Rates & Barrels - Mid-Summer Prospecting & Playing Time Winners & Losers After the Trade Deadline

Episode Date: August 2, 2024

Eno and DVR discuss the difficulty of trading for top-end prospects -- in fantasy and reality -- and whether we should pay extra attention to the players on the move despite the likelihood that they're not top-100 prospects at the time they are traded. Plus, they look at opportunities for Jackson Holliday and Coby Mayo in Baltimore, changes to a few depth charts coming out of the Trade Deadline, and Hayden Birdsong's return to the rotation for the Giants with Alex Cobb traded to Cleveland. Rundown 2:17 Should We Care More About the Prospects Traded at the Deadline? 9:47 The Arc of Jasson Dominguez’s Prospect Ranking 13:25 Did the Padres ‘Hack’ Age-to-Level Models? 19:50 Any Intriguing Prospects That Entered Your Radar This Summer? 25:32 Jackson Holliday & Coby Mayo Promoted This Week 37:19 The Rays’ Depth Chart is Still a Cluster 47:44 Will Miguel Vargas Make a Fantasy Impact with the White Sox? 55:51 Kyle Stowers & the Miami Opportunity Machine 1:05:59 Hayden Birdsong & Marco Luciano Stock Up? Follow Eno on Twitter: @enosarris Follow DVR on Twitter: @DerekVanRiper e-mail: [e-mail] Join our Discord: https://discord.gg/FyBa9f3wFe Join us on Thursdays at 1p ET/10a PT for our livestream episodes! Subscribe to The Athletic: theathletic.com/ratesandbarrels Hosts: Derek VanRiper & Eno Sarris Producer: Brian Smith Executive Producer: Derek VanRiper Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

You know what's great about ambition? You can't see it. Some things look ambitious, but looks can be deceiving. For example, a runner could be training for a marathon, or they could be late for the bus. You never know. Ambition is on the inside. So that goal to beat your personal best? Keep chasing it. Drive your ambition, Mitsubishi Motors. Welcome to Rates and Barrels, it's Friday, August 2nd. Derek the Riper, Inosaris here with you. On this episode, we take a look at depth charts coming out of the trade deadline teams that moved players, created some opportunities for new ones. It's kind of an extended version of our weekend waiver preview looking for

hidden sources of value or direct sources of value for guys that simply got traded into more playing time. We got a few of those to get to today as well and we have a project prospect broad Question to get to as we get rolling here in just a few minutes if you have not joined the discord yet That is the best place to send questions for the show. You can do that using the link in the show description You know, how's it going for you on this Friday morning? It's good going to see Deadpool tonight going to the last few days of an art exhibit at SF MoMA that is the art of noise, I think it is, but it's music. It's like music, art, band art,

like, you know, like posters and actually some, some audio stuff. So I'm going with my dad, who's been going to concerts for, I don't know, 70 years, 60 years. Is there any podcasts featured at this exhibit? Yeah, I'll make a case for rates and barrels up there. We could put the audio birthday card I made for you a few years ago. That was real art. That was amazing.

We had the beer cap. It was a nice graphic made by our graphics team for an article. I think it was an article that you wrote or was articles about you. That's right. With me and the beer caps. I took that and then I just put you singing underneath it. That was incredible. That should be saved forever and not just lost. Lost but yeah it's it's man it's been like three weeks rolled into one is the best way I could describe it so happy that it's Friday hope everybody out there is having a great week and has

some chances to relax this weekend here's my question for you a lot is being made about trade deadlines and how we don't really see top 100 prospects get moved anymore. And it makes me wonder if we should just care more about the prospects that get moved at the deadline anyway, because it's a signal that Major League evaluators and front offices care about those players. Like, so much of the focus is at the top of the list, understandably so. Those are the players that are most likely to be stars. But as you move to the back of a top 100, the hit rate changes a lot. If you look to the top 25, top 40 prospects, the hit rate

and the war generated by those players is going to be a lot higher than the guys in the bottom half of that list. So I guess this is another way of saying, I'm not sure the difference between the 65th prospect on a top prospect list, is that much, the difference is that great between that player and the guy that'd be 140 if that player was ranked that far. And I know we have some people out there that rank more.

Our friend James Anderson goes to 400, but a lot of publications stop at 100. So are we making too much of a big deal about the lack of top 100 prospects on the move? And how much should we pay extra attention to the names that actually do get traded because they are being sought out by the organizations trading for them? Well I think about that J.J. Cooper finding that 80% of the prospects traded at the deadline give up, make less than a win of war at the major league

level. So I do think also of the sort of logarithmic way of, you know, the way that you can see value just plummet, you know, for prospects from top 10 prospects. My natural reaction, I think that's and this is what, you know, fancy owners and the market has done is I will protect a top 10 prospect with my life. And I don't really care about the rest. So the unfortunate thing that has happened though, and this, this came up recently in a trade discussion where I was trying to sell a little in that Devil's Rejects league that I'm in where James Anderson is my co-owner and we started up discussions and I said well you know I would like George Lombard off your team

he's a shortstop prospect of the Yankees I don't even think he's he's not I don't think he's top 10 I'm not even sure he's top 20 but he might be top 50 you know he took George Lombard off the table and offered me some other guys that were probably more like 100 to 150. And I just, I was like, I don't even, I don't even want to keep talking. And so that was the end of it. And then the, the response from their side was, well, I know I can't get anybody to even buy any prospects. I've got another owner who keeps trying to give me two, like sort of top 20 prospects for Junior Campanero.

And that same league. That's kind of interesting. Sometimes it gets close to me being like, eh, you know, but roster spots are pretty, you're always, everyone in every league almost is trying to consolidate. Trying to get two quality for three or whatever it is. So I just see the problem of, oh well you making me drop somebody that I might be able to keep otherwise.

And I don't want to get off that logarithmic scale. I got a top five guy. I'm in the good spot. I want to get off that logarithmic scale. I got a top five guy. I'm in the good spot. I want to stay there. I don't want to trade down off that, you know, into the other parts of the curve. Right. Well, I think the exercise in trying to accrue value

and keep her in dynasty leagues is just figuring out which guys are going to at least move up the list high enough to become tradable, even if they are not going to be superstars. Who can get from the back of the top 100 or outs of the top 100 inside the top 40 or 50, where that is a range where at least you can move players? But you're right, it's hard to get people to take players that are further down on those lists.

It's hard to do those combined trades too. Just try to pick them up because there's always some sort of hype prospect that someone's talking about or you follow some account that's like, oh, this guy's, you know, Sebastian Walcott, you know, was like, was a bust, you know, two months ago. And now he's hitting 300 and looks like a legitimate prospect. That's probably, he's probably going to move himself 40 40 points 40 places in the next in some of the people's next rankings you know maybe even more and so I would just say you you just you look around and maybe you get lucky on one of these

hype ones you pick up Sebastian Walcott because you saw a tweet and now you're now you're in a good spot or you go shopping in you know a single a where you can just like you can just do a sort. And there are like always amazing lines in single A. Just like, just look through single A and be like, what? This guy's hitting 350 with power and speed, you know? And you just, you pick up, you know, one or two of those guys and, you know, sometimes they, who was the, who was the big one for the brewers that I was excited about for a little bit. He was good in single A and then had Burt Perez.

Yeah, I had Burt Perez. Yeah, there's always a head. Yeah, you could pick up. And then if it doesn't work out, it doesn't work out. But you didn't trade an asset to get had Burt Perez. You just you just picked him up. Yeah. I mean, I think you're talking for position players, especially, you're kind of fishing in the recent J2 signings who are playing in a full season league for the first time and doing well.

That's sort of the criteria because those players usually young for the level and it's the first opportunity to see them in a longer sample. So that's the opening data point that we care about for a lot of players. That's the group that you're kind of honing in on for the most part. Yeah, I mean, I'm just gonna, I'm not doing,

there's this guy, Kevin McGonigal. Prospects report 45 future value, not on the top 100. ETA 2026 it's a CBA pick for the for the Tigers. He is hitting 326 407 470 with power and speed 9% strikeout rate 12% walk rate. I don't know Romeo Sanabria I'm just sorting by WRC plus insane names, you know, like just do a little bit of a research.

Of course, Lazaro Montez is fifth best in a ball, and that's actually a name you might recognize. And the other thing you're going to see is the value of these players can jump a little bit for lists that get updated throughout the year, because as they get promoted, sometimes they hit a temporary wall that reduces some of the enthusiasm. It creates a lot of questions. Maybe there's a flaw with a certain pitch type, and there's some uncertainty as to whether or not that adjustment will be made. I mean, I even think about it with Jason Dominguez, just the arc of Jason Dominguez's time as a prospect.

He was like a can't miss guy. He was the next he was the he had a nickname. He was the Martian. He was going to be a number one prospect. I don't know if he ever got to number one. I don't know if he was ever anybody's number one, but he was in top tens really, really young, mostly, you know, sight unseen based on the player he was at the time he signed as a teenager with the Yankees. On like, Cespidus Barbecue type stuff. Sure. And then there was the dip in 2022 when, you know, it didn't, it didn't look great

cause the strikeout rate was high at A-Ball and it just, people were wondering like, oh no, is this a colossal bust? The power wasn't like no doubt. Or is this going to take longer too? Like that was the other part of it. Like the timing is always kind of important to trying to figure out where these guys go And I remember trading for Dominguez and getting him as a throw-in and a keeper league that spring It was just because I had a prospect spot open the person I was trading with had to move somebody and I think by ranking

Dominguez might have been their worst prospect. That was it. It wasn't me saying he's definitely good someday It's more like hey, wait, everyone thought he was awesome a year ago or 18 months ago, so maybe I'll just take that flyer since it's May. A lot can happen between May and this September, and if he's not good at the end of the year, sure, I'll cut him, but the difference between Dominguez and any other fringy top 100 prospect,

I would have filled that spot with, how would I have known the difference other than things I was previously told about Jason Dominguez. Right. And you're on like a roller coaster ever since, so you're probably pretty excited about him now. It's been a strange development, especially with the injury after I promoted him last year and all that stuff. Oh, so you've been holding him in the major league spot.

He's actually stayed on the roster, which is, you know. But that's like, maybe that's an extreme outlier sort of example. But the other side of the opening question is, should we care a lot about the prospects that teams cling to? In the case of the Padres, right, they were aggressive, but they kept two prospects that you'll see

on a lot of lists. You'll see Ethan Salas, teenage catcher, very high on some lists. I think he's inside Keith Law's top 10, even as of the mid-season update, and that's with some struggles at AA, which makes sense given how young he is. And then Leo DeVries, who's just flying up lists

because he's in that group of players playing full season ball in the States for the first time this year, also as a teenager, and that is driving up his value right now. So perhaps the Padres unwillingness to trade him, at least for now, should be a pretty good indication to some of us that they see him as a guy that will be a special player, that they will see as a future consensus top five or top 10 prospect, that will be the guy you can't even trade for in fantasy like that's that's sort of

The vibe I get when a team holds on to a guy like that But starts to trade everybody else like Robbie Snelling who they traded to the Marlins I think could do a little bit of the Dominguez thing where This is actually a relative buy low point and the Marlins are gonna look pretty sharp for getting him in that deal that sent Tanner Scott and Brian hoeing to San Diego But I think the fact that they held on to Leo DeVries in particular gives us an idea that they think he's special. You know, one thing that's interesting is that Salas has not played well at any level

offensively. We had a question about this in Discord, and I'll try to get the handle while we're talking but the question was have the Padres hacked age to level and I think the question is driving at have they done something with how they promote players that has effectively inflated the value of their prospects in the eyes of other teams and their respective models. Where you can look at Ethan Salas and say he reached double A last year and he's playing at high A as an 18 year old and youngest player in the league and he's already a major league ready defensive catcher.

It's just a matter of the bat coming around and you can put all that into your system even with what he's done at the plate and it still spits out an Amazing long-term value for a player like that. Is that is that hacking? Is that a strategy? Is that just their way of trying to get them to the big leagues faster? Like what do you make of it? It could be possible that teams could be trying to do that. I mean we joke about the Angels and the Angels Just announced that they're Promoting their prospect that they picked in the draft this year in the first round to double-a already Seven of the ten first picks in the draft have not even started playing baseball yet Oh my goodness, you played two games Christian more Christian more

I saw the note that he homered last night And I jokingly said oh he's getting promoted and here's Sam Blum On his way Christian Moore joining the trash pan does after two games at high a This also reminds me of the thing that I said about David Forrest who he says we're doing player development at the major league level right the angels and the A's may have some of the worst player development in the big leagues. And so, you know, pushing your guys actually makes sense if you think you're you only have good coaches at the top levels in the major leagues, right?

So you're like, well, might as well get him the better coaching. With Solace, it's just it is it does stand out to me that he has not played well offensively and yet they've moved him. And Robbie Snelling is a, you know, by stuff plus, probably not a standout. I saw some stuff from Lance Brodsdowski about how he has poor extension, poor velocity, poor ride, his breaking balls at 80 miles an hour, so on and so forth. You know, despite knowing all that, they've moved him and he is, I'm looking right now at AA and he is one of the few pitchers that is 21 or younger that played at AA this year. So that does stand out, those two. But I think it's one of

those things where two examples make you think that there's a bigger trend going. This is just a simple thing, but I don't, I think it's sort of makes sense logically. I just said, okay, let me look at which organizations I took all of AA and I said, how many players do you have that are 21 or younger in AA? If you, if the Podgers were doing this they would have multiple guys right? Right they'd just be moving everybody along instead of, I think they're just moving certain players that they think they can get to the big leagues faster because they actually

believe those guys belong on those curves. I don't think this is some... Or to trade them so it could be something they do to pump up trade value of specific players that they like their highest I think it's just they take their highest value players and move them Yeah, move them aggressively see how they respond to it and you know, the worst case scenario is that their age to level Context still isn't terrible. The best case scenario is you're right and they're just they're good I'm ready to go like sort of Jackson Merrill, right? They moved him pretty aggressively. I think that's it because I just did hitters 21 and under at AA.

There are 43 of them and none of them with 50 play appearances or more and none of them play for the San Diego Padres. There's no quality filter on this. It's just, are you 21 or not? And a hitter and 50 play appearances. Minnesota has Emmanuel Rodriguez and Luke Keishel and Kalei Rosario. So you know, that's three. That's probably I'm just eyeballing it, but three out of 43.

That's the most you're going to get probably. So maybe Minnesota is super aggressive. I don't know. I think there's probably a difference there where maybe some organizations are like, we move everybody along in a cohort almost, right? So I don't really want to take a top prospect and move them ahead of a performing guy that I took the draft class before. Because I don't want the performing guy who's in AA to be like, I just lost my job to that

guy just because his draft pick was higher. I think that some organizations are like, if you perform, we will move you and we will give you opportunities. Some organizations are like, is it playing favorites? Well, there is a logistical component to making sure that you're developing players at the positions where you think they're going to play and contribute most efficiently in the big leagues too. And sometimes you have multiple guys that are short stops that you wanna keep at short stops

so that holds someone back or catchers. Like premium positions especially this can happen. I know you can move somebody and then move them back again, but I think that becomes kind of tricky if you think there's something they need to work on along the way and not getting those reps does potentially cost you something in the long run. You also have like, you know, you might have like a Graham Pauley who's hitting

321 with a 141 WRC plus and double A in 2023. You look at the package and you look at the exit velocities and, you know, maybe the players can't see that same analysis and so they say why would why would Ethan Salas be at the same level as Graham Pauly or whatever you know that doesn't make any sense but for the team they're like no no we're just as excited even more excited really about Ethan Salas and Graham Pauly because we are looking at more things than you know players might some players might even just be looking at batting average. If you're shopping while working, eating,

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or go to rakuten.ca to start getting the most bang for your buck, that's R-A-K-U-T-E-N. One other prospect question before we move on to the long weekend waiver preview. Did you find as the dust cleared from this deadline, if there were any prospects that you learned more about and said, oh, this guy's actually really interesting despite not being a top 100 prospect.

I'm interested in this guy now because I, like last year for me it was Takoa Roby that has not worked so far, hell has been a factor. But that happens every year. You just come into some prospects that you hadn't seen a lot of yet or hadn't even seen really at all or hadn't read their scouting report before. Anybody interesting sort of unearth himself to you at this? I guess Trey Sweeney kind of stuck out for me because he's playing shortstop. You know,

he moved organizations and I don't even know what the trade was between the Yankees and Dodgers that got Trey Sweeney to LA. But he has a history of low strikeout rates. And right now he's striking out more, but he's also hitting for more power. And there's a chance there that he could put the two things together and have like a 22% strikeout rate and an average ISO and speed. So if that is the case, you have a guy who could hit 260, 270 and be like a 2020 guy in the major leagues at shortstop.

That's pretty good. He was a guy that I wasn't even on my radar before. So, you know, and now that he's in LA, there's also, no, now that he's a L.A., there's also no now that he's a tiger. Clear path for sure. And the Dodgers don't have shortstop figured out long term. Right. Yeah. In L.A. He would have been interesting as a shortstop.

But in Detroit, he's interesting as an infielder. There's multiple opportunities on that infield. The trade, by the way, I remember vaguely remember this trade when it happened. The one that sent Trey Sweeney to the Dodgers in the first place was the Victor Gonzalez and Your beat in the boss trade because your beat Vivas was a guy that I was looking at last year doing some number scouting I thought was kind of interesting in that Dodger system So the they sent Vivas and Victor Gonzalez for Trey Sweeney. They got Sweeney back. Yeah, the Dodgers got Sweeney out of that deal

for Trey Sweeney. They got Sweeney back. Yeah, the Dodgers got Sweeney out of that deal. Interesting. And Sweeney's WRC plus this year is not good. But I still think that there's sort of under the hood stuff where it's like 1099 max TV, 44% hard hit, along with obvious speed and playing shortstop and a good walk rate and past good strikeout rates.

There's like, he could be in the middle of an adjustment that could blast him into another level. Like, you know, and he's also a AAA. So it's like one of those things where it's, it's, it's going to happen or not. And you get to decide quickly, you know, I do hate sometimes getting a guy who's an A ball or AA, but super young. And you're like, like the whole Jason Dominguez thing, like I might not have held on to him all the way through. There might have been too many opportunities to either trade him or I need that roster spot or there's a veteran or whatever, you know. So, you know, with Trace Weiny, you're going to be like, I'm going to know in the next year or two if this was worth my time. It won't take long to figure that out. And I think the names that I hadn't really seen a lot of

prior to this deadline that people thought were a good value when the Phillies flipped them to the Angels, George Klassen in particular, big fastball, big curveball, nice cutter, it's a command question. We see this a lot stuff across the board on multiple pitches looks legitimately good. And it's a question of whether or not he'll command it well enough to be a starter or if he ends up being

a high leverage reliever. But I think a lot of people like Klassen and Samuel Aldegary, lefty that Deans got in that trade. A couple evaluators suggest that that package was better than the one that the Padres sent in the Tanner Scott deal. That would make some sense. That's where it's like the great, like after 100,

we don't always have a ranking to look at. Like that's it. And if those are only coming out at the beginning of the season or in the winter, especially, a lot changes from February to end of July. I would certainly take Klassen over Snelling myself, just knowing what I know now about their stuff. But a year ago, I think it would have been laughable.

It would have been Snelling hands down. So it's just a question of like, okay, Snelling is this guy that he was so young for the level. The backstory on Snelling is he was a very like highly coveted football recruit to like a four star recruit to go play linebacker. So he's that kind of athlete. Yeah. So if he's 20 right now, so he could still get bigger and stronger and change and work at some of those things that are You know currently holding his arsenal back like you have to kind of build that into your expectations and your Projection for a player like that, too But I thought the angels this is again coming from people who know

Prospects a lot better than I do did actually pretty well in that swap They made with the Phillies getting some pictures that could be important to them in the long run. This is also, Claussen is also a win I think for Phillies player development. They've been trying to improve their pitching development from within for a while and he was a sixth round pick that cost them you know $300,000 in the draft in 2023 to turn him into an asset that could bring them back Carlos Estevez is pretty good. You're drafting pitchers out of the Big Ten in the sixth round and turning them into guys

you can trade for high leverage relievers. You're doing well as an organization but curious to see how it works out for Klassen especially with that move to Anaheim. Let's take a look at some of the big league opportunities created from this trade deadline. You featured some players in a story earlier this week. We'll talk about a few of those guys. And we're gonna take a spin through some of the depth charts

that have the most going on right now. I think we should start with the Orioles because there's some stuff that's unrelated to the deadline. Kobe Mayo is coming up because Jordan Westberg is going on the IL with a broken hand. Jackson Holliday got recalled earlier this week and he already looked like a winner from this deadline with Connor Norby being included in a trade That sent Trevor Rogers back to the Orioles. Also somehow found room for LeVon Soto

Every time they make a transaction I'm like how many players do they have like 30 people on the 26 man roster like what is happening? Somebody's not checking to make sure I think Soto's probably going down when they officially promote Mayo, maybe or Matteo Where's already Mateo's on the 60 day IELTS, so he's done done. Yeah, I think he's he's not done for the season He's done until like the last week. Okay, S Okay Soto is taking the smallest part of Mateo's job which is backup infielder. He's not going to figure in too much. I'm just looking at the depth chart now and it looks to me like Jackson Holliday is the second baseman. Yes I think this

is a nice runway for Jackson Holliday as we've learned he does have to hit to stay up. They could send him back down if it doesn't work and go back to trying to save rookie of the year status for 2025. It doesn't work out this time around. I guess it somewhat depends on Mayo because if Mayo hits and Holliday doesn't, then Urias can play second or third and just be the like the worst offensive player on the team. Just that's fine with them. You know, OK, we have one hole, you know, and it's not even that bad. I think that's the deal there. So it's kind of Mayo versus Holiday for for a job, maybe they both can have a job.

You know, yours can be a backup, too. But if we're going to do to build a bench, what's the bench? It'd be Uias for one. So we're gonna put Holliday, Mayo as starters. We're gonna put them in as starters. I'm gonna put Eloy Jimenez as a starter at DH. Okay, so then you're putting Ryan O'Haren on the bench? Who you put on the bench that was starting?

O'Haren. I'm going to Kauser Mullin Santander. And O'Haren is going to be a much used bench piece. So I'm putting him first on the bench, you know, I'm going to put Soto last on the bench. So we have two spots left, Urias and McCann. Yeah, what happened to Kirstad? Did Kirstad get hurt again? Why is he gone? This is what I'm saying. Oh, they optioned him.

They're always optioning someone you think they don't have to option. That player used to be Kyle Stowers a lot too. Yeah, that's true. And Kirstad, like Stowers, is 25, you know, on the ripening part of the scale. Probably a better, he's a better player, I think, than the Stowers,

but he's similar in that he strikes out a lot. Could be a three-two alchemy guy, but he's run high babifs just because of his spray chart and his speed. Some speed, I don't know. Why is he run high babifs? Yeah, that's interesting. He might be a better player than Stowers. I'm not even 100% sure.

Okay, so that's the deal. Kirstad is gone, and O'Hern is the super sub. Your Herne and Urias are the super subs. That's my bet personally that Eloy is basically a starter. Yeah, I mean, he's the eighth best hitter on the team by projection because they have so many. Yes, but in that eight, does that include Kirstad that's now down and other people?

I think Kirstad was below. They have 12. They have 12 guys by projection. Rest of season. You're using bat X rest of season Baltimore. How do you have that many? Jesus. They go 12 is Mayo is 102. First that is a 107 even though you know we didn't put Slater on this team. Slater would be one of the other bench guys.

He's the other platoon outfield option. We're still running out of. So maybe the Bonsota is not on the team tomorrow Yeah, that could be the next move but but then there's the backup shortstop Jackson holiday, right they can move yet teams that have the Second baseman that can play shortstop have the backup shortstop in the lineup and don't have to put one on the bench If you take Westberg out because he's hurt Aloy is sixth best he is a little bit worse than

Ohurn though in terms of projection so I could be wrong. A little bit of a jam there with Mountcastle or Ohurn and Eloy. I think there's like an unfair amount of negativity about Eloy's skills as a hitter that comes from the number of injuries he's dealt with and his lack of availability. I mean, I saw that clip every time I see a clip of a studio show just ragging on players in a way that seems a little unfair. It's always the White Sox crew. I don't know what's going on in the studio over there, but they they were they were just jubilant that Eloy Jimenez was gone as though he was the reason why their franchise has turned to what it is. It's like, no.

He's not the reason. He's been 14% better than league average as a hitter with average strikeout rate, slightly below average walk rate, above average power, really good raw power, good barrel rate. I mean, he's a good hitter. Yeah, he's a good hitter. Yeah, he's a good hitter. You can't play defense. That's fine. We like players that can do that, that do it well. And I think once a team finally gets to the point

where they stop having delusions about him being a left fielder, I think there's a chance that might keep him a little healthier. And maybe we'll actually see 30 home runs in a season because on a per like 600 at bats basis, he's a 30 home run power guy. That's what he's done to this point in his career. I have to point something out though. We have five people on our bench.

We can't. You're really upset about this. We can't, right? So it's O'Hern, Slater, Soto, and McCann, right? And Urias. Urias is, that's right, because we didn't put Mayo in there. So they do have the option, they're going to option Soto down. Soto is not going to be there.

He's going back down. I mean, he's not as good as the other players. Right, because Mayo's going in third, Urias is going to the bench, Soto is going to the minors. So it's McCann, Urias, Ohern. Soto would be the corresponding move if they send Holliday down, because they'll just be like, we want to back up shortstop, and we're going to play Mayo at second or Urias at second.

They would bring Soto back if they don't keep Holliday. Yeah. I think that would be his path back onto the roster. OK. All right. Bench built successfully. Slater is only play center field against righties. They didn't want to do Causer there.

Causer is a full-time left fielder. Santander is a full-time right fielder. Eloy is going to lose some at bats to Ohurn. But I don't know that it's going to be a strict lefty Ohurn, righty Eloy. And I wonder if you'll suddenly see some weird Ohurn or Eloy in the outfield situations. Think you'll see more Ohurn out there. That's the expectation I would have looking at what those guys can do out there.

The other thought I had about the Orioles knowing that they added to this bullpen at the deadline to why are they rebuilding the Phillies 2023 bullpen? Kimbrel, Soto, Serenity Dominguez? They got three of them. I mean, to me, the way I described it on Baltimore Radio the other day was, I think Kimbrill, Dominguez, and Soto, I think Kano is an ideal setup man because his stuff lends itself a little bit more to ground balls and he'll allow contact. But you could bring him in with somebody on base, maybe get a double play, that sort of deal. You don't necessarily want him as your closer,

because then he might put somebody on base. You know what I mean? With the walk rate, too, he could maybe create a situation out of nothing. So anyway, Kimbrel, Soto and Dominguez, I think all have the stuff to close. And I think what their bet is, one of these guys will have good command at the right time. None of them has great command. And when they don't have great command, they're not, you don't want them as your closer. That's what we've seen.

So I think they're just betting that one of them has good enough command to be the closer at the right time. Yeah. Good luck trying to land that plane though. I hope they've got a model for that. That'd be great. But I do also think that there are certain teams that have maybe more advanced modeling for command. And I did see some weird sort of swapping of relievers. The whole like Hunter Biggie goes to the Rays and then the Cubs trade for Nate Pearson. I'm like, are they the same guy? Is it Spider-Man meme? Like that does seem a little bit like Spider-Man meme. And maybe it was just like, well the Rays wanted Biggie

and we we wanted to have a high stuff guy like that so we just gave them Biggie and thought we trade something lesser for Pearson and so you know we do think it's Spider-Man meme or teams think that they have modeled command better. Cause you know, I think there's a public race right now to model command better in terms of what, what the things we're thinking about are release angles. So looking at a pitcher's angles out of the hand

to predict command, but Max Bay had a recent little tweet about it where he said, you know, a point one degree change or one degree change in release angle is a foot at the plate. So you're trying to parse these release angles because you just think about the math of it, right? Like you're trying to throw this ball 60 feet. If you change it one one degree, of course, it's going to be a lot 60 feet away. So release angles are one way that people are doing at it. Alex Chamberlain has proposed that we should have a sort of broader

look instead of looking at the nine segments of the strike zone. We should look in maybe, you know, fewer segments, whatever it is. You know, another way of thinking about it is perhaps we could look at these heat maps and look at their sort of tightness and just have like some sort of idea of the spray of a picture. Sure. Like the weight, the heaviness of the dot. Like if it's actually like where you want to be or if it's a big splattery egg. Yeah. Oh, they're kind of all over the place. They don't have that consistency.

Look at Hayden Birdsong's, you know, four seam spray chart. If you want to be like, whoa, what is, what's that? But that's a little bit of a Rorschach thing where you'd be like, well, how many clusters are there? Are there three clusters here that are tight or is it one spread, spread shot? So anyway, people are trying to race to model command better in the public space. I bet you some teams feel like they've had it sussed a little bit. Maybe the Orioles think, no, there's these guys command is fine, we'll take them. Yeah, that could be.

That could definitely be the situation. Staying in the AL East for a minute, the Rays very active at the deadline. We saw Gianni De Luca get a day off on Tuesday after four straight starts. I hate them. I hate them. Has anything changed?

I hate this depth chart. It's not that I hate the Rays. It's I hate this depth chart. Every year I'm trying to figure out their damn depth chart. I think all that's gonna happen is for now, until they bring up Junior Kamen Arrow, who they'll probably bring up at the end of the month or in early September, until then,

Johnny DeLuca and Richie Palacios can play more together and not share a spot. And I still don't know if splitting up means they even have full shares, they just have larger shares. And then once Kamen Arrow comes up means they even have full shares, they just have larger shares. And then once Caminero comes up, through the trickle down, because Palacios gets into the second base mix, I think everything falls in a way where they go back, De Luca and Palacios

go back sharing again, and then you're frustrated by both. So you have this little window until Caminero's up, where I think those are the two guys that play a little extra. There is an opportunity, despite De Luca being a right a write for him to sort of play into full time but I was looking at his skills and this is when I was writing this piece I was like do I have a thing for DeLuca? I ended up just putting them all under Curtis under John Junior Kamenier because he was the most interesting name to me because when I look at DeLuca I'm like okay he has struck out less in the

past so he could maybe strike out less in the future. But the Max EV doesn't give me a great sense of great raw power, the barrel rates aren't good, and they're playing him at center, which sort of gives me the clue that they like his defensive value to some extent, which doesn't like speak well of him to me offensively. Like they have Jose Siri as a right-handed plus defense center fielder. Yeah, but they've been backing off his playing time a little bit. They have been and they've been playing DeLuca there. So, but what I'm saying is if somebody plays themselves into a full time or Kaminiaro comes up, I kind kind of see De Luca as maybe the replacement for Ciri. I don't know. Or he just loses his job to Ciri because Ciri has better defense. Because Ciri is mostly

versus lefties center fielder. Anyway, this is a really hard one to figure out, I think. But the way that they're playing Christopher Morrell, third in the lineup, and they played him at second, they played him at DH, it seems to me like he was the centerpiece of a deal. They wanted him, they like him, he's hit homers, they're already tweeting about how much they love him as a person and you know, all this stuff. There's a real love fest for Morrell. I'm reading the vibes, I'm reading the usage, I'm reading the tools, and I'm saying Morrell is a full-time starter at second and DH. I think that's right. And Lau is a second-based DH but will sit against lefties. Yandy plays all the time. Josh Lowe plays all the time. I know he's sad against two lefties, but what do you think? How many platoons can you have? Right now, Roster Resource has Lowe, Roardv Vett. Yeah if you want to platoon your

catcher you can. Four bench spots you can get away with four platoons. Yeah it's not useful who cares. So they basically they say a platoon with walls but walls is the everyday shortstop. Right I think what gets complicated on the infield too is if you put Kevin Aro in the mix, Caballero has to share with walls. They can't kind of spread out on the infield twos if you put Kevin Arrow in the mix Caballero has to share with walls They can't they can't kind of spread out and they have played him a short stop He played him once against shortstop at shortstop against the lefty in the last Yeah, and junior Kevin Arrow is not playing a shortstop in AAA this year. He's not a shortstop. He's just isn't like so

He's probably coming up He's gonna play third and it's probably probably coming up, he's going to play third and he's probably going to come up because he's got some service time in early September because they want him to be rookie of the year eligible in 2025. Like it's not going to happen now. It's going to, they're going to, might as well just wait for that. But at some point they're going to have fewer holes in their lineup and Walls, Ciri and to some extent Cavallaro are holes in the lineup.

Roartvecht might be able to hit a little bit, but that's probably a fourth hole. So you got four holes in your lineup. They kind of often just go the defensive route at catcher though. Like they're one of the teams that will take less. And that's fine. And Siri is going the defensive route there

and Walls is going the defensive route there. Uh-oh. Yeah, I think cutting it down to three spots where you do that is that's too much. Like you got to probably limit yourself to one or two. So maybe Caballeros ends up taking back the shortstop job when Caballero comes up. That's a sort of level of intrigue where you want to watch and see if Walls doesn't hit. Like, can you really keep playing them? No, eventually you have to move on.

And then we didn't mention Carlson! That's right, Dylan. Yeah, Dylan Carlson. Who's a switch hitter? Who could play center? What was the corresponding move on the roster to fit Carlson on it? Who'd they option down for that? They traded Sean Armstrong for him. They only have him, they have him for, they could have him for three more years. Yeah, so are we gonna go ahead

and put Dylan Carlson in the winner bucket? Is this good for him? No, he came off the bench, but he came off the bench against a righty to replace Palacios. Ciri's out of options, by the way, so you're at the point now, he's 29, you've had to look at him for a couple of years.

What are you holding onto? I think his job is on fire. Yeah, I think it needs to be. You'd probably let him go soon. It's too defensive forward. 89WRC Plus seems actually about his true talent. Like I said, I think there's too many holes. They're going through a sorting through process.

So somebody could play their way. I would just watch. That's what I said in my piece. Just watch. This next month, somebody is going to rise out of this crew and have an everyday job. And somebody is going to be released in the offseason. Well, good luck trying to figure it out.

I think Ciri's going to get pushed off the roster. I think it's between DeLuca and Carlson for me as far as which outfield there's gonna pop and become more interesting. I think I might actually take Carlson even though DeLuca is getting the first crack if we're playing the long game here. Yeah, there's in his history in the major leagues

a good strikeout rate, but not great power, but some some better days with in-game power. So if you can sort of access his in-game power, that's that's what you need to see out of Carlson. Similar in bat speed to Johnny DeLuca to is Dylan Carlson. They're both little underwhelming kind of that light blue range 69 70 mile per hour average bat speeds. So we'll see if they add bat speed or if it's a pull approach

or what they're able to do. Yeah, Carlson does not value. No, I wonder. Maybe they try to get him to. That's something I really I have no feel for that. Can you look at a guy that hasn't pulled the ball, find something to look at and say, no, there's there's reason to believe he can do it.

I did hear from a director of player development that it's maybe the most possible thing to change The two most possible and I actually was talking a driveline. I was a driveline on vacation You brought your family to driveline on vacation I Mean the boys are into baseball so that's... The boys got to throw in front of their miss their miss target thing just like to see their command. We have edutronic video of them now. That's pretty cool. Yeah the younger one was like I wanted to do more but the older one was like can you get my edger video? I want to see it. But anyway and I talked to the director of R&D at the driveline about this. I think the two most,

Jack Lambert went up, the two most common things that you can change in coaching are this. Contact point, attack angle. Contact point is out front and the easiest, the cues that you might think of are go get it, let it travel, you know, and then attack angle is sort of how much you're kind of what your angle is to the ball. So that's a little bit like in the back, you might say, I want to be quick to the ball and you might say, I want to chop wood just to like get to the zone quicker.

Or you might say, you know, I want to, you know, get to plane or whatever it is. You know, there are cues there that you can change attack angle. So I would say yes, I would say that pull is something you can coach. And we've seen already that pull is something that's not that sticky, sticky year to year as some other stuff and takes a long time to stabilize 200 balls in play versus barrel rate, which is 50. So I think there's something to that, which means,

oh, that's something that people change and that they can coach and that is a little bit more of this. Within that, I was trying to discern if there's a group of players or a player type that's more likely to be able to make that adjustment with the coaching than some that just can't. They just, something about their hands, their mechanics that does not really work.

They have to change too much to actually get out in front and pull the ball more often. But that's hilarious that you took your kids to the drive line on the family vacation. What's going on with Miguel Vargas? I thought Matt Thompson had a good question in the Discord earlier this week. He was wondering if the problem

is actually Vargas' swing, and I was looking into it. He's similar swing speed to TJ Friedle, who we look at and say, hmm, that power wouldn't play particularly well outside of Cincinnati, but doesn't matter, because he gets to play half his games at Cincinnati. Vargas' swing's about a foot longer than Friedle's, even though the speed is the same.

Then beyond the swing stuff, there's the question about defense, which it doesn't matter because the White Sox are just so broken right now. They can let Miguel Vargas learn, try to coach him up, play him wherever they want for a little while and just let him play regardless of how bad the glove is. That was a luxury he was never going to have afforded to him with the Dodgers. So an obvious winner in terms of playing time. But is he good? Is he actually going to hit? Is he going to take advantage of this in a way that makes him even, you know, medium sized league relevant or possibly even shallow league relevant?

I don't know. I mean, the first highlight that went out on the Twitter verse was him boffing a ball. I mean, he literally had the ball in his glove and it bounced out of the pocket of his glove like 10 feet. So I did say in my thing that he if he makes it, it's not going to be defensive value. It's not going to be base running value. It's going to be it's going to be patience and contact and just enough power. And I did do a bat speed swing length swinging strike comp because chance that he has a little bit

of some natural ability bat to ball ability, right? And I found the perfect comp. I think it actually works almost across the board. Lourdes Gouriel Jr. Okay, that's a, if Miguel Vargas. He's not a great defender, right? No, yeah, he's not a great defender. Every well, I think it varies quite a bit,

but it might not be as bad as the Vargas downside defensively. But Gouriel also encapsulate maybe he's the upside of Vargas, you know? Like a guy who's gonna have a decent batting average and hit 18 homers. It's not bad. Didn't Gureel have an All-Star year?

So like, Vargas could have one All-Star. I know that people, yeah. One All-Star doesn't sound like amazing, but shoot, that's a regular. And he might be the only regular that was created at the deadline. That would be sad if that's how it plays out. I use bat speed, swing length, and swing strike.

The only other comps were Josh Bell, who just I think would have been better if he could have lifted the ball better. David Fry is on this list. David Fry actually has the exact same bat speed and swing length and a worse swing strike. Ty France is pretty close and Cody Bellinger. So there's a lot of different sort of ranges there.

This is the we're we're beginning to use bat speed and swing length to kind of try to figure out comps. But none of those guys has no doubt power. The other part of the equation, and it's not really known yet. I think people have a skeptical view and for good reason is do the White Sox have a coaching staff in place, do they have instruction in place to make players better, to improve skills, to do anything notable when they bring talent in? Like that to me is-

To get the upper reaches of these outcomes. Yeah, whether that they unlock it is a huge question. I think maybe there's a little more confidence on the pitching side than there is on the hitting side if you're trying to have some optimism about what the White Sox are putting together right now. Here's one that just bothers me. Hunter Strickland is getting save chances instead of Ben Joyce.

I don't think he's going to last long. Yeah, blown save Thursday, so that's probably just a week or two away from changing. I did notice though with the Mike Trout season-ending injury, I think the Mickey Moniac and Joe Adele playing alongside each other in the outfield experiment that gets two more months now They don't have to platoon so they can just let that ride for two more months and see if they if they like what they see That's a lot of swing and miss. Yeah, it's all Moniac Homer Thursday night though in the game where Hunter Strickland came in and eventually blew the save I noticed that Pedro Leon is gonna get a bump on the roster for the Astros as a result of Joey Loper Fito being gone Another guy that's put up some good numbers old for the level He actually was very similar to Joe be Loper Fito when I looked at it. Yeah, there's a slightly

Swing and miss but there's power there's speed. Yeah, he's on the right side. Maybe yeah, he's a slightly older swing and miss, but there's power, there's speed. Yeah, he's a little on the right side. Yeah, he's on the right side. That makes playing time a little harder to come by, but not impossible. I don't know, I'm still intrigued by Pedro León. I don't know if there's anything actionable here. It's more of a watch list situation for me. I know you see a lot of A's games.

Tyler Ferguson is getting save chances because Mason Miller's hurt, and then Lucas Ercig got traded to the Royals. Is Tyler Ferguson good? If you're looking for some saves, is this a good place to go? I don't know that he's great, but I picked him up in a bunch of places because he is the only guy and I have no idea. I mean, Mason Miller hasn't shown himself to be a quick healer in the past. Ferguson has like a 106 stuff plus which sounds fine but it is among closers would be kind of lower end. He's also weird

because he's got a four-pitch mix. So if you love Reisel Iglesias I guess Tyler Ferguson's the closer for you. I think he's just competent in a bullpen that doesn't have a ton of competency now that they've traded away Ersegg and Miller is hurt and so he's the guy that for now and it's not a team that's going to create a lot of save opportunities but as tepid as that recommendation can be I have followed it myself. Okay yeah but not not a must get in shallow leagues. I think probably the too long didn't listen. The only other closer

that I think Nate Pearson will take the job eventually in Chicago, especially if they start to trend out of the playoffs because then Hector Nieros won't be there next year and it would behoove them to choose maybe between Merriweather and Pearson for next year. I'm not even sure Merriweather is under contract after this year.

Would you rather stash AJ Puck or Nate Pearson? Puck is where now again? Arizona. Ooh, actually Puck I think. Yeah, because there is Merriweather for to battle with, and Pearson came out and pitched two innings yesterday, which is not normally the hallmark of your future closer. The other guy that I do like is Calvin Fauche. I think he's the guy in Miami. They used him in the ninth in a win that wasn't a save opportunity. That's a very slight hint,

a ninth and a win that wasn't a save opportunity. That's a very slight hint. But it was like sort of a I think it was a four nothing game or a five one or something like that. So I do think he is the closer there. So I guess I would go. And he has great stuff. Fochet. Puck.

Thompson got a save that Seawall was taken out of. But a lot of times that just means that Thompson was the guy That was ready, you know, it doesn't mean he's the next clothes used the guys you might have used already Yeah place so Thompson might have been your fourth choice. So I guess I would go Man that's hard maybe puck they've they've been talking about making a change in Arizona at least the writers have So I'm gonna go fochay puck. They've been talking about making a change in Arizona, at least the writers have. So I'm going to go Foche puck. No, Foche Joyce puck. OK, and those are all relatively inexpensive additions in leagues where they're available.

I don't think you have to go nuts with the fab budget on those. You mentioned Miami, Kyle Stowers, kind of in that Miguel Vargas mold of wide open playing time, didn't have it before. Lot of swing and miss in the brief times we've seen him in the big leagues with the Orioles, but we've talked about this before. When you're an up and down guy in particular, it's so hard to just get comfortable to make adjustments and now he's gonna have some window to do that.

The projections are kind of just okay based on what we're seeing right now. Kind of league average or even 10% below. But I'm not sure when you have up and down guys like this for three years, that to me lends itself to a more noisy projection. What do you think about Stowers? Like if you're just filling a UT spot,

Stowers and Vargas are both out there. Who do you actually like better rest of season value-wise? I'm gonna take Vargas just because in fantasy, I think that strikeout rate has a little bit of outsize importance because we're looking for batting average in most of our leagues. If you're not looking for batting average, it's still Vargas because he's going to have a better OVP. I mean, that's a weird thing about having these, oh, he's an OVP league guy. Well, no, if you still strike out 33% of the time, you're not going to have a great OBP either. So in terms of projections, Vargas has a 20 or 30

point jump on, on Stowers and OBP. So the only place where I would take, pick Stowers is if I just needed power and power alone and my batting average is already bottom of the league and I was punting batting average and just trying to get power. Because there are some signs in there. He had a 111.6 max EV in AAA last year. He does seem to get to barrels. His in-game power, he has some really nice isolated numbers, isolated slugging numbers in the minors in the high 200s, 314 this year at AAA for Kyle Stowers. So the in-game power seems to be there.

And he's going to get the burn, I think, because there, you know, he is 26 years old. This is it. What are you waiting for? I mean, Brian De La Cruz being gone, that's an everyday guy. You just swap him out one for one. You just let Stowers play, evaluate him for 50 games, and have a better sense going into next season, how much you wanna push him and learn about

what he is over a full season a year from now. I think he's getting this season plus next season. I think they're gonna give him basically 230 games or so to just go for it. One thing that is kind of flown on the radar for us at least is I do think that Xavier Edwards is just the shortstop there now. I know his current line is super babbip inflated but even if you deflate that babbip I do think he's a Brown to league average bat and so I guess that'd be

evaluating his defense over the next couple of months to see if he's there shortstop going forward, but I bet next year Edwards burger Sanchez and Stowers are in the lineup and you start to see replacements Davidus de los Santos at first Instead of Jonah bride that makes a lot of sense for me Connor Norby at third Hover manual the option Norby Hover Emanuel. The option Norby. Just play him. I know he's got a little service time, so you want to wait, whatever.

Play a call to Norby. Sorry, I didn't mean to cut you off. I got mad when I saw that. Their evaluation period over the next two months is Emanuel Rivera, Vidal Brujjan, Otto Lopez, and David Hensley. Those four guys are basically, I think, battling out for one infield spot.

Because next year, I do think De Los Sons, and I guess you could throw in Bry to make it two, first and second. So first and second are open. Rivera's, you know, 28 and he's had a bunch of chances. I don't, I think he's a bench guy. Brujjan could take it. Lopez could take it. Hensley's 28. I don't know. I think all of these guys, second, third, and first, they're kind of trying to find if one of them is more of a utility guy they can keep.

Maybe one of them is a starter. I do think Norby is going to take a job eventually from one of them. I wanna see how Edwards handles major league velocity over a larger sample because I think a player like that that controls the zone well, but doesn't have a lot of power, that could be the big thing that he may not do well

that could cause him to perform a lot, much lower level than what he did pretty much everywhere he was in the minors. I mean, Xavier Edwards was Above average every single stop except for triple a the first time as a 22 year old when he went back He was 30% better than league average First time and major leagues the first time but he doesn't strike out a lot. He draws walks He's a great base dealer

So he brings a lot of no longer value that. A Nolan, Sean Newell-esque Max EV in barrel range. Right, right, but if you're not there to hit for power, if you're just gonna play good defense in one of the middle infield spots, if you can be a good defender at a middle infield spot, this profile can play. Oh, actually worse than Sean Newell. Even lower Max EV?

Yeah, so whatever, not a lot of power there, but he's running a lot. So I think if you're in a shallow league and you're trying to make up ground for bags, Edwards is going to be high in the order and he's going to play a ton. He might actually be able to make an impact. Here's one in the NL East that is just like a low-key winner. Grant Holmes is getting a chance to start right now for Atlanta. They didn't add a starter at the deadline.

Max Fried could be back this weekend and Ronaldo Lopez might not be hurt badly. But Grant Holmes looks like that next guy up along with Bryce Elder that this Atlanta team might have to rely on. Eight Ks, one earned, five innings, no walks against the Brewers earlier this week. He's got two good breaking balls, throws a cutter,

got a four seam really throws more than the cutter. I don't know why. And Grant Holmes is a fun story. 2014 first rounder, you might remember him from the Dodgers. He's bounced through a couple of organizations with the A's for a long time. People were calling him Kenny Powers in the minor leagues. He's got the long curly hair.

And here he is, like getting chances to pitch on a really good team right now. The cutter might be new. It has been whirlwind path, 28 years old, three organizations as you mentioned, really pedestrian numbers until 2023 with Atlanta. I mean, his last year with Oakland, he had an eight ERA with a 20,

with a 14% strikeout rate and a 7%, 8% walk rate. So it's a really out of nowhere. So they must have made some big change with him, I feel like, and I don't really know what it is. It does make me a little bit suspicious. On the craft with Nick Pollock, we went through their options and we like Schwellenbach the best.

There was a debate between Holmes and Elder because Elder's stuff is in the midst of changing. He's one of the biggest, he's the second on my last rankings, Elder was the second biggest stuff increaser. So I do think that between the two pitchers, Elder has an outpitch that's better than any that Holmes has. But Holmes is your classic four pitch with slightly better command than Elder. So take your pick, man. I think it's really hard to figure that one out. Lopez is going to miss at least one start.

It's been announced. And so I think they're battling each other. The schedule may have a lot to say about this right now if I'm looking at the Braves schedule coming up. Here we go. We've got Schwalbach, Holmes, Freed, Sale, Morton, Schwalbach, Freed, Lopez. So Elders not even- They're at Colorado.

At Colorado next weekend. They're at Coors. So if that Lopez spot stays open, it's not a spot where you're gonna wanna throw either one of those guys. Yeah, and Holmes even drops out of their rotation when they have Freed coming back. Yeah, Freed's supposed to be back on Sunday. So it may not matter for very long.

I thought just the fact they didn't add more depth means those guys could get a few more chances, so we could be looking at them as streaming options down the stretch One name to keep an eye on for pickup purposes if he's eligible He hasn't pitched yet this season Eduardo Rodriguez could make his season debut for the D backs So just yet another injury name coming back Tyler Mallee getting close to for what it's worth if you're just scrambling looking for Potentially useful starters a lot of us are in that. At Cleveland, which I actually have found this year to be one of the hardest decisions.

Yeah, then the park was playing differently and the lineup's been a little better than we expected all year long. So I think I would wait and see. And then his next one, Edwardo, you guys would be versus Philly at home. So you may not play him until August 17th at Tampa Bay. Bake that into your expectation then if you are going to pick him up or bake it into your bid especially. Don't go too aggressive if you can't use him for these first couple of starts. The schedule is such a source of chaos. Jordan Montgomery,

who you know, if they were both healthy, I'd probably take Edward Rodriguez. They're or you guys. They're not my player type Everybody listening knows that but Jordan Montgomery gets at Pittsburgh Misses the Cleveland series does get at versus Philly, but then gets versus Colorado In his next start so Jordan Montgomery's two out of three starts over at water Rivas Let's go to the Giants real quick on our way out. You wrote about Hayden Birdsong, and by trading Alex Cobb and moving Jordan Hicks to the bullpen recently, Hayden Birdsong gets more chances to start for this Giants team. And I love it.

I mean, I think the knock on him is that the fastball does not grade well, but by velocity, it doesn't seem like it's a terrible fastball to have as a starting point, something to work with. Like he's been adding verticality to it. And that's, you know, I think again of how much player development happens in the major level. His curveball has added an inch of drop and his fastball has added an inch of ride.

So he's changing a little in front of our eyes. The slider is the outpitch. It's the dominant pitch. It's a very, very good slider. So and then the park is going to help him. You know, I think Birdsong is a pickup in any league. Yeah, I think Birdsong is going to be one of the better final two month pickups on the pitching side, just because the park's huge for him. He's got good stuff to work with.

But the park is such a soft landing spot because you want to use him for pretty much every home start just based on that. And then there's these road spots where you can probably use him too because he misses enough bats. Yeah. The hitting depth chart in San Francisco is going to get a little jolt today. They're going to add Mark Kana and they're adding Gérard Encarnacion who has been on an absolute tear when it comes to power. And he's the rare player that has come out of Mexico to do something. I don't even have his Mexican League numbers in front of him, but he also then just hit 10

homers and 146 plate appearances in AAA for the Giants. So he's just on an absolute tear. 26 years old, was poorly regarded prospect for Miami, but has really added a power dimension that makes the strikeout rate okay. You know, it's like a high strikeout rate guy that has become more patient and really access the power. Really nice top end exit velocities. 113.9. He's going to be put into this lineup, along with Marcana tomorrow. I think they're going to option Derek Hill. That gives them two righties on the bench.

Marco Luciano is a righty who's listed as a starter at DH. Wilmer Flores is not coming back. So one of these guys is just going to be a caddy At first base mostly from Lamont Wade jr. Who never plays against righties. Maybe the other one can make Michael Conforto sit Against lefties. So Wade jr. And Conforto will sit against lefties and Kanha and Gérard Encarnacion will play. I Don't know. I guess Marco Luciano's spot is the one that's open if Kanhaard Encarnacion will play. I don't know. I guess Marco Luciano's spot is the one that's open if Canha or Encarnacion.

Like they're battling for a full time spot. They'll all get playing time against lefties, but they're one of those guys will turn into a full time spot. I don't know. They can also platoon Mike Ustramski, I guess. So all three of them can just be

small side. But I do think that with DH open with Jorge Soler out of town, there is one spot that they can play for. If they play for the future, Luciano will get that job. If they play for the now, maybe Kana, Gerrard somewhere in between. So that's something to watch, I guess. Yeah. And then the guy that's been really great for the Giants that we didn't talk about really much when he got like an opportunity a few weeks ago.

It's Tyler Fitzgerald. He's going to become the shortstop lately. What are we expecting from him? Nine homers, seven steals, 301, 363, 602 line and 135 plate appearances. Very low to me in the sense that the upper level production has been good. It's just not. I don't think it was expected to come through at this sort of level in the big leagues. Yeah, he's toolsy. You know, he's got 99th level sprint speed. Arm strength is 31st percentile,

but they are in a little bit of a beggars can't be choosers situation when it comes to shortstop in San Francisco. I think he's over his head. 384 babb of 30% strikeout rate. But I do think he's a toolsy guy who can run hard. I bet you he'll hit the ball hard. And smoothness wise, he's a little bit smoother at shortstop than than Luciano. And I've been a big Luciano defender.

So I think that Luciano will be better than him with the bat. You know, they both have shortstop eligibility. They both might play a lot. So I would pick Luciano for this year. But next year, Luciano will probably lose shortstop eligibility. Fitzgerald will still have it. I do think maybe true talent. We're talking about a guy's 240, 300

OVP, 420 slugging or something. Maybe a 15, 15 guy or a 20, 20 guy. It is a 20, 20 guy. But there's also the chance he loses the shortstop job defensively and it's not a high OVP, so it's not going to be high in the lineup. So there are some things that aren't

great about the package. He's definitely not like a 300 hit or anything. But he's a toolsy guy who's got getting getting an opportunity right now. I'm going to take Fitzgerald over Luciano for this season. Fantasy wise, I think beyond that, it'd be silly to have it in that order. But I think part of the reason Luciano still three seventy one slug at Triple A. Come on, man, where's the power? I don't think he's going gonna steal out of bases either.

It's really weird, because he has a 50% hard hit rate. Like he hits the ball hard. Yeah. The max he's using there. He hits the ball hard. He doesn't strike out at a gross rate. I think there's a chance that ends up being an okay category for him eventually, where average is actually an asset for Marco Luciano.

I don't know what we're gonna get in the short term though, so I think it's a little more of a wait and see for me, even though we've been excited about Marco Luciano. I don't know what we're gonna get in the short term though so I think it's a little more of a wait and see for me even though we've been excited about Marco Luciano for a long time. We are going to go very long episode today. Apologies to our producer Brian Smith for the extra work. We appreciate all the hard work he does on our edits. We had to clean up the trade deadline. Still some straggling little bits there. Yeah and Eno wrote in detail about it too so be sure to check that out. TheEletic.com slash rates and barrels. Two dollars and Eno wrote in detail about it too, so be sure to check that out, theealledict.com slash rates and barrels, two dollars a month gets you in the door. If you don't have a subscription,

find Eno on Twitter at enoseris, find me at Derek the Riper. That's gonna do it for this episode of Rates and Barrels. Have a great weekend, we're back with you on Monday. Thanks for listening.