Rates & Barrels - Why Each Team in Contention Will Get Bounced (& Why They'll Win it All)

Episode Date: September 24, 2024

Eno, Britt and DVR discuss the flaws for each of the 15 remaining teams in contention for the playoffs and explain why that could lead to their elimination (and share a few reasons why they could win the World Series). Does recent form even matter? If so, for how long? Does the Orioles' underwhelming second half mean more than the Royals' seven-game losing streak, or can teams turn everything around with a clean slate in October? Rundown 1:15 The Dodgers' Current Starting Pitching Options 5:06 Are The Phillies Ready to Finish the Job in 2024? 8:51 Is Starting Pitching Depth the Brewers' Biggest Weakness? 13:58 Could the Padres' Defense Lead to Their Playoff Demise? 17:47 Can the D-backs Continue to Outhit Their Pitching? 21:24 What Are Mets' Biggest Concerns Beyond Francisco Lindor's Health? 27:05 Is the Braves' Nightmare Simply Missing the Postseason? 29:48 Has the Gap Between the Yankees and Astros Closed Since the 2022 ALCS? 34:54 We Owe an Apology to the Guardians 39:49 What Are the Astros' Concerns Beyond the Yordan Alvarez Injury? 44:22 Macro View Problems for the Orioles 50:46 Are the Tigers Actually Good? 56:08 Beyond the Seven-Game Losing Streak, What Are You Worried About with the Royals? 1:01:34 Can The Twins Clear the Cobwebs? 1:07:07 It Would Be a Shame for the Mariners to Waste This Pitching Follow Eno on Twitter: @enosarris Follow DVR on Twitter: @DerekVanRiper Follow Britt on Twitter: @Britt_Ghiroli e-mail: [e-mail] Join our Discord: https://discord.gg/FyBa9f3wFe Subscribe to The Athletic: theathletic.com/ratesandbarrels Hosts: Derek VanRiper, Eno Sarris & Britt Ghiroli Executive Producer: Derek VanRiper Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

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Go to kraken.com and see what crypto can be. Not investment advice. Crypto trading involves risk of loss. See kraken.com slash legal slash ca dash pru dash disclaimer for info on Kraken's undertaking Welcome to Rates and Barrels Tuesday, September 24th. Derek and Ryper, you know, Saris, Britt, Jiroli here with you on this episode. We take a look at the 15 teams that are still in playoff contention. Some of them have clinched their spots already. We don't know the seating, of course, but we still have plenty of regular season left to hash that out.

We're going to dig into each of those teams and tell you why they are going to get bounced from the postseason if they make it and why they'll actually win the World Series if they make it. Right. Very much a both direction sort of thing. But basically, what is the nightmare fuel for every fan base out there in contention for a playoff spot? What could go wrong before what could go right? fuel for every fan base out there in contention for a playoff spot. What could go wrong before what could go right? So that's where we're going today.

Fifteen teams to cover. Lots of ground. We're going to get right to it. If you haven't joined our Discord yet, you can do that with the link in the show description. Let us know on each team channel if we have appropriately diagnosed the biggest concern about your team. Starting in the NL with the Dodgers, appropriately diagnose the biggest concern about your team. Starting in the NL with the Dodgers, I think this one is a shared fear for a lot of teams

out there. But my read on the Dodgers this year, you know, has been that they are not quite the same Dodgers. In a lot of ways, they are great. In one way in particular, they have one lingering question that I think will define whether or not they actually make a deep run or not this postseason. Who's in the rotation? The sky is falling. We've got a two pitch pitcher from the Tigers starting for us in game one,

maybe, uh, Yamamoto. We don't know how much depth he has in game two. And then game three is Walker Bueller or Landon Nack. Who is Landon Nack? And then the closer came from the worst team in baseball. And I haven't even mentioned yet that if you look at teams in the playoffs, how they've hit in the playoffs since 20, since the beginning of 2021, the Dodgers have hit 231, 301, 372.

That's 16% worse than the average in the playoffs. Their bats fall asleep in the playoffs. That is why the Dodgers are screwed. That is the most pessimistic read at the Dodgers I've ever heard in this era of super teams that's always a contender. I did it with my sportscasters voice too. You really leaned into that one.

Just to provide a glimmer of hope for a fan base that has plenty of it aside from having Shohei Otani who's just on another planet. Yeah, was Shohei Otani one of those playoff at bats, not really. No. And this lineup is still tied with the Yankees for best in baseball during the regular season. Most teams, WRC pluses, their overall performance will drop in the postseason. You face better pitching, right? You're not going to beat up on bottom half teams.

So everything gets more difficult. And we're talking about small sample sizes too. There are plenty of caveats, right? That's the nature of playoff baseball. Anything can happen, but they're still keeping a better than average strikeout rate in that lineup while doing damage. They're tied for second at Homers. They're great by WRC+. So I think it's a little more of a can they out hit their pitching?

Can they manage their bullpen around their starters? Can they get more out of Yamamoto in October than they have since he's come off the aisle? A lot of those questions I think are reasonable. Like, yeah, they probably can do that. But I do think in the longer series in particular, that's when they're starting pitching will be tested in ways that we're not always accustomed to seeing Dodger pitching get tested. This is like baseball speed dating right now.

You know how to make a very quick argument. I don't think Lananak is that bad, honestly. You know, like I think he's a pretty good fastball slider combo guy that can get you three or four innings. If you're only asking Walker Bueller to throw you two innings, that might be fine. I don't know why I did a dig at Michael Kopec.

He's no longer a white sock. I actually thought he was a great acquisition and he's got a really beautiful fastball, which I think compliments the rest of that rotation because you got Trainin's super sinker. You got Kopec's super four seam. You got Phillips super sweeper. Like everybody in that bullpen has a, you know, elite level pitch and they're different. So there's something fun about that bullpen and the lineup has obviously come together even in the last 30 days. They are second in baseball and it's a strong lineup with Lux kind of even stepping forward,

Muncie back healthy, Tommy Edmond in center. There's not really that many holes in this lineup. Yeah, that's the main problem, I think, for opposing teams to figure out as they match up with the Dodgers. No real easy outs in that starting nine. Britt, let's talk about the Phillies. Are they ready to finish the job this time around?

Very familiar cast back on this roster. Can they get it done in 2024? And I think that's the pro. I'm gonna start with the con and try to channel my inner email here and give you a quick hitting super negative view on why the Phillies will get bounced in the first round and then why there's some optimism.

The Phillies played horrific for a long stretch. And that was in part because of that lineup, right? We've seen that lineup be really good. We've seen that lineup be really bad. You look in September, Matt Gelb had a great stat today about how they've chased the most pitches out of the zone in September. So they haven't been exactly clicking on all cylinders. And then of course, all it takes is one or two bad outings from a rotation that has been consistent. They are four deep, their bullpen is very good, but all it takes is a bad outing or two,

four things to snowball and go the wrong way. We have seen a veteran line up before struggle but I think that's their biggest advantage guys they've been there before they're a veteran team. Bryce Harper might be we've talked about this before one of the most clutch hitters in baseball. He's one of the guys that you want up in a big spot. This is a team that's been there before. This is a team that wants in the words of John Middleton their owner and i love this video last night he wants to step in trophy so. I think there's a lot to like about this billy's team. There's a lot of holes, but they are a team that is built to win. They are a team that is built to win now, and they are an older team than a lot of these other teams in the playoffs.

And I do think that matters when every game is under the microscope. If you go down 2-0 or 3-0 in a longer series, I think the Phillies are a team that wouldn't panic so much so as a team made up of younger players. Yeah, I think that experience pays off in situations like that. I did happen to look at the bullpen and I compared the current Phillies bullpen to the bullpens throughout the Dumbrausky fold era. So the last four seasons, this is the best group of relievers the Phillies have put together by strikeout minus walk percentage by Sierra. I think the big weakness they had as they became a playoff team

a couple of years ago has actually become more of a strength. And I think that's a that's good when you tack that on top of quality starting pitching. This is not a weak rotation for a lot of these teams that are in the field this year. We have questions about how good the number two, the number three starter is, or even everybody in the rotation. Phillies do not have that kind of problem, so I think that bodes well for them as well.

There's a little bit also, I think, as I mentioned with the Dodgers, with Gavin Lux and guys like that, is that some of the guys that have been sort of alone in the wilderness in Philadelphia have kind of found their way back. Brandon Marsh has been in and out he's he's he's cooking right now. Jt ro muto has been hurt and people thought maybe you will get healthy all year he's got a one thirty two wrc plus in the last thirty days and so having marsh.

and Rio Muto and then even Castellanos who's really streaky. And so I can't tell you that just because he's been good the last month, he's gonna be good in the playoffs. But having the better version of Castellanos is gotta be, you gotta feel a little better about yourself. And then Turner, Schwaber and Harper are all, the heart of the order are all cooking right now. So some of the playoff, some of the pieces behind the big pieces seem to be in good shape right now

Yeah, these two teams Dodgers and Phillies still jockeying for that number one seed in the NL as well So that might go down to the very final day of the regular season on Sunday Let's look over at the NL Central champs the Brewers This is a definitely among the teams that you have the starting pitching questions about is that their biggest deficiency? You know, is that the thing that Brewers fans are losing sleep over right now? Well, I need you to put your earmuffs on right now. Oh, it's going to make it louder. If I squeeze the headphones, that's not going to help.

But I need to ask one question, which is, is this team even good? Is this team even good? Is this team even good? The reason I have to ask that is this is the 26th ranked starting rotation over the course of the season, 26th. And then if you look at the last 30 days in terms of offense, it's below average. And the only people, you know,

we're talking about deep lineups with the other two teams. The only people, people who are above league average right now on, on the Brewers in terms of the last month are William Contreras, Jackson Trurian, Willie Domas. Those are the hitters that people fear. I don't know that they fear anybody else in that lineup necessarily. So there's a good, and now, now I'm going to start saying nice things. There's a good bullpen there. There's what I think perhaps the best defense in baseball there. The question is, is this going to revert to Brewers offenses of the past? Are those three dynamic enough to push this offense past some of the ghosts that I think the

Brewers offenses have had in the past and I do think they are special. William Contreras and Jackson Trerion, William Adames are special bats so it's going to be there's going to be some pressure on I think the secondary pieces in that lineup. Joy Ortiz is pretty good, Tereng is pretty good, they can play a little better than they played in the last 30 days. Hoskins though, I just wonder, it's been a poor year for him, and I think they need him.

Yeah, I totally agree. I've got two quick points that you didn't touch on. One, they're not a team that's endured a long losing streak, and while that's great in the regular season, I wonder what would happen if they got punched in the mouth, let's say, and lose the first two games of the first round. Right, they haven't seen their resiliency. I know they battled back from big deficit in Arizona.

They've pretty much cruised the NL Central. There hasn't been a whole lot of, oh no, how are the Brewers gonna react backs against the wall? So I'm curious to see that in the post-season when things can snowball quickly. Yeah, actually, that's a really great point because Derek potted up the come from behind victory as being something kind of important for them this this this last week. They just got punched in the

mouth three times in a row at home after clenching the division by the team that knocked them out last year. They were down eight nothing in the third inning on Sunday and came back to win. But the playoffs were never in jeopardy. What are we doing here? They never lost eight games in a row. They never had like this. Oh my God, are we going to make the playoffs? Yes, except teams like, then we'll get to them later. The Tigers, these are the dangerous momentum teams. These are the teams all of a sudden, like I said, you get punched in the mouth what's going to happen, right? So, and my other concern as you know, touched

on the lineup in September 24th and WRC plus at 81. That's not great. We've seen their bats disappear in October. Is that going to be the case again? I think that's hanging over the Milwaukee Brewers until they can get out of the first round and do so in resounding fashion. I hear where you guys are coming from. The swing and miss in the lineup without Yelich in particular is the big issue. They've got a 103 as a team for WRC plus since July 24th is the first game that he was out for the season and they would have the highest strikeout rate among playoff teams.

25% unless the Tigers get in. The Tigers have a ton of swing and miss too. The things I like about the Brewers though, 10 games over 500 on the road get in. The Tigers have a ton of swing and miss too. The things I like about the Brewers though, 10 games over 500 on the road this season, they can go on the road and win. And I think when you look at the way they handle their starting pitching, they manage it by leaning heavily on a great bullpen.

So I think they have a template that other teams in this field have. And the question will be how much can you toggle between starters and relievers? Can you get away with it? Can you do that in longer series? Like those questions are all completely valid. I think it's the swing and miss and the lineup that gives me the most concern. I think the way they've been tested this year, the NL Central is what it is. So if the questions are about that, then you can't really change that. Fortunately,

they have this other thing going for them. They can run. Right. They're going to be the most aggressive base stealing team, at least from the regular season in the postseason field, the only one that's going to get to 200 steals in the regular season. So they can put a little bit of pressure on opposing pitchers too, that some of the other teams in this group can't put on them. So I think they're built differently. I think everyone's going to look at them with a very skeptical eye for all of these reasons. But I think you have to take the fears you have about the powerhouses and think about those. If you're a fan of a team like the Brewers and a few other clubs that need a couple of things to break their way to actually make that run and be a surprise World Series winner in 2024.

Let's shift the focus over to the Padres. I see a lot of positive buzz about the Padres as a team that can do everything. And I think that's a fair call. They've been there before. This is not a first time playoff run for many players in the core. They've got a lot of things they do well. What would you be worried about if you are in the position of being a Padres fan, Britt? So you have defensive limitations up here.

I'm more concerned about Robert Suarez, who has not been good since having an All-Star first half. He hasn't been that reliable guy. And you saw it. We're seeing it against lesser opponents. I mean, he struggled against the White Sox recently. So I think obviously this team went and remade that bullpen at the deadline and it's worked out well. Tanner Scott could slot in if you need him. But if there's one thing

we know about the playoffs, it's that you need those three, four deep guys that you can bring in out of the bullpen that have devastating stuff. So there is a lot to like about this team. I think the return of Fernando Tatis who has been terrific has helped elevate them. Manny Machado after a sluggish start has been really good. And that rotation, now they got Darvish back, Musgrove's pitching really well, Cease, that's a three-headed monster. You also have, of course, like I mentioned, a bullpen that they went out and they specifically got guys to make it better. So I think if they're a dangerous team,

you mentioned the defensive limitations. I also think that a guy like Jackson Merrill, who has come up clutch all year, is going to factor in heavily to this team. I think if they're going to stumble, it's going to be because those bats go quiet and because Suarez comes up and gives it up in key spots. And we've seen how devastating that can be when you can't trust one of your big guns, how much it messes with the psyche of the team, how much it forces bullpen guys out of their roles. But honestly, a lot of this lines up, in my opinion, for San Diego to make a deep run. I think they are one of the more dangerous teams, the way they've been playing, the way they're set up and how healthy they are right now heading into October.

I mean, I think if we're playing the game of what flaw do you want your team to have, you'd have a flaw. I think being a slightly below average defensive team is the thing you'd choose, right? You'd rather have a good lineup, you'd rather have a good rotation and a good bullpen if those are the four categories, right? And the Padres tick all of the other boxes. They get the best team strikeout rate in the league. So I think as far as offenses you worry about, I worry less about the teams

that have lower strikeout rates. So I think they should be relatively fine as far as not having games where they're just helpless against playoff caliber pitching. The other thing I had for the Padres though, they could be the only team in the postseason field that have a top five starting rotation and a top five bullpen by strikeout minus walk percentage, which would be huge. Atlanta is the only team that could do that

if they get in. Yeah, you feel like you're getting nitpicky with them, right? They're just good. I think it's hard to find. They're just good. As far as loses his role, like they've got Tanner Scott, they've got other guys who were closers for other teams, you know, so like, you know,

I think that bullpen is strong enough to overcome that. One thing that I really like about them, you mentioned it with the strikeout rate, but once Tatis and Manny got back to where they were, now you actually have the blend of strikeout rate and power, you know, and that's really what we've seen from successful teams. And when you watch a lot of Padres games what ends up happening is You know you'll get a home run from somebody Jackson Merrill or Tatis or Machado But a lot of times it's there's a guy on second and look who's up It's a rise or Cronenworth somebody who makes contact and you know, you can you can drive that guy in with a single a single as well

so Rise has been really huge for them. I, I hate that he's hobbling around right now on he's got a bad knee. Um, but maybe they can find a way to give them a couple of days off, going into the playoffs and see if that helps. Staying in the NL West, the diamond backsuit, we're just in town in Milwaukee and what's the concern here? They score a ton of runs.

I don't think that there's a worse unit that might make the playoffs than the Arizona Diamondbacks starting rotation. I know I laid into Milwaukee a little bit, but you know, the one thing that you can say about Milwaukee is they, since they're such great defenders, Milwaukee by war is worse than Arizona, but not by ERA. The Milwaukee starting rotation, they have a four 10 ERA. That's actually decent. And I think that has to do with how they leverage their bullpen, how they use their defense. The Arizona Diamondback starting rotation has a four eight one. I mean, the only people worse are the angels, Rockies and Marlins.

I mean, it's, you know, even the White So socks starting rotation has a better ERA than the diamond backs. I mean, this is, this is the worst unit in baseball. The only other little weird thing is they have one of the five biggest splits in terms of home and away WRC plus, um, they really dominate at home offensively and they're not as good on, on the road. And I wonder in the age,

and this is coming out of a piece I'm doing in the age of sort of some of these technological things like the trajectory, uh, hitting thing or certain sort of preparatory things that you might do at home, there might start to be bigger home road splits because you might have a technology available to you at home. And I'm not talking about science dealing. I'm talking about more like, you know, the types of this type of stuff that you do to prepare for a game. Maybe you don't have all those machines and all that stuff when you're on the

road. And so the diamondbacks are a much more dangerous team. They have a one 22 WRC plus at home. And this is where I dot dot dot into the good stuff. It's still one 10 WRC plus on the roads. Still good. It's still good. This is a really, really good hitting team. And, you know, as far as, you know, being me being so negative

about their rotation, if you get it down to Gallin and Kelly and Fatt, you do have some long relievers in Eduardo Rodriguez and George Montgomery and Ryan Nelson might be your best sort of in case of glass starter, mid game starter. So they have some pieces where, you know, if they start to put, if they start to win away the bad pitchers, uh, and focus on the better stuff they have, they may have very much like last year, a passable staff that can get them, that can get them to where they need to go.

But I will say, I still think that this Arizona starting rotation is probably the worst single unit out of like defense or bullpen or starting like the worst single unit out of like defense or bullpen or starting like the worst single unit that will be in the playoffs. It just doesn't look like it should be. I know some of that's because we like Zach Galen and he's kind of a standout in that group. Merrill Kelly doesn't do it with a ton of Ks but is solid. And then Brandon Fox, a guy we believed in as a possible breakout candidate who hasn't had that prolonged run of success yet, right? It might be the next Nick Pivetta, as we said earlier in

the week. So it looks a little better on paper than it does by results to this point. I think that makes you feel kind of okay about it, given the other strengths of this club. They're pretty good defensive team too. So that helps, not elite, but at least good. So maybe if they can just not make mistakes defensively, that helps paper over some of the flaws of those mid and back end starters in particular. If you're shopping while working, eating, or even listening to this podcast, then you know and love the thrill of the hunt.

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How about the Mets, Britt? Do the concerns extend for you beyond the health of Francis Gullindor? That's the biggest concern. I mean, he was supposed to be sidelined two to five days. It keeps getting pushed out a little bit more. This is a guy who you can make a case is the NL MVP. So he runs that clubhouse. He runs that team.

Yes, they've done a really admirable job of stepping up without him, but in my mind, if they don't have Lindor for the playoffs, it's going to show up. They're going to need just otherworldly performances from like a Pete Alonso or JD Martinez, who really haven't seen a whole lot of signs that these guys are going to go on some absolute tear. I think if you're a Mets fan, you're encouraged that they've been pretty much the best team in baseball since like June. This has been a very long stretch of very good baseball. And you really like the way the depth has been added, the way Stearns has upgraded the bullpen and the way they've been pitching. I mean, Sean Manaya, Luis Severino have kind of been their anchors all year, but you're

getting pitching performances from other guys as well. You know, Tyler McGill has been good and you feel like, okay, the Mets can pitch, they can hang around. Edwin Diaz is leading that bullpen. But the question is going to be the offense. They are playing with a ton of momentum. They're going into the series against the Braves in totally different spots than they were in 2022 when they came in and blew that series, let Atlanta take the NL East. But I think it's hard to envision a deep run for the Mets. It's hard to envision them winning the World Series without a guy like Francisco Lindor. He had so much value, not just offensively, but with what he's able to do in the field,

that I think it's going to show up, whether it's in the lineup or in a big error. I think he has to be contributing to the Mets for them to go deep. But otherwise, I think this is a better team than people realize. They're pesky, their lineup is very good, very deep, especially with Lindor in it. And like I said, their pitching has really been what's carried them over this stretch for a long stretch. And I think that they're a team that could upset a lot of teams if they get in. They've got that juju going that a couple teams do.

You know, if arrows are pointing up on some teams, arrows pointing down on some teams, that could upset a lot of teams if they get in. They've got that juju going that a couple teams do. You know, if arrows are pointing up on some teams, arrows pointing down on some teams, the arrows are up on a team like the Mets. Yeah, I mean, much better vibes than we're accustomed to as we've talked about. I think because of Lindor's value, both in the field and at the plate,

it's a big deal if he's there or not. But I think their lineup, their depth is good. I'm more on the side that this is an underrated lineup. Pete Alonso didn't have the ultra mega power season people were expecting, still been 25% better than league average. Vientos has been great. They got a lot of guys at or above that average mark. So I think they are a little more difficult for opposing pitchers to navigate than people give them credit for. I think the thing I'm actually worried about is the starting pitching. I think it's not maybe as bad as Arizona's for a few reasons, one of which being their home park,

but this is the lowest strikeout to walk percentage you're gonna find among starting pitching units that are gonna be in the playoff field if they make it. So I think that could be something that gets them into some higher scoring games than expected in the playoffs. They can hang with other playoff teams with their bats, but then the question comes down to the bullpen too,

where they are gonna be the only bullpen in this postseason if they make it that has a double digit walk rate. So are the free passes from the bullpen going to bite them and will the rotation be good enough? I think my question is there's a little more on the pitching side overall, even if Lindor ends up missing some time in the postseason. I like the vibes though. The vibes are pretty good. It's one of these teams,

the one of these teams where every time there's been a little bit of a lull, they pulled a rabbit out of a hat. Like this whole grimace thing is ridiculous. The OMG thing is ridiculous. Like, and it doesn't feel, every once in a while I feel like when somebody breaks out, like, you know, one of the props and they're like, you know, doing, or, you know, really the stuff at second base, some of that feels forced, honestly. Like, do you ever like watch the Dodgers do the little like thing and they like kind of look like they're okay. Yeah, I got to do the thing. Yeah.

Avoiding a kangaroo court fine or something? And some of those guys. Yeah, almost that way sometimes. But, but, uh, the MET stuff has felt very genuine. Um, I think that the, the sort of breakout of Jose Glazias, who has a, uh, a better WRC plus than Lindor this year. It's amazing. Um, has been really important for them because he's provided depth, but he's also a character that they like.

OMG is his song and they play his song and they debuted it. They even came out and he almost did like a concert. So like they've come up with a real way to kind of reverse LOL Mets and they're weaponizing the good vibes in a way. And it's been pretty cool to watch. It's been very unexpected. I love Eno talking no stats, just vibes. I a way. And it's been pretty cool to watch. It's been very unexpected.

I love Eno talking no stats, just vibes. I love it. I love it. I love it. And also like, you know, some of that stuff is a moving target when it comes to like how good the starting rotation is. Shaman Eye is not the same guy he's been all year recently.

So if he's- McGill as well. Yeah, McGill's been a lot better since he came back up. That's true. Kintana, I mean, the walks have really been limited. Jeremy Hefner there, I think has done a great job as I'll late the vibes, like you said,

it's just about the vibes. The vibes are high. One stat-based thing that's coming out in my article, they have more pitchers that have multiple fastballs than anybody else in baseball. And so they are throwing, you know, and I'm talking about three fastballs. So they're almost all their starters throw three fastballs.

And that's just part of like just throwing everything at hitters and trying to confuse them. We got a big series happening right now between the Mets and the Braves. One of those teams might be on the outside looking and as a result of how this series plays out this week, is the nightmare for the Braves just not getting in at all? I think if they get in, they're still a really dangerous team,

even though they're not quite the same team we saw a year ago. Yeah, I mean, if you, you know, my Mr. Negative hat on, like, you know, you guys, the Braves have Ramon, Laureano, Orlando, or Sia, and and Giovanni Orchella on the left side. And they have a below 50% chance of making the playoffs right now. So what are we even talking about? Um, that's about as negative as I can get because, uh, you know, Gio Orchella has been fine. Ramon Larianno has been fine over the last, uh, month.

The, the Braves have a W, uh, 105 WRC plus. It's not, it's not the great Braves line of the past but you know they've got some people missing they got all the obvious back they now have you know I think one of the top three starting rotations going into the into the playoffs. And even if their bullpen has a 3-7 ERA over the last month or whatever, they've had the best strikeout rate in baseball as a bullpen over the last 30 days. So I would say this is an above average bullpen, if not one of the very best, probably one of the very best two or three starting rotation units going into playoffs. And the offense is actually a little bit underrated in terms of an ability to put together, um, you know, good at bats and, and, and put up a good numbers, despite some of the, the big names that you're looking for on the back of the Jersey's missing.

Matt Olson's got it back together. Sean Murphy's been better. Uh, Michael Harris has been better. Um, and they, and they, you know, he did his, you know, the Anthopolis magic happened again where so lairs been good with them. Larianne has been good with them or shell has been good with them. You know, he always makes sure that he puts together a representative lineup for the push to the to the playoffs. So kudos to Anthopolis. And if they don't make it, you know, it's been a tough year for injuries there. Yeah, impactful injuries up and down.

A bunch of the guys you mentioned, Murphy, Albies, Harris of all missed significant times. So having all those guys back, still having Olson, still having Austin Riley's down, too. So it's just it's like they have weathered a lot and they're still good despite that they're tied for fourth in homers this year. They can still hit the long ball. They have good enough pitching.

They're going to be a problem if they get in. But that's a bigger if than we thought it would be two months ago. They just went under 50% for the first time, like all season, basically, just in this last week. But timing is everything. They got a chance to correct that with that series against the Mets. Brit, here's the question I have for you with the Yankees. Have they closed the gap on the top end teams in the AL postseason field since 2022 when

they were swept by the Astros in the ALCS? It feels like it, though it feels like they need to beat the Astros in October for us to really say that they've got the monkey off their back, right? This is another team like the Padres guys that I felt really nitpicky looking at like their question marks right now because they are meshing on a lot of levels. Like who's their third starter? That feels very nitpicky. Who plays left field?

Notice Alex Verdugo. Does he get, does he lose his job to Dominguez who as we all had wanted to come up a lot earlier? Does he provide a little bit of a spark? What do you do with Marcus Strowman? Does he go in the bullpen? Does he not make the playoff roster? This is a team that I think would have to

go into a slide again, like they had similar to those six brutal weeks earlier this season where they weren't pitching, they weren't hitting, or they'd have to have Aaron Judge go into a prolonged slump because he's such a big part of their offense. For them, I think, to have an early exit, they are made to be a deep playoff team. There is a lot to like about them because, as I said, even if Aaron Judge goes into a slump, you got Juan Soto behind him.

And Juan Soto has always been a guy that even if he's not hitting the ball out of the ballpark, he's getting on base. He's walking. He does such a terrific job working at bats. Some of the best playoff at bats I've ever seen were Juan Soto in 2019 when the Nationals won the World Series. So you're going to see that again. Juan Soto locks in even to another level when it comes to October. You know, obviously the way that the Garrett Cole heads that rotation is a little concerning. What do you do with Clay Holmes in that bullpen?

There could be some problems there because obviously he hasn't been the guy, lost the closer job. Like what do you do there? And does the fact that Holmes isn't Holmes, does some of that depth in the bullpen expose them? This all again feels very nitpicky to me. I think the Yankees are set up really well here. They've distanced themselves from the Orioles. They'd have to go 0 and 6, I believe, to not win the American League East.

So they're going to be in a favorable seating position, and they are locked and loaded to win what has been a much talked about first World Series since 2009. Like, if they don't, I think we start talking about heads rolling because there is no reason with this team that they shouldn't have a deep run in October. It looks really well built. My concerns with the bullpen, I mean, I think with Cole and Rodin looking more like their best versions of themselves in the second half, much closer to it than we've seen at other points this year, that's huge for them as a one-two in the rotation.

Bullpen kind of grades out as league average, but if you're starting pitching can actually give you six innings, you're not as worried about that, right? Your three best relievers by matchup on any given day might be good enough. I think that's if there's a unit that looks like it could fail the Yankees, that's the group, but it's not a bad bullpen. It's kind of close to average. I actually think that some of the sort of shifting of seats in that bullpen might suit them for the playoffs. I think one thing that's being missed in the sort of discourse in New York is, you know,

there's a lot of like all clay homes is bad, you know, and I know he's not. He's a really good pitcher. What he doesn't do is strike out as many guys because part of what he has is like a power sinker, right? So in some ways, he's a little bit more like a Grattle Raw or a Trinen or you know, like a super sized version of Tyler Rogers even where it's like he's going to get really bad contact and what happened to him this year was Allowing a little bit too much contact not great defense things happening 13 blown saves

I get it But if he's your setup man It makes so much more sense because Luke Weaver comes out and strikes out a third of the batters he sees, you know, and gets, you know, is your more power closer like kind of typical kind of setup. So if you have Clay Holmes coming in with men on base in the eighth, cleaning that up with the double play and then going to Luke Weaver for the save, it might actually be a better way to use your your asset.

So I think it's still and it's also a bullpen that's going to benefit from the addition of Clark Schmidt and Nestor Cortez or Stroman and Nestor Cortez. Stroman is another guy that can get you a ground ball when you need it. Cortez is, you know, if he's reduced to being a lefty, he's a crafty lefty, like the craftiest lefty. So I think this is another one of those situations where, you know, there's been some flaws over the course of the season that will be papered over a little bit by, you know,

the skinning of the staff in the postseason. There are a couple of things with the Yankees this season that kind of jump off the page to get road records. They're 50 and 31 on the road. It's fantastic. They're 61 and 42 against teams above 500. That's the best record in baseball. They get the best run differential in the league. I mean, they're very well built, complete team that has legitimate

World Series aspirations. And yeah, there will be disappointment if they don't at least get to the World Series. I think that's probably the bar for this club as it is built. Maybe we owe an apology to the next club, the Guardians. They won the AL Central. We all doubted them. Then we doubted them again. And if you want to apologize, the floor is yours for that. But I'm guessing the apology is going to be followed by some more mean things that are going to feel very similar to the mean things that you know, said about the Brewers about 20 minutes ago.

Copy and paste that in and just change the name. I'll leave the apologies for later because the Guardians are who we thought they were. In the first half they they were a team that we Oh, hey, this is a 170 ISO team. Uh, they finally found the power. This is the team that's going to put it all together. Oh, well, look what happened in the second half. A 148 ISO, they went from a 410 slugging to a 378 slugging. In the second half, they are a 91 WRC plus, better encapsulated than Stephen Kwan who had a 525 slugging in the first half and a 284 in the second half.

This is a paper tiger of a team. And also I'm sorry this is a much better team than we expected it to be. And, uh, uh, yes, they, they deserve, they deserve their flowers for what they've done. Uh, Steven vote is I think doing a great job there with a bunch of young players. Uh, yes, their best foot forward is making contact. I do believe that, um, you know, some of these players have made some strides when it comes to, uh, power and that they figured some things out. Even their second half power levels are better than last year's powerful year power levels. Adding Lane Thomas was a decent thing to be done.

Jose Ramirez might be the most underrated superstar in our league. I mean, just a really consistent player. John's John's Kenzie Noel is actually a power hitter, a regular swing and miss type power hitter, and they found room for him. And, you know, Kalman Zardo is hitting walk off. So, you know, this is a better offense that they've had in the past. Annoyingly, the starting staff is not, you know, your typical Cleveland starting staff. But I think in Tanner Bybee and Gavin Williams, they've got two guys that can go one, two.

And in the third game, Lively, Boyd, Cobb, whoever it's going to be, just needs to get to that excellent, excellent bullpen that's not just a manual class A, but also should be, maybe won't be a rookie of the year candidate. And Kate Smith, 25 year old with a 196 ERA supported by a 36% strikeout rate. So they have a great bullpen. They make contact, they play good defense, the power's a little better than usual, and the rotation's a little bit worse than usual. I can't put them among one of the favorites for the World Series, but you could see how it might happen.

They get just enough pitching, they make a ton of contact, and that's how they make it there. The Brewers in a different uniform, the slight difference being they don't strike out as much, but they don't do as much damage either. Like the lineups are built slightly differently. The crazy thing about this bullpen, they have a 199 batting average against. It's the lowest we've seen from any team

going back to at least 1999. I went back to 1999 because your friendly neighborhood podcast host was a pimply-faced teenager back then and now he's a man, he's 40. So it's been a long time so we've seen a bullpen this good. The ERA, 261 for the bullpen, more than a half run better than the league's second best bullpen by ERA, it's been the Brewer's so far.

The K minus BB percentage for the bullpen is tied for 26th out of 780 bullpens going back to 1999. So that's a really good relief core. I think the questions about the back end starters are very real. It's not quite as bad as Arizona's rotation in the back, but it's a problem. So they can get over it because they can use five or six relievers in a game and not give up that much. That's the part of the Guardians roster that's a little bit different than the Diamondbacks roster and makes them a pretty dangerous team.

I can't believe I doubted a team that's so similar to the team that I watch every single day. That's where I feel shame. Yes, and slightly better. Yes, their bullpen is better. Their bullpen is better. They're the same team in so many ways, just in terms of how they do it, how often they're doubted, having flaws, but getting over the flaws. And then, you know, who knows what happens in

October, right? The Rays, same kind of build most times. I should be able to see it. That's the part that's frustrating for me. I shouldn't have missed on this one. Let's talk about the Astros. Are there concerns beyond Jordán Álvarez's knee, which became a problem over the weekend. Yet my concern, and I think, you know, already said this is, are they good? Like they're they're not the juggernaut Houston Astros that we've seen for years and years, right? They started off just miserably. I think they lost to the White Sox at one point in time, which as we mentioned, like this next level kind of stuff, you shouldn't be lost to the White Sox at one point in time, which as we mentioned, like just next level kind of stuff. You shouldn't be losing to the White Sox. And there's a lot of concerns for me beyond Jordan's knee. One, I think you look at this team, you're

like, where does Justin Verlander slot in? What do we do with him? Right? Is he going to be a dependable postseason starter for you? He's had ups, he's had downs. He's been a bit of a concern. They've had a lot of unheralded guys kind of step up. Then they've also had their fair share of injuries. And if not for Seattle's collapse, which we're going to get to later, this was another situation where they shouldn't have had a chance here.

Similar to the Tigers, the division should have been over. But because of the way Seattle has played, it kind of left this opening for a Houston team that in my mind has a lot of warts. This isn't the lineup top to bottom that we've seen from World Series Championships. They're not quite as star-studded. They're not quite as dangerous.

So can they get in? Yeah, absolutely, they're gonna get in, right? They're gonna be playing. We're going to be in Houston again for the 885th time in a row in October. I feel like it should have brought property down there about 10 years ago, would have paid for itself already. But can they go deep?

I have a hard time seeing how they're going to go deep. The rotation's been pretty good, I think, outside of some concerns about Verlander. They found ways to win, They're kind of gritty. I just don't see how they, you look at the Yankees. This has to be the year that the Yankees are better than them, that the Yankees beat them. Now, does the postseason experience matter for guys like Bregman and Altuve

and like all these guys who just play until November every year? Yeah, certainly that's a factor. Certainly they always play really well in Houston, especially in the playoffs. So they are dangerous for that reason. Just on paper, I don't see how this team wins the World Series this year.

I think this is the end, the beginning of the end of the dynasty of the Astros. Yeah, it's like, it's hard. I think we've buried them too early a couple of times. And so I wanna be careful. I mean, if Tucker's gonna be healthy and Yaron Alvarez is healthy, they still have a real prime heart of the order.

If you rerack this season and had a fully healthy season and one of their peak seasons, Tucker Alvarez could be their Soto judge in a way. I have that much respect for Alvarez as a hitter. I think he's judging in his own in his own way. And so, you know, they do have some premium stuff. I really thought the Kikuchi deal was a great a great deal for them. So in terms of their top three, I don't think this is a below average starting rotation.

In fact, I think it's, you know, one of the best four or five in the in the in the playoffs. So, you know, one of the best four or five in the, in the, in the, in the playoffs. So, um, you know, maybe some questions in the bullpen. It's really hard to like nail down what your question, like what exactly the questions are. I have that general sort of feeling about the Astros where I'm not as, I'm not going to circle them as like, you know, world series contenders as I often do, but they could be. I mean, it's, there's no, no real obvious flaws. I don't think. I wouldn't write them off.

Kikuchi has been great since the trade hundred Brown's been great really since that bad April from Breville. Des has been excellent all season. If those are your first three, you're fine. If Furlanders you're four, if you get nothing out of Verlander, Arigetti or Blanco could be your four, your bullpen is good enough and deep enough to take care of business behind those other three starters. Fromber pitches six plus on a regular basis too.

So having a guy like that up top also helps take a little pressure off if bullpen depth isn't as good. I agree with your overall assessments that I don't think they're elite elite the way they were for most of this run, but still good enough to be a problem. I mean, they're what sixth in way they were for most of this run, but still good enough to be a problem.

I mean, they're what sixth in WRC plus as a team that's with Tucker missing a lot of time. That's not a line up you want to face. They still don't strike out a lot. They have that experience similar to the Phillies and the Dodgers. And if we give all those other teams credit for that experience, we have to give it to the Astros because they're always, as Britt said, playing all the way through October and just they're a problem. There's just no way around that.

How about the Orioles? They are a problem. They just are. You're hot speaking of problems. So we talked about them a little bit last week or two weeks ago and it's easy to have the sky's falling mentality when your worst stretch comes at the end of the season. It's going to be a theme of these last few teams, a lot of bad stretches for a couple of them

that we're gonna get to. But take the macro view. What's the actual concern with the Orioles as they're constructed right now? Where do you lose sleep as an Orioles fan, you know? I mean, I suppose I'm flipping your request on its head and just being like, you know, what if the second half Baltimore Orioles are the real Orioles, you know, and you know, they've hit two eighteen

300 364 in the last 30 days and Yes, that's without Jordan Westberg, but it is with most of the rest of that lineup and You know even guys like Ryan Hoher, who was like a total fine for them, you know, has not been playing well. And Colton Cowser, even in sort of one of his better stretches, he's been white hot and then super cold. He's been more of a league average type guy than a real standout. The only player who's been there all year for them, been really productive all year is Gunnar Henderson. You know, when we talk about these other lineups, we talk about dynamic duos or a heart of an order or, you know,

you know, we you know, when we talk about the best lineups to talk about, oh, they don't even really have holes. I mean, this is more of a lineup where you're saying, who is Gundor Henderson's Batman? I mean, Robin to his Batman, you know? Like, who's his number two? Like, what is the heart of the order there? I mean, that's what you start to wonder about. And then if you kind of take that same mentality,

and this is, of course, whatever the opposite of rose colored glasses is, you can kind of see like over the last 30 days well their rotation is you know is 11th and there's I mean their bullpen is 11th and their starting rotation is 13th like this there's no there's no part of the Orioles that's running well right now. And exactly what I was going to say. And if you look at if you look at if you look at, you know, OK, well, they've been missing guys like, you know, Westbrook is going to be a big deal and Grayson Rodriguez is going to be a big deal.

Well, you need those guys because I don't want Albert Suarez or Dean Kramer necessarily starting a postseason game for me and You know pushing Eflin even to third and having Grayson in there in the top two that would make me feel better if I have Jordan Westberg You know and and Kauser and Santander then I can kind of see okay There's a heart of the order Westberg Henderson Kauser Santander Mullins has been better. That's five Henderson, Kauser, Santander, Mullins has been better. That's five. It'll have slightly more holes than some other ones because Eloy Jimenez has not been good

and Ranan Haran has not been good. And we've talked a lot about Adley Rutchman. So, you know, there's gonna be holes in this lineup. But if they can put together five really solid batters and three really solid starters, the bullpen's okay. Like everything just started to look okay after what we thought was an amazing first half. Is it wrong?

I see similarities in the way their lineup is built to the way the Mets lineup is built, where eight or nine guys in the lineup might have a WRC plus of 100 or better. And then you have the very top end, Gunnar Henderson is more productive than Lindor. So you get a little more ceiling from him. And you get a couple of guys that are 20 or 30 percent better that if they're going, then you then you're good. Then you're balanced. Right.

It's been it's so easy to look at the recent form and be worried because the prolonged stretch. I get it. But if you just pull back and look and say, OK, right. For the full season, nine guys over the Santander season, very underrated. He's doing what Mark Vientos is doing, but maybe even like a notch above in some ways because he did

it all year. Guys, they've been under 500 since July, though. This isn't a stretch. This is an entire half. This isn't like they played so well in the first half that that makes their second half look a little better, right? But unlike some of these other teams we're going to talk about, you know, Royals losing seven in a row or whatever, they have been under 500 in the second half. So this is a really long period of time that I think you worry.

I think with a young team, you're concerned because this is the group that went in last year after winning the American League East 101 wins and got swept from Texas, right? That's on their minds. The offense completely disappeared. The whole team cratered. Well, they've been playing like that team the whole second half of the season. So as you know, said the bullpen has to get going. The rotation has to be better and the lineup has to turn around. So it's not just one thing. All of these things have to be better for them to not lose the wild card round. And so I think that's where you're a little concerned, right? Like, if Adley Retchman is hurt and he's not himself, do you even pitch to Gunnar Henderson as another team?

Or do you walk him every single time? Because there's literally nobody else has been doing anything. You know, you watch their recent series against the Tigers, and the Tigers just do everything a little bit better. You know, the Orioles just look like a flat team, where they're constantly in the hole 2-0, 3-0, and their offense can't swing out of it. So, you know, you look at their schedule,

and I think if they get a couple games in the regular season, where they just pummel a team eight runs, seven runs, and they play the Yankees, so this probably isn't going to happen over the next three games, I think it would help them a lot. But if they go limping like this into the playoffs, I have a real hard time seeing them go that far, especially because very quietly, Corbin Burns has had a little bit of a dip in his performance as well. So it hasn't just been, you know, it hasn't just been one guy or one thing.

I think that the culmination of things is what worries me the most. There's not one thing we're hoping is turning around. It's the entire team we're hoping turns around. Yeah, it's a few facets where things have not been going well for the Orioles more recently, but I have a hard time looking at them on paper and be like, ah, it's all broken. It's broken right now.

It's fixable, but time is not on their side. Big Series could be the last one of the season against the twins. Every game might matter for both of those clubs for a variety of different reasons. Here's another here's your next. Is this team actually good club? The Tigers, I mean, if they get in, they'd be playing with house money. I feel like a team that doesn't even expect to be in the postseason is extra dangerous because they're just like, well, no one thought we'd be here.

So let's just go out there and relax. But what are your concerns? Like they're playing great right now. They've even put themselves in this position. They played well while a bunch of teams that were in playoff spots have struggled for prolonged stretches. But what are your real concerns about the Tigers if they are in fact a playoff team this year, Britt? Well, I think the obvious thing if we're taking the macro approach is that they simply run out of gas. I mean, this was a team that sold at the deadline was kind of expecting to call this a lost year.

And then all of a sudden goes on a tear over their 26 and 11 in their last 37 games. So I think the, the issue with a team like this, where they're pitching really well, where their young guys are playing really well. Is all the sudden do they just hit the skids right does the offense disappear to the young guys get exhausted right as you get deeper into the season it's a real concern with teams that are younger is how much left to these guys have right as we're pitching past innings limits i can guarantee you. past innings limits, I can guarantee you the Tigers front office weren't planning on these guys getting reps in October. Now that's a legitimate possibility. So I think from the macro version, you're wondering, are they going to hit the skins?

Is the momentum going to run out on them? But honestly, I like a lot of what they're doing. They call it Jackson Joe, one of the top prospects in all of baseball pitching wise, because they're going all in here. Their young starters have been really good. Riley Green has been terrific. You look around at this team and they have found ways to win.

They are the hottest team in baseball pretty much. So, AJ Hinch, I think has done a great job instilling in these young guys. Like, stay focused, win each game at a time. He's really been the ideal manager for such a run that they're on right now. But again, this is a team that traded away Jack Flaherty and traded away pieces that could help them in October. And you wonder at a certain point, is that going to bite them? Because,

as I mentioned, they played really well over their last almost 40 games. Well, the previous 120 or so, or the previous 100 was the reason why Scott Harris and the Tiger's front office said, eh, not this year. Right? So what you're looking at is maybe the most interesting team. That's a good point. Like they looked at their own team and said, not good enough. Yes.

Not now. Even with the third wild card. So I think what you're looking at is like, this is a team that could get so hot. They could get in, turn the tables, win the World Series, and we'd all be like, oh my God. Or they can get swept out of the wild card and we're like ah fun run but they just ran out of steam like that to me is the Detroit Tigers and I'm sure you guys have all kinds of numbers and stats to back it up but for me this is like a field team this team has been feeling it they've been the epitome of good juju and just a matter of like are they gonna keep riding that gravy

gravy train or are we gonna start to see you know keep riding that gravy train? Or are we gonna start to see, you know, some of that young pitching tire out? Are we gonna see some of the guys who have been terrific offensively go into slumps? You know, it really is going to depend. Like they're baseball Cinderella right now. Yeah, it's true. The Jack Flaherty trade though, one thing that's kind of missing for them is a shortstop of the future and, you know, um, you know, taking Javier Baez out of that lineup and putting Trey Sweeney

in has been, you know, a big net win for them. And so you don't really maybe have this run. If you don't have you don't make that trade. So it's a it's a it's a conundrum for sure. Also, I mean, kudos for a hinge to take a young team that sold the deadline and not fall into some of the stuff that we've seen in other club houses where the club houses are yelling about ownership in like very like obviously upset about trades that have been made. This Tiger, I didn't hear much from this Tigers team in terms of like, Oh, woe is me. They just sort of, um, came out and, and, and played well afterwards. Also, you know, Torkelson, you know, take his demotion and stride coming back and playing better. Uh, Colt Keith,

kind of being terrible at the beginning of the year. And to me saying, even that he was domed up, um, up and then and then finding a way through that. Like I think that I think you're right that Hinch has kind of managed these young guys pretty well and Parker Meadows was so bad before the demotion and so good after. So you know there's there's a lot about this team kind of you know we talk about punches in the mouth today. This team took a punch in the mouth early when a lot of the young players weren't as good as they thought they were. Um, and all, all three of those young players that we were kind of circling, um,

got up off the mat, you know? So that's, I think that's a real fun part about this, uh, for the tigers. What's also interesting is they get a spoiler series matchup. They get three against the Rays at home, which the Rays I think are the kind of team that can be a little bit of a problem if you're the Tigers, but the White Sox are the opponent for the final series of the regular season for the Tigers.

So if they could take two of three from the Rays, then they're in great shape to hold the spot they have right now. If the playoffs start today, they'd be in, which is just impossible to believe based on where this team was just a couple of months ago. Let's talk about the Royals. They're among the teams that actually are below 500

against 500 teams. A lot of criticism around the AL Central clubs is that they beat up on the White Sox and then against everybody else, they're just kind of okay. Recent form has not been kind to the Royals, but we loved this team just a couple of weeks ago. So what are we actually worried about with the Royals as things stand today? You know, well, you know, this isn't the first losing streak

they've been on this season, and it is a very bad time because they've lost seven in a row and just the end of August, they lost seven in a row as well. And the same thing has happened in both cases in those seven losses before they averaged just about two and a half runs per game. In this last seven runs, seven games, they've been doing the, averaging about two runs per game. It's the offense. The offense is the big question mark in Kansas City. Over the last 30 days, you thought the Baltimore slash line was bad. Try out the Royals 218-283-353 line. Only the White Sox have been worse as a lineup in the last 30 days.

And, um, it's not, you know, it's not Bobby wit, uh, you know, he's been fine. He's been great. Salvador Perez still there, but all the like role players that they went and got the Alex Anthopolis group, uh, has not kind of worked out for them. Um, you know, Adam Frazier has a 44 WRC plus. Tommy Pham has been below 100 with them. And Paul DeYoung has a 45 WRC plus with the Royals of the last 30 days. So, you know, there's been a real sort of it's Bobby W wit or Sal Perez or nobody in that lineup right now. And I think when we talk about the sort of ratio to studs, to holes in a lineup,

they probably have the worst ratio of any team that might make the playoffs and just don't have that offensive depth. Now, to switch over to to look at it more positively, you know, Michael Massey could be look at it more positively, you know, Michael Massey could be better. Tommy Pham is, you know, he's not gonna walk 3.7% of the time going forward. Like he's usually a guy who walks, so like, you know, that should be working. And Jay Melendez has actually been usable recently. So they do have pieces that could get it together. They would have

done better to go get Jorge Saler, Ramon Larianno and you know Gio Arcello. That's what that's what you're kind of judging them against in the open market in terms of usable guys but another thing to to to to be more positive about them is like. like there are more similarities to past Royals teams that have, um, one at all, even where they have their two kind of stud hitters. It's Sal Perez again. It was Sal Perez last time, but they have Sal Perez and, um, and Bobby Witt Jr. and some credible other guys and their rotation is really good. And their bullpen is really good. I mean, you last 30 days, full season, whatever you want to talk to,

whatever you want to look at, sort of top three rotation, top five, top six bullpen. This has been this is a team fueled by pitching and they just got to get to like, they just got to get to three runs a game or four runs a game. If they can get there, they'll get out of this Schneid. But right now, you know, it's between them or the twins for the last spot, right? And it's, I can't actually tell you. I said, going into these play-offs, playoff this last month that I wasn't sure there's anything really other than

Braves Mets. And, uh, the third wild card in the AL has, has proved me wrong. I mean, there's, there's some teams that are just going to back into the rotate, back into the playoffs if they do it. We're going to get into those two, aren't we? Those are the two we have left. Even the way the Royals have played at the very end kind of puts them into this bucket, too. So you can sneak in or you can back in.

And I would wonder, I've never, I got to look back at this. Like how much does your form matter in the last two weeks, last four weeks? What correlation, if any, is there between how you played throughout the final month, the second half and winning in the playoffs? Because it's like a new season. Like the slate is wiped clean.

And I think that's where a lot of our concerns about some of these teams can just be completely erased. Like, hey, we made it, we survived. When you put up a thing like they're 47 or 55 against 500 teams, what I see is, well, 500 plus teams have good pitching, right? So that's what really neutralizes them. They neutralize their lineup

and get it down to just two batters, basically, they have to worry about. They're very similar to the Guardians lineup on paper. And I think I trust the Royals starters more than the Guardian starters as a group, but the Guardians have that great bullpen. So it's just another team that does a few things well, has a couple of weaknesses.

I trust the Guardians line up depth better. Like the fifth and sixth best, the fifth and sixth best bats in Cleveland are probably better than the fifth and sixth best bats in Kansas City. Yeah. Yeah, maybe. Which brings us to the Twins,

which have basically the same kind of problems, right? Right, I mean, long run of bad form, right? So beyond that, what's not working for them? of problems, right? Right. I mean, long, long, long run of bad form, right? Like, so beyond that, like, what's what's not working for them? Like, what is the flaw of this team beyond recent form? Oh, the flaw is they've been playing poorly since August 18th, which again, we're not talking about at least with the Royals. It was like, it's been a bad week. They can check it off. It's been about two weeks, whatever, you know, the twins, though, the lineup's been in a death spiral as as we've seen

There's some great stats. I mean they're 23rd out of 30 teams since August 18th and scoring You know we've seen how they've gone from basically a lock to all of a sudden fighting for the playoffs I've seen Rocco Baldelli trying to make compassion speeches people talking about him being on the hot seat right fans Complaining that the payroll was slashed, which is rightfully so. But the pitching guys has been brutal since that August 18th. They are 27th in ERA at a 4.67. They're dead last in wind probability. Like they just have not been good for over a month, like closer to what, a month and a half now. And as you mentioned, they're playing an Ori, they're playing the Orioles, so their schedule, it's not like they've got, you know, they don't have the White Sox looming,

they don't have any gimmies here, and they haven't played well even when they've had these easier teams. So you wonder with a team like that, if they get in, and they're playing well, they're a good team. You, you, I think the two of you picked them to win the division. And we're pretty steadfast even a few weeks ago that they were still gonna rebound and be that team because the pieces are there. We just haven't seen those pieces perform well. And you wonder if they don't make it what heads are going to roll because it's teams like that,

the underperformance for that long that almost always requires some kind of change because fans clamor for it. So I think your concerned with them is the same as the orioles they have to turn around the hitting that the turn around the pitching there there's a lot of facets that have to go right for them. What if they find that good brand of baseball again. And as you mentioned, Derek, like, does it matter how they play? No. Remember the Rangers last year blew the AL West? And the Houston Astros had their big like, oh, I guess we'll never find out what happens when they blew the division,

the Rangers last year. They had to start on the road. They had a terrible uphill postseason schedule. And people said, well, their bullpen is shaky, and they've been playing terrible. Then they turn the tables and go to the World Series. So if I'm like half the teams on this list, I'm looking at that and saying,

all right, nothing matters, we just have to get in. And that should be the twins rallying cry too. Like forget the rally sausage, it should be like, nothing matters, let's just get in. Do not forget the rally sausage because the rally sausage is gonna be very important for this team up to this point. But they're second in strikeout minus walk rate

for a starting rotation again. That's phenomenal, that's great. So even with that recent form you pointed out, it's like hit reset and you have good enough pitching to win in the post season. They don't strike out as much as they have in years past. They've sort of traded power for more contact. Maybe that gives them more balance.

That was one of the critiques we had of the twins in recent years. Yeah, they used to be like a barrel rate leading team Yeah, barrel barrel machine, but tons of swing and miss that came with it So they've maybe found a better path to a similarly above average offense Maybe it's a little more sustainable against top-level pitching. It's more of a wait-and-see and the schedule makers Unknowingly did the twins a favor I think because their last six games are at home

They get the Marlins for three before they get the Orioles for three. It's almost like here, here are your three layups to get some confidence, some momentum back. Now, here's a playoff caliber team that's also struggling. If you can beat these teams, you will be in much better shape going into the postseason than you have been for the last six weeks. I just want to say that if if if they don't make it in and Rocco Baldelli is the one that, you know, serves the brunt of that, that fact, I would I would feel sad about it because,

you know, I look at the fact that they slashed, you know, 30, 30 plus million dollars off the off the roster going into the season and didn't keep spending up and then, you know, very did very little at the play at the trade deadline. I think Trevor. Current theme, recurring theme. Yes, it deserved to be criticized for that again, because that was a bad deadline for the twins.

And it just, you know, like they're going to be like, oh, it's Rocco's fault. And, you know, they're like, well, you know Could you give could you give Rocco 30 million dollars of players, please? You know that he didn't have this year that he minded that you could that you've shown in the past you can afford so, I mean, I think that's That would be a sad outcome. So You know, this is it is weird for me because I'm usually like all they barrel they came on its BB. I love them They don't barrel as much anymore and they've always came minus BB, but also given up homers, uh, as a staff.

So there's, uh, there's some, some flaws in the sort of the foundation for me. They also don't play great defense behind that pitching either. So like they're great in K minus BB, but they give some of it back because the defense grades out below average. And I think that was sort of bound to happen if you're going to give Carlos Correa like a big deal to be there for a long time as a shortstop with, you know, bad wheels basically. And then in Byron Buxton is pretty good center fielder, but you know, you don't know what you get, how many times you're going to have them out there. So that's, you're already

sort of not so great up the middle. One more team to get to, the Mariners and. Can't believe we're discussing. They're still there, they're still hanging around. On the screen, if you're watching on YouTube, it says it'd be a shame to waste this pitching because it's elite starting pitching. They're number one in K minus BB percentage for the rotation and the bullpens wobbled a little bit at times

But by skills still very good. They're sixth in K minus BB So I think as far as a playoff unit would go they would be very good at preventing runs But I think I know where you're gonna be worried here, you know Is it gonna be the lineup and the strikeout rate in particular? I mean a twenty six point nine percent It's the worst in the league. It's awful. You know what? I'm not going to do the whole negative stick. It's the Mariners, dude. Like, you know, they don't need more negativity.

Just, just wander into Mariners Twitter. There's a lot of negativity in there. If you want to know why they're going to be terrible, uh, I'm going to let you hang out there and, and soak it all in. I'm just go straight to be terrible. I'm going to let you just hang out there and soak it all in. I'm just go straight to the positive. Yeah, the Seattle, you know, the Seattle offense has been above league average for the season and is the best offense in the last 30 days.

Oh, so for all these teams that were crushing for not playing well for the last couple of weeks, the last 30 days, there's one that's actually hitting at the right time. Yeah. And this is how they've gotten. Seattle's hung around. This is how they got back in. Yeah. And and, you know, for all of, you know, the belly aching about Julio Rodriguez's season, we talked about how he just goes white hot at times. He has a 173 WRC plus over the last 30 days.

Victor Robles, 229. Justin Turner, who does not necessarily look like a baseball player to me, has a 152 WRC plus Brandi Rosalina, 143. Cal Rowley is there, uh, doing, doing business at 121. JP Crawford's been league average. Jorge Polanco hasn't quite got it going yet, but you know, they're starting to look like they have representative hitters. And yes, it would be a shame to waste the starting rotation and the bullpen, which I

think if they make it into playoffs would be best second best overall pitching staff. I mean, you know, you can put them up against anybody. So they just need to score. The issue is, yeah. And they don't own any of the tiebreakers against the Tigers because of all the losing they did early in the season. So they're really facing kind of an uphill battle. It's, you know, what I'd love guys is to take their pitching, put it in Arizona's lineup.

Let's make a super team. That would be pretty sexy. Like unbelievable, right? They give them the trophy now, but you know, I don't want to pile on them either. They've had a rough year. Their manager was fired. Yeah. You know, they're a nice story pitching wise, what they've done developmentally. I think a lot of teams aspire to do what they've done on the pitching front. Have yet to figure out the hitting side of things, kind of the opposite of developmentally. developmental adding what the Orioles have done and what people have lauded them for.

A bit of a long shot, but because of the way the Royals and Twins have tanked, they're still hanging around. They're still in it. And how crazy would it be, guys, if the Tigers and Mariners were the AOL wild card? After all of this, it is still very possible. What is their schedule here? The Royals and Twins are in such a very possible. What is their schedule here? The Royals and Twins are in such a slump. What do they have left?

They have- They started the series with the Astros. They won game one of the series on Monday. It's only a three game or it's in Houston. So two games left there and they host the A's for three to close it out. The A's are not the same layup as facing the White Sox, but better than facing a team that will be in the postseason.

Yeah, the who? Yeah, that's not bad. You said the Royals get the Marlins or the Tigers get the Marlins? The Twins get the Marlins. Right, that's what he said. So it's almost like- They get the Orioles. Royals.

Almost like all of the four of these teams have one easy series and one harder series. Think so. What is Kansas City? It has the Nationals and then the Braves, so yeah, same kind of thing. Though Atlanta, they couldn't be out by then, right? They'd still be alive at least going into the start of the series. So basically, the order of business for all these guys is, you know, do well against the bad teams and then do just good enough against the good teams to be bad on the other guys and don't go on six.

That will not work. Yeah. Yeah. Well, we clearly don't like to play the villain, but hopefully we had a little fun with this. Yeah. I was like, this feels really mean. It seemed like a good idea in the meeting. This's like, come on, this isn't our vibe. But it's the reality. It's like, what do people worry about if you're a fan of these teams?

Like, you know your team's pretty good, but like, what's the thing that could get them bounced? That was the whole goal. It wasn't to just throw shade at every single team that could be in the postseason this year. On our way out the door, a reminder, you can get a subscription to The Athletic for $2 a month for the first year at theathletic.com slash rates and

barrels. That's going to do it for this episode of Rates and Barrels. We're back with you on Friday. Thanks for listening. College football is back like never before. I'm David Ubbin and I host Until Saturday, the athletics leveled up college football podcast. Three times a week, you'll hear me and my co-host fellow athletics senior writer Chris Finini and two-time national champion Damien Harris embrace the sports new madness with you. We're also

just gonna have a ton of fun enjoying all the things that make college football great. Check out the brand new one till Saturday every Monday, Wednesday and Thursday this fall. You can find us wherever you listen to your podcasts.