Rates & Barrels - Is It Time to Lower Expectations for Underperforming Hitters?
Episode Date: August 12, 2024Eno and DVR discuss a soon-to-debut prospect pitching at his *fourth* level of 2024 with the arrival of Zebby Matthews on Tuesday, the demotion of Camilo Doval to Triple-A, and a potential suspension ...for Jarren Duran after he directed a homophobic slur toward a fan over the weekend. Plus, they take a look at the biggest underperformers among hitters relative to their initial 2024 projections. Is it finally time to lower expectations for the likes of Corbin Carroll, Matt Olson, and Gleyber Torres? Finally, they look at where the money went in weekly waiver-wire leagues and discuss a few of their own roster decisions coming out of the weekend. Rundown 5:53 Who is Zebby Matthews? 11:54 Camilo Doval Optioned to Triple-A 20:08 Jarren Duran Facing Discipline for Homophobic Slur 23:36 Biggest Underperforming Hitters of 2024 (So Far) 33:15 Finally Tempering Enthusiasm Around Gleyber Torres? 38:44 Where the Money Went: Joe Musgrove Nearing Return from IL 53:26 What Moves Did We Make This Weekend? Follow Eno on Twitter: @enosarris Follow DVR on Twitter: @DerekVanRiper e-mail: ratesandbarrels@gmail.com Join our Discord: https://discord.gg/FyBa9f3wFe Join us on Thursdays at 1p ET/10a PT for our livestream episodes! Subscribe to The Athletic: theathletic.com/ratesandbarrels Hosts: Derek VanRiper & Eno Sarris Executive Producer: Derek VanRiper Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
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Welcome to Rates and Barrels.
It's Monday, August 12th.
Derek Van Riper, Inosaris here with you on this episode.
We have another pitching prospect on his way to the big leagues.
We'll take a look at Zebi Matthews.
We'll introduce you to the latest call up that we'll be chasing onto rosters probably
next weekend because many people could not add Zevi Matthews to the roster this weekend. We have a closer demotion in San Francisco
that took place as the weekend was getting underway. Camilo Deval at
AAA right now will dig into why take a look at his long-term outlook. Eno pulled
up a report of some underperformers, hitters who have underperformed projections
this year will look at why things are going wrong for those players.
Now that we're in nearly the midpoint of August, it's going to happen just a couple of days.
I think we can maybe start to adjust our expectations for those players a little bit.
We've probably seen enough to lower expectations in that group.
We've also got where the money went and some adjustments we made to our own
rosters this weekend.
If you're not already a member of our Discord, join the link in the show description.
You know, how's it going for you on this Monday?
It's good.
I'm taking my son to Snell versus Sale and we're sitting behind home plate and the tickets
aren't that expensive.
Hey, it's the best thing about going to the yard on a Monday,
I think, right, is you get a little bit of a discount.
That must be what that is.
And also, for my son, it is T minus two days
till school starts.
That's right.
School starts early in California.
This is like one of those like, OK, this is the last day
of summer, let's go to a baseball game.
We still have many high school age students working as lifeguards
at our many water parks in this state, so we can't let them go back to school
until after Labor Day when travel season slows down.
At least that's how I think it works in Wisconsin.
I think that some of why my kids go to school earlier and then there's
the private school, some of them go to school even earlier is
so they can bake in more vacation during the seat during the year and
So they have these things called like ski week or mid mid spring break or whatever
So they're they have like a little bit
But what is annoying about that is that you're not because all these schedules are in different places
It's really hard to like coordinate with your cousins or like, you know, your friends from a different city where you're just like, Nope,
you're not on vacation that week. I get it. But, uh, no, I,
I think this was a pretty long summer break. I mean, they still get that feeling of, you know,
being free and, you know, and just doing whatever they want for a little bit. Um, we tried not to
over, uh, you know, one of the things that can happen in Palo Alto is like, well,
he's on this camp for this and then he's on this camp for this.
And then after that, he goes to a second camp that next day and then he's doing
this thing and he's got to do the piano and he's got to do this. And you know,
the kids here are very over-scheduled and we push back a little bit against
that. So both of our kids had weeks this year, this summer, where they were,
they had nothing planned and they could just, you know, get out.
I'm on board.
Uh, consider that our latest plea to one day have a parenting podcast
where we give parenting advice and mostly tell you about things that didn't work.
But I think in that case, I think that's a pretty good call.
Cause it seems like a lot of kids have way too much going on.
Good to keep them busy, but don't make it like adulthood
where you have very little downtime.
That's not what being a kid is all about.
I did make him read, do my older kid
that was at home a little bit more,
I made him read, do Android's Dream of Electric Sheep,
which is a Philip K. Dick novel that inspired Blade Runner,
but also Philip K. Dick inspired like a ton of,
like Minority Report,
ton of movies that are out with his writing.
And so he said that it was challenging, but in a good way.
And then he also is about halfway
through the Fangrass glossary.
So he's reading up on all the good stuff.
I am anxiously awaiting your son's view of max exit velocity.
Because I am souring on I wrote about that in our recap that went up on Monday.
I just I'm starting to think it just doesn't tell us anything.
I'm closer to throwing it out completely than I've ever been before.
But we'll save that conversation for a future day.
I have to tell you, the kids are talking about it like, and when I talk about kids,
the eight year olds and nine year olds and 10 year olds are talking about it.
We were listening to some kids in the next batting cage over yesterday
while we were doing our practice and they were asking each other
what their max exit velocity was.
See, I think you had to shift the conversation to like the upper half,
you know, the EV 50s, right? Oh, yeah Yeah. I should, I should, I should tell the kids that
that that's a, that's a conversation I should have with a nine year old.
Yeah, you should, you gotta fix it now.
Otherwise they're going to be obsessed with that top end number and not the
larger swath of numbers that follow that are probably much more important and
predictive.
I would, I would rather, I mean,
I would rather have like
at least the 85th percentile or whatever.
I mean, that's that's what teams use.
I mean, I use Max.
I thought you were throwing out the whole concept.
No, I mean, just I think the thing that I'm worried about
is that I am putting too much on a player's ability to hit
a baseball very, very hard when it's there's so much other information
out there we use that matters more.
Like maybe it just doesn't inform us of a attainable power ceiling as much as we want
it to.
That's sort of the.
The Cabrion Hayes problem.
The gap that I have fallen into with max exit velocity.
But let's start with Zebi Matthews.
Who is Zebi Matthews?
Well, he was not born Zebi Matthews. He was born Daniel Ze Zebi Matthews. Who is Zebi Matthews? Well, he was not born Zebi Matthews.
He was born Daniel Zebulon Matthews.
An eighth round pick of the twins in 2022
out of Western Carolina University, right-handed pitcher,
has ridiculous numbers across three levels this year.
Zebi Matthews started this year in Cedar Rapids at high A.
He's been more recently pitching in triple A with St.
Paul.
The numbers, they look fake.
114 strikeouts against seven walks in 97 innings this
season across those three levels.
He's given up seven homers, which isn't bad.
Equal number of homers and walks a lot on the season for
Zebi Matthews.
So given the injuries that are piling up on the twins,
Matthews might actually throw some pretty meaningful innings for a team with
playoff aspirations during these final six, seven weeks of the season.
So the question really is like, how good is his stuff? I mean,
as a guy that's going to be pitching at his fourth level this year,
when he debuts,
what kind of realistic expectations should we have for
Zebby Matthews?
I mean, under the hood, it's all good news.
I've got here the stuff plus and location plus for his pitches.
It's maybe not super standout, like 105 stuff plus on the four seam that that could go down
in the major leagues.
I could go up because you might throw harder but 95 6 is pretty good below.
And as you see from the interaction graph that's below what we're what was plotted here
is velocity versus ride and he's got above average ride and above average below.
And that's that's how you get that's the easiest way to get to an above average stuff plus
for your four seam
So it looks like I would say an above average for scene at the at the very least
And then the curve has a 108 stuff plus and the slider has a 121 stuff plus
and so that's
And that's an 86 mile an hour slider
Which it passes the magic number for sliders sliders the magic number is 85 miles an hour slider, which it passes the magic number for sliders sliders.
The magic number is 85 miles an hour.
So that's at least a three pitch mix.
The other ones, the sample isn't so great on.
But one thing that does stand out is the location plus is above
average on every single pitch, except for the cutter.
So, you know, the cutter is a question mark in terms of stuff plus and location.
I'd be very interested to see what happens with that cutter in the in the major leagues.
But he at the very least has a two breaking ball and fastball foundation that I think
is pretty saucy.
That of course he does have something going on if he has those K minus BB numbers in the minors so shout out to Zebulon Georgia where I used to
hang out a little growing up I doubt there's anybody listening from Zebulon
because I think it's population 4,000 or something but if there is what is up
this this is a crazy moment if you were listening from Zebulon, Georgia.
But so anyway, Mr. Zebulon Matthews,
I think has a good future.
I'm interested in him.
Debut coming Tuesday against the Royals.
And the way it looks like it's mapped out right now
is that the twins have Louis Varland available
to possibly go to a six-man rotation if they want to.
If they use Matthews, Varland, and Festa, it means Pablo Lopez, Bailey Ober, and Simeon Woods Richardson are still regulars as well,
then that's the way they can stretch it out the rest of the way.
Any one of Matthews, Varland, or Festa could just drop out and go to a five-man rotation.
So it's kind of an ongoing audition, I think, the way it's set up.
I know Varland came up for a double header and then went back down. So it's really hard to
know what the actual pecking order is right now. It may hinge a lot on how Matthews fares against
the Royals. Settle Ugo going on the other side of that one. Nice spot to debut in the middle of a
playoff race. And as much as I've liked Louis Varlin in the past, you know, he does have an above average stuff number.
But one thing that I have noticed is that he's trying to become a three pitch pitcher
with the Kurt with the knuckle curve.
Before he was kind of a little bit too close to a two pitch pitcher, I think at times or
somehow he's a little bit predictable.
And then the locations on his breaking balls haven't been good.
So when he gets into counts where he needs a strike, he tends to lean on the fastball
and that's that's an iffy strategy in today's game.
So you know, that's what you're watching from if you're watching.
Leave Ireland is the ability to land the breaking ball for strikes. Zebi seems to come with that ability baked in and that might be what,
what makes him have the job and, and the leave Ireland out.
Um, the semi and was Richardson has the worst fastball of the group.
I like David Festa the best overall of the group. Um,
just because I know a little bit about him,
I've seen him make some adjustments at the major level,
and Zebi has yet to make those adjustments.
But not only are they auditioning
for staying in the role now,
but they're potentially auditioning
for the third start in a playoff situation,
because Joe Ryan's injury may be season ending,
even if they go to the playoffs
Yeah, it's a Terry's major strain for Ryan. The description is a grade two
That's usually like in the four to six week range at a lower end
So, you know you add four to six weeks to now add in recovery rehab like that's it's it's close
October so maybe we'd see him in the playoffs. It seems unlikely we'd see Joe Ryan again
before the end of the regular season.
Tough break for the twins too.
We're just talking about the quality
of the top end of that rotation.
Ryan's success this year, step forward,
is a big part of why they've been able to do that.
Let's talk about Camilo Deval for a moment.
This one was a little bit of a surprise to me
when I saw that he was going down to AAA,
but the results haven't been there this year. It's an ERA close to five, a whip
of 161. It's still over a strikeout per inning, so there's still some missing ability there,
22 saves. So yeah, the ratios have been bad. That's worked against your teams this year.
Deval was another one of the closers, much like David Bednar, who we talked about going
into the weekend, who I thought was in that circle of trust.
I had no real concerns about a performance dip like this
costing him the job even temporarily.
But what's next for Camilo Deval?
What kinds of adjustments do you think he's going to have to make at AAA?
And eventually, once he returns to the big leagues,
to reclaim his role as the Giants' closer.
You know, it's sort of a fascinating thing because I mean,
you know, just as a fan, you already know
something from this, which is that this is kind of.
Amazing, like kind of surprising, right?
Like kind of like, you know, so you can look at other teams and be like,
Oh, well, David Bednar is obviously struggling and he's something's going on mechanically.
But they're not, I don't think about to send David Bednar down.
They would be just more likely to maybe say, OK, Chapman's
going to get the next save chance and we're going to work on Bednar
and he can get his role back.
That's that's the sort of normal way that you take a dominant
guy has been a dominant closer and then you figure it back out.
You don't send them down. So that already tells you something. And I think it's fair to say that it
tells you something about the interaction between the pitcher and the coaches, right?
Like, like, I hate to say like, wake up call, you know what I mean. Because you can say you can find out that his extension is down you can see that his his fastballs don't have the same stuff plus this year.
And and and you can see.
That there are there must be some mechanical Pomona to this I can can also see, tell you that swing percentage is down against Deval.
So the league has said, this guy doesn't have very good command.
We're going to wait till he throws a strike and Deval has been in the zone less this year.
So there's, there's a couple of things going on.
There's the mechanical thing and then there's an approach thing.
He should be, he should be watching Emmanuel Classé and should be watching someone just throw that type of stuff that he has just in the zone and attack the
zone and know that you're probably not going to give up homers because of the type of pitches
you throw, right? And the below you throw on that. So that's what he should be doing,
but he should also be thinking about his extension. Now here's a quote in a Justice de los Santos
piece in the Santa Cruz Centro. And it says this He has taken to Deval the idea that his extension is down and there's
something going on there. And this is what Deval tells a reporter. The coach and staff tells me
I'm not stretching as long, that I'm taking that step very short, Deval said through a team
interpreter. But the problem with me is that I feel very comfortable with it.
So they just left me alone.
Okay.
I mean, I hesitate to like label people, but, and, and, and of course this is through
an interpreter. So there's still a chance that something's being lost in translation.
But to me, if I was his coach, I'd be very disappointed to, to get that sort of feed,
like that sort of result from feedback I was giving him. You know what I mean? Like, I'd be very disappointed to to get that sort of feed like that's a result from feedback
I was giving him
Okay, so that's it
So we're not changing any mechanics
So I think that's why you say well, this is a wake-up call and he's got two things to work on which are mechanics and approach
If he sort of I think if there's an attitude shift being like, wow, they sent me down, there's two ways I can go. I have children.
There's two ways that a wake up call can go. One is screw you.
I hate this organization. You know, they're screwing me.
I'm not going to do anything. You know, I've had that where you, you, you're,
the kids in trouble and they're like, man, they just yell at you. Right.
Or what you hope to do is say, no, we're giving you the space.
To try and make these, these corrections, because we need to make these corrections.
And this, this should be a wake up call of sorts.
He could be back up in 10 days.
Yeah, not hard to imagine.
I mean, he's got electric stuff.
Like it's just execute the game plan, make the adjustment.
I think he can make the adjustment.
The class A comparison is really interesting though,
because the big difference for me is that Deval
misses bats the way you'd expect him to typically
at a level in line with how hard he throws.
He throws more sliders than class A, right?
Yeah, I always find it odd.
I feel like when I watch Deval, his fastball command
has been the shakier thing.
Like the slider seems at the pitch he's a lot more comfortable with.
But then he can get that he can get he can beat on the slider
just because they anticipate it.
And it's not 98 and they don't have to sit 98.
They might sit slider.
And I and I just from conversations around the league.
And I have a piece coming about this soon, like
sitting slider is a thing. People are doing it more and more because there's fastballs are being used less and less
Sitting slider has become a viable strategy. This is like worse than ever
I mean he's throwing it as much as he has in the last three years
49.6 percent slider usage from DeWalt this year and I think it's too much because he throws a 98 mile an hour cut fastball
Yeah, I picked him up in a Soultz league way back in late April or May and I thought somebody
made a huge mistake.
I'm going to rack up tons of great innings and really nice ratios.
And I looked at the year to date and I basically have the same ratios DeValls posted all year.
It just hasn't turned around so far.
I think the way to read this is that you pick him up in your keeper league if someone dropped him and you know maybe next year he'll be fine but
if you're in sort of like 10 and 12 and even I dropped him in the 15 team league
because it's like the season is short even he does figure it out in two weeks
you wouldn't be using him for two weeks and then you'd have four weeks left you
know and what if you and if you pick up Ryan Walker you get two weeks and then you have four weeks left. You know and what if you and if you pick
up Ryan Walker you get two weeks of saves before those four weeks and then you get a chance to get
Deval again like anybody else if he comes back up. So and then you if Deval comes back up is as he
guaranteed that he comes back into the closer role if Ryan Walker has been doing great.
Walker throws hard enough to keep the job. He's been effective enough to just be the guy
for the rest of the year.
So even if Deval is back in 10 days,
it might be in a setup role.
It might be more of a, hey, you're back
and you're helping us and we're still a team
that's in the mix for a playoff spot and we need you,
but you get your job back later if you continue
to go down the progression that we want.
I could see something like that unfolding.
So completely understand like the path for dropping Doval.
It actually makes sense, even if you're thinking about a possible short term
emotion. The thing that worries me are Ryan Walker is he's very cross body.
He's a Jake Areata clone for me.
And and what worries me about that is that that kind of arm slot plus mechanics is often can have big platoon splits.
And one thing that you can see for him is that, you know, lefties, he dominates righties.
167-244 OBP, 228 slugging against righties for Ryan Walker. That's still pretty good, but that's the only place that I get a little bit nervous with
him because it is mostly sinker know, sink or slider.
You know, it's the mix and the mechanics can lead to lefty problems.
We'll get to a few other closers people were chasing
in the where the money went segment
at the end of today's show.
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The clip that went viral for all the wrong reasons was Red Sox outfielder Jaron Duran this weekend
yelling a homophobic slur at a fan at Fenway Park after being heckled, which is going to probably lead to some disciplinary action,
including a suspension. I was looking back for some past precedents.
I know there was an incident with Kevin Pilar back in 2017.
He yelled a homophobic slur at Jason Mott and got a two game suspension.
And the way I think about this, you know, is if if the culture is going to change
in Major League Baseball, in locker rooms, in clubhouses, in sport, in society,
in Major League Baseball, in locker rooms, in club houses, in sport, in society in general,
there has to be more than a short one, two game suspension
for something like this.
This has to cost players something.
The Pilar suspension was without pay a couple of years ago,
so financially it did cost them something.
I think it's gotta be a little more harsh than this,
just to send the right message,
to just explain, to show everyone
this is not acceptable behavior in
any facet, sport or otherwise. And, you know, Durand issued the apology through the team
and I don't know, like that's just, that's like one step towards trying to right or wrong.
But I am anxiously awaiting this version of discipline to see if things are changing in terms of the league's
intolerance.
How many games was the Pilar one?
It was only two.
And I don't know what the right number is.
That just feels light.
And I think, you know, Billy Bean, not the A's architect from Moneyball, but former big
leaguer came out after his career was over, recently
passed away. He was responsible for diversity and inclusion for baseball for more than a decade,
right? Going around telling his story, thinking about his passing and thinking about this incident
happening reasonably close after, it's like, well, how much has things changed in big league
clubhouses in the last 10 or 15 or 20 years?
Right?
Probably not a lot.
And I think one small step, one way to start imparting that change is to make it clear
that this is simply unacceptable.
Yeah.
Yeah.
Two games does seem like and I just, you know, I don't know.
There is one of those things where baseball works on unprecedented, you know,
and I don't know that there isn't a lot of, you know,
there aren't a lot of people saying the N word to each other, you know,
and getting suspended for it, you know, so there aren't other
other sort of corollaries can be like, oh, this is what we do for hate speech.
You know, but yeah, this is what we do for hate speech, you know.
But yeah, this is the, you know, baseball is a private employer and it can make the
changes it wants to have the environment that it wants.
This is not protected speech.
He has, he's, he's at work.
You can't, no matter what you think of free speech protections, you can't be yelling this sort of stuff at work.
Nobody could be saying this while being a cashier at a McDonald's.
You know what I mean?
Like you, you can't, you can't do this stuff.
And so it's, uh, it's unfortunate that, uh, he feels that that's, you know,
something that he can use, you know, as, as easily as that, yeah.
No tolerance. That's where it has to go.
So we'll see what kind of response Major League Baseball
and the Red Sox have here in the next couple of days.
Let's move on to the topic.
You pulled this together.
The biggest underperformers of 2024.
And I think we looked at a board like this
probably mid to late June,
because at that point we're like, okay,
these are the guys we're probably targeting
via trade, because projections still like them,
anyone can have a relatively down half season
and come back and be themselves,
or maybe even better than projections in the second half.
Maybe it swings back the other way in some of those cases.
Maybe you get lucky, but even if you're just buying
into the projection, a lot of times you can be right.
This is a group that's kind of loaded with high quality players, many of whom we liked at the
beginning of the season, many of whom we still liked when we did this exercise six to eight
weeks ago. Julio Rodriguez just jumps off the page as the biggest under performer among hitters by WRC Plus. He was projected for a 134 coming into the year
and he's clocked in with a 97 so far.
Still time to write it now that he's finally healthy again,
but minus 36 and you've got a bunch of other guys
that are more than 25 points off their projection,
including Matt Olson, Corbin Carroll,
who was an easy like early first rounder.
Olson was like a late first rounder. Gleyber Torres, we both love, we thought it was an easy early first-rounder. Olson was a late first-rounder.
Gleiber Torres, we both loved.
We thought it was going to be Summer of Gleiber.
Danzby Swanson, who even with a few small warts,
just looked like a great oatmeal-y player where he was going.
And the always frustrating, Cabrion Hayes,
who's been the biggest underperformer of the group
in the sense that his poor performance has been
actively working against you. It's a 68 WRC plus. The longer you've continued to push Kibryon Hayes out there in your lineup in most leagues, the more you've been missing out on
something better in just about all formats. Yeah. And it's, it's hard to, it's almost hard
at this point in the season to pick a guy you want off this
list.
You know what I mean?
But I would say that Rodriguez and Olsen, who were the top in terms of what they were
rejected to do on this list, have shown some signs of life.
Rodriguez had one of his sort of blindingly hot months that he does have.
Uh, and it, and it came in July, which is close to the time he had the last two seasons where he hit three 75, four 34 with a six 88 slugging in July.
And was sort of single-handedly being the Seattle offense.
I think that the injury was really poorly timed because it's during
that time that he's super streaky and should be putting up the big numbers that save his
season. You know, um, and for what it's worth, uh, the strikeout rate has been climbing a
little bit as the season's going. So there's a lot of sort of indicators going in different directions. But, you know, for him and then Matt Olson, who we showed on the
podcast, you know, with with Trevor on a live stream that, you know, some of the
stuff that was going on with him in terms of them filling up the zone with
with fastballs low against Matt Olson. I think that we've seen
a little bit of a return to production for Olson
that is a little bit mostly
seen in the ISO. At least so far in August he's hit 275, 357, 611
for Matt Olson and I've seen him turn on some fastballs especially low in the zone.
So if I'm picking two guys off this list For Matt Olson and I've seen him turn on some fastballs, especially low in the zone.
So if I'm picking two guys off this list, it's easily who Rodriguez and Matt Olson. But if I take those two guys off the list,
you know, and say, OK, pick someone else.
It's getting a lot harder.
I think there's, you know, there's with Paul Goldsmith,
I think there's real concerns about aging curves.
I think that's the same for George Springer.
You know, you've seen Springer,
you know, kind of have a little bit of a bounce recently
in terms of his of his splits.
But, you know, it's it's like he returns for a little bit.
And then he and it's gone again.
You know, like he had a good July with a two seven four average three
43 OBP five Oh five slugging.
And in August he's back to one 67 OBP two 29 slugging.
You know, it's like, was that it?
Are we just going to get one good month, uh, out of, out of George
Springer a year now?
Um, and, and that's, I think a fair question when you're talking about someone who is 34 years old.
So, you know, for me, I'm going to take Springer and Goldschmidt off of
this list and say, I'm not, I'm not taking, I'm not wanting them going forward.
I don't want them in keeper leagues.
I, this is, this is like a pickup off of the wire situation, you
know, in going forward for me. Like if someone has dropped them,
maybe I'll pick them up if it's free. But so I think the most interesting names
are people who are kind of mid career, um, like Gleyber Torres, um,
you know, Dancy Swanson and Taylor Ward,
who seemed to have good approaches who just have not been as good as we
expected this year.
Ward was doing exactly what he was projected to do with the first two months
of the season, had a WRC plus in the one twenties.
I thought he was a by anyway, sort of guy because I didn't think people were
valuing Taylor ward at that kind of level.
And it's just been a brutal stretch over the last 10 weeks or so where
it hasn't, it's like five homers.
Then it doesn't really run much, just nothing really clicking for him.
So that's the team context not being great too,
but even on a bad or below average team,
there should be more coming from Taylor Ward.
I think the Gleiber one still baffles me.
You know, it's for the season of 238, 310, 354 line,
10 homers, four steals.
The K-Rate's not bad at 21.8%.
A lot of the skills seem to be there.
It's just the in-game power is mostly what's lost and he's not pulling anymore.
And it's like, is he just not finding the contact point or has something actually been
lost?
He seems awfully young to have actually lost bat speed
in a way that would be irreversible.
He had 27.
He is somebody I would be targeting in keeper leagues
as a by-low for next year.
I'm curious too with free agency coming up,
the defense hasn't graded out well at all, right?
I mean, he's below average for arm strength,
already plays second base.
I think he's minus five for outs above average this year.
I wonder if Gleiber,
is he gonna take a one year deal
and take another crack at free agency after 2025
because of the way this season has come together
barring some kind of late season run plus playoff heroics
that would maybe push him back
into the more coveted group of free agents.
I kind of think that's the path he's on.
That's probably what's gonna happen.
One thing that is interesting about that
is if you think about a one-year pillow deal,
then he doesn't really want to sign in Miami.
No, he's gotta go to at least an average park for power,
but maybe even above average park again,
just to keep that door open.
But you know who will offer money
is somebody like San Francisco.
He'll be trying to go somewhere like, you know, what really good situation for him
would be L.A. Yeah.
Does another place where he doesn't have to be the guy kind of gets the press
reset while being surrounded by other good hitters.
And then a bad situation that's good for hitters is Anaheim.
So that's I think Anaheim looks like it's pretty obvious place where he might end up. And that's okay. You know, so I think, you know, you kind of run
through the different places he might go. And it's like, there's really only one likely
place that wouldn't be great for him, which I think would be San Francisco. And then,
you know, a lot of other places where it would be better for him. And you have to believe
there's some fresh start here. This is this is baggage.
This is like New York baggage where they have to ask your manager about you,
you know, and like you have to get, you have to get benched and you have to say things like,
I'm going to get better. You know, you know, it's like, I, I,
I still think that there's enough there and he's 27 Taylor ward is,
is, is interesting to me because he's older than everybody thinks. Probably.
If you're listening right now, guess a number in your head. And the real number is 30 years
old for Taylor Ward. And he's kind of streaky. You know, if you just look at his rolling
production charts, you'll see that he has these peaks and valleys. And I've talked to
him about his approach. And to some extent, he's like a guy who just is very selective and wants to hit pitches high in
the zone for fly balls for power, you know,
and it works and in terms of his full season numbers,
he probably should have a better slugging percentage and more homers than he
does right now. But you can also see that during this really bad stretch,
he was hitting like 55% fly balls.
So he's almost like, you know,
one of these like 50% fly ball right guys that like gets too
vertical and just starts popping everything up. Um, and, um,
you know, I don't know that I have a lot of confidence in the hitting coaching
in Anaheim.
But generally I still like his skills. Even though he's 30 and you could put him in the aging, I don't want them anymore bucket.
I think 30 is a little too early to do that. His projections are still good.
His skills seem like they're still pretty good. His chase rate is really low. His barrel rate is pretty good.
I think generally this is a guy that I would still buy on.
I think my hesitation with Gleiber that's crept in,
just looking at him for again for a minute
is just that we're looking at a guy
that has done most of his damage
throughout his career against fastballs.
And now we're in a league that's using either more fastballs
or just getting rid of bad ones.
So the pitches that Gleiber has feasted on for most of his career are slowly disappearing.
And now if you don't have a good approach that allows you to do damage on breaking
or off speed stuff, when you see it, there's not much left to hold onto.
He has one season with a pitch type value above zero for sliders.
Yeah.
So I kind of think I'm looking at Gleyber more as a sure someone's going to sign
him and he's going to play a lot cause he's young and he's still sort of
interesting, but I see him more as like a mono league draft and hold third,
second baseman or something.
Yeah.
I'm looking at him as a little bit less of a guy that I really, really like.
These flaws were there.
I just looked through them because if you look back at 2019, which we know is a year with a particularly fun ball,
he was crushing the ball even on non-fast balls that year,
relatively speaking, he hit 10 homers
off breaking balls that year, right?
So maybe I was looking at that
and using that as proof of concept.
He popped five.
Even in that 38 homer year,
didn't he hit like 10 of them against Baltimore?
He hit a leg, maybe more.
Without Baltimore too.
Yeah. It was the rebuilding Orioles with really bad pitching in Old Park.
Yeah.
So, so I think some of the, some of the appeal has fallen.
I don't think he's like undraftable.
I just think he's probably for Gleyber to be on my rosters next year, he has to
fall into the top 200 overall.
Then I'll take the shot based on playing time and the combination of skills he's
shown, but I think he has to show us more against non-fastballs in particular,
if he's going to be the player that we, many of us, all of us almost thought he was going
to be coming into 2024. Yeah, Taylor Ward, I mean, what if he got out of Anaheim? Like
that's the one thing I'd wonder about. And then the other name that's on here that I
think we've talked about at least once this year is Adolis Garcia.
I think that kind of falls more into the
players who I didn't expect to age well been anyway.
But even in that group, I'm not sure that we're seeing
massive skills erosion in the areas where I thought it would be there.
So I could actually see myself being for 2025 only,
more optimistic about a Garcia bounce back
than about a Glaiber-Torres bounce back,
even though the general underlying skills of Torres
historically had been the skills
that I'm more likely to target.
I guess I see your point.
I mean, one, I was going to point to already a big drop in contact outside the zone,
which is we know something that ages really terribly.
And that's part of why a swing strike rate is up this year.
And yet his strikeout rate is not up.
And he's also been successful with the swing strike rate he has this year.
You know, so, yes, I don't think 2023 is coming back.
But, you know, could we see like, you know, a 2022 with fewer steals, you know, next year?
Could he hit, you know, 240 with 25 homers and 15 steals next year?
Yeah.
Yeah, that's still, I mean that's still pretty close to
what his projections are, you know? But it is so not my type of player and with the steals
leaving this package, it becomes a lot more of the low batting average slugger type, which
doesn't often fit my builds and doesn't, doesn't help as much as you'd expect late in the draft unless you've built this thing where you've like I've got batting average and steals at the wazoo like.
I'm gonna take a bunch of I do all these Garcia types at the end I guess it can fit a build it's just doesn't likely to fit my builds.
builds. I think I'm willing to chase it more with someone who's done it for several years like Garcia when the K-Raid hasn't gone through the roof than I am to try and chase the Nelson Velasquez,
Matt Wallner. We go after this profile 50 or 100 picks later than Garcia is going to go,
but it's a bunch of guys that are just trying to break through for the first time or did it for
just trying to break through for the first time or did it for six weeks, eight weeks at the end of a season.
I think if the price is that low or even again,
40 to 50 picks away from those guys,
if we're talking about Garcia in the pick 200 to 250 bin,
the lower average big masher that plays every day,
I think he's still gonna play every day next year
for this Rangers team,
at least as the roster is currently built.
And we know if they're spending this off season, looks anything like their last one, that would be a great thing
for Garcia to have that runway for another 600 plate appearances. Then I think he can exceed
a lot of the other lower average mashers that we're chasing who sometimes fall into platoons
and end up coming up light in playing time if they either don't click right away or they have to share their spot.
Yeah.
Yeah, that's true.
Playing time safe is underrated.
I mean, no matter what Matt Walner does, he's still on a team with Trevor
Larnack and you know, the guys that they've proven in the past will go up and
down and platoon and do this, you know?
Yep.
That's just the way it goes.
Probably look at a pitching under performer chart
in a similar way.
And maybe next Monday, we'll kind of put that out there
as something to throw out there and look at.
Let's take a look at where the money went this weekend.
Right off the top, saw a lot of Joe Musgrove pickups.
I was a part of one with our co-manager friend of ours.
And I think it's-
Supposedly 94, 96 in his rehab.
Right so if that's where the VLOs at again do we go ahead and say all right let's just
throw them out there and maybe not watch it maybe watch the highlights of the first one
just in case it ends up being disappointing because it just it has felt like for the times
we've seen Joe Musgrove this year and it hasn't been a lot it's only been ten starts scattered
throughout the year he has not been himself so if he's finally back close to
100% healthy I'm definitely interested but I think it's a very big question
mark. Getting the fastball back up to 94 miles an hour would actually be really
big because I've heard from a hitting coach that they're sitting slider against
Musgrove. And of course you sit slider against Musgrove because you know,
he's really pushing. That's his best aspect. And he's really pushing,
pushing the numbers on, you know, uh, sliders.
Like you can count the cutter, which is, you know, it could be a fastball,
but it's three miles an hour slower than this than his fastball so if you count the
cutter as a breaking ball he is throwing breaking balls 60% of the time even more
maybe 65 so that way you don't have to sit 92 you sit you know 88 and you you
know you hit the cutter the other way and you and you slug on the slot on the sliders that are now down to eighty one the siren the carver both eighty one eighty two.
So i think things become easier but if he's ninety four on that fastball then then he's gonna go to a little bit more and open, you know, for the rest of his for the rest of his arsenal.
So I'm really interested in seeing what his VELO is.
I would rather throw him from my bench for the first start in the big leagues, I think.
But good enough to stash in a lot of leagues, just given the possibility
if that VELO is back up a tick and a half, two ticks compared to what we've seen this year,
because that unlocks everything for him.
And the break balls are still good.
That version of Busgrove might not have quite the same ratios ceiling that we've grown accustomed
to, but if he plays like an SP3 or an SP4, finding a guy like that inexpensively on the
wire for the last month and a half, you're pretty happy with that.
It should get you wins too.
We talked about Tyler Malley a bit on Friday. Not surprisingly, he was heavily added over the weekend,
along with Eduardo Rodriguez.
So I'm curious who your would you rather is
between Malley and Rodriguez for the rest of 2024.
I'm gonna take Malley.
His stuff isn't all the way back to where it was,
but his VELO is closer. He is 927 this year, 928 before,
94-1 at his peak. Tyler Malley so just a little bit off last year. Eduardo
Rodriguez is 91-4, was 92-3 last year and 94 at his peak. So he's got further ago when it comes to Velo
and he didn't strike anybody out.
He struck one guy out in his first start.
So it just makes me nervous.
You know, a guy coming back like that,
showing that kind of Velo loss in the division he's in. I'm sure his schedule is not that great.
And then with a 70 stuff plus for Rodriguez.
I know that he's outperformed his stuff plus in the past,
but that's just that's really, really low.
And L. West kind of nasty right now.
We'll talk a lot about that with Britt on our Tuesday episode.
But I actually think there's more interest even in shadow leagues right now in Ryan Nelson than there is in Eduardo Rodriguez
Ryan Nelson has looked like a different guy last 60 days 339 ERA 103 whip
62 to 12 strikeout to walk ratio and 66 and a third innings only four homers allowed
More recently a couple of nine strikeout performances, some sevens mixed in there too.
He seems like he's got everything working.
And I'm curious if there's been a pitch mix change
or a stuff change that's actually unlocked this level
from Nelson, because when he debuted a couple of years ago,
he was someone who popped a little bit
and looked like he was going to be
maybe a solid mid-rotation starter
with at least an average,
if not above average strikeout rate. And maybe that's starting to happen just a little bit later than we expected.
It's so weird. I've always wanted him to to mix up his pitches more
and throw the cutter and the slide and the curve and and use all of his pitches effectively.
And I think quite obviously, the thing that has changed for him, uh,
Ryan Nelson is that he is going to the fastball like never before.
Oh my Lord.
He has a game with 75% fastballs recently.
Uh, and I'm not even cut it counting the cutter as a fastball.
If you count the cutter as a fastball, he is, you know,
now sitting 75 a fastball. If you count the cutter as a fastball, he's, you know, now sitting 75% fastballs.
I mean, that's like early career, Freddy Peralta.
That's fastball Freddy stuff.
How is he doing?
Is it with ride, excellent command?
Like, why is that working?
Yeah, he's always, it's always been, you know,
a pitch that Stuff Plus loves a lot.
And it is, it is a comp.
It is ride, really.
But it isn't.
It isn't.
I mean, 95 Velo is pretty good.
I mean, it's just it's just a weird
ass strategy in today's league.
Maybe that's it.
Maybe it's just like people are like,
oh, my God, this guy just keeps throwing fastballs.
Maybe they're all just like still guessing slider.
I don't know. It doesn't seem like it'll work forever.
And even, you know, in that in those splits, if you're talking about,
you know, the strikeout minus walk rate underneath the hood for him,
you know, we're talking about a 33% strikeout rate in August.
It's so far from what he used to be.
He started May with 15%.
I don't know if I believe it.
But July, this could be the Ryan Nelson that we can believe in.
July, he had a 23% strikeout rate and a 5% walk rate.
He's always had the excellent walk rates Ryan Nelson has.
So that kind of a picture, I think, could give you like a high threes, low fours, ERA and
some wins.
I don't know what's going to happen though.
I mean there is a big discussion right now in Arizona about what's going to happen.
Are they going to stick with a six man rotation?
That's what I think is on Fangrafts right now.
If you look at, they have that schedule thing.
I don't know what RotoWire is saying.
Yeah, I mean, with Gallin, Gallin, I think,
has a minor injury, general body cramps,
which is why he left last game.
So dehydration, illness, something along those lines,
more likely than not.
But if you look at their rotation,
now that Merrill Kelly's healthy, Gallin, Kelly, Brandon
fought, I mean, you're paying enough money to Eduardo Rodriguez
and Jordan Montgomery where you're probably not squeezing them into long relief roles just yet.
That doesn't make any sense.
Maybe you stick with six until you get a little closer to playoffs and then shorten up based on form and decide.
Kind of make it, if you're in the playoffs, make it an open audition for the last spot in the playoff rotation
and just let all those guys sort of take workload off of each other
and be more fresh for October if you make it back.
They are hot.
They have one, two, three losses in their last.
And I'm eyeballing it, but it looks like 18 or something.
Yeah, they're playing really well right now.
And and, you know, Gallant, the reason you don't do a six man
rotation is if you have like, you know, an ace, you don't want to cost your ace
or your second, your two best starters, any starts, you want to start them as
often as possible, you know, that's how we landed on sort of a five man
rotation, but as much as Zach Allen is their ace nominally, I don't know that he's so far
better than the rest of that rotation that you really care
about losing a start from Zach Allen that you're giving to
Ryan Nelson basically, especially the way Ryan Nelson's
pitching, I guess.
Yeah, Nelson's form matters here. And I think with gallon, I
mean, look at the workload
that they put on his arm last year.
And he talked about it.
He talked about it in the spring being like,
he stepped up off of his schedule in the off season
in terms of how much throwing he did.
And he was behind in the spring because of it.
And that's why we talked to him about it.
So yeah, he felt that extra pitching
he did in the playoffs.
He was up over 240 innings if you count the playoff innings last year, and he's missed a little bit of time this season. So I do think part of making sure he's
better than he has been so far at the end of the year is working him so hard,
not pushing him. Right. I think that helps you short term and long term.
So I do think Nelson's probably pretty safe based on those factors.
It also does make it hard from a fantasy standpoint
to time anybody on a two week start.
And it makes it a little bit hard
to believe their schedule, you know?
I do believe there might be a two week start
for Montgomery this week.
Ah, not this week.
But you may see someone that some time soon will have a two-star week and you may be,
oh, I want that guy for that two-star week.
And then they decide the day before that they're stopping the six man.
And they've got off days on Thursday, each of the next two weeks.
So they can just use six and no one gets two.
And that's a nice way to go.
So they got a nice stuff, such a stretch of schedule too.
They got the Rockies to start this week at Tampa Bay for the weekend series for three
at Miami to start next week and then a little bit tougher going up to Boston.
Yeah, I highlighted. I forget who I highlight.
I had led one of these pictures of having a really great schedule.
I think it might've been Montgomery.
Yeah, Montgomery gets Colorado at home,
Miami on the road, and the Mets,
which, you know, that's a pretty good lineup,
but, and I think he misses,
if it's still a six man rotation,
he misses the Dodgers series,
and gets at San Francisco instead.
So Montgomery, as bad as he's looked,
you know, I dropped him for,
you know, head to head reasons and I picked him up today again.
Yeah, Montgomery has been on and off rosters all season long and pretty much all of my
leagues. Shout out to Spencer Arigetti for reestablishing his career high and strikeouts
again over the weekend.
And we are past the part where stuff plus really matters that much anymore.
Now for Spencer Argetti, we're in K minus BB territory.
That's the stat you should be looking at.
And it hasn't been amazing, but it's been getting better and it is above average for sure.
Two or fewer walks, I believe, in now five of his last six starts,
but the K is going through the roof and you just take a look.
I mean, last eight starts at 64 four to fifteen strikeout to walk ratio
on forty seven innings mid three ZRA one oh nine whip.
Yes, the Astros are doing it again.
That's to answer the question. Yeah, they are.
It's a little bit of a schedule issue with him, though.
I think let me see what Eric Getty's got.
He's got a versus White Sox, which I like.
But then he goes at Baltimore and I think they have a six-man too
on paper
But they could also when Verlander comes back and Verlander is slated for August 21
So is somebody gonna lose their role? Is it Blanco? Is it Arigetti? Is it a six-man?
that
throws everything up in the mix.
But right now with Verlander coming back on the 21st,
Fangraaff says Araghetti stays in, gets the white socks,
and then at Baltimore and then at Philly.
I do not necessarily want him for those.
But if the schedule changes or there's a setback for Verlander,
a lot of it changes.
But instead, the Verlander start is versus Boston.
So Araghetti's and the Houston Astros schedule is not actually super nice
That's very different from the Diamondback schedule that should factor into some of our
Discussions or thoughts about the way this is going to go down the rest of season
I did add Araghetti in a 12 teamer 37 to 11 was the bid so maybe a slight overpay
But I think it's more of a,
let's see how it works itself out at the very least.
I get that start against the White Sox
and I overpaid for a streamer,
but I think there's a chance that they either go to six,
trying to get Verlander completely right,
or someone else goes down in the time between,
you know, Verlander's return and now.
That could always happen as well.
Or if they lose a pitcher,
it could be Blanco instead of Aragami.
Yeah, that's possible too.
I mean, Blanco's workload is in just a new stratosphere
right now, so they may want to monitor those innings
for a bit before you get to the playoffs.
The relievers, I hinted at earlier.
So Ryan Walker, Justin Martinez from the Dbacks,
and Lucas Ersig for the Royals,
I believe there's a Hunter Harvey injury
that may have tipped that closer battle
into Ersig's favor.
They still use MacArthur sometimes though,
so, and they had Harvey with the save.
I mean, they're doing the modern bullpen management
and it's a little frustrating from the outside.
Yeah, based on usage,
do you think there's even much of a difference
between Ersig and Martinez right now?
I mean, I think AJ Puck's still gonna be a factor.
Like we talked about last week,
I don't know if there's a clear cut.
This is the guy taking over for Paul Seewald right now.
My order was Walker, Ersegg, Walker Martinez Ersegg.
Okay.
So you're prioritizing role over stuff kind of right now?
Yeah, but they all have pretty good stuff. They all have pretty good stuff too. prioritizing role over stuff kind of right now, just because it's late in the year.
They all have pretty good stuff. They all have pretty good stuff too. So,
and I think that, you know, that's something that Derek Hardy has always found is
that, you know, that the most important thing almost is role.
Um, but I'll add that I do think that, you know,
fastball stuff less is pretty big, but if you look at these guys,
all three of them have good fastballs. So, uh. So not not an easy way to separate those guys.
I didn't get a lot of them because the bids were very high.
But I've got Kopek.
It was like fourth on that list.
Basically, I do think Kopek might be marching towards that closer role.
He really is taking to Dodgerland
and he does have the closers fastball.
I did, I don't have that much money in most of my leagues
but there was a common name that I got,
I think in all three of my leagues, I did.
I got Ty France in all three of my leagues.
And in fact, I got Bowden Francis in all three of my leagues and in fact I got Bowden Francis in all... nope I
got Paul Blackburn instead of Bowden Francis in one of them but Bowden
Francis has a two-step this week he has a new split finger that he adds to a
slow but good by stuff plus curveball I think he's a legit three pitch mix guy now
and he's got a two step this week that I don't know
who it is off the top of my head,
but I think it's a decent one.
Let me look at it up real quick.
But that was my reasoning for him.
I also thought, you know, there's a chance
I get him for this two step.
I paid for him at like sort of streamer level prices,
but you know know beyond that he gets at
Anaheim today
And the second part of his two-step is at the Cubs, which I'll take
You know you don't always get to pick your second part of your two-step
Then after that he gets Anaheim again, and then he gets an at Boston that I don't like and a versus Philly
I don't like so
You know, maybe I started for two weeks leave him on the bench for a week or two
And then there's some you know, he could get the Mets down the the stretch and st
Louis so there's other starts you might like him and the season ends with Miami. So if
if Bowden Francis gets a start in the last three games in Miami, that could be a really useful
thing. It might even be worth keeping around depending on what the rest of your roster looks
like. So Bowden Francis, the reason for Ty France is that, you know, you just took him out of the worst situation for a right handed hitter
almost in baseball in Seattle.
And then you put him in one of the best situations for a right handed hitter in baseball in Cincinnati.
So Thai France, you know, is playing every day to through some snafus I ended up washing Eloy Jimenez into Thai France and I don't really
want to get into mistakes I made maybe. Playing time might be in your favor. It's gonna be interesting.
There's similar players in terms of projections. Mount Baltimore is not actually great for Eloy's
power and you know so this week Thai France is home for six games that's a
real easy start and people said they wanted to hear who we dropped these are
15 teamers so I dropped in the TGFBI I dropped Leoty Tavares for Eloy Jimenez
for 13 bucks. Leoty Tavares keeps showing up on Raz Ball as like a top 50 type bat and I don't believe
it anymore.
This is like one of those ones I just I've given up.
I just it's he doesn't do any of the things I like.
I don't need stolen bases.
He does he's not gonna hit for power.
He's not hitting for batting average.
I'm done.
Justin, Justin Henry Malloy was a dropper for France.
And he's there's still things to like about him long term. But I think in a in a this situation, a redraft,
and it's OK to drop a guy like that, you know,
he's his home park does not help him.
I dropped Orlando Arceo for Thai France and barf.
And Orlando Arceo was just a pick up for the Rockies.
It was a bat streamer. I dropped Max Meyer for Bowden Francis. I think I might have just been
wrong about Max Meyer. It's just not a, the fastball isn't very good and the slider isn't
enough to make it work. I have a trade to reject actually that I received an offer over the weekend. It was an auto new offer.
It was Max Meyer for like three bucks right now
for my Lucas Erseg who's a dollar.
And as it stands right now,
Erseg looks like an easy keeper.
So I think that's a simple rejection
because I think I'd rather have the future saves
than the starter lottery ticket
that Max Meyer appears to be.
The guy that I've definitely been wrong about too
because he looks so good coming out of
spring training, those first couple of starts before they demoted him.
It is a really good slider, but there's just nothing else other than the slider I think
right now.
Yeah, still some work to be done.
Maybe an off season can fix it.
Other drops for me, that league where I added Araghetti, Heston Kirstead went back on the
IL with concussion symptoms.
Easy drop for me just because playing time's a little choppy.
And if you're back on the IL with that concussion, Easy drop for me just because playing time's a little choppy and
if you're back on the IL with that concussion it might take longer to come back just hopefully he's
able to get back and be completely healthy at some point given the severe nature of concussions. David
Festa was the drop for Joe Musgrove in one league just because you know we're we're not sure Festa
keeps the job even though the stuff's really good I think there's a little more present floor and
ceiling for Musgrove. Jesus Sanchez picked up in a 12 team or for JJ Bladay.
Both teams have light schedule weeks, but it's just kind of pushing a little more power out there.
Sanchez used to show us just a little bit more of a ceiling.
Sanchez is making me look good. I think a little bit.
I've been talking about how the bat speed is good. The swing is short.
The exit velocities are really good.
And I just I'm checking my work here.
July 268 302 537 for Jesus Sanchez.
And so far in August, 231 318 462.
So looking a lot more viable recently.
Jesus Sanchez is made a drop of Ben Rice, where I was using him as a second
catcher for Joey Bart.
That was just a $1 Bart pickup in a 12 team league.
So I felt pretty good about that bargain bin.
15 teamers, Tyler Malley.
I have a lot of money in TGFBI because everyone's been
paying more than I've expected all season.
And I'm actually in contention to maybe win my league.
I'm not going to win the overall.
But I dropped Jonathan Cannon for Tyler Malley,
team context being a big part of it
and baseline skills I think being.
Meeting wins. A little higher.
Yeah, just. Looking at the schedule or.
Much, much more comfortable just throwing Malley out there
even in matchups I don't like
than throwing Cannon out there anytime,
even though Cannon, you know,
could figure it out and be useful eventually.
I got one of your guys, Edward Cabrera, $38,
no backup bid from anyone.
Oh, TVXQ kills me that way, dude.
I bet so often no backup bids on my bids.
Today, I won Eloy 13 to no backup bid,
Ty France 11 to no backup bid,
and Paul Blackburn 11 to seven, I got a backup bid.
Now, the 38.0 feels pretty bad when you could've just,
even 11, I'm like, 11, okay fine.
Could've got him for one. One would've been great. could have just, even 11, I'm like, 11, okay fine. I could have gotten one.
One would have been great.
I'll settle for the 11.0.
And then Herar Incarnacion, a $2 on a post bid.
Jordan Westberg was the drop for me.
I think he was dropped by a lot of people last week.
I don't see a timetable for him with that hand,
but I just assume a few weeks at a minimum.
And maybe a little bit longer.
And Herar, you know, is continuing to really rocket the ball.
And in fact, Harar is doing what I thought Luciano could do and
quite literally taking Luciano's time. Like Luciano is not playing.
And Harar and Gernasio is not starting just against lefties.
He is basically their DH.
Is how I see it.
I think there's one game he took off since he's been up.
So you know if you want a guy who rockets it all over the place and has a little bit
of a swinging strike issue that has kind of seemingly figured something out in that regard.
Then you know I think he's,
as far as lightning in a bottle goes,
Hirari and Carnacion is actually more fun
than a lot of other names.
Cause you could put him in like a Reese Hines bucket,
oh yeah, he hits the ball hard, but he never hits the ball.
Except there's just like the,
oh, he had a 24% strikeout rate in AAA and he,
has he figured something out there?
Just a little more proof of concept, I think that you can get excited about with the Carnation
at the moment.
That's exactly why I picked him up.
Just hoping for lightning in a bottle.
He's got a four game stretch to begin the week.
TGFBI plays on the NFDC.
So max schedule, I figured, you know, given that they got a couple, a couple of lefties
going that series, he's probably not sitting more than one.
One of those matchups is against Grant Holmes.
Great story that we talked about, but not a guy you feared.
And Charlie Morton, as we've seen,
has struggled at times too.
So I just thought that was a really good
streaming opportunity at a minimum.
If Encarnacion hits, he'll keep playing.
If he slumps badly, I'm cutting him next week.
There's a pretty clear like fork in the road probably.
And there's still enough feels like pulling teeth
trying to get runs out of this offense
that I think they're gonna prioritize
having somebody who hits the ball super hard in the lineup.
Yeah, and in this case too,
I just needed to get a backup outfielder
because I had a couple injuries.
I also thought for a lineup that has, you know,
Colton Couser, Miguel Vargas,
and Alex Verdugo filling out field spots.
I needed something with ceiling,
because I needed a reason to sit.
Some of those guys occasionally,
I can't keep playing all of them
and hope to move up a couple of spots in the standings.
I don't think there's enough juice
in those bats in particular.
But those are the adjustments we made this weekend.
We hope you had a good weekend on the wire.
If you'd like to get a subscription to the Athletic,
you can get one for $2 a month for the first year. Theathletic.com
slash rates and barrels will get you in the door. You can find Eno on Twitter at EnoSaris. You can
find me at Derek VanRyper. Find the pod at rates and barrels. That's going to do it for this episode listening.