Rates & Barrels - Escaping to the NL East

Episode Date: June 16, 2020

Rundown0:37 It's Always There When You Don't Want It7:23 Waning Fantasy Interest with 50ish Game Season?16:34 We Should All Like Howie Kendrick More22:45 The Victor Robles Obsession Continues32:47 Buying Austin Voth?37:15 Max Fried & Career-Best Walk Rate41:26 Looking For the Howie Kendrick of 202049:09 It's Not J.D. Davis52:38 Warming Up to Pete Alonso62:03 Andrew McCutchen: Obvious Rebound Candidate64:18 Drafting a Phillies Pitcher at Current ADP69:56 Closing It Out in Miami Follow Eno on Twitter: @enosarrisFollow DVR on Twitter: @DerekVanRipere-mail: [e-mail] Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Welcome to Rates and Barrels, episode 104. It is Tuesday, June 16th. Derek Van Ryper here with Eno Saris on this episode. We move to the NL East as we continue to revisit players on each team that we might have previously overlooked or simply found some new interesting things to talk about in recent weeks. Before we get there, unfortunately, you know, we have to start with some of the uncertainty about the 2020 MLB season. On Monday, the commissioner's office told the Major League Baseball Players Association that it will not move forward and set a schedule unless the union waives its right to claim

that management violated their March agreement. And Monday kind of turned into one of the darkest days I can recall on baseball Twitter. People were kind of expecting that Rob Manfred would come out and announce something in the neighborhood of a 50-game season after the players rejected a proposal over the weekend and concluded their statement that accompanied the rejection with, it's time to get back to work. Tell us when and where. Instead, Manfred came out and said that he couldn't tell us that there would 100% be a 2020 season just five days after saying basically the exact opposite thing during MLB Draft Week. So, here we are.

Things seem terrible. And yet, with fresh eyes today, I don't think they're quite as bad as we all thought yesterday. Even though things are bad, we're not really actually at zero season just yet. No, no. I know I was going to get my fart gun out, but it's one of those things.

It's always there when you don't want it, when you need it. The thing with where we stand now, you know, I think there have actually been some important concessions. You know, I pointed out that players moved further in terms of total outlay. They went from $2.8 billion to $2.2 billion, where the owners went from $1.2 billion to $1.5 billion, basically. But on a percentage basis, someone pointed out that's similar. But it also ignores the fact that players were willing to do an expanded postseason.

I don't know if everyone's familiar with how players are paid in the postseason, but it's a percentage of gate. It's only a percentage of gate, basically, off of the first three games. It has something to do with, if the series goes long, it's good for the owners sort of deal. In case, expanded postseason is a de facto pay cut because it means more time playing when they're not paid. And yes, they do get a bonus,

but they're not paid in the traditional sense of the word. So I think the players have given a little bit more. They've put expanded postseason on the thing. And then obviously this waiver that Manfred came out and said that the owners can't go forward without a waiver. I thought it was a waiver with regard to suing them about COVID. But Ken Rosenthal's most recent reporting is that they want the players to sign away their right to file a grievance, in which case an arbitrator could later decide that baseball owed the players more money. If that's the waiver, I doubt the owners get that without a significant concession.

So if they move to something like 65 games prorated, full prorated, maybe they can get that waiver signed. But the fact is their stance is they want to continue negotiating. Whether or not you believe that is a real stance or it's just a way to keep the ball rolling until a 50-game season seems like an okay outcome.

I mean, that was one thing that came up. I had a few conversations with the players yesterday, and one thing that came up was with, okay, so are they going to announce a 52 game season tomorrow no because that would be so obvious right because if you do the math and think about and trevor bauer had a threat about this but if you yeah if you start to look at when the season would start and when it would end with a 50 or 52 game season you can't start it right now it It would end earlier than usual and it would prove the Players Association's point that the league didn't max out the number of games possible in

what was left time-wise for this season. Right, so it's possible that this whole deal about the waiver or whatever is just more stalling until they can say, okay, fine. Well, there's only room in the schedule for 50 games, so let's get going. And 50 games, that would be an unfortunate outcome, I think, for fantasy players. For just fans, I guess it would be a little bit,

and a little bit is better than nothing. So I don't necessarily think that the most likely outcome is zero games this season. So I guess that's a source of optimism. Maybe I'm agreeing with you on that. But the 50 game season has its own problems because I did a piece on legitimacy of a season based on how many games were in it or how much you know about how good a team is based on how many games they've played and there's a large gap between 50 and 70 in fact by the time you get to 70 games you know as much about the future quality of a team as you can probably know so it's interesting because you can learn a lot about the quality of a team in that sample but you could still have pretty odd things happening with records and stats in that window.

Despite that, right? I mean, we can effectively measure how good a team is and look at something like a Pythagorean record against an actual record, and sometimes you have these pretty significant outliers. Yeah, yeah. And sometimes it's just the way that a season goes, because, you know, we're accustomed to it being such a long season. There are times when there's a rabbit who gets out to a 20 game lead and starts resting players.

You know, that definitely happens in the last couple weeks of September, where you could have a juggernaut basically go 500 or less, just because they're playing all their AAA guys and resting all their stars. So there's definitely weird things that happen on the edges. But I think that 70 stood out as a significant increase in information over 50. And in the fantasy section, in the fantasy side of the world, I think that there has been a line drawn in the sand around 50.

We all got an email. Anybody that was involved in the NFPC got an email last week that basically said that if it was going to be a 50-game season, they may just pull the plug on the fantasy season when it comes to NFPC.

If it's more, then maybe they'll actually have it. So they're still debating what they're going to do, but I think that's a significant bellwether for me because basically what the owners want is as much postseason and as little regular season as they can get. The problem is the smaller the regular season gets, the less people believe in the postseason and want to watch it. The less people think it's a significant season.

And so, therefore, the NFBC drawing the line at 50-50 may not matter in terms of brass taxes. You know, NFBC contributes this much to our bottom line for baseball ownership. But it may be a sort of test of the significance of a 50 game season. And maybe someone somewhere is reading about how, you know, 50 games is not really a season. Yeah. I,

I think we've talked about this from a, how much would you play compared to your normal entry fees with a season that's that much shorter than a normal season? And I came down, I think it was 25% is where I put the difference. And I'd be higher. Maybe it's because of our separate perceptions of how much luck there is in a regular season.

But I, to me, entries are kind of sunk costs i'm not going to try and claw back anything i guess the question is also how much would you be willing to give to a new league going forward right that's yeah it'd be it'd be more like that like i i'd not signed up for NFBC leagues other than draft and hold stuff when things stopped. Whereas back in March, I was thinking, yeah, you know what? I probably will put together the money and go back into the main event. Now there's zero chance that I'm doing that. I'm not going that high. Will I play something like the online championship at 350?

Yes. I think that's more in line with what that's i would top out at doing that's what i have on the table right now yeah i did an online you did one back in end of february early march so and i'm not like 350 i'm not like uh gonna bang down the doors like i'd rather just throw that in the pot and see what happens in a 50 game season. You know, um, a lot of the guys that I drafted that were hurt,

uh, suddenly look a lot better. Um, any case, uh, I, I, I,

like I've, I've still hoping for like a 65 game season, um, that basically the players agree to sign the waiver for more games and i think that's partially what manfred was trying to say is that they wanted to continue to negotiate so maybe somebody's offer will get better has to right i mean they can't really not have a season if it doesn't happen because of the pandemic and second wave of covid okay i mean like that's in the range of outcomes that i feel like we as people can understand and accept but if it doesn't happen because they can't work it out

that is going to cause so much more damage to the game in the short term, especially long term. I don't know. I've gone back and forth on this. I think the thing that I think is different compared to the last time there was a work stoppage in baseball. I mean, there's a lot more you can do with your time in 19 now compared to 1994. There are plenty of other entertainment options, the way that winter sports are playing.

It's a very different environment. And even on the sport level, soccer is rising. There are even more sports to watch now in terms of American League sports. in terms of American League sports. And there is, though, there was a definite effect. You can see it in who calls baseball their favorite sport. There was a graph from 538. There's definitely a spike down in 1994.

So there are definite short-term things. But the long-term trend is clear on baseball that it's falling behind and that soccer is about to pass it. Um, so I don't know how much urgency that puts in their game. And then the last thing to say about it is, uh, you know, there's a lot of people saying that the players haven't given anything, uh, the, the, the pro-rata they have, they haven't stepped off a pro-rated, uh, salaries. And I can understand that line of thinking. However, it suggests to me that the person who says that thinks that the only thing that players have to give in this situation is to give up on prorated.

And I would suggest that if you think that, you should think about what that means. Because players have very little leverage when it comes to conversations, when it comes to a new labor agreement. There's going to be a new labor agreement next year. So the only things that they have, basically, that are major leverage that could do anything to, say, double the minimum salary or lessen the fewer years of arbitration. or fewer years of arbitration. Those big asks that they want, the only big gives they have are salary cap, pension,

and in this particular case, prorated salaries. Those are the only gives they have. So if you're saying the players haven't given anything, and then you're saying this is the only thing they have to give, isn't there a little bit of a paradox or a contradiction, or at least you're not seeing the forest for the trees sort of situation here?

You're like, the players haven't given anything. They only have one thing to give. Hmm. They haven't given the only They only have one thing to give. Hmm. They haven't given the only thing they have to give? Right. It's just kind of an absurd argument. Do you really blame them? I don't know how people do.

I really don't. I think it's a failure to understand the incredible wealth of people who own major league teams and to be bothered and outraged by that that's where your anger should be that's where your frustration should be those are the people who are keeping this from getting done right now this the stuff that they do the bam bam real estate you know the the secondary stuff that they do that is not included in what the Chicago Cubs make, all the secondary stuff that they're doing is enough to float them.

Some teams will lose $5 million this year if they just started playing now. Not exactly now, but if they did an 80-game prorated season, which they still can manage, if they did that, some teams would lose, I think in a real level, after the real estate and all that other stuff, would really lose maybe $5 to $10 million. And we're talking about billionaires owning these entities. And there's losses everywhere. So why are we talking about those five to ten million dollar in losses um when like the typical player is is is choosing between an offer where they can make 350 000 or they can make 380 000

yeah it's crazy right the best summary of this whole situation i think came from an agent joel wolf i saw this tweet going around on Monday. The Marlins played without fans for 15 years, yet still managed to give a player the biggest contract in sports history, John Carlos Stanton, and then sold the team for a billion-dollar profit with five competing buyers. I mean, the Marlins and the Royals have each sold recently at a billion dollars or more. Oh, yeah.

There's the equity question, too. Yeah. Lose $5 million this year and still sell it for $2 billion in two years. Right. So, yeah. Your $5 million loss on an asset worth north of a billion, sorry, I'm not buying that. I'm not buying that. I'm not feeling sorry for you at all, ever.

So that's the state of things. Summary, I don't think it's quite as bleak right now as it seemed on Monday night. And yes, the 2021 CBA, which is going to be horrible anyway, from a negotiating standpoint, that looks even worse. But I think, pandemic permitting, I think we still do get a season in 2020. Let's move on to our NL East series. Let's start with the defending World Series champions, because it was fun watching baseball last fall. Howie Kendrick.

Let's talk about Howie Kendrick for a minute because he is a stat cast darling, but he's old, so he's cheap. And all it comes down to now is playing time. And as I think about what a shortened season would look like, the players who I might be worried about physically breaking down over 162, I think they're less of an injury risk in 50 or 55 or 60. So I'm very curious to get your thoughts on Howie Kendrick from a couple different perspectives. Does his age just erase the fact that he does everything we want players to do with batted ball types? At least he did a year ago.

thing we want players to do with with batted ball types at least he did a year ago you know uh just looking at uh how much and i'm stealing this from you i know it's yours on the rundown but uh just looking at how much the bat x which is derrick cardi's uh stack cast based projections love him in terms of projecting him for a 195 ISO. That's 20 points clear of anybody else. And that suggests that he kind of earned most of what he got on the field last year in terms of his batted balls. And I can believe it. Better mechanics plus plus rabbit ball.

You know, it's something I can believe in, in terms of late career power surge. But it occurs to me that one thing that we stopped doing, because we're not sure that this will happen, but if there is a universal DH, I think the first time we kind of went through it we kind of said that like somebody like ryan zimmerman um might uh benefit but in fact like looking at this uh depth chart as i see it right now um i could see howie kendrick kind of eloping with a full-time job if there's a dh i love that um i mean because thames and zimmerman platoon at first starling castro at second key boom or as drubal cabrera at third the others you're kind of your backup infielder trey turner's everyday shortstop your outfield's pretty locked in with soto robles and eaton and taylor is fourth and taylor's your clear and taylor's not and taylor's more of a defensive boon.

So you're not itching to put Taylor in the lineup. Yeah. So I would agree that the universal DH, which I keep assuming it's going to happen, but we don't know for sure. That'd be the last thing. Yeah, you'd be predicated on them reshuffling the divisions for less travel um you know which you'd think would be important that's another thing man these guys

you know other people are saying oh man the you know everybody's taking a pay cut the players should too hey does your job force you to get go to the, to contact with other people, use the same showers, and then get into a metal tube with them? No, my job is not asking me to do any of those things. So I guess I'm okay with my pay cut. Yeah, our jobs have not even, they've done nothing like that at all. They've done the exact opposite. So yes, there's a major difference. And everybody out there, I mean, a lot of people out there are probably in similar boats to the one we're in where offices are very slowly opening up i know there are exceptions out there and there are some people who have to make that difficult choice to

go back and take on that health risk and that's it's a horrible position to be in like i feel terrible for anybody who's in the context of a in the context of a full year, they're going to make 30% of their salary, so come on. Yeah. Enough of that nonsense. All right, so we're in on Howie Kendrick, especially as a guy who, jeez, man, he's barely a top 300 guy in ADP. That's absurd how cheap he is.

I think I'd love to have him on my bench. Yeah, mixed league bench guy. Like 12-team mixer even? It gets a little tough. Let's see where he's eligible. First and second to start the year. If you have a 10-team league, 10 games,

then third base. That's kind of nice to get that extra boost too, yeah. I didn't know he played 15 games at third base last year. He had 99 innings at third base last year. I didn't realize that either. Every league I play in is at least 15. I think Tout Wars is the only one that goes down to 15. Most of them are 20.

Well, he was 15 games at third, 10 started. So there's probably some leagues where he's third base. But in any case, first and second is decent actually, man. That's CIMI. And we've talked about being able to toggle a guy between CIMI. So you got a guy on your bench that can be CIMI? Yeah. I think he's actually 12-team viable with universal DH.

Without it, I don't think he can quite make that cut every week, but there'd be some weeks where you would play him because someone's schedule's good. But weekly is just just gonna be such a mess this year man at least i think the schedule i'm making an assumption i probably shouldn't make but i'll make it anyway i keep thinking that the reconfigured schedule for this season like if it is 10 team divisions you've got nine teams in division you play everybody home and away for a three-game series, it's 54 games. That's one way this could all work. Six games per week for every team over each week.

Simple schedules, right? This team has seven games and this team has five. That's one of the things I hate about weekly leagues is the imbalanced schedule. Yeah. I think with a 54-game schedule, you said, was that you that said that like 54 games is basically everyone gets home and away with everybody in their division?

Yeah. Yeah, I think that's just too logical. Which probably sets up for a fairly easy schedule to put together. Yeah. I mean, you could probably do that in Excel in less than an hour.

Yeah. So let's go from an old player with the Nats to a young player who I've talked about a lot, who probably, I don't know, there's probably some sort of surveillance on me because I've pulled up his pages so often, Victor Robles. And I've been wondering if young players, any player though, And I've been wondering if young players, any player though, but young players in particular can sort of get to their power potential in a backward sort of way where they don't hit the ball hard all the time right away, but they hit the ball at the optimal or and average launch angle you can look at things like that and kind of get an idea like okay there's there's good max ev there's a good launch angle here if he just hits the ball hard with more consistency he'll unlock that power later is that a is that a path that a player can actually take to becoming a 20 or 25 or even a 30 home run guy in the long run. So with Victor Robles, I wrote about him

and put together a presentation for PitchCon. It's a lot of blue ink for how he hits the ball right now, but he's such a young player, it seems pretty risky to assume that he's just what we've seen in the last year and change and nothing more. Yeah, and he reminds me actually a little of this conversation about fernando tatis where you've got some evidence that he's doing the right things and then a little bit of evidence of him doing the wrong things you have to kind of

choose which is more important right um and so if you look at his max av like 110 111 110.5 it's it's it's decent i mean um you know if you wanted to put him in a comp with um someone like a jeff mcneil or a lighter hitting guy um you'd be wrong because he's three four more miles of max exit velocity than jeff mcneil he's more than all the veterans he had a higher exit max exit velocity last year than mookie betts yeah and nolan arenado and max muncie like guys that hit the ball hard and hit a lot of home runs so uh and then there's more evidence than that because that's just like one ball evidence but it's still really important it's about the most important one ball evidence you can have other than sort of max pitch velocity. But then the other thing that was really cool was Jeff Zimmerman put together hard hit angle as a concept.

And it is I've actually had a conversation with a team analyst. It's really hard to get anything out of them. Most of the time they just don't respond at a key moment and you know you've got something. The silence tells you something. But I was trying to get batted ball comps for somebody coming over from the KBO. coming over from the KBO. And so I was talking to a source about... Who is a high profile?

Oh, Tsutsugo, coming over from the MPB. Yoshitomo Tsutsugo, right? Yeah. And we're talking about his bad... Yeah, I was asking, what kind of exit velocity numbers do you have? And he's like, well, we have a proprietary number can't can't just tell you what his average ev is i don't know i've got this proprietary number and so we're like kind of talking back and forth and i was like

oh so basically it's like when he hits the ball hard like what are the angles he hits it in what are the what are his hard hit angles like and he's like yeah you could say that you know you didn't give me everything but you kind of put me i was on yeah you could say that you know he didn't give me everything but he kind of put me i was on the right track and then you know talking to andrew perpetua who's worked for teams before uh or for the mets before um he's always sort of pointed out that there's a kind of a parabola where hitters uh kind of focus their hard hit balls and those can be fairly different they can kind of they can vary um and so Zimmerman kind of uh finally put that into a number and he's basically takes their hardest hit balls and takes the average launch angle of those hardest hit balls

and um it's like a little bit of a like a backwards thing than barrel you know it's like kind of barrel-esque. But it's not asking how often do they hit barrels. It's when they hit the ball hard, where do they hit it? And so for that one, Victor Robles has a 15.5-degree launch angle on his hardest-hit balls. And here are his comps that are just around him with respect to that. He's right there with Will Myers, Josh Harrison, Ozzy Albies, Jeff McNeil again. But also above Keston Hura, Ronald Acuna Jr., Clint Frazier, Mookie Betts, Kyle Schwarber.

So he has a good launch angle. a 15.5 degree launch angle, 15.5 degree launch angle on his hardest hit balls. His hardest hit ball is a 111. And that takes him out of being a comp with Jeff McNeil. And in fact, his best comp is Ozzie Albies. It makes sense to me, just from a common sense standpoint, of guys that got to the big leagues really young,

who are still physically growing, who have outstanding tools and are just kind of putting the finishing touches on them as they begin their big league careers. That just fits. Those two guys can be similar in that way and yeah i guess without having the ability to process data the way someone that jeff zimmerman does i was trying to find some other simple indicator not even an, but just a flag like, hey, wait, look at this guy more closely.

Because this thing, this tendency, when leaderboards are sorted by barrels, or when you sort them by just average exit velocity overall, or when player pages use average exit velocity and you see blue ink all over them, that shapes your perception of a player. Even if

you understand more about those numbers and how valuable or how not valuable they really are than most people, I still think psychologically something's happening there when you're looking at those pages and seeing that. It's casting a player in a negative light. And the market, the ADPs, the auction values will start to kind of homogenize around players that have a lot of red ink and players that have a lot of blue ink. And Robles, because he steals bases, of course, gets some lift anyway, despite his flaws, but he became a polarizing player. And again, I'm just obsessed with him because I think looking at him and what he's done so far and saying he can't hit just seems

very foolish to me I I think that would be drawing a conclusion that has so many ways to be proven wrong in the very near future yeah yeah I mean just look at the Bad X again. It's funny. The Bad X has the highest ISO for any projection system for Robles. So the StatCast data is not negative on Robles. Yes, there's a low average exit velocity, but that's related to bunts and these mishit balls. And we've talked about how that's not always the best measure for a player because distributions can be important. This is exactly why distributions are important, Victor Robles.

I would say if we wanted to say something that was testable, I would say that a full season pace for homers for him would be over 20 this year. There's a clear demarcation between projection systems there and between value like if if a guy can't manage 20 home runs in these days he's more of a empty steals only guy but if you can manage 20 homers with 30 stolen bases that's a well-rounded guy i think way back in the fall at the end of last season we talked about some players who might be able to move up to much more prominent spots in the order i know brit garoli covers the nationals for the athletic had a tweet maybe even a story back in march about the nats tinkering with robles top of the order they kind of moved away from that quickly but there's one great hitter missing from

that lineup this season anthony rendon's gone i think it's easier this year for Robles to move up and stay up in the order than it was a year ago. Experience also helps, of course, but just not having Rendon there, if one guy goes missing, you start looking around, like who in this lineup, who among the players on this depth chart has the best chance of actually becoming a top of the order

or heart of the order hitter. If you're looking at Robles versus the famed Z platoon the catchers like gomes and suzuki starling castro will be kind of just a solid accumulator probably already in the middle third carter key boom like i think robles is a better prospect than key boom so i like better hitter yeah i just i like robles better than the three or four alternatives to move up if something happens to Eaton or Turner or somebody else or Soto. If one of those guys gets hurt, I think Robles is most likely to take on a more prominent role. Yeah, I think the people in between him and a top four, top five type spot in the batting order

are Howie Kendrick and Adam Eaton, both oft-injured veterans that could also fall off production-wise because of their age. So it's really not that hard of a bet. We're Robles fans. Yes, and I hope this is the last time I talk about them until games are played, but i can't promise anything to anyone ever i just can't do it let's uh one uh let's uh do a spotlight on depth uh even the last

uh proposal i saw said 29 man roster so we're gonna have a little bit more depth than usual um going into the season and for me the best benefit other than Kendrick at DH would be Austin Voth making the roster. We've had a couple Austin Voth fans on the roster at the Athletic. It's not that he has amazing stuff he has basically league average stuff numbers it's that he has really good command and numbers that line up with someone like Luke Weaver and he does so on the back of

two legitimate secondary pitches and a fastball that doesn't go very fast, that has a good movement profile. So I like Austin Voth. And I think he could take Joe Ross's job, especially if they're both on the roster for a little bit. And I think it could take like two turns to the rotation, even if Ross starts out as the number five. Then both of those guys, Voth and Ross, in 12oss in 12 team mixers pretty much going undrafted 15s you're talking about one of your last picks if you are going to take i would take voth and a 12 teamer as my final pitcher and i would take him over ross really you take him at 12 and over ross that's interesting yeah uh i had both i guess 122 in my last ranks um no that can't be my last one let me see what i

i had him 114 um okay so 12 teams pushing it i think i might push him up to uh about 100 i guess you could choose between someone like Michael Fulmer, Kyle Wright, and Austin Voth as your final pitcher. Yeah. That probably makes sense. And Fulmer, definitely one of those guys who was nowhere on my radar in February and March. At least he's a consideration now with more time to make his way back from injury. The other random name, I don't have to go in detail here,

injury. The other random name, I don't have to go in detail here because I know that our buddy Nano Dufino absolutely loves this guy. It's based on looking at the outfield depth chart for the Nats and not seeing a lot of names there. They have this outfielder, Yadiel Hernandez, who's just been in their minor league system. And I don't think he's really like a prospect at all or anything. I just think he's one of those players that is completely... Because he's 32? Right, yeah, he's old, but like... But he could be kind of like a Gurriel type in Houston where he just comes in and plays

because they don't need to protect his numbers or his service time, you know? Yeah, I mean, he hit 33 homers in the International League last year with good plate skills. And again, he's old. And even his projections for league average bat, he might make it as an extra player depending on how large the rosters are. Full credit to Nando, though, on Yadiel Hernandez. I was nowhere near him until he brought him up.

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Let's move on to the Braves. I've had some interesting conversations with Nick Pollock probably in the last couple of weeks, once during PitchCon and once on the Athletic Fantasy Baseball podcast. And he's kind of come forward as a Max Freed skeptic. And I think for me, what it comes down to is the career best walk rate last season, 6.7%, 2.55 walks per nine, if you prefer that. It's the lowest he's ever had at any level. per nine if you prefer that it's the lowest he's ever had at any level and this is a guy that has weapons he's definitely got interesting stuff do you think that leap forward we saw with control is actually where we can kind of set the baseline for walks with freed going forward no i don't and that's actually the base of my skepticism for the pitcher as well. He has the same command plus as Lucas Giolito, who I've said should have a walk rate above 3.5 or so, at least, if not higher.

The projections for free do capture that, kind of averaging out at sort of a 3.2 type walk rate, kind of averaging out at sort of a 3-2 type walk rate, but you just look up and down at just his walk rates in the minor leagues, and they started with a 4 or a 5 more often than they started with a 3. So that's the part. And yes, I do think that he can maybe command the slider that he added in the late in the season a little bit better than some of his other pitches but that still means that he is slightly below average command on

his fastball and his curveball so at price I am assuming that you are just letting somebody else draft him because there's somebody in every room who likes Max Fried. Again, there are reasons to like him, but if you're talking about someone who goes in that 125 to 150 range, ADP since May 1st, sitting around 140, there's so many other

ways you can go with that pick. Give me like Urias. What's his? Yeah. Is he still in that range he's still cheaper than lazardo uh urius is yeah 130 yeah so you'd be looking at those two guys around the same time 139 so same round all right so let's say urius is gone uh we could play some Would You Rather. I've got Max Freed, Round, Erquity, Chirinos, McCullers, Lynn. Those guys all go later.

Except for maybe Lynn goes a little earlier, but everybody else you just mentioned goes later. I have them near each other, but I wouldn't necessarily say they're of a different tier. So if on my board I saw Freed, you know, Chirinos, Irquity, McCullers, and like Weaver or something,

I would feel like there's plenty of pitching left on the board. That's often the question I have. Like I want to take bats, and then I look at the available pitchers, and I say, do I feel comfortable with how much pitching is left in, yes, a tier or in this group? And if I saw all those guys available, I would not feel the need to jump at max freed right and so for hitters i mean you're looking at if you're looking for some speed maybe elvis

andrews there's a chance that cory seager's still there in that range jorge polanco uh max kepler goes in that range there's a lot of need needtype bat picks, right? Kind of need 20 steals and a middle infielder. Yeah. There's a lot of speed guys there. If you want just a stable veteran, Justin Turner goes a little later than that. You could go there if you needed to.

I just think there's enough other interesting players in that same range. I kind of miss him simply because of that. Let's go young and old with this team as well. I was kind of looking around. After looking closely again at what Howie Kendrick did last year, I started to say, who could be the next Howie Kendrick?

The old kind of boring veteran who does a lot of things well and maybe just needs a little increase in playing time and i landed on nick marcakis um 29th in max exit velocity last season 30th and average exit velocity last season 128th in sweet spot percentage he's had a double digit walk percentage in five straight years under 15 k rate he's kind of also on that list of players who could win with the universal DH. I mean, if it's not Austin Riley, Johan Camargo having two spots

instead of one to share, Markekis playing a little bit more is definitely in the range of outcomes. But Fregata hits the ball as hard as he does. Why is he not getting better results? I've got an answer for you because and I can do it in the shape of our new tool.

Our new fun new tool. Hard hit launch angle. Yes. Nick Markakis' hard hit launch angle is 5.1 and his max exit velocity is 115 which is pretty good. But if you want to put him in a comp box, the best comps are Josh Naylor and Eric Hosmer.

Oh. So congratulations. You found another Eric Hosmer. Well, that's... Well, okay. So again... That's not bad. I mean, for price.

For price. If he's playing. Right. Hosmer's an accumulator. He gets the time. Marquez doesn't have that locked in. But this is a little bit of the opposite of the Robles thing, where you look at the player page and you're like,

wow, there's red ink everywhere. XBA is good. K percentage is good. Exit velocity, hard hit, XBO, but all good. All red. But there's a flaw. Like he's not doing damage when he hits the ball hard because it's just not there. The launch angle's not there with the hard contact.

Could that change, I think, is probably the next logical question. You get to that age, sure, it's kind of hard to expect it. But Howie Kendrick, I kind of wonder if you look year by year, he wasn't always hitting the ball the way he was last year. So I don't know, maybe in a Lloyd Christmas sort of way, I'm saying, despite the Eric Hosmer similarities, maybe, just maybe, there is a chance. I'll give you NL only. Okay. Well, hey, you know what? That's the type of league where I had Kendrick last year,

and it pays off in a huge way. Yeah, it was huge for you. Yeah, I guess I didn't show up today saying, let's bring the fart gun out and draft Nick Markakis in 12-team mixers. That's not where I was going. It was kind of like, hey, we weren't really excited about how he Kendricked this time last year, and look what he did. And Nick Markakis does a few things kind of similar, and who knows?

Maybe he could actually put it together. Yeah, I wonder. Adam Duvall is a big person in his way, and Adam Duvall has the gaudy home run totals in a couple years, but like 292 OBP for his career and 6% worse than league average with a stick run totals in a couple years but like 292 obp for his career and a you know six percent less worse than league average with a stick does not mean that you necessarily are rushing to get them in there um so somewhere between duvall marquez yonder alonzo they're probably going to get a dh

yikes they maybe weren't as prepared the other one we were talking about was riley i i mean i really think that's what they want is just to have Riley playing a lot more and maybe he plays some defense and they rotate different people into that spot. Occasionally Marcelo Zuna does it and Riley plays left field but ultimately Riley's

playing time floor he probably gets the bump first and whether or not he can adjust from last year that determines whether or not he can adjust. Even if last year that determines whether he keeps that role. Yeah. I think Marquez and Duval and yonder are basically the bench guys. If you're going to build a starting lineup for most days,

they might be fairly used fairly often used, but I don't see other than maybe NCciarte, maybe be in a platoon. So on days that Enciarte is against lefties, Acuna plays center, and you get Duvall in the outfield. Yeah, or Charlie Culbertson, I guess. That could be the other deep bench option but dancy swanson part two i i just don't see a lot of value in the the depths of their position player groups um i do do you think their their pitching depth continues to be interesting. Someone's going to pop. My picks are

Kyle Wright or Bryce Wilson. I have a hard time picking between the two, but Kyle Wright's stuff is a little bit ahead. Bryce Wilson's command is a little bit ahead. I think I'm picking Kyle Wright. I just threw draft and hold darts and reserve darts at both of those guys.

I'm just hoping that I have the right one where I need them because I think there's still plenty to like with both. The other kind of random thing too, I mean, Sean Newcomb, I still think he's a reliever in the long run, but I don't want to write him off just yet either. It doesn't cost much to find out if he's unlocked something his adp since may 1st outside the top 500 yeah i mean the darts you throw are darts you can't throw on other people so you can't can't collect too many

that you you have to you have to make some. I have Newcomb all the way down at 150. I could see pushing him some, but I have Voth like 40 points ahead of him. 40 ranks ahead of him. All right. Well, hey, I think that's another endorsement for Austin Voth. Oops, I didn't mean to do that. But I have Wright near Voth.

That's what I said earlier. Yeah, there's just like a... I firmly believe that there's a basic level of command that you need to have to be a starter. I mean, if you think about it, just think about the wildest relievers you can think of and then think about the wildest starters you can think of. Think of it like Tyler Chatwood.

He was so wild he could not be a starter. It's a pain. He was having a nice spring, though. I don't know if it means a whole lot, but it was at least a step back in the right direction for him. Let's move on to the Mets. I have had a lot of time to reflect on this. Step right up and greet the Mets.

Yeah. Yeah. I love Mr. Met, even though I don't have a lot of things I love about that franchise. But Mr. Met's big, dumb, smiling baseball hat is just... It's great. You know how when you see a golden retriever and they always look happy, it makes you happy? At least it makes me happy.

Mr. Met is like the mascot equivalent of a golden retriever. I see it. There's the whole Mrs. Met backstory and stuff. I mean, it's just great. A power couple on the level of Pac-Man and Miss Pac-Man. This team has an obvious winner if there's a DH.

Is it Robinson Cano? At this point? J.D. Davis, really. No, it's Dominic Smith. Is it Dom Smith? It's Dom Smith because J.D. Davis is in the starting lineup somewhere. The Mets have too much talent.

What world is this? It's a weird kind of – it's like an ill-fitting too much talent. It's like they've got four or five good outfielders, but nobody you'd really want to stick in center other than their backup really light on a stick, just implicated in a cheating scandal backup righty outfielder. Oh, yeah. Jake Marisnyk. Yeah, Jake Marisnyk.

I've been running this team in my sim, and we're always near 500, and it's because of pitching debt there you know steven gonzalez uh in my sim has like a 190 era and a ton of innings um and is great as a kind of glue man so i don't know that that turns into like a recommendation uh in any sort of format but i'm definitely gonna be watching what steven gonzalez does this year because a back end of porcello matt's waka is a problem yeah it's it's not great they're gonna have to out hit their pitching a lot of times and maybe they can i mean that's totally possible with the way they're built because for for some of the defensive concerns they have and the pitching concerns they have top to bottom it's one of the best lineups in the national league if everybody is healthy it is it's

a good lineup cano you know you can slag on him all you want and yeah he was hurt and yeah he's 37 but like you know he was still pretty close to league average and could be again and for a second baseman that's no small feat and i think some of the the injury risk in a short season goes away like we talked about earlier with howie kendrick i think that would also apply to robinson cano and they go at similar prices too i mean i i think there are still a lot of interesting skills there i would say that the previous jeff zimmerman study that you mentioned on injury and age um does not broadly like work in the favor of robinson cano he's 37 and he's had a lot of soft tissue injuries but at that price getting a guy who's top 50 and

average exit velocity top 100 and max exit velocity and he's going to hit what third fourth in the lineup and play at least 80 of the time maybe even 90 of the time yeah his hard hit angle is pretty low um which i think you can guess from not having the big power output but like he's still hanging in there with uh around yandy diaz with slightly less uh exit velocity trey turner uh he's still hanging in there around Yandy Diaz with slightly less exit velocity. Trey Turner, he's a pretty good comp with Trey Turner. Not far from Willie Calhoun. So, I don't know.

I mean, he can still hit the ball. I think I'd give him sort of 15 to 18 homers in a full season and a good batting average. But he's like maybe the worst hitter in this lineup now he could be yeah um which is more praise for the other guys in it than a shot at keno directly and uh pete alonso i think we talked about him a while back and i still don't have him on any teams at all. Keeper leagues, dynasty leagues, redraft leagues. I have zero Pete Alonso on my fantasy baseball rosters.

ADP from May 1st on, sitting right there at 31. So if you're in a 12-team league, it's like mid-round three. If you're in a 15-teamer, he's going at the round two, round three turn. I might be wrong about him. I might just be expecting too much of a crash. I might be seeing too much Reese Hoskins. I mean, the 139 WRC plus at AAA in 2018 was the worst WRC plus he's ever had at any level.

He's just torn up every level of professional baseball he's played at. So is there a strong case against Pete Alonso that should keep me from changing my mind? Because I think I just thought the price was too high, he doesn't run, and maybe there was too much batting average downside for a guy who goes that high. And I might be wrong. Yeah, I mean, I think mostly, like like I was just looking at his hard hit comps and basically the perfect comp for him is Jordan Alvarez. But there is the question of contact.

I think that's the only question. And, you know, a 12% swinging strike rate with, you know, I guess slightly worse than average reach rates. He probably has a contact problem, but there is that lower minor stuff that we've talked about before. It's like 17-18% strikeout rate. The projections look at his AAA strikeout rate i mean there the projections look at his triple a strikeout rate being 25.9 and his major league one being 26.4 and basically say that's him that's who he is but if there's any give

on that strikeout rate there is more to peter alonzo and maybe there's i mean there's a two year difference in age nearly between peteronso and Keston Hira. But if I'm going to look at Keston Hira and say, yeah, what he did in his debut, strikeout rise, probably isn't who he is as a player. I probably need to afford that same application to Alonso. Triple-A, K-rate spike, same as Hira. There's still reason to believe he could get a little bit better. He hasn't been in the big leagues long enough where he could just say, this is it, this is who he is.

And even if that is who he is, a 50 homer guy in a full season, drives in a ton of runs, it's a great player. I think I just got too hung up on a couple little things he didn't do as opposed to being totally on board with just how good of a power hitter he actually is. Yeah, and I think that some of what I've

heard out of you in terms of Alonzo has been just like sort of snake draft analysis where he ends up being picked in the second round and the type of player he is where he's kind of picked in the second round. And the type of player he is, where he's kind of one-note-ish, in the second round, there are other guys.

Just hypothetically, I'd probably take Alonzo over Starling Marte, but just think about the type of player Starling Marte represents in the second round versus the type of player Pete Alonso represents. I could see being like, I want a little bit more of a well-rounded skill set out of my second pick. It probably matters a little bit less though. So if you were drafting in the first three spots, you know, if you're choosing one of Yelich or Acuna, who you expect to get a good number of stolen bases from, then you can pair Alonso with either of them. But if you went with Trout with one of those picks, going with Alonso might not make as much sense because your first pick's not getting you much for steals

and you don't want to keep pushing yourself further behind. And also think about, like, Alonso ends up going early in the second. So think about pairing him with a pitcher where, let's say you go Max Scherzer and Pete Alonzo. Great, but you have no positional value. You have no steals. And so you've created a need for yourself already in the second round. So here's a thought.

You don't even have a good batting average. You're kind of going to be chasing those other things and those other things are the things that everybody wants batting average and stolen bases are scarce right now so you just put yourself in a position where you have to chase the thing that everybody wants let's try to think of it this way if you were let's say you had the first pick so you've got a lot of control over the situation. If you had Acuna with the first pick, would you rather go Acuna and then Alonso, or would you rather start with Trout

and then come back with Mondesi? Acuna and Alonso. Okay. Any particular reason with the players involved? Is it Mondesi's shoulder or some of the things in his profile or something that you like about it on the other side? It's Alonso. It's Mondesi, mostly. Okay. I mean, because that's the

sort of, I don't know, high risk, high reward. I don't know that I'd pick Acuna over Trout, but if I started with Acuna, I would rather... I think I'd rather that pairing. Okay. Alright. I think that's pretty interesting. I think I'd rather that pairing. Okay. All right. I think that's pretty interesting. I think for me, I'd rather have Acuna and Alonso.

I do think it's a little bit safer, which is weird. It's because of the risk that Mondesi brings, not because of the lack of security from Trout. I think Trout's floor is pretty obvious at this point. Okay. So in Bay Area Roto Fantasy, BARF, the team I took over from Laura Michaels, it's not a keeper league, but it was a spot in the league that I took over. I went Trout, Devers

Alvarez Did you punt steals? Or did you just feel like you could get them later? I forget what your plan was in that one I got a bunch of 20 guys later For steals I have Elvis Andrews Lorenzo Cain

Oscar Mercado, and Trent Grisham and Kevin Kiermaier on the bench. Okay. So I just figured let me get like 520 guys and cycle them through when they're in good matchups and stuff. I mean, I'm going to dominate. This is an OBP league too, so it's like my first three guys might have like a 380 obp combined that would be a nice foundation be a really nice foundation we'll see we'll see if

it works yeah you're i mean you're definitely right to ask about steals but man what about a 50 game season when steals like who's gonna lead the league somebody with like 10 steals i don't know are teams that that are kind of in that middle of the pack gonna be more aggressive because why not like just take take your chances try to try to maximize those opportunities even if there is some downside that comes with it i mean like if you if you think about how much teams obviously care about money and think about the postseason and the revenue generated from getting there maybe that opens things up a little bit as far as a few teams on the fringes being a lot more aggressive yeah i hope we see some fun weirdness uh because it will you know every game will matter

more and like out of that piece where i was talking about the 50-game seasons, the Giants made the postseason like five times out of 20. I was like, what? I do think... I can't imagine a season where the Giants make the postseason this year. I don't think they... Anything's possible, though, in that shortened game. The Sims tell...

It's true. It's just... Even knowing that... Remember how the Mariners started last year? Yeah. We talked about them in one of the first episodes of the show. We're like, hey, what did we miss with the Mariners? And it turns out, nothing.

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Alright, two teams to go. So let's get to the Phillies. I really like Andrew McCutcheon this year. He doesn't do anything really at his peak level anymore, but he still does so many things very well. That extra time for his knee to heal can only really be a good thing. The stolen bases probably don't come back beyond a handful, but the play discipline and the contact quality are still very good and i really i can't believe this but he's outside the top 200 in the handful of drafts that we've seen since may 1st is there any reason to look at mccutcheon and say yeah no don't draft him there because Because this looks like one of the core sort of obvious bounce-back players

of the season. Yeah, I mean, the only thing I've got is Jeff Zimmerman's piece on the fact that he's 33 and the projected bounce-backs become less reliable once the player turns 32. But, you know, there's something about, you know, we've talked about this before, but it's like, oh, look but you know there's something about you know we've talked about this before it's like oh look you know season after season after season after season of 155 plus games you know and you know don't you think he can get back to that don't you think he's a really good athlete that's shown well-rounded uh skills on the base paths and

you know every facet of the game basically and don't you think you can get back to that but then there's also players where they play every single game for years and years and years and then they just fall apart yeah the cumulative wear and tear sometimes catches up so i could definitely see where that concern comes from but we're talking about just a devastating random injury with an ACL tear. Maybe that leads to more of the chronic soft tissue things that

do creep up on players. More time to get back from that. Yeah, I just think that's where a lot of my optimism rests on him. So it wasn't anything in particular that caught my eye, other than the ADP. I just think, why not at that price? I think he could be fine even in like a 10-team mixed league. I think Andrew McCutcheon is a perfectly fine option for the outfield.

I landed on this. I thought it was a gem. Maybe it's terrible. If you had to draft a Phillies pitcher at their current average draft position, who would you actually want to take? And I put him in the rundown, but Nola 66, Hector Neres at 123, Zach Wheeler at 126. Spencer Howard's crept up a bit. I think the expectation is that he has a role right away in a shortened season and sticks in the rotation potentially all year. He's up at 276 now. And then you can get your choice of Eflin, Arrieta, Pavetta

after pick 500 if you want to just go endgame and dodge those early guys. But I wasn't feeling Nola at that price at all. And I'm kind of torn between the next three. I think Neris, Wheeler, and Howard are all interesting for different

reasons, but none of those three guys are necessarily must-roster players because with Howard, there's still some performance risk, even though the talent is very intriguing. Yeah, I have Nola at 16. So I feel like 66 is probably buying Nola at price. Right? 16th best pitcher. You're talking about

third round? 21 among all pitchers. That's with Hayter ahead of him. 20th among starters in ADP. I might take Nola. The real answer that I should give is Wheeler because Wheeler is my 30th ranked pitcher

and you're giving me another 60. Right? Mm-hmm. So it probably should be Wheeler. I'm just nervous that last year was what we were going to see out of Wheeler. I had a conversation with him in spring training, which seems so long ago. Spring training won.

It was one of the last conversations I have with a pitcher. Last three pitchers I talked to were Wheeler, Velasquez, and Boyder. Um, and, uh, he basically, I said, you know, I'm sure you've heard like throw the high fastball more often, throw the four-seamer more often. How long does it take you to get command of a pitch to a new area of the zone?

If you hadn't been throwing to high in the zone for very much and some pitching coach was like, hey, let's throw high in the zone. How long would then some pitching coach was like hey let's throw high in the zone how long would it take he's like three bullpens so he suggested to me that he's heard the thing about high four seamers and either the best either this is his best command you know like this is what he considers good command of the high four seamer um i'm i don't know i'm just worried that like i would rather he stayed in in new york if i'm talking about like pitching coaches and pitching development programs and stuff i almost think i would rather he stayed with jeremy heffffernan. I'm just not sure. The guy that they've got

I think now in Philadelphia was the same guy who told Eflin to go back to the two-seamer. And everyone says that Eflin did really well when he went back to the two-seamer, but his strikeout minus walk rate tumbled completely.

Which is more indicative of his true talent as a pitcher than his other outcomes. So I'm afraid that they're going to tell Wheeler to throw a sinker a lot in Philadelphia. I'm not sure that's the right idea. Yeah, that would be disappointing. I do like Wheeler quite a bit.

I think of the group, I've warmed up to Neris as a closer who I really trust. I've warmed up to Neris as a closer who I really trust. So I think Neris is in that range where I might be looking for that first closer. I'd be willing to take him at that price. I think of those three, he's the guy I like the most at this point. I have probably more shares of Neris than anybody. Maybe Neris and Nola because Nola I have in keeper leagues and stuff because i i liked him from the beginning but um neris ends up being one of the last like just like you said what did you say one of the last closer ones basically yeah like the yeah the last

closer one that you feel like is is worth that that premium yeah a couple of rounds over the pack over like ahead of the hansel robles type guys that you might like as a viable two yeah i definitely have naris as uh my closer one in a couple situations because of that where he where he shows up in the in snake rank snake drafts and stuff like that so maybe my answer is naris i guess i don't know well naris and nola naris and nola all right fair enough Nola. All right. Fair enough. And again, Howard at the price. There's nothing wrong with him, but there's other guys that you can be excited about in that same range, too,

who kind of fit a similar profile. I can see Howard also starting on the taxi squad and depending on which way the Phillies go, either coming up soon or never coming up the whole season. Oh, that could be a rough couple of weeks to have to sweat that out. Isn't that what's going to happen with taxi squad people? They're going to be like, with ones that are close, they're going to be like, we're going to know in two weeks

whether or not we have a chance of this season at all. It's 14 games. You just start out poorly and be like, ah, sorry, dude, you're not going to play in the big leagues this year, basically. We're just leagues this year, basically. We're just hunting this year. You've got to see how all the service time rules are going to be applied to various parts of the roster, I guess, too. Yeah, that too.

Let's close it out with the Marlins. Yeah, sorry. Just a visceral reaction. Always. But they're such an interesting test case. And prospects who get to the big leagues and then struggle. They have that. just a visceral reaction. Always. But they're such an interesting test case. Prospects who get to the big leagues and then struggle. They have that. They have lots of that.

Isan Diaz, Louis Brinson. Yeah, it reminds me of that Bill Petty piece that suggested that extreme parks are not amazing for player development or for winning. Just imagine you're... It's like when San Diego used to be extreme pitchers park and their top

you know when rizzo went through el paso imagine being in el paso and you're like every fly ball i hit is a home run and then you get to san diego and you're like every fly ball i hit is a can of corn yeah that would not be great i have a feeling that there's something to that with Florida too. Just hard to get on a roll. Also, I was talking to a friend of the game that was sure that once we do come to some sort of agreement, one of the first things that will happen is all the punting teams will just cut anybody making any money this year, even arbitration guys. They listed Jonathan Villar and also even someone like Matt Boyd maybe.

Wow. That much of an extreme salary dump? Because is there going to be a little bit of protection for teams to do that? Well, think about it. I feel like in arbitration, the rule is that you get X amount, and then you're not guaranteed the whole thing. So if they cut them, then they only have to pay a month of salary or something. I should know the CBA like the back of my hand. It's the dumbest document in the history of man.

But they don't have to pay the whole season salary, and if they feel like they're out of it, then they won't feel like they need to build towards anything, and nobody will think it's a... And then on top of that, nobody might trade. You want to hold Boyd because you want to trade him, but

maybe no one's going to give you anything in this season for Matt Boyd. Boyd should be tradable. I could see a big VR when you think about what happened to him this winter and even Jesus Aguilar. I could see those guys being just outright dropped. And especially because the Marlins have worse financial straits than any other team in baseball.

They're the one team that showed up as losing money in a normal season. Yeah. On Forbes. The appeal of VR to most other teams, at the price too, currently, is next to zero. It's an interesting thing to think about because I think what they're going to want to do is say, hey, let's take the limited games we have and let's let Louis Brinson play. Let's figure out if there's anything here for us in the future other than maybe a fourth outfielder. I think you have to start answering those questions in the limited MLB games you have, limited innings, limited at-bats.

You have to use that as your only real source of player development with games in the next three to four months. Yeah. Yeah, I would see that. I would see this be, this will turn into last chance to win. Louis Brinson in center, Monty Harrison in right, Garrett, well, I guess

they have to play Corey Dickerson because they actually paid him a real contract. Diaz, Isan Diaz gets all year. I think they could drop VR. Cooper at first. Yeah, and they could go next wave with a few young players. Yeah, Luen Diaz was the guy that kind of came to mind.

If you kind of just feel like you know what Garrett Cooper is, maybe he's not a cut, but you're also not prioritizing playing him every day because you want to give those starts to somebody else. Man, they're going to cut somebody like Adam Conley. Makes $1.5 million. I bet you they cut him. I mean, some of their team will scoop up some of these guys

at reduced salaries, which sucks for those players. It's just that at their current price, VR especially, that's the driving factor behind it. Because he could, but then he will end up on some team where he's the definitive backup utility guy. Right, super utility guy on a good team. But he might not get as many green lights either and that's part of it too some of those good teams don't want to run as much so just a massive reduction in player time yeah yeah that's that really sucks uh as you look at this roster

think about the pieces falling off and you know you mentioned monty harrison i i'm still really intrigued by harrison uh he hasn't had that opportunity yet in the big leagues. We saw the speed on display at AAA I think as an endgame deep mixed league option. Obviously NL only is playable there too. I like him quite a bit. There's developing power.

He draws some walks too. Hit tool might be a little bit behind, but I think there's more to like than to dislike in Monte Harrison's profile right now. I mean, it's the kind of player that would turn me off in the past

with those just massive K rates in the minor leagues. But also some opportunity for arbitrage and some buy low ness to him. Are people like super excited about him what's he no he's basically free in mixed league drafts like there's there's not a lot of interest in him at all he's not a

top 100 on fan graphs no you could probably get him pretty cheap and keep her in dynasty league trades too in those cases i'd take a shot at least you'll know fairly soon if you've got anything yeah lots of ways that it could go right but uh yeah as always the last team we cover in the division not as much uh interesting stuff going on there and it could just be gross if they end up cutting some veterans here yeah and it uh you know for all their talk of like oh they have some interesting pitchers like the sixth pitcher is elizier hernandez um i don't see sexto sanchez uh playing in the big leagues this year um and so you know jose reina has a good sinker, and I still think he could be a really great closer. And that might be his second coming, I think.

That's where I anticipate him ending up long term. Yamamoto has a pretty low ceiling. Caleb Smith, I think, has some issues, especially with the health profile, the fact that he's 28 already, and that he was down to 91.6 last year. If he's at 94, I'm interested again. But at 91.6 miles per hour, I'm not so sure I love Caleb Smith. So it kind of all comes down to the only guy that I'm really rostering. I like Brian Anderson, very high floor.

I've got some shares of Brian Anderson, and then I've got some shares of brian anderson and then uh i got some shares of sandy sandy alcon alcontra is it alcontra alcontra i think that is correct all right yeah that's uh it's a messy team i think james rawson being the new hitting coach maybe gives me a little extra nudge of optimism too i i feel the presence of Nando Dufino as I talk about the Marlins too. I think he likes to see the upside, the bright side, the potential things that could go right as it pertains to the young players in this team. Plenty of playing time there, especially if they do these wholesale cuts.

So, you know, Jesus San sanchez maybe not that far off yeah i know i think in deeper leagues he could be pretty interesting maybe bertie is like an actual like almost playable utility guy if vr is gone right he would go from a guy that i don't draft anywhere to a guy that i would at least think about very late deep leagues late steals you know uh and then there's all the all the guys that uh have some upside like brinson and harrison um you know i think maybe there's a chance that alfaro even has one more one more year at 27 years old um he could have a season where he hits 280 with 25 homer type power.

Yeah, he's got tools. He always has had them. It's just a question of how much he can reduce the swing and miss and the last push, I guess, to see if that's actually a possibility this year. Not that he won't get playing time in the future, but if it doesn't happen now, it's probably never going to happen as far as Jorge Alfaro unlocking that next level. If you're enjoying the show on a platform that allows you to rate and review it, please take a moment to do that. We greatly appreciate everybody who's done that. If you

don't already have a subscription to The Athletic, you can support the site with a paid subscription and get 40% off at theathletic.com slash slash rates and barrels we got one more division to go as we close out this series on thursday if you got questions for us we'll start opening up the mailbag again soon rates and barrels at the athletic.com you can also tweet at us he's at you know saris i'm at derek van riper that is going to wrap things up for this episode of rates and barrels Barrels. We are back with you on Thursday. Thanks for listening.