Rates & Barrels - Juan Soto to the Mets on a 15-Year, $765 Million Deal -- Emergency Pod!

Episode Date: December 9, 2024

Eno and DVR are live in Dallas for an emergency pod as Juan Soto signs a record-shattering $765 million deal to spend the next 15 years with the Mets. Plus, they examine Willy Adames' move to the Giants, Michael Conforto to the Dodgers, Tyler O'Neill to the Orioles, and Luis Severino to the A's. Follow Eno on Bluesky: @enosarris.bsky.social Follow DVR on Bluesky: @dvr.bsky.social e-mail: [e-mail] Join our Discord: https://discord.gg/FyBa9f3wFe Subscribe to The Athletic: theathletic.com/ratesandbarrels Hosts: Derek VanRiper & Eno Sarris Producer: Brian Smith Executive Producer: Derek VanRiper Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

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including yourself. Join for free at rakuten.ca or download the Rakuten app. That's R-A-K-U-T-E-N, rakuten.ca. With Uber Reserve, you can book your Uber ride in advance. 90 days in advance. Perfect for all you forward thinkers and planning gurus. Reserve your Uber ride up to 90 days in advance. Perfect for all you forward thinkers and planning gurus. Reserve your Uber ride up to 90 days in advance. Uber Reserve. See Uber app for details. Welcome to Rates and Barrels. It is Sunday, December 8th. What is happening?

We're recording on a Sunday. We're at the DoubleTree in Dallas near the site of the Winter Meetings, the Hilton Anitole, and thanks to the kind folks at the Terra Nova Crafting Company, we have a recording space. So we're making this happen, you know. Otherwise known as the Double Tree. Emergency pod, emergency pod. They gave us a little space here. We're in the corner and we're going to be respectful and not as loud as I just was. So welcome to the emergency pod for Juan Soto to the Mets. And of course, it'll take us at least 45 minutes

to dissect this because it has such far reaching implications. It's not just Juan Soto to the Mets. It's Juan Soto opens up the market. It's Juan Soto versus his compatriots. It's Juan Soto and Willie Damis. It's Juan Soto in all the things that have happened on the Sunday before we even really got to get going.

I mean, we had plans, we have plans. You'll get to see some really interesting guests I think over the next few days, but we got to get to the news. And so, Sunday night, here we are, we're doing it. This is Juan Soto choosing the Mets over the Yankees. This is Juan Soto turning down a $440 million extension a couple of years ago from the Nationals. Smart. This is so much that we can break down here.

The deal ends up being 15 years, $765 million with no deferrals, a $75 million signing bonus, and escalators that can push the deal to $800 million. I believe it was John Heyman who broke the news of Soda going to the Mets first. Some of the details coming from Jeff Passon, Ken Rosenthal, basically the who's who of baseball reporters all getting various aspects of this deal out there. You predicted this, right? This was where you thought Juan Soda was going to go. You got us on the board of the free agent prediction show, which we should absolutely celebrate that.

And the wild thing about this is, if you hear the numbers like, okay, this is 15 years. You can't even imagine what your own life's gonna be like 15 years into the future. But Juan Soto. He won't even be my age. He won't even be as old as you 15 years from now. That's so sad. And knowing the value of the future dollar

versus the value of the present dollar, you could look at this deal today, Sunday, December 8, 2024, and say to yourself, this might end up as a bargain. And there might be a deal that just got signed this weekend that is proof that the Juan Soto contract that he just signed with the Mets is actually a relative bargain. Yeah I think there's a fascinating thing here. I mean people seem to want to go away from dollars per win. The idea is that there are dollars that you can spend on the open market, there are dollars in free agency, and we have win production projections for these players.

And maybe that's a little facile and not the greatest way to look at trades. For example, when you're doing a trade at the deadline and someone says, well, you have to pay him $10 million and he's worth this much and maybe it's not worth it. That's the trade deadline. There's not like an open availability of free agents. This is free agency and every team wants to buy a player. And I'm sorry to say this, but it's true.

No matter what your owner gives you or matter how much your budget is, every team wants to be efficient in how they spend their money. every team wants to be efficient in how they spend their money. Every team wants to buy a player that allows them to buy other players. Every team wants to work within a budget and make this happen in an efficient way. And so we've got this framework, dollars per win.

And if you look at Willie Adamis, other piece of news that we have to bring in to evaluate this, because there haven't been a lot of big deals. But Willie Adamis signs for the Giants seven years, $182 million. If you look at that and you project him out, and you say, Willie Adamis is 29 years old, he's projected for like three and a half wins, four wins,

and then you age him over his time, what you find is that Willie Adonis signed for $13 million per win. That's way more than we've been doing. We've been talking about, you know, $10 million a win. So I was tempted to say, and I said this on social media, that Willie Adonis is an overpay. But what we don't know is how teams are reacting to the TV deal money, how teams are reacting to post COVID,

how teams are reacting to the fact that attendance and overall health of the industry is good and has been good for a while, how teams are reacting to the fact that we have a CBA for two years. And so this might just be one of these things where everything comes together and we get a jump in dollars per win. Willie Adames, 13 million dollars per win. Blake Snell, 13 million

dollars per win. You say Cucucci, 11 million dollars per win. These are all higher than what we've done before. Guess what Juan Soto, 26 year old, who's projected to be a seven win player next year, which is, you know, among projections, that's, you know, he's like what the top two, three player, you know. If you say, okay, you know, aging normally, you age, start aging around 29, 30. If you just give him seven wins for the next, you know, three years until he's 29 and then you age him normally, the Mets just gave Juan Soto $11.5 million per win at 15 and 765. They gave him $11.5 million per win. That is not ridiculous even compared to $10 million win, which was our last estimate, and is really a better deal than

Willie Adamas for seven and 182 or seven and 187, whatever it ended up being. It's a better deal than Blake Snell. It might even be a better deal than Tyler O'Neil to the Orioles for three and 50 because of playing time, because of projections, because of age, because of all these things. So it's really this perfect thing where, you know, what we've got in Juan Soto is over the last three years, over the last, since what I've got here, since 2021, so it's actually the last four years, Aaron Judge, Jordan Alvarez, Shohei Otani, Juan Soto. That is the top three, four players in baseball. Mike Trout, Bryce Harper, right behind him. He is 26.

Mike Trout is 30 whatever. Bryce Harper is 30 whatever. All these guys are old. And so what you did is you got a guy at 26. He's not gonna age that bad. You're not even paying that bad versus the market. And you stole him. You stole him.

You won the back page. You won the back page from the Yankees. You stole him from the Yankees. You had enough money to do it. I think, I don't know, am I wrong in just feeling so exuberant for the Mets that this is like a big win for them? It's a massive shift for the franchise. It's something we knew was possible from day one

when Steve Cohen purchased the club, that eventually when the rare franchise altering player like Juan Soto would come available in a free agency, the Mets could make the top offer for that player. And in the past, this was a player that would only go to the Yankees or the Dodgers, right? Like there were two suitors in recent baseball history for a player like this. So that shift is very real. Now where do the Mets go from here? I mean they could keep adding. This spending spree may only be just beginning. We could

be talking about Corbin Burns going to the Mets at some point in the next few days or next few weeks. Everything seems like it's possible at this point because it doesn't seem like we're at a point where Steve Cohen is done spending. When you think about tactically where this team is at, they made the run to the NLCS. Maybe a little bit of a surprise with the players they brought in this year and some of the approaches they took going into 2024 I would imagine They're not going to pump the brakes here. We'll talk about clay homes a bit later. They brought him in They're gonna use them as a starter But I think they're still shopping at the expensive end of the free Asian pool even after

This edition of soda before the meetings even begin Fangrass roster resource has the Mets at $251 million for the luxury tax. The first threshold for the luxury tax is $241 million, the second is $261 million, the third is $281 million. They lived above the fourth at $301 million. So they have in the past shown the willingness last year 336 so You know they're at 251 and they were at 336 now We're not saying that they're necessarily gonna spend all the way to 336

They may you know it does get there the the tax and the the penalties do get increasingly Onerous as you get past here. But they've already passed the first one, so they're not gonna be like a resetter. They're not gonna just say like, oh, we're going under 241. They're not doing that. So they're gonna go at least to 261.

And I think they're gonna go to at least 281 because if you've gone to the first one, why not go to the second one and the third one? So they may have 40 more million dollars to spend and if I'm with the Mets and I've just spent on Soto and I've got Francisco Lindor and Stani Marte is not a spring chicken, you know, Brandon Nimmo is not getting any younger, I think I've let Pete Alonso go. You think they're done with Alonso now? I think so. You could do something where you ask the Cardinals to pay down Nolan Aronado and just get him as a sort

of medium priced average player that's a little bit defense, a little bit of pop. You put him there. That makes a lot of sense for this team. I think if you are looking at the starting pitcher rotation right now they've got Kodai Senga, Frankie Montas, who I don't know we've talked about a lot but sense for this team. I think if you are looking at the starting pitcher rotation, right now they've got Kodai Senga, Frankie Montas, who I don't know we've talked about a lot, but he got a, what is it, a 2-34 or so from them. David Peterson, Paul Blackburn is fine. Now we talk about Clay Holmes for a second. I just wanted to talk about Clay Holmes because he is a guy who is kind of a sinker sweeper

guy at his core. He throws a gyro slider that could be good against lefties. But what I want for him is the four seam do better. And this is what I discovered over the last few days. His four seam was good in the playoffs. It was decent. It was sort of 80 to 90 stuff plus. And if his four seam can be be decent the comp I have is Zach

Eflin and if you just got Zach Eflin for less money than Zach Eflin last year close close numbers though close numbers what you do is you either have Zach Eflin in the rotation or you have a great setup guy you know who goes there with Jose Budo and is in front of Edwin Diaz. Anyway, you are a little bit short in the rotation. So could they add Max Fried? They can add anybody. Could they add Corbin Burns?

Anybody, anybody's possible. There's no reason to take anyone off the board for this club right now. I think Holmes is interesting because if you go back to his time with the Pirates, his second to last season in Pittsburgh, I believe was completely spent in the rotation. Then he moved out of the rotation into the bullpen

and ended up with the Yankees, made the adjustments. He had a wider arsenal during his time with the Pirates and in that particular era of Pirates baseball was not highly regarded for its ability to maximize pitching. Post-race seerage. Yeah they were kind of caught in between old and new I think at that time. So when Clay Holmes didn't work out as a starter previously it wasn't in optimal conditions so I do think the number of pitches he throws could significantly change you know I think when you move into a short relief roll. He throws like kind of a cutterish slider but like a cutterish fastball. Yeah there's a lot of different ways he could shake

things up and I think that Eflin comp is really interesting and I think the ballpark we've talked a lot about that in a few of our recent episodes, gives him a really nice floor from a fantasy perspective. You could say. He's not in the Yankee Stadium anymore. Yeah, so he's an innings eating guy that gives you mid to high threes ERAs, decent whips, and a surprisingly high K-ray.

I think he's gonna miss more bats than you think, because there will be a few more wrinkles in the arsenal for play-homes. There's a pretty interesting piece on pitcher list about how his sinker, which I think Jordan Hicks is also a comp where you're paying 30 plus million for a guy who could either be your setup guy or be a starting pitcher for you. Jordan Hicks was both for the giants this year. I think they are not, they're not pissed about that deal. They're happy.

I think they're fine with Jordan Hicks next year the same deal. He could be a starting pitcher. He could be a bullpen guy They're happy to have a guy that can give him a hundred innings and be pretty good the difference is Jordan Hicks is sinker is very sideways and Cuddy Holmes a sinker is very vertical he's got the seam shifted wake over the top vertical sinker and Apparently there's some research that does play better to opposite-handed hitters. But you know so I think this is you know I like Tyler McGill a little bit. Paul Blackburn is an innings eater. David Peterson is fine. They've got the

sort of back end guys and with Montaz but like I think they're missing, I think it's Top End. I think you're really talking about Fried and Burns because you put one of those guys next to Sengel. What you need, if this is your team, you need the guys who are gonna pitch for you in the postseason series. You don't need the guys who will get you there.

Clay Holmes can get you there and probably turns the setup once you get there. David Peterson turns to your lefty guy once you get there. So I actually think that their biggest needs right now post-Soto is just amazing that they are spending, it's a $50 million AAB. I think what we're seeing is that they're gonna get an infielder

because Luis Angel Acuna is a good sort of multi-guy. Brett Beatty is an interesting upside guy. They could do a trade with Beatty. Vientos, I think, is their new first baseman. McNeil, they've got pieces. But one more infielder, I think, makes sense. And one more starting pitcher at the top end makes sense. With Uber Reserve, good things come to those who plan ahead.

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He's Matan writes on Blue Sky, on Medium, he's Matan, underline K. He writes for Down on the Farm. And we had an interesting discussion where I said the Adamas deal was an overpay. Because that's like 13 to 14 million dollars. And I said, I'm okay with that as an overpay. Because it's the Giants, and they're trying to get a hitter.

You know, and it's like, it's like the Rockies trying to get a pitcher on some level. They're like, you know, you're trying to get somebody to come here and take your money. Willie Thomas, we talked about, top stepper, leader, you know, guy who has power. He's gonna strike out a little bit too much. The metrics, the defense of metrics have gotten bad. Have you noticed, does anyone

notice as a fan that he was not as good as defense or what did you think of his defense? When you watch him every day you notice mistakes on routine plays, like that's the thing that I think is most frustrating. It ends upgrading out okay over a full season and I think he's still a major upgrade defensively for a team that was pretty... Still a shortstop probably. They were clear that they didn't want to play Tyler Fitzgerald short. Buster Posey basically just came out and said it right away. But maybe not even Posey. I mean like I think the organization was like he's centerfield. He does this. He does this. So they really had an area of need. Adamis was by far the best shortstop

available in this year's class. And they went out and they got their guy. And the Buster Posey era continues to just be different for the Giants. They're not missing in free agency. They're not missing with the extensions, right? So you have the Adamis edition. Wheeling to go the extra mile.

You got Chapman. And you kind of look at that team so what's next for them maybe one of Frieder burns you know one goes to the Mets and one ends up with the Giants like that that wouldn't be there aren't a lot more hitters that they can they can choose from I mean they can for to go this task or Santander you know there's they could go that direction and get some more power, but I could see them maybe doing big splash for burns or they've talked about, you know, not spending that much.

So maybe this is their big spend and they're going to do some small stuff. But you know, one of the things I was thinking about with regards to Matan is I was saying, you know, the Domest trade, the Domest signing is a overpay because it's 13 plus million dollars per win and he might only be a shortstop for two years. I mean, really, we've talked about this on the show about how many times has a guy been a shortstop after 30 multiple times. It's actually just been a shortstop after three multiple times. And in recent years, it's been Trey Turner and Brandon Crawford, end of list.

And so, Willie Donaldson's 29, he can be a shortstop at 29, maybe a shortstop at 30. I think shortstop at 31, maybe, he's got four more years. But anyway, I still think it's an okay deal because they have to pay for these guys. But I was saying it's overpay at 13 to 14 million. And Matan was saying, hey, this is post-COVID. This is maybe even post-TV nervousness.

Are we talking about a situation where teams have seen, oh, you know, the Diamondbacks, they lost their TV deal, but you know, MLB stepped in and they got 80% of their deal and they made some money, you know. Maybe everyone's like, hey, the worst case scenario is not that bad. And so, you know, this seems to be like, maybe there's a jump now where 12. So once it was 11.5 million per win, Blake Snell and sort of around 13 million,

Willie Adonis is 13 to 14, you know, Tyler O'Neill is like 12 million. So maybe there's a big jump in dollars per win Maybe there's a big sort of step forward in what it means to be You know overpaying and maybe the Giants it's a small overpay and towards worth Mattan Put his free agent projections out there and I just want to throw these out here real quick one soda real deal 15 765, Matan, 15, 701. Not bad. Not bad, no.

Not bad at all. Blake Snell, 4, 120. I think he was 5, 180. Yeah. That's not bad considering that Blake Snell is a very sort of divisive name and what he's getting and so on and so forth. We have Clay Holmes, 330.

He got. Three and 38. And with the sort of bonus of maybe being a starter, right? Yeah. And he's got Tyler O'Neill 450, Tyler O'Neill 350. He was on, and then Luis Averino three for 45. I think that that's actually sort of the market for Luis Averino, the A's were like,

hey, you know, we're gonna go over it. We'll get to that in just a minute. I think that that's actually sort of the market for Luis I've written on the a's were like hey You know we're gonna go over. We'll get to that in just a minute I mean Mattan hit on Willie Adame seven for one seventy five is what he had it was seven for one eighty I mean he really he's right on a link it right now And so I so what I'm throwing forth is the idea that maybe dollars per win right now is a Lab or twelve and maybe a Willie Domus at 13 is like, when you see it that way, is not that much of an overpay. So if it is 12 plus, one soda was 11 and a half million per win.

So the Mets somehow signed him to a 15 year deal that'll keep him there until he's 41 and did not overpay? I mean, I don't know. That's a spicy tape because people are gonna be like, oh, 765, what an overpay. Oh, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah. I think people are gonna say,

what about the last five years of the deal? It's like, just don't put more weight on the last five years than the first 10. Than the first five first five, yeah. And if you were trying to project how players are going to age, I mean, Juan Soto should age as a hitter about as well as any hitter in our lifetimes. He does every single thing you want a hitter to do that you'd have confidence in for terms of 15 years, right?

Is there any pushback against that? I don't think so. We did the sort of aging where you're trying to figure out what the aging was and he was actually only a below average player for like the last two years of the deal. Okay, so you'll worry about that in what, 2040 and 2041? So when he's 39 years old, you know what he is? You know what he is when he's 39 years old?

He's like a Last year David Ortiz sure he's like a he's still gonna have like a 350 OVP like this is the other thing I was looking at the last few years of like what players have done and his OVP over the last four years is 423 the only other person with a 400 plus OVP is Aaron judge and then you you're on Freddie Freeman Bryce Harper like it's good to get a high OVP player Because the worst-case scenario is he's your old dude that takes walks and hits 20 homers Like what is the like that's like they might even make the playoffs With a 40 year old Juan Soto and he comes up the bat, he's like a John Carlos Stanton. Pools.

Pools. Yeah. And he comes up and they're like, oh, we have to actually think about this guy because this is the new Mets with a $500 million payroll, you know, because money is inflated over this time. And they've got all these other stars and here's the seven hitter for the Mets, Juan Soto,

who is most likely to take a walk, but may hit a homer. And how about this, Juan Soto, World Series MVP in like, 2030. That could still happen. I mean, still absolutely close at the peak age. Anyone could win a Series MVP anyway. I mean, we saw at the peak age anyone could win a series MVP I am Tommy Edmond and right so I think there's a few other ways to go from here I mean if you look at the Yankees and say okay So to left and doesn't matter where he left to entirely as far as replacing him home It's a huge hole on the roster to spend

Now you have to shift your focus to what I assume was your plan B all along. He'd at least consider the possibility he would choose to go elsewhere. I'm not sure there's a way dollar for dollar to use the money you would have spent to retain Juan Soto to get back to the level you were at when you had him. So how do you solve that problem if you're Brian Cashman? What is your main objective in what's left in the free agent market in a post-Soto world for the Yankees? I mean, they've already kind of said

that they're out on Gleyber. Now I think they're back in, because they have money. Maybe. They have money to spend. They've had a meeting with Max Reed. I mean, are they in on Tyro Estrada instead of Gleyber? Are Yankees fans going to accept that? And listen, we've talked about Caleb Durbin before.

And Caleb Durbin is there. Yeah, Caleb Durbin. There's a Chad Durbin. That's a different guy. Caleb Durbin is a 24-year year old who had a 129 WRC plus at AAA last year. Those are okay numbers but in terms of like hitting the ball hard not there, in terms of hard hit rate not there, he's more of a sort of contact. He's Tyro Estrada. I thought he was kind of a John Bertie, like a younger

John Bertie, a guy that set a fall league record for stolen Bases can probably pick it a little bit at second base But isn't going to make a lot of hard contact so and if you let Soto go and you're and you're playing Soto You're not you know have so it anymore, and you're playing Durbin at second, and you're playing who you're playing at third Oswaldo Cabrera See I think this is where the pivots begin almost immediately. We talked about Alex Bregman. Christian Walker, Gleyber Torres, Alex Bregman, and Max Fried. Can you fit all of that into the money you've lost? Probably. Close to it. I mean, the Christian Walker, ABB is 18, Gleyber Torres is 18, Max Fried is 25, Alex Bregman is 27. I mean that's a little bit more than Soto.

That's 78. You know, Soto is 51. That's 78 million. But you might be better off than you were with Soto with all four of those guys. So that was Soto plus the money you had to spend to get better because even with Soto they were going to have to spend a little bit more to improve. Yeah, that would just get back to where they were. I think that combination would give them a shot to be a tick better than they were. They could also steal Pete Alonso from the Mets and

and pick either second or third as a place where we just throw spaghetti at the wall. This is what the Giants are doing. They're throwing spaghetti at the wall at second base. They're gonna throw Tyler Fitzgerald and Brett Wisely. Brett Wisely. And you know they're gonna throw everybody at second base and they're gonna say one of you guys wins it. So if they if they say hey let's go high end and still try to get Pete Alonso and Max Fried. If they get Pete Alonso and Max Fried you know I, I think, you know, that alone is sort of close.

That is actually the $50 million. So Pete Alonso and Max Fried. And then maybe there's one more infielder. So yeah, Pete Alonso. So let's take three of the four. Pete Alonso, Max Fried, and one of Bregman or Torres. That makes sense because then the other position is the Oswaldo Cabrera, Chad Durbin, you know, mix and match, figure it out position.

They still, you know, they still have DJ LeMay. Yes they do. So, so he's more likely to be able to play second than third. I think his third base work was pretty poor last year. So I think if I'm going to pick, that's what I picked. If I like, if I run the gamut dude, I get some, some you know what it maybe undoes some of my name that dude work. Yeah, maybe I'll look into that Could I get some name that dude?

credit for Naming all the free agents of the Yankees you want to turn all the segments of the show into like a decathlon so the one The events you're bad show into like a decathlon so the one the events you're bad at but I did try I already tried to give them a Domest I've already lost but you know the idea is that the Yankees will turn to something I don't know you know Bregman you know doesn't hit the ball hard and they like to hit the ball hard guys so I don't know if it's Bregman but you know they turned away from Gleyber Torres and they would have to turn back to him because there is not that much on this market if

you turn away from these guys it's Jurriksen Profar and Teoscar and Santander and those are not guys I don't think that the Yankees really want to sink a lot of money into so the only other option if you don't do this if the Yankees is a reset mm-hmm and Yankees fans hate nothing more. I think than the word reset I think getting a taste of being back in the World Series Especially and then having this happen is a little extra cruel for the fans I've been waiting on it for a little while even a little taste of the idea that they would trade for a Bellinger Yeah, sort of take on a 25 million dollar contracts a little bit underwater well here's what I was

he play for you first or center on that team he's gonna play first on other teams he could play center who's playing center you paint judges and they're gonna keep playing judge and center it's also because it's because of the crowding in the outfield though too hmm right I think think you're probably going to end up in a spot. You've got to play Stanton somewhere. You've got to, well, you've got to keep Stanton as a DH. Now that Soto's gone, I guess you've got a little more flexibility. You could move Judge.

Yeah, and you know what, on that team, maybe Bellinger does play centerfield. So you could do Bellinger, Soto, and Fried. That could be a sort of, hey, we're trying to win back the back page. Yeah, but they lost the back page and the front page in this instance. The back page. I mean, you can't let this happen. And the scenes when you're in,

wherever the winter meetings are, we're in Dallas this year. Wherever we are. No, I know where we are right now. No, no, no, I mean, you can go outside, you have no idea where you are. Well, that's just this particular pocket of this particular pocket of this

particular city. But, so we're out for dinner and this happens a lot at the winter meetings and the place just clears out. We're at the rodeo goat across from our hotel. All of a sudden you look up and there's like ten people still left in a place that had two hundred people in it. Nick Bacoro, the Arizona Diamond Diamondbacks writer did not have to leave he was unfazed Bothered by the news nothing to me I'm having a great time. I have no responsibilities right now I'm gonna stay right here in this lovely establishment and you to enjoy a beer And everybody else has had to go running off to read the right or do a podcast or merge podcast

Yeah, I mean emergency podcasts are fun. What I want is I want the rest of the free agents more so than usual to fly off the board in the next three days, Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, while we're in Dallas because then. Talk about the Yankees, they're gonna be like hey. I think it'll light a fire for the rest of the offseason for a lot of trade activity right I think that they're gonna see more trades this winter I think the the fact that teams are spending as

aggressively as they are means there are a lot of teams that are interested they're ready you're not bidding against yourself for these players that's how these numbers are coming out this way so there are plenty of teams looking to make upgrades yeah I, I mean, maybe it becomes more likely because the lights always been chopping them and you know, nobody's interested, but now, hey, I could use a center fielder.

I think it's good news if you, some money in my pocket. If you're not in a situation where everyone knows you have to cut payroll. It seems that the Cubs are up against some kind of internal rickets imposed spending limit where they want to move money. So I think the Bellinger leverage is limited. The Twins look like they're in a spot to pare down their payroll. I think the Braves feel like

they have to be sort of neutral. They traded Solerre away for nothing just to sort of maybe open up something else to be able to spend. Also tough to roster Jorge Soler and Marcel Azuna together and play one of those guys in the outfield on a regular basis. So I think that had something to do with it. I think the Phillies trade of Alex Balm. So Alex Balm is a big trade chip that people are talking about. I think the idea is sort of that the Phillies feel like they want to add but they don't

know how much money they have So there's there's there are some some chips They're gonna gonna change change here the the Dodgers though seem to just have money. They're just like we have money Michael Conforto to the Dodgers for 1 and 17 is interesting because Everything on Conforto's page if you cover over his age age and you don't look at the fact that he's 31, you would say, oh wow, look at that, his second best max EV of his career, the second best barrel rate of his career, the second best hard hit rate of his career, all of these things show that he's maybe been a guy that his shoulder got better. And if you look at the home away splits last year, 17 home runs on the road with a.253

average. Three home runs at home! That is such a hard place for lefties to play. And what we're hearing, reported wise, is that Michael Conforto does not mean that the Dodgers are out on Teasca or Hernandez. So the Dodgers may just be the rich getting richer. We may see an outfield that is Edmund, Conforto, Páez, Teasca and you know just you know it's four for four for four three days you know you know four for you know they're just

going to alternate. I mean there are some lefty righty combos you can do there. Edmund can play short some. So it doesn't it's not an impossible idea. I mean when the Yankees were the Death Star they signed DJ Lee Mayhew to be their fourth outfielder and it worked for a couple years. So this is a little bit similar to that where Conorto is the fourth outfielder for 17 million dollars But it probably makes sense. He's probably more like a platoon third guy Did you see the YouTube comment that scolded us for calling the Dodgers the Death Star and how they can't be a Death Star? Because the Death Star is you know like a place I? Thought it was great. I think it was tongue-in-cheek

I enjoy that's a that's a I mean it's a good point yes I mean I have LA is a place yeah LA actually looks like a dog already fly into it it just goes on the dodgers are a team yeah okay yeah I got it I got it right but okay but the main point is that the Dodgers, at least until maybe the Mets landed Soto, were running away with the common enemy of baseball. You could see and hear gripes, complaints, frustrations with the Dodgers going out, doing whatever they want, getting whoever they wanted. And now I think there's at least one other team in the mix right now

That's doing something similar with the Mets doing what the Mets are doing 330 million last year 330 million Tyler O'Neil to the Orioles surprised me three three year deal forty nine and a half million Okay, the terms are reasonable based on what many people might have expected Maybe it's a slight overpay depending on how much you think you can play But this seems like it would eliminate the possibility of Anthony Santander going back also brings up What is Heston Kirstad doing on this team?

I can't figure out why they added in this particular part of the roster. I mean, maybe they really liked Tyler O'Neil. That's obviously part of the answer. Maybe Cedric Mullins is not gonna start next year. Back on thin ice. Yeah, I mean Colton Kouser back to center. Hirst and Kersad plays right. I think some of the defensive numbers are bad. I posited on social media that maybe Hirst and Kersad

is headed for first. But we had a couple Orioles fans who said he's terrible at first. So I just think generally he's like a 110 WRC projected guy, kind of a lefty. If you have a 110 projection as a lefty, then you probably have a below average projection against lefties. So you're kind of a platoon guy and his defensive numbers haven't been good. So you bring in Tyler O'Neill as a right-hander and you soften your you basically this is a little bit like what you've been talking about. You add to a strength. You add Michael Conforto and Talis Kirkendales. You add DJ LeMahieu to an infield. You add Heston Kerstad and you say

you know what if Cedric Mullins craps out, Kauser is our center fielder and Kerstad and you say, you know what, if Cedric Mullins craps out, Kausler is our center fielder and Kerstad is our right fielder. If Tyler Neal is hurt, Kerstad plays left. You know, so I think it's making a strength better. It's not a bad idea. I like Tyler Neal as a player. He's very athletic, hits the ball super hard, and they're changing the right field wall. The left field wall. The left field wall. Which is really good timing for signing a right-handed power hitter. I think

the next signing, if the Orioles have one, has to be a starting pitcher. I still maintain that Burns makes so much sense for this team. They have Eflin Rodriguez, Kramer, Povich, Suarez. What they're missing is a top of the line guy. If they're not in on Fried and Burns, then I think this is too much of a penny pitching enterprise than they should be. Because this lineup now, it's stacked everywhere. They have multiples at every spot.

They're good. They are good No matter what somebody could get hurt and they'd be good and they even have Jackson Holliday who nobody knows if he's any good And he's just a part of the team So I think you know this team is begging for a top-of-the-line starter Do you think Kirstad could get enough playing time as a DH even though he's still relatively young to be a big side platoon DH Could they use him the way the Diamondbacks used Jack Peterson in? 2024 I mean do you think you get an impact that's similar from him if you commit that amount of playing time to him and then Take this defense out of the equation. I

Think you know if we're talking fancy right now real quick as a sidebar and we you know, talk about playing time, I think what we've got here is a Ryan Mount Castle, Ryan O'Hern, Heston Kirstad dog pile. And there's going to be a winner and a loser here. And Ryan O'Hern has had done some good things, but he's 31. 31 and you know at a 118 119 WRC plus as a lefty with weird sort of up and down bad ball stats I think they're saying this may not happen again next year and then we have Ryan Mountcastle who's a righty who at times is losing his playing time against righties and has a 112 WRC projection and then you have Hesse Kursa has 110 WRC projections.

You have three guys who could be 10% living in the league average. And you're basically saying two of them are gonna work out. I actually, right now, this is embarrassing for me because I should be able to tell you who's gonna win this. But I don't know. Because Kursad strikes out the most of the three,

but he's the youngest. You know, Rauner Hearn has the least amount of pedigree and would be the easiest to bet against. You know, but he's the lefty. You know, I mean, if I was going to put forth to you that you are in the end game, not the end game, but you're in the deeper parts of a draft and hold and you're like, you right now pick, you gotta pick Mount Castle or Hearn or Heston Kursad right now with your next pick. I think I'm taking Mount Castle of all of them. Yeah.

Because I think if he's not, if he's not playing a lot for Baltimore, he gets traded. He's playing somewhere else. But he's the righty. Yeah, but look at the track record. Has Ryan Mountcastle ever been a below league average hitter? What's his career WRC plus, like a 113? 112. 112.

Pretty good. That's pretty good. He wasn't looking for the record I was. Yeah. I can't see after 6 PM. Please don't take my driver's license away. But he's a right-hander. I don't know.

And he was losing time last year. I don't think you're getting a windfall back in trade, but when I look at this depth chart now, they are crowded. They added Gary Sanchez too, which doesn't mean bad things for Adley Rutchman. It just means there's one more guy. Sanchez, we talked about throughout 2024,

is a better defender than he was given credit for during his time with the Yankees. There have been some long-term improvements there we saw that in his time in Milwaukee we saw it even prior to that so I think that means Adley Rutchman gets occasional run at the DH spot which has happened before too so they're not going to clog the DH with someone who's getting every day playing time. They're gonna float that spot a lot. And that gives me a sense that maybe there's one extra first base outfield option on this depth chart they're gonna try and bundle up in a trade and turn it into something else

that helps on the pitching side. Maybe it's Kirstead. Maybe he gets the most back in a trade. That would absolutely make sense. I think there'd be plenty of teams interested. Maybe most amount of years of control, maybe. But I don't, like, is the who's who's the starting pitcher? For a rebuilding type squad. We can't there's no more Marlins. There's no more Marlins to trade away

We tried for years and even even like they already got Trevor Roger even the brief Kim Ang era You look to that team you're like they have a lot pitching, but they don't necessarily have to trade it. We tried. At this point, I don't think they actually have a lot of pitching anymore. I think because of all the injuries they've suffered in the past year plus, they would be a little more cautious about trading that pitching away. The pirates, would they trade a pitcher for a hitter? They seemed willing to do that.

How about this? How about if you are the White Sox, instead of trading with the Dodgers and possibly getting dunked on again in a Garrett Crochet deal, How about you, the Orioles, you call about Garrett Crochet? Asson Kersad, and Melovis. Could you get Jackson Holliday also? No, you could not. Really? You don't think so? I'd rather trade with the Orioles than the Dodgers if I'm Chris Getz.

The Scuttlebutt? The Scuttlebutt has been that the Red Sox are supposedly in on crochet, but they were also supposedly in on Soto. And what if they say, well, we didn't spend the cash on Soto. So let's not spend the prospects on Crochet, and let's spend the cash on Burns or Fried. I mean, that as a team, if you look at teams that need pitching, I would love to give the Red Sox a top-end pitcher. That's why all these sort of dominoes start to fall. The money is gone.

The biggest money is gone. And if you look at what's left in the free agent market, it's only sort of, I think the biggest number we're going to get is maybe a 180. I just read it once a 200. I don't know if you're going to give them that. Corbin Burns, the crowd source at Fangrass was 180 for six. Maybe he'll get over 200. Seven for 210 might be possible. I think the AAV's about right, I think 30 million a year is what it's gonna take and maybe it's seven for 210

with an opt out after four years or something. You had like 700 million jangling in your pocket for Soto and you were like, man, we could use a starter pitcher. I want those pants. Yeah, I would like to have 700 million on my pants. But I think you could also just be like, well, let's give 200 million to Burns. So if I was the Red Sox, I don't think that would pivot to like Bregman and pushing Devers to a place that I don't know where to put him.

And Gleyber Torres, when I have multiple options at second base, I think the Red Sox pivot is fairly obviously towards pitching. So I think the Reds, I would say the Red Sox win free to Burns. That's sort of where I would see from here. I mean, I don't know. I forget who I gave Burns to. I gave Burns back to the Baltimore. So Baltimore's, but those three teams are going to think to be the biggest because the Yankees, you know, they have a full starting rotation. They don't need to throw that money out they could they could go to sort of Bregman Torres Alonso or something they could they could spread that money among hitters I don't think there's like the same like hey we want the Yankees need

is a big ends starting pitcher they could use one but like the Red Sox and Orioles like needed more than most yeah I think the desperation of other clubs seeking that kind of pitching will probably Steer those guys elsewhere as far as the Yankees go and I think Now having lost Soto the focus is going to be on bats as it should be I mean it makes more sense like fill in what you need Some interesting facts coming in here producer Brian Smith is here in Dallas with us We're never all in the same place. This is actually a ton of fun.

We're at the same table right now. We're all sitting at the same table. This happens like once a year. And they're texting each other, I'm jealous. I mean, what's going on? He's just, he's helping me. Yeah. So the Juan Soto deal, 765 million is worth more

than what 22 of Major League Baseball's principal owners paid for their franchises. Oh. According to baseball reference. that is so tasty. So yeah, now Juan Soto definitely has more money than Bob Castellini, which makes me feel really good. We had a user question, or a Discord question at one point, was like, could someone give Soto ownership points?

And I think the answer is yes, because I'm pretty sure this happened. I think, like, did Messi get, I think he got some points maybe in the, in the Inter Miami. But also, if you give him $750 million, like, isn't he really like a, like, he can go buy whatever he wants with it. Yeah, he could be an owner at the end of it. I mean, we're seeing with A-Rod is, you can be an owner at the end of it. I mean, we're seeing with A-Rod as like trying to be an owner of the Minnesota Tumor Wolves and like

you know, Jeter was actually... You should see how that's going by the way. That's not going well. You should Google that one if you want to chuckle about something. Check out how A-Rod's foray into ownership of the T-Wolves is going. We got another signing that happened which is probably the most surprising of all. The Clay Holmes starting with the Mets is a surprise

and I would even argue that Tyler O'Neill going to the Orioles was a bit of a surprise but Luis Severino and we hit it at this on our last episode when Brett Rooker joined us the episode with Trevor May. Luis Severino got three years, which is not a surprise. Most projections, including the one from Tim Britton, had him getting three years, but $67 million for Luis Severino, which first off, good for Luis Severino, happy for him. We were absolutely sure when we talked about the A's playing in Sacramento for at least the next three years, that that was going to be a massive problem for them in free agency. For them to get better via free agency, we thought pillow contracts, veterans that didn't

have a lot of good options. It's surprising to see them make a move like this in the sense of they got one, they got an impactful pitcher, but by most projections, they overpaid by 15 million or more over the life of that contract, which again, good for Luis Severino. We know players coming up pre-arm through arbitration are typically heavily underpaid,

so he's picking that money back. My question for you, in thinking about Sacramento and how it's gonna play different from Oakland it's gonna be at least like a neutral big league park as Brent Rooker suggested on our show that posted up on Sunday Severino's strikeout rate was climbing over the second half of the season. Did you see anything that changed with his pitch mix with his stuff or his command, that helps to explain the addition of whiffs as the season rolled along. Because he turned into the more interesting version of Luis Sevrino that I was hoping

to get all season. It just only happened for the last three months or so. Yeah, I mean, one thing I've seen is that in the revamp of Stuff Plus, his Stuff Plus went up. I mean, one thing I've seen is that in the revamp of Stuff Plus, his Stuff Plus went up. Another thing that's interesting is that from August 1 on, his Stuff Plus was higher, 113 Stuff Plus versus 107 for the year. So he definitely improved his foreseam as the season went on.

I think he threw a little bit more of his sweeper and his change-up was much better in the second half. What's weird though is if you look at Severino's overall stats and you say, oh he threw the sweeper and he had out of the sinker and you know he did this. He struck out 7.96 batters per 9 in 2023. He struck out 7.96 batters per 9 in 2024. He walked 3.4 per 9 in 2023. He walked basically 3.0 per 9 in 2024. All of these things where you're like, oh, K minus BB and stuff, they were about the same in the two years.

The only thing is he didn't get his face smashed in anymore. He had like a 2.3 home runs per nine in 2023 in the Yankee Stadium and a 1.14 in New York where home runs are suppressed a little bit. He had a 330 babbit, but then he went to a 280 babbit. It's very tempting using old school metrics to say, ah, to say I don't know dude it was kind of the park and and then if you look at what the market was doing I think the market you know there were rumors the rumors were Walker Bueller's going to the days I think the Walker Bueller got an

offer from the A's and the other rumor was who was the other rumor that the A's gave an offer. Jack Flaherty? To Manaya. Manaya? Manaya reunion. Scuttlebutt. This is this is this is this is this is lobby Scuttlebutt. This is real production. Manaya was offered this deal before Severino and said no and so if you think about it, I thought when I saw the Walker-Bueller deal, like, ooh, Walker's more desperate than I thought. And Manaya, who's been there, was like, nah, dude. And so Severino, for me, I think Severino, the crowd source results is 3 and 48. Michael Walker got 3-54. We saw Frankie Montas to his old team get 2-26.

So I think what was happening was Severino's stuff looks good. I'm not even saying he's a bad signing for the A's. There's been some improvements to his changeups. The Mets did some good stuff. He could be a good signing for them. But in terms of K-BB and in terms of the market, I think probably the offer to Luis Severino from other people that don't play in AAA parks next year and aren't dealing with the same issues as the A's, the offer was probably closer to Frankie Montas, 2-26.

And what did Matt Boyd get? 2 and 18. So he was probably, Luis Severino from other teams was getting these offers, 2 and 30, 3 and 45, and like maybe, and only probably maybe 3 and 45 because the Royals snapped Michael Wachau for 3 and 54. If they could have gotten Severino for $345, maybe they would have. You know, so what's happening here is I think the A's had to overpay on the order of $15 million.

No more. $20 million. At least, yeah. Some of the ideas, there's an opt out, some of the ideas, Luis Severino says, maybe I get traded, you know, by August 1 of the first year of my deal. Some of the ideas, I think Luis Severino says, this is $20 million more than any other team has offered me, I'm not going to wait around, I'm just gonna take this. From the A's angle, you avoid

any scrutiny for you know taking luxury tax revenue. You're heading into a new ballpark in a new city and you say, hey we've got and what do the A's need most of all? The A's actually have good hitters. Like we've been talking about how their hitters are coming together. have not good pitching and they I I was saying tonight to other people that I think the A's pitching development is one of the worst in the league so if you have one of the worst pitching developments in the league and you're going to a ballpark that people don't know how it's gonna play yet maybe you overpay on the early end and you hope to get lucky maybe

Separino the stuff plus maybe all that stuff is is predictive and he's you know he plays he pitches well at this point though you should be trusting the K-BV a little bit more for somebody like Severino like stuff plus should matter a little bit less to a guy who is what 30 years old and has pitched how many innings? 909 innings. I mean at this point you're looking a little bit more at what's actually happening on the field. Yeah Severino's injury history is scary also so I think that needs to be factored in. It could work out just fine and there are still some questions as to how exactly the park will play if they make any tweaks to it in Sacramento.

Maybe that'll change things a little bit as well. I keep looking at this team, this A's team right now, and thinking if they add one more player on a deal like this, basically for the duration of time they expect to be in Sacramento, I think it's just sort of some cheap curtains for the roster, so to speak. And it reminds me of 2012 when the Marlins went out and they signed Heath Bell and traded for Jose Reyes. Or the first Padres when Preller got there and got Matt Kemp and Justin Upton. Yeah, it's sort of this, come on, like, come out and buy A's tickets, Sacramento fans.

Come out and see the team. You know, like, you know, like these are nice players. From a team building standpoint, we've talked about we like Lede to a certain point. We like Lawrence Butler, Brent Roker, Jacob Wilson's coming up, Zach Gelof, they're good up the middle with Shane Langelier's. Like the batting is looking good and we, you know, I was talking to Sam Blum who did a great podcast with us about the the Angels this year and you know he was very definitively taking the A's over the Angels this year and said that you know wouldn't be surprising they went 500 and so you know why wouldn't you try to get to 500? 500 is not too far from a walk hard bit and

you know this the team with Severino at the top and Sears at second is a lot better than Sears, Estes, Spence, Gin. I like Bidot, but that's not a starting rotation you want. No, they still have work to do. So sometimes you tell a team that's trying to get better not to get better. No, I'm not telling them that. What I think is-

I was just wondering, is that what you were saying? I think the last time I was here for the Winter Meetings in 2011 was the year the Marlins did exactly that. I think it was when they were opening up their new ballpark or they had rebranded their uniforms or something. Jeffrey Loria still on the team. And he was here and he was sitting here

like he was the greatest owner in the world because he added two players that- Spoiler alert, he was not. Yeah, and I think this is a little bit of the same thing he added two players that actually cost something. Spoiler alert, he was not. Yeah, and I just, I think this is a little bit of the same thing from John Fisher. That's all. If you're an A's fan and you're like, hey, our team got a little better and they had one more player, they had Flaherty, they had Bueller, they had somebody else.

Yeah, I agree with you. The position player core is slowly coming together. If I didn't think that their player, pitching player development was one of the worst in the big leagues, I would, I would, I would fight back harder. I was still not back at all Here's a team who's like well, they're putting together guys It puts every you know up there and and they're gonna pop a guy. They're gonna pop a there's somebody's gonna come out a gunner Hoagland and somebody named Basso and A guy named Barnett and I think that guy is that Hogan Harris?

That's Hogan, Hogan Harris. I don't honestly think any of those guys are gonna pop. Just to be honest but you know if I thought they could pop I would be more mad at you but I'm not. I found a note on my phone my computer while I was... You searched for Hogan Harris? No I didn't search for Hoganis. I have nothing on my laptop about Hogan-Harris. But I do have something about the A's and something that will stick with me forever. And I know Melissa Lockard came on the show this season and gave us some reason to be a little more optimistic about some of the returns. But there are a few trades that I still think about a lot for this A's front office.

And generally over the years, this has been a smart group about a lot for this A's front office and generally over the years has been a smart group a lot of continuity they've done very well but they turned Sean Murphy into Istri Ruiz, Manny Pena, Kyle Muller, Freddie Tarnack and Weber Salinas right like they still haven't gotten really any value out of that trade. The the entire I think we're I'm sort of cribbing but the entire For of the group is barely above zero. Yeah, and this was in April of 24. So the big hit was Shea Lang Alliers coming back in the Matt Olsen trade.

They also got Pache, Joey Estes, Ryan Cusick, not a whole lot of value back there. They turned Matt Chapman into Kevin Smith, Zach Logue, Kirby Snead, and Gunnar Hoagland. So yes, if Gunnar Hoagland is finally healthy and turns into a big league starter, that will help them. But I think about how little they got back for those three players, man. Not with that pitching coach. And that just, that to me, those were great opportunities

to make this team better, faster. It's not easy to do it. It seems like it's harder than ever to make a trade like this and win big because teams are smarter than they were five and ten years ago. More protective of guys that are at lower levels, have more information about those players. Whatever the reason is, that sits with me as just reason to be a little skeptical

or reason to at least believe that it will take a little bit longer for the next great A's team to come together. Again, believing that that group in the front office will eventually get there, I just think it takes longer when you miss on the trade front the way they did. It does, and if you look actually at the players that I'm excited about, a lot of them are acquired

in drafts, so Max Muncie is coming up drafted by the A's, Jack Wilson, sorry Jacob Wilson, father was Jack, drafted by the A's, Zach Geloff drafted by the A's, Lawrence Butler drafted by the A's, Nick Kurtz, Nick Kurtz drafted by the A's, you know Shane Lang in the lineup, and something I'm excited about, and he was acquired by trade. And then Brent Roker is a win for them, but it wasn't really a trade. I think it was like a waiver claim.

Yeah, it was a waiver off of, that's more like a Farhan Zaidi special. And I know Farhan wasn't with them, but they've done well in waiver things and giving people opportunities, but they're going to run out of those opportunities. The only opportunity I see right now on this A's team is left field where Brown, Andrew Haar, and Colby Thomas are there, maybe third base. There's an opportunity there.

So, they're running out of places to give people opportunities on the waiver wire, and they haven't done that well in trade So, you know, it's it's worth it's worth talking about and it's and if I was this team they just lost Pike Goldschmidt They're sort of director of Analytics he had different titles. He is now turned into The Michael Schwartze role on the Giants. he is now the director of baseball strategy on the Giants. He's taking his ability, what he's done with the athletics

in doing everything, he's gonna do that to interface between the managers and the coaches and the players with on field strategy with the Giants. That's gonna leave a hole on the A's. They're not a team that hires a lot. They're not a team that takes from the outside and comes and makes their team better. This is a team that also needs to be better in player in pitching and player development in particular. So I'm looking for that team to, if they're not going to invest in the payroll, the next

investment needs to be in staff. Yeah and that's the easiest way to get better without spending a lot. That's the part that kills me is that if you're going to... These are hundreds of thousand dollars. You can get some of the best staff in the big leagues with, you know, $300,000 you get two or three of the best, you know, options at different situations. A great staff, good tech, costs a lot less than Luis Severino. I'm not saying you shouldn't also get Severino. You heard Brent Rooker when he asked him about the Traject. Wow.

I don't know if that was on the pod. It was before we started recording. No. That was part of the recording. It was part of the pod. It was part of the pod. On that note, it's time for us to go. We thought this episode might last 20 minutes.

Eno said 20 minutes, I said probably closer to an hour and sure enough, I just, I know. I just have a sense of how long we're going to talk, but that's going to do it for this episode of Rates and Barrels. We're back with you in Dallas on Monday. We've got a lot of fun industry people that are gonna bring on managers, GMs, AGMs. We're gonna do a lot of that, but we had to get you the news.

So thank you very much for listening. Thanks for watching!