Rates & Barrels - Division Series Matchup Breakdown

Episode Date: October 4, 2024

Eno and DVR discuss the Mets' thrilling comeback win over the Brewers to advance to the NLDS -- and Eno looks ahead and what's next for Milwaukee in 2025 -- before they take a look at each of the four Division Series matchups getting underway Saturday. Rundown 1:36 Pete Alonso Hits a Series-Winning Homer 9:22 Eno Looks Ahead at the Brewers' 2025 15:37 Key Questions in Mets-Phillies Matchup 26:30 A Possible Role for Kodai Senga In This Round? 31:09 Key Questions in Tigers-Guardians Matchup 39:51 A Closer Look: Potential Game Plan for Tigers v. Tanner Bibee 47:03 Does the AL's Off-Day Schedule Help Kansas City? 55:23 Key Questions in Padres-Dodgers Matchup Follow Eno on Twitter: @enosarris Follow DVR on Twitter: @DerekVanRiper e-mail: [e-mail] Join our Discord: https://discord.gg/FyBa9f3wFe Subscribe to The Athletic: theathletic.com/ratesandbarrels Hosts: Derek VanRiper & Eno Sarris Producer: Brian Smith Executive Producer: Derek VanRiper Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

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Plus keep up with the game's future stars on the Friday Prospect series. Whether we're diving deep on one topic, discussing the latest news, or breaking down last night's OT winner, you can't miss a single episode. Listen to the Athletic Hockey Show wherever you get your podcasts. Plug the rates and barrels, it's Friday, October 4th. Derek and Rhyper, Enocerous here with you. On this episode we discuss the fourth and final team advancing through the wild card round, the Mets, doing it in thrilling fashion against the Brewers. We'll talk about all four Division Series matchups, all four of those series get underway on Saturday.

So tons of baseball lined up for Saturday. We'll talk about some of the quirks of the schedule that might lead to a few opportunities for teams with extra off days during the upcoming round as well. Time permitting, we'll take a look at what's next for the Brewers as well. Lot to cover with those four series. So if that doesn't happen today, it will happen on an upcoming episode.

And before we get started, you know, just a quick announcement you may have seen on Twitter from last weekend, our good friend Trevor May and his wife welcomed their son into the world last weekend. Baby mom and dad are doing great. If you followed Trevor on Twitter, you've seen they've already started watching baseball and in that young man's life, he's seen some pretty exciting games already. Congrats to Trevor. I'm sure baseball will be a big part of his child's life. Seems inevitable, right? That's kind of just the way that it goes. Now, things have been a little rough in the Van Riper household in the last 14 hours or so, and it's mostly courtesy

of Pete Alonso. As you can see, the Mets did it again, another massive we factor. The Brewers getting everything they wanted as far as having a lead in the ninth inning, a two run lead at home with Devin Williams entering the game, but top of the order for the Mets came through. I think this is one of those situations where it's like, beyond the Alonzo home run itself, which had a momentary tease for a lot of Brewers fans out there because as that ball was on its way out, there was the shot where you could see Sal Freelick tracking back.

And if you're a Brewers fan who's watched this team the last several years, you've seen a ton of great catches pulling back home runs. Freelix had some, Blake Perkins has had them, Lorenzo Canes had some and you thought for just a fleeting split second that maybe Freelik was gonna do something amazing and pull it back then you realized, no that wasn't gonna be a catchable ball and in fact it was going to send the Mets into the NLDS but it feels to me like the moment where it started to unravel was being ahead of Francisco Lindor 1-2 and not having the fastball command to finish off that sequence right. I know there's a tipping video that John Boyd put out there so that's part of the equation

too. You have an elite closer with two very good pitches, but when he loses one, that could make unpredictable. And if he was giving something away, then that's curtains. That's going to do it against a high quality top of the lineup like the Mets had. Yeah, in terms of location, if you look at the very few homers that have ever been hit off of his crazy pitch, the airbender, they're all high in the zone.

I'm not saying high, like, you know, top third. I'm just saying like, you know, not kind of falling off the table. Right. Not in the lower third of the zone and not necessarily the middle third, but the kind of space between the middle third, the lower third. Right. Like that, that line. And we know Pete Alonso is a great low ball hitter too. So that's another little wrinkle that you kind of worried about watching that matchup. Seven homers in 2395.

Yep. Sure. Airbenders thrown. Seven hom a point oh six six ISO so Doesn't happen often. I do think that Alonzo in some ways is uniquely suited for that Homer Because it takes really top-end power to go oppo And he has that top-end power and what that allowed him to do was wait on it and he basically allowed him to do was wait on it. And he basically waited on the change. So maybe he was tipped off to it, or maybe he just thought, this is probably the change,

I'm gonna wait on it. If it's the fastball, maybe I can still drag my bat through real quick and foul it off. But he was thinking Oppo, he thinks Oppo. He was one of the few people that won the home run derby hitting opposite field homers So that was lined up for his strengths. There's a lot of made of you know, he was pretty poor down the stretch And I even saw a little hype video where they put together

You know, it's the foibles of you know the last couple weeks of Peter Pete Alonso as a Met and even Boo Shambi every time he stepped to the plate late in that game was, this might be the last time Pete Alonso, you know, takes a swing as a Met. And I played around with the game log. And I think, you know, people do this a lot actually, because there's, you know, people emphasizing how many plate appearances since he hit his last homer, which means you're just really just moving the game log along to find it.

But I think I found it. And the last 37 plate appearances of the regular season, he did not homer, he had 133 and 297, 133 slugging, and had a 46 WRC plus. And earlier in that game, even, there was a foul out that he should have caught that he didn't. And this all ends

up on the on the highlight reel to to to emphasize how he turned things around but i don't know man like i think a lot of this stuff is overstated like oh he was so bad in september well yeah i mean he hit 222 but uh he had a 111 wric plus plus and was still a better than league average because he walks so much and he still hits homers. So I just think that's part of the package of the Lonzo. And that's why you keep him where you do in the heart of that lineup, because he can either walk or hit a blast for you. So I don't think it was so disastrous of an ending.

It was going to be so disastrous of an ending for him with the Mets. And I think they might even bring him back because they've got the money and he's generally well liked. I wonder if that Homer, you know, changes anything about the resigning. Who knows that Homer might have been worth 40 million to Pete Alonso or something. I don't know. I think it's one of those moments that Mets fans are going to remember forever. I think Brews fans are going gonna try and forget it forever.

And it's gonna be on baseball highlight reels for a long time. It was the best win. He's a 40 year old Mets fan. He said it was the best win he'd seen. I immediately went back to the Robin Ventura Grand Slam walkoff single. I thought won the series,

but it just won a game in a series. And I was thinking of Andy Chavez had like a, I had a big catch for them. And I was thinking of that at game. So he was like, they didn't even win that game. I was like, God damn my memory, my memory is so bad. I was so sure that Barry Bonds had two walk-off homers against the Braves in 2002, not even one.

Well, I'm gifted with a better memory than you, but the way mine is, I'm not even sure bonds had two walk-off homers against the Braves in 2002. Not even one. Well, I'm gifted with a better memory than you, but the way my memory works is I just repress one previous bad memory to make room for a new one. And I gotta say, I appreciate Mike Farron from LB Network Radio pointing out just how rough this recent postseason stretch has been for the Brewers,

the various Moments of of heartbreak and losing game seven at home and the NLCS the Dodgers So these ones you'd repress that came back now that you had a new one to repress. Taylor made just an unbelievable diving catch and I had just hadn't thought about it in four years I'd forgot just because I hadn't thought about it in four years because of the the Juan Soto hit off of hater That had that funky spin on it that the Trent Grisham misplayed in right field against the Nats Oh the Trent Grisham, like the ball at the middle that then he got traded Yeah, that was his last game as a brewer So like each and then what happens is people remind me of these moments and I rewatch them

and then they all just come flooding back and it's just, it's brutal, just brutal. But it's tough to think that you're going to do it and then have it be taken away, right? I think that's the hardest part of a loss like that. It felt like everything late was falling exactly into place for Brewers fans fans only to lose it in a Heartbreaking sort of fact. I mean especially after game two with the cheerio homers. Yeah, I mean it just like this is cheerio ascendant

Here we go. This time we're gonna break through and and there's there's some other implications to this as well We'll save those for a bit later in the show because one thing that's so fun about the Brewers I think is a little different than the past is that I don't know in some ways I think I don't want to overstate this but and maybe just prove me wrong with one example but is Jackson like Jackson Shreer is like one of the most special young prospects to come through yeah I mean I think it's you if you're thinking about modern Brewers history, you're comping them to Ryan Braun at every turn, right?

Like, how does he compare to Ryan Braun, the excitement of Braun and how good Braun was right away? And I think, you know, that's right. That's a fair comparison to make. And then I think for the next generation, it's older than me. A little bit more dynamic on the base

pass and with the glove, probably. Yeah, I think and I think it's maybe more like cut comps to Robin Yount, right? Within the franchise, special player that could be here for a long time and could be part of a winning core, absolutely. All of that's true. I guess we'll get this part out of the way.

I think the thing that hit me a little harder than the loss itself was listening to some of the sign-offs and postgame interviews, because Bob Euker's been a part of Brewer's baseball forever, right? Like his stories, his voice, if you're a Brewer's fan, like you have memories attached to Euker calling games that will last a lifetime. Every year this has happened, you've got the sense like maybe Euk's not coming back next year,

and he's so far come back, but the post-game comments made by Christian Jelich and just you could see it in his eyes. His eyes were kind of red. He had talked to Euker before the media came to interview him at his locker. And then Jeff Levering sign off, who works between the radio and TV booth with the Brewers also, you could feel the emotion on his voice was more than just the loss of the game.

I get the impression that maybe you told some people that might be his last game. He isn't announced it as such, but the weight of that, I think, is hitting people around here a little harder, too, because I think a lot of us have believed like one, Bob Euker will live forever and call Brewers games forever, even though the reality is that won't be the case. And then two, that they would win one before you was out of that booth. Right. Like that was always kind of the belief with this this current core this group that keeps going back to the postseason every year. So I think that's the extra dagger part for fans who have been part of this

team for so long and they thought like they keep getting closer to keep getting closer. Maybe this year is a little bit different. Unfortunately, this year just isn't. But hopefully, you know, hopefully those feelings will fade and hopefully, Yook will have a change of heart if he hasn't made his decision yet and stick around. But you just got a vibe that something was a little bit different about the way things played out in Milwaukee on Thursday.

You know, the way the roster looks, I feel like, you know, if they could convince him to stay next year, you know, there's some things that happens to the roster after next year. Like they lose Devin Williams, you know, Freddie Peralta has one more year. They're losing Miley, Willie Adames this off season. I don't know. I feel like Christian coming back next year, you know, I think Reese Huston is going to pick up that $18 million option. I don't know. I feel like Christian coming back next year,

I think Reese Hoskins is gonna pick up that $18 million option. I think he will. I mean, it was a relative down year for Hoskins and he did a lot of the things he ordinarily does, like low average power, just more of a league average than above average contributor.

I think the open market probably wouldn't give him more than what that second year is worth. There's a chance he's better next year. Right. I mean, within the range of what we've seen from him in the past, not not like bouncing back to superstar levels. The Willie Adames question is probably the biggest one as far as how the roster goes. I think a lot of people around here wonder if Devin Williams gets traded

before he's a free agent, because as a team that runs a pretty tight payroll, you know, having a closer in the final year of arbitration is not necessarily something that they are prone to do so there's a few things like that and if there was an infielder you know especially maybe instead you know I think Joey Ortiz can place short. Terran can too. And Terran can so if there was a second or third baseman that they could have for a couple years, what about like Jake Berger? But then, you know, what does Marlins need with

Devin Williams? Yeah, I don't know. I don't know what it is. But there's they could they could move, they could do something like that for sure. You know, I'd be really interested to see what Brandon Woodruff has coming back next year, because they'll have Woodruff, Savali, and Peralta next year already under contract. You've got Mizorowski coming through. Mizorowski coming up, so there's some interesting stuff coming up. They're in pretty good shape, and I think that they will have like $20 to $30 million to spend. So, they could get a back-end starter, maybe even sign a reliever that they find undervalued

and trade Devin Williams at the same time. They should be at least as good as they were this year, I think, you know, with the right moves. Yeah, I think you can be a little more optimistic from 24 and 25 than you were from 23 to 24, because the way last off season started, we were like 11 months removed from flying back from first pitch Arizona.

My plane landing to the news that Craig Council was going to the Cubs and then a few months later, the Corbin Burns trade, which people saw coming, but I think when it actually happened, you're sitting there and you're like, oh, this is brutal. Like they're not gonna be the same team this year. New manager, no ace, it's gonna be a rebuilding year.

And it was in the predictions and most places had the Brewers fourth or fifth in the NL Central and they exceeded just about any projection imaginable. So like when you pull back and look at that as a fan, you're like, oh, okay. That was actually a pretty good year. The way it ended was just such a gut punch that it makes you forget about how pleasantly surprised you were for the better part of the last six months. Here's an interesting tidbit though as we get into our division series previews. This is from Tyler Kepner's column today. Brewer's fans are already acutely aware of this. Tyler

Kepner wrote about this in the Athletic, every time the Brewers have fallen short of the World Series, the team that knocked them out has made it. This goes back to the 81 Yankees, the 2008 Phillies, the 2011 Cardinals, the 2018 Dodgers, who I mentioned, one in seven in Milwaukee in the NLCS, the 2019 Nationals with that sliced ball out to Grisham, the 2020 Dodgers in the short series, the 21 Braves, and the 23 Diamondbacks. So-

That's crazy. That is nuts. They all made the World Series and most of them won it. Like these half of them won it. Yeah. A bunch of those teams actually also won. It's weird. That's just weird. That's coincidence. It's very strange coincidence.

It's like the it's like the negative version of how good the Royals are in postseason series. It's like the negative version of how good the Royals are in post-season series. It's like the opposite. Like the luck of the two franchises needs to balance out. Even out on some level. Just a little bit. Well because I would say like, you know, this Mets Phillies series, like I can't even believe they played to a virtual standstill in the regular season

with a seven and six record for the Phillies because I see air superiority here for the field. Really? In terms of like arms, like, come on. Like they're coming at you with Zach Wheeler who like either will win the Cy Young or be second in it. Uh, Aaron Nola, who had like a two ERA in the postseason last year. And maybe, maybe he won't again, but he's a credible starting pitcher

that's probably better than anyone that the Nets have. Yeah, Aaron Nola's better than anyone they got. Even in his, we've talked about Nola as a frontline guy that has like the widest range of outcomes, maybe, of any frontline. If you put him in the frontline guy group, which I think we do on this show pretty consistently, he has higher highs and lower lows than you'd expect for someone that gets into

that bucket. I would agree with you. You take him over Severino, you take him over Manaya, you take him over McGill, like any anybody that met with their author, you'd say Nola and the Phillies be favored in that starting pitching matchup. I think you have to get all the way to Ranger Suarez before you take a, a met maybe over, over a Philly starter. I take Christopher Sanchez I think over every star I was just gonna say like yeah when you get all the way to Rangers you have Christopher Sanchez a head Of ranger now and you think Christopher Sanchez would even have at least a slight edge over any of those met starters

You could play some games with ranger Suarez and Christopher Sanchez Depending on the schedule. Because you would probably want to use the bullpen a little bit more on those days. You would consider that maybe Wheeler and Nola would go deeper. So you might do something where you're like,

Wheeler, Christopher Sanchez, Nola, Ranger, just to maybe give your bullpen more days off. Okay, now we go to the bullpen. Okay, maybe I take Edwin Diaz over any reliever the Mets, the Phillies have as a single reliever? Yeah, I mean, even again, another guy that falls into the top tier at his position. But has some variance.

But has a little more variance. Has just been that way his whole career. I mean, some of it's the free passes. Command, I think. But then behind him, I take every Philly over the other Mets. Like I go like four or five deep at the Phillies before I say, okay, maybe I take Greed Garrett here.

You know what I mean? So I see this Phillies pitching staff as vastly superior. And I think that the lineups are a pick them. The lineups are very, they're both very good. They played to a pick them, but I would, you know, with the names on the back of the jerseys and the players and stuff, like, I think I would pick the Phillies.

You know, the Mets were like slightly better once you'd park adjust, but I think I'd take the Phillies lineup if you'd like, you know, made me decide. Yeah, but it's close. It's extremely close. That was born out over the full 162, right? I mean, the Mets had a 109 WRC plus, the Phillies had a 108.

Phillies, I think, had a few more injuries in their position player group that probably justify that tiny difference. You start thinking about some of the secondary guys, BOM and Real Mudo, maybe give them a slight edge over the met secondary options in their lineup, but again, extremely close from that perspective. The edge is pitching for sure. The schedule in this series is not at all like we have on the AL side.

So it's Saturday, Sunday for games one and two, Tuesday, Wednesday after the travel day for three and four. And then a game five would be on Friday. So very traditional schedule here, which I think also favors the team that just has flat out better pitching. I think when you have more breaks, we'll talk about this for the ALDS series. You can get by with fewer. You can do.

Yeah, you can use fewer pitchers, right? You just keep that list shorter. You can push guys beyond one inning if you want to. And you have a built in rest day between games one and two. So I think that would have been something that would have made things even better for the Mets and the way they operate if they were on the A.L. schedule. It doesn't mean this is insurmountable whatsoever. I mean, this is going to be a good series.

I thought my original prediction was the Brewers over the Mets and then the Phillies winning this series. I'm not going to change it, even though I know I'm flying right Against the face of history that I just pointed out a little while ago from the title capter column But I think the difference comes down to the pitching and I think it's not just the starting pitching I think what the Phillies have done very well Over the last few years is they have taken the command concerns and their bullpen and they've slowly whittled those away. Right. And the confidence I have in the Phillies bullpen today versus like three

years ago is quite a bit higher. And I hope for the sake of Phillies fans out there, it's higher too. But is this going to be an awesome series? Yeah, I think it is. I think it's going to go at least six games or at least I'm sorry, it's going to go at least four, four very tight games. I wish we had seven for this one, because I think it would be epic, but I think it could be epic even as a five game series. Hockey is back on ice in the Athletic Hockey Show as the game covered four days a week,

all season long. Hear from the Athletics, NHL writers, and insiders Monday, Wednesday, and Thursday. Plus, keep up with the game's future stars on the Friday Prospect series. Whether we're diving deep on one topic, discussing the latest news, or breaking down last night's OT winner, you can't miss a single episode. Listen to the Athletic Hockey Show wherever you get your podcasts. This is funny. The median location plus for relievers is not 100. It's 99, which makes sense, right?

Yeah, tick below. Yeah. About why why why guys end up there. But the Phillies for the season with their whole bullpen had the 14th best location plus. That's that's better than they've been in the past. The Mets actually had the worst location plus, which probably dragged down a little bit by Diaz and some people. That could be part of what happens you know Diaz walks a couple guys and then Bryce Harper steps to the plate you know what I mean like it's uh it's it's this in this kind of a series. Also I want to point out Tyler Kepner's's great column about the history of the Phillies and the Mets.

Just a really long one with fun little bits. Guys have been traded from each to each. And then the one that I remember the most vividly is the time that the Phillies came back and beat the Mets when they were seven down with 17 to play. That was an epic collapse. The Mets would like to pay that one back if they could. Again, not the longest of series. I think that the research suggests that we would have to play 70 game series

to really figure these things out. So. It's just 70? I mean, that's all we need for this to actually work? I mean, there've been, I think this to actually work. I mean, there have been like, I think Bill James had a question that was like, you know, is this a tournament that we're just cool with like a bunch of randomness or is this like supposed to crown the best

team and we should make it so that, you know, the best teams have the best chance at winning it. And I was like, if we want the best team to win, we should cancel the regular season and just have like 50 game turn, 50 game series. I'd flip it around. I'd say turn baseball into the Premier League where it's just the regular season and that's it.

And then if you wanna have a World Series, then it's all of October, it's the same two teams. The best team in the AL plays the best team in the NL for a month. That's the only like 162 to get into the World Series. And then like best of 31 in October to win it. Yankees and Dodgers for a month. The ratings on that would be incredible. You think so?

I mean, that that particular one. 2425 Coligar commercials. Rob Manfred is absolutely giddy about that possibility. You understand how excited he is. Not at the Royals, but the best record in the AL. I think that's absolutely right in a different way, which I would say we should crown a regular season winner and, you know, call the call the tournament and call the postseason a tournament.

It's something, the Cup, the Manfred Cup. No, no, no, don't name anything after Manfred. Nobody wants that. No one wants the Manfred Cup. The President's Trophy in the NHL, okay, so just a sidebar for one second, like I was a really big hockey fan for a long time and being in a market.

They have names for their trophies, right? They have the President's Trophy is the one you get for having the most points in the regular season. As a Red Wings fan, they had a lot of President's Trophies for a little while and a lot of disappointment in the playoffs and I can tell you firsthand as a fan of a team that in that great in the regular season getting upset in the playoffs mode.

So you got President's Cups and not Stanley Cups and they got Stanley Cups, too I mean they won four cups in about 15 years So they had they had their run But the level of like I want to win every year that I had as a hockey fan was off the charts Like I mean part of it was my age at the time. Oh So wait the Brewers the Brewers are paint karmic payback for all that payback. Yes, they absolutely are They really are I mean, it's there's no other way around it The other get a X factor for this series though that we we haven't seen yet in the postseason could be kodai singha, right?

So cut it could I think of might be available in some kind of relief role once the official rosters are set for the series that We'll have a better idea of what that might look like but even if he's only available for four or five six outs at a time because he's not fully stretched out for this series that would be a nice lift a nice glue guy that they'd have at the disposal of Carlos Mendoza for the series. Yeah, I think the way that it could really be important is that, you know, you like Quintana and Manaya and Severino a lot more if you don't have to pitch them a third time through the order. I know that Quintana just came off of a good job of doing this. But watching that game, I was like, oh, he's back out there. You know, and I was like, come on. I mean, the Brewers gotta make him pay for this.

Third time through the order this year, the slugging against Quintana went from 384 to 432. The OPS went from 685 to 764. He was 15% worse than even other pitchers in that split. That split is 15% worse than other pitchers. So he's not better than people third time through the order. He's in fact worse. So, you know, batters hit 277, 332, 432 against Quintana third time through the order. If you have Kodai Senga that can pitch, you know, once every two or three days for two innings, that's a pretty good pitcher to kind of come in in the fourth and get you to the sixth,

or the fifth to get you to the seventh. That changes a lot, because I don't know how far my circle of trust is in that Mets bullpen, and Senga kind of bridging the gap. It's the kind of tiger-sian, you know, razian, giant-sian way to like slay the giant. Would be like, you know, we got this bridge pitcher, we got these other pitchers, they're gonna get us through four, he's gonna get us through two,

and then we got the relievers. I mean, I think part of the Thursday installment of baseball is weird is Jose Quintana giving you six scoreless And then Jose Budo being the one that gives up a pair of homers, right? Cuz I if I'm not mistaken Jose Budo is in your circle of trust for relievers You want out there in close late situations in this Mets bullpen. Is he not? 100% yeah. Yeah baseball's weird

You know one thing that maybe I think one thing that probably helps with this new trend I mean newish I mean or whatever everything old is new again I'm not saying that you know oh my god people throwing sinkers and it's new it's like yeah they used to throw sinkers but the thing that I think that what happens is that throwing multiple fastballs can help you throwing multiple fastballs can can help you get through the order three times better because you're you've got different ways to play with them. So right. And I think the benefit of that, especially in the regular season,

can be reducing wear and tear on your bullpen because if you have middle and back end starters with multiple fastballs, they can work deeper into a start and take a little pressure off occasionally as opposed to we have our one or two aces and clearly our two best starters and everybody else is four or five and dive, then you're putting a lot more strain on the pen, right?

So maybe this is a wrinkle. Severino, check this out out severino this year went from a 545 OPS first time through to an 843 third Wow Kodai Senga after severino would be brilliant We'll see if that actually can be an option for the Mets in this series Sticking by my original prediction though. I think the Phillies get through this one. Who do you see coming out of this matchup? And also, I think we're one series down, we got three more to go.

So we better book it a little. I was gonna save the Brewers eulogy, man. You started that. Sorry. I can't help looking for it. I'm a fancy player, I can't help looking for it. You shoved us right into it. I was like, I guess we're going. This is gonna happen.

Let's get to the Tigers Guardians matchup, where we haven't talked a lot about Cleveland yet, because this is their first postseason series. League average offense with more power this year, kind of getting there a different way. I think that's a good thing for them overall. Just makes them a little bit more dangerous. They've been great defensively.

Second in defensive runs saved, 84, plus 10 by outs above average. If you look at the whole season, the lineup is kind of strange, because you see David Fry, 129 WRC+, and maybe the supporting cast is a little bit better. If you look at the second half, you see Jose Ramirez being a superstar,

you see a late surge from Kyle Manzardo, pop five homers, and 69 plate appearances in the second half. And you see some situational power from John Kenzie Noelle and a little bit from David Fry. But you kind of see like Ramirez and Naylor being the two rocks in the lineup. And then you just wonder who else is going to step up. It's still a question.

It's still a very top heavy sort of build. Not that the Tigers don't have similar questions about what's going to happen in various pockets of their lineup as well. It's just funny to think how recency bias steeps into our analysis. The Guardians were six and a half games better than the Tigers during the regular season. They only had to be one game better during the next five. And this lineup should be a little better than what the Tigers have based on what we saw over the last hundred and sixty two games and what we saw in the final thirty days of the regular season.

But all that is to say, like, how much do you trust this Guardians run producing unit? Because the ongoing question we had about them as a team was that they didn't have the same starting pitching quality that we'd grown accustomed to. So they had to play phenomenal defense, which they have, hit better or at least hit for more power, which they have, and then be phenomenal out of the bullpen, which they have. Like does the script that they're using actually continue to work for them because we've been a little bit skeptical of it at most turns so far this season even though they handled their business in the division again this

year. They're so similar to the Tigers in this regard but they're superior in some important ways which is the bullpen is superior. I do wonder about this like take Alex Cobb, Gavin Williams against Casey Mize and Reese Olsen. Which side are you taking? Slight edge to the Guardians but not like... Yeah so pick them in their it's a pick them in their worst matchup situation right? I guess

Scoobal you take Scoobal easily over Bybee so you take the Guardians starting rotation over over the Over the over the Tigers, but the narrow pretty narrow margin though more narrow than they take the Tigers starting rotation over the guardians Because of school. Yeah because of scubal, but it's it's still it's more narrow than Than it right should you go game by game? You can go Okay Well, they don't have the advantage in scubal and then maybe they have the advantage the other ones so in terms of the lineup, there's a couple things. I love Stephen vote and he has his players backs and I wonder if there is something to Andres Jimenez being a

Not only is he fast, but he's he's you know a veteran for this team But I don't know why he bats second so often He hasn't doesn't really have a split this year where he's been above average player, but yet he has among the most played appearances on this team, and he's batted second more than any other position. And I don't know, if it's me, I'm just having Ramirez

and Naylor at the top. Why don't even just start at the game with Ramirez? Just max out those two guys right away. Yeah, I mean, make sure... Or Kwon makes a ton of contact, but you know, you can use contact actually once someone is on base. I mean, if you really want to, you can put Kwon, Ramirez, Naylor. Just try to get as many played appearances out of your best hitters.

If you do that, then three deep, I'm in. Four deep, now you're talking about Lane Thomas, Dave Fry, Kamenzardo, Noel. I'll give you four and a half deep, maybe five deep in this lineup, but that still leaves like four kind of easy spots in the lineup. And that's important because the fewer kind of,

quote unquote, holes you have, I think the fewer opportunities you have for you know we talked about when we were looking back at the Tigers in against the Astros when they were like, okay, we're going to bring in Brandt Herder. For these two lefties and we're going to leave them in and see how long we can leave them in. them in and see how long we can leave them in. And what's going to, what the tiger is going to be able to do against the guardians to some extent is, you know, we're going to bring in a reliever for the fourth, we're going to bring in a reliever to get Manzardo out or get Manzardo out of the game. Even we're going to bring in a lefty that might even get Marsara out of the game. And then he's going to get the easy outs and he's going to, you know, he's going to, you know, he's going to subsist and just get through the bottom of that order and then we bring in a new reliever when the

Flits over, you know, so they can still there You know the more holes you have in your lineup the more susceptible you are to these strategies that the Tigers are gonna bring to the table Yeah, I think that's a really good way to think about it now It's just as far as the Tigers lineup goes. You say the Guardians maybe four, four and a half deep. Kerry Carpenter when they're playing against Reidy, he's in and their best hitter by WRC Plus. I think most of us look at Riley Green and say he's probably their best all around offensive player because he's in the lineup every single day. Meadows has been amazing since he came back. A 300 hitter with a 500 sluggingging a 340 OBP since he came back. I, he's in my circle of trust.

So that's your three. Now, when we start, when I started talking about like, you know, Oh, Colt Keith, you know, John, John, Kenzie, Noel, men's Ardo, like that group. Like I, I, I'm going to willing to give them four or five deep. If you kind of veerling Colt Keith that that grouping I think is good enough. I wouldn't call them holes, you know. So you got Carpenter, Meadows, Green, Torkelson. I mean, Meadows, Green, Carpenter is your trusted three and I'm going to give them five deep with Veerling and Keith and Torkelson in varying degrees. I mean, there's different matchups there, different

handedness, you know. I get it. But I'll say I give them five and I think they have basically four holes as well. Right. And it's like the difference between Torkelson and Manzardo. I don't know if there is one right now, even though we've seen it. It could determine the series, right? Because they're going to come up, those Torkelson and Manzardo are going to come up with guys on with two outs a lot, I bet. That's what I think is really interesting. There's almost certainly going to be a few new sort of playoff heroes from this series from this group of position players in part because the Tigers have a lot of guys that haven't been here before but in part two because the depth of both lineups is filled with guys that are either mix and match platoon guys or they're just very inexperienced players, right? So I think the other question I have for you about the series and it's not gonna work this way

for game one because it won't be Scoobl versus Bybee. Tigers probably throw like Reese Olsen out there or maybe an opener and then Reese Olsen as like their primary game one plan and then sort of cobble it together the way they do. I just go Casey Meise, he threw that slider 89 last time. You go Meise over Olsen? Olsen's stuff hasn't been back the, as it was pre-injury.

So I would just, I I'm a stuffist. I would ride that like, Oh, you know, Mize did something really interesting in his last outing. It did, it crumbled, but it crumbled in the fifth, dude. If you got the first four innings of Mize's last outing, you take that over Olson any day and if the Tigers being who they are they would they would just take four And then may Mize may never go back out there for the fifth So I just trust Mize's first four innings over Olsen's right now, so I'd go Mize, but yeah, I forget

That's not your point you so you're saying my question is it's not scubal versus by B So it's not your ace versus their ace in game one, which is fine But I'm curious what you would Advise Tigers hitters to do or what you would advise Tigers hitters to do or what you think the Tigers hitters are gonna try and do game plan-wise against Tanner Bybee, because I think that's the spot where there's a reasonably large edge for the Guardians

because it's not scruable going on the other side. So how could the Tigers kind of counteract that? I was joking with an advanced scout who had a former player that had been brought into the organization above him that was advising players and he was rolling his eyes he's like yeah every hitters meeting is see it high and so like I was like that was in my head as I was looking and I was like what I advise them against Tanner Bybee is see it high because Bybee throws his fastball

high and a slider low so like see it high. Because Bybee throws his fastball high and a slider low. So like, see it high. If it's high, let it fly. Like go, try to hit that fastball high in the zone. It's not the specialist fastball. It has good V-Low, but by shape it's not, it's pretty vanilla, it's almost dead zone. Meaning that it's got average movement.

Should be easy to sort of spot. This is the wrinkle that Bybee will throw at you, especially if you are a lefty, this is where Tanner Bybee throws his curve balls and change ups high. In the zone. So, you know, you're either gonna take your fastball swing at one of these and get a curve ball or change,

or you're gonna let it go because you think it's bendy or it looks a little bit low and it's in the zone. So Tanner Bybee steals strikes with his curveball and change up and you gotta know that when you step to the plate. So now you have two ideas in your head when you're set to the plate and that just makes it harder. It's not just high, let it fly, it's high, let it fly but you're stealing a really equal bidder swing too.

I get the sense you don't have quite that much time to run through that as the pitch is being thrown. And I was looking at counts you know I think I would I would just settle in and try to get the fastball because as bad as Bybie's fastball is, he throws a 40% in almost every count. The only time that he drops below 40% is two strikes. So I think as stupid as it sounds, I would have the most basic strategy against him, which is high fastballs and then have a two strike approach, which is, you know, basically wait as long as possible and spoil things that are in the zone. You know, try to try to hit it the opposite field in the zone.

You know, just try to make contact. Was there anything else that you saw from the Tigers in the two game series against the Astros or in their run to make it into the postseason down the stretch that's kind of changed your view, opinion, or just overall outlook for this club? I'm not like a lineup junkie. I'm not a guy who's like, oh, if you batted this guy third or that guy's fifth, like, I mean, there's too much of that. I think it's too much. It's often so retroactive too. Like, oh, well, if that guy who went three for four yesterday had been batting second, you guys would have scored a bunch of runs. Yeah, well that the guy that we batted eighth instead of second was Andy Ibanez. You really want us to bat Andy Ibanez second?

So I'm not really a lineup junkie like that. I to the most part, I think you just want your best hitters at the top line. That's all I care about. There's some research that just asks, you know, contact is more important in some places. But for me, I'm just like, can I get more at-bats for my better players? That's something we do in little league It's something we've done forever. And so that's what I said, but Justin Henry Malloy was Hitting second against the lefty in game one against from her Yeah, the Tigers lineup against the lefty just looks it just looks weird because it's it's like oh wow that they're platooning Those spots and with those guys. It's a little jarring if you're not used to it. Yeah, and I don't even really want to look at the numbers.

I'm just like, I don't want Justin Henry Malloy second in my order. You don't have a better right-handed hitter that you can, like why not, isn't Vierling right-handed? Like why wasn't Vierling second? Like I had to, everyone's giving AJ Hinch credit for pushing all the right buttons, but that was the one button where I was like,

I don't get why you're pushing this button right here. So like, you know, and just look at San Francisco right now where the pendulum is swinging away from analytics and you know, all that stuff is like, you know, the pendulum can swing away from AJ Hinch if he bats Justin Henry-Malloy second against the lefty and I don't know if the Cantillo, but is it? Even the usage took the usage for Cleveland might lead them to handle it differently with Framber. You know, he's going to be in there ideally

for three times the order, but at least for two. So that's probably why you make that commitment there for the guardians, you know, Cantillo and Boyd, depending on how and when they're used. They may go one time through the order. Yeah, so that I think that just completely changes the look of the lineups and we're just not gonna see it because it's Bybee, Williams and probably Lively.

At least Bybee and Williams for the first two where you got righties that are supposed to go five plus for the Guardians. The Guardians, one thing that I also want to point out about them that's really cool is they've got a little bit of the clock face stuff going on in terms of Emmanuel Classe's like 100 mile an hour cutter. Kate Smith is a more traditional fastball, power fastball from the right side, but he

also has a great splitter. And they even got a guy who people haven seen, people haven't seen much of, Eric Siparowski, who they picked up late in the season, who's struck out 40% of the guys he saw in the regular season. And he's like a lefty with 20 inches of IVB on his fastball. I don't think he throws that hard. 92-7. So they've got like a crafty lefty. They've got you know, the power righty the cutter the the splitter And they even have like Eli Morgan who had a 193 ERA through the regular season throws 92 but has a really great change up and you know if you see something early in a game where like You know, oh they're because you saw the Pirates

I mean the Tigers were really trying to go opposite field, you know, in that one game against frombers. If you see something like that, then maybe you could you could throw, oh, they're really aggressive on Tanner Bibies fastball. Eli, you're in goose them up with those changeups, you know, so there's a lot of matchup ability in that reliever squad for the Guardians. So I'm picking the Guardians to go through based on the strength of the bullpen and slight superiority in the lineup.

I think Gavin Williams and Alex Cobb and Matt Boyd are going to be just enough. Yeah, as skeptical as I've been of the Guardians at times this year, I think they could do a lot of the things. The Tigers do well themselves. A little bit of a Spider-Man-me matchup. So I'm going to stick with the Guardians here, as I wanna believe in the Tigers. I wanna jump on that bandwagon,

and hopefully for Tigers fans, it keeps on going, but I think the Guardians can take care of business in this series. Let's go over to the Royals and Yankees. Definitely not a matchup I thought I was gonna see in the postseason back when the season began. This Royals team, though, got it done in Baltimore. Their two game series.

It's a little different going a little further. This is another situation where you have a lot of off days built in. Right. So you go Saturday for game one, Monday for game two, a travel day before you play Wednesday. You have a Thursday game right after the Wednesday game and then Saturday for game five. So what that would mean is that Cole Regans can start two games in this series on regular rest. Cole Regans can start game two and a potential game five. So what that would mean is that Cole Reagan's can start two games in this series on regular rest. Cole Reagan's

could start game two and a potential game five for the Royals, which is very good news, but we kind of hinted at this earlier. You know, for the Royals, I think one of the questions we have is how many relievers are in their circle of trust and the answer is probably around three or four. That leads perfectly into like the schedule. Like that's exactly what you want. You want a situation like the one they have here to really only rely on your best relievers and to potentially use your ace twice,

even though he had to pitch in the wild card round. Yeah, it is good for them to be able to set their rotation because you can get Cole in without Reagans, you know, you know. So then you kind of be like, oh, I would take, in a park neutral context, I would take the Yankees rotation over the Royals one, even as strong as the Royals one was this year.

I think that, you know, when you start lining them up and start talking about these pitchers, I'm taking the guys the Yankees have, but it gets even more, it even gets even better when you start talking about, oh, well, I can throw Cole against whatever. It's not, I can throw my Cole, my Garrett Cole against not Cole Regans. And then I can throw maybe Rodon against Cole Regans when he comes. Do we have word yet on when Reagan's is gonna pitch I mean, I assume it's game two because he'll be on regular rest by then as long as the cramps

The you know the issue that knocked him out of that wild card game a little early against the Orioles I like Cole Regans to be clear. I like Cole Regans over over over Rodin But that could be you know a tight game that could be a one-one game Sort of such situation because Rodin is but that could be a tight game. That could be a one-one game sort of situation because Rodin is pretty dang good. I think he's underrated. And the Royals lineup is the worst in the postseason right now. So that combination says, oh, well, maybe they get one run.

And then you have Cole Regan's against a really good lineup, but that might be one run. You get it to the end and you just have a Soto walk off or something. You know what I mean? Like a judge walk off. So I would say it's kind of flip them in that one because of the lineups, not necessarily because of the pitchers. And then, you know, I think I would take, who am I thinking of as the third Yankee starter?

I mean, Clark Schmidt is back from the IL. I think you'd line him up as your third or heel. It's either Schmidt or heel. I think it's both. They just work in tandem. You're looking at a series that has some rest days. Yeah, it does. It does give you some different options with.

You could bring Cole back. So, yeah, I would use both Kiel and Schmidt. Heel and Schmidt. And they're very different pitchers. Power North South guy. And then like a little bit more of an East both Kiel and Schmidt. And they're very different pitchers. Power, north-south guy, and then like a little bit more of an east-west guy in Clark Schmidt. So I think that would be a little bit rough

on lineup making and matchup making. So I would use them both. Neither one of them has a ton of innings left and a little bit of fatigue concerns and stuff like that. So yeah, I think that'd'd be pretty exciting duo for me. I take that over something like Lugo. I mean, would I take that over Lugo? No, I guess I'd take Lugo over that.

Right, because that'd be your likely game three matchup, though. The one time we'll see Lugo as a starter. Factoring in the lineups. Once you factor in the lineups, I think I still take like Yankees lineup plus those two pitchers over Lugo in the other lineup. So I just don't, I can't see the Royals as a favorite in any game once I think about all the different parts.

I mean, I think the relative weakness for me of this Yankee team is that the bullpen is good, not great. That's probably the spot where. But I'm a big Luke Weaver fan. Yeah, I mean, Luke Weaver's great. I just think it's the bridge to him that it's a little more vulnerable than some of the other bullpens in this postseason.

So if you're gonna say like, what's causing Yankees fans to lose sleep in the next week? It's... It's Clay Holmes. Six, seven, and eight. Those innings could be the trouble spots. It's too much. I mean, come on.

In your heart of hearts, you don't think Clay Holmes is better than John Shriver definitely better than John Shriver or Carlos Hernandez Definitely better than Carlos Hernandez. No matter how good I want Carlos Hernandez to be I know we wanted I mean Sam Long, I don't know like the Royals bullpen is is one pitcher for me and maybe Angel Zirpo will come out and shove again and make me feel stupid. But like, I think it's Lucas Erceg and oh, please get through this inning.

I just want to see if they end up pushing Erceg a little bit more because of all the off days built into the schedule, right? Oh my God, four and five outs. You could say games one, two, three and five. You could use him and not have to worry about having a game the next day. So you could maybe go two innings in any

or some combination of those games. That helps a little bit. If Hunter Harvey were healthy too, that would actually help. And I think the Yankees are just flat out better. Is it a sweep or do the Royals get a winner too? Royals will get a winner too when they keep the Yankees offense completely stifled

and win 1-0 or 2-0. I just can't imagine that happens over and over again. If it does, that's how they win. They win this series, they score eight runs, they win three games. Or is it like a Michael Wacha mysteriously great start? Wacha's put together three pretty nice years with three different home parks between the Red Sox the Padres and the Royals I know two of those three environments are yeah I mean it would be the pitchers shoving they'd be winning games three to one

Yeah, and two to zero he's kept the ball in the park better But you know home parks may be been a factor in some of that going into Yankee Stadium in game one is a pretty tough Assignment and Oh Brady singers had a really nice year the thing that kind of caught my eye looking more closely at singer you mentioned home road splits his roadie ra is over for lefties against singer are the major problem right whenever we see Brady singer pitch in this series the lefties are the biggest trouble spots by far they hit 291 367 488 against him this season so that's the thing that makes me nervous much as he tries to do stuff like he just walks them for the most part Yeah He just tries to avoid the heart of the zone as much as possible and doesn't give in and tries to walk them and they still

Slug like that against him. So the other thing that is is Maybe a little surprising given that these are all veterans, but every pitcher in the that these are all veterans, but every pitcher in the rotation for the Royals is about 30 innings or more over their career high. Yeah. So I wonder if that's more of a problem in October or if that becomes more of a problem in 2025. Next year. Yeah.

Fatigue is one of those things that you never know when it comes to get you. It does come to get you usually at some point, but it doesn't always happen in the moment. Sometimes it's, oh, they're all slow in spring. Remember it was at Gallant when he came this spring. And he eventually got it going, but he was down big in Velo in the spring after all that. No, there all those innings.

Yeah, it did take a little time for Gallant to get it rolling this year. All right, so we're both on the Yankees. We do think the Royals can avoid a sweep. The series that is probably the late game every night, so long as it's running, is Padres Dodgers being on the West Coast. Fits well in prime time anyway. What are some of the keys in this series?

We did learn that Dylan Cease will start game one, and it looks like Eudarvish is lined up for game two. We were just kind of wondering, hey, he didn't pitch in the wild card around. Is Dylan Cease okay? By all accounts, Dylan Cease is in fact okay. We've talked about the Padres having- Might have been a gambit. Quite the gambit.

We've talked about the Padres though, being so dangerous because they don't strike out. 17.6% K-rate as a team. A lot of that, it's a boost from Luis Arias, but it's more than Arias as far as limiting swing and miss. And then also being a top five offense by WRC plus great pitching top to bottom. The Joe Musgrove injury is a concern, but I don't think it's a, it's not a backbreaker for them. I mean,

you could go cease Darvish King in the first three games of the series. That's a great trio and same kind of question we've kind of asked each series is like, well, with the Dodgers, it like how do you line up the pitching matchups on the other side? and the same kind of question we've kind of asked with each series is like, well, with the Dodgers, it, like, how do you line up the pitching matchups on the other side and how do you think, how do you favor the pitching matchups one direction or the other?

Because it looks like it's Yamamoto and Flaherty in one and two, so, C's versus Yamamoto? Yamamoto early so he can maybe pitch again in the series, even on the extra day of rest, so, that's a pretty cool idea of theirs because they're low on starting pitching pitching so getting the most out of Yamamoto is a good idea so I like that however I still I don't know it's controversial why I still take Dylan Cease over Yamamoto I don't think it's

controversial I mean I think some of it's the absence Yamamoto had late in the season it was a long time off. I don't know how far he can go into the games. Yeah, that's fair. Plus, Dylan Seitz just has that sort of dominant VELO. He does that like John Smoltz package, you know what I mean, where it's just like, he's gonna come out and throw country hardball. So I like that matchup for him. And then I'm also been a low man on Jack Flaherty,

who has kept a decent VELO up over the course of this season and hasn't really seen too much of a dip, but has seen a dip. The last two starts he sat under 92 in the regular season. I don't know if he was just saving bullets. I don't know if he was just saving bullets. You know, just, you know, we're gonna make it. I mean, not worry too much about this. But again, I don't know if this is controversial, but I would take whoever the Padres throw in that second game over him.

All right, so you're taking Darvish over Jack Flaherty. And then I'm taking Michael King over Landon Nack? We think it's Nack. Walker Beauty. Yeah, it's,ack. Walker Buehler. Yeah, actually I think the more they talk about it, the more you seem to think they wanna use Buehler in that spot. And if they go a traditional fourth starter for both,

I think I might even take Waldron in a bullpen game over Nack. I love Nack, I like Nack. That's the closest one and maybe I should take Nack. I like Nack, he has a surprising amount of ride for his arm slot is really good slider he can go three or four at least and be and put them in a good position. What like i said before this padres bullpen does not go forty because sixty. And so Brian Hoeing and Adrian Morahone are really important pitchers for them. They could just have Waldron as in case of glass,

in case of emergency break glass, and not actually start him. They could start the game with Morahone. Oh, you started with a power lefty for five outs, six outs. Then you go to a funky righty, right off the power lefty and get six outs. Oh, it's the fourth inning and now you're getting into the the meat of this bullpen that's really great or you throw Waldron you know

because it didn't work out as well as you wanted and Waldron eats up the rest of the innings and you get to game five you know so like i guess i should i will take nack over a bullpen game i guess but i i mean the Padres bullpen games are not going to be i take Padres bullpen game, I guess. But I mean, the Padres bullpen games are not going to be. I take Padres bullpen games over Tiger bullpen games and the Tiger bullpen games, you know, won them a series. So they're kind of underrated. So I easily take this Padres staff over the Dodger staff in every phase of the game. So the key difference, of course, is the Dodgers have the best lineup in baseball.

So that's like the inside the matchups like, OK, which side wins? Freddie Freeman has an ankle injury. We'll see if that's a limiting factor. Once we get to game one, he did some baseball activities on the field on Thursday. I think by all indications, he's going to play in some capacity. It's just a matter of like if there's a limitation at all. But a 118 WRC plus for the Dodgers lineup during the regular season had a few injuries sprinkled in there as well. Otani just being ridiculous.

Mookie Betts being impossible to pitch to. Tons of experience. We like to see that too. I mean, this should be an amazing series. I'm pretty confident it's going five. They played really well in the regular season. The Padres won eight out of 13. But when you said earlier, I think you made a really great point that it's not just Arias with the

strikeout rate, so I'm looking now at second half strikeout rates for qualified hitters for the Padres. Merrill, 16.5% strikeout rate. Manny Machado, 16.9%. Jirkson Profar, 15.3%. Luis Arias, two. Remember there was a while where he hadn't struck out in the second half?

Yeah, that was fun. Xander Bogarts 15.3, Jake Cronenworth 18.8. All of them saved Jake Cronenworth better than 15% better than the average. Merrill 59% better than the average. Machado 42. And I don't even see Tatis on here. So let me throw Tatis on here.

26.9% K-rate. So he's the guy Tati son here. Twenty six point nine percent K rate. So he's not he's the guy who will whiff. But he's also one of the best power threats and had was 40 percent better in the average in the second half. So I think this is a team that can bang with them. I know I will take the Dodgers lineup and not being willfully ingredient or, you know, faith casting anything. But this is not the Royals lineup.

This is this is a the Royals lineup. This is a lineup that goes all the way deep and has, I think, even beyond the guys that I just mentioned, some really interesting role players. David Peralta was a 30% better than the average batter in the second half. Donovan Solano was 20% better than the average. Solano and Peralta strike out around the average, but they don't strike out too much. And they put the ball in play, and they're kind of a lefty, righty tandem. Those are pretty good pinch hitters

or worst hitters in your lineup. Like when we're talking about holes in the Tigers and Royals lineups, like these guys, Solana and Peralta are probably seventh on the depth chart. Eight, eight. They're the eighth best hitters collectively, you know, in this lineup. So we were talking about seven hitters

that are really, really good. And then the eighth spot is a tandem that was 30% better than the Ligarch in the second half. Lefty, righty tandem. Like, that's a good lineup. The whole is Kyle Higayashoka, who is the home run stroka, as I think the MLB can. Is that what they call them? I didn't come a good lineup. The whole is Kyle Higashoka, who is the home run stroka, as I think the MLB can.

Is that what they call them? I didn't come up with that. Somebody did it on Twitter. I don't think that, but I mean, Higgy's shown power. Like he's barreled the ball pretty consistently. I felt like an old man when I said that. Let me take that back. I think that's one of those kind of overlooked changes

that the Padres moved on from Luis Camposano and let Higashoka be the main catcher. He's more dangerous than I probably gave him credit for in the last round. Just as I said, the relative weakness was the eight nine spots. That's still true, but they're not. It's not Martin Maldonado. It's not that situation with the bat at the bottom of the order either. At least Solano is a big contact guy and Yoshioka can get to that power

The funny thing is you did this thing where you looked at the K rates in the second half of the Padres and it's like All right, everyone's great. Same thing is true for the Dodgers bats 12.4% 16.4% Tommy Edmund 19.6 Will Smith 21 Max Muncie 21.4 Ohtani 22.8 It's a little higher, but the one guy that strikes out a ton, that's a really important part of that lineup, is Teasca Hernandez and he does a lot of damage. He's second at Homer's in the second half. He's their tatties really. Yeah, so I just, I think the way these teams match up is really interesting. I do think the Padres have the pitching edge by health, by current depth. The Dodgers lineup being a little better could keep things really interesting.

I think it's going five games. I'm going Padres. I know you've got them making a really deep run, but I think they're actually gonna at least make it into the NLCS to play the Phillies. We gotta pick one upside. We haven't picked an upside yet. We're all Chaka in this one.

That's what I picked originally. I'm sticking by the original picks. The only opportunity I had to switch was the Tigers. The Tigers eliminated the Astros. I thought the Astros were going to come in and beat the Guardians. So I guess if I had to take an upset, I'll just take the Tigers because I thought the Guardians were going to get bounced by the Astros. I get the first waffle?

That's terrible. You're the king of waffles. That's what's been used. Well, I think the Tigers Guardians is the closest. Yeah, I would agree with that. By a tail of the tape and the way it projects out, I think that's is the closest. Yeah, I would agree with that. By a tail of the tape and the way it projects out, I think that's definitely the case. So, all right, fine.

You've convinced me. I have to take the upset. Are we both taking it or is it just me? Just me on the limb? I'm taking Padres. No, I'm on the Tiger series. Oh, am I gonna go Vibes? Worked for you last time.

I'm gonna take Vibes. All right, I'm gonna pick Mets and Padres in my upsets. All right, all right. Get the Mets and Padres, there you go. This one for the Mets is just, that is, I've lost all the other things on the list. I had barely any other things on the list. I'm picking Mets on vibes.

You picked, you listed three reasons you liked the Mets in the last series and you used vibes for one and three. You made a list like Buzz from Home Alone. It made absolutely no sense. It's the same thing with affiliates because they can actually hit, I guess, on the same level as affiliates. So, you know, I'm taking them on vibes hitting and vibes.

Vibes hitting and vibes. Yeah, it's working. Or that they beat the Brewers and every team that beats the Brewers in the playoffs goes to the World Series. Maybe it'd be that. That's right that that's history fate the way the universe works I don't know how to describe it all I know is it's it's not great to be on the code I think it as a Willis Reed Wow I mean

Even if they got like four really good innings in two games out of Senga that could could be the difference because it could be that Close we are on our way out the door as we go a reminder You can get a subscription to the athletic two dollars a month gets in the door at the athletic comm Rates and barrels you can join our discord the link in the show description chat with other listeners throughout the rest of the postseason And start getting ready for 2025 fantasy baseball or just like join the void I'm gonna spend a lot of time in the void this weekend, I think, just tweeting expletives. Drop a bunch of yous in the middle of a word. Steve Jizzle, yes, he's like, use lots of yous.

That's the advice in the Discord if you're very upset. Enter into the void. That's gonna do it for this episode of Rates and Barrels. Enjoy the games this weekend. We're back with you on Monday. Thanks for listening.