Rates & Barrels - Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Gets a 14-Year, $500M Deal with the Blue Jays

Episode Date: April 7, 2025

Eno and DVR discuss the massive deal for Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and the Blue Jays -- 14 years, $500 million -- as extension season rolls further into April. They also wonder if the Jays will be able to supplement the face of their franchise effectively and snap a postseason losing streak that stretches back to 2016. Please participate in our listener survey! theathletic.com/athletic/survey25 (Three lucky entries will receive £/$100 worth of Amazon vouchers!) Rundown 4:47 Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Gets 14-Year, $500M Deal w/Blue Jays 10:31 What Else Will the Jays Do to Supplement the Roster Around Vlad? 17:56 Chase Dollander's Debut; Zac Veen Promoted by Rockies 26:52 Blake Snell to the IL with Shoulder Swelling 30:28 Ketel Marte to the IL; Tim Tawa Promoted over Jordan Lawlar 32:40 Other News & Notes: Nestor Cortes Jr., Sean Murphy & Iván Herrera 45:08 Handling Slow Starts in the NFBC (and Elsewhere) 51:05 Where the Money Went: Kyren Paris, Jake Mangum, 12-Team Starting Pitcher Targets & the Closer Carousel Follow Eno on Bluesky: @enosarris.bsky.social Follow DVR on Bluesky: @dvr.bsky.social e-mail: [e-mail] Join our Discord: https://discord.gg/FyBa9f3wFe Subscribe to The Athletic: theathletic.com/ratesandbarrels Hosts: Derek VanRiper & Eno Sarris Executive Producer: Derek VanRiper Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Hey I'm Robert Vinlow and I'm from New York Times Games and I'm here talking to people about Wordle and the Wordle Archive. Do you all play Wordle? I play it every day. Alright I have something exciting to show you. It's the Wordle Archive. What? Okay that's awesome. So now you can play every Wordle that has ever existed. There's like a thousand puzzles. Wordle Archive. Oh cool. Now you can do yesterday's Wordle if you missed it. Yeah. New York Times game subscribers can now access the entire Wordle archive. Find out more at nytimes.com slash games. Welcome to Rates and Barrels, it is Monday, April 7th.

Derek Van Riper, Enos Saris here with you on this episode. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. gets a 14-year, $500 million deal with the Blue Jays. We will dig into the implications of that. The Rockies have been busy promoting prospects. We saw Chase Dahlander make his big league debut on Sunday. Zach Veen is up. We'll dig into that. We got some injury news because it's been a few days. There are always players injured. Fortunately a few guys came back from their injuries as well. We have some mailbag questions and as we do every

Monday we'll take a look back at where the money went. Talk about some of the players that have popped up on rosters over the last 48 hours or so. You know, before we get started, how was your weekend? It was good. My mother became an American citizen. Nice. And what did I do? I, nothing so grand. I saw a concert with one of our listeners, Peter, who came to our live show and went to see a Fish cover band. So that was the thing I did.

And then I went to a Little League game on Friday night and I went to see Rintaro Sasaki at Stanford on Saturday and then capped it off with a Seattle Mariners Giants game on Sunday. 20 second scouting report on Sasaki. Oh, he Chonky. Okay. He's a big boy. I think they have him listed at six foot zero two 75.

Ooh. Okay. Yeah. Not the greatest hands at first base either. He lets them, he let a pickoff throw go by. He hit an opposite field single and struck out. I think that's the, those are the bad time. I remember.

Um, so I didn't get to see him Homer. They lost. Uh, but, uh, you know, the Georgia tech center fielder, Georgia tech center fielder. I think his name is Burris. Now we're doing a prospect of the week. I love it. Yes.

Parker Broges was on that team and I'm just like, I'm pretty sure that's a Broges of the, of the baseball Broges. I don't think there's a lot of Brogeses otherwise. There's at least one that came before. But Burris, I'm looking for his first name here, but here it is, Drew Burris. He was pretty impressive. He had a Homer.

He had a little bit of that Harrison Bader body where he's compact and turned fast and looked pretty athletic out there. So I was impressed by Drew Burris. Fire hydrant, spark plug. What do you call that body type? That's what by Drew Briss. Fire hydrant spark plug. What do you call that body type? That's what I call it, the fire hydrant. I don't look at the fire hydrant and then think like,

I wish I was shaped more like that. No, but I think it's underrated in baseball. I mean, we fall in love with the James Woods' and the LED LeCruz's because obviously you're like, wow, look at that. But they have more zone to cover. You know, they have more arms to get, to get in the right places, you know, more arms and legs, the more compact guys just turn like lightning and they just, they have a smaller zone and they, they can really impact that zone.

When it works, man, when it works, the old school scouting thing was like, you know, you want these tall guys, they'll grow into it. You know, you know, like you want, you want leavers, you know, and, uh, and I'm, I'm suggesting that sometimes the spark plugs and the fire, the fire hydrants get overlooked. Sometimes they also have a chip on their shoulder, which is like, can be so useful in baseball. Yeah, that's fair. get overlooked. Sometimes they also have a chip on their shoulder, which is like, can be so useful in baseball. Yeah, that's fair. Alex Bregman has a chip on his shoulder, dude. It's driven him to be the most he could be for the size that he is. All right. I'm on board with your reasoning, but still not the first choice, I think.

Even if I'm not all the way old school, I don't think that's the James Woods out there next to Burest, you're like, I think I if I'm not all the way old school, I don't think that's James Woods out there next to Burress you're like I think I like that guy. Yeah Yeah, I think that's that's the way I go. I'm still gonna see that ceiling Let's talk about Vladimir Guerrero jr. This is not a surprising development because it's been in the works for a while now It's 14 years, it's 500 million. It's the terms that Vlad Jr. basically said he wanted all along, and we talked about this when it was first

reported a few weeks ago as something he was seeking. The comps for Vlad as a hitter are kind of in that Miguel Cabrera range, right? It's the guy that got to the big leagues really young, has phenomenal bat speed, hits for average, hits for a ton of power, and should be a cornerstone player for most of a deal this long.

No deal this long ends great. That's fine. You're talking about the first half or first two thirds of the deal being the time where you have one of the best players in the game and they've had them up to this point as well. So it's nothing new in terms of what was out there, but why was this so important for the Jays to get done? I think we talked a little bit about, you know,

prospective free agents and how they ended up second place on a lot of guys like Otani and, um, you know, if believe the rumors, at least, you know, but that on some level, recruiting requires a star in house. You know, I think it's easier for the Padres to sign the next free agents after they had Manny Machado there. after they had Manny Machado there. You've proven that you will go to the table and pay the price to keep premier free agents in the past. You've developed this guy. So he speaks well of your hitter development, your scouting.

Like he can speak well of your organization in lots of different ways in the person of one, in one person, you know what I mean? Like he speaks, he says that like, we scouted this guy, we signed this guy, organization in lots of different ways in the person of one in one person. You know what I mean? Like he speaks, he says that like we scouted this guy, we signed this guy, we developed this guy, and then we gave him the big contract. And those are all the things that a player wants to, wants to think that their organization does.

So when they sign, so makes it easier maybe for them to sign the next guy. Then in terms of like what it actually is dollar wise, there's a kind of a little bit of a fascinating thing here. So his projections for next year line up between on the low end, there's a, I think that's a 3.9 war projection for him from one system. And then on the high end, you've got oopsie in the bat with a 5.3 win projection. Of course that's a big deal because if you think about how this is, you know, I've done this aging that's up on the screen right now and this is not precise. It has nothing to do with his body or the way he hits. This is just a real boilerplate. Hey, give him

the projection he's got right now for the next three years because he hasn't turned 30 yet. And then just age him a half win after that. I did the median one and if you do the median one he ends up with you know 33.6 war. He's a replacement or released player between the ages of 38 and 40. I could have put some minuses there and it would it would look worse but you know that he's a 34 war player over the next few years over the next 14 14 years, and he, they end up paying $14.9 million per win, which is excessive right now. We think it's somewhere around $11 million a win. But if you take the high end projection, and you, and you can see that in front of you, it's starts with the 5.3 and that has bat speed and all his batted ball exit.

Believe VELO is in it. If you, if you appraise him that way and age him out that way, you get 46.7, you get a full 13 more wins and you're paying $11 million per win. Which is where we are right now in the market. So potential to be an overpay. Yes. But you can see what projections they're using. Uh, you know, if they, if he hits those numbers, then he ends up, um, being a really important player also if he hits those numbers and he gives them 46.7 million, uh, 46.7 wins over the next few years.

He will be a borderline hall of famer, um, because he will have 63, 64 wins. His father was a hall of famer, I believe. Right? Yeah. But I got voted in with 55 wins. Yeah, he's in. Yeah. Yeah.

So 55 wins. So he would have more wins than his father and, and have a possible Hall of Fame case. So, um, lock up a potential future Hall of Famer and potentially overpay $3 million per win. You know, if it doesn't work out, I think it makes sense. So a few other things I want to throw into the conversation. You look at the average annual value of Vlad's deal versus the Soto deal.

Ken Rosenthal had that up top in his story at the Athletic. 35.7 million per year for Vlad Jr., 51 million a year for Juan Soto. By that metric, you're like, okay, that seems like a pretty good deal on an annual basis. Tim Britton has been writing a lot about extensions for the Athletic. He adjusted previous deals for inflation and found that the 2014 contract Miguel Cabrera had signed with the Tigers was worth the present day equivalent of approximately $40 million per year. So it's less than that.

And I think the other thing I keep thinking about is the Jays had this core with Vlad and Bo and they spent in free agency on Gospin, they traded for Bureaus and gave them an extension, they got George Springer in free agency and I know they fell short on Otani but they're trying, they're doing all the things a team should be doing to upgrade the roster and win while they can and this is still a team that hasn't won a playoff game since 2016. So it leads me to some bigger questions of great that you locked up your franchise player. I'm happy for them happy for Vlad What are they going to do to win with him now? What's going to change? I mean, here's a question for you. Where the Jays rank in rest of season team

Van Graaf's war projections as it stands right now 12th their eighth they should be a playoff team this year, right? I mean, being in the AL East is tough. It's part of the uphill battle that each of those teams has to deal with. The Yankees, Red Sox, Rays being the Rays, Orioles being good right now, tough spot to be. They're eighth there. Where do they rank in Keith Law's 2025 organizational prospect rankings? Bottom half.

Yeah, they're definitely bottom half. They're 24th. So their window is open right now and they've done a lot to maximize the roster, right? Andres Jimenez, that's not nothing as far as an acquisition from the winter. Like they keep trying to push chips in. They added Jeff Hoffman to bolster the back end of the bullpen. And for Jimenez, like, you know, it's pretty cool that they, he's obviously, you can see it on his batting stance changes on Savantvant that he's obviously changed his batting stance.

And he's changed his angle at the plate and maybe tapping into some power that he hadn't had before or that he hadn't had since 2022 or whatever. So if they did correctly identify a change that they could make with him and have, you know, pushed it, that's what I think is the key for them is if you don't have a good farm system, then how about producing useful major leaguers uh, that are at the top end of their outcomes and, you know, making Alan Rodin into a starting regular center fielder, a starting regular outfielder, maybe not one that's.

Top of the league, but one that gives you two, three war and like, you know, gives you depth to this roster. So there has been, you know, there have been some success stories for them that they've sort of moved on from. And Spencer Horowitz was a pretty good outcome for the type of prospect he was. Came up to the major leagues, held his own and was a good enough hitter to turn him into Andre Samanis. So like that's what they need to do. They need to sort of turn Will Wagner into a possible everyday third baseman.

They need Alan Rodin to be a possible everyday corner outfielder. They need a Jake Bloss who they got in the deal for you say, Kikuchi last year. And they need to turn him into at least a fourth or fifth starter. You know, uh, they need to have either Yari Rodriguez or somebody in the bullpen They need to have either Yario Rodriguez or somebody in the bullpen step up and, uh, become, you know, a core bullpen piece for them. So that's the work I think that, that stands in front of them, at least in the short term, in the long term, you pair that with, uh, you know, getting free agents and you say, Hey, look, look how good we are at finding

depth in our own organization. And we want you to be a star that comes joins us while you know that they're going to you were going to produce depth guys that they can play around you. Yeah, I think they have an interesting group of guys that could get better. And of the players you listed, obviously, they're not all going to hit. Like, it's just not going to work. You're not going to be right about all those players. Some of them are going to get hurt, whatever. There's going to be a lot of different outcomes in that group.

But that's going to be the thing that I think separates the Jays from just barely making the playoffs or just barely missing it. I think they're going to be really close. I think they've done enough to put the team in that spot. And it's the guys from the margins that might actually make the big difference this year and next year, just as they're currently constructed. Maybe they'll push more chips in.

Maybe they'll add payroll at the deadline, and they'll be one of the teams willing to take on salary. But you and I have talked about this already. There's not a ton that we expect to see out there, because a lot of the teams that are playing for the future have already been picked pretty clean. So it might not be easy to get top end talent in season. Sandy Alcantara is the name that's going to come up

for everybody. Every team that's looking for pitching is going to be linked to him. There might be other guys that come available in the next three and a half months, but that's the other angle here is like, will this make them more aggressive in season? Because we talked about the Jays in the winter saying,

are they going to keep the window open? Are they going to try and push chips? And now that we know with keeping Vlad, the answer is going to be pushing chips in now. I think the war projection tells you all you need to know. They should be trying to win right now. Yeah. Yeah. I think teams like Blue Jays are rooting for some kind of win now team to just have a terrible season. You know, they're just rooting for the brave season to turn into a train wreck so that the Braves sell off all the short-term pieces, you know, uh, they're, they're rooting against the D backs or against the Mariners. I don't know what they, what they want exactly because the Mariners are kind

of built for the long-term, but you know, there's always like maybe a Jorge Polanco piece, like a Jorge Polanco piece. If he's pitching, if he's playing well, but the Mariners aren't playing that well, he could be an easy guy to add to your third base mix, you know, because he wouldn't cost that much. But, you know, I think that's what that's what they're looking for. And then they're looking for a little bit of good fortune on their own. It's just I think they've they've had equal amounts of good

and bad fortune over the last few years. Like any time that you do go on, I run deep in October, there's a smidge of luck, can I say, I mean, it's like, I, it's always like, like an insult to whatever team won the world series to be like, they, they got lucky. I mean, I, I hate to point out, but they out, but even the Dodgers themselves weren't even sure who might pitch the next game if there was a next game. So, you know, as dominant as they looked and as dominant as they are, you know, you have

to think of the high end outcomes for the Blue Jays if you want to kind of see where this run can go. And that has to do with Gossman's new VELO being something that sticks and he gets back on track and he is a kind of a high-end 2-3 or a back-end ace that Scherzer kind of gets his health together and joins him at the top. I think it is a little bit light in the rotation. In terms of like studs it definitely has you know major league starters in it. But if there was a team that maybe should trade for San Diego Contra, it might be the

Blue Jays. Yeah. And then the question is with that current system, do they have the young depth necessary to pull that trade off, to put together the most enticing package for a Marlins team that is going into what looks like a pretty deep rebuild? But congrats to the Blue Jays for getting their guy and congrats to Vlad Jr. for getting the deal that he wanted. Let's talk about the Rockies.

That just feels weird to say. We don't say it very often, but Chase Dolander debuted on Sunday. It is Dolander too. I, that name messes with my head. We have a place here called Cafe Hollander, which is spelled like Dolander But with an H it's a place you get beer and burgers and stuff. It's chase Dolander He's got great stuff And I feel like I've said this a few times about Rockies pitchers in the last few months where you look and say this this could

Be better than Rockies pitching that we're used to. Dolander is not a secret, right? He was their first round pick out of Tennessee. But the debut, you know, it's, it was a reminder that yes, he's still going to have to deal with Coors and made a couple of mistakes, got crushed for those, but still had six Ks and five innings. And the stuff numbers came out pretty good, right? I mean, they could actually attract well too well above average pitchers. The cutter and the curve ball were both big time pitches for,

for chase Doe lander in that debut. Yeah. And you know what, what I just have to come back to those like, if we're fancy, at least I can't, I can't get that into a Colorado pitcher. I just, I don't know. It's a very, very simple way of looking at it, but, um, you know, that's, that's something, another thing I want to point out is that the way that the arm angle saga continues, the way that arm angle runs, it's a day light.

So there may be an update to chase Dolelanders numbers tomorrow. What we do in the short term is, um, for veterans, we take an average of their previous arm angles and then put that. And then, um, what we'll do for debuts is, uh, impute their arm angle, uh, using a model that we have. So, uh, that's what we're doing for debuts, but on track, we're impute their arm angle using a model that we have. So that's what we're doing for debuts, but on Tuesday, check it and see what Chase Doe Lander stuff is. Right now it's 106.

I'd be interested to see if it changes much by Tuesday, but you can see high end Velo, good shape on his cutter and curve, and that allows him to stay out of any possible platoon issues. I think that having a really good cutter is good for Colorado as well. I think that's probably one of the pitches that's least affected by the air up there. And having VELO helps you kind of VELO your way through altitude induced shape issues. So he could have some success. I just don't know. And having V lo helps you kind of V lo your way through altitude induced shape issues. So he could have some success. I just, I feel like, you know, he pitched really well in his debut and he has a 70 RA.

Again, a couple of homers will do that no matter what park you play in. And that's just the nature of the game. But look at those projections are all for like fives. I mean, I know it's it's a rookie. Maybe the projections aren't that useful, but it's just it's Coors, man. Yeah. And it's hard to have a picture on your team for fantasy purposes that you want to stream on the road because then you lose something on the road in terms of strike zone.

Like that's also a problem that's been proven to. So I'm excited for the Rockies. I'm excited for Rockies fans. I hope it works out. But it's still, for me, it's more of a deep league, like NL only, 15 plus team leagues only sort of play. I think 10, 12 team leagues. You're going to be on the roster, off the roster,

despite excellent VLO, despite two above average pitches, even if those do come down of it. I imagine they're still going to be above average with the rerun with that arm angle eventually in the equation. The other move the Rockies made they sent Jordan back down to triple A and they have promoted Zach Vien. I feel like Vien's been one of those prospects that initially had a lot of dynasty league hype because he was a tooled up guy that was going to play his games and Coors and then

some time passed some struggles in the minors happened. You know, the usual didn't do it right away. I also missed a lot of time with injury in 2023. I think only played 46 games at AA that year. Now it seems like there's some hype again because we saw a lot of speed last year. We saw some in game power. We saw some pretty good underlying hard hit numbers. And he still was young for the level.

I mean, he got the triple A as a 22-year-old last year. So what is your expectation for Zach Vien? Because I think he ended up being one of the more intriguing players to pick up in a lot of redraft leagues on Sunday night. Yeah, I did not take part. Maybe I'll regret it. There's a combination here of swinging strike rate in the minor leagues and this, this prospects note from Fangrass, which I just feels,

it just seems ominous to me. Vines lefty swing is still vulnerable to inner half velocity. And he remains in a liminal prospect space more than he is a slam dunk big league star, so he's vulnerable to inner half velocity of which there'll be more in the big leagues. And his sort of purported decrease in strikeout rate where he got it down to 16% this year was not accompanied with a great decrease in swinging strike rate. So he still had a 12 and a half percent swing strike rate. So I expect him to strike out 27, 28% of the time in the big leagues, even more than his

projected strikeout rate. That's going to put a lot of pressure on his legs and a lot of pressure on Coors to inflate his Bavip. It may reduce his OBP. And I'm not sure that the slugging numbers are born of quality contact. And I'm worried that some of those slugging numbers are born of his legs, because I see a one Oh five nine max CV in a, in a full season last year, this year one Oh eight. Those are still poor numbers. So I I'm worried that it'll be medium to low power,

high strikeout rate, high, like high speed. It's a really weird combo. And I don't think it produces stars in the big leagues that often. Do you think we're still looking at someone that at least at home is worth streaming in like 15 team leagues initially though, because I think most Rockies hitters in that situation, especially big side platoon at minimum type players, can tick that box.

Yeah. And especially if you if you're build, if you're if your team needs speed, it's worth picking him up. Yeah. See how it rolls in the early days for Zach Veeam. I do think the swing and miss concerns are a bit greater than what you might see based on what he was doing in his handful of games, a triple A this year. I do like the fact that he's walked pretty much everywhere he's been, so maybe the O.B.P. is good

enough that keeps him in the lineup even when he's swinging and missing a lot. He uses that speed to offer up at least some categorical juice for us right from the jump. Bummed to see they were so quick to send Jordan Beck back down though. Come on, what are you doing, Rockies? I mean, I shouldn't even have to ask. You got Nick Martini out here getting played appearances. Like how is that going to help you in the long run? Nick Martini is 34 years old. Yeah, I don't. I mean, I, I'm rostering Nick Martini in one place.

That was rejects cause I needed, I needed a bat, but, uh, I'm not, I'm not excited about it. I think they, they also, the Nolan Jones thing is, is weird for me. Do you think that they, do you think they made their decision to get, to get rid of him, to, to trade him away for a piece they haven't even started that often, like they went and got Tyler Freeman and Tyler Freeman is, is like a platoon utility player for them. I thought they did it to make room for Beck coming off of a good spring.

And maybe they did it to make room for me. But then this organization has never been one you could easily trust to just put the guys out there that you'd expect them to put out there when they're struggling as a team, like to say, hey, like, let's use it as a year. Like use it as a growth year. And doesn't it feel like they made the choice on Jones too quickly, especially given what you're just saying, especially given this is a growth year, like let Jones play. Right. Jones, I mean, Jones was hurt last year. Did they convince themselves that they're more competitive than they are every year?

That's that's the kind of vibes I get. That's that's the kind of vibes I get. I don't know. And I know Jordan Beck, you know, was thirty four point eight percent strikeout rate through nine games, but it's nine games. What are you trying to do? Maybe you're telling yourself, well, he's only spent thirty nine games at Triple A. So let's just send them back down there. I can maybe that's that's the reason why they did it. But I don't know, man.

I just the PCL is such a tough place to learn because it's so hitter friendly. Why not have him try to solve big league pitching instead of playing a 34 year old? Yeah, I think I agree with that. The frustration continues, even though we have exciting players being added to the depth chart in Colorado. Some Dodgers news, Blake Snell to the IL with shoulder swelling. That's kind of a new one for Blake Snell. I don't really recall any shoulder issues in the past, but we talked about it at the time they signed him.

The concern is not that Snell on a per-start basis isn't able to pitch deep enough into games. It's on an annual basis. He often misses time with a variety of different ailments. So it looks like because Bobby Miller pitched Sunday at AAA, Landon Knack is probably going to get a spot start or two in the absence of Snell. We'll see how long Snell's out. Tony Gonsolin just started pitching in games again recently. So eventually maybe this is Gonsolin's spot

if this turns into an extended absence. But this is more or less what the Dodgers sort of took on risk-wise, right? This is just the way they're built and something they're going to accept. And their gamble is that for 26 starts in the regular season and time in October, Blake Snell just is himself. Yeah. season and time in October, Blake Snell just is himself. Yeah, the it's unfortunate.

And just a reminder that I think that one 30 is around the cap for any parts of the, uh, the Dodgers rotation. I think that's, they're going to play these games all year, but I did reach out to Fabian Ardaya, our intrepid Dodgers reporter for his opinion on what was happening in the very short term because I think that is pretty interesting. And it, he thinks it might be Justin Robleski on Tuesday and then Landon Nack on Wednesday because Landon Nack's normal start day comes on Wednesday. I don't know what that means with the veterans

in the rotation, but there's a lot of guys in that rotation that are used to the extra rest day. So I could see them just giving everybody an extra rest day and then making a decision Uh, about Robleski and NAC afterwards, I, I had a fairly big bet on NAC. So I bought NAC in four or five different leagues for around 20 bucks on average out of a thousand. And I think if the schedule lines up well, um, he's going to have some decent matchups in the short term. And I think at least till Goncalo comes up, which, you know, if he's just starting now, it will still take him like two ish weeks, at least to stretch out to normal.

He, it's not like he was throwing five inning starts and then got hurt. You know, he was in the middle of stretching out. So I would say that his next outing is going to be one or two, two innings, and he's still have to have to stretch out to five. So that gives Landon Nack like I think two, three weeks. And then there could be another injury. So this is how Landon Nack gets to like eighty five innings this year in the big leagues.

It's so hard to roster in leagues that don't have deep benches. But yeah, pick them up when he's available. use him for the time that he's in there. The two matchups for Robleski and NAC, if they do make two turns and they do stay with the six man rotation, they have an off day coming up on Thursday, it'd be the Nationals on the road this week for both of them and then the Rockies at home next week for both of them. So those are two pretty nice starts. Yeah.

So I think you want to take advantage of that where you can. Cattell Marte went on the IL with a hamstring strain. Little surprise, it wasn't Jordan Lawler. It was Tim Tawa who was called up by the Diamondbacks. Did you pick up Tim Tawa anywhere this weekend? I did not. I was just happy that I didn't have many

Cattell Marte's shares because I've been worried about that hamstring forever. I mean, he's that hamstring was what limited him in other seasons and just didn't last year for some reason. Yeah. Yeah. It's, uh, it's Tim Tawa.

Like has that 12 to 14% swing strike rate that he's got paired with a 20% strikeout rate in the minors that I just, one of those things is going to be true in the major leagues and not the other. And I just assume it'll be, um, less contact in the major leagues. And he comes with the same sort of Zach Vienish issues of, you know, 107, 108 max CB. He does have nicer hard hit numbers than Zach Vien. So maybe he can consistently hit better than 95, even if he can't hit 110 in terms of exit. We'll be those.

And so maybe he's going to be a high ish babbitt guy that can make more out of a strikeout rate than other people would. a strikeout rate than other people would. But I don't think it comes with plus speed. And the 31 homers he hit at AAA and AA last year combined just seems like such an outlier for me that I don't believe he has that kind of power. Yeah, he's an 11th rounder out of Stanford, drafted in 2021, spent basically 2 and 1 half years at AA. Amarillo and Reno are two of the most hitter friendly environments in all of minor league

baseball. And that's where he's been. So you see great numbers that jump off the page, take them with the necessary contextual grain of salt. I was just surprised it wasn't Lawler, but maybe they figured they can mix and match a little bit, maybe play Garrett Hampson on occasion and They want to do that until they feel Lawler's got a spot that he either calls his own or plays enough spots Well defensively where they're comfortable using him in more of a super utility role

So other news and notes here waiting on second opinion Nestor Cortez went on the aisle with a flexor strain. Brewer's pitching depth taking a lot of lumps early on. Yeah, we'll see. Paired with Nester's late year issues last year, this is not, and his VELO, that's all a pretty bad picture. I think he's dropable in most leagues. But very surprising that he pitched so well.

His final start out after such a disappointing showing at Yankee Stadium for his Brewers debut. The Brewers actually made a move. They acquired Quinn Priester from the Red Sox via trade. You have Free Rodriguez, a competitive round A pick, and a player to be named later, Orcash, all going to the Red Sox here. So not nothing as far as what they gave up. I think Rodriguez, depending on where you look,

kind of a back of the top 10 prospect in the organization, at least top 15, I think, by most lists. He was at high A to start the season, so several years away from contributing. But second time in less than a year that Quinn Priesters on the move, you know, and second time an organization that we like from a pitching perspective has made it a point

to bring him in. So what do you think we're going to get from Priester once we see him back in the big leagues, maybe as early as this week? I mean, the needs are very clear right now in Milwaukee. Yeah, I wonder what they can do. I mean, what Boston did when they got Quinn Priester from the Pirates is the, the normal Boston treatment where he just cut his fastball usage and replaced it with sliders and changeups. And, you know, he also found some way to start throwing his

sinker harder in Boston, even though his four seam didn't get harder. So I don't know if they've found some tweaks in his arsenal that'll, that'll port over if he's 94 plus on the sinker as he has been in AAA this year. Um, and he's more sinker in AAA this year. He was much more sinker ahead. So he's transitioning from someone who, you know, kind of through some force aimers to a true sinker slider guy. Um, I don't know, they've had success with that profile in Milwaukee and they've

found ways to dance around a poor fastball. I think they have good plans. I just don't think he's that great of a pitcher. So I would be careful in outings. I think he is a streamer level tech pitcher. I see for what it's worth, I see more potential for another Tobias Myers sort of magical outcome. Let's call it magical. I mean, very positive outcome. I see that more with Priesters than I do with Chad Patrick, who's done a nice job filling in so far. Chad Patrick just doesn't

throw breaking stuff. It's pretty much all fastballs. I even looked at what he was doing at AAA last year when he had a lot of success in Nashville and it's, it's the four seamer. It's the two seamer. It's the cutter and very, very occasionally, I think he drops a slider and has a change, but they're bottom of the usage barrel pitches. That's crazy. I mean, he's a, he's a little bit of that Bido, uh, Luis LRT's, uh, tree here.

Yeah. Maybe even more extreme. Yeah. Cause at least Bido and them throw their breaking ball. Well, I guess if, if, if this cutter is a breaking ball type cutter, which I think it could be at 87 miles an hour, then he's basically two fastballs in a slider. Yeah. I guess, I guess it really depends on how you want to classify that cutter, but it's a, it's a strange

mix. We've talked about that being a thing that a handful of guys are trying right now. And Chad Patrick is added to the list in Milwaukee. Yeah, I would rather have Priester than Patrick. The results at AAA at times have looked good for Priester too. That gives me a little bit of confidence. Good swing strike rates, pretty good walk rates. I don't know. I think they can make something out of him given the current state of that rotation. Sean Murphy is back from the IL.

You may have thought Drake Baldwin was going to go down, but they decided to keep Baldwin as the backup. Chadwick Trump has been DF8, so just a heads up, if you're trying to get early season playing time out of Baldwin, it will go down. Didn't do a lot in his first run, but it's just hard to adjust the big league pitching. Not a huge surprise that he didn't hit the ground running right away. I did see Ivan Herrera to the IL with knee inflammation. That's a bummer because he was scorching to start the season. A guy that pretty immediately played himself into single catcher league consideration where if you didn't take one early, you're always looking to the wire for that next best option.

I think Pahez is a decent pickup if you're stuck there, but if Murphy's out there too, I just switch over to Murphy I think I think you know in one catcher type leagues you can just bank that if you don't have an IELTS situation that you can put your into then just leap over to Murphy and catch someone who's on the healthier side. As cynical as that might feel like who's healthy now I'm sort of streaming catches at this point, but in leagues where you have to hold on to him, um, you know, where you have an IELTS tent, please do. I think he, I believe these gains for Ivan Herrera. I think he's, he's a pretty good player. So I, it sucks to see him go down. Yeah.

I think there's a lot to like in that profile. Good hard contact numbers, low K rates last year. And it seemed like he was the favorite to take the bulk of the job. Fast start certainly was not hurting his cause and his bid for more time. And by the way, those, the things that you were just saying are all true for Drake Baldwin. So I don't know if there's a window of opportunity to buy Drake Baldwin now that Murphy's back, but I really do like the little things that he did when he came up.

Like he's hit the ball hard and he's made contact and there's very few catchers that can tell you like, Oh yeah, he'll hit the ball, you know, 112 miles. Like that's like William Contreras stuff. Hit the ball 112 miles an hour with like a sub 20% strikeout rate. Like you have William Contreras, I upside. So if there's like a little window of opportunity to buy him because his owners like ah How long is it gonna take for him to get there? I would say I might I might do it Yeah, be a good target for keeper dynasty auto-new all sorts of situations like that where you can be a little more patient With a player like Drake Baldwin Thomas the JC is back up for the Cardinals

I think he's kind of underrated. I just look at him as a player that does a little bit of everything Never really had bad strikeout rates, not as patient as some of the other hitters we've talked about today, guys that have been stuck in the minors, but also younger for the level than nearly all of them. What do you think his role is on this Cardinals team? Do you think he can actually work out an everyday role given what they're trying to do. Check the corresponding move. He's coming up for Nolan Gorman, who's in a part-time role. I think he's a part-timer.

So you think he's just sharing as a righty, you know, small side platoon guy with Donovan, something along those lines. Yeah, 100%. This is by the way, a team that, uh, top of the top of the league teams are hoping tanks. Cause I think Brendan Donovan, even Sunny Gray, even with the reduced VELO and Ryan Helsley, Gray, even with the reduced Vilo and Ryan Helsley, um, are three pieces that they would part with at the trade deadline and would be well sought after. I have no problem with this being a rebuilding year for the Cardinals. I have no complaints with this idea. Sounds good to me. They've already had some wins.

I mean, I think by the end of the season, Mason Wynn will be fine. And Victor Scott looks like he's breaking out and Mars new bar is having a great season. And Jordan Walker, let's, let's not forget the Jordan Walker. If he's available in your 10 teamers, I think he's a pickup. Um, right now the, the K rate looks good. He's hit a ball 116.5, which he's never done in the major leagues before. So he's, he's hitting the ball.

He's stinging the ball right now. Yes. It's too much on the ground, but there are other guys like this. Like if he turns into like a Yandy Diaz type, like it'll still be great. He'll still a few more bases and he'll have outfield eligibility and Yandy Diaz is good. So, um, you know, I wouldn't be too worried about the ground ball right where it is right now. Yeah, that's that's a fair point.

I keep looking at this team, though, this Cardinals team. And I'm like, it's got to it's got to consolidate the depth chart has to get thinner at some point, even if they're not rebuilding this year. They have to make some decisions and lean on certain guys more. Right. About Gorman and Segeisi. So, I mean, to some point that's, that's the impetus to, to try and play Segeisi as much as possible is to know, you know, who do we prioritize

going forward as a Segeisi or Gorman, you know, cause that's why it'd be easier if they just traded Donovan, you know, to just give both of them a bunch of playing time in major leagues and see what see what shakes out. Right. And I don't think trading Donovan is waving the white flag and saying, we're not going to try and play the middle and find our way into a wild card either. I think you can do that and still hang around like that. That doesn't seem like a big deal. And Donovan has real life trade value.

So you have that going for you as well. Wilson Contreras looks so lost at the plate and it's amazing. He's just making every decision incorrectly. And I think I don't care. If you can buy on Wilson Contreras, I can't circle some number and be like, oh, this is why you should buy Wilson Contreras necessarily. Right. Cause the numbers all look bad. Like he's, he's not doing anything right right now, but he has such a long track record and they are going to keep running him out there cause of the contract.

And I just think that the numbers right now are irrelevant for him. Like I've just not even looking at them. I'm like, can I get Wilson Contreras? Then yes, I will trade for him. Like I'm just not even looking at them. I'm like, can I get Wilson Contreras? Then yes, I will trade for him. In a weird way, I kind of want the Cubs to just trade back for him. Even though that doesn't help me in my rooting interests, just it never felt right that Wilson Contreras

went to St. Louis. And then there was the whole saga about him not being a catcher anymore. Then he was a catcher. Then he got hurt catching last year. And I wonder, I wonder if there's something going on just with the move out from behind the plate, much like we talked about with Jed Lowry last week and Rafael Devers.

If you play a position your whole career, you just play, like you play in your, and you, you put a lot of your, your worth as a player into being a catcher and all of a sudden you're not a catcher anymore, you're probably putting more pressure on yourself as a hitter and you're falling into some habits that you ordinarily wouldn't, right? So I think being too quick to dismiss the difference between playing the field and not playing the field, the position switch, I'm trying to be more open-minded about changing positions like, oh yeah, they're just playing in a different position. No big deal.

I think it actually might be a big deal. And especially get catching versus not catching. That seems like a pretty big difference for how engaged you are, how connected you are into what's happening on that day. Like first base is still engaged and it's not like being out in the outfield and you know, dawdling about in the outfield. As I've seen in little league, definitely you lose some players out there, but you know, I even had a conversation with my little league coach of my, of my younger

son, um, that he's kind of more like the, the scatter brain kind of ADHD. Like we were like, yeah, let's put them behind the plate and keep them engaged. You know, like, and like, see, see how, what that does for him in terms of, you know, how, how intensely focused he is on the game, because you have to be as the catcher, the next pitch is coming right at you. So it is definitely a level of engagement above being at first base. Is he good game caller? It's all fastballs at this point. He's nine years old.

You can still choose location. Yeah, but they can't hit it. So he still asks for it. Target wherever he wants. It doesn't necessarily mean it's going there. A question related to Wilson Contreras, at least somewhat. This is a common question right now, right? It's been, what, 10 days, 11 days since the season started. This one came from the Moro brothers, Mark Moro, in our Discord.

How do you handle a team of slow starters in the NFBC? And I'll broaden Mark's question like anywhere, even beyond the NFBC. This particular team has Jordan, Lindor, Paredes, Pete Alonso. Thankfully Alonso hit three homers this week. Before that, it was looking Grimm, Bogarts, PCA, and Dylan Cruz, all hitting under 220. We're last in homers on average currently, but third overall due to good pitching, fairing okay in the other hitting categories. We're going to try and wait it out, but we know we're falling further and further behind each day. So is it as simple as just saying, wait it out?

Just if you have a core like that, they're going to hit, they're going to run into a series of good matchups, or they're going to end up in a hitter friendly environment, or they're going to end up some more warm. And things are going to turn around in a series or two. I think I misunderstood that question. I thought it was a question about having too many players from one real life team on, on your league and, and in your league and, and suffering through, you know, maybe cold April games or, you know, uh, a buzzsaw of like, you know,

going into LA or something like that, you know, so I, I misunderstood that if that, if it's just a collection of different bats, the thing that sucks is I know that he's talking about a format in NFPC that doesn't have trades, so there's not even the opportunity. I would say that some of you out there should consider a selling low, which sounds terrible, but there, there are going to be players that won't get it going. And I don't know that I have the divining rod. We are always here trying to figure out where people are going, but you know, you can look at the things that we look at, like barrel rates and, and, and

swing strike rates, uh, and, um, maybe some chase and swing rates. Those are the kinds of things that you can look at in small samples and be like, Oh, this guy's in a totally different position. Uh, he does, he's not something's wrong here, you know? And I would, I would sometimes look at like sprint speeds and look at his sprint speeds down a lot, cause then maybe there's some ailment that he's not reporting, you know? Um, and you're in a position where if you can make a

trade, consider maybe selling low on somebody that you just don't like and, and seeing what you can get out of there. But otherwise, I mean, what is there to do except for the work, you know, it's just, if you can't make trades, then, uh, I guess the equivalent of for selling low on a situation like this is Identifying somebody that you think is actually dropable Right drop or benchable even for a partial week or two, right? You look at the schedule and say, okay You know maybe maybe my next best option in the outfield has an extra game over PCA or cruise or

Maybe they're not giving up the platoon advantage as much like you could do that or Cruz or maybe they're not giving up the platoon advantages much. Like you could do that. It's not it depends on who the player is. Depends on like if it's actually an extra game or not, like those contextual things all matter. I don't think they'd necessarily make a massive difference. You could easily just time it wrong. Oh, I put them on the bench and they had their their series. They brought everything back to reality.

That can happen, too. And we're not even far enough into the season where process stats tell us a whole lot. Do you have confidence in anything right now as far as like, I don't know, chase rate or major declines in bat speed or sprint speed? Are we even far enough in to take that and act on it? No. Like there's a story of MaxTV.

MaxTV can tell you something really good in a week if it's good, but if it's not good, it doesn't actually tell you anything. That's because he could hit a ball one a way tomorrow. You know, like, so you can't, it is actually negative. The negative is harder than the positive. It's like, if somebody comes out, like a chase, don't land or comes out and he averages 97, 98 on the fastball. Like already that's good.

You know, it doesn't mean he is good, but it's already really good sign. Um, but you know, the converse that a veteran like sunny gray has lost below. It is probably bad. Uh, but sometimes they just take a little bit longer to get going. That story of Luis Castillo is that every year he starts out slow with Vilo and then sort of gains it over the course of the year. So, um, with those particular names, I think maybe I would just try to find a way to bench Dylan Cruz for a little bit.

And, you know, uh, conversely, Pete Cromston is a lefty. I think I would just try to. You know, avoid lefties with him. Right. So that's about as much as you can do right now. Just be patient. It's a hard thing to hear right now. I understand it. Another thing might be if you're starting pitches and doing okay, and your

offenses are hard, like to start to reimagine your bench and like, Hey, you know what? I have two closers and I have this extra spot that I've been using to look for a third closer. Maybe right now is not the time to look for a third closer. I have two closers. I just go with those two closers. I'm going to stay out of all this mix where I'm trying to, you know, find the next closer and use that to find the next power bat and start like, start having a spot on your bench. That's just for upside in batting where you're just like, you, you, you pick up Heston Kirstad, even though he's not playing all the time, you know, and you, and you pay a little bit

extra and you get a Kirsten Hirst, Hirst, Hirst and Kirstad for 35 bucks, which is a little bit too much than you wanted. And then you're not necessarily going to play him all the time, but you put them on there in case he sort of finds his way into everyday playing time, which is a possibility. So, making like re-allocating your resources towards hitting is I guess the best answer I have. Yeah, speculating a little bit differently on the bench, also an actionable step there. Good luck to the Morrill brothers as you try to weather that slow start in the NFBC. Let's get to where the money went. I'm gonna frame this a little bit differently.

We'll mention some of the names. Heston Kirstad was among them as one of the more added players in 12 team leagues this weekend because of the opportunity he'll have, at least on the big side of a platoon for the Orioles. But you look at Kirstad, Kiron Paris, Heraldo Perdomo, Johnny DeLuca, Sal Freilich, Cabrion Hayes, Ben Rice and Wilmer Flores. They were among the most added hitters in 12 team leagues. It wasn't a group that I was particularly excited about this week, so I was generally pretty quiet in most of my leagues. Jake Mangum added kind of in all leagues

as a guy that really popped up last week, and we'll get to him in just a minute. But what do you think of Kyron Parris? Do you think there's actually a path for him to carve out a larger role given the injuries there in Anaheim and just the way that they've tried to become this sort of like last chance organization for a lot of veterans, like will they actually move the veterans aside

and just let Kyron Paris play? I think there's a large chance of that, considering also that Luis Ranjifo, the guy in front of him is oft injured and also has some position flexibility and can move somewhere else to make room for Kyron Paris. So that I liked. I liked that there's a story here for the increased power output. There's a story written by Sam Blum about how Kyron Paris went to Teacher Man. And Teacher Man is the hitting coach, uh, behind Aaron judge's

success or maybe who has helped augment Aaron judges, uh, obvious innate talent. Yeah. I mean, right. Like that's a good brand to be associated with the Aaron judge brand. Yeah. But it's also, you know, it's a very specific, it's a very specific hitting move that teacher man kind of espouses that I don't think is good for everyone. And I've definitely talked to players that have moved on from him.

I found that they didn't learn much from him. However, I think it is a specific move that sometimes matches a specific need for a player and then can take them to another level i think carry carpenter is a teacher man guy. And carry carpenter had a similar kind of you know offensive power based explosion and you know kyron paris with a two hundred iso is a completely different player than the one that you see projected. ISO is a completely different player than the one that you see projected. Yeah. If he's manages to be above average in power, now you're, you have a guy who can maybe even hit for a slightly better average, because when you hit the ball harder, you get average out of it too.

So here's a guy that could maybe hit two 32 40, um, with a 200 ISO. You're talking about, you know, uh, 20 plus homers at least, and he's always stolen bases. So, Hey, would you like a two 40, 20, 20 second baseman? A lot of people would. And I feel badly that I couldn't necessarily, uh, pull the trigger on it because all the power numbers are in tiny samples. And he's had such problems with making contact as well as hitting for power that I just didn't want to pay a lot of money to possibly get a guy who strikes out 30%

of the time and has a 100 ISO, which is the median outcome for Kyron Parris. Which makes him a drop if that's the outcome, but getting that possibility of more makes a lot of sense. And you're right about Renhifo. If they could decide that Renhifo is their regular third baseman, play Kyren Paris at second, and then just use Moncada as a backup, or Moncada would be on the IL because he's often hurt himself, they can still coexist even after Zack Nettles back, right? Like there's a lot of moving parts on this roster. So I'm intrigued as well. I didn't realize that he went to teacher man. I think teacher man should change his name,

but that's just my opinion. I think it's a funny name for a hitting coach. You can call yourself anything, you know, like it's wide open, wide open dance card. Hitting coach man. That's worse. You don't have to stay within the mega man villains universe for nomenclature.

You can expand beyond that. The other bat that was on the movie, talked about him briefly on Friday, Jake Mangum for the Rays. Can he be a steady late bloomer playing more because of the Josh Lowe injury? It seems like the Rays are one of those teams that they've always got a handful of guys

they're looking at, Curtis Meade, Jonathan Aranda, Mangum right now in the outfield. And there's enough sogginess on the depth chart where if you perform, you can have a larger role. So was it just a great story and a great first week or do you actually see some skills that might be overlooked because of Mangum's age? I like his combination of contact rate and the fact that he hits from both sides of the plate. And I think that that will get him into the lineup fairly often considering the way that they build lineups. Um, and there's an outside chance he outplays DeLuca, uh, but I'm not sure he has centerfield defense in him.

That's not necessarily how they played him. And DeLuca's playing pretty decently himself. So the way I say it is worthwhile while Josh Lowe was hurt. Yeah, I think Lowe and maybe eventually the return of Richie Palacacios either one of those guys just makes the crowd a little tougher Cameron Meisner could be bumped also though too. So it's Good enough for now I think is the right way to sum it up and I think you summed it up very well for Jake Mangum Some fringy guys for pitching in 12 teamers. That's where I saw the more interesting names Jordan Hicks

Mitchell Parker Hayden Wazneski. We love Wazneski. We've talked about him throughout the entire winter. Did I say earlier that Mitch Spence has a good schedule? It's Mitchell Parker that has a good schedule. Yeah, I think, I think you may have said Spence earlier, but. Sorry about that. Mitchell Parker has a good schedule.

Uh, Jordan, I think you have them. So the way I have it is Jordan Hicks is the guy I want in terms of talent. And I think I would start, I would have them on my team most of the year and maybe not start them away in LA or whatever, or in Colorado, but start them 75% of the time and feel pretty good about it. The VLO is up. He worked on his body to hopefully retain the VLO longer. Um, plus when he drops the VLO, um, you know, you're going to, uh, you're

going to be able to see that pretty, pretty far out in front. So I think Hicks is the easiest home right here. And the guy I'd definitely pick up. Mitchell Parker is the guy I'd pick up if I'm a streaming guy and I'm just want him for the next few outcomes. I don't think he has high-end upside, uh, with the type of stuff that he has and the type of pedigree and the type of history. I think he's just a useful guy in the meantime.

Was Netsky somewhere in between. It's, you know, maybe has more ceiling than Mitchell Parker has a, I think he has Seattle today or tomorrow. Um, and I like that. Uh, but I can can't i haven't. I still like him but he still has the same flaws as will warren which is you know what are you doing against lefties is it. Is this a starters package relievers package. But the good news is he's striking guys out, Wes Nesky is. The VELO has been steady at 94.5.

And his projections, like an oopsie projection for a 4.09 ERA, it's not bad. Yeah, I think he's in for the two-step for me, even in Shadow Leagues at Seattle and then home against the Angels this week. Probably back on my bench, depending on my alternatives at home against the Padres for next week's start. But that's the way I'd play it right now with Hayden Wesneski if you're trying to look a little bit ahead. And with Parker, it's matchups on the road against the Marlins and Pirates for the next two.

So yeah, that was a big part of what drew people to him this weekend. The closers, we talked a little bit about last week as well. Mostly Anthony Bender, Dennis Santana, and Tommy Canely. We mentioned last week we prefer Bender to Santana. If you're looking at those two, Canely was not a part of our conversation. So in a league where all three were available, who was your choice? I like Will Vest in Detroit, actually.

So I actually picked up some really cheap shares of Will Vest. I got some $2 Will Vests, you know, out of a thousand. And I feel pretty good about that. I picked Bender. Uh, I put a medium bid on Bender in all of my leagues and end up winning, wanting him once or twice, uh, for like 40, 50 bucks. Uh, I got him in the TGFBI for $43, uh, runner up got paid 30, uh, 33 and Chris paddock was my dropper.

Just felt you moved on. I'm back in the never paddocks. I tried to save you, but, uh, but I also, like I said earlier, I took, uh, uh, a bunch of $20 bets on Landon Nack. And I can't tell you right now that for sure he's starting. But if he is starting this week, I think he's may be able to pitch himself into a role, at least in the short term.

I know there are situations when, especially in high stakes leagues, if you don't have enough closers, you see anybody out there getting saves and you say, this is my shot, it's early in the year, if I'm right, I get 15, 20, 25 saves and two, three, $400 out of a thousand in fab ends up being worth it. Ideally, that's not the way I would want to play. Those are very modestly skilled relievers that are not firmly connected to those jobs right now. If you're throwing 40 or 50 other bids at those guys, great, not a problem, not a big deal. You're not going to miss that nearly as much as a third of your budget or 40%

of your budget. What I think is better is what you did with NAC. I think taking the speculative chances, where it might be two or three starts, if he gets the opportunity, it may be zero if somehow there's someone else they wanna get a look at instead. Most likely you're getting at least one spot start though. I think you can throw 2% bids out there on guys that may or may not even be useful this week,

and it's okay. That's as much like reckless speculation as I would really like to do. I don't wanna pay 300 for the reliever that was a dollar last week if you'd just thrown the dart in the bullpen, that was a mess. I think that's something I've really tried

to get away from over the years, the longer I played. So for example, in my main event, Anthony Bender went for $237. from over the years, the longer I played. So for example, in my main event, uh, Anthony Bender went for $237. Now I like Anthony Bender, but I, I think we had, I don't know what we had. We had like 40 or $50 down from Anthony Bender. Um.

You have two closers already, right? Uh, sort of, puck, Puck and Hoffman. All right. So you have one in a fraction. But, so we're, we're, but, but we have enough that we're not desperate. So we're just, we're just trying to play the middle, see if we get lucky.

I got Bender on a $40 bed somewhere else. That's fine. I want that. That's good. I don't want to spend $237 on Bender. I don't like if Dennis Santana hadn't like didn't did what he did Sunday. I fit, did he blow it?

Yeah, he blew it or he pitched early. He pitched in the seventh and somebody else blew it bro. Bo rookie blew it. He pitched the eighth or something. So Santana didn't close in a game Sunday and that affected his numbers. But before that, I'd already had basically, you know, like $50 on Santana and $40 on Bender. Like that's where I wanted to play. And, you know, Santana would have gone for $200 if he'd closed that game, but they were not, they're not, they don't have the skills of lights out closers, neither of them. So what I ended up doing instead in the main event, another way of saying it too,

is AJ Smith Schafer went for $185, you know, out of, out of, uh, out of a thousand and I can take six or seven $20 bet, you know, bets on, I can take six other pitchers for that $185. Give me six bites of the apple versus your one bite with a Jason Schafer. I'm taking it. In the past, we have gone to big beds. We did a big bid on Taj Bradley because the stuff plus was there. The minor league results was there and the Taj Bradley, I think has had a, at the time, a better, uh,

collective, like set of stats that spoke well for him. Then AJ Smith's Robert does, you know, and we didn't, it didn't do what we didn't do well with that. So I don't know if I got burned or if we, you know, we just much rather live in the twenties. So I, I picked up Tony's Santian. We picked up Tony's Santian for three bucks

and we'll vest for two bucks. Yeah. I mean, there's a very good chance that one of those guys emerges with a save or two. In the next week, I know Alexis Diaz is coming back from a rehab assignment. I still have my doubts that they're actually going to make him the closer again. And even if they do, I don't get the sense that he has nearly as much job security as he's had in the past. Yeah. And, and we'll vest, uh, has some of the best stuff in that, in that Tiger's pen.

And Conley is kind of, I mean, I know Luke Jackson is succeeding right now, so it's not the best example, but like, you know, he has that same thing where Conley will throw change up after change up after change up, you know, and I'm just not sure that a manager wants to sit closer out there that might throw 10 straight changeups. I think that's a little bit much for your innards. sure that a manager wants to set a closer out there that might throw 10 straight changeups. I think that's a little bit much for your innards. I still want to get to the point where we get a look at Matt Manning as a reliever. I know they sent him down to Toledo.

He's still stretched out as a starter, but that to me is the other longer term. You know, if you're And Graham Ashcraft in the, in the Cincy pen for me, and now at least Graham Ashcraft is in the Cincy pen and he. And now at least Graham Ashcraft is in the Cincy pen. And he's pitching zeros. He's pitching zeros. Like I think he could still be the guy that ends with most saves in Cincinnati by the end of the year.

Still feels unsettled, even as we get more and more looks at what they have available in that Cincinnati bullpen. Be sure to join the discord. You can do that with the link in the show description find Eno on blue sky You know Sarah stop be sky dot social. I am DVR top be sky dot social That's gonna do it for this episode of rates and barrels. We're back with you on Tuesday, thanks for listening check the

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