Rates & Barrels - LCS Matchup Thoughts, Offseason Plans for Padres & Tigers

Episode Date: October 14, 2024

Eno and DVR discuss the LCS matchups between the Dodgers and Mets, and the Yankees and Guardians -- including the Dodgers' pitching staff going on an excellent run of scoreless innings (33 entering Game 2 of the NLCS on Monday) -- and the Guardians' series-clinching win over the Tigers from the weekend. Plus, they wonder what adjustments AJ Preller and company will make around the core returning for 2025, and the next steps for the Tigers after their run ended one win away from a trip to the ALCS.  Rundown 1:35 Will the Dodgers Ever Give Up a Run Again? 3:21 The Padres' Offseason Outlook 12:35 Keys to the Mets-Dodgers NLCS Matchup 25:58 Lane Thomas' Grand Slam Propels the Guardians Into the ALCS 37:14 The Tigers' Offseason Outlook 49:31 Jackson Jobe's Path Into the Opening Day Rotation Follow Eno on Twitter: @enosarris Follow DVR on Twitter: @DerekVanRiper e-mail: [e-mail] Join our Discord: https://discord.gg/FyBa9f3wFe Subscribe to The Athletic: theathletic.com/ratesandbarrels Hosts: Derek VanRiper & Eno Sarris Executive Producer: Derek VanRiper Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

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It's free and easy to use, and you can get cash back deposited into your PayPal account or sent to you as a check. It's the smartest way to shop, plain and simple. Start your shopping at rakuten.ca or get the Rakuten app. That's R-A-K-U-T-E-N.ca. Welcome to Rates and Barrels Monday October 14th. Derek from Rhymer Enocerous here back with you on this episode.

We take a look at some of the keys to the LCS matchups. Of course the NLCS got underway this weekend. We did not have a schedule that allowed us to record any episodes before the start of the series. We'll just break down the series as a whole, though, as a part of today's show. A lot of drama on Saturday as well, as the Guardians eliminated the Tigers. We'll talk about what's next for both the Tigers

and the Padres, who we said goodbye to in recent days. Eno, how's it going for you on this Monday? It's good, I'm back from Fresno. That was for my in-laws 50th wedding anniversary. Awesome. Congrats to them. 50 is a long time. I mean, I say that as a guy who's reached 15 in that facet of life and just 40 in general. So 50 together is a lifetime. So congrats to them on that milestone. If you would like to join our discord, highly recommend it for at least two reasons, one good people, good baseball chatter to puppies.

SLGS Reds just got a new puppy named bear in the pets channel. Check out bear. Bear is awesome. So onto the baseball. Will the Dodgers ever give up a run again? You know, they now have set a post-season record, 33 consecutive innings without allowing a run. That goes all the way back to the six run inning that the Padres had the last time the Padres scored in that series. Like, if you had told anybody in that moment, while Twitter was beginning

to write the obituary for the 2024 Dodgers, that the Padres were going to stop scoring and the Dodgers were going to stop giving up runs, nobody, absolutely nobody would have bought into the idea that they'd go on a streak like this. Yeah. absolutely nobody would have bought into the idea that they'd go on a streak like this. Yeah. And it's going to leap for some soul searching in San Diego. But I think it's a little bit that, you know, guys like Evan Phillips and Alex Vessia and Michael Kopec and Blake Trinen are actually really good relievers. And also that a really good lineup can have a couple of games where it doesn't click.

I don't know that there's any sort of science to this, that there's any great mistake that the Padres made. I think it's just the the Dodgers kind of did that postseason bullpen roulette, you know, where they kind of sorted through their options and they actually found that they're probably four to six guys deep in the bullpen when people maybe didn't give them that credit and four to six guys in the bullpen to starters, uh, you know, people have won championships with that kind of a, that kind of a pitching staff. So, um, I know, people have won championships with that kind of a, that kind of a pitching staff. So I think the work in San Diego over the off season is to just be as good as they were last year.

Again, the question I guess is how do you do it? AJ Perelor and that front office have been very creative, very opportunistic when players become available. I think that suits them well, right? They don't have a lot in concrete. As far as like their long-term plans, they can change pretty quickly. I think what's different now for San Diego since the passing of Peter Seidler, their owner,

and having a TV situation that's been messy, is that now that they're in this boat, they're trying to stay under the luxury tax threshold. While Peter Seidler was still alive, that wasn't a concern. So that's sort of the upper end bound, right? They were at $231 million for the competitive balanced tax 40-man breakdown going into the season. The threshold for the luxury tax was 237. So that was clearly important to them. If you like the opening day payroll at COTS instead, they dropped down to 14th at 164 million

on the opening day payroll. So they live closer to the middle of the pack league-wide, which is still for a small of a market as they are, a nice payroll, but it's also less than they were spending just a couple of years ago. The key free agents, Jurks and Profar just gave them a great season in 2024, did that as a $1 million player, a very, very late signing that was huge.

I mean, that's everything and more you could ask from Profar for this year. Tanner Scott, who they acquired mid-season, Kyle Higashioka, Martin Perez, David Peralta, and then Ha Sung Kim has a mutual option that everyone expects him to decline, even though he's going to miss some part of April following shoulder surgery. But for the most part, the roster is still intact. I think the question comes down to how much can they wiggle onto the roster financially? They have to create some space most likely if they're going to make any sort of massive signings. So maybe it's more like two or three moves to get to one big addition in the end. Yeah, now over at Fangraphs in the payroll section of roster resource, they have arbitration estimates in.

source they have arbitration estimates in and so you can pretty easily see that their luxury tax number for 2025 is already 231 million. With the cap of 237 so. $3 million to spend on maybe a backup catcher or reliever and, um, you know, a pro far Solano Peralta type. Um, I wouldn't be surprised if there is some sort of trade, um, to kind of shed some money, um. But you know, they're either really long-term contracts that have a lot of money in them or they're players that are useful and they want to keep. So the biggest way that they could shed some money is Yuki Matsui,

maybe who still is due something like $16 million. I think that's movable, maybe. But that doesn't open up a lot for them. If they got him off the team, it would just give them more room to maybe resign pro far. I don't think he's going to get a ton of money given his age and his history. And and get a backup catcher I know he is so good become the starting catcher but I don't think you have starting catcher money anymore so it's going to be Luis Camposano again I believe. It's going to be Luis Camposano again, I believe.

They have a lot of good team, they have a lot of good players on this team, they're bringing most of the team back. So I think it's both good and bad news that they won't have a lot of money to do stuff. They're just gonna re-racket and say, you know, try again. The tricky thing though too, is you try and imagine different trade routes they can go down is they got Leo DeVries one of the top prospects in baseball is easily their best prospect kind of seems

More like a guy you're waiting on contributing as opposed to flipping in a blockbuster You can't rule anything out with AJ preller, but in my mind He's just more in the guy that's so good that he doesn't get traded as a prospect level Ethan Salas who is coming off of a season where the stock has come down a little bit, but we're still talking about a player who was 18 at high A this year. So defensively looks like a big league catcher already. And it's just a question of when the bat comes around, maybe Salas could get traded, won't bring back as much today

as he would have brought back last off season. The depth behind that is where there's questions. Like they don't necessarily have that next obvious wave of great players to deal from, but they're very good at replenishing the system. That's one of the strengths in the AJ Pridler era, scouting, signing players, finding players, drafting, everything everything like across the

board, right? They replenish generally as well. It's just about any team out there, but it looks like a slight down cycle as far as what they currently have in the cupboard. So yeah, maybe it is working a little bit more off of the big league roster, the bigger long-term deals, you know, they're not crazy expensive on an AAV basis. You're not spending a lot every year on Bogarts and Machado, relatively speaking, but I think those contracts are always tricky to move because you're at the point now where even if you still think Machado is a four or five win player, he's post-peak, so it's going to be a gradual decline. Bogarts, you've talked about many times being a guy that of those big contracts, you probably wouldn't have given

him that money in the first place. He's probably even more difficult to sign because the performance baseline is lower than Machado's. But at least like Tatisse, for example, he's signed for a long time, he's not gonna get a lot more expensive right away. So they do have this core in place for a while because they added Cease, because they added King,

they still have a good one-two with Darvish, the Joe Musgrove injury is going to carry over. They're going to have to find a backend starter, but their needs are actually not that bad because of some of the players they acquired still being a part of the roster in 2025. Yeah, I could see them. Um, I could see them trading Ethan Salas actually. Because in terms of catching depth, like Luis Camposano has at least proven that I think is the least proven that he can play catcher at the major level.

Right. So he represents depth. So even if he's not a starter and if he and if Ethan Salas is not a starter and you don't think Luis Camposano is a starter, then Ethan Salas can maybe get you a starter. I'm looking at Ryan Jeffers. And the only reason I'm looking at Ryan Jeffers is that the twins are possibly up. I think they're up for sale and you it's not obvious which way they're going. So at least you want to reach out to somebody like the twins and be like you know what what are you thinking about you know and maybe getting Ryan Jeffers. Maybe I'm loading you came out so you know maybe some sort of creative accounting or maybe getting a reliever from the twins along with a Ryan Jeffers for Ethan Salas and something might make sense. Otherwise, you know, trading for catcher is is rough business. Most teams jealously guard their catching depth because it's such a tough position.

I'm still looking at Campusano and thinking, yeah, he might hit enough to be a good big league player, but the catching numbers were awful this year. I know he was banged up at times, too. But you're talking at or near the bottom of the league and framing blocking just everything you're looking at for defensive value grades him out poorly at the moment. So I wonder if that's the sign they've moved on from campus on as they're even their fallback option,

because he's not hitting enough at all to justify defense that bad. And the carry over effect is massive Yeah, I'm not exactly sure what the market will be for you. Yeah, Shoka. I mean he's coming off his best season offensively Still hasn't put up a two-war season I would suggest that you know the best option for the Padres is to probably resign kind of Higa Shoka But you know once you do that, I think you have to make another trade somewhere to cut cash, you know? Yeah. And I mean, this is a guy that is going to be 35 in April.

I think the market will look at him as a short-term one year catcher. So perhaps they can get them three, $4 million and make that actually fit within the framework of their plan. It'll still be really tight. I mean, they give him $4 million and by Fangrass numbers, they're at 235 under 237 cap. So they're going to be look, they're going to be calling people to see if anybody can take money off their books. Yeah, they have the right GM to actively shop anyone and everyone to make it happen. As far as the NLCS matchup goes, though we're looking at this Dodgers-Mets series.

Game one happened on Sunday, the Dodgers went on a blowout. Kodai Singa just didn't have it. For a simple explanation, it was worse than that though, the Dodgers piled on nine runs. The carryover effect I wondered about for the series is kind of a bigger picture question anyway. They used Reed Garrett for one and a third, he should be fine to come back and pitch in game two. David Peterson came in for bulk. That was probably expected all along. Danny Young chewed up a few outs for them. Budo threw a lot, so he threw 43 pitches. So you're probably not going to see Budo in game two, but mostly the guys

they would need available pitching wise in game two are all there for the Mets. But the gift I think that the Dodgers received was that the Mets couldn't really get anything going against Jack Flaherty. Seven scoreless, two hits, six Ks, two walks. That was a great performance from Flaherty. And that shifted the Dodgers from putting Walker Bueller out there, which I think is a, you know, it's a door being opened with Bueller being

in his current form to the bullpen game. And I think the more we start thinking about the Dodgers bullpen games in the postseason, the more we continue to warm up to the bullpen game and I think the more we start thinking about the Dodgers bullpen games in the postseason the more we continue to warm up to the idea Of hey, that's probably just as nasty if not more nasty than getting a average number three starter at this point Yeah, they I think I had the staff that had 15 guys with above average stuff during the regular season in the bullpen and with those four that I mentioned earlier in Copac, Trinan, Phillips, um, and Vessia, although is Vessia hurt?

Yeah, Vessia is hurt. So he's not on the roster for the NLCS. That's a little bit of a problem, uh, because he's just a really good lefty. And, uh, that, that moves and the band up a little bit. But I think if if sort of like band a brazier and Hudson are the soft parts of your bullpen game there probably you know equal to the soft parts of the Mets bullpen after a starter has started you know. started, you know, Hudson, Banda and, uh, brazier, you know, verses, uh, on the Mets, I guess, um, because you'd, I guess Diaz, Budo and Garrett are kind of the final three. So you'd be putting those three Dodgers up against Matone, um, Magill and Young, then probably take the Dodgers three.

Yeah. The other wrinkle, I guess, is that Brent Honeywell is on the roster. and be young, then probably take the Dodgers three. Yeah, the other wrinkle I guess is that Brent Honeywell is on the roster. The regular season strikeout rate was really low, like 12.1% low. But because he throws a screwball, I saw in our discord, Grant I believe, it was pointing out that that's basically like having

a lefty just because of what that pitch does to lefties, which is kind of interesting. You don't think of them as a match at play that way, but maybe Honeywell is used as sort of an early option if they run into a left handed chunk of that Mets lineup and want to just do something a little bit different. Yeah, I have no idea where this is being picked up in the stuff. Cause, uh, stuff was loves his change up. And I wonder if that's what they're thinking the screwball is. Um, we don't have a designation that comes over from stack cast that says screwball,

but, uh, I think we need one. We've got to get Mike Petriello on the horn. I do love his stuff. And, you know, I did get to talk to him a little bit during the regular season. He said that the Dodgers were really helping him dial in the screwball. There it is. It's listed as a screwball over there. Maybe it just doesn't come through on fan graphs.

Looks like a change up in the data for sure. I think what's funny is that on baseball, Savant, they have like sort of average movement for that pitch type. And I'm pretty sure he's the only screwball in there. So his movement is pretty lined up with the average movement for that pitch type. And I'm pretty sure he's the only screwball in there. So his movement is pretty lined up with the average movement for screwball. Question for you,

as I saw kicking around on the athletic earlier today, what do you make of the Mets bullpen matchup options against Shohei Otani? Do you think that is a particularly weak spot for the Mets? I mean, matching up with Otani is tough anyway, but if you don't have a power lefty, does that leave you extra vulnerable to one of the league's elite hitters? I mean, it'd be nice. I think that they'll have to push Manaya.

It'd be nice to have a lefty starter here and they'll have to push. I think I agree with you that they'll push Manaya that third time through, at least for a Tony and then maybe take them out for bets or whatever. Um, but, uh, that, that is a bit of a weakness for that bullpen. And, uh, you know, we saw the tigers, I think do pretty well with their relieving screw partially because they had a bunch of lefties in there, at least a couple of lefties that they could use. So, um,

for the Mets, I think that's a little bit of a soft part of their belly. And then just generally, um, I kind of only trust two, uh, three relievers in that, in that Mets bullpen. I like Budo. I like, um, in that Metz bullpen. I like Budo. I like Edwin Diaz. And I like Reed Garrett. Beyond that, there's some real questions. I think with Stanek, it's always been,

is the command there? With Matan, I think it's just okay stuff. Ottavino's got that great breaking ball, but they don't, they obviously don't trust them very much. And the rest are converted starters, which, you know, that can always work out really well or they're not suited for it or whatever it is. But the converted starters are also guys that I have questions about, like, uh, Meg Gild, I think could be really key for them because he's so velocity dependent and how good he is.

So if he's coming out of the pen and throwing 97s and 98s, you know, for two innings, like that could be really, really big for them. Even if he's not necessarily a lefty, at least it's a bridge reliever that has some power stuff. Yeah, like that's true. That could end up being a difference maker too. I think the hard thing about- Maybe you'll see Peterson again because of what you're talking about. I think we'll see Peterson after the off day in game three potentially, just because of need.

I wonder if part of the script, you have an off day after Monday's game two, you're hoping to go back to New York with a split and then have a chance to maybe win three at home and close it out, but at least just keep it alive. Like keep it to the point where it has to go back to New York with a split and then have a chance to maybe win three at home and close it out, but at least just keep it alive. Like keep it to the point where it has to go back to Los Angeles. If you don't take care of business at home in the Mets predicament. But the the way I'm looking at this team is I'm wondering if we're going to see

all the flaws we've talked about, you know, the Tigers pitching strategy. If the longer the series goes, the more your depth gets tested. And I think that's where the Mets were getting away with some things that it will be harder to get away with going forward. I think if Manaya can give them five and change, get through Otani that third time, that bodes really well. They could probably use Garrett for another inning, even though he pitched in game one. Maybe you have to hide one of Stanek or Phil Maton.

If it's like five and a third, like one of those guys comes in and cleans up and you can probably get two from Diaz because Diaz didn't pitch in game one and you got the off day so you can push a few of your A relievers a little harder, but it's going to come down to the effectiveness of Manaya against that Dodgers lineup. That's going to be a critically important stretch for them. The stuff that you're talking about is possible in game two, but you also said, you know, you're looking to win a lot of those games at home. If you're the Mets, you know, after you lose this, this first game,

and that's where it gets hard to pull a lot of those shenanigans. Cause you've got three games in a row. Right. That's the other part of the schedule. Edwin Diaz six innings in three days. You know what I mean? Like, so. The command would be pretty bad by that last day. Yeah. And somebody, what it means is that somebody has to step forward for the

Mets, you know, in those games. And maybe it's Miguel more in a starter type capacity because he actually has to go five because it's the middle game of over three game series and they used all their relievers in the first game. Right. That'd probably be some time around game four. I think the way things are tracking right now, right? Cause we'd see Luis Severino get the ball in game three when the series shifts back to New York, but yeah, it's tough, especially the morning after a blowout loss to sit here and say, okay, no,

they're fine. Look, they've've they've taken their share of punches. They've they've come out of a few different situations over the course of the regular season to get into the playoffs and even in the playoffs that a lot of other teams wouldn't have come through. So. They could be fine, but I do think we're starting to see why the Dodgers were a postseason favorite. That's been on display for these last few days in a way that it had not been previously on display in the first part of that series against the Padres. Yeah, the Mets have to, if they can get on the trajectory or whatever it is and just try to get at bats against the Dodgers relievers before the game. You know what I mean? They just have to simulate it somehow because that's the most difficult thing about a bullpen

game is you're just like, damn, this guy's totally different. The last thing I didn't, nothing that I learned in my last at bat helps me in this one. You know what I mean? You agree with this approach though, for the Dodgers, right? They're making the right choice, not using Bueller. Well, I mean, they're going to have to use a Bueller eventually, and they might even use them in this game. But I think branding it as a, uh, as a, as a bullpen game makes sense, especially because of what I just said about the three games series, right?

It's like you delay him to the part of the schedule. That's trickier because running too many relievers out there three consecutive days is a really slippery proposition. And maybe, you know, uh, yeah, you can, then you'll play with the Yamamoto Bueller, you know, toggle in, in games, uh, three and four, because you, you, you, I think you want to pitch the guy you think will go deeper first. Yeah. So you can use fewer relievers in that first game.

I think you do cause you want to have as many available for the back to back before the off day as possible. And by doing, by doing it in a way where Yamamoto goes in game three, he's on regular rest if the series goes seven. Yeah. That's the other calculus that I think you want to account for. Yeah. And then you're hoping Bueller, you know, in the second game,

gives you at least four so that you're not, you know, maybe you don't have to go to multiple innings on all your best relievers, you know? So yeah, I think that's, I think they're playing it right. For the Mets, yeah, it's just going to have to break through. You have to break through against relievers. You're going to have to do something against that, that the reliever core. And I think for training, a lot of times it's, um, it's just patience. I think sometimes you got to wait him out. He's doesn't have the best, like he has okay command, but it's better than trying to really do some damage against that

super sinker and slider combo you know and then i guess maybe a lefty could do something to train him because you know that's not the greatest movement combo for for a left for for trying to go against the lefty same thing with philips so we're circling francisco landois you know, from the left side, you know, we're circling who we're starting to circling Brandon Nemo. Yeah. And he's playing with plantar fasciitis right now. We learned he's been dealing with that off and on for a while, but, uh, sounds like it's more of a problem when he's running than anything else.

Yeah. So those two guys need to do some damage because, you know, uh, with Vessia hurt. You know, they're going toessia hurt, you know, they're going to get Banda or they might actually get in a bat against Phillips for training and their bat pass, their, their front hitting for the left side is going to make it a little bit harder on those righties. One other Dodgers random note that I saw, it doesn't have anything to do with the series Gavin stone likely to miss 20, 25 after shoulder surgery. If you're just keeping tabs on their depth and the future.

So that's sucked, man. He was his fastball was getting better and better and he'd really look like a good young player. That I wonder. So in the minor leagues, the Dodgers throw the hardest and. It is a little concerning to put that fact together with all these injuries. And you don't wonder if maybe this is too early, too much stress, too early on their prospects, or if it's too much of a emphasis on velocity or what it is. I mean, velocity is good. Nobody's arguing against that, but the, the, the losing Dustin, May river, Ryan and Gavin stone to full year injuries.

And I haven't even mentioned all of them. I'm just mentioning the ones I liked the best, you know, in terms of the youngest pitchers, I mean, right after they'd lost Amit she in for a year. I mean, it's just seems like there's a bit of a problem here, maybe. Yeah. And I think Andrew Friedman's even referred to this as something they want to try and change. They're going to change something in their approach.

We'll see what that actually is over the course of time, but yet another injury on the ledger for the Dodgers pitching staff. Let's move over to the ALCS. How about Lane Thomas hitting a grand slam off Tarek Scoobel to push the Guardians into the ALCS. It wasn't quite the low scoring game you and I thought it was going to be

that sent the Guardians through. And I think if you said the Tigers are gonna match up with the Guardians and Tarek Scubal's gonna take the ball, I think 10 times out of 10, we'd back the Scubal side. That's the preferred matchup of the two knowing that Scubal also pitches deep into starts whereas other teams are yanking starters a bit earlier all that is to say lane Thomas hits the biggest Home run of his career and that was the bulk of the damage in a 7-3 win in game 5 of the ALDS

I noticed that Cade Smith had 11 swinging strikes in his one and two-thirds in game 5 that it's absolutely absurd out of the bullpen. But just thinking about this guardians team for a moment, and I think everyone's gonna look at them and say, clear underdogs against the Yankees. And I would agree with the assessment, they are an underdog. I don't think it's that much of a stretch

for them to hang around. And I say that even as someone that's been skeptical of them all year. I think what they can do is they can match up a lot of different relievers that the Yankees haven't seen a ton and at least create some situations that are going to make those hitters uncomfortable. So I don't know. Like I've I've been skeptical all year, but some of the weaknesses in the back of the rotation matter less.

And depending on how the first two games of the series go, I think that's going to be a huge, huge thing. Like if you told me the Guardians are going to lose the first two, I would have a lot of questions about them rallying back because of the format and having the three consecutive days and the importance of their bullpen. But if they can just get a split in the Bronx to get things started. Sure. Why couldn't they hang around and possibly win the series? Yeah, I would assume that, you know, you're going to have at least two bullpen games for these guys in the playoffs. Are you counting Alex Cobb starts as bullpen games?

I mean, even boy just went to in the last one. Right. So it's kind of hard to know where to where you're drawing that line. But I think you're just you're you just try to be a little bit careful with those bullpen games. And so maybe Boyd starts games to games game two. And that's, you know, you know, heavy relief appearance because there's always the travel day after game two, then I would say, I guess Cobb would start game three because they've allowed him to go deeper and he's been pretty efficient. Um, and then we're going to finally see Gavin Williams.

I think. I think at some point in the middle chunk of the series, Gavin Williams left the throw, they're going to go Cobb and game one against Rodin. So it's Cobb and then Bybee before the break. So I think you see a lot of relief. Is that just the hard part? The rest day thing? I think it's just the regular rest.

That's just the way everyone lines up. Because that's not perfect for them. They'd probably rather have the Boyd second and Bybee first. Yeah. You'd rather, yeah, you'd rather have Cobb or Boyd going in game two than game one because of how you use your bullpen and you want that break. Because you don't have that, I wonder if that means the door is open for Boyd in his mid-series start, I'm assuming game three, to actually go deeper the way he did the first time around against the Tigers, right?

I think where they were in that series probably dictated usage a little bit more. And trying to save relievers as much as you can in game three series conditions, you know, permitting is probably a thing you'd like to do if you're in Stephen votes position. Yeah, boy, that's a really interesting case for stuff plus, because they never liked him. But let's say you, you give him, you know, eight points of stuff less, cause he's a lefty and, and, you know, people won't see him sleep after that often and that, and that, and this and that and the other. And, you know, you still, he'd still have bad stuff if you gave him eight points of stuff. Um, and yet there's been these times where he's had really great strikeout rates.

And to some extent, I think it's just a willingness to just continue throwing a lot of sliders. But this year, uh, you know, it's not been really that heavy on the slider. So I don't really have an explanation for it. I guess the change is good or maybe there's sort of not capturing something that's unique about his arm angle. I don't really know how he gets so many strikeouts.

Yeah, I mean, I'm surprised his foreseam doesn't get hit more because of, you know, being at the lower end of the velocity range at 92. So that's kind of part of it too. Maybe there's something about the fastball they don't see really well. It's a deep arsenal. There's a few things he does well enough that seemed to work for Matthew Boyd. But I think his innings end up being really important for the guardians in this series, because that can help take some of the wear and tear off of their A relievers, keep that group as effective as possible and probably keep these games very low scoring.

Somebody from that Boyd Cobb, uh, Gavin Williams group has to step forward and, and, and, you know, kind of pitch a masterpiece type deal. Like somebody has to step forward and like, you know, go a little deep into games there. Else they're going to, they're going to be really testing their bullpen depth. I think even like four innings of one run ball from one of those guys would be a pretty big lift at some point in the series. Is it fair to say if these games turn into a slugfest that heavily favors the Yankees, even though we've discussed the Guardians lineup

as one that has more power than we've seen in the past, they were league average during the regular season to kind of a different way to get there. Showed more pop in the first half and they did in the second half, but generally a lower scoring game is probably going to suit them a lot better than a slug fest. Yeah. Uh, surprisingly the, the guardians have a higher ISO than the Yankees, but neither is very good right now. That's surprising.

I would say going forward, yes, the Yankees. This is a postseason ISO that I'm talking about. They're both at basically 120. And weirdly, the Yankees are making more contact than the Guardians. Uh, ISO that I'm talking about, they're both at basically one 20, um, and weirdly the Yankees are making more contact than the guardians. Um, but in any case that it should be more about, you know, stringing together singles and timely hitting for the guardians, um, and more about walks and slugging for, for the Yankees who've walked almost twice as much as anybody

else in the postseason, they've been really patient and, uh, that'll test, I think Cleveland too, because there are some guys in that pen that do well, that don't have great command. I think of Sobrowski, uh, as in particular, um, and, and then Boyd is, is, is sort of willing to, to walk you as well. So, um, you know, depending on what these, uh, what, what the, the plan of attack is at the plate, you know, the, the, they could just put a bunch of people on for that eventual Stanton Volpe, uh, blast that I'm looking for Volpe by the way, is a swinging four miles an hour He's swinging the bat four miles an hour harder in the postseason.

So that's going to be my harbinger right there for the, the Vulpid three run homer that turns one of these games. That's going to be parlayed into the Vulpid post hype breakout in 2025 campaign. Like I could just, I could see that one metric, that one nugget carrying a lot of weight over the next few months. Anthony Rizzo back on the roster for the Yankees. I mean, we'll see if he's actually more than a bench bat

at this point, just coming off the injury. I think his usage will be kind of interesting to watch. But yeah, the script that the Guardians were using against the Tigers pitching wise is probably their ideal script against the Yankees. It's just a question of diminishing returns as the Yankees, big bats in particular, get more and more looks at some of those guys. They don't have a pitcher on the Guardians roster who's had the kind of success that Michael Walker has had against Judge. We talked about that in the last round. I was looking, trying to see if there's anybody

that could sneak in there that has just done really, really well in that spot. No, such a player does not exist. So I think that could be a good sign for Aaron Judge to maybe get a little bit more going in this series as well. There was a cool sort of mini deep dive into Snell's, the taking snow out for the time through the order and this analyst that i was reading. Found you know all the snels before and and then saw how they did you know you know in the next inning the ones that were left in the other snels, you know, five innings, one run, whatever it was.

And they had like a collective four, two ERA or something in the next inning, no matter the fact that they were dealing or whatever. So I hate to say that, you know, maybe leaving scubal in wasn't, wasn't the right choice. I know it's scubal and I know you're going to live and ride with your, with your ACE and I know that that bullpen was taxed in, in, in Detroit. But given the fact that they live analytically and do these kinds of matchup things, it's a little surprising. They left him in.

I mean, you just go from he's dealing to grand slam in what seemed like seconds. It's the kind of thing that gets second guessed when your season turns on a note like that. Who the pitchers in the bullpen are, how much they've been worked recently. Those are all the factors you'd want to consider. And I imagine the Tigers went through the different scenarios that could have come up. And knowing how effective Lane Thomas has been in his career against lefties.

You've definitely thought, OK, if he comes up in a spot with runners on base and it's the fifth inning, sixth inning, it's that window where you could could go to the pen. Do you flip that switch or do you say we let scubal see him the third time. And I think they probably had mapped that out far enough and said, our relievers at this point are going to be seeing these hitters for maybe the third or fourth time in the series. And that's not what we want to do. So we're going to roll the dice. And it just didn't it didn't work like it. One of those things you're you're trusting the best pitcher in the

American League this season in a spot that mathematically is maybe a coin flip. And sometimes you're going to lose a coin flip. Right. I think that's that's probably what happened in that instance. It is interesting to see how much that math favored taking Snell out. But I think the more than the who's like, is he dealing question, which is very, very nebulous. It's what are the alternatives and how good are they?

And what other situations are we going to be in as a result of going down the other path that, that I think has to be calculated into. Yeah. I think that it behooves the Tigers to put themselves in a position where they have more options going forward and they have. More depth so that they can still do their reliever mixing and matching but behind the guy who went for five innings as opposed to. You know doing it for a full game or whatever so I think that that looks like they have maybe 30, 35 million that they can spend just to get to the luxury tax payroll for 2024.

So if they've got $30 million that they can spend, um, and they're losing, they're not really losing anything off of what they use in the, in the playoffs, right? They they're losing Jack Flaherty quote unquote, you know? Um, you know, I think that the things that I would put on the table for the playoffs, right? They they're losing Jack Flaherty quote unquote, you know, um, you know, I think that the things that I would put on the table for him is, um, starting pitching depth, like it doesn't have to necessarily be the very top of the market, but it has to be somebody that you think could at least get you four innings in the postseason. Um, and that, you know, postseason start.

And then they've said a right handed power bat. I do think, you know, finding some way to use free agency to augment the lineup is important. And that's that the right handed power bat was a comment that they that they've already made. I forget who had media availability today, but they were talking about that. They also said that have your bias will have a role with the team. Um, that is the way that's worded. It means it could mean that he's just the utility guy.

And I know it's, he's a $25 million utility guy, but I do think he probably has some value on a roster. And if that, if that's, that's sunk money, then the question is just whether or not he's better than the, the other options you have, you know? Right. You have to push yourself past the contract. Now, if you're a Tigers fan and you're evaluating Javier Baez, is he good enough to be one of our four bench guys?

Can he play multiple infield positions? Yeah. Can he situationally have some value? Probably. Power off the bench, you know, can play anywhere. The other way to word it is if they release them and ate all the money, would some other team pick them up for the league minimum? Yeah.

Some other team would take the chance to pick them up as a bench guy. There are worse bench players in the league than Javier Baez. And because they don't have a lot of expensive players elsewhere on the roster, that mistake doesn't matter. The bigger question with the Tigers is kind of an unknown, at least right now, they were top five in payroll from 2012 to 2017, right? And those were the later years of Mike Illich

owning the team when he passed away in 2017, his son Christopher assumed control of the team, but the payroll dropped immediately after that 2017 season. But that was also kind of going into a rebuild phase, so are they gonna maybe rebuild the payroll too? Right. The circumstances lined up in a way where they were going to rebuild and dad passed away.

So there's the question of, will the son want to spend the money? Always a question with ownership changes like this. I would probably split the difference between the higher end payrolls we saw in the early part of the last decade versus some of the things we've seen more recently. If they're close,

what if they're similar to the Padres in spending? 160, 165 million on the opening day payroll, no interest in going into the luxury tax. That seems like a reasonable step forward right now. And then as that core continues to get better. One, two, three years down the road from now, we're going to have similar questions. OK, are they going to be willing to really push it all in and actually pay the luxury tax to be a perennial winner, to be a

perennial contender, because I think this is a solid core. I mean, I think we would have looked at this team, even if they hadn't made the playoffs and said, sure, they could be a playoff team in 2025. So the fact that they went on this run only increases the appetite for the fan base. Maybe it gives you more confidence building this roster that you've done a lot of things right. And it's for as much as we've made comparisons that they've built something that looks a lot like the recent Giants teams. It makes sense. Scott Harris came from San Francisco.

You're effectively platooning. It's a cheap way to be competitive while you're waiting to get through a rebuilding window. The difference for me is the quality of the system, right? We saw Jackson Job a little bit in the postseason. He's obviously gonna have a bigger role in 2025. You've got this next wave of prospects, Max Clark, Bryce Rainer, Kevin McGonigal. They're not helping you next year necessarily, but they're really good prospects.

So you've got another wave of talent. They could be closer than they first appear just with the modern approach to player development. If opening day 2026 is a possibility for any combination of those guys, that's still really good, right? So maybe they don't help you next year, but they're either great players that could be part of a trade.

I don't think they would trade Clark. Even Rainer seems like a long shot to get traded, but they got guys coming beyond what they already brought up. Colt Keith looked great in the second half with the bat, more than 20% better than the average from July 1st on. I think as we look at more and more rookie players, we're going to see some different windows for adjustments. You're going to see some guys like Churio make the adjustment in six weeks or eight weeks. Some guys are going to take a half season. Some guys are going to take

a full season. But I look at Colt Keith, and even though we didn't see great underlying power metrics, I think we saw enough to at least buy into scouting reports that point to 70 grade raw power. I could see him hitting 20 or 25 home runs next year and doing it with a good average and a good OBP. It's not hard to make that sort of leap. Parker Meadows was a different player once he came back from AAA.

Riley Green keeps getting better. So you've got present big league core, you've got depth, you've got a manager that seems like a good fit, you've got present big league core. You've got depth. You've got a manager. It seems like a good fit. You've got room on your payroll. And, you know, maybe. Maybe it's just saying, let's go get a veteran reliever. We were kicking around that idea in the group chat over the weekend.

Maybe can't make Kenley Jansen the tiger for a year just because there's some stability in the ninth inning and you can keep using chaos in the bullpen otherwise. And it's an inexpensive ad because it's like a one year deal and you're not spending future money that you'll need to keep paying to retain scubal and to pay higher ARB salaries on your key core guys. Right. So it's something like that with one or two other smaller moves that just continue to elevate this roster. Yeah. I think I'm going to also, uh, maybe throw in, um, Nick Pavetta and, um, if not to Oscar Hernandez, which would be a kind of a fun edition.

You're talking about right handed power bat that can hit it out at any stadium. Um, you know, if, if that approach leaves Scott Harris cold and he does, he does, he, you know, he talks about controlling the zone. You know, he's a big control the zone guy. Maybe you just, uh, assigned sort of, you know, a veteran Justin Turner, JD Martinez type, you know, for a cheap deal. He's super cheap. But, you know, if we're talking JD Martinez, um, you know, for a cheap deal. But you know, if we're talking JD Martinez, um,

you know, Nick Pavetta and Kelly Jansen, I think you might be spending $30 million between the three of them, you know, sort of like six, 15 and 10, you know, something like that. And you'd be back to where you were last year. You'd be building, you'd be adding, you know, and they've none of those would be long-term deals. I think the longest term deal on any of those would be three years. So you wouldn't be getting yourself into financial trouble long-term.

You may, you'd be patching up things that are important for the team. And I think you'd be adding some upside. Like somebody like Nick Pivetta has got some demonstrated results, but he's never pitched in a, in a park like Comerica. Like he could really maybe enjoy it because home runs are like the big problem that he's had so far. So that's, that's a little one man plan here. If you were going to do that and add a DH, whether it's Te Oskar or JD or anybody

that really doesn't play the outfield at all, that means Carrie Carpenter is playing in the field because you want Carrie Carpenter's bat. So I don't think he's, I don't think he's so bad that he can't play a corner outfield. I don't know. I never got, I never had Kerry Carpenter in that bucket. Like you would think he's more than just like when seal press better defensively and like the other guys better defensively, not that he's like atrocious. Yeah. And I'm just glancing at the metrics right now. I mean, 81st percentile in arm strength, so you could put about in right. They got them even for outs above average. And he didn't play out there that much this year, but not awful, I think is a fair assessment. And again, people that watch the Tigers every day might have a more firm assessment of that. But I would say, I don't

think anything I've ever seen in Kerry Carpenter's defense is so bad that it takes DH bats away from them in free agency. Whereas like we talked about the Royals before the weekend, their roster situation is such that I don't think you can fit to Oscar Hernandez on that roster because of Sal and Vinnie Pasquentino. The other part of the question for the Tigers also is at first base with Spencer Torkelson. I know I was looking for right- power, uh, on the thing. And there's like, there are some first baseman like Reese Hoskins and stuff.

There's right handed power that's going to be out there at first base. And then I was like, but they have a right at first base to some extent. If the Tigers are going to get better, they, they, some of the young guys made a step forward that need to know the step forward. Right. Colt Keith needs to be the good version of Colt Keith all year long. Not, not just also the bad version, you know, and Torkelson needs to find it. There's, there's still another level and some of the young guys on this team and

Parker Meadows needs to do what he did in the second half all year long, you know? So there's, there's some of it's on the young guys to kind of be more consistent and take some of the flashes that they've shown and show it all the time. Yeah. What do you think Jace Young's role is on this team? Right. I mean, 91 games at AAA got 34 with the big club is a late call up and didn't get to the power at all yet. But what I was just saying earlier about young players making the adjustments, maybe it takes him half a season or a couple of months and

he wasn't even getting huge volume. Like we're talking about 94 played appearances over 34 games. It's very hard to find your footing against big league pitching when you're not just in the lineup every single day. So is Jace Young part of the everyday core on this roster next year and how much can he improve and just how quickly? I think, you know, you put young and the constrained, very veering and Sweeney and bias and you're putting them into the mix and you're putting together equal parts, veteran, utilitarian baseline, you know, above replacement, you know, bring the floor up with some of the veterans and, you know, for young and Sweeney, it's, you know, if you hit your top ends, um, you're,

you're going to be the starter. So, um, I don't think that anybody on this team, knowing their ethos is expecting to be really, uh, anointed a position, you know, maybe Riley green, maybe Parker Meadows, cause he plays center field. Uh, everyone else knows that, you know, if Carrie Carpenter can be subbed out the day after he hits, you know, a three run homer off a closet to win the game. Then, you know, we're all just part of a team here that they're going to use this, how they're going to use this. So I think that just internally, they'd be like, okay, it's Sweeney and Young for upside.

And it's like veerling, McKinstry and Baez for, you know, competence. Are you penciling Job in as a member of the rotation to begin the season? Do we see enough from him? I know he had a couple injuries that cost him time. In fact, they were using him as a reliever in the postseason. Probably says a lot about the confidence they have in his ability, but it was 73 and two thirds innings this year at AA, two starts at Toledo spanning nine innings. And then just four at the end of the regular season plus the postseason stuff.

So it wasn't a heavy workload, but you can look at 130 or 140 innings as a possibility for Job. So I would imagine you want most, if not all of those in your rotation. Yeah, he's a sick starter for me right now on the bull on the death chart just because you know kind of material brent her during in case you might resource and of all. Showing something it would be seem like a shame to kind of take them out of the rotation you know i mean. You can maybe do a six man to try and keep all the ratings down a little bit or i think the assumption here is not all five all all four of the guys I just mentioned are going to make it, you know, to opening day in one piece. It's just the reality of it. So I would kind of assume that Job is one of the five without wanting to tell you who I would take out. If I was pressed, I guess I would take herder out and maybe make him a long reliever.

That's sort of what he was. Um, but Joe, by talent, it's a little bit like the, you know, the cover question we just had about the third and short where it's like, Job is the upside and a herder has proven that he can bring the floor up. So somewhere between those two, you feel okay about that spot. I still think it would make sense for them to see if they can sign a starter that is clearly better than the four I mentioned. Yeah. I think Nick Pavetta is the Seth Lugo of the 2024 off season, uh, as far as the

number of teams that you will sign him to on the podcast. And then if you end up being right about everything falling into place for him, everything clicking and Hey, like it's, it's going to pay off. I think the difference will be, I think there's still more, there are still more believers in Nick Pavetta today than there were in Seth Lugo going into. Which is weird because he was a fine reliever, but I guess he had the added obstacle, not only of maybe not having the very top end stuff that Pavetta has, but also just being a reliever last year,

as opposed to Pavetta coming from starting. Yeah, I think that was the concern, is the jump from Lugo going from 65 to 146 in a third innings in 22 to 23. People worrying that he couldn't be a workhorse this year. Get the 206 and two thirds plus the playoff innings too. It's a massive, massive jump for Lugo. I think you mentioned that as one of the concerns

with the Royals, a lot of guys, you know, at and far exceeding their career highs for workload, wondering if there's gonna be some carryover effect on that. I wonder, do you think there's any concern with the bullpen usage of the Tigers in the second half, guys getting worked that heavily, carrying that over into 2025. We think about this all the time with starters.

We talk about it a lot less with relievers, but do you think that is something to keep a close eye on when 2025 begins for this team? Yeah, I think that that's another good reason to put somebody like Jansen in there. I mean, I would be circling Bo Brischke, who's had injury concerns in the past and had varying usage this last year. Will Vest was used pretty

aggressively. And Jason Foley, I mean, I think those guys throw hard and you wouldn't be surprised if one of them goes down next year so just adding jansen to that bullpen to you know. Be there in case other you know other guys are grass and then you know what you may get from jansen is he starts going into his kimbrough type seasons where he's a easier closer for the first couple months and. Always starting to lose the job at the end of the year. always starting to lose the job at the end of the year. That's okay. A closer that gets you there. And then you're like, Oh, by the way, we just called up a guy who throws 99 and has, you know, an 87 mile an hour sweeper and he's actually our closer, but thank you. Kenley.

Yeah. The, the tier B tier C closers. That's the model. Just get us through the regular season. Be good enough in the regular season. Then we'll use some other reliever instead for those spots when it matters the most. Also a strange twist within modern baseball. But yeah, all in all, things look pretty good with that Tigers core right now.

And you could see some combination of the young guys that broke through this year getting better. You could see some improvements on the margins of getting this team kind of back to a similar level pretty easily in 2025, especially if the twins are going to go through an ownership change and have a relatively quiet off season that would also leave the door open because that was the team we liked the most in this division for most of the year and they didn't even make the playoffs and now there's a bit of a cloud of uncertainty hanging over them as this off season approaches.

We are going to go on our way out the. A reminder, you can get a subscription to the athletic for $2 a month for the first year at theathletic.com slash rates and barrels. As I mentioned earlier, join our discord. The link is in the show description. You can find Eno on Twitter at EnoSares. Find me at Derrick Ryper. Find the pod at rates and barrels.

That's gonna do it for this episode of Rates and Barrels. We're back with you on Tuesday. Thanks for listening.