Rates & Barrels - How Can Keeper Leagues Make You a Better Redraft Player?

Episode Date: August 9, 2024

Eno and DVR discuss the pros (and a few potential cons) of playing in keeper leagues and how long-term formats can make you a better redraft league player. Plus, they consider the ceiling and 2025 redraft ADP of Jackson Chourio, the recent struggles of David Bednar, a big move up for the White Sox's system in Baseball America's midseason rankings update, and a few weekend waiver-wire targets. Rundown 1:34 Biases That Can Develop From Keeper/Dynasty Leagues 7:00 How Keeper Leagues Make You a Better Redraft Player 16:29 Jackson Chourio's Ceiling & 2025 Redraft ADP Outlook 29:36 Concern About Lars Nootbaar's Playing Time? 35:58 What Has Happened to David Bednar? 39:30 Maybe the White Sox's Future Isn't Awful? 45:02 The Angels' Long-Term Outlook 50:13 Weekend Waiver Preview (Hitters) 1:01:15: Tyler Mahle, Spencer Arrighetti & DJ Herz Follow Eno on Twitter: @enosarris Follow DVR on Twitter: @DerekVanRiper e-mail: [e-mail] Join our Discord: https://discord.gg/FyBa9f3wFe Join us on Thursdays at 1p ET/10a PT for our livestream episodes! Subscribe to The Athletic: theathletic.com/ratesandbarrels Hosts: Derek VanRiper & Eno Sarris Producer: Brian Smith Executive Producer: Derek VanRiper Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

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Benefits vary by card, other conditions apply. Oh. ["The Daily Show Theme"] Welcome to Rates and Barrels, it's Friday, August 9th. Derek Van Riper, EnoSaris here with you on this episode. We dig into a question I've been kicking around for a little bit. Does playing in keeper leagues make you a better redraft player? Keeper leagues relatively speaking still not that popular.

A lot of people that listen to the show might play them but they're not that mainstream because they tend to be a lot of work. We'll talk about the possible benefits of being in those leagues or at least one of them. And drawbacks. There's some drawbacks too but I think more pros than cons would be my initial assessment. We'll see if you can push me into a more neutral spot. We got some mailbag questions including one about Lars Newtbar, Jackson Churio. I didn't make up the mailbag question about Jackson Churio. I know what you're all thinking.

That was a real question that came in from a user in our Discord named Ari. Sure, Sameric Man Piper. Yeah, I don't have a burner on our own Discord. I don't operate that way. If you wanna join the Discord, you can do that. The link is in the show description. I'll be able to project prospect conversation

about Baseball America updating their farm rankings mid-season so maybe a little bit of an apology is owed to the White Sox and probably some Anaheim Angels slander coming in that segment too. We'll have a weekend waiver preview later on in the episode as well. So let's start up top. I'm curious to know now what are your drawbacks of playing in keeper and dynasty leagues because I came into this thinking it's only Positive I guess one drawback. I will submit up top is they are time-consuming So it's time you're spending on other leagues if you add that Alongside your round leagues and they're year-round you're right. Yeah. No, the negative is and it's gonna come up later. So

I'm gonna preview that we're gonna talk about Lars Nubar. That's one of the questions. And what can happen, I think, in KeeperLeagues is you set a longer horizon for your evaluations of players. So you will be okay with longer sets of inability, longer poor production, because you see something that you think will right ship. So if you think on the level of two or three years, but in Redraft, you need to think on the level of six months and that's all that matters.

Sometimes you don't pull the plug quick enough. Ah, okay, so you make an argument to the extent of maybe we keep failing with C'Brien Hayes in redraft because we play in keeper in dynasty leagues where he doesn't have to break out right now you can keep waiting and keep waiting. Still not too old you know he's still he's still got these components he's still got the raw power you're like it still could come together you could still have a good year. Yeah. And then I think that in in redrafts, you have to

be a little bit more cutthroat. I've had some success with a co owner that is extremely cutthroat. And I'm extremely not. And so we kind of bandy bandy our discussions back and forth about, you know, what he's done in the last week or two versus like, you know, what he could do in his career over the next couple of years, which might be irrelevant to the redraft,

but it's not always because it's really a discussion of, you know, how long can I wait? And that's a really hard decision to make in every league. And I think it's really hard for teams. Just look at, yeah, we'll talk about this in the next part, but just look at, you know, what the Cardinals have done with him, you know, or look at Tommy Pham's career where they slow walked him in the minors. Then he gets an opportunity with someone else and gets, you know, does really well. And then the Rays are like, no, we're gonna cut, cut this one quick, you know?

So like, there's different ways that teams think about windows on players as well. And so that, that's malleable and that, you know, if you play Dynasty and Keeper, you have a longer window of evaluation, just naturally, I think. Is the other possible evaluation downside that you would be more susceptible if you play and keep her in dynasty leagues be more susceptible to overvalue prospects or age to level production

relatively speaking even though those are the better players in the pool for non big leaguers and even though age level does Matter if you swing too far in that direction because of keeper and dynasty leagues, you get to the point in redraft where an older surprising player comes up. We talked about Doyle, talked about Tyler Fitzgerald on yesterday's show, and I think you may have more skepticism

towards the non-prospects that come through. Doyle wasn't a complete non-prospect, but he also wasn't somebody that was popping on top 50s and like he's on top 100s before he debuted. So I wonder if that's one of the other potential drawbacks is sort of narrowing your view of what's good in the short term because of how you think so much about the long term. 100% 100%. Like I did. I have no shares of Brenton Doyle. I have no shares of Tyler Fitzgerald. And in redrafts, I probably should. Even if Tyler Fitzgerald only hits like 230 going forward, he has the job. And there's a chance that he just has his career year

now, you know, and continues this run that he's on. But I will say that like, it also helps you because I have no shares of Reese Hines. And part of that is because I think in these longer terms where I'm like, these aren't skills I want to bet on. You know, these aren't skills that usually turn out in the long run. Could Reese Hines have put together an Aristides- A Keno. A Kenoino like run.

Yes. A hundred percent. And I could have been wrong, but I just wasn't willing to pay the 10% you know, FAB that it required pay the, pay the price that it required to play that game because I just didn't see it happening and I see Tyler Fitzjoe is somewhat similar, but he's cut his K rate. He's got more defensive value, you value, so may miss the boat. And part of it is because I'm looking at strikeout rate

and age, age to level and things like that. I think the positives though, outweigh these negatives. These negatives aren't as bad if you become aware of them and start to correct them. But I think those are the initial negatives I've had from the first probably 10 or so years that I've played those long-term formats. I think having to make more decisions,

which you have to do with deeper rosters, that's a good thing in the long run, because you're making a lot more comparisons to what I have and what I have available to me in the pool right now. And even if the timelines on those players are different than they are in redraft, you still have to make a call.

You have to come up with a reason to cut a player loose or to bundle a player in a trade, or to trade for a player, and I think that sharpens your analysis quite a bit. And I gotta say, I, for a long time, didn't want to sign up for Auto New, even though I loved the concept of it from the first time I heard about it, because I thought this will consume me.

And I have so many leagues, 10 plus leagues most years. Finally took the plunge last year, built the team very poorly as I've talked about on this show because the draft overlapped the birth of my son. Not ideal for focus, but anyway, I'm rebuilding already. No big deal, fine. But I'm actually having a lot of fun rebuilding. And the way Niv designed Auto-New is much more engaging than a lot of other leagues. If you start to fall out of it in some Keeper and Dynasty leagues,

and it's 20 teams, there's not always something out there that's interesting. You have to dig even deeper. Auto-New's 12 teams. And even with large rostersters you can find something most weeks to go get and possibly improve your roster. So I have found that format in particular to be one that has me digging into more corners of the player pool than I might be if I played in a 20 or 24 team Dynast league which is also

good. It makes you better in a different way. So I would highly recommend auto new as like a good foray into keeper leagues because it's it's going to open up the number of players you're looking at almost immediately. Yeah, so it'll it'll make you prepared for anything that's coming down the wire, you know, in your redraft. So you'll just be like, oh, I know that guy. You know, that has been on my league for a while, you know, and I've been or I've been looking at him or I own him, you know.

And, you know, the other been on my league for a while, you know, and I've been or I've been looking at him or I own him, you know. And, you know, the other the other thing that's interesting is I think that a good measure of the quality of any game, if it's settlers of Catan or, you know, a desktop game, or, you know, a tabletop game or a fancy game is, are there many different ways to win? And one thing I would say about on news is there's many ways. I think there's many different ways to win? And one thing I would say about, I don't know, there's many ways, I think there's many different ways to reveal, there's at least two really prominent ones I can think of, which is load up on prospects

and try to get the top prospects at a cheap enough price that you suddenly have a bunch of top prospects come to fruition at the same time on cheap things, and you can add veterans to that. I took a slightly different approach. I mean, I do have Zach Vien, Jose, Jose De Paula and Spencer Jones in my rebuild.

But I also traded for a three dollar Michael Bush, a two dollar Brendan Rodgers, a one dollar Joey Ortiz. I got a one dollar Lawrence Butler. I traded for a five dollar Christian Walker. You know, so, you know, it's not guaranteed that I have,

you know, a bunch of studs, but I have covered at least in terms of depth, you know, a bunch of different positions at a cheap price. So now I can go into the auction and I have a bunch of money and I can buy whatever I want and make the pieces fit behind it because I have multi eligible $2 guys that I can switch around. So that's been my approach, but then there's definitely the just get the best prospects you can

and build around the ones that work out. I'm not cutthroat enough because I don't love the draft in Otto New and which can help me when I am competitive, stay competitive. I generally have good runs with my teams that are, but I generally finish third in my league a lot and haven't gone all the way. So I'm considering if I need to be,

A, more cutthroat and B, more prospect-centric. Yeah, just one step away. I've pushed it pretty hard with some of the prospects and I made a point early to make a deal for Wyatt Langford. Jackson Churio is a big part of my team now. He's up to like eight bucks, which I'm sure will get plenty of dollars in the off season arbitration process. But if you're bad, you don't get as many arbitration dollars.

So that's kinda cool too. I won't catch as many of those, and then I've got a bunch of inexpensive, like $5 and under guys that are double A and triple A guys right now that should, in some combination, drop into my roster over the course of next year. So if I have a few good young big leaguers now,

like Neto for three three the two outfielders I mentioned with Langford and Churio any pie Hayes for a buck, you know, Colt Keith for three Bush for three I got that in the big league core the next group coming up and some interesting pitching. I Think I'm doing it right. I'll know real soon by this time next year Even while you're rebuilding like that You should spend your money in the draft because you can even if it doesn't help you. It's it's like the the teams in the big leagues that will sign somebody on a one year deal.

You know, sign Jack Flaherty on one year deal, turn him into some prospects if he has to go to another different team. Exactly. Yep. And I think the the trading does seem to be a bit easier, even though there's fewer teams, even though it's a 12 team league Because I think everybody plays in these auto new leagues with a better sense of okay. I can actually trade a prospect I don't have to clutch every single one quite as tight because there are chances to find guys that are Outside the top 50 among prospects right now that could take a big leap in the next few months Like I do think it's just balanced in a way

where you actually get action on the trade front. And I think in deeper dynasty leagues I've played in, it is really hard. It's so unlikely that someone moves Wyatt Langford in a 20 team or a 24 team dynasty league. It's almost impossible. It's like a godfather offer. We've become really stratified in our 20 team

where the top five or 10 prospects, nobody will touch. Nobody will trade. Nobody will hug. And every other prospect is useless and invaluable in trades. Not great. So it's become pretty difficult to trade. But I did make a trade. It'll come up later.

Ah, you did. I think all these things help you think about how likely these things are to continue in the long run and what the bankable skills are and what you want to look at to evaluate a player. So I do think it's generally a positive. All right, so we're leaning towards more good than bad, but you have to be aware of the ways

that being in long-term leagues can start to creep into your evaluation. It can make you a little more clingy than you should be with certain player types. You mentioned this, but I have seen guys, I've seen people who work in the prospect side of fantasy, you know, get into things like TGFBI, or you know, get into things like TGFBI or, you know, get into these

and get a lot of first year players in their draft. And I'm like, that's a little risky. Like you really only should have one or two of those, you know, and you can get too far into the like the weeds really for a redraft where you're like, no, here's a funny thing about real baseball that's a corollary is I tried to look at the correlation of age to winning percentage and like the correlation of team age to team winning percentage and I Found that there wasn't a strong correlation and the teams that won the best were actually like 28 on average You know the youngest teams didn't win that much and that's because they're rebuilding teams. They have a lot of young players They haven't supplemented but that's also because they haven't supplemented

Mm-hmm, you know, so the light bulb should go off a little bit when you hear that and be like, oh, yeah My ideal fantasy team should have a couple young guys on it But the closer I can get to 27 28 average You know across my fantasy team is probably good too because that means I have a lot of established guys and Maybe I supplement with the right couple of 32 year olds that were cheaper because then they needed to be And you just have to get that balance, right? and of course It's not super easy because you know, you'll end up with Paul Goldschmidt and you're just like why why why do I do?

I do this because he was cheaper and you know, nobody wanted him I'm still laughing because this particular league the Chad Young is nice enough to commission for us to Paul Goldschmidt was a dollar in this year's auction because the room like froze like the room simultaneously Grabbed a sip of their beer Tried to buy an Alabama Shakes tour poster. They're like this guy will go for 15. I don't want to spend 15 on it. Yeah, literally, everybody except Sarah Sanchez made the nomination for a buck just to start it. And everybody else looked at it and goes,

oh, somebody will bid 15 and did something else for 30 seconds and then looked back and we're like, what the heck? You're going for a dollar. And we all thought, oh, that's a huge bargain. Goldie's gonna be amazing. That's gonna be maybe even a guy that gets arbitration dollars from people in the off season.

It's like, oh, that didn't actually work out at all. But still for her, an amazing idea. For a buck, why not? But it was just a hilarious random thing that I thought was gonna make much more of an impact than it actually did over the course of this year. Speaking of making an impact though, Ari in the Discord asked the question that I've been

thinking about all the time, what is Jaxxon Churio's ceiling and if things keep going the way they have been over the last two months, what kind of ADP are we talking about for him in redraft in 2025? This question was actually answered by another person or discord, JT Hamlet7, the suggestion here, let's see if you agree with this ceiling. Eventual ceiling is something like 282.90, around 30 homers and 40 plus steals. 98% tiles sprint speed, stole over 40 bases

in the minors last year, so I'd expect him to run more. Power, I'm not totally sure, because he gets good scouting grades, but it's an 88.9 average EV in a 1097 Max I think if he continues like this the rest of season he'll probably be drafted end of second beginning of the third round next year where guys like Ellie and Gunner were going this year so dude it gets a pretty good answer to the question that Ari put out there in discord. It's not bad I don't want to be too fixated. I bring up Max CV and I think it's important.

And I have seen people do research and say like, well, Max CV is not correlated to stuff. But I think to really understand the power of Max CV, you need to understand that it describes like sort of upside over an arc of a career. So I think a better study of Max CV's power might be given a certain Max CV in a rookie season, what was the peak power output for this player over his career? You know, because if you look in the any one season, you may find this guy's not getting to his raw power, his Max CV is irrelevant, you know. So I think it's one of those. I think again, this is sort of like what we're talking about with keeper leagues versus redraft. Could he add to his maxi V is I

haven't seen a maxi V aging curve, but a 1097 is not above average. In fact, Bryson Stott just hit a ball harder than that. And so I'm going to take the under on that power. And I do wonder about the speed getting that high. I know he has that sprint speed, but then you have to take into consideration the, the idea, like his manager and his team and just how they're going to play. And I just don't know that the, the Brewers are going to be a go-go team in terms of just overall stolen bases they are third. I think they are a go-go team I think the the Murphy Brewers part of it's who they have but I mean look at Yelich at his

age still running as much as he does right you give him the big money you take all of his injuries into consideration you still give him why hasn't Cheerio stolen more this year? Some of it was the low OBP to begin the season, making the adjustments. We've seen a lot of young players come up who have speed and not necessarily wanna make mistakes, right? So it's a comfort level thing that I think-

You don't wanna get sent down, yeah. As you get more comfortable getting reads against big league pitchers, you start taking off a little bit more He's got the OVP up at 322 right now. So he's got chances 15 for 19 so far the ground ball rates a little bit high too. So like You know for the power question, so I'm gonna go with 280 I don't know what the the walk rate is gonna do. It wasn't really impressive in the minor. So

we'll go with 280 330 and then give him a what the walk rate's going to do. It wasn't really impressive in the minor. So I'm going to go with 280, 330 and then give him a peak of like a 200 ISO maybe. So 280, that'd be 280, 330, 480. That's pretty good. But I don't think that's 30 homers. 200 is more like 20, 25 homers, like 25 homers. So I'm going give him 25 homers, I'm gonna give him 35 steals. So 280, 25, 35. Which is not that far from what he's doing right now. Like he's gonna end this season with like a 270, 20, 25. See now, now you got me digging into the leaderboards

because we see so few players playing in the big leagues at this age, the comps get messy real fast, right? I mean, Jackson Churio's still 20. So. Yeah, you don't have too many 20 year olds. So you look at, let's just look at 21 year olds that have played in the big leagues since, I don't know, 2000, gonna go back that far.

That seems reasonable, right? And what do we have for best Isos, we'll will say for how many get 300 plate appearances at least because he's up over that number Oh my god. He has so much my trout Yeah, you're gonna see a lot of Mike trout if you run searches like this Soto you see okay, so many machado similar ISO to what Churio did Manny Machado, similar ISO to what Churio did. It's a similar age. Churio has the 23rd best ISO on this list. Yeah, I opened mine up.

Look at Merrill, ooh, Merrill spicy. I didn't do split seasons, I did combined seasons going back to 2000. I got split seasons. Churio is 23rd, Merrill is 19th. In their general range is, Vadim Agarar Jr., Ezekiel Tovar last year, but also Nomar Mazzara, Eric Hosmer, Carlos Correa, Jackson Merrill, Jason Hayward, Ryan Zimmerman.

So like, they're not in the no doubt portion. Like the no doubt portion above the sort of 160 to 180 that I just did. So let's say you have higher than a 200 ISO and you're under 21 years old since 2000, you are like a hall of famer almost. Bryce Harper, Miguel Herrera, Julio Rodriguez, Justin Upton, who had a really good career.

Mike Trout, Mike Trout, Ronald Acuna Jr., Juan Soto, Giancarlo Stanton, Albert Pujols, Fernando Tatis Jr., Cody Bellinger, Juan Soto. So Soto and Trout did it twice. Anyway, that's a really good list. He's not quite there. Yeah, not quite there, but tons to like long term.

I actually think the second late second, early third, if he keeps on his current pace, which has been really bolstered over the last two months, I think that's a reasonable ADP expectation. Whether or not it's another hmm. We're in or not at that spot that you were all in on Ellie. I think we were both maybe a little bit like lukewarm on Gunner at the price. I have shares of Churio this year. He was one of my guys that I thought he's worth taking a shot

because after they signed that deal, he's going to play all year. Yeah, I mean, I think in the seventh or eighth round of a 15 team league, if you're getting a top end prospect, one, two, three on a typical year, like someone who's elite or supposed to become elite, that's a good gamble. I think when that price creeps into the fourth or fifth round, that's when you're passing on a little bit too much established value, giving up on a $20 hitter or oftentimes oftentimes a $20 pitcher, for a wider range of outcomes. That's kind of the sweet spot.

So the cost is a huge, huge part of your redraft approach with players like this. And I did feel like the Choreo price didn't quite go to the moon during draft season. The other thing I want to mention really quickly is I have the qualified filter on right so that there's there's more players in here with if you if you relax that but I thought it'd be worth having the qualified filter on because we're looking for people who play you know we want that we wanted them to play so in the top 25 of players 21 and under since 2000 in the top 25 just by ISO and all of these guys except for the last one and he's an exception in two ways.

So I'm just going to say top 24 and I know that sounds like I'm playing around with numbers, but I'll tell you who the 25th guy is at the end. So in the top 24, everybody's above league average with WRC plus. I would venture everybody returned positive value fantasy wise on this season. So these are the guys you wanna bet on. And I'm gonna list to you the worst strikeout rates in the top 24, right?

So remember these are young players. Freddie Freeman, 22%. Ronda Cooney Jr. in 2019, 26%. Giancarlo Stanton 2011 27 percent. Tatis 23.7. Bellinger 26.6. Everybody else is below 21 percent. Okay.

So there's 24 players. I also labeled, you know, some of the most amazing prospects of our time, you know. And I didn't say a single one over 27% You know, I guess Stanton so my point is if you are gonna bet on a young player in their rookie year Please take a look at their strikeout rate I think that I don't want to say that strikeout rate is important for every player But I do think that when you're landing in the big leagues, you want a Merrill and a Churio.

I know I said I like LA this year and I'm profiting off of that. Maybe there's room for like a Giancarlo Stanton who plays shortstop. You know what I mean? Like maybe you can make some exceptions. But generally, if you're taking a bet, I think it's good to take a look at strikeout rate. Twenty-fifth was Ezekiel Tovar, who had a 70 WRC plus in 2023 with a 27% strikeout rate. But he was also the lowest ISO. He's 25th ISO. So you know, you'll miss some Tovars, but you'll gain some Merrells and Churios if you

take a look at strikeout rate. I'm thinking through some of the other names on this list a little bit. And the added power generally is something you want. Most of the guys that have more power than Churio have turned out to have really good careers. And there's only a couple of guys on this list you look at and go, oh, if that's the outcome,

that'd be disappointing. But the difference I think between, this is from a power perspective, if you see Churio and then you see Eric Hosmer a couple spots away, you're like, oh, Eric Hosmer's here? Jackson Churio from a power perspective. If you see Churio and you see Eric Hosmer a couple of spots where like, oh, Eric Hosmer's here. Jackson Churio is a great runner. That is going to add so much more value to his profile in the long run. I think the most pessimistic comp on this list is Hayward.

Yeah. And even Hayward, I mean, like there's the hit by a pitch that like, maybe changed everything for him. He got hit in the face with that pitch and just wasn't Wasn't quite the same guy after that. Let's say you dial up the the Hayward running a little bit You know to make him cheerio. Let's say we're just gonna you know Hey word had 11 9 21 stolen bases to stolen bases 20 and 23 in his first six seasons Let's just give him, let's give him, let's give him Cheerio stuff, right?

So let's give him 25 stolen bases for those years, right? He also hit 18, 14, 27 homers, 14, 11, 13. I think that's a bad outcome for Cheerio and that's fancy value in all six years. I think the hardest thing for us to do right now is to look at a player, to see the max EV, and say, okay, what does this become long-term? And I wonder too, like with the quality of pitching

being what it is, and we've always wondered, like when are you really like a finished product from a raw power perspective? Kind of an unknown, I think, just given how young all these players are on this list even if you have someone who in within the stat cast era on this list you're only talking about 15 players we even have a max ev even if Churio is near the bottom of that list I don't know if that is that meaningful I mean Juan Soto's max ev when he broke in was 112.8 if we see Jax and Churio

come back stronger next year and hit a 112, we're going to feel a lot better about his power potential than we do right now. And I don't think it's that far-fetched that he could still get bigger and stronger and make something like that happen. But for now, you know, as you saw it, Churio is the 14th best max.dv just ahead of Aston Russell and behind Ezekiel Tovar. So and Ozzy Albies is down there. Yes, it's the raw that we're still kind of waiting on for him.

But man, there's a ton to like 60 present future 70 from from Fang or asked on their last report. So good question, Ari. And one of those things where if you play mostly keeper leagues, you might be more willing to bet on Churio in 2025 even at that very high price for me I'm still I'm gonna absorb the last two months and really think more about it I think before I commit to this profile that I hit a ball 111 or something, you know Could happen any day. That's what I want to see. I'll be really happy when that happens Madigan wants to know are we worried about Lars? when that happens. Madigan wants to know,

are we worried about Lars Newt Barr's role? If you look at the way the Cardinals have used Newt Barr and things got more crowded of course with the return of Tommy Pham at the trade deadline, you will see that in three of the Cardinals' last six games, Lars Newt Barr didn't start. Two of those were against lefties, but one of those was against a righty.

And that's the real concern, right? You become someone who loses time against pitchers from both sides. Then you're falling out of favor pretty quickly in a lot of mixed leagues until that trend changes. Why do you have the when you control the mail, you control information? Oh, it's mailbag. OK, mailbag. That's a Simpsons quote, right? That's Seinfeld Newman.

Oh, that's right. Okay. I was thinking about the bees. The bees. And Simpsons, what does he say? Like when you control the bees, you control the honey. Anyway, yes. So I've got a thing. So what I asked was why would Newt Barbies sitting against these righties?

And here's a righty he stood against. So Jameson Tyon, this is his cutter usage versus lefties on the left. And you can see that he likes to throw cutters. It's like backdoor cutters really, you know? He throws them away and low. He likes to throw them low and in and low and away to lefties.

And Lars Newt Barr over here,, unfortunately the perspectives are flipped because they're pitcher and hitter, but you can see the Lars Knutbar facing him likes the pitches up and in. That's where his power is. I'm showing a power heat map. He's best up and in. And so I think this is just a matchup that doesn't work for Knutbar in terms of James and Tyon's strengths and Lars Newt Barr's weaknesses.

That's like just an explanation of why he might have sat against Tyon, but it does help you a little bit in sort of the discussion we have been having about redraft versus keeper. So in a redraft league, this is a major red flag, and if you really need to move on and you're in a 12 team or even in a 15 team where you just need playing time and you don't you can't depend on him to be out there at least against every righty because maybe the righty can throw low in the zone then you've got to be out but you know and I hinted on this earlier I'm gonna be in you know arguing with my co-manager if I have a newt bar or trying to acquire him in

my keeper leagues because I still see a guy who's 26 years old has plus raw power has average ish to above average ish game power has not pulled the ball as much as he did earlier and has excellent plate skills and still runs and I don't know if that chance that, you know, to get, he hasn't even gotten a full playing season yet. I don't know if that chance to get a full playing season is gonna come on the Cardinals or somewhere else, you know? But I do think that's still coming. And I love his combination of swinging strike,

strike out walk, raw power barrel. Those are all the things that we obviously care about here. And they're still all there for him. walk, raw power, barrel. Those are all the things that we obviously care about here. And they're still all there for him. So if he's my new Cabrion Hayes, you know, then I'm going to be in trouble and I'm going to, I'm going to draft some re I think it was going to be really late next year. Lars Nubat is going to be really cheap next year. And he's going to be my fifth and sixth outfielder in, in draft and holds and you know, in, in, and redrafts.

And maybe that'll be a mistake, but it'll be because of my sort of keeper league mindset. I just put an offer out there for Newt Barr in one of my leagues, and I just traded George Springer for Ka'Brien Hayes in my 20 team dynasty. So I will keep making the same mistakes because I bet on these things.

And usually betting on these things leads to success. And at this point, the argument, my argument for the spring of trade is just, you know, he's so close to done, I think. I mean, it's just even if he has been playing better recently and even if he did play like that a little bit more next year, I think he'll just be injured, too. So, I mean, the 34 years old, you're really losing any trade value. Yeah, I think that's I think that is actually his trade value. Right. I think

that's a that's a pretty good exit because even if Springer holds it together has another good season or possibly two, more likely outcomes also feature injuries kind of chopping up that production and the new bar is falling into like health grade C or D Territory right now to it's been injuries that have really robbed him of opportunities They've had crowding in the depth chart too. So an offseason trade might be a nice way to sort of Or family of town and they try again. They say okay to begin the season new bars I got our starter out there and you know, we'll see I mean you look back the last two seasons combined now it's a little more than a full season with the

plate appearances. It's 755 plate appearances, 21 homers, 16 steals in 17 attempts with about a 240 ish average you know almost a 9% barrel rate not chasing good OVP. Yeah all those skills are still there. If the Cardinals sour on Lars Newtbar, there will be a few teams interested in making him a regular part of their mix. And I know the Rays already maybe rescued Dylan Carlson from St. Louis, so maybe they'll come back around in the offseason and scoop up Lars Knutbar as well. Thanks a lot for that question. Madigan? A little Felix update. I'm getting some texts from Jeff Zimmerman over at Fangraphs and it looks like I told my son, you know, one of his summer break thing is that he needs

to read the glossary at Fangraphs and learn about advanced statistics. But when he gets there, he gets a little distracted sometimes and reads the articles. I think he's joined a Jeff Zimmerman chat. Uh, and he's, and he's now talking crap on, uh, his super shallow league in the Jeff Zimmerman chat. So thanks Felix. Get back to work. Yeah, easy to get distracted at fan graphs and fall into the rabbit hole. That was the kids.

That's incredible. Got a question here from Andrew M. What has happened to David Bednar? I loved Bednar as a very safe closer entering the season firmly in the circle of trust. I felt like the price on draft day was really good. And for my inclusion of Bednar in the circle of trust, I've been rewarded with a 577 ERA, a 131 whip. Just hasn't looked as good. 20 saves have been there. You've had the saves, but you've taken on,

taken on some water in those ratio categories. I think the basic answer for me is just that seasons are small samples for relievers. And this is, to me, really smacks of the Edwin Diaz bad year where some slight injury problems combined with some surprisingly poor command. I can point you that you know he's lost a little bit of ride on the fastball as he's throwing it harder that his curveball doesn't have quite the same movement but I think these are sort of small things. He still has like a 128 stuff plus over the last 14 days, so he hasn't lost his stuff

at all. It's been command and I would point out that, you know, I talked to him once before about losing the curveball. So I think he just, you know, sometimes he loses the command. He loses the mechanics a little bit. If you are a reliever and you have two games or you give up, you know 600 runs it's really hard to clean up your Your season ERA for you know from that that's one thing Smoltz said they hated about

relieving versus starting was you know one bad outing you're trying to trying to clean up your ERA all season as a reliever and You know you can as a starter you can you can put more good outings out there and more good sample and like you know And clean it up quicker. So I think bed is gonna be a great bet next year I think he may lose his job this year, you know, it's again This is that that tension between long term and short term, you know They have an option in the roles Chapman who just maybe threw one of the best pitches in the history of baseball I don't know if you saw this. He threw a 104.7 front door sinker to Manny Machado that came back into the zone for a called strike.

I mean, it literally, Manny Machado is like, I'm about, he's about to like amputate me. Yeah, he's already worried about lower half injuries and now he's got this coming at him from a 36 year old. Yeah, 36 year old throwing a 1047, you know, front door sinker. You know, he hasn't been throwing the sinker that much, you know, over his career he's been adding it recently. Stuff Plus loves to take out that sinker. Manny Machado looked up at him like, what? You know, like, what am I?

Like, I think he said, damn. Like you see his mouth. It's a you said, damn. So anyway, that was a oh, what I was I saying? Oh, yes, they can give the job to Chapman for a couple of weeks or for, you know, six weeks. They could do that. I do think that now is a closer again next year.

So it makes them a little bit of an acquire iner in keeper leagues, I still think, in redrafts. I would hold until he's actually lost the job. It's weird to see the stuff actually pick up and the results go as far in the wrong direction. It's 77 location plus over the last two weeks. That's all it takes to have a couple of bad outings, a couple homers, and it all just unravels really quickly. Thanks a lot for that question, Andrew.

Let's get to a brief project prospect. This caught my eye because I saw that Baseball America dropped some updated farm rankings, mid-season rankings of every organization in baseball. And I thought to myself, we were pretty harsh on the White Sox long-term outlook. Their short-term outlook is bleak, understandably so. They've hit rock bottom this season. But the White Sox, on that list, where do you think they landed?

Did you see it on the outline already? Did you see the article? I did, and I was surprised, and I don't know if I even fully agree. That's, okay. Even if you disagree, they have them inside their top 10 at number eight. Highly recommend Baseball America. Great content over there. You should get a subscription. Yeah, if you disagree, they have him inside their top 10 at number eight. Highly recommend Baseball America.

Great content over there. You should get a subscription. Yeah, if I disagree, it's not because I think they're not good at it. Yeah, it's not that at all. It's like you'd be picking Knits in a couple players on the list. I think the one guy in particular that you and I

like less than others would be Drew Thorpe. Some of the concerns you've previously outlined about Drew Thorpe might make him a fringy top 100 guy or a non top 100 guy for you, but even if. My comp is Chris Paddock. Okay, fine. So let's say Thorpe is someone that the industry as a whole is higher on and wrong about, okay.

They did as I mentioned. The industry as a whole traded them three times, so. Well, that's true. I think they have four other guys inside BA's top 100 and three other guys inside the 50 so that's a pretty nice foundation to have I've talked on the show about Noah Schultz being one of my favorite pitching prospects in the minors Colson Montgomery is having a little bit of a down year still has a big league future I think that's pretty

clear that's actually the place I wanted to push back a little bit in the positive way against myself. I, as the king of waffles, I'm allowed to do this. I don't know if I was positive enough. I think that yes, he right now, Colson Montgomery, has an 86 WRC plus, has a 22 year old, a triple A. That's youngish for the level. I think it's young for the level.

Yeah, it's still young for the level. It's like a year young. It's not super young, but it's a littleh for the level. I think it's young for the level. Yeah, it's still young for the level It's like a year young. It's not super young But it's it's a little young for the almost so there you have a positive upward adjustment on the WRC plus To its ABS and what we're seeing is a big spike in swinging strike rate And a downward movement in his walk rate with the machines in a way that he may never play Against in the future in the big leagues That's two three one thirteen point eight max EV is pretty standout It's not a 120 O'Neill Cruz area, but that is a good number for a young player

for stole seven bases This year in triple a so that's the most he's stolen not necessarily saying that's gonna pour it over to more than Three to five bags in the big leagues, but speaks well of his health which we had been an issue Speaks well of his athleticism his ability to stay it short I do think stolen bases say a little bit about that, you know a decent hard hit rate So there's a lot to like here Even if the strikeout rate is outsized. And on top of that, 29% strikeout rate and a 10.7% swinging strike rate do not match.

So I would say the ABS has something to do with this and that I am still fairly bullish on Colson Montgomery. He's the, I think they're obviously the best top, their best prospect. And if they do have a cornerstone shortstop coming up, that does change some of their outcome because I think Carrero is pretty good too. I don't know if he's a great guy to bet on for fantasy because you know, catchers are catchers and they sometimes take a while and offensively they don't always work out. But you know, for the White Sox, they might have some good stuff going on up the middle.

Yeah, the trade that they got Edgar Carrow from was the Lucas G Alito trade with the Angels. The Angels started Lucas G Alito six times and then put him on waivers and he went to Cleveland. So to get a possible long term starting catcher and then they got Kai Bush, who actually has debuted this year. The stuff model doesn't like him but You know maybe an up-and-down guy or reliever in the long run at least the possible fill-in starter for now looks great

I mean the strikeout rate under 20% really nice walk rate really nice ISOs no problem with ground ball rate I guess there's some question the the bat of all numbers aren't amazing But there's also some question about his defense, but I think they'll probably just install him in catcher pretty soon. Probably most of next year, he's gonna be their catcher. And I think Montgomery comes up even with the AAA struggles, because that still looks like a really good profile to bet on.

So if you start putting some of those guys on the roster already early next season. And Getz could be feeling it. He might just be like, hey, no, you guys were talking crap on us all last year. Here's our new starting shortstop, he's 23. Here's our new catcher, he's 24. This future starts today. Maybe we win a rookie of the year with one of these guys.

And I think the critiques of Getz as farm director, I mean, if you look back, Baseball America had them as the worst system in 2022 to start the year. The 28th ranked system to begin last year, and they were 18th to begin this year. So moving up for sure, but they hit rock bottom just a couple of years ago.

So that's where I think a lot of the, hey, is Chris Gets a good farm director? Like there might be fair questions to ask there, but maybe that future is not as bad as we think with the White Sox, even though the present has been absolutely brutal. The other kind of takeaway I had was the Angels being dead last on this list.

And it makes sense because they've moved prospects quick but they've also missed on a bunch of guys too. So like you can give them all the flowers for Zach Neto and being right about that pick and even being right about how fast they brought him to the big leagues. And maybe we could even say the jury is still out on what Nolan Shanuel is gonna be long term just because he got to the big leagues and maybe we could even say the jury is still out on what Nolan Shannuel is going to be

Long term just because he got to the big leagues much faster than expected He is getting to a little bit more game power this year. It's still a 380 slug with a 4.1% barrel rate So yeah, it's not it's not great, but it's at least some Sort of progress from a guy that I think we were pretty skeptical of it's a 107 wrc plus cuz the OVP is pretty good So yeah, they rushed their guys They're doing it again with Christian Moore who might be promoted again the next couple of days We talked about that earlier in the week that what? They're just gonna keep moving them dude. Wow. I haven't seen the second promotion yet, but I'm just I'm waiting for it

Oh, you're just joking. He's already got three homers in four games at double-a How long are they gonna sit on that? But they are the team that's dead last and then they had the all-pitcher draft The Angels might have the worst three-year outlook in baseball It's possible that you could probably argue them off of that by looking at Oh hoppy and netto Maybe something with Adele you have something up up the middle that's good. Just enough. I think is, Kaden Dana is like an interesting starting pitcher that's close. They only have one 50 future value

and that's not even outstanding. You know, the numbers go above 50. You know, it's not, 50 is like, they have one good prospect according to fan graphs in Nelson Rada who's 18 and has a 79 WRC plus at AA. Of course, you adjust that. Yeah, he's at AA. Because he's so young.

He's already at AA. An 18 year old at AA. But he's not hidden for power and so that's something he needs to show something of before he gets to the big leagues. So he's not, even if they have been aggressive with him, he's not gonna be in the big leagues necessarily in the next couple of years.

So you're putting a lot on Neto and Ohapi when there's nothing really else. They're going to end up trading Taylor Ward sometime soon, I would guess, because he doesn't fit their timeline. They're going to let brand jury grow. I don't think Moniac and Adele are regulars. I don't know how long they're gonna play along with this Rendon situation. So really they have two players.

And Joyce is a good closer, he's just a closer. And we talked about how he may not have the strikeout rates. They don't really have anybody in the starting rotation right now that I'm excited about for the future, except for maybe Detmers, who only has like two years of control left anymore. He's still stuck at triple A.

And he's not even doing amazing down there. What are we doing here? That's, I mean, the general lack of pitching other than Cade and Dana, like they are in rough shape on that side in particular. I don't know how they're going to patch that part back together. I think that's where it could just be a constant problem where they're just chasing and chasing. And they made an investment there

and they got Dylan Axelrod and they were upping some of their intellectual robustness in the minor leagues and then just fired all those guys because somebody said they didn't like that they had their iPads out. It really seemed like within even if you hired one really good person or a couple of good people that have some ideas and then you put someone above them that doesn't agree with their philosophy, you're just chopping your own legs off right there.

And it's getting beaten down. And I've actually heard this now from a few places. There's this thing called a special special advisor or whatever like it's usually to the GM It's usually a former player and those players Sometimes even have sight lines to the owners Because those players are often players that made a lot of money for the owners franchise players Yep, those are the players that were there when they went to the World Series or won World Series. So like they, and I'm not saying at all

that they have nothing to add. I just think that sometimes being a good player does not know that you necessarily know how to team build, especially in today's era. And you can undermine a lot of an organization's forward progress just with a few comments about why those guys have their iPads out, why are these nerds doing this, what's going on with this, you know?

And so I think those have to be treated sort of carefully. And this is not the only organization where that's true. I think we're seeing it happen in Houston a little bit. And you know, I heard another organization where, you know, that sort of stuff is going on. So it's not just Arte Moreno, it's, you know, it's Ar of stuff is going on. So it's not just Artie Moreno. It's you know, it's Artie Moreno and some of his advisors. And it's not going well.

Yeah. Who's in the room? It's always the question you have to ask who actually has the ear of the owner. In most cases, that goes a very, very long way. Let's get to our weekend waiver preview. Oh, and this is beautiful. It's a bunch of names that we've been excited about in keeper leagues and redraft leagues and right into the rundown where it all intersects. Sometimes there's just a plan. I don't I don't want to admit it, but sometimes there is.

Let's start with Joey Bart today because if I wasn't playing auto new, I don't know if I wasn't playing keeper leagues. I got him in my other keeper lead too. I don't know if I'd be as aware of how well Joey Bart has been playing for the pirates. He's now fourth in WRC plus among catchers since the All-Star break. 50 plus played appearances, 20 guys in that list have played that much. So he's playing well. He's getting to his power, still in the ball on the ground a little bit too much. But I'm starting to wonder if Joey Bart

is showing the kinds of skills that could make him a primary catcher for full seasons, and maybe because of his power, despite the ground ball rate, he might actually have a future where he is a single catcher league relevant player, which is not something I thought I'd say about Joey Bart if we flip the calendar back to this time last year.

One of the main sort of things that sticks out in Pittsburgh versus San Francisco, and it is a large difference for Joey Bart, is swing rate, just straight swing rate. You can hone in on the chase rate, but also his zone swing is down. And if you just look at, you know, 2023 with the Giants, 48% swing rate, 31% chase rate, 2024 with

the Pirates, 41% swing rate, 25% chase rate. I think this is why his strikeout rate is down, his walk rate is up, and it may be why he's getting to his game power more than he ever has before. So I think they, you know, just pounded in some sort of selectivity that the Giants weren't able to kind of get out of him. And what we did know from before, at least from 2022 on, is that the raw power was there. He had pretty good max EVs. And now he's just adding the best barrel rate of his career and possibly the best approach at the plate.

So I don't think that Bart is much more than a 240 hitter, but I am a little bit more excited about his power right now. I think I believe this barrel rate. I believe this level of power. And I think if you let Joey Bart play a full season at catcher, he's going to hit 240 with like 25 homers. That plays that's more than plays that puts them right into that range that I was thinking about that, that single catcher league range.

I just looked right now in the Roto-wire online championship, 12 team leagues with two catchers. He's available in 82% of leagues. I think that's probably going to change this weekend based on the power output he's showing and that uptick in playing time we've seen since the break. What do we make of Victor Robles? At this point, I have analyzed Victor Robles to death. Here he is, 94% rostered now in the online championship, but only 31% rostered in CBS leagues.

I trust the speed. I've always liked the defense. But we're seeing these little flashes in underlying numbers. It's too small a sample to circle that barrel rate, I think. I think it is, but it's enough to where you think, hmm, maybe he keeps getting chances, and maybe he's just finally healthy again

after a couple of years, especially last season. But 21 and 23 in particular, injuries were a huge part of the story. The thing that's really oscillated, I think, for him up and down is sort of ground ball, fly ball. Like he's, you know, he had this one year in 2019 where he hit for power. And I think, you know, the years after that,

he kept trying to sort of replicate that. But I don't know, I really don't know. What was the question I asked you in my draft and hold? It was Victor Robles versus J.J. Bladay. I was on Robles. Yeah, I was like, yeah, I guess I'll just put in Robles. There was a little bit of a nudge. 53% pull rate is the newest thing, I think.

Probably going a little too far in that direction to be like sustainable, but maybe showing a wrinkle that's making it more dangerous. And the thing that caught my eye when I started to look at him finally, I decided, okay, I will open my heart. I will let love in again. And if it crushes me and shreds my soul

into a thousand pieces, I will try to put the pieces back together again someday. I saw an uptick in hard hit rate last year, up to 30.1%, nothing great. Best of his career already. Best of his career, and he's nudged up again to 33%. It doesn't mean you're getting 20 plus homers from Roblase, but it might mean you're getting

passable power, and you put passable power on a profile with great speed and a great glove, and now you've got a guy that actually touches all five categories because he's not striking out. That's kind of the problem that I'm running into is like this is sort of working. I know it's a profile that's easier to get in a speed-filled league but he's doing enough of everything to where this actually plays. Even down to like a 12-team league where you're starting five outfielders. That's why his roster rate, I think, went so high in the online championship.

He seems like he's under-rostered. Victor Robles might be under-rostered on CBS as a whole, being below 50%. I would say that in terms of long-term, like fantasy keeper type values since we've been talking about this, it's taken him so long to get to this point that his defense has actually started to maybe flag, you know,

we're seeing the worst defensive numbers of his career in the last two years. It's not across the board. DRS doesn't always line up with OAA and UZR, but it is possible that if he was a, if he had done this four years ago, he would have had a totally different career. So I don't think he has much keeper asset value. And if somebody wants some cheap speed for the rest of this year,

I don't think you need to hold on to him for what he might do for you next year. I would say that my overall finances and net worth would be completely different if RealBlaze was doing this four years ago. Like a lot would have changed for me. I'd be going to the gym four days a week, like all sorts of things in my life would be.

I'd have a six pack. I'd have a six pack, yeah. And I'm just generally skeptical, yeah. Fair. I just have to throw that out there. Fair, I just couldn't keep ignoring it because it's good point words, okay We got to talk about this now you have two other outfielders I put on the run is also like the first person who ever went to Seattle and started striking out less well

It's just dude's a funhouse like he's just a walking funhouse That's the only way I can explain it two other outfielders on the rundown Parker Meadows available in about 35% of online championship leagues, 82% of CBS leagues. I got burned by our buddy J.H. last night, my Thursday night fab league, he beat me by a dollar. That's possible keeper too in that case for Parker Meadows so I'm a little ticked off about that but good triple A numbers during his demotion.

I think the Tigers just let him play it out for these final two months. They need to see is Parker Meadows going to be part of their next good team as a regular? Is he going to be a fourth outfielder? Like, how does he fit into their plan? Do you think things could be different for him this time around? And if you're looking at Meadows versus Robles and maybe even against Pete Crow Armstrong, how do you stack those three guys up in terms of short term value and then your

best bet for long-term value? One thing I like about P. Croft Armstrong and Parker Meadows is that the defense, there's no disagreement about the defense. Everyone says, every stat says, every scout says those two have excellent defense and can play center field. Yeah, they can win gold gloves. Like they're, they're that good. They are on teams that could just install them for the defense,

put them in the nine hole, especially if the Tigers rest of their vats improve. You know, it could be it could be a solution. There is pressure, though, on both these teams to start hitting as a lineup. And so you've seen even like Veerling play center field and stuff. So, you know, in Detroit. So that's the the pressure is on the on the bat. I think I think I would rather have both those guys. I would probably like to have Pico Armstrong at the top because I think his

his upside is the best. Parker Meadows is 24. Pete Gromstrang is 22. And so even though Pete Gromstrang has some very definitive holes in that he is best low in the zone and pitchers are throwing the ball

high in the zone and he's just trying to figure that out. That is something that people have figured out in the past. That is a very common problem. And even someone like J.J. Blede is figuring that out this year.

So I would take Pete Cromstrong first in keeper leagues because of the upside and maybe in this year's leagues because of the excellent speed. I think Meadows is kind of just second in terms of upside. It's older at 24. His big question, I think, is the natural true talent contact.

If he can get, if he strikes out more like 20% the rest of the way, 22% the rest of the way, I will feel better about him going forward. Yeah, that's a good summary. I agree with you, I think overall in terms of the longterm lean towards PCA, I think there's just a little more there to work with with Parker Meadows It's close like it's close enough where if he's a good contingency option if I miss on Pete Crowe Armstrong

I'm I'm okay with Meadows as a fallback option They're both probably gonna lag a little in average, but we're seeing Meadows in the brief times He's been up pretty good barrel rates doesn't chase a lot has a pretty good idea. He's pretty good Yeah, there's stuff there to grow on I just think it's more like it's the best of the three right it should be yeah If you're looking for the more balanced player I think Meadows is the most balanced player of the three and the Pete Crowe Armstrong thing He's 20 20 He's 22 for 22 right now as a base dealer, and he's played all but one game since July 10th.

Like he is the center fielder. He's been installed there because of that defense. You're getting a lot of playing time even though he's tucked away at the bottom of the lineup. A couple of pitchers that are interesting. Tyler Mallee is available in pretty much every NFBC league because he was coming back from a long term injury. He wasn't being drafted so he wasn't eligible to be picked up until he pitched.

He came back. He's still available in 69 percent of CBS leagues as well I think Malley ends up being kind of like the Jeffrey Springs of this week Maybe even a tick better because I think Malley's stuff might just be a little bit better than Springs at this point Yeah, Springs is struggling to pass 90 Stuff Plus says that Malley isn't all the way back but one thing that's nice is he's always located the ball really well and that came through even in his first start. And given the fact that his V-Lo was decent in his

first start back, 92-3 after 92-6 last year, I'm willing to put sort of a 50 to $100 bid down maybe out of a thousand on Molly. But I do want to see a little bit more Velo going forward. And if he stays at this stuff level and this Velo level the rest of the year, he's not necessarily going to be like a top 30, top 40 pitcher for me in rankings to begin next season. Yeah, it's a good time for him to try and iron some things out here though in the final two months. Has the two-step at Boston home against the twins so that might be enough. If you're chasing volume you got to take that chance. You have to get them now. You usually stash them. You're gonna have to make the move now because he's gonna jump. I just got burned on a spring's two-step.

Yeah well hey maybe you can then do it. I'm in the middle of being burned on it. Double down see if you can just undo it with with one fell swoop with Tyler Malley. Just keep chasing that, just keep chasing it, you don't tail. How about Spencer Arigetti? He's come up a couple times on the show. I think he's actually finding something. I'm gonna bet on that strikeout rate. Strikeout rate's great. The season, Sierra, is still in the low fours. He's had 24 innings over his last four starts gone six every time out with seven or more strikeouts in three of those starts

Including 12 K's against the Rays last time out on Sunday at a minimum You're getting strikeouts But I think you might be getting more because the ratios have started to turn into very good ratios over the last month or so Yeah, he's a stuff riser with average location, average command of the fast wall and cutter. That's a good foundation. At this point though, your 98 innings in,

26% K rate, 11% walk rate, that's where you should be looking the heaviest in this range of sample. 15% K minus BB is only a little bit above average. I believe it's 14 is average, but it's above average, you know, and with the right matchups, he can be useful. Last name for you for the starting pitchers, DJ hers still out there in a few leagues. He's kept the walk rate down.

And that's been the big question because as a prospect we saw not just double digits but 13-14% at most of his stops we even saw 20% at AA when he first got to that level in 2022. Another little notch I think for the Nats pitching development 7.8% the best that DJ Hurts has ever had at any level while debuting this year coming off of a bad start against the Giants last time out, but what kind of short and long term appeal do you see with DJ Hurs? I'm the most nervous about this one. He's a change up first guy. Yeah, 7.8% walk rate. I know it's ABS, but he had a 19% walk rate this year in AAA. That seems like a huge turnaround. He's never even had an above average walk rate in his career in the minor league.

So I believe that the command will walk out in the next couple of starts. I've been trying to sneak him onto some keeper league rosters as a throw in. We'll see if I'm lucky and if I end up being right. So you're a little less optimistic than I am at this point. You mentioned Kelvin Fauche earlier in the week. There's a chance he keeps the closer job into 2025. So I actually picked him up in the aforementioned keeper league in which I was foiled by our friend, J.H. Three bucks. We'll see if I end up holding on to him through the offseason.

But what do they have next year in terms of payroll? I'm looking at this real quick. I just don't think they'd spend on a closer. Bender is still there, but Bender's, I think Fauche's fastball is a little bit better than Bender's. They both have really good bendy pitches. Right. I think with Peter Bendix running that team,

especially trying to imagine them being more like the Rays, like that's the last place they're going to spend a lot of money. Like they don't have a lot they spend in the first place So they're gonna they're gonna upgrade other areas of the roster and try to cheap their way through the night than one player With a guaranteed salary next year one That is what they call a clean slate and then they have hazel's lasardo hazel Sanchez Anthony Bender

And then they have Jesus Luzardo, Jesus Sanchez, Anthony Bender, Kristen Pache, Braxton Garrett, Edward Cabrera, and Nick Fortes in arbitration. That's it. At least one of those guys probably will get non-tendered. They are spending this year on buyouts. They're spending what looks like almost $30 million in buyouts. Oh yeah, Avi Garcia.

To players who are not on their team. Probably paying Tim Anderson a little bit. And they're still spending $3 million next year on Giancarlo Stanton And and 12 million on the Abbey Garcia, yeah, but it's it's almost a clean slate. Yeah, it's getting really close It's pretty close. So I am intrigued long term by Kelvin Fauche and it's still out there in some redraft leagues, too I just think the redraft problem is that they're so bad right now. Might not be many opportunities to cash in on the saves side. If you want to get a subscription to athletic,

two dollars a month will get you in the door at athletic dot com slash rates and barrels. You can find us on Twitter. You find Eno at Eno Saris, find me at Derek from Riper, find the pod at rates and barrels. And you can find things like Eno's chat on the site as well, which is about to begin as we wrap up this recording. Thanks to our producer, Brian Smith, putting this episode together.

We are back with you on Monday. Yeah, find my piece on five starters that have great schedules down the stretch that's up right now, plus how the White Sox might change, you know, different division races down the stretch with their ineptitude. Coming up next week, we've got some really cool insight into what's happening in Boston and Baltimore Strategically and on an organizational level. Thanks for listening