also going to be, uh, hurt by this because, because it's not three years and 66 million for the Dodgers or for the Dodgers. It is for everybody else. It's three years and 75 million, you know, or 76 million, uh, once you do the math. So if you think, you know, I think Santander is, is not, um, I think he's, he's close. I think Tosca is better than Santander. And, um, so And so if he's looking at three year, $66 million deals, he would be looking at something

at least $10 million higher if he didn't have that QO on. Right, and the length of the contract and the value of the contract, the value's really important. If the deal is for 50 million or more, then the compensatory pick goes in that round A after the first round. If it's less than 50 million, that's when you get that later round B pick that I was talking about earlier. So that's the tricky part because if you and I were looking at

Santander, we're probably saying, oh yeah, two for 44, two for like under 50 is what we would really be aiming for anyway. And he's looking for more. So that just makes it even more complicated. It creates this tension between the players actual value and what they're seeking and what teams are comfortable doing. That's where I feel like it really bites a certain group of players in free agency.

But it's also not something that's gonna come up in the CBA and have a lot of value because the number of players it does affect is so small. Yeah like if you're the union you don't care as much about that because that's like four players a year get a little bit screwed and you got well I've got a whole bunch of players here I'd rather have the minimum salary be up I'd rather have you know. Younger players played better I'd rather take a year of arbitration off or something like that. You know, that would help so many more people. Yeah, exactly. The issue, the weight of that issue is relatively small in the CBA negotiations. I use the New York Times games app every single day. I love playing connections with connections. I need to twist my brain to see the different categories. I think I know this connection. Look, Bath is a city in England,

Sandwich is a city in England, Reading is a city in England, and I'm gonna guess Derby is a city in England. I started Wordle 194 days ago and I haven't missed a day. The New York Times games app has all the games right there. I absolutely love spelling B. I always have to get genius. I've seen you yell at it and say that should be a word. Totally should be a word. Sudoku is kind of my version of lifting heavy weights at the gym.

At this point, I'm probably more consistent with doing the crossword than brushing my teeth. When I can finish a hard puzzle without pins, I feel like the smartest person in the world. When I have to look up a clue to help me, I'm learning something new. It gives me joy every single day. Start playing in the New York When I have to look up a clue to help me, I'm learning something new. It gives me joy every single day. Start playing in the New York Times Games app. You can download it at nytimes.com slash games app. Let's talk about Tiasca Hernandez for a second though. It gets three years to stay with the Dodgers.

Another big part of his story is he wanted to stay there. I don't think he was looking to go anywhere else. I think the long-term value is steady, right? I think this is probably from a redraft fantasy perspective, going to bump up where Teoscar goes in drafts. I thought he was the worst chaser. I thought he was a Josh Hamilton-esque guy. You know, I thought he was, you know, just like in my head, I'm like, oh yeah, he's a chaser, you know, he's not that bad.

No, no kind of like league average and think in terms of O swing percentage, right? 32.8% last year. That's right around his career. Number does a lot of damage because he's always hit the ball very hard. He can run a little bit. Swings in this a little bit. That's, that's where I get, you know, the K minus BB, which isn't something that matters. The same for every player. You know, it's not like pitching and pitching came on. It's BB is like so powerful for hitting.

It doesn't tell the whole story, you know, because of, because of what you can do once you put the ball in play, you know? But his, his, his walk in strikeout rates are not very good. And if there's a problem for him going forward, it's, it's that. Right. If he's nudging up into the low 30s and K rate in year one of this deal, then the end might be a little ugly. But if he can hold the plate skills that he showed during his first season with the Dodgers, then maybe only the very

end of the deal is a little bit of a problem. I think he's going to be fine. I think the surprising thing for me is that we know Teasker Hernandez is not a great defender, plays in the corners. He makes things a lot more crowded on that depth chart because one of the early things the Dodgers did is they went out and got Michael Conforto in free agency. So you've got Conforto, you've got Teasca back there, Otani's the DH. When he's not pitching, he's DHing all the time, right? So you've got a crowd in the corners and at DH now. And I think this really is the complete signal

that I was looking for. They're serious about Mookie Betts playing on the dirt. Like this is the way this has to go now. And it's really unfortunate for my boy Andy Pahez who I had circled as somebody I was excited about this year. Pahez has done a lot of good work with decent strikeout rates, really good walk rates and the miners that haven't poured it over the majors yet. Good top end exit velocities, good hard hit rates.

I think he can be a really good player. I think he's way better than like an outman, you know, I don't think this is another sort of flash in the pan. And I still think that Pa has might get a shot, but now with the way the depth charts are handing uh the landing for him they're handing him 250 plate appearances which I can't necessarily argue with I want to like you know put Edmund at short and Betts at second but then I then Lux is like you know a little bit better than a utility player, I think. And I'm doing all this to put Pahez in center and thin out my outfield, which is fairly thin if Betz is on the dirt. Right. So Pahez looks like he's the fourth outfielder and he's like a

like a fourth, fourth outfielder, not like a fourth outfielder who plays almost like a third outfielder. This is he seems like he's been relegated to fourth outfielder status. He's going to need to wait for he's going to be a big, you know, free agency pickup in fantasy leagues in the middle of the season when somebody gets hurt. Michael Conforto hasn't gone over 500 played appearances in a season since 2019. It's only a one year deal.

I don't think it's the end of the right hander. So like there's a natural platoon situation there for sure. Right. I think that's that's going to be the main thing. Pa Hayes does. It's disappointing if you were hoping he could carve out a near everyday role. For sure. He would be the clear loser. Which I thought before some of these before the two signings in tandem. Conforto, you know, a lot of the bad ball stats are going the right direction.

I don't think it's a terrible signing. 17 was a little bit more than I think some people thought he would get. And he's, he's it's 17 million for a guy who's projected for less than two war. But the nice thing with Conforto is like, you know, under the hood, best sort of batted ball stats, um, maybe of his career, you know, if you kind of look at it as a whole, you know, second best hard hit rate and then only second to his like 194 plate appearance rookie season.

You know, so like basically the best hard hit rate, basically the second best barrel rate and the second best max EV kind of situation. So he looks like his shoulder is healthy and maybe they push him even you know maybe he sees some left handers I don't know depends on how good he's hitting I guess they've got depth that's that's the thing the Dodgers definitely have already with some of the moves they've made quickly this winter I can give you were looking at Dalton rushing as someone that was going to play a little bit more he

has to be the backup catcher now he's not going to really get a lot of reps in the outfield with the way they are building this roster. It's so hard to break into these situations. And this is something that like comes up sometimes with the Yankees and even the Dodgers where people say, oh, how good are they are developing players? And you know, we got a little bit of this from And, you know, we got a little bit of this from, Philip Stringer in our interview at the winter meetings. Remember he was talking about the Dodgers and he's like, we pushed him to say who he'd signed

and he's like, well, it's kind of hard to sign someone who makes it on the Dodgers. You know? And when you look at the Dodgers depth chart, you're like, oh man, what if I was a, like a top prospect in the Dodgers organization right now? I'd just be like, God, everywhere the last, yeah.

The last top prospect that was coming up through the organization that is on this depth chart, that might be a starter somewhere as Gavin Lux, he was untouchable and trades and all this stuff and it's taken him this long. And I don't think he's even had a two war season yet. No, he said one last year, the 2022 was a 2.7. So he said one, two war season. He's never had more than 500 plate appearances with the Dodgers. So if you're, if you're like a Yankees or Dodgers prospect, I feel like you're

just, you're waiting for a trade. I think you're just in one of those spots where because of the resources they have to fill holes and get upgrades on the big league roster, it's just a tougher path through and you're almost more likely to be traded into a role than you are to earn one within the organization. And maybe that's the way it goes for Pae. Maybe he ends up getting an everyday role somewhere else. Still lots of winter to go and maybe they want a bullpen upgrade or something else for that roster instead. Nationals staying pretty busy. So two things they did. They signed Josh Bell to a one year deal. This is just on the heels of the Nathaniel Lowe trade that we talked about on our last episode. So their first base DH situation got a lot better.

A couple of veterans, nothing flashy, but just two guys that are solid players that add some depth to their lineup. And then they had Trevor Williams back into the rotation on a two year deal. And I couldn't explain to anybody how Williams did what he did last season in a partial season before injuries shut him down. It looked really good. A two or three era, a 104 whip, 59 K's and 66 in two thirds innings did a great job keeping the ball in the park, suspiciously good just in the sense of like, I don't think that's his true talent home run rate given

what we've seen from over the course of his career, but probably just the number four, number five starter who absolutely like maxed out in terms of good fortune with that home run rate and a couple of other things. The Babbitt was really good last year. All that is to say the Nationals just keep getting better with depth and on the margins. Like they look like a team that will be at least a thorn in the side of the rest of the division this year. I don't know if they're a playoff team in 2025, but I like the moves they've been making. Yeah. His regular projection is for a four or five ERA. His stuff plus base projection is for a four

or eight ERA. So I, and even when they, the when they, some of the news that around the signing was like, he'll start the season as a starter. It's like kind of an ominous thing for someone to say. Yeah, at least to begin, you know, a two year, fourteen million dollar deal is also not a deal that necessarily screams starter. So I would slot him in as the fifth starter. And that's ahead of Kate Cavalli, you know, Mike Soroka and Josiah Gray and any other sort of pop up prospect type starter and pitchers that may come up through the through the miners for them. So, you know, I thought they could be a dark horse for Burns. I don't know that, you know, there's enough left.

Is there is there a pitcher left that would move the needle for them on the open market? I mean, Flaherty would be a nice fit for them. It's just the different it's the next notch down for sure compared to the top end guys they could have gone after. Yeah, it doesn't it doesn't strike me like a Scherzer, you know, deal. Right. And maybe they'll just keep their powder dry and they see somebody for next year that they're, they're excited about. You know,

Josh Bell was a two regular average, you know, player, two war player, two win player for them last time. That was actually his last good year by wins above replacement was his year with Washington since then he's really declined with a bat the last two years for Josh Bell he's in barely above league average of the bat and then showed the worst glove of his career and been basically a replacement level player. This kind of deal, one year, six million dollars deal is,

you know, is suggesting that he could be when he could be a half win DH. So I don't know that it's a big deal. I don't like it so much because I kind of like I'm going to want to get this guy. Yeah, you want to see what you could do. And Andres Chaparro has been in there. There are a few guys they had breaking through in the second half last season that would probably get a pretty good cut of their playing time taken away, at least to begin the season. Now the Bell's there.

Yeah, yeah. And if they I mean, if they do something funny and add and add Bregman, then, you know, all this kind of youth that they borderline youth that they've acquired through like waiver claims and small deals. Like you mentioned, Shaparo, Jose Tanya, um, and Juan Yepes, these weren't major deals that brought them in. Uh, but they do each have some skills and I think have the upside of being average everyday players, um, for real cheap, right?

That's something that every team wants. And so I think they'll stay out of the Bregman race and leave third base. Third base is the land of opportunity in Washington. Jacob Young is one of the elite defenders. I think he holds onto that spot despite poor offense. You've got James Wood and Dylan Cruz. That's, you know, C.J. Abrams, Luis Garcia, Jr.

that, you know, Nate Lowe, that's all that's all locked down. I think maybe Josh Bell, there's still a little glimmer of opportunity. He comes out and he's around the average of the bat as the D.H. That's not enough. And if one year and six million dollar deal, you can cut him. So there's some opportunity to DH still, but third base between Tanya, Chaparro, and I don't know, House, Brady House,

because I don't think Yepez can play third. Who do you like? I think I like Tana for the shorter term at least. I mean, House, once he's ready, he's probably the guy that's gonna take over that spot. But Tanya looked good last year. There was power, there was speed. That was a triple A Columbus.

I thought he sort of held his own during his brief time in the big leagues with the Nats. I think this is a guy. 23. So yeah, give them a look. Not like a 30 year old who came in and put an 83 WRC plus and was, it was only okay. I mean, it's 23. That's, that's a decent debut. Yeah, it was just first real exposure to big league pitching and stole some bases,

had a little bit of pop. It wasn't flashy in terms of the line, but I wouldn't expect a 23 year old to just come up and hit the ground running. He's not it's not like a top 100 prospect, but he's definitely someone who has a much better path now with the Nats than he had when he was in Cleveland, where that infield is just a it's always just a revolving door, kind of a mess, trying to find a spot, trying to break through there. House is really weird, dude.

What's weird about him? Well, so he's got like a 50 future value from Fangraphs, and Fangraphs is putting him with like 40% of the playing time at third base this year. And Rotowire has some news that Mark Zuckerman is saying that house could take over by the start as it started in third base by the end of the year. So like, this is like one of those things where they, Oh, draft and holds or dynasty leagues. We should be acquiring this guy. 21 year old with opportunity. There's a place for him.

60 to 70 raw power, um, by Fangrass. I don't see it. I don't know what that, where is that 60 to 70 raw power by Fangraphs. I don't see it. I don't know what that... Where is that 60 to 70 raw power? It's not... I mean, maybe it's only in batting practice, because... And to be fair to Fangraphs, they have 35 to present 60 future game power. So they're saying he's going to grow into it.

But I don't know. I mean, I would like to see some more demonstrated power he had a 125 ISO at AAA last year even for the year which includes his AA to 161 ISO now in the major leagues a 155 is about average for isolated slugging which is slugging percentage minus batting average and that's he's doing that in AAA so he wouldn't be expected to even put up Major League average power. We're talking about third base here. So he has to be a great defender.

For the minor leagues last year, he was a 91 WRC+, so he was almost 10% worse than average. Now you can give him some credit as a 21-year-old, but how much credit do you give him? I think that I like him the least this year. Maybe long term, there's more there. But this year, I think I might like Andres Chaparro. You know, I just see the demonstrated power is better and he's got a really nice, you know, strikeout rate to power ratio. Like, I love when guys don't strike out much and show power.

And I know he's probably the dark horse, especially because, you know, Fangrass puts him very low on that depth chart and gives him 42 plate appearances for the year. But I kind of think that might be wrong. I like Chaparro better than Lipscomb, who's ahead of him on that chart. I think Shapiro could be better this year than Brady House. And so I think it's Shapiro versus Tana for that third base situation.

And I believe Tana has options and Shapiro might not. Tana has one option and Shapiro has three. Okay, so Shapiro might just get sent down to be depth, but there's something I like about him. That's a file for later name. I think I agree with the attainment takes the job, but I wouldn't be surprised if Shapiro gets a shot at some point. Maybe if they release a bell, Shapiro is the first guy up.

I'm kind of pumped for the Nationals team preview once it rolls around, which isn't something I would have expected to say this time last year about the club. I think there's a lot more happening sooner with them. Did you take James Wood in your inner draft that you're doing right now? Yeah, doing a draft and hold right now. And James Wood in the fourth round. Wow. Yeah, 15 teamers. So right around like the pick.

Fifty five range. Yeah, that's pretty he's pretty exciting. I right around like the pick. 55 range. Yeah, that's pretty, he's pretty exciting. I mean, he hits the ball super hard. So I got rates a little bit high, but you know, he was fast. He stole bases. If he lifts the ball at all, like you could have a 30, 20 season on your hands. Yeah. He, he kind of jumped off the page to me when I was looking, I mean, like those are really good swing decisions for a guy that has a big strike zone making his big league debut, 22.9% swing.

I think the concern I had because the, some of the K rates in the minors were high, up over 30%, I thought, maybe he's just too much of a free swinger. I don't think that's James Wood at all. I think it's just- In fact, he could be, he could benefit maybe from being more aggressive.

Yeah. Yeah, I agree with that. I think there's just, there's a lot of ways he can be good. I think they want to see him thrive and they're just gonna let him play every single day. So it was a little risky in round four, but that's kind of like a pocket where I have been too cautious

with either breakthrough prospects that are coming up or guys that debuted and been skeptical in the past. And sometimes those guys turn to first and second rounders right before our eyes. I think that's a possibility for Wood. You know, with the playing time floor that he's got, I think the worst case scenario is you get a guy who hits 220, struggles. I mean, it's possible they send him down. But this is this strikes me a little bit more like the Ellie situation where it's like, why would the Nationals send James Wood down? I mean it had to be really bad

That's sort of like a Cardinals thing with with Jordan Walker But the Cardinals are we're trying to be good and so it was like annoying to have Jordan Walker be up there and be struggling Right, the Nationals will be like, okay. Well, we're gonna be a 500 team this year. We're building towards something You don't have to we don't be great this year And so we're gonna let you play all year. And if it ends up being a year where you hit two 20 with 22 homers and 18 steals, that's not going to be far off of fourth round town. I mean, like, I think the worst case scenario is you get like a $7 player.

Yeah, that could, that could happen, but he broke AAA and James would crush AAA and he was a 30, 30 pace in 52 games, 76% better than league average with nearly a 60% hard hit rate, which is just absurd. I don't think there was anything he was going to learn staying there. I don't think there's anything he really learned going back there. Yeah. So that's, that's kind of why I was like, all right, let's just, let's see where this goes. Let's see if you can lift the ball more consistently.

And even if he doesn't, it could be 18 to 20 homers right now with the 30 steals that you mentioned. Like that's absolutely possible. He didn't even hurt us in batting average when he debuted a 264, 354, 427 debut for a 21 year old that had some strikeout concerns. That's a great debut.

So yeah, I was pretty excited to take him in the fourth round. We'll talk a lot about our, our draft and holds were written on the clock season again. It's back. I know you bought a three pack, right? You jumped right back in. Yeah, I'm going to, I just can't, I can't figure out how to, how to buy a three. Okay. There's something about the, the, the, the signup process that makes me want to pick it makes it's, it's, it's like forcing me to pick a draft time. No, you're probably using an old browser or something.

Maybe I'm going to have to, I'm going to have to figure this out. I feel like an old man, but I, yeah, I'm going to, I'm going to be, I'm going to dive in right now. Uh, I think this is the time to, to, as we start preparing for the positional previews and all the stuff that we're going to be doing here at rates and barrels I need to be means testing my actual opinions. Yeah, we get about two weeks before the position previews begin. A couple of small news items want to fly through these. Tell me if any of these matter.

We've got Josh Rojas landing with the White Sox, maybe a lot of playing time there. A Matt Mervis Vidal Brujjan swap. Brujjan is a Cub now. Mervis is a Marlin and a possible six man rotation in Boston. Do any of those things matter to you? A little bit everywhere. I mean, you know, when you're playing these deeper leagues, you're you like, especially Rojas with multiple eligibility's. He should be able to give you

second base and third base In your in most leagues And some leagues outfielders well when you get somebody that can give you a couple positions And looks like he has an everyday job that he becomes really valuable in draft and holds where you just need to have your backup on your roster. And I think that that could be what Rojas goes into, but I just don't like, um, depending on a 30 year old who has kind of lost his, like hasn't been a regular for two years to go to a rebuilding team and then become

a regular again, I think it's much more likely that he's like their opening day third baseman and then by a month in somebody else has taken it from him. I don't know if Miguel Vargas has the glove. We've seen some really bad glove from him plus some just really bad play in general, which is sort of surprised me. But they also have Brian Ramos and you know at you know 22 with some major league experience and you know a bunch of time at double A and and triple a I think he's you know there's not much for him to do in the minor leagues anymore.

They even got Brooks Baldwin that you know you know depending on what happens at second base chase Medroth. Um, and Brooks Baldwin are there. So they they're just collecting guys. And so if you're Rojas, like you're keeping that seat warm and it could be that situation where you're like, Oh, I'm just taking them to improve my second base and third base depth. Um, and when you actually need him, he's not on the roster. He's a backup, you know, is this, uh, this roster is something like the white socks preview is going to be a educational experience for a lot of folks.

There's going to be a lot of hemming and hawing, dude. I mean, like, like what, what am I supposed to do with Zach Deloach, Oscar Colas and Miguel Vargas at DH? I think you're supposed to just let that play out and keep it a safe distance away from your teams. I think that's the. Oh my God. But there's opportunity.

There's gonna be opportunity on that team. So this is a depth chart you have to figure out. That's one of the things that I think people often, one of the easiest mistakes of an early fancy player is to say, well, the White Sox are bad. I don't need to worry too much about them. They don't have any good players. Well, that means there's opportunity and somebody's going to take that opportunity.

It's going to be really cheap. So if you like Davis Martin's super change up, I like Sean Burke, you know, the pitcher, you know, he's he's kind of wild, but I like Sean Burke. There's going to be they have to have a closer, you know, like at some point. So, you know, you have to make your decisions about it. Um, you know, speaking of depth charts, the Red Sox thing, um, you know, just kind of, uh, it makes sense to me. Cause you've got Giulietto coming off of, uh, Tommy John surgery.

You've got crochet. He want to keep healthy. Um, I don't even think, you know, Bueller is not, you know, a max innings guy. Um, and you do have decent, decent depth now that you've signed Walker Bueller and you have G Lido coming back. Um, you've got Bayo, how and cutter Crawford who kind of cut their teeth last year and proved that they were major league pitchers, right? And so, you know, you've got six.

Good pitchers and you even have seven, eight and nine with, you know, Fitz and Criswell and Sandoval when he comes back. So you actually created enough depth for yourself where you can do this and it'll keep people healthy. Now it will cost you some top end starts from crochet, but you, I don't think you would go into the season saying we're going to get, you know, 32 starts from Garrett crochet this year. You know? So if you already put that out, um, then you kind of want to keep him healthy. You want to keep everybody healthy.

You want to limit there, you know, I think there's a little bit of a dodgers model happening here, um, where they're, they, they want some top end guys. They want some depth guys that they're trying as hard as they can to develop these guys in the minor leagues so they always have a replacement and they are focusing more of their money on offense and just enough money at bullpen to be good. I mean this is I think an underrated team. This is a team that's going in the right direction. Right, I think if you want to be healthy come playoff time,

especially with Garrett Crochet, making sure you limit the wear and tear of a long regular season on him as he continues that multi-year sort of transition into being a frontline starter, I think that's a smart way to go about it. So it definitely makes sense. Cause you're very, it's very unlikely

you'll get a two-start week out of a Red Sox pitcher. You know, that means also they're going to play some shenanigans where they have a guy announced and then, oh, we're actually going to push G Lito and it's, you know, Chriswell, you know, pop up start and you've and you've put G Lito and you're in your lineup for the week, you know, so there's going to be some annoying factors there, but you know, that level of annoyance, um, is sort of average around the league these days. You know, just hoping that your starter makes the start is definitely something

that happens, especially in September. I don't know how many times you're like, do we put them in the lineup? Like, do we think he'll actually make that start, especially with two starters on like in certain situations, you're like, I don't think they're, I think he'll actually make that start? Especially with two starters in certain situations, you're like, I don't think they're, I think by the time the second start rolls around, they'll have some reason to sit him or somebody else's whatever is happening. So it's annoying, but it's only a sort of regular annoyance.

And then with the Marlins, they've got a type. They're doing a little bit of an A's type thing where they are getting guys who are quad A sluggers that have good projections. So if you talk about kind of oldish quad A sluggers, Griffin Konine, 27 years old, has been better, like 15% better than the average in AAA the last couple years. Kyle Stowers is 27 years old, has been, what has he been, 118, 136 WRC plus at AAA the last couple seasons. Matt Mervis is now 26 years old and he's had a 132 WRC plus in triple-a in 2023 only 97 last year So there is a question of what's going on with Mervis's strikeout rate? And I guess since those other guys had better seasons more recently you kind of have to put them behind You have to put him behind conine and stowers, but

positionally he's behind Jonah Bride, who is 29. He had a decent season last year, but I don't really believe in him. He does not have the power of a first baseman in terms of the batter ball stats. He did hit 11 homers in half a season last year, but he kind of strikes me as a stopgap first baseman. So if Mervis maybe starts in the minor leagues, he could take this job from Jonah Bride pretty easily, in my opinion. Yeah, it's another one of those depth charts. Plenty of opportunity in Miami.

As is often the case, we had some mailbag questions that are related to some of the topics we've talked about on today's show though. Daniel wanted to know, under the radar of first baseman, there's another guy in Miami, Augustin Ramirez. He's listed as a catcher too, but I think he could be one of those everyday guys that actually does both.

You know, it's crowded, but it's not necessarily blocked the way that a good depth chart is. So what do you think about Ramirez as someone that could find a lot of playing time in Miami this year? Yeah, he's really interesting. I mean, 23 years old and as a catcher, you say, oh, you know, maybe he won't you won't make it. He's a part of the jazz chism return. Maybe he won't make it right away.

Like, maybe it'll take a long time, but he's been playing in the minor leagues for a long time you know. Twenty nineteen rookie ball so he's got lots of experience catching and last year in a full season of my lease get twenty five homers with a nineteen percent strikeout rate. You know one thirteen max eevee basically like i you know one thirty wRC plus so 30% better than the average he's ready to go and you know Nick Fortes is somebody who's had great bat speed metrics but has never really turned it into anything he seems like he has a real hard time sort of squaring it up his bat swings fast but doesn't produce much noise and we're you know, we're nine hundred and thirty two plate appearances into Nick Fortes being a really bad hitter.

So at some point, the bat speed doesn't matter as much. And you're just like, I don't know, it's not working. The other guy's Liam Hicks, who's twenty five, you know, thirty five future value prospect by Fangraph. So there's some opportunity behind the plate. I don't think he'll start the season with the team because you've got at first base, you've got Jonah Bride, Matt Murvis, David De Los Santos, who hits the ball super hard. You still have Grant Powley.

They even picked up the Wagaman who was on the Angels last year, Eric Wagamon. So they've got so many people to run through that if you've got options, this is gonna turn into a little bit of a raise situation where if you've got options, you're more likely to be in the minors because they're gonna want, they're trying to acquire talent. And if you don't have options, the best way to see if they have acquired something is to play you in the major leagues until you prove that you're no good. Then they release you and go back to the Miami guys. So Ramirez, because he has options, will will probably be in the minor leagues to start

the season at least. Yeah, probably a little more of a second half play, I think, for the Marlins as they sort through some of those options. Pavin Smith was the other name that was mentioned in Daniel's email. I think with Josh Naylor being acquired from the Guardians, you could see the Diamondbacks using Naylor more as the primary DH. I think it's sort of a question of how they want to align their defense. Do they want to play Carroll, Thomas, and McCarthy all at once and then use L Lordis Gurriel as the DH, or do they want to put Gurriel on the outfield, sit one of McCarthy or Thomas, and then use Naylor as the DH and possibly play Pavin Smith?

Smith did take some steps forward with the underlying metrics last year, but I wondered how much of his success was just being used in sort of an optimal platoon sort of way. Yeah, I do like P uh, Pavin Smith. Um, you know, I think Spencer Horowitz is going to get a good shot. I don't know how deep to go with questions like this, you know, um, you know, Spencer Horowitz is somebody that has a top 10 WRC plus projection, you know, um, and might be projected for low playing time, four2 played appearances in Pittsburgh. If he does have a 119 WRC plus Pittsburgh will play him every day. So, you know, I think that's, that's someone that's interesting.

You know, down, down lower. I think Luke rarely gets too much crap, but in weekly leagues, I get it a little bit because he's, he's going to sit against most lefties, but he's got a 111 WRC plus projection plus 19 homers and nine stolen bases for Rayleigh. If it has to be deeper than that, yes, then I start to like Pavin Smith. I want to know where Ty France ends up. I want to, you know, circle that Washington depth chart, kind of go through some of those players. Juan Yepes still has a 104 W. W. RC plus projection, which is, I think, better than Josh Bell's.

It's about the same as Josh Bell's. So, you know, it does look and Baker get a chance in St. Louis. You know, those are the names that that I'm kind of circling. Yeah, I keep wondering, too. Could this be the year Tyler Soderstrom puts it all together for the A's? Like, I think he's been an up and down guy to the first two seasons. But there's a lot to like there from a prospect perspective.

He's done really well at Triple A, especially this past season. There's only 33 games in Las Vegas, but 279, 385, 607 line, he popped 10 homers in those 33 games, and he's still really young. It's the guy that just is 23 years old. So I could see Soderstrom maybe coming out of relative nowhere from an ADP perspective and ending up being an okay option at first base. It's one of those positions though, that now that I'm

in round 15 of a league, I don't like waiting forever for my first one. I think it's a little more of an early round priority for me. There are some there's some guys you can talk yourself into. Like right now I'm in a pocket where I'm looking at Michael Bush, Nathaniel Lowe, Andrew Vaughn, Reese Hoskins, and they're all kind of fine. They're all going to come in in the 500 at bat range. One of them might even be an everyday guy that goes off for 25 or 30 homers. But if you're wrong, you're going to be hurting.

Yeah. And if you don't get one of those, you're really hurting. But if you wait too long, like you're in a, you're, it's, that's a little bit close to last chance to the moon for getting a starting first baseman. Right. You know, and if you, if you, if you pass that, you're going to be looking at, you know, Andrew Vaughn and Josh Bell and Carlos Santana and being like, what did I do? Yeah, that's that's the feeling I get right now. Like, OK, this needs to be fixed right now. That next level down at this position is really thin because those guys rarely offer defensive value. They can just lose their playing time really quickly. They can be in platoons. They can value, they can just lose their playing time really quickly. They can be in platoons, they can get DFA'd and landed pitch

hitters like. Yeah, it sucks for in draft and holds you. You kind of want to get your second and third first baseman a little bit earlier than you expect to because you know, there are too many guys that won't play all week, you know, and you don't want to end up with. many guys that won't play all week, you know, and you don't want to end up with. I don't know. Did you did you learn Mayhew is your third first baseman?

Would you? I don't think so. I don't think he's an everyday player this year. We got a bunch of other mailbag questions we're going to get to in the weeks ahead, so keep on sending those in. You can send those in via Discord. You can send them email rates and barrelsbarrels.gmail.com. That's a little spammy these days. So the discord is actually a little easier,

but the spammy Gmail option will absolutely work. If you want to go that route, you can find us on blue sky, enos at enosaris.besky.social, I am dvr.besky.social. Ooh, I see some notifications on discord. I gotta get in there. Yeah, you gotta get back in there. I mean, it's the holiday break. So we're off the holiday break. We'll be in there a lot more. Be sure to join using the link in the show

description if you haven't done that already. That's going to do it for this episode of Rates and Barrels. We're back with you next week. Thanks for watching!