Rates & Barrels - NL Wild Card Matchup Breakdown

Episode Date: October 1, 2024

After an incredible Game 1 of Monday's Mets-Braves doubleheader, the NL Wild Card round matchups are set! Eno and DVR discuss the potential carryover effects of the tight schedule on both clubs as they go on the road to face the Padres and Brewers. How will the Braves navigate their pitching plans if Chris Sale is unavailable? Will the bullpens wear down as series progress? Plus, is this the most complete Padres team that AJ Preller has assembled in San Diego? Can the Mets' lineup propel them deep into October, or will the Brewers' mixing and matching approach in the pitching staff continues to work in the playoffs? Rundown 3:34 Doubleheader Carryover Effects on Atlanta's Pitching 11:39 The Best Padres Squad of the Preller Era? 17:49 Limited Value of Regular Season Meetings 23:28 The Depth of the Mets' Lineup 34:40 The Brewers' Pitching Flexibility 41:00 Full World Series Predictions Follow Eno on Twitter: @enosarris Follow DVR on Twitter: @DerekVanRiper e-mail: [e-mail] Join our Discord: https://discord.gg/FyBa9f3wFe Subscribe to The Athletic: theathletic.com/ratesandbarrels Hosts: Derek VanRiper & Eno Sarris Producer: Brian Smith Executive Producer: Derek VanRiper Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

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Thursday this fall. You can find us wherever you listen to your podcasts. Welcome to Rates and Barrels, it is Tuesday, October 1st, day 1 of the 2024 postseason. Feels like day 33 already. You know, and I are just worn out I think from how the season ended. Monday was like a month's worth of baseball news and excitement smashed into one day. It was that epic. And the focus of the day was the doubleheader between the Braves and Mets. The first game was one of the best regular season games I've seen in a long time. The situation as we described yesterday was if the Braves and Mets each won a game in

that doubleheader they would both make the postseason. If either team swept the other would miss the playoffs, and the Diamondbacks got in. Now, the walkaway line was, well, they split, so the Braves and Mets made the playoffs, the Diamondbacks didn't. But how we got here was absolutely absurd. I mean, the quality of the game off the charts, right?

Drama upon drama. It looked like at one point, Spencer Schwellenbach might throw a complete game shutout. That actually looked like it could happen and that by doing that, he would save all of the Braves A relievers from having to pitch on Monday. And then they'd at least have a very arrested bullpen

going into the start of the series with the Padres. But it didn't wait out that way. Then the eighth inning happened. The eighth inning happened. The Mets go nuts in the top of the inning, erupt for six runs. The Braves come back in the bottom of the inning and take the lead, only for the Mets to take the lead and hold on to win in the ninth.

And the win probability chart on this one courtesy of the great Sarah Lang's is Probably the best we of the entire season and it was Like the dude they did the worst possible thing to each other in game one to take a bad situation I've having to play two games before getting on flights to go play on the road the next day They basically just punch each other in the mouth 15 times in game one. And made each team use their best relievers and, uh, and relievers that they use twice, Reisil Eglacius was used twice yesterday. If he gets used again today, that's like a secret back to back to back.

For the Mets, I think, you know, it's a little bit better because at least they didn't use Diaz in both games, but that was a back to back to back. For the Mets, I think it's a little bit better because at least they didn't use Diaz in both games. But that was a back to back for Diaz and more than three outs, or at least multiple innings. And so it was crazy. Tyler McGill throws the hardest he's thrown all year and got tons of whiffs and pitched really well. Shwellenbach played really well. It was a really tight game into the eighth,

and then the bullpens just blew it all up. And I think that's a little bit of a preview. And it's a review and a preview, is that this is gonna be the difficulty for both of these teams, is they're not the best bullpens to begin with. And then they are going to be tie red. I mean, they are going to be so tired,

just in terms of travel. And imagine having a champagne shower, getting into an airplane, you know, a half hour, hour later, showing up in San Diego, and you don't even know who's going to start your game. I mean, everybody in the bullpen is like, oh man, we are in for it. But I suppose it's that time of the year for relievers. They know that they slog through it all year and then this is going to be the part of the year where, you know, they pitched till their arm falls off. I remember really prominently in my youth, Rob Nen threw to his arm, literally, you know, was done. I mean, he threw through a whole postseason and got the Giants to the cusp of the promised land.

Never was the same again. It was just out of steam for good after that. But yeah, those are the main questions, I think, for both the Braves and the Mets is how bad is the carryover effect? We'll start with the Braves and Padres matchup. And by the numbers, this is still a very good Atlanta team, How bad is the carryover effect? We'll start with the Braves and Padres matchup. By the numbers, this is still a very good Atlanta team,

one that's weathered the storm of a lot of injuries this year. Ronald Acuna Jr., Austin Riley, Michael Harris, Ozzy Albies, at least in the case of Harrison Albies, they're back. They're playing, they're key players on this team. Around all of that, they've been a league average offense by WRC Plus. Marcel Ozuna played in every single game of the regular season hit 39 homers put together one of his best seasons at the plate

That was huge for them given the number of guys they were missing They do have a good bit of swing and miss but there's tons of power They finished tied for fourth and homers even with all those absences second in the league in barrel rate So they're still a dangerous team, right? This is an Atlanta team that's been in the playoffs seven consecutive seasons. They've got the experience box checked as well. The questions come in on the, how do they get through the series pitching wise side?

Because the pitching is good. When everyone's healthy, it's good. But the big news of the day after game one was that Chris Sale wasn't going to start game two. He was initially penciled in to be the starter. If the Braves needed to win that game, we found out 20 minutes before first pitch, he was scratched with back spasms.

We haven't seen Sale pitch since September 19th. So something's been lingering there for a little while, but now the concern, according to David O'Brien, who covers the Bra there for a little while, but now the concern, according to David O'Brien, who covers the Braves for the athletic, is that they don't expect sale to pitch in the wildcard round. The rosters are due after we finish this recording. So by the time you hear this podcast, you'll know on the roster, off the roster officially for the series.

But it looks like it's tracking as though they're not going to have Chris sale. So you mentioned just the impact on the bullpen and how much Iglesias had to pitch in the doubleheader. Not having Sale leaves them in a position to bring somebody up who hasn't been in the rotation to start game one or to start Max Fried on short rest because Fried started Friday so it'd be on one day less rest if they were to use him in game one and that's with a bullpen That's already been heavily tacked. So I think they're going to go the route of

Tapping further into their depth that could be Ian Anderson who hasn't pitched in the big leagues since 2022 Ian Anderson's Starter wasn't amazing in his in his attempts at a rookie at a rookie season This is a weird situation for the Braves to be in. Schwellenbach started game one of the double header, so he's not gonna be ready to start a game until the weekend. Basically, he'll start in the next series. Even in terms of roster construction,

because we just got the news that Justin Verlander is not on the Astros' wild card roster, which is amazing, but that has something to do with probably they feel like their starters are in good shape and that they wouldn't necessarily bring Verlander out as a reliever. So that was their choice. But if you think about the Braves, they faced a similar choice in that you would rather have short relievers in most of your spots, but then you have to actually dedicate

some length because your guys are so tired. So you're going to have to dedicate, you know, they're going to maybe have to have both Smithschaver and Ian Anderson up, you know, which means fewer slots for relievers. Like, so they're going to have to dedicate some to starters that would not have even been on the roster to begin with so that it changes not only who can pitch, you know, in terms of like rest and stuff, but just who's on the roster. So they have some really interesting decisions that come up and, you know, I don't begrudge them that. I mean, they made it into the postseason and that's number one.

I don't know. I think I would start freed on short rest because I don't want that bullpen so taxed already. Do I think that Ian Anderson and Smith Schaub are going to come up and give me six or seven together? I don't even know. So then if you went that route, if you were to start freed on short rest in game one, you'd have more information in game two,

like how well did Fried pitch, which relievers did I need? And then you could decide how you use those depth guys as opposed to using them right away. Another day for sales back to get better too. Yeah, well that may matter or it may be completely inconsequential. Might just be a non-factor based on whether or not he's even on the roster, but I think they have

some really difficult decisions to make. I think you can do an injury replacement though. I mean, if you're just like, oh, it looks like Ian Anderson's hamstring hurts. Yeah, that kind of funny business does seem like it's looming, given the roster rules for the postseason. Even on the hitting side, you know, which is one of the things that's interesting about Ozzy Albies is that, you know, he's been turned around by

this injury that he's got. So he's not batting left-handed because his left wrist hurts and he's better left-handed. I was a little bit surprised to see him hit that home run off of Edwin Diaz in the ninth because he was batting right-handed. He has less power from the right, and he doesn't, but he saw but, you know, he, he saw Diaz well. And I think to some extent he could see what Diaz was trying to do, which was high, fast balls, low breaking balls, and then just one breaking ball wasn't low enough. And, and, and Albies is over it.

So, but you know, another one is Ramon Lloriano, who did have a good game in that first game. He did some weighted bat training in the off season. He's had the best barrel rate of his career this year, but he's also had one of the higher strikeout rates. And you can kind of see it. He's in a little bit of a grip it and rip it where it seems like he's trying to homer in every pitch. Which may be what they want from him, you know,

that might be okay. And then Jared Kellick has been sitting for large stretches because Loriano has been playing. So he was kind of amazing when he came in and got a single off of Diaz, bringing back that old trade. You know, Kellnick for Diaz. You know, I just don't know how great he can be with so much rest. So there are still some questions on the offensive side too.

You know, Olsen's season has been so up and down, but at least he's on the better swing recently. And then Harris has been on fire. So you know, Isen's season's been so up and down, but at least he's on the better swing recently. And then Harris has been on fire. So, you know, I would say yes. They can match the Padres offensively, I guess. Yeah, it's different offenses. Braves has more swing and miss, more power. Padres are more balanced.

I would still take the Padres offense, I think, because they were the kind of offense that led the league in strikeout rate, led the league in batting average. It was not a stat, I really care about it, but doesn't capsulate what they do, which is make contact, make powerful contact. And they did it, especially in the second half of the season

with the best combination of strikeout rate and isolated slugging. So they really have a good offense, and I think I would rather, I would take the Padres offense over the Braves when it's constructed. One thing we've talked about throughout recent post-seasons especially

is the difficulty of navigating a lineup that has different types of hitters in it, not just lefty righty, but also guys that have upper cuts that try to barrel the ball versus slappy guys. And I do think that's something that the Padres have done pretty well. I mean, you have two very much like feared hitters in Machado and Tatis, right?

Just your prototypical like middle third of the order, the great hitters. But then you have Jackson Merrill, who could win the NL Rookie of the Year award. You have Luis Arias, who's an extreme contact hitter. You have Jurksen Profar, who's shown really good plate skills throughout his career, and he's put together a fantastic season. Zander Bogarts kind of fits more into the contact first, but has enough power to burn you if you make a big mistake.

Even Jake Cronenworth kind of profiles like that. So there's not a lot in terms of easy spots in the lineup, maybe 8-9, which is kind of typical for most lineups, right? You get to the bottom, you catch that catcher spot, or if Donovan Solano is in the lineup that day, you're not like fearing him, but even Solano tends to be a low K-rate sort of guy that can just be a stressful at bat instead of an easy at bat at the bottom of the order

for the opposing pitcher. So I look at the San Diego team and think, maybe this is the best balanced lineup that AJ Preller has built. It's strange to think that now compared to where we were a year ago when they had Juan Soto, but it's just getting there a different way

and being the best team in the league by strikeout percentage, I think can make a pretty big difference in the post season because you're prolonging bats throughout every matchup and putting more pressure on opposing starters and opposing relievers. Yeah, yeah and I just went through the heat maps real quick as we were talking and I knew the Jackson Merrill heat map because I've watched him enough. He's kind of a low ball slugger. He has that kind of inside out swing where he can take the low ball either to right, you know, either to left or to right.

And so he's a low ball guy. Trey Cronoroth is a low ball guy. Tatisa Machado are high ball guys. And so you right there you have, and then you have Arias who's just, you know, not going to slug it, but he's just going to, you know, put it in play. So it's a really, it's a fun group. You know, then on the pitching side for the Padres, you know, I took the top eight pitchers or the top four starters and the top four relievers

for each squad, used context neutral, stuff driven projections. And the Padres had the best rotation and the best relief squad. Now that might be partially because Michael King is included in the four starters, and in a game, in a series with three starters, maybe I should have just done three. But I think it's still kind of interesting that, you know, if Musgrove or you Darvish

stumble at all, they've got Michael King to come in. So you know, and then if it becomes a bullpenny game, they don't, they're not only four relievers deep, you know, it not included in the four relievers is Brian Hoeing and Adrian Morahone. So like, those are really good pitchers as well that are, you know, five and six on the, on the chart behind Robert Suarez, Tanner Scott, Jason Adam, and Jeremiah Estrada. So I think they have a really good pitching squad and they're rested and they're ready and they're set up exactly as they wanna get set up.

I mean, I cannot pick the Braves or the Padres. I think the Padres are set up to go all the way. Yeah, I think the way they're built, they don't have a clear weakness. I think that helps. I think the way they're built, they don't have a clear weakness. I think that helps. I think the rest in this series relative to Atlanta certainly helps. And I think the bigger part of liking the Padres even

beyond this series and believing they could make a run is that they don't seem to have any major problems with the Dodgers, right? I mean, they met 13 times in the regular season. The Padres won eight of those games. And I think the way they played them in the playoffs in recent years, too, having a series win over them in October just adds even more confidence. Right. It's not the first time over the mountain.

It's not the first time having to slay the giant. And I think that also bodes really well for them, aside from the quality. And we've talked a lot about the concerns the Dodgers have, just trying to put the pitching pieces together, right? Yamamoto coming off the IL in September and working his way back is a huge lift for them. So Yamamoto and Flaherty can be there one-two, but as any series goes longer.

But how deep will Yamamoto go, even in the single game, and then that third game is Nack, Bueller, Bullpen. I mean it's all hands on deck. If you get them to three then the advantage swings in your favor. Do you think it's fair to say that the Dodgers are sitting there hoping that the Braves find a way to get through because even if the Braves win the wild card round in two games, three games, whatever it ends up taking, they're going to be taxed as they continue to play.

There's not enough rest built into the postseason for them to fully recover from the way their regular season ended. So despite the fact that Atlanta has a lot of postseason experience as well, is that the clearer preference if you're the Dodgers waiting to see the result of the series? Yeah, I guess, but the Dodgers waiting to see the result of the series Yeah, I guess but I you know the Dodgers having been in those in those clubhouses and been around the team a fair amount

They exude confidence. Let's say I Don't know that they would ever even admit to something that you just said out loud. No, they would never would they It's the most disgusting form of of actual conjecture. Like there's no there's no one that would say that on the record. They could maybe get some off record comments or you could get someone who recently played to say, oh, yeah, they they they know they rather have Atlanta. I mean, if you look at the season series, I don't think the season,

the regular season matchups mean a whole lot overall I think they're just like a proof of concept of okay one team didn't completely steamroll the other so More I took out that they were tight games That you know that there was even a game recently in the last series where? the Dodgers won, but they went ahead with you know a big inning and You know Tatis comes right back and hits a homer. So there's at least that sort of, no, we're not scared. So I think that they've slayed some of those demons. If the Padres have trouble, even in this Brave series

or at any point, I could see it being somewhere around sort of Musgrove and Darvish where, you know, they've been away. They've had, I don't know exactly how to describe Darvish's situation, but like they've had absences and they've had some up and down moments coming back from those. And right now it feels like, oh, Musgrove, the new slider, and you know, the VELO's creeping up, and you know, this is the real Musgrove, and he's fine now. You know, it's tempting to say that. And with Udarvish, you know, just getting him looking normal again seems like that's the win. But we've also seen Udarvish struggle with like,

again seems like that's the win. But we've also seen Udavish struggle with like what like he thought maybe tipping in the playoffs one time. And we know that as he's gotten older that home runs have been an issue. So Udavish running into a Braves lineup where you know they barrel the ball well and you know you could that's that's where things go wrong is is in that place. I think Cease is you know an ace is ace and King is such a great security blanket that I don't think it's a worry, but that's where you're kind of circling, you're putting a couple of little question marks next to that. I mean, I guess you can put a question mark next to Robert Suarez, who's been great, but he's also been very one note with the fastball.

And what I've seen from his most recent outings is a real attempt to get the change up back in there. The change up he can't command as well. So that can get him into bad counts. I think he should be the kind of reliever that like Trevor May talks about. Just take the walk. Don't give up the homer.

Yeah, don't give up the homer. Take the walk, put him on first, strike out the next guy. Then with the fastball and change up in slightly more equal pairings, one thing that we saw from Pierce Johnson last night was that Francisco Lindor in the doubleheader was very obviously sitting curveball. I mean, he just waited forever and yanked it and knew it was gone the minute he hit it. And Pierce Johnson's throwing that 75% curve ball situation.

And so I think with Suarez, if you can get that fastball percentage down to like 60, 40, or, you know, and just sneak in some cutters and change-ups and just change what people are thinking. What we've seen on some of his game ending homers for Suarez are left-handers getting fast balls away, which is where Suarez lives and taking it oppo. And that's just, that's just, that's them knowing what's coming and putting the right swing on the ball. And that's what Suarez needs to combat a little bit.

Yeah, with Suarez, I, I'm not sure. I'm not sure I'd make that toggle. I think generally that approach of trying to just strike the next guy out works, but I think he's living below the threshold of a strikeout rate where I'm comfortable steering in that direction. Like Robert Suarez. Edwin Diaz is more like a 40% guy. You can walk the guy 40% chance

he's gonna strike out the next guy. And I think the switch, if I had to guess where it is, is probably somewhere in that 30% range. If you're at or above 30%, you can probably afford to just give up the walk and move on. Also depends on your tendencies and the park you pitch in. But in San Diego especially, you're less likely to get punished by the long ball.

So I think you can be a little more generous with the free passes and live to tell the tale. And he's a 23% guy, strike out right, right? So maybe it's toggling fastball location. Go up and down so that you're not so predictable to left-handers. Whatever it is that he's too predictable in my mind. But you can throw Tanner Scott out there

for save situations. You can throw Jason Adam out there for save situations, you can throw Jason Adam out there for save situations, Jeremiah Estrada had a great run and had an overall great season, he's fantastic in the late innings as well, so even if they don't like what they're getting from Suarez, they have plenty of late inning alternatives. I mean, Adrian Morre-Holme would probably be the third

or fourth best reliever on most teams. You mentioned earlier he's probably the sixth best option in the San Diego bullpen right now. That falls into the good problems to have folder. I don't like to just live in constant agreement with you, but I think given the circumstances for how Atlanta got here, it does feel foolish to pick them to go into San Diego and win. I say that with the constant caveat, it's playoff baseball, especially these short wild card series anything could happen but I think San Diego gets through and moves on to Los Angeles and Dodgers fans will have more talk on your team once we actually know how this series plays out we're not ignoring the

Dodgers we're just putting them on the back burner until they're actually in action this weekend. Hockey is back on ice and the Athletic Hockey Show has the game covered four days a week all season long. Hear from the Athletics, NHL writers and insiders Monday, Wednesday and Thursday. Plus keep up with the game's future stars on the Friday Prospect series. Whether we're diving deep on one topic, discussing the latest news or breaking down last night's OT winner, you can't miss a single episode. Listen to the Athletic Hockey Show wherever you get your podcasts. Let's shift our focus over to the Mets-Brewers matchup.

The Mets buy the numbers this year. A 109 WRC plus better lineup than people realize. A lot of that comes back to Brandon Nimmo being an underrated player, Mark Vientos having a breakout season, Lindor putting together one of his best all-around seasons in recent years as well, Pete Alonso still playing well, even though it's not your 45-50 homer season

from Pete Alonso. They have depth, they have power. I think it's interesting that one thing that's similar about the Mets and Brewers is their rotations have been getting by with low K minus BB percentages, right? We talk about the metrics that we really like on this show. That's kind of a good catch all one.

Both teams have good bullpens. Both teams have done it with pitching. That's been a little more piecemeal. I could see this being a little bit of a Spider-Man meme series. I mean, David Stearns, the new president of baseball operations for the Mets, facing his former club

and he helped lay the groundwork for what's in place in Milwaukee, so it kind of makes sense they'd be similar right now until the Mets get up into their eventual expected Death Star status with the funds of owner Steve Cohen. But I think people are sleeping on the Mets just a little bit, right? There were moments during the double header

where I felt like the LOL Mets vibes were creeping in in game one, where if they were to get shut out by Schwellenbach, all that pressure was gonna be on them to win game two. They kind of shook that off multiple times this year and they shook it off in the biggest possible moment in game one of that double header. So yeah, they have the same fatigue Atlanta does

to some degree, but a little less because they at least get to use Luis Severino in game one against Milwaukee. They didn't have to go to that well and use him in game two. And I think that changes a lot about how they can match up pitching wise with the Brewers in the short series. Yeah, the starting rotations are both, you know, bottom half of the playoffs. And so in that way, they're similar. One way I think the Brewers are superior to the Mets is the bullpen.

I had the Brewers bullpen top four bullpen arms as top four in the playoffs in there with the Padres, Yankees, and Braves by projections and the Phillies right there too. So those are the best ones. The Mets are down near the bottom actually. The Royals are way down at the bottom. And then it's like the Mets and the Orioles are somewhat similar. You know, I don't even know if that captures it completely because the projections keep saying that Edwin Diaz and Devin Williams are equals.

But that is not the way that Edwin Diaz has been pitching this year. And even recently, you know, like we just saw him almost blow their their biggest game of the year. So and in terms of, you know, how much is being used coming off two multiple winning games, like I don't even know, would he be available, you know, for this first game? Maybe, but not for like multiple outs, I don't think so. That's a concern. I think also another thing that can happen when you're tired is the command can go. It's not like Edwin Diaz's command is great to begin with. And then once you get behind Edwin Diaz, it becomes more obvious that Trevor Megill is

a better setup guy than anybody that the Mets have. So I think that the Brewers own the bullpen advantage. I'm going to say starting pitching is almost even. I might give the Brewers a slight ahead, a little bit of an advantage there for Freddie Peralta. I think Freddie Peralta is the best starter in the series. So I'm gonna give him that. I think the key difference is,

we talked a lot all season about Luis Severino. I think I mentioned he was my most rostered player in fantasy baseball this year. Had a lot of Luis Severino. He pitched well, but he didn't bring the strikeout rate back to the mid upper 20 percent range that I thought maybe he would. I thought there was a chance if the stuff came back. That was the type of result we'd get from Severino. So that's where I think Peralta gets that big separation.

I think on paper, Luis Severino looks a lot like Aaron Savalli or Tobias Myers or some of the others. They're very similar. Once you move past Peralta, the pitchers these teams rely on are almost one big cluster where it'd be a coin flip matching up a lot of different combinations of them. So I do think game one in particular

is really important for the Brewers because if they can leverage their starting pitching edge and get that first game, that's huge since the pitching becomes so much more even beyond game one. The Stuff Plus model thinks that Severino is maybe Peralta's equal. I mean, even when you look most recently, since, you know, mid August, let

me see what his numbers are, because I can see that his fastball has gotten better. 114 stuff plus with a 106 four seam fastball for Luis Averino and a 159 slider. So he's been a lot better, you know, at least by the model over his last 10 starts. And, you know, I could see him pitching to a big game. Another thing that Severino embodies that the Mets have, I think the Mets and Brewers both have really embraced is the multiple fastball model. You know, right now, Sevarino is throwing three fastballs fairly regularly, and the incorporation of the sinker has been a big deal for him. And that's something that the Mets have in spades. They have six pitchers with three fastballs. And that could be meaningful also because on the other side of the ball the Brewers

Offense has been good if you look at full season numbers But in the second half they were average and in the last 30 days they have an 82 WRC plus I don't want to like, you know get into the who's hot or not game necessarily but You know, there are times when this offense looks like William Contreras and Jackson Churio and pray for rain. And you know, if a guy with multiple fastball comes in and you know, kind of shuts down most of that lineup

and dances around Churio, Adamas and Contreras, then these could be some low scoring games. Yeah, could be some pictures battles. Despite the fact that we don't think the pictures are the highest quality. Well, yeah. I'm actually, and I hate to do this, it's not personal, I'm not trying to needle you, and I'm not trying to do this for content. I've been thinking about this as like, there's always an upset.

I mean, there's almost always an upset you were making the joke that if you were if you went chalk in Football this year like you'd be in you'd be in some trouble Well, yes, survivor pools are a mess. Most of them are just broken and almost over already and it's week five Yeah, so that describes most playoffs is like there's gonna be upsets There's almost no no like I can't remember the last playoff that was really chalky was the really weird one was 2020 You know, so that that's a that's a weird. I don't exactly know why maybe it's fans I don't know what it is, but that was super chalky this one There's gonna be an upset and I haven't picked one yet and so I'm itching to pick an upset and I'm gonna pick the Mets and the

Reasoning is faulty and terrible and I can't come up with anything more than vibes the OMG, you know grimace vibes I Think I pick the Mets offense Which is not that's actually's actually not like a small thing. Like we've talked about how important the lineup is in the postseason. So I think I picked the Mets offense. And then, I don't know.

But I don't know what the third thing is. Vibes again. Vibes twice, you picked Vibes twice. Interesting, interesting choice. It's good for the Mets that they will have Sean Manaya going in game two. He was pitching really well. His last regular season start just happened in Milwaukee. It was the first time he'd been hit in a while. It was not a good pitch. Really bad outing. People think sometimes, oh, Sid and the same team twice. There's no proven effect on that where

there's a side that gets an advantage. It's just one of those things. Maybe you feel better if your team just hit the guy, but he might come back with some wrinkles. One thing that Manaya was doing was, is he gonna be on regular rest or on more regular rest? He'll be on regular rest because game two will be Wednesday. He'll pitch Friday.

So yeah, completely regular rest. He was kind of adjusting his shoulder more than usual. That was a little bit weird for me. There has been some worry that a changing of an arm slot in the middle of the season is a little bit risky for your health. As to your point about going back to back on a team, both teams get to go back and analyze what happened.

And the pitcher in particular can just completely change the book and just do things completely differently the second time. Or he could just, things can bounce differently and he can, you know, I remember some calls being a little bit weird in that, in that one. And so things can just sort of sequence a little bit differently. Like he gives up hits in every inning, but never multiple hits in one inning. You know what I mean?

Like people think about luck and they think, I think very often about the, about the ball bouncing, you know, past a glove or hitting dirt or doing something weird you know but luck is often also like when did that strikeout happen that big strikeout happened did you get the big strikeout with the three guys on bass or did you get the single you know I mean like when in what point of the lineup did these things happen you know so sequencing is a big part of luck so I think that shaman I with the new arm slot has had like a 3-5 ERA with strikeout rate is up his fastball stuff plus is up you know everything

has been better in this new arm slot and I would take Shamanaya possibly you know Luis Severino and Shamanaya I think probably slot behind Freddie Peralta from ranking all the the the pitchers in this starting pitchers in this right and then maybe I think Montaz and Savali after that so I Don't know, you know, what do you think? I think what's tricky about a few of the teams in the playoffs and the Brewers are one of them is the Brewers have two potential weapons out of the bullpen in Aaron Ashby and DL Hall that they can deploy

pen in Aaron Ashby and DL Hall that they can deploy for multiple innings behind any of their starters whenever it makes sense. And they're both lefties. And they'd be coming in off of a righty so you could flip the matchups in your favor a little bit too. And you just don't know it's based on the situation. It's based on how good the stuff of the starter is right. If Franky is dealing then maybe he goes to the lineup twice and gives you five. If he's not, maybe he gets through once.

And then you're going right to DL Hall to get through the lineup one time. And that might be the first six innings. And then you get to the late relievers that we talked about that are really good. So I think they have some flexibility that a few of the other teams maybe don't have in the form of established multi-inning options. Like the Cleveland bullpen, I wonder who are their longer bridge options, right? That's the question I have about that. They have a phenomenal bullpen.

Maybe it's just five short relievers and that's the plan. But I think the Brewers can do a little more with length with a few of their guys that could make them a bit of a problem to match up with for opposing lineups. Yeah, and Ashby in shorter outings has, you know, less time to, he's slimmed his arsenal a little bit and less time to, you know, get in trouble with walks. So, you know, his command isn't amazing, but he's improved it a little bit this year off of last year, and he's got pretty wicked stuff.

The other thing I wanted to point out about the Brewers, we talked about this a bit before, they have a great defensive club. What they do exceptionally well on that side. Blake Perkins, probably one of the better defensive center fielders in the league this year that just doesn't get a lot of credit for it because he's, with an offensive perspective,

like more of a fourth outfielder but the glove absolutely plays right so they're tied for second and outs above average tied for third and defensive run saved I think that's one of those things that does make some of their starting pitching depth questions play up a little bit they turn more balls in play and outs that goes a long way and that's not necessarily a strength on the other side of the ball, although the Mets by ounce above average end up 11th by UZR, they're 24th by DRS, they're 14th. It's more about unevenness position to position. They have good defenders in some good spots, but they also have Mark Vientos out at third base who, you know,

contributed a little bit to the wildness and wackiness of that first game like a double header yesterday because he's just not a really good defender. I think he's probably the replacement for Pete Alonso at first if they move on. So there are spots on that Mets team that a ball could find somebody and do some damage. I'm gonna go all chalk in round one. I think all four home teams advance. I think that's the surprise, right? The surprise, there will be no surprise.

There will be no upset until we get to the later rounds. That's like me picking the Orioles and being like, picking the Orioles will be a surprise because everyone's gonna pick against them. Yeah, that's where I'm at. I wanna see how much the Brewers can put pressure on opposing batteries in the postseason too. We talked about how they've got the only team in this field that stole more than 200 bases in the regular season. That could be a strength they can exploit a little bit too, especially in certain matchups.

If you're the Phillies, same question I asked you earlier, you're looking at these possible opponents in the NLDS round, who would you rather see in round two if you're the Phillies? I think I'd rather see the Mets just because I've seen them 13 times. Do you know what I mean? I don't even know what the record is in those games. I'm just saying like, you'll know all their stuff. You know, like you'll know all their stuff. You know, like you'll know all their BS. There's no like, oh, but we got, you know, like, yeah, we placed him. Yeah, we faced him.

We saw that guy. And one thing that we do know in a less sort of facetious manner is that the more often you see a pitch shape, the better you get at it. So just familiarity with all of the different pitch shapes that they're going to throw at you is a good thing. I mean, you're just gonna see the, you have seen those, like, I don't think the Phillies have seen DL Hall

or Aaron Ashby, just to bring it back to the point you made. And the Mets have seen both those guys, just recently. The Brewers and Mets actually opened the season facing each other. DL Hall started against Luis Severino. I think that was game two I was amped for that start those things have changed a million times The things that have changed since that first matchup off the charts one thing I noticed though

Look at the Mets and Phillies during the regular season They played 13 times the Phillies won seven out of those 13 had a plus 10 run differential there were 128 runs scored in those 13 games so that's almost almost 10 runs a game 9.8 runs per game combined in those matchups the Brewers and Phillies saw each other for two three game series so only six matchups how many runs were scored in those games 26 total the Phillies went forward to but it was very tight low scoring games and the Phillies are such an interesting team because they can really kind of win either way Their pitching is good enough to win in duels. Their lineup is good enough to outslug you. I Look at the Phillies. They're my pick to actually win the World Series this year

So I don't think they care who they see but I do think you're right. I think the familiarity is a little more comfortable. I think when you've seen those pictures several times, you can go in there with a much better game plan than, hey, we've only seen DL Hall on the tablet. We've only seen Aaron Ashby on the tablet. I think that does create a little more difficulty. So maybe the familiarity would be the preferred route if they could call their own shot and pick who they see in the DS. You know, it's difficult. You picked all choc. I picked three out of four choc. And I think part of this also is like there's the science of bracket making where you're like, who could really, you know, go on a run, not only just get upset in the first round, but then go beyond that and really bust my bracket.

You know, like who could really mess it up? And I honestly just don't see it. I don't see it. I think the closest could be, because we're talking about the underdogs or the Tigers. Who are the underdogs here? The Tigers, Royals, Braves and Mets. The Braves and Mets are super taxed.

I mean, it'd have to be just a legendary run for them to get all the way through. Which is why I'm just picking the Mets based on fives, because what if they just vibe their way through the whole playoffs? The Tigers and Royals, I just don't think the Royals have the bats to get all the way to the World Series. So the Tigers, I think, are the one that could make me feel the wrongest. They just patched together everything behind Scoobble. They even had, AJ Hinch said, "'Okay, the plan is Scoobble and then everybody.'" (*both laugh*)

Scoobble and then we're just waving our arms and running at you and screaming our heads off and you're not gonna know what's happening because no one wants to do that in October, but it's going to work because we're confident it will work. I wouldn't say that they have an amazing depth, but they have enough guys where you could go Mize, Holt, you know what I mean? You could really kind of try to yo-yo guys around with the arms they have, a fair amount of lefties, fair amount of righties, like, you know, different strengths and they could mix and match their way all the way. So that's my pick in the first round of the team to most likely make me feel stupid is the Tigers. And yet my one upset is the Mets. Just I think they weren't as taxed by those two games. You know, they were able to sit a lot of guys in the second game.

Not having Diaz for game one potentially is not as bad as the situation the Braves are in. I think it's a little more of an all-hands situation for the Mets where if they're in a situation where they can use Diaz for three outs, they'll just do it. I think he's gonna want the ball. He wanted the ball after pitching in the eighth and getting knocked around. he wanted to go back out

Yeah Got up to 40 pitches So I mean if it's a really tight one run game and the last three outs are all they need to get a game One win on the road. I think there's a chance we'd see Edwin Diaz and then he's almost 100% out for game two. Yeah, but you'd rather get the one in the bag then then leave it to chance I think if if you're in their situation right now and as tired as they are. Alright, so the full scale predictions I've got the Phillies coming out of the NL series by series. We kind of broken it down already all chalk for me in round one I think it gets interesting in round two. I do think the Padres knock off the Dodgers

So I think we have a Phillies Padres NLCS matchup this year. I think we're gonna get Astros Yankees again I think Phillies Padres would be a low scoring situation. You think that would that would fall to the low scoring side I think we'd get a mixed bag I think we'd get you know to like one blowout to do yeah like like two duels get you know to like one blowout to two yeah like like two duels one blowout each way and then like two or three like really good back and forth I think that would be a really good NLCS I would be really excited for that I think that would be really evenly matched really nice NLCS I would definitely sign on for

that I think Yankees Astros maybe we'll see a little bit of a changing of the guard at that point like we've early in the year we thought maybe this is the beginning of the end For the Astros dynasty and look any run like the one they've had is just historically great no matter when it ends Yeah, we both put the Yankees in the in the World Series. I've noticed. Oh, we're at agreement on that side of the bracket I think so I mean I just don't I don't I'm I'm not as afraid of the Astros as possible.

If the Tigers do make a little bit of a run, like, and make it all the way to the ALCS, I just feel like, you know, Tigers, Yankees, I'm taking the Yankees. So if I just sort of do the one by one for everybody, I'm just, I'm gonna take the Yankees here. So I think Yankees Padres for me, Yankees Phillies for you.

Yeah, I got the Phillies in seven over the Yankees in the World Series. Who's winning it for you? I'm just gonna do Padres, man. I just. It'd be fun. I'm on board for that. It's so amazing because it's like,

I've written about this. I'm not a fan of AJ Pridler's management style. And I think that they've had some weaknesses there in terms of player development. And I think in terms of roster construction, they're about to get into a lot of trouble. I mean, they have three guys that are 30 million, they have $100 million every year tied up in three guys.

And one of them is Xander Bogarts, who's maybe gonna be below average from here on out. It's possible. I love that you picked the Padres to win the World Series and still got more Zander Slander in. Like, what did Zander Bogarts do to you? Nothing, I think he's a really good player. I just think it's one of the worst contracts in baseball.

The contracts though, the Padres contract situation is it is one of those things where like, this is gonna end really badly, but the middle part's gonna be awesome. Like that's. And that's where they are right now. And they're in the middle part, so just enjoy the middle part.

Don't worry about the future. Yeah, Prelor's strengths, the fact that he identifies talent, you know, on par with anybody, is on display with Jackson Merrill in center field. You know, it's pretty remarkable that after all the guys he traded away, he could have C.J. Abrams and Short and, you know,

all these guys. I mean, he could have had Trey Turner from way back when, you know. He has traded away a lot of talent, but this one time where he really needed a center fielder, that was good. Trick. Rabbit out of the hat. Who's your World Series MVP before we go? But the Padres winning it all.

Dude, redemption story. Manny Machado, baby. Oh, okay. All the way back. He didn't look right at the beginning of the season, so to see Manny kind of get back to being himself over the course of the year and then to cap it off that way would be a pretty good story. I'm going to get kind of similar. I think Bryce Harper gets it done. I mean, he's just, he's ridiculous in October and there've just been a few points this year. We've wondered, is his back okay? Is Bryce Harper still Bryce Harper? I think he's going to show us. Yeah, he is still Bryce Harper. Do you want to know the dumbest stat? And this is so dumb, but you know, if you know that there is a stat called clutch on fan graphs and it looks at how a player does relative to his own baseline in clutch late and close situations, here are the least clutch players of the season.

Colton Kouser, Randy Orosa-Raina? That's weird. Aaron Judge, Orlando Orcia, Ellie De La Cruz, Bryce Harper. Yeah, you know, I think the good thing about October is that you can look at that stat and go, ha, that stat's gonna look real dumb. Well, you could cherish his tenths.

You're not Alvarez's ninth. Come on, Jorge Saler's eighth. This guy is like a World Series MVP I mean that's the problem with clutch as we've seen it is the ways that we've had to measure it are just not sticky in any way it's such an extremely limited split right I mean that's part of it yeah how many how many plate appearances are in each split yeah so it's not gonna be predictive, it's gonna be extremely noisy, but yeah, there's your dumb stat of the day. We should have a sound drop of that.

And here's our dumb stat of the day. Brought to you by people who love stats. Here's a stupid stat. Yeah, send those in our Discord. Join our Discord with the link in the show description. If you see or hear or find a dumb stat watching the games, listening to the games, send them our way. We're not doing it to embarrass the people.

We used to get a lot more like, oh, he's batting 300 on Tuesday day games. And you're like, hmm. Yeah, I like it when it's like, the Brewers are 52 and one when they score seven or more runs. And you're like, really? Only 52 and 1? How does that line up against the rest of the league? Opponents have an 850 ERA in those games. Yeah, that makes sense. Not really a stat. Thanks for

the poll. Four great games on the slate for today. A quick thanks to our producer, Brian Smith, for putting this episode together. Get a subscription to the Athletic, get all the great playoff coverage we have for one low price. $2 a month gets you in the door at theathletic.com. Slash rates and barrels. Find Eno on Twitter at EnoSaris. Find me at Derek VanRyper. Find the pod at rates and barrels.

That's going to do it for this episode of Rates and Barrels. Enjoy day one of the wild card series. We're back with you on Wednesday. Thanks for listening. I like you. I like you a lot.