Rates & Barrels - Early Bats for 2021 & Endgame Arms for 2020

Episode Date: September 17, 2020

Eno and DVR discuss the changes expected among the top-20 hitters for 2021 — including potential risers into that group — and widely-available pitchers that might help in the final 10 days of the season. Rundown2:41 What Drops a Hitter Coming Out of 2020?8:56 Cody Bellinger & Christian Yelich Similarities11:00 Top-Five for 2021 (and Next Five)17:58 Will Early Pitching Fall?23:48 A Graceful Decline for Starling Marte?26:04 Potential Newcomers in the First Two Rounds33:13 Luis Robert & Elevated Swing Rates38:50 Should Bo Bichette Go Even Higher than Luis Robert?43:37 Xander Bogaerts' Case for a Move Up57:03 Endgame Pitching Help to Consider Follow Eno on Twitter: @enosarrisFollow DVR on Twitter: @DerekVanRipere-mail: [e-mail] Purchase a subscription to The Athletic for just $1/month at theathletic.com/ratesandbarrels Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Welcome to Rates and Barrels. It's Thursday, September 17th. Derek Van Ryper here with Eno Saris. On this episode, we will begin the process of putting together the top of the hitter rankings for 2021. It's an exercise in building out the first couple of rounds of 2021 drafts. We're also going to dig for some final weekend and final week pickups, predominantly on the pitching side that could help maximize standings points for you down the stretch. One quick programming note before we get started, our usual Friday episode with Britt Giroli is moving to Monday, so look forward to that after the weekend instead of before it.

Eno, how's it going for you on this Thursday? Good. I finally had a good night's sleep after a run outside. It rained here. The skies are clear again. The boys woke up in great energy. The dogs slept through the night. They pooped outside on the walk. I mean, you know, it is one of those things. I kind of was complaining on Tuesday and then, you know, you have a good night and you're like, ah, this is great. My kids are happy and they're running around and, you know, they're, they're kind of going to school and, know and the and the dogs are

learning how to poop in the right places and so as as much as i was a little bit down on tuesday uh i think i'm on the way back up for thursday just in time for the weekend yeah glad to hear that you're back in good spirits i'm broadcasting this episode from my in-law's house, so I have my microphone propped up on an old PlayStation 2. It's not quite the same as the little studio I built for myself in my own apartment, but it's still working well enough, hopefully. Let's dive into some topics for this episode. I think looking at the top two rounds in ADP at the end of a season is always fun. Kind of looking back at where players were, guys that failed to perform, guys that we thought were late first rounders who are now considerations for the first overall pick. And I want to look back at it and say, okay, who's falling out of this group?

Who has done enough damage in the 60-game season where they're not a lock to be a top 20 hitter going into next season? And then we'll get to the point where we can start talking about possible replacements, the players who've done enough to join that, let's call it an elite group of top 20 hitters. I realize you can draw the lines in different places for all different reasons, but for you, what would cause a player to fall out of the first two rounds as a hitter? What could have gone wrong for them this season that would be enough for you to say, yeah, you know what, it's a shortened season, but my expectations going forward are considerably lower than they were going into 2020?

You know, it can't just be poor performance because people have bad years. You know, and poor performance, you know, sometimes injuries are really interesting aspect of it. Cause I think injury can go both ways. You can say, well, you know, Alex Bregman was out this year with injury. Maybe that's why he hasn't stolen the base. And, but was it the kind of injury that presages more injury? Is it an age-related injury? How much should I dock him based on just injury? You know, like a Stanton or Judge, you start to be like, okay, they're out because there's

too many of these injuries. That's injury prone. But Bregman? I don't know. So injury, age, and poor performance are all reasons, but they kind of have to work together in a certain way. And poor performance a lot of times has to be a certain type of poor performance. So I'm a little bit more out on Adalberto Mondesi's poor performance than I am on J.D. Martinez's. But J.D. Martinez has that age component. So maybe I'm just out on both.

But yeah, like Cody Bellinger. Poor performance, but in terms of walk and strikeout rates and batted ball mix to some extent, a lot is there to like. And he's young enough to believe, I think I'm keeping him in my top 20. So it's about the components of the performance, the type of injury, and the age all kind of work together. Yeah, it's really interesting because I put together a custom leaderboard

of the top 20 hitters based on ADP, and only four have returned a WRC plus below 100 so far this season. Bellinger, surprisingly, is one of them. Nolan Arenado, we've talked about him. He's got a shoulder injury. He hasn't met himself all year. His strikeout rate's way down. He's under 10% with his K rate,

which if you think about him doing that over a full 162 in Colorado, you kind of think the batting average could go through the roof, right? That's good, but maybe physically he's just been playing with that ailment long enough where that's why the power numbers haven't quite been where we expect them to be. So it's Bellinger, Arenado, J.D. Martinez, and Mondesi. Mondesi, we talked about him I think a week or two ago, that WRC plus creeping up, it's at 48 right now, which I've just never seen from an elite player or potentially elite player.

Not through patience or anything else, just via some power. He hit some dongs. Right right but he's got 17 steals like it's it's so hard to completely write him off because he brings so much category juice in a place where it's difficult to find and i think as we talk about what moves some hitters up that's often one of the things that separates a player that has similar skills to players in this group, but then is missing that one thing that keeps players out. So I think of those four, I think you can make a pretty easy case that Mondesi drops out of the top 20 hitters. He's still going to be an early round pick. He's still going to be an exciting player. There's still reasons to believe he can get better. He is coming off that shoulder surgery, as we mentioned

a couple of weeks ago. It's not as though he's lacking power completely four homers on the season for a guy that also steals bases like that that's nice you think about him as maybe a 12 to 15 homer guy that could steal you 50 bases if he gets the k rate down and could get the batting average to a respectable level maybe you're getting still get borderline first round value oh yeah he's still gonna be probably a third or fourth rounder, right? Yeah, he will. I don't think it'll be by me. I think it still won't be by me.

But I think J.D. Martinez falls out, and there's where I think age is maybe the biggest component out of everyone. I've got one more name where age is huge. But J.D. Martinez is 32 years old, and though people talk about it being video or a lost season or boston being bad and maybe he'll be better again in the future at 32 uh we have that research from jim zimmerman that says projected bounce backs are less believable after 32 so as much as i will buy some shares of jd martinez it may have to drop to the fourth or fifth round like i don't know if i'm going to be an early third rounder on jd martinez so

uh he's him and monice here an easy drop out of this 20 for me one thing that's going to probably nudge that value or that price down for jd martinez even further next season i don't think he's played enough in the outfield to qualify, depending on how your league is going to set up rules. Something to think about now, actually, are you going to lower the thresholds for what qualifies at a position since we only played 60 games this year? But J.D. Martinez, if he's UT only, that comes with a discount

even for guys that haven't shown any sort of decline at the plate. Nelson Cruz, of course, the most prominent example of that. But I think Cruz sort of gives you the most interesting toss-up right off the cuff. Like, if you're thinking about these two hitters, do you feel better about Nelson Cruz in 2021, or do you feel better about J.D. Martinez in 2021? The age is so extreme on Cruz that, like, I think I'm, as much as he's doing great this year, like a 41-year-old?

It's crazy. I don't think I'll be in. JD's played five games in the outfield, by the way, so far. Five games in a 60-game season is borderline enough. I think I've seen seven listed as a cutoff because everyone's trying to do the multiply by 2.7, 2.6 to get something close to a full season. I think five is a number that I'm comfortable with if I'm setting rules for next season, by the way. Especially with expanded rosters, right?

There's more likelihood that people are moving around. Yeah, I think so. I think I'm in on Martinez, though, for next year because I think the discount's going to be steep enough where he's like a fifth or sixth round pick. I think he's going to fall that much. I think that type of profile. Yeah, around there I'm into it.

Yeah, that type of profile gets downgraded more than it probably should. I fully understand and respect that research. If Buzzer falls out of the top two rounds, I'm in. Even if he falls, like if early third or something, I'd be all in if he's if he falls to the just the middle of the second i think i might even still be in uh because there are guys that i'd like better i like bellinger better like bellinger versus alec breitman for one right it's like bellinger's gonna steal uh bellinger had power bellinger was was healthy this year he just had a down year i'm willing to give him that i think so i might take bellinger over bregman bellinger and christian

yelich are still pretty similar the key difference though when you look at him side by side is yelich's strikeout rates a lot higher right now 31.3 entering play this weekend bellinger at 17.6 that's much less troubling by comparison. These two guys each have 10 homers thus far. Their run production is similar. They both run. Batting average is down. Yelich is walking more, so there's more opportunity there just to

score based on that. But I think they're going to be mid-first round picks, probably in the pick 7 to pick ten range, if I had to forecast where they go, because you have a couple of guys. Because they've been so good in the past, they won't fall that far. Right.

They've got enough track record, and they do everything, so they're only going to fall a little ways. They're not going to fall down to round two. And the projections for them are probably going to be decent, because if you're doing a projection for next year, are probably going to be decent because if you're doing a projection for next year, you're going to have basically a third of a season of this year. You won't wait it that much. Yeah. So you'll wait a lot more 2018, I think.

So the projections will be decent. A lot of people will run off the auction calculator. So, yeah, you're right. They won't fall that far. Arnauto, though, had already fallen to the beginning of the second. So I could see him falling out of the second with this year. I could see him going kind of at that 2-3 turn early round three, which feels like too much of a discount.

We'll find out what's going on with his shoulder probably after the season if he has some kind of surgery or something. Maybe that kind of skews where he's going as well. But if you bring Jelic and Bellinger out, we're talking about some guys who are creeping up into that top five range Fernando Tatis Jr. has to at least be in that conversation but let's start at the very top I mean if you had the first pick in a draft and we were drafting today or next week for 2021 who would you actually take with the first overall pick at this point well I did some funny things so first I did the auction calculator at Fangraphs and put in steamer rest of season,

15 team, 5.0F, that sort of deal. And I almost want listeners, I'm going to switch over to something else and give you a time to think about it. So that's my method. Steamer rest of season auction calculator. Try to imagine who's number one i don't think you'll get it i don't even think you'll get number two or number three

maybe you'll you'll get number four so just try to think who who the steamer rest of season auction value says are the top three players because i find it almost nonsensical. Then I did a different method where I just used the bat X. Rest of season projection is not in the auction calculator, so it's just by WOBA. And this one lines up with my expectations. So this one goes Trout, Betts, Soto, and later on Turner, Bellinger, Judge. Judge, you're thinking he's just about to be healthy,

so you can kind of give him some plate appearances. That's why he's so far up there. But Trout, Betts, Soto, I think is my top three. And I think you probably flipped the order too, right? If you had the first overall pick, you'd go Betts there because he runs. And Soto, maybe because of youth, gets the nod over Trout because Trout's not running anymore I mean if you said who's going to steal more bases next year Soto or Trout I'd be on the Soto side of that if you look at the skills as hitters Soto strikes out a lot less he's walked more this

season I think because he missed a little time people aren't realizing how good this shortened season has been for Soto it's been another growth year for him. He's unbelievable. And the Nats haven't been good either. So I think that's kind of playing into it a little bit. So I think he kind of fits as the younger version of current Trout. I don't know if there's a lot of stolen base potential with him, but he also might be a guy that could win a batting title and a home run title simultaneously. He might have that sort of ceiling that he could reach. He could be a triple crowner, dude. Yes, I think that's absolutely a possibility for him. But I think the other tricky thing here is if that's your top three, it means Tatis and Acuna aren't in it and they can do everything. They're probably inside the top six for everybody if they're not

higher. I think you just made my top five. I mean, that not higher i think you just made my top five i mean that's my top five i think my top five goes something like betts soto trout tatis acuna or acuna tatis i think acuna tatis that's just really hard because both of them they're kind of similar they're very like you know very athletic players with with a similar flaw in strikeout rate. And I guess I'm going to push Tatis ahead of Acuna based on injury this year. But we can't forget that Tatis had similar types of injuries last year. These super athletic types seem to kind of find their way in injury. I mean, I just saw Acuna threw the ball in from the outfield and got a finger cramp the other day. I don't know. I don't know if that's meaningful. It's

probably not. But like, I was like, what is going on here? And like Tatis got like a repetitive stress fracture in his back just because he's so athletic and so young and still growing that like, this is like somehow like a common occurrence now that people get these like stress injuries in their backs um because they play so hard at such a young age i don't know something like that it was somebody tried to explain it to me i didn't get it so you know uh similar i think the symbol they have similar flaws that keep me out of the top five still uh but that's that's my top five something like bets soto trout to t sakunya all right so then that keeps story out of the group which i think story has a case to be in

there i think he's doing everything he's got coors to kind of keep that floor as high as it possibly can be i don't really worry about him as much as i did previously i think he's cut some of the swing and miss in his game. You're going to see kind of low to mid 20% range K rates from him instead of a number closer to 30. So as long as he keeps that and he keeps running the way he's been running, there's not much holding him back from

being a top five consideration either. I can't believe he has 14 steals in this sort of a season. I mean, you would project him out to like a 30 stolen base thing with this going forward. And it's certainly possible, but at 27, um, you know, my law of bell curves says that, you know, the crate K percentage is going to start creeping back up again. Um, and the stolen bases are going to start going away soon. I don't know how soon. And it definitely seems like he's in the middle of a,

of a peak, his peak in his career and best walk rate. And, you know, a lot of like maybe the best approach and combining he's like, he's, I don't know if people understand how much of an athlete he is. He, you know, he can throw the ball 98. So he's a guy who can throw the ball hard, run hard, hit the ball hard. I mean, he is very, very athletic. But at the same time, for me, he's going to be 28 next year. Going into next year, he's going to be 28. I think this may end up being his peak season, at least in terms of rate stats. But even if he's not top five, he might be next five in that 6-10 range, part of that cluster where we kind of left

Yelich and Bellinger from pulling them out. Trey Turner's firmly in that next five, I think, too. Still showing that power-speed combo, keeping the K rate down, so he's well above average in terms of what he could bring you in the batting average category to go along with it. You said the magic word.

I said the magic word. Which magic word? Trey Turner. The answer to magic word. I said the magic word. Which magic word? Trey Turner. The answer to the trivia question I asked earlier, Steamer rest of season projected best value in baseball, Trey Turner, number one. Number two, Paul Goldschmidt in a virtual tie with Kristen Yellich,

Juan Soto, and Trevor Story. So Trey Turner above and beyond. Still getting some value for stolen bases rest of season when that's the only concerning thing for me. Is that he seems to have already started that stolen base decline. Yeah, I think the interesting thing here is that we're not even talking about pitchers being factored in. You could squeeze a few aces up into this top 10 range of the draft board too. So some of these guys we're talking about couldn't being late first round picks

in formats where the top end pitching gets moved into the earlier middle part of round one. Here's a question for you though. I'm going to do this sort of hot takery. Here's a sort of a bold prediction. There will be many many drafts next year with no pitcher in the first round the only one i can think of that approaches the sort of triumvirate that we had last year or going into this year um is jake degrom because i

think that cole has made some people worry no or is it Colin DeGrom? He's made a few people worry, so I think instead of being a top five overall guy, he's maybe a back of the first round guy. I think this makes sense, though, because if you start looking at it, DeGrom is thinking to be a first rounder. I think he's the surest bet to be a first rounder. Bieber's probably

there, but you could argue he hasn't done it long enough because of the shortened season. Maybe you still like him better in two, but Verlander has been hurt and he's another year older. Scherzer is starting that decline too. Those guys were in the first round before. Buehler hasn't taken the leap yet, so I think he's not really going

up. He was, I think, pick 17 going into 2020. Clevenger, nope. Sorry, he's fallen a little bit. Not joining the group. Jack Flaherty I think he'll get there someday but I don't, up and down it hasn't been good enough to lock it in

I forgot about Bieber, DeGrom's recent hamstring injury maybe I'm just waiting it too much because it just happened and we don't even know if it's going to keep him out of his next start, but DeGrom's sitting as hard as he is and being as old as Kershaw I don't know if people know that but as old as Kershaw. I don't know if people know that, but same age as Kershaw. I know not same velocity,

but there's a little bit of a hint of injury risk. We talked about that before. Cole just giving up a ton of homers this year. Otherwise, seems fine. I think the pitchers will get moved to the back of the first round and you know the highest adp for a pitcher might be something like 10 for de grom and cole and bieber will be like a 14 15 like a guy that somebody wants to take at the turn with a hitter yeah so i think to modify your hot take maybe we'll see more drafts than usual where you don't see a pitcher go in the first 10 picks,

and you'll see people who have that late first rounder take their pick of maybe the top three or top five pitchers, ensure they get one ace with their first two picks, and then you'll see everybody else who passed maybe get their first one in round two or round three. And I don't see enough pitchers to do two. You know, there were a lot of people going into this year that took two.

Bat flip crazy. What's his real name? Toby. Toby, that's right. Toby, I'm in drafts with him or at least one draft a year and he does well by loading up on pitching early. I'm always like

this seems crazy. I have to go flip over and see how he did in the league this year, but it seems to work for him. And there is this research by Phil DeSoto that says that, you know, top pitchers return good value. At the same time, like, I just think there's that injury risk, the projections are worse for pitchers. Like, I'm sticking with it.

And I just can't, when I look at the pitchers out there, I just can't see taking two pitchers first. I can't see going pitcher, pitcher next year. Trying to think of a scenario in which I would do that. If Bieber made it to the second round and you went Cole Bieber, maybe. But you'd have to be like 12th and then people have to pass on Bieber. I don't think you would see Bieber again. So you'd have to go like 12th, and then people would have to pass on Bieber. I don't think you would see Bieber again. So you'd have to go like Cole Clevenger.

I wouldn't. Yeah. For now, I don't have an obvious path there to make it happen. That is subject to change, of course, as we get further along into the process. Now, I think we should talk about a few guys that fell short of the top 10 and talk about a few guys that should join the early rounds. If you look at guys who were pretty safely in this conversation previously, Francisco Lindor was kind of a steady five to eight range guy in most drafts. It's been a relative down year for him. Still not that bad. Eight homers, four steals, 281 average. What do you make of Lindor? Is this just some noise? I mean, this is a guy that does play every day and max out his volume. I don't question the skills are elite or close to it,

but I do wonder how much he benefits from normally just crushing volume from a playing perspective. And I question, I don't think he'll ever see 30-plus homers again. And I don't know if he'll ever see 20 plus steals again so to me he's kind of a volume play a good shortstop and not necessarily he's definitely not a first rounder for me anymore and I just just generally think of him as a really solid player, kind of like 25, maybe 25, 15, 25, 20, really good. And maybe undervalued, um, coming off the season, especially since his, his batting average is so steady and this, you know, the batting average of the league keeps going down. So, you know, I love him kind of as a second round pick, you know, I think he's going to be

a guy that's popular to pair with one of those pitchers. If you do take DeGrom or Cole or Bieber in the first round, coming back through, I think you're going to say, I want someone who can do something in every category. Lindor's that guy. Yes, and steady. I don't think you want that much risk with your first player, your first hitter, if you took a pitcher first.

that much risk with your first player, your first hitter, if you took a pitcher first, you know, so I don't think you would, I don't necessarily think you would take like a Gliber Torres, or even a Rafael Devers, if you took a pitcher first, considering his K to BB and the way he started out this year and the fact that he stopped stealing bases. So I think that, yeah, stealing bases. So I think that, yeah, I agree with you. I think you would do a pairing there. So here's a guy for me that drops out of the top 20 that it might not be obvious to people, but because he's having a good year, Starling Marte is having a good year. And he's hitting 300 and he's got power and speed and, you know, the metrics are mostly there for him, but he's 31 years old. And if you prorate out his steals, you're talking more like an 18, 15 to 18 steal guy. And, you know, if he's doing that, I think you had a great comp for him.

What was your comp for him now? I think he's going to get priced the way Tommy Pham has been priced, maybe a little bit higher, just because he doesn't have quite the same concerns with his health I mean I think a lot of people have been fearful of Tommy Pham's eye condition and then he's had a couple other injuries on top of that that have kind of pushed him into the 60 to 75 range among overall players I think for Marte we're probably looking at 40 to 50 range I mean yeah if he's a 15 20 like 15 home or 20 steel guy with a decent average it's a nice player he's gonna play a lot but it is it is the the graceful decline of a five category player so a nice early round pick but definitely not a guy who's going to get jammed up

into the top 20 among hitters with the expectation that he's going to steal 35 bases again yeah exactly so um and that's where age comes in too i mean the 31 years old you just you just get you just get uh more risky you know you're already i think people don't understand that you're already risky at sort of 28 29 that's part of why trout you know drops out of the top one for me um is his age um and so if you're already risky at 28 29 you know norland arenado 29 coming off that season uh then even if you're coming off a 28-29, Nolan Arenado at 29 coming off that season, then even if you're coming off a decent season like Marte's coming at 31, you're that much riskier.

And feel free to tweet at us if you disagree with some of the players we think are going to fall out of the group. So Marte may be the most surprising of the bunch. Gleyber Torres was barely in it. I think he gets bumped off after what's happening this season. Arenado, I think, is a possibility to go to that 2-3 turn. We talked about JD. We talked about Mondesi.

Not guys who are going to completely crater in value, but just guys who are going to get moved aside. And I think we should talk about some of the guys who are likely to replace them. So we've got like five spots, three to five spots to get in there. And you had some good groups. Should we just list the group and sort of talk about them a little bit? Yeah, so here's the group that I put together.

I had two groups of players, one much smaller than the other, and I listed these as the best cases to join the elite. Again, we're defining elite as top 20 overall fantasy hitters. This basically means top 30 overall players when you kind of factor in where pitchers normally go the five players i put in this group were luis robert boba shett people are nodding along so far now they're gonna start shaking their head no tim anderson trent grisham and xander bogarts and before you throw your listening device your phone your laptop whatever you're

listening on hopefully not your car don't throw that into a wall before you throw your device into a wall and say DVR is a moron other guys that were considered but we'll talk about why didn't make it are guys like Jose Abreu, Manny Machado, Luke Voigt, Marcelo Zuna, Eloy Jimenez, Kyle Tucker like we got reasons these guys aren't quite in this level, even though their value is probably going to be up a bit coming off of this 2020 season. I think it's becoming a prerequisite that you run at least a little to be a top 20 player, at least to be a new top 20 player.

I think some of these other players have long enough track records where they were kind of grandfathered in, and the community just sort of accepts them as, well, this is an old guy with a 10-year track record of mashing or a five-year track record of mashing. I don't care if he doesn't steal bases. It's fine. Each of these five guys who I think are the best cases to join the elite have been running at least a little, and some could run a lot. So let's start with Luis Robert. I think he's one of the most interesting players in the game right now. I think he's one of the hardest players to evaluate because, as we've said before, a new player this season isn't going to necessarily see the full round of adjustments

that teams are going to make to the scouting report against him. The overall line right now, 252, 314, 497. So he's 17% better than league average, 11 homers. He's eight for 10 as a base stealer, and he's getting it done with a 31.6% K rate. And it leads us to a familiar argument. Is he going to strike out less because he's adjusting to big league pitching? or is this something that's very much just kind of ingrained in his skill set are there enough ways to beat him where that's kind of going to be a problem for more than the upcoming season the keston hero problem probably just in a different bundle you know uh the good news is that it's not so short of a season that you don't see any kind of uh regression you know

what i mean like just in terms of like you can see it on the team level the orioles jumped down everyone said oh my god are the orioles and the tigers gonna make the postseason no no they're not and like it was nice they had a little stretch but you know this is enough of a season where you're like, oh yeah, this is enough of a season. And I think with Robert, you saw he blew the doors off the league to begin with. And monthly splits, I don't even think are going to really get this off. There's actually a first half, second half split, which is just kind of amazing. But this is my first time kind of perusing these but uh his monthly split uh he had a 296 average in july uh 298 in august and so far a 130 average uh in september i think that speaks to uh what you're saying i don't think that the 130 average, I mean, it's 17 days. It's just not too indicative.

But it does carry with it that risk you're talking about. It's like, could they figure him out? Yes, his batted balls are elite. He's elite when it comes to steals. But could they figure him out at the plate? Like, could they figure him out at the plate? And I think, you know, Adalberto Mondesi is a name worth bringing up. I'm hesitant to throw him in the same boat, though, because an 8% walk rate already in almost 200 plate appearances from Robert, I can't even, in my wildest dreams, put that walk rate on Adalberto Mondesi.

And it's important. It's important, too, because in terms of his swing metrics, they're bad, but they're not necessarily as bad. And also, there's a real chance here, he swings 60% of the time, which is just sort of amazing. It's just really, really aggressive. And there's just a chance that as that comes down as you age you swing less that's just part of the aging curve as that comes down he basically he'll have a response at some point to pitchers where he

stops swinging as much and his walk rate goes up and there'll be a short period of time where maybe he doesn't have a great batting average but he has a better obp and his walk rate goes up, and there'll be a short period of time where maybe he doesn't have a great batting average, but he has a better OBP, and his walk rate goes up, and then the pitchers decide they have to come back in the zone somehow. That's the sort of cat and mouse. I just wanted to bring up Montessi as a scare tactic. If he replaces Montessi in the top 20, then I'm okay with that.

I would say like he's maybe slightly more risky, but he's also slightly more steady and the floor is higher than Montessi. So I'm going to go with Robert as a guy who can replace Montessi. But like, do you think he'll go in the first 10 hitters? First 10 is a possibility. I think he'll go in the first 10 hitters first 10s a possibility that's i think he's definitely in that first 20 like i think he's there's so there's too many exciting things he can do for him to not join that group we've we've kind of found that to be

the back end of the cutoff of where a player without a long track record but with great tools can go so i think he's absolutely capable that that. We're so desperate for speed, but he brings it with power. And there is some kind of component. This is not at all strategy, but I think our brains want to draft exciting players. We do want to have fun with the teams we're building. So I think that's like an extra little force that kind of pulls on us,

and our job is to separate ourselves from emotions like that that goes against like jd martinez or something yeah exactly right like what's probably why a player with that track record fell as much as he did this year and well it turned out that was a good decision to avoid him but i guess that's not necessarily totally relevant to what we're looking at here so i think luis roberts in the top 20 among hitters i think his adp if you said set the over under for his overall adp in nfb ceilings for 2021 i would said that over under is 20 pick 25 i think that's where you'd put that that that estimate that line you know it's just interesting to put him up against someone like trent grisham where the tools are not as prodigious but the um floor seems higher but the projections favor robert well here's this interesting thing

about louise robert too so i just ran a search on fan graphs looking at the last 11 years now so going back to 2010 i wanted to see among qualified hitters who has a swing rate at 60% or near 60% even. So here are the players since 2010, qualified hitters who've done that. Henzer Alberto, all-time highest in 2020, 61.4% swing rate. Adam Jones in 2016. Marlon Bird in 2015. Jonathan Scope in 2016. AJ Perzinski in 2013. What are you doing, AJ? Adam Jones again in 2015.

Luis Robert. Seventh in the last decade plus in that among qualified hitters. Jeff McNeil last year swung a lot, but he's a totally different type of player just in terms of what he's trying to do when he makes contact. Adam Jones makes a lot more contact than Robert.

Right. But I wonder, if you come into the league with this approach, do you keep it or do you actually improve it? I think this is interesting because we're not talking about early career Adam Jones. We're talking about closer to peak, like slightly back end of peak Adam Jones was doing this.

Eddie Rosario in 2019 at 59.1%. That's kind of an interesting similar thing going on there. I mean, but the key difference, he runs a lot more than Eddie Rosario. You're right. So if you had Eddie Rosario's speed, you might actually have had him. Like I had a lot of shares of Eddie Rosario. But the flip side is, again, Eddie Rosario makes more contact.

He looks like one of these aggressive contact hitters that sort of, he looks like a guy who should have a 3% or 4% walk rate and an 18% strikeout rate. And then he doesn't have the 18% strikeout rate. Part of this is really weird, you know, because there's a chicken and egg problem where you wonder if teams are encouraging hitters to be aggressive because Adam Jones isn't the only Oriole on this list. There's a bunch of other guys that have played for the Orioles with him

and since he's been there. The White Sox have a bunch of players. 2017, Avi Garcia. 2020, Robert. 2015, Avi Garcia. 2019, Robert. 2015, Avi Garcia. 2019, Tim Anderson's pretty high on this list. So you have some teams that have more of a free-swinging approach. Now, that could just be the types of players that they believe in

because they're looking for tools as opposed to sabermetrically pleasing walk rates, right? Like that might be just a difference in org philosophy, but also it might be a difference in, hey, we want you to find your pitch and hit it it's a hitting coach thing too one of the biggest ways that hitting coach can make a difference is in swing rate though so something that pizza cutter russell carton found a baseball prospectus that that the one of the biggest uh sort of metrics that uh that a hitting coach can change is is just straight up swing percentage uh so they may have just had uh more hunt your-pitch kind of swing coaches

rather than wait-for-your-pitch kind of swing coaches. Right. So I think it's really difficult to look at it, especially in year one. We're not even going to get a full season and say, okay, this aggressive approach, this hyper-aggressive approach, this is who he is and this is who he always will be. Is it discouraging based on the names that we see on this list maybe a little i mean vlad when he's with the orioles vlad famous

original vlad not vlad jr of course since he's been a jay his whole career 59.1 in 2011 so we've seen elite players we have seen at least one elite player operate with that kind of aggressive approach but that's a pretty extreme outlier in the grand scheme of things. But then again, peak Vlad. And Vlad had a plus, plus, plus, plus, plus hit to him. Right. And I don't know if anyone's going to say that about Robert, but he's got the power.

He's got the speed. He's got everything we're looking for as fantasy players. I think he's, I'm saying a 25 is the number for his overall adp in 2021 yeah are you at that price second the second round um i'll have to see who's around him but like i mean just sort of perusing um our uh let's see if i can peruse your leaderboard, your custom leaderboard you put together. I'm guessing that would be what I'd be choosing between maybe like Bregman, Bryce Harper. Yeah, Bregman, Devers, Harper, Robert maybe are the guys you're looking at in that range. Freddie Freeman's probably in there, if not a little earlier, but same kind of thing.

I know the age on Harper, 27, but I think I'm taking Harper over Robert. I don't know if that's controversial. I don't think so. I think the projections are probably going to steer you that way. And I might take Bregman, too. I just think he's a very good player, and I think with better health he'll steal some bases. And I'm just kind of biased towards... I definitely have a strong bias towards Bregman types

with the 14% walk rate and the 14% strikeout rate. You know what I mean? I just love that. I just think it shows great play discipline and contact ability, and he's made the most out of his power in the past. So Bregman and Harper go over him. Devers and who did I say? Arnauto or?

I'd say Freeman's in there. Freeman. Then you're talking about guys who don't steal, you know, and I can't even project them into steals. Then I'd take Robertbert i think all right so i've got it set probably at a reasonable point how about the next guy that made my list how about beau bichette does he belong in this group is bichette versus luis robert for 2021 an actual toss-up should bichette be going even earlier than luis robert i really like Bichette, dude. I really like that the

strikeout rate came down to where it was in the minor leagues. I really like that he's shown pull power. I really like that his batted ball stats are good. His barrel rate is really good, even though it's in a slightly smaller sample because he was hurt. I really

think that Bichette did everything you want this year. And I have him, and this might be controversial again, I have him over Tim Anderson. And I know that they both have outsized batting averages on balls and plays. You know, league average is 300. Bobichette has like a 345 this year, 361 career. but Tim Anderson's I've got to do a leader on board on this, Tim Anderson's is ridiculous

since the beginning of 2019 he has a 400 plus 400 plus Babbitt and I mean I think second place on this list is going to be nowhere close so let's see here, I'm going to be nowhere close. Let's see here. I'm going to sort by Babbit since the beginning of 2019. And you've got Tim Anderson, 409. Juan Mankata, 389. Trevor Story, 360.

See how quickly that falls off? Yeah, that's extreme. I think Tim Anderson's worth talking about here, though, because he took some major steps forward last season. You mentioned before we started recording, he figured out sliders. He was really struggling with sliders prior to last season. So he turned that around. He brought his K rate down.

He still doesn't walk a lot. So that's always going to ding him in terms of just how we glance at those and think, all right, we want a good patient hitter. That's still not who he is. Sure, nobody's going to hold that 400 BABIP over multiple years. The fact that he's even done it this long is pretty surprising, but his average exit velocity jumped last year. He's maintained those gains, and the way he uses the entire field now also is really encouraging. I thought that batting average was very fluky. It might not have been fluky at all when you take a closer look at the ways he's adjusted to how he hits the ball.

Instead of pulling everything or pulling a lot of pitches, it's pretty even in terms of the distribution. Last season especially went the opposite way 30% of the time, only pulled the ball 32.7% of the time. And I think that's the distribution you want for a guy that runs really well and does make a little bit of hard contact. I think the biggest knock in his profile, aside from that walk rate is the ground ball rate you just worry that he can't really get to any more power if he's going to hit the ball on the ground 54 percent of

the time yeah his barrel rate uh pretty decent this year at 9.8 percent like twice what it was last year but um yeah given the ground ball rate and given the fact like given the fact that he had three straight years of like basically a 4.9 barrel or five straight years four straight years of a five percent if you want to do that um i think you would project him barrel rate wise for like a five and a half six next year so um i think his power will take a step back next year um you could do you could do that same projection just with ISO, and you'd see the same thing where you'll project him for like a 180 league average type ISO. And that's fine if he steals, but his steals right now, I think come out to sort of 15.

Bo Bichette, fewer plate appearances, so there's still the hope that he's more like a 20-base stealer. I believe in Bobachet's power more, and so I think that there's a chance for a more well-rounded player, and I'm just worried that the Russian might come pretty hard. Just look at the projected BABIPs by different system, and it's kind of amazing.ips has him for his 365 projected babbitt rest of season for 309 batting average rest of season uh steamer 334 the bat x which uses stat cast 340 uh the bat x says he'll have a 275 average and that's just what i believe that's that's the one i believe 275 batting average league league average power, and 15 steals. So that works out to a 275, you know, 2015 guy.

And I just think that Bo Bichette's projections, they vary from 276 to 288. You know, it's just less variance on the projection. I think it's more likely that he's like a 280, 290 hitter with similar power, maybe more power, and similar speed, and maybe more speed. So you know what I'm saying? I think the error bars are going in the better direction for Bobachet. So I'm taking Bobachet over Tim Anderson. I think both of those guys belong in.

And it's problematic because you pointed out a third shortstop that should probably join the top group, and I totally missed this guy's season because I have zero shares, and it's been pretty amazing what he's doing. Xander Bogarts, I feel like no one's really talking about him, or maybe I'm not listening to enough Red Sox pods. Actually, with all due respect to anyone who hosts a Red Sox pod, that's just not for me.

But 30 homer, 15 stolen base pace. He's been flirting with this sort of level for a few years anyway. So you've got a multi-year track record. You still have a relatively young player. And it's probably a team that gets better in the offseason. I can't imagine they're looking at some sort of multi-year rebuild. They're going to try and retool and add something there. Spending around the league is going to be weird, so maybe that's too much of a leap to assume that any team is

going to spend money going into next season, but he's doing everything. The batting average floor is really high. We've got the long track record. There's power. There's some speed. That ticks all the boxes, right? If Tim Anderson's too risky for you, Xander Bogarts is probably the guy that you want. I actually think Anderson's going to fall short of this group. I think there's still a lot of bias against him based on the player he was pre-2019. I think he's going to go very close to Starling Marte in drafts actually, because I think their roto profiles are pretty similar, right? It's good batting average, some power, some speed some speed different position of course

but i think anderson's adp is going to fall in that 40 to 50 range so he's going to be a little bit of a value if you believe that what he's been doing is largely sustainable and i'm leaning more toward that side so even for me i'm probably bogarts over anderson but if i miss out on bogarts i'm not panicking because anderson's going to 10, 15, maybe even 20 picks later in some cases. It's a little bit – it's kind of amazing. I think it has something to do with youth. Think about this. There's usually not a 30-year-old shortstop.

Let me see if that bears out this year. But year to year, you don't normally think of there being a 30-year-old shortstop. So it's a position of youth. And so when we talk about baseball kind of going towards being a sport for the youth, that's why we keep seeing shortstops at the top of our draft boards. And it's tempting to be like, well, I can always get another shortstop later, but they're the best hitters. They're the best players.

So, you know, you can almost take the SS off of that. And this year, the only guys, the 30 and above are Didi Gregorius, Brandon Crawford, Nick Ahmed. And Nick Ahmed is a sort of a defensive whiz and granted Crawford was one that had, you know, a bit of a bat renaissance this year and Didi Gregorius, I think, um, we'll see if he's a shortstop for much longer, you know, it could be kind of doing the John Zagura thing where he's a short stop second baseman in the next couple of years. I like

Didi a lot. I think he's going to start moving around a bit more defensively though now that he's reached this stage of his career. Last player I listed who has a case for this elite status is Trent Grisham. I think most people are going to roll their eyes and just say, yeah, no, sorry. We're not doing this.

But the more I watch him, the more I'm a believer. And I saw him quite a bit last year, of course, with the Brewers. I was surprised when they made that trade, but not stunned. He seems a little bit more in his element. Not necessarily. There's something about San Diego trading for him that I think was good for him. Well, yeah, I think the problem he was going to face in Milwaukee, you and I talked about it on the Brewer's Pod up to the end of the season,

his career in Milwaukee was going to be defined by the unfortunate error in the wild card game until some other big moment happened where he could rise up and do something spectacular. And that may have taken years to happen, right? You can't really control when those situations come around. Yeah, like with a fresh slate in San Diego, a homer off Kershaw with a stare down is enough to solidify you as a star among your fans, right? Like that was a huge moment.

I think if he hits that homer off of Kershaw as a brewer, you know, people are like, are like oh yeah that was pretty cool i don't know if they engage in the debate as much or you know like you should have seen san diego versus dodger fans because also the standings because of long-term hatred in division rivalry that sort of deal uh it was very active on twitter it was course a talking heads thing and it became a whole deal and there was battling phot's and this and that. But I think it was, you know, actually a cool moment because it represented at least a little bit a part of the San Diego being like, we're on the rise and we're here, you know, like we're here and we're

ready to battle you guys. And we don't we're not afraid at all. And I think it solidified him as a guy there. It's interesting because he doesn't have the elite sort of batted ball or sprint speed type stuff that Robert has. Robert has like a 15% barrel rate, which is the possibility of kind of being a top 10 or top 5 guy. Grisham has a 10.8% barrel rate. It's not as good, but it's very good. Yeah.

You know, and I guess we should put that in context. But just, you know, I would say that's something that's true of Grisham across the board. And that's what, you know, I think, you know, I'm not speaking from having spoken to Dave Cameron about this, but I know Dave Cameron. And I know he works with the analytics squad there in San Diego. And I know that he did really well with his auto-new teams. And he did a really good job. And I think that one of the things that he likes

and that I've seen him like in the past is guys that are just really, really good across the board, you know? And that's, I think, a really good description of Grisham. Like maybe he's not going to be the best defensive center fielder, and maybe he's not going to be the guy who leads in barrels. So when it comes to something like barrels per batted ball event like you know um his his number 10.8 10.9 is 68th in the big leagues uh to put that in context uh there's 258 qualifiers so you know it's very good but it's not um you know something like what

robert does which is 19th in the big leagues. And it's not something that like even Tatis right now is fifth in the big leagues in barrels per batted ball event. So it's good, but not very good. And that's why I, not elite elite, that's why I think he won't necessarily join the top because people will be like, is gonna steal me 30 i don't think so is he gonna hit me 30 maybe but i don't think so is he gonna hit 300 i don't think so so i think he falls almost into that fam-esque trap of just being a good player a good third rounder maybe a guy who you expect to uh steal you 20 bases and hit you 25 and hit 250 or 260, you know, just a really good all-around line.

A lot of these guys get devalued. And, you know, I've had Eddie Rosario. Speaking of Eddie Rosario, I've had Eddie Rosario in a lot of leagues just because nobody cares about him, you know, and he doesn't end up on leaderboards. You know, he doesn't end up on leaderboards you know he doesn't end up on leaderboards uh people care about grisham but i i don't think they care about him on the level of like a robert or a first two round hitting star so i don't actually think he'll join the top two rounds but i think he'll be um a potential top two round value you know what i mean i think he'll be a good pick right guy you get it pick 40 or 50 that gives you top 25 round value. You know what I mean? I think he'll be a good pick. Right guy. You get it. Pick 40 or 50. That gives you top 25 overall value next year,

which is totally fine. I, if that's how the market season, that's how the market season. But I look at the sprint speed, 95th percentile sprint speed too. I think it just, it backs up the seven for eight stolen base mark so far this season.

If you see him as a, a 2020 guy in the park as a left-handed hitter, Petco works against him quite a bit with that power, but I think he does have a good all-fields approach. He used to go the opposite way too much as a lower-level prospect for the Brewers, and he's kind of found that sweet spot. A little piece about playoffs, for the playoffs, and what teams fit what, and I found that the biggest discrepancy between right-handed and left-handed power factor is by stat cast.

I just did home runs per barrel. And from the right side, Petco is the third friendliest park for right-handed barrels. And from the left side, they're 22nd friendliest. So it is an interesting thing how the park uh relates to his skills and i i mentioned that like a team there was a really weird fit where like the twins

for example um are number one in right-handed uh barrels right there's there's something to that because i think uh well the dozer example the the pulling the ball the righty gets rewarded in minnesota in a pretty big way, and I think they've got some guys that do it. The lefties were like 23rd in pulling barrels on the Twins. It's weird. They have lefty spray hitters and righty pull barrel hitters. That's why Donaldson signed them.

That's why they went hard after Donaldson. It's kind of fun when you land on something like that, and you're like, oh, there's that extra little nudge. There's that reason why they were willing to go to that fourth year, give them the extra few million dollars. If you think we forgot anybody for best case to join the elite, hit us up on Twitter. He's at Eno Saris.

I'm at Derek Van Ryper. We've got a few more things to get to, mostly focusing on pitching you can pick up for the stretch run. We'll get to that in just a moment after a few words from our sponsors. Hi, I'm the Athletics Joe Posnanski for Indochino. Finding clothes that fit you just right can be incredibly challenging, especially for somebody like me who has a body type I would call dumpy. It's tough to find anything that fits right. You know, I'm not really a large, I'm not really an extra large, I'm not really a double

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order when you use the promo code athletic at liquidiv.com get better hydration today at liquidiv.com promo code athletic all right know, let's talk about pitching for the stretch run. You were putting together some streaming options, kind of looking day by day, trying to figure out who the best possible waiver wire options were as you're looking for that last push in the standings, trying to get Ks, trying to get wins, looking for some two-star pitchers for next week as well. Who really caught your eye as surprisingly available pitchers for next week as well. Who really caught your eye as surprisingly available pitchers? Because I know it's a pretty thin

group of names out there in most leagues at this point since people have been looking at the schedule and chasing anything with any semblance of value over the last few weeks. Yeah, I think what actually caught my eye is how crappy the selection

is. I was all prepared to be like you know quang hung kim gets the pirates and you know he ended up being like second or something in our in our stuff metric and you know i love kim and even though he's been uh you know lucky by strand rate and all this other stuff like i think that's a great matchup but he's like it's 67 percent owned so i guess i guess the secret is out um you know i i looked at even guys that just grabbed my my my eye and i just i want to list them here real quickly for the weekend uh just so there's some names on your board for friday saturday sunday um kikuchi at home against the padresres on Friday. Friday was not a good day.

Logan Webb at Oakland on Saturday. John Means versus Tampa Bay Saturday. And I've got Jorge Lopez versus Tampa Bay on Sunday. Tanner Houck versus New York on Sunday. And Chase Anderson. Nope, that's not Chase Anderson. That's Brett Anderson versus Kansas City on Sunday. These are the only names that grab my attention under 20% owned for the weekend, and by no means am I recommending all of them.

Does the name jump off the page for you? I actually trust Brett Anderson because I think he can be really efficient, get deep enough into the start to get a win. The Royals just don't really have much to play for. Obviously, that series matters for the Brewers. They're still trying to make the postseason, could take second place. The NL Central could miss entirely. Those are very plausible outcomes based on where they sit right now.

And Anderson looked really good last time out against the Cardinals. That was on Tuesday that he pitched. Overall, he could have even came up with a better line. There was a little nubber at the end of the game or end of his start that did a little damage in his final inning that shouldn't have been a hit. It was probably one of those 1% probability hits that led to a run eventually. So I think that matchup really kind of stands out to me as one that I trust. And I know you're not going to get a lot of Ks typically, but the Royals,

they have nothing to lose. They could be more aggressive too in this matchup. Yeah, no, I agree with you. I think Brett Anderson is the best. And I'm glad you brought him up because I want to put him in opposition to Tanner Houck, who had a really good first game and might be appealing, but the Yankees are getting healthy. And Houck in particular, he's got that low arm slot and the change does not really look that good. So basically he's a fastball slider guy from the right side. I think he's going to have some trouble against lefties. Even the scouting report said that his command on the slider can go in and out. And if that's the case, he's going to leave a slider. A lefty is going to see that ball for a long time coming out of that slot. And then if he leaves a slider anywhere close to the middle of the plate or instead of

backfooting it, if it catches the plate, they're going to go yard with it, I think. So it was nice to see Hauk hitting 95, 96, 97. You saw some right-handers be like, I can't see that ball. So he's really going to suppress right-handers. But my comp for Hauk is a slightly harder throwing Randy Dobnak with a slightly worse changeup. So may have more strikeouts, may have more success recently. You've seen some regression on Dobnak, but has some flaws. It's not a terrible comp, but it also reduces your excitement level.

I think if you came away from that debut on cloud nine thinking oh i took a chance on on tanner hawk and now i i got found money well maybe you got 50 cents you found a couple quarters in the couch cushions you didn't find a a dollar i'd be i'd be a little bit i'd be a little bit nervous about starting against the yankees on sunday with that team getting healthy especially they went from a team you could pick on a little bit a couple weeks ago to one that you have to fear again. So I'd be very careful with him. The other guy that you put on your list, who I think is pretty interesting, is Logan Webb. I think you have a compelling case that you could make that Oakland's lineup is not necessarily

one to fear at this point. Yeah, and that was my sort of entry point on web as much as him having above average stuff and around average command in the stuff and command numbers um you know first of all the the a's even with matt chapman um were hitting more fly balls per ground ball than any other team in the history since we've tracked that stat um and they, you know, they're striking out a fair amount. So they become sort of an all or nothing team. And their offensive numbers are maybe worse than people might expect for a team that has played so well. So especially being at Oakland, as the temperatures here are a little bit, you know, getting a little bit lower, kind of getting into fall. And Oakland is one of the coldest parks anyway. I think that I like that one the best

because Means is at home in Baltimore, and though I like him, and Tampa Bay is also striking out 30 plus percent of the time as a team in the last month and has their weaknesses i think i'd like web a little bit over means but those are probably you know web means and anderson are probably my favorite streamers of the weekend because as much as kikuchi is interesting with the added velocity he's bottom shelf command and he's facing the padres which just makes it's kind of hard to recommend somebody against the Padres right now. Yeah, I don't want anything to do with that lineup with a lower-end starter, even with those stuff improvements from Kikuchi factored into the mix.

Some two-start pitchers coming up for next week as you kind of think ahead to weekend waiver pickups or potential stashes if you're in a first-come, first-served league. Interesting list of names that you put together here. Drew Smiley has been really interesting this year in San Francisco. I'm kind of curious what kinds of adjustments have they made with him because he gets Colorado at home. You do have to absorb the Padres at home,

but if I'm going to take a chance against the Padres, I'd much rather do it with them having to go on the road, especially into a very pitcher-friendly place like Oracle Park. Yeah, and one of the risks with Drew Smiley is that they don't seem to push him hard in terms of innings. So if you really need wins, he may not be the

best pickup, but if you could use six or seven innings of decent work, but if you could use like six or seven innings of decent work, like I think that could be, and like the chance at a win, I like it. I mean, mostly I think Smiley just got healthy this year. He's throwing 94, you know, sitting 94 right now this month. He's never done that in his career. And I think it's partially also because they're like, hey, just throw three innings for us. And in terms of movement profiles and stuff like that, the thing that stands out the most is the velocity.

One of the ones I really like, but the 20% threshold kind of screwed me a little bit, but I just want to mention him. Danny Duffy is home against St. Louis and home against Detroit. is home against St. Louis and home against Detroit. I don't think you'll find a better sort of mix of decent pitcher and primo matchups than that. So if Danny Duffy's available, if you want to skip the streamers this weekend, if you can, if you can look ahead to next week's matchup

or next week just in general, or if you're bidding and you have a slightly more money than most people i think duffy could be a decent hammer um you know decent use of your hammer fav hammer and just like make sure you get those two starts i think those are the best two starts on the board um for for next week yeah i like that quite a bit looking at the handful of guys that you listed here that are 5% or less in terms of how rostered they are. Keegan Aiken at 3%.

Has to go on the road twice, so that's probably the one drawback. But kind of a 92-93 mile-an-hour fastball from the left side. I think he's got three good enough pitches to be a starter long-term. At Boston, at Toronto. At Boston, it's not as tough as it has been in the past, so I'm a little more willing to take the chance there. I think he at least makes sense in leagues where you're just not worried about the

ratios anymore, and you're just throwing anything you can out there, hoping to get a win, possibly two and a decent number of Ks. I think Keegan Aiken kind of fits the bill as the low-rostered guy who I like the most, who's probably available in your league for next week.

Yeah, I like that a lot. He has a lot of ride on his fastball in the most recent iteration of stuff. Anyway, we found in the most recent iteration of QOS with Ethan Moore, we found that Keegan Aiken has... that his ride there is actually the most important facet of a fastball. So given that he's got plus ride and then just slightly below league average velocity, I'm willing to give him a good fastball. And if you give him a good fastball,

you're definitely giving him a good changeup. And the slider seems like it's been having good outcomes. I've always had the hardest time, you know, sort of figuring that one out. But it might be good enough. So, you know, give him one good breaking ball, whichever one it is, give him a good changeup and give him a good breaking ball whichever one it is give him a good change up

and give him a good fastball I'm on you on that one the other one that I like I like Austin Gomber the pitcher and he's kind of slated for at Kansas City which I really like but the second one is versus Milwaukee

and I just don't know how stretched out he is, you know, like, he kind of was in the bullpen, and by necessity, he's been pressed into action as a starter, but even in his start, you know, three innings, two and two-thirds, you know, and then there's even a, like a one out outing in there. So, um, I, I kind of think he's a little bit like smiley where it's like, I just don't know if he'll get wins, um, in those, uh, in those opportunities. Yeah. Maybe a little better served in first come first serve leagues. Cause you can just pick the one opportunity against the Royals. If you need it, let them go,

uh, kind of see how that one goes, decide if you want to have them for the second one or not. Hopefully that helps, though. I know everyone's chasing something down the stretch or trying to protect a lead, hopefully, in more cases than not. If you're listening to this show, hopefully we've helped you at least be in a position to possibly win your league with about, what, 11 days left to go in this fantasy baseball season. Hard to believe that it's winding down this quickly. If you're enjoying this show on a platform that allows you to rate and review it,

please take a moment to do that. We really appreciate everybody who's done that. If you haven't done it and you like the show, again, it means a lot to us. If you don't already have a subscription to The Athletic, you can get one for $1 a month at theathletic.com slash ratesandbarrels. That gets you Eno's articles, all of our baseball coverage, all of our fantasy baseball stuff, fantasy football, everything. Premier League started up

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I am at Derek Van Ryper. That's going to wrap things up for this episode of Rates and Barrels. We are back with you on Monday. Thanks for listening..