Rates & Barrels - Torpedo Bats, A Yankees Home-Run Parade & First Weekend Takeaways

Episode Date: March 31, 2025

Eno and DVR discuss a weekend filled with homers in the Bronx, 'Torpedo' bats, Mookie Betts' two-homer game and other takeaways from the first weekend of the 2025 season. Plus, an early look at bat speed risers and fallers, and where the money was spent in pursuit of fantasy baseball roster upgrades this weekend. Rundown 4:37 Rule 3.02: Bats 10:07 An Attempt to Properly Account for the Impact of the 'Torpedo' Bat in Yankees-Brewers series 14:05 Mookie Betts' Surprising Two-Homer Game 19:27 Colton Cowser's Thumb Injury; Opportunity for Heston Kjerstad 27:08 Spencer Strider Progresses in Rehab Assignment 31:59 How Many PAs to Determine Bat Speed Changes? 42:47 Where the Money Went -- Weekend Fantasy Baseball Pickups Follow Eno on Bluesky: @enosarris.bsky.social Follow DVR on Bluesky: @dvr.bsky.social e-mail: [e-mail] Join our Discord: https://discord.gg/FyBa9f3wFe Subscribe to The Athletic: theathletic.com/ratesandbarrels Hosts: Derek VanRiper & Eno Sarris Producer: Brian Smith Executive Producer: Derek VanRiper Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

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Then you need an HR and finance platform that thinks like you do. Workday is the AI platform that helps propel your organization, your workforce, and your industry into the future. Workday, moving business forever forward. Welcome to Rates and Barrels to Monday, March 31st. Derek Van Riper, you know, Sarah's here with you, recapping a busy first weekend in Major League Baseball season.

We have allegations of juiced balls. We have torpedo bats. We have another fab run. We have some players on the move. We have new fab run, so we have some players on the move. We have new closers. We have all sorts of things that are kicking around from the last few days to talk about. Torpedo bats. Torpedo bats.

That's the only thing anyone's really talking, writing, expressing any sort of emotion about right now around baseball. It's all about the torpedo bat. So we'll dig into what the torpedo bat is and why it exists. And there's gonna be a lot of bat talk on the show this week. Let me just put that out there right now on this Monday morning. A lot of bat talk coming. A special guest tomorrow, who is a bat expert.

All he is is an expert on bats, on science of bats, on the physics of bats. That's gonna be a whole show about, you know, the science behind choosing a bat. You may be familiar with some of his work. Keenan Long from Long Ball Labs will be on tomorrow. You know, he was this... I did a story about how no two bats are the same. He's a bat tester that helps players get the best out of their bats by picking... making sure that they are to the specific specifications they want. So he will be talking about all the science of bats by picking, making sure that they are to the spesifications they want.

So he will be talking about all the science of bats. Then special guest, new co-host this week. New Wednesdays. Coming on Wednesday, so you gotta listen to that. And we'll be taking enough different angles that, you know, I hope it won't get annoying. If you think about it, it dovetails pretty nicely with some of the new stat cast stats

that we're getting about where the batter stands in the box, where the contact point is. And so we're gonna be talking a lot of hitting this week, but we won't forget our pitchers. We won't forget our pitchers. We will not. We will definitely talk pitching as well. I was actually having a conversation on the way back from San Francisco, sitting next

to someone watching some games. Turned out another baseball fan and he has a grandson getting into analytics, going to a special program for it, really cool stuff. And one thing I was talking to him about on the plane was I thought it was interesting how little we talk about the bat prior to this weekend, right? Nice. Saturday morning before I got on the plane is when the Yankees went off and had an absolute hit parade against the Brewers, right? And it was like that all weekend. The Yankees were crushing the ball. There are a lot of factors for that. But think about how much we talk about pitch grips

and pitch design, right? It's 80 degrees and they're facing Nester Cortez who was throwing some 80 poo out there. And I mean, Nester Cortez, little bit of a underlying story is that Nester Cortez has lost below and that he became a much more interesting pitcher when he started throwing 92 plus. Now that he's sitting back 89, 90,

this is the possible outcome. So, you know, torpedo bats or not, like, you know, they could have hit nine homers against Nestor Cortez and family. It was also like a debut, wasn't it? Like, is it? Oh, the Brewers pitching staff right now is just destroyed already, right?

Yeah. I mean, Freddy Peralta started the opener, pitched pretty well overall, talked about that. You know, you bring Nestor down about one and a half ticks on his fastball out there on Saturday. It's a guy the Yankees hitters know pretty well, too. So aside from the weather conditions, the VLOP being down, some nice bat technology. It's also possible they had something on Nestor Cortez. Right. I mean, that's that's not out of the question either.

But yeah, you had a guy making his major league debut pitching in that game and the Brewers have their home opener on Monday and the Elvin Rodriguez is supposed to give them 80 pitches that's where they're at on game four of the season so that gives you an idea of just how banged up they are to begin the season just in that fast set and that's not to take anything away from what happened look 15 home runs in a series no matter who you do that against, is impressive. It's also funny that there were ever any doubts about Aaron Judge as a guy people would want to have as the second or third overall pick in drafts because he had a monster series

to start the year. But one thing I wanted to throw out there to start today's show is just when you think about the bat, people see an unusually shaped bat, they think. Is that legal? The rules on bats are pretty straightforward. It's MLB rule 302. The bat shall be a smooth round stick, not more than 2.61 inches in diameter at the thickest part

and not more than 42 inches in length. The bat shall be one solid piece of wood. It also notes that experimental bats can't be used until the manufacturer has secured approval from Major League Baseball of his design and methods of manufacture." Well that last bit is a pretty big asterisk. It basically says a bat is a bat when we say it's a bat. So, I mean, think about it, 42 inches is the most ridiculous thing right now. Everyone's out there with 30, I mean, just for context, almost everybody,

I would say 99% of baseball is between 30, like 30 and 33 inches. You know, there's nobody that's got a 42 inch, but somebody came out there with a 42 inch bat, we would all immediately start laughing. I guess maybe some people saw this torpedo bat and started laughing, but really the difference between the torpedo bat and the regular bat

is the sort of the end has been shaved a little bit. And you made reference to this little cup. The little cup on the end of the bat is a nod to the fact that you don't really be wanting, you don't really be wanting, you don't really want to make contact with the end of the bat. So you kind of, you take volume out there so you can have volume in a better place. And that is actually the entire idea behind a torpedo bat is take that

cupping idea and take it a little bit further and just shave off the end of the bat, you know, so it's like skinnier at the end of the bat than it is on the barrel. And basically what that does is, you know, make it a little bit denser in the parts where you're normally making contact. And, you know, generally, you know, it is a truth that the further along the bat

you make contact, the worse it is. I mean, when you're coming barrel and barrel plus, like barrel to end, it's bad to make contact off the end of the bat you make contact the worse it is. I mean when you're coming barrel and barrel plus like barrel to end it's bad to make contact off the end of the bat. You don't want to make contact there so don't optimize the bat to make contact there. And that's what the torpedo bat has done. We're looking at a picture of it on YouTube right now. Jazz Chisholm's torpedo bat. Not everybody did it you know. We had a bunch of great stories. I recommend checking them out. Brandon Cootie and Chris Kershner were all over this. And Aaron Judge was like, I don't even want one of those.

Aaron Judge didn't use one. And there were a ton of great stories. Brandon Cootie had the one about the MIT physicist, Aaron Leonard, who helped kind of spearhead the process of designing this. Lenny, and I believe he's now a coach for the Marlins, an analyst for the Marlins. So it's interesting to me, there's a few things here

that just kinda caught my ear reading these stories. One was that there were so many people around and inside the game who didn't really know about these bats or think much about them until this weekend, right? They probably heard something about it and said, oh, I like my bat. I think there was a story that the Cubs had had them at spring training, you know, and that like Nikki Lopez has one and he took it from

Cubs spring training to the Angels. So you know they're not totally new. There are things that people have seen but yes you could be surprised by it if you thought that was like a practice bat or a spring training bat or oh, is that something I should care about now? That's the energy that I got. Yeah, oh, maybe I should check my bats after what happened this weekend. But again, the context of what was happening,

there's a lot to it. And the fact that Aaron Judge doesn't even use one of these and still pop four homers this weekend kind of gives you the all you need to know. You don't have to do it. But I think it does depend on the type of hitter you are. It's a lot like club fitting in golf. I think that's the way you should probably take something

you may have done yourself in real life and think about how players swing the bat and how you'd want to tailor every bat to be comfortable for where guys are most likely to make contact. Yeah, you know, here's a visual that I think can really bring it across. I don't know that I have her last name off the top of my head, but it's Vivian, her handle on Blue Sky is SunshineVVN,

and she's a data scientist, and she ran the numbers on basically, she like went through and like found the angles, like used the broadcast TV and like described the bat and then like did some collision estimations and she found that the collision efficiency. So like the, the sweet spot basically is in a new place with jazz's bat versus a regular bat. And that new place is like an inch or a half inch closer to the handle. So maybe it's better for pull hitters or people that that get jammed more often You noticed that on Volpe's Homer

It was a pitch that you might consider him jammed on or at least it was like a kind of an up-and-in-cutter Yeah up-and-in-cutter It would have been probably a called strike just at the top of the zone on the inside part of the plate didn't look like a particularly bad pitch and I think he only hit it out at like 91 and change for the E. So he didn't kill it. The bat might have really helped him if it's that close. Yeah.

In the park, the park and the conditions are factors too, but that to me when I was looking at the map of like a lot of pitches were just clear misses, places you should not pitch good major league hitters. Right. 90 mile an hour kind of middle slightly up. Yeah. Yeah.

But that one when I looked at it, that probably wasn't, one of them was a cutter to judge in the same spot. I thought, I think Aaron Judge is showing us he gets to stuff up and in like that enough where I'm not looking at that as good of a pitch against Judge as it would be against Volpe. And Volpe's still in it.

You think you jam Volpe, he's not gonna hit home run you, yeah. That was probably one of the more surprising at a glance sort of things. I'm like, that might have been a spot where that bat in particular did make a very big difference. But I think the general takeaway that these bats hit all of those home runs

is just objectively false, because not everyone's even using them. Right, and maybe the very beginnings of some idea that maybe the balls a little different this I mean I know that it seems like balls are flying out but the hardest thing about this kind of analysis is that the weather is different every you know year to year so you just you don't know how much it is just the change and you know like the 80 degree weather. It was crazy though that the next day was like 58. So welcome to New York.

That was a pretty intense couple of days weather wise, 80 and sunny, and then the next day was just overcast and nasty. And judge still hit a home run. So we'll have so much more on this. I mean, there's a give and take with any bat design that you make and we'll have different opinions on that. We'll get the scientists opinion on it And I just thought it was a it was a moment in time where yeah, we might have

Overdone it in terms of how much attention we're paying this like you're there's so many other things that contributed to that the weather The picture all that stuff. It wasn't just the bats that did it But on the other hand, maybe we haven't thought about this enough in the past because it was pointed out by Patrick Dubuque on a piece on baseball perspectives. Like we don't even have that many words about the bat. We don't know how much each bat weighs.

Yeah, and we don't have like great amount of words for like, I mean, Patrick pointed out like, what's the word for between the handle and the sweet spot? It's like getting jammed, but what's the bat word for that, you know? Maybe I'll ask them over these questions of Keenan tomorrow, because he probably has lots of words for these things, we just don't have them maybe in the common parlance,

you know? Right, they're just not mainstream. I'm gonna guess Keenan's gonna shed some pretty interesting light on some details about bats you'd never thought about but that is exactly the conversation I was having on the plane was I think this is an area of studies, it's an opportunity. People don't talk enough about the bat and we talk all the time about pitch design and grips and seam shifted wake and all these different things that have just like completely dominated the conversation

but the instrument, the blunt instrument used to hit these pitches is not discussed nearly enough and that might be changing at least for the next week or so, perhaps for the long term good as well. Among the other things that happened this weekend, we were enjoying some post show beer at the time but Mookie Betts has a two homer game on Friday. After our second live show at Bear Bottle in San Francisco, Mookie Betts just says, hey, everybody, you know what? I'm down almost 20 pounds, but I'm fine with a two homer game.

He had a scheduled day off on Saturday. I mean, I can't believe it happened that quickly. You know, it took less than a weekend for Mookie Betts to show us that our worry was apparently for naught or at least to ease some of the concerns we had going into the final round of drafts. I did want to check this real quick because I mentioned it and I don't want to mention something and not look at it but it's not the ball. Like Mookie didn't hit the homers because of the ball, Judge didn't hit the homers because of the ball, judge didn't hit the homers because of the ball. I'm looking right now at the historical drag, which is the the drag coefficient on the ball.

And one of these days this weekend, the 28th, had the most drag on the ball since 2017. Now it's just one day. And if you look at any given year, like, you know, it kind of jumps around day to day because And not because there's anything insidious going on but because batch to batch and ball to ball You know things get crazy like it's a handmade ball Anyway, the highest drag since 2017 for a single day, which high drag means Not good for offense.

So I just wanted to point that out. Mookie is so interesting to me because when he hits homers, a lot of times it's just like, oh, how did he get his bat to that ball? Like it's like something that, like an inside breaking ball. And he just like, you know,

just sort of like whipped his bat around and got it. Maybe we were wrong to think that he'd be down in strength. I mean, I do think it's got to hurt him somewhat that he missed all that time and, you know, wasn't able to do a lot of the same normal training he's done. But I think the one of the hardest things to figure out is an aging, is an aging veteran. Like, it's just, but I think one of the hardest things to figure out is an aging veteran.

Like it's just, you always wanna, you don't wanna be, you almost wanna be a year early on these guys than to get that like, you're like, oh yeah, he is toast, you know? But it was way too early to call him Mookie Toast, I guess. Well, it's also too early to declare him fine, I think. Yeah, right. I just think it's, hey, maybe we were a little too worried or maybe I was a little

too worried about Mookie based on that. It's nice to see him doing typical Mookie Betts things. That's my weird way of saying it. I'm glad a ball 100. Okay. Right. And we did see they did add I think it's bats speeds just from the second half of 2023 years at all of 2023.

It kind of quietly got added into savant, even though it launched last year as a public racing thing. So I did notice that if you look at the bat speed from 2023 for Mookie Betts, average bat speed 71.2, which again, he's he's so good back to ball. I'm not surprised that his average swing is in that lower end range. Last year, dipped to 69.1, put him in the 14th percentile, and for the handful of swings we've seen so far this year, he's at 68.2. So those longer term questions are fair and at some point that will become a problem. Even if it's not

related to anything that's happened to him health-wise this spring, he is slowly losing some bat speed. Yeah, I had this little nugget from an appearance on M on swings over 75 is 740. 740 is the slug on swings over 75 miles an hour? Yeah, once you make contact. And the slugging on under 74 and under is 440. So most of the real damage is done on big bat swings.

Now, some guys sort of choose their moments to swing hard and kind of have that, say, A swing. Some guys swing hard consistently. There is a give and take with swing and miss, obviously. Most of the guys with shorter bat speed But also most of the guys with shorter with less bat speed make a lot of contact You can't argue that they necessarily mean the same. It's not causal necessarily They could be in the big leagues with poor bat speed because they make contact, you know

Like they could not be in the big leagues otherwise So, I mean a lot of the stuff is in its infancy and we're figuring it out. Mookie, I'm leaning towards just fine. But yeah, I mean 99.7 peak exit VELO so far. Maybe he won't actually, maybe he'll hit 20 homers this year, or 19. And we'll just have, remember the first two

because they came so quickly. Maybe, or he'll just do typical mooky stuff and make us all look stupid over the course of the year. That's always a possibility, but it was just nice to see him back kind of in the, in the positive, given all the stuff he's been dealing with for the last couple of weeks with that illness. What does beauty have to do with sports

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CanAmMotorcycles.com. Hit pause on whatever you're listening to and hit play on your next adventure. Stay two nights and get a $50 Best Western gift card. Life's the trip, make the most of it at Best Western. Visit bestwestern.com for complete terms and conditions. I did see Colton Kouser was placed on the IL with a fracture in his thumb, and we have a timetable too.

Jacob Kelvin Meyer of the Baltimore Sun has a six to eight week timetable for a return for Kouser, which has prompted the Orioles to bring Dylan Carlson up from AAA, but probably leaves the door wide open for Heston Kerstad to be a big side platoon bat for this Orioles club in the absence of Kauser. I would imagine this is gonna be one of Kerstad's

best chances to establish himself as part of their mix. Yeah, here comes an opportunity in the midst of tragedy. I mean, I think Kauser was set for a great year. There was a lot of things that he did over the course of last year that showed that he was making adjustments. He has that premium bat speed and premium eye and athleticism that you could say,

oh, this guy could really take a huge step forward. And I'm not saying he won't this year, but it's always a little bit harder when not only do you lose that quantity of the six to eight weeks, but that means that when he comes back, he's behind everybody else Yeah, yeah, so it might be

June before Kousers fully recovered and all the way past this injury Gunnar Hunterson supposed to be back on Thursday though first day He's eligible to come up the aisle so some good news there. That's from Matt Weirich of the Baltimore Sun I did notice Trey Turner was held at the starting lineup again Monday Not that there's a lot of like day-to-day analysis fantasy wise in this show But those are always frustrating the the weekend injury that bleeds into the first day of the week We're like, okay Is this an IL situation or is this the last of like three necessary things? What it is? It's a back injury. I believe

Weird yeah lower back spasms was the the diagnosis He's hoping to return Wednesday against the Rockies because they have an off day In case it rains if you have that ability to not use them till Friday. You can't use them Probably sidestep and no it's too bad because apparently the wind is really blowing out today in Philly So some of these games could be high-scoring. Yeah that lineup should be able to go off in those conditions We're also watching Jose Ramirez. I don't know if you happen to see this over the weekend He had a pretty awkward head first slide It was one of the games I was watching on my flight and to believe in that game with a shoulder injury imaging came back Negative, so that's good. It's just the kind of injury that you're always wondering like even if you're playing through it

Do you ever get back to you a hundred percent like Trevor talks about this all the time on our show that guys are just Eventually just running the health meter down closer and closer to zero over the course of the year. So if Jose Ramirez was at 95 before that slide, he's probably at like 60 right now and then how long does he have to play at that sort of level? That's the only like main concern I have is like, okay, he'll probably be back soon. But I'd love to see him have a few hard hit balls and just like do typical Jose Ramirez things to have a little extra confidence

that this isn't gonna be a problem. Yeah, I mean, they definitely play through things where the imaging says you're fine, you should be out there, but it doesn't feel great, and you don't know how much you trust it, and I would stay away from him maybe in DFS or in Six picks. Oh, no, did it lock for today? Oh, I don't know. I'm mine is already in the day games I forgot to do it before the day games Yes, you do on the show do it on the show do what I talk you should join us

We have a group on auto new six picks rates and barrels. The password is froggy I believe that's enough information if you want to go to the discord. There's a link there There's an auto picker so that if you don't want to make like if you're in Derek's situation and you just kind of want to have a replacement level day because it's kind of it accrues you crew sort of Value over time as a player You can just click the auto picker the auto picker also saves time because it just puts of, it accrues, you accrue sort of value over time as a player. You can just click the auto picker. The auto picker also saves time because it just puts some players in there and then you

can be like, oh, I don't like that guy and make a couple quick decisions. Also what's nice about it is when you click like, okay, corner and field and you have like a certain amount of money, you have 120 bucks to buy six players. When you click corner and field, it shows you the handedness of your batter and the handedness of the pitcher. So you can very quickly kind of be like, Oh, I want a righty versus left in Philly or I want a righty versus lefty in Cincy. Boom, you know, so you can make some quick decisions. And Hey, yesterday I was number one in the rates and barrels and number two globally.

I got my first silver medal. I don't even remember who I picked. And I thought it would be too much. Oh, I picked DeGrom and Julio Rodriguez and some other people, but you know, I thought it'd be too much to think about. It really does only take like two or three minutes. I bet you that Derek is done.

I'm literally on my last player right now. That was a perfect, nearly perfect filibuster. I had a feeling you could do it. Had a lot of confidence going in. I'm like, I could do this without the auto picker today if I need to. I'm just gonna let it rip. And if you're looking at Derek's head right now,

he's wearing our new merch. I am in control of a select number of these hats. So I will right now throw this down. There's like seasons, I don't know if it's like around a month, the winner of the first segment of our pick six league will get a hat. I will stick to that. Very cool.

Okay, that's awesome. So you have to keep track of that. I can't help you on that one. I have Niv to help us out. That's true. Yeah, Niv can definitely help. Thanks to Niv for setting this up and getting the auto picker in place too. It's nice to have that option to help us out. That's true, yeah, Niv can definitely help. Thanks to Niv for setting this up and getting the auto picker in place too.

It's nice to have that option if you need it. I rolled out Adley, Jordan Westberg, Bobby Wood Jr., Luis Robert, and Drew Rasmussen and Ryan Helsley. What I have been doing a lot of times is stacking a starter and a reliever together, trying to get a win and a save. If it goes well, it's gonna go well for you in all sorts of ways.

Yeah, there's enough people playing in the contest where it's a little bit more like a like a tournament sort of approach if you're thinking about it from like DFS terms, right? But today was the first time I've actually split the starter from the reliever. I did a mini brewer stack against Chris Bubich. You would. I did Jackson Churio in the closer. Yes, I would bet against Chris

Bubich. You don't like Chris Bubich. Not much. And then I did a mini Philly stack based on The Wind, so Rio Muto and Harper, even though I only got the handedness advantage on one of those. So anyway, I think it's fun and please join us and maybe you'll get a hat. All right, great filibustering. I had a great time by the way at Bare Bottle. Oh thanks to, great filibustering. I had a great time, by the way, at Bare Bottle. Two live shows. Oh, thanks everybody who came out, yeah. Yeah, had a great turnout for those shows,

gave away a bunch of hats, and that's the, if you want a hat, they are giveaways this time around. At some point, at some point in the future, there will be merch for purchase. I don't know how far into the future that will be. It's on the roadmap. It's something that we would like to do. But yeah, two awesome shows.

Be sure to go back and listen to those if you didn't already. I bet you the next time we do live shows, we're gonna have some live video from the event too, which will bring you there if you weren't there. But yeah, looking forward to more events like that in the future. Thanks again to Lester Koga and the great team at Bear Bottle took great care of us throughout the week. The beer is so good. The beer is really good. The Kayakers Cove is really good. They still probably have some to go so probably have it on tap get down there So you maybe didn't miss the beer even if you missed us live last week

One other news item to get to Spencer Strider pitching a triple-a guinette getting closer to his return three innings one earned six K's Just a couple of walks. What do we think is the stuff mostly back? Do we have some triple-a stuff numbers? We don't have those yet in hand, but I would assume he's I mean the K's were there. He looked good in spring I don't I don't I don't anticipate something being off here. I Just I think we had a mailbag question. I think the mailbag question is the real question. I don't think it's the stuff It's the innings. And just how deep will he go in the innings? What did you say it was three innings?

It was three innings, but they're trying to taper his innings so he can go longer in the starts that matter, right? I think this was all sort of like a timing play. How can we build him up, ramp him up safely, and have him give us mostly regular, at least five inning type starts by the time he's activated from the I.L. I think that's the ultimate goal.

Is he going to do a full five inning start down there or they went like when he's ready for five, he's up. So if he's ready, if they think when he's ready for five, he's up, he could make one more minor league start. Yeah. And the original timetable is pointed to late April. They are going to be in Colorado at that time. So maybe they don't want to bring them back for that particular matchup. Maybe they bring it back ahead of that because they just lost four in a row to

the Padres and like, maybe it's time to activate Strider. I don't know. Yeah. I would say the Braves and Brewers probably had the worst first weekend by far of the teams out there. Yeah. The bigger question around these, I mean, if you were going to ask me who gets the most innings this year

Between these Woodruff would be the least pretty easily. Oh, yeah, so here's the question We'd actually put the question out there MJ Logan 42 1 to no projection systems are expecting 25 stars from Brandon Woodruff and Rangers Suarez This year in 22 from Spencer Strider are these realistic numbers based on what we know today? Suarez's number also adds a dozen relief appearances likely due to considerations of Andrew Painter eventually joining the Phillies rotation. I mean 22 is basically two-thirds of a full season from Strider and that seems just about right. In fact it might be low. It could be low. I think it's hedging against the possibility

of some kind of setback physically, right? Like it's just a reasonable outcome, I think. That feels super, super reasonable. The Woodruff one seems really high for me. I would probably flip him. I mean, because it's capsule, it's a shoulder capsule. It's a bigger deal, yeah. For Woodruff, I'd probably be low 20s for him and more like his either was down and spring too

So it's like maybe they want to keep him in the miners longer as he tries to build below or something You know yeah, and I think Ranger not too worried about that I also wonder if the the relief appearances that are projected end up just not happening because a different injury opens up the door somebody else Right, I don't think 25 is necessarily right for Ranger that could be a little bit on the conservative side for him So generally I think any but all three of those guys could hit those levels I wouldn't expect more from Woodruff and he seems to be maybe the most likely to fall short Given the severity of the injuries coming back from I've always thought that his use of Zardo is a little bit

Has a fair amount of injury risk beyond maybe what's obvious It's pretty obvious. He was hurt all year last year. He's got some pretty obvious in yeah That's something that really likes. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah, I would say yeah, I would definitely say that Woodruff is the one that I doubt the most and Strider could actually be tiny bit low All right Thanks for that question, MJ Logan. Because two thirds of his season means that he would be missing two months.

And I don't know if he, I'm definitely not, don't think he's missing two months. I think once he's back, they wanna just use it, like they kinda need to use him as a regular minimal restriction sort of starter, and that's the path they seem to be on. Yeah, health-wise, it doesn't make a lot of sense to like bring somebody back and then shut him down.

Like, cause then you have to build them all the way back up. And then it doesn't make a lot of sense if like bring somebody back and then shut him down like cuz then you have to build them all the way back up and then it doesn't make a lot of sense if he's pitching three in his guinette like Why is he pitching three? I think it's a lot like the skeins even though skeins went rehabbing an injury Look at the skeins workloads last year I think this is what teams do they try to get you kind of on a long ramp and then bump it up and then go I think that's kind of what they're doing right now, Strider.

He could do his next start four innings in Atlanta, maybe five, if he was efficient, you know? Yeah, I haven't been making, have not made that clear as a plan. Yeah, I'm not admitting to be cleared from my end. I'm not saying that's what's gonna happen. I'm just saying it's possible. Yeah, it's possible.

Some other mailbag questions here. This is from Adile AOC. Hope I got that handle right. How many played appearances do you need to see to determine if a player's bat speed is up or down from the prior year in any meaningful way? I don't know that I've seen this study done for sure, but I do know that I personally have seen

that it becomes, like just bat speed itself becomes sticky pretty quickly and that the biggest corollary is, you know, arm speed, Velo. You know, you're just, it's just a projectile that you're moving fast. It's you know, there's, I guess health is a variable of course. And we'll see that with some of these changers. But, you know, I think that you're mostly trying to swing as hard as you can most. It's a lot like the fastball. So you might take something off the fastball sometimes, but then

generally, why do we know so much about the fastball with after 10 fastballs? Because you mostly are trying to throw each fastball the same. You mostly try to throw it hard, you know, in good locations. And so there's always an asterisk that not, bat speed alone does not mean everything for a hitter. You can be Joe Adele, you can be these other guys, but bat speed is generally good

and generally something you want. And generally, you know, somebody you try to replicate on each swing. And you kind of want to swing the same each time too, because if you were swinging wildly differently, you would have wildly different contact points, right? Yeah, your timing would be problematic, I think, if you were changing up too much with the swing speed.

But we've talked about A swings and B swings, and you could be in a small sample. Couldn't you end up in a situation where you'd happen to just take a few more B swings than A swings, and because it's a small sample, it makes it look like you lost something? Yeah, but I agree with that on the level of like sort of five to 10.

So, you know, like Mike Jastremski and Christopher Morel here, they've lost. For Morel, it doesn't bother him as much anyway because his bat speed was so high that maybe he's doing the thing that Colton Clouser did last year when he just used a heavy bat so he'd actually be able to slower

because there is a trade-off between bat speed and whiffs. Colton Clouser did last year when he just used a heavy bat so he'd actually be a little slower because There is a trade-off between bat speed and whiffs and Morrell obviously whiffs a lot So maybe he's actually swinging a little bit softer on purpose to make more contact It could end up being a good thing for him and 73 is still good You can see from the color coding on these that 73 is still good. So I'm not that worried about morale I might be more worried about Mike Shastreppsky basically going from a round-league average to like really poor, but it is seven swings. I don't know why there's 42 swings for Pro Farmer. He's already taken 42 swings. That includes spring or

something? These maybe these include spring. You could follow a lot of balls. Like yeah something seems a little high on that, doesn't it? Yeah, it really does. And because it's only for a few of them, like we have Devers for 41 swings, I kind of feel like. Those are the guys that played four games, I think. I mean, the Padres Brave series was a four gamer, so I guess that's possible.

Cubs on the other side, B-Crow Armstrong's got 41 swings. And they're pretty prolific swingers, the guys that have 40. That's another point here, is that like, hey, the guys that are on these leaderboards, some of them already have 40 swings. Doesn't that seem like a pretty good sample? Like I think a lot of the kind of count-based stuff

goes away after 40 swings. You're in a lot of different counts. You're just swinging a lot of different pitches. It's not all, oh, I just swung in breaking balls, or oh, I just swung in fast balls. By the time you get to 40, you swung in a bunch of that. That's why I like per pitch and per swing numbers better, because they get to bigger sample faster.

So not as worried about your strength, game morale, but I am worried that Colt Keith is down. I don't like that. He's at 67 and when he was at 71, that's 67 is, is minus bat speed. Trey Turner being on here with an injury, kind of dovetails with each other. William Thomas being down, being into a new ballpark, and being down from plus to average

is a little bit concerning for me. Devers being down two miles an hour of bat speed, with all these other things that are going on around him, that bothers me. Who am I excited about? I mean, I'm excited that Pete Pro Armstrong suddenly has elite bat speed. I mean, that is really fun. It is maybe a little problematic given his propensity to swing and miss.

So he may strike out 30% of the time, but have the home, the power we want. Brendan Rodgers being up at 75, he has not played well, but he does seem like he's got the job. They're not, I don't think they're taking him out of the job just yet. I don't think they have a great other option. I don't think Dubon is a regular starter. So I think Brendan Rodgers is gonna at least get another

week of starting and if he swings 75 and he does this for a week, I bet you he hit a home run this week. So I'm interested in the Brendan Rodgers. I picked him up in a couple places, even as bad as the start was. Esauk Parade is going to Houston and finally having average bat speed is just hilarious to me.

Well, and you could think, you could tell yourself a story about Esauk Parade, as you could say, after going to a non-trop park for half his games at the second half of the season, right, going to Wrigley and having that power fade, maybe there was a change. Maybe there was a conscious change to, conscious effort to get a little stronger or to change the swing in a way that will make him a more balanced and

more dangerous hitter. Again, maybe pure speculation on a small sample, but if it wasn't working for a half season and there was some uncertainty about where he was gonna end up, you know, there you go. You gotta make an adjustment. One thing I like about it, and you noticed this with the Pete Krohme comment, is that Parade is like, does make decent contact, right?

So if you give a guy a decent content and more bat speed, maybe you trade a couple points of strikeout rate, but in his case, that doesn't put you in trouble, you know, and you get more power for it. I like that. Nolan Arnotta, we knew he's gonna be on here, this whole point of running these things, you know, and I really like that, going from below average to 73,

hitting the homers that he did. He's a guy who makes, he's the guy I want to have more bat speed, you know, and I think to some extent Xander Bogarts is that and we knew that last year he did bat speed training, but I think he had the unfortunate injury and maybe one thing we're learning about bat speed training is you kind of have to keep it up over the course of the season. So I don't know if Xander will keep it up over the course of the season, but if he likes the results he has early in the season and he's been playing pretty well, I think that he will continue with this bat speed training,

continue to keep it up there at 73.8. Maybe we could see a decent power here from Xander. He's always going to give you the batting average. He's always going to steal like, I think, 10 bases. So that's exciting. I'm most excited about all these guys. There's just an asterisk on Peterstrom, but Nolan Arnotta being up, Bryce Harper being up just means, Hey, he's, he's healthy.

He's good. It's looks good. You know, Mason Wynn being up. I think that's gotta be good. He makes contact. If he could make more powerful contact, great. Anthony Volpe is up. Cody Bellinger is up.

I think this is mostly good news. I, I can't look at somebody on this list and other than Pete Cronenstrom and say, Oh, this is going to be a bad for that. Even for Pete Cronenstrom, you're going to strike out. Maybe just be a guy who strikes out and hits a bunch of dingers and, and steals a bunch of bases. Right. I do think it's, it's a net positive for sure for, for PCA, the way he's already kind of

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And now my parents are reliable. A little too reliable. Voila. Your groceries delivered. Just like that. I would wonder, with someone like Mason Wynn, seeing that he was on the list of bat speed risers, I know he had a bad spring and it's been a quiet opening series for him. He's got a 45% K- rate in his first 11 played appearances.

So it's just been kind of a tough month for him. Just looking at spring training and the start of the regular season all mushed together. Do you think there's any sort of learning curve or a short term downside even to increasing your bat speed and then just having to kind of get that timing back again. Like it's sure it's good to have a faster bat, but you're doing something different that you maybe did very similarly for a long time. One of the tricks is that like your bat moves faster and so theoretically you can give yourself more time.

And so theoretically you could actually watch the ball longer because your bat is going to get there faster. And one that you can see from Mason Wynn's number so far is that his pull percentage is down and his hard hit is down and his O swing is down. He's chasing less. So I think he's trying to figure out like how long can I watch this?

And it becomes a question of timing. It's obviously gonna offset your timing. I think this is gonna be good for him in the long run, and I think this is a great time to buy him. Yeah, I mean, I think there's a path for him eventually to be high up in the order. He has talked about wanting to steal more bases. It's a question of how many more?

It's nice to say you wanna steal 30 or 35 or 40, and I think Ben Clemens pointed this out on Friday, maybe before the pod, but Mason Wynn has not always had dominant, the high stolen base totals and the miners, but he has been very efficient everywhere he's been. That's what caught my eye with Mason Wynn is like, hey, he could probably run a lot more than he did last year. And sometimes when you see guys getting that first

extended run as an everyday player, I know he debuted in 2023, but 2024 was that first year where Mason Wynn was the guy. You don't want to make mistakes. Yeah you're just kind of getting used to being an everyday big leaguer. I think sometimes it's that second full year where you'll see guys take off a bit more in line with how efficient and good they were at stealing bases in the minors. They don't really have options.

They're not they're not sending him down. They don't have like a Michael Siani for Victor Scott thing where they can just be like, Oh, we'll just have this other guy who's credible, has a higher floor and let Mason work on the stuff in the miners. I think they're just like, no, you're our shortstop. Yeah, go. And I think he probably feels that way. So I bet you he's not too he's not too worried in himself right now. Great question, though, and definitely something we're looking at early just trying to find reasons to believe.

Maybe in players that are having a slow start. I feel like the risers that are not making good on it yet are the early pickups that you want to make if someone cuts bait too quickly or players you're going to float a trade off for as we get a little bit further into this season. Let's get to our usual late Monday topic, the where the money went. Looking back at the weekend pickups from our leagues, a lot of closers on the move because there were a few unsettled bullpen situations, you know, and I looked through and saw just from the Rotowire Online Championship at the NFBC, it's a 12-team league so a lot of people

in our group of listeners play in formats close to this, probably had to think about Luke Jackson and Jose Alvarado and Emilio Pagan and maybe even Justin Slayton and Seth Halverson. When you look at that group and you think about each team's bullpen situation right now, is there anybody out of that Jackson Alvarado, Pagan, Slayton, Halverson group that you think will end up being a great pickup?

Because sometimes you spend the big money on a closer They wobble they lose the job or you find out in the next couple of days. No, it was actually still a committee all along They don't have sole possession of the job Do you see anybody that kind of pops for you as someone that can run away with a bullpen out of that group? No No, that's great. That's great. If you didn't bid on them. just like, no, thanks. I don't think I even did like make good bids. Like what's the point of me putting like $20 on Luke Jackson right now out of a thousand? Like it's not going to get me the guy. So I didn't even have him in my trees. I think that they're unsettled in ways that I want to pick other almost as leading these places and saves and the other I've been very clear on for for me in Cincinnati is is Graham Ashcraft

Tony Santillan we were talking about this he spring was down and he's still down a little bit but he's only down like a half tick so if you really wanted me to guess who it is like right now because we don't even really know who the closer is right now, I think it's Tony Santillan. Because he pitched the eighth in a game that Ian Jabeau blew that they were winning. So Tony Santillan gets the next chance for me there.

Did Pagan actually get a save? Yeah, Pagan had the save on Saturday. But it was also kind of an up and down game that was kind of weird? No, it was pretty straightforward. Lidola went six to earn five hits. Santillan pitched the seventh, Ashcraft pitched the eighth, Pagan pitched the ninth. It was one where they kind of had everybody available and it was straight through. I just don't believe in Pagan.

This guy has a Palmer problem and he pinches in Cincinnati. I don't believe in him. Luke Jackson throws so many sliders and I was was just thinking, if I was the manager, I would never give the closer job to somebody who threw 55% or 50% sliders. I just wouldn't do it. I just feel like everybody would just 50-50 them. And I don't think that sliders,

I think that sliders can be hittable if you anticipate them. Who were the other ones? Slayton, we talked about Slayton on the Friday show. That was a tie game that he got the, Aroldis Chapman pitched in a tie game in the eighth, at 2-2, they got three runs in the ninth, and then Slayton came in and took the ninth

as a result of that. So it's a little bit of an ordered thing. Right, you could consider that closer usage for Chapman. Right, I think in that case you're like, Chapman's the closer and Slayton might be the next guy up. That's still where I sit on that after the whole weekend played out. So I wasn't going out of my way to pick up Slayton unless my league also rewards holds because it might just be a long wait before that next save opportunity actually comes along.

I did see the Seth Helverson outing that was also on Saturday. Airplanes are a great place to watch baseball if the Wi-Fi is actually working and it actually worked okay for me on that flight so I was pretty fortunate. But Seth Halverson is nasty. We talked about this before like the Rockies have developed a few interesting arms. I would like Seth Halverson if you pitch for somewhere else. If you can pitch him away from home if you can be careful with them. I don't, everybody in Coors, I just worry about.

But could a reliever have a dominant season in Coors? Yeah, probably. I mean, you're just asking to be good for one inning. Yeah, we've had good enough relievers. Brian Fuentes, Houston Street, you know, just, they've happened over the years. It's not impossible, but it always makes you feel an extra bit nervous. Halverson went for 22 in my main event where Luke Jackson went for 330. So,

Halverson's much more my price tag. Yeah, you could sneak him through relatively cheap and yeah, it was more than a three out save. He finished the eighth and then pitched the ninth against the Rays in that game on Saturday. I did Pigan I think was the most added player in main events this weekend, but 155 for the max Yeah, he only went for 35 in our yeah your concerns about the home run problems that he's had really for his whole career Everybody has that on top of not trusting Tito to just lean on one guy the early stuff numbers on Pagan look good He's also like 94 now. That's actually below average VELO for reliever. I don't know.

None of them really got my money. But I did get Santillan in our league the winners from last year. Ah, the champions league. On the Pan-Tracks. So now I have year. Oh, the Champions League, yes. So now I have Santian, Porter Hodge, and Anthony Bender all on my bench hoping to get a second closer out of them somehow, and I think that Bender might be the closer

right now in Miami. Nobody knows. Nobody knows, but I think it's Bender. I was frantically watching every game other than Pirates Marlins, so the best thing was the Saturday matinee flight. Frantically not watching that game. That's what I was doing.

If you were the person sitting next to me, that's exactly what I was doing, was just tapping the iPad quickly, jumping around from game to game. Once big innings stopped, I was like, oh no, I gotta change the channel myself, that's terrible. Big innings is really good, just in terms in terms of hey let's just check in and everything without having to shuffle around I love it I'm becoming even more

of a fan of it than I already was but yeah this closer batch to me wasn't anything special I think that was reflected in some of the lighter prices that we saw even in more competitive leagues. How about the starting pitchers though there were actually a decent number of two start pitchers because the way the schedule is this week, Ben Brown, Chris Paddock, Cade Povich. Like all the interesting like fours and fives basically. You know?

Those guys all got picked up and then the guys that made starts like Zach Littell and Griffin Canning for 12 teamers especially where they weren't drafted, they were kind of popular pickups this weekend. We're typically cheap in our main event and we but we always make moves. So we are kind of just like constantly hitting the bottom of the FAP market every week. So we got Emerson Hancock, who's got a two start week this week and he only cost us five bucks, you know, that's our energy. But in like another team where I needed pitching a little bit more,

I went with Chris Paddock who has a decent to start. And I think that there was also a Shane Smith citing. It's ugly out there in 15th, they're on him, but Oh, oh, oh oh we didn't talk about one guy Camila Deval Yeah, he was actually I think more for 15 teamers because the guys that actually got yeah He did have one so what more the circus that is Walker go like two in a row or something Yeah, I gotta look at them Walker went to in a row Well the thing is is Walker anything less than a share?

The thing about Walker is, I don't think that people want their closer to be a sinker guy. I mean, Jason Foley was pretty good last year, and he didn't even make the opening day roster this year. That was surprising. Think of how many guys that are our sinker guys. There's like Ben Joyce, but he throws like 102, you know, you're giving up the platoon advantage with your closer. I don't think that people want that. People want Ryan Walker for three righties in a row.

Yeah. Do you think there's maybe the possibility there's just a little something extra going on though? Since he only pitched once. It is a little strange, but his stuff seems like it's maybe down. We've got a hundred stuff plus on Ryan Walker, which is not what we had last year. And let's see if the VELO is down. The VELO is only down a little bit, but maybe somehow the movement is down or something.

Definitely. Oh, and he's got back tightness. That's what I was thinking is because he got the save on opening day, and he didn't pitch the rest of the weekend. So I figured there was an injury or something that maybe was the only reason I wanted to bring up Devaugh real quickly, though, is because he's on the level of South South Haversam where I'm like, that is a good pitcher.

Right? Stuff's really good. And eventually it's going to pay off. It's just the tricky thing is if you're not in a league that rewards hold, waiting on a pitcher like that is really hard to do. How long, how much you're going to spend on him and how much you're going to wait on him and yeah, yeah. Like in our league, the fact that three bench spots in line are tied up into relievers, I'm like, I'm pretty hope, I'm hoping pretty fast that one of them becomes the closer otherwise I don't know how long I can handle this.

I just had a pretty healthy team so far. Soon as someone gets injured that I want to keep around, I'm going to have to drop one of those guys. I do think that just to finish off that, and I know we're already on the next segment, but I think that Presley looks bad. I think that Presley looks bad. The stuff is down. He didn't.

He blew his save. He didn't. He blew his save. He was blowing saves in spring. I am out, out, out on Brian Presley. You might be right to be out on him at this point, because it does seem like they could be quick to make a change, given how important every win is going to be for this Cubs team, as they can try and take over that division.

Oh, Will Warren has a two-star week this week, too. And he got it. He ended up getting rostered in a lot of leagues because of the timing of when we knew he was in the rotation. But yeah, there were some 12s I think where he was scooped up. Yeah, in my, in bar for my 15 in the team league,

he was a $65 acquisition for somebody, so. All right, so who do you think makes the biggest impact out of like Will Warren, Griffin Canning, Zach Littell, or any of the other two-star guys that might've got picked up. Do you see any long-term value in that group? I think maybe Griffin Canning. Canning, I think, will at least be someone

you could play at home all year. He also had like a 38% strikeout rate this spring, which is insane, I don't get it. You don't just like add a sinker, you're like, now I strike everybody out, but like I do wanna give them a little extra credit for the park. He pitches in so Canning was somebody I wish I had put more money on Yeah, what's interesting is that he had the sinker this spring and I don't think he threw any of them in this first start

At least that's savant by their classifications right now. They don't have them That's the sinkers he threw his slider 52% of the time in his first start against the Astros this weekend. Oh, that's an old trick. Oh my god, that's crazy They just pulled the like Boston Red Sox on him Yeah, we'll see it We'll see if that's just a game plan thing or if that's actually something they're gonna keep doing with him I thought Zach Littell looked pretty good I mean the Rockies lineup is still one that you can pick on, especially outside of Coors, but even in Coors with certain pitchers. But Zach Lattell is one of those guys

that he's gonna get more run in that raise rotation than we expected, right? That early McClanahan injury opened the door. It seems like somebody's always hurt out of that group. And Lattell's just a little bit underrated. I liked the way he was working up in the zone with everything pretty consistently, just all around like a nice first start 7k's

To not expecting that every time out, but I think this guy's just a tick underrated. The results were uneven He only went four innings, but the Smiths Schaver Split finger was pretty nasty. He also threw a Cutter which was that I knew I'd seen it might be a slider, depending on the classification system you're looking at. But I always wanted him to have a slider. I always thought he could have a slider because he spun the curveball so well. So now you've got a guy who's a four pitch guy with a 94 nine mile an hour fastball.

I think Smith Schafer will have some good days this year. So I don't know where you need to pick him up or where he's even available But if he is available, I think I would pick him up. I thought this was also kind of a bad week for bats There wasn't a whole lot that changed in a few days playing time wise So I didn't feel compelled to go aggressively after anybody but some names that were frequently added Kyle Manzardo was the most added hitter in the aforementioned Rota wire online Championship again, that's a 12-team league. The range was from $1 to $285 saw Otto Lopez Spencer Torkelson

Will your a bre you I mean a lot of roster spackle a's max Muncie I think was the most added hitter in the main event and the range was $1 to $57. So it really wasn't a big weekend of space event. And the range was one dollar to $57. So it really wasn't a big weekend of spending. Guess which side of the range I was on on that one. I'm gonna guess you were close to one. Yeah. Yeah.

I think he's just the guy who's gonna play while Galov is hurt and we'll have to see what happens after that. I don't know that there's something about him that I'm like, oh, you need to pick this guy up because of X or Y, but he's getting playing time. And we're about to see how that park is going to play. It may not be representative of how the park will play the rest of the year,

because it'll be kind of cold and rainy and I'm on my way there. So I gotta go drive two hours. Yay. Yeah, we got to let you know go TCR MCHK DC. I don't know how to pronounce that. Had a question about Ryan Bliss in Seattle. Bliss did start three or four games at second base. One of those was against the lefty. So the fact that Dylan Moore is not just straight up platooning with them gives Bliss a little bit of deep league appeal, but it's a speed first sort of profile.

He had eight in all three of those games. I think you have to be at least in a 15 team league if you're looking at Ryan Bliss right now, but he's a player to keep an eye on just because it's a very soft part of that Seattle depth chart. There is an opportunity to turn that into an extended look before the prospects come up behind him. The Victor Robles of the infield. Yeah, sure. We can call him that, I think. Join our Discord if you haven't already. You can do that with the link in the show description. You can find Eno on Blue Sky, enoseris.bscot. sky social mdvr.b sky social thanks to our producer Brian Smith for putting this

Episode together that's gonna do it for this episode of rates and barrels. We're back with you on Tuesday. Thanks for listening a Bat is a bat when we say it's a bat