Rates & Barrels - Timing the Rebuild, Evaluating the Fringe Fantasy Contributors & James Wood's Promotion

Episode Date: July 1, 2024

Eno and DVR discuss how to navigate the timing of playing for the future in long-term leagues, the difficulty in making decision in shallow leagues at the bottom of the roster, the promotion of James Wood by the Nationals, Triston McKenzie's demotion to Columbus, and where the money went over the weekend in weekly FAAB leagues.  Rundown 0:56 Timing a Rebuild (How to Avoid Being Like the Angels) 10:37 Assessing the Fringe Player in Shallow Leagues 21:52 James Wood Promoted by Nats, Debuting Monday 27:54 Triston McKenzie Optioned to Triple-A 32:23 Injury Updates: Jordan Romano, Josh Jung & Mike Trout 39:57 Where the Money Went 51:25 Heston Kjerstad Comps Based on Hard-Hit Rate & Max Exit Velocity 59:53 Weekend Drops: Davis Schneider & Dylan Moore Follow Eno on Twitter: @enosarris Follow DVR on Twitter: @DerekVanRiper Join our Discord: https://discord.gg/FyBa9f3wFe Join us at 1p ET/10a PT on Wednesday, July 3rd for our next livestream! https://www.youtube.com/c/ratesbarrels Subscribe to The Athletic: theathletic.com/ratesandbarrels Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

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Benefits vary by card, other conditions apply. This episode is brought to you by PC Optimum. If you like a curated playlist, why not try a curated grocery list? With swap and save, the new feature in the PC Optimum app, you'll get PC Optimum's best price for your grocery items. Simply add products to your shopping list in the app, and it'll show you similar items at a lower cost.

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The whole league now I believe has passed has passed the eighty one game threshold. So we are officially into the second half, no matter which team you follow or root for or whether you play fantasy baseball or there. And there's still a long way to go. Like you look at the standings, real or fantasy and you think, oh, OK, these teams are kind of out of it. These teams are the ones that are likely to win. Yeah, that might be somewhat true, but no, a lot can still change in the next 80 or so games.

You know, how's it going for you on this Monday? All right, I had a I had a moment last late last week where I've been you know I had this auto no team that I was been trying to make it work. I even bought early in the season you know took on a rental Vlad, Vlad Guerriero Jr. and like, you know, tried to improve the team. And the weirdest thing was that I was like, you know, some of these guys are playing a little bit better and I'm still ninth. Like, like I peek, I'm peeking at eighth. I'm like, it's like, maybe this team's no good, you know? And then I tried to look at it from new eyes, just be like, OK.

Pretend you haven't seen this team every day, you know, for the last three months. Like, is this team good? And I was like, no. And so I did this crazy fire sale where on one day I made trades with second, third and fourth place and just traded away all my rentals. Ended up trading away as keepers also, Cattell-Martay and Luis Arias, which I just thought it was about the right time.

But now I have a whole bunch of new players to look at. And it's funny, the first day that I had my new players, the lineup hit three thirty with like three homers. And I was like, maybe I'm still in it for this year. See, that's the dangerous game. We talked about it a little bit last week in the segment. Sort of got bumped. We'll do it right now, actually.

How do you avoid becoming the angels in your league? The team that is just like trying to play for now and not doing enough for the future? And it's a terrible spot to be in a keeper or a dynasty situation because you end up peaking outside the money, usually outside the top three. We're talking about a 12 team league or maybe a little further down if it's a bigger league that pays out more spots. But you're not bad enough. At least you don't seem bad enough at any given time to say, I'm tearing it down. I'm trying to get some prospects. So you just keep playing the middle year after year after year.

Obviously that's not what happened to you, right? You were more competitive in previous years, but taking that fresh eyed approach. What did you see that was different? What actually kind of tipped you over the edge? Were you counting quality keepers? Like how did you decide that your team wasn't quite good enough as it was built? And because I think you were right. If you go in and start making trades, you don't just make one or two. You make like four or five and really just turn it over.

Yeah, I think there was it was a twofold. There was two things going on. One was, you know, and this is a little bit of my weakness, I think there's is twofold there was two things going on one was you know and this is a little bit of my weakness I guess maybe an auto new where I have not been super successful yet. And what happened was I look through my roster and just realize how old my roster was you know. I had Paul Goldschmidt and Nolan Arnado on the same team. And I'd made a bunch of sort of shots in the dark in the outfield that if they had gone the other way, maybe my team would have been all right. But you know, I had Jack Swinski, Jesus Sanchez, right. But you know, I had Jack Swinski, Jesus Sanchez, Nelson Velasquez, Byron Buxton. And then Randy Oroszarena, that's

like I'm describing my outfield, you know, and then recently bought a cheap Larnac and Kanzone. But like that's, I'm not doing anything there. That's that's a bad outfield, right? For a 12 teamer. That's just a bad outfield. That's and that a bad outfield, right? For a 12 team or that's just a bad outfield. That's and that's the key, right? It's a 12 team lead, but it's deep rosters. And I think what happens is you need to get guys that hit at levels above that. Like the guys you were going after, those are guys we liked a lot for 15 team leagues.

We were less sure of them in 12s. And especially in the keeper component too, like Nelson Velasquez, even if he had hit this year, long-term was probably going to be a fast peak sort of player. And even that is really hard to rely on year over year in a long-term format because unless he stays cheap and I don't know, they don't stay as cheap as they do in some leagues where they're just locked in. And I bought them for eight bucks. So it's like even if he had been as good as he could have been, he was not really an asset going forward because then he's 10 bucks next year.

You know, it's like, you know, is that really a $10 player in auto do like, this is, it does turn into like one of the things it's, this is more site specific. If you're in a league where you have dollars attached to players and then you go out into the draft, what I have found is that the players you buy in the draft a lot of times are overpriced. Now you'll get some $1 players and some $2 players and those are great, but the players that go up

to like eight, 10, 12, I find them overpriced a lot. I had to go to $12 for Jack Sawinski because there were no outfielders12 for Jack Sawinski because there were no outfielders left after Jack Sawinski. You know what I mean? And I just didn't see a way to field an opening day roster. You know what I mean? So I was like, okay, it's Jack Sawinski and Byron Buxton for $31 combined, which seems crazy, but other people bid me to those numbers. And it was, I had money at the draft. I had to spend it and I needed outfielders. You know, I, I paid, I, I, I put myself too hard into a corner, you know?

So that was part of it. The, another part of it was a bias a little bit towards established players. I trade away a lot of prospects. So I, my team had gotten, it's gotten old really quickly. And, you know, last thing is, you know, sometimes, I think maybe pushing my values because I think the draft is not that great. So I say a $30 Paul Goldschmidt, yeah, I'm gonna keep him.

Whereas if I had done an auction calculator look or looked at similar prices, I would have realized that was probably too expensive for Paul Goldschmidt. You know, $25 Nolan Arnado like I got I held those guys too long. And so this time I just wanted to be a little bit more So this time I just wanted to be a little bit more cutthroat. And so even though Cattel Marte is fine now and the price was fine, I didn't think I needed to hold on to him so hard to that I end up not getting good keepers. So I don't know, the trades were pretty profligate and quick. What did I do? I did Verlander for 15, Gossman for 15, Trey Turner for 50, and Carlos Estevez for 10. So I would say maybe not a keeper there at all,

depending on how Estevez's end of season goes. Right. Yeah. And I got back story for four, who might not be a keeper. I'm just hoping we get some good health news at some point. You know, David Bednar for 10, Joey Ortiz for one and Spencer Jones for two. Right. And Ortiz turns into a three dollar player at a minimum, right? And get a little bit more piled on in the arbitration process. But you're probably looking at five bucks at most. And and I will be at the bottom of the league, so I won't get the most.

I won't get a lot of arbitration dollars. So, yeah, so I think Joe Ortiz is a starting infielder and and I have some ability to move him around. I think Bednar is a is a is a closer I'll keep. And then Spencer Jones, I'll probably keep him as a prospect. I expect him to kind of stay in the minor league. So that'll be a three dollar guy. I traded Castellanos 25, Buxton 19, Severino five, Cattelmarte 11.

So I would say that's Castellanos is a cut. Buxton is probably a cut. Severino at five is OK, but Severino at seven is okay, but it's not something I need to hold on to. Kittel Martell at eleven is the keeper. But coming back I got Brandon Rodgers two, Michael Bush three, Zach Vien one, and Bobby Miller seven. So maybe that was the worst deal I made. But I think it's I like Michael Bush. I think he's a starter. Brendan Rodgers is underrated, I think.

I still like Bobby Miller. And the last one was Vladimir Greger Jr. $50, Luis Reyes $10, so it's one keeper. For Christian Walker, $5, Nolan Gorman, $4, and David Fry, $1. Interesting combination there, because there's a few different ways it could hit for you. One of the things that's interesting about Christian Walker in a keeper league, I think he's at the age where people expect him to sort of decline at any time without a lot

of warning. I don't think we're seeing any of the massive signs of that in the underlying numbers. In fact, I think there's a lot more red in the things we care about than there was even a year ago for him and Christian Walker usually Popped pretty good into that cast just get myself another Paul Goldschmidt, but at least he's four dollars five dollars. Yeah, right He's cheaper. So it's it's worth it's probably worth it All right so I think he's the kind of player that

Even if you're if you're close to competing again, you should actually trade for him It's kind of counterintuitive. And in auto news specifically, I don't think anyone's dropping extra dollars on Christian Walker. When they see your roster and have that arbitration money to drop on you, they're going to drop it on younger players every single time. So I think that's what is likely to kind of hold and make him an okay keeper value as well. But the skills look really solid for a player like that. One of the questions we've been asked, and I know it came up recently in Discord, it's come up in the past, it's a redraft question that also overlaps

in the Keeper League, so I think it fits perfectly with what we're talking about right now. You mentioned Joey Ortiz as a Keeper. How do you know, how should we assess these players? Most of our game is get the top end guys that stay on your roster all year. We even talked about building teams like this. These are the spots that you know you really don't have to mess with the guys

you draft in the first six, seven, eight, hopefully first 10 rounds. I've never really taken these players out unless they're hurt. I'm not going to mix and match them. They are my fixtures. But that next third is a really tricky spot because you're hoping to find guys that will jump up and be established regulars. Some won't be, some will fall off the roster completely. And then the bottom third's more lottery tickets.

How do we know when we've moved a player up into that next threshold? Because if you're in a 10-team league or a 12-team league, and you've talked about your son playing in a 16-team league, figuring out like where that replacement line is and when to be patient and when to be aggressive with a player that hasn't done it before, but might be doing it for the first time like Joey Ortiz. I think that's a really hard decision to make,

like choosing Zach Neto or Joey Ortiz over the 15, $20 shortstop that is underperforming. That's actually a tough decision. Yeah. And it's also just tough to value those players in terms of what's their future. Is Joey Ortiz just going to be my backup infielder next year? Right. Or is he a starter? And I've got him right next to Jeremy Pena right now, which I think he's also in that crew where you're like, well, when he was going good, he looked like he was a 10 teamer.

Now that he's kind of settled in, he looks good, he looked like he was a 10 teamer. Now that he's kind of settled in, he looks a lot more boring. It looks like a 15 teamer. And you're like, he just went from one to the other in like three weeks. So yeah, I mean, my basic strategy with these, as you can see with Fry and gorman i've got steer on my team or tease um is i'm i'm hoping and bush is i'm hoping i have a lot of eligibility um and basically cover all of my team going into the draft so that i don't have a quote unquote need you know and then what I'm hoping to do is just buy those upper tier players and then move these other

cheaper guys around to accommodate them basically but one thing that I've noticed is that outfield is is going to be an issue for me so I'm better better hit the hit the decks and see if I can make one more trade for for a keeper outfielder. The other part of that question is almost like a time based question, because you mentioned Jeremy Pena and I thought it was all happening. And the reason I thought it was all happening for Jeremy Pena is because we had seen bits and pieces in the past.

Right. When he debuted, we saw a 9.6% barrel rate last season. It seemed like he was a little dinged up again, and that's been part of the story really each of his first two full seasons. Beginning of this year brings the K rate down, still got the K rate down too. I thought it was skills consolidation, and he's running a little bit more this year, right? He's on his way to like 20 stolen bases instead of the Low double digits. So I just keep getting tricked I think by Pena in these

stretches where it looks like he's either taking a step forward or Combining the best parts of his profile from these last two seasons. I don't know. He's 26 Like, you know next year he could do it. Like, I mean, all that takes for him to, uh, be a 10 team player, I think is, cut that ground ball rate to, you know, 42% next year and push the barrel rate back up to eight or 9% like he had his rookie year, he does that with the new K rate, now you've got a guy who's gonna hit 290 with 25 homers and 15 steals.

That's a 10-teamer. I think it's also like a lineup position question too. There was a stretch from probably the later part of April, especially early May, where he was pretty well entrenched in the heart of the order, hit between third and fifth, second and fifth, almost every one of his starts down until about mid-June. And now he's kind of drifting a little further back down in the order again.

And that might be the toggle. That might be the difference between the 10 and the 12 team player, at least in normal size benched leagues where the waiver wire usually has an option. Like an easy way to spot it is just be like, because batting order is usually something that shows up on Yahoo or or other news. Like you can actually pretty much track it from your lineup sitting spot where you're like, oh God, he's hitting like I do. I have noticed that in my in my in my shallowest leagues. I want everybody's hitting in the top four. Yeah. You know, it's actually a kind of an interesting rubric.

Yeah, some teams are good enough where they're fives and six and sevens. You're like, you're OK with them. But like it is a pretty good, interesting rubric. I also think this relates to what we talk about a lot about, like the sort of oscillation around a true talent like these. These players are all there's always some sort of level of true talent that we're trying to assess, and then they're up and move around around it.

So I think that Jeremy Pena's situation is kind of like this, where you're like, his 80th percentile outcome makes him 10 team worthy. Right? But his 50th percentile outcome is more like 15 team. So you can kind of, I think you can kind of do a little bit with With a kind of just a blink assessment where you just kind of look at him you go Jeremy Payne I like really like what's the likelihood he goes 2020 this year not very high

So I doubt he's actually a 10 teamer You know I can all also tell you this that if you go out in the trade market the trade market will tell you some I bet I tried to trade Jeremy Payne on my 12 teamer for a really long time I can also tell you this, that if you go out in the trade market, the trade market will tell you some. I bet I tried to trade Jeremy Pena and my 12 teamer for a really long time. And they told me it was a resounding no, we are not interested. Yeah. So it was determined by that group of players that he doesn't have that high of a ceiling. Which almost says that's all that matters.

Cause that's your league you're playing in, right? Like we can talk about generalities here, but then there's the league that you're actually playing in. Yeah, it's true. And if you look back again, we've talked about monthly splits and it's the shape of a season this season, the March and April numbers from Pena 327, 367, 451, it was a 135 WRC plus. It was his best month so far. It didn't just trick all of us.

The Astros thought this is happening. This is the guy we hoped he'd be. And they put him higher in the lineup. Right, and he was league average in May. And then he was as good as he was in March and April. He was about that bad in June. But the truth might be right there. The May numbers might be the truth.

275 304 385. 17% K rate. June, but the truth might be right there. The May numbers might be the truth to seventy five three or four three eighty five, 17 percent K, right? Not a bad player. But he has to run or hit homers if he's going to get out of that deeper league bucket in the long haul. And then how you decide when he's on your roster and when he's not, it's probably streaming. It's the Astros have seven games this week. If you're in a weekly league, is it a bunch of lefties that are on the schedule?

It's probably more things like that that are causing you to move them on and off the roster in more shallow formats. Yeah. I mean, like right now I've I'm left with, uh, Brendan Rogers, uh, so Chris Christian Walker and Ellie Dilla Cruz at first and short, right? They, I feel very comfortable will be valuable players in this format. And then at short, third and backup, I've got Brendan Rogers, Jeremy Pena, Joey Ortiz and Michael Bush. And maybe even David Fry, depending on what position

he plays the rest of the year and Nolan Gorman. That's the spaghetti. He plays the rest of the year and Nolan Gorman That's the spaghetti And to some extent I just like that they're all cheap to have multiple positions and that their upper-end Outcomes are worthy of this league But if I can go into free agency and buy someone at their position that I think is you know a better bet I will do that. So there's a little bit of my thought process is, you know, none of these guys. Is like, Oh, I'm going to be top third in my league at this position, but there are enough of them that I could get lucky with one of them and I can also

still go into free agency. I'll have more money in free agency than I've ever had. So this is a little bit of departure for me. I'll have more money in free agency than I've ever had. So this is a little bit of departure for me. And I think that the other thing is that you kind of want to just like, don't be yourself all the time. It's a weird way of putting it, but like, how do you become, how do you end up being the angels is that you think like angels all the way over and over again.

It's like every once in a while you should throw a thing in there where you're like, let's do something different. Let's just sell early or buy or buy or the, you know what I mean? Like just be a little different than you normally are. And so this one, this one was a quicker house cleaning than I normally do. And I have more money at the draft and I not usually excited about that, but. You know, maybe it'll, maybe it'll allow me to do some things. I just like that you concentrated the trades close together and that you went to

each of the teams all competing and found something they needed and made yourself better in the process. Right. It's better, better to spread that around and do the extra work as opposed to trying to lump everyone together in one trade and just run away and say, hey, rebuild done, all set. I was disappointed. I couldn't get like a top 10 prospect, but people really hold onto those players. I find that to be really difficult in auto new so far because people know that if you have an inexpensive player, top 10 prospect, it's someone you're going to have for a few years, well below price. If it hits and knowing you need that ceiling impact.

It's hard to find those players on the laddie. Araya's deal was I was throwing four people at Wyatt Langford, and he was like, I just can't give up. Why Langford? Yeah, I gave up a ton to get Wyatt Langford really early this season, and it looks terrible right now because Christian Yelich looks a little bit like two years ago, three years ago. Yellich. Langford just hit a cycle as a rookie dude.

It's coming back around. It's going to be fine. But that was like Chris Sale, Christian Yelich. Oh wow. And Ranger Suarez, Chief Ranger Suarez. Oh no. And I thought, well, Chris Sale has been hurt a ton. He's good.

I like Chris Sale. That's why I had him. Suarez before the season was just a credible guy. Suarez was just a guy that I probably even shouldn't have kept based on, you know, roster spots even. And then all of a sudden, look what I gave up. I got Wyatt Langford back with a couple of their prospects, but it was one of those trades that I thought

if Yellowch's back starts barking, if Sale gets hurt again, I'm not gonna be able to get anything like this. So it'll look good by next year. It looks really bad right now. Looks real bad. Like, like, it's been getting to his power more, which is something that we should have expected and I think is going to continue.

Hopefully it's win win, though. Shout out the baseball pods, Chris, for being on the other side of that trade. Some big news going into the weekend. I think this actually dropped while we were recording the live stream on Friday. But James Wood has been promoted by the Nats. He's debuting today on Monday. So it wasn't happening over the weekend. But nevertheless, we knew the move was on its way.

James Wood's really interesting. We've been wondering for weeks if he'd get a chance before August. And we're going to talk about the timing of this call up a lot on our Tuesday show with Britt. But we've seen around an injury 10 homers, 10 steals and 52 games, a triple A this year, a sub 20% strikeout rate, which is really great, even though we know the quality of pitching a triple A has been discussed in the show many times. It's not great.

James Wood is walking a ton as well, and he's got a 59.1% hard hit rate. He hit a ball 115, jeez. Yeah, if you're looking for flaws, of course the one thing to nitpick, probably the ground ball rate, 52.4% at triple A. It's the highest of any stop for him in the minors so far. Boy, it's not something that he'd had a problem with

before really. Right, so you kind of think that's going to go away over time. The bat X currently projecting a 253, 320, 404 line, 26% K rate, 8% walk rate and seven homers, six deals over 62 games. So since we're talking about possibly 80 games, maybe 10, 10 in the big leagues is possible if it clicks for him quickly. There were a lot of leagues I play in because he hasn't played in the big leagues is possible if it clicks for him quickly There were a lot of leagues I plan because he hasn't played in the big leagues yet He was not eligible to get picked up on Sunday night in Telt Wars where you can pick up minor leaguers if you want to It was a 25% bid just over 25% to Sarah Sanchez

I think I was the runner-up trying to get wood on the team that desperately needs something good to happen So where do you put the expectations given the skills that wood has shown, the growth he's shown this year and that he's done it against the group of pitchers at AAA that is among the worst collection of AAA pitchers we've probably seen in a long time. Yeah. One thing that I spot when I look in his line is that there he has a bit of a pattern where, you know, the first time he hit a ball, you know, the strikeout rate went up. And then when he went to high, he went down a little bit.

And then we went to double a went back up. And then when he went to triple, they went down. What I'm seeing is just like an adjustment to each level and it's healthy and it's good and it's part of his development. But at six foot seven and 21 years old, I kind of expect him to swing and miss a lot in his first time in the big leagues. It's a little bit part his size and the strike zone he has to cover a little bit partially his strikeout rates in the minors. James Woods, I just think James Wood is going to strike out.

And I'm not sure that he's going to hit the ground running. We've just seen Wyatt Langford is, you know, way more polished, older, you know, ready to go. And he had his own issues, you know, to begin the season. And so I kind of don't expect him to light the world on fire. But famous last words, I guess. I do have him in our draft and hold that we're in together. Oh, you have him in that league.

Yeah, I was happy to put him in today over M.J. Melendez. I'll do that happily. Yeah, it's funny in some of those leagues, you know, you're just playing someone who's getting any sort of playing time. A prospect gets up and you're like, Hey, I know this might not work, but what I have in there is definitely not working. So I'll take the chance on a quick adjustments. One thing that Trevor has pointed out a few times on the show is the height of the strike

zone being different at triple A, right? I believe Trevor has said the strike zone is lower at triple A. And we had Kyle Manzardo talking about that a little bit too. Yeah, so for a six, seven hitter like Wood, I wonder if that makes a more difficult adjustment if he's gonna see more elevated fastballs and maybe he's got the bat speed to catch up to them, but I wonder if that's how opposing pitchers

are gonna go after him right away upon arrival. And we're just also in a time in which rookies don't come up without a book and then people say, oh, who's this guy? And then like, you know, rookies come up with a book, you know, whoever's facing him on who's is it the Padres this week? No. Who's he facing on Monday? Mets. Mets. So the Mets already had scouts on him in the minors. They already have some idea of how to pitch him. He's going lefty lefty. He's got David Peterson taking the ball for the Mets.

I assume he's going to be in the lineup tonight. They didn't call him up on this Monday for a home game to not put him in the lineup. That'd be cruel. So we'll see what he does against a same-handed starter. Are they even giving away a shirt of his or something yeah that's so I think he's playing that would be so weird here's the James Wood shirt he's on the bench yeah okay I let him face a lefty yeah he's terrible Eddie Rosario DFA'd by the Nats by the way in the corresponding move. But I understand your trepidation. I think Langford and Jackson Churio and a lot of the rookies we've seen this year

are great cautionary tales. You know, now is the time to buy Langford and Churio. And and my point is maybe with Wood like two months from now, you this is the time to buy him. Of course, you may have to buy him now to even have him two months from now, this is the time to buy him. Of course, you may have to buy him now to even have him two months from now. So, you know, that's a bit of a question of game theory or whatever, but I'm just saying, you know, I'm happy that I have Churio and I've had him all year

and now I think he's about to go off. There's been a lot of good signs of Churio recently, but just that points to what it's like to be like 21 years old and in the big leagues. Yeah. And as long as they're letting him play regularly, semi-regularly, James Wood can figure it out. And maybe maybe it's 20, 25 that ends up being the massive breakout. Right. Or maybe it's some signs of that in September. But I'm really I'm really curious to see where it goes.

I'm glad he's up now. We'll talk again about the timing a bit on tomorrow's show with Brit. So other news from the weekend, Tristan McKenzie optioned a AAA, and maybe this one's actually pretty simple. I think the the concerns we've had about Tristan McKenzie for years have been mostly health related, but also velocity related. This is not a hard throwing guy. He lost the tick and well,

Tristan McKenzie couldn't afford to lose one. He lost basically one and a half miles per hour off his fastball compared to where he was in 2022, the last time he was really good as an effective starter in Cleveland. So in the 20 starts he's made sense, only four last year, 16 this year. It's been a little bit of everything. It's been major problems with walks.

The home run rates gone through the roof. He's at AAA trying to get it back. But if he doesn't get the Velo back, like, I don't really know what kind of future McKenzie could possibly have as a starter as he's currently built. Yeah, I'm doing a real quick thing here because his, uh, I think the story for me is that he, his fastball wasn't quite good enough. Um, if he, uh, if he didn't throw it as hard as he could and that, uh, he kind

of came up and knew it was like, okay, I'm going to throw as hard as I can. And that, then he lost the command. So Mackenzie was kind of came up and was like, OK, I'm going to throw as hard as I can. And that then he lost the command. So Mackenzie was kind of stuck. Am I going to throw 91 with command or 93, 94 without command? And he kind of went the way of the league and said, I got to throw harder. And now after injuries, he's kind of back to 91 with no command. So I did location plus, minimum 80 innings over the last two seasons combined and Alex Lang has the worst location plus with those.

Tristan McKenzie is second. Then it goes Alexis Diaz, Jake Diekmann, Roldis Chapman who you might think has the worst command on the planet. Jose Quas, Andre Pellante. I have not said a major league starter yet. Although I guess Pellante might count. Mark Leiter Jr. Michael Kopec lost his job due to bad command.

Jose Budo, not an established starter. Luis Medina, Luis Heal, Jaylen Beeks, Jose Soriano. You know what I'm saying? Like we don't have an established major leaguer who's starting every fifth day and is successful and has done it for a while on this list yet. And he's, he's had the two second worst location for us. So I don't know if it's, you know, I often think that bad command is, is health related. And with him, that wouldn't be a surprise.

So whatever he needs to get right, but if it's a little bit more of an entire sort of rethinking of his delivery and maybe some going to a biomechanics set up and doing all that, maybe Tristan McKenzie needs to kind of rework it from the ground up. There's also this lingering possibility that he needs, you know, like Tommy John surgery too, right? Right. He, that's right. He had the, he had the partial tear.

Yeah. That's what I would, I would think it's something like that. So I just wonder if he's kind of stuck in between right now where it's like, I can't air it out the way I want to, because I'm afraid of tearing up my elbow more and now being demoted, maybe that's something he'll reconsider again, but hopefully he finds a way back. I mean, the secondaries are good. If he comes back at some point and doesn't have more VELO,

he probably has to find a way to mix up the fastballs and have different shapes on those because he throws it a lot. He throws it 52% of the time and it's just not a good enough pitch. Come back with a cutter and a sinker maybe. Yeah. But, uh, you know, uh, it, if, if he goes on the IL and gets Tommy John after this, it'll be a bit of a sad story because he will have tried his best and

been a soldier for the team and then been put in the minor leagues and be on the minor league IL. that would be sad. Yeah. Yeah. I was thinking about that too. If they found out that he actually needs surgery soon, like maybe they'd reverse that move, making an IL stint from the major league roster or something like that. But. Anyway, the goodness of their own hearts. I mean, maybe, but if the timing is such that surgery is on the table in the second half of the season, we probably don't see Tristan McKenzie pitching again until 2026.

So that's the other other downside of this. So we'll see where it goes, but doesn't look like it's headed to a great place for McKenzie, at least at this point or for Jordan Romano. I've been worried about Romano for a little while. Had another setback trying to come back from the IELTS. This seems like inevitable surgery, doesn't it? It's just it's terrible at this point for Jordan Romano. Yeah, it sort of reminds me of like

the Kodai Senga situation where it's like, if you just keep having setbacks and you can't even do the things in the progression of your rehab, then, you know, death's just, I don't, I'm not a doctor and I'm not, I don't wanna speculate on somebody else's health, it's just, it just I'm not a doctor and I'm not I don't want to speculate on somebody else's health. It's just it just seems like it's going in that direction.

You know, it's like we don't we don't have sourcing on this other than what we hear. But when somebody can't, you know, even do the bullpen, that's going to get them back, you know, on the field, then you kind of got to assume that they're not going to be on the field very anytime soon. And what we have seen, Romano, this year, he hasn't been himself. The strikeout rates been way down. Hard hit rate 50 percent. I mean, everything in the zone is getting hit. Eighty nine point four percent zone contact rate that is way up compared to his norm.

So they just got to find a way to get him right. It just might be a lengthy absence for Jordan Romano before that happens as well. Also from the setback department, Josh Young, who I really like, if you're in that kind of rebuilding playing for the future situation, I thought Young was one of the one of the guys that's been in the big leagues, had some success and could still have another gear. I thought he made sense of some of the target this summer. He said a couple of pauses basically, trying to move through his hitting

progression, so he's going back to a specialist to have his wrist checked out again. I mean him, him and Tommy Edmond almost feel like, you know, the hitter version of what we were just saying with Kodai Senga and Jordan Romano, which is like, you know, when are we going to have something definitive? Yeah. I don't even know if Edmund is out on rehab yet. Yeah, the Edmund the Edmund updates have been. Let's go weird.

Listen, this update, he was able to field grounders again without any problems in his sprained ankle. Right. And it's his wrist that's the problem. Like what is happening to Tommy Edmund? Yeah. And Josh Young is the same way where I'm just like, shouldn't it be back now? Like, what is what to Tommy Edmond? Yeah, and Josh Young is the same way where I'm just like, shouldn't it be back now? Like what is, what's going on?

I do think that wrists are kind of an underrated technical. It's just, it has to move right for hitting. Like there's just like, I think it's also super hard to like hit with any pain there. Yeah. Well, I think there's also probably the concern that you would do more damage by playing through pain in your wrist, given the amount of strain

that you're putting on them when you're hitting. If you wanna like take a full swing, and you wanna have that full follow through, and there's any pain, then if you hesitate, then you're not gonna get the full bat speed. That's why I did see someone saying that like maybe recent upticks in bat speed are kind of a, you know, feeling healthier, almost like, you know, upticks in the exit below, just letting it fly.

They're letting it fly. Right. And if you got, uh, if you got a sore wing, you can't let it fly. It's true. Um, so I think, um, I'm dialing back the trading for Josh Young every place I can until we get some more progress. We see him actually back in games again for the Rangers. Hopefully it's just scar tissue, something minor. But we'll see what that visit with the specialist reveals. Some news on my trout nearly pain free hopes to return by the end of July, according to our friend Sam Blum. So, hey, we're on July 1st now.

Maybe we'll stretch this for 30 days. The last update from Sam Blum was that it's going worse than expected and it's taking him longer. Yeah. But after that update, we got another update. Didn't like how that one landed. No, I guess not. I hope he's back. I want Trout to come back. I want Trout to play. You know what's funny is that probably the prognosis in both of these was late July. Yeah.

It's probably... One was like, it's taken a little bit longer than possible, but I think late July. The other one is, no, I'm feeling great. Late July. If you have the option of choosing a sentence before providing the timetable, yeah, kind of shape how people think and approach your own recovery. Doesn't it seem though that the trout has healed worse than expected from most of these things? It seems that way.

Sam was sort of suggesting a little bit of that on our pod last week was just this idea that, you know, oh, he had this thing where it's supposed to be out for a month or two and then he's out the rest of the season. Right. But then at the same time, that back injury that popped up a few years ago, that sounded like the thing that was going to be the problem for the rest of his career. And I don't think that's been, it hasn't really been an issue since the second half. Since then, he went to a calf and then a ham eight. Yeah, it's other stuff and you also wonder you know yeah

he sort of made an illusion to it like doesn't want to be out there unless he's a hundred percent right which but also just think about how bad his teams have been and most of these junctures like it you know and if you could come back at 80% and maybe reduce his legacy he like put worse numbers up you know, and if you could come back at 80 percent and maybe reduce his legacy, like put worse numbers up, you know, and but if you would do it, maybe if they were like in it for the playoffs. But then maybe a lot of these times where he's like, OK, there's two weeks left in the season, I could play maybe. It's like, well, why?

Or I could do more damage to this thing that's not completely healed. And then it'll be a problem again next year. Yeah. I'd rather have a clean slate going into next season. It's tough. The organization makes it tough. And look, I think we don't know a lot about each team's medical staff and how good or bad they are. So I can't make any sort of assertion about whether the angels are average or great or terrible, but of assertion about whether the angels are average or great or terrible. But it's another factor in all of this, just in terms of the thing is they're advising him to do, or if he's got his own doctor providing their medical opinions, like it's a lot of moving parts.

Yeah, like the the Giants have like. Basically, a director keeping their players healthy. And I'm not saying I'm not saying that the Giants have great outcomes on this. I will point out that they've been older than most teams, you know. But just the fact that they have that position is is kind of interesting to me. It's just it's like a like if you follow the trainer all the way up to the front office, it's like somebody who's all the way up at the top of the front office. I wish I had the name in front of me, but it's, you know, it's like, you have somebody advocating for player health in the room when they're discussing trades

and discussing roster construction. Not every team has that. We're like somebody who cares about the players in that way is up there. Like the Cubs hiring my son to be like the director of fatigue. Even if they're we haven't seen the outcomes shift for them yet. The fact that they did that puts them ahead of other teams. Yeah, it's a concerted effort to be better in an area where a lot of teams haven't put enough effort in. Yeah, they have that in their value set. It's a concerted effort at the very least.

You know, they're doing something about some level. Yeah. So we'll see. We'll see if Trout hits the timetable as expected. Late July, it's got 30 days to get it in there. 30 more days after this one. Let's talk about where the money went this weekend. Some players that ended up on a lot of rosters.

Not surprisingly, after his debut last week, David Festa was a popular pickup looking at the 12 team of Rotowire online championship over at the NFBC. Even though the first start wasn't great from a results perspective, did David Festa deliver as advertised that his arsenal look as good as you hoped against the Diamondbacks his first time out? I do think that the Stuff Plus model is missing a decent change up for for David Festa. You know one look at a change up doesn't always get you what you need. You kind of want about 30 pitches for Stuff Plus for change ups. So

what I saw was a really good fastball and a really good slider and I thought his location plus would be below 100 but it ended up being around 100. One thing that bothered me was a little bit of a lack of swing and miss for David Festa and you know he wasn't there in the swing strike rate, it wasn't there in the strike out rate. I think he'll be able to get past this. It was a little bit of like getting people to strike too and then not being able to get them to strike out. But it's weird to say that

and also say he has a good slider. You know what I mean? Like I think he'll figure it out. I think his next start would be better. It's interesting, he had zero whiffs on his fastball not that you throw fastballs for whiffs but like you would usually get some he threw 33 four seamers zero whiffs and let me see where he threw those maybe they weren't high enough yeah I mean he threw he threw them high in the zone but

he didn't throw them along the black high in the zone and So there's also a sort of ABS minor league strike zone question here maybe where he was aiming was the top of the strike zone in the minor leagues and Here people are like no, that's just sort of middle high, you know I Would expect the one thing that do like is that his groupings are tight. So I think he might have okay command. Some people didn't like David Festa's, um, delivery mechanics, but I don't know.

They seem fine to me. Yeah. It's funny. Like the, the quabbles with the deliveries. I'm like, well, I don't know what you're looking at. It looked like he's got a little bit of a shoulder rotation coming back or something. I don't know.

It looked a little funky to me, but. He gets a little tight and together in the back, and then he comes out, whatever. As long as he's not tipping anything, I don't. If it works for him, it works for him. I think that the results would look a little different if he'd been tipping. Yeah.

It was more like soft contact and just like, just not turning two strike counts into outs. Like, I definitely want more information. I didn't go, I don't think I saw anybody do this. I don't think people were dropping $100 bids on him, but like, he was definitely worth sort of like a $20 bid, which is like, I'd like him this week and then maybe he'll be in the rotation after that, you know? So he's got his next start Wednesday against the Tigers.

It's also at home. Seems like a decent one. Yeah. It's a really soft landing spot. So I think you would plan on throwing him there. If you roster him, you wouldn't pick him up and stash him through that. If you can't use them there, then it's really tough spot. And then going into the All-Star break,

he could have a two step. He's got the White Sox on Monday next week. And then if he goes again, it would be the Giants in the last game before the break. I see the road wire grid has Paddock in there, but I don't- That'd be a pretty sexy week if he had it. Yeah, Paddock is throwing bullpen sessions though,

so we'll see. Yeah, but he also looked really bad. Like I saw him in his Oakland start and I expected, you know, you know, he could be able to do well against Oakland. And he got Oakland twice and in the combined he got seven innings with eight earned runs, three strikeouts and four walks. Chris Paddock did. And, you know, yes, you can say he did fine against Colorado. Colorado is one of the worst offensive teams, especially on the road. But that was right after giving up seven to the Yankees. So like, I don't know how much I trust Chris Paddock.

I find the twins. Yeah, I've been out the whole time, but yes, you have. Given his injury history, especially, I don't think I'm the twins. Yeah, I've been out the whole time, but, uh, yes, you have. I given his injury history, especially, I don't think I'm rushing him back to have him make that last start before the break, at the very least I'm giving him that extra time to recover and then maybe coming out of the second half, thinking about if I like them enough, if I'm the twins, putting them back in the rotation then, but I think you're right. It's still a question.

And maybe these next few starts from Festa sort of determine their course of action with him. We did get Christian Scott back from the minor leagues, at least we're supposed to get him back because Tyler McGill went down. Oh, but it hasn't been announced or anything. It hasn't been announced yet. He's in play. And I looked, I looked to see in my leagues, if Christian Scott

was just held through the demotion. It looks like he was pretty much's in play. And I looked, I looked to see in my leagues if Christian Scott was just held through the demotion. It looks like he was pretty much held in all the leagues I'm in where people were just like, I'm waiting it out. I had him on one of my trees. I didn't get him, but I had him on one of my trees. Yeah. So if he's back, it looks like it might be Thursday against the Nationals.

That could be the return of Christian Scott to the big leagues. Which I really like him. I think he has a really nice, I think he has nice delivery, good sweeper, good enough fastball, really nice home park situation. I like Knack and and Landon Knack and David Peterson. David Peterson was a good to start streamer for this week. I don't not sure yet if he's beyond that.

I think he's specific to his schedule. I want to play him at home. I want to play him in two start weeks. Landon Nack I really like but it might just be one start. It's a good start this week. I forget who it's against but it's a good start this week. But then I don't know what's happening in that Dodgers rotation going forward. There's a fair amount of players. Now when Bueller comes back, I feel like just neck goes back down. Yeah, because you know, Paxton is a kind of wild card where he's he kind of found something by going to the curve instead of the cutter. And I talked to him about that a little bit.

But I don't think the curve is that good of a pitch either. And it's not like when he was vintage Paxton, he had that great cutter and he didn't even really throw the curve sometimes. And now he's just all of a sudden going all in on this curve and doesn't have great command, doesn't have great stuff. There's always a chance that they move on from Paxton and keep NAC up. But I wonder if Paxton, the play with Paxton in LA is just, you know, win some games with him during the regular season and manage landed NACs, you know, the manager, some of the young people's innings. So they were more available and the whole league hasn't seen them.

So, you know, maybe Landon Nack is a better, uh, better for them in the postseason if he's, you know, you've kept his innings low and the whole league hasn't seen them and you could break him out on surprise series against whoever it is. Yeah, that's true. It's a matchup against Arizona this week for Landon Nack. And yeah, as you said, not necessarily a lock to stay in the rotation, even though he's pitched well with limited opportunities that he's had so far. I was trying to figure out why Michael Tolya was picked up in a bunch of leagues.

The Rockies have seven games at home, so I think that alone probably made him interesting. Either Harris Montero was sent down, I think they made the change. Yeah, designated for assignment, not even. Oh, I mean, sent down. They said we've had enough. That's weird. He hits the ball hard. And this year was like one of his better strikeout years,

but he wasn't turning it into power on the field. Well, that's one more one more downturn for the Nolan Arundel trade between the Rockies and Cardinals. I didn't even think of that angle. Yeah. February 1st, 2021. It was look at this return. Elluris Montero, Austin Gomber,

Jake Summers, Tony Losey or Mateo Heal. And they had to get 50 million dollars and they had to eat money. Wow. Like just it got worse. It was bad at the time and it actually got worse. I think this is an argument against Mike Trout being traded. Because I think. We said it might not be a good return. Yeah.

Wouldn't the Mike Trout trade be like the Nolan Arnado trade? It'd be like, we don't want to pay all of this. We'll pay you some. We don't expect great prospects back, you know. Generally, I mean, I think it's possible it would be like that. Yeah, it could be unproductive and unpopular. But Trout is higher regarded, right? Yes, I think so. But Nolan Aronato at the time of that trade.

Oh, he was still good. February of 2021, he was still good. Before the back injury last year, he was still pretty good. His first year in St. Louis, he was really good. Second year in St. Louis, still very good. 2023 wasn't bad until the end. Yeah, he just seems lost now, but they got three really quality seasons overall from Nolan Aronado in St. Louis. So I think this is still a pretty big L for the Rockies as

an org and one that makes you mad as a fan. You're like, why are we trading this guy for that group of players? Which is, yeah, that's, that's what I'm trying to get at with the angels and trout is like, that's what we're going to do. Like, right. You're not going to get elite prospects back for Mike trout. We're going to trade him for a six starter and a reliever and a high variance, you know, 18 year old that may never make the big leagues. I think that's where if you're one of those teams that can take on a 20 million dollar player that doesn't necessarily play all the time,

and I say 20 million being the discounted price where the angels are picking up the rest, maybe you take that chance. Oh, I'm saying from the buying team, I would do it like you do. I'm saying from the selling team, like from the angels perspective, you would just do it. I'm just saying from the selling team, like from the angels' perspective, it's going to be like, okay, he was a legend. He was like, you know, the best player in team history maybe. And we traded him for a bag of balls. Yeah, very disappointing.

But the Tolya situation, I guess with Montero gone, I mean, the playing time outlook looks better. He's not chasing as much outside the zone, hits the ball hard, barrels it up. Nine homers in 37 games this year. The slash line's ugly. It's got a few steals. Is there something here or is this just another day in Colorado? Two 13 career average at home, I guess.

164 away. Oh man. People chasing homers. I guess that's it. I didn't take part in this one. Yeah, I didn't either. But hey, to each their own. We talked about it a little bit at the end of last week, but one thing I noticed with Heston Kirstad is that he's one game away from picking up

a fifth game in the outfield. There you go. And that'll unlock the because he came out with your eligibility in season. Yeah, there's some things he's U.T. only, there's some he's first base, like it varies a little bit from place to place. So you just kind of watching that in season total to see if he can qualify somewhere else, like it's five starts is what he needs. So I wanted to see that they're about to get there.

To highlight the fact that he hasn't hit a ball 110. So I went and found comps of hitters this year that have a good hard hit rate over 45%, but have not hit the ball 110. And I think this does describe an interesting group for Heston Kyrstad because there are some who sort of wonder if he's got all that power, if he's going to be on the JD, like a healthy young JD Martinez side or an Elliott Rommel side or if he's going to be more like a Kerry Carpenter or a Francisco Lindor.

I would say that, you know, combining this level of raw power with good game power, but being 25 years old, means that he's probably pretty close to his peak already. He's probably pretty close to his peak already. And I sort of guesstimating, but I would guesstimate that Heston Kirstad's peak power output is going to be around 25 homers. It's sort of an educated guess looking at the Max. The Max EV is the raw power, but he's been pretty good at hard hit rates. He's had better Max EVs in the the past and we've seen him barrel balls but if that maxi B has some effect one thing you will notice on that list of cops is just

Nobody who's like an effective sort of 35 homerun hitter, you know in the big leagues right now You know all those guys are they have some decent power, but none of them is is is, you know, elite power. I think it'll just come down to whether or not he hits for average and gets on base at such a high clip that he's a fixture in the heart of the order for a long time on a good team. Like if that's the case, then being a 25 homerun guy isn't bad. But if he ends up hitting 250 with a 310 OBP, then he's going to be a bottom half of the order hitter on a good team. of hitting 250 with a 310 OBP, then he's going to be a bottom half of the order

hitter on a good team. And that's going to be that little toggle that when he's slumping, knocks him off shallow league rosters, even, even at his peak, but if we had two better outcome, then it's, it's great. We have two examples on his team of guys who, uh, represent the, the risk, which is, uh, he could be a Santander or an Austin Hayes. Now, he's a left-hander, so he'd probably be better off than Hayes. Santander is a switch-hitter.

But both those guys are like the 25 homer, 310 OVP that you're talking about. And both those guys have not had any dynasty value in fantasy leagues like for the last three years. You can get Santander whenever you want. Not a lot of trade value, but at the same time, if you were rostering Santander and competing, I think you were doing pretty well because he played a ton. The power ticked a little above. He had 33 homers in 2022, 28 last year. So the run production was really good. And that average, while it's not like jump off the page good was probably not hurting you. So it ticked a lot of boxes in those deeper

leagues where... Yeah, Santander was a little bit underrated. Yeah, like just, and I don't know if I, you know, he's a free agent at the end of this season. And if someone's going to go and throw him Avi Garcia money, you get a better track record of health and more consistency in production. But I do think he has a profile that. Is going to be interesting to watch. Yeah. Well, with Kirstad,

I do think he kind of fits into our conversation earlier about I'm it's it's not obvious to me where he slots in from 10, 12 and 15 team leagues. Like obviously in 15 team leagues probably going to be useful at least on a streamer level, you know, but does he have the talent the top end talent to be a 10 team stalwart. And, you know, I'm in a 12 team league where I've got him and I'm competing. And, um, I've been shopping him. I might just call him up and put him on the lineup. There was one other name that was picked up in some deeper leagues, Davis

Daniel, getting a chance for the angels with the injuries they have been dealing with in the rotation. And I was curious when people were getting excited about him, what they may have seen that led them to bid in the first place beyond the opportunity. I know he pitched really well just this first time out against the Tigers, eight scoreless innings, eight Ks, that will get our attention in the league star for pitching. But where do we go from here with Davis Daniel getting this chance in the Angels rotation? I mean, the news is not good.

If you're looking at this, you can see that his four-seam fastball's 91.7 miles an hour. The average, even for a starter, is about 93 and a half. So he's two ticks below average on the four-seam. Or then you look over at that little red bubble and you see that he's got two, three inches less ride than the average four-seam. And then you look at the change-up bubble and you see that he's got, you know, two, three inches less ride than the average four seam. And then you look at the change-up bubble and you go, wow, that change-up bubble is really close to the fastball bubble. You know what I mean? Like, those are really close to each other, so there's

just not that much of a difference in movement between the two. Then you look at over at the slider and while the slider movement looks nice horizontally and maybe some sort of a sweeper, it's 82.6 miles an hour. It's not probably going to be an elite sweeper. You still want 84-85 miles an hour on those. And then the curveball, it's 74.9 is one of the slower curveballs in the big leagues and yes it's big but then it's going to depend a lot on his command so I would like this profile a lot better if he threw a cutter and a sinker because then I could say oh he's got the sink he's got some some some things that can work and he will just keep everybody off balance as it is this is more a, two of these pitches need to be dominant for me to believe in him. And I don't think that's the case.

So yeah, the more, the more fastballs would be the best way out of this, as opposed to throwing those secondaries more. Because I think he's like, if you look at that fastball profile, it doesn't have ride and it's kind of more horizontal. And then you look at a slider and you realize that's like maybe a sweeper,

I think he's basically a sinker, a sinker sweeper guy in disguise. And so Davis Daniel, if you're a sinker sweeper guy, then you need a cutter or force, or like a more true force seam. If this is what he's calling his force seam seam then maybe a sinker would have a better depth and give him another look against righties whatever it is this being your only fastball at 92 miles an hour and I don't even know if it's so different that it's

loaded you know what I mean like yes this is this this reminds me of when George Springer said there uh, there's no easy pitchers in the rotation anymore. There's nobody who throws 92 with a slider. Well, I'm like, well, his name is Davis. Just wait till you see the angels, George. Yeah. I think it's interesting that Daniel and Ronzie Contreras were out there in a lot of leagues

and I kind of like Contreras more. I mean, we've seen at times better fastballs from Ronze Contreras were out there in a lot of leagues and I kind of like Contreras more. I mean we've seen at times better fastballs from Ruanze Contreras. I think he's getting some of the ride back that he's had in the past so that gives me a little bit of hope. And I just didn't think that Ruanze would be ready to be stretched out well but he did make it three innings and two strikeouts, two walks, one one earned against Oakland probably earns him another chance It's one of those guys that I would like to watch the chance from afar And not put too much skin in the game, but it is a guy I've circled as I've always thought he's kind of interesting especially if you can you know maintain that Vila maintain that shape

interesting especially if he can you know maintain that Velo, maintain that shape. Yeah might have a long runway here to actually see what he can do again as a starter with the Angels. On the drop side just a couple of names that stood out to me as healthy players who we thought were kind of interesting when they were playing more. Davis Schneider because of his approach and the quality of contact he can make. He's been sitting recently because of a slump, saw him get dropped a lot in the 12 team Rottawire online championship. And Dylan Moore, who also was playing a lot more for a little while, seems to be fading back into more of a part-time role.

Dylan Moore, I think is a little bit easier to call as a kind of a definitive thing, which is we as a league, we as a league, as fancy players, or as baseball as a league, has an idea of or, you know, as baseball as a league, has an idea of what Dylan Moore is. And it's mostly been a versus lefties utility guy. And I would consider that probably his future.

And so, you know, 31, it was improbable that he was going to break out past that no matter he's kind of ripped but beyond the Rippage. David Schneider I thought was breaking out in something real he's 25 years old he's a righty if you're playing him you know every day like they were and he's hitting for power then that's going to work but we also know he has an extreme pull fly ball thing going that without great raw power but he gets to his power a lot But I think that just makes you susceptible to streaks because as you know with Schneider

He already doesn't have great bat to ball and then you also know as a pitcher all he's trying to do is pull a fly ball I feel like you just fill up the bottom of the zone you try to throw a lot of sliders for strikes low in the zone and Then you just get him swinging at everything because he thinks oh, this is in the zone. I gotta take it pluck it, huh? So maybe this is just a bad streak, but I would say that you know You know keeper league you put him on the bench and you hold on to him Hope he gets out of it in these other other leagues you just have to kind of move on.

I think people are right because there are way too many one-plate appearances in his game log. I mean, if I'm just reading for David Schneider the numbers going back from yesterday and backwards, one-plate appearance, two, one-plate appearance, four, one, one, and then there's a stretch of four. And then there's a stretch of four and there's a zero in there. So yeah, that's that's makes me nervous enough, especially with the Blue Jays feeling like they need offense everywhere.

If they don't think that that's what they're getting from Schneider, then I guess that it's time to move on. Yeah. I look at it in this June numbers, 163, 218, 300 for the month, 87 plate appearances, pop the three homers but 25 strikeouts only six walks it was a 163 to 18300 month that will that will cause your playing time to dry up but I do think that approach as you described it is one that can lead you to bad slumps and yeah when he goes hot he goes red hot but you can't wait on

a player like that when playing time gets shaky and the skills are still Developing can't really wait on a player like that in a 12 team league So I think he made a lot of sense as a drop a little personal, you know, FAB results Run through real quick real embarrassing moment here Eloy Jimenez for 126 to me. Backup was two. Uh, I won in one 26 to two.

I on one level, I'm like, Hey man, I got my guy on the other level. I'm like, wow, I really wish I had pushed that number down before, uh, before the bids went through, uh, any case I'm in first and getting a player that I could just slot in at UTIL and go forward. He actually addresses some of my, um, minor needs in terms of like RBI. He's playing every day. He's healthy. He's running a little bit. I thought he was worth a hundred dollar bid. I don't know why he was out there. I bought a lot of Mitch Spence because I think he might have a two,

two starts this week. One of them might be against Baltimore, but it's Sunday in Oakland. And I'm willing to take that chance. I kind of like Spence, bought him in a couple places about Daniel Schneemann in one place. Tyler Freeman is losing his job and it might be to Schneemann. But then they also had a bunch of injuries in Cleveland. And so that's why John's John Kensky Noel is up. And so there's some opportunity there bought a land and knack

And then in the main event as always we are shopping with not much money and we spent $31 on Michael Kopec we needed a That was 31 to 6 We needed a second closer. We have Hoffman behind Hader and putting Kopeck in that mix, I think makes me feel better. Tyrone Taylor with Starly Marte out, uh, has a good schedule coming up. Uh, we, we wanted

to get that. Um, and then Spears and Yanni Chiringos just to have options because Seth Lugo is in Colorado and Tanner Hauck is in New York and it's maybe not the greatest of weeks to try to start those guys in those places. Yeah, fun having to try and stream deeper. Like you have good pictures that you like and you're like, I can't use them in those matchups and I got to pick up these other guys and horrible spot. We are having discussion on Satellugo in Colorado because Colorado even home,

their offense is like ninth best or something. And it's not a good offense. And so, you know, we've even seen some low scoring games in Colorado this year. It's just that I have this deep, deep standing, like I don't want to pitch a pitcher in New York or in Colorado for various reasons, many, many reasons. And so I'm, we're trying to avoid it right now. We might, might throw out.

I'm just laughing because the Brewers are in Colorado to start the week for a four game series. And I think it's a opener, start the week for a four game series. And I think it's opener, Kikel, Ray and Tobias Myers taking the ball. And I'm like, how well is this going to go? Like this is going to be the Colorado Funhouse series where the stupid Rockies

hang eights on the brewers every night. Colin Ray had like the greatest start the other day. Like what what kind of magic they brew in in Colorado? I mean, in Milwaukee, it's crazy. Colin Ray's not a good pitcher. Hey, he's not a bad pitcher.

I think that's that's a this is we got a little insight into the conversations in Milwaukee in the front office. All we can get is Colin Ray. He sucks. He's not a bad pitcher. Let's get the job done. I just think every time he throws a four-seamer, it's not every time, but most of the time when he throws a four-seamer, it gets hit.

And he's got a lot of pitches. At what point does he just stop throwing the four-seamer completely? And that's what I wondered. It's been going down every season for the last four. Yeah, it might just disappear. Might just be completely gone at some point. And that might be the best version of Colin Ray we've ever seen.

Once that happens, because he throws his secondary is not very much 8% splitter, 18% slider, 5% curve ball. He's a three fastball guy. Three fastball guy, one fastball, definitely not very good, but he also added that sweeper too. I think that was the new pitch for him this year, new wrinkle. So maybe that's part of why it's working for Colin Ray. But I'm a little worried about that group going into Colorado to start the week. It'll be a good test to see if that Rockies lineup can wake up just a little bit.

We are going to go on our way out the door. A reminder, you can get a subscription to the athletic for two dollars a month for the first year at the athletic dot com slash rates and barrels. Find Eno on Twitter at Eno Saris. Find me at Derek Van Riper. Find the pod at rates and barrels. You can get a link to join our discord in the show description. That is going to do it for this episode of rates and barrels.

We're back with you on Tuesday. Thanks for listening.