Rates & Barrels - MLB Returns to London, Paul Skenes v. Shohei Ohtani, A Fork in the Road for the Jays & Cubs

Episode Date: June 7, 2024

Eno, DVR and Trevor discuss baseball's return to London for a two-game weekend series between the Phillies and Mets. An exciting matchup between Paul Skenes and Shohei Ohtani that took place in Pittsburgh earlier this week, how they would game plan trying to pitch to Ohtani, and two teams -- the Blue Jays and Cubs -- facing a critical stretch of schedule in the middle-third of the season. Rundown 1:18 MLB Returns to London with Phillies-Mets 12:21 Paul Skenes v. Shohei Ohtani 18:41 The Game Plan: How We Would Pitch to Ohtani 28:11 At the Fork — The 2024 Blue Jays 32:44 It’s Not (All) Vladimir Guerrero Jr.’s Fault 41:37 At the Fork — The 2024 Cubs 50:31 Adding From the Inside: Cade Horton in the Second Half? Follow Eno on Twitter: @enosarris Follow DVR on Twitter: @DerekVanRiper Follow Trevor on Twitter: @IamTrevorMay Join our Discord: https://discord.gg/FyBa9f3wFe Join us on Fridays at 1p ET/10a PT for our livestream episodes! Subscribe to The Athletic: theathletic.com/ratesandbarrels Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Welcome to Rates and Barrels, it is Friday, June 7th. Derek Van Riper, Trevor May, Eno Saris all here with you on this episode. Major League Baseball returns to London. We got a two game series this weekend between the Phillies and Mets. We'll talk about the implications of that. We had an epic showdown this week between Paul Skeens and Shohei Otani. It was all anybody could talk about

once that happened on Wednesdays. We're gonna dig deeper into that matchup and we're gonna have our game plan segment outlining how we would pitch to Shohei Otani or instruct someone else to pitch to Shohei Otani. Yeah, I would tell someone else to pitch Generally good choice for you. Trevor you pitch We're also gonna talk about two teams facing a critical stretch of the schedule the Blue Jays and the Cubs and try to get

A sense for what they might be doing as the trade deadline approaches It's just under two months from now and if we get an update on Juan Soto, the health of his forearm, we'll pass that along as well. He's been sent for some imaging. So we begin with the series in London. Baseball is back in London. Of course, the Cubs and Cardinals split a two game set abroad last season. We have seen some very high scoring games in the previous iterations of the London series going back to 2019 when the Yankees and Red Sox combined for 50 runs in two games. 50-5-0. It was 92 degrees for a game in which those two teams combined for 30 runs and then there was of course a 20 run game. The next day temperature dropped by 20 degrees, but it was the most runs ever scored in consecutive games in that rivalry.

That's how much offense was juiced then. They did make some changes to the dimensions. They moved the centerfield fence back a few feet for that 2023 series. And good news, if you're at the game this weekend, mild temperatures expected. So we're not going to have a 90 degree day juicing up offense as they play at London Stadium again. But you know, you've been in a position of trying to be a baseball fan in London and you had a previous love for the game. What were the challenges that you ran into trying to love baseball abroad? Time zones, man. It's like a real thing. I mean, you all remember when the Korean games were, and at least in Korea, they have local baseball.

They have a local tradition of liking baseball. When I was in London, I was trying to watch games at all times. Basically, the only games that are viable at all on a regular schedule are one o'clock weekend games. You can see those at 9 p.m. in London. So that means you're limited to basically seeing one or two games of your favorite team. If you became, you know, a fan like I was, you know, you could see one or two games a week. Then on top of that, you don't have the same streaming abilities. There's, you know, there's the can you even see it is one question. And then let's say it gets to be World Series time and you want to see it with other people.

Now I bring this up because football, and I bet you part of this is football did it, you know, like, you know, we got it. We want to globalize like football, you know, football is once a week. And so there are pubs. I saw them in Frankfurt. There's American bases. So there are pubs near American bases where expats get together with people who just love football

and they go on late on Sunday nights and they see the one o'clock games and maybe a little bit of the beginning of the four o'clock games, but that's it. But football's once a week. So you could do that and you're not missing that much. You're seeing most of your team's games. Can't do that with baseball There's not that same tradition London doesn't have American military bases nearby

What the people that will be at the games will be a large part expats? You know because like me people who are there who still like baseball and be like, whoa We can get to see baseball some people that will be there for the novelty of it Just because what is this like baseball's here. Let's go check it out, you know? But I don't know that it'll create lasting people because it's just not really set up. The pubs there can be open all night. They aren't usually they usually close at one and it takes a separate license to be open at like three or four in the morning, which is when you would have to be open if you wanted to watch a World Series game. So I don't know what

kind of lasting footprint you're putting there. I think it's one of those things that works in novelty. But if we ever say like, try to have a team in London, I don't think it would work. So I don't really know what the lasting effect of this will be. It's just maybe a few more social media impressions in Europe that you can report to your bosses. I don't know that it'll actually have a big effect on the future of the game. Trevor, I know that you, just like Eno and I, want to expand baseball.

We want it to be as amazing as possible. Does this achieve that? Do the series in London actually help grow the game in a tangible sort of way? I think Europe's just tricky because of the way that our time zones are different. Like a nine hour difference because London's fairly west too, so if you get deeper into the continent it's even worse. And when you're flopping it's a nine to 12 hour difference. It's middle of the night when it's middle of the day, so it's just so hard. It's honestly one of the major reasons why soccer or European football, as I'm going to call it right

now, hasn't, hasn't, it's slower to grow here. I think there's a lot of people that want more sports, but it's just in the middle of the night. You'd rather watch it live, like watching, you'd rather watch it live and commentate on it live. You can be on Twitter and like. Yeah. So social media is more valuable than for you and like you can participate with more people watching it. My brother-in-law is English and his and he has to get up at three in the morning to watch his Sheffield United Blades lose. So get relegated every two years. Newton Town, what up? So it's the same thing for at least this series specifically. Now the Mexico city, the Puerto Rico, the Japan, Korea, like these are all places that getting support from Major League Baseball and having a stronger connection

because they have a history of baseball already. I think it's probably adding more value to the game, at least right now, but you know, it is fun. It's a special event that breaks up the not monotony of the season a little bit. And because there are games every day and every monotony of the season a little bit. And because there are games every day and every single and it does get a little bit like the same Groundhog's Day a little bit, even for fans. So I think there's value there. But I don't know if the

return on the investment, at least for the European side of things, is going to long term really make any lasting impact. I think if you're a fan of baseball already, you're more excited about games at Rick would feel this season just because it's a venue that has such historical significance, right? It's more in that vein that a typical fan is gonna get excited, whereas if you watch a team all season, you're almost irritated that the game's at a different time,

or if you have season tickets, you're not going to this game, or if you are going to go to the game, it's gonna cost you a ton of money. Big question coming out of the London series Is there anything we should expect after this trip a hangover effect from the extra mileage right even if you perform well in? London are you worried about coming back with jetlag and having that drag your team down? For a week or two weeks after this trip in the words of Pete Alonso

It's a choice jet lags a choice Which The words of Pete Alonzo, it's a choice. Jed likes a choice. Which to an extent, he is right. Like you can be really, you can force yourself to stay up on that off day and just really kind of sacrifice your happiness in that off day to get yourself right. And that does work, or you can do it really fast if you really want to, and that's really important to you. But again, you're only in London.

You're not, how often are you in London? So there's gonna be guys with families and stuff that are there like I can't just like stay up and then go to bed at like, well actually with families might be easier. Try to keep your American schedule as much as possible. Either try to keep it or you just try to flip it and then just worry about flipping it back in four days. To be honest the one day off as the buffer is simply not enough. It's barely. It's really like most science says three days. Yeah, it's barely enough to like go,

from the West coast to the East coast, which is a rule. You have to have an off day when you make that trip across, but it's not a rule the other way. This is more. Like I'll never forget, this was played the Dodgers. We had a back to back, we played Dodgers Giants, Dodgers Giants in 2021. And they played us at our place.

And then we went to their place right after. And that's the year, if you recall, the Dodgers and the Giants won 106 and 107 games. So this was a tough stretch. Yeah. And we had the Sunday night baseball in New York. And then the next day we played in San Francisco. So we had to fly into the night, but the Dodgers flew back and then the next day we played in San Francisco So we had to fly fly into the night But the Dodgers flew back and played the next day to they got boat raced and we got boat raced both of us

Just got destroyed in our game back because you know We were used to like it was one in the morning to me when I went in the game And it was the day before so it was just like why are we playing a night game when we both have to do this travel? I understand. We're too very two good teams or two big markets, but like maybe pick somebody else this time. And that just wasn't what they did and no one seemed very happy about it. But that's three hours back.

Now imagine nine hours forward. Don't be surprised if the next series they come back, guys might be dragging a little bit. You just see, you don't see sharpness. You see guys kind of like with something eyes a little bit. They're just gonna have to adjust. You'll notice the guys who have been around for a while will probably be the most alert, the quickest

because they've done, they know what they're doing. Veterans know the espresso routine. There's some data on this, which is that I believe it's actually going, I forget which direction is harder. There's actually some data I forget which direction is harder There's there's actually some dad on like which way is harder, but generally every every time zone you cross Makes you worse in the next game

so that there's like real there is in the numbers like travel fatigue and that You know, this might actually be some part of the picture for why the Mariners you know seem to kind of under underperform versus their projections sometimes and or just come like a game short the Mariners travel more than anybody else in baseball yeah we need expansion in the Pacific Northwest I think that's been something we've been banging the table for for several years now more games last year Oakland A's were the farthest last year. I know that for sure. From a team in Oakland, you know, I don't think that'd be interesting.

Seems like a market Sacramento. That's more north. Did you guys see the Oakland Ballers game? I mean, it was like it was balling like they were they were they they filled that place up. They were still kinding it together when people showed up. They had vendors, they had trucks. I haven't seen a food truck at an Oakland game for two years now. Wakamatsu doing a good job over there. Yeah, they showed that people like baseball in Oakland. That's not the problem.

That's never been the question, really. I mean, we've known for a long time people in Oakland love baseball. Let's talk about this matchup from earlier in the week. Paul Skeens and Shohei Otani, right? I think there's been a handful of played appearances already this season where the baseball world, at least the online baseball world,

has converged and sort of stopped and been in awe, right? And the first plate appearance between Paul Skeens and Shohei Otani was one that was circulating a ton. This is incredible. It's a three-pitch strikeout. One-on-one inside, 100 up and in, one-on-one over the plate. All fastballs, all swinging strikes, and people were like, oh, that was legit. That was just, hey, here's my fastball, good luck.

And you always wonder, you just wonder, like okay, what's gonna happen next time? This is the hardest thing to me about being a starter as opposed to a reliever. You're gonna see that guy at least one more time, probably twice on a typical day, and Paul Skeens, we've talked about him, he's got three quality pitches.

What's the what's the outlook in the second plate appearance what's your game plan there what are you going to do differently and this is where you start to wonder we start at two two and off the plate and then he tries to go the same spot yeah and it misses and leaks out over the plate and Otani takes him yard. So Otani gets his revenge right away. And I started to think about this from two angles. How much of that was the inexperience of Paul Skeens relying very heavily on his fastball?

The pitch that Otani homered on was the seventh fastball he saw in nine pitches over those two plate appearances. And how much of that falls on Skeens? How much of that falls on Yosemite Grandal, who was behind the plate, catching for the Pirates on Wednesday? Because I would imagine for most of Paul Skeens' baseball life, he could get away with that. He could throw fastball after fastball after fastball,

and most hitters he's seen to this point in his life weren't going to catch up and do damage like that on that pitch. This is really interesting. There's a few things to notice here and I noticed this in his first outing as well so I'm going to try to quickly hit on some of these points. The thing about where Paul is in his career, there's not a lot of innings in the professional scene. Grandol is a veteran but you're going to call their best pitch until someone tells you otherwise. And he is right now in the getting experience. So giving up a homer like that

is actually really important for his development because one thing I did notice is his patterns are pretty stark in terms of like, I think that the words I used was like, he pitches, he's definitely fresh out of college, he pitches in a college way because he was so much better than most of the people, like to the point where he could tell them.

Is this like, establish the fastball, establish the fastball, and then start working in the other pitches as you go along in the second and third. And certain accounts. To your point, he hasn't had, how many times has he gone third time through the lineup in pros, even in the minors?

Probably twice or three times now. Maybe once or twice he's even gotten in, and there's a point to that too. And that's a new layer he's gonna have to learn. I've been mentioning this a lot. Like we're not gonna get another Max Scherzer if no one ever does it in the minors. It's true, but he's got to do it at the big leagues.

Now I think that he is smart enough and he has got the work ethic enough. Like everyone who says he picks up things so quickly that he's gonna realize this stuff and Grandol knows how to catch. He's been a good catcher for a long time in terms of clawing games. So it's just a learning experience in there,

but he does get very pattern oriented. For example, he doesn't throw sliders to lefties for strikeouts. He only throws it over the plate for a strike. He never throws it with two strikes. He only throws a splitter and only a fastball. So like eliminating pitches with him is easier than most people right now when he learns

to kind of eliminate that a little bit learns That he can have confidence and pitches that he didn't need to like throwing a slider for a strikeout in college He didn't want to he don't could touch his fastball So like it was just taking a risk that he didn't need to take and so he would just blow him away And now he's gonna have to do that Especially with guy like Shohei the thing about Shohei is he learns and he takes shots and takes big swings and he misses a lot. Like sometimes he lulls you into a false sense of security. So Paul's feeling really good about that fastball. His whole life no one's touched it really and maybe he was like I just

he's not going to be able to hit it because I have a really good one today. But Shohei Otani is one of the front runner for the MVP and he can get to it. If you do it enough, he can get to it, but he learned that. So there's things that he's gonna adjust to. It's gonna be really interesting to see like the next five, six, seven outings for Paul, how these patterns start to adjust a little bit and how he adjusts in real time.

But it was interesting. One last thing too, there is a rule of thumb that I didn't actually learn until a little bit later in my career that makes a lot of sense. And we would generally think this way. He yanked that fastball. Usually when you're trying to throw the same pitch again, when it was off the plate,

if that means you're bringing it back over the plate in order to get it. So if he was trying to throw up and in, you're bringing him back over the plate. The chances that if you miss that spot, and he hits it hard, go way up. So if he wanted to go fastball there, he needed to go up and away.

But I don't know if he's as comfortable as, if I throw this up away, if I miss, it's a ball, I'm gonna walk him. And that's why he tried to go in, because he knew I can leak over the plate, and maybe my fastball's good enough to get, like, he didn't touch it before, so even if I make a mistake here,

I still might get a swing and miss, and then it was a homer. That is probably what happened Earlier in the way that he got to that three ball count if I remember correctly He threw two change-ups that didn't hit the zone So you've got yes, he Paul skeins so hitani And an o1 count he threw a change-up that missed down and in or down away. And then in a one, one count, he threw another change up that missed or a splitter basically. And so basically in that three, two count, he was saying, well, I've tried twice to hit my change up in the zone.

I've got a lefty here with two strikes. And so my choices are fastball changeup and I can't get the change up in the zone right now or to this bat or I don't want to so I'm gonna go with my number one but as we'll see from some of the heat maps I wonder if there wasn't a better choice in location up and away is one although that is a strength rotani. He has this kind of foot in the bucket, like he clears his hips and then he brings, it's like, it's really weird.

The swing has some resemblance to Ichiro's, but it's like the power version of that. Max power version, yeah, for sure. And so I think like that's why Otani's best power is actually Oppo. Like sort of Oppo center because he kind of he does that Chris Davis, the K2, where he like kind of steps in the bucket, brings through. And so when he's coming through, it's a little bit more of a bat path that's going to go Oppo rather than a pull. I mean, he does pull, obviously, but he lets the sort of location, now that one was pulled,

but that's more of a location-based pulling. Like I think his, on most balls. So like out over the plate has its own problems. I mean, you know, if you look at, let's say, we got his fastball heat map here. So out over the plate is a problem. If you're looking at this, it's all red over there for Shouhi Itani.

And you can see why they might have thought in on his hands was a good idea because there are some spots in there that are lower. If you're asking someone to hit that little three inch by three inch box and not the one next to it, I think you're in trouble. So I don't really like when I look at this, I don't like any high fastballs to Otani. I want to throw low fastballs. And I know that's not always the best, but Skeens does not have a riding fastball. He has a fastball with lateral movement.

So I would have had him throw that, you know, low and away basically, which this is going to be a theme with him. Low and away is not a place that you would throw a sinker-ish type fastball to lefties in the past. But if you can see here, sinker low and in, the front door is open for Otani. And then if you look at sliders, like there's actually the next slide is sliders. It's actually blue near his back foot and low and away. So basically Otani's strengths are countered to what the normal lefty strengths are.

He's good out over the plate and up and away. He's not actually as good back foot down, drop the hammer. He's actually not that good low and away. He mostly just tries not to swing at that. So I know it's tough to rely on command, but generally you're working in bluer spots. You know what I mean? Like when they were trying to hit up and in, there was a little white spot they could have hit,

but there was a lot of red around it. If you, you have a little bit more margin for error if you pitched Otani low. And so I would focus on, if I had a sinker, I'd try to front door him low and then do a back footer low and just be peppering that area with movement from different directions basically. That would be my plan to Otani is, and if I didn't have a sinker I would still just

throw in the low four seamer and play my slider off of that. So I would just like kind of a low, lower, lowest approach would be my approach with Otani. Do you think that's a good approach? I agree with that a lot. I think that he has also over time adjusted his swing to be able to get that top of the zone. I think that's one of the big reasons he's kind of blossomed into the hitter he is now too because he has a natural swing, the block. So like he's got that swing path. He can do it naturally pretty well and so they got

him thinking about this. There is a couple major things that I have in my report that I've never mentioned I don don't think, on this show. And one of the things I look at is where first pitch swings are for certain pitch types. Guys who swing at the first pitch are looking for something specific. They want it to be a happy zone. That's like a happy zone that you got to my happy zone.

Otherwise, I'm not gonna swing. You're throwing exactly where I wanna crush it and I'm gonna swing at that every single time. That is like the first thing that great hitters Decide to do and so if you go look at first pitch swing Especially guys who swing fairly regularly in first pitch you can get a good idea of what they're trying to do and how they feel Like they're gonna be pitch where our Tony's first for swings all up and in It's a big red spot that moves up and in yeah

He chased out the plate sometimes but he sees bit bit, so he's made a concerted effort to get to that pitch. I think they were just acting on what they had seen at bat before, because of course, you don't have a ton of experience yet, and you haven't faced a ton, you only faced them once, and based on what you saw, you went with it. And then, honestly, that is generally the best thing to do

if you're not quite certain you don't have the experience yet, but you need to make sure that whatever happens, you then learn from that for next time. So first pitch tells us a lot. And then the slider down and in is something that wasn't there before and has become there more, I think, over the last probably 162 games.

Because, like in the zone, it's hilarious if you overlaid the slider blue zone for Aaron Judge and the slider blue zone for Shohei Otani, they're in the exact same spot, but they're lefty and righty hitter. I would throw the same slider to both those guys because they just can't hit it hard. But the problem is the risk of mistake

slightly over the plate. For example, if you go back foot to Shohei, a one, two, and he takes it, because it's just not, it's not competitive, whatever, he gets out of the way, and then you try to bring it back over the plate, that is when you're giving him the best chance. Then you'll do the same thing they did with the fastball.

And the chances that you leave that in the middle go up as well because your eyes are actually moving back as well. And if you leave it in the plate, both those guys, it's like a, yeah, I can't hit it if you get it past this little line of demarcation, but if you miss one inch to the other side, my X-WOBA then goes to 1,000.

So that's the risk reward, it's high risk, high reward. And unfortunately those two guys, that's kind of the one blue spot. So you have to take high risk, high rewards. That's why they're the players they are. I was just thinking about that first pitch approach, Trevor. If you see that tendency and you see a place where you can maybe get a first pitch swing

and you're Paul Skeens and you have that fastball, you could know that he wants to swing at that pitch and challenge him there because your pitch is good enough. At a certain threshold, Skeens should be above the threshold where he can try to poke the bear a little bit. I mean, you want swings at your dominant pitches, right? Or the vice versa, because there's not, there's the down of the waist is blue.

He's gonna give me that for free. He just doesn't want it. So he doesn't want that wide. I think early in the count, I would just blue. He's gonna give me that for free. He just doesn't want it. So he doesn't want that wide. I think early in the count, I would be not necessarily looking for swings. I would be looking for free strikes. Exactly. And that's most of the time.

Most of the time, yeah. Relievers might go for swings, especially if it's like you're a guy with a cutter that throws hard. You can throw up and in because you want a ground ball double play or something. Like you want an early contact and you have a pitch that knows

it's gonna light their eyes up, but they're not gonna be able to get it on the barrel. That's something you might be confident, give you more confidence in it but that's kind of a very specific situation and it's a little bit more rare. I think we had dabbled with the idea of Paul Skeen maybe having a cutter at some point down the road that would make him even more filthy right? Just bring bring that to have a fastball that moves in on a lefty like that. His fastball his other pitches have the profile of someone that might be able to do it could make him extra nasty One last thought on this before we move on I noticed that in the third plate appearance

They started him off differently. They went slider change fastball Completely different sequence. They were trying to steal a strike with that slider and they got it. Let's show that it real quick slider away That's what you're talking about They were trying to steal a strike with that slider and they got it. We'll show that real quick. Slider away. That's what you're talking about, Trevor, is the idea that he's basically trying to steal a strike. That's a backdoor slider. Yeah, and he doesn't swing at those first pitch either. There's blue there.

Right, so they did what they wanted to there. And again, the change up, not in the zone. And that's what set up a high fastball again that Otani put into play for a single, I believe. Yeah, too much, cut too much plate with it too. Was out over the middle part of the plate. So by that point, Otani had seen enough times he wasn't gonna miss that.

But it's also the same mistake twice kind of. I don't, I'm a little surprised there's not a single fastball from Skeens low in the zone to Otani. Took a different path to be wrong or beaten the second time at least. I guess that's learning in some sort of way. That's right, he threw other pitches. He stepped on a new rake. It's the mantra of Rates and Barrels in 2024. We're stepping

on new rakes this season. That's the game plan. That's how you pitch to Shohei Otani. It's that easy. We say it every time. I think, you know, actually, I think one thing that makes it even harder is that I think there's been such a focus on pitching high in the zone that maybe people's command low in the zone is not as good as it once was, because, you know, you're like, I want to dot it up here. I'm thinking about up here. I'm thinking up here. Like, especially loan away to have a loan away blue zone right now.

I think as a lefty, you know, you're probably not a lot of pitchers who've been doing like we need Leo Mazzoni back, you know, start dotting the dart and dotting loan away with sinkers and maybe it'll work again. They are less vulnerable to those pitches in 2024 than you would have been 20, 30 years ago. Let's move on to at the fork. This is a segment in which we're taking a look at some teams that are kind of in the middle of the pack right now in terms of playoff odds and record

and trying to figure out what direction they should go both short and long term. And of course their upcoming schedule and how they perform between now and the trade deadline will probably nudge them in one direction or the other. But we're going to start with the Blue Jays. They're the first team we're looking at as a team clearly at the crossroads.

They are 30 and 32 entering play on Friday, 14 games behind the Yankees with a 19% chance of making the playoffs according to fan graphs, only 5.2% chance according to baseball reference. It's weird because just a few years ago we thought the Blue Jays were that next perennial great lineup. The top to bottom, they would do damage, they wouldn't strike out, and they'd just be a problem one through nine for opposing pitchers to deal with. It just hasn't really been that way.

Last season hasn't been that way. This season as well, they're hitting 234 with a 310 on base as a team only a 370 slug and I know we're in a down offensive environment through the first two months and change of this season But just a shade below league average by WRC plus with a team 98 What did you say their chances making the playoff word? I'm looking at fan graphs. They've got 19% 19% according to fan graphs 5.2 percent though according to baseball reference Yeah, no love from the baseball reference projections now the power thing is the strangest part

I think for the Blue Jays right only five teams in Major League Baseball if it fewer home runs in the Blue Jays this year And some of it comes back to what they do with barrels. They're 21st in pulled barrels They're tied for 19th if you combine last season with this season. So this isn't a new sort of problem for them. Lots of directions to go here, but who's responsible for this Blue Jays lineup falling short to this point?

How much of this is on the players? How much of this is on the coaching staff? And is there a problem perhaps of organization talent maybe being just on different pages right now? What's strange about it to me is that like you've got some other teams that are making the similar adjustment. So Cleveland has been very pro making contact. San Diego right now leads the league in batting average and is second in strikeout rate.

And you've got Toronto and Houston's always been, it is again, a league leader in strikeout rate. It's always been a bet there. But the real good teams pair that with power. So San Diego is singling people to death there near the bottom of the league in ISO. And Cleveland has been surging in power. Houston's always put together good power with that strikeout rate. Kansas City right now, 19% strikeout rate 159 ISO. Toronto, 19.2% strikeout rate 136 ISO.

So like if you are going to focus on making contact, it has to be powerful contact. Slugging is more predictive of future success for your team than OVP right now. I think it's just a slugging game and some of its personnel, Beau Bichette is just a guy who goes the other way. Some of it is, I think, just randomness. Like George Springer has been changing his profile. He's been pulling the ball a little bit more and having more success recently. But some of it might be a decision and some of it might be a decision as Jeff Good brings

up that the park changes have made it a little bit rough on the hitters. Maybe they feel they need to go the other way more. You'll see park changes even if the hitters don't say they don't they don't change for the park. You know, Boston lefties push the ball and Boston righties pull the ball for the green monster I bring this up all the time so if there is a change in Toronto even without them knowing they could be changing their approach and whatever it is right now is Not their best approach. Yeah, I mean I think on a player-by-player level you look at Bob Shett and George Springer They've been well below projections to the first two months and change Alejandro Kirk, too

He doesn't come up as often as a disappointing player only because he's not necessarily a core guy for them, he's more of like a secondary part of that lineup. He was a guy that made a lot of contact and it was powerful and now he's just making a lot of contact. Yeah, the quality of the Kirk contact has gone down considerably since he arrived. Justin Turner is finally showing some signs of age,

but not to the point where you could blame him. And I think when the J's aren't humming, Vlad Jr. kind of gets a lot of blame and doesn't always deserve it. He's missing a few homers this year. That's the one part of his profile that's a little light, but otherwise he's actually been fine in terms of his overall value.

And I also think you have to take a macro look at Vlad Jr., right? If you look at players during the wild card era, going back to 1995, guys that have 3000 or more played appearances through their age 25 season, compare him to sort of like players, guys that debuted young, got a lot of experience. He's not playing at the level of Pujols or Miguel Cabrera or the first ballot hall of famers.

And I think when Vlad jr. Arrived in the big leagues there were expectations that he could be that kind of player right but as a hitter He's performed more like Manny Machado or Rafael Devers I realize they play on the opposite corner, but that's a pretty good Baseline to have through age 25 even Freddy Freeman even this year. You can't blame it all on him He's been nearly 40% better than the league average. Yeah, and I've seen some reactions to Vlad Jr. trade rumors that were like,

if my team trades for Vlad Jr. I'm giving up on my team. And it's like, wait a minute, he's still good. Just because he's not a Juan Soto or a Miguel Cabrera or an Albert Pujol doesn't mean he's without value. So I do think blame is inappropriately placed on Vlad jr. At times we've talked a lot about him in the show as someone that has some ways that he could maybe adjust to unlock power more consistently. But his per 162 homerun average is 30. He's a 30 homerun guy year over year up to this point in his career. I don't know what else

people actually want from him. Great contact, great batting average. The defense goes up and down, but yeah, I think Devers and Machado make a lot of sense because there were some flaws to their game and they're not, I mean, they could be Hall of Famers depending on the back half of their careers really and longevity. So I tend to look at these things though, in terms of like, which way should they go from a little bit of a sort of front office perspective. And so what I see is, you know, a lot of this talent is under is under contract for next

year. And I'll be losing Justin Turner, you say, Kikuchi, Kevin Keir Meyer, Jimmy Garcia, Daniel Vogelbach, Danny Jansen, Trevor Richards. It sounds like a lot, but it's going to give me some money. When those guys leave, I get another sort of $40, $45 million to spend. I have Kirk, so if I let Jansen go, I have a guy who can play there. Two relievers, a backup DH, a guy who's who's been transitioning to the backup center field, and an aging DH type in Justin Turner. Like the hardest thing to replace here is Kikuchi. But if I was going to sort of play the middle as a

front office executive there, I would trade Kikuchi, keep everybody else, and make another run next year. Try to spend that $40 million on short-term deals, on starting pitching. There's usually like Corey Kluber for one year and 10 million, that type. There's gonna be people like that where you can buy some veteran starting pitching

and just hope for better years from your stars at the same time. Yeah, Trevor, do you buy that the starting pitching and just hope for better years from your stars at the same time. Yeah, Trevor, do you buy that the window is still really open for Toronto? I mean, you've got Vlad Jr. and Bo there through 2025. So you could kind of look at those two guys as the foundation and say,

let's keep pushing chips in this year and next and then go for the rebuild. Or are you better off saying, hey, look what Cincinnati did a couple years ago. They may have torn it down a year quicker than some people would have, but they also didn't spend that much time rebuilding because they had guys that had some time left

who had more value in the trade market. They got a lot of talent back in their deals. Yeah, can you go that direction instead? It's interesting because it's always about timing and who's available as well. So those conversations are gonna be constantly happening behind the scenes. They have you know, they have four guys that they could go get, you know, for a Vlad or whatever,

just because it's the time, someone needs him so badly at the trade deadline, those things happen quick. But I would say a general strategy is wait till they're in their platform year before you make any massive decisions, especially when they're part of a core that you were counting on being this kind of, your best chance at like a dynasty style success. And for the teams that don't have another core

that's like growing, kind of like the Orioles have had over the last couple of years, now that core is up there and they're banking on this core being the team that does it. If you don't have another one that's in like high A or something that you're excited about, you're even more hesitant to make these decisions. So their pieces are weird. It's interesting because so many guys aren't free in so after next year, or at least they're big players like Jordan Romano, like you mentioned, but

chat and Vlad, I don't know who the next core would be. I don't know what the next group of prospects is and if they exist yet. And if you're building from a, we're actually getting, we're trying to build a new core You would wait to build that new core until you're certain this core isn't gonna get the job done And there's still time on that clock in my opinion So I feel like having B Gio didn't really he was supposed to be like the third musketeer there And it didn't he didn't really kind of turn into that, you know, he's a solid player But he's you know, he did the power wasn't quite there, and he's been okay, but he's not been on the

same level. And so it's kind of a two horse race. And you know, we mentioned, they've been a little bit inconsistent. I don't know what the culture is like there either. So, you know, there's some of that going on. So it's really like, what can you get? And if, if a really sweet deal comes across, you know, the desk over there and they're like, hey, we can get three prospects for Vlad or we can, you know, we can, Yimmy Garcia will bring a prospect over because he's throwing really well this year

and someone needs, everyone needs relieving health at the deadline. Those are interesting. I don't think they will tear it down though, unless one of those deals comes through for one of the guys who they considered part of that, that up and coming core that they had for the last five years.

Unless a great deal comes for that, I would assume they'll at least wait until the off season to do something like this. And then there's 12 teams that make the playoffs. They can conceivably get in at 82 and 80. So it's harder to make that decision now. I don't envy GMs that have to make this decision now because technically there's four teams truly out of it at the deadline these days. So it's what do you do?

What do you do? And the deal's got to be sweet. So I'm sure there's a lot of conversations happening, but pay attention to that. The only nice thing about there being so few sellers is that if the Blue Jays decide to jump in, they will immediately have the best players to sell and they could take advantage of it being a seller's market and, and maybe make off like bandits and be back in three years. Um, spot high demand. Yeah. Yeah.

That's definitely something that's worth talking about. But you know, the flip side is like, you know, there are some decent free agents next year. Scherzer, Corbin burns, Max Fried, you know, Jack Flaherty is back on the market. So, you know, there's Shane Bieber's a free agent. He'll be recovering, though. I don't know. Luis Severino. There's some, you know, pitching.

You just get Kikuchi back if you wanted. So I don't know. I don't know. I tend to think conservatively like they're going to be like, no, we have. We have these really good players. And, you know, at least right now, they're saying, give us another month. I think if they fall further below 500, they fall seven, eight games below 500 between now and deadline time, then there's a little more pressure to say, OK, this isn't going to work.

I'd see the case Trevor's outlined to say maybe wait till the offseason when you've got every team in the league possibly trading for some guys that would match up better with you on a trade. But in the current landscape where more teams make the playoffs, there could be an edge to having more in your cover to trade away. So that could be the thing that does entice them

if things break just the right way. I think the three of us are more on the, you should keep going for it while this window is open because your next window might be a little further away. The system's not great right now. You don't have a clear cut impact, amazing position player yet.. Arjun Demala down the road could be that kind of guy, but Aurelvis Martinez and Addison Barger look like maybe solid regulars rather than guys that are going to make a massive difference once they get to the big league level.

Let's shift over to the Cubs. I think the Cubs' direction is a little bit easier to parse because they are in the NL Central, right? They're only five and a half games out of first place. They're one below 500 entering play on Friday. It's reflected in the playoff odds. They're 39.3% chance of making the playoffs according to fan graphs, 53.8% according to baseball reference. Kind of a mid-pack lineup so far right there, 97 WRC plus. A bit more swing and miss than the Blue Jays who for their Power deficiencies continue to do a good job tempering whiffs the Cubs have that extra thump though the main thing if you watch the Cubs

It jumps off the page to you their bullpen is bad. They need relievers Yesterday right their bullpen on the season has a 443 ERA. It's 23rd league wide a 137 whip 25th league wide. So there's traffic, they can't keep runners coming around. It's a problem right now. So beyond the bullpen, what else really needs to be fixed for the Cubs as they try to chase down the Brewers and make year one with Craig Council at the helm

a success in Chicago? You know, one thing that I think there's a little bit more production needs to come out of some of their guys. I just wrote about Danzbe Swanson today, and one of the weird things is he's hitting ground balls on balls that are kind of middle middle. And so there's something there. His pull percentage is like higher than it's ever been,

so I think he's actually too far out in front, and he's rolling over things that he should be hitting for line drives. That's like a little bit of a timing issue. I think he's just sort of stuck a little bit out in front and he's got a good track record. He actually was doing a lot of things under the hood that made me think that he is a good bet.

I found this secret sauce that if you are doing well at swinging at pitches in the zone and not at pitches outside the zone and not at pitches outside the zone and barreling the ball and hitting the ball hard and you're less than league average, every single player that did that last year got better in the second half. So Dancy Swanson seems like somebody who's going to do better in the second half. Seiya Suzuki is back. Cody Bellinger, you're hoping that he has another level.

I mean, it's not, you know, 15% of the league average is not bad, Bellinger, you're hoping that he has another level. I mean, it's not, you know, 15% of the league average is not bad, but you know, you want him to kind of go on a homer streak or something. So, you know, the offense, I would give them like a B minus or something so far. They're, you know, not a top offense, but you know, they've got some upside there.

You know, I tend to look at that relief squad. I think the starting pitching, it's not the best starting pitching in the world, but it could go if the offense gets a little better and if they improve the bullpen. But I don't see really obvious things they can do unless they trade for like, do an early trade for Tanner Scott and say, well, I know the command is bad, but he would immediately have the best stuff in our bullpen. I think they're a little bit too happy sending Naris out there and saying the results are fine.

But it's like, that is not a really good closer. You know, if you put Naris up against other closes in the league, he's bottom five, maybe. Naris doesn't look like past versions of Hector Naris either, so that addition hasn't quite made the impact they would have expected. Trevor, how important is it for the Cubs to maybe get one starter that's a notch better

than what they've got? Because when I look at their rotation, I see a lot of mid-rotation caliber guys, good pitchers, guys that get you to the regular season that are good at run prevention, but not necessarily guys that are going to be High quality get through the lineup three times in the postseason against playoff caliber lineups So is this a team that needs to go out and actually try to make a splashy?

Acquisition for an ace that they could have even beyond this season or maybe are they looking at? What you know mentioned on the horizon guys like freed and burns and free agency going to 2025 and looking at what Eno mentioned on the horizon, guys like Freed and Burns and Free Agency going to 2025 and looking at that as their ultimate solution? I would lean more towards the going to grab, the Burns are Freed to be your splash. At least go and grab a one, two. I mean, I'd say Burns is more of the take ball, game one right now anyway,

and then Freed's probably more of the two in my opinion. But like they, just because of the strikeout rates at the moment, but like that might be something that they're more comfortable in doing. But if they can grab a veteran guy that has had a high ceiling in the past and that they could get for not expensive, I don't know why I keep going to Severino

in my head right now. Because he has thrown well, not as well as a Flay, but he has thrown well and he's got good stuff. And he's a rental so he won't cost you the best process. Yeah, he's a rental so it might shore that up a little bit and then if it doesn't actually work out, right, it's not that big, now you're just in the same boat, right? I think the bullpen is the biggest reason

and there's one big thing because I think that there's a mindset thing here that happens that sometimes gets looked over a little bit the same way that the lineup does. So for example, as Seiya gets going and becomes more of a weapon, then Cody Bellinger's gonna get better. And so pitchers are now having to worry

about more guys not beating you. As Dan's restart's hitting, you know, now they're like, they have to like really pitch for five guys in a row as opposed to like. Which then puts more pressure on you already before you throw the pitch and then that gets you more opportunities to hit. For example, Soto going to the Yankees,

like the reason Aaron Judge had his May is because Juan Soto was there. That he was able to do that because they were so worried, they got so worried about Soto because of how hot he was, and Judge was struggling, they started getting more mistakes, taking advantage of him than he just had a historic month. And those two being back to back,

you can't pitch around both of them. So that everything needs some version of what. It's traditionally been hard to prove that line of protection exists, but we do know, for example, that hitters hit better with people on base. So that speaks to your sort of stress, defend them better. It's hard because it's isolated and anecdotal and every pitcher is different

and how they think about things. But generally, like the general first impression is, especially if you're a guy who's young and going to face those two guys, like that is you get more of that than you would have if it's only one of them. Like I was thinking about Bailey Falter up against the Dodgers yesterday, and I was just like Like in his honest of hearts somewhere Bailey falters going Yeah, that we're all thinking that it's happening. There's very few people who are just completely Like maybe scenes is up there be like I'm dominate them. I don't care, Dodgers, whatever. But now he's thinking about, oh, I got got a couple times.

So maybe I shouldn't be that confident. I gotta be a little bit more, you gotta be willing to kinda swallow your pride a little bit. But to kinda take that to the next level now, the bullpen feels more pressure when the offense isn't scoring runs and vice versa. If the offense is scoring a lot of runs, they feel like they need to score more runs

because the bullpen can't hold games. So like once that becomes a thing, like under the surface, pressure starts to form in those groups because of how the other one is performing. But that's when you see when teams are dialed in, usually all of these things are working together. So maybe if their bullpen gets shored up,

that actually helps the offense feel a bit more loose and comfortable because they don't have to score 15 runs to win a game. So I would say address the thing that is most glaring and that's the bullpen. Go get a guy like Jimmy Garcia would be a great guy to add to that bullpen because he's a fireman type guy, seventh inning guy. Maybe Naris is a little bit better with that because they're different looks and maybe now you got two guys that are pretty solid back there as opposed to just the one guy who's throwing pretty well and everyone else is struggling.

Getting a couple veteran guys to maybe help that out I think would make the biggest difference for that team. Yeah, I think if you get one more starter back, which they will soon with Jordan Wicks, maybe you have a little buffer from one of your back end starters, Ben Brown who we do like as a starter could end up being a multi-ending weapon out of the bullpen. That changes the complexion of things really quickly. He's got great bullpen stuff too. He could be a guy who just comes out 100,

throwing 91-mile sliders. But I think they kind of need him too much in the rotation right now. So it's an interesting thing. I do think he'll run out of innings a little bit. And so in the postseason, yeah, I think you go with Shota and then Tyon and Ben Brown is on active duty ever since, you know,

after that, you know. Warming up every inning for the whole series. Steel and Tyon, but you're like Ben Brown, like you might be coming on in the fourth. I think the wild card for the Cubs too is Cade Horton. He's dealing with an injury right now, so he's out three to four weeks, still at triple A, but I think we'll see him before the end of this season. Maybe he's part of the bullpen solution in the short term, even though he could be that homegrown ace. From inside the organization, we got our trade acquisition, it's Cade Horton.

You're right, that's the way they could spin it. Doesn't cost anything. That's the best though. I don't know, 22 Trevor May? We got him coming back, guys, that's our trade. I mean, look, if teams that need bullpen help are making phone calls, you might get a call from Jed Hoy. Yeah, maybe get out there and do some bullpens.

Yeah, are you ready? They might need you. Hold on, I'll practice real quick. No. I got a podcast, I can't. You want me to do three cities in one week. No Staying home a lot of top 100 prospects in the system They could trade guys just below that even if they were gonna go get another starter like a Luis Civarino

James triantos could be a player that brings back a rental starter They have guys that aren't necessarily clear parts of their core the other teams would be interested in So I think that's what makes them dangerous as a team that can go out and make additions mid-season. One other spot that's kind of an open question right now is the role of Christopher Morrell and it looks like he's been kind of unlucky on balls in play so far this season. We knew the defensive shortcomings were there coming into the year but I thought when we had UniversalDH added a couple years back I thought it would save players like Christopher Morrell and just based on the way Craig Council's been

Talking about him seeing that they don't really have that defensive home where they could even hide him right now it seems like there's a lot of pressure on him in the short term to either turn things around offensively or possibly lose a large share of playing time even though it seems like he's a Like a kind of a core guy in some ways like you watch when you watch the Cubs He's kind of a core guy in some ways. You watch, when you watch the Cubs, they feed off of Christopher Morel a little bit, which is strange, because he hasn't been there for three, four years, right?

Yeah, there's just something about him where it seems like the team kind of rallies around him. It's the Whiskers. It's the Whiskers. It's the Whiskers, eye black, that just tells you all you need to know. Yeah, he's the energy guy. He gets so excited.

He just loves being out there, and that's infectious, 100%. Even just the Cubs games I've watched and I've just noticed and of course this isn't backed by any sort of data. But I've noticed him hit the ball really hard a few times, just right at people. To where it was noticeable to where I'm like, oh, that's three in a row. That's right at shortstop, right at third base

and then he hit a laser into the gap that was just run down by some top three outfielder. So he is getting a little bit unlucky. There's also some stuff that's not great about how he's played, but if you can create value for yourself as an energy guy, I highly recommend it for any young guys trying to get up and establish themselves. If you can add that to a clubhouse,

it doesn't go unnoticed for sure. Yeah, I think that Brett Phillips elongated his time in the game. Exactly, that's a great example. He elongated his time in the game because people wanted to be around him. People, even if he was just the backup center fielder, he was gonna be a good addition to the team.

And he could pitch for you. Morrell, what I like is that he's cut his strikeout rate and increased his walk rate, cut his swinging strike rate. There was a lot of good stuff under the hood. He was an extreme, extreme puller. He's kind of pulled that back a little bit. He's still hitting the ball really hard. So I just wouldn't be afraid if I were the Cubs.

And you can see it in the game log a little bit. I wouldn't be afraid of using him at DH. He's been used at DH four out of, I'm eyeballing this, but like basically a third of the time in his last 12 games and that seems okay to me. You know it's like we're trying to you know get you you know there at third base defensively but I think the bat is valuable enough to keep him out there the energy is there so I'd continue to play him as much as I could and I don't think he's going to lose playing time other than like maybe at third base as they switch him over to DH. Just just just embrace it. You know, for what it's worth, I do think that energy guys could be good fits for DH because if they have sort of that natural energy, because one of the things that doesn't work at DH is not being energetic

and not, you know what I mean? Like you have to manufacture your energy. You're not out in the field. So David Ortiz does it by being a top step, you know, like future manager type. Yeah. You know, like up fastball coming slider slider, you know, like calling out pitch day types and, and yelling at yelling like, oh, and bringing people out and being like, look at his elbow next time and he's got a tip, you know, that's how, you know, David Ortiz did. I think it's a skill. There's a different little bit of a camp

in Saber Metric circles. Some believe that DHing is not a skill. Some believe it is a skill. And I sit in the camp that it's a skill that some people, like I think JD Davis had a hard time with it. He was talking about it in San Francisco where he's like, either I gotta be on the bike and if I'm on the bike, I'm in the dark.

And if I'm in the dark and I come out to the lights, that's weird. So, but if I stay in the lights and stay in the game, then I'm not warm. So, you know, he doesn't really like DH and I could see how, you know, not everybody would. But if Morell is a top step guy anyway, maybe you just take advantage of that and say, all right, be top step. Be yelling out, be your be who you are.

But, you know, not with a glove. I think that that could work really well in the long run. I think the bad luck has been there so far for Christopher Morrell. Matt Shaw, another name that could eventually take over at third base. Maybe they want a bridge guy that could be on the wish list. If we turn the dial to buy on the trade maker 3000 target acquired I think we should for this Cubs team who are you getting which like if you're gonna add a short term third baseman I thought Matt Chapman made

sense for them this winter obviously it's not on the table as clearly right now maybe if the Giants fall they might've been one of the last teams in on them. Yeah, so Uncle Ted and the Live Hive saying Pete Alonso would be sick at first base for the Cubs. I mean, yeah, like that's the type of thump, type of impact hitter that you could put out there and that would make a pretty big difference to that lineup in one fell swoop.

That's a good one. They have to give stuff up for that though, but they have a few guys and the Mets are looking to add some of those younger guys. They haven't had really a lot of prospects in, I don't know, 10 years, or like a big crew coming up. So that's something they're looking to do. I mean, Pete's so interesting

because so many teams could beat Pete, that kind of guy who could hit 18 homers in a month if he gets really, really hot. He's that kind of guy who could hit you know 18 homers in a month if he gets really really hot he's that type of guy so I mean I would say that's a that's a really really good one correct me if I'm wrong Michael Bush also plays third base doesn't he? Yeah okay he can. You can put him there. Kind of like Vientos is the third baseman kind of? Yeah yeah kind of like that it's not it's not malpractice but it's not ideal. Okay but I mean if that's your stopgap I mean it's not likepractice, but it's not ideal. Okay, but I mean, if that's your stopgap,

I mean, it's not like Morell is lighting it up over there either. So it's like, you know, if that gives you, opens up a spot to where Morell is a DH and then you have a real bopper at first, that might be the way that that gets done. And it's Chicago. So like, you know, even the opportunity,

even at least having conversations, if they wanted to say, hey Pete, we would like to extend you or whatever, at least it's a market that could conceivably figure something like that out as opposed to maybe other places that just simply will not be able to do it. So he might not even need to be a rental

and that might make it interesting. I mean, he's probably gonna be a rental everywhere. I don't know if anyone wants to commit to the type of money he's gonna command if he goes, but that does make a lot of sense to me. There's been trade interest about Ryan McMahon. The Rockies have said, you know, we're not open for business on that name, but I would listen if I were them.

Yeah. You know, and, and McMahon would be- Rockies should always be open for business. Rockies. And McMahon, I think would be a really good, a good fit for them. You saw Vlad Guerrero play third this week. Roddies. Yeah. And McMahon, I think, would be a really good fit for them. You saw Vlad Guerrero play third this week. It'd be interesting if our two teams at the Fork made a match and they start playing Vlad at third.

But I mean, that's sort of like, that's the same problem. Your shoehorning a bat into third is probably not a great third baseman with the glove. And then if you start looking at the bad teams, I guess Jake Berger could be a shot there, but Jake Berger is also the type of player that the Marlins could hold on to because he's under team control to 2029. On the other hand, he's 28 years old. Yeah, that that that extension of club control on a player that age with that skill set doesn't matter much

Yeah, doesn't matter. Yeah, you move it You can see that right after I'm sure right after Jake Berger finally unloaded condo Whatever he had in Chicago to after last year's trade is to go back. It goes back I mean, I was looking at Heimer Candelario's name Jamer Candelario's name for a second and With three years on that deal. I don't think the Cubs really want to eat up the rest of that money so I don't see a natural fit unless it's Berger but what if we built a kind of a fun little mini big deal which is Tanner Scott and Jake Berger that fits a lot of your needs as someone rooting for a different team the division and if that's their move I'm

like cool great you got a little bit yeah you think that's that's like a that's a medium move I'm cool, cool, great. You got a little better. Yeah, you think that's a medium move. I'm cool with that. Yeah, good luck. Yeah, you're not worried about that if you're the other teams in that division. You're like, yeah, they got better. That's not the Pete Alonso, Edwin Diaz package or something. No.

That might make you go, oh, you did what? That would cause more problems for other folks rooting for teams in the NL Central. We are going to go. So I think we're on the buy side on the Cubs, if that was not clear. And they have a lot of interesting ways they could upgrade that roster.

But on our way out the door, just a reminder, you can follow us on Twitter, find Trevor at IamTrevorMay, find Eno at EnoSarris, find me at Derek Van Ryper, find the pod at Rates and Barrels. You can also join the Discord. The link is in the show description.

If you got a question for a future episode, fire it into the Mailbag channel on there. If you enjoyed the show, be sure to like this video on YouTube. Leave us a nice rating review. Have a great weekend. We are back with you on Monday. Thanks for listening.