Rates & Barrels - Who Do You Like In the AL Central?

Episode Date: May 7, 2024

Eno, DVR and Britt discuss Walker Buehler's return to the Dodgers' rotation before digging into the four contenders in the AL Central to assess each team's current strengths and weaknesses. Plus, they share a few players they underestimated in the past.  Rundown 0:51 Walker Buehler Returns to the Dodgers' Rotation 4:04 Forays Into Free Agency After Two Tommy John Surgeries 10:57 Buying the Guardians' Early Uptick in Offensive Output? 21:32 Weathering Early Injuries In Minnesota 26:15 If Nothing Else, The Royals Are Interesting Again 33:11 Can the Tigers Fix Their Struggling Hitters? 45:02 Players We Were Wrong About (Exceeded Expectations) Follow Eno on Twitter: @enosarris Follow DVR on Twitter: @DerekVanRiper Follow Britt on Twitter: @Britt_Ghroli e-mail: [e-mail] Join our Discord: https://discord.gg/FyBa9f3wFe Join us on Fridays at 1p ET/10a PT for our livestream episodes! Subscribe to The Athletic: theathletic.com/ratesandbarrels Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Welcome to Rates and Barrels. It is Tuesday, May 7th. Derek VanRyper, you know, Sarah Spricharoli here with you on this episode. We dig into the AL Central. At least the four teams that have a chance of going to we dig into the AL Central, at least the four teams that have a chance of going to the playoffs from the AL Central will save the White Sox conversation for later in the year, maybe after the trade deadline, we'll talk about how the early stages of their rebuild is going. So a lot of Guardians, Twins, Royals and Tigers talk today. We're

going to take a look at players we were wrong about. And by that, we're going to focus on players we saw a lot who exceeded our expectations. And by that, we're going to focus on players we saw a lot who exceeded our expectations. Got a few interesting names to share there. We're going to start today, though, with the return of Walker Bueller from his second Tommy John surgery. You know, you and I were talking about his rehab assignment and how the velocity wasn't where it was pre-surgery, but his first start back against the Marlins on Monday night, 94.3 to 97.6 on his four seam or a 95.9 mile per hour average. One thing that was mentioned was that the adrenaline is not necessarily there for some guys as they go through rehab starts.

And maybe there's also the aspect of just feeling good, knowing that game doesn't count and just trying to get through it, just kind of getting your work in almost like spring training in some ways. So how encouraged are you just by seeing those Velo numbers from Bueller in that first official start back? Pretty good. I mean, he got his fastball back to the same, actually better velocity than he had in 2022 as an average in that game. Ninety five nine, according to baseball, Savvant had the same amount of ride on the

fastball so a lot of the same shapes on his pitches one thing that was a little bit different was he threw the cutter more often than the fastball and that's part of a league wide trend to throwing the fastball less often but in this case I wonder if that makes it different as a hitter if you're going to sit cutter against him, or if you're going to sit forcing fastball against Walker Buehler, that's going to be a big difference in what type of picture is if you sit cutter, then everything bends. He's kind of a cutter, slider, curveball guy then. And then you're trying to avoid the foreseam. If you hit the foreseam, well, though, you're going to be sitting that. What other thing? What did you say the max was?

The max was ninety seven six. Wow. His average was ninety five nine. That is really close to his max. So that is stressful on the arm. I mean, I just have to say it like it's a lot of spin. It's really close to the max. These are, I just have to say it. It's a lot of spin. It's really close to the max. These are the things that we've seen associated with injury.

But, so here's my question. I'll throw this one to you first, Britt. Buhler gets a crack at free agency for the first time and maybe the only time he gets a shot at a long-term payday, right? So if he comes back and he continues to air it out all season and from early May to the end of the season into the playoffs, he looks anything like the Walker Bueller of old, that's a big payoff for him this winter because he becomes a very interesting starting pitcher target for a league desperate for quality starting pitching. Sure, it's still

going to come with the risks of two career Tommy John surgeries, but by proving that the stuff comes all the way back, that really changes a lot about that payday. It does though, I don't know as a front office person if you feel confident enough to give him this very long big payday, right? I think what you may look at is a deal that has a lower av and that has a lot of built in incentives to it because he is coming up to Tommy johns and I don't know if you guys done the legwork on what guys get paid that reach free agency with two Tommy johns it's got to be a pretty small group honestly. Because we are just getting into the era now where guys are having second Tommy Johns and coming back for a while. It was very much a coin flip.

You know the chances after your first Tommy John are okay. The chances that your second time John are a little bit lower for you to come back and be kind of that guy. If Walker Bueller is that guy again and he is pitching to November because the Dodgers are in the World Series. I'm a little concerned as a front office person about giving him this like five, six year deal that he probably is seeking because of all the wear and tear on his armor already. He blows again. You're you're pretty much done, right? Now you're talking about the third Tommy John territory.

Johnny Venters like there's a very few people in there. Does he become a reliever after that? Well, that's a really expensive reliever that you're now paying, right? So I think in the day and age of front offices being ultra cautious, you're going to see kind of that deal that has baked in incentives for hitting innings or... The Blake Snells thing where he's just going to have to do like two years, 50 million, you know, two years, 60 million and try again in two years. Yes, yes. Or if he doesn't feel comfortable with that, I do think there is an avenue where front offices would commit to something as long as he's pitching, right? So you bake in those incentives and you're like, all right, as long as he's pitching. But I do wonder, because there hasn't been nearly as much research done on these second TJs that we are now going through,

like how much time does this buy you now? Right? Because we know the longer you put off breaking, the better off you are. Now we're in- So the shorter time between Tommy Johns seems like a bad move, bad thing to you. Yes.

But on the flip side, you think like the things that they the surgery itself is getting better, you know, they're now doing like the brace plus the Tommy John and like, you know, I do think some aspects of rehab are getting better, but it is. But we're doing things that continue to make us broken. Like you said, he's pitching at his max. He's spinning the ball you know it's like kind of you know you break we fix you break we fix you will how many breaks can these guys take i think we are over the next ten years really gonna see. and probably have a lot more data for people to research and look at, you know, what that does. I think third Tommy Johns will become more common.

Yeah, which used to be, seconds used to be a death sentence. Right, and then third was like, oh, well, you're Jose Rio or Johnny Venters or Brandon Beachy or something. Like, it's a bad list, the third three Tommy Johns. So if he goes out and has a good year, like, you know, you guys are savvy guys. If you're a GM, are you able to look an owner in the face and say, we're going to spend a good chunk of our off season budget committing to five years of Walker Bueller? I would love to do the two and fifty, the two and sixty.

But yeah, five, I don't know. Yeah. You could even do the two and fifty or two and 60 in a way like Britt described, where you add incentives for innings pitch that could make it more like two and 70 or two and 80. And then he becomes nearly the highest paid pitcher in the game on an average annual. And then he still gets his 80 million in two years. He gets another contract after,

he still gets his 100 million, but you are not on the hook for three years of 30 million dollars a year when he's, you know, maybe not coming back. And I wonder if this sort of outcome ends up being the type of thing that slowly gets some pictures to reconsider their approach and how they train and their willingness to break down in the pursuit of Max below and spin.

Jordan Montgomery got the same deal as Blake Snow. Right. And it's still not a good deal. Worse even. I think it was worse. Yeah, it was like one year with a, well, it's basically a one year deal because there's an opt out, right? I mean, Jordan Montgomery doesn't throw his hards as close as Max, doesn't throw as hard, hasn't been as injured. But doesn't have as good stuff. Like look at the Jake DeGrom deal. They gave him $180 million. the Jake DeGrom deal. They gave him $180 million.

I wonder if the other corrective action for the players ends up being the next CBA really making that push to shorten up that path to free agency. Because if it takes you six years to get there. They've tried that every time I think. One of these times they're going to have to try it. They're not getting it without a cap. That's not going to be great either, but they kind of have it already because of the luxury tax thresholds.

I guess they got a little bit of it. What's the there's the rule about if you are top three in the rookie? Yeah, that's a handful of guys though. This is something these injuries affect the entire pool of pitchers. So speeding up that timeline to free agency. Fight for like super two for everyone. So eliminate super two, but basically make everybody super two. Yeah. Honestly, I think the easiest path is through MLB who wants starters to go

deeper, who wants the return of the starter. I think you have to change the rules. Like we've talked about before to value again, innings pitched. You'd rather have a guy go seven innings than a guy go five and strike out 10. Right? You need to get to a place where the game is valuing that again. And when the game values that again, front offices will value that again. And then players will say, oh, you know, they don't care how many guys I strike out.

But if I go seven innings, that's a bigger deal than going five. We'll see. We did have Dominique at an interesting reviewer, reader response to our last time when we talked about this, like the double hook for example, and he basically took the math of the extra inning and pointed out that, you know, what the DH's extra plate appearance, what that's worth may not actually be worth what the pitcher would give you in the extra inning. Like the math might still be, I'd rather have five and 10 and lose my DH. You know? So, uh, you know, I, that's true. And that's what, that's what I was saying.

It's like, you know, even with my best approach with the double hook and the active rosters and, you know, uh, trying to tell everybody, have a hundred, you know, throw 96 sit 96, have a hundred. Like even with that, I, I would be pessimistic that I would affect that much change. Yeah. That's the ongoing debate.

The big question in baseball that doesn't seem to have any sort of short term solution, but nice to see Walker Bueller back nonetheless. And the Dodgers rotation looking a little healthier now. You've got Glasnell, Yamamoto, Bueller, Paxton, Gavin Stone in their five right now. Bobby Miller threw a bullpen session Friday, according to Fabian Ardaya from the Athletics. So don't have a firm timetable for Miller, but it sounds like Miller maybe is weeks away from returning as opposed to months. That'd be a nice way for the Dodgers to possibly go back

to a six man rotation, even if it's temporary, as they try to keep everybody fresh for a post-season run. Let's move on to our main topic for today. Choosing your fighter in the AL Central, right? You've got 35 games. You've seen these four teams. You've seen the Guardians, the Tw twins, the Royals, the Tigers. You get a good sense of their strengths and their weaknesses.

I think at this point in the year, we'll start at the top of the division. Guardians have a two and a half game lead over the twins right now, entering play on Tuesday. As I start to look at what's different about Cleveland, it's really the pleasant surprise of their bats. They're tied for 10th in WRC Plus at 105. They're tied for 13th in homers with 36. Last year, they only hit 124 home runs all year.

They've got 36 entering play on May 7th. So the first question is just, how is this happening? I mean, they've had Stephen Kwan get into a little more power early on. Josh Naylor's been great. Jose Ramirez has been himself. Got a couple guys like Tyler Freeman and Will Brennan popping a few homers as well.

How sustainable is that? Because I can buy into Josh Naylor getting better. And I believe Jose Ramirez is elite, but I don't know if I trust guys like Freeman and Brennan and Kwan when healthy to be 15 to 20 homer guys kind of rounding out the back half of that lineup. Yeah, Quan just hit the IELY yesterday, right? So that that kind of hurts them a little bit.

I think they've shifted a little bit. I think they were one of those teams who saw the new rules coming and were obsessed with contact, and they did it at the expense of power and you saw that show up last year where organizationally they had no power and they lost so many games because they offensively couldn't get it going and I think what you're seeing this year is a little bit more of a marriage between the two. Like I don't think Cleveland's ever gonna be a team because power is expensive. That is going to probably lead the majors in the home runs, right?

Like you look at it from them being, like you said, 13th, them being in that middle ground is so important because we know their pitching is almost there, almost always there. And they're doing this without Shane Bieber, which I think is is remarkable. I think when Bieber went down, a lot of people kind of wrote them off, myself included, and you look up and they had that hot start. They are coming back down to earth here a little bit. I don't know, like you said, Derek, if this is going to be something they could sustain over the long haul,

but I think they are a better team this year than last year. I think they are a deeper team this year than last year. And I think they've done a really nice job recognizing the flaw in saying contact over everything. These new rules do emphasize contact, but you still need guys to hit the ball out of the ballpark.

You still need guys like Ramirez to go and slug because that is the quickest, most efficient way to win games. It's kind of wild. We talked a little bit about random one year changes in Park Factors. And last year, Cleveland had 17 homers in March and April. That was 29th in the big leagues. And this year they had, what was it? 29 homers in March and April. And that was 19th.

That's a pretty big difference. And then when you look at what's going on at home right now, the Guardians have 23 homers at home. That's the sixth most homers at home in baseball. And part of that just might be the fact that they lopped, you know, part of the stadium off. Now there's different wind patterns. We've known that Cleveland has always played as an offensive friendly park later in the season when the temperatures change.

So with this new change in the actual park and it playing so offensive friendly right now, I think WRC plus is broken for them. I think the park adjustment is broken for them. And I wonder what's going to happen in August when it's super hot and super muggy in Cleveland and it's the, the stadium is different. I wonder if we're going to see the same excellence from their pitching staff, because what you see Shane Beaver is out. Tanner Bybee is doing fine.

Gavin Williams had a setback in the minor leagues. Tristan McKenzie is pitching on a half torn UCL. I don't know if they have the pitching depth this year. And I think they might start losing games eight to six. You know, are other teams hitting a lot more home runs too in Cleveland? Yes. Because under that theory, yeah, they should be. Yeah.

If you look at the Statcast Park Factors, Cleveland right now in a one-year park factor is the most offensive friendly park in the big leagues. I mean, yeah, we know there are limitations of small sample size park factors, but that's enough of a change where you can reasonably say things are different. It's not overall the friendliest. It's overall, it's the fifth friendliest, but for homers, it's the most, most homer friendly park in the big leagues right now. Really? Yeah. So, but there are limitations to one of your park factors because you've got Dodger Stadium second. We've been talking about how Dodger Stadium has become more friendly to homers

over time. I think it's, I think it's global warming. Honestly, I was, I, I covered a world series game that was 98 at game time for an evening game. Uh, Padres is third. Padres have gone up and down the last few years. Like the park factor has just been up and down. I have no idea what's going on there.

Orioles is fourth, which is weird because they just built Mount Baltimore and they had yo-yo down. Astros are fifth, the Rays are sixth. The Rays have the sixth friendliest home run park factor right now. That seems absurd. That's a pitcher friendly park.

That's noise. I mean, think about it, right? I think it's kinda noisy. The season is five and a half, six weeks old. Half your games have been at home. Like that's not a lot of sample. You're talking about four or five series. But I would also say like what has changed

in terms of personnel for Cleveland that you would be like, oh yeah, now they hit homers. I mean, I think they have two home run hitters on this entire team. Yeah, approach. I mean, not much. I think they have two home run hitters on this entire team. Yeah. Approach. I think the approach matters. I think they have realized that they need home runs. They used to for a while tell guys contact is king. And I think they've come back down off that a little bit. I guess, but I mean, I think Josh Naylor and Jose Ramirez

are the only guys who are really going to hit homers on this team. At least in like the 25 to 30 home run sort of level, right? Like that's where I think everybody else is supporting contributions in power or a lot more. You think they're going to get up more like 10 and 15 and stuff. That's what I see when I look at guys like Freeman and Brennan. I mean, the wild card is someone like Kyle Manzardo. He just got called up, made his debut on Monday. He's going to be part of that first base DH mix with Naylor.

Debut didn't go quite the way anybody would have hoped. There was three strikeouts, but he was hitting the ball hard, making good swing decisions and putting up pretty big numbers at every stop along the way in the minors. So I think there's your like, what could be different at the beginning of the season with that may chase the lottery. If he hit enough at double A would get a quick promotion to AAA. Maybe he'd be knocking on the door this summer. He's dealing with a foot injury, same foot that he had surgery on in January of 2023. So he's down right now at Akron, no timetable for his return. But I think Manzardo is sort of the big boost that they could use. They could have a third home run hitter potentially if things click for him right away. The pitching questions I think are legit.

They are going to miss Bieber just because you're talking about a high quality starter that consistently could be their maybe their best guy if everything's going well. But you look at McKenzie, you're right, you know, he just does not himself. His walk rate's way up right now, K up right now k rates down velocity isn't great you just worried that that's an is that waiting to happen. I like by be quite a bit i think he'll be fine but he's kind of alone on island right now cause carrasco i'm sorry i'm old is dirt he's he's old is dirt and you got ben lively who is know, really interesting kind of invisible guy, but he sits 90.6 with the fastball. I don't know how long that kind of deception lasts. We've seen Lively sort of bounce around a little bit. So and then that's the five they have now.

Like, I don't know what's in the cupboard. Hunter Gaddis, like Tyler Beatty, like who's Xavion Curry. I don't trust the cupboard? Hunter Gaddis, like Tyler Beatty, like who's Zaveon Curry? I don't I don't trust the cupboard anymore. Yeah, I think that's where my skepticism with the Guardians is. I generally think they're a little better than they were last year in the lineup. And Bo Naylor is off to a slow start. I think he'll be better than he's been so far. That's one more quality bat.

Andres Jimenez could split the difference between 22 and 23. He's a solid player. You're not really looking for a lot of power from him, but he's a good all around offensive player and a good defensive player. That's the one thing that does sort of hold things together or at least makes the pitching staff round up. Even as they lose guys, they're at least a league average defense with the potential to be a little bit more.

The thing that jumps off the page, they are sixth as a pitching staff and strikeout minus walk rate at 16.4%. I don't know how they're going to get that to continue. That seems like a mirage. Ben Lively's success to this point is a big part of that. The bullpen is really good. That would be the other takeaway, right? They still have class A. They kind of have this ability to find and develop guys.

Cade Smith is really interesting. They added Scott Barlow. So Hunter Gaddis has been working the relief role so far. They tend to have a good bullpen. Nick Sandlin has been really good for them running a 204 ERA over a strikeout per inning. So they can make games a little shorter because of that bullpen depth. But if they start to lose more starters than they've already lost, they've already kind of been stress testing their depth. They don't have that next guy up the way we're accustomed to seeing in this organization.

They've already kind of went to that well a bunch of times. And that's what I think makes this Guardian start a little bit of a concern is that, yeah, they've weathered the storm, but another storm could really be something that pulls them back down to earth. Let's move on to the twins. I think when you look at the teams in this division on paper, they still sort of stand out as the most well-rounded team. And they've got the offense working pretty well when you consider they've done it without Royce Lewis. They've done it with Carlos Correa having a stint on the IL already. Byron Buxton hasn't been himself,

he's on the IL right now. but they're 19 WRC plus. They're down in strikeout rate. And that's kind of the thing that I'm keeping a close eye on with this team. They're at 24% right now, tied for eighth league wide. Last year they led the major leagues in strikeouts. And that's been the big problem with that offense is yes, they hit barrels, they hit it hard in the air,

but at the cost of strikeouts. Yeah. And in the absence of some of those key players, I mean, Royce Lewis might be their best all-around offensive player. Like that's very likely. It's just been hard to keep him on the field because he's had such bad luck on the health front. Ryan Jeffers has been great. Trevor Larnick has basically been the player that everyone wanted Matt Waller to be during draft season. Edward Julian still doing his thing. It's with high strikeouts, but 20 plus percent better than league average, does some damage. So they've got a lot of different guys contributing.

Korea's back now. There's pretty good balance to the lineup and the pitching staff still looks really good. They lead the league in strikeout minus walk rate and they were right there last year too and that's with John Duran just coming off of the IL. So their bullpen, which is already good, just got one of the best relievers in the game back. So they've actually dealt with their share of problems so far. And this roster actually looks just as good, if not a tick

better than it was a year ago. Yeah, I want to find a way to take the Royals. Okay. I don't know that I've found it yet. I think the, well, did you guys know the Royals lead all of baseball with 29 defensive runs saved? Oh. the world you guys know the Royals lead all baseball with 29 defensive runs saved. I think that's an important thing because defense doesn't often slump the way hitting and pitching do right unless there's a rash of injuries I know it's early but you look at the twins negative 11.

I think it matters especially to the smaller market teams If you are not giving away outs, if you are saving your pitching staff outs and when Royals have had some really good results, early results from that, they've had the best pitching staff in the division. Yeah. So in terms of runs, allowed. So if you're going, if they're going to be able to sustain that, I think a big part of that is keeping the defense the way that they've been. I think the next closest team, let me see. I was just looking at it, was the Dodgers at 25.

That's a pretty impressive stat for the Royals to be that far ahead of the next closest team, which is also the Dodgers. And then you look, and it's a while before you get to a central team, the Guardians are plus 15. So, you know, if you're looking for a way, and I am too, to kind of pull for Kansas City, I think there's some things to like there.

I guess one thing that bothers me is that I think depth matters over the course of 162. And I know that the Royals are doing a lot of work under the hood in terms of trying to make their player development better and trying to make their pitching development better in particular. But I don't know that they're there yet. And so when you look at the depth charts for the twins, you see Simeon Woods Richardson, who's pitching well right now.

You've got Louis Varland, who's who know some nice things to say about him, but he's working through it right now in the minors. And then David Festa is a top 10 guy and stuff plus in the minor leagues and he's been really working on his command and it's been it's been showing recently so I would say that they have three. Guys that are sort of you know five six seven that are better than any of the five six seven on the royals. I mean the royals right now are kind of got Alec Marsh there. They've got Daniel Lynch. I don't know Jordan miles. I would take the the twins five six seven and so that means that you know if the Royals keep Cole Reagan's Brady singer Michael Walker seth lu go healthy all year.

Then i can see them actually winning the division. I'll do it on defense the do it on power michael massie's been showing some power showing some good stuff for they also have a kind of a core in pascantino and wit and i think michael garcia was south res is still slugging so. And I think Michael Garcia, but Sal Perez is still to slugging. So like I there's there's some ways that I can tell the story that the Royals win it. But usually the story includes some injury. That's just what we've been talking about forever about baseball. And I think that the twins are much better suited. In fact, they've weathered some injury. They're going to get some guys back, you know, whereas the Royals have been largely healthy.

What happens when they're kind of spate of injuries comes? Yeah, that's the thing I'd be most worried about from the Royals perspective. Cause you look at the twins, I mean, Pablo Lopez, Joe Ryan, Bailey Ober, Ober, because that first start against the Royals was so bad, people were very concerned, but it's got a two 37 ERA and a 27 to six strikeout to walk ratio in his last five starts since that meltdown against the Royals his first time out. He looks good again. He looks like a three or a four, which they definitely need him to be consistently at

that sort of level. But if Joe Ryan keeps the ball in the park, if he fixes his biggest skills flaw, Lopez and Joe Ryan are a great one too and they're as good as any one too, currently in that division. And then when you think about the quality of the bullpens up and down the division, that's another area where I'm a little bit skeptical of the Royals. I know James McArthur has been a great call for you so far.

It's like, yeah, he's good, but a lot of other guys are underperforming in that bullpen unit. And if you have a couple of spots in the back of your rotation that are a little bit weak, that A bullpen is gonna get overtaxed really quickly. I do think when I look at the Royals right now, I can see some similarities to the Diamondbacks of a year ago, because to Britt's point, their defense by whatever metric you want to use is very good. It could be the best defense

in the league and the consistency of that group paired with a few younger hitters that should be better going forward than they've been so far between Vinny Pasquentino and Michael Garcia gives them a lot to put around guys like Sal Perez and Bobby with Jr. And I owe Salvador Perez another apology. Like every time I count that guy out, he comes in, he mashes, he shows up with like 25 to 30 home run power. He's a great run producer, he doesn't have to catch as much as he used to, but he's still a really good hitter. So you've got your superstar in Bobby Witt Jr. kind of playing the role of Corbin Carroll from last year's Diamond Bax team if you want to make the side-by-side comparison. You have this other great veteran pillar in Sal Perez, you have these other young guys on the rise I don't know if their secondary veterans are quite as good as what Arizona had in their lineup last year

But I'm with you on Michael Massey I think he is kind of interesting as someone that could be better than people realize and I want to see how aggressive they are Midseason I mean they were the team that got Cole Regans for the enrolled as Chapman rental and Reagan's just looks like a steal He's picked up right where he left off last year. It looks like kind of a five war sort of starter, which is an amazing poll. What do they have to use to buy though? Yeah, that might be a problem. They might have to make really marginal trades, really marginal.

They don't really have that many prospects. And they already win all in this winter and spent for them anyway. They spent a bunch of money. They spent over a hundred million dollars. Yeah, how much money do they have to spend? Let me just flip the script real quick though on the twins. Byron Bux and what if he's never the same again? They've been dealing with him not being the same for years though.

He's been so injured unfortunately. They've had to do everything they've done for most of the time he's been on the roster without him because he's been on the IL. Yeah. Yeah, you're right. Royce Lewis late May. I just there's something with like Correa Lewis and Buxton being important to them and also maybe the frailest players in the big leagues.

Yeah, the most unlucky and injury prone trio of three important position players a team has at this point. I think that's a fair statement. I like all three of those players. If they only have one of those guys going forward at any time, I don't fear this offense. I think that's fair.

I think, again, like we said, the twins on paper are deeper and better, but there is a path for the Royals here. I think it's staying healthy. Is it just a big part of it? And then maybe some improvements from guys who underlying stats like you know, like my Massey and Garcia, like really, if Massey and Garcia put it together, then like wouldn't is there not? I know the projections don't don't don't don't agree with me. I'm booked at this but but is there not a chance that you might take the Royals offense in a neutral stadium. You know with a healthy let's say you get one of Korea of oxygen and and Royce Lewis so you're building a twins line up with one of those guys And I'm saying the Royals are healthy. They have all their guys.

Well, if the Royals are healthy and have all their guys, that probably closes the gap enough. If we're only talking about one of those twins, I also think it makes a big difference as to which one it is. If it's Royce Lewis, that's a huge difference than if it's just Buxton healthy or just Correa healthy. Royce Lewis on a per game basis, it hasn't been a large sample, looks like a superstar.

That's why people were chasing them as an early rounder in fantasy. That's why the twins are so excited about him. The other thing with the twins that I think people are sleeping on a little bit right now, because none of these prospects were guys that you expected to see early in the season. They have Brooks Lee currently on the IL and the minors, and they have Emmanuel Rodriguez at double AA right now. And Emmanuel Rodriguez looks really polished.

Really, really polished. There's power, there's speed. He's running a 500 OBP at AA right now as a 21 year old, which is bananas. So you could look at Rodriguez and Lee and say, there are two more impact position players that could be joining this lineup before the end of the summer. So you could look at Rodriguez and Lee and say, there are two more impact position players that could be joining this lineup before the end of the summer. So I think that's one other part of this twins depth that makes them a little better than the teams trying to chase them.

I think my brain says twins, but my heart kind of says Royals. I don't know why there's they just they seem like underdogs. There's there is a way that they just they just stay healthy. And some of the younger guys get better and they do something interesting here. But the twins, I think, is they're like quality around. And they, you know, they they have prospects, too. So if you're like talking about Manzardo coming up from the Cleveland, then yes, you should talk about it. Emmanuel Rodriguez and Brooks Lee.

But yeah, that is the missing thing right now for me with the Royals. They don't have those interesting young players they could add to this roster on the fly from the minors. And it might be an unheralded move, right? People weren't doing backflips when they added James MacArthur in that small trade, even when they added Reagan's. I remember people going crazy saying, oh yeah, Reagan's is an ace. What's everyone else missing? So they could do it like that again. It's just not gonna be the big splashy blockbuster sort of trade.

Let's get to the fourth team that is in contention in this division. It's the Tigers. They're one over 500, five behind the Guardians right now. The big problem so far has been the Tigers bats, they're 24th in WRC plus. They have the sixth highest strikeout rate in the league, 24.3%. There are a few things going right.

Riley Green looks like he's taking the next step, right? We saw all the rumblings of one more step forward, the full breakout, and it's happened to this point. Mark Kana, Matt Vierling, Kerry Carpenter, they look like solid role players. So they've got some guys hitting but Spencer Torkelson still has not homered yet. Baby Pete Alonso has not homered yet this season as we

enter play on May 7th. So you have Torkelson struggling, Javi Baez just is lost beyond all repair at this point. He's got a 35 WRC plus and Colt Keith has had a really tough first month plus trying to adjust to big league pitching. So I look at this team and I said, I like the pitching. Tarek Scoobel looks great. Jack Flaherty is having a bounce back year.

We think Casey Mize might miss some more bats going forward. They've had a few success stories in the bullpen. You can at least look at their A bullpen and say it's good. I don't know if they can fix their bats. I don't know how much of the early struggles are the lack of experience for Keith and how much of it might just be how difficult that park is, especially in the early part of the season. So can you sell me, can either one of you sell me on this Tigers lineup coming together in a way

where they stay in the mix all summer long for the AL Central? I mean, define stay in the mix. Stay within five to eight games of the leader? To be clear buyers at the trade deadline. Maybe not the most aggressive buyers, but to be a team that sees itself as enough of a contender to patch up the holes, you know, come late July. I don't know if there's a road for that.

I think they may be one of those Stan Patton, if we get lucky, we get lucky kind of teams. I agree with you. I think what's encouraging is you're, you've seen some of the young pitchers that I feel like we've heard about for years now, Mize and Scoobel kind of take that step forward that everyone was waiting for them to take. So you are seeing some really encouraging things on that side. And the other side, like Javi Baez, is that going to go down as one of their worst free agent signings of that year? You know, like he's just, he's just not the guy they need there.

He's not the guy on the field. He's not the guy on the field, he's not the guy off the field. You know, he really hasn't been a difference maker there and they badly needed a difference maker there. That is why they signed him in free agency to that contract. So, you know, you go through this position player group and to me, it doesn't strike a whole lot of fear. You know, I know we were just talking about the Royals and how, you know, there's not a whole lot of depth there.

And, you know, the Tigers I think have some some interesting guys in the Miners. I just don't see them making these big...they're not the Orioles. They're not gonna call up guys who are gonna make actual big impact at the big league level. And I don't see this ownership group thinking this is the year we go in. You know, Scott Harris is a very new age, cautious GM. I think they are big on building something here and I don't think they're going to be a team that says, well, we're close. Let's get a bat at the deadline.

I also think if you look at the last couple of deadlines, there's been barely any impact bats. You know, less and less teams are willing to part. You know, if you want a reliever, July is a great time to get a reliever. You want a rental starter? Sure. Yes. But the impact bats, those are largely going away.

Josh Bell was the prize of the trade deadline, right? Was that last year? You know, there's just not a whole lot there to upgrade, so I don't see a path where the Tigers are atop the AL Central. I think they're interesting. I think they're headed in the right direction. They fooled me two years ago, as you guys know. I thought they were headed in the right direction then.

Then they dropped the ball, took a little break. Now I think they're pushing it right back up the hill. But I still think they have a little work to do. I mean, if I was trying to fiddle with the dials right now as a leader in that organization, what I've heard is that Scott sort of excels in run prevention and that's his sort of bailey wick, I guess. I hope I'm using that right. It's one of those words you use and you're not sure you know what it means.

Judges? Anyway, huh? I have no idea if you used that correctly. Okay good nice. Anyway he's supposedly good at run prevention. What I would be doing is fiddling with the dials and run creation. I would send Parker Meadows down right now to try and find it. It doesn't look very good good I think colt Keith is just a little bit more there. To put your hat on like for example the walk rate and strikeout rate are fine you know so you're just like you're talking about quality of contact and sometimes. You can figure to unlock something there and then we know once maybe the corresponding move for Parker Meadows is is taking Josh young up Jace young Josh Young's brother. I'm and bringing him up because he's in triple A it doesn't seem like he has a lot more to work on in the minor leagues and he could infuse this team with a little bit of upside.

of upside, you know, right now the only people really playing well are Riley Green, Mark Kanna, Carrie Carpenter, and Matt Vierling. Um, if you put Wensil Perez in center and you put young, uh, young at, at third, maybe you can start to feel the lineup that has, you know, more than half of the lineup is above average. And, uh, then you can let Colt Keith, like, you know, sort of hang out at the bottom of the lineup and try to figure it out. So that would be a move I would make right now. It might sound like panic, but it is May 7th and they have a winning record and Parker Meadows does not look good and Young does.

So and I think this is the kind of roster with enough flexibility where you can actually make that move. Yeah, I think there's also with Colt Keith, I know the quality of contact hasn't been there, but the sub 20% strikeout rate for a guy getting his first look at big league pitching, he at least spent half a season at AAA. So it's not like he was there for a full year and destroyed the level to a degree where he said, oh, he's obviously going to just crush it from the jump in the big leagues. But I think the overall makeup of what he's done, even though he's underperformed,

leaves the door open for a much better run throughout the rest of the season. I mean, he's still projected to be around the average going forward. So some projections even better than that. So yeah, by process, sort of holding it all together. But yeah, I do think Jace Young could be pretty interesting you and I have talked about Justin Henry Malloy as the kind of player that if you can find a way to just not have to play him in the field you should see what he can do with the bat he continues to be more than 30% above the average at triple-a Toledo they don't seem to trust him for some reason I mean even in spring training he

was shipped out a bit earlier than you expected. And like, I don't know. I think it's the glove. I think it's the lack of a true defensive position. So I don't know, man. Like I'm still looking at them as more of a long-term riser as opposed to a short-term riser. But if they're going to get there this year, it's because some of those young guys did take a step.

Torkelson gets back to being the guy we saw throughout the second half of last year. Keith sort of figures it out. And the pitching just keeps doing good things. Like it's gonna be pitching first. They don't quite have the defensive chops of the Royals, kind of more of like an average defensive team. But I think the quality of their pitching on the whole

is actually a little bit better. So they can offset it that way as far as run prevention goes in Detroit. It's a prizely good division like we thought this might be really obviously the twins and Nobody else's Mm-hmm. So how would you rank them if you had to decide today? What's the order of finish? I know you both seem to like the Royals. Are you actually gonna take them and have them win this thing?

Okay, I'm the king of waffle so I'll go my money where my mouth is. I'll say, I'll put them in there. Okay. I'm the king of waffle. So I'll go twins, Royals, guardians, Tigers. I'm yeah, I'm going to go Royals, twins, guardians, Tigers. So we all agree here that the Tigers aren't going to be buyers at the deadline. They're going to be Stan Patters. Like I don't even know if the Guardians will be buyers in the deadline.

Like I don't know if the Royals won't be. So like, we may not have. Yeah, there might be a lot of stand paths. Yeah. Yeah. I could see the Tigers making a move, but not necessarily making it for a rental. It might just be, hey, this trade makes us better in the long run.

It made sense for us, helps us now, helps us later. You know, we're still looking at 25 and 26 as the bigger part of our window, the early part of our window. But like, they do seem like a candidate as the bigger part of our window, the early part of our window. Like they do seem like a candidate to maybe trade a pitcher for a bat. But all of their pitchers are so young

and so far from even arbitration. What have I got here? So Tarek Scoobel is in arbitration two more years, but you're not trading him. He seems like the ace. You need him. Right. And so where is, uh, Mize Oh, Mize is interesting. He's only they've only got two more years of him because of all the injuries. Would you consider this year next year or two after this year? Well, they've got 2026.

That would be a really valuable piece. I wouldn't trade them then. Do you go to the system and trade Jackson Job or Manning? No, no, no. He has a de Grom like upside. Haunt Manning. I can't find he's not on the active roster. So they have, but they have him for a while.

He's got a little over two years of service time, so they should have three more seasons of Matt Manning. So there's your guy that you could trade. Maybe, but they're, they're, they're almost too good to trade. Got to give something to get something. What would they, who is selling? Oh, like a jazz. You could go that route or you could go to Baltimore. Get one of the excess hitters from the O's.

Wow, try to get like Norby or yeah, make the trade that the Marlins never made with the Orioles that we tried to speak into existence for all of last season. Like a real bat for a real arm. Yeah. That'd be fun. I'd be on board with that. I'm gonna put the twins in the driver's seat. They're gonna win the division.

Give me the, geez, I'm gonna take the twins, the Royals. It's probably because you're talking me into them. Yeah. I'll take the Tigers over the Guardians. I think some of the flaws you mentioned for the Guardians are- We're gonna get some angry Cleveland fans after this one. I know we Yeah. I'll take the Tigers over the guardians. I think some of the flaws you mentioned for the guardians are. We're going to get some angry Cleveland fans after this one. I know.

I know. We're going to get some happy Royals fans. Although you picked them to go, I like that. I'm a little nervous. Well, you know, you got to roll the dice a little. This, they might win by one game. I think we all are thinking that no one's running away with the central, right?

With like, no one's going to win by 10 games. Well, I haven't even mentioned the the projected standings really quickly the projected standings are twins with 88 wins guardians with 85 wins royals with 82 and tigers with 81 so that's pretty tight yeah I'm talking like one game difference between the tigers and guardians and just take the tigers as the contrarian team that wants to finish the season strong, whereas like the Guardians broken down by injuries. Wow, DVRs got a bottomed out. Royals had the best run differential in the division. I'm telling you what, you guys, they could do it.

So I wanted to ask you both, of the players you've seen a lot of over the years, who has exceeded your expectations the most? Who were you wrong about in a good way? You thought they were just kind of an average player or maybe they weren't going to be a regular and they turned out to have really good productive careers or they were a starter, but they became an excellent starter and And it just was not expected. You know, like, so like my guy is Marcus Simeon. I think Marcus Simeon, there was a point

early on with this time with the A's where I thought, OK, Marcus Simeon is what you see like twenty seven, twenty eighteen. Twenty seventeen, twenty eighteen is kind of like, OK, double digit homers, double digit speed, not a great OBP sub 400 slugs. Maybe not a shortstop. Good, good player, but just just a guy like nothing, nothing special. Right. And then between 2019, when he popped to 33 homers in Oakland, 2021, when he hit 45 with the Blue Jays, which I don't care what baseball

you're using or which minor league park you're playing some of your games in. That's still a ridiculous season. And on top of all that, like there's this durability, which he kind of always had, but there's also the improvement defensively. Like, I never saw that coming for Marcus Samien. I was pretty sure he was like a two war, three war player and not the kind of guy we'd be talking about in his early thirties as a premier infielder or a guy that would get a contract like the

one he got from the Rangers two off seasons ago. Right. So maybe be worth it and maybe actually completely earn it. Yeah. Dollar for dollar. I mean, I know year one he was kind of league average, but being league average for 161 games is actually very hard. And I think some of this is like an expectation problem.

This was rookies too. Rookies come up and if they're not great right away, oh, what's wrong with this player? What's wrong with this player? It's like, if you come up as a first time big leaguer and you're 15% worse than league average, that's probably good. That's probably actually meeting an expectation in a reasonable sort of way.

There's nothing wrong with Wyatt Langford. No, there's nothing wrong with Wyatt Langford. There's probably nothing wrong with Jackson Holliday either, but our expectations are you're going to come up and you're going to hit like Juan Soto right away because Juan Soto did it. So why can't you? And that's just, that's unfair, right? That's, that's putting the expectations in the wrong place.

But yeah, thinking about it from like these veteran perspectives, who surprised you the most over the years as someone that just rose up to this level that you never saw coming. I mean, I've been I've covered like surprising seasons, like Herbardo Parra with the Nats. Like, yeah, that's a big one. I remember like joking around with my editor, like print the playoff tickets. They just got swept in Milwaukee in May. And sure enough, you could have printed the playoff tickets

when they got him because he was a game changer. You know, Chris Davis, 53 home run season. You know, I've covered like some stuff that you're like, didn't see that coming. Zach Britton with the AL over 50 straight saves, new American league saves record. But the one player that jumped out to me when we talked about this guys was Tre Mancini.

He's a guy who, you know, I was covering the Orioles at the time and all you heard was that he was a 4A guy. You know, he was a guy who would come up in spring training and be impressive or come up for September call-ups and look good. But people in the organization were just convinced that he wasn't going to translate over. And you hear enough of that and you start to believe it as well. And you're like, well, all right then, you know, the Orioles believed soini is not this all-star guy.

He was comeback player of the year. He's not known as one of the top players in baseball, but for a guy who people didn't think had a place in the big leagues, who not only played in the big leagues, came back from cancer, and continued to be a serviceable big league player, and won the World Series when he got traded from Baltimore to Houston halfway. I mean, he had a career that I think all three of us would sign up for in blood on the field. So he's a guy that jumps out to me as somebody who I think

expectations were very low who exceeded them. I think it's a lot harder for guys to exceed expectations than it is for players. We've all, I mean, I have dozens of guys who were supposed to be the next big thing that I covered and was around daily that weren't. Right? I think because we run them up the flagpole, because we think we know who these guys are, and because the guys who are the hydrapics get so many more chances at every level, at every step of the way, it is a lot harder for these guys who aren't these touted first rounders, who don't have these big bonus baby label attached to them to exceed those expectations. It's getting harder and harder for those guys to exceed expectations.

So I think it's actually a really interesting question, Derek, because there aren't that many of these guys and they are going away. You know, gone are the days where we're going to see, oh, this guy was a 30th rounder, but we're just not gonna see that. I think it used to be more of the norm. And now the deck is just stacked so much against these guys, we're shortening up the draft, they may short up the draft again and I think it's just becoming a case where we are setting more guys up to fail than we are for guys to succeed because the barrier we have for them is low. And then there's also just our expectations have changed, like the way that we calibrate our expectations have changed, I think, with the different advanced stats.

We now, like if somebody comes up and they were not so heralded, but in the first month they hit the ball 120 miles an hour a bunch of times or they they throw the ball a hundred miles an hour a bunch of times we immediately adjust our expectations and so it's hard for us to be like you know looking back be like oh yeah before I saw him hit the ball 120 he was a nobody you know we just remember oh he hit the ball 120 and then he was good you know like so there's these like metrics that sort of change how fast we think about a player. I think, you know, the guy that I come up with is Chris Bassett because, you know, those metrics never really were in his favor. He comes from Chicago in this deal.

He's striking out six batters per nine with a 92 8 on the fastball. I was like, I don't know that this is going to be meaningful. Maybe he'll the bullpen and be good but I don't see him as a starter his first year in Oakland he has some success in 86 innings but again. The the the the the. Yeah right like the things you like Sierra the area estimators the advanced stats say that his he's he should've been a run higher than he was. So I was like, I don't know. This doesn't seem like it's really that great of a package. Uh, in 16, he has a 60 RA and I pat myself on the back and say, you know, you, you got that one. Right. And, uh, then spend 17 in the miners, 18, he's kind of up and down and he's arguing with Bob Melvin about being sent back down and said something like I'm a major league starter.

Why are you sending me back down? So, um, this, I was like, woof, irascible, like everybody loves Bob Melvin. He's one of the few that I've heard say anything like this, uh, against him. Uh, he's still only throwing 92, 93, you know, I counted about totally 2019 in the year of the rabid ball. He has a three eight ERA and 144 innings. And I had to kind of reevaluate a little bit. And since then I've still been mostly wrong on him, even though I've said, okay, he's a credible major league starting pitcher.

I've been fixated on the velocity. I think I've overthought him too much. Um, and he's a guy that has, you know, five pitches. And in fact, he kind of reminds me a little bit of Marcus Simeon, which is like just high work ethic works hard. Has a bunch of skills and has tried to hone each of those skills in his pace, it's five pitches, six pitches. He's found a way to sort of bing, bing, bingcus simian in his case it was like if i get the glove up.

You know the give me the chances and i'll find the bad overtime you know but it's because he was fast and. Hard working i think hard working is sometimes like a little part of this. It's really hard to to nail that in you, you look at it watch a guy for a week Are they hardworking or not decide for yourself like watch your next your favorite player and decide if they're hardworking or not I don't know how to do that. It takes And even when you're in the scouting world I think you're often dependent upon what people around a player say to sort of round out what you assess from watching a player say to sort of round out what you assess from watching a player effort wise. But they have, they have reason to tell you what they think based on their own bias.

No, I think that they would have reason to tell you to fluff them up. Yeah, of course. Is your high school coach going to tell you scout that you don't work hard? Right. And if you're coming out of a college program, then the college coach is going to tell you, oh yeah, he's great. Our program is great. Tell everyone's great, our program is great. Tell everyone how great Georgia baseball is. All three are college guys that were drafted reasonably late. Bassett, a 16th rounder out of Akron,

which is just like, to have the career he's having is pretty remarkable. Semian was a sixth rounder, I think, out of Cal. And Mancini was like an eighth rounder, I think, out of Cal. And Mancini was like an 8th rounder out of Notre Dame. And I do think there's something to be said for the expectations being different for guys that played college ball and guys that didn't. They tend to be lower because they're older. I don't know if that's necessarily right.

Also that they would hit the ground running a little bit more because they've had more seasoning. Yeah. And it's kind of like, it's still, it's still a tough adjustment. I mean, college is a metal bat like that. That alone seems like a pretty big adjustment to make as a hitter. I realize there are wood bat leagues. A lot of those guys playing in the summer, like the Cape North woods, all those different types of leagues.

But I don't know. Like the college season is such a different time of year, different structure. I think we want everyone to fit into models and molds and they just don't. That's where we get these guys that are outliers that surprise us. Then we put the weight of the world on 18 year old kids that do some of the things that you talked about. Oh, well, we got this kid in high school that's posting a 110 Max EV. We got this kid in high school that's touching 99 on the radar gun and that,

that puts the expectations just unbelievably high because the age adjustment for that as well. If he can do this now, what will he be able to do when he's 22 or 23? And that's where I think we fall into trouble. It's just adding layers upon layer. We have people who are really good at scouting and writing up a detailed scouting report of what players do well. And then a lot of us jump in on that and try to bridge the gap to what current big

league is that like? Like comps, comps seem very dangerous. They seem very problematic because every player is unique. Yeah, but it's really helpful in a player development standpoint, if you tell a kid, hey, we want you to make the same adjustments that like DeGrom did, you know, like, you know, like we want you, like, do you saw this guy make this adjustment?

You can do it and you could be like him. So in a player development context, it makes sense. And then the scouting context, it's like, it's like, um, uh, cribbing. It's a short, it's like, uh, what's it called when you, you use like a shorter word for a longer word? Like it's, um, it's a shortcut. It's like a, instead of me explaining to you all the things this guy does, I can say, Oh, Brandon Phillips, I see a young Brandon Phillips. Then you start to, you can be like that. I can say a lot more with one thing than I could with. I was like, Oh, athletic. My play beyond what you expect out of his KBV, you know, like this just like missing the uniqueness of the player, you know, putting them into some sort of box that they're not actually, that's not the right box, you know. Right. The comp could be wrong and then expectations are misaligned and the player gets coached

incorrectly because all along they misidentified, oh, well, this reminded me of Brandon Phillips out of high school. Brandon Phillips took a pretty meandering road to become a very good big leaguer. So that's just one example, right? Any player you put like that took a unique path. That's where I think it's like, yeah, it can be helpful, but it can also, it can make you miss in a certain way, even if there are some very similar characteristics

of those players. Yeah, I mean, I think the hardest thing to do in scouting and in player development is to like, stay malleable and like stay, stay open to new information and and like receive information and not sort of fall into these are the things I know and I, and I just do the things I know. You know what I mean? It's it's like people call it the growth mindset or whatever, but that's, that's how I see it is like, you kind of want to do, you want to have processes that you believe in. And so like, Oh, Hey, anybody who's got a two thirds slot, we treat him a sweeper and a sinker. Like let's do that. Like that's worked before it's worked for Michael King. And, but then don't just do that. Like that's worked before it's worked for Michael King and. But then don't just do that for everybody.

Don't take somebody who has a decent foreseam and tell him not to throw it just because he's that in a slot or don't take someone who has a great changeup and ignore it. You know, it's like, yeah, you have to, there's something in between where it's like, these are the good processes. But if you teach me, if you show me something, I could, then I'm going to put that Brandon Phillips comp away You know because it's not useful Yeah, that's interesting. It is probably one of the hardest things about getting from point a to point B It's like hey, we thought this now. We have to think this instead

How do we how do we adapt to the needs of each player? When we have a good process that tends to work tends to turn out big leaguers Sometimes you end up trading those players away. They become good players somewhere else because they didn't fit your organization. But the ideal outcome is being able to develop those players yourself if you can tick all the boxes. Easier said than done, to be sure. We are going to go on our way out the door. A reminder, get a subscription to The Athletic at theathletic.com, slash rates and barrels. You can find Britt on Twitter at Britt underscore Jeroly find Eno at Eno, Sarah's find me at Derek van Riper. Find the pod at rates and barrels.

Join the discord. The link is in the show description. If you haven't joined that already, that's going to do it for this episode of rates and barrels. We're back with you on Thursday. Thanks for watching!